Patterico's Pontifications

9/16/2024

Constitutional Vanguard: David French Is Voting for Kamala Harris. Is He Right?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:00 am



I’ve been working on this post for weeks. By the way: the answer is yes. He’s right.

I’ll give my usual defense for the long time in between posts: this one is long. It’s about 9,000 words for free, discussing Jonah Goldberg’s attacks on David French’s New York Times piece explaining why he will vote for Kamala Harris. Then we have another 9,000 words for paid subscribers, on the issue of the great Bulwark/Dispatch Twitter feud between Steve Hayes and Sarah Longwell.

I want to introduce this post with an important passage from my Substack about my admiration for Steve Hayes and Jonah Goldberg:

I think it’s important for me to say something up front. I admire Jonah Goldberg and Steve Hayes (whose views I also criticize in this newsletter). I am going to take them on in this newsletter vigorously—and I am going to argue that their arguments about how people should view this election do not match up to the danger that Donald Trump poses. Before I do, I think it’s important to acknowledge that both of these men have been very vocal, for years, about Donald Trump and the threat he poses. They have spoken out despite knowing that their words would harm their income, their opportunities in conservative punditry, and even friendships.

I still remember the day I decided to subscribe to The Dispatch. I was reading a tweet from Goldberg talking about how he and Steve Hayes had decided to quit Fox News because they were offended at Tucker Carlson’s documentary about January 6, which was packed with lies. As I remember it, Goldberg emphasized that he and Steve Hayes had given up a lot of opportunities and had lost friends as a result of taking a stand against Trump and Trumpism. But they believed it was worth it to say what they believed. I thought a publication put out by people like that deserved my support. I still think I was right.

Even though I will argue in this piece that these folks’ arguments about the election have blind spots and are at times incoherent, I want to make sure that anyone reading this understands the context for my remarks. It is because I respect these men that I am pushing back against some of their current arguments. I hope my pushback, while vigorous, is accepted as fair, and as a constructive addition to the dialogue. That is the way I intend this piece to be seen, and I hope it is seen that way.

From the free portion of the newsletter, on Jonah Goldberg’s attack on David French for saying he is voting for Kamala Harris:

Let’s review two of Goldberg’s arguments that disturbed me the most:

  • David French should not tell the world he is voting for Harris because that will open him up to stupid people saying “you asked for it” when Harris does bad things.
  • As a conservative columnist, if you want to persuade conservatives not to vote for Trump, it’s best not to say you’re voting for Harris, because that will alienate conservatives and they won’t listen to you.

Both of these arguments boil down to this:

Do not say something you believe in, because your audience will react poorly to it.

I am disappointed by these arguments. You have to think about how your audience will react to what you say, of course. But you should never let it keep you from saying what you believe.

I was going to give a quote from the paid portion too, but the dog diarrheaed on the floor last night because somebody did not let them out, and then stepped in it and ran all over the house. So I’ll just say: read it here and subscribe here.

91 Responses to “Constitutional Vanguard: David French Is Voting for Kamala Harris. Is He Right?”

  1. I think it is important to also say that one is voting for Trump’s opponent rather than favoring Harris in her own right. There is a lot to dislike about Kamala Harris, just not enough to prefer Donald Trump.

    Kevin M (04a773)

  2. The problem, as always, is the idiotic system that allowed this to happen, on both sides. It’s so depressing.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  3. As far as MAGA is concerned, I try to differentiate the policies from the personalities. There are many good reasons to move away from Reagan’s 1980 positions — it’s not 1980 anymore being a big one, unintended consequences being another — but there are no good reasons to support Donald Trump, his lies, his ignorance and his lazy, random and thoughtless leadership. Were Trump to step down and some other, less crazed, person assume the mantle I would have to rethink my position.

    Kevin M (04a773)

  4. The problem, as always, is the idiotic system that allowed this to happen, on both sides. It’s so depressing

    We used to have political parties, run by party politicians. Now we have party labels, assigned by ad hoc collections of voters. I’d like to see delegates chosen by state parties, not primaries. Primaries are useful even if they don’t choose the delegates; the party pols will ignore them at their peril.

    Kevin M (04a773)

  5. > Were Trump to step down and some other, less crazed, person assume the mantle I would have to rethink my position.

    How would you feel if Trump stepped down and let Vance run?

    aphrael (2b6177)

  6. My basic problem with voting FOR Harris is this: Long before she is inaugurated, she will point to her huge win and say, “I have a mandate for Progressive policies!”, and others in her party will say “SEE! We told you that people wanted a real Progressive, not some shambolic 1970’s octogenarian moderate!”

    And it will be widely reported that the nation has turned to the Left and those price controls, housing subsidies and higher taxes will be along shortly.

    When the truth is that it was a rejection of Trump alone.

    Kevin M (04a773)

  7. How would you feel if Trump stepped down and let Vance run?

    I would feel better. Not great, but better. Vance is not a fool, is not ignorant and is not lazy. He would not cut off funds to Ukraine for petty reasons (although he might cut them off). I find Vance a mystery; the persona that we see on the MAGA campaign trail does not match his history. The man who talked about cats being eaten is not the guy who wrong Hillbilly Elegy or won that extremely eligible woman as his wife.

    Kevin M (04a773)

  8. * wrong wrote

    Kevin M (04a773)

  9. Shorter: I have far more misgivings about Harris than you do, aphrael. I agree with you about her terrible position on incarceration for profit, but I find many things you probably like as equally wrong. Given the lack of Trump’s woeful unfitness for office, I’d probably vote for Vance and hope for the best.

