Patterico's Pontifications

4/9/2025

Trump Puts 90-Day Pause on Some Tariffs, Not China

Filed under: General — Dana @ 11:06 am



[guest post by Dana]

Every day there is something new. One can’t keep up. I sure hope no one is planning on an actual full 90 day pause because we know that Trump is mentally unstable, flip-flops constantly, and doesn’t understand or care about the negative impacts his impulsive decisions have on the American people. It would be foolish to count on this happening (until it actually happens!):

Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

But for the moment:

—Dana

108 Responses to “Trump Puts 90-Day Pause on Some Tariffs, Not China”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (8e2fd8)

  2. Almost like… there’s a plan.

    Interesting.

    DOJ up over 2.5k.

    sheesh…

    whembly (b7cc46)

  3. NEW: Kevin O’Leary calls for 400% tariffs on China, says it’s time to “squeeze Chinese heads into the wall.”

    O’Leary praised Trump for playing hardball with the Chinese.

    “They cheat, they steal. They steal IP. I can’t litigate in their courts.”

    “You may not like Trump, you may… pic.twitter.com/PMVaDzP5V4

    — Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) April 9, 2025

    The target was always China.

    The end-result was always finding out who wants continued access to the US markets, and to coalesce a group of nations against China.

    We can argue all day long about tactics…

    At least we’re seeing some semblance of a plan.

    whembly (b7cc46)

  4. The end result was always for the Trump crime syndicate to buy up several trillion dollars’ worth of stock at bargain basement prices, I would say.

    nk (c2a137)

  5. I’m thinking about taking my life savings and putting it in the futures markets, betting both ways. I only lose with stability.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  6. You need a title. I suggest “Today’s Five-Year Plan”

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  7. #2

    The plan is to make Trump the center of attention for the day.

    Appalled (26cb99)

  8. Title Suggestion: There He Goes Again

    Appalled (26cb99)

  9. whembly #3 —

    So we breach our Trust with Australia and Japan and South Korea and Vietnam and get them to not really trust us just to put together some head fake on China?

    Um…no.

    Appalled (26cb99)

  10. Since conservatives have been saying from the beginning that Trump’s plan has been to use tariffs as the stick and free trade as the carrot it looks like conservatives understand what has been going on and been vindicated.

    Everyone else will continue to run around screaming that the sky is falling.

    Carry on

    NJRob (e3e89f)

  11. NJ Rob —

    Or we can see what tomorrow brings.

    Appalled (26cb99)

  12. Yesterday conservatives were saying that Tariffs were great and manly and that we all just needed to tighten our belts.

    Davethulhu (14e9e4)

  13. The White Album is back! By popular demand!

    In short, Trump’s trade policy is based on which countries genuflect to him, which don’t, and which stand up to the bully.

    It’s deranged. Mentally deranged.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  14. I’d like to see the list of those 75 countries.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  15. Since conservatives have been saying from the beginning that Trump’s plan has been to use tariffs as the stick and free trade as the carrot it looks like conservatives understand what has been going on and been vindicated.

    No, right-wingers are saying that, not conservatives, because tariffs aren’t conservative, they’re right-wing Pat Buchanan paleo retro.

    Basing a trade policy on who calls the White House is insane.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  16. This means there are 100 countries with unchanged tariff structure, penalized because they didn’t stroke this president’s tender overinflated ego.
    This isn’t conservative, it’s right-wing, bordering on a cult.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  17. because tariffs aren’t conservative

    Tariffs were conservative to the UK’s Conservative Party of the 1800’s. It’s more a measure of how meaningless the term “conservative” now is.

    “Conservative” generally means “resistant to change.” That would make New Deal Democrats in the 1980s “conservative” and Reagan Republicans the same in 2010. But now we see those advocating radical change calling themselves “conservative” because they want to return to some former Golden Age.

    But by this time everyone has a Golden Age, left or right, so that just makes the term more meaningless. I bet you that Klink has his own Golden Age that differs greatly from Trump’s.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  18. This isn’t conservative, it’s right-wing, bordering on a cult.

    No, No, and of course.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  19. You see, the chaos of the planned plan is the absence of plan so the plan is to not to plan so that the plan is always the plan because the plan is the plan is the not plan.

    Carry on.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a)

  20. That was always the plan.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a)

  21. “Conservative” means different things on different continents in different eras, Kevin. The context of my comment is 21st and late 20th century America, where conservative is anti-tariff and pro free trade. Pat Buchanan is anti-tariff, right-wing, his right-wing soul snatching Trump’s body.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  22. The end-result was always …….. to coalesce a group of nations against China.

    If true, it will be an expensive and possibly empty Christmas.

