Patterico's Pontifications

11/12/2024

Mass Deportation: Will He or Won’t He?

Filed under: General — Dana @ 11:01 am



[guest post by Dana]

The question is: will he or won’t he deport millions of undocumented migrants? The President-elect has appointed former Immigration and Customs Enforcement Acting Director, and co-author of the Project 2025, Tom Homan, to be his new ‘border czar’:

“​​I’ve known Tom for a long time, and there is nobody better at policing and controlling our Borders. Likewise, Tom Homan will be in charge of all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin. Congratulations to Tom. I have no doubt he will do a fantastic, and long awaited for, job.”

Trump says a lot. Half of what he says is not true (“the 2020 election was rigged”) and the other half is dangerous rhetoric (threatening to use the military on the “enemy within” on Election Day – ‘enemy’ referring to Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff, for example). So is he really serious about the deportation of millions, given the exorbitant cost, complex logistics, the interruption in food production, and the hit the economy will take? Well, if Tom Homan is to be believed, and he appears to be a much more serious person than his boss, then it will likely happen, to one degree or another:

Sean Hannity asked if there will be a “grace period” in which undocumented immigrants are allowed a few months to get their affairs in order and leave the country.

. . .

Homan replied:

Criminals and gang members get no grace period. While we’re out prioritizing the public safety threats and national security threats, if you wanna self-deport, you should self-deport because, again, we know who you are and we’re gonna come and find you. So, if you wanna self-deport, that’s fine. But criminals and gang members, they get no favors from this administration. You came to this country illegally, which is a crime. You committed crimes against United States citizens, some heinous crimes. You get no grace period. So, we’re coming for you.

But for those others – the non-criminals – you wanna self-deport, I’m all for it because when you self-deport, they can put everything in order, their family business, if they got homes or whatever. They can put all that in order and leave with their family all together.

After Trump named his choice for ‘border czar,’ Homan was on Fox News show The Five, discussing his new position and goals, including deportation of criminals:

—Dana

41 Responses to “Mass Deportation: Will He or Won’t He?”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (1fcad0) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:01 am

  2. We can only hope, but I am not that optimistic. The entrenched interests simply all run the other way.

    Soronel Haetir (5dff4c) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:07 am

  3. It’s a sure way to ruin the economy, force the dollar off as global reserve currency, add in tariffs, permanently turn the US into an isolated economic block with low wages, high unemployment, and little global trade.

    But hey, elections have consequences, people chose with the information available, so we’re going to get it, good and hard.

    The end of America, not with a bang, but with a whimper. With a helping of morons and fascism.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:22 am

  4. Tougher the rhetoric, the more some self deport.
    If you listen close, Homan is going after 1.5 million criminal aliens first and he is warning that there will be collateral deportations
    In other words don’t hang out with criminal aliens or you risk getting taken as well.

    steveg (4d28b3) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:23 am

  5. Homan is saying what his boss is saying, and his boss’s boss. America is for Americans, and Americans only.

    They say they want to deport 10-15M, why not believe the words they’re saying?

    Did you not believe the thing the guy was saying for a decade? That seems to be your failing, not his.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:28 am

  6. I hope the Trump Administration follows Patterico’s advice — Deport the Criminals First:

    As regular readers know, I have repeatedly argued that our federal government should devote all its ICE agents (at least those not working on border enforcement) to the task of identifying and deporting those illegal aliens who commit crimes while in this country. In my view, it is outrageous that we would use a single ICE agent to arrest someone working hard for a living, while countless thousands of illegals sit in county jails and state prisons — their illegal immigrant status unknown, waiting to be released onto the streets once their sentences are completed.

    This seems like an utter no-brainer to me — but no matter how much I talk about it, the policy isn’t getting implemented. I recently read a Steve Lopez column in which a pro-illegal immigration activist argued that (as Lopez put it) “the tone of the debate has been and will continue to be changed by humanizing it.” I promised to try to “humanize” the problem of crime committed by illegal immigrant criminals, by seeking out and reporting stories of crimes that would have been prevented by pursuing my “deport the criminals first” policy.

    Patterico wrote this in 2007 but had been arguing for it since 2005 and probably before that. I believe he was the first internet proponent of this policy. The Trump Administration should embrace it.

    DRJ (0adca3) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:39 am

  7. I absolutely believe they will TRY.

    But, I guarantee you some judge in Hawaii will issue a national-wide moratorium, and game it so that it’s in place for his entire term.