    Kevin M (04a773)

  10. That’s a fair response, Kevin. Thank you. 🙂

    aphrael (9c2ac5)

  11. I voted for DeSantis in the primary. I think he could get more votes from the center and bring in the never Trump vote on the right. I lived through 4 years of Trump. I think the fear mongering of Trump is over the top. I fear 4 years of Harris a lot more than 4 more years of Trump. The progressive policies of Harris and a fear she’ll be weak with Iran and Hamas is too much for me.

    Mattsky (7f7c5b)

  12. One, I respect the positions and conservatives on both sides of the issue, be it for Kamala or protest vote. It’s important to acknowledge that both sides share this common ground: Trump must lose.

    Two, The Skiff podcast of the Goldberg-French debate was the kind of conversation I only wish could be had, agree or disagree with either party.

    Three, in WA State, Harris is up by 21.

    Four, yeah, Dan McLaughlin. I stopped following him for a few years ago because of the hyperpartisanship and his mean-spirited tweet about the death of Biden’s dog, but he’s out of my doghouse now.

    Five, the branding and audience share arguments are irrelevant to me. The main aspect where I agree with Goldberg is that we are sending certain messages with our vote. In a battleground state, I’d be more binary about it, but I have the luxury of not being binary. I can communicate that I reject Trump and don’t support the Democrat nominee (for me, on policy and the manner in how she was nominated) by writing in a traditional conservative like Liz Cheney (who’s my top choice for now), which tells folks who and what I’m truly for. In WA State, Harris wins regardless, no harm no foul. If Harris wins, we won’t know until we see the exit polls as to how many Harris votes were for her or against Trump. That also sends a message but as clearly as a protest vote.

    P.S. I’m sure I missed a few things, because I skimmed the 18k words.

    Paul Montagu (062117)

  13. …but not as clearly as a protest vote.

    Paul Montagu (062117)

  14. In some states (e.g. California) write-in votes are not tabulated for candidates that have not filed a declaration of candidacy with the SecState. So, writing in Liz Cheney might not have the effect you want if you live in such a state.

    Kevin M (95e0ed)

  15. If Harris wins, we won’t know until we see the exit polls as to how many Harris votes were for her or against Trump.

    Assuming the MSM exit-pollers have that question on their list.

    Kevin M (95e0ed)

  16. @5

    > Were Trump to step down and some other, less crazed, person assume the mantle I would have to rethink my position.

    How would you feel if Trump stepped down and let Vance run?

    aphrael (2b6177) — 9/16/2024 @ 9:06 am

    That would be amazing….but, never gunna happen.

    whembly (477db6)

  17. Unlike French, I don’t think I get to talk away the stink that gets on me because of my choices. (I still try to though.) It’s why God invented the choice of abstention from every form of evil.

    steveg (16bb0f)

  18. In some states (e.g. California) write-in votes are not tabulated for candidates that have not filed a declaration of candidacy with the SecState. So, writing in Liz Cheney might not have the effect you want if you live in such a state.

    Kevin M (95e0ed) — 9/16/2024 @ 10:48 am

    Whether it’s tabulated or not isn’t the point. It’s personal performance art. It would be like voting for Haley for president. It makes one feel good, but that’s about it.

    Rip Murdock (fc3b85)

  19. It’s a Goering vs Lenin election, and boy that Goering guy is repulsive.

    Kevin M (8a1df4)

  20. Whether it’s tabulated or not isn’t the point

    If it isn’t tabulated, it tells no one anything.

    Kevin M (8a1df4)

  21. > In some states (e.g. California) write-in votes are not tabulated for candidates that have not filed a declaration of candidacy with the SecState

    I’m pretty sure this is the default rule in most jurisdictions; it’s intended to prevent _Mickey Mouse_ from showing up as having a substantial number of votes (or, in a small local race, winning).

    If your point is personal performance art, this doesn’t matter, but if the point is to make people notice how many people hate Trump but don’t support Harris, then you need the vote to be *counted* and *show up in statistics somehow*.

    aphrael (d08329)

  22. If it isn’t tabulated, it tells no one anything.

    Kevin M (8a1df4) — 9/16/2024 @ 12:42 pm

    As I said, it’s personal performance art, done just to make one feel good.

    Rip Murdock (fc3b85)

  23. Kevin M (95e0ed) — 9/16/2024 @ 10:48 am

    In some states (e.g. California) write-in votes are not tabulated for candidates that have not filed a declaration of candidacy with the SecState. So, writing in Liz Cheney might not have the effect you want if you live in such a state

    Its worse when it comes to voting for president in a general election because there what you are actually voting for is electors.

    Tis year, in the New York State primary – even for the primary – I was not able to cast a write-in vote. I used the BMD – Ballot Marking Device – which permits very legible write-ins, but doesn’t permit a write-in vote in races where you can’t cast a write in vote.

    I was just too dissatisfied with the alternative choices (even in theory)

    I finally voted for Biden.

    Tis year in the general election the only valid thing New York State voters will be able to do is vote for Trump or Harris (albeit with a choice of multiple ballot lines for both) or skip the race.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  24. The problem, as always, is the idiotic system that allowed this to happen, on both sides. It’s so depressing

    This was the year for a good third party candidate, but the impediments have grown even greater.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  25. On NATO, he wouldn’t defend countries unless they paid their bills.

