Patterico's Pontifications

11/5/2024

Election Day Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 3:01 pm



[guest post by Dana]

Here we go. I don’t have much to say, as it’s just a waiting game now. I don’t believe anyone is really struggling to figure out which candidate to vote for. So, let’s talk about the election, the candidates, and anything on your mind related to today’s voting. Be civil.

And how’s it going with the candidates? Let’s take a look-see:

Donald Trump posted this morning:

A lot of talk about massive CHEATING in Philadelphia. Law Enforcement coming!!!

And as a reminder:

—Dana

234 Responses to “Election Day Open Thread”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (ec6237)

  2. ANN ARBOR, MI – A 25-year-old man has been charged in federal court after threatening to kill former President Donald Trump and Christian conservatives if Trump wins the election.

    Isaac Sissel was arrested the morning of Tuesday, Nov. 5 after an anonymous online submission to the FBI National Threat Operations Center indicated he planned to carry out an attack against conservative Christians.

    BuDuh (d4ff83)

  3. Just voted for Jill Stein. Took forever to vote know on all the judges and propositions except the one on abortion YES.

    asset (8ccba0)

  4. Lara Trump

    @LaraLeaTrump

    Throughout the day we have been monitoring slow ballot counting in Milwaukee.

    Now, our legal team has learned that the counting took place in unsecured conditions and the city now has to start over, wildly extending the counting timeline.

    This is an unacceptable example of incompetent election administration in a key swing state: voters deserve better and we are unambiguously calling on Milwaukee’s officials to DO THEIR JOBS and count ballots quickly and effectively. Anything less undermines voter confidence.

    We will update the situation when we know more.

    BuDuh (d4ff83)

  5. Ouch!

    A federal judge has denied an injunction in the election interference lawsuit filed by the Republican National Committee and the Georgia Republican Party against seven counties in the state.

    The lawsuit alleges that the seven county election boards, including the Chatham County Board of Elections, illegally accepted absentee ballots this past weekend, as well as Monday and on Election Day.
    …………..
    The lawsuit claims that the acceptance of absentee ballots should’ve ended when the early voting period did- and that the RNC had to scramble to send volunteers to act as poll watchers. The Chairman of the Georgia Republican Party previously told WTOC that the situation “smacked of partisan advantage.” The lawsuit asked for an injunction, meaning that that any absentee ballots accepted after Friday, November 1, be segregated from other absentee ballots.
    …………..
    Judge Baker, however, ruled in favor of the counties on Tuesday, saying that the lawsuit didn’t withstand “the most basic level of statutory review and reading comprehension.” The judge ruled that the ballots will be counted, citing Georgia law that dictates the absentee voting period as a different entity than the advance voting period. The judge also said that an injunction would deprive legal absentee voters of the right to vote.
    …………..
    Judge Baker also warned lawyers for RNC and the Georgia Republican Party that he was concerned with the litigation techniques used in the case, saying that some of the facts in the lawsuit were incorrect. The lawsuit alleged that Athens-Clarke County accepted absentee ballot drop-offs over the weekend, when in reality, they did not. The lawsuit also said that the RNC was not given adequate notice that Cobb County would be accepting absentee ballot drop offs on November 2 and November 4, but the county released that information in August and once again in October.
    ………….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  6. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/5/2024 @ 4:11 pm

    More:

    ……….
    In a stinging oral ruling denying the Republican National Committee’s bid for emergency action, U.S. District Judge R. Stan Baker, a Trump appointee, warned that the party’s bid to toss absentee ballots collected in seven historically Democratic-leaning counties in Georgia over the weekend was based on “no supporting facts” and was an attempt to “tip the scales of this election by discriminating against” people less likely to back Republican candidates.
    ………..
    Baker noted that the RNC’s demands in the case would have effectively eliminated an untold number of absentee ballots, including those delivered on Election Day, even though the law explicitly allows them to continue coming in until the polls close.
    ………..
    There were other reasons, Baker said, that he was unlikely to advance the case further: It was brought too late, ran afoul of long-standing legal principles not to change voting procedures on the cusp of Election Day and overlapped with a state-level case brought earlier in Fulton County. The judge in that case similarly rejected the claims, Baker noted.
    #########

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  7. https://x.com/2waytvapp/status/1853957538850787748

    Food for thought. We shall see.

    NJRob (b3679e)

  8. Trump is running ahead of Cruz in TX.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  9. I hate the music on CNN.

    Nic (120c94)

  10. Rick Scott wins in FL. That was one of the races the Democrats hoped for.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  11. I hate the music on CNN.

    I hate the drill-down to counties with 2% of the vote in, as though this might show a trend. I’m also noting that all the trends that King is trying to show are about how Harris is doing better. No mention of how she lost Miama-Dade and tied in Palm Beach, both Democrat strongholds in recent years.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  12. @Kevin@11 I’m not thrilled with the drill-down either. I think they’ve already called Florida for Trump, though, so they don’t need to do the drill down there.

    Nic (120c94)

  13. https://x.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1853966461896630649?

    Nice when our political experiment is working as intended.

    NJRob (b3679e)

  14. I think they’ve already called Florida for Trump

    Yes, but they held off until the polls in the Panhandle closed — there was plenty of data they ignored before then.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  15. @Kevin@15 Ah. I was not watching before they had already called Florida (was commuting instead :P)

    Nic (120c94)

  16. Florida seems to be a solid R victory across the board. The abortion and marijuana initiatives failed (they needed 60%). Scott won the onetime “toss-up” Senate seat by double digits.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  17. GA looks likely for Trump (NYT has it 72% chance).

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  18. Democrat wins NC governor seat against crazy man.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  19. Putin casts his vote for Trump. He doesn’t seem to have gotten the memo that “Russia, Russia, Russia” was a hoax.

    lurker (c23034)

  20. Both NC and SC pass constitutional amendments to clarify that ONLY a citizen can vote. 80+ %

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  21. Democrat wins NC governor seat against crazy man.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/5/2024 @ 5:52 pm

    Historically that has been the case in NC. Not a surprise.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  22. There’ve been 32 non-credible bomb threats in GA, mostly in black polling places, originating from Russia.
    Putin is trying to disrupt an election in a swing state, attempting to suppress the minority vote.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  23. GA looks likely for Trump (NYT has it 72% chance).

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/5/2024 @ 5:50 pm

    I concluded that an hour ago based on the county drill downs you object to.

    lurker (c23034)

  24. So, Russia behind bomb threats on polling places. Russia planting bombs on aircraft. Russia importing Norks to fight in Ukraine. It’s like they WANT a war.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  25. I concluded that an hour ago based on the county drill downs you object to.

    I objected to them because they were really really tedious and many of the early ones had very little traction (e.g. 500 votes in Pittsburgh).

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  26. NYT has Trump with 93% chance in Ohio. Senate race tied.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  27. No real surprises yet.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  28. I’m finding the NYT website to be incredibly useful.

    The current vote in VA is close, but Harris will win it.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  29. My Trump win prediction is looking good. I’m nauseated.

    lurker (c23034)

  30. Trump doesn’t NEED PA, Harris does. If Trump gets AZ, NC, OH and ME2, and Harris gets NE2, NH and NV, Trump has 262 EVs. WI, MI or PA would do it. Harris would need all 3.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  31. NV doesn’t really help either of them.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  32. My county in NM is running 50-50

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  33. @31. It’s been common knowledge that PA would probably decide the race. GA, NC and AZ were fool’s gold for Harris, and it was unlikely Trump would win either WI or MI unless he also won PA, which alone would be sufficient. So it’s always been about PA.

    lurker (c23034)

  34. Cook County and St Clair county dumps must have came in…IL Dem house delegation was on verge of losing 3 CDs a half hour ago (Casten, Sorenson, and Jesse Jackson s other son!).

    urbanleftbehind (141637)

  35. Tempted to listen to one of my favorite 90s bands, Live (from York PA), the song Shit Town in particular.

    urbanleftbehind (141637)

  36. Trump is outperforming 2020 in PA. He’s going to win PA. It’s over.

    lurker (c23034)

  37. NYT has election “leaning Trump” with an EV estimate of 286-252 with a 0.3% popular vote edge for Harris.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  38. https://www.nytimes.com

    For the comfort of the NeverTrump voter here’s the Times homepage. That will be the go to and it has their needle that gave Hillary a 95% chance of winning

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  39. Congrats to Sen Cruz on winning reelection

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  40. The Times is now forecasting Trump to win the popular vote

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  41. I guess I’m a terrible predictor of elections. Oh well.

    lloyd (ba6c7e)

  42. Drudge hardest hit.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  43. Apparently they’ve found 300,000 more votes in GA.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  44. Iowa quickly called for Trump.

