Patterico's Pontifications

1/9/2025

Los Angeles County Continues To Burn

Filed under: General — Dana @ 10:32 am



[guest post by Dana]

As I’m sure you know, the fires in Southern California have wrought destruction throughout Los Angeles county:

Five people have died, more than 2,000 structures have burned and at least 130,000 residents are under evacuation orders because of the wildfires burning across Los Angeles County. ‘We are absolutely not out of danger yet,’ Los Angeles Fire Department Chief Kristin Crowley said.

While the intense winds have slowed down, meteorologists say they expect to see them increase today. Unfortunately, that means that burning embers can continue to be blown long distances, igniting new fires.

“We’ll get a little bump up in winds as we get another little push of offshore flow. . .Nothing like we saw yesterday with the gusts of 80 to 100 miles per hour winds, but certainly enough to present some issues for the fires. … It’s kind of like a day on, day off sort of thing. At least until the middle of next week we’re going to be in that pattern.”

The worst part: there is no rain expected in the next few days.

If you want to help victims of the fire, there is a good resource list here.

It’s a disaster of mind-boggling proportions. I have loved ones on the periphery of one fire, so it’s pretty concerning to me. I know many readers are from the Southern California area, so I hope and pray that you are safe and not directly impacted. Mostly, thoughts and prayers -and hope- to those whose lives have been literally turned upside down by this devastation.

FYI: The Los Angeles Times has lifted the paywall on their coverage of the fires.

-—Dana

57 Responses to “Los Angeles County Continues To Burn”

  1. If you live in the region, please let us know how you are doing.

    Dana (74ce5c)

  2. I moved out a few years back, but I still have lots of friends in the area. My former business partner has had to evacuate his home in Santa Monica. It’s in the flats, but near the hills. A former employee has lost his Palisades house. His family and cats are safe in a hotel, but it’s devastating.

    From what I hear, the Palisades is mostly gone. Thousands of hillside homes. The media are trying to make the case that these houses were surrounded by kindling, but that’s just not the case. Lawns, landscaping, very little brush. But once the fire took hold in a house, the winds took it everywhere.

    My extended family on my father’s side lives all over, but is centered near the Eaton fire. Other family members live in parts of Orange County that are in the same risk environment.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  3. Here’s an area where many homes burned.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  4. My sister lives off of Lincoln and they decamped yesterday to Vegas. She said it was pretty scary, by far the closest a fire has gotten.

    Other than that time where my niece was trying out ciggy’s behind the garage.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a)

  5. From what I’m seeing, it will be years before L.A. recovers from this. Housing was short before this. Rebuilding will happen, but you can’t rebuild 5,000 homes overnight, or even at the same time. There are only so many contractors, skilled workers and materials. And of course, the scam artists will arrive. Hotels will be full for months, apartment and house rentals will be non-existent and the rents will all go up. A lot of elderly or infirm folks will need serious assistance.

    I wonder if the city will be able to focus, or whether their progressive agendas will continue to consume resources.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  6. Pacific Palisades is in unincorporated LA County, not the city of Los Angeles. Malibu is an independent city in the County.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  7. PP has also some of most expensive homes in LA County, which means their owners are extremely wealthy. I’m sure they will get by, though they may have to sell one of their other properties.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  8. From the Open Thread, but more relevant here:

    If this kind of event can now be expected every few years, for whatever reason, the region becomes uninhabitable.
    …………
    Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/9/2025 @ 10:21 am

    Don’t be so melodramatic. While multiple fires of this intensity all at once is unusual, large fires in LA County (particularly during the “rainy” season with no rain), are not.

    As long as I’ve lived here (most of my life), the San Gabriel and Santa Monica Mountains have burned. I can recall at least five large fires in the San Gabriels (above the San Gabriel and the San Fernando Valleys) during the 60s and 70s.

    And periodically Malibu, Bel Air, and Topanga Canyon have burned. In November 1961 a fire in Bel Air destroyed nearly 500 homes, fueled Santa Ana winds. In 1978 a fire in Mandeville Canyon destroyed 200 homes.

    Earthquakes and fires, part of life in Southern California.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50) — 1/9/2025 @ 11:41 am

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  9. While President Trump may not want to provide disaster aid to help with recovery (given his criticism of Governor Newsom), I don’t think a narrow majority Republican House would do the same (but I could be wrong.)

