Patterico's Pontifications

3/13/2025

We’re Not In The Best of Hands

Filed under: General — Dana @ 8:35 am

[guest post by Dana]

It’s disappointing to see so many commentators [and Trump supporters] assign some sort of genius grand strategy to Trump’s negotiating tactics in foreign policy. His tariff moves make no economic sense. Threatening to seize Greenland, Canada, the Panana Canal, and Gaza is nuts. Giving Putin everything he wants violates elementary principles of diplomacy. His job is to advance American security and economic interests. So far, I can’t think of a single concrete achievement toward these goals.

What else is there to say?

There is no genius-level grand strategy. There is no eight dimensional chess. There is only the impulsive decision-making and inflammatory rhetoric of a retaliatory nutjob. We are not in good hands. We are certainly not in the best of hands.

Russia has responded to the U.S. brokered 30-day ceasefire just how we knew they would:

Speaking on Russian state television, Ushakov dismissed a 30-day ceasefire as a mere “breather” for Ukrainian troops, emphasizing Moscow’s preference for substantive peace talks.

Ushakov reiterated Russia’s demands: Ukraine must recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and four southeastern regions, withdraw troops from lands claimed by Russia and pledge never to join NATO.” . . .

Moscow also seeks limits on Ukraine’s military, protections for Russian speakers and elections to replace Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

[Ed. Russia won’t stop their bombing and shelling and attacks on Ukraine and its effort subsume the sovereign nation. Russia won’t stop. Russia *must be stopped*]

This is the President weighing in today on, well, you’ll see:

The Globalist Wall Street Journal has no idea what they are doing or saying. They are owned by the polluted thinking of the European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of “screwing” the United States of America. Their (WSJ!) thinking is antiquated and weak, and very bad for the USA. But have no fear, we will WIN on everything!!! Egg prices are down, oil is down, interest rates are down, and TARIFF RELATED MONEY IS POURING INTO THE UNITED STATES. “The only thing you have to fear, is fear itself!”

The European Union, one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the World, which was formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States, has just put a nasty 50% Tariff on Whisky. If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES. This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.

—Dana

Comments (69)

69 Responses to “We’re Not In The Best of Hands”

Hello.
Dana (4bd0f1) — 3/13/2025 @ 8:36 am
HL Menkin was right
Time123 (3618b6) — 3/13/2025 @ 8:51 am
After a little over 2½ hours, the Dow is tanking, down 472. In the last month, it’s dropped over 3,800.

The markets are telling Trump that he’s being an economic buffoon on tariffs and his trade war, and a foreign policy traitor by alienating the free world on tariffs and cozying up to the biggest terrorist regime on the planet.
Paul Montagu (354e09) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:04 am
LOL! There are no Champagne makers in the United States.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:11 am
After a little over 2½ hours, the Dow is tanking, down 472. In the last month, it’s dropped over 3,800.

Of course. Putin’s (yes, I mean Putin) “justice” and “retribution” includes America’s economy as well as our national security being like the Soviet Union’s was in 1989; culminating in a relative handful of billionaire oligarchs lording over a Third World sh!thole with nukes.
nk (05fe3c) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:23 am
Putin is doing great so far. The west is fracturing and Trump is distracting himself with these stupid tariff fights.
Time123 (3618b6) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:27 am
It’s like olden days where sometimes you got Victoria and sometimes you got Mad King Ludwig.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:43 am
There are no Champagne makers in the United States.

By definition. But some of the stuff they make in the US tastes quite a bit like champagne.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:45 am
As I said, Trump will go too far. The pain will rise far enough that his threat to primary folks will be weak, if not courted. You can only burn so much political capital. Then you run out.

Or, as has been said: If something cannot go on, it won’t.

I cannot see this Presidency running the full term. A fresh Hell every week? People will get tired of it and then the knives come out.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:49 am
Egg prices are down

How would Trump know? I doubt he has ever seen an uncooked egg in his life.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:52 am
As I said, Trump will go too far. The pain will rise far enough that his threat to primary folks will be weak, if not courted. You can only burn so much political capital. Then you run out.

Or, as has been said: If something cannot go on, it won’t.

I cannot see this Presidency running the full term. A fresh Hell every week? People will get tired of it and then the knives come out.

Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:49 am

Lacking evidence on all points. Trump has the ultimate political capital, which is the full support of Republicans in Congress; or if that fails, the power of federal law enforcement.

“It would be a pity if the (SEC, FBI, Treasury Dept.) launched an investigation into your (Congressional campaign, major employer, family). I’m sure you will find a way to support me.”