    So much for those polls

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  45. Drudge hardest hit.

    I’d go Ann Selzer. Anyone who bought her nonsense has A LOT to answer for.

    SaveFarris (2ab502)

  46. NYT now has WI, MI as “leans R” and MN as a tossup.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  47. https://x.com/dennislennox/status/1853995956351463497?

    Republican gubernatorial candidate wins in Puerto Rico.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  48. Interesting times.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  49. The GOP could end up with 55 Senate seats.

    Moreno beasts Sherrod Brown.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  50. *beats

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  51. Bernie Moreno wins Ohio. Good news.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  52. Kelly Ayotte wins New Hampshire gubernatorial race.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  53. Having predicted the election, I’ll now predict that the next four years are going to be a disaster for the Reagan Republicanism most Trump voters claimed to stand for. First victim: Ukraine.

    lurker (c23034)

  54. How many ballots in trunks needed? Looks like a lot.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  55. Reagan Republicanism died with Romney. Trumpism will die with Trump.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  56. “Drudge hardest hit.”

    Liz hardest hit.

    lloyd (442e17)

  57. Ugh.

    Nic (120c94)

  58. The electorate is in for a real scolding. Off to bed and no dinner.

    lloyd (d006b9)

  59. Most of the blame should go to Joe Biden and his bad decisions.
    His first was picking Kamala for a VP, all because he boxed himself in, confining himself to picking a black Democrat woman for a running mate in the wake of George Floyd.

    His second was even worse, him not learning the lesson that Ruth Bader Ginsburg should’ve taught him, that it’s dumb to stay too long on the job.
    Worse than that, Joe broke his own pledge, where he said that he wouldn’t stay too long on the job and be a one-term president. Instead, he thought it was a good idea to run for reelection, and the rest is history.

    Putin has to be smiling.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  60. Why would you blame Biden, Paul, when you have said that you have known about his diminished capacity for several years?

    Serious question. Not snark.

    BuDuh (d4ff83)

  61. Why would you blame Biden, Paul, when you have said that you have known about his diminished capacity for several years?

    Well, the knives will be coming out shortly, and lots of people will get blamed. The sycophant news media will get its share.

    I’m waiting for the inevitable “We didn’t go hard left like we should have” narrative.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  62. Why would you blame Biden, Paul, when you have said that you have known about his diminished capacity for several years?

    I’ve said that both Biden and Trump are mentally diminished. Biden has degraded more in the last four years, obviously, but I don’t exempt him from blame for the decisions he made.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  63. Biden has degraded more in the last four years, obviously,

    What date was his diminished capacity an exemption for his decision making?

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  64. What date was his diminished capacity an exemption for his decision making?

    Sounds like your serious questions have ended, BuDuh. Moving on, but you sound like you’re mixing up diminished with incapacitated.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  65. DecisionDesk called PA for Trump, so he’s at 270.

    I’ve said that both Biden and Trump are mentally diminished, and now America is stuck with a mentally diminished malignant narcissist until we’re unstuck. May God help us all.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  66. Well… I don’t see the conversation going anywhere. Thanks anyways, Paul.

    I am of the opinion that Biden has never been in any sort of control of important decisions since before the 2020 election.

    BuDuh (4214e4)

  67. Well… I don’t see the conversation going anywhere. Thanks anyways, Paul.

    It didn’t after your dumbass question, so you can f-ck off now.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  68. I’m waiting for the inevitable “We didn’t go hard left like we should have” narrative.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/5/2024 @ 9:48 pm

    asset’s been saying that since forever.

    lurker (c23034)

  69. I am of the opinion that Biden has never been in any sort of control of important decisions since before the 2020 election.

    That’s … not democracy. Seems important to discuss…

    SaveFarris (2ab502)

  70. From Dana, Paul.

    Be civil.

    I am sorry you are this upset. This is my last comment here.

    I hope you do ok over the next four years. Same goes for everyone here.

    Be well.

    BuDuh (d4ff83)

  71. Don’t be a troll, BuDuh. Good riddance if this your last comment here.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  72. Hi Paul

    President Trump probably is diminished a bit, but he’s done pretty well on the stump, under pressure.
    He’s never been polished.
    One thing that stands out that probably scares the hell out of nevertrump is that he has really showed a heavy work ethic on the campaign trail. Trump outworked Harris by a mile

    I want politicians I don’t like to be lazy- Gavin Newsom, thank goodness, is lazy. godforbid Gavin be the type that gets up at 5AM, goes to work and doesn’t quit until 9-10 PM
    Biden was lazy and is incredibly diminished. Biden made Trump look tack sharp- so did Harris. Harris can follow a script like the one she read at the Kavanaugh abomination, but she’s not sharp at all. She goes deer in the headlights over easy stuff- one of my favorite teachers used to ask easy questions to warm up the class and sometimes no hands went up fast enough and he’d say “the hard questions come later Mr Steve G”. When Harris spoke and acted after easy questions, I kept thinking “uh boy, hard questions come later and she doesn’t know the answer and is afraid to be exposed as a dud”
    She’s not dumb, but she is very diminished-maybe its the edibles. Or maybe its the effort it takes to straddle every issue, maybe its mental fatigue from all the chameleonic energy burned constantly changing color
    She lost to Trump- by nevertrump standards losing to Trump is the very definition of, or proof of, diminished capability.

    steveg (4d28b3)

  73. Looks like AOC will be the first woman president after all! Democrat party will have to appeal to latinx and AOC is latina! The Party base should do a cleansing of the d.n.c. The corporatists and donor class are discredited Moderate democrat senators are being cleared out like 1980. Too bad about ukraine ;but it is what it is. Maybe democrats can do to republicans on who lost ukraine the way republicans did to democrats on who lost china. Let the purge begin!

    asset (a4910a)

  74. Don’t be a troll, BuDuh. Good riddance if this your last comment here.
    Paul Montagu (7d8750) — 11/5/2024 @ 11:04 pm

    Montagu…

    So many great commenters were here for years before you showed up. This was once a serious and powerful blog with hundreds, if not more, Patriotic conservatives who contributed to much more than your narrow googlelinking nonsense. Poliical commentary, sock poppetry, football, grilling, cars, and so much more. Then Huffererico embraced the likes of you, and they all exited, staged left.

    Good Riddance? I can only wonder why this 40 commenter blog still exists. Stay here with and keep stroking with your circle jerk hosted by the CALPER.

    Trump Wins…TRUMP WINS!

    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    Matador (a430ed)

  75. All that law fare and Trump is looking like he will win the popular vote and the electoral college
    Americans don’t like persecution and persecutors. The never trump position is that the 80,000,000 were duped into believing this persecution charade by a criminal con man. The 80,000,000 repudiated never trump, Liz Cheney grifters. The jury that matters studied returned a vote and now the law fare types will go into nullification overdrive unable as they are to ever let a sleeping dog sleep

    Steveg (f131c1)

  76. Looks like AOC will be the first woman president after all!

    Keep dreaming. You’ll be president before AOC is.

    lurker (c23034)

  77. @79 Not dreaming, purging the dnc. and their donor class.

    asset (a4910a)

  78. @Steveg,

    The issue voters most cared about was the economy, followed by democracy and national security. Lawfare didn’t make the top 20. I very much doubt that disapproval of the persecution of poor Donald is the message voters were sending.

    Also, he is a criminal.

    lurker (c23034)

  79. Sure. The revolution’s always right around the corner.

    lurker (c23034)

  80. (In case it wasn’t clear, @82 is for asset, not Steveg)

    lurker (c23034)

  81. @82 when the left takes over the democratic party (we start now!) a revolution won’t be necessary. Purging the corporate donor class d.n.c. stooges who have been discredited twice by trump despite their spending billions more. The embittered democrat party base will be ready for the left’s take over of the party! AOC and the squad would never have been elected in 2018 if hillary clinton would have won in 2016. Almost everyone here is some shade of conservative and think differently then democrats. A liberal and a lefty have similar goals ;but different tactics on how to achieve them. Biden’s party moderates cost us two squad members with the help of gaza black swan ;but they are discredited now.

    asset (a4910a)

  82. The country was not ready for a First Generation East Indian-Black Jamaican woman married to a rich Jew.

    nk (c3c57d)

  83. So now he is legitimate?

    The story will be the tension between Trump and the traditional GOP types.
    Will Harris even try again in a primary in 2028?

    Dept will be 36-37 Trillion by the time he moves into the WH.

