Weekend Open Thread
[guest post by Dana]
Let’s go!
First news item
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday welcomed Sen. JD Vance’s (Ohio) position on U.S. military and economic support for Ukraine following former President Trump’s announcement he tapped the Ohio lawmaker as his running mate.
“He’s in favor of peace, he’s in favor of ending the assistance that’s being provided and we can only welcome that because that’s what we need — to stop pumping Ukraine full of weapons and then the war will end,” Lavrov said in a press conference Wednesday, according to a translation by Reuters.
When Russia welcomes a candidate to the world stage, you know you’ve got a problem. Especially when said candidate has already said that he doesn’t care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.
Sadly, there’s only one way the war will end if it’s a “quick end”:
Like Trump, his running mate has called for a quick end to the war — which Zelensky’s camp considers code for a demand that it cede territory to Russia, consigning Ukrainian citizens in occupied cities, towns and villages to a brutal fate.
Second news item
About Ukraine and the Trump/Vance ticket:
In February, Vance startled some attendees at the Munich Security Conference, a showcase gathering for the Western foreign policy establishment, by minimizing the Russian threat to Europe, and showing no interest in engaging with those who wanted to talk about why a Russian victory would be so dangerous.
Publicly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has telegraphed confidence his government can weather whatever storm might be approaching.
On Monday, he told reporters in Kyiv that “we will work together” with any U.S. leadership.
Third news item
A century ago, presidential candidates were made of something wholly different than today’s contenders. I suspect that voters’ had higher expectations of their presidents back then:
In addition, it was clear to voters by 1924 that Calvin Coolidge was a man of unimpeachable integrity. He was the embodiment of classic New England virtues: Honesty, thrift, lack of pretense, dignity, and common sense. The taint of the emerging Harding scandals left Coolidge unscathed.
. . .
While Davis was not well known among voters, he — like Coolidge — presented two defining attributes. He was from the conservative wing of the Democratic party, which had long championed Jeffersonian values of limited government. In addition to establishing an impressive record of accomplishment as a constitutional lawyer, Davis was seen as a man of deep integrity, who might bring unity to the fractured Democrats.
As columnist Walter Lippmann noted, “Davis’ nomination was the result of confidence in his character rather than of studied agreement with his views.”
Fourth news item
Parents are just that: parents. Schools are not that:
California Governor Gavin Newsom signed a law Monday prohibiting schools from informing parents when students change their pronouns in school. The Support Academic Futures and Educators for Today’s Youth (SAFETY) Act also imposes responsibilities on the State Department of Education to develop resources to “increase support for LGBTQ pupils.”
According to the California legislature’s LGBTQ caucus, the SAFETY Act is necessary to prevent school boards from outing the gender identity of students. In July 2023 several schools passed so-called “forced outing” policies, which required teachers to notify parents if their child identifies as transgender. The SAFETY Act bans that practice, standardizing the obligations of teachers across California. The bill enjoyed broad support from LGBTQ groups as well as the California Teachers Association, a large teachers union in the state.
As a result of the governors’s passage of the act, lawsuits have been filed:
California’s ban on “forced outings” of trans and non-binary students in schools is being challenged in court by a local school district with a policy requiring parents to be notified of changes in a student’s name or pronoun.
Since July 2023, several California school boards voted to pass policies requiring teachers to notify parents if their child identifies as transgender or changes the name or pronouns other than what aligns with the sex they were assigned at birth. The Chino Valley Unified School District is one of these districts to pass such a policy.
Chino Valley School District was sued in August 2023 by California Attorney General Rob Bonta for its enforcement of such policy.
Informing a parent of their child’s new gender identity should not be referred to as a “forced outing”. We are not talking about a public outing a student at a board meeting. We are talking about parents being informed about the mental health of their child, for whom they are responsible. Such manipulative language. But of course, that’s the point. Whether anyone likes the outcome of what parents do with the information should be beside the point. And it’s ridiculous to have to say this, but of course any sort of illegal acts of retribution against the child is a different matter altogether. But this should not negate the school’s responsibility to the parents. Additionally, if students are transitioning, do schools really think it’s wise to treat parents as the enemy? Wouldn’t it be in the child’s best interest to include the very people who love this kid like no other and have an emotional investment in them to a depth that the school never could? It’s ridiculous to think that a school could actually facilitate or deal with this huge change without the parents’ knowledge. Utter hubris.
Anyway, this:
The trans community [Ed. and pro-trans school districts] can’t have it both ways. That being trans is a health care issue that can cause suicide and that minors need health care access before puberty does lifelong damage. But also, it’s not of the parents’ business? These are two mutually exclusive attitudes…getting those kids psychological care is the higher priority.
Fifth news item
New Biden campaign email just now: "Joe Biden has made it more than clear: He’s in this race and he’s in it to win it. Moreover, he’s the presumptive nominee — there is no plan for an alternative nominee. In a few short weeks, Joe Biden will be the official nominee."
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) July 19, 2024
President Biden is “absolutely” staying in the presidential race, campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Friday, calling him the “best person to take on Donald Trump.” Her assessment comes amid growing calls from Democrats for Biden to step aside.
And then there is this political ad by the newly formed Pass the Torch group. It will begin running on the Morning Joe Show this coming Monday:
Sixth news item
Terrible but not unexpected news:
Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter falsely accused by Russian authorities of spying, was sentenced to 16 years in a high-security penal colony, after being wrongfully convicted in a hurried, secret trial that the U.S. government has condemned as a sham.
The court’s Friday verdict—after three days of hearings—was widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, since acquittals in Russian espionage trials are exceedingly rare. Gershkovich was afforded few of the protections normally accorded to defendants in the U.S. and other Western countries.
From Wall Street Journal publisher and editor in chief: This disgraceful, sham conviction comes after Evan has spent 478 days in prison, wrongfully detained, away from his family and friends, prevented from reporting, all for doing his job as a journalist.
Seventh news item
RIP to the stammering and hilarious master of deadpan comedy, Bob Newhart:
Postscript: A beautiful resignation letter from Ben Sasse, a man who clearly has his priorities in order:
Dear Gator Nation and cherished friends,
This isn’t an easy note to write but wanted to give you an update on our family. As many of you know, my wife Melissa suffered an aneurysm and series of strokes in 2007. Back then, the docs prepared us for the worst, but – in God’s providence – she made an incredible comeback. In the years since – from Nebraska to DC to Florida – she kept our family grounded while I missed too many family dinners, little league games, hugs, and tears. She’s the strongest person I know. We’ve battled some nasty seizures the last couple years, but she’s always remained a warrior.
In recent months, Melissa has been diagnosed with epilepsy and has been struggling with a new batch of memory issues. It’s been hard, but we’ve faced it together. A lot of late nights, a lot of hard decisions, and a lotta “what matters most?” conversations.
Our two wonderful daughters are in college, but our youngest is just turning 13. I’ve got two spectacular callings in life right now: First, I’m a husband and dad. Second, I’ve been blessed to serve as president of the best dang public university in America – Go Gators! – and I’ve loved the challenge of giving this university everything I’ve got. But here’s the bottom line: Those callings are significantly at odds with each other right now. Gator Nation needs a president who can keep charging hard, Melissa deserves a husband who can pull his weight, and my kids need a dad who can be home many more nights.
After extensive prayer and lots of family tears, I today asked UF Chair Mori Hosseini and our Board of Trustees to initiate a search for a new president of the university. I need to step back for a time and focus more on the needs of my family while we rebuild more stable household systems.
I’m going to remain involved in serving our UF students — past, present, and future — but I need to walk arm-in-arm with my dearest friend more hours of every week.
I’m grateful for our board’s support. Mori and the board have giant hearts – for this university and for this community. It’s easy to see why.
I’m grateful for you, Gator Nation. You’ve welcomed our family with open arms. Professors who change the world, students who pack the Swamp, men and women who do the unsung work of keeping a big place like this rolling (shout out to the third-shift maintenance crews, the early morning cafeteria workers, and the Ben Hill Griffin cleanup team). We love you. You touched our hearts and made this more than a job – you made it our community. That’s why we’re not going anywhere.
Our family is staying here in Gainesville. I’ll be here as President Emeritus and professor, continuing to teach classes.
It’s great to be a Florida Gator! … It’s even greater to be a husband and a dad.
Have a great weekend.
–Dana
Happy Friday!
Dana (b845bc) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:43 amTo take it to the next logical step, Trump-Vance picked the side of evil, being objectively pro-Putin and his terrorist regime.
There was an apparently RNC-produced sign at the convention, saying “End the Ukraine War”, which is a multi-layered lie, because it’s not The Ukraine War, it’s Putin’s War Against Ukraine, and the phraseology of the sign absolves Putin of any responsibility or involvement on his part for this war.
The Trump-Vance silence on Putin’s unprovoked, unlawful and unjustified invasion, their lack of condemnation of Putin’s tens of thousands of terrorist attacks, their failure to demand that Putin end his war–the war that he started in 2014 and has been unabated since that time–speaks volumes about their lack of morality and lack of respect for our NATO and EU allies and for Ukraine, which did absolutely nothing to “earn” this attempted conquest but for the “crime” of existing.
It may be time for me to leave this party. Too far gone, too unrecognizable. There is practically nothing of Reagan left in it.
Paul Montagu (1e8339) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:16 amYou have been so hopeful, Paul, that the GOP would return to common sense and the historic planks of the party. It just doesn’t appear that a sea change will happen anytime soon. You’ve been much more hopeful and optimistic that me, and that’s to your credit. But considering where we are now, what’s the point?
Dana (bd6b2c) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:24 am@2 “Trump-Vance picked the side of evil, being objectively pro-Putin and his terrorist regime.”
Glad we’re cooling the rhetoric.
lloyd (f7a9e3) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:32 amI’m a generally upbeat guy, Dana, but these past months of primaries and criminal trials and such have done a number. Vance was the worst of the top three choices, IMO, and of course Trump picked the worst.
A lot can happen between now and Election Day, but I’m taking stock.
Paul Montagu (1e8339) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:35 amWhat “rhetoric”? Trump-Vance picked a side, Putin is a terrorist, and is therefore evil. These are all true things.
Paul Montagu (1e8339) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:37 amJust stay in a State where your membership doesn’t matter when it comes to important votes. Probably simpler.
BuDuh (4753db) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:53 amBiden’s policy of attrition in Ukraine has run its course. Even if he is re-elected, support from the US Congress will be minimal and halting. There is a limit to what we will spend. The EU needs to reconsider the approach and decide as a nation, not as an American puppet, how far it is willing to go.
I would favor their direct intervention. The EU has 3 times the population and 10 times the GDP as Russia. It would be no contest and Putin would have to know that. He might be able to keep Crimea if he does so before too long, but the moment EU troops enter Ukraine, all bets are off.
I only wish that Biden had not been so slow to act and run out the clock. But he did, and we have nothing to show for $175 billion but a holding action. OF COURSE people are tired of this. Vietnam was run better.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:02 amIt may be time for me to leave this party.
I will do so when there is a better one. That is NOT the Democrat Party. Nor is it the LP. Being an independent just means I’ve surrendered any hope of agency.
In 2028 there will be another election. Vance, DeSantis and Haley are the obvious contenders, and Vance will only look as good as Trump’s administration. Or maybe there will be that other center-right party.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:06 amJohn W Davis may have had accomplishments, but his coming out of retirement to argue the segregationist side in Brown vs Board of Education puts a taint on all of them.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:11 amThat transgender law will have a direct impact on the economy of California. Elon Musk called it the last straw and is moving ALL of X and SpaceX to Texas as a result. This will gut what remains of the SoCal aerospace industry.
