Patterico's Pontifications

10/15/2009

Preliminary Stimulus Jobs Report

Filed under: Economics,Obama — DRJ @ 7:04 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

The preliminary Stimulus numbers are in and the folks in the Obama Administration say it exceeded their expectations:

  • Of the $787B stimulus package, $339B has been awarded and the first $16B reportedly created 30,083 jobs.
  • Calling all math majors: I think that comes out to more than $530,000 per job. If so, we know from earlier reports that most of the jobs saved were government jobs, particularly schoolteachers. How many schoolteacher’s jobs should we be able to save for every $530,000 spent?

  • $16B of $339B is 4.7% — the Administration apparently rounds it to 5% — and the White House recovery office projects the remaining funds will create jobs at the same rate.
  • Really? Okay.

  • “According to the White House recovery office’s rough calculations, the 30,083 jobs number projects out to a total of 1.2 million jobs saved or created by the stimulus through September.”
  • Let’s see if we can duplicate that calculation:

    16B/339B = 30,083 jobs/? jobs

    ? jobs = 30,083 x 339B/16B = 637,383 jobs

    I guess that was a rough calculation.

    Of course, if all $787B is disbursed it would theoretically yield 1.2M jobs … although there’s no way the jobs could be saved or created by September even if all the job creation numbers look like these. Hopefully other jurisdictions used their funds more efficiently so $530,000 will save 2 or 3 jobs. Then again, maybe this is as good as it gets.

    — DRJ

    31 Responses to “Preliminary Stimulus Jobs Report”

    1. My ex-colleagues at Booz Allen would be so proud.

      HeavenSent (01a566)

    2. If Barry would like to give me and Mrs G $530k apiece, we will save him the trouble of creating jobs for us. You’re welcome.

      Gazzer (22ecdc)

    3. It’s not fair to evaluate the stimulus yet cause most of the money is slated to be spent in the run-up to the elections all the way NEXT YEAR. You wingnuts always want everything right now now now. It’s very unattractive.

      happyfeet (f62c43)

    4. Please check my math (I was a liberal arts major) because I honestly can’t believe this is true.

      DRJ (7fbae6)

    5. Math is hard. And you are raaaacist!!

      MSM (a24890)

    6. My calculator is also racist. It backs up your numbers.

      [Thank you for fact-checking my numbers, Bradley. — DRJ]

      Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (0ea407)

    7. I did some back of the envelope calculations on my blog. Basically, they spent about $16 Billion to save about $2.4 Billion in employee income.

      Of course, taking that further, only about 20% of that $2.4 Billion will come back in taxes, so the government invested $16 Billion to get $0.5 Billion. That’s only a loss of about 97%. Hopefully the people who got the actual pork from the stimulus will have to pay some taxes, too. However, most of them are Democrats, so the jury is out on whether or not they will, especially if they use Turbo Tax.

      SomeOtherSteve (238ed0)

    8. $530,000 per job. Great. Those are some f*ckikng expensive teachers.

      Way off-topic, but Its Always Sunny in Philadelphia was hysterical tonight.

      JD, who Chimperor/lovie will now refer to as Sir, or Grand Exalted Superior Human (692c5d)

    9. It must some sort of new math…

      (JD, in my book you will remain simply, JD. I just don’t have the energy nor the time to commit to the superfluous detail of your new handle which draws unnecessary attention to someone who neither needs nor deserves it. Besides which, JD is solid and steadfast. Please make note of that.)

      Dana (863a65)

    10. Dana is right, JD — I am so tired of seeing that ambipolitical troll get undeserved attention.

      Brother Bradley J. Fikes, C.O.R. (0ea407)

    11. Oops. I only meant to have that up for one comment. Sorry.

      JD (3086d2)

    12. Does not exactly match Joe Biden’s numbers … and we all know he’s keeping a close eye on the stimulus, right?

      SPQR (26be8b)

    13. Not to hijack, but I would love some of the many people who are smarter than me check out the math of Dingy Harry’s latest claim. I am perfectly happy to be proved wrong.
      http://gazzersgabfest.com/?p=2079

      Gazzer (22ecdc)

    14. $530,000 is enough to retire on.

      roy (d6fc79)

    15. #

      Does not exactly match Joe Biden’s numbers … and we all know he’s keeping a close eye on the stimulus, right?