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  10. Rip, I lived in L.A. and Orange counties for 65 years; you don’t have to explain this to me. This is unusual in the extreme. The entire Pacific Palisades is gone. So is much of Altadena and parts of nearby towns. Yes, there are always wildfires, but those that destroy even 100 homes are rare. The count here will be well over 5,000.

    If this is the new normal, no hillside area will be safe enough to build — insurance will be unavailable. Luckily it isn’t the new normal, and there are things that could have been done that would have mitigated this (e.g. keeping local reservoirs full). The LADWP has a lot to answer for. Building codes will change to require tile roofing and external water systems.

    And we will have to find out why these clustered fires happened, mostly in affluent areas, while similarly situated areas had no problem. I will be shocked if it wasn’t arson.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  11. And periodically Malibu, Bel Air, and Topanga Canyon have burned. In November 1961 a fire in Bel Air destroyed nearly 500 homes

    That fire also burned in the Eaton fire area; I was evacuated from a house near Eaton canyon in 1961. That house may have burned this time. Again, your mansplaining is tiresome.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  12. 7, RIP: many of the homeowners there date back some time, and owned a modest place.

    On what was called the “Alphabet Streets (because names of the streets were alpha’d, e.g., Apple, Breaker, Cruciferous), there were just OK houses and some done up better than others, but for years it was a place middle class couples could buy and be “in the Palisades.”

    Decent public schools were there, and casusal dining places that were very kid friendly. Kids would stroll there and there were no crazy homeless, very few criminals and lots of families.

    The middle class homeowners may have their house as their one large investment, and now they have a hotel room and an insurance claim, but their pre-digital photos, clothes, books, etc are gone.

    Its a shame.

    Harcourt Fenton Mudd (0c349e)

  13. 10: Kevin: “they say” it originated from a “spark” in a “garden” on Pieredra Morada, which sounds like the Highlands.

    Harcourt Fenton Mudd (0c349e)

  14. How bad was this fire? In terms of damage (but not lives, thankfully), it rivals the mythical Big One. No SoCal earthquake in recorded history has caused anything like this much damage. Unlike earthquakes though, people have warning with wildfires.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  15. Meanwhile in alabama fast food resturants ask state to slow down paroles as they use prisoners for cheap labor. (DU)

    asset (ce3899)

  16. “spark” in a “garden”

    The cause is still under investigation.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  17. Fox news: State farm stopped fire insurance in area when they were not allowed to triple insurance rates by state. Maybe others so not alabama.

    asset (ce3899)

  18. It should be note that, in almost every case, the value of these houses was mostly in the land, not the structure. A $2 million house might be on $1.5 million in land. So, even if they get paid the replacement cost to rebuild, any other option will be, um, foreclosed and the land value will have decreased.

    I expect some fairly shady companies offering homeowners “fire sale” prices on their land.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  19. @12: Most people had adequate warning to evacuate, so clothes, pets, photos, documents, etc could be collected and taken with. Looting of the surviving structures is going to be a problem, since cops can no longer shoot looters on sight.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  20. California Was Already in Home-Insurance Crisis Before Los Angeles Infernos

    Even before the fires were sparked, millions of homeowners in the Golden State, especially those in the path of the L.A. infernos, faced double-digit insurance-rate increases, nonrenewals or a dearth of any available private coverage.

    Leading insurers, including State Farm and Allstate, have stopped selling new home-insurance policies in the state, saying rate increases approved by regulators were insufficient to cover their losses, including from the devastating wildfires of 2017 and 2018.

    Insurers have dropped existing customers in areas seen as high risk for wildfires. State Farm last year announced plans to nonrenew 30,000 property policies in California, including 69% of those in Pacific Palisades.

    California had the nation’s fourth-highest insurance-nonrenewal rate in 2023, according to a report last month by the U.S. Senate Budget Committee. A spokesman for State Farm declined to comment on the nonrenewals. The insurer last year said its move was designed to “address areas where the company has an overconcentration of risk.”

