What We Know, Or Think We Know About Circumstances Leading Up To Trump Assassination Attempt
[guest post by Dana]
While the investigations into the the security failures that lead to Donald Trump being the target of an assassination attempt are ongoing, and because it’s difficult to sort through everything, I’ve put up an open thread where you can post updates. Also, feel free to share your theories but avoid the silly type of false accusation that Trump’s newly announced running mate, J.D. Vance, made (just two hours after the incident took place and before any formal investigation had begun.) [Ed. You might ask, what kind of clueless public figure makes an accusation *before* a thorough investigation has taken place? I’ll tell you who: the two doofuses who are the Republican and Democratic contenders for the vice-presidency: J.D. Vance and Kamala Harris, that’s who!]
“Today is not just some isolated incident. The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”
Pffft!
In case Vance hadn’t noticed, Donald Trump indeed has strong authoritarian tendencies, and for the sake of our Republic, he must be prevented from holding office again. That’s not rhetoric – that’s the hard truth of the matter. Of course Vance knows this. . . Or knew this before his um, transformation. . .
Here’s the latest from the New York Times:
F.B.I. officials told members of Congress on Wednesday that the gunman who tried to kill former President Donald J. Trump had used his cellphone to search for images of Mr. Trump and President Biden — and also searched for dates of Trump appearances and the Democratic National Convention. . .
The F.B.I. has not found any indication that the gunman, Thomas Crooks, had strong partisan political views, based on the two phones among his possessions. The absence of “any political or ideological information” at his home in Pennsylvania was “notable” because most politically motivated would-be assassins leave a discernible trail of views. . .
New details emerged Tuesday about a search for the gunman, who was first spotted acting strangely by a police sniper about 20 to 25 minutes before the shooting, according to a local law enforcement official. The sniper took a photo, which was circulated to law enforcement agencies at the rally. Though considered suspicious, he appeared to be unarmed and not an immediate threat, the official said.
After the gunman was killed, investigators found two improvised bombs in his car. The rudimentary devices were made with the kind of initiators used for fireworks shows and may have contained fertilizer. The devices were described in a report for law enforcement obtained by The New York Times.
Let’s hear what you’ve got.
—Dana
Hello.
Dana (d3e8da) — 7/17/2024 @ 4:45 pmI didn’t see authoritarian tendencies. Unlike President Biden, Trump conscientiously deferred to Court rulings that limited his ability to do what he wanted to.
David in Cal (8bbadf) — 7/17/2024 @ 5:02 pm“The F.B.I. has not found any indication that the gunman, Thomas Crooks, had strong partisan political views, based on the two phones among his possessions.”
Pffft. This is the same FBI that ruled the softball shooting “suicide by cop.” I have no trust in their investigation, as they have not earned any trust.
Spinning this as not being politically motivated is a case of jumping to conclusions no different than what Vance did. The fact is Trump was hit with a bullet and Biden was not. The fact is Biden wanted to put “a bullseye on Trump.” If the situation was reversed, we know exactly how this would be spun.
lloyd (8bdb20) — 7/17/2024 @ 5:52 pmPre-buttals are as silly. TEN! flipping percent of Americans said just recently that violence to stop Donald Trump from returning to the WH would be justified. Now, maybe the shooter was not part of that 10% and was just trying to impress Jodie Foster, but that’s not the way to bet.
(NYT free link above)
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/17/2024 @ 5:55 pmYou know what an authoritarian would do on the first day in office? Unilaterally cancel the fully approved Keystone XL as payback to some of this wackier supporters.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/17/2024 @ 5:58 pmthe silly type of false accusation
Except it’s not silly and we only have Biden’s DOJ saying it’s false. Like they did with Covid origins, Biden’s health, the stability of the Afghan government … do I have to go on?
If one runs a campaign on the other guy being an existential threat to motherhood and apple pie you are going to wind some people up. It would be nice, Dana, if you could say that “Trump is NOT an existential threat”, but I’m betting you can’t, or won’t.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/17/2024 @ 6:23 pmThe shooter’s mother is a Democrat ad his father a Libertarian who was into guns and purchasing silver dollars and precious metals. He himself registered Republican Pennsylvania has closed primaries and he lived in a Republican area.\
On January 20, 2021, when he was still 17, he donated $15 to the Progressive Turnout Project, which is probably a scam website that spams people that pretends to help Democrats.
I didn;t know hat he had an interest in attacking Biden aalso.
He took an dvanced Placement class in high school where he seemed to know answers but did not reveal much about his political opinions.