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/4775245-elon-musk-spacex-x-headquarters-california-texas/
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:15 amNew White House Doctor Sadly Informs Biden Only Cure For COVID Is Euthanasia
lloyd (6a13e1) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:15 amYou would think that Trump could get Evan out of Russia if he wanted.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:17 amBiden doesn’t have COVID. It’s just an excuse for resting up. Meanwhile the discussions continue. “Health reasons” may force him to bow out.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:19 amThe toupee skit without stretch-o-vision
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgubFLBCmMY
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:26 amWashington Post tweet:
lloyd (6a13e1) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:44 am@6 What “rhetoric”? Trump-Vance picked a side, Putin is a terrorist, and is therefore evil. These are all true things.
They picked the American side, as they see it, and as some see it. You disagree. Playground taunts are not an appeal to truth.
lloyd (f7a9e3) — 7/19/2024 @ 12:12 pmOne Trump more or less in the world is not worth giving up our freedom speech for, either.
nk (59b453) — 7/19/2024 @ 12:41 pmI agree. “End the Ukraine War” is indeed playground.
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 7/19/2024 @ 12:59 pmPlease tell me how being on the side of a Russian terrorist thug-in-chief is “picked the American side”, because it sounds like you’re gaslighting to me.
In just 13 short years, from here in 2011 to we’re almost there in 2024.
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:04 pmDo you know anyone who chooses the state they live in based on the Electoral College?
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:06 pm@19 I’m not interested in rebutting your begging the question fallacy.
lloyd (b816a7) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:09 pmAnd now for an interlude. I didn’t know that Cholula was anything other than a condiment, but it’s actually a huge Mexican pyramid.
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:10 pmGood, because I didn’t do such a thing, but thanks for confirming your gaslighting.
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:11 pm@lloyd@17 Something can benefit America or Americans and still be evil.
It’s also really short sighted to see relatively low short term investment in Ukraine to keep them out of Russian hands as less beneficial to Americans than the increased ongoing long-term costs to Americans that would happen if Russia takes Ukraine. Even if you only consider the increased problem for trade of the Black sea being a Russian lake and not increased defense costs in E. Europe, Russia taking Ukraine would be an expensive long-term problem for us.
Nic (120c94) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:28 pmBegging the question:
“Any form of argument where the conclusion is assumed in one of the premises.”
lloyd (b816a7) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:28 pm@9
This irks me to no end.
If you don’t like the direction of your party, it’s incumbent for you to work within the party… meaning convincing your peers to align the party to your interests.
whembly (477db6) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:34 pm@25 That case can be made, and is made. I might even agree with it. If anyone disagrees, are they evil and pro-terrorist?
lloyd (b816a7) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:39 pmYep, gaslighting.
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:40 pmThe Trump-Vance position is clear to anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear.
The lack of condemnation by Trump, the lack of urging Putin to end his war, the stonewalling aid for months on end, Vance’s outright opposition to any military aid, all are facts that make for easy conclusions. And there are plenty more facts.
And meanwhile, all the pressure is being put on the victim of Putin’s aggression, for the crime of defending their right to exist, and none on the actual aggressor, who I’ll repeat is a ten-thousand fold terrorist.
#12
Biden’t purported response:
“I don’t do pedophilia.”
Appalled (88a1a3) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:41 pmLike with Assad’s bombing of Homs in Syria, no Jews no news. If only Putin were Jewish, I suppose.
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:43 pmPaul… your issue is that Trump isn’t publicly announcing positions the way you’d wish it to be…
But take a look at this story:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-suggested-bombed-moscow-invading-135855034.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall&guccounter=1
I don’t think characterizing Trump-Vance as some sort of “ally” is holding much water.
Hell, I remember stories during the 1st Trump administration of how Trump was going to lead us to WW3 because of his bellicose’s behaviors towards Russia and China.
I think either you’re forgetting a lot of things, or engaging in gaslighting of your own.
whembly (477db6) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:47 pmPaul, More and more the GOP is a party of spite, lawlessness, conspiracy theories and identity politics. The democrats are little better. I share your pessimism. As ppl like NJRob frequently remind anyone that will listen, anyone who isn’t 100% in on MAGA is a mooby/rino and should get out of the party.
Time123 (cf026d) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:53 pmIt took a few days, but Time123 got his ad hominem toys back.
lloyd (b816a7) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:55 pmWhembly, unfortunately what Trump says in the moment is little indication of what he thinks and what he will do. Against that single comment we have many many expressions of admiration for Putin (and other authoritarians FWIW)
Time123 (cf026d) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:57 pmYou have been so hopeful, Paul, that the GOP would return to common sense and the historic planks of the party.
It is not likely that it will. Just as Reagan left the Me-too post-war Republicans wondering what happened, so Trump has upended the GOP. He has formed a working-class/lower-middle-class coalition that leaves little room for professionals and the alleged “elites” and aims at radical redress of their grievances. Pretty much the reverse of what Clinton did to the Dems when he spurned the working-class issues in chasing big money donors.
Now, it’s the right-of-center affluent and educated that have no home. It is unlikely they will find much comfort in the increasingly radical Democrat Party either. But all is not lost — both parties want these folks, or their dollars. And if, despite that, the two old parties continue to radicalize there is again room in the Center.
As for Ukraine, it appears that the US is no longer the indispensable country and Europe has to decide what they want to be now that they’re on their own.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:58 pmLloyd, ad hominem is an attempt to discredit an argument by attacking or discrediting the person speaking it. Please learn the correct definitions of words before you use them.
Time123 (cf026d) — 7/19/2024 @ 1:59 pmNote that Trump also has disrupted the Democrats, as he is taking a lot of their base. It turns out that working-class people just want to work and have that rewarded, rather than apply for some new government support. Which is good as Trump is going to gut those.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:01 pmKevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:19 am
That would be too risky a lie to tell. And if he attempted it, it would leak. He is said to be taking Paxlovid. Would that be a lie, too?
Biden had Covid 1 1/2 times before. A case, but of course the standard treatment does not last long enough as we agreed once so he had a “rebound” case. Biden slavishly follows some medical advice.
At least Donald Trump endorsed “right to try” in his acceptance speech although he seems oblivious to the fact that the law is not really working or is pretending.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/19/us/politics/trump-rnc-speech-transcript.html
That was one of the more honest portions of Donald Trump’s speech.
I couldn’t find this excerpt in this NBC transcript of what is supposed to be the same speech.
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/national-international/read-donald-trumps-full-rnc-speech-accepting-gop-nomination/3432055
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:07 pmYou don’t know what Trump would’ve done in his fictional 2nd term, whembly, because it’s all hypothetical, just like his ridiculous claim that none of these things would’ve have happened on his watch. The problem here is that Trump’s perceptions are not reality.
At issue are what he’s actually said in response to Putin’s aggression and his pledges going forward, all of which are categorically pathetic.
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:08 pmPaul,
I would like to know why you think that Ukraine must fall. Will the EU do nothing? It’s their backyard after all and their GDP is $15 trillion more per year than Russia’s, their population is 3 times as many, and Russia is rather short of cannon fodder at the moment.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:09 pmYou don’t know what Trump would’ve done in his fictional 2nd term, whembly, because it’s all hypothetical, just like his ridiculous claim that none of these things would’ve have happened on his watch
None of us do, but President Biden wasn’t much of a speed bump, even for 13th century goat-herders.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:11 pmDonald Trump and his people wrote the platform and imposed it upon the Republican
Party.\https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/us/politics/trump-gop-platform-convention.html
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:16 pmYou’re right, all bets are off the moment EU troops (no such thing) enter Ukraine. I would predict Russian missile attacks on European cities after January 20, 2025. We’ve seen Russia has no compunction in conducting terror attacks against Ukrainian civilians, why wouldn’t he do the same to Paris, Bonn, Warsaw, or Vilnius? And overall, Americans generally don’t care about what happens to Ukraine. Given the choice of intervening and possibly provoking Russia into attacking the US, I’m sure most would choose to sit it out.
President Trump wouldn’t need to withdraw from NATO, he could just ignore the US obligation to defend Europe. Even if Trump is impeached, it’s doubtful he would be convicted and removed, since JD Vance is of a like mind.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:24 pmTrump on Ukraine:
I don’t know if it’s even true that Viktor Orban said that. Trump avers it is:
Is he dead? It seems he is not.
Biden on Ukraine:
He praises what he did in 2022, and later:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/07/11/remarks-by-president-biden-in-press-conference-9/
This requires checking. Biden is not ccontent ewith truthful attacks on Trump.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:28 pmRe: Coolidge/Davis campaign. The contrast cannot be more clear between that election and the current one. What we have today is free of any pretense that issues matter. It’s 100 percent personality. What’s more, the yardsticks for the two candidates have very little in common. One candidate is a showman and the other is a politician. One candidate’s outrageous statements are brushed off as “It’s just Trump” while the other candidate’s verbal and physical stumbles are regarded as hopeless ineptitude and weakness.
John Boddie (dcf99c) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:28 pmProspective voters had it right when they stated their displeasure for a second Biden/Trump contest. It’s time to update Mort Sahl’s quote: “There were four million people in the American Colonies and we had Jefferson and Franklin. Now we have over 200 million and the two top guys are Clinton and Dole. What can you draw from this? Darwin was wrong!”
Biden on the Gaza war:
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:30 pm@lloyd@28 I was pretty clear in saying I thought it was short-sighted. People can IMO be wrong-headed, short-sighted, ignorant, lack knowledge of a topic, prioritizing badly, self-focused, or being illogical, without being evil themselves, even if I think the outcome, process, or person spearheading something they support is evil.
Nic (120c94) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:33 pmTrump would not say what country this was so it can’t be fact-checked:
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:33 pmI’m sure Putin does know that the European militaries are no match for a combat hardened Russian military. They would be roadkill. the 27 different militaries in European are an organizational disaster:
Without the US and its worldwide military capability, the European militaries can’t fight their way out of a paper bag.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:36 pmOn Ukraine, how is the Vance position actually worse than that of Biden? If we don’t want the war to end with Ukraine losing territory to an aggressor and many of its people living under the nightmare of occupation, then shouldn’t we be actively encouraging/facilitating Ukrainian offensive operations into Russia? Ukraine would have more leverage if it controlled some Russian territory. It’s seemed to me for quite a while now our policies have been aimed more at producing a Korean War style stalemate than a Ukrainian victory. The Vance position certainly sounds worse because it openly contemplates a negotiated peace where Putin gets away with his aggression, but the current administration doesn’t seem to want to allow Ukraine to take the war to Russia, which is what’s needed if aggression is to be punished. The one virtue (if you can call it that) of the Vance position is it doesn’t pretend that the US has acted like it really wants Ukraine to win.
I’ve gone back and forth on this but maybe it’s time, before the election which obviously may change things, to give Zelensky the means and the go-ahead to do whatever the 2024 equivalent is of letting MacArthur cross the Yalu. Russia may have nukes and there are real risks attached to that, Putin lashing out if he becomes a cornered beast etc., but maybe the prospect of actual defeat might also lead some Russian Stauffenberg to try to get rid of the dictator before he causes any more ruin to the country. Or lead to a negotiated peace that would be better than anything Biden’s policies so far, or Trump’s likely policies, would produce.
RL formerly in Glendale (7a2d64) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:38 pmDana,
Thank you for making Ukraine the first item. It is the most important issue in this election.
People who think the U.S. can just sit back while the rest of the world is gobbled up by big autocratic powers will realize their mistake when it is too late.
norcal (336ea9) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:39 pmWe’ve seen Russia has no compunction in conducting terror attacks against Ukrainian civilians, why wouldn’t he do the same to Paris, Bonn, Warsaw, or Vilnius?
Because Ukraine can’t fight back and these folks can. And will. France alone can end Russia.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:53 pmPresident Trump wouldn’t need to withdraw from NATO, he could just ignore the US obligation to defend Europe.