    Joe (584b3d)

  84. My apologies for telling a commenter to f–k off.
    It is what it is.

    Paul Montagu (471c70)

  85. Supreme Court judges and this will be McConnell’s legacy.

    Paul Montagu (471c70)

  86. The sun is shining. It is a new day. Good morning.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  87. Good morning, NJRob! You, I will congratulate on your team’s win. Congratulations!

    nk (c3c57d)

  88. Donald J. Trump
    GOP 885,646 56.1%
    Kamala Harris
    DEM 672,065 42.6%
    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
    IND 12,249 0.8%
    Chase Oliver
    LIB 6,807 0.4%
    Claudia De la Cruz
    IND 1,329 0.1%
    Total 1,578,865

    Iowa results.

    Selzer only off by 22%

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  89. It’s the best choice for America out of the 2 options that were left. Too bad we didn’t nominate DeSantis who knows how to govern and lead

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  90. Big win for post-liberal politics and economics. Also for measles, mumps, polio, and tooth decay.

    – David Frum

    lurker (c23034)

  91. Well,

    I’m honestly surprised, but I don’t really find the news reliable and few will walk away from this election really pleased with the media.

    I feel like it’s trolly to keep mentioning how much better it would have been for the GOP to unify and compromise on someone palatable to the populist movement and good at leadership. But that’s what I think.

    Let’s all appreciate that such a dramatic change in course in such a powerful nation is going to happen peacefully. That is no small thing to the lives of our loved ones.

    Dustin (b5c8ea)

  92. So when does the round up of childless cat ladies begin?

    lloyd (442e17)

  93. The self-anointed smartest people in the room are apparently so smart they can figure out how to win anything.

    The easiest prediction to make is that Nevertrump will blame everyone and everything but themselves. The over the top rhetoric, the vilification, demonization via Hitler, fascist, racist insults, the horrible policies, the weaponizing of the justice system — all the behaviors we were warned Trump would do — were always on the Democrat wish list going back decades. It needed an enabler, and Nevertrump was only too happy to oblige. The voters rightly recoiled, but they’re just too dumb to realize Trump was the target not them. Sure. And, the grapes were sour anyway.

    Trump winning is actually great news for Nevertrump. They know it. To their great relief, they can keep convincing themselves everyone is an evil a$$hole except them for another four years, which is all they really care about.

    lloyd (442e17)

  94. *they can’t figure out

    Duh

    lloyd (442e17)

  95. Hey, where’s Klink?

    lloyd (442e17)

  96. The easiest prediction to make is that Nevertrump will blame everyone and everything but themselves.

    Indeed, because it’s false. The people responsible for putting Trump in office are the people who made the conscious choice to vote for him, as it was in 2016.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  97. The easiest prediction to make is that Nevertrump will blame everyone and everything but themselves.

    The easiest prediction is that they will be proved right, again.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  98. @101 Yes, when you’re never in the arena you never lose, and can always criticize. My point exactly.

    lloyd (442e17)

  99. Nevertrump never has a strategy for winning, only for making a certain side lose. And they can’t even do that right.

    lloyd (442e17)

  100. Frum is repulsive and bigoted as usual. He doesn’t hide his racism and bigotry at all.

    NJRob (294b85)

  101. Oh, we have a strategy, lloyd, and it’s a GOP with Trump no longer in it. Unlike your Orange Massa, I concede that we lost.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  102. @90

    Good morning, NJRob! You, I will congratulate on your team’s win. Congratulations!

    nk (c3c57d) — 11/6/2024 @ 4:20 am

    You’re a good egg nk. G’morning too!

    whembly (477db6)

  103. DOW up 1300 points today.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  104. George Gascon loses in landslide.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  105. @107

    DOW up 1300 points today.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 7:19 am

    That’s… quite something.

    Not sure what to make of that.

    whembly (477db6)

  106. If Trump truly does win the popular vote (wtf…how??), will the National Vote Compact states reconsider?

    whembly (477db6)

  107. The next CA Governor’s race could get more interesting.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  108. Not sure what to make of that.

    Expected easement of regulations and lower fuel costs. No hike in corporate taxation.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  109. Incumbents lead in all competitive CA Congressional seats. Republican leading in open O.C. seat vacated by Katie Porter (possible flip).

    https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2024-election-live-results-competitive-congressional-seats-cd47-cd45-cd41

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  110. And congratulations also to you, whembly!

    nk (c3c57d)

  111. @105 Don’t change your strategy, Paul. It’s working great.

    lloyd (2ea303)

  112. Oh, we have a strategy, lloyd, and it’s a GOP with Trump no longer in it.

    One plan would be to invade and take over the Libertarian Party and compete in the midterms as a Reaganite movement.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  113. Nailed it:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/democrats-get-a-wake-up-call-about-how-unpopular-their-agenda-really-is/

    Democrats believed that progressivism was still popular — and the traditional midterm backlash of 2018 convinced them that Trump had proven to be so unpopular, they could move as far to the left as they wanted, and the electorate would still always pick them over Trump and his MAGA candidates.

    They thought wrong.

    Progressivism, liberalism, woke-ism — they will never be the same. They won’t wither away completely. But the Democrats just learned the hardest of hard lessons: The electorate — not just straight white males — doesn’t want their brand of deeply divisive identity politics, deliberate conflation of legal immigration and illegal immigration, policies that reflexively recommend and enact permanent bodily changes for teenagers questioning their gender identity, and basically the entire agenda of the 2019 Kamala Harris presidential campaign.

    whembly (477db6)

  114. Trump calling for recounts in PA, GA, WI, MI and AZ due to reports of voting irregularities.

    Not.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  115. when the left takes over the democratic party

    You mean they haven’t already, with their focus on transgender rights, abortion, and woke policies in general?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  116. DOW up 1300 points today.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 7:19 am

    That’s… quite something.

    Not sure what to make of that.

    whembly (477db6) — 11/6/2024 @ 7:20 am

    It’s easy:

    Donald Trump’s election victory powered the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its biggest gain in two years, with a broad market rally lifting shares of banks, industrial companies and small-cap firms that are expected to benefit from continued economic expansion.

    The gains were broadly distributed as Wall Street bet that Trump’s promises of deregulation and tax cuts will further ignite an economy that already has posted strong gains in recent years. But sectors that were expected to benefit from Democratic policies, such as electric-vehicle companies and clean-energy related industries, were declining sharply.

    The promise of four years of Republican rule drove the latest rise in Treasury yields, reflecting expectations of stronger growth and inflation, while gold prices fell as fears that the election results would be contested and spark social unrest weren’t realized.
    ………..
    Shares in Tesla, the electric-vehicle company helmed by Trump ally and donor Elon Musk, were up 15%. Oil prices fell on the prospect of Trump policies that will encourage fossil-fuel production. Bank stocks, which could benefit from lighter regulation, rose strongly. JPMorgan shares were up 6.9%.

    The gap between yields on ordinary Treasurys and those on inflation-protected Treasurys widened, a sign that investors think that the policies of a second Trump term could put upward pressure on inflation.
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  117. You mean they haven’t already, with their focus on transgender rights, abortion, and woke policies in general?

    No, no, no, you don’t understand. The problem in 2024 was that the candidate tried to woo the center. Mistake. Only a candidate who is true to progressive values can win. Warren/AOC 2028!

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  118. asset (a4910a) — 11/6/2024 @ 2:22 am

    The Democrat left is headed in the wrong direction, away from voters’ main concerns:

    Kamala Harris’s defeat generated swift condemnation and soul-searching among Democrats, who are handing the White House back to a Republican they see as deeply flawed after their party failed to connect with voters preoccupied by inflation and illegal immigration.
    ………..
    The immediate reaction from party leaders was despondency. Asked who was to blame for the loss, one senior Democrat simply said “everyone.” The party lost ground with chunks of voters who used to be core to their coalition, including working-class voters and minorities, and lost rural areas in big numbers and failed to make up that deficit.
    ………..
    “The elites of this country alienated voters everywhere because they didn’t want to hear what working and middle class voters were screaming for four years—focus on us and our problems, not your agenda to destroy Trump,” ( said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic strategist and former chief of staff to centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.)).
    ………..
    ………..(T)he party has become too elite and has lost its ability to appeal to the working-class voters who traditionally have backed Democratic candidates. ………..
    The party’s center-left contingent wants to see Democrats take on issues like the economy, crime and the immigration in a more direct way while avoiding some of the cultural issues, like rights for transgender people, that they feel turned off middle-of-the-road voters.

    But the progressive wing of the party sees it differently, arguing that Democrats need to move further to the left to excite a new batch of voters or take other steps to try to lure back the types of voters who have moved to Trump in recent years.