Some people in school called him a school shooter and others complained about him smelling, but he wasn’t really bullied.
He did not have much public online activity. hat is, no Facebook, Insyagram, YouTube, Snapchat, TikTok etc. He had an account on Discord, which is used by gamers, of which he was one (he used to play games in home room in high school) but hadn’t posted anything in several months – and now Discord closed his account based on offline activity – certain things (like committing murder) will get a person banned.
He had an old chess profile. He was in advertisement for Black Rock, playing a student.
He may have testified once before the Pennsylvania Pubic Utilities commission or something with a name like that.He visited the rally area several days before. The ladder he bought was not used to climb up to the roof – the HVAC system was or that’s what Mark Levin had.
He raduated from community college in May.
Sammy Finkelman (51823e) — 7/17/2024 @ 6:24 pmBut even if Crooks was wholly apolitical, the Biden campaign’s claims that Trump will be the end of us all is flipping dangerous and the next guy who tries to take a shot won’t be apolitical.
Rhetoric by the preside3nt and his campaign is not just a bunch of empty words. It has real meaning to many people and some of them are not so tightly wrapped.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/17/2024 @ 6:26 pm“… I am your retribution. I am your retribution. I am your retribution.” Three times, and other disturbing things, too, if you clink the link.
Personally, I don’t think Trump is worth powder to blow him away, but there may be other people who might not want to wait around to see what shape that retribution will take, against them and against the people and things they love.
And Trump, himself, a conman first and first and foremost, is probably tickled pink that finally, FINALLY!, he managed to fool someone into thinking that he was important enough to waste gunpowder on.
nk (ae25c1) — 7/17/2024 @ 6:34 pmThe shirt he wore was a somewhat washed out from Demolition Ranch
https://nypost.com/2024/07/15/us-news/thomas-matthew-crooks-wore-influencers-merch-during-shooting
Demolition Ranch is popular with gamers and one thing it does is show things being destroyed.
He was rejected by his high school rifle club because he was acomically bad shot – one time missing a target by 20 feet from 50 feeet away but later joined his father;s gun club, \\That day his father at first assumed that he’d gone out shooting again but later coudn’t reach him and called the police (probably after the shooting)
Sammy Finkelman (51823e) — 7/17/2024 @ 6:36 pmSo, he did this for no reason? Just something to do? Or he wanted to show the Secret Service up? Because he killed one innocent at least, with two more fighting for their lives. So, nk, the gunpowder wasn’t wasted.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/17/2024 @ 7:18 pm‘Shouldn’t You Hate Trump?’: Former Classmate Recounts Being Called ‘Stupid’ For Backing Trump By Would-Be Assassin
lloyd (5c6b9e) — 7/17/2024 @ 7:40 pmBut my actual theory is this:
Crooks was rebelling against his parents and their “far-right views.”
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/17/2024 @ 7:42 pmSo, he did this for no reason?
For nothing worthwhile. One Trump more or less is not worth the price of a bullet, let alone dying for or killing innocent bystanders for.
nk (646378) — 7/17/2024 @ 8:11 pmIt is not comical to miss a target 50 feet away by 20 feet. It’s almost impossible. Even if it was 50 yards instead of 50 feet its a remarkable miss. That kind of miss would be more likely to be on purpose. Another explanation might be that previously to shooting at Trump, he had a seizure every time he touched the trigger. He might have had an extremely bad strabismus problem that was corrected by surgery. M
steveg (5521ca) — 7/17/2024 @ 8:45 pmI did an experiment using my wifes scarecrow airsoft rifle in a light cross breeze, shot from the hip, no sights and hit a 5 gallon bucket out 50 feet on my second shot, 1st was missed 1 foot left. I usually shoot left handed because I have uncorrectable 20-80 lazy eye and double vision in my right eye, but can hit a target out 100 yards with an AR15 using iron sights even though all I can see is a blurry 1.5 size target (I have learned how to compensate for the double vision and blurriness by aiming “center within the shape my brain sees”) Out past 100 yards my brain just fills in the picture for me, kind of like AI photoshop filling in pixels
There is a guy out here in LA who interviewed people walking by on the beach “boardwalk” about the shooting and the number of people who claimed it was staged by Trump was heart breaking. When the guy who was doing the interviewing pushed back a little and said “hey, what about the dead bystander and two wounded?” and they answered that Trump would have no problem killing others as part of his scheme. Maybe Rachael Maddow is a little bit like Alex Jones after all
steveg (5521ca) — 7/17/2024 @ 8:59 pmNow that their fuhrer has survived their beer hall putsch don jr wants everyone to read their mien kampf.
