Patterico's Pontifications

3/27/2025

Russia and the U.S. vs Ukraine and Europe

Filed under: General — Dana @ 4:53 pm

[guest post by Dana]

This says it all:

Ceasefires and negotiations are a way of telling Russia you are weak. Dictators act only from strength and assume others do the same. If you wanted them to stop and were strong enough to stop them, you would. If you don’t, it’s a green light.

Realize this is not a failure of Trump’s negotiations. This is the actual point of Trump’s negotiations, to protect Russia & Putin and to divide Ukraine into pieces and assets. There is no longer a charitable interpretation. It’s Russia & USA vs Ukraine and Europe.

I’ll keep repeating this because I still see people speaking as though Trump has been tricked by Putin or that he and his incompetent administration are just ignorant. No. Trump & Musk are taking instructions and working to save Putin & Russia and to destroy and loot Ukraine.

There is no US national interest in aligning with war criminal Putin’s nuclear gas station mafia state. If it were about saving money, he could cut off funding. But he’s also trying to lift sanctions on Russia, rehabilitate Putin & threaten Ukraine into not fighting back.

When President Zelensky was asked what he thought the real reason was for the pause in U.S. support, he said:

I think Russia managed to influence some members of the White House team through information. Their signal to the Americans was that the Ukrainians do not want to end the war, and something should be done to force them. Of course, that was disinformation. It’s not true. The Russians don’t want [to end the war], and we see that now, as we’ve always seen it. But this situation arose, most likely, due to a lack of dialogue [between the U.S. and Ukraine.]

Second, I think the Americans wanted to demonstrate to the Russians that they are in the middle. They are not with us. In general, I don’t think the American team was hiding the fact that they want to be mediators rather than standing with one of the sides. We told them, Well, okay, if you’re not on our side, then at least stay in the middle. So if the Russians don’t accept the full ceasefire that you proposed, we want to see additional sanctions. They don’t need to be in place for long, just like the pause in our case wasn’t. But you need to demonstrate that. We are really expecting the American side to take these steps.

Further, Zelensky was asked: It strikes me that, in the peace process so far, as the U.S. has pursued it under Trump, the carrots are reserved for Russia, while the Ukrainians get the stick. Is that how you have felt?

[Laughs] Well, look, if the carrot is poisoned, then thank God. Maybe that’s the sneakiness of this diplomacy… I think that if the American administration would take stronger steps, then Putin would have a better reaction. The Russians would respond more quickly. I think that, as soon as Trump returned to the presidency, the pace of his reactions was very quick and unexpected. His rhetoric, his statements. I think at that moment the Russians got really scared. When he started talking about sanctions, about his other steps. His moves are very unexpected for them. And for them anything unexpected is worrying.

In the long game, the Russians are fairly strong. They have an authoritarian system. Under authoritarianism everything is bureaucratic. It might move slowly, but it moves. But swift actions are another story. That’s why I feel we do not have enough strong, swift actions.

—Dana

Comments (27)

27 Responses to “Russia and the U.S. vs Ukraine and Europe”

Hello.
Dana (fc4692) — 3/27/2025 @ 4:53 pm
Of course:

The U.S. said it would help Russia boost agricultural exports and restore its access to payments systems, after the Kremlin demanded the easing of Western sanctions in return for a cease-fire in the Black Sea.

The announcement, which followed two days of talks involving the U.S., Russia and Ukraine, sets up a potential standoff between America and its allies in Europe, who imposed some of the sanctions at issue.

Russia said it would only comply with a Black Sea truce upon the lifting of some banking sanctions, which European nations have vowed to keep in place. …….
……….
Moscow said major Russian banks involved in the food and fertilizer trade would need to be reconnected to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT, payment network, singling out Rosselkhozbank, a state-owned bank that deals with Russian agribusiness, but suggesting that other banks should also have their access restored.