    Chinese producers of plastic Christmas trees and other festive decorations say orders from U.S. clients, which are crucial for their business, should have started to come in by now. But because of surging import tariffs, they haven’t.
    ………
    U.S. retailers are almost completely reliant on China for Christmas decorations, where they source 87% of such goods – worth roughly $4 billion. Chinese factories are also heavily dependent on the U.S. market, where they sell half of what they make.

    If Americans want new Christmas decorations this year, they will have to pay a lot more for them – if they can find them on the shelves at all.

    “So far this year, none of my American customers have placed any orders,” said Qun Ying, who runs an artificial Christmas tree factory in the eastern city of Jinhua.

    “Of course it’s about the tariffs. By mid-April all the orders are normally finalised, but right now … it’s hard to know if any orders are coming. Maybe American customers won’t buy anything this year.”
    ………
    Shifting production to the U.S., one of Trump’s goals in imposing tariffs on China and almost every other country in the world, is not feasible, says Jami Warner, executive director of the American Christmas Tree Association.

    “They certainly can’t be made in the United States. There’s no manufacturing, the technology isn’t here, the labour market isn’t here,” said Warner.

    Warner, who expects significant, but hard to estimate, price increases, says 80% of all Christmas trees displayed in the U.S. are artificial. The pre-lit trees, which is most of them, are only made in China.
    ……….

    More

    ……….Around 77% of toys imported into the United States come from China, according to data from The Toy Association. Vietnam is third, just behind Mexico. Trump previously placed a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico that aren’t compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

    Hasbro and Mattel, leaders in the toy space, both incorporated a 20% tariff impact from China in their guidance projections for 2025 and had strategies in place to shift production to other countries, like Vietnam, Indonesia and India, all three of which were also hit with tariffs — 46%, 32% and 26%, respectively.

    “As a result, relocating production may not be financially viable,” wrote Eric Handler, analyst at Roth, in a research note to investors published Thursday. “The consumer should soon see price increases to partially offset the tariff impact.”
    …………
    “You could have anywhere from 35% to potentially even a point-for-point price increase on products depending upon what margin those products run at,” (Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of The Toy Association said). “It may actually just be a 50% price increase, given it’s a 54% tariff.”

    Most toy margins are in the high single digits, he noted. So, there is very little wiggle room for companies to absorb these fees.

    “There’s no place for it to go, but to the consumer,” Ahearn said………
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  23. whembly (b7cc46) — 4/9/2025 @ 11:24 am Almost like… there’s a plan.

    nk may be right.

    The plan may be by somebody (not Trump himself, but somebody with a connection to Trump) to make money by selling stocks short, and in the meantime try to stay close to Trump. Trump is only suspicious that somebody could be bullish – not that somebody could be trying to make money by selling short.

    Trump first delayed his big announcement till 4 pm (after the NYSE closed, so he is aware of the possibility of somebody profiting from news but I think he is not familiar with short selling.

    Waiting till 4 pm to make his announcement last week kept prices stable, then he shocked the market by doing much more than expected so it would open the next day lower.

    If there is no rebound, the stock price manipulator arranges false leaks (quickly but not super quickly denied by the White House) about Trump going easier on tariffs.

    Usually he can make Trump do something positive about the market if he wants.

    I can’t name names. I don’t know enough to make a guess. But I think this person also maybe has an influence on pardons.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  24. nk (c2a137) — 4/9/2025 @ 11:36 am

    The end result was always for the Trump crime syndicate to buy up several trillion dollars’ worth of stock at bargain basement prices, I would say.

    That’s risking too much. It’s selling short before bad news hits, and making the bad news much worse than anyone anticipated, and then the next day or two, covering the bets by either leaking the possibility of good news for the market, or getting Trump to do something positive for the market.

    These are all short term bets. repeated more than once.

    This person or persons is not sure he can control or lie about what Trump thinks he is doing indefinitely.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  25. The end-result was always finding out who wants continued access to the US markets, and to coalesce a group of nations against China.

    By penalizing every country on earth with bullshyte non-reciprocal tariffs? Absurd.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  26. Mystery: Why did Trump pardon two people close to Hunter Biden?

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-grants-clemency-2-hunter-bidens-associates/story?id=120349469

    President Donald Trump has granted clemency to a pair of Hunter Biden’s former business partners, both of whom accused former President Joe Biden’s son of improperly leveraging his father’s political power to broker overseas business relationships.

    Last Tuesday, Trump issued a full pardon to Devon Archer, who was sentenced to more than a year in prison for defrauding a Native American tribal entity in 2022.

    Later in the week, Trump commuted the 189-month sentence of Jason Galanis for his role in multiple fraudulent schemes.

    Archer and Galanis charted a similar path to their presidential pardons: Both men brokered business ties with Hunter Biden, were later found guilty of unrelated fraud schemes, pleaded with the Biden administration for executive clemency, and, when rebuffed, publicly accused Hunter Biden of improperly trading on his family name to secure overseas business deals.