asset (01b58d) — 7/17/2024 @ 9:23 pmFederal employees know Trump is coming after them if he wins. FBI, CIA, DOJ, State, everyone. Four months is a very long time.
lloyd (e5100a) — 7/17/2024 @ 9:39 pmNow that their fuhrer has survived their beer hall putsch
Bad metaphors
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/17/2024 @ 9:41 pmbiden vs trump is like when hitler attacked stalin you don’t know who to boo for!
asset (01b58d) — 7/17/2024 @ 9:46 pmAsset continuing with the Hitler analogies hoping someone takes them to their logical conclusion.
Evil..
NJRob (eb56c3) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:46 ambiden vs trump is like when hitler attacked stalin you don’t know who to boo for!
More like when you need a date for the prom and your choices are Geraldine Jones or Divine.
nk (646378) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:01 amFederal employees know Trump is coming after them if he wins. FBI, CIA, DOJ, State, everyone.
He better keep his hands off our mailman. We like him.
nk (646378) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:04 amOr he was super nervous about killing a person and that made him shake. A lot of deer hunters miss easy shots for that reason. And this was orders of magnitude more stressful.
Time123 (95a2b5) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:38 amIn the byways of history, Trump and Biden are the discarded cigarette butts.
nk (646378) — 7/18/2024 @ 5:26 amThe Hitler comparisons are just awful. Nothing about Trumps 4 years in office warrants the comparison. It also trivializes the Holocaust.
Mattsky (f0ac87) — 7/18/2024 @ 5:59 amWhy would I? Trump IS indeed an existential threat to our democracy.
Dana (fcdf10) — 7/18/2024 @ 7:00 amIs Trump an existential threat? It’s hard to know because it’s hard to decisively know what is for show and what is unhinged. Everyone pretends that they alone know at what line Trump’s act ends and where something else creeps in.
My opinion remains to not test the proposition and hope that good people or our institutional checks will protect us. The President, with his law enforcement and national security powers, has vast room to make consequential moves. I don’t want to find out if a President can unilaterally end NATO or strategically handcuff it. It’s not just a bad idea, but one that Trump seems fixated on. The same with supporting Ukraine. This shouldn’t be a surprise action that we find what we will get only after the election.
Sorry to his enablers, but Trump is unhinged. The fact that he played hide-and-seek with classified documents that the archive was trying to retrieve conveys a problem. His legal people obviously failed to convince him that it was wrong. It’s inconceivable that a President would not do everything in his power to stop the riot on J6. It was simply unknowable whether actions would escalate and lives lost, yet he sit and watched and disregarded his closest aid’s advice. Forget legal or illegal, this is aberrant behavior. This is NOT who you want in charge. It’s disqualifying in ways that Biden’s unwise and Unconstitutional Executive Orders were not. I understand why Biden wanted to help renters though I disagree with what he did — the courts were able to step in. I don’t understand Trump’s action and why he would put congressmen and Capitol police at risk. Again, unhinged.
We can make excuses about the 2020 election changes, but nothing really excuses the Electoral Count mischief…or interfering with the Georgia count….directly by the President! We have to stop twisting facts and drawing false equivalencies. If not criminal, it is behavior designed to stress test our system….and create an existential vibe. There’s nothing worse than the idea that the vote is being stolen or cheated. The suggestion that Biden would do the same is weak sauce. It seems intended to rationalize a bad conclusion.
Whether Trump is existential or not misses that he is unhinged and unfit for the office. He may win, but no one should pretend that they weren’t warned. Don’t give a pyromaniac matches and then be surprised….
AJ_Liberty (d9304e) — 7/18/2024 @ 7:19 amWhat do we know:
A brave fireman died, probably protecting his family.
Something was deeply wrong with the protection Trump was getting, and the excuses offered so far are pathetic
What we don’t know:
Was Trump hit by a bullet or shrapnel.
Why the security for Trump had such obvious holes in it
Appalled (34fc5d) — 7/18/2024 @ 7:58 amI think it was simple as miscommunication between federal and local police. Still, someone should have been on that building with a radio making checks. The fact that there wasn’t means someone should be fired or demoted
AJ_Liberty (d9304e) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:14 amHe better keep his hands off our mailman. We like him.
