Patterico's Pontifications

4/3/2012

Wisconsin, Maryland and DC primary thread

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 4:00 pm



[Posted by Karl]

Polls close in Maryland and DC at 8 ET; Wisconsin’s polls close an hour later.  Here’s your Google Map.  In Wisconsin and Maryland, some delegates are awarded by Congressional District, but on a winner-take-all basis, with another, at-large batch in each state awarded on a statewide winner-take-all basis.  DC looks to be a simple winner-take-all contest.  The party leaders look to be bound to the winner in WI and MD, but not in DC.  That small detail is a springboard for the statistical analysis from The New Yorker, which suggests Mitt Romney will end the campaign on June 26th with 1,122 delegates — 22 short of the magic 1,144 necessary to lock up the GOP nomination.  However, as Joshua T. Putnam, a political scientist at Davidson College in North Carolina (and the author of the Frontloading HQ blog), who helped with the analysis notes, there will be about 598 unbound delegates remaining at this point.  Odds that rick and Newt could lock up all but 21 of them?  Probably long odds indeed.

Update: Romney wins all three, although Santorum may get the delegates for four CDs in Wisconsin.

–Karl

2/16/2024

Weekend Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 9:44 am



[guest post by Dana]

Let’s go!

First news item

I believe that Putin essentially killed Navalny because he remained a serious threat (even in his weakened physical state) to the Kremlin’s iron grip over the populace. Even during his imprisonment, Navalny’s vocal opposition to Putin, criticism of the state, and his bruising humor while under the most severe circumstances could no longer be permitted. Thanks to Navalny’s courage, there can be no denying the evil that is Putin. He had to go. But Navalny’s legacy is firmly in place. There will be no erasing of his memory:

Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service said in a statement that Mr. Navalny, 47, had lost consciousness and died after taking a walk on Friday in the Arctic prison where he was moved late last year. “All necessary resuscitation measures were taken, which did not lead to positive results,” the statement said.

Navalny’s wife speaks:

Yulia Navalnaya just shocked the Munich Security Conference by taking the stage to make a statement denouncing Putin and his government. “We cannot believe Putin and his government. They are lying constantly. But if it’s true, I would like Putin and all his staff, everybody around him, his government, his friends, I want them to know that they will be punished for what they have done with our country, with my family and with my husband. They will be brought to justice and this day will come soon.”

One must also wonder how nervous the Kremlin is, given Navalny’s death right before an election…

Second news item

On Tucker Carlson’s ridiculous interview with Putin and subsequent praise of Moscow and Putin:

In a healthy democracy, if we still were one, such a double stunt—granting a sycophantic interview to a supervillain and then trashing the United States and praising Russia while onstage in Dubai—would be greeted with condemnation, shame, or both. But we don’t appear to live in that country right now.

This is to our shame. It’s still shocking to see Americans’ embrace of Putin and Russia.

This:

If you’re going to worship a dictator, you must then worship the dictatorship. MAGA adoration of autocrats like Orbán and dictators like Putin may begin with “we need a strongman in America” but it logically progresses to advocating advocating for despotism.

Tucker is a propagandist, and the comparisons to Western leftists from Duranty to Bernie to Michael Moore visiting the USSR & Cuba in gullible awe are fine. But this is a concrete campaign on behalf of Putin’s murderous dictatorship, not credulous ideology…

It’s a war. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the front line, but it extends to every aspect of the free world vs authoritarians. Trump & the GOP have picked a side. Propagandists like Tucker & Musk have picked a side. It is not the side of America or freedom, and they know it.

The depravity of an American pretending to envy life in Putin’s collapsing gulag state, & the history of such spectacles, has been covered. I will simply ask how many educated people move to Putin’s Russia vs how many leave?

Third news item

House impeachment:

The GOP-led House impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on a second attempt after the resolution failed last week. He is the first Cabinet secretary to be impeached in nearly 150 years. The vote tally was 214 to 213 with three Republicans siding with Democrats.

The three Republicans voting with Democrats were Ken Buck of Colorado, Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, and Tom McClintock of California.

Fourth news item

The U.N. disgraces itself… once again:

Griffith tried to do some damage control:

Just to clarify: Hamas is not on the list of groups designated as terrorist organizations by the United Nations Security Council.

This doesn’t make their acts of terror on 7 October any less horrific and reprehensible, as I’ve been saying all along.

Of course, this only begs the question: Why on earth hasn’t the U.N. designated Hamas a terrorist group?

Fifth news item

Democrats are likely to oppose it because it doesn’t provide aid to Palestinians, and Marjorie Taylor Greene has said she would lead the move to oust Speaker Johnson if he brings any bill to the floor providing aid to Ukraine. So much for bipartisanship:

A bipartisan group of House members on Friday rolled out a $66 billion national security package that would provide aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

The 30-page “Defending Borders, Defending Democracies Act” would automatically reject migrants who legally or illegally cross the border without proper paperwork for one year —restricting asylum, but with humanitarian exceptions.

The bill also blocks the use of federal funds to transfer migrants between detention centers or other locations unless it is for adjudicating their immigration case.

It would also implement a Trump-era policy that required migrants and asylum seekers be turned back to Mexico to await their court hearings. The policy requires cooperation from the Mexican government and cannot simply be enforced from the U.S. side.

By the numbers: The bill includes $47.7 billion in aid to Ukraine, $10.4 billion for Israel and $4.9 billion for U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific to combat China.

Sixth news item

As if flying isn’t stressful enough:

Unhappiness with air travel took a new turn when maggots rained down on passengers on a Delta flight from Amsterdam to Detroit, Michigan, on Tuesday.

A passenger reportedly brought rotten fish on to the plane in a carry-on bag, and placed it in an overhead bin, before the maggots broke free and rained on to passengers seated below,

This individual should be banned from ever flying again!

