Today’s CBO Report
[guest post by Dana]
Fresh post needed, so very pressed for time…
Today the Congressional Budget Office released an updated score for the American Health Care Act, which I believe very few on the right are really happy about as it is nowhere near the promised full-repeal of Obamacare. However, if you read big media outlets, the CBO news is not just bad – it’s dire. That’s because everyone from Sen. Elizabeth Warren to Business Insider to NPR to the New York Times to the Washington Post are focused on a specific claim that the plan would leave an additional 23 million people uninsured.
Over at the Daily Wire, readers are provided with a bit of clarification about the 23 million number being bandied about, as well as offering some good news in the midst of the bad.
First off, it’s important to know that the CBO is measuring its estimated number of insured against the flawed March 2016 estimates; as Phil Kerpen points out, the CBO itself “acknowledged” that they were off by 5 million people in that estimate.
It’s also worthwhile noting here that the number of uninsured would grow because most people would stop buying insurance without the threat of government fine; the study also considers those who buy certain types of catastrophic insurance “uninsured.” Still, the CBO estimates that by 2026, “an estimated 51 million people under age 65 would be uninsured.”
A little good news:
The AHCA Would Lower The Deficit. According to the CBO:
[O]ver the 2017-2026 period, enacting H.R. 1628 would reduce direct spending by $1,111 billion and reduce revenues by $992 billion, for a net reduction of $119 billion in the deficit over that period. The provisions dealing with health insurance coverage would reduce the deficit, on net, by $783 billion; the noncoverage provisions would increase the deficit by $664 billion, mostly by reducing revenues.
In short, the government would spend less money on Medicaid grants, but the spending to reduce premiums would count against those savings, as well as loss of revenue from fines (good) and repeal of taxes (also good).
Final thoughts:
[T]he bill is revenue neutral, so it can be passed through reconciliation. It gives both sides their talking points: Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) is already touting the statement that premiums could drop and that it will save the government money; Democrats are already touting the drop in number covered as well as the possible effects on the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Not much has changed here. But both sides will now retrench politically as the Senate considers moving forward.
Read the whole thing here.
(Cross-posted at The Jury Talks Back.)
–Dana
Hello.
Dana (023079) — 5/24/2017 @ 4:44 pmthe CBO is ever bit as corrupt incompetent and useless as the FBI anymore
we need to fire all these pigs and start over
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/24/2017 @ 4:52 pm*every* bit as corrupt i mean
happyfeet (28a91b) — 5/24/2017 @ 4:53 pmThe ACHA Anthem
http://www.jango.com/music/Loudon+Wainwright+III
Thank you SEE BO!
‘Smellevision Replaces Television.’ – ‘The Old Grey Hare’ – Bugs Bunny, WB, 1944
__________
Breaking News– CNN reports GOP Montana House Candidate body slams reporter.
Injury/ambulance– developing story.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/24/2017 @ 5:20 pmAHCA AKA Trumpcare.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/24/2017 @ 5:21 pmMontana GOP conservative House candidate, physically assaults reporter.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/24/greg-gianforte-bodyslams-reporter-ben-jacobs-montana
“Liberty Valance taking liberties with the freedom of the press?” – Dutton Peabody [Edmond O’Brien] “The Man Who Shot Liverty Valance” 1962
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/24/2017 @ 5:31 pmGreat quotes in health-care reform history:
“If you like your plan you can keep your plan.” – Barack Obama
“You are going to have such great health care at a tiny fraction of the cost, and it is going to be so easy.” – Donald Trump
Dave (189411) — 5/24/2017 @ 5:35 pmThe reconciliation part is the only part of this story that will have any lasting significance. The rest is just chaff for the next few weeks’ two-minutes-of-hate incitement by the Left, and if it wasn’t this, it would have been something else.
Beldar (fa637a) — 5/24/2017 @ 5:44 pmyes, pretty much that, now why the duma doesn’t actually point this out, I’ll never know,
narciso (d1f714) — 5/24/2017 @ 5:47 pm#8… we have a winner!
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/24/2017 @ 5:47 pmDemocrat strategist Pete Petkanas: “First off, we can walk and chew gum at the same time.”
Tucker Carlson: “Really? Where’s the evidence?”
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/24/2017 @ 5:58 pmThe AHCA Anthem.