    “We pursued a strategy in which we told working-class, noncollege whites this is not the party for you,” said Faiz Shakir, a top adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.). Liberals believe the party could turn out swaths of new voters if it embraces a more populist approach that delivers tangible benefits.
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  119. Link to post 123.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  120. Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 9:03 am

    I don’t think Democrats will be nominating a woman candidate for a while.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  121. Final exit poll numbers will provide for a great deal of detailed analysis, but one thing that appears to be true is that the Republicans’ get out the vote operation was surprisingly strong. That had been a huge question mark because the Trump campaign had farmed it out to an untested organization run by Charlie Kirk, but it would appear that there will be about ten million more votes for Donald Trump nationwide than there were when he beat Hillary! Clinton in the electoral college eight years ago. For her part, Kamala Harris will likely end up with three to four million more votes than First Lady/Senator/Secretary Clinton received in 2016.

    JVW (b301cc)

  122. Warren/AOC 2028!

    It would be almost perfect if we followed up on Joe Biden, nearly 78 years old on Election Day 2020, with Donald Trump, 78 years old on Election Day 2024, and then finally with Elizabeth Warren, 79 years old on Election Day 2028.

    JVW (b301cc)

  123. Preliminary exit poll data:

    Donald Trump refashioned the Republican Party in 2016 into the political home of white, working-class Americans. Preliminary figures show that he succeeded this year in one of the GOP’s most important ambitions since then: Growing into a party that draws working-class voters of all races.
    ………..
    Black and Latino voters, particularly men, tilted more toward Trump this year than in 2020, with Black support nearly doubling to 15% and Latino support growing by 6 points, to 41%, according to preliminary results from AP VoteCast, a large survey of people who cast ballots this year. While the shift toward Trump included those both with and without college degrees, the greater move was among noncollege minority voters.

    Among those surveyed, Trump won noncollege voters of all racial backgrounds by 12 percentage points over his Democratic opponent, compared with a 4-point edge in 2020—an important shift toward the Republican Party in a group that accounted for nearly 60% of all voters. ……..

    Together, the movement toward Trump among minority voters and noncollege voters of many racial groups suggested an important change in America’s political divisions: While we are becoming less divided by race and ethnicity, the nation’s largely metropolitan professional class and its working class have moved farther apart.
    ………
    ………If the preliminary VoteCast numbers hold, Democrats will have to decide whether their best course is to move to the political center on some progressive causes in an attempt to recapture some of the defecting voters, or whether the better course is to try to energize the restive liberal wing. Democrats will also have to sort through why the party gained no benefit from three big pieces of legislation passed early in Biden’s term that triggered investments in infrastructure, semiconductor plants and other construction. Biden spent months traveling the country touting the creation of jobs that pay “over $100,000 a year, and you don’t need a college degree.”
    ………
    ………(T)here was an explosive change among young voters, those under 30. While young women remained solidly Democratic, though significantly less so than in 2020, young men shifted dramatically to the right. Biden in 2020 won young men under 30 by 15 points, VoteCast found. On Tuesday, Trump won them by 13 points.
    ………
    Working-class voters from minority groups rose to 11% of his coalition, from 9% four years ago. Overall, the survey results show Trump drawing 16% of his support from racial and ethnic minorities, 2 points more than in 2020.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  124. Among those surveyed, Trump won noncollege voters of all racial backgrounds by 12 percentage points over his Democratic opponent, compared with a 4-point edge in 2020—an important shift toward the Republican Party in a group that accounted for nearly 60% of all voters.

    Democrats will try, and in fact already are trying, to subtly shift this into the idea that Trump’s support is among the poorest Americans. But of course we know that a college education no longer automatically correlates to financial security. And just like every other year, I’m willing to bet that the lowest income voters (I think we peg that as under $30,000) will break for the Democrat candidate by the usual 55%-45% margin.

    In fact, I’ll lay down a marker and say that Harris will win the under $30,000 voter and perhaps the $30,000-$50,000 voter, but that Trump will win all of the remaining brackets (Biden overwhelmingly won the $50,000-$100,000 bracket and tied Trump for the $200,000+ bracket in 2020, and Hillary! was within one point of Trump in both of those groups in 2016). And given Trump’s almost certain popular vote win with a majority of the ballots cast, Trump might win the $30k-50k bracket too.

    JVW (b301cc)

  125. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/6/2024 @ 9:32 am

    The big question is whether any of the potential 2028 Republican candidates will have the same charisma as Trump to hold this new coalition together. Vance might; but unless Ron DeSantis has a personality transplant he doesn’t; and nobody would believe that Nikki Haley would suddenly become a populist-she’s part of the Republican elite.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  126. It looks pretty certain now that Trump will win Michigan, Nevada, and (with slightly less certainty) Arizona, which combined with Alaska will bring him to 312 Electoral Votes, greater than the 306 he received in 2016 and the 306 that Joe Biden received in 2020. I’m pretty sure that beating both his and Biden’s totals is very important to Donald Trump.

    I see that Fox has already called Michigan for Trump, but the Democrat might yet win that Senate seat by the narrowest of margins.

    JVW (b301cc)

  127. In fact, I’ll lay down a marker and say that Harris will win the under $30,000 voter and perhaps the $30,000-$50,000 voter, but that Trump will win all of the remaining brackets……

    JVW (b301cc) — 11/6/2024 @ 10:03 am

    I’ll take your bet. According to the an exit poll conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of major news organizations, Harris won all income groups except one (one was in a virtual tie):

    Total family Income:

    <$30,000: Harris 51%, Trump 45%

    $30,000-$49,999: Harris 46% Trump 51%

    $50,000-$99,999: Harris 47% Trump 49%

    $100,000-$199,999: Harris 53% Trump 45%

    $200,000 or more: Harris 52% Trump 44%

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  128. How CNN’s 2024 exit poll compares to the 2016 and 2020 polls.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  129. I saw a lot of data, so this may be off, but abortion issue has a steady 10-12% impact on turnout. In Blue states climate change drove 7-8%. Racism polled around 5%
    Democrats in swing states are going to continue to use abortion rights, climate change and racism smears to drive turnout.
    Lawfare didn’t work for preventing the election of a convicted felon- I think lawfare was a big factor in why Trump was able to defeat Harris.

    Harris was/is poor candidate who had to carry brought the Biden Admin and her CA baggage for sure, but at the very least lawfare moved the needle enough to give Trump a heckuva chance at winning the popular vote. 100’s of millions of grifted $$$ down the drain
    Exit polls and post game interviews showed a lot of people reciting the litany: They tried to kill him twice, they went after his businesses, his money, his personal freedom, and they failed. GTFO
    Some were proud to be voting for a felon, and were willing to say so. First time Trump voters were dismissive and/or disdainful towards nevertrumps lawfare efforts.
    Now nevertrump has to double down and try to ruin even good Supreme Court picks [Alito and Thomas will likely retire in Trump’s term]

    The nevertrump lawfare losers will continue their cosplay as white knighted crusaders protecting their democracy, while continuing riff off of Hillary Clintons one note “Forward” slogan then double down by adding “all gas no brakes”
    Meanwhile Eugene Vindman, brother of/enabler of the snitching Vindman is about to get an office in the old broom closet next to the mens room where all the guys with irritable bowel hang out

    steveg (4d28b3)

  130. I don’t think Democrats will be nominating a woman candidate for a while.

    I am always forgetting that /sarc tag.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  131. In 2028, assuming the GOP nomination is worth anything, it will be Vance vs DeSantis vs Haley — unless it’s President Vance by then, in which case it will be a coronation.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  132. BTW, if the Popular Vote Compact was in effect, we’d all be waiting for whatever total California came up with.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  133. I’ll take your bet. According to the an exit poll conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of major news organizations, Harris won all income groups except one (one was in a virtual tie):

    No, this makes zero sense. As of right now, Donald Trump has just under 51% of the popular vote (and yes, final California numbers will lower that by a few tenths) and he will almost certainly finish somewhere around 50.5% or higher. Yet these exit polls only show him over 50% in the $30k-50k bracket, and there at just barely 51%. This simply does not comport with logic, and I doubt that the Edison Research group has done a great job with these polls. We will have to see if somebody else tried to figure out these numbers.

    JVW (b301cc)

  134. Yup… all of this:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/11/let-trumps-resounding-victory-be-the-end-of-lawfare/

    Let’s make a deal.

    Obviously, Biden is going to pardon his son, Hunter, who has been found guilty in two felony criminal cases involving federal gun and tax charges. Particularly on the latter, he is looking at a sentence of imprisonment. It had to be excruciating for the president to sit on his hands while his Justice Department — after trying mightily to make the cases against Hunter disappear — was forced by the electoral politics of 2024 to prosecute Hunter twice. The election is over now, and the president has no more concerns about damaging Vice President Kamala Harris’s failed bid for the White House. Biden is not going to allow his son to be sentenced to years in a penitentiary. What father would?