Seventh news item

Checking in on today’s Republican Party, and I see that CPAC 2024 lists failed Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy as a featured speaker at the Ronald Reagan dinner.

Eighth news item

While awaiting Judge Engoron’s decision in Trump’s $370 million civil fraud case, the former president is opting out in another issue:

Former President Trump and his legal team have decided against appealing a court’s decision that found he is not immune from civil lawsuits that blame him for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, after they previously signaled he would file an appeal.

Trump’s decision to not take his broader immunity claim to the Supreme Court means lawsuits seeking to hold him accountable for his role on Jan. 6 can move forward.

Have a good weekend.

—Dana

4/22/2022

Weekend Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 11:12 am



[guest post by Dana]

NOTE: Comments section not fully functional yet. You can post comments and updates are happening but won’t show up on Recent Comments toolbar at right side of page.

Let’s get started!

First news item

Unsurprising, if official policy:

One of Russia’s senior generals has said the country aims to capture not just the eastern Donbas region but all of southern Ukraine in its new stage of the conflict, a surprisingly broad public outline of the Kremlin’s aims for the war since refocusing away from Kyiv.

Major Gen. Rustam Minnekayev said the goal was to create a land bridge from Russia to the annexed Crimean Peninsula and another exit to the unrecognized pro-Moscow breakaway republic of Transnistria in Moldova, to Ukraine’s southwest.

Related:

A city official in besieged Mariupol says Russian forces are continuing to bomb a massive steel mill where Ukrainian fighters are holed up.

Petro Andryushchenko, an adviser to Mariupol’s mayor, told The Associated Press on Friday that “every day they drop several bombs on Azovstal, despite false promises not to touch the defenders.” Andryushchenko added that “fighting, shelling, bombing do not stop.”

The Azovstal plant is the last stronghold of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol, which the Russians has blocked for nearly two weeks and declared victory over this week. Ukrainian authorities have estimated that 1,000 civilians are inside the plant along with the fighters.

I’ll leave you with this bit of mystery:

Questions look set to be asked after two Russian oligarchs, both linked to gas giants, apparently murdered their wives and daughters before killing themselves—within two days of each other.

Second news item

Here we go:

Facing a growing rebellion from within the Democratic Party, the White House is standing behind its decision to end on May 23 a Trump-era deportation policy for migrants encountered at the southern border.

That decision to end the use of the public health order known as Title 42 has placed President Joe Biden in a political bind. The president is attempting to balance his long-standing promise to revoke the policy — which, under the banner of fighting the Covid pandemic, justified the immediate expulsion of migrants without due process — right as Republicans weaponize immigration before the midterms and as a growing number of Democratic senators want restrictions to remain in place for fear that the administration is not prepared for a summer surge of migrants to the border.

So, who in the administration is very concerned about the lifting of Title 42? Why none other than the Secty. of the Dept. of Homeland Security:

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has privately told members of Congress he’s concerned with the Biden administration’s handling of its plans to lift Title 42 on May 23, sources familiar with the conversations tell Axios…Mayorkas has also indicated a level of frustration and unease with the repeal rollout, the sources said.

Third news item

Agreed:

Florida’s Surgeon General, Joseph Ladapo…issues a state guidance with a dramatically different perspective [than the Biden administration]. From, “Treatment of Gender Dysphoria for Children and Adolescents” (emphasis within the text):

Due to the lack of conclusive evidence, and the potential for long-term, irreversible effects, the Department’s guidelines are as follows:
• Social gender transition should not be a treatment option for children or adolescents.
• Anyone under 18 should not be prescribed puberty blockers or hormone therapy.
• Gender reassignment surgery should not be a treatment option for children or adolescents.
Based on the currently available evidence, “encouraging mastectomy, ovariectomy, uterine extirpation, penile disablement, tracheal shave, the prescription of hormones which are out of line with the genetic make-up of the child, or puberty blockers, are all clinical practices which run an unacceptably high risk of doing harm.”
• Children and adolescents should be provided social support by peers and family and seek counseling from a licensed provider.

Much more at the link.

Fourth news item

How is this whole attempt by DeSantis *not* an impending disaster for Florida?:

There’s a lot of misinformation and confusion about what the end of Disney’s Reedy Creek district means for the company and for taxpayers. Here’s what I know, after talking to lobbyists, lawyers and tax officials:

For those of you who haven’t heard, Reedy Creek is the special tax district of Walt Disney World. It’s essentially its own city. Disney pays taxes to Reedy Creek, which operates a fire department, planning department, sewer treatment plant and public works department. On the other hand, Disney controls Reedy Creek, which means if they want to build a new hotel or highway, they just have to ask themselves for permission. The biggest loss for Disney is the end of that control. It’s a lot easier to ask yourself for permission than to go to the county. While they already follow all laws and building codes and they’ll still get everything they want, it’s going to slow the process down. Potholes might develop on roads that they no longer pave themselves. They can’t just call a meeting or alter their comprehensive plan on a random Friday. They also can’t quickly finance new public projects like a fire station. The bigger issue for everyone else is the tax revenue. Disney already pays the same local property taxes as every other landowner. Reedy Creek added its own tax on top of that to pay for its projects. That tax – $163 million per year – is illegal outside of the district. When Reedy Creek goes away, that tax goes away, and Orange and Osceola Counties can’t do anything to get it back.
However, the counties will now be responsible for all of the services Reedy Creek provides and all of the debt it has accumulated. They can’t raise sales taxes or impact fees. So, the counties will have to raise property taxes. They must tax every property equally – not just Disney – and therefore it’s expected that property taxes in Orange County will rise as much as 25% next June…The residents, by the way, had no say in this vote, no say in their property taxes going through the roof, and no desire to have their communities staring at financial ruin

Fifth news item

Convincing Sweden, Finland, and maybe others to join NATO:

Russian Senator Andrei Klimov called NATO a “suicide club” and warned that Sweden and Finland could meet the fate of the Azovstal steel fighters in Mariupol if they join NATO. Klimov says Finland’s prosperity was caused by good relations with the Soviet Union. Klimov claims “good neighborly relations” persisted even under Stalin. No mention of the 1939 Soviet invasion of Finland and the Winter War. Klimov warns that Ukraine destroyed its potential through pursuing NATO and anti-Russian militarism, and cautions Sweden and Finland against following its path.