If you stay in the Right lane, you can harmonize.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uu5hzc2Mei4
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/24/2017 @ 6:10 pmthe previous cbo undercut Obamacare’s enrollment by 50%, if one were a contractor that would make them liable for failure of due diligence,
narciso (d1f714) — 5/24/2017 @ 6:14 pmIt is inevitable the United States will have a two-tiered and/or single payer national healthcare system like the rest of the modern industrialized world by the end of this century. Just in time for all of us to be long dead to take advantage of it.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/24/2017 @ 6:19 pmsome confirmation
http://legalinsurrection.com/2017/05/what-the-cbos-uninsured-score-really-means/#comments
narciso (d1f714) — 5/24/2017 @ 6:33 pmTrump’s budget is actually pretty solid and fulfills his campaign promises.
It also goes after previous budgets for cuts instead of the fake projected budget and then “cutting that” which is really an increase over the previous year.
Yes, we need to cut entitlements, but one step at a time. Get rid of Obamacare before it destroys our nation completely.
NJRob (520017) — 5/24/2017 @ 6:49 pmYou’d be long dead because of it. Just as Ezekiel Emmanuel desired.
NJRob (520017) — 5/24/2017 @ 6:50 pmGet a new mantra, will ya? That old “rest of the modern industrialized” crap don’t float. First off you interpose healthcare with health insurance. If there is any other place you would prefer to get health care name it then by all means go. Secondly, we have a single payer health insurance here it’s called The Veterans Administration. Those who attempt to take advantage of it end up dead.
Why do leftists want the government to become a health insurance company? And why when they “create” a plan do they exempt themselves?
Rev.Hoagie® (630eca) — 5/24/2017 @ 7:05 pmMeanwhile, from CBO reports to FCC reports…
http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/fcc-stephen-colbert-trump-1202442059/
Another nyet for Trump-Chumps…
“This just isn’t your day. Is it.” – James Bond, 007 [Sean Connery] ‘From Russia With Love’ 1963
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/24/2017 @ 7:08 pm@18 =yawn= Mantre this where the sun don’t shine- then go flush yourself:
Hoagie@168. England is finished.
UP yours, Hoagie.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJssyG4fkKc
“Salutee!” – Lurcio [Franke Howerd] ‘Up Pompeii!” BBC TV, 1969
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/23/2017 @ 3:35 pm
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/24/2017 @ 7:16 pmGood news for Montana GOP conservative House candidate and freedom of the press/reporter assaulter Greg Gianforte– ambulance transport and medical care for injuries he inflicted attacking a reporter this afternoon are covered under Obamacare.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/24/2017 @ 7:21 pmThe problem with CBO evaluations is that they are based not on economic orfiscalreality but on assumptions that the member of congress has submitted. So, if the member of congress wants theCBO to assume a growth rate for fiscal 2018 of 100% – that is what the CBO will use in makingit’s calculations.
Michael Keohane (283e20) — 5/24/2017 @ 7:43 pmDear CBO,
Assuming my grandmother had wheels, could I use her as a shopping cart?
Very truly yours,
Congress
Dear Congress,
Yes.
Sincerely,
CBO
Like that, Michael?
nk (dbc370) — 5/24/2017 @ 7:47 pmThe CBO assumes that the individual mandate will work, and the Republican alternative will not work, nn getting people to buy unaffordable health insurance.
It also assumes that without the mandate fewer people will sign up for Medicaid, which is actually correct. Sure, it’s free, sort of [it has clawbacks, at least in principle] , but people searching for other insurance were steered into it, and that will be gone.
Sammy Finkelman (06be8f) — 5/24/2017 @ 8:00 pmExcept it hasn’t by 50%, besides govt accounting shouldn’t be second cousin tobentrail reading.
narciso (d1f714) — 5/24/2017 @ 8:04 pmThere is a contradiction in the Daily Wire:
Are they said by the same person?
It seems like Ben Shapiro first quotes the CBO as saying it would reduce the deficit by $119 billion over a ten year period but them says it would be revenue neutral.
What happened now? Is $10 billion ($10 billion a year) not real money any more? A rounding error? If so, he doesn’t say it.
Sammy Finkelman (06be8f) — 5/24/2017 @ 8:09 pmYes the CBO assumes something already proven to be false.
Sammy Finkelman (06be8f) — 5/24/2017 @ 8:10 pmMaybe they assume as soon as the mandate is enforced, it will happen.
The Republican bill also has something to encourage health insurance purchases (a 30% addirion premium for one year if there is a 3-month gap) but that won;t work either.)
Sammy Finkelman (06be8f) — 5/24/2017 @ 8:12 pmRev.Hoagie® (630eca) — 5/24/2017 @ 7:05 pm
He of the Five Letter Acronym has been saying that for quite some time. It’s not a new thing.