Whether “the people” get tired of it is immaterial. I don’t see an impeachment by Republicans; it would be political suicide.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:59 am
Russia has responded to the U.S. brokered 30-day ceasefire just how we knew they would……

Actually, I’m sort of surprised. They have good reasons to support a 30-day ceasefire: Russia is winning in Kursk; they have ground out significant gains in Ukraine; it would have been an opportunity to do Trump a favor; and it would have added pressure on Ukraine to actually negotiate. Instead they have reiterated their maximalist demands.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2025 @ 10:07 am
I cannot see this Presidency running the full term. A fresh Hell every week? People will get tired of it and then the knives come out.

Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:49 am

I would agree if we had a parliamentary system of government, but we don’t. Public opinion only goes so far in our system; and also don’t think Trump would want to be seen as a quitter. He isn’t Richard Nixon.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2025 @ 10:09 am
The stock price of Trump’s media company continues to plummet. From a high of $51.51 per share on October 29th, it closed yesterday at $19.39, a drop of over 62%.

Meanwhile:

Devin Nunes earned $47 million in total compensation as CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group last year, although he won’t be able to get his hands on all of it until March 2027, according to a filing the company made with the Securities and Exchange Commission on (February 21st.)

In addition to his $1 million base salary, the former Republican congressman received a $600,000 bonus, $44.1 million in stock awards and $1.2 million in additional stock compensation for running the parent company of President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform.
……….
Nunes’ 2024 compensation marks a 6,200% increase from the $750,000 he earned in 2023, before the company went public.
……….
Trump Media’s net loss in 2024 (was $401 million), on $3.6 million in sales, according to an SEC filing made earlier (in February).

“Typically there’s some sort of correlation between how well a company is doing and the CEO’s pay, said Michelle Leder, the editor footnoted.com and an expert on SEC filings. “When a company loses over $400 million and gives its CEO a $44 million grant, you have to wonder what they’re being rewarded for.”
………..
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2025 @ 10:30 am
> I cannot see this Presidency running the full term

For *eight years* you have been predicting that at some point Trump will go too far and the Republicans will turn on him.

You’ve been wrong at *every point*.

Why would Republicans in the legislature turn against him? He’s giving them the destruction of state capacity they’ve always wanted, he’s screwing their enemies, and he’s backed by the richest man in the world who will bring the full force of his wealth against any one of them who turns on him.

As long as they keep forty one Senators after 2026, there’s *no way for this to be ended without their cooperation*, and they have every incentive possible to cooperate.
aphrael (dbf41f) — 3/13/2025 @ 11:11 am
Russia has responded to the U.S. brokered 30-day ceasefire just how we knew they would:

While I thought Russia would agree to a 30-day ceasefire from a PR perspective; they really have no reason to do so.

………
With its army advancing on the battlefield and retaking territory Ukraine had hoped to use as a bargaining chip, Russia has little incentive to stop the fighting.

“Putin doesn’t feel any pressure,” said Konstantin Sonin, a Russia expert who teaches at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. “Trump has no leverage over him, and he thinks he’s winning.”

Russia’s military said Thursday that it had retaken Sudzha, the biggest town held by Ukraine in the Kursk region, after recapturing a string of villages in recent days. Ukraine didn’t respond to a request for comment. Kyiv has been using Sudzha as a logistical hub to resupply troops in the area.
………
The rapid retreat of Ukraine’s forces in Kursk followed a pause in U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine …….

The loss of Ukraine’s toehold in Kursk, where at one point it had captured an area roughly the size of Los Angeles, would mark a significant defeat for Kyiv. Russia has thrown enormous resources into the campaign to recapture its territory, deploying North Korean troops and staging daring operations. One unit crawled through a disused section of a natural-gas pipeline this week to outflank Ukrainian troops defending Sudzha, with several dying of methane poisoning, according to pro-Kremlin war bloggers.
……….

More:

A

source close to the Kremlin stated that Russia may demand a halt to weapons supplies to Ukraine as a condition of agreeing to the temporary ceasefire, but did not specify whether such a halt would include all international weapons provisions to Ukraine or only those from select countries. Suspending US or other military assistance to Ukraine during a ceasefire would be extremely advantageous to Russia, which continues to receive critical supplies and assistance from Iran, North Korea, and the People’s Republic of China. Such an enormous concession would also destroy US leverage in future negotiations, in addition to violating the conditions under which Ukraine agreed to the ceasefire in the first place.

Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on March 12 that a source close to the Russian Presidential Administration stated that the Kremlin would “formally” give a “positive response” to the temporary ceasefire proposal but would also demand “impossible conditions” to which Ukraine cannot agree. The source stated that Putin wants to remove Ukraine from talks so that Russia can engage in negotiations with the United States alone while also “correcting the situation on the front” to strengthen Russia’s negotiating position. The source added that the conditions of the temporary ceasefire “must suit Russia” and that Russia’s agreement to a temporary ceasefire during which Ukraine continues to receive weapons and financing from its partners and allies is “stupid.” These leaks may be intentional and part of a Russian negotiating strategy that aims to push the United States to renegotiate its deal with Ukraine on the temporary ceasefire.

………..The Kremlin’s reported intention to make demands supporting its overall war objectives before agreeing to the temporary ceasefire violates the stated purpose of the ceasefire and the sequence of negotiations that US President Donald Trump has laid out. If the Kremlin holds the ceasefire hostage to demand preemptive concessions while continuing to pursue battlefield victories, that would strongly indicate that Russia lacks any urgency about ending the war and is uninterested in making any meaningful concessions.
………

Footnotes omitted.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2025 @ 11:25 am
It’s disappointing to see so many commentators [and Trump supporters] assign some sort of genius grand strategy to Trump’s negotiating tactics in foreign policy….There is no genius-level grand strategy. There is no eight dimensional chess.

I think he’s just playing it by ear.

Me, I’m wondering how he is going to get himself out of the dead end he’s reached, both with regard to Ukraine and to Gaza.

I would certainly like to see him pull it off, provided he doesn’t change the goalposts, but I can’t see any way forward except possibly military activity.
Sammy Finkelman (5ec475) — 3/13/2025 @ 11:33 am
Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh
BREAKING: Russia agrees with U.S./Ukraine ceasefire, but wants to speak to Trump first.

PUTIN: “We agree with the proposals for the ceasefire, but our position is based on the assumption that the ceasefire would lead to long-term peace, something that would remove the initial reasons for the crisis.”

More meetings expected on this situation today.

That means, at the very least, Putin is looking for assurances from Trump to not support Ukraine’s desire for NATO membership and to keep stolen lands.
whembly (b7cc46) — 3/13/2025 @ 12:00 pm
BREAKING: Trump had cut off all Russian oil sales to EU!

Treasury has ended the Biden exemption that allowed sanctioned Russian banks to process European payments for oil sales. Now no one in Europe can purchase Russian oil pic.twitter.com/zOCqzlc0Di

— Marc Thiessen 🇺🇸❤️🇺🇦🇹🇼🇮🇱 (@marcthiessen) March 13, 2025

Probably not a coincident.
whembly (b7cc46) — 3/13/2025 @ 12:04 pm
whembly (b7cc46) — 3/13/2025 @ 12:00 pm

at the very least, Putin is looking for assurances from Trump to not support Ukraine’s desire for NATO membership and to keep stolen lands.

They already have that.

But Putin wants, at least, to put a “roof” over Ukraine.

He may be trying to get as much as he can as a fiirst offer.

Trump is guessing what is Putin’s bottom line, and that he can’t continue on the war much longer, or doesnt want to. If not, he probably wants to squeeze Russia.
Sammy Finkelman (5ec475) — 3/13/2025 @ 12:08 pm
You know all the acrimonious negotiations we’re seeing with Zelenskyy?

The Trump administration was defining and using leverage.

This sanction exemption waiver is without doubt being held out as leverage to induce Moscow to agree to something.

Latest I’ve seen is Putin is willing to agree to 30-day ceasefire with pre-conditions.

That answer should be: No.
whembly (b7cc46) — 3/13/2025 @ 12:23 pm
We’re Not in the Best of Hands

That’s a headline that could’ve been written a year ago, but wasn’t.

Only folks who thought Biden/Harris was worth voting for, and excused it, could’ve given us what we have now. There were viable options in the GOP. They all failed your purity tests.
lloyd (0aa098) — 3/13/2025 @ 12:24 pm
None of the non-Trump republican candidates for president in 2024 could gain any traction.

We’re liable to see Andrew Cuomo elected mayor of New York City this year. Unless somebody somehow arranges for a decent candidate, like Jessica Tisch/
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 3/13/2025 @ 1:18 pm
Well, Trump is certainly not going to yield on tariffs, no matter what the experts say:

“I’m not going to bend at all,” Trump said when asked about his tariff plans during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

“We’ve been ripped off for years, and we’re not going to be ripped off anymore,” he said.

Trump specifically said he would not change his mind about enacting sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” on other countries that put up trade barriers to U.S. goods. The White House has said those tariffs are set to take effect April 2.

He then singled out Canada, criticizing the top trading partner at length and declaring, “We don’t need anything they have,” while repeating his calls to turn the U.S. northern neighbor into the “51st state.”