    You watch…

    whembly (477db6) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:40 am

  8. Their goal may be total deportation, Klink, but they have to start somewhere specific. I think Homan knows that deporting theose already in jails and prisons would be the quickest, easiest, least objectionable path to follow. Start there.

    DRJ (0adca3) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:43 am

  9. Nationwide injunctions are a new tool used extensively by liberals with Trump 45 and less so by conservatives with Biden. I doubt SCOTUS will let it continue for 4 more years. Gorsuch has already criticized it.

    DRJ (0adca3) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:50 am

  10. But, I guarantee you some judge in Hawaii will issue a national-wide moratorium, and game it so that it’s in place for his entire term.

    You watch…

    whembly (477db6) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:40 am

    As I pointed out on a the Weekend Open Thread, Congress can pass legislation denying the ability of federal courts to hear any legal challenges to Trump’s immigration policies.

    Hopefully that will be the first order of business in January.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:50 am

  11. Congress could also deny the Supreme Court from hearing any immigration challenges.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:52 am

  12. The plenary power to control immigration is still limited by the Constitution. Once on US soil, don’t immigrants have limited rights that Congress can’t take away?

    DRJ (0adca3) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:04 pm

  13. But I agree that Congress can change the immigration process, subject to those limited rights.

    DRJ (0adca3) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:05 pm

  14. Homan’s is a “deport the criminals first” approach, which is common sense. There’s also mention of 1.3 million who already have their deportation orders, so that could be the next order of business.

    But Trump said 20 million, illegal and legal, and if Homan is too aggressive, we’re talking about deficit-busting, labor shortages and resulting inflation. Whether Trump is actually serious about that number or making sh-t up, I can’t say, but we’re at 4.1% unemployment, so we’d be risking more inflation and less GDP growth if too many are yanked out of the labor pool.

    Paul Montagu (509661) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:05 pm

  15. Their goal may be total deportation, Klink, but they have to start somewhere specific. I think Homan knows that deporting theose already in jails and prisons would be the quickest, easiest, least objectionable path to follow. Start there.

    There are between 41k and 53k in jail today. Then what? Then what?

    I submit that they’ll try to do exactly what they say, Oh, they’ll fail spectacularly, cause massive hardship, ruin the economy, but woopsie’s, that’s what the people voted for.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:06 pm

  16. The plenary power to control immigration is still limited by the Constitution. Once on US soil, don’t immigrants have limited rights that Congress can’t take away?

    DRJ (0adca3) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:04 pm

    Yes.

    In 1903, the Court in the Japanese Immigrant Case reviewed the legality of deporting an alien who had lawfully entered the United States, clarifying that an alien who has entered the country, and has become subject in all respects to its jurisdiction, and a part of its population could not be deported without an opportunity to be heard upon the questions involving his right to be and remain in the United States. In the decades that followed, the Supreme Court maintained the notion that once an alien lawfully enters and resides in this country he becomes invested with the rights guaranteed by the Constitution to all people within our borders.

    Eventually, the Supreme Court extended these constitutional protections to all aliens within the United States, including those who entered unlawfully, declaring that aliens who have once passed through our gates, even illegally, may be expelled only after proceedings conforming to traditional standards of fairness encompassed in due process of law. The Court reasoned that aliens physically present in the United States, regardless of their legal status, are recognized as persons guaranteed due process of law by the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments. ……(N)otwithstanding Congress’s indisputably broad power to regulate immigration, fundamental due process requirements notably constrained that power with respect to aliens within the territorial jurisdiction of the United States.

    Yet the Supreme Court has also suggested that the extent of due process protection may vary depending upon [the alien’s] status and circumstance……..
    ………..

    Footnotes and legal citations removed.

    For a broad overview of Congress’s immigration powers and related court rulings throughout history, see here.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:16 pm

  17. That was state prisons, in federal there were 83,698 illegal immigrants last year.

    Of course, letting people out of their punishment for crimes with a free trip, that won’t be popular with any constituency. No one wants to let felons off on their crimes though, who would?

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:22 pm

  18. I see that Dana has signed up with the Party of Can’t.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:33 pm

  19. Sean Hannity asked if there will be a “grace period” in which undocumented immigrants are allowed a few months to get their affairs in order and leave the country.

    The 1.3 million immigrants who have been served with final deportation orders should treat the time they have now as a “grace period.”

    As for families here illegally with US-born children (aka citizens) … they ought to find someone legally present who can foster or adopt them. Otherwise they will have to re-enter later on their own. Splitting up families by force is no good, but neither is allowing “anchor babies” to override immigration law.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:38 pm

  20. Yet the Supreme Court has also suggested that the extent of due process protection may vary depending upon [the alien’s] status and circumstance……..