    Yet there’s a way he can get what he needs but still be remembered for a statesmanlike act. Biden can pardon President Trump. He can give Governor Kathy Hochul (D., N.Y.) the support she would need — against the blind rage of New York progressives — to pardon Trump from Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg’s preposterous prosecution, in which Trump may otherwise face imminent sentencing. And he can recommend that Georgia, too, expunge its indictment of the now-president-elect.

    Biden can pronounce lawfare an un-American failure that the public has emphatically rejected — not only returning Donald Trump to the White House but apparently doing so with a popular majority.

    This would not simply be an act of statesmanship. It would be an act of partisan self-interest.

    Democrats have also done profound damage to the legal system. The enduring effect of lawfare is not about Trump; it is about undermining the public perception that the legal system is fair and impartial. That perception, the faith that it projects the reality of justice, is the vital undergirding of the rule of law. Without it, America cannot prosper. Lawfare inexorably breeds two-tiered justice, which is no justice at all.

    Biden can go a long way toward repairing the damage to his party and the justice system. He can ratify the voters’ judgment that in the United States we must resolve our disputes in history’s greatest democratic political process, not in courtrooms rigged by partisan prosecutors and judges. And Biden can turn the reputational stain of pardoning his son into a bipartisan clemency package that calls on the nation to turn the page from the corrupting legacy of lawfare.

    whembly (477db6)

  135. Exit polls are only of election day voters, I think (which should favor Republican and also low income voters?) and have response bias, so tip against Republican inclined voters.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  136. So far the GOP has won five new seats in the House and lost two other seats, meaning that as of right now they are at plus-three in this House election cycle.

    JVW (b301cc)

  137. SPANKED. That is all.

    JRH (b05069)

  138. The AP VoteCast exit poll shows an income distribution slightly different than Edison Research (note the income ranges are different):

    Total family Income:

    <$25,000: Harris 50%, Trump 47%

    $25,000-$49,999: Harris 47% Trump 51%

    $50,000-$74,999: Harris 46% Trump 52%

    $75,000-$99,999: Harris 46% Trump 53%

    $100,000 or more: Harris 53% Trump 45%

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  139. With the increase in the House Republican caucus and a working Republican Senate majority of +2 or +3 (compared to pre-election projections of +1) and a presidential mandate; Congress should defer to Trump’s proposals as outlined during the campaign.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  140. Lawfare = Trump is above the law.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  141. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/6/2024 @ 11:33 am

    To unify the country.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  142. It’s now Trump’s America.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  143. Bad Political Take, from The View of course…

    Harris would’ve won “if we could regulate social media.”

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  144. The repudiation of fascistic lawfare is the most satisfying part of this. Nothing else comes close.

    joe (473786)

  145. (note the income ranges are different):

    Those numbers are interesting, and they do seem to track much more closely with what actual voting numbers are, but I would like to see the $250k and above category broken out a bit further. In fact, I would really like to see a separate category for anyone making more than $1 million.

    JVW (b301cc)

  146. @145

    Lawfare = Trump is above the law.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750) — 11/6/2024 @ 11:34 am

    No, more like:
    Lawfare = Trump was persecuted.

    whembly (477db6)

  147. 139 Whembly: I respect what you write. But this . . . The “Against Trump” crowd at NR have a solution do they? “Shake hands and make up?” Trump was legally knifed while The Media bayed for early trials and verdicts before the election. Gleefully speculated about his being tied up during the election. Draining his money. What would happen to him in jail. And now the “Against Trump” crowd, which opposed him all along, and like some sterile monk giving marriage advice, urges him to “forgive and forget,” and shake it all off.

    But who thinks that lawfare will stop if Trump renounces it? What about the next time the left is in power? Its all too delicious when it happens to a man with an R by his name.

    Aren’t the new rules “we can indict anyone who errored on a fiancial statement?” Or has classified docs at home? Even an opposing candidate? Why is it that Trump is now supposed to shake it all off? Of course, Rip will say “we’re bigger than that.” But what lesson do the users of lawfare learn? Nothing, that’s what.

    Back when special prosecutors were the rage, Dems employed then incessantly–till they were used against some Bill Clinton people, at which point the Dems agreed to let that statute expire.

    The desire to be normal does not mean that abnormal people who spent the last 4 years salivating about Trump being bankrupt and jailed agree with you: they may just be boding their time till they can do it again. And why not? What is their downside?

    Harcourt Fenton Mudd (0c349e)

  148. DOJ moving to wind down Trump criminal cases before he takes office

    Justice Department officials have been evaluating how to wind down the two federal criminal cases against President-elect Donald Trump before he takes office to comply with long-standing department policy that a sitting president can’t be prosecuted, two people familiar with the matter tell NBC News.
    ……….
    Now that Trump will become president again, DOJ officials see no room to pursue either criminal case against him — and no point in continuing to litigate them in the weeks before he takes office, the people said.
    ……….
    The sources said it will be up to (Special Counsel Jack) Smith to decide exactly how to unwind the charges and many questions remain unanswered. Could the prosecutions resume after Trump leaves office or would they be time-barred? What happens to the evidence? What about the two other defendants charged with helping Trump hide classified documents? Will the special counsel write a report, as special counsels usually do?

    The sources say all those issues require study and research.
    ………..
    Trump’s New York criminal case presents different challenges with a felony conviction and sentencing hearing scheduled for Nov. 26. The immediate goal of Trump’s legal team is to get that postponed indefinitely or otherwise dismissed.
    ………..

    I would expect that Jack Smith will resign before January 20, 2025 to deprieve Trump the pleasure of saying “Your fired!”

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  149. Lawfare = Trump is above the law.

    Let me know when Biden is charged for interfering with his son’s criminal cases. Or any number of Congressfolk who traded stocks on inside information.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  150. Lawfare = Trump is above the law.

    The talk on Trump’s prosecutions is that the American people have spoken, and find the charges unconvincing, or at least unimportant. Or do you argue that the voters were somehow unaware of these cases?

    Most people are able to balance multiple issues and make their decisions on that balance. I get it that some folks think that the issues THEY care about should override all others, but that’s why we have elections.

    For any number of reasons, I have been unable to vote for Trump in 6 elections. But that doesn’t mean I am going to spend my days in resentment.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  151. But who thinks that lawfare will stop if Trump renounces it?

    Well, it certainly will not if he leans into it. This whole “THEY STARTED IT!!1!!” crap only helps America’s enemies.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  152. Harris would’ve won “if we could regulate social media.”

    Trump would have won in a landslide if we could “regulate” the mainstream press.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  153. Let me know when Biden is charged for interfering with his son’s criminal cases.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 1:14 pm

    Anything is possible after 12 noon on January 20th, when Biden’s presidential immunity ends.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  154. One thing that’s clear: Abortion is an issue that people deal with separately from other matters. A lot of people voted for Trump while also voting to protect abortion access.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  155. https://virtualtout.com

    The Virtual Tout® issued its final forecast with the polls opening on the East Coast at 6 AM Eastern Standard Time, November 5, 2024:

    Republican: Trump/Vance (280)
    Democratic: Harris/Walz (258)
    That was our final forecast for the 2024 presidential election: Forecast.

    We were correct in predicting a Republican victory, but we underestimated the Electoral College vote total for the Republican ticket.

    On election day, 1.8 million shares were traded on contracts for the two major parties on the prediction market that we relied on for the 2024 presidential election (PredictIt).

    The 2024 election is over, and the winner is the prediction markets themselves, which have again proven to be more effective predictors of election outcomes than the polls and pundits….

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  156. @152

    139 Whembly: I respect what you write. But this . . . The “Against Trump” crowd at NR have a solution do they? “Shake hands and make up?”

    I am hoping that Bidens/Democrats recognize that “the other side gets to bat too” when Trump assumes office. If they do, they’re going to want to mitigate any “response” back and to do that, they’re going to have to make an effort that their lawfare tactic failed. They’re going to have to drop it, and make conciliatory outreach for the incoming President.

    However, knowing Democrats, they won’t do it. They’re going to dig their heels.

    Trump was legally knifed while The Media bayed for early trials and verdicts before the election. Gleefully speculated about his being tied up during the election. Draining his money. What would happen to him in jail. And now the “Against Trump” crowd, which opposed him all along, and like some sterile monk giving marriage advice, urges him to “forgive and forget,” and shake it all off.

    There is some merits to “move on dot org” here.

    I’d rather Trump unleashes is policies and reforms, than to spend his finite resources to incur any “pay back”.

    But who thinks that lawfare will stop if Trump renounces it? What about the next time the left is in power? Its all too delicious when it happens to a man with an R by his name.

    Lucky for you, I don’t think the lawfare people will stop. So they’re going to get their “medicine” force fed to them.