Trump added, “There’ll be a little disruption, but it won’t be very long.”
Dana (313922) — 3/13/2025 @ 1:34 pm
Anyone know what the current Tariff is on Aluminum? I have a bid review later today on a low margin FFP contract and material cost could be the deciding factor on if we pursue the work or not.

J/k Supply Chain has been trying to work that for two weeks. No idea how many hours they’ve put into that question but it’s been a lot they don’t need my help with it….but there’s a good chance we pass on the work due to the uncertainty / risk.
Time123 (bc0a3c) — 3/13/2025 @ 1:35 pm
Winning!

Stocks weathered another rough day Thursday with investors on edge over new tariff threats and mixed inflation news.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.4% and suffered its first correction since October 2023, a decline of more than 10% from its Feb. 19 record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined nearly 2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%.
………
Investors eyed an inflation gauge that showed wholesale prices held steady in February—although prices charged for eggs soared. Inflation concerns have intensified as Trump’s import levies risk fueling price pressures, while also weighing on growth.
………
Since its Feb. 19 peak, the S&P has lost an estimated $5.3 trillion, down from a high of about $52 trillion. The Nasdaq suffered a correction last week and is down more than 14% from its December high. The Dow has fallen more than 9% from its own record.
……….
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2025 @ 1:56 pm
Ya think?

……….
On Tuesday, March 11, Tesla’s policy team sent a letter Jamieson Greer, President Trump’s top US trade representative, to warn them the current trade war, started by Trump, could make Tesla’s target of retaliatory tariffs……
……..
……..(T)here’s one of Trump’s policies that Musk has stayed completely silent on: the sense less trade war that he started with US allies, including Canada and Mexico.

Tesla gets roughly 25% of its parts for vehicles built in the US from Mexico, in addition to an undisclosed amount of Canadian parts. Furthermore, Tesla builds a significant amount of its manufacturing machinery in Canada.

The automaker’s policy team was right to worry about retaliatory measures over the trade war.

Just today, B.C. Hydro, which offers rebates for installing EV charging stations, announced that it is excluding Tesla products from the program in response to U.S. tariffs.

BC Energy minister Adrian Dix commented on the move (via CBC):

“I thought they [Tesla products] shouldn’t be made available on a public subsidy program right now. I don’t think anyone in British Columbia needs to be told why, and I think most people would support their removal from that list,”

The province is also considering removing Tesla from the $4,000 rebate program at the purchase of electric vehicles.

That’s just the beginning. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who could be part of the new Canadian government if a coalition is formed after the upcoming elections, vowed to implement a 100% tariffs on Tesla vehicles coming from the US.
………
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2025 @ 2:12 pm
> We’re liable to see Andrew Cuomo elected mayor of New York City this year.

Blech. Could we not? Please?
aphrael (dbf41f) — 3/13/2025 @ 3:14 pm
> That’s just the beginning. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who could be part of the new Canadian government if a coalition is formed after the upcoming elections, vowed to implement a 100% tariffs on Tesla vehicles coming from the US.

It is impossible to overstate just how angry the average Canadian is right now.
aphrael (dbf41f) — 3/13/2025 @ 3:15 pm
(I’ve even lost a friend over this — a guy i’ve known for close to thirty years who has basically concluded that any American who claims to not support this is full of s*** because they didn’t *do anything to stop it from happening*, and who doesn’t really have a good answer when I ask him what he thinks I should have done. clearly the fact that this is happening is a sign that i didn’t care enough to stop it).
aphrael (dbf41f) — 3/13/2025 @ 3:44 pm
Anyone know what the current Tariff is on Aluminum?

It depends on what day it is, and how Trump feels, but here is the Federal Register announcement dated yesterday. This table also might help.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2025 @ 4:08 pm
“Blech. Could we not? Please?”

New York City was cursed by a witch to have the absolute worst mayors.
Davethulhu (14e9e4) — 3/13/2025 @ 4:15 pm
According to political Europe is seriously starting to look at increasing their military capabilities.
Time123 (3618b6) — 3/13/2025 @ 4:21 pm
Zelenskyy’s response to Putin’s “nyet” on the ceasefire is smart.

Right now, we have all heard from Russia Putin’s highly predictable and manipulative words in response to the idea of a ceasefire on the front lines—at this moment he is, in fact, preparing to reject it.

Of course, Putin is afraid to tell President Trump directly that he wants to continue this war and keep killing Ukrainians. That’s why, in Moscow, they are surrounding the ceasefire idea with such preconditions that it either fails or gets dragged out for as long as possible. Putin does this often—he doesn’t say ‘no’ outright, but he drags things out and makes reasonable solutions impossible. We see this as yet another round of Russian manipulation.