    Galanis went a step further than Archer by retaining a high-powered Washington lawyer with close ties to the Trump political machine: Mark Paoletta, whom Trump recently tapped for general counsel at the White House Office of Management and Budget.

    Paoletta did not respond to a request for comment regarding Galanis’ commutation.

    Trump would be susceptible to an argument they were whistleblowers but he wouldn’t come up with this himself.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  27. @9

    whembly #3 —

    So we breach our Trust with Australia and Japan and South Korea and Vietnam and get them to not really trust us just to put together some head fake on China?

    Um…no.

    Appalled (26cb99) — 4/9/2025 @ 11:55 am

    It’s a reset Appalled.

    Hate the guy all you want… but, it’s always been about China.

    whembly (b7cc46)

  28. @25

    By penalizing every country on earth with bullshyte non-reciprocal tariffs?

    Yes.

    Absurd.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176) — 4/9/2025 @ 1:35 pm

    Maybe.

    Maybe not.

    We’re not going to know full well the implications for months.

    whembly (b7cc46)

  29. Fox News Sr. correspondent Charles Gasparino:

    Let’s be clear what happened, who capitulated here and why? You know, I don’t want to say this because I am a patriot, I am an American, but it is The White House who capitulated based on everything I hear and all my sources

    It tracks.

    Dana (dc1578)

  30. You’re presuming Trump actually has a trade master plan, whembly, one that he has never articulated. I don’t buy it.
    His decision process is glandular, not strategic.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  31. I sure hope no one is planning on an actual full 90 day pause because we know that Trump is mentally unstable, flip-flops constantly,

    Not on postponements he personally announces. So far he hasn’t.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  32. Trump hates the government of China but not for human rights reasons, and probably not because they killed a few persons he knows with Covid and they almost got him killed with it himself because this predates that. Most likely because they are dishonest in business.

    He seems embarrassed to openly hate the CCP.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  33. I feel so de-liberated.

    Dave (816e6a)

  34. Heh… I finally caught up on the news.

    The Trumpian pause wasn’t because of the DOW or NASDAQ or anything of the likes.

    It was the bond market, which was/is in shambles now.

    whembly (b7cc46)

  35. The end-result was always finding out who wants continued access to the US markets, and to coalesce a group of nations against China.

    Man, if only there was a trade plan platform, or a trans-pacific partnership. That could be an idea that definitely no one has thought of before.

    Existentialism in action, making choices in the present moment without relying on pre-determined structures or plans.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a)

  36. Is the Canadian tariff off or on or on but low?

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  37. I really don’t think Trump has a plan when it comes to tariffs. It feels a lot more like when a little kids playing pool, they hit the cube ball as hard as they can. Everything moves around they love watching the action and if one of their balls happens to go into a pocket, they celebrate.

    I listened to a podcast about economics that talked about an economist. Stephen Moran I think was his name who said that tariffs are an appropriate approach to have the rest of the world contribute to the burden we bear and having the dollar is the world reserve currency. It’s a debatable point, but the people who were presenting it were presenting it as the philosophical underpinnings of Trump’s actions. Then he pulls tariffs in the same people will say in their next installment that this is just Trump’s effort to use tariffs to create more free trade.

    Kids smacking the cube ball as hard as you can, and if something goes in all the rest of his friends jump up and down and insist, that’s what he meant to do

    Time (0db76f)

  38. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/stock-market-today-tariff-pause-triggers-3-000-point-dow-rally

    A healthy government auction of $39 billion in 10-year notes eased fear of an accelerating flight from U.S. dollar-denominated assets. And the president’s post provided additional relief.

    Now more than ever, it pays to understand the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, what it means to the global financial system and how its path will shape the second administration of President Donald J. Trump.

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said in multiple speeches, interviews and appearances since January and into April that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is a particular focus of the Trump administration as it carries out the president’s tariffs strategy.

    “The message from Bessent is consistent with our view that he has essentially one job,” wrote Evercore ISI Vice Chairman Krishna Guha in February.

    That job is “to try to prevent the 10-year yield from breaking 5%, at which point we think ‘Trumponomics’ breaks down, with equities rolling over and housing and other rate-sensitive sectors breaking lower.”

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  39. Trump’s understanding of tariffs.

    It’s like this: I buy a lot of stuff from the grocery store but the grocery store buys nothing from me! So unfair! So, I should impose a tariff on groceries I buy until they start buying my eBay stuff.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  40. The end result was always for the Trump crime syndicate to buy up several trillion dollars’ worth of stock at bargain basement prices, I would say.

    Pretty smart of them…

    Kids smacking the cube ball as hard as you can, and if something goes in all the rest of his friends jump up and down and insist, that’s what he meant to do

    Especially for idiots.

