2/26/2025

13 Responses to “Full Text: “Minerals Deal””

1. Hello.

   Dana (07eae5) — 2/26/2025 @ 3:08 pm

   
   

2. Posting the text:
   BILATERAL AGREEMENT ESTABLISHING TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR A RECONSTRUCTION INVESTMENT FUND
   WHEREAS the United States of America has provided significant financial and material support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022;

   WHEREAS the American people desire to invest alongside Ukraine in a free, sovereign and secure Ukraine;

   WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine desire a lasting peace in Ukraine and a durable partnership between their two peoples and governments;

   WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine recognize the contribution that Ukraine has made to strengthening international peace and security by voluntarily abandoning the world’s third largest arsenal of nuclear weapons;

   WHEREAS the United States of America and Ukraine wish to ensure that those States and other persons that have acted adversely to Ukraine in the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine following a lasting peace;

   NOW, THEREFORE, the Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine (each, a “Participant”) hereby enter into this Bilateral Agreement Establishing Terms and Conditions for a Reconstruction Investment Fund to deepen the partnership between the United States of America and Ukraine, as set forth herein.

   The Governments of Ukraine and the United States of America, with the aim of achieving lasting peace in Ukraine, intend to establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund (Fund), partnering in the Fund through joint ownership, to be further defined in the Fund Agreement. Joint ownership will take into consideration the actual contributions of the Participants as defined in Sections 3 and 4. The Fund will be jointly managed by representatives of the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the United States of America. More detailed terms pertaining to the Fund’s governance and operation will be set forth in a subsequent agreement (the Fund Agreement) to be negotiated promptly after the conclusion of this Bilateral Agreement. The maximum percentage of ownership of the Fund’s equity and financial interests to be held by the Government of the United States of America and the decision-making authority of the representatives of the Government of the United States of America will be to the extent permissible under applicable United States laws.

   Neither Participant will sell, transfer or otherwise dispose of, directly or indirectly, any portion of its interest in the Fund without the prior written consent of the other Participant.
   The Fund will collect and reinvest revenues contributed to the Fund, minus expenses incurred by the Fund, and will earn income from the future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian Government), as defined in Section 3.

   The Government of Ukraine will contribute to the Fund 50 percent of all revenues earned from the future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian Government), defined as deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, and other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure) as agreed by both Participants, as may be further described in the Fund Agreement. For the avoidance of doubt, such future sources of revenues do not include the current sources of revenues which are already part of the general budget revenues of Ukraine. Timeline, scope and sustainability of contributions will be further defined in the Fund Agreement.

   The Fund, in its sole discretion, may credit or return to the Government of Ukraine actual expenses incurred by the newly developed projects from which the Fund receives revenues.

   Contributions made to the Fund will be reinvested at least annually in Ukraine to promote the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine, to be further defined in the Fund Agreement. The Fund Agreement will also provide for future distributions.
   Subject to applicable United States law, the Government of the United States of America will maintain a long-term financial commitment to the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine. Further contributions may be comprised of funds, financial instruments, and other tangible and intangible assets critical for the reconstruction of Ukraine.

   The Fund’s investment process will be designed so as to invest in projects in Ukraine and attract investments to increase the development, processing and monetization of all public and private Ukrainian assets including, but not limited to, deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, infrastructure, ports, and state-owned enterprises as may be further described in the Fund Agreement. The Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine intend that the investment process will lead to opportunities for distribution of additional funds and greater reinvestment, to ensure the sufficient supply of capital for the reconstruction of Ukraine as set out in the Fund Agreement.

   The Participants reserve the right to take such action as necessary to protect and maximize the value of their economic interests in the Fund.
   The Fund Agreement will include appropriate representations and warranties, including those necessary to ensure that any obligations the Government of Ukraine may have to third parties, or such obligations that it may undertake in the future, do not sell, convey, transfer pledge, or otherwise encumber the Government of Ukraine’s contributions to the Fund or the assets from which such contributions are derived, or the Fund’s disposition of funds.

   In drafting the Fund Agreement, the Participants will strive to avoid conflicts with Ukraine’s obligations under its accession to the European Union or its obligations under arrangements with international financial institutions and other official creditors.
   The Fund Agreement will provide, inter alia, an acknowledgment that both the Fund Agreement and the activities provided for therein are commercial in nature.

   The Fund Agreement shall be ratified by the Parliament of Ukraine according to the Law of Ukraine “On International Treaties of Ukraine”.
   The Fund Agreement will pay particular attention to the control mechanisms that make it impossible to weaken, violate or circumvent sanctions and other restrictive measures.

   The text of the Fund Agreement will be developed without delay by working groups chaired by authorized representatives of the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the United States of America. Contact persons responsible for preparing the Fund Agreement on the basis of this Bilateral Agreement are: from the Government of the United States of America: the Department of the Treasury; from the Government of Ukraine: Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economy.

   This Bilateral Agreement and the Fund Agreement will constitute integral elements of the architecture of bilateral and multilateral agreements, as well as concrete steps to establish lasting peace, and to strengthen economic security resilience and reflect the objectives set forth in the preamble to this Bilateral Agreement.

   The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace. Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments, as defined in the Fund Agreement.
   This Bilateral Agreement is binding and will be implemented by each Participant according to its domestic procedures. The Government of the United States of America and the Government of Ukraine commit to proceed forthwith to negotiate the Fund Agreement.