    Ha! If that is the standard, no one has to vote for him because he doesn’t pay his bills.

    DRJ (329d27)

  26. I think the part with Matt Lewis is perhaps the most telling part: that the focus is not on maintaining influence with the conservative movement, but specifically about the Republican Party. That’s the mistake being made by Lewis and Goldberg: they think that the GOP can be restored. The GOP has been taken over by MAGA and Trump, and actual conservatives of principle will not be welcome.

    American conservatives need a new conservative party.

    Sam G (3626e6)

  27. It’s hard to argue with anything in that Substack. I share the observations and have the same unanswered questions.

    lurker (c23034)

  28. As I said, it’s personal performance art, done just to make one feel good.

    This is typical of you Rip. A person says they are voting for an actual conservative to make a point. I say it probably won’t be counted. Then you chime in saying the first person was just acting out, when in fact they said just the opposite. It gets tiring.

    Kevin M (48080c)

  29. This was the year for a good third party candidate, but the impediments have grown even greater.

    The main impediment was a ship of fools called “No Labels” which pretended like they were actually trying but really were just a front for Biden.

    Kevin M (48080c)

  30. The really sad outcome of this election is it won’t matter to Ukraine, which will bleed out before the end of the year. Biden never had any intention of them winning; he just wanted to make it Pyrrhic for Russia.

    Kevin M (48080c)

  31. My basic problem with voting FOR Harris is this: Long before she is inaugurated, she will point to her huge win and say, “I have a mandate for Progressive policies!”, and others in her party will say “SEE! We told you that people wanted a real Progressive, not some shambolic 1970’s octogenarian moderate!”

    And it will be widely reported that the nation has turned to the Left and those price controls, housing subsidies and higher taxes will be along shortly.

    When the truth is that it was a rejection of Trump alone.

    Kevin M (04a773) — 9/16/2024 @ 9:29 am

    Rejection of Trump alone is enough for me. Price controls, housing subsidies, and higher taxes all require Congressional approval, a highly unlikely scenario as it appears that the Republicans will at least control the Senate.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  32. Only politician that I ever saw show remorse for the idea that their words might have contributed to someone’s decision to commit an act of violence was Bernie Sanders after that nut shot scalise.

    The transcript doesn’t do it justice. If you watch you can see him struggle with it.

    Other then that it’s most a stick ppl use to wack the other side.

    Time123 (c8a480)

  33. As I said, it’s personal performance art, done just to make one feel good.

    This is typical of you Rip. A person says they are voting for an actual conservative to make a point. I say it probably won’t be counted. Then you chime in saying the first person was just acting out, when in fact they said just the opposite. It gets tiring.

    Kevin M (48080c) — 9/16/2024 @ 11:17 pm

    Voting for someone who hasn’t submitted a slate of electors to the state and won’t officially appear on the ballot is tilting at windmills; I’m not sure how you could characterize it any other way. It may be a principled vote, but only you will know, since it won’t appear in the official tallies.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  34. The really sad outcome of this election is it won’t matter to Ukraine, which will bleed out before the end of the year. Biden never had any intention of them winning; he just wanted to make it Pyrrhic for Russia.

    Kevin M (48080c) — 9/16/2024 @ 11:22 pm

    The really sad thing is that most Americans won’t care.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  35. Whembly, up thread you asked why ppl hold Trump accountable for his words contributing to the violence on J6.

    One of the factors that matters to me is specifics.

    “ Grab that person because they’re about to harm that child in the hat right now by pushing them off a bridge”

    Vs.

    “That person is a menace what will kill babies due to their support of abortion.”

    The former is a specific threat someone could (arguably should!) take action on to prevent a clear and present harm. The other is a statement of a potential future harm.

    So going back to Trump “Democrats are going to steal the 2024 election by importing illegal voters” is a vague claim of potential future harm. No clear and present harm and many legal ways to affect the outcome.

    “You need to march on the capital to stop the democracts from certifying this election because it was determine by fraud and once it’s done it can’t be undone. Is a specific present harm and call for action to prevent it.

    So Trump/Harris is a fascist/communists and will destroy our democracy/country and must be stopped is hyperbolic rhetoric that I would like to see less of. But it’s rhetoric and not a call for specific action that needs to be taken now.

    Also, I freely admit that 10 years ago I thought that this kind of Rhetoric was responsible for ppls actions. But over and over again when you look at the shooter you see that as Buduh has been saying, it’s them. They’re responsible, and usually nuts.

    I will say that when the shooter is motivated by some noxious idea, such as white supremacy, ethno-nationalism, resentment at women, resentment at society for not accepting them etc. and those ideas are shared by or adjacent to ideas being espoused by various leaders it’s worth asking those leaders to speak about the issue and to consider if what they’re saying and championing has a negative impact.

    Time123 (c8a480)

  36. Rejection of Trump alone is enough for me. Price controls, housing subsidies, and higher taxes all require Congressional approval

    The same thing was said about Vaccine Mandates, Student/Medical Loan Forgiveness, Border Security, Treaty Signings.

    And yet…

    SaveFarris (79ab12)

  37. We still have the worst part of Obamacare on the books.

    whembly (477db6)

  38. Price controls, housing subsidies, and higher taxes all require Congressional approval

    The same thing was said about Vaccine Mandates, Student/Medical Loan Forgiveness, Border Security, Treaty Signings.