    Which is it?

    BuDuh (bf96af)

  41. I guess we now know if stupid Hitler is a member of the “Panicans” party.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a)

  42. Which is it?

    Hah, so you’d rather believe that this was a plan to rip off the globe by a few oligarchs, as opposed to just a monkey flinging poo.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a)

  43. If only we could have kept the adults in charge.

    BuDuh (bf96af)

  44. I am quoting nk, Klunk.

    BuDuh (bf96af)

  45. “My name is Legion for we are many.” — Mark 5:1-20

    A demoniac can be possessed by more than one unclean spirit. One that is chaotic and another which is mercenary and more besides. Is there any Commandment that Trump has not broken?

    nk (a99c5e)

  46. Honor you father and mother?

    Time (d98ce4)

  47. This 90-day “pause” should take the wind out of the sails of those who back reclaiming Congress’s tariff authority, as if they ever had any chance of passing The Trade Review Act anyway.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  48. I sure hope no one is planning on an actual full 90 day pause because we know that Trump is mentally unstable, flip-flops constantly,

    Not on postponements he personally announces. So far he hasn’t.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 4/9/2025 @ 1:45 pm

    It’s only been a few hours since Trump announced his “pause.” He has 89 days to change his mind.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  49. Honor you father and mother?

    Time (d98ce4) — 4/9/2025 @ 3:56 pm

    Okay. That has been my impression, too, although others have disagreed with me.

    nk (a99c5e)

  50. He’s even broken the 11th.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  51. But he HAS restored the freedom to shower!

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  52. He’s even broken the 11th.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/9/2025 @ 4:36 pm

    Which one?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  53. DO NOT RETALIATE AND YOU WILL BE REWARDED

    Davethulhu (14e9e4)

  54. “When you get slapped, you’ll take it, and like it.”

    I have never been in the green room at 60 Minutes with Xi Jing Pin, but even I know that China’s days of taking it and liking it from foreigners were ended in 1949.

    The Chinese government may be a military dictatorship masquerading as a Communist party dressed-up as a democracy but its success, and survival, are due to the fact that China’s face is finally lifted out of the mud.

    nk (a99c5e)

  55. @49 where’s Rob? He likes to note things and I want it noted I stood up for Donald Yrump.

    Time (b861bf)

  56. One, Trump taking credit for the stock market recovery today is akin to getting praised for extinguishing the kitchen fire that he started.

    Two, regarding Trump’s “master plan” on tariffs, recall that he selected the Navarro Plan only three hours before his Big Announcement.

    Trump has no tariff master plan, no actual strategy, he has no way to tax ourselves to prosperity, he has no actual idea how to add domestic manufacturing jobs in this chaotic economic environment.
    He’s winging it, and he’s taking this country and the world along with, which is dangerous because he still doesn’t comprehend how trade deficits work.

    Three, Trump’s 90-pause is only scarcely better because of the massive increase on China and the $550 billion of imports they send to us. We’re still f–ked, and so are all the countries still under this new tariff regime. More

    I don’t think people realize that in important respects tariffs are now higher & more inflationary than what was announced on last Wednesday.

    Since then we’ve gone from 54% to 125% on China, our 3rd largest trading partner. That outweighs delaying the increases on 70+ others.

    And since the beginning of the year have still added 10% across-the-board, 25% on non-USMCA Canada and Mexico, 25% on autos, 25% on steel and aluminum, etc. All of that is still with us.

    Average tariff rates still the highest in over a century.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  57. Trump is channeling Roseanne Roseannadanna. “Never mind!”

    norcal (cdf133)

  58. Day 79 of a scheduled 1461

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  59. Since then we’ve gone from 54% to 125% on China, our 3rd largest trading partner. That outweighs delaying the increases on 70+ others.

    5000% a week from now.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  60. Which one?

    “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican”

    https://politicaldictionary.com/words/eleventh-commandment/

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  61. Can we stop calling it a pause, since there is now a 10% tariffs across the board that just a week ago did not exist?

    SamG (4e6c22)

  62. Good point, Sam. I think that got lost in all the confusion.

    norcal (cdf133)

  63. And 25% on steel and autos, Mexico and Canada, and 125% on China.

    Even if these tariffs double the price of an iPhone, it’s still cheaper than $3500 for the American made one, assuming that the supply chain for all the pieces parts is even possible.

    We’re all going to pay more for everything, and the payoff is…unknown, the only thing the world knows is that America shouldn’t have a global veto any longer.