There was a U.S. proposal for an unconditional ceasefire—in the air, at sea, and on the front lines. We in Ukraine accepted this proposal. We have heard from the American side that there is readiness to organize monitoring and verification. And this is absolutely feasible—with American and European capabilities.

And during the ceasefire, to prepare answers to all questions about long-term security and a real, lasting peace, and to put a plan to end the war on the table. Ukraine is ready to work as quickly and constructively as possible. We have discussed this with U.S. representatives, and our European partners, as well as all our allies worldwide, are aware of it.

We are not setting conditions that complicate the process—Russia is. As we have always said, the only one stalling, the only one being unconstructive, is Russia. They need this war. Putin has stolen years of peace and continues this war day after day.

Now is the time to increase pressure on him. Sanctions must be applied—ones that will work. We will continue working with our American and European partners and with everyone in the world who wants peace—to force Russia to end this war.

“Putin is afraid to tell President Trump directly that he wants to continue this war and keep killing Ukrainians” is a good insult at Putin, that he’s “afraid”, and it informs Trump as to Putin’s real intentions and what he does in these negotiations.
Paul Montagu (354e09) — 3/13/2025 @ 4:52 pm
As I said, Trump will go too far. The pain will rise far enough that his threat to primary folks will be weak, if not courted. You can only burn so much political capital. Then you run out.

Or, as has been said: If something cannot go on, it won’t.

I cannot see this Presidency running the full term. A fresh Hell every week? People will get tired of it and then the knives come out.

I just don’t see any republican advocating any change in foreign policy WRT Ukraine. “Lets start WWIII” is not a wining strategy.
Joe (584b3d) — 3/13/2025 @ 5:02 pm
According to political Europe is seriously starting to look at increasing their military capabilities.

Time123 (3618b6) — 3/13/2025 @ 4:21 pm

They have been thinking about it for years now, maybe they will form a blue ribbon commission to discuss it. Don’t forget to hit your diversity targets.
IDIOTS
Joe (584b3d) — 3/13/2025 @ 5:08 pm
“Lets start WWIII” is not a wining strategy.

Strawman. There are strategies, but Trump picked Putin, the Greater Evil.
Paul Montagu (354e09) — 3/13/2025 @ 5:31 pm
https://x.com/RepRaulGrijalva/status/1900264784110768145

President Trump’s latest reckless decision to fire thousands of employees at the Department of Education jeopardizes critical student aid programs, weakens protections for students’ civil rights, and undermines essential support for students with disabilities. This move severely threatens every child’s access to a quality education nationwide.

Trump and Musk are prioritizing tax cuts for the wealthy over the future of our students. It’s selfish, and it’s illegal. This radical gutting of the Department will mean funding cuts for every student:

– 26 million kids across every school district—rural, suburban and urban—will lose access to critical funding to help them get succeed.

– 12 million students will lose access to career and technical education, including pathways to good-paying jobs through apprenticeship programs in trades and STEM careers.

– 10 million students from low-income families could lose access to higher education.

We know Democrats vote from the grave. Now we know they tweet from them too.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 3/13/2025 @ 5:38 pm
A portent of things to come?

For the first time since 2022, skywatchers across North and South America will have a chance to glimpse the moon turn a rusty red during a total lunar eclipse, in a phenomenon nicknamed the “blood moon.”

Late Thursday into the wee hours of Friday, Earth’s shadow will fall across the moon, blocking it from the sun’s light, as the three align. If the skies are clear, people in the Western Hemisphere—including the entire continental U.S. and most of Alaska and Hawaii—are in for a celestial treat.
……….
This week’s action starts at 11:57 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday and ends at 6 a.m. Friday.

For roughly the first 2½ hours, the moon will slowly enter the Earth’s shadow, resulting in a partial eclipse lasting from 1:09 a.m. to 2:26 a.m.

During the next hour or so after, the moon will be fully within the umbra—the inner, darkest part of Earth’s shadow—and totally eclipsed from 2:26 a.m. to 3:31 a.m., according to NASA. This is when the entire body looks red.

The spectacle then plays out in reverse.
………
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2025 @ 6:04 pm
“Lets start WWIII” is not a wining strategy.

Strawman. There are strategies, but Trump picked Putin, the Greater Evil.

Paul Montagu (354e09) — 3/13/2025 @ 5:31 pm

Hey Paul, It was not meant to be a strawman. But, I have not seen a strategy described that would get Republican or even general voting population to support. In general it seems that while Russia is paying a heavy cost to win, they are still wining.