What makes you think that Europe needs us?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:55 pmWell, Vance wouldn’t have transferred billions of dollars in weapons to Ukraine to start. Ukraine’s defeat would have been a matter of months. Ukraine has successfully attacked Russian air bases, naval assets, and refineries. But they will never have the capability to attack Russian cities as the they have been attacked. That would require receiving medium range ballistic missiles (with a range of 620-1,860 miles). Unfortunately, the US military no longer has any Pershing II missiles, they were destroyed to meet the now-defunct Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. ATACMS is the only short range ballistic missile in the US inventory.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 2:57 pmItem three what is this thing you have for coolidge? Didn’t the klan march thru washington d.c. when he was president.
asset (491ede) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:02 pmNot even close to being true. NATO (EU) would absolutely devastate Russia, Russia doesn’t have battle hardened troops; under equipped, battle fatigued, dead, sure. They have close to zero airpower, only trumped by Ukraine’s complete lack, MBT’s getting thwacked by Bradley’s, out donated old tanks are destroying T90Ms about 5/1 and T90 and T72s infinity/1. Basically the only thing western tanks worry about is arty and ATGMs. Ukraine has a logistics issue, which I assure you wouldn’t be the issue with NATO.
Military engagements aren’t the issue. Russia is fundamentally the equivalent of Iran or Hamas, indiscriminately targeting civilian populations. And nukes. Russia will be targeting Copenhagen, Vilnius, Prague, Berlin, London, and Paris.
If Trump tries to withdraw from NATO, Trump will be impeached, and there are still enough R’s in the house to approve it. Senate would be a crap shoot though, and if Vance tried to do it, he’d go too. Who would he pull in as Veep?
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:08 pmItem three what is this thing you have for coolidge? Didn’t the klan march thru washington d.c. when he was president.
asset (491ede) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:02 pm
Read Amity Shlaes book “Coolidge”, and you’ll understand.
norcal (336ea9) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:11 pmWho would he pull in as Veep?
Needing a majority of each house of Congress, with their backs up.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:12 pmI don’t disagree with this:
We have talked a lot about a Biden’s slow walk of military aid to Ukraine and the frustration it causes. He and his aides have consistently worried about Putin being further angered by any further by quick provision of what Ilraine requests. It’s been maddening as Biden seems to believe that peace and democracy are qualities that Putin would like to see enacted in Russia. How can he be so self-deceived or think that we will buy that sort of nonsense? Like Putin can be honestly negotiated with…. Maddening.
Dana (2c8865) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:12 pmMilitary engagements aren’t the issue. Russia is fundamentally the equivalent of Iran or Hamas, indiscriminately targeting civilian populations. And nukes. Russia will be targeting Copenhagen, Vilnius, Prague, Berlin, London, and Paris.
How do you think that would go? Would Russia actually use nukes when it is not itself threatened? Would the Russian generals allow it?
And if so, there would be nothing left of Russia in the morning.
Use of conventional weapons against Berlin, London, Paris, etc, would result in the same being visited on Moscow, St Petersburg and wherever Putin happened to be.
I just cannot see Putin deciding to trade his regime and/or life for a few bits of Ukraine. He would settle first and hope to keep Crimea.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:17 pmAsa I just pointed out a few minutes ago, there is no one European military, there are 27 and they are an organizational mess. What makes you think Russia won’t retaliate if French, German, Finnish, Polish, etc. troops join the war in Ukraine? I never said that Russia would invade Europe, I said I expected Russia would lob a few missiles (such as the Iskander, with or without nuclear or chemical warheads) at European capitals. And Europe’s 27 militaries (unlike the US) don’t have nuclear first strike capability against Russia or China; or the global reach of the US.
France can’t fight itself out of paper bag. Ever since the American Revolution we have had to go overseas and save their butts. In their biggest post-colonial wars (Algeria and Vietnam), they were humiliated.
Without a little bit of evidence, your faith in Europe is misplaced. It’s obvious that Europe wants the US, or they wouldn’t be so keen in keeping the US in NATO.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:21 pmDana,
The slow-walk has also served to make Biden indispensable here. A victorious Ukraine wouldn’t need Biden to save them. Is he that cynical?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:22 pmRip, your fear of what Putin might do is not only misplaced, but noisome. This is the opposite of deterrence. Instead of saying “Don’t Tread on Us” you have it “Please don’t hurt us.”
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:24 pmI really don’t see how Trump withdrawing from NATO (or ignoring Article 5) leads to him being impeached and convicted. I doubt there would be 2/3 of the Senate agreeing to a conviction. Trump has nothing to lose.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:28 pmOther than the 2 Nuclear powers in Europe having first strike capabilities. They’re, like ours, policy is to only have retaliatory strikes. But an SLBM from the UK or France, or air launched can be first strike as well, none of that has anything to do with it. We, nor they, are going to use a first strike, and we, nor they, don’t want to have to respond to one either.
That’s the risk, NATO would absolutely roll the Russians, and NATO absolutely trains to fight together, extensively, every day, and have since NATO was founded. The US absolutely provides a vital role, but our biggest asset is our logistics capability, but that wouldn’t be a problem since Russia, or Ukraine is Europe. Just aim to the east.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:32 pmIt’s not fear-remember, last week I was advocating US intervention into Ukraine and bombing Russian cities to get a taste of what their own government is doing to Ukraine. I’m just pointing out what will probably happen once European nations become combatants. Do you think Russia will ignore that? The US has structured its military to deter its adversaries, Europe has not.
You need to deal with the world as it is, not how you want it to be.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:34 pmOnly the Americans are providing that deterrence:
If President Trump decides withdraw this guarantee of security, NATO would be run over like a dead possum.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 3:41 pmRussia has been conducting low level sabotage operations in Europe since the spring.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:05 pmAs well as jamming GPS signals in the Baltic Sea area, threatening civilian aviation and maritime safety.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:07 pmTaking away the largest, best equipped, most highly trained military in the world has an impact, obviously, but NATO(EU) would be the second. The EU has a nearly 2M man active duty troop strength, compared to the US’s 1.33M. So yes, the loss of the US would be a blow, but NATO is still the second highest trained, second best equipped, second most dominant body, especially since the fight would be in Europe. They are by far the largest one in Europe because they are Europe. Western Russia is also in Europe.
Russia will not fight a two or 6-8 front war, they would escalate to nukes immediately. If they did, even if Trump wouldn’t follow an Article 5 call to arms, like Europe came to our aid, do you think the US wouldn’t side with Europe in a nuclear exchange?
And I’m sure the house could get 50% of the members to find a high crime in pulling out of a ratified treaty, getting the senate to bounce DonnyLimpNoodle might be a struggle, but there’s not a zero chance either. If anything could swing the Lindsey and McConnel wing over, that would be it.
Realistically, Europe isn’t marching into Ukraine specifically because the risk of Russia starting a nuclear war is absurdly high, so give them all the old stuff and bleed the Russians. Russians are losing roughly 1k people a day now in Ukraine, over 100k people dead, and 300k wounded. That’s most of the infantry combat power the Russians have. Giving Ukraine weapons, and freedom to hunt in Russia, that can interdict supply lines will further degrade the Russians.
Realistically the US isn’t withdrawing from NATO, Trump wouldn’t want to risk alienating a wing of his backers, no matter how pro-Putin he is.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:10 pmLow level is low level specifically because it doesn’t escalate.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:11 pmThe key is, do you want to elect a pro-Putin P/VP as president of the US, who may move to isolate the US globally, so we have fewer allies, less ability to project strength. Create a tax the poor system with tariffs, driving a trade war against the globe, basically cause global chaos, for what benefit? We live in the globe, if we alienate everyone else, what then? Losing the dollar as the global trade currency to the Euro, would devastate the bond market in the US.
Nothing Trump proposes is a good idea, but why would it, he’s a f’ing moron. Just ask all the people who worked for him. Trump, all downside, no upside, he just wants America to punch itself in the nuts for LOLZ.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:20 pmThis is just the result of at most 30 seconds of research, but Wikipedia says:
“Most recently, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024, enacted on December 22, 2023, prohibits the President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without approval of a two-third Senate super-majority or an act of Congress.”
So, is it realistic to think Trump could withdraw the US from NATO? If he purported to, would that be an impeachable offense?
RL formerly in Glendale (7a2d64) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:21 pmLow level for now, but what’s to stop Russia from escalating in the future? I wouldn’t be surprised to see some political assassinations, especially if European countries intervene in Ukraine. Russia has done it before.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:22 pmFirst, the previous Trump Administration ignored a similar restriction when it withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty in 2020 and nothing happened. The Office of Legal Counsel determined the law “unconstitutionally interferes with the President’s exclusive authority to execute treaties and to conduct diplomacy.” That opinion has not been changed or withdrawn.
Second, Trump has nothing to lose by ignoring the restriction against withdrawing from NATO, whether it is impeachable or not. If the Republicans retain control of the House, there is no way he would be impeached. But if he was, the Senate wouldn’t have the votes to convict.
The courts probably wouldn’t intervene, because a future Congress would need to authorize a lawsuit against the Administration (unlikely) and the courts would probably consider it a “political question” not amenable to judicial review.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:33 pmIn my opinion, Trump won’t actively withdraw from the NATO treaty, he will just ignore any obligations under it while withdrawing US forces and weapons from Europe. Doing so will not raise any constitutional questions, but would achieve the same ends.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:39 pmIf escalation happens, it escalates on both sides. Russia has huge incentives to keep it at pesky irritations. They don’t want NATO to roll through Kaliningrad and Western Russia, they don’t want to have to use nukes to defend themselves because then they’d be the target of them as well, France or the UK can evaporate Moscow easily.
Russia wants to annoy the EU, and hope that arms shipments get cut off from the US by their political ally, Trump, and get they’re man in Washington to threaten NATO, and pressure Ukraine to let Russia have the territory they’ve taken.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:41 pmLOL!
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:41 pmWithdrawing from Open Skies, and withdrawing from NATO are massively different. Frankly Open Skies hasn’t been important really ever. Nothing those flights get aren’t better provided by military, intelligence, and commercial satellites, both for visual and SIGINT.
Our and Russia’s OS aircraft were kind of crappy. OC-135B’s aren’t that sophisticated, and the Russian’s can just send a dude over here with an iPhone via an airline. You can drive up to the gate a couple hundred feet from our ICBM launchers in the Northwest. Not really a thing. NATO is a thing.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:47 pmRuh-roh. Trump had a “very good phone call” with Zelensky. Is that better or worse than a perfect phone call?
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/donald-trump-zelensky-phone-call-2024/index.html
norcal (336ea9) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:56 pm
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:56 pm.
But the principles outlined in the OLC memo remain the same; the Congressional restriction interferes with the President’s foreign policy and commander in chief functions.
Only with the United States participating. If Trump doesn’t want to participate, he can let NATO die on the vine.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 4:58 pmWhat if they use nukes preemptively, as part of their offense? It’s part of their thinking.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 5:02 pmI recommend having a policy of consistency with statements by Lavrov.
He always has ulterior motives
He is always dishonest
The opposite of what he says is usually true, but its simpler to refuse to get drawn in to his game- even if you dislike his target
I’ve been a big proponent of arming Ukraine with great weapon systems and delivering them in quantity expeditiously and without stupid restrictions.
I do not want to sacrifice one single poor kid from SW Ohio who joined the military because they had no place to go.
Steve Earle says it well
steveg (3555c3) — 7/19/2024 @ 5:25 pmhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVEUqXe9UiQ
Just for an FYI, a single Ohio Class SSN is the 6 largest nuclear force on the planet. UK’s Vanguard and French Triomphant have 128 warheads per sub, plus the French also have maintained their 290 air launched TN81s.
The US land leg of the Nuclear Triad is a giant ship show, the Minuteman III’s were a 10 year stopgap that we’ve been relying on for 54 years. The replacement is 2X over budget and but we’ve no choice, we have to go with the Sentinel upgrade as we don’t have another option. Alex Hollings has a good video primer on that.
I’d be OK with dumping the ICBM and just replace them with an all SLBM ICBM option. Just build some more Columbia class SSNs, we’d still have aircraft based legs of the triad.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 5:29 pmCalvin Coolidge, civil rights pioneer.
