Temporary Ceasefire Plan
[guest post by Dana]
A temporary ceasefire is in play:
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a deal that will pause fighting in Gaza and lead to the phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners, Qatar’s prime minister has confirmed.
Implementation of the temporary ceasefire will start on Sunday, the prime minister said. Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages during the first phase of an emerging deal. Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners are set to be released from Israeli jails at the same time. The Israeli cabinet still needs to approve the agreement.
. . .
The release of the hostages would be the first phase of the deal being finalized. Negotiations to reach the second phase – which is intended to end the war – would begin on the 16th day of the implementation of the deal.
As the Washington Post reports, “Israeli officials believe that 98 hostages remain in Gaza and that about 60 are still alive.”
Reports note that families of some victims have say they will be filing lawsuits to prevent the ceasefire from going into effect. They believe that Palestinians who participated in the Oct. 7 attack will be among those who are released in the deal.
Additionally, humanitarian aid groups are asking all sides to respect the agreement, if and when it goes into effect. I guess that would include that ever-trustworthy group of rapscallions and jokers collectively known as Hamas. . .
—Dana
Hello.
Dana (88bdfc) — 1/15/2025 @ 1:40 pmShorter: Hamas cries “uncle”.
norcal (a72384) — 1/15/2025 @ 1:42 pmSince the deal requires Israel to release “hundreds” of Palestinian terrorists in exchange for a few hostages, this is a bad deal. The terrorists will be welcome as heroes, and will fuel the next round of fighting in a few years. They will replace the Israeli troops that will all eventually leave.
This deal is a Hamas victory-they get Israel out of Gaza and hundreds of replacement fighters, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. JUST SAY NO.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 1/15/2025 @ 2:05 pmI’m glad there will be a return of hostages, and it better be all of them, and I’ll consider it a breach of the ceasefire if Hamas kidnaps more. That’s really the only good thing about it.
The unacceptable part of the deal is that Hamas is allowed to exist.
Paul Montagu (e83a6d) — 1/15/2025 @ 3:38 pmTHE OLD WAY TO DEAL WITH HOSTAGE TAKERS
216 BC: After winning the battle of Cannae, the able Carthaginian general Hannibal brought 8,000 Roman prisoners, many noble, to the gates of Rome, demanding that Rome bargain for peace. Envoys from the captured prisoners were sent into Rome to plead the case for a prisoner swap and peace. Many found good “reasons” to stay in Rome if they could.
Hannibal was in a flawless posiiton. He had won 3 major battles, slain thousands of Romans and Rome could not even take to the field against him. Some Roman allies were desserting.
The Romans sent the Roman hostages back to Hannibal, some aginst their will. Refused to parley. Hanibal was stunned. He was the victor by all laws of warfare. He had never encountered people like the Romans. He finally executed most of the hostages, sold the rest into slavery and left. Rome banned public displays of sorrow.
207 BC: Hannibal’s brother is defeated by L Claudius Nero (the Good Nero) while trying to reinforce Hannibal: his severed head is tossed into Hannibal’s camp.
202 BC: Roman general Publius Scipio defeats Hannibal in battle, and later still, Rome goes back and wipes Carthage off the map. Legend says they poured salt on the ground to prevent any rebirth of the city
Harcourt Fenton Mudd (0c349e) — 1/15/2025 @ 4:03 pmnorcal (a72384) — 1/15/2025 @ 1:42 pm
No, it doesn’t. It is just avoiding Donald Trump’s red line of all hxxx breaking loose, It aims to continue,
The hostages not released may well feel abandoned if the war stops.
It’s virtually the same deal Hamas did not finalize eight months ago.’
The second and the third phase will never happen and if the ceasefire persists, Gaza will never be rebuilt, and all the hostages will not be released.
If the Iranian regime falls, maybe something will happen
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 1/15/2025 @ 4:08 pm“Israeli officials believe that 98 hostages remain in Gaza and that about 60 are still alive.”
Hmmm. How many dead terrorists does Israel have to return?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/15/2025 @ 4:44 pmhttps://x.com/IsraeliPM/status/1879650206628839837?