    I would expect the government would have to show that they entered illegally at a minimum, or that they entered legally under a parole or waiver that was revocable without cause, or that they were convicted of a disqualifying crime.

    DACA may or may not protect people, and there may be some issue with Administrative Procedures in some circumstances. But there are lots of situations where due process isn’t all that involved. I expect that some folks will be held in custody while the courts grind it all out.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:46 pm

  21. It’s amusing to see those who screamed Rule of Law(!!!!1!!) the past eight years suddenly get all wobbly.

    lloyd (47c9fe) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:46 pm

  22. This is what happens after the peaceful transfer of power — stuff you might not like.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:48 pm

  23. Dana,

    they are illegal aliens, not “undocumented immigrants.”

    There aren’t any missing papers.

    NJRob (3a8468) — 11/12/2024 @ 1:13 pm

  24. Seems like the voters knew what this was about.

    Joe (584b3d) — 11/12/2024 @ 2:23 pm

  25. He’ll start. Then there will be bad press with photos that make ppl feel bad. He’s a thin skinned narcissist so that will freak him out and he’ll flail about and make a mess of it. When it’s over his supporters will claim that whatever happened is the best thing ever.

    Time123 (28bddf) — 11/12/2024 @ 2:58 pm

  26. Time123 (28bddf) — 11/12/2024 @ 2:58 pm

    He’ll start.

    Some people will disappear, and he’ll claim they all self deported. And some of those, with better education and time to plan, will immigrate to other countries

    Then there will be bad press with photos that make ppl feel bad. He’s a thin skinned narcissist so that will freak him out and he’ll flail about and make a mess of it. When it’s over

    Around the middle of 2026.

    his supporters will claim that whatever happened is the best thing ever.

    There may be a law passed. It will carry the imprimatur of Elon Muck (I don’t think they’ll break up so fast)

    The self-satisfaction of his supporters will stick with them provided nobody in the political opposition attempts to undermine that.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 11/12/2024 @ 3:19 pm

  27. lloyd (47c9fe) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:46 pm

    It’s amusing to see those who screamed Rule of Law(!!!!1!!) the past eight years suddenly get all wobbly.

    Vance and Trump went all wobbly on the squirrel (P’nut, pronounced peanut) that the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation confiscated during a raid on Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024 and later killed following procedures to test for rabies. (They are not talking about the raccoon – there was a better case against that.)

    The squirrel was illegal to keep as a pet, even though it probably would have died in the wild.

    https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/dec-investigates-raid-led-death-peanut-squirrel-19900975.php

    The DEC is refusing to reveal the results of the rabies test, demanding that a Freedom of Information Law request be filed first.

    They also questioned the immigration status of his wife.

    Now what prompted it had probably something to do with him and his wife using the squirrel to drive traffic to their “Only Fans” pornographic website, which evidently was not picked up by search engines.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 11/12/2024 @ 3:30 pm

  28. Bad press?

    More like a blizzard of legal challenges accompanied in collusion with the bad press.

    Removal of criminal aliens was down 74% under Biden.

    Homan said he would first go after the 1.5 Million immigrants who have committed crimes that invalidate status and are under final order of removal by a judge .

    A final order of removal is a court order that requires a non-citizen to leave the United States. It’s issued by an immigration judge after ruling against an individual’s immigration case. A final order of removal may be issued for a number of reasons, including: Violating immigration laws, Having a criminal conviction, and Legal status expiring.

    You’d think we could all agree an immigrant that has committed a crime that earned he/she/etc, a final order of removal by a judge should then be removed. But they will fight tooth and nail. Why? To what end?

    steveg (4d28b3) — 11/12/2024 @ 3:33 pm

  29. A final order of removal is a court order that requires a non-citizen to leave the United States. It’s issued by an immigration judge after ruling against an individual’s immigration case. A final order of removal may be issued for a number of reasons, including: Violating immigration laws, Having a criminal conviction, and Legal status expiring.

    Plagiarized/stolen from an AI bot- I have mixed feelings but the correct thing to do was to attribute the work to the algorithm

    steveg (4d28b3) — 11/12/2024 @ 3:36 pm

  30. But they will fight tooth and nail. Why? To what end?

    It’s not due process if they don’t win.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/12/2024 @ 3:39 pm

  31. Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/12/2024 @ 12:46 pm

    . But there are lots of situations where due process isn’t all that involved.