Western sanctions never targeted Russian grain or agricultural exports directly, because that is largely prohibited under international law, and out of concern that such sanctions would raise food prices and increase global hunger. But Russia says its agricultural exports were affected by the European port and banking sanctions……..
……….
“Putin’s endgame is clear—he wants to coax Trump into lifting sanctions on Russian banks and energy companies to enable the Kremlin to pull in the hard currency it desperately needs,” said Edward Fishman, senior research scholar at Columbia University and a former senior U.S. sanctions official. “But there appears to be daylight between Moscow and Washington. The Russian statement goes much further on sanctions relief than the U.S. statement.”

………. A senior EU official said that Europeans remain determined to keep up the pressure on the Russian economy…….

It wasn’t clear what benefits the deal confers on Ukraine. ……..

It couldn’t be established whether the agreement meant that Russia would curtail its missile and drone strikes on infrastructure in Ukrainian Black Sea ports, which officials in Kyiv had said they wanted to be part of any deal.
……….
Last week, Russia launched one of its largest drone attacks of the war on the Black Sea port city of Odesa, injuring at least three people and demonstrating the damage it can do on the eve of cease-fire negotiations.
……….

Europe shows some backbone:

The European Union has emphatically rebuffed the Kremlin’s demand that the Russian Agricultural Bank, known as Rosselkhozbank, and other financial entities involved in the agrifood trade be re-connected to SWIFT as a pre-condition to halt attacks in the Black Sea and ensure safe navigation, arguing the continued invasion of Ukraine makes it impossible to grant sanctions relief, be it broad or targeted.
………..
“The end of Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified aggression in Ukraine and the unconditional withdrawal of all Russian military forces from the entire territory of Ukraine will be one of the main pre-conditions to amend or lift sanctions,” a spokesperson for the European Commission said on Thursday.

“Russia must demonstrate genuine political will to end its illegal and unprovoked war of aggression,” the spokesperson added. “Any peace deal or any discussion on this must lead to a just and long-lasting peace in Ukraine.”
……….
“We often hear spin from Russia that our sanctions and our other steps aren’t having any impact on their economy. Strange then that they’re trying to get us to roll back on them,” another Commission spokesperson said on Thursday.

After a meeting of the coalition of the willing in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron categorically ruled out any sanctions relief “We unanimously agreed that now is not the time for lifting sanctions in any way. There can be no lifting of sanctions before peace has been established,” Macron said on Thursday.
……….
……….(T)he full reconnection to SWIFT will depend exclusively on EU approval, giving the bloc leverage in the negotiations.
……….
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/27/2025 @ 5:37 pm
The mineral deal is a financial rape and plunder of Ukraine, and Ukraine gets no security guarantees.

Zelenskyy is in a no-win position, but he should reject it.

The Canadian prime minister’s position about by country…

“The old relationship we had with the United States based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation is over.”

…is correct, and Europe may go there, too.
Trump is a Baddie, turning my country into a Baddie state.
Paul Montagu (97a04c) — 3/27/2025 @ 6:15 pm
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/27/2025 @ 5:37 pm

More:

………..
For President Trump, “the problem is how to continue to portray these steps as successes,” said Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and a national security adviser on Russia during the George W. Bush administration. “The closer you look, there’s less to this agreement than meets the eye.”
………….
…………. Though Trump aides touted tentative agreements over energy infrastructure and the Black Sea as accomplishments by the world’s greatest dealmaker, they were in fact deals previously discussed by Moscow and Kyiv.
…………
The first deal between the U.S. and Russia was meant to protect the energy infrastructure of both countries from attack, drawing from extensive talks last year in Qatar. At that time, the two sides spent weeks working out details of an agreement until Ukrainian forces crossed into Russia’s Kursk region, causing the Russians to withdraw from talks and reject any agreement.

Likewise, the prospect of Black Sea security was discussed at length in the first year of the war when Turkey and the United Nations worked out the Black Sea Grain Initiative with the two sides. It eventually fell apart after Russia said it wasn’t helping Moscow boost its grain exports.