That makes sense. Just like Reagan’s victory over Carter.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 1/15/2025 @ 6:13 pmI wonder what effect Trump’s statement about “Free these hostages or else” had. Probably nothing. Just happened.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/15/2025 @ 9:28 pmHamas is just Lucy with the football.
Paul Montagu (e83a6d) — 1/16/2025 @ 12:50 amThe problem is that Netanyahu didn’t understand that if Hamas was prepared to do anything it was probably prepared to do almost everything, including turning over rule of Gaza to some other Arab entity and abiding by the Geneva convention.
But he wound up taking the first half decent deal.
ALready he is accusing Hamas of violating the terms of the agreement, Hamas and Qatar said there was a deal before it was final and Hamas accuses Israel of changing the terms.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 1/16/2025 @ 7:40 amThe only entity that should take over Gaza is the IDF.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 1/16/2025 @ 9:06 amSammy, I love and respect you as smart and well informed, but do you really think there’s much Netanyahu doesn’t understand about Hammas compared to ppl like you and I?
Time123 (bf9676) — 1/16/2025 @ 9:40 amTime123 (bf9676) — 1/16/2025 @ 9:40 am
It depends what.
I don’t think he understands their bargaining strategy – and I don’t he even thinks he understands it. He’s constantly being surprised. I think this bargaining strategy – slowly, slowly, make concessions and find the minimally acceptable deal to the opposite negotiator – they’ll be so happy to get it they won’t look for more – has been used by others but it’s hard to realize that that is what is going on. Russia uses this too. North Vietnam did too in late 1972. Nixon and Kissinger could have gotten much more out of Hanoi once they perceived over there a need to end the war after Nixon authorized the “carpet bombing” of Hanoi and Haiphong.
The real most important factor is the need or lack of need to make a deal, but they get people to thinking the thing that holds it up is the relative acceptability to them of the terms of the deal. This can happen when the decision making process of the bad guys is opaque and nothing is more opaque than Hamas. The decision making may be actually being made in Teheran, or by foreign consultants there.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 1/16/2025 @ 11:42 amTo avoid being manipulated it would be necessary to call Hamas;s bluff.
The also called Trump’s bluff, figuring he wouldn’t do anything if no more than 3 hostages were released before the inauguration – and not even any Americans – so long as more was scheduled and they are to be dribbled out over a period of 6 weeks till late February. By that time they figure Trump will probably have other things on his mind,things will look different, and if not, they’ll know.
It could be there’s an agreement between Netanyahu and Trump to damage or destroy Iran’s nuclear program or Netanyahu figures Iran will do something provocative by that time,. Some people are writing that might be going on.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 1/16/2025 @ 11:50 amWhat delayed agreement for one more day was Hamas trying to remove the Israeli veto on which prisoners to release. Hamas claimed this veto was an additional provision to the agreement added by Israel after negotiations were complete.
We don’t know how much of this is due to Qatar finagling, Qatar is probably telling Israel various lies about the negotiating process.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 1/16/2025 @ 11:57 amHmmm…
For Bibi to save his career, he’ll be looking for one excuse or another to bail on the Hamas deal, which will have its own degree of political blowback.
Paul Montagu (e83a6d) — 1/16/2025 @ 12:04 pmHamas is just Lucy with a hostage’s head.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/16/2025 @ 12:37 pmAny deal that release hundreds of terrorists is not a good deal by any means; Israel hasn’t learned its historic lesson. Why would anyone want to claim credit for that? Just say no.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 1/16/2025 @ 1:13 pmhttps://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-837944
The deal has been signed.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 1/16/2025 @ 7:17 pmI am inclined to favorably credit Trump for this. He told the Israelis a year ago to get the Gaza invasion over quickly. Not to drag it out. And now they have to listen to him.
nk (fdbbb3) — 1/16/2025 @ 7:28 pmIsrael will rue this day. Those hundreds of terrorists they must release under the deal will turn around and continue their war against Western civilization. This agreement is a Hamas victory, as Hamas has survived and has gained fighters. They have shown taking, torturing, and executing hostages pays off.