    One area of particular concern for insurers, regulators and consumers alike: the impact of the wildfires on the state’s already-stretched Fair Plan, an insurer of last resort for homeowners rejected by private insurers.

    The squeeze on home-insurance availability in the state has pushed tens of thousands more people into the plan, which offers bare bones and typically expensive fire coverage….

    The Fair Plan has grown rapidly in recent years in some of the areas most affected by the latest fires. In Pacific Palisades, for example, its number of residential policies increased 85% to 1,430 in the 12 months through September, up from 773 a year earlier, according to the plan’s website. That is more than double the 40% increase for the state as a whole, from fewer than 321,000 policies in September 2023 to over 451,000 a year later.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  21. I don’t see how any believes that Rip has any valuable contribution to any conversation. It is nitpicking garbage all the time.

    That said, at the moment all I can do is offer prayers for those who have been affected. This is massive devastation.

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  22. Aerial view of devastation in Pacific Palisades.

    Total devastation.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  23. Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/9/2025 @ 1:46 pm

    No different than the insurance crisis in Florida. Two peas in a pod.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  24. Rip Murdock (9bda50) — 1/9/2025 @ 12:03 pm

    “Pacific Palisades is in unincorporated LA County, not the city of Los Angeles.”

    This is not correct. Pacific Palisades is within the City of Los Angeles. It is part of Council District 11 represented by Councilmember Traci Park.

    https://cd11.lacity.gov/neighborhoods/pacific-palisades

    JoeH (390085)

  25. How bad was this fire? In terms of damage (but not lives, thankfully), it rivals the mythical Big One. No SoCal earthquake in recorded history has caused anything like this much damage. Unlike earthquakes though, people have warning with wildfires.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/9/2025 @ 1:21 pm

    Don’t be so melodramatic. As I said here to the first time you made this assertion, the only thing lost are homes and businesses (and sadly, several lives). No hospitals collapsed, no freeways are down, and no dams are threatening to collapse.

    The Northridge earthquake cost somewhere around $35B in 1994 dollars ($74B in 2024 dollars), 87,000 structures were destroyed, and at least 57 persons died. In the 1971 Sylmar earthquake two hospitals collapsed and 80,000 people had to be evacuated when the Van Norman Dam threatened to collapse. Eighty-five persons died in the disaster.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  26. The Big One will destroy water and natural gas pipelines as well as pumping stations, sewage systems, and possibly damaging the Los Angeles Aqueduct and local reservoirs, none of which has happened during this disaster.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  27. Rip, please stop with the mansplaining. Only about 5 million people experienced those quakes, so we really don’t need your pontification.

    I was around for the ’71 quake and know all about it. Could not stand up 80 miles from the epicenter (I was on the Newport end of a fault). The fact is that it did not destroy square miles of houses and businesses like this fire did. The cost of these fires will be larger than all the earthquakes that have hit L.A. in modern times.

    I suspect that in the next quake, that I5-CA14 interchange will collapse again, as it has twice before. Government work.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  28. They are now saying 5300 structures, mostly homes, were destroyed in the Palisades.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  29. The LA Times report, frequently updated. No paywall.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  30. Rip, please stop with the mansplaining. Only about 5 million people experienced those quakes, so we really don’t need your pontification.

    I’m pretty sure not all of the posters here have your in-depth knowledge or experience.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  31. The cost of these fires will be larger than all the earthquakes that have hit L.A. in modern times.

    There’s that melodrama again.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  32. The cost of these fires will be larger than all the earthquakes that have hit L.A. in modern times.

    In inflation adjusted dollars, we’ll see.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  33. There haven’t been any big earthquakes in the Los Angeles area since 1857 – that’s what they worry about.

    https://www.laalmanac.com/disaster/di02.php

    Within the next 30 years (from 2014), the probability of a major earthquake in the Los Angeles region is:

    Magnitude 6.7: 93% (Equivalent to 1994 Northridge Earthquake)

    Magnitude 7.0: 75% (Very serious damage throughout large area; 2.8 times the destructive energy release of magnitude 6.7)

    Magnitude 7.5: 36% (Considerable damage to most buildings; 15.8 times the destructive energy release of magnitude 6.7)

    Magnitude 8.0: 7% (Tremendous destruction & loss of life everywhere; 89.1 times the destructive energy release of magnitude 6.7)

    Source: U.S. Geological Survey

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  34. I don’t see how any believes that Rip has any valuable contribution to any conversation. It is nitpicking garbage all the time.