What will it cost for Ukraine to “win”?
Joe (584b3d) — 3/13/2025 @ 6:57 pm
For *eight years* you have been predicting that at some point Trump will go too far and the Republicans will turn on him.

You’ve been wrong at *every point*.

Every Republican he appointed to high office quit in exasperation. He did lose in 2020. Some of that was Republicans who were disgusted. Seven of them were GOP Senators who voted to convict in 2021 — the most bipartisan impeachment vote in U.S. history. It just wasn’t enough. That’s 3 points where I’ve not been wrong.

Why would Republicans in the legislature turn against him? He’s giving them the destruction of state capacity they’ve always wanted, he’s screwing their enemies, and he’s backed by the richest man in the world who will bring the full force of his wealth against any one of them who turns on him.

When it gets to the point where Trump is more toxic with them than against them, that will change. It’s why Nixon quit — GOP Senators did not act in a fit of integrity, they acted out of righteous fear of the voters who disapproved of Nixon 75-25.

When Trump’s actions are shown to have harmed the people he wanted to help — do you really think we’re being partisan to say that these tariffs suck, or will cost jobs? Even lloyd won’t defend them. They will put millions out of work in short order and any gains that might happen will be years off. People don’t like being out of work.

As long as they keep forty one Senators after 2026, there’s *no way for this to be ended without their cooperation*, and they have every incentive possible to cooperate.

IF the are down to 41 after 2026, they will be in utter panic mode, and every senator up for re-election in 2028 will be thinking “I cannot survive this Trump idiot.”
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 7:23 pm
That means, at the very least, Putin is looking for assurances from Trump to not support Ukraine’s desire for NATO membership and to keep stolen lands.

He wants Ukraine to cede everyt5hing he’s taken and everything he wants. Then he wants them to disarm and have no EU support, Then he wants new elections where only his choices can run. IF he gets that he will consider a cease-fire.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 7:27 pm
None of the non-Trump republican candidates for president in 2024 could gain any traction.

Once NY State put up those tortured indictments, Trump was able to convince his base that all the charges everywhere were just as ridiculous. At which point the other candidates had to avoid using those charges against him or be portrayed as party-traitors. The nomination was over the moment James and Bragg had their news conferences.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 7:31 pm
Anyone know what the current Tariff is on Aluminum?

So, I’m selling stuff internationally on eBay. Are de minimus rules still valid? It matters. If the duties change after I ship but before they get to customs, will the item be returned? It was bad enough with the stuff that was in limbo during the Canada Post strike.

This is just so awful. Canada is leading the match 8-0, all goals by Trump.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 7:35 pm
vowed to implement a 100% tariffs on Tesla vehicles coming from the US.

Oh, great, political tariffs. What fresh Hell will be next?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 7:38 pm
New York City was cursed by a witch to have the absolute worst mayors.

She seems to have visited DC several times, too.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 7:39 pm
“Lets start WWIII” is not a wining strategy.

The only one threatening that is Putin, and he seems to be winning over you, Joe.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 7:42 pm
In 1974, after Nixon resigned, the Democrats picked up 4 senate seats and 45 House seats. And this was after the GOP threw Nixon under the bus. If they had stuck with him, it would have been much much worse, so they cut their losses as well as they could.

Question: Do you expect that Trump will be riding high in 2026?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 7:48 pm
Faultline 49

The harrowing account of reporter David Danson’s journey through US-occupied Canada in search of the principal provocateur in the Canadian-American War: terrorist mastermind Bruce Kalnychuk. As Danson draws closer to the truth about the 2001 World Trade Center Bombing in Edmonton, Alberta, and the criminal war it propagated, his journalistic distance to the story collapses, rendering him not only a brutalized participant, but an enemy of the state. David’s findings are as daunting as the personal price he’s paid to make them available to the North American public.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 7:56 pm
When it gets to the point where Trump is more toxic with them than against them, that will change. ………When Trump’s actions are shown to have harmed the people he wanted to help — do you really think we’re being partisan to say that these tariffs suck, or will cost jobs? Even lloyd won’t defend them. They will put millions out of work in short order and any gains that might happen will be years off. People don’t like being out of work.

Pure speculation. As I said before, if we had a parliamentary system I would agree with you, but we don’t. The President has a separate source for power in our system ( the voters) , so he isn’t beholden to having a majority of the legislature.

If Republicans get tired of “winning” they can always vote with Democrats to block Trump’s policies. But they haven’t because Trump has accomplished more of the Republican agenda since his inauguration than most did over their entire terms (whether it’s been done legally is another question.) There is absolutely no way that Republicans would impeach Trump over polling. You dance with the one who brung you.