……….. Ukraine’s ability to neutralize Russia’s Black Sea fleet gave Kyiv some ability to still move its grain relatively unhindered from port.
………..
………. Trump’s push to reach a deal quickly has made his negotiators vulnerable to Russian demands, often at the expense of the Ukrainian position.
………….
Rip Murdock (f259db) — 3/27/2025 @ 7:25 pm
Trump is amoral. He doesn’t care that a bully is trying to devour a neighboring country, because it’s no skin off his nose.

Besides, he would like to do the same to Canada and Greenland.

Sadly, his worshipers have adopted his attitude.
norcal (cdf133) — 3/27/2025 @ 7:58 pm
Only a part of U.S. and really only a part of russia. Stefanik nomination pulled. Trump and leader johnson fear they could lose seat in by election as they lost pa. state senate seat in district that went trump by 16% Next week floriduh house races that trump carried by 30 points. 2018 all over again.
asset (ad706f) — 3/27/2025 @ 8:52 pm
The sad thing is that the Republicans could stop this at any point. They could impeach and convict Trump and Vance in a one two punch that puts Johnson in the Presidency. Then he could dump out the entire cabinet and start all over again. The republicans would retain the presidency and have 3 year to fix their stuff. It’ll never happen, but they could and it would be better than this visible from space slow motion train wreck.
Nic (120c94) — 3/27/2025 @ 10:41 pm
Boy leftists love singing the same note over and over again. What’s the definition of insanity again?
NJRob (eb56c3) — 3/28/2025 @ 4:53 am
Nic, Republican’s don’t want to stop it. This; the betrayal of American values, the lies, the petty retribution is what they voted for. They overwhelming supported it in the primary and a plurality, almost half, of the lawful voters chose this in the general election.
Time (9b53b0) — 3/28/2025 @ 5:59 am
NJRob, wondered if you saw my question from the other thread about what part of Trump’s handling of the Signal issue you most approve of?
Time (9b53b0) — 3/28/2025 @ 6:00 am
Time,

I’m not here to parrot your wishes. I already said it was stupid to use Signal. Grow up.

But you’ve gone whole hog lefty like many others. I wonder how hard you’ll be cheering on AOC next election.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 3/28/2025 @ 6:07 am
Rob, So you can’t think of anything he’s done on the issue that you particularly approve of or can point to as an example of good leadership.

We’re in agreement, I can’t think of anything commendable either. His leadership on this has been appalling.
Time (9b53b0) — 3/28/2025 @ 6:32 am
Republican politicians cannot buck Trump.

If they do, they will not be reelected. At the very least.

They are worse off (and in many ways just plain worse) then the fallen women at Trump’s grandfather’s brothel, with nowhere else to go, and no one else to take them in, and in danger of a beating from their pimp as well as from their erstwhile clientele if they try to escape.
nk (82329b) — 3/28/2025 @ 6:42 am
NK, why would they buck him? THIS IS WHAT THE MEDIAN GOP PRIMARY VOTER WANTS!

What we’re seeing isn’t an aberration, it’s the policy preferences of the median voter.
Time (9b53b0) — 3/28/2025 @ 7:09 am
I think him moving forward and not letting you NeverTrumpers and lefties control his administrative decisions is an example of good leadership.

Carry on trolling Time
NJRob (0a91ae) — 3/28/2025 @ 8:04 am
Boy leftists love singing the same note over and over again. What’s the definition of insanity again?

Why are you with the terrorists, Rob?
Paul Montagu (97a04c) — 3/28/2025 @ 8:13 am
@15, it honestly wasn’t Trolling….I wanted to know what you liked about how he handled it. I assumed you didn’t like anything he’d done. Which was reasonable. But I see I was wrong….which is sad.
Time (9b53b0) — 3/28/2025 @ 8:57 am
The real horror here is that the US has all kinds of leverage on the very desperate Putin, but isn’t using it. Putin needs to get out of this war with a “victory” but the degree of that “victory” is less important than getting out of his economic hole.