    The dollar as the global currency is going to go the way of the dodo, it won’t happen overnight, but it’s a stone guarantee, and that’s all to the detriment of America. I’m kind of partial to America, but I suppose if mankind stumbles through, this old world can still turn without America on top. Tougher for all our children though.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a)

  64. Good point, Sam. I think that got lost in all the confusion.

    No confusion, this was always the 100% plan.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a)

  65. Republican elected officials see 2016 knocking on their door. Trump’s base ignorant southern white trash democrats and working class. Republican base business community upper middle class and half of the wealthy.

    asset (630a1a)

  66. 2026 not 2016 my bad.

    asset (630a1a)

  67. BTW, I read Catoggio’s “Trump has no plan” piece after I said here that Trump has no plan.

    Some of his voters surely dismissed his tariff argle-bargle during the campaign as hot air, another item for the “seriously, not literally” annals. But I expect many, encouraged by the pre-COVID economic success of his first term, assumed that if he was serious about waging a revolutionary war on trade, then he must have a truly killer plan to win it.

    There is no plan. Even the tariff “pause” he ordered on Wednesday afternoon was plainly less a matter of the president executing a clever strategy than hastily retreating to avert a further financial meltdown. There’s no plan—and over the past week, the world came to realize it.

    Here’s a potential epigraph for some ambitious author’s history of the Trump recession of 2025. It comes from Republican Sen. Cynthia Lummis, grasping at straws to justify the chaos around her. “It’s something that we’ve never had a discussion about before,” she told Semafor, “in terms of: ‘Here’s a policy, let’s theorize about it—and then let’s try it and see what works.’ And that’s where we are. We’re at the try-it phase.”

    We’re at the “try-it” phase. With the stability of the global economy.

    Lummis is right, though. On Wednesday, the New York Times confirmed what should already have been painfully clear: The White House plunged into this debacle without any grand strategy to shape events going forward. Trump aides knew markets would decline, reporter Peter Baker explained, “but when pressed, several senior officials conceded that they had spent only a few days considering how the economic earthquake might have second-order effects.”

    Trump didn’t speak to Xi Jinping before proceeding with “Liberation Day,” apparently, nor did any senior American officials meet with their Chinese counterparts. He ordered the economic equivalent of Pearl Harbor on nearly every country on Earth with no second-stage battle plan except to start calling nervous investors “Panicans.”

    It pains me to indemnify Trump voters from any misery that their man has wrought, but, in fairness, I suspect most expected something more considered from the new administration than, “Let’s try nuking the entirety of global trade overnight and see what happens.” Everything about the “try-it phase” on tariffs has been ham-fisted, from the cockamamie formula used to calculate new rates to the endless mixed messaging from Trump’s Cabinet on their willingness to negotiate to the fact that U.S. importers were given no notice and now find themselves agonizing over what to do about orders they’d already placed.

    There is no plan. I think the president’s voters assumed there would, at least, be a plan.

    What they’ve gotten instead, in Baker’s words, is a “burn-it-down-first, figure-out-the-consequences-later” approach to policy.

    Put Trump’s bluster aside, he doesn’t know WTF he’s doing, he’s winging it, gambling our economy and the fate of the American people.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  68. More winging it.

    BuDuh (bf96af)

  69. BuDuh, I am actually interested in your thoughts here. Do you ascribe the decrease in inflation in March to something Trump did? If so, what? Do you expect the policies he has put in place (tariffs notably) to have the effect of continued lower inflation, or do you expect them to be inflationary?

    Nate (5fc2a9)

  70. Day 80 of a scheduled 1461. Already it’s old.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  71. We’re at the “try-it” phase. With the stability of the global economy.

    FDR did that in ’33 and ’34. “Hey, let’s have government-run trusts and get merchants to demonstrate their political loyalty with this Blue Eagle thing.” With the same kind of results.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  72. The date of Trump’s “liberation” announcement: 4/2/2025, which isn’t March.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  73. I’m glad it went down, but it won’t last.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  74. Nate, thank you for the question. I am ascribing to the “TrUMPFff!! DiDn’t lowER EGG PrICes ON DaY 1!!!!!!” Blame/Credit theory.

    BuDuh (bf96af)

  75. Nate, Buduh doesn’t really go in for thoughtful analysis on most topics. But he’s not stupid, and he doesn’t want to have to criticize Trump in the future. So he’s not going to commit to answering a question like that.

    Basically he’s trolling

    Time (50cbce)

  76. @73 the 6 ball went in the pocket! Trump totally 💯 planned that when he hit the cue ball as hard as he could.

    Time (50cbce)

  77. The Dow has given up nearly half of yesterday’s gains:

    DJIA: -1,300; -3.2%

    S&P 500: -215.11; -3.89%

    NASDAQ: -776.0; -4.5%

    Russell 2000: -88.8; -4.6%

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  78. Time purposely pretends he never read any of the criticism I leveled at Trump just so he can keep up with Klunk on the “Troll Watch” narrative in order to win friendship here.