Sixth news item

That was then, this is now:

Kevin McCarthy, the top Republican in the House, has been particularly vocal about the issue, backing legislation to crack down on tech companies.

“Diversity of opinion is the lifeblood of our democracy. And yet that fundamental American value is under assault by Big Tech — entities that have amassed more power and more control over more speech than any other institution in history,” the House minority leader lamented in a statement after Twitter “permanently suspended” [Marjorie Taylor] Greene this year.

“Their recent decisions to silence Americans — including a sitting member of Congress and renowned physicians — who share views different from the political and media elite have real world costs,” he added.

But McCarthy seemed to hold the opposite view a year earlier, in the days following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

According to an upcoming book by two New York Times reporters, McCarthy privately told fellow GOP lawmakers that he wanted social media companies to strip more Republicans of their accounts, as Twitter and Facebook had done with Trump.

“Can’t they take their Twitter accounts away, too?” McCarthy is quoted as saying.

Seventh news item

Where did all the moderate Republicans go? Long time passing…:

GOP Rep. Fred Upton’s announcement last week that he was retiring from his western Michigan district after 35 years means that moderate Republicans are now almost entirely extinct from the U.S. Congress. Twenty to thirty years ago, Republicans like Upton were more plentiful. There were northeastern Republicans like Nancy Johnson, Chris Shays and Rob Simms from Connecticut, Amo Houghton and Sherwood Boehlert from New York, and midwesterners like Upton, Steve Gunderson in Wisconsin, and Mark Kirk from suburban Chicago. They often broke with their party on social issues like abortion, guns and the environment but were fiscally conservative and pro-business.

Like conservative Blue Dogs who were once plentiful in southern and rural America, these so-called Rockefeller-Republicans have disappeared, as Democrats now represent their once solidly red suburban districts.

With these members gone, goes the narrative, so has the civility and functionality of Congress. Without their counterweight, the leadership in both parties is now captive to the wishes and wants of the extremes like those in the GOP Freedom Caucus or the Democratic Progressive Caucus.

Upton, in an interview with Meet The Press’ Chuck Todd last weekend, argued that unless Republicans pick up more than 15 seats this fall (for a total of at least 230 GOP-held seats), “it will be very hard to govern for Republicans… knowing that we’ve got the MTG [Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene] element that’s really not a part of a governing majority.”

Eighth news item

To mask or not to mask is still the question:

Philadelphia is ending its indoor mask mandate, city health officials said Thursday night, abruptly reversing course just days after city residents had to start wearing masks again amid a sharp increase in infections.

The Board of Health voted Thursday to rescind the mandate, according to the Philadelphia health department, which released a statement that cited “decreasing hospitalizations and a leveling of case counts.”

And:

LA County’s public health department reinstated part of its COVID mask mandate Friday, meaning a patchwork of rules for masks on public transit and at airports in Southern California. The decision announced Thursday came just days after a federal judge overturned the Centers for Disease Control’s mask mandate on public transportation.

Initially, local transit agencies went along with that Florida judge’s ruling, allowing the federal rule enforcing masks on planes, trains, buses and other ways of getting around to lapse. Masks became optional.

But that changed with Thursday’s announcement from the county health department. LA County’s own public health director apologized in making the announcement, saying the change will likely create confusion among residents feeling a sense of mask “whiplash” due to the back-and-forth.

Ninth news item

Gov. Newsom not so golden in California:

Six weeks after Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled a far-reaching effort to push more people into court-ordered treatment for severe mental illness and addiction, homeless advocates are calling it legally misguided and immoral as the proposal’s first public hearing at the state Capitol has been delayed.

More than three dozen organizations and individuals, including the American Civil Liberties Union, Disability Rights California and the Western Center on Law and Poverty, signed an April 12 opposition letter raising serious concerns with Assembly Bill 2830, one of two nearly identical measures moving through the Legislature to implement Newsom’s Community Assistance, Recovery and Empowerment Court. The groups often have significant sway among liberal legislative Democrats, the kind of influence that could hinder Newsom’s hopes for a new law to be in place by July 1.

Newsom touted the CARE Court framework last month as an innovative strategy to guide an estimated 7,000 to 12,000 people into housing and much-needed treatment. Under the proposal, family members, behavioral health care providers and first responders, among others, could petition a civil judge to initiate a CARE plan for eligible individuals who lack medical decision-making capacity.

MISCELLANEOUS


Camille Pissarro, ‘Rue Saint-Honoré, dans l’après-midi 1897

Note:

The U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled Thursday to revive a years-long lawsuit over the rightful ownership of a painting by French impressionist Camille Pissarro surrendered to the Nazis in 1939. The court’s ruling opens an opportunity for the heirs of Lilly Cassirer, the painting’s original owner, to reclaim it from the Thyssen-Bornemisza Museum in Madrid, where it has been on display for decades.

The Spanish museum has argued that Pissarro’s 1897 Rue Saint-Honoré, Après-midi, Effet de Pluie, was acquired in good faith. The Cassirer family maintains that it was sold under duress to a Nazi art appraiser. The painting is believed to be worth today tens of millions of dollars.