Rip Murdock (1b7d34) — 1/16/2025 @ 7:38 pmMy prediction is that it won’t last more than a couple of months, if that.
Rip Murdock (1b7d34) — 1/16/2025 @ 7:46 pmIsrael got rolled, and the US helped. Again.
Rip Murdock (1b7d34) — 1/16/2025 @ 8:07 pmThe Israeli security cabinet approved the deal, so it looks like it’s really going forward.
Paul Montagu (a96200) — 1/17/2025 @ 6:59 amThere should be an over-under as to when Hamas welshes on the deal and when they take their next hostage.
I think there’s a large enough fatigue in Israel to end the war to get their loved ones back.
I’m sure, that if Hamas commits another war atrocity, the Trump administration would allow Israel to unleash hell that the Biden’s never supported.
whembly (477db6) — 1/17/2025 @ 8:11 amThe opposition said it would support the government to get the deal. Smotrich said that if he leaves, he will rejoin the government as soon as the war starts up again,,butb he won’t quit.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 1/17/2025 @ 10:21 amI hope that all those Israel releases have implanted trackers that they can use for targeting.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/17/2025 @ 10:59 amThe first thing to understand about the deal is that it is indeed, a temporary ceasefire like Dana said. It has three parts. The first part is real. The second part (to be negotiated while the first part is in effect) is based on wishful thinking at best. The third part is totally imaginary.
https://nypost.com/2025/01/15/world-news/israel-hamas-cease-fire-timeline-revealed-for-all-3-phases
The whole thing was probably written by Qatar, in consultation with Hamas and Iran. It’s not Biden’s plan.
The whole thing
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 1/17/2025 @ 11:25 amRip Murdock (1b7d34) — 1/16/2025 @ 7:38 pm
The ones released into Gaza will cause little extra harm (but that also means all this last minute bombing aimed at Hamas is almost worthless.)
It’s the ones released into the West Bank who will cause a problem – for Israel and also for any other Arab political entity. But Netanyahu did secure some veto power as to whom to release
They are certainly claiming it as a victory, and so does the Iranian government.
It’s better than them not taking prisoners but just killing everybody they can/ On October 7, no group of the 22 groups knew about any of the others, and Hamas did not expect them all to not get killed, and some had a bit of human feeling, so they took more prisoners than Hamas leaders expected. (some of the excess prisoners were killed right away. In one case at least the captors abandoned their prisoners – who were all or mostly women – probably after being told to kill them. In another case they were lied to that they weren’t Israeli, and the local commander decided not to take them prisoner or kill them, probably because of some remnant of human feeling and lack of specific orders what to do in such a situation)
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 1/17/2025 @ 11:38 amThese are the terms of the deal, according to Thursday’s New York Post:
Part 1: Three hostages to be released on Sunday. our more six days later. Then week by week, till late February (42 days into the deal) enough to add up to 33. These are all to be considered civilians or female soldiers. Hamas has supplied a list. No prisoners will be released in exchange for any hostage who is delivered dead. Thirty Palestinians to be released from Israeli jails (not any taken prisoner now I think) for each civilian and 50 for each female soldier and they are to be women or children (meaning probably 18 or under but they released during the Black Friday agreement in 2023) or elderly. At least 30 of the 50 prisoners released in exchange for female soldiers to be serving life sentences. Or is that 30 in total?
Israeli forces will pull back from (formerly) populated areas in northern Gaza into a buffer zone near the border.
About 600 trucks to be allowed to enter Gaza daily including 50 carrying fuel/
On the 16th day negotiations as to Phase 2 are to start.
Part 2: An agreement is supposed to be reached by day 42. If no agreement is reached, Israel says the cease-fire agreement expires, and Hamas says it continues in effect. Israel did not agree to this but Hamas said it was willing to accept assurances from Egypt, Qatar and the United States, which I think the United States has not given.
If a further agreement is reached, all men from Israel are to be released, and Israel is to completely withdraw from Gaza.
Israel has said it won’t withdraw from Gaza until Hamas’ political and military power is gone.