IF the are down to 41 after 2026, they will be in utter panic mode, and every senator up for re-election in 2028 will be thinking “I cannot survive this Trump idiot.”

Given the announced Democratic retirements (both in the House and Senate), and with more to come, I predict Republicans will gain seats in 2026.
Rip Murdock (288dd2) — 3/13/2025 @ 8:05 pm
But, I have not seen a strategy described that would get Republican or even general voting population to support. In general it seems that while Russia is paying a heavy cost to win, they are still wining.

A different president would endorse a different strategy. Biden’s was basically half-ass and Trump’s is no-ass.

Ukraine has been short-changed on aid from Day One. Even so, Putin went from occupying 17.6% of Ukraine in Nov-2022 to 18.2% in Dec-2024 (link). To me, that’s not Putin “winning”, that’s him stuck in a quagmire of his own making, accelerating an already negative demographic spiral on his population and damaging his economy.

My strategy as an influential president would be to double down on military aid and demand that Europe match, because weapons beat his meat waves, and we should throw off any restrictions about striking Russian military targets in Russia, and a first priority would be knocking out Kerch bridge for good. Putin needs to pay, and it sends a direct message to Xi and ambitions for taking Taiwan.

Also, because Putin has a first-rate propaganda operation that masks his third-rate economy and military, we used our media to beat that sh-t back.
Paul Montagu (354e09) — 3/13/2025 @ 8:09 pm
When it gets to the point where Trump is more toxic with them than against them, that will change. ………

Apparently House Republicans haven’t reached that point:

……….
GOP leadership slipped language into a House rule on their stopgap funding bill that would prevent any member of Congress from bringing up a resolution terminating Trump’s declaration of a national emergency over fentanyl and undocumented immigrants entering the U.S. The president has used that emergency declaration to justify his tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China.

Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) and Democratic colleagues filed privileged resolutions last week seeking to terminate the national emergency.……..

Republicans’ rule, which the House is voting on this afternoon, would block a vote on Meeks’ resolution, or any similar effort, by declaring that the remainder of days in the first session of the 119th Congress do not qualify as calendar days, exempting the national emergency from a law that allows Congress to force a vote. GOP leaders argue it would protect Trump’s authority on both tariffs and border security.
………..
Conservatives privately say House GOP leaders wanted to block a vote on tariffs for the entire Congress……….

Democrats argue it would forfeit lawmakers’ ability to legislate tariffs, which are traditionally only authorized by Congress.
………….
Congress can approve a joint resolution to end a national emergency declared by the president. But that’s currently a tall order, since Republicans control both the House and the Senate and are loathe to vote against the president’s agenda. ……..
…………
Rip Murdock (ab824a) — 3/13/2025 @ 8:20 pm
House Republicans haven’t reached that point

Never said they had. Preference cascades happen quickly, as Nicolae Ceaușescu found out.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 8:57 pm
A different president would endorse a different strategy. Biden’s was basically half-ass and Trump’s is no-ass.

Haley had more balls than the two of them put together.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 8:59 pm
Pure speculation.

Of course it’s speculation you frigging nincompoop.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/13/2025 @ 8:59 pm
I said earlier that Trump has favored Putin and disfavored Zelenskyy at every turn, until this week where…

(1) Trump “unpaused” military in exchange for Zelenskyy agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire, and it was done in a day and

(2) Trump finally made a move that set Putin back, by letting an exemption on sanctions expire.

Washington — The Trump administration is placing more restrictions on Russia’s oil, gas and banking sectors by further restricting Russian access to U.S. payment systems, according to four people familiar with the plans.

The Treasury Department on Wednesday let lapse a 60-day exemption put in place by the Biden administration in January that allowed specific energy transactions involving sanctioned Russian banks to continue. By letting the waiver lapse, the banks may no longer access U.S. payment systems to conduct major energy transactions.

The Russian financial institutions that had been exempt from sanctions included Vnesheconombank, Bank Financial Corporation Otkritie, Sovcombank, Sberbank, VTB Bank, Alfa-Bank, Rosbank, Bank Zenit, Bank Saint-Petersburg and the Central Bank of Russia.

And then a hack like Waltz goes on Hannity and says he’ll force Ukraine into major territorial concessions before there’s even a negotiation, so he and his boss are still with the terrorists.
Paul Montagu (354e09) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:19 pm
>Do you expect that Trump will be riding high in 2026?

No, but I expect:

(a) the Republicans will maintain control of at least 41 votes in the Senate anyway, and they will continue to support him because they like some of the things he’s doing and know that he’s the only way the continue;

(b) any Republican opposed to him will lose the primary after Elon sinks a fortune into defeating them.

