Patterico's Pontifications

12/14/2009

2010: Safe-ish seats, Open seats

Filed under: General — Karl @ 3:35 pm



[Posted by Karl]

Allahpundit notes that the Cook Political report has the number of “likely” Democrat House seats down to 218, to tee up a discussion of recent Democrat retirement announcements like Bart Gordon (D-TN) (where there’s already a top GOP recruit) and Brian Baird (D-WA). 

The ordinarily pessimistic Allahpundit also links to Marc Ambinder, but oddly missed this observation that “the NET number of Democratic congressional retirements is -1.”  Some of the seats being vacated by the GOP (e.g., in Illinois and Delaware) could easily flip, too. 

Ambinder reports that Dems are worried that John Spratt will bail, while the NRCC has an informal list of 17 Dems they would like to push into retirement, while the DCCC has an “early warning system” to try to talk wavering Dems off the ledge.  The GOP can now cross Gordon off their list.

Allahpundit further notes that Dem pollster PPP has the GOP within two on the generic ballot.  Gallup has it at three.  Lefties will cheer that Dems have narrowed the GOP advantage with indies from +22 to +4 in a month.  However, that +22 looks like an outlier.  Nevertheless, the overall polling picture (even at dKos) continues to show Indies moving to the GOP, even if it is only to promote gridlock.

–Karl

11 Responses to “2010: Safe-ish seats, Open seats”

  1. Gridlock gets a bad rap IMHO – seems like what our Founding Fathers actually intended.

    Dmac (a964d5)

  2. Given what we have seen from this Congress and Teh One, gridlock is a damn fine thing.

    JD (560084)

  3. Gridlock is our friend and was in 1995-2001.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  4. There is nothing good about this for the Dems. Their support continues to erode, and the administration shows no sign of gaining traction.

    Obama has almost no political capital left.

    Kevin Murphy (3c3db0)

  5. The only capital Zero has ever had was from Soros.

    highpockets (bb65bc)

  6. From a pure historic average, given the huge majorities enjoyed by the Democrats, anything less than a net switch of 15 in the House and three in the Senate is an epic fail by the GOP.

    I think it’ll be about what the Dems got in 2006 – 26 in the House. I’ll be stunned if there are more than four in the Senate.

    Ed from SFV (1333b1)

  7. Two things that are going to play in the GOP’s favor are:

    First, the big drop in approval rating, especially among independents and middle-class voters, will have them more likely to look at GOP candidates. The “change how Washington works” experiment isn’t looking as good now as it sounded during the election.

    Second, unhappy liberals who when polled are saying they likely won’t vote. The numbers of people that say they will vote in 2010 is dropping fast, especially among young voters and African American voters.

    JHTRazor (a1f2bc)

  8. Don’t get your hopes up, Conservatives. There very well could be many snags in many places. There’s an easy third party solution for the democrats in most districts. They could play a dirty game.

    I’m a huge TEA party fan, having been to several protests. I think they are what’s right. But it’s going to be tricky getting all of the TEA party folks to vote for republicans in all these districts. I hope everyone who wants to see the democrats lose their steamroll before they figure out how to drive it goes ahead and volunteers and supports the Republican they like… starting at the primary.

    Dustin (44f8cb)

  9. Ed,

    At this point, Democrats have to be seriously worried about losing seats in Delaware, Colorado, Connecticut, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota (if Governor Hoeven runs).

    Democrats also have to watch their back and could conceivably lose New York, Illinois, Arkansas, and California.

    I don’t expect a 10 seat Republican gain, but I do believe +4 to +6 is the probable election result in the Senate, with the GOP poised to retake the Senate in 2012.

    As for the House, if the generic ballot is within +4 Democratic, I believe the Republicans will win a majority and John Boehner will become Speaker.

    Dave N. (5458ec)

  10. Dave, and that alone would really make a major difference. A few senators would make a huge difference.

    Dustin (44f8cb)

  11. #8, Dustin, said, “…it’s going to be tricky getting all of the TEA party folks to vote for republicans….I hope everyone who wants to see the democrats lose….supports the Republican they like…”

    The Tea Party Movement isn’t about supporting the GOP, or any political party for that matter, it’s about supporting candidates who uphold the Constitution and who will work for more freedom and more liberty for American citizens and against an expansion of government regulation and against corruption and malfeasance in office.

    The Tea Party’s 3 core values are Fiscal Responsibility, Constitutionally Limited Government, and Free Markets. It is a non-partisan organization and includes mostly Republicans, a high percentage of Independents, and more Democrats than the establishment media wants to acknowledge.

    To portray the Tea Party movement as an appendage of the GOP’s election efforts is to libel the movement and reduce it to the level of a partisan get-out-the-vote organization. That’s not it at all, it’s much more than that.

    The GOP isn’t worthy of support, and neither are the Democrats. Both parties have betrayed us, over and over. Granted, there are fewer treacherous scoundrels in the GOP, but if you look at how some Republicans were quick to stab taxpayers in the back and give Democrats cover for the latest round of earmarking you’ll see there isn’t enough difference between parties to justify loyalty to either one. Both are demonstrably more interested in maintaining the status quo and themselves in power than in representing the interests of the American people.

    The Tea Party Movement seeks to end the tyranny of the professional political class and restore the values enshrined in our Constitution. The next Tea Party will be held on April 15, 2010 in Washington, DC. Be there if you want to be part of something more important than membership in an organized crime family.

    ropelight (5883b5)


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