More important, you’re wrong about the VA. It’s not a single payer system (which Medicaid is). It’s a single provider system. The difference is not trivial.The VA reform proposals I have heard of would change it to a single payer system.
kishnevi (413847) — 5/24/2017 @ 8:18 pmApologies for going off-topic, but:
This is a link to video converted from a home movie (no sound) taken during the Longhorn Band’s goodwill diplomatic trip to Peru in 1974, the same year the Longhorn Band marched at halftime of Super Bowl VIII.
U.S. Sec-State Rex Tillerson was a senior engineering student at UT and a Longhorn Band percussion section leader at the time. I started at UT-Austin in June 1975, and he’d graduated that May. But there were tons of people still in LHB who talked about that trip and that performance constantly. It occurred to me tonight to ask, in a Facebook Longhorn Alumni Band group, whether anyone in that group was on the trip was also on that trip, and if so, whether Rex went. And within two minutes, I had a definitive answer, from someone who reports:
Rex started at Exxon right out of UT; before becoming CEO he was head of Exxon’s international operations. But this Peru trip was likely his first experience in international diplomacy. The man is rhythmic and musical, accustomed to delivering no-choke public performances on command — and has been for decades.
So no, it’s no surprise that he’s danced the Sword Dance before.
Beldar (fa637a) — 5/24/2017 @ 8:34 pmCorrection: LHB Peru trip was 1972. But Rex was on it.
Beldar (fa637a) — 5/24/2017 @ 9:09 pmYes, we need to cut entitlements, but one step at a time. Get rid of Obamacare before it destroys our nation completely.
I don’t know. The first year is when the President has the most ability to implement his agenda. Look at Obama, for instance. In the second year, Congresspeople are skittish because House members are all up for reelection. In the third year, the new Congress oftentimes is much less aligned with the President than his his first Congress, and in the fourth year the President is up for reelection and not interested in making any hard choices. After that, the President is a lame duck and mostly interested in his legacy anyway.
Sorry man, but I think this was the year to try for entitlement cuts. Now we’re looking at a really awful budget, GOP version, unless Congress scraps it and starts anew.
JVW (42615e) — 5/24/2017 @ 9:17 pmEasier said than done, unless you want a caracazo? That was the social explosion brovoked by cap when he instituted austerity measures he had opposed during the paign
narciso (d1f714) — 5/24/2017 @ 9:20 pm@16. Trump’s budget is actually pretty solid and fulfills his campaign promises. It also goes after previous budgets for cuts instead of the fake projected budget and then “cutting that” which is really an increase over the previous year.
Put down you glass:
Trump Team Stands by Budget’s $2 Trillion Math Error
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-team-stands-budget-s-2-trillion-math-error-n763996
ROFLMAOPIP. Makes Tom Lehrer’s ‘New Math’ look like Calculus.
Now…
“Have another drink and you’ll feel alright.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/25/2017 @ 1:02 amHave another drink it’ll make you feel better.” – The Kinks, 1975
Mick Mulvaney says it was no error – they did it on purpose.
But wait a second – the question is not whether economic growth will offset tax cuts, the question is whether you can use the same economic growth both to offset the tax cut AND to reduce the deficit.
You can’t just plug in the idea the tax cut will be revenue neutral, and then ADD TO IT the same factor that enabled you to say the tax cut will be revenue neutral in the first place!.
Sammy Finkelman (107dde) — 5/25/2017 @ 12:29 pmEverybody knows that the Executive Budget is not a serious document, but this may be carryng it to he level of farce.
Sammy Finkelman (107dde) — 5/25/2017 @ 12:35 pmThank you kishnevi, I often confuse the two. I’ve been corrected more than once. I must have some sort of mental block about them since I keep getting them wrong.
Rev.Hoagie® (630eca) — 5/25/2017 @ 12:46 pm@35. Mulvaney admitting being purposely stupid is all the more damning, Sammy.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 5/25/2017 @ 3:06 pmMulvaney said there were three choices, and he felt the best choice was to say the tax cut would be revenue neutral – which it would be, provided you assumed economic growth, but you can’t assume the same growth twice and use it again to cut the deficit.
Sammy Finkelman (bc65ac) — 5/26/2017 @ 10:18 amThe Wall Street Journal ran editorials Thursday and Friday about (what’s wrong with) the CBO estimate.
What looks valid is they say:
1) The CBO doesn’t give a range for economic growth. It doesn’t even give a range when estimating how many Governors would ask for waivers. “Who Knows’ is the only honest answer
2. They are counting people as uninsured who don’t have widely recognized comprehensive insurance arguing that they don’t have financial protection for major medical risk but never consider catastrophic to be that.
Sammy Finkelman (6f9f42) — 5/26/2017 @ 2:32 pm