    And yet…

    SaveFarris (79ab12) — 9/17/2024 @ 10:42 am

    That’s on Congress for failing to do its job.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  39. We still have the worst part of Obamacare on the books.

    whembly (477db6) — 9/17/2024 @ 11:28 am

    Trump does have a concept of a plan.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  40. @35

    “You need to march on the capital to stop the democracts from certifying this election because it was determine by fraud and once it’s done it can’t be undone. Is a specific present harm and call for action to prevent it.

    Time123 (c8a480) — 9/17/2024 @ 9:48 am

    Time.

    You are wrong.

    Trump didn’t “send” the mob to stop Congress.

    He asked them to march “peacefully and patriotically” at his speech to make their voices heard. (if I remember the timeline right, the riot pretty much started while he was still speaking, or right at the end)

    That’s called “protesting”.

    Which, and it isn’t hard to point out, is protected by the 1st Amendment of the constitution. Even if what their protesting is wrong, they’re still free to do so.

    There’s no specificity to Trump’ speech for the crowd to overtake and stop Congress.

    So, your overall analysis is flawed, because you’re taking a false premise that you believe as true (that Trump told the crowed to march “on the capital to stop the democracts from certifying this election”) and working your way backwards to justify your claims.

    I firmly believe you hold a certain animus of Trump, even before J6. As such, it’s an exercise of confirmation bias to think the worst of Trump.

    whembly (477db6)

  41. @39

    Trump does have a concept of a plan.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 9/17/2024 @ 11:33 am

    Vaporware.

    The change must come from Congress, with potus’ approval. Not the other way around.

    whembly (477db6)

  42. We still have the worst part of Obamacare on the books.

    whembly (477db6) — 9/17/2024 @ 11:28 am

    Trump’s response at the debate (“I have concepts of a plan. I’m not president right now. But if we come up with something I would only change it if we come up with something better and less expensive”) is a non-sequitur. You don’t need to be in government to come up with a proposal. There are plenty of think tanks that offer policy ideas that offer policy ideas on health care. However, Republicans as a party have been unable to articulate an alternative.

    So far the only new health care policy idea from the Trump campaign is proposing another mandate to provide free IVF services, either funded by the government or insurance companies.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  43. The change must come from Congress, with potus’ approval. Not the other way around.

    whembly (477db6) — 9/17/2024 @ 11:37 am

    Trump can articulate a vision of what he would like to see, but as I noted above, so far his only idea is another mandate. If a President just sat around waiting for Congress to do something, nothing would get done.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  44. As the saying goes, the President proposes; the Congress disposes.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  45. a highly unlikely scenario as it appears that the Republicans will at least control the Senate.

    Reagan got all his programs through a Democrat House. And the odds of keeping the Senate are not all that high. The GOP needs to win all three of MT, TX and FL and all are within the margin of error.

    Kevin M (75ee5f)

  46. We still have the worst part of Obamacare on the books.

    Which is the worst part, and what personal experience do you have with that program to form an opinion?

    Kevin M (75ee5f)

  47. One of the most annoying arguments of scoundrels is this:

    “Don’t worry about it passing today, it will never get through [some later stage].” In actuality, they are just trying to get you to stop fighting it today, knowing htat it probably WILL get through that later stage but it needs to get past HERE first.

    Kevin M (75ee5f)

  48. @46

    We still have the worst part of Obamacare on the books.

    Which is the worst part,

    The expanded mandate for what, at minimum, insurances must cover. If we can’t ever get rid of it, I’d rather we’d just go full socialist and the US government takes it over, ala Canada.

    and what personal experience do you have with that program to form an opinion?

    Kevin M (75ee5f) — 9/17/2024 @ 11:59 am

    The absolutely absurd price increases.

    whembly (477db6)

  49. Reagan got all his programs through a Democrat House.

    So what? A completely different political era.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  50. @40

    Whembly,

    While Trump was speaking people marched on the capital and used violence to try and stop the same thing Trump was using fraud to try and stop. The same thing he was telling them needed to be stopped. The people who rioted have stated repeatedly, and in some cases under oath, that they believed they were doing what Trump wanted them to do. Maybe they were wrong and Trump just wanted them to help pressure Pence into helping him stop the lawful transfer of power and they went further than he’d hoped. But even if that’s the case there’s still valid reason to criticize him for how his words and actions contributed to events of that day.

    If you want to assert that the one had nothing to do with the other you’re free to do so, just as you’re free to assert that what he did in 2020 was standard and proper after losing an election.

    But you asked why people saw Trump’s speech on Jan 6 in a different light than other rhetoric. I’ve given you a rational answer.

    Time123 (316e2a)

  51. And the odds of keeping the Senate are not all that high. The GOP needs to win all three of MT, TX and FL and all are within the margin of error.

    The RCP averages in Texas, it’s Cruz +6; Montana it’s Sheehy +5; and in Florida Scott is +4. If Trump can’t pull the Republican candidates over the finish line in states where he is winning (Texas +7; Montana +17; and Florida +6), he isn’t trying hard enough.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  52. Which is the worst part (of Obamacare)

    The expanded mandate for what, at minimum, insurances must cover. If we can’t ever get rid of it, I’d rather we’d just go full socialist and the US government takes it over, ala Canada.

    And yet Trump’s only health care idea so far is to expand that mandate.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  53. Reagan got all his programs through a Democrat House.