If any federal employees know how to survive crazy managers, it’s
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:27 ammailmennail carriers.Or he was super nervous about killing a person and that made him shake. A lot of deer hunters miss easy shots for that reason. And this was orders of magnitude more stressful.
The simple explanation for him missing is this:
1. He did not aim for center-of-mass
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:29 am2. A 5 mph crosswind at that distance will deflect a bullet by an inch.
Why would I? Trump IS indeed an existential threat to our democracy.
Then the shooting was justified to some.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:29 amWas Trump hit by a bullet or shrapnel.
We do know. There is a photo of the bullet as it passed him.
The miracle of digital photography and automated “shutters.”
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:32 amMy point about Trump’s “existential threat” is that you cannot simultaneously say that he is one, then say that anyone who claims the shooter was motivated by that is being ridiculous.
If a patriot *knew* that Hitler-reborn was about to become president, why would they shrink from stopping him by any means necessary?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:35 amMann I used to love this blog and all the work you guys have produced over the decades. Hope the best for you all.
G (18c8dc) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:13 amWas the shooter justified?
NJRob (ea73ba) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:27 amI think you over estimate the influence of this forum. I almost certain that PP has no influence beyond those who post here.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:34 amI think Kevin is engaging in the reasoning that, because Trump being an existential threat to democracy would make this shooting justified in the eyes of some, and this shooting is not justified, Trump therefore cannot be an existential threat to democracy.
To me it looks like he’s saying it’s worse to call out an existential threat to democracy than it is to *be* an existential threat to democracy, but that’s just me. 🙂
aphrael (85a691) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:40 am> So, he did this for no reason?
It certainly happens sometimes that there are people who just want to create chaos or get their name in the paper and have no particular motivation beyond that. Is that this guy? we don’t know. But it’s hardly impossible.
aphrael (85a691) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:42 am> Was the shooter justified?
No. We do not solve our political disputes with violence, and opening that door will make all future paths (both the ones in which Trump wins and the ones in which he loses) substantially worse than they would have been if that door were not opened.
Trump does not deserve power but that doesn’t mean it’s ok to kill him.
aphrael (85a691) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:43 amOne can claim that Trump is an existential threat to our democracy while at the same time not believe the attempted assassination was justified. Any assassination of a presidential candidate (or other politician or public figure) is also an existential threat to our democracy. It is obscene to suggest that such actions can be justified. To claim that it is an either/or choice is sophistry, and only seeks to continue the divisions in our country. Those who do suggest that it is an either/or choice want to silence criticism of Trump and his policies.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:45 amHear, hear. Godwin’s Law in operation.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:48 amAny assassination of a presidential candidate (or other politician or public figure) is also an existential threat to our democracy.
I don’t always agree with Rip, but this I agree with wholeheartedly.
What I disagree with is the idea that blaring such a charge from every media outlet will not have influence on unstable people.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 10:04 amSo, I just listened to JD Vance’s speech at the Convention and I’m left with two questions:
1. Why didn’t they nominate this guy for President?
2. Who is this Donald J Trump he talks about? He sounds nothing like the Donald J Trump who was President.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 10:06 am> Why didn’t they nominate this guy for President?
Because they’ve been successfully manipulated by an abusive man into adoring him.
aphrael (85a691) — 7/18/2024 @ 10:08 amDon’t get me wrong. I am NOT saying
“No one should say what they think about Donald Trump” but rather
“It is not ‘silly’ to suggest that someone taking a shot at Donald Trump was influenced by statements that Trump was an existential threat.”
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 10:30 amOne thing about Vance: He knew that Trump hates facial hair and yet he didn’t shave it off. Marco Rubio would have (Marco Rubio would have gotten waxed if he thought it would help).
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 10:39 amI agree that it’s not silly, but so far there is very little evidence that Crooks was motived by partisanship or strong political opinions in his horrible murder attempt.
The most partisan thing he’s done (that we know of yet) is register as as republican, donate 15$ to act blue 4 years ago, and tell one person they were were stupid for supporting Donald Trump.
Time123 (72b63e) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:23 amIt’s not silly to think that someone taking a shot at Trump might be influenced by the belief that he is an existential threat. Sure.
But there’s an awful lot of rhetoric going around saying that those of us who think he’s an existential threat are per se responsible for the assassination attempt *because we openly say what we believe*, and that we should shut up for the good of the country.
aphrael (1797ab) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:28 amThis kid also was looking up the DNC too. It looks like he just wanted to be infamous, Trump had the luck of an event in his back yard, and a crappy security plan.