    BuDuh (bf96af)

  79. BuDuh,

    Sure, I think it’s ridiculous to think that “Day 1 Blame/Credit theory” is real, but people who say something stupid like “Trump didn’t lower egg prices on day 1” are just referencing that during the campaign, he said he would, in fact, lower egg prices on day one.

    It was ridiculous when he said it. It would be ridiculous to think he would do it. I am not quite so sure it’s as ridiculous to point out that he didn’t do the ridiculous thing he said he would.

    But I also think it’s important to look at the things he’s doing that DO have an effect. Like, whembly is of the belief that his trade war stuff is going to end up with us having lower tariffs and the rest of the world becoming more free trade. If in 2 years, the whole world has fewer trade barriers, I’d count that as a huge win for Trump. If inflation skyrockets because of his policies, and nothing good comes of it, then that’s a pretty big L. Especially when he promised to lower inflation (which was world-wide and not really the fault of Biden at all, but many pretended it was).

    Nate (5fc2a9)

  80. The markets know that Trump has no strategy on tariffs, that he’s making it up as he goes, that he’s winging it.
    The Dow is down over 1,700 as of now. China is a top two importer to the US, so Trump’s 125% tax on goods is nothing but inflationary, and his 10% (or higher) tariffs on every nation but Canada-Mexico (under temporary exemption) isn’t reciprocal but is a punitive worldwide attack.

    The Dispatch editors rarely issue an editorial but this does seem like a good moment, because Trump’s actions in just 11½ weeks have fundamentally altered our relationships with every country on earth for the worse except for Russia, and his stupid tariffs and disregard for the rule of law and his acts of retribution have only compounded that.

    Paul Montagu (ab2176)

  81. Trump’s Trade Math Ignores a Major Export: American Services

    ……….
    While the U.S. buys more goods from abroad than it sells, the opposite is true for services, which include everything from streaming subscriptions to financial advice. Trump left these service exports out of his tariff math, but they are being pulled into his trade wars.
    ……….
    Countries can’t easily impose tariffs on services, but they can tax, fine or even ban U.S. companies. The European Union has floated going after big U.S. tech companies in response to Trump’s sweeping tariff threats. Trump also put U.S. service exports at risk by irking foreign consumers, many of whom might choose to avoid U.S. banks, asset managers and other firms. An economic slowdown that curbs demand as markets grapple with the president’s extreme trade makeover won’t help either.

    For decades, the U.S. and the rest of the world had a deal: Other countries sent cars, phones, clothes and food to the U.S., and in return they got bonds, software and management consultants.
    ……….
    Services gradually came to dominate the U.S. economy as the country grew wealthier. It was no longer Ford Motor and General Motors that mattered most, but companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet and JPMorgan Chase. Software and financial products became major U.S. exports. For some of the biggest services firms, foreign markets now matter more than the U.S.
    ………..
    ………. The U.S. has a large goods deficit with the EU, for example, but that is at least partially balanced by a services surplus.

    And now, EU politicians have hinted that they could target U.S. tech companies in retaliation for U.S. tariffs. “Europe holds a lot of cards, from trade to technology to the size of our market,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a speech before Europe’s Parliament last week.

    Countries and their consumers can lash out against U.S. services in a variety of ways. Foreign tourists booking American hotel rooms and airline tickets count as U.S. exports, but Trump’s actions have stoked rising anti-American sentiment that is turning off would-be travelers. In another blow, China on Wednesday issued a travel warning for the U.S.

    There is also the risk of foreign customers’ turning against U.S. brands. ………

    “When you generate bad will, it’s harder to sell stuff,” (said David Weinstein, a professor of economics at Columbia University).
    ###########

    From the article:

    International revenue exposure by company:

    Mastercard 70%

    Meta 63.7

    Visa 58.9

    Netflix 58.7

    Alphabet 51.3

    Microsoft 49.1

    Oracle 45.1

    JP Morgan 21.5

    Berkshire Hathaway 18.6

    US Services Exports by Category:

    Management consulting services/R&D 25%

    Travel (Personal/Business) 18

    Financial Services 17

    Intellectual Property 13

    Other (transportation, insurance,
    A/V, telecom/computer/information) 27

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  82. norcal (cdf133) — 4/9/2025 @ 6:24 pm

    Trump is channeling Roseanne Roseannadanna. “Never mind!”

    That was Emily Litella.