    Kevin M (75ee5f) — 9/17/2024 @ 11:57 am

    Somehow I don’t see either a Republican led House or Senate being so accommodating.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  54. Speaking of Trump’s health care mandate, not everyone is on board:

    Senate Republicans blocked a bill that would provide legal protections for fertility treatments and mandate insurance coverage, despite GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump’s recent pledge to force insurance companies or the government to pay for them.

    Tuesday’s vote was 51 in favor and 44 opposed, with Republicans Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine joining with Democrats in support. Sen. JD Vance (R., Ohio), Trump’s running mate on the GOP ticket, didn’t vote. Sixty votes were required to advance the bill under the Senate’s longstanding filibuster rule.

    The legislation would establish a federal right to access in vitro fertilization and other assisted reproductive technology.
    …………
    Republicans dismissed the efforts as “show votes” designed to give Democrats new fodder for the campaign trail and not serious attempts to make law.
    ………..
    Broadly speaking, the Democratic-led bill that Republicans blocked Tuesday is similar to Trump’s proposal. The legislation would establish a right for patients to access fertility treatments and for doctors to provide them, thus protecting them against state laws that might restrict access to the procedure. It would also mandate that most private insurance companies cover IVF and other fertility care.
    ………..
    Both the Senate bill and Trump’s proposal have met with opposition from many antiabortion groups, who oppose common methods of IVF in which clinics create multiple embryos so that if one fails patients don’t have to completely restart the treatment cycle. Antiabortion groups say that leads to the unethical destruction or freezing of embryos.

    “IVF is so ethically fraught,” said Lila Rose, president of Live Action, an antiabortion group. “It’s treating human lives like commodities or property.”
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  55. @52

    The expanded mandate for what, at minimum, insurances must cover. If we can’t ever get rid of it, I’d rather we’d just go full socialist and the US government takes it over, ala Canada.

    And yet Trump’s only health care idea so far is to expand that mandate.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 9/17/2024 @ 1:25 pm

    Prime example as to why Obamacare shouldn’t have passed in the first place.

    It’s impossible to unwind, as it becomes a burrowed political football that both parties uses to advance their political agendas.

    whembly (477db6)

  56. Prime example as to why Obamacare shouldn’t have passed in the first place.

    It’s impossible to unwind, as it becomes a burrowed political football that both parties uses to advance their political agendas.

    whembly (477db6) — 9/17/2024 @ 1:43 pm

    Congressional Republicans have surrendered the field.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  57. Time123 (316e2a) — 9/17/2024 @ 1:08 pm

    While Trump was speaking people marched on the capital

    No, those were people who went directly to the Capitol and did not listen to his speech. You seem to be saying that people left before he finished is speech.

    This was the Internet promotion:

    http://web.archive.org/web/20210106005050/https://wildprotest.com

    and used violence to try and stop the same thing Trump was using fraud to try and stop. The same thing he was telling them needed to be stopped.

    But not the way he wanted to stop it. Trump required a vote in Congress to reject challenged Electoral votes.

    The people who stormed the Capitol may have been intending to stop the certification. But, had that happened, and that wasn’t likely since Congress could assemble somewhere else like the Mexican Senate did the other day – had the certification been stalled past noon on January 20, 2021, the only thing that would have done is that would have made House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Acting President.

    The United States is not like many Parliamentary systems where if a new government is not selected, the old one continues as a caretaker government. Preventing the certification of the election results would not have extended Donald Trump’s term of office by even one second.

    The people who rioted have stated repeatedly, and in some cases under oath, that they believed they were doing what Trump wanted them to do. Maybe they were wrong

    They weren’t just wrong. They were lied to.

    and Trump just wanted them to help pressure Pence into helping him stop the lawful transfer of power and they went further than he’d hoped.

    It was too late for that. He wanted them to pressure members of Congress to uphold the objections to the Electoral votes of Arizona [11] Georgia [16] Michigan [16] Nevada [6] Pennsylvania [20] and Wisconsin [10] thus (in the simplest scenario) changing a 232-306 loss into a 232-227 victory.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  58. Belated praise on your lengthy post, Patterico. Forget the law. You should be a professional writer.

    norcal (79f5f2)

  59. > You should be a professional writer.

    There’s no money in it.

    aphrael (9c2ac5)

  60. Trump was at least honest about health insurance in the debate (at least the way he ended it) : (he shouldn’t be criticized for this answer)

    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-trump-presidential-debate-transcript/story?id=113560542

    LINSEY DAVIS: I’m sorry, we’re going to move on, Vice President Harris. This is now your third time running for president. you have long vowed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare. You have failed to accomplish that. You now say you’re going to keep Obamacare. Quote, unless we can do something much better. Last month you said, quote, we’re working on it. So tonight, nine years after you first started running, do you have a plan and can you tell us what it is?

    FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Obamacare was lousy health care. Always was. It’s not very good today. And what I said, that if we come up with something, we are working on things, we’re going to do it and we’re going to replace it. But remember this. I inherited Obamacare because Democrats wouldn’t change it. They wouldn’t vote for it. They were unanimous. They wouldn’t vote to change it. If they would have done that, we would have had a much better plan than Obamacare. But the Democrats came up, they wouldn’t vote for it. I had a choice to make when I was president, do I save it and make it as good as it can be? Never going to be great. Or do I let it rot? And I felt I had an obligation, even though politically it would have been good to just let it rot and let it go away. I decided — and I told my people, the top people, and they’re very good people — I have a lot of good people in this — that administration. We read about the bad ones. We had some real bad ones too. And so do they. They have really bad ones. The difference is they don’t get rid of them. But let me just explain. I had a choice to make do I save it and make it as good as it can be or let it rot? And I saved it. I did the right thing. But it’s still never going to be great. And it’s too expensive for people. And what we will do is we’re looking at different plans. If we can come up with a plan that’s going to cost our people, our population less money and be better health care than Obamacare, then I would absolutely do it. But until then I’d run it as good as it can be run.