    Aren’t the new rules “we can indict anyone who errored on a fiancial statement?” Or has classified docs at home? Even an opposing candidate?

    Indeed. Yup.

    Why is it that Trump is now supposed to shake it all off? Of course, Rip will say “we’re bigger than that.” But what lesson do the users of lawfare learn? Nothing, that’s what.

    Trump being successful in implementing generational policies will be that “lesson”, imo.

    Hey, I’m for someone like Sidney Powell or Mike Davis being “tapped” as the Special Counsel (ala Jack Smith) and go ham against Trump’s political opponents.

    But, I also want lasting Right/Center-right policies to be implemented.

    I dunno if Trump can do both at the same time.

    Back when special prosecutors were the rage, Dems employed then incessantly–till they were used against some Bill Clinton people, at which point the Dems agreed to let that statute expire.

    Oh, I full expect the 11th Circuit to agree to Judge Cannon’s ruling that Jack Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional.

    The desire to be normal does not mean that abnormal people who spent the last 4 years salivating about Trump being bankrupt and jailed agree with you: they may just be boding their time till they can do it again. And why not? What is their downside?

    Harcourt Fenton Mudd (0c349e) — 11/6/2024 @ 12:59 pm

    They’re downside is that they don’t get their preferred policies advanced.

    To be sure, I’d be okay with the government being neutered to the degree that when the left takes over the government, they cannot do the same things to their political opponents.

    whembly (477db6)

  157. Anything is possible after 12 noon on January 20th, when Biden’s presidential immunity ends.

    But not his immunity for acts that occurred as President.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  158. Harris concession speech now.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  159. @155 Chuktan and Jack Smith did the evidence dump in order to influence the election. They made the voters their jury, and lost. Though don’t expect them to acknowledge it.

    lloyd (390934)

  160. @158

    Let me know when Biden is charged for interfering with his son’s criminal cases.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 1:14 pm

    Anything is possible after 12 noon on January 20th, when Biden’s presidential immunity ends.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/6/2024 @ 1:22 pm

    Hmmm…no…I still think Biden would get total immunity for that… as both the pardon power, and whether or not to continue prosecuting a case is a *core* function of the Presidency.

    We have to come to terms that whomever becomes President, there are unique powers/immunities/benefits that sitting/former Presidents enjoys, that regular Joe/Jane doesn’t not ever get.

    whembly (477db6)

  161. @159

    One thing that’s clear: Abortion is an issue that people deal with separately from other matters. A lot of people voted for Trump while also voting to protect abortion access.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 1:23 pm

    Yup.

    Consider my state of Missouri.

    Trump is +18.5!!!

    But passed an amendment to enshrine the right to abortion in state constitution (51.6% to 48.3%).

    I have issues about amendment referendum needing simply majority, but thems the rules. I expect it in the next election it’ll be updated to 15-22 weeks.

    But, still…

    whembly (477db6)

  162. @164

    @155 Chuktan and Jack Smith did the evidence dump in order to influence the election. They made the voters their jury, and lost. Though don’t expect them to acknowledge it.

    lloyd (390934) — 11/6/2024 @ 1:28 pm

    Very good point.

    whembly (477db6)

  163. One thing that’s clear: Abortion is an issue that people deal with separately from other matters. A lot of people voted for Trump while also voting to protect abortion access.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 1:23 pm

    I am cautiously optimistic that the new Trump Administration will use the Comstock Act as a means to restrict if not fully ban abortions, without the need for new legislation. For example, if the DOJ’s Office of Legal Counsel reversed or withdrew its opinion of December 2022, it would allow the Postal Service to ban

    [e]very article or thing designed, adapted, or intended for producing abortion,” as well as “[e]very article, instrument, substance, drug, medicine, or thing which is advertised or described in a manner calculated to lead another to use or apply it for producing abortion,” (and) to be “nonmailable matter” that the United States Postal Service (“USPS”) may not lawfully deliver.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  164. Hmmm…no…I still think Biden would get total immunity for that… as both the pardon power, and whether or not to continue prosecuting a case is a *core* function of the Presidency.

    I would agree, since there is nothing in the Constitution or law that prevents a President from directing the DOJ to investigate or not investigate someone; though Biden could be indicted for being the head of the Biden Crime Family™️.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  165. Lawfare = Trump is above the law.

    Jack Smith gave the game away today when he signaled he’ll be withdrawing the cases.

    This was never about enforcing the law and was always about preventing a 2nd Trump Term.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/11/06/g-s1-33021/trump-trials-jack-smith-election-2024

    SaveFarris (8940bf)

  166. Anarchist democrats repudiated. Defund the police popular with blacks and white progressive woman and nobody else. Latinx against open border that take their job. Economy great for donor class and professional class. Democrat party supports transgender sports and political correctness. elite media is loved by them and nobody else. Authoritarianism not anarchism is the way to go. I said before if we defund the police who will arrest trumpsters when we take over? Never trumpers what you going to do now besides count your money and stocks?

    asset (823c6b)

  167. Jack Smith gave the game away today when he signaled he’ll be withdrawing the cases.

    This was never about enforcing the law and was always about preventing a 2nd Trump Term.

    Smith and the DOJ have no choice, since longstanding DOJ policy is that a sitting President cannot be indicted.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  168. I am no fan of Lanny Davis, nor WJC. But this essay is an interesting read.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/11/06/the_morning_after_lessons_to_learn_not_to_learn__151907.html

    Simon Jester (ff9c91)

  169. Anything is possible after 12 noon on January 20th, when Biden’s presidential immunity ends.

    But not his immunity for acts that occurred as President.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 1:25 pm

    Biden is only immune (after he leaves office) from prosecution for any acts that are part of his “core” duties as President. But since there is no constitutional or statutory bar prohibiting the President from directing the Justice Department to take (or not take) actions, the only option is to impeach Biden for doing so.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  170. My point is that “Lawfare = Trump is above the law” is both partisan and unconvincing.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  171. I am cautiously optimistic that the new Trump Administration will use the Comstock Act

    I am cautiously optimistic that they will not, as they will be hip-deep in controversial actions for things they think are IMPORTANT, and abortion isn’t one of them. Argument: It requires principles.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  172. I am cautiously optimistic that the new Trump Administration will use the Comstock Act

    I am cautiously optimistic that they will not, as they will be hip-deep in controversial actions for things they think are IMPORTANT, and abortion isn’t one of them. Argument: It requires principles.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 4:21 pm

    When Trump came out against the six-week Florida abortion ban and hinted he might vote for Amendment 4, the pro-life organizations made it perfectly clear that their support depended on Trump changing his mind, and he flip flopped so fast (one day) it made Nikki Haley proud. His pro-life supporters do think it is IMPORTANT and they will want something practical for their support. According to the Edison Research exit poll, 82% of self-identified evangelicals voted for Trump, and they will want something to show for it.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  173. But Trump has no principles, so he won’t spend a dime of political capital on it. Illegal immigration will have first call.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  174. I imagine that Patterico has thoughts. I look forward to reading them.

    What a mess.

    Simon Jester (28f934)

  175. I am cautiously optimistic that the new Trump Administration will use the Comstock Act

    I am cautiously optimistic that they will not, as they will be hip-deep in controversial actions for things they think are IMPORTANT, and abortion isn’t one of them. Argument: It requires principles.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 4:21 pm

    I thought you supported enforcing existing laws.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  176. Smith and the DOJ have no choice, since longstanding DOJ policy is that a sitting President cannot be indicted.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/6/2024 @ 3:37 pm

    DOJ policy was to not interfere in an election 60 days before an election. They trashed that policy so don’t pretend they care.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  177. Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 1:14 pm

    Whatabout and bogus equivalency. Disappointing.

    Paul Montagu (7d8750)

  178. Paul Montagu (7d8750) — 11/6/2024 @ 7:05 pm

    The majority of American voters disagree.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  179. Whatabout and bogus equivalency. Disappointing.

    No, just not lining up with your focus. You hate Trump — I get that, and I’m not fond of him either. But this government is awash in corruption and trying to shove it all under a rug named “Trump” doesn’t work for me.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  180. I thought you supported enforcing existing laws.

    So many laws are being ignored. Where to start? The Comstock Act? Why not the Mann Act? Probably violated every 3 seconds.

    Abortion law was sent to the states and now you want to invoke an 150yo federal law, passed in a VERY different time, because you are unhappy with what the states are deciding?

    Grasping at straws, and pretty weak ones at that. There is no federal judge that would not laugh you out of court.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  181. Political Betting demonstrated the value — as a predictor — of British bettors. They favored the Loser, even after the surprising Iowa poll came out, though there was a sharp fall then.

    (I didn’t try to make a prediction this time, though I have had some success in the past.)