    There are about 1 million people who have received final orders of deportation, which means they have already had due process. They can apply for hardship deferments (hard to get)

    There are no anchor babies – by law, or otherwise millions would theoretically qualify – but there are anchor spouses.

    I expect that some folks will be held in custody while the courts grind it all out.

    To try to pressure them into giving up their asylum cases.

    But there are a limited number of people that they can hold.

    I suspect one thing they may do is hang around courtrooms ready to detain foreigners arrested but released without bail or bailed out. And there may be an issue with judges trying to sneak them out of court.

    They will also bring raids *starting some six months after the inauguration) against meatpacking plants who do not bribe agents (at least to be given advance notice.)

    Before the raid, they will convert many people from legal status (Temporary Protected Status) to illegal status so they have people to catch since these meatpacking plants have largely learned how to recruit people who are legally allowed to work but similar in some ways to illegal immigrants (no strong ties to where they live now, low skills, limited knowledge of English and who speak the same language

    Under the new system more employees will be lied to.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 11/12/2024 @ 3:45 pm

  32. Homan said he would first go after the 1.5 Million immigrants who have committed crimes that invalidate status and are under final order of removal by a judge .

    Those are two distinct categories!!

    The only way to limit it to people who have committed crimes (for which they do not necessarily need to be convicted) is to spurn any they encounter who have not.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 11/12/2024 @ 3:48 pm

  33. Bad press?

    Will cause alteration of policy. Legal challenges will not.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 11/12/2024 @ 3:49 pm

  34. Comedy gold!

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/12/2024 @ 3:53 pm

  35. DRJ (0adca3) — 11/12/2024 @ 11:43 am

    I think Homan knows that deporting those already in jails and prisons would be the quickest, easiest, least objectionable path to follow. Start there.

    Least objectionable?

    If so: The American born criminals will be so jealous of the criminal aliens serving long sentences that some will pretend to be illegal aliens, as happened with a few members of the Mafia in the 1950s. They wanted the same deal organized crime boss Lucky Luciano got. Now a lot depends on what country they are going to, Jamaica treats deported criminals the best; Haiti the worst.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 11/12/2024 @ 3:59 pm

  36. Sammy
    Should have said go after illegal immigrants who have been “convicted of crimes” that have resulted in a final order of removal and also should have said he’d go after persons under final order of removal for other reasons (Violating immigration laws, Legal status expiring.)

    Homan also implied that there would be collateral removals- I think he meant persons of illegal status should be careful not to hang out with illegal immigrants who have been convicted of crimes because they were going to get swept up.

    I’m pro-immigrant, know lots of illegal aliens by name and enjoy their company at the jobs, but if I was in their shoes, I’d be more careful who I hang out with.

    steveg (4d28b3) — 11/12/2024 @ 4:37 pm

  37. Not enough man power. They will periodically show up at various construction sites, factories, and lawn care companies and showily arrest a bunch of people employed there who will then sit in detention. Of the people actually in the States, my guess would be 10,000 to 40,000 a year, tops. They will then claim the number of people turned back at the borders in their count of deportations to make it look like they are deporting the promised number of people from within the country. There isn’t enough manpower to actually find and arrest 10 million people.

    Nic (120c94) — 11/12/2024 @ 4:41 pm

  38. The Bund has been talking about the Venezuelan gang being a big problem. How are you going to deport them?

    The Cubans?

    Chinese?

    Indians?

    Obviously Mexico is the largest by far, but India has half a million.

    Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 11/12/2024 @ 4:46 pm

  39. Sammy

    I think you misunderstand Homan’s position. He is not releasing them for prison or jail early…. maybe a couple days early, but he’s going to go to all the prisons and jails that cooperate and pick them up upon release. Where they don’t cooperate, show up anyway. I don’t know if he can show up at the prison or jail with a federal order signed by a judge demanding release into federal custody.

    I’d force the guys like Newsom and Pritzker to fight me over murderers, rapists etc and try to torpedo their Presidential aspirations with it if they fail to comply.

    steveg (4d28b3) — 11/12/2024 @ 4:57 pm

  40. Homan also implied that there would be collateral removals- I think he meant persons of illegal status should be careful not to hang out with illegal immigrants who have been convicted of crimes because they were going to get swept up.

    Like family members.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/12/2024 @ 5:03 pm

  41. There isn’t enough manpower to actually find and arrest 10 million people.

    There’s always the National Guard.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/12/2024 @ 5:05 pm

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