    LINSEY DAVIS: So just a yes or no, you still do not have a plan?

    FORMER PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I have concepts of a plan. I’m not president right now. But if we come up with something I would only change it if we come up with something better and less expensive. And there are concepts and options we have to do that. And you’ll be hearing about it in the not-too-distant future.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  61. Trump was at least honest about health insurance in the debate (at least the way he ended it) : (he shouldn’t be criticized for this answer)

    Yes he should. He’s promised to “repeal and replace” Obamacare when he was President, but he never proposed an alternative. As I said, there a numerous think tanks that can provide ideas to revamp the healthcare system, saying that “I’m not president right now” is a dodge.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  62. Trump should say like he did once) it’s much harder to devise a good plan than he thought.

    But he could compare it to a cure for a disease. he fact that you don’t have ne doesn’t mean that none can exist.

    IO just don’t think he’ll have one soon.

    But you could sure the uncertainty and have taxes pay for what is certain – for starters.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  63. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 9/17/2024 @ 3:52 pm

    “I’m not president right now” is a dodge.

    It just means that he didn’t pay any attention to it till now (and from the time he abandoned efforts to change the law.)

    At first he expected his Secretary of HHS to develop a plan. He was supposedly a expert on it as a member of the House.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  64. It just means that he didn’t pay any attention to it till now

    LOL!

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  65. The RCP averages in Texas, it’s Cruz +6; Montana it’s Sheehy +5; and in Florida Scott is +4.

    Those are trailing averages. The latest poll in FL is Scott + 1, from a pollster that had him at +7 before. The RCP TX average includes an old poll from a Republican group that had him at +10 in June. It’s closer to +4 and then there is this “Democrats build momentum in Texas Senate race”

    But new polling suggests the party is competitive in Texas, both on the presidential level and in the race between Cruz and Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred, fueling hopes that this could be the year the state finally trends in the party’s direction.

    “Anybody that says, ‘It just doesn’t happen in Texas’ — it doesn’t happen until it does,” pollster Brett Loyd said of the possibility Allred scores an upset in the Senate race.

    The contest between Cruz and Allred, whose entry last year shifted Cook Political Report’s rating of the Senate seat from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican, is one of a small handful that have emerged as unexpectedly competitive in the high-stakes fight for the Senate this fall.

    And Liz Cheney is down there telling #NeverTrump to vote for the Democrat.

    Kevin M (58d501)

  66. Also this from The Dispatch:

    The Texas Senate Race Is Too Close for Ted Cruz’s Comfort

    DALLAS—Shortly after 4 a.m. ET on September 14, Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, took to X to warn that Sen. Ted Cruz is in danger of losing a winnable race.

    “What the hell is wrong with the Senate race in Texas ? I think i know …and i think i know his name … time to get some real professionals in to save @tedcruz.” LaCivita’s next tweet called for Cruz to “fire Axiom”—the consulting firm run by longtime Cruz adviser Jeff Roe, who had served as chief strategist for the super PAC backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in his challenge to Trump in the Republican primary. LaCivita pointed to a just-released poll of likely voters from Texas Public Opinion Research showing Cruz leading Democratic Rep. Colin Allred by just 4 points among registered voters. That poll followed another earlier this month from Morning Consult showing Cruz leading Allred by 5 points among likely voters….

    Cruz’s relationship with Trump, and his willingness to do just about anything for the former president, were among the reasons former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney told voters she’d made a trip to Dallas on Monday to support Allred.

    In a discussion with Allred moderated by Dr. Kneeland Youngblood that lasted roughly an hour, Cheney offered a brutal critique of Cruz—one that was much harsher than the assessment provided by his actual opponent in the race.

    Cheney began by saying that she’d come to respect and admire Allred by working with him on energy issues during their time together in the House of Representatives. Allred repaid the compliment, telling the crowd that watching her operate in Republican leadership made him wish that she’d been a Democrat.

    Cheney explained her rationale for supporting Kamala Harris over Trump, despite many important policy differences, then zeroed in on Cruz.

    “I’ve known Ted Cruz for 20 years. And it’s been clear—everybody who knows Ted Cruz, and I’m sure most of you in this room know Ted Cruz, nobody thinks Ted Cruz is a man of great honor,” Cheney said, to loud laughter. “What Ted Cruz did after the 2020 election makes him clearly unfit for office. Ted Cruz, knowing—knowing that it was unconstitutional, knowing that Joe Biden had won the election, knowing that the election had been certified in every one of our states and that a legitimate slate of electors—that there were no contested slates of electors that were legitimate, knowing that, Ted Cruz put in place a proposal to reject many of those votes, to essentially reject the votes of millions of Americans, what would have been overturning the election. And he did that to please Donald Trump.”