Details about how the lawsuit came to be:

The Pissarro painting, a depiction of a rainy Parisian street, was exchanged by Lilly Cassirer in exchange for $360 and her family’s safe passage out of Germany. She never received the money and, though she and her husband escaped persecution, her sister was killed at the Theresienstadt concentration camp. In 1948, the Cassirer family filed an appeal with a tribunal organized by Allied forces to recover the painting, but it had already been sold at a Gestapo auction in Berlin. Believing the painting was lost forever, the family accepted a $13,000 settlement from the German government.

In 1976, Swiss collector Baron Hans Heinrich Thyssen-Bornemisza purchased the Pissarro from the Hahn Gallery in New York for $275,000. Seventeen years later the baron’s art collection was acquired by Spain for $338 million. The 775 works comprising the acquisition formed the foundation of the Thyssen-Bornemisza Collection Foundation in Madrid.

Litigation began after Claude Cassirer, Lilly’s grandson, found the painting at the Thyssen in 2000. His requests for its return rejected, he sued the foundation in California court in 2005. After his death in 2010, his on David Cassirer carried on the court battle.

Have a great weekend!

–Dana

11/14/2020

Weekend Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 12:01 am



[guest post by Dana]

Here are a few news items to chew over. Feel free to share any items that you think might interest readers. Please include links.

First news item

Current status of the Republican Party:

SMDH.

Second news item

Trump claimed this:

PA says no way:

Pennsylvania’s Secretary of State said Friday that she would decline to recount or re-canvass votes cast in the presidential election last week. Kathy Boockvar wrote in a statement that “no statewide candidate was defeated by one-half of one percent or less of the votes cast.”

Thirds news item

Gov. Newsom: Do as I say, not as I do. And whatever you do, ignore that CA is the second state to report 1 million cases of COVID-19:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom and his wife attended a dinner party with a dozen attendees from several different households—despite his own administration recommending that people refrain from such gatherings during the coronavirus pandemic. The Nov. 6 dinner for one of his political advisers was held outdoors at Napa Valley’s swanky French Laundry restaurant, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Communications director Nathan Click said that the party “followed public health guidelines and the restaurant’s health protocols—all in line with the state’s rules for restaurant operation.” But, after the Chronicle published its story, Newsom said he shouldn’t have gone. “I should have modeled better behavior and not joined the dinner,” he said.

Third news item

More do as I say, not as I do:

After getting hammered with criticism, the plans were modified:

Fourth news item

Obama followed W’s lead:

“Whether it was because of the respect for the institution, because of lessons learned from his father, bad memories of his own transition or just basic decency, President Bush would end up doing all he could to make the 11 weeks between my election and his departure go smoothly. I promised myself that when the time came I would treat my successor the same way.”

Ensuring a smooth transition was a family affair:

transition

Fifth news item

Pressing on in spite of Trump’s resistance:

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden will be briefed by national security experts next week, Biden transition official Jen Psaki said on Friday, amid concerns that being out of the loop due to delays to the transition could be a national security risk.

A handful of Republican senators have urged the Trump administration to allow Biden to receive presidential daily intelligence briefings, which the president-elect traditionally receives before taking office.

Related: Former Chief of Staff to President Trump, John Kelly, weighs in:

“You lose a lot if the transition is delayed because the new people are not allowed to get their head in the game,” Kelly said Friday. “The president, with all due respect, does not have to concede. But it’s about the nation. It hurts our national security because the people who should be getting [up to speed], it’s not a process where you go from zero to 1,000 miles per hour.”

“Mr. Trump doesn’t have to concede if he doesn’t want to, I guess, until the full election process is complete. But there’s nothing wrong with starting the transition, starting to get people like the national security people, obviously the president and the vice president-elect, if they are in fact elected, to start getting them [up to speed] on the intelligence,” he said.

Sixth news item

Contrary to Trump’s dire warnings:

President-elect Joe Biden’s top coronavirus adviser said on Friday there were no plans for a wholesale nationwide lockdown to curb the surging coronavirus as three U.S. West Coast states jointly called for a halt in non-essential travel.

Seventh news item

Trump dreaming out loud:

“We’re going to win Wisconsin,” he began. “Arizona — it’ll be down to 8,000 votes, and if we can do an audit of the millions of votes, we’ll find 8,000 votes easy. If we can do an audit, we’ll be in good shape there.”

“Georgia, we’re going to win,” he continued, “because now, we’re down to about 10,000, 11,000 votes, and we have hand-counting” — a reference to the coming recount. “Hand-counting is the best. To do a spin of the machine doesn’t mean anything. You pick up 10 votes. But when you hand-count — I think we’re going to win Georgia.” He’ll also win North Carolina, Trump joked, “unless they happen to find a lot of votes. I said, ‘When are they going to put in the new votes in North Carolina? When are they going to find a batch from Charlotte?'”

Then there are two more — Michigan and Pennsylvania. “The two big states,” Trump said, before allowing, “They’re all sort of big.” In those two, Trump is pinning his strategy on protesting the exclusion of his campaign’s observers during critical periods of vote-counting. “They wouldn’t let our poll watchers and observers watch or observe,” Trump said. “That’s a big thing. They should throw those votes out that went through during those periods of time when [Trump observers] weren’t there. We went to court, and the judge ordered [the observers] back, but that was after two days, and millions of votes could have gone through. Millions. And we’re down 50,000.”

Eighth news item

In the right place at the right time:

When a bystander collapsed at the Veterans Day ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery Wednesday, a nurse was nearby and rushed to his aid. She happened to be the wife of the nation’s top military officer, Gen. Mark Milley…

“I just saw legs laying there,” said Milley, a practicing nurse.

Milley ran to see if she could help and found the man unresponsive.

“When I first got there, he was breathing in a very erratic way that he wasn’t really taking air into his lungs as he should have been,” she said. “And then he stopped breathing.”

The man had no pulse. Milley said she directed someone to call 911 and started chest compressions. “I did about two cycles of CPR, and then he just took a big, deep breath and kind of groaned a little bit and then started moving around.”