(Coolidge’s predecessor, Republican Warren G.Harding, also had, for the time, a surprisongly good civil rights record. In this, both differed from “progressive” Woodrow Wilson.)
Jim Miller (2cf405) — 7/19/2024 @ 5:37 pmLook into this audience
Ready willing able
I should not fault caution on their behalf- and I have faulted Biden. If these kids are honestly why Biden thought he should slow walk weapons and have restrictions on them- then OK
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_VsvZmIWxY
Don’t spend the lives of the brave easily.
steveg (3555c3) — 7/19/2024 @ 5:48 pmThank you for the Coolidge information, Jim.
norcal (336ea9) — 7/19/2024 @ 5:49 pmBTW, Trump talked about a national “Iron Dome” which is a bit more complicated as we’re 500 times bigger, but, like Israel, would require a layered defense where you’d need medium and long range missiles, not just Iron Dome and interceptor’s.
Doing a bit of math, there are 336 cities over 100k people, if you need 5 batteries per city (not really true as LA/NY/DFW…would need 10x that) then you need 1,680 batteries at $50M a pop. Each battery needs 10 interceptors, at $150k per, plus a reload per, so that’s 33,600*$150k, that’s a tiny $5,040,000,000…$5 TRILLION with a T, just for the interceptor. But add the launcher/site cost of a measly $84 ahem TRILLION, or $90T. But hey, we’ll get economies of scale, so half that, $45T–double the entire US GDP, and really when was the last program that came in under budget.
We are currently $400B in R&D with nothing deployable.
And that’s just short range, only covers aircraft, drones, and cruise missiles, you still need a high altitude interceptor for ICBM’s.
Like all Trump ideas, sounds great, but he never talks about how, propose it…magic…protected.
Trump’s success requires magic, reality, work, and logic aren’t part of the solution.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 6:05 pmTrump’s success requires magic, reality, work, and logic aren’t part of the solution.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 6:05 pm
Trump is his own reality-distortion field.
norcal (336ea9) — 7/19/2024 @ 6:12 pmWhat if they use nukes preemptively, as part of their offense? It’s part of their thinking.
Yeah, and we had howitzer-delivered warheads once. It is STUPID thinking. No war game ever showed a nuclear attack stopping before THE END.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 6:28 pmI’d be OK with dumping the ICBM and just replace them with an all SLBM ICBM option. Just build some more Columbia class SSNs, we’d still have aircraft based legs of the triad.
Or change the third leg to something non-nuclear, like Project Thor. SpaceX has got the lift capability.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 6:32 pmLike all Trump ideas, sounds great, but he never talks about how, propose it…magic…protected.
No, thanks. I’ve played Missile Command.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 6:33 pmReplacing ICBMs with rods from God probably wouldn’t cost less. It would be hard to defeat, yes; but part of the reason the land based system is to be a bullet sponge, i.e. be a soak for an adversary’s nuclear weapons. It requires roughly half of Russia’s stockpile, or all of China’s in a first strike if they want to deter the US from retaliating. You don’t win a nuclear exchange, you survive.
Tactical nukes=end of civilization. Strategic nukes=end of civilization. nukes bad.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:04 pmBlinken says
https://www.timesofisrael.com/blinken-iran-one-two-weeks-away-from-producing-enough-material-for-nuclear-weapon/
Blames it on Trump
steveg (3555c3) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:11 pmBlames it on Trump
Yes, if only he had trusted Iran not to to do that, and sent them money, they wouldn’t have.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:16 pmTactical nukes=end of civilization. Strategic nukes=end of civilization. nukes bad.
“The only winning move is not to play.”
But Putin’s dialed this back to zero. If there is no such thing as winning a nuclear exchange, he just threatens first use. It’s insane of course, and in believing him he wins. So is it really insane?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:21 pmsteveg (3555c3) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:11 pm
What does Israel do if it believes that the Iranian theocracy is about to produce a nuclear weapon?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:23 pm@86 can putin afford nuclear war with nato if trump stays on the sidline leaving russia devastated and u.s. and china whole? Every month nato countries are being forced to buildup their military against what trump might do. Even germany is making an effort.
asset (82729a) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:10 pmJust remember, life could be worse. You could be head of Quality Control at Crowdstrike.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:23 pmSheila Jackson Lee dead of cancer 74 (ace)
asset (82729a) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:28 pmNetanyhu is supposed to be visiting Biden in person next week. And after that charade is over and done, he should meet with the real powers behind the throne.
steveg (3555c3) — 7/19/2024 @ 9:02 pmMy guess is Netanyahu gets just enough to survive, but not enough to deter
I think Netanyahu attacks Iran is some fashion.
steveg (3555c3) — 7/19/2024 @ 9:08 pmMaybe it isn’t brute force. Maybe there is another industrial accident
If Putin is dumb enough to escalate from a limited Ukrainian conflict to a broader NATO conflict, NATO would not limit themselves to only attacking through Ukraine, so that would put several hundred thousand NATO troops within 4 hours of the Russian border, From Murmansk in the north, to Gali in Abkhazia. Although I kind of doubt Turkey would respond to an Article 5 call up if it meant they had to collaborate with Greece, Turkey’s more important than Greece in the alliance though. Realistically just call the Ukrainian border the southern point.
Russia doesn’t have the troops, armor, or aircraft to defend that amount of territory. Their entire doctrine is to trade tactical nukes for technical disadvantage. As long as it stays conventional, they get pushed back, well not really pushed, NATO would just drive uncontested. The only option to stop it would be tactical nukes, as long as a nuke goes off in Russian territory it probably doesn’t escalate, if they crossed the border, a bit, maybe not, but less certainty on it. If they start pot shotting European capitals, the French and British would respond, plus the US nukes in Italy and Germany are supposed to allow the locals request to access.
Between the UK and France you’re still talking about close to a thousand warheads, the smallest an order of magnitude stronger than Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and 5X that if dialed up to max. Sure, the Russians could glass Europe, but Europe can glass them back. Assuming that in this exchange America still stays out.
End of civilization on most of 2 continents and roughly a 3rd of global trade just stops, as 100M people die in the first year in Europe. Europe and European Russia turns into the Walking Dead land, with no central government, but also large swaths of the continent uninhabitable. Most of the population disappears within a decade.
Rapid economic collapse in North America and APAC, but generally keep their technical capabilities, but economic conditions contract the economy by 50%, leaving a significant chunk of the population unemployed and relying on central government support, the global depression takes its toll, taking 2 generations to climb out of. The US retains its nuclear stockpile, keeping the less impacted at bay from any invasion, but having to rely on Mexico and Canada and forming a single republic eventually.
Africa is already in economic collapse, so how much worse can it get? Well, with no food and medical support, it claims about 30% of the population in 2 years for central and northern Africa. South Africa is relatively stable, losing only 15%, but 70% of their economy. Long term populations continue to die off till the continent reaches carrying capacity, and the South Asian block starts to colonize.
The Caribbean and Central/South America fare only slightly better, the farther north the worse it goes, until central Mexico, and the Caribbean states closest to the US. Central and southern South America, most of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, do OK, being relatively modern and agricultural maintain most of their population and level of development, but stagnate until the hemisphere recovers.
The Middle East fares pretty well, until the Sunni and Shia go to war, dragging Turkey in. All out assault from Israel on Iran to prevent them from using nukes, Hamas in the West Bank and Hezbollah escalate against Israel, pulling in Jordan to try to police the West Bank, which brings in Iraq against them. The fighting in the Golan Heights pull in the Lebanese militia and the Syrian federal troops, Israel goes on a hair trigger, Iran launches a few long range missiles, Israel overreacts and glasses about half of all Iranian bases goes away, Iran sets off a dirty bomb in Haifa because it’s on the coast and the wind is blowing inland. The middle east ends up being in it’s perpetual quagmire war, just escalated a level, with 500k Iranians dead after about a week, and 500k others in the coming months. Over the following year the region is severely impacted by food and medical shortages, taking another 3 million. 20 years on there are pockets of humanity around the coasts, but generally not much outside.
In Central Asia, Pakistan and India set off a regional war, which quickly escalates to a nuclear exchange, 5M in India, and another 2M in Pakistan are killed instantly, widespread famine and disease spreads, adding 10M more to death toll in Central Asia in two years, the other ‘stans still in desperate need for food aid loses roughly a third. Generally India limits population impact to only about 15% of its population initially, so 225M or so, but over a decade, drops to roughly 400M. In Pakistan it’s about 30%, initially, 70% as population collapses and refugees are forced to try the hand in India.
Australia and New Zealand are less impacted than any other English speaking countries, increasing their trade and partnership with China, but has a severe initial economic impact followed by a baseline roughly 10% lower than before, but still higher than most other regions.
China also takes a large economic hit initially, but with it’s base industries being intact, and having little impact from the European/Indian/Iranian exchanges, recovers quickly by focusing on South Asia and ANZ as economic partners. Takes Taiwan without a shot being fired, also takes Siberia with little trouble. South Korea crosses the border with North Korea in Year 2 after having survived a pretty drastic collapse, to find North Korea depopulated, partners with China to rebuild and resettle for agricultural use.
The recovery reshuffles the economic leadership of the globe, China/South Asia becomes the most important block, ANZ remains a high functioning niche player. North America and South America become more integrated falling to third and fourth respectively, Africa unifies into a generally single empire, with half the population dying off, but having little development to begin with, resets to the 1940’s. Europe in general is a burning heap, with pockets in Scandinavia, Iceland, and Ireland having been impacted less. Northern England/Scotland is generally OK, but has to feed the refugees from the urban south and ruins of greater London.
Generally the whole globe becomes stagnated for 100 years, global warming decelerates as partial nuclear winter and less human output cap CO2 growth.
So that’s the outcome of a contained nuclear exchange. Subtract most of humanity from the northern hemisphere but you maintain some life in the southern hemisphere if you have a full exchange. In this situation, if it started in Europe but included the US, China isn’t directly impacted, but still has a vast die off as nuclear winter and fallout severely impacts highly populated areas, like the rest of the northern hemisphere.
nukes=bad, but may stop global warming, so there’s a silver lining. It glows, but silver.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:09 pmAnd so, if Putin is likely to do this, why isn’t he dead yet?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:34 pmPeople outside of Russia have ethics, people inside of Russia are afraid”
Just because a thing can happen doesn’t mean it will. But you need opportunity, Putin doesn’t give much, and assassination by a foreign power could trigger the thing you’re trying to avoid.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:41 pmPeople outside of Russia have ethics, people inside of Russia are afraid?
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:48 pmjuly 20 1944. Wagner group tried until leader lost his nerve. Russians werwe cheering them on to moscow.
asset (dfa3da) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:01 amIsn’t that $5 BILLION with a B?
lurker (c23034) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:45 am33,600 x $150,000 = $5,040,000,000 with a…tttttT.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:55 amYour right BbbbbbB, so only $90Billion total, well that’s a bargain.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 3:01 amNever do math after a few Michter’s 10.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 3:03 am5,040 — thousand
5,040,000 — million
5,040,000,000 — billion
5,040,000,000,000 — trillion
But all that is besides the point. Will Trump’s building be the tallest in Kuala Lumpur?
nk (3d517b) — 7/20/2024 @ 3:04 amNot the last time I was in KP. To be fair there was just a-hole there.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 3:21 amIs joke I read in book. I tell now.
Three capitalists get together for a business lunch. The check is $75.00.
The first capitalist asks to be the one to pay because it would cost his company only $37.50 because of the corporate tax bracket.
The second capitalist says let him pay because his company is paying windfall profits tax and it would cost his company only $18.75.
The third capitalist says let him pay. His company is a cost-plus-fixed-fee defense contractor and they would make $7.50 on the meal.
nk (9fe590) — 7/20/2024 @ 4:23 am“Ukraine must fall”? I never said that, Kevin. And BTW, the EU is providing more to Ukraine than the US.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 6:54 amIt was Trump who said he would encourage Putin to invade a NATO member that didn’t pay their bills.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 7:12 amHe’s objectively pro-Putin. It’s odd that, when it comes to Putin, Trump is a terrorist sympathizer and terrorist apologist.