    That said, at the moment all I can do is offer prayers for those who have been affected. This is massive devastation.

    BuDuh (4214e4) — 1/9/2025 @ 1:54 pm

    It’s a troll. It’s a troll that literally has no life but trolling. I wish it were AI just because the volume of nonsense is so sad to see – much like a couple of the really bad homeless I used to deal with every day.

    I share your prayers. Doesn’t really matter which disaster is worse, but to the folks impacted by the fires, it’s obviously terrible and seems extreme no matter if the troll calls that melodrama because it needs the attention. I also offer my prayers for the really bad trolls online. I pray they just go cold turkey on the internet entirely. I don’t think I was ever a big troll, but I know I used to really get invested in these debates over politics and other issues. One day I realized I’d rather go hiking. That was a great day. There’s no shame in realizing you’ve been on the wrong track.

    Dustin (4b0241)

  35. Five people have died,

    This figure remains frozen and may a total from only the Eden fire, although 1 has ben reported for Pacific Palisades. The death toll is frozen like it was in Hawaii.

    Many people evacuated by car and then got stuck in a traffic jam and took their keys with them.

    In some places some homes remained intact.
    I read sometime ago that there is something you can spray on a house to prevent it from burning. They used it in Arizona. I think not fighting fires only causes the area of damage to spread. They may not have that policy here.

    They have started dumping water from the air as the winds have temporarily diminished.

    With all the dangers of fires in California I think people should can and upload their pictures to several places.

    A vital necessity that people don’t need to take with them: water.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  36. I read about this system some time ago:
    https://www.newser.com/story/362249/hundreds-of-inmates-are-fighting-la-fires.html

    Hundreds of Inmates Are Fighting LA Fires

    They’re paid an extra $1 per hour during emergency deployments

    …Hundreds of inmates are among the firefighters battling the Los Angeles wildfires. The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation says 395 inmate firefighters have been deployed across 29 crews fighting the multiple out-of-control fires, the Guardian reports. They are among what Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office says is more than 4,700 Cal Fire personnel deployed to protect California communities. Business Insider reports that members of inmate fire crews are normally paid between $5.80 and $10.24 a day, depending on skill level. With an extra $1 per hour paid during active emergencies, the highest-skilled inmate firefighters can make up to $34 a day during 24-hour emergency shifts.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  37. Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/9/2025 @ 1:16 pm

    I will be shocked if it wasn’t arson.

    Where did it start?

    I heard someone calling to a radio station say such fires are started by homeless people or by power lines which aren’t buried.

    Some people known to the radio broadcasters in New York are affected

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  38. Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 1/9/2025 @ 4:38 pm

    It will rise when people start reporting their relative missing and bodies are found in the rubble.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  39. There haven’t been any big earthquakes in the Los Angeles area since 1857 – that’s what they worry about.

    Define big. All of the earthquakes I’ve lived through have been big enough.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  40. Now they are saying 9,000 structures destroyed in the two main fires.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  41. Define big.

    The 1971 Sylmar quake and the 1994 Northridge quake had widespread damage and lives lost. There was a destructive quake in Long Beach in 1933, but that has passed out of living memory. It’s not just the magnitude of the quake, but the location. The Northridge quake had negative gravity events over 30 miles away from the epicenter.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  42. Shorter: if a native Californian calls it a big quake, it’s a big quake.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  43. Breaking on the Open Thread:

    The Supreme Court denied Trump’s attempt to block his sentencing tomorrow; and the Eleventh Circuit Court of Appeals denied his appeal to block the release of the Special Counsel’s report.

    Rip Murdock (9bda50)

  44. Only the best people

    Los Angeles’ water boss who makes $750,000 a year couldn’t quite explain why fire hydrants have run dry during the disastrous wildfires in a bumbling video.

    ‘Those tanks help with the pressure on the fire hydrants in the hills of Palisades, and because we were pushing so much water in our trunk line, and so much water was being used before it can get to the tanks – we were not able to fill the tanks fast enough,’ she explained.