Milley detected his pulse and within a few minutes he began to respond to her questions.

“I put him in a side recovery position and just talked to him and told him what was going on and encouraged him to take deep breaths,” she said.

Ninth news item

LAPD gives LAPD a brusing:

Nearly 9 out of 10 Los Angeles Police Department officers did not feel supported by Chief Michel Moore and did not believe he or other commanders provided strong leadership during recent protests and unrest, according to a summer survey conducted by the officers’ union.

Many officers said Moore should resign, accusing him in comments they submitted with the survey of “cowering” to Black Lives Matter protesters, “pandering” to city politicians and “not having an organized plan” during the unrest, the union said.

Nearly 70% of respondents said the department was unprepared for the protests, which followed the May police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, and close to 40% said they were thinking of leaving the force.

However, officers panned the chief for kneeling with protesters — a sign, to them, that he was capitulating to a violent crowd. Many questioned why he did not highlight more of the positives about officers as protests spawned more and more questions about LAPD behavior, the union said.

This:

“After all, what can a first impression tell us about someone we’ve just met for a minute in the lobby of a hotel? For that matter, what can a first impression tell us about anyone? Why, no more than a chord can tell us about Beethoven, or a brushstroke about Botticelli. By their very nature, human beings are so capricious, so complex, so delightfully contradictory, that they deserve not only our consideration, but our reconsideration—and our unwavering determination to withhold our opinion until we have engaged with them in every possible setting at every possible hour.”

Amor Towles, A Gentleman in Moscow

Have a good weekend.

–Dana

10/29/2020

Your Handy Guide to Throwing Away Your Presidential Vote

Filed under: General — JVW @ 7:53 pm



[guest post by JVW]

In my ongoing efforts to make everyone into a more informed yet caustic and bitter voter, I thought I would try to render a bit of assistance to my fellow Patterico’s Pontifications readers who refuse to support the reelection of Donald J. Trump yet can’t countenance voting for a mediocre hack like Joseph R. Biden.

Four years ago I tossed a write-in vote in the direction of Evan McMullin, a man who at the time seemed to me to be an authentic conservative yet in the intervening years has led me to believe that he is a bit of a prima donna and caused me to regret my impulsive move. This time around I have vowed to be more judicious with my vote; no more write-ins for me: I’m going to find somebody on the California ballot worthy of my endorsement. I’ll be investigating the candidates as I write up this post, so what you will get is my snap judgement — which, I hasten to add is unerringly true except in the case of that McMullin fellow — so follow along with me as I learn all about the interesting and accomplished men and women who have tossed their hat into the ring. Without further ado, here they are in the order in which they appear on my ballot:
——–
Jo Jorgensen, President & Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, Vice-President; Libertarian Party
This is probably the most likely landing point for a disaffected conservative, right? I mean now that the battle for drug legalization has mostly been won, everyone seems to hate law enforcement, and nobody wants to send American troops anywhere outside of our own borders, all that’s left for libertarianism would appear to be the battle against the encroaching socialism seen among today’s Democrats. While it’s true that we might not yet be ready to deal with a President who sports bangs, us anti-big-government types who have been frustrated by the current White House occupant’s soft spot for authoritarianism need someone to remind us that taxation is, indeed, theft.

Ms. Jorgensen has a short but sweet URL (jo20.com), befitting a small-government advocate, and her website distills complex policy discussions into pithy one-sentence talking points in the same time-honored way that Democrats and Republicans have done for years. You still have to deal with the famous flakiness of libertarianism (she wants our foreign policy to be that of “one giant Switzerland” and her immigration policy can be un-demagogically characterized as open borders), but knowing that Congressional Republicans and Democrats might be a necessary brake on her ambitions makes her candidacy quite intriguing in this silly year. And who wouldn’t want a Vice-President named Spike?
——–
Joseph Biden, President & Kamala Harris, Vice-President; Democrat Party
No. Just no.
——–
Donald Trump, President & Mike Pence, Vice-President; Republican Party
Hard pass.
——–
Gloria La Riva, President & Sunil Freeman, Vice-President; Peace and Freedom Party
She is running on the Peace and Freedom Party ticket, yet the campaign website describes her as “a socialist answer to the two corporatist parties,” and the word “socialism” or “socialist” appears quite frequently. Eat your heart out, Bernie Sanders! In a fortuitous twist for all of us, it turns out the answer to each of the ten key issues that Ms. La Riva identifies as pressing needs is — coincidentally enough — more socialism! People are lacking life’s basics? Give them free stuff! The environment is being depredated? End capitalism! Cops are being mean to people of color? Reparations! Immigrants are having a hard go of it? No more borders! And so on.

If our Adorably Ornery Clueless niece is too milquetoast in her commitment to socialism for your taste, why not go for the Emperor Palpatine to buttercup’s Anakin Skywalker? The water in the deepest part of the well always tastes sweeter.
——–
Roque “Rocky” de la Fuente Guerra, President & Kayne Omari West, Vice President; American Independent Party
I have a soft spot in my heart for Rocky de la Fuente Guerra (whose name, if I am not mistaken, translates to “from the source of the war”). He’s perhaps the most interesting candidate on the ballot: born in San Diego, raised in Mexico and California, received a bachelor’s degree in mathematics and physics from Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, took over his family’s auto dealerships, expanded them, got into banking and land acquisition, had a bunch of disputes with governments at all levels, then embarked upon his second career as a perennial candidate. He’s run for President in the Democrat primaries (2016); the Republican primaries (2020); in the 2016 general election on the American Delta and Reform parties, the former of which was his own creation; and now in the 2020 election representing the American Independent Party, with that beacon of stability and common sense Kayne West as his running mate. When not running for President, Rocky likes to appear as a Democrat candidate for the United States Senate representing Florida (2016), a Republican candidate for New York City mayor (2017), a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate representing California (2018), an unaffiliated candidate for the U.S. Senate representing Washington (2018), a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate representing Florida (2018), as well as various offices in Wyoming, Hawaii, Minnesota, Vermont, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Earlier this spring he ran as a Democrat in the jungle primary for California’s 21st District House seat. His son Ricardo, who had previous run for House in seats in Florida and California, won a primary and is now the Democrat candidate for the 27th Congressional district of Texas. His other son, Roque III, managed to get on the Democrat Presidential primary ballot this year in Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Missouri, New Hampshire, Texas, and Utah.