    Kevin M (58d501)

  67. Good read. I have given up Twitter, but before I did so I had the impression that Jonah has been slowly slipping into anti-anti Trump territory. I was unaware of his recent comments about David French, but it looks like my impression was right, unfortunately. He’s slowly becoming the pod-person he warned us about.

    Thanks for keeping the faith, Pat!

    Amish (4eedee)

  68. And Liz Cheney is down there telling #NeverTrump to vote for the Democrat.

    I am telling people the same thing. If I still lived in Texas I would vote for Colin Allred.

    Patterico (a74e66)

  69. And Liz Cheney is down there telling #NeverTrump to vote for the Democrat.

    Kevin M (58d501) — 9/17/2024 @ 5:14 pm

    So what? I doubt there are enough #NeverTrump Texans that would switch to make a difference. Liz won’t convince anyone who hasn’t already made up their mind.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  70. Sammy, your precision and attention to detail is, as always, impressive. But I can’t see the forest for the trees in your comment. Do you think that Trump’s rhetoric in that speech contributed in a meaningful way to the violence that followed? If so do you feel that he bears some moral responsibility?

    I want to be clear that I’m speaking of moral responsibility and I’m not claiming that he committed criminal incitement. Even when an action is legal it can be worth criticizing and used to determine a persons fitness for elected office.

    Time123 (3647c2)

  71. Liz Cheney is a Nancy Pelosi uni-party Democrat.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  72. Rob, besides not liking Donald Trump and Ukraine, is there any policy Liz Cheney and Pelosi agree on?

    Nate (cfb326)

  73. @rip@49 I don’t think it was the era, I think it was the guy in this era. At the beginning of the Trump administration there was a lot of negotiation going on and Trump could’ve gotten significant things that he wanted, but he couldn’t get everything so he said no, even after his representatives had come to an agreement.

    Nic (120c94)

  74. Yes. They are both working to get Democrats elected throughout the nation .

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  75. saying that “I’m not president right now” is a dodge.

    And yet, saying “I’m just the Vice President right now” is not a dodge?!?

    Harris has even fewer details than Trump. How can you justify that on any level?

    SaveFarris (79ab12)

  76. NJRob has perfectly encapsulated his last remaining principle; “Trump Good, Democrats bad.” Past that nothing matters to him.

    Time123 (45b245)

  77. Time,

    which part of her working to get leftists elected to Congress do you not get? That has nothing to do with Trump and everything to do with the uniparty protecting their own.

    You know that so instead you throw lies out there and expect them to be treated as truths.

    Carry on with your lies.

    NJRob (3c1e10)

  78. Modern democrats are worse than modern republicans lead by Trump.

    That’s not to say that anything modern republicans, lead by Trump would be good.

    But, I feel strongly that giving democrats government control, particularly the Whitehouse, is an abject act of civic-disaster.

    Playing these cutesy games in hoping for a divided government is akin to playing russian roulette.

    It’s a shame that our politics as lead to the two cretins on both tickets. But the choice boils down to whether you want President Harris and her polices? Or President Trump that looks like his 1st term.

    Adulting is about making the choices you need to make. Not what you want to make.

    That’s why it’s about policies for me, and I cannot understand why a nominal-republican voters (rhymes with EverHumpers) would actually advocate to vote for democrats, knowing the kinds of policies they would push, that in a normal election, with normal candidates they’d be fighting tooth-in-nail against.

    I simply do not understand you people.

    The Whitehouse isn’t the American Idol election. These people are going to advance policies that has real impact in mainstreet, who cannot afford to let personal animus be the driver when looking at their own bank account.

    whembly (477db6)

  79. I simply do not understand you people.

    I believe that the most important thing a president needs to do is uphold and defend the constitution. So long as we have that bad policy can be fixed

    I believe based on evidence I’ve provided you that Trump will not defend and uphold the Constitution when doing so is contrary to his personal interests. I accept that you disagree with me, but would hope at this point that you can at least see my POV as a colorable argument.

    While I strongly dislike almost everything about Harris (her policies are bad, her character is weak, her experience is bad, her governing philosophy is bad) I don’t expect her to try to steal the office of the presidency if she loses the election and I’m not aware of any good evidence to indicate that she would do so.

    Because of this, she’s the least bad choice because she’s better at the most important duty of the president; Preserving our system of constitutional rule.

    Time123 (998ce5)

  80. Please note that when I say she’s “better” I don’t mean that she’s “good”

    Time123 (998ce5)

  81. @79

    I believe that the most important thing a president needs to do is uphold and defend the constitution. So long as we have that bad policy can be fixed

    Time123 (998ce5) — 9/18/2024 @ 8:52 am

    There isn’t a whole lot of that in the current Biden/Harris administration…

    whembly (477db6)

  82. I am telling people the same thing. If I still lived in Texas I would vote for Colin Allred.

    To tell the truth, I’d have a hard time voting for Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, or a few others.

    Kevin M (dde857)

  83. The point being, though, that this sanguine “The Senate will keep Harris in check” thing isn’t all that convincing.

    Kevin M (dde857)

  84. saying that “I’m not president right now” is a dodge.

    And yet, saying “I’m just the Vice President right now” is not a dodge?!?

    Harris has even fewer details than Trump. How can you justify that on any level?

    SaveFarris (79ab12) — 9/18/2024 @ 5:48 am

    Being “whataboutism”, I don’t need to justify Harris’s vagueness; that’s her problem.