    ‘So the consumption of water was faster than we can provide water in our trunk line,’ she continued, adding that there is water in the truck line, but it ‘cannot get up the hill because we cannot fill the tanks fast enough.’

    Meanwhile….

    Joe Biden claimed that Los Angeles fire hydrants hadn’t run dry because of a water shortage, but due to power being cut to water pumps because of the killer wildfires. Amid furore from critics saying that water was unavailable to fire crews, Biden explained that the problems were self-inflicted to avoid further fanning the flames.

    ‘What I know from talking to the governor, there are concerns out there that there’s also been a water shortage,’ he said in a press briefing Thursday.

    ‘The fact is the utilities, understandably, shut off power because they are worried the lines that carried energy were going to be blown down and spark additional fires.

    ‘When it did that, it cut off the ability to generate pumping the water, that’s what caused the lack of water in these hydrants.’

    In an attempt to rectify the situation, Biden said Cal Fire and other state officials are bringing in generators.

    Sounds like we’ve got the right folks in charge.

    lloyd (019a97)

  45. Bubble media serves up comic relief.

    ABC’s ‘narcissistic’ David Muir roasted for sprucing up ‘svelte’ looks while reporting on deadly LA fires

    The same network that pretends George Stephanopolous is a newsman.

    lloyd (019a97)

  46. I’m still trying to get my head around this. 10,000 homes destroyed. Unimaginable loss. How many treasures and how many memories lost? How much sorrow?

    That’s 10,000 families uprooted and suddenly refugees. This will take years to recover.

    I hope that the lessons of this are learned and learned well, because it can NEVER happen again. Next time they will be dragging officials out and hanging them, and rightly so. Mayor Bass and her cronies need to stop playing political games and get down to business. If it’s beyond them, they should resign and get people in there who can do what is needed.

    It seems like a lot of the repairs need to be at LADWP which failed in several directions. High tension lines need to be secured against wind. This may mean they get buried. Fine. While they are at it, they need a high-volume water transfer network so hydrants never run dry. If they need incentive, let them consider paying $57 billion in damages like a private utility would be facing. Or perhaps the WWI method referred to with “pour encourager les autres.”

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  47. This is why Trump won, and why Mayor Bass is in the deep guano, or at least should be.

    Paul Montagu (b55108)

  48. Here’s the thing about LADWP: for the last several decades, LA’s city-owned utilities have run large surpluses, providing funds that go to pay the city’s other expenses. Rather than raise taxes, which is hard, the city raises utility rates (trash, sewer, water, electricity) to create surpluses that go into the general fund.

    Like many private utilities, maintenance is the place where savings are found, and delayed maintenance has been the culprit in most of the wildfire disasters caused by utility lines. This event is nearly two orders of magnitude worse than even recent cases, and it is unlikely that utilities can pay the damages that have resulted.

    Public anger is going to be unfogiving in Los Angeles. I wonder where the buck will stop.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  49. The LADWP board should all resign.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  50. Among the people whose homes were destroyed: Hunter Biden’s home in Malibu, which was not insured. But he probably didn’t pay for it.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  51. Joe Biden was in Los Angeles when the big fires started, and cancelled his plans to make a presidential visit to Italy and the Vatican and meet with the Pope. (and the Italian Prime Minister)

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  52. Kevin M (a9545f) — 1/10/2025 @ 8:43 am

    The LADWP board should all resign.

    This is not Japan – or even Canada or any Parliamentary system.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  53. This is not Japan – or even Canada or any Parliamentary system.

    It is, however, filled with lawyers.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  54. @49 trump only won by a million and a half votes and 10 million who voted for biden in 2020 didn’t vote in2024. You can’t expect democrats who hate republicans to vote for them, trump already got those who would. Gangs of looters roaming burned out area on scooters. This wont help gavin newsom in 2028!

    asset (b1544d)

  55. They prepositioned equipment to fight fires. This is good, but not very cost efficient, In Redondo Beach, over time, preparations were made 30 times, but fires broke out only 3 times. You could compare that to insurance, or national defense.

    Two things made things mildly worse: A reservoir under contract to repair since February, and cutting power in place to prevent more fires (which also cut power to pump water uphill to fire hydrants.)

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

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