Seriously, what’s not to love about this family?

Rocky père is running on a largely left-wing platform: single-payer health care, amnesty for immigrants, “livable” income for those who can’t work, job guarantees, green energy transformation, end overseas adventurism, raise Social Security contributions, etc. No matter that most of it doesn’t add up: if you are looking for an unserious man for rather unserious times, you can’t do any better.
——–
Howie Hawkins, President & Angela Nicole Walker, Vice-President; Green Party
Speaking of unserious candidates, Mr. Hawkins has managed to swipe the endorsement of the Socialist Party USA right out from underneath Ms. La Riva, perhaps on the strength of his Jeremy Corbyn-like beard. Though he had hopes of winning the Peace & Freedom Party nomination too, Ms. La Riva nudged him out for that honor to secure her place on my ballot. Mr. Hawkins (who likes to be referred to as “Howie,” so I’ll refer to him as “Mr. Hawkins”) styles himself an “ecosocialist” which, he hastens to inform us, is different from bureaucratic state-socialism. He advocates “communalism,” though without the racial or religious overtones, probably because its close cousin communism implies that public pension or trust-fund Greens will be “asked” to share with the less fortunate. He’s also against the U.S. developing a first-strike nuclear weapons capacity, so he’s thus lost my vote.

Like any good fringe candidate, Mr. Hawkins’ website is chock-full of position papers, platform documents, op-eds, speech transcripts, and moderately-lucid rantings about the things that anger socialists the most: success, wealth, autonomy, and freedom. Facing up to the reality that he won’t win, Mr. Hawkins declares a goal of expanding ballot access to Green Party candidates, so he must be fairly cheesed that the Democrats have conspired to keep him off the ballot on technicalities in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, two states in which he could conceivably hurt Joe Biden’s candidacy.
——–
So, short of writing in My Little Aloha Sweetie (which, to be honest, is probably at least a 50% liklihood at this point) I think I’ll probably vote for Jo Jorgensen. If BLM or antifa thugs later menace me, I can always say to them, “Hey, I’m on your side; I voted for Jo!” and as long as they don’t make me write it out I’ll probably have them fooled. I can also burnish my already sterling credentials as a woke feminist by pointing out that I voted for a woman for President in both the primary election and in the general election. In this awful year, it helps to be crazier than the times in which you live.

– JVW

6/19/2019

President Trump Kicks Off Re-Election Campaign: It’s All About The Numbers

Filed under: General — Dana @ 3:50 pm



[guest post by Dana]

Last night President Trump officially launched his re-election campaign with a rally in Orlando, Florida and a near-capacity crowd in attendance. According to offcial turnstile counts provided by the city of Olando, the 19,792 spectators fell slightly shy of the 20,000 capacity for the Amway Center. President Trump claimed during the rally:

“You know if we have three or four empty seats, the fake news will say, ‘Hey, they didn’t fill it up,’” Trump said at the rally. “They said, maybe we shouldn’t go to Orlando, we should go someplace else. I said, no, go to Orlando. Not only did we fill it up, we had 120,000 requests.”

To note:

Anyone could have requested two tickets at the Trump campaign’s website before the event, with a text verification required. Seating in the arena was mostly first-come, first-serve.

While most of the sections were filled to capacity, several sections in the upper tier of the arena had empty seats as the time approached for Trump to start his speech. But there also was a standing-room-only section on the arena floor in front of the stage that was crowded with people.

About an hour before Trump began to speak at 8:14 p.m., the long lines snaking around the Amway Center were gone and people could easily walk into the event. Only a few dozen people watched on screens outside at the campaign’s “45 Fest.”

None of this is really a big deal, except to President Trump, who will argue crowd size any day of the week, and will no doubt be contesting the actual count at some later point in time.

On a side note, reports state that President Trump raised nearly a whopping $25 million in the first 24 hours of his reelection campaigning:

Untitled

From the report:

The $24.8 million sum is several magnitudes higher than the leading Democratic candidates seeking the chance to challenge Trump in 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign said in April it pulled in $6.3 million during the 24 hours after he announced his third White House run.

Remember that these numbers are coming from the campaign itself: All 24-hour fundraising numbers come directly from the campaigns themselves or party committees, rather than the Federal Elections Commission. Fundraising figures reported by the campaign will be publicly available by July 15 and will offer more detail, including amounts of money spent, and cash-on-hand totals.

And speaking of yuge numbers: Still no word from the White House when President Trump will pay off his MAGA rally debts :

A new investigation from NBC News and the Center for Public Integrity found the Trump campaign owes city governments across the country upwards of $800,000 for police and public safety costs from his events.

The largest invoice to date comes from El Paso, Texas, where the president held a campaign rally in February. Trump still owes the city $470,417 for the event, the invoice shows.

Some invoices date back to 2016, before Trump was elected president. His 2016 campaign skipped out on municipal public safety bills from Green Bay and Eau Claire, Wisconsin; Tucson, Arizona; Burlington, Vermont and Spokane, Washington, according to the report.

Another five cities, including El Paso; Mesa, Arizona; Billings, Montana; Erie, Pennsylvania; and Lebanon, Ohio, are owed a combined $629,015.88.

