Patterico's Pontifications

4/7/2025

Self Protection And Protecting Careers

Filed under: General — Dana @ 4:57 pm

[guest post by Dana]

Nothing we don’t already know, arguing against it would be to argue in vain:

Since 2015, every time it looked as if Trump’s goose was cooked (Access Hollywood, impeachment, Jan 6th, indictments, etc), he found a way to come back and succeed. This is why so many Rs in Congress are willing to give him benefit of the doubt on tariffs.

Those who pulled the trigger too soon (denouncing Access Hollywood, criticizing his Jan. 6th actions; assuming he’d never win nomination in ‘24), are either no longer in Congress or have been thoroughly chastened.

If nervous R’s try to push-back on Trump and/or try and distance themselves from his policies, they risk backlash in their CD’s/states from the base, esp, if Trump’s tariff gamble turns out to be less than the disaster markets expect.

Plus, there’s a chance that the courts ultimately step in and invalidate Trump’s actions. That too is a reason for worried R’s to hold their powder.

If economy does indeed slip into a recession, GOP members will feel the brunt of the anger in midterms, but running away from Trump won’t make their re-election prospects any better.

All of this is to say that we should expect to see R’s stick with Trump, even as the markets convulse more.

I think this cowardly and self-serving description of Congressional Republicans is correct. Even giving Trump the benefit of the doubt on tariffs is a self-serving decision to protect their own political futures. He’s so smart and clever, he got away with murder thn surely he’ll get away with crashing the economy too! Shameful.

—Dana

Comments (38)

38 Responses to “Self Protection And Protecting Careers”

Hello.
Dana (f44f27) — 4/7/2025 @ 4:57 pm
xkcd explains the tariff standoff
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 5:26 pm
Some Congressmen can’t do that. Consider David Valadao, who represents an R+1 farming district in CA. Cooke calls it the median district in the nation. Valadao did not support Donald Trump in 2016 and voted for the J6 impeachment. He gets little benefit from standing by Trump.

This analysis assumes that MAGA decides who gets the nomination or who wins the district, but in any number of close-run districts this just isn’t true. Usually a party’s centrist members have a lot of leeway, but in the current Congress even 5 votes can make the difference.

The HFC destroyed Paul Ryan in 2018 and with him any hope of dialing back Obamacare. They then destroyed Kevin McCarthy in 2023. There is no guarantee that the same won’t happen to Speaker Johnson, or to a Johnson attempt to defend these tariffs should even 5 GOP Congressmen find their constituents demand it.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 5:45 pm
As long as Johnson is backed by Trump and the Freedom Caucus he has really nothing to fear. “Moderate” Republicans in Congress don’t have a viable candidate to replace him that also can get votes from the crazy wing of the party. And Johnson announcing that he won’t bring up the Trade Review Act (assuming it gets out of the Senate) pretty much kills any attempts to claw back tariff authority from the President.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/7/2025 @ 5:59 pm
They don’t need a candidate to remove Johnson. They just need a handful who will refuse to approve any candidate who will continue to stonewall on tariffs.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:06 pm
And, of course, any such fight raises the profile of other Congressmen back in their home districts on the tariff issue. There are enough GOP and independent voters who abhor these tariffs to make any Congressman (who doesn’t have a lock) reconsider.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:09 pm
They don’t need a candidate to remove Johnson. They just need a handful who will refuse to approve any candidate who will continue to stonewall on tariffs.

Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:06 pm

I doubt you will find enough Republicans in the House to “vacate the chair” to begin with. And even if someone was elected who allowed the Trade Review Act to come to the floor, there’s no guarantee of a veto-proof majority.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:13 pm
I doubt you will find enough Republicans in the House to “vacate the chair” to begin with

I expect it will be fairly easy to find 15-20 Republicans whose Republican constituents detest these tariffs. Every business owner who buys or sells overseas will have a poor reaction. And those are who funds GOP congressional campaigns.

“Congressman, Hometown BMW on line 3”

there’s no guarantee of a veto-proof majority.

There’s no guarantee of much in this life. But little baby steps.

..

You seem really focused on the whole nothing-we-can-do meme.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:18 pm
The economy has been in a recession since the Wuhan Flu was released. No amount of government spending can paper over the truth. We need to shrink the size of government, not just keep playing musical chairs hoping to die before the music stops.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:19 pm
You seem really focused on the whole nothing-we-can-do meme.

Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:18 pm

Just pointing the real-life obstacles to pie-in-the-sky thinking.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:20 pm
pie-in-the-sky thinking

Translation: seeking solutions instead of excuses.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:39 pm
Removing Johnson as Speaker won’t have any impact on Trump’s ability or authority to impose tariffs. It would just lead to the same chaos that ended when was elected Speaker. The worst that could happen would be for a handful of Republicans to vote for Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker. No thanks.
Rip Murdock (75b245) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:41 pm
pie-in-the-sky thinking

Translation: seeking solutions instead of excuses.

Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:39 pm

Like suggesting impeachment when there is absolutely no chance of it reaching the floor for a vote or a Senate conviction? That’s not a definition of a “solution”; it’s mental pleasuring.
Rip Murdock (75b245) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:44 pm
LA Times lists several GOP Reps who are really unhappy.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said Sunday that he would introduce a companion bill [to Grassley’s Senate bill] in the House, so it could advance in both chambers.

Already, several Republican lawmakers — including California Rep. David Valadao, a Hanford Republican who holds the precarious swing seat in the 22nd Congressional District — suggested support for the legislation. Valadao said on News Nation on Sunday that he needed “to take a better look” at Bacon’s proposal, but it “is something that should be considered.”

“I’ve always been someone who supports giving power back to the Congress the way our founding fathers originally designed,” Valadao said. “And this is one of those powers that belongs in the Congress, and we should be looking at that in, I think, a very serious manner.”

Valadao represents an agriculturally rich swath of the Central Valley, home to acres of almond farms and lemon groves. The congressman said he’d heard from constituents on both sides of the tariffs debate — those whose exports are receiving a stiff reception from other countries, and those who wished for higher tariffs on competing industries. As a dairy farmer himself, Valadao said he used to lobby lawmakers for tariffs against countries whose labor standards or regulations differed from the U.S., making it harder for American companies to compete.

“They’re competing with me at the grocery store shelf, and it was frustrating,” Valadao said. “I think [tariffs] should be used as a tool to get to a level playing field.”

Other support for the legislation trickled in Monday, as markets continued to drop and bankers talked of a looming recession. Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) said Monday on Fox Business that she wants “to give the president time” to see the effect of tariffs. But, she acknowledged, “Being able to have input on these tariffs is extremely important.”

A spokesperson for Rep. Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills), who represents another swing congressional district in California, said the representative was “encouraged” by news from the White House that countries have been lining up to negotiate relief from the tariffs.

“Rep. Kim knows the importance of free trade for Southern California’s economy and believes we can strengthen U.S. industries while promoting free trade with like-minded allies and partners,” spokesperson Callie Strock said in a statement. “While tariffs can be a strategic tool, Rep. Kim is concerned about the impact long-term tariffs can have on families and small businesses already hurting from high taxes and living costs.”

Another California Republican, Rep. Tom McClintock, posted on X last week, “Our trade objective must be: ZERO tariffs, ZERO subsidies and ZERO non-tariff barriers. Tariffs always harm whatever country imposes them. Their only justification is to leverage trading partners to adopt free trade agreements. I hope this is where the President is going.”

Little baby steps.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:56 pm
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said Sunday that he would introduce a companion bill [to Grassley’s Senate bill] in the House, so it could advance in both chambers.

Already, several Republican lawmakers — including California Rep. David Valadao, a Hanford Republican who holds the precarious swing seat in the 22nd Congressional District — suggested support for the legislation. Valadao said on News Nation on Sunday that he needed “to take a better look” at Bacon’s proposal, but it “is something that should be considered.”

Too bad Johnson has already put the kibosh on Bacon’s bill.
Rip Murdock (75b245) — 4/7/2025 @ 6:59 pm
218 signatures on a petition brings anything to the floor.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 7:26 pm
Yes, discharge petitions don’t happen a lot, but most of the time the House is not so evenly divided and most of the time the President is not so far off the leash.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 7:27 pm
I think the House Democrats are going to let Republicans sweat awhile before they do anything to stop Trump’s tariffs. As the majority party it’s the Republicans problem.
Rip Murdock (75b245) — 4/7/2025 @ 7:49 pm
I doubt it. It would set off a civil war among Republicans and focus Trump’s recrimination on his own side. Why would they avoid such a wonderful circus?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 7:52 pm
218 signatures on a petition brings anything to the floor.

Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 7:26 pm

Johnson just killed a discharge petition regarding proxy voting by members who are new parents that had 218 signatures. It’s not automatic.
Rip Murdock (75b245) — 4/7/2025 @ 7:55 pm
It would set off a civil war among Republicans and focus Trump’s recrimination on his own side. Why would they avoid such a wonderful circus?

Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/7/2025 @ 7:52 pm

That’s my point. Democrats will stay on sidelines and let Republicans deal with any tariff fallout (since it was their party leader that started the imbroglio.) The only way the Democrats would be involved is if they could wring concessions out of Republicans.

The Democrats will do the same thing when it comes to the debt ceiling-force the Republicans to try and pass it on their own. Except the Republicans can’t do that, as there some Reps who won’t vote for a debt increase even if their life depended on it.
Rip Murdock (75b245) — 4/7/2025 @ 8:05 pm
Trump represents trumpsters who have taken over the republican party. “You knew I was a snake before you let me in!” Republicans in congress and else ware can represent trumpsters now 80% of the party or get voted out. look at nikki haley. 20% are never trumpers, economic libertarians or wealthy traditional conservatives. And 20% my be high.
asset (762a72) — 4/7/2025 @ 8:46 pm
Johnson just killed a discharge petition regarding proxy voting

No, he cut a deal with the mover of the motion to accept a compromise. Not the same thing as “killing” it. At all.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/8/2025 @ 8:52 am
there some Reps who won’t vote for a debt increase even if their life depended on it.

Mainly because it doesn’t. They are in R+40 districts and no one would dare primary them there.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/8/2025 @ 8:54 am
Johnson just killed a discharge petition regarding proxy voting

No, he cut a deal with the mover of the motion to accept a compromise. Not the same thing as “killing” it. At all.

Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/8/2025 @ 8:52 am

As there will be no vote on the discharge petition to allow proxy voting, Johnson effectively killed it. “Paired voting” is not proxy voting.

A fiery fight between Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) over remote voting for new parents fizzled out over the weekend with a compromise to bring back vote pairing, a system dating back to the 1800s that would essentially require a Democrat to willingly cast off their vote to offset a GOP absence.
………
……… The system allows an absent member to coordinate with a present representative on the opposite side of a vote to announce that the present member is forming a “pair” with the absent one. For example, if a Republican was planning to vote “no” on a measure, they’d look to pair with a Democrat to vote “present” to offset the absence.
………
This poses the question: Will Republicans be able to find a Democrat wanting to pair with them and cancel out their vote?
………
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/8/2025 @ 9:14 am
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/8/2025 @ 9:14 am

More:

The decision to switch from new parent proxy voting to vote pairing was an unexpected development on Sunday, after (Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL)) swore for weeks she was “right” and Johnson was “wrong.” She also stressed that she went through the proper House channels to force a vote on her bill through a discharge petition, and her legislation deserved a “fair shot.”

Had her bill gone to the floor, with the support she garnered from Democrats and a handful of Republicans, the measure would have likely passed. But allowing it to come to the floor in the first place spelled danger for Johnson, after hard-liners promised to hold up floor proceedings if the proxy voting bill got a vote.
………
Luna told reporters on Monday that she faced the reality that those hard-liners would not allow her bill to come up “under any circumstance” and, this weekend, reached a point where she just wanted to protect the discharge petition system. Republicans had sought to alter the process in the Rules Committee last week, ultimately leading to its failure.
………
“If you have rules, and then you don’t adhere to the rules because you don’t like the outcome of them, then there are no rules,” Luna said. “So that’s effectively what’s happening, and you’re going to see the same faction that was vocal against this going to be vocal against the president’s agenda this week.”

The House will vote on a procedural rule for the SAVE Act and No Rogue Rulings Act on Tuesday afternoon. Tucked into the rule is language that would table Luna’s proxy voting bill, as well as install vote pairing.
………
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/8/2025 @ 9:21 am
“Paired voting” is not proxy voting.

No, it’s a compromise that serves much the same function. The petition was not killed, as it forced the Speaker to change the rules to accommodate members needs. Without the petition he would not have done that.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/8/2025 @ 9:37 am
It is interesting though how much the HFC prefers to be in the minority. They will probably force that, too.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/8/2025 @ 9:39 am
No, it’s a compromise that serves much the same function. The petition was not killed, as it forced the Speaker to change the rules to accommodate members needs. Without the petition he would not have done that.

Kevin M (a9545f) — 4/8/2025 @ 9:37 am

You must have missed this sentance:

The House will vote on a procedural rule for the SAVE Act and No Rogue Rulings Act on Tuesday afternoon. Tucked into the rule is language that would table Luna’s proxy voting bill, as well as install vote pairing.