    Jim Miller (b55c44)

  182. But this government is awash in corruption and trying to shove it all under a rug named “Trump” doesn’t work for me.

    Like I said about bogus equivalencies. It’s as if y’all have a case of amnesia, that Trump wasn’t actually president for four years and doesn’t have an actual track record, doesn’t have an actual body of work, hasn’t corrupted just everything he’s touched.

    BTW, yes, Biden-Harris came up big losers a couple days ago, but the even bigger losers are the Bernie-AOC-Warren-Omar-Tlaib-Jayapal axis of liberal progressivism. The cultural component that won is a direct repudiation of their left-wingedness. Harris was close enough to that axis (or in it) that it burned her chances.

    Paul Montagu (09c1fe)

  183. @190 “They favored the Loser”

    They favored Kamala? Don’t think so, Jim.

    lloyd (498ede)

  184. It’s as if y’all have a case of amnesia

    It’s as if you have a case of tunnel vision.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  185. What happened is that all those people who felt oppressed by the elites because they didn’t work in offices or have a profession saw Trump being attacked by the same elites and identified strongly with him.

    But don’t take my word for it, take theirs:

    He overcame seemingly fatal political vulnerabilities — four criminal indictments, three expensive lawsuits, conviction on 34 felony counts, endless reckless tangents in his speeches — and transformed at least some of them into distinct advantages.

    How he won in 2024 came down to one essential bet: that his grievances could meld with those of the MAGA movement, and then with the Republican Party, and then with more than half the country. His mug shot became a best-selling shirt. His criminal conviction inspired $100 million in donations in one day. The images of him bleeding after a failed assassination attempt became the symbol of what supporters saw as a campaign of destiny.

    “God spared my life for a reason,” he said at his victory speech early Wednesday, adding, “We are going to fulfill that mission together.”

    At times, Mr. Trump could be so crude and self-indulgent on the stump that aides wondered if he were engaged in an absurdist experiment to test how much aberrant behavior voters would tolerate.

    But Mr. Trump successfully harnessed the anger and frustration millions of Americans felt about some of the very institutions and systems he will soon control as the country’s 47th president. Voters unhappy with the nation’s direction turned him into a vessel for their rage.

    The elites cannot come to grips with how alienated they are from the country,” said Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, an informal adviser to the former and now future president.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  186. Re: Enforcing existing laws: The other day Trump and Vance came out against that – and they’ve never been really fir it.

    There was a pet squirrel, a pet for seven years, rescued from the wild (and also a raccoon) There was a website (really done to draw attention to an “Only Fans” site, from which the owner and his wife made money.

    Someone complained. There was a raid, the animals were seized (illegal to make a pet out of wildlife even thought the squirrel was tame and might die in the wild, and then they both were killed to check for rabies (state law) Possible claim that one of them bit a state raider.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  187. DOJ policy was to not interfere in an election 60 days before an election. They trashed that policy so don’t pretend they care.

    NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/6/2024 @ 5:58 pm

    Uh…no.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  188. Biden called Trump yesterday and invited him to the White House and Trump accepted. Biden schedule to give a speech at 11 am EST (delayed as usual)

    Harris called Trump privately and conceded and later gave a speech (said to better than he campaign speeches) at Howard University. Speech on a teleprompter.

    Said they shouldn’t think (all is lost)

    Speculation that she may run for Governor of California in 2026 after taking time if to make money.

    Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e)

  189. So many laws are being ignored. Where to start? The Comstock Act? Why not the Mann Act? Probably violated every 3 seconds.

    Abortion law was sent to the states and now you want to invoke an 150yo federal law, passed in a VERY different time, because you are unhappy with what the states are deciding?

    Grasping at straws, and pretty weak ones at that. There is no federal judge that would not laugh you out of court.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 9:39 pm

    Flashback:

    So, there is a law on the books but because they don’t prosecute everyone who violates it, they shouldn’t prosecute anyone? What a precedent that would make.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/20/2024 @ 7:39 pm

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  190. But Trump has no principles, so he won’t spend a dime of political capital on (enforcing the Comstock Act). Illegal immigration will have first call.

    Kevin M (a9545f) — 11/6/2024 @ 4:58 pm

    The government can walk, chew gum, and dribble a basketball at the same time. By not only winning the electoral but also the popular vote, Trump can do pretty much do anything he wants and still retain his base. He doesn’t need to worry about reelection, and in this instance he does need to worry about Congress-a Republican Congress isn’t going to hold Trump legislation hostage to enforcing the Comstock Act. The pro-life movement will want action beyond returning abortion laws to the states. As we have seen, it has had unintended consequences-despite returning abortion policies to the states, the number of abortions have actually increased.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  191. So, there is a law on the books but because they don’t prosecute everyone who violates it, they shouldn’t prosecute anyone? What a precedent that would make.

    The precedent is not enforcing moribund laws. You could close Las Vegas by rigorous enforcement of the Mann Act and that’s a LOT more relevant today than the Comstock Act which outlawed mailing condoms or even instructions for using them.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  192. RIP John Kinsel Sr, 107. One of the last Navajo code talkers.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  193. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dojs-60-day-rule-role-play-trump-trial/story?id=107789927

    Uhh, yes.

    When they lie to you Rip, it doesn’t behoove you to repeat the lie.

    NJRob (a56e4e)

  194. The pro-life movement will want action beyond returning abortion laws to the states.

    No we don’t. And you don’t either as you didn’t support him.

    NJRob (a56e4e)

  195. I miss Klink’s “stupid Hitler” rants.

    lloyd (4c9bd1)

  196. But how was the champagne, Doctor?

    Dr Arlene Battishill filmed herself earlier this week predicting a Democrat blowout – and roared with laughter at the memory of taunting a store clerk over his ‘wasted vote.’ But her gloating quickly went viral after Harris’ spectacular loss to Trump, with Battishill posting a subsequent video blaming racism and sexism for the result.

    ‘I was talking to the guy in the store asking him did she vote […] he asked me why I was getting the champagne and I said, “because I’m going to be toasting madam president tonight” and he kind of looked at me with a smirk on his face,’ Battishill explained.

    ‘I said, “you know she is going to win this right? The women of America are making their voices heard, reproductive rights is what it all comes down to.’

    She then started laughing manically as she recalled telling him, ‘you know you wasted your vote right?’.

    A chastened Battishill, who begs strangers to send her money on Cash App, is then seen the morning after in a clip captioned, ‘election hangover’.

    ‘So as you know, Kamala Harris did not win the election,’ she sighs, before explaining that less people got out to vote than in 2020. Battishill claims her modelling was wrong because she was not able to account for the impact of ‘racism and misogyny’.

    I thought Trump would lose, too. But taunting a store clerk wasn’t in my plans.

    lloyd (4c9bd1)

  197. No we don’t. And you don’t either as you didn’t support him.

    NJRob (a56e4e) — 11/7/2024 @ 12:26 pm

    Do you speak for Americans United for Life, Students for Life (“Abolish abortion”), Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America (“ SBA Pro-Life America exists to end abortion and the destruction of unborn human life.”) or the tens of thousands that attend the March for Life each year?

    I think not.

    Trump’s abortion position (“leave it to the states”) did nothing to stop abortions.

    Rip Murdock (c69a0b)

  198. The precedent is not enforcing moribund laws.

    Whether or not laws are “moribund” (in the eye of the beholder) is irrelevant; they are still on the books. I’m unaware of any Supreme Court ruling that says if a law isn’t enforced for X number of years it’s unconstitutional or unenforceable.

    Rip Murdock (c69a0b)

  199. The good news is the Washington Post has figured out how to lower the number of abortions

    Abstinence Only.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/11/07/what-is-4b-movement-usa-korea/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=wp_main

    SaveFarris (8940bf)

  200. Republicans gain 53rd Senate seat.

    Rip Murdock (c69a0b)

  201. Congratulations to Donald Trump. I hope America and the free world prospers during his term.

    My guess is the biggest domestic negatives will be for the legal system, which I think Trump wants to change drastically (and many agree with him), and for illegal immigrants already here who have tried to live decent, law-abiding lives.

    DRJ (cd9e8f)

  202. Regarding Trump’s three indictments, the laws that Trump broke don’t sound “moribund” to me. At all. Not his refusal to return classified materials, not his Fake Elector fraud, not his J6-related crimes.
    But two of the three will be dropped because of OLC rules.

    Paul Montagu (09c1fe)

  203. @210

    Republicans gain 53rd Senate seat.

    Rip Murdock (c69a0b) — 11/7/2024 @ 1:23 pm

    That’s a hella boon for Senate Republicans.