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-shooting-assassination-conspiracy-theory-staged-biden-poll-1925723
1/3 of Democrats and 3/25 of Republicans identify as mentally ill.
NJRob (80a789) — 7/20/2024 @ 7:38 amMs. Cheatle even looks like Jill Biden approved DEI hire. Being “ultimately responsible” in her case means resigning.
All these lapses were on her watch. Biden should throw in Mayorkas for good measure, which he should he do when he’s not flickering.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 7:45 amWhy would a NATO member not want to pay their bills?
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 7:58 amAll NATO members pay their bills. The US and Germany each pay 16% of the NATO budget, and each nation pays their stipulated percentages. There are no “delinquent” members, as Trump lied about.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 8:06 amBut Trump is dishonestly conflating the issue. Obama initially requested that each NATO member spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense, and Trump followed up on that, and it was clear that he was talking about the 2% figure. Presently, 23 of the 32 nations have reached that threshold, so presumably Trump would encourage Putin to invade 9 NATO members.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 8:08 ampresumably Trump would encourage Putin to invade 9 NATO members.
Doubtful. That was just a bit of table-pounding. The annoyance is that many of the EU countries have extensive “safety nets” (up to what amounts to a guaranteed income) and can afford that by skimping on defense.
Left unsaid is the decline in US defense spending. It was 6% in 1984 during the Cold War buildup, declined when the Cold War ended, then rose again after 9/11 to reach 4% in 2010. It now just under 3% and expected to decline further.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 8:50 amActually between the two of them they have about half that number. The UK has approximately 225 warheads, of which 120 are available and 40 are deployed on submarines. The UK has been steadily reducing its nuclear arsenal.
The French have approximately 290 warheads. They also have been reducing the number of their nuclear weapons, eliminating their land-based nuclear missiles in 1996. Most of their remaining nuclear weapons are on submarines, only one of which is on patrol at any given time.
Neither country allows their nuclear forces to be deployed to defend Europe, only themselves. They are not part of NATO military planning. They may complicate Russian nuclear strategy, but only to the extent that British and French nuclear forces become targets of a Russian first strike.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 8:54 amOk. And what was Trump’s exact hypothetical?
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 9:05 amAvoiding the question; no one is talking about nuclear howitzers. The missiles used against Ukraine (Iskander and Kinzhal) are dual capable: non-nuclear or nuclear warheadsIn May Russia deployed its tactical nuclear forces in training exercises. It’s not a question whether the West thinks a nuclear war isn’t winnable, the question is why do the Russians think so, and why they plan for it.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 9:10 amI agree she should resign, but calling her a “DEI hire” is a bit much. To me, a “DEI” hire would be someone who has absolutely no qualifications or experience for the job and is there only because of their gender, race, etc. She at least has the experience, having worked at the SS for 30 years prior to moving to PepsiCo (for one year).
Would you agree with the criticism that most women SS agents are also “DEI hires”?
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 9:23 amI dunno what you’re talking about.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 9:33 amHere’s a little slice of Patterico on Chip Roy and his wanting to defund the Secret Service…
He also brought up Norm MacDonald on Jane Fonda…
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 9:42 amIf any of the speakers at the RNC convention condemned the Russian Terrorist Thug-in-Chief for his terrorist attacks and civilian abductions and thousands of war crimes, I didn’t hear anything about it.
I did hear that pro-Russian propagandist and billionaire David Sacks blamed America for Putin’s Major Escalation in 2022, faithfully parroting the Kremlin narrative.
And speaking of Russian propaganda, anyone who was an adult during the Cold War has already seen how their disinformation ops work. When they withdraw, there’s barely a blip, like when they announced that the last of their naval vessels in Crimea left the peninsula to safer harbors.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 9:55 amCan I get a comment out of moderation? I accidentally put in five links instead of the maximum four allowed.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:13 amUnder what hypothetical did Trump comment about not protecting a NATO country? Your link plays part of the speech.
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:20 am131,
Done.
Dana (f28877) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:28 amBritish and French nuclear forces become targets of a Russian first strike.
The repeat what you said: submarines. Good luck with that.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:33 amThe war is literally the only campaign issue that isn’t a complete embarrassment to Biden. Just a half embarrassment. Which means it’s the only issue folks want to talk about even though it doesn’t rank in the top five issues for voters. Likely not even in the top ten.
lloyd (638614) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:34 amAvoiding the question; no one is talking about nuclear howitzers.
Not even me. I’m saying that first use of nuclear weapons is a show-stopper. Literally. We realized that are stopped relying on battlefield nukes since we knew we’d never use them. I guess the Russians are still pretending, but if their war plan is based on using nukes, it will fail. Because they won’t.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:35 amTrump reiterates to NATO allies: If you don’t pay up, ‘I’m not going to protect you’
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:37 amLikely not even in the top ten.
Probably why they aren’t discussing it those other places where those other people are.
HERE, it matters to many of US. So we talk about it.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:37 amThank you, Dana.
I still don’t know what you’re talking about. Trump wasn’t talking about his current fictional presidency where fantastical magical things and World Peace happened after the 2020 election became “unstolen”.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:38 amWhat Chip Roy said is a bit more nuanced:
lloyd (638614) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:38 amRip thinking he’s got this one. 😂🤣
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:38 amI am pretty sure that is a result of you relying on snippets instead of familiarizing yourself with the source.
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:41 amAh, BuDuh, you and I probably do that too. The sad truth is that the media take things out of context all the time to advance their narrative. Fox is no better than MSNBC or the Post. Either Post.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:44 amBoth the UK and France have one deployed submarine out of the four the each possess. They are only good to defend their own countries, not anyone else. Good luck is right.
We’ll see.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:46 amSorry for the formatting errors.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:48 amI don’t know about you, but I don’t do it willfully. And if it is pointed out to me, I do more research.
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:49 amEnlighten everyone where I’m wrong.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:49 amBoth the UK and France have one deployed submarine out of the four the each possess. They are only good to defend their own countries, not anyone else. Good luck is right.
So, the UK and French submarines can only launch missiles against countries that attacked them? How does that work?
And you’re the one who said Russia would knock out
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:50 amthe substheir missiles, and you have yet to explain that, either.More:
Video at link.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:00 amWhy shouldn’t the UK and France put their own self-defense first?
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:02 amEnlighten everyone where you said anything at all. Just a bunch of derpy quotes without any commentary from you.
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:03 amGiven their limited nuclear arsenals.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:04 amSure, BuDuh. Tell yourself that.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:04 amGood job, guys! 👏 👏 👏
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:09 amSo what-is that a requirement? I offer my opinion constantly (see above), but I don’t repeat what others have said that I agree with. So you’re not challenging the facts, you’re annoyed that I don’t pontificate endlessly without any evidence or sources to back my opinion.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:10 amSee my abortion discussions, for example. Pretty much everyone disagrees with me.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:11 amWell, BuDuh, if all you’ve got is baseless speculation about my sources and reading practices, there’s really nothing more to respond to.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:12 amEnlighten everyone where you said anything at all. Just a bunch of derpy quotes without any commentary from you.
He never answers questions about his BS. just deflects with more BS.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:13 amFire away.
When you resort to “BS” or “bullish!t” you’ve run out of arguments.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:26 amPlease provide my exact quote.
Rip Murdock (9a3b4c) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:29 amSergey “The Troll Farmer” Lavrov is in charge of malignant disinformation for the Putin Crime Syndicate.
JD Vance Senator Ohio has a narrower scope of responsibility than JD Vance VP would.
Ohio is the current primary responsibility.
Broader responsibilities have a way of changing people.
If Trump does wins, I am not against a continuation of his “Europe First” policy.
Europe is currently funding a little over 1/2 of Ukraine’s financial needs and a similar amount of Ukraine’s needs for munitions.
I’d like to see that ratio climb. A united powerful Europe that could beat Russia on its own would be a good thing.
The views I have may diverge from Trump’s because I believe US troops should be in Europe and engage in any combat needed to defend NATO allies. My objection before was that with a weak Europe, US forces were staked goats- not as bait, but staked as a trigger in case of a rout. Would very much rather have our military gain its fighting experience within a powerful European coalition, than having to do some D Day hail mary on a modern battlefield
steveg (ad2949) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:37 amWWII showed the US that it takes time to adjust to combat and losses. Africa didn’t go well at first for the Army, Pearl Harbor and the first engagements in the Solomon Islands, the Philippines were gruesome learning experiences.
Much better to gain combat experience within a powerful, competent coalition.
The US role should be as the glue in the coalition, great power in any combat. The Germans French, Belgians and Dutch were awful in 2016. Still would be in a ground war against a Russia willing to loses 100,000’s. They need(ed) to be kicked in the ass by someone like Trump in order to do better. Jeb! wasn’t going to get it done, Hillary wouldn’t have. Trump had NATO in a better place in 2020 and it was much better at facing off Russia in 2022 because of Trumps 4 years of butt kicks. Still a long way to go, because thank God the Russian generals are often incompetent, their weapons systems often weak. But they’ll get better. They will build some very good systems to replace faulty ones, they have learned battlefield lessons, they’ve learned how to counter some western tech advantages, they’ve never been shy about sending minorities to die for mother russia
In the corridors of power, the Vice President is the janitor’s closet. They have no power except to beak a tie in the Senate. The rest of the time they wait for the President to die.
What Trump got in Vance is brag that he is the superior of a Yale Law School graduate who pulled himself by his bootstraps and wrote a wildly successful book without the aid of a ghost writer. A shrewd move to counter those who ask “What is Trump worth if J. D. Vance can replace him?”
nk (06a131) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:54 amAs I look around me, all the craziness makes my head hurt. Good people saying horrific things everywhere.
Yes, nk, I know who supposedly said it, and how that ended up, but I need to focus on what I can change. My heart is dark.
Simon Jester (92677e) — 7/20/2024 @ 12:28 pmHere is the 1997 SS study referenced in post 165.
And here is a 1999 Journal of Forensic Sciences article which summarizes the 1997 study.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 1:20 pmThis reminds me of the 1974 assassination conspiracy movie The Parallax View.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 1:25 pm@165 Suicide by cop, like the softball shooting. LOL
lloyd (0d7409) — 7/20/2024 @ 1:27 pmWhat Trump got in Vance
Trump is, above all things, lazy. He has in Vance a True Believer who will be his COO. Or so he thinks. Me, I expect Vance to be somewhere between Rasputin and Iago.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 1:34 pm“Instead, Crooks appears to have been a ‘normal’ young man in today’s America.”
I’m going to consider the possibility that she’s wrong.
I hope to God she’s wrong. If young men in today’s America are as insular and lost as this guy, we need to deal with that.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 1:36 pmHow’s this for a theory:
1. Crooks was aware of the issues surrounding both candidates, and knew that large numbers of people wanted neither of them.
2. [Insert autistic thoughts]
3. Biden wasn’t available and Trump was.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 1:40 pmUK has ~320 WE177s, France has ~114 TN81/TNA Warheads for it’s Rafale fleet, and somewhere between 400 and 500 MIRVs for their Triomphant class, technically they can fly 640, but typically only load 8 MIRV’s not the 10.
Both France and the UK maintain a stock of material that can be loaded into warheads in a matter of days. So they can use a current inventory of around 950 today, and probably another 100-150 within a few days if planned. I don’t see a situation they’d need all of them for strikes on Russia.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 1:45 pmIs COO Chief Operating Officer? What has Vance ever operated besides his word processor?