    As I pointed out above, coming up with an alternative to Obamacare doesn’t require one to be President. The only significant change to Obamacare (aside from some regulatory adjustments) was to sign legislation repealing the individual mandate. During the first two years of his administration, both the Senate and House were under Republican control, yet Trump failed to persuade them to repeal Obamacare and replace it with an alternative.

    Trump has come up with one health care policy without being President; unfortunately it is an expansion of Obamacare rather than a replacement.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  85. In order to actually reform our healthcare system (as opposed to band-aids like Obamacare), you have to have something that improves things for people who now have employer-subsidized insurance. Obamacare worked only because it didn’t mess with the employer-based system and tossed all the terribleness onto the self-employed, who didn’t have the votes to matter.

    McCain’s old proposal to blow everything up and replace it with must-issue personal plans which companies or government could subsidize was a hard sell, but it at least offered the benefit of portability and continuation if one lost or changed jobs.

    And still, Medicare can’t be touched as old-age health care is EXPENSIVE and few elderly can afford it outright, so the (if you squint) pre-pay system is probably the fairest way to do that. And having paid all that money over the years, people have expectations that make radical change difficult.

    Kevin M (dde857)

  86. Nancy Pelosi surprised me by this visit.

    This month [August 2022], tensions in the Taiwan Strait reached levels not seen in nearly thirty years. In response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei, Beijing launched joint military exercises around the island and suspended or canceled eight official military dialogues and cooperation channels with the United States. Taiwan faced unprecedented provocations, including ballistic missile launches over the island, air and naval operations across the centerline and on the edge of Taiwan’s territorial waters, and a volume of cyber attacks “23 times higher than the previous daily record.”

    But it most likely didn’t surprise Liz Cheney, who knows Pelosi better than I do. And Cheney most likely approved of the visit, and Pelosi’s support for Taiwan, in general.

    Jim Miller (43dd4b)

  87. Which reminds me: Michael Hayden’s “Playing to the Edge” is quite good. If you are interested in strategies in the war on terror — which will be with us for the rest of my life, and probably the rest of your grandchildren’s life — you would benefit from reading this book.

    (I read it on my Kindle several years ago.)

    Jim Miller (43dd4b)

  88. The only significant change to Obamacare (aside from some regulatory adjustments) was to sign legislation repealing the individual mandate. During the first two years of his administration, both the Senate and House were under Republican control, yet Trump failed to persuade them to repeal Obamacare and replace it with an alternative.

    You can lay that one at the feet of McCain who, like you and our gracious host, let his anger and hatred of Trump override their conservative ideals. Re-elect Trump and he’ll bring the same bill. Which, with a Republican majority that doesn’t depend on a McCain, should pass.

    I also have a hard time buying the “Congress will keep Harris in check”, especially with our gracious host now openly advocating for the Dems to hold the Senate (via his Allred endorsement.)

    SaveFarris (79ab12)

  89. You can lay that one at the feet of McCain who, like you and our gracious host, let his anger and hatred of Trump override their conservative ideals. Re-elect Trump and he’ll bring the same bill. Which, with a Republican majority that doesn’t depend on a McCain, should pass.

    I also have a hard time buying the “Congress will keep Harris in check”, especially with our gracious host now openly advocating for the Dems to hold the Senate (via his Allred endorsement.)

    SaveFarris (79ab12) — 9/18/2024 @ 9:50 am

    Had Trump not treated McCain with such disdain it’s possible that the result may have been different.

    “He’s not a war hero, He was a war hero, because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured. He’s been losing so long he doesn’t know how to win anymore.”

    And McCain wasn’t the only Republican who voted “no”; Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins also voted no. As you may recall, the vote to repeal Obamacare didn’t include a replacement, it was a negotiating tactic.

    The “skinny repeal” was a pared-down version of Republican proposals to undo Obamacare with no plan for what to replace it with. It would have eliminated the individual and employer mandate and key taxes, defunded Planned Parenthood for a year and eliminated key protections of health benefits that were required under Obamacare.

    The bill was deeply unpopular, but GOP leaders worked to assure members it would never become law. Instead, they wanted the Senate to pass it in order to advance the legislation to a third round of negotiations with the House to try to craft a final bill both chambers could pass.

    I think you overestimate the influence of anything said on this forum to change what is going to happen.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  90. Time123 (3647c2) — 9/17/2024 @ 6:43 pm

    ` Sammy, your precision and attention to detail is, as always, impressive. But I can’t see the forest for the trees in your comment. Do you think that Trump’s rhetoric in that speech contributed in a meaningful way to the violence that followed?

    No. But it contributed to obscuring the responsibility for it. The people who organized the violence wanted to make it look like ordinary Trump supporters did it and they tried to get other people involved. It is not easy to quickly find a link to that.

    If so do you feel that he bears some moral responsibility?

    He bears some moral responsibility because he created the whole issue of the stolen election and the crucial vote in Congress, and it was without the slightest justification. He organized a totally unnecessary critical vote in Congress.

    When he abandoned his effort to continue in office, it all went away. I want to be clear that I’m speaking of moral esponsibility and I’m not claiming that he committed criminal incitement. Even when an action is legal it can be worth criticizing and used to determine a persons fitness for elected office.

    The speech was unimportant.

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

  91. Didn’t successfully separate the words after “it all went away”

    I think I did an end quote there rather than a begin quote.

    The speech was unimportant. It didn’t incite anything, but was useful to the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and the Three Percenters etc to deflect their responsibility for the planned riot..

    Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09)

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