Huge numbers, indeed.

(Cross-posted at The Jury Talks Back.)
–Dana

12/16/2016

Jill Stein’s Recount Uncovers Election Problems in Michigan

Filed under: General — JVW @ 12:36 pm



[guest post by JVW]

I know this news is a few days old but I don’t think it has been discussed here, and it is too much fun to ignore. Green Party Presidential candidate (Dr.*) Jill Stein’s demanded recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have run their course with varying results. In Wisconsin, the recount added an additional 131 net votes to the President-elect, bringing his margin of victory up to 22,748 votes and adding an additional .002% to his share of the state’s vote. In Pennsylvania, a federal judge denied Dr. Stein’s request for a recount, citing no shortage of reasons why it was a fool’s errand.

But Dr. Stein and her supporters appear to have hit the motherlode in Michigan, where their valiant efforts have at last uncovered election irregularities. On Tuesday, The Detroit News reported that discrepancies between reported totals versus actual numbers of ballots on hand is spurring an audit by the secretary of state’s office. Unhappily for progressives, the problems were uncovered in Detroit and Wayne County. Hillary Clinton captured 66.3% of the vote in Wayne County, and probably a significantly larger share in the city. From the article:

State officials are planning to examine about 20 Detroit precincts where ballot boxes opened during the recount had fewer ballots than poll workers had recorded on Election Day.

[. . .]

The recount problems were the worst in Detroit, where discrepancies meant officials couldn’t recount votes in 392 of the city’s 662 precincts, or nearly 60 percent. State law that bars recounts for unbalanced precincts or ones with broken seals.

[. . .]

Republican state senators last week called for an investigation in Wayne County, including one precinct where a Detroit ballot box contained only 50 of the 306 ballots listed in a poll book, according to an observer for Trump.

City officials have told state officials that ballots in that precinct were never taken out of a locked bin below the voting machine tabulator on Election Day, said Secretary of State spokesman Fred Woodhams.

And that’s not all. Yesterday, the Detroit Free Press reported further on the failure of Detroit precincts to keep accurate paperwork as required by law:

Detroit’s election paperwork was in such disarray that the Wayne County Board of Canvassers almost missed its two-week deadline to certify the presidential election.

Ninty-five poll books, lists of people who cast ballots, were delivered late to the board. Five of those precincts never did turn in a poll book, according to a memo from the Wayne County Clerk’s Office to state election officials.

[. . .]

Other problems found in Detroit’s handing of the election included 13 precincts that turned in poll books with missing voters. Staffers working for the board of canvassers were forced to flip through hundreds of individual voter applications to compile the count of people who voted in those precincts.

Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey defended her office’s handling of the 2016 presidential election, telling the Free Press on Wednesday that the city has struggled to attract poll workers in recent years.

In case the reader forgets how all of this audit came about, the Free Press helpfully reminds us:

Detroit’s problems were exposed during a statewide recount effort by Green Party candidate Jill Stein, which was later halted by a court before it could be completed.

I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong, and I was wrong about the righteousness of Dr. Stein’s demands for a recount. She has done all of us a favor by exposing the shady practices of the typical urban Democrat machine, and for that she deserves a measure of thanks from us.

– JVW

* Her supporters are for some reason very big on having the Harvard-trained internest identified as “Dr.” Jill Stein, even though she retired from her practice a decade ago. That’s a courtesy they don’t seem willing to apply to, for example, Ben Carson or Tom Coburn.

11/26/2016

Hillary Clinton Says “Yes” To Vote Recount, Trump Snaps Back, “Oh, No You Don’t!”

Filed under: General — Dana @ 1:29 pm



[guest post by Dana]

When you try to sow the seeds of doubt in people’s minds about the legitimacy of our election, that undermines our democracy. — President Obama

During the last presidential debate, Chris Wallace asked Donald Trump whether he would accept the election results. When Trump refused to commit, Mrs. Clinton (and the New York Times) took him to task:

[It] was Mr. Trump’s remark about the election results that stood out, even in a race that has been full of astonishing moments.

Every losing presidential candidate in modern times has accepted the will of the voters, even in extraordinarily close races, such as when John F. Kennedy narrowly defeated Richard M. Nixon in 1960 and George W. Bush beat Al Gore in Florida to win the presidency in 2000.

Mr. Trump insisted, without offering evidence, that the general election has been rigged against him, and he twice refused to say that he would accept its result.

“I will look at it at the time,” Mr. Trump said. “I will keep you in suspense.”

“That’s horrifying,” Mrs. Clinton replied. “Let’s be clear about what he is saying and what that means. He is denigrating — he is talking down our democracy. And I am appalled that someone who is the nominee of one of our two major parties would take that position.”

Mrs. Clinton then ticked off the number of times he had deemed a system rigged when he suffered a setback, noting he had even called the Emmy Awards fixed when his show, “The Apprentice,’’ was passed over.

“It’s funny, but it’s also really troubling,” she said. “That is not the way our democracy works.”

untitled

Today the Clinton camp announced they will be actively talking down our democracy:

Hillary Clinton’s campaign said Saturday it will take part in efforts to push for recounts in several key states, joining with Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who has raised millions of dollars to have votes counted again in Wisconsin.

This in spite of the Clinton campaign saying they conducted their own investigation and did not find any evidence of hacking of voting systems.

Further, according to Clinton’s campaign counsel Marc Elias:

“Because we had not uncovered any actionable evidence of hacking or outside attempts to alter the voting technology, we had not planned to exercise this option ourselves, but now that a recount has been initiated in Wisconsin, we intend to participate in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides,” Elias wrote on Medium.

“If Jill Stein follows through as she has promised and pursues recounts in Pennsylvania and Michigan, we will take the same approach in those states as well,” he added.