True, Trump’s demand of “Meine Ehre Heisst Treue zum Der Trumpfer” will narrow his choices, but within that limitation he will pick people of action, not of words. That’s his domain.
nk (a6d5c0) — 7/20/2024 @ 1:48 pmBoth the French and British can sortee their backup subs, at least 2, but mostly 3, in less than 24 hours. If there was a situation escalating they wouldn’t just sit around.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 1:55 pmUnaccompanied Migrant Children Were Raped By Federal Contractors, DOJ Says
Reaction from Democrats: yawn, then crickets
lloyd (0d7409) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:10 pmDesperate Democrats List Job Opening For Presidential Candidate On LinkedIn
lloyd (0d7409) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:12 pmRip and Pual, you let Budah toll you. He implied (without clearly stating it) that paul’s statement about Trump’s view on NATO was wrong or not supported. Then he made you jump through hoops and ended up by mocking your efforts at good faith discussion.
Time123 (316585) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:15 pmWhy do you think he did it, and what evidence about the shooter lead you to that conclusion?
Time123 (316585) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:17 pm@178 Hodgkinson hated Republicans, and vile left wing rhetoric led him to believe their lives had no worth.
lloyd (0d7409) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:22 pmBiden had 13 public events between July 1st and 15th in multiple states (including Pennsylvania), so he wasn’t exactly hiding.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:26 pmWe’ll see.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:27 pmWrong.
I asked them to articulate the hypothetical.
Are you able to do that? Paul declined because reasons, and Rip thought ransom note magazine clippings were the same as doing one’s own homework.
Paul had a great head start when he said “ All NATO members pay their bills.” I was all but certain he would have properly assembled the hypothetical Trump raised.
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:28 pmTruthfully I only asked Paul to articulate the hypothetical. Rip must have had some spare time to deviate from all his normal copy/paste excitement.
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:32 pmToo late. Remember the 22 year old incel Eliot Rodger and his 2014 Isla Vista massacre in Santa Barbara-six dead, 14 injured, followed by his own suicide-just because he couldn’t get a date?
I would also include 21 year old Dylann Roof and his Charleston massacre-9 dead, 1 injured.
The future is here.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 2:39 pmBiden had 13 public events between July 1st and 15th in multiple states (including Pennsylvania), so he wasn’t exactly hiding.
This one was first, closer and less-protected.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 4:30 pmWe’ll see.
Translation from Ripese:
“I’m wrong but I’ll never admit it, so I’m done with this now”
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 4:32 pmThe future is here.
She said typical, not 5-sigma outlier. A few examples will not show a behavior is typical. THe lack of many many many examples will show it is not.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 4:34 pmNo longer on my to-do list: Embed all my computing into Microsoft Azure.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/20/2024 @ 4:35 pmIncorrect. It means neither of us can predict the future and we’ll just have to wait to see how things turn out.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 4:48 pmI agree.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 4:55 pmnk
Vance is an Electoral College pick
steveg (ad2949) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:08 pmTrump needs Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan.
I’ve seen a lot of people taking Trump’s statements about NATO, Putin and $$ literally.
A. Because they hate Trump and can’t see it any other way
B. Because after buying into ALL of the disinformation about Trump and Russia, they are invested to the point of throwing in good money after bad
If I had $10,000 for every time Trump has used that type of hyperbole I’d be richer than Trump said he was in 2015
steveg (ad2949) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:13 pmTroll, to be exact, Time. Trump said the words, confirmed by multiple sources, and they were clearly pro-Putin (thus pro-terrorist) and anti NATO ally. The best BuDuh could do was ignore that and put it back on the commenter, a troll act to be sure.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:13 pmWrong again, Paul. You are purposely misrepresenting my position and my question at this point.
It seems you are tolling(😃) me.
l have read the transcript. I know exactly what was said.
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:19 pmI believe that whatever Trump says, he will at least try to accomplish.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:21 pmIf he’s lying to his supporters, they be very disappointed.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:24 pmThe Davy Crockett tactical nuke was fired from a hybrid mortar/smoothbore recoilless with a max range of 4 kilometers which is about 1/2 of the distance a 75mm howitzer could chuck one
I wonder if it was considered “shoot and scoot”. I know I would
steveg (ad2949) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:26 pmThis is Klink-bleach 2.0. Research is a net-negative to the narrative.
I doubt you will read the full transcript.
I know you don’t understand what trolling actually is.
Later gators.
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:26 pmSure. If you don’t think it’s a campaign issue that his opponent is a convicted felon, an adjudicated sexual abuser, defamer and fraud, a malignant narcissist who ridicules our fallen heroes, insults and threatens our allies, sucks up to our enemies, and oh, let’s not forget, tried to end the Republic, then yeah, Biden’s support for a democracy that’s defending itself against the genocidal depredations of Trump’s buddy, our most dangerous and belligerent military opponent, may be the only campaign issue that doesn’t embarrass him. But that’s just me. I suspect Biden’s actual supporters could cite others.
lurker (c23034) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:28 pmThe difference, Bill, is that Koufax retired at the very peak of his career, not at Biden’s washed-up stage. Heck, Nolan Ryan was only starting to learn how pitch at 30, and his fastball was high 90s well into his 30s.
Meantime, my possibly-soon-to-be-former party nominated a malignant narcissist (checking all nine boxes, as capably shown by Kimmel) for the third presidential election in a row. Trump shoulda never been in The Show in the first place.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:30 pmGood for you, and now you join lloyd in gaslighting.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:31 pmSo you think he would try to accomplish/encourage having Putin invade the 9 freeloading NATO members?
There is a huge difference between paying for NATO and paying 2% of GDP into defense spending.
Paying into NATO is sort of like paying into the UN
“NATO has three principal common-funded budgets: the civil budget (funding NATO Headquarters), the military budget (funding the NATO Command Structure) and the NATO Security Investment Programme (funding military infrastructure and capabilities).”
Aha! NATO Security Investment Programme! That funds military infrastructure and capabilities. OK. That budget covers about a week in Ukraine
The NATO Security Investment Programme (NSIP) supports and contributes to deterrence, defence and security. It funds major construction and command and control systems under the ‘over and above’ principle described above. It provides installations and facilities such as air defence communication and information systems, military headquarters for the integrated command structure and for deployed operations, as well as critical airfield, fuel systems and maritime infrastructure.
The NSIP is financed by the ministries of defence of each NATO member. Its implementation is overseen by the Investment Committee. Capabilities are delivered either by individual host nations or user nations, by NATO agencies or Strategic Commands. The 2024 ceiling for the NSIP is EUR 1.324 billion.
steveg (ad2949) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:44 pmMonday’s House Oversight Committee hearing with SS Director Kimberly Cheatle is going to be brutal:
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:46 pmI don’t think he will call Putin on the phone and ask him to attack those particular nine countries. I also don’t think Trump would commit the US to defend Europe as a whole under any circumstances.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:52 pmThey would be on their own. I’m not as confident as Kevin M or the Col. in the ability of 27 separate militaries coordinating their actions in face of a Russian assault.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/20/2024 @ 5:56 pmMonday’s House Oversight Committee hearing with SS Director Kimberly Cheatle is going to be brutal:
Of course. All those assholes, Republicans and Democrats, want all the free stuff they can get paid for by the U.S. Treasury. That’s why they run for office. They’ll totally empathize with Trump.
nk (6c014a) — 7/20/2024 @ 6:00 pmNot sure why, it wasn’t an Azure issue, it wasn’t even a Microsoft issue. It was a Crowdstrike issue, any instance running on any infrastructure that had an active Crowdstrike Falcon subscription that auto-updated got nerfed, doesn’t matter if it’s on-prem, hosted, or AWS.
We have over 10k instances running Falcon on Windows containers on AWS and Azure and had zero issues. Mainly because my policy is to never allow auto-updates. Everything has to go through our test and certification process for our products, not the vendors.
This used to be SOP, also why the SolarWinds, was never an issue for us. Crowdstrike is pretty good, but no one is perfect, you should always do your own homework.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 6:01 pmCatoggio’s latest is both a condemnation of where this party has gone and awe at how Trump has turned the party into reality TV.
The thing about a personality cult, though, is that when the personality is gone, there’s really nothing left of the cult that he led, and Liz Cheney’s words will all the more ring true, that there will come a day when Donald Trump is gone, but your dishonor will remain.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 6:12 pmWhile battling blackberries and such today with my nice electric hedge trimmer, I was to listening to a Sam Harris podcast, with Anne Applebaum as a guest. Good stuff. During the back-and-forth, Harris brought up a 1940 book review by George Orwell, who covered Hitler’s Mein Kampf. The quality of Orwell’s writing and insight stands the test of time.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 6:51 pm@117 russia has exhausted its reserves. (DU)
asset (e20349) — 7/20/2024 @ 6:57 pmCheatle was Director of Joe Bidens VP security detail *whether she was the agent that retrieved Hunters handgun is not on her bio* She was Jill Biden’s #1 go to
steveg (ad2949) — 7/20/2024 @ 7:43 pmIn 2021 Biden gave her the Presidential Rank Award for exceptional performance.
$50 says she very much dislikes Trump. Not saying that came into play, but the way I was taught was to always give 100% but it never hurts to do even more for people you dislike. That way no one can ever say I didn’t give 100% because I let my dislike get in the way of doing the job correctly.
Regarding Vance’s isolationist and conveniently pro-Putin (and therefore pro-terrorist) stance.
The thing is, it’s not about Ukraine, it’s about an expansionist imperialist adversarial Russia, led by a mass terrorist, which an actual conservative once said: “This is without question our No. 1 geopolitical foe. They fight for every cause for the world’s worst actors.”
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 7:51 pmHi Paul
I helped a friend in the 80’s who moved from here up to the Seattle area who had bought an entry level old fixer close to the Green Lake area.
steveg (ad2949) — 7/20/2024 @ 8:08 pmGreat location across the alley from the back of a tavern that featured Rainer Beer. Not that I drank any, that was deduced from all the beer bottles we found in the blackberry thicket.
We only had hand tools and have to say the blackberry won 14 2/3 rounds out of the 15, which we won by knockout in the last seconds. If I had to do it again at my age with $$$ and todays technology, I’d surgically remove a section of the wood fence on the alley, rent a 17 or 25 class mini excavator with a thumb attachment, be done by noon and go have beers.
@203 Remember all the stern pushback from the administration, just hours after the assassination attempt, that requests for enhanced security from the Trump team were never denied. Remember how so many were eager to believe that lie, as with every other lie this administration floats. But Trump lies about his golf handicap, so….
lloyd (fdeb08) — 7/20/2024 @ 8:24 pmThere were Democrats who tried to deny the former president any security detail.
lloyd (fdeb08) — 7/20/2024 @ 8:28 pmNo, she was never “Director” of Biden’s detail, she was on Cheney and Biden’s VP detail. No she had nothing to do with Hunter Biden’s gun, she was in charge of the field office in Grand Rapids in 2017-18, then worked for Pepsico for the next 3 years. Of course this is all completely public information, but why not try to gaslight when it suits a narrative.
Also, Millard Greer was the police officer who recovered the gun from Edward Banner. Again, this has been public information for years.
Why invent conspiracy theories? She was in charge of the organization that dropped the ball, the buck stops with her.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 8:31 pm@211 Just as with the border mess, when incompetence achieves a desired outcome there isn’t much incentive to do the task competently. Incompetence aligns with administration goals.
lloyd (fdeb08) — 7/20/2024 @ 8:36 pmToo soon?
Uses ballistics gel, a similar AR set up and dispels the rumor running throughout the lunatic fringes that an AR15 round at 100 meters that clips the ear would cause major damage or even kill the victim- hence “it was staged!!!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsvJzfXZI18&t=61s
Note that in the video, a very good, very experienced shooter does the ear shot reenactment from about 5 feet away in order to crease the ear.
At the beginning they note that at 100 meters using a “garbage” AR with an MOA of 2-3, an aim at the ear could go 2 inches in either direction
They also note that the red dot magnifies nothing and really is a red dot appearing in the middle of a piece of glass- and at 100 meters the cheaper red dots pretty much cover the whole head
If you don’t like guns, don’t follow guns but want to learn- here you go
steveg (ad2949) — 7/20/2024 @ 8:58 pmI have a blinding, all-consuming hatred for blackberries, only slightly mitigated by a good hedge trimmer.