I wonder how often security does have holes? I’d bet if you were actively trying, and were willing to trade your life, it is probably likely there are opportunities. You can’t both have campaign events and 100% security. This was a collision of willing nutbag and bad planning.
I thought they should have had someone on that building, but there’s that water tower that should have minimally had a few spotters.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:23 pm@50 Cool. So, when Stefanik and Republicans were blamed after the Buffalo massacre, that wasn’t an attempt to make them responsible for the shootings and shut them up? Just trying to understand the rules for Republicans versus the rules for Democrats.
lloyd (5c6b9e) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:33 pmThis is silly. (or dumb, but since I know you’re not dumb I’ll go with silly)
It’s possible for something to be a existential threat and it not justify any/all means to prevent. I can make a case that Russia is a existential threat to our ally Poland. That doesn’t mean we, or Poland are justified in a pre-emptive attack on Russia.
In addition to the severity of the threat there is also the time urgency, the presence of other solutions / mitigations, and the secondary impact of any particular solution.
So in context when Dana, who is generally temperate in her writing and has no history of supporting political violence and a well documented history of condemning it says that Trump is an existential threat it’s unreasonable to assume she’s calling for a violent solution.
You can assert the case that using plain language to describe Trump’s previous acts with respect to our democracy and what they indicate about his likely future acts will inspire violence. (ie. that because Trump attempted to steal the 2020 election through baseless claims fraud and because there’s no reason to believe he has any regrets about the attempt beyond it’s failure his election represents an existential threat to our country) But in this case there hasn’t been any evidence found yet to indicate this shooter was motived by such rhetoric.
But you can’t in good faith imply that Dana is trying to justify or inspire violence when she does so.
Time123 (d97765) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:35 pmLloyd: if you could point me at a position I took at that time which is inconsistent with what i’m saying now, that would be great. Otherwise you’re continuing to try to hold me accountable for the actions and words of others.
aphrael (1797ab) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:40 pm@54 aphrael, in the time it took to write your comment, you could’ve made your opinion clear on that post. If you disagree with it, just say so and move on. Instead, you’re making it about something else, which leads me to believe you agree with it. Feel free to set me straight.
lloyd (5c6b9e) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:46 pmYou’re also basically saying that other people behaving badly justifies the bad behavior i’m criticizing, which is remarkably like the logic of a toddler.
aphrael (1797ab) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:46 pm> If you disagree with it, just say so and move on. Instead, you’re making it about something else, which leads me to believe you agree with it. Feel free to set me straight.
Are you *asking* me what i think or are you asserting that the fact that i’m not commenting on something you’ve put in front of me means I have the view you are asserting that I have?
Yeah, I *can* provide an opinion. But I’m not obligated to — not to you or anyone else — and your assertion that my not doing so means I have a particular view is kinda contemptible.
aphrael (1797ab) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:50 pmLloyd, I’ll jump in. When there’s a clear link between violence and the words of influential leaders, as there was in the case of buffalo massacre, it’s reasonable to discuss how those words may inspire violence. This is especially true when the political speech itself is ugly.
In that case the ‘idea’ was that brown ppl don’t belong in the US, their presence is in some way illegitimate and there’s a threat they will replace white ppl and the shooters manifesto made the link clear.
In this case the idea is that a elected official who unapologetically tried and failed to steal the presidency represents a threat to our system of government and there’s been no evidence found to date that the shooter was motivated by this idea.
Time123 (d97765) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:53 pm@57 It’s contemptible to ask you a question. Got it.
lloyd (5c6b9e) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:53 pmHey Aphrael, what do you think abut the buffalo shooting and do you think that GOP leaders who support ‘the great replacement theory’ helped encourage and motivate the shoorter?
Time123 (d97765) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:54 pmHey lloyd, can you see the substantial differences between that event and this one and do you feel that those differences are important in how we treat it?
Time123 (d97765) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:56 pm@58 “When there’s a clear link between violence and the words of influential leaders, as there was in the case of buffalo massacre, it’s reasonable to discuss how those words may inspire violence. This is especially true when the political speech itself is ugly.”
There was no clear link. He was a racist. That doesn’t mean political speech you and the NYT erroneously considers racist motivated him.
Calling Trump a threat to the Republic is ugly political speech, as is calling his supporters cultists and fascists. The fact that you think it’s true, doesn’t make it less ugly. There is as much a clear link between that speech (and “put a bullseye on Trump”) and the assassination attempt as there is in the Buffalo massacre.
lloyd (5c6b9e) — 7/18/2024 @ 1:04 pmLloyd – it’s not contemptible to ask me a question, it’s contemptible to project onto me an assumption without asking me a question and then insist that your doing so was simply asking me a question.