    The standard joke with her was her replying to an editorial (which PBS stations offered) bas on mistaking one word for another. She would get told by a voiceover that a different thing was said, and then she would say “Never mind.”

    https://www.facebook.com/LoveGildathefilm/posts/gilda-radner-as-emily-litella-whats-all-this-fuss-i-hear-about-an-eagle-rights-a/1022081636432109

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZLeaSWY37I
    https://www.google.com/search?q=youte+Emily+Litella&sca_esv=a2d1b3f2df31e648&source=hp&ei=LUT4Z7yDMYj-ptQPmNSrmQo&iflsig=ACkRmUkAAAAAZ_hSPakLSGxOR19Rr8DzVn5m_pyJQUpZ&ved=0ahUKEwj8zc_yv86MAxUIv4kEHRjqKqMQ4dUDCA4&uact=5&oq=youte+Emily+Litella&gs_lp=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&sclient=gws-wiz#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:206d6c14,vid:fZLeaSWY37I,st:0/

    This year, Trump was supposed to have mixed up transgender with transgenetic mice (without anyone making the cnnection to Emily Litella because it was too long ago) but he doesn’t seem to have done that.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  83. This is Roseanne Roseannadanna

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hYGtXIqDa0

    Her name was a play on Channel 7 (WABC) Rose Ann Scamardella.

    Also played by Gilda Radner.

    Nothing was similar except the name.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  84. Biden was saying that about a moonshot to cue cancer for years and years.

    He never seemed to notice that it wasn’t happening. He had to know he knew of no way to do it.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  85. He may have known, but the ability of the electorate to follow these debates is waning. Illiteracy and immuneracy are on the rise. How many adults do you suppose there are who have read a couple hundred books or know the compound interest formula, or who can find France on a map?

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  86. A guy in Costco pizza line that was asking everyone he could if they believed in the bible, and if they said they did he started going on the moronic flat earth and firmament requiring a believer to also believe the earth is flat.

    Northern Kentucky has the Australian reject Answers in Genesis and their “museum(s)” are here.

    But if you are required to discount the object reality of the universe, and you are OK with that, why would a tariff be a step too far?

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a)

  87. Breaking

    The Supreme Court told the Trump administration to seek the return of a migrant mistakenly sent to a Salvadoran prison, rebuffing government claims that it need do nothing to remedy its error.

    There were no dissents noted in the order Thursday, which directed the government to take steps to bring Kilmar Abrego Garcia, 29 years old, back to the U.S. from the maximum security facility it sent him to on March 15.
    ………
    The administration maintained that its only error was sending him to El Salvador rather than to a third country, and that federal courts had no power to command officials to retrieve him once he was in custody by a foreign government overseas.
    ……….
    The court’s brief order was unsigned, as is typical in emergency matters. But Justice Sonia Sotomayor, joined by fellow liberal Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, appended a statement excoriating the administration’s position.

    “Instead of hastening to correct its egregious error, the Government dismissed it as an ‘oversight,’” she wrote. “The Government’s argument, moreover, implies that it could deport and incarcerate any person, including U. S. citizens, without legal consequence, so long as it does so before a court can intervene.”
    ………..
    The government centered much of its argument on its inability to force the El Salvador government to return Abrego Garcia, and contended that it was an infringement of the president’s authority for a court to require him to “effectuate” the man’s return.

    Thursday’s order said that “the intended scope of the ‘effectuate’ in the District Court’s order is, however, unclear,” and should be construed as meaning “facilitate.”

    That was the course recommended previously on Monday by Fourth Circuit Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson III, who observed that in immigration cases, the government generally is required to “facilitate” the return of deported migrants who subsequently prevail in pending immigration cases.
    ………..
    Abrego Garcia was not deported under the enemies act, but inadvertently included on a flight manifest that should have had only people cleared for deportation through regular immigration proceedings, Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials said.
    ………..
    ………..
    The government contends that the Beltsville, Md., man is a member of the Salvadoran gang MS-13, which the Trump administration designated as a foreign terrorist organization. Abrego Garcia, who has never been charged with a crime, is married to a U.S. citizen, and worked as a sheet metal apprentice. He denies belonging to MS-13. Earlier this week, a federal appeals court said the allegation of gang membership was unsupported.
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  88. Given their insistence that they are unable to force the El Salvadorean government to release Garcia, we’ll see if this is the court order that the Administration chooses to defy.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  89. What I want to see is the Supreme Court realizing that the Presidential immunity decision was wrong then and is wrong now and say so first chance it gets.

    The malevolence of this Administration plumbs the depths of the Abyss.

    nk (bb1548)

  90. What I want to see is the Supreme Court realizing that the Presidential immunity decision was wrong then and is wrong now and say so first chance it gets.

    Unlikely to happen.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  91. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/10/2025 @ 4:57 pm

    Link to the per curiam opinion.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  92. This decision is the first piece of reassuring news i’ve heard in five and a half months.

    Let’s see if the administration complies.

    aphrael (140dd3)

  93. Career suicide :

    Just days after Vice President JD Vance’s March visit to Pituffik Space Base in Greenland, the installation commander sent out an email to the base distancing it from Vance’s criticism of Denmark and its oversight of the territory, Military.com has learned.