Rainier was what we drank in the late 1970s early 1980s, mainly because they had cool commercials. The beer itself was okay, something to drink when there was no Bud or Miller or Henry’s.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/20/2024 @ 9:08 pmUhhh?
Laura Loomer, a white nationalist and Donald Trump’s one-time favored pick for a campaign role, sparked outrage on social media by metaphorically dancing on a Black Congresswoman’s grave.
Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX), a progressive voice in Congress who fought for civil and women’s rights, died Friday evening at 74, shortly after she announced she was battling pancreatic cancer.
“Even on her death bed, this ghetto bitch couldn’t keep President Trump’s name out of
her disgusting mouth. I’d say rest in peace, but we all know lying Postemocrats who have destroyed our country are going to hell. Sheila Jackson Lee will be remembered as a destructive force in America and one of the most low IQ members of Congress in the history of our nation. Today she died. Instead of spending her final moments with her family, she was talking shit about Trump on X and spewing more lies.
She won’t be missed. But, I’m sure she will still
be voting Democrat this November.
Good riddance!”
Jackson Lee was a graduate of Yale College and the University of Virginia Law School prior to serving 30 years in Congress.
Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) piled onto the debate, writing simply, “I don’t think ‘heaven bound’ people tweet things like this.”
Loomer doubled down on her remarks Saturday afternoon, adding curtly: “I meant every word I said,” and “everything I said about Sheila Jackson Lee is true.”
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 9:56 pmQuoted Laura Loomer, in moderation. It is pretty foul.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 9:59 pmActivision Announces Release Of ‘Call Of Duty: Moderately Sloped Roof’
lloyd (fdeb08) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:16 pmWhy do you follow Laura Loomer? Wow!
Paul follows all things Trump in his priority feeds, but that made sense after tracking his “outrage” outbursts.
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:33 pmOh… google does work.
More from searching on google:
Double oh…
BuDuh (fa34d2) — 7/20/2024 @ 10:52 pmPaul
Glad you survived the brambles. There is a reason why Uncle Remus told the tale of the briar patch
Its also a reason why man first invented glyphosate and then immediately decided to double the recommended mix ratio.
My idea of using a mini x would be greatly satisfying, but the next years spring, the stuff would be spread everywhere. Which is when I’d park any negative feelings about glyphosate at the curb
Olympia, Rainier started to be sold here around then. I remember when people started bringing Coors home with them from trips to Colorado too.
The commercials for Rainier were clever.
I still think of the motorcycle commercial sometimes when I hear someone winding out a motorcycle, even when I am merging onto CA 154 on an uphill ramp or even better uphill on the 154 off a back country stop sign.
As I said before I have tachometers, but after a while shifting is done by sound (and the visual conditions ahead)
One of the reasons I love using a manual transmission is how much more engaged the mind is while driving. Even though it is second nature, I hear the RPM’s dropping, I see more uphill ahead and the sound tells me when to down shift.
Same goes if I have to merge hot on a level or downhill on ramp- the sound, the speed, the pitch mean I may just stretch 3rd, glide a bit downhill and go straight to 5th gear skipping 4th. Weird to remember decades old beer commercial because of that.
Have a restful Sunday
steveg (ad2949) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:03 pmSo when the incident referenced by the OP occurred (Hunter Biden gun) and she was in Grand Rapids as SAC.
You see, time exists. Also she was never in charge of Biden’s detail while he was veep, too junior, and after promotion, never when he was out of government.
Of course, as a troll, you know this since her bio is public. But facts don’t fit the odd narrative. She IS the director now, and the buck stops with her.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:24 pmCheatle served for 27 years in the Secret Service, including as part of Biden’s detail while he was vice president. She also served in various other leadership roles, including as assistant to the special agent in charge for the Vice Presidential Protective Division and as resident agent in charge for the Secret Service’s office in Grand Rapids, Mich.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/20/2024 @ 11:29 pmIn the absence of sweat, the “blade” can be smeared with a topical anti-coagulant. The ear could also have been numbed with a shot of novocaine in advance, it lasts for hours, and of course there would have been many rehearsals with a dummy blade.
Trump has a lot of connections with professional wrestling besides Hulk Hogan. He appointed one of them head of the Small Business Administration.
nk (81a107) — 7/21/2024 @ 4:13 amNow let me be perfectly clear.
I am not saying anything about Viktor Orban being in Florida the week before.
I am likewise not saying that someone’s agents
1. Found a 20-year old virgin with congenital amblyopia who could not hit anything with rifle shot except by accident;
2. “Approached” the kid with a female agent;
3. Promised him a clean getaway with the femme fatale as his companion, money, a fake passport, and a ticket to Budapest; and
4. Threatened dire consequences against him and his family if he snitched, backed out, or actually shot Trump.
Neither am I pointing out how quick MAGA was to capitalize on the event reminiscent of the public relations blitz by the Palestinians after October 7, or how eager they are to assign blame to everyone in sight, from the Secret Service to everyone who ever said anything about Trump that was not adulatory.
No, no, no! Perish the thought! I am making no insinuations at all!
nk (81a107) — 7/21/2024 @ 4:33 amAngela Lansbury was still a hottie even playing Laurence Harvey’s mother.
nk (81a107) — 7/21/2024 @ 4:35 amIt’s older than those shows. I have seen it in a 1950s Perry Mason TV episode and before that in a Fredric Brown short story.
Again, for informational purposes only.
nk (53139e) — 7/21/2024 @ 5:07 amhttps://nypost.com/2024/07/20/us-news/secret-service-honchos-denied-trump-additional-security-for-2-years-before-assassination-attempt-damning-report-reveals/
So Trump and his team were telling the truth about asking for and being denied protection for his detail.
I’m shocked that Biden’s government lied and the usual subjects bought it hook, line and sinker.
NJRob (80a789) — 7/21/2024 @ 6:29 amThanks. We used to drink Olympia when we were really desperate. All those old local breweries were absorbed by Big Beer and basically dismantled. But no complaints, the microbrew scene in Seattle is exceptional.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/21/2024 @ 6:41 amI did use an herbicide called Crossbow to kill those mofo blackberries, but I felt like I was catching cancer every time I sprayed.
Your 11:24 “public bio” quote seems simply to be info compiled by a NYT reporter. It really isn’t that curious that you failed to link the article, since it is worthless to your claim.
Now your second “quote,” that you didn’t blockquote, and you also didn’t link, appears to come from a 2022 article written in The Hill.
Nothing here, from either you or me, is an official public bio. Maybe one exists that answers the question?
What we do have is your unlinked NYT article quote that is useless for the purposes of debate:
Nobody is disputing that.
Next we have your non-linked, non-blockquoted quote from The Hill in 2022:
Which competes with my linked and properly quoted 2022 article from the security industry trade publication Security Magazine:
One of these two publications is incorrect of incomplete. It is Schrödinger’s cat until something more concrete hits the table.
That said, I do appreciate your trolling with the useless quote and the harder to find non quoted quote. It ran me in a quick circle to figure out if you had some sort of official bio that countered the reports I found. 😃
I recommend others study your two posts to get a true appreciation of a master at work.
BuDuh (4214e4) — 7/21/2024 @ 6:50 am…incorrect or incomplete…
BuDuh (4214e4) — 7/21/2024 @ 7:01 amHere’s another excellent rundown from Sauerbrey on the Russian terrorist state and Ukraine.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/21/2024 @ 7:20 amSo Trump and his team were telling the truth about asking for and being denied protection for his detail.
I never doubted it. The sense of entitled is strong in Mary Anne’s Baby. He is always demanding things. Money, sex, the White House … chocolate!
Why should the taxpayers give it to him? Let him pay for it himself or cadge the money from his supporters.
nk (2b2b3d) — 7/21/2024 @ 7:27 amsense of *entitlement*
nk (2b2b3d) — 7/21/2024 @ 7:28 amhttps://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/21/michigan-poll-trump-biden-polling/74468127007/
More good news.
NJRob (39d8ea) — 7/21/2024 @ 7:36 amRegarding Sasse, Dana, Jonah has a excellent podcast with the guy. In the comments, I wrote tongue-in-cheek that he would be the perfect VP to President Mitch Daniels.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/21/2024 @ 7:49 amThis used to be SOP, also why the SolarWinds, was never an issue for us. Crowdstrike is pretty good, but no one is perfect, you should always do your own homework.
It wasn’t a problem for YOU, due to your SOP, but it was reported that Azure-based clients world-wide were affected. As for testing, how did Crowdstrike’s QC ever let out something that BSoD’d everything it touched?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 8:16 amCatoggio’s latest
Nick is pretty unhappy of late and mostly ranting now. It’s no longer very interesting.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 8:18 amThere were Democrats who tried to deny the former president any security detail.
..were he to go to prison. They didn’t want to have agents in prison with him.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 8:24 amUses ballistics gel, a similar AR set up and dispels the rumor running throughout the lunatic fringes that an AR15 round at 100 meters that clips the ear would cause major damage or even kill the victim
Pretty sure that a 30-06 round from a moose rifle would not do that by clipping the ear. There isn’t enough coupling. And an AR-15 round is pretty light and not all that powerful.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 8:31 amTrump has a lot of connections with professional wrestling besides Hulk Hogan. He appointed one of them head of the Small Business Administration.
Who says Trump has a lock on nutty and tortured conspiracy theories?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 8:38 amI can just see it. Hey, Donnie baby, we’re going to get this autistic kid, who literally cannot hit the side of a barn from 50 feet, to shoot a hole in your ear from 400 feet. Sound like a plan?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 8:41 amHere’s a conspiracy that is MUCH more likely (if not at all likely):
1. Find a 20yo who’s mildly autistic and unable to tell when someone is lying to him.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 8:48 am2. Promise him 40 virgins if he will save America from the Great Satan.
3. Make sure the Secret Service’s iron-rice-bowl deadwood are protecting Trump.
4. Help him get a rifle on the roof in advance, and make sure that the SS ignores it and the roof.
5. Tell him repeatedly “Center-of-mass” and hope like heck he doesn’t go for a head-shot.
My dad would drink Green Death every weekend. I’d steal a can or two, now and then. IIRC, it tasted pretty good. That may have been because it was forbidden.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 8:51 amI can just see it. Hey, Donnie baby, we’re going to get this autistic kid, who literally cannot hit the side of a barn from 50 feet, to shoot a hole in your ear from 400 feet. Sound like a plan?
Double Indemnity!
nk (aa76d7) — 7/21/2024 @ 8:58 amI see the press is at it again, making Trump look bad by reporting his words verbatim.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 9:08 amnk might need a wellness check, which Buffalo Township firefighters would be more than happy to do.
lloyd (1bb3a7) — 7/21/2024 @ 9:09 amAaron Sorkin, on how The West Wing would handle this:
He doesn’t like my idea of nominating Nikki Haley, as she finally endorsed Trump at the end.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 9:53 amSorkin happens to reveal his dislike of the peasants here, which is pretty much the attitude that got us Populism in the first place.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 9:54 amI expect that Buffalo Township firefighters would know who really “took a bullet for democracy”, and who took a scratch on the ear.
nk (bd70a3) — 7/21/2024 @ 10:00 amSouth Sudan almost defeated the US Olympics basketball team. I must admit my feelings are mixed at that result. That new nation has had such a hard time, before independence, and in the civil war afterwards. So you would like to see them win something.
On the other hand, many of their recent troubles are the fault oftheir own leaders.
(One of the many things I fault Barack Obama for is his neglect of South Sudan.)
Jim Miller (e82fe2) — 7/21/2024 @ 10:03 amI made a similar comment about Sasse at Instapundit, and Reynolds put it under “Pending, waiting to be approved by Instapundit”, which speaks volumes about where Glenn’s head is at, which is Trumpist right-wing, not conservative.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/21/2024 @ 10:24 amNot our problem. It’s a problem for the African Union and regional powers.