    As, it allows Lisa Murkowski or Susan Collins to vote ‘nay’ if it’s too problematic for their state.

    whembly (477db6)

  204. @204 You don’t speak for your “we”

    asset (7f0578)

  205. We will be busy on the left purging those who spent over a billion dollars being bought by the donor class for nothing. DNC were coming from YOU. Never trumpers are they opening the politically homeless shelters yet?

    asset (7f0578)

  206. We will be busy on the left purging those who spent over a billion dollars being bought by the donor class for nothing.

    How Stalinist comrade.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  207. Lisa Murkowski or Susan Collins vote ‘nay” irregardless. hey don’t play games like some Democrats.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  208. I’m unaware of any Supreme Court ruling that says if a law isn’t enforced for X number of years it’s unconstitutional or unenforceable.

    I guess you’d enforce all those adultery laws, too.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  209. The women of America are making their voices heard, reproductive rights is what it all comes down to.’

    As it turns out, “reproductive rights” may have moved the needle in state elections (???) but nationally it did very little. The voters seem to be less stupid than political consultants think they are.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  210. Oklahoma, Michigan, and Wisconsin criminalize adultery as a felony.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  211. nevertrump and the lawfare people were told “this is how you get more Trump” and now they got more Trump and are (of course) blaming the unwashed, uneducated White Female, the Black, White, Hispanic, Asian, Jewish, Arab voters- a group everyone in the know understands is prone to racisms, fascisms, misogynys, whitenesses, race traitorisms, and worst of all- pronoun failures- never mind nevertrump supported a lunatic who wanted to “let’s run the country like its California”

    Weird how nevertrump tore down everyone in the GOP who ran in the primary because they weren’t nevertrump enough- and now we have 100% Trump instead of Trump Lite. Total. Failure
    All that work and $$$ was spent over the last 4 years and the guy they turned into a felon wins the popular vote and the electoral vote
    Please stop. At this pace you guys will bring about the resurrection of Beelzebub for 2028.

    There is an old saying that I will adapt here for the lawfare wing of nevertrump- “when all you have is a hammer, you’ll try to turn everything into a nail” well, the highly educated top of class hammerers shanked the nails and hit Miss Liberty in the eye (Lady justice lost both eyes to these idiots centuries ago. That’s not a blindfold, its a bandage)

    steveg (4d28b3)

  212. Lets run the USA like California is an idea that Gavin Newsom picked up today during the unofficial launch of his 2028 run. Pritker jumped in and said-hold my beer(s) “No, let run it like Chicago” So both Newsom and Pritzker jumped in today for 2028 and I hope the fail is even more spectacular than the one Harris managed herself into

    steveg (4d28b3)

  213. Weird how nevertrump tore down everyone in the GOP who ran in the primary because they weren’t nevertrump enough…

    Maybe that’s a NeverTrump thing in CA, but I don’t associate with that whatsoever, or the rest of it.
    One, I was fine any other GOP candidate except Vivek, who was playing a Trump Mini Me.
    Two, I won’t apologize for saying that no one is above the law, because no one is above the law in these United States of America.
    Three, Trump won in a constitutional landslide. It is what it is. This is what this nation voted for, electing this guy with this established track record.

    Paul Montagu (09c1fe)

  214. I’m unaware of any Supreme Court ruling that says if a law isn’t enforced for X number of years it’s unconstitutional or unenforceable.

    There’s a pattern, from miscegenation to blue laws to sodomy, where resumed enforcement leads to a court case with DOES decide that.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  215. Dear Diary: Paul M is imperious to facts or reason, but clever enough to wiggle his way around many things: wrong as he is, I’d split a bottle of good red wine discussing things with him. He is intelligent and its a shame he in on that side.

    The Colonel, wherever HE is, is too one-sided to talk to for very long. But even as he called us all a nazi, I’d laugh it off as long as it wasn’t longer than 15 min.

    Rip is like the horse in 1984–in fact he IS the horse in 1984. Redoubling his efforts, faithful to rules followed by no one else, but a decent man. Like a kindly old college dean being shoved aside by the radicals, he’d still think Roberts rules of order apply. “It’s all we have” he’d say. A decent man.

    May the next few years be good to us all. And may we eat drink and be merry at expensive restaurants. Except for you Never Trumpers and David French. We did this without you, and whatever good comes from the next 4 will be despite your querulous reservations.

    Harcourt Fenton Mudd (9c8216)

  216. Acceptance is the key to happiness.

    Kevin M (a9545f)

  217. The Science Behind Derangement

    The editor of America’s oldest magazine launched an astonishing outburst against Republicans following Donald Trump’s electoral win this week. Laura Helmuth, the editor-in-chief of Scientific American, went on a rampage against Trump supporters in now-deleted posts on social media, calling them fascists, racists and sexists.

    ‘I apologize to younger voters that my Gen X is so full of f*****g fascists,’ Helmuth wrote on the social media site Bluesky.

    She also wrote: ‘Solidarity to everybody whose meanest, dumbest, most bigoted high-school classmates are celebrating early results because f**k them to the moon and back.’

    Helmuth then went after her own home state: ‘Every four years I remember why I left Indiana (where I grew up) and remember why I respect the people who stayed and are trying to make it less racist and sexist. ‘The moral arc of the universe isn’t going to bend itself.’

    Scientific American endorsed Kamala Harris for president in September, asking readers to vote Democrat ‘to support science, health and the environment.’

    The once-prestigious magazine made its first ever presidential endorsement for Joe Biden in 2020, with Helmuth and her staff accused of pushing a social justice agenda wherever possible. And on Wednesday, Helmuth suggested her staff were as distraught as her, writing: ‘Any advice on what workplaces can do to help people who are devastated by the election? Thanks so much.’

    Helmuth has since posted an apology for her ‘offensive and inappropriate’ posts, which she has deleted.

    Helmuth has previously gone viral for her ultra progressive posts, including a long thread where she scolded writers for using health terms such as ‘cancer’ metaphorically.

    She wrote: ‘We are pickled in ableism, and it pervades the English language. Avoid using health terms metaphorically, even if they aren’t used that much in health care anymore. That includes lame, crippled, blind, deaf, feeble, demented, crazy, schizophrenic, etc.

    ‘Unless you are writing about cancer, do not use the word “cancer.” Or tumor, malignant, or metastasize. Everybody has, has had, or knows someone who has, had, or died of cancer. Find a different metaphor to avoid sending your audience’s minds to an awful place.’

    lloyd (dec7b6)

  218. The never trump grifters are already out in force asking for donations. Establishment democrat party hacks are trying to blame the left for their malfeasance of running a senile old fool for a second term. Bernie and the squad were not part of the administration and unfortunately supported these grifters so they didn’t get blamed for this debacle of whats good for the donor class is good for everybody.

    asset (a27e69)

  219. Harris told to appeal to neo-con never trumpers like liz cheney by consultants brought in and paid by donor class. Donor class calls left base of party pro-hamas and no money if you don’t support war in gaza. This worked so well that kamala harris so far has got 4% where biden got 5% in 2020. (TYT network) The consultants pocket 15% of over a billion dollars so who cares if she lost as long as the donor class keeps sending the $$$.

    asset (a27e69)

  220. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dojs-60-day-rule-role-play-trump-trial/story?id=107789927

    Uhh, yes.

    When they lie to you Rip, it doesn’t behoove you to repeat the lie.

    NJRob (a56e4e) — 11/7/2024 @ 12:22 pm

    Once again, you don’t appear to have read your own link. It makes clear that DOJ policy prohibits investigation and indictment, not prosecution. And that’s as it must be. DOJ control over the process ends at indictment. Once the indictment is brought, control over scheduling the remainder of the process belongs to the judiciary, not the executive. It’s out of DOJ’s hands.

    lurker (c23034)

  221. Lurker

    you obviously didn’t read it. It had multiple quotes that it was not an “on the books” policy, but one that was very much enforced from the top down and was broken to get Trump.

    Enjoy the next 4 years. You’ll benefit from the voters decision and complain all the way.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  222. Since Kamala and the left were trying to expand the Supreme Court to 12 Justices, should Trump just give them what they want?

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  223. Please quote where it says the DOJ has any post-indictment authority over the scheduling of a trial.

    lurker (c23034)

  224. I don’t see much sense in doom posting. Trump won with no asterisk. The blessing is that we will not be hearing about voting fraud this cycle. There is a definite group of twitter left who are hinting dark things. Fortunately, Biden and Harris have ignored them.

    My concerns remain concerns. The best case for me is that Trump/Vance breaks a lot of promises. It does look like RFK Jr might be getting a demonstration of Trump loyalty, and I am extremely ok with that.

    My crystal ball is more useful as a bowling ball, so I have retired it for now.

    Appalled (8fa6e2)

Leave a Reply


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.1443 secs.