“I posted a link and you didn’t comment on it so therefore i’m going to conclude that you agree with what I think you think about the link, feel free to disagree” isn’t asking a question.
aphrael (1797ab) — 7/18/2024 @ 1:05 pmaphrael, Question to you at @52:
“So, when Stefanik and Republicans were blamed after the Buffalo massacre, that wasn’t an attempt to make them responsible for the shootings and shut them up?”
Don’t say I didn’t ask you a question
lloyd (5c6b9e) — 7/18/2024 @ 1:08 pm> Hey Aphrael, what do you think abut the buffalo shooting and do you think that GOP leaders who support ‘the great replacement theory’ helped encourage and motivate the shoorter?
Ah! Someone actually *asking* rather than *concluding*. Thank you 🙂
(a) i’d forgotten about the buffalo shooting. If i’d even noticed it; that event happened six weeks or so after the end of my marriage and I wasn’t paying attention to the news.
(b) The shooting was a great tragedy and a disaster, and it was clearly racially motivated.
(c) mass shootings are so common now that they aren’t particularly newsworthy or memorable any more, and that fact testifies to a great sickness in American society which nobody knows how to treat or resolve. my preference would be making it harder for people to get access to guns, but i’ve lost that argument.
(d) the great replacement theory is rank nonsense being peddled by people who are deliberately trying to drum up division and internecine hatred in order to harness it for their own political ends. this kind of killing is *not* their intent, but the kind of hatred needed for this kind of killing to appear reasonable to someone *is* their intent, because that kind of hatred can be used to bind people to them politically. *the individual manipulative politicians involved* share *moral* responsibility, absolutely
(e) but at the same time, the overwhelming majority of the people babbling about the replacement theory *aren’t* trying to be politically manipulative, they are … people who believe the story they’ve been told and are simply repeating it because they believe it. *those* people have no moral responsibility in this scenario at all.
(f) the way to defeat this nonsense idea (the great replacement theory) is not by telling the people repeating it out of belief to shut up for the good of the nation, it’s to persuade them that they’ve been sold nonsense.
(g) so the comparative question really boils down to — do I think the politicians selling the “trump is a threat to the nation” story are being earnest, or do i think they are trying to be cynically manipulative? if the latter, then they bear some moral responsibility — if the former, then I don’t think they do.
(h) from my perspective, the danger from Trump is so clear that I believe everyone saying Trump is a threat are doing so out of earnest belief, not cynical manipulation. but i can understand why lloyd would see it differently — he doesn’t see the threat, so obviously it’s made up nonsense being sold as a cynical manipulative tactic.
aphrael (1797ab) — 7/18/2024 @ 1:13 pmLet’s get real, folks. If Crooks’s phone showed he watched Biden say “put a bullseye on Trump” in a loop 72 hours straight last week, Democrats still wouldn’t be blamed, and nobody would change their rhetoric because it’s about The Truth.
lloyd (5c6b9e) — 7/18/2024 @ 1:20 pm@65 Here’s the drill.
1. When Republicans do it: blame
lloyd (5c6b9e) — 7/18/2024 @ 1:39 pm2. When Democrats do it: nuance
RIP legendary comedian Bob Newhart (94).
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:00 pmAlmost
NJRob (ea73ba) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:04 pmAlmost
Fixed
NJRob (ea73ba) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:04 pmThis kid also was looking up the DNC too.
My guesses, day of, without evidence were:
#4 still seems possible, #1 might be close
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:14 pmJust trying to understand the rules for Republicans versus the rules for Democrats.
And this is really the thing. What seems like rank partisanship to one side always seems like free expression to the other. Interchange as needed.
That poor gored ox.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:17 pmFake news:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:22 pmRIP Lou Dobbs (78).
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:25 pmBut you can’t in good faith imply that Dana is trying to justify or inspire violence when she does so.
No. My objection was to her saying it was “silly” to assert that someone else might think that way. In the immediate aftermath of the shooting, it was not “silly” to think that the rhetoric encouraged the shooter’s action. Even Biden was concerned.
The NY Times reported, day of, that recent polls showed sizable fringes (10% in one direction, 7% in the other) thought political violence was justified in this election.