*Trump’s popularity, or lack thereof, no longer matters*.

He and Elon own the Republican party lock, stock, and barrel, and there is no way to remove them from power during his term.
aphrael (dbf41f) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:22 pm
> When Trump’s actions are shown to have harmed the people he wanted to help — do you really think we’re being partisan to say that these tariffs suck, or will cost jobs

No, you aren’t being partisan.

But when federal agencies is ordered to publish fictitious GDP, unemployment, and inflation numbers and the Trumpist staffers comply, and then all of the right wing media report those numbers as gospel truth, how do you think the fall in his popularity on which you hinge your argument will even happen? (Sure, you say, that won’t happen — but DOGE is *already* lying about what it’s doing, and why would you expect that to change?)

Trump and Musk do not care about the truth and never have, and the last several weeks have shown they are engaged in a concerted effort to purge the federal government of anyone who would oppose anything they do on the grounds that integrity requires it.
aphrael (dbf41f) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:26 pm
Trump is no more likely to be ejected with the cooperation of *his* party than Erdogan is likely to be ejected with the cooperation of *his* party.

Y’all created a monster and now we all have to live with it.
aphrael (dbf41f) — 3/13/2025 @ 9:28 pm
Schumer democrats will support CR. I know I said the opposite yesterday ;but that was before the donors told me vote for CR or we will cut off funding for DNC and you! The democrat party is broke from disgusted democrats not willing to fund corporate shills.
asset (0dce78) — 3/14/2025 @ 12:13 am
Trump and Musk are working hard to reduce our addiction to federal spending. It’s getting close to the time when the government runs out of other people’s money.

Good for them and good for us.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 3/14/2025 @ 4:13 am
(b) any Republican opposed to him will lose the primary after Elon sinks a fortune into defeating them.

Four current GOP Senators and 2 current representatives voted to impeach or convict. Pretty sure Murkowski says “do your worst” — she lost a primary then won the general election as a write-in.

We were talking just yesterday about integrity and standing by principles. What changed?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/14/2025 @ 7:45 am
Y’all created a monster and now we all have to live with it.

You confuse me with someone who voted for the man.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/14/2025 @ 7:46 am
how do you think the fall in his popularity on which you hinge your argument will even happen?

1) People who are unemployed don’t rely on the government numbers to know they are out of work.
2) A lot of people believe that Biden’s inflation numbers were bogus, particularly people on fixed incomes who know what the grocery store charges for everything they buy.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/14/2025 @ 7:49 am
He and Elon own the Republican party lock, stock, and barrel, and there is no way to remove them from power during his term.

Apres moi le deluge?

If the GOP is savaged in 2026, and loses both houses by a lot (e.g. 50 House seats, 8 Senate seats), the survivors will not be happy with Trump and may not think his backing helps them in the general election. It may help them in the primary, but being nominated to lose isn’t all that great.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/14/2025 @ 7:56 am
In 2006 & 2008, the GOP lost 13 total Senate seats and 52 total House seats due to an unpopular war (2006) and a catastrophic market crash (2008).

Trump is on schedule for worse.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/14/2025 @ 8:00 am
The Senate just quietly rejected (nomination was withdrawn by Trump Administration before a committee hearing based on some sort of whip count)

This was Trump’s nominee to head the CDC. This person was close to RFK Jr and was pushing the MMR vaccine causes autism theory long after it had been determined to be fraudulent.

Concern had been about how he might affect the vaccine recommendaaation schedule.
Sammy Finkelman (8ddc19) — 3/14/2025 @ 11:42 am
Wasn’t the reason Schumer reversed himself because a government shutdown would enhance Trump and Musk’s authority to fire people. Musk’s whole premise is that the people he is causing to lose their jobs aare non-essential – in the long run, how much more so in the short run?
Sammy Finkelman (8ddc19) — 3/14/2025 @ 11:48 am
If they had shut down the government, Trump would use that as a reason to “furlough” the majority of the federal workforce as he would have no way (or inclination) to pay them. Those that remained would receive pay vouchers, but no money or benefits as the government would have no authorization to pay them.

Then Trump would slow-walk any “negotiation” on a new budget deal, using the financial stress of the federal workforce as a prod to get Congress to agree on most of what he has done. He would also have a free hand on closing parts of the government completely as the whole “impoundment” argument would be moot. Even if both Houses accepted a deal, he could still veto it, relying on the extremes to prevent an override.

It would end up making the Democrats look even more feckless than they do now. Win-win in 2026.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 3/15/2025 @ 12:06 pm

3/13/2025

We’re Not In The Best of Hands

69 Responses to “We’re Not In The Best of Hands”

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