    Col. Susan Meyers, the commander of the 821st Space Base Group who also oversees the Pentagon’s northernmost military base, sent a March 31 message to all personnel at Pituffik seemingly aimed at generating unity among the airmen and Guardians, as well as the Canadians, Danes and Greenlanders who work there, following Vance’s appearance. She wrote that she “spent the weekend thinking about Friday’s visit — the actions taken, the words spoken, and how it must have affected each of you.”

    “I do not presume to understand current politics, but what I do know is the concerns of the U.S. administration discussed by Vice President Vance on Friday are not reflective of Pituffik Space Base,” Meyers wrote in the email, which was communicated to Military.com.

    The emailed remarks, confirmed as accurate to Military.com by the Space Force, mark a rare pushback within the ranks of the Trump administration’s repeated criticism and critiques of NATO members and longtime allies. A source familiar with the email said it was sent to all base personnel, including those from Denmark and Greenland on the installation.
    …………

    If Col. Susan Meyers hasn’t been fired yet she soon will be.

    Rip Murdock (75b245)

  94. If Col. Susan Meyers hasn’t been fired yet she soon will be.

    Rip Murdock (75b245) — 4/10/2025 @ 7:11 pm

    Apparently she was relieved of command today.

    Rip Murdock (75b245)

  95. @88 “The government contends that the Beltsville, Md., man”

    LOL

    He lives in America, so I guess he’s an American man.

    lloyd (84c606)

  96. Apparently she was relieved of command today.

    Competence will lose to loyalty every time and when we go to war it will be with kiss-asses in charge.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  97. @97 As a member of the military on duty, she’s incompetent for involving herself in a political matter.

    lloyd (84c606)

  98. Apparently she was relieved of command today.

    Competence will lose to loyalty every time and when we go to war it will be with kiss-asses in charge.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/10/2025 @ 8:29 pm

    Relieving Col. Myers of command was the correct decision. As commander she had no right to publicly criticize the Administration. See also the forced resignation in 2010 of Gen. Stanley McChrystal over his (and his staff) comments about Obama, then VP Biden, other White House officials in Rolling Stone.

    She wasn’t a policymaker; she was a subordinate whose opinions don’t matter. If she objected to the Administration’s Greenland policy or VP Vance’s comments, she should have kept her mouth shut or resigned.

    Rip Murdock (75b245)

  99. As shocking as it is for me to agree with lloyd on anything, I agree in this case. Unless we’re at the point where the President is issuing illegal orders to the military, for a military commander to publically disagree with the administration in the way that she did here is *not ok*, and she was rightly asked to resign.

    aphrael (dbf41f)

  100. It’s kind of a shame because it’s actually good leadership for the person running our military operation in Greenland to try to smooth over the hurt feelings of our hosts, and to try and remediate their understandable fear of us (and our military operation) caused by our government. But it’s not the kind of thing that can be done by a military official. This is why we have diplomats.

    aphrael (dbf41f)

  101. …….. and she was rightly asked to resign.

    aphrael (dbf41f) — 4/11/2025 @ 2:14 am

    She wasn’t “asked to resign”; she was fired.

    Rip Murdock (75b245)

  102. Pituffik Space Base Is another one of those bases renamed by Democrats. It used to be called Thule. Had to give it an Inuit name, because… who knows. Because we need Inuit names in a country its inhabitants still call Greenland.

    lloyd (84c606)

  103. The judge is fairly confident that informant lied, or was talking about another person,because he said that the man was associated with MS-13 in New York, and he never lived in New York.

    Sammy Finkelman (8620ee)

  104. Relieved of command is neither fired nor resigned. Patton was relieved of command for a while for slapping the soldier with shell shock.

    nk (4df54d)

  105. @99

    She wasn’t a policymaker; she was a subordinate whose opinions don’t matter. If she objected to the Administration’s Greenland policy or VP Vance’s comments, she should have kept her mouth shut or resigned.

    Rip Murdock (75b245) — 4/10/2025 @ 8:53 pm

    Same goes for any subordinate positions in the Executive branch.

    whembly (b7cc46)

  106. @104 Whether he is or isn’t MS-13 is irrelevant as to his legal status.

    Once he’s returned at taxpayer expense to the country he entered illegally, my advice to Mr. Garcia is that he self deport to a country of his own choosing rather than wait for the administration to choose another country for him.

    lloyd (84c606)

  107. nk (4df54d) — 4/11/2025 @ 6:53 am

    Patton was relieved of command for a while for slapping the soldier with shell shock.

    Then Operation Fortitude took advantage of tht to make him the commander of n imaginary army

    hat’s why his speech to his real soldiers i France after D-Day WAS SECRET.

    Sammy Finkelman (44ac94)

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