However, the White House threw cold water on the recount efforts and publicly parted ways with the one individual who was entrusted to secure President Obama’s legacy:

“We stand behind our election results, which accurately reflect the will of the American people,” a senior administration official told POLITICO late Friday.

“The federal government did not observe any increased level of malicious cyber activity aimed at disrupting our electoral process on election day,” the official added. “We believe our elections were free and fair from a cybersecurity perspective.”

Trump released a statement today:

“The people have spoken and the election is over, and as Hillary Clinton herself said on election night, in addition to her conceding by congratulating me, ‘We must accept this result and then look to the future.’

“It is important to point out that with the help of millions of voters across the country, we won 306 electoral votes on Election Day – the most of any Republican since 1988 – and we carried nine of 13 battleground states, 30 of 50 states, and more than 2,600 counties nationwide – the most since President Ronald Reagan in 1984.

“This recount is just a way for Jill Stein, who received less than one percent of the vote overall and wasn’t even on the ballot in many states, to fill her coffers with money, most of which she will never even spend on this ridiculous recount. All three states were won by large numbers of voters, especially Pennsylvania, which was won by more than 70,000 votes.

“This is a scam by the Green Party for an election that has already been conceded, and the results of this election should be respected instead of being challenged and abused, which is exactly what Jill Stein is doing.”

Exit question: How long before President-elect Trump re-thinks things, and decides he will instruct his AG to appoint a special prosecutor to look into Crooked Hillary’s email scandals after all??

P.S. Although Jill Stein insists that “immediate support is crucial”, any contributor to the cause might want to consider that the amount of money she says it will take to accomplish a recount mission strangely keeps increasing with each and every passing day. The amounts listed now even includes lawyers’ fees. And there are no guarantees:

We cannot guarantee a recount will happen in any of these states we are targeting. We can only pledge we will demand recounts in those states.

If we raise more than what’s needed, the surplus will also go toward election integrity efforts and to promote voting system reform.

Sure it will.

–Dana

11/5/2016

New Pennsylvania Poll Reassuring for Hillary

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 2:30 pm



How reassuring? Mmmm…somewhat. The lede tells you it’s +6 worth of reassurance. But read further and it’s really more like +4 or +5. Good enough:

A new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a 6-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters, who also expressed some concerns about potential violence as the tense and tumultuous election draws to a close.

The results are similar to a poll conducted two weeks earlier, indicating little to no shift in public opinion after the recent FBI announcement that it was reviewing a new set of emails linked to Clinton, said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.

The statewide survey — conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 4 with 405 likely Pennsylvania voters and with a margin of error of 5.5 percentage points — shows Clinton with support from 48 percent and Trump with the backing of 42 percent in a head-to-head matchup.

When third-party candidates are included, Clinton’s lead narrows to 4 points. She drew 44 percent, with Trump at 40 percent, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 7 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.

Both Johnson and Stein will be on the ballot, suggesting that +4 might be closer to the truth. That said, voters tend to get more serious when they actually get in the voting booth, and people who initially said they were for third-party candidates often change their mind and vote for one of the major-party candidates when the rubber hits the road. So we may be looking at +5 for Clinton here.

Muhlenberg has an A rating from 538, by the way, and is typically biased in favor of the Republican by about half a point. So this is not pro-Democrat hackery.

Trump could conceivably win without Pennsylvania, but it’s a rough, rough road. (So rough!) He’ll need Ohio, which is realistic. He’ll need Florida, which he could do. But good luck winning Virginia. And while things are looking good for him in North Carolina, Georgia, and Iowa, it’s looking very tough for him in Wisconsin and Colorado, among other places.

Overall, not a good sign for the Trumpster.

[Cross-posted at RedState.]

3/20/2015

Scott Walker: I’m Glad I Fired My Consultant for Speaking the Truth About Iowa

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:38 am



He’ll fight unions, and he’ll fight ISIS, but there’s no fighting the Iowa voters:

Gov. Scott Walker brought his Wisconsin story to South Carolina on Thursday, telling voters how he overcame protests and a recall effort, and suggesting the departure of a campaign aide this week was rooted in the need to respect voters.

In a speech to about 200 people at the TD Convention Center in Greenville, Walker indirectly addressed the departure of social media aide Liz Mair after news spread about tweets she posted before she was hired that disparaged Iowa and its caucuses, the first in the nation.

“One of my clear rules is, if you’re going to be on our team, whether on the paid staff or a volunteer, what I always say is you need to respect the voters,” he said. “Because really if you think about campaigns, it’s not about the candidate or the staff. It’s about the voter. It’s about how to help people’s lives be better.

“One of the things I’ve stressed … in the last few days as I’ve looked at the possibility of running is you have my firm commitment that I’m going to focus on making sure that the people on my team, should we go forward, are people who respect voters.”

Mair stepped down Tuesday just hours after her hiring had been announced — and shortly after the head of the Iowa Republican Party said Walker should fire her.

The offending tweets by Mair were these:

Note the dates. The tweets were written by Mair before she was hired, but apparently having those opinions to begin with was fatal to her consulting deal with Walker.

Upon reflection, I think Mair is wrong. I think having Iowa first is just fine, because you get to find out from jump street whether a politician is craven: i.e. do they support ethanol subsidies or not? (It’s this sort of lunacy, I believe, that caused Mair to tweet what she did.) Scott Walker supports them. Ted Cruz (and, to his credit, Rand Paul) do not.

Ethanol subsidies, like any agricultural subsidies, are a distortion of the marketplace and create all sorts of crazy incentives. It’s a policy that would make a wanna-be socialist like FDR proud, and only craven vote-seekers in the GOP (that’s most people) support them.

Like his support for ethanol subsidies, firing Mair (her resignation was clearly not voluntary) was a disappointing action for Walker to take. But hey, sometimes you gotta bow to reality, as Gil Fulbright hilariously reminded us last year:

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