Rip Murdock (b9e03a) — 7/21/2024 @ 10:27 amSpeaking of tone deaf politicians.
Comedy Gold! 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/21/2024 @ 10:37 amLOL! What did any of Haley’s policies have in common with Democrats? On gun control, abortion, and climate change,, she is the complete opposite.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/21/2024 @ 10:48 amThat is the question, I looked at the config file for Linux bare metal and it has the same sys file referenced, but since it’s Linux it was just garbage instructions. Maybe their Windows instances that they tested against were different than what everyone uses.
I wouldn’t want to be a Crowdstrike(r?) person, the liability is going to be astronomical. We have a pretty good cyber loss insurance policy, but I don’t think it would kick in on this, since it was a defect not security incident. I don’t know if I’d want to put a DevSecOps person from CS on my team right now, just from bad optics.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/21/2024 @ 10:55 amBiden drops reelection campaign.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/21/2024 @ 10:57 amhttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-ends-bid-second-term-white-house-he-drops-out-his-2024-rematch-trump
Voters choices mean nothing
NJRob (eb56c3) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:02 amSo you would like to see them win something.
My guess is that they are going to win some NBA contracts. Maybe they’ll send some money home.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:09 amwhich speaks volumes about where Glenn’s head is at, which is Trumpist right-wing, not conservative.
That must be new. He was getting trolled mercilessly by some DU types with only user-complaint level moderation.
You forget that he lives in fly-over country and shares the local attitude towards the coastal elites who call it “fly-over country.” Populism did not happen in a vacuum.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:13 amLOL! What did any of Haley’s policies have in common with Democrats? On gun control, abortion, and climate change,, she is the complete opposite.
Obviously you did not read what he wrote. His POINT is that, if this is about defeating an existential threat, the Democrats should not care about policy. #NeverTrump is good enough.
Of course the Democrats want to have their cake and eat it, too.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:16 amI wouldn’t want to be a Crowdstrike(r?) person, the liability is going to be astronomical.
I imagine their EULA attempts to insulate them from all and sundry (“We offer no guarantees. If you child chokes to death as the result of negligence in our product, we are immune from your baseless lawsuits”).
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:19 amObviously I was reacting to your comment, not Sorkin.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:20 amThe left pulled off their own coup. Keep supoorting the commies.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:22 amPopcorn futures up
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:24 amBiden did the right thing.
Paul Montagu (b2b4aa) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:25 amLet there be an open convention, not some anointing by the party elite.
Breaking: Biden dropping out, will decline the nomination
makes no endorsementendorses Kamala Harris, will address the nation later today. (this is a written announcement)AS NBC reported last week – he’s 100% in until he’s 100% out.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:25 amAnd Romney would easily lose to Trump. Romney is a walking stiff.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:25 amShe is also the complete opposite of Nikki Haley, depending on what year you look at.
Haley is a major reason we’re in this mess today. She will probably be a good secretary of state.
Biden dropping out was kinda the obvious move two years ago. As for Sorkin’s idea of nominating Romney, it’s amusing because of how unrealistic it is for the democrats to be moderate or cross the aisles these days. It’s also amusing because he’s right. If the democrats really thought Trump was a pedophile threat to all of democracy and the continued survival of the human race and all this other stuff, they could pick Romney and they would absolutely win the general election. It would be a return to normalcy and a correction from the mess of the last eight years of politics.
They won’t because they do not consider Trump to be a serious threat to those things any more than Haley voters did.
Dustin (d3acaa) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:25 amThe “progressives” (aka far left) are demanding that the replacement candidate be from the far left. Run, AOC, Run!
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:25 amAh, I knew Dustin was around here someplace. All I had to do was invoke him with the magic word.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:27 amNah. Trump is formidable now, given recent events. He can’t be underestimated and we can’t assume much of anything against him, as he survives crazy scandals. However, Romney is an excellent politician (who I dislike quite a bit). Romney was in the running against incumbent Obama, who had advantages and skills that are far beyond anything we see today. Since that time, Romney has been vindicated on foreign policy, a huge issue for this election. Romney will gain a significant number of Republicans, and the democrats will be freaking out on election day.
I do think they have a real problem with cutting their nominee without a primary, and of course we are so partisan it’s ridiculous. There’s also a waiting preference cascade to be above partisanship that will attract a ton of voters.
Dustin (d3acaa) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:28 amI read the blog quite a bit, though I just don’t have much to say.
Except that Haley is very, very lame.
Dustin (d3acaa) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:29 am@268
I mean… if the Trump campaign were smart, they’ll continually pound the idea that Democrats pushed Biden out despite what the primary voters wanted.
Like: “They’re trying to SAVE democracy by IGNORING the primary voters!”.
whembly (477db6) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:31 amWould you vote for Trump over Haley?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:31 amIf the GOP were smart, they’d complain about the unfairness of it all and push Trump out to get even.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:32 amMaybe a game of Duck-Rabbit-Duck would get Trump to bow out
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:34 amAgree totally-though I would shorten the timeframe to months or weeks.
Unless she deep-sixes her Hudson Institute speech, her foreign policy views have nothing in common with a Trump administration. She would be good in a Democrat administration though, making it “bipartisan.”
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:34 amLOL! One of my favorites.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:37 amKevin M (a9545f) — 7/21/2024 @ 8:41 am this autistic kid, who literally cannot hit the side of a barn from 50 feet,
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:38 amExcerpt of interview where Elon Musk is clearly irritated with the Biden administration for excluding Tesla from a WH summit on EV’s.
He points out that Tesla makes more EV’s than everyone else combined, but were not allowed to attend
Musk seems particularly galled by Bidens assertion at the summit that “GM is leading the electric car revolution” Musk notes that praise was given was in the same quarter where Tesla made 300,000 vehicles and GM made 26
Goes on to note Tesla has 70,000 employees in the US. Unsaid is that these employees are no less important because they are not GM Ford Chrysler, UAW (all were at the WH summit)
I realize Musk is polarizing, he is prickly, cutting, and has a Jr Hi sense of humor but excluding Tesla is political and is dumb.
The market for EV’s is going into phase where majority of the early adopters have purchased, the charging station roll out has been inadequate*
If climate change brings an imperative and EV’s are a major part of achieving goals, then don’t leave out the major player because politics or personality or patronage or pettiness.
Its like have Space summit and only inviting NASA, Boeing, ULA, Lockheed, Northrup leaving SpaceX outside.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/NASVN5G4FoM
steveg (1929f8) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:40 amHere’s something to chew on…
Harris has to be the top of the ticket… the Biden/Harris campaign has billion dollar infrastructure with about $150 million cash on hand (with big donors currently withholding because they don’t want Biden).
IF it’s not Harris… then the *new* democrat candidate has to start all over.
That’s probably an impossible task.
SO, it’s going to be Harris/VP pick.
Want to know a very formidable and SCARY vp pick? That can probably obliterate Trump/Vance?
Hillary Clinton as VP.
Now… wait! Hear me out why Hillary as VP might be appealing to her…
She’d be the most powerful VP and Harris would have to let her do whatever she wants.
Hillary would have, almost, all the power of the Presidency, with near the same pomp and circumstances, but with almost ZERO accountability.
This keeps the Democratic African American voters…
This energizes the feminists’ voters…
This strengthen and keeps the Biden / Clinton voters…
Gives Clinton voters something the cheer for…
Clinton absolutely neuters what, if any, advantage Vance brings to the Trump ticket.
Clinton brings competency to the ticket, that Harris never brought.
I’m not really seeing a downside for Democrats. If you’d want to beat Trump…
Thoughts?
whembly (477db6) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:40 amNot among voters.
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:41 amNo. I wouldn’t vote for Trump under any circumstances. I just wouldn’t vote for Biden either, at this point, since he is equally reprehensible to democracy. His conduct surrounding the assassination attempt is totally unacceptable. In the chance where a Romney/Haley/Milquetoast slimeball runs against Trump, I would hold my nose again, I suppose, but I would complain a lot about it.
But haley was never running for president. She was only running to ensure the amazing option the GOP had this year had no chance at all.
Dustin (d3acaa) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:42 amIt’s Harris. I think that’s been the plan for a while, actually.
This is kinda smart. She’s gaffe prone without a ‘good’ explanation like Biden’s brain damage. Harris skipped a lot of risk here.
Dustin (d3acaa) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:44 amRip
We do have interests in South Sudan- if only because Russia using PMC’s like Wagner; China, ISIS are parasitically embedded into the Sahel.
Nigeria, Kenya and the African Dis-Union are overmatched. The French and US have been asked to leave and replaced
I’d like to see South Sudan develop into a rich self sufficient country using its natural resources. The Chinese and the Russian prefer kleptocracy, enslavement
Landlocked South Sudan does not have a port, but the Chinese have figured out that if they control the ports, they control the economics of the continent.
The Russians have noticed that they can control vast areas of natural resources using less than 100,000 ruthless, expendable PMC’s
Ukrainians are there too, probably to kill PMC leaders they hold a grudge with
I understand America First, but am also not willing to concede the African continent to Russia and China.
steveg (1929f8) — 7/21/2024 @ 12:07 pmShould we stay where we are not wanted?
Rip Murdock (5be45a) — 7/21/2024 @ 12:10 pm@Dustin@289 I think it was basically the very original plan from 4 years ago. At the beginning of the Biden admin he gave Harris a bunch of high profile stuff to take care of, my bet would be he was thinking she’d shine and up her national profile and then he wouldn’t run at all this time. The problem being that she didn’t shine and so he didn’t feel confident in not running.
Nic (120c94) — 7/21/2024 @ 12:26 pmNic, I think you’re right.
Particularly that Harris didn’t make this work as well as hoped. She really shouldn’t be that bad at this… She’s really the left’s version of Nikki Haley, too. We don’t know what she stands for (not that it matters in an administration that just removed its figurehead leader).
Dustin (d3acaa) — 7/21/2024 @ 12:31 pm@Dusin@293 The people I know who knew her when she was a lawyer (apparently the Norcal law community isn’t as big as you’d think) say that she’s basically a mainstream Dem. Nobody seems to think she’s a Barak Obama style shining star of charisma and puppies but more along the lines of “Well, OK. She’s OK.”
Nic (120c94) — 7/21/2024 @ 12:51 pmDumping Joe was the easy part.
lloyd (7d321a) — 7/21/2024 @ 1:48 pmThat was (planned) just in the Washington. DC area, which includes Rehoboth, Delaware, (it’s not divided that finely) where Biden is staying. It was intended that Joe Biden,(or his family or top political aides?) should see the ad personally since it was thought to be his favorite political show since he called into it himself.
But it seems events outpaced them.
Biden’s political campaign (or maybe that must have been an associated PAC or some Democratic Party committee since the limit to individual contributions this year is $3,300 for the nomination and $3,300 after the nomination and double that for couples since no spouse is considered a straw donor for the other)
…had cancelled planned ads and even tried to get some of their money back but that might be because their fund raising (the part that came from big money donors) was way down from what was expected in July.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/22/2024 @ 10:34 amGaetz is a unifier. All kinds of Republicans are unified in their loathing of him.
Paul Montagu (c160c0) — 7/22/2024 @ 12:07 pmBut haley was never running for president. She was only running to ensure the amazing option the GOP had this year had no chance at all.
It’s your story and you’re sticking to it.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/22/2024 @ 12:39 pmBTW, our QA process found a Crowdstrike Falcon bug last month on Linux distros that kernel panicked. Never bet your business on someone else doing your quality assurance. Hey Boeing, are you listening? you can use that for free.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/22/2024 @ 9:43 pmThere have been several things I’ve been meaning to post about like pharmacy benefit managers and Medicare Advantage payment by diagnosis – newspaper articles about them. Basically how we have systems that work perversely.
And there’s more.
Maybe in the next weekend thread.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/24/2024 @ 1:54 pm