There are points that can be adequately made (e.g. “Trump tried to overthrow the government”) without saying he’ll kill us all if he gets into office.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:26 pmReminder: American candidates for top offices can reduce the risks to themselves, their protectors, attendees at their events, and bystanders by keeping their rhetoric cool, and chooseing their campaign sites prudently.
Trump does neither. He is free to risk his own safety and life, but he should have some regard for the health and safety of those protectors, attendees, and bystanders.
Jim Miller (606a89) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:27 pmHey Aphrael, what do you think abut the buffalo shooting and do you think that GOP leaders who support ‘the great replacement theory’ helped encourage and motivate the shoorter?
My understanding is that he got his ideas from The Daily Stormer and white supremacists on Discord (this seems a magnet for marginal people).
People have claimed that Trump’s border wall is due to The Great Replacement Theory, but that’s just a propaganda opportunity. More worrisome in Tucker Carlson’s rantings. But I don’t believe that this idea is promoted by prominent Republican politicians. Biden does enough of a job making it seem real with his border policy.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:38 pmRIP legendary comedian Bob Newhart (94).
Sad. He was one of a kind.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:53 pmOne of the greats, Kevin.
Icy (b0ad85) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:59 pm@76: No one is responsible for violence done to them while behaving peaceably. It’s the “short skirt” rationale and it really has no place in any discussion. Even if they are Nazis marching though Skokie.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:00 pmRip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/18/2024 @ 2:22 pm
Created when? Isn’t that the most important fact? Did some effort go into making it look older? Was AI used to create it quickly? What?
News organizations were hit almost immediately after the shooting with posts blaming some Italian.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:03 pmAbe Lincoln Vs. Madison Avenue
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:06 pmYou’ll have to ask the FBI.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:06 pmIt’s absurd that Crooks would have posted in advance, but not left any clue why. He may have had some inkling of what he was going to do but it really does come off as a crime of opportunity.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:15 pm29.
He pushed his wife and daughter down or maybe both daughters.
But he could have ducked too.
But if he had maybe a person in front of him or behind him (I still don’t know which way they were facing) might have been killed instead, or more likely, the bullet would have missed everyone or inflicted a less serious injury.
It’s hard to believe that of 8 bullets fired (it sounded like 3+5) only 3 and a fraction hit anybody. It is more like that the Secret service only counted as hit those people who had to be carried out. Did any news media check the hospitals, or doctors’ offices?
Yes. they were watching him, off and on, since 3 pm.
He wasn’t hit by shrapnel (glass) from a teleprompter like they were saying. Some people wanted it to be that and thought it was an important distinction. We still have no doctors report that would reveal how the upper part of his right ear was cut off. Trump said it felt like a knife.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:26 pmLots of years with no attack.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:27 pmI don’t understand that bit about him turning his head to the right and lifting it up. It seems to me that would put him more in danger, not less, from a bullet that whizzed by to his right.
It seems like an Act of God that he was hit just when he was about to tell a big lie – Trump knows that. he was about to point out a chart. It’s almost safe to say it was a diabolical lie because he’s told others on the same subject. Lying with statistics. Jimmy Carter also had the plug pulled on him in a debate in Philadelphia in 1976 when he was about to tell a big lie. It’s not just the lie – it’s people believing it and voting on that basis because they want to do good for the country. It was just too much. If they want to do bad, God would not interfere.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:33 pmThey say that they took no account of the possibility of a second gunman when they decided it was now safe to evacuate Trump. But all major assassination attempts by gunfire in the United States, except one, that by Puerto Ricans on President Truman in 1950, have been done by single individuals, and been the Puerto Rican attack involved two men in the same place.
Logically so, because anyone would make his best attempt and to have someone acting later is acting in a situation where things have changed and people are on alert. The gain by any plotters would be outweighed by their loss, so if there were two men they would fire at the same time.
The assassination of Lincoln involved several plotters, but each one came to attack a different individual.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:34 pmRip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:06 pm
They’ll say something, of they do, many months from now in some obscure report.
Italian sports journalist Marco Violi, who runs a blog called Roma Giallorossa, had his picture stolen, (it took awhile and a reverse image search to determine of whom the picture really was) but was identified as an imaginary person named “Mark Violets”, who belonged to antifa.
https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.364984T
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:43 pmThe purpose of the great replacement theory is to knock out and prevent a good pro-immigration argument from being used – that it will help maintain Social Security (and if not it can be adjusted to increase the effects) and help take care of old people. Any argument to that effect seems to support the great replacement theory.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 3:47 pmHe better keep his hands off our mailman. We like him.