      Comment by SPQR — 10/15/2009 @ 7:56 pm

      Wow – clean forgot he’s in charge of the stimulus, isn’t he? He’s been keeping a high profile lately. OTOH saw Time or Newsweek at the store today saying on the cover “Joe Biden really is not a joke” or some such. LOL That’s gotta hurt.

      no one you know (1ebbb1)

    16. The Obama administration is math challenged from A to Z. The Baucus bill will cut physicians’ Medicare reimbursement 25% in two years, then keep it the same with no inflation adjustment. That will certainly solve the Medicare patient’s problems finding a doc. The entire Obama program is pure, unadulterated BS.

      Mike K (2cf494)

    17. Take heart. Maybe he’ll add doctors to the list of people getting a one-time $250 payment.

      DRJ (7fbae6)

    18. Give me $530,000 and someone can have my job.

      Have Blue (854a6e)

    19. Gazzer, I submitted a comment with a link to Hot Air for your blog post. The tort reform savings were stated as the 10 year total, not annual savings.

      SomeOtherSteve (238ed0)

    20. Noyk – It is scary that Biden could be in charge of, well … anything.

      JD (3086d2)

    21. Thanks SomeOtherSteve, I appreciate that. Harry mis-spoke, surprise, surprise, when he said “each year” and I missed Hot Air’s clarification. It was driving me nuts. Thanks again.

      Gazzer (22ecdc)

    22. Dana – I am assuming that is yet another Newsweek knob-job for the Barcky administration. SHOCKA

      JD (3432ec)

    23. “Of course, if all $787B is disbursed it would theoretically yield 1.2M jobs … although there’s no way the jobs could be saved or created by September even if all the job creation numbers look like these. ”

      You’re counting it all as spending. The 787 figure includes 237 billion as tax cuts. Counting only the reported (as in ‘this contract saved x jobs’) direct job gains from spending will undercount not only the gains from spending, but also the gains from tax cuts.

      imdw (efa369)

    24. It’s the trickle up theory; like reverse osmosis. The exact opposite of Ronald Reagan’s trickle-down. With trickle-up, as Sir Isaac Newton never theorized, logic defies gravity; de-creating wealth by siphoning dollars upward. This will be closely followed by a great vacuumous sound, as Albert Einstein never theorized, whereby wealth disappears.

      If you don’t understand, just as Joe Biden; it’s all a bit too complicated for me to go into details.

      Corwin (ea9428)

    25. Do these numbers include the massive auto bailout of those precious union jobs, or is that yet another “hidden” item, only to be tallied up later?

      Dmac (5ddc52)

    26. It’s all Bush’s fault right? After all they still are working on the stimulus released by him before Obama took office. No wonder everything is in the toilet. Thankfully they still enjoy blaming Bush for everything.

      Eagle's Dominion (26557f)

    27. With all the police and teaching jobs saved, it is just obvious that the rest of us were too stupid to qualify for a $530,000 job.

      Unless most of the $530,000 found it’s way into some Chicago bank accounts. Then we are paying the teachers a reasonable salary.

      MU789 (718eef)

    28. Green jobs created by private investments in renewable energy also prove to be quite expensive. Recently (October 14), my local newspaper in Englewood, FL, the Herald-Tribune, published an article on its front page concerning a solar photovoltaic farm that Florida Power & Light (FPL) just completed in Arcadia. The cost was $152 million for the nine-month construction project in which jobs peaked at 400 during the construction phase. This this figures out to be about $380,000 per worker. After the project is completed a single, highly-paid engineer and six groundskeepers will have permanent jobs at this photovoltaic farm in Arcadia. This figures out to be an investment of about $22 million for each permanently-created green job. If this is taken as a model for creating green jobs then creating one million of Obama’s green jobs will require an investment of about $22 trillion. Perhaps the $22 trillion would also create another million or two million green-jobs in plants manufacturing solar voltaic panels (mostly in China), however, $22 trillion is a pretty hefty investment for the creation of only two or three million jobs. No wonder the unemployment rate is 17% in Spain.

      Jose Sanchez (dd7ec8)

    29. imdw,

      The tax cuts were distributed as direct cash payments amounting to approximately $13/week in 2009 and $7.70/week in 2010. Even the Obama Administration hasn’t claimed those payments saved or created jobs.

      DRJ (7fbae6)

    30. […] so what about job creation generally? Of the $787B stimulus package, $339B has been awarded and the first $16B reportedly […]

      Obama Stimulous Costing Big Money « Something should go here, maybe later. (661794)


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