The “compromise” only works if the absent member can find someone who will be voting the opposite way.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/8/2025 @ 10:03 am
Paired voting no longer exists? I used to dee it listed all the time in roll call votes printed in the newspaper (who voted yes or no)
Sammy Finkelman (7a414a) — 4/8/2025 @ 11:01 am
Threare always people who are necessarily absent, You can’t guarantee there will be equal numbers (or 2-1 in case of votes requiring 2.3 to pass) of members on each side. Sometimes a member agrees not to vote to facilitate it. This can only be on a scheduled vote, I think. But those are the important ones.
Sammy Finkelman (7a414a) — 4/8/2025 @ 11:05 am
Seems to acknowledge that he is more popular than congress?
Joe (584b3d) — 4/8/2025 @ 11:42 am
The problem is not our representatives in Congress. The problem is the electorate. If the electorate were wiser, Congress would change course immediately. Alas, voters don’t want to hear about reality; they prefer lies.

The problem is precisely that in politics, public relations must take precedence over reality, for without successful PR, you don’t get elected in the first place.

Richard Feynman
norcal (cdf133) — 4/8/2025 @ 4:48 pm
And no, Trump apologists, that doesn’t mean I want to do away with democracy. It means we all need to work towards a more enlightened electorate.
norcal (cdf133) — 4/8/2025 @ 4:49 pm
Instead of tariffs, I wish Trump had spent his adult life fixated on ending Daylight Savings Time.
DRJ (a84ee2) — 4/8/2025 @ 5:06 pm
Swap “Daylight Savings Time” with “Standard Time”, DRJ, and I’m with you!

I like more sunlight in the evenings, but then again, I’m not a morning person, as proven by the timing of my comments on this blog. 😉
norcal (cdf133) — 4/8/2025 @ 5:13 pm
Handwringing:

…………
Republicans on Capitol Hill remain largely in lockstep with President Donald Trump, holding back on legislation that could give Congress back its once-exclusive authority to issue tariffs. But many worry about paying a political price if the economy falters and are holding out hope that the tariffs are a temporary negotiating tactic.

Their unease, which extends from moderate swing votes to staunch Trump allies, was especially clear Tuesday as senators questioned the president’s trade representative, Jamieson Greer, in a Finance Committee hearing. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) told The Washington Post afterward that he was not reassured by Greer’s testimony and doesn’t think many Republicans were.

“I don’t quite understand the strategy,” Johnson said, “and I’m not sure anybody else does.”
………..
Other Republicans also used the hearing to communicate their reservations — however gently. Greer said the administration is open to negotiating with other countries but declined to put a timeline on those talks and said: “Our large and persistent trade deficit has been over 30 years in the making, and it will not be resolved overnight.”

Greer also said Trump has “been clear” with him and others that he does not intend to give exemptions to his tariffs — prompting Johnson to say he was “disappointed.”
………..
(Sen.) Johnson said Tuesday that he does not think Congress has veto-proof majorities to counter Trump’s tariff policies.

Asked about Congress voting to restrain the president’s tariff authority, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said that it’s not the House’s “decision to make” but that the chamber is always open to finding solutions — with Trump’s input.

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-North Carolina), who chairs the House GOP’s campaign arm, dismissed the proposal to restrict Trump’s tariff powers: “That doesn’t have the votes in the House. That’s not going to happen.”
…………
“I think you’ve got to give him room to do what they need to do,” (Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD)) told reporters on Tuesday. He said he hopes the president’s tariffs are successful and are lifted after Trump works out deals with various countries.
………..
Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-South Dakota), who represents the state at-large, says that some of his constituents are concerned by the tariffs, “but there are also a big group of people who want to give the president a little deference and some time to execute this plan.”

“He campaigned on this,” he added.
…………
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/8/2025 @ 6:17 pm
Wall Street futures: down, down, down:

U.S. stock futures and Asian equity markets dropped as President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on nearly 100 nations took effect. That includes a 104% tariff on Chinese imports. Contracts tied to the S&P 500, Dow industrials and Nasdaq-100 indexes fell between 1.3% and 2%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell more than 3%.

Trump defended the tariffs at a Tuesday dinner with House Republicans and said levies on pharmaceutical products made abroad will be announced “very shortly.”
………..
Rip Murdock (75b245) — 4/8/2025 @ 9:23 pm

4/7/2025

Self Protection And Protecting Careers

38 Responses to “Self Protection And Protecting Careers”

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