Hamas has a fallback negotiating position: Get the situation that Hezbollah had in Lebanon till September. Not officially in charge of the government but with veto power over the government and free to maintain military
Part 3: Bodies to be returned in exchange for people from Gaza detained during the war. A 3 to 5 year period of rebuilding of Gaza to start under international auspices.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 1/17/2025 @ 12:09 pmSo what we have now is a situation in which all the hostages will NOT be released, Gaza will not be rebuilt, and no one will dare to talk of any further peace agreements. Until something changes.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 1/17/2025 @ 12:12 pmBecause the final vote in Israel will not take place till Saturday night, the first three hostages will be released on Monday. (still before Trump is sworn in)
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 1/17/2025 @ 12:17 pmPaul Montagu (a96200) — 1/17/2025 @ 6:59 am
March 3 and next hostage very long.Only 4 Israelis were captured in Gaza after October 7 – or maybe two since two of them died at the time,
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 1/17/2025 @ 12:45 pmSpeculative at best.
Rip Murdock (ea3b0a) — 1/17/2025 @ 12:51 pmSort of like Republicans depending on Democrat votes to pass bad CRs, budget bills, etc. No thanks.
Rip Murdock (ea3b0a) — 1/17/2025 @ 12:55 pmBill Gates says he was “impressed” by a sit-down with Donald Trump
Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/17/2025 @ 12:56 pmooops, wrong thread
Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/17/2025 @ 12:56 pmIsrael should just issue them cellphones or pagers.
Rip Murdock (ea3b0a) — 1/17/2025 @ 12:57 pm31. Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 1/17/2025 @ 12:09 pm
The release of people detained from Gaza during the war applies to women and children (children means under 18 or maybe includes 18)
I read that the start of the ceasefire might be delayed until Monday because the Israeli cabinet wouldn’t meet until Saturday night but this was wrong. It met on Shabbos. But there is a hitch. I thought Hamas had told Israel the names of the 33 hostages to be released in the first 42 days (although not the order in which they would be released) but Israel did not have a list and Netanyahu threatened to stop the deal till that happened. There is a total of 98 (living or dead – this has to be Israel’s figure) to be released in exchange for 1700 Palestinians.
The first release (of Palestinians) is/was supposed to take place at 8:30 am local time – 1:30 am I think EST and 10:30 pm Saturday night PST) with the 3 hostages to be released in the afternoon.
This is being treated too much like a final deal, and in Israel, 6 hospitals were alerted in case many hostages were released, which they know is not expected, and hospitals have been alerted several times in the past but not constantly. There is too much unfounded false optimism being promoted by some people in Israel.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 1/19/2025 @ 2:50 amThe first three hostages (all female) were released to the Red Cross at about 10:25 am Eastern time (5:25 in Israel) The ceasefire was already in effect. They were first. They were transferred to Israel at a border crossing and underwent two triage examinations, one very quick. They are being siloed.
President Biden addressed the nation at about 10:35. He names as a goal the removal of Hamas from power, something thaat Hamas shows no signs of agreeing to and nobody else talks about besides (quietly) the Israeli government.
Maybe not all of the 33 are women and chikdren or elderly. A 36 year old man, named Sergei whose father is a guest at the inauguration I think, is one of the 33. They did also say sick people (or people needing medical care)
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 1/19/2025 @ 11:21 amIsrael should call snap elections for the Gazan government, after they have arranged a slate of anti-Hamas candidates.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/19/2025 @ 12:43 pmThere’s no such thing as “anti-Hamas” political candidates, if they know what good for them. And even if there were, no one would run a campaign on the back of an Israeli tank (metaphorically speaking.) Any candidate backed by Israel would be lucky to just lose their campaign.
Rip Murdock (25e885) — 1/19/2025 @ 12:52 pmIsrael should reoccupy Gaza and turn into multiple Mediterranean beach resorts.
Rip Murdock (25e885) — 1/19/2025 @ 12:55 pmhttps://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office/govil-landing-page
Share your genius.
BuDuh (e83217) — 1/19/2025 @ 3:50 pmThe list of 33 was made public yesterday. It does include some men and I got a name wrong – it’s not sergei but it sounded like that.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 1/20/2025 @ 8:12 am