   Signed in English and Ukrainian languages, both texts are equally authentic.

   whembly (b7cc46) — 2/26/2025 @ 3:13 pm

   
   

3. Per #3

   The Government of Ukraine will contribute to the Fund 50 percent of all revenues earned from the future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian Government), defined as deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, and other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure) as agreed by both Participants, as may be further described in the Fund Agreement. For the avoidance of doubt, such future sources of revenues do not include the current sources of revenues which are already part of the general budget revenues of Ukraine. Timeline, scope and sustainability of contributions will be further defined in the Fund Agreement.

   I think this means any NEW lines of revenues from natural assets.

   I think that’s… fair? Not exactly a “raping” as some here has opined.

   whembly (b7cc46) — 2/26/2025 @ 3:17 pm

   
   

4. Per #10

   The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace. Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments, as defined in the Fund Agreement.

   That’s pretty emphatic, without explicitly antagonizing Russia.

   Here’s the deal.

   If the US would have a 50% interest in all future revenue of newly extracted resources in Ukraine, the US would have significant interest in protecting that.

   Isn’t that what ya’ll want?

   whembly (b7cc46) — 2/26/2025 @ 3:21 pm

   
   

5. Trump said today at his cabinet meeting that there would not be any security guarantees for Ukraine:

   When asked what security guarantees Trump would be willing to provide Ukraine, the president responded, “well, I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond, very much.”

   “We’re going to have Europe do that,” he said, arguing that “Europe is the next door neighbor.”

   Which Europe will not provide without a US backstop.

   Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 2/26/2025 @ 3:40 pm

   
   

6. If the US would have a 50% interest in all future revenue of newly extracted resources in Ukraine, the US would have significant interest in protecting that.

   Isn’t that what ya’ll want?

   whembly (b7cc46) — 2/26/2025 @ 3:21 pm

   The agreement says nothing about the US committing to protecting their investment with military force; and any way it will take decades for this agreement to generate any significant income to the United States. By that time Russia could Make Ukraine Russia Again.

   First, there is very limited data on whether Ukraine’s rare earth elements and other strategic materials are commercially viable to mine. According to the former director general of the Ukrainian Geological Survey, there is no modern assessment of rare earth reserves in Ukraine. Existing mapping was done 30–60 years ago by the Soviet Union and relies on old exploration methods. Considerations that impact the commercial feasibility of mining deposits include depth, ore grade, by-products, and location.

   Second, the war has wiped out essential infrastructure. Mining is among the most energy-intensive industries worldwide. It accounts for approximately 38 percent of global industrial energy use and around 15 percent of total electricity consumption globally. Between 2022 and 2023, nearly half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity was either occupied by Russian forces, destroyed, or damaged, while about half of the country’s large network substations sustained damage from missile and drone strikes. As a result, Ukraine has been left with only about one-third of its prewar power capacity. There will need to be a significant buildout of energy infrastructure for mineral exploration or production can commence.

   And finally, mining companies are hesitant to make long-term investments given the looming security risk in Ukraine. Mining is a long-term and capital-intensive investment. Globally, it takes an average of 18 years to develop a mine—and costs $500 million and $1 billion to build a mine and separation plant. A new mine can run for over 50 years. Confidence in the political and economic stability of a jurisdiction is critical given the size and longevity of the investment. While Trump, Putin, and Zelensky may reach a peace deal, the threat of further conflict and land expropriation will loom given the long-standing nature of the conflict………

   Who is going to pay for the destroyed infrastructure?

   Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 2/26/2025 @ 3:57 pm

   
   

7. The $100’s of billions of dollars question?

   On “what is Putin giving up, all we know from today is Trump said Putin is going to have to give some things up, repeated twice.
   What that means remains to be negotiated so we’ll see.

   steveg (8be186) — 2/26/2025 @ 4:24 pm

   
   

8. Professor Mylovanov has a good summary. He’s also concerned about the vague security assurances.

   Paul Montagu (eacde9) — 2/26/2025 @ 4:47 pm

   
   

9. Security assurances would be another deal entirely. I’d guess security assurances are dependent upon how the peace negotiations go, so any statement now would be prone to change

   steveg (8be186) — 2/26/2025 @ 5:05 pm

   
   

10. Security assurances would be another deal entirely. I’d guess security assurances are dependent upon how the peace negotiations go, so any statement now would be prone to change

    steveg (8be186) — 2/26/2025 @ 5:05 pm

    I think President Trump has been clear about any security “assurances” by the United States.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 2/26/2025 @ 5:24 pm

    
    

11. I have no further territorial demands. Well maybe poland. A. schickelgruper.

    asset (9e5858) — 2/26/2025 @ 7:26 pm

    
    

12. *whembly (b7cc46) — 2/26/2025 @ 3:21 pm

    If the US would have a 50% interest in all future revenue of newly extracted resources in Ukraine, the US would have significant interest in protecting that.

    Isn’t that what ya’ll want?

    Well, it denies those resources to Russia. It divides what now can’t be mined so Ukraine is giving way nothing.

    The Government of the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace.

    It looks to some other countries (France? Poland?) to protect it. Trump said that specifically. France is good through the spring of 2027. (Macron’s term of office)

    The whole things reads like a United Nations resolution, with all the whereas’s.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 2/27/2025 @ 4:41 pm

    
    

13. whembly,

    Have you ever tried to count the number of times you are either making excuses for something Trump did, or trying to explain it in a better light?

    Just wondering.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 2/27/2025 @ 8:00 pm