Right now, Russia is well on the way to becoming a Chinese client state, with China their only viable trading partner. China is happy with that — all that natural wealth (and land) in the Russian East offers endless opportunity and resources.

Of course, China doesn’t want to pay much or find itself constrained by “rules” and as long as they are Russia’s sole lifeline they can call the tune.

Trump could make them an offer they don’t refuse. Withdrawal from all but Crimea, which Ukraine cedes, return of displaced persons, and acceptance of Ukraine acceding to the EU but not NATO. For this Russia gets restored access to the West and a freer hand in developing the East. Ukraine is rebuilt from funds that are intentionally ambiguous and not all Russia’s.

But this isn’t happening. Is Putin trying to outstupid Trump?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/28/2025 @ 9:18 am
Boy leftists love singing the same note over and over again. What’s the definition of insanity again?

Voting for Trump 3 times?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/28/2025 @ 9:21 am
I think him moving forward and not letting you NeverTrumpers and lefties control his administrative decisions is an example of good leadership.

Using NeverTrump correctly in a sentence.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/28/2025 @ 9:23 am
@19 lmao!! That was hilarious. Wish I’d thought of it.
Time (44ba4c) — 3/28/2025 @ 9:32 am
Kevin,

Trump had a successful track record and is trying to enact policies I support. I’m happy to have voted for him and he’s exceeded my expectations. He’s made some mistakes, but I think only DeSantis would’ve done a better job.
NJRob (0a91ae) — 3/28/2025 @ 10:40 am
Trump had a successful track record and is trying to enact policies I support. I’m happy to have voted for him and he’s exceeded my expectations. He’s made some mistakes, but I think only DeSantis would’ve done a better job./s

Fixed it
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 3/28/2025 @ 10:49 am
Putin offers to agree to the Black Sea truce he just agreed to if important sanctions are reverse.

Meanwhile someone wrote in the New York Times that gradually increasing tariffs could be imposed on Russian oil (paid by buyers)

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/opinion/russia-ukraine-us-tariffs.html

The administration should impose sanctions on any company or individual — in any country — involved in a Russian oil and gas sale. Russia could avoid these so-called secondary sanctions by paying a per shipment fee to the United States Treasury. The payment would be called a Russian universal tariff, and it would start low but increase every week that passes without a peace deal.

…The secondary sanctions — if Russia does not make the required payments — would fall on all parties to the transaction, including the oil tanker owner, the insurer and the purchaser.
Recent evidence confirms that Indian and Chinese entities — whose nations import considerable oil from Russia and have not imposed their own penalties on the Russian economy over the war in Ukraine — do not want to be caught up in American sanctions, making this idea workable. Another factor in its favor: All such tanker traffic is tracked carefully by commercial parties and by U.S. authorities.

By Glenn Hubbard and Catherine Wolfram

Dr. Hubbard, a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, is a professor at Columbia University. Dr. Wolfram, a former deputy assistant secretary for climate and energy in the Treasury Department, is a professor at M.I.T.’s Sloan School of Management.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 3/28/2025 @ 12:29 pm
NJRob, your comment at 22 is understandable if not something I would agree with. What perplexes me is your weird inability to acknowledge that he has done anything less than perfection, and you need the characterize all opposition to him as being equivalent to a wild eyed adherence for communism.
Time (be30c1) — 3/28/2025 @ 2:38 pm
@22 You forgot to ad he is discrediting the corporate establishment donor class stooges like schumer and jefferies running the democrat party. Which is why I have to pretend to hate him as he helps AOC with her 2028 campaign.
asset (5c85c8) — 3/28/2025 @ 3:32 pm
@time@9 Like I said, it’ll never happen. Sigh.
Nic (120c94) — 3/28/2025 @ 4:45 pm

3/27/2025

Russia and the U.S. vs Ukraine and Europe

27 Responses to “Russia and the U.S. vs Ukraine and Europe”

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