Not the mailman thing again.
steveg (749597) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:03 pmOld letter drop boxes made the front page. “Trump is removing mail boxes to subvert our Democracy”
A bunch of my neighbors put those virtue signaling manifestos of support for our brave mail carriers on their mail boxes, next to the yard sign proclaiming a bunch of other nincompoopyheadednesses [translated from German]
Or in any of the myriad number of Congressional hearings over the next several months.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:06 pmKevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 10:39 am
No, he put it on, like Jonathan Frakes who played William Riker in Star Trek: The Next Generation who got a beard after the second season. (In the episode Second_Chances
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chances_(Star_Trek:_The_Next_Generation)
The writers made a mistake or maybe they had no choice, but both Rikers had beards.
However, the other Riker was duplicated in a transporter accident eight years before the episode and should not have had a beard!
The writers could have explained it away if they’d thought of it. Maybe Riker had a beard earlier also but shaved it off before he was assigned to the Enterprise.
JD Vance has the beard either because he always anted to have a beard and had reached a level of success so that it didn’t impede him, or because he wanted to get close to Donald Trump Jr. In the hopes that Donald Trump would consider him like a son. If so, it worked.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:08 pmColonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 12:23 pm
We only know two things. He might have been interested in other things but the FBI didn’t publicize it.
But there were two ways Crooks could have thought he could stop Trump. By killing Trump…or by killing Biden! If he was reading the most common left leaning political commentary in which any other Democrat defeats Trump.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:14 pmA lot of the sources are behind the news.
here is some of what we know:
1) His father called police at about 11 pm Saturday night – not before the incident.
2) He could have found out that the rally was going to held Saturday July 13, 2024 on Wednesday July 3. It was published that day by
the Butler Eagle (Most likely he didn’t read it but there could have been other news reports pubished about then. Or he could have found out from emails from the Trump campaign.
3) He is reported to have visited the site of the rally some days before.
4) Crooks visited the Clairton Sportmen’s Club on Friday July 12, according to the New York Post, but the New York Times visited the place and could not find anyone who remembered him ever being there. But that means nothing. The miss by 20 feet describes something that happened while he was in high school. Maybe it was caused by attempting to use some equipment to help him aim.
5) On Saturday morning he bought a 5 foot ladder (which he wound up not using) and ammunition. He also took a bicycle with him, a rangefinder, backpack and a rifle his phone (or two) and a transmitter (whatever that is)
6 At 3 pm he enters the secure area with a rangefinder (regarded as legal personal property) . he is watched until he exits the secure area.
7. Rides his bicycle around until it gets time for Trump to speak. Trump is originally scheduled to speak at 5 pm but spends sometime talking to radio talk show host Mark Levin. Parks his bicycle beneath a tree yards from the building bicycle and walks to the building. Curtis Sliwa points out that he may have concealed his rifle inside the building at some point before the final minutes..
8. At 5:06 Video shows Crooks walking past a building. No rifle.
9. 5:45 Beaver County Emergency services Unit spots Crooks scoping out the roof, takes picture of him (for use by others) and makes a report.
10. A “suspicious person” is identified to the Secret service as a “threat.” A lot of communication is in the clear.
11. Trump takes the stage at 6:05 Also reported
as 6:03
12. Crooks climbs onto the roof with rifle at 6:09 or earlier. Onlookers start screaming at police.
6:10 Police walking around building. Onlookers scream he’s got a gun. Local police officer is hoisted to the roof, spots him, and rifle is aimed at him and he drops down. Secret Service chief of rally security is on the phone with Butler police.
6:11 Crooks fires, 12 seconds (after what?)
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:43 pmhttps://nypost.com/2024/07/18/us-news/trump-gunman-thomas-crooks-used-bike-to-scout-rally
https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-rally-gunman-thomas-matthew-crooks-shooting/story?id=112027831
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:44 pm1) Somebody does things that threaten the Republic (a call to terminate the Constitution, telling Mike Pence that the mob outside the Capitol disagrees with him, telling Mike Pence that he is “too honest”).
2) Somebody else points out how wrong this is.
3) Some nutcase decides to assassinate the person who threatens the Republic.
4) The person pointing out the threat to the Republic is at fault.
Yeah, I don’t think so.
norcal (8f4c08) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:44 pmSomeone upthread asked whether I thought the shooting was justified. First, the fact that they even asked informs me that this is an either/or proposition. Either you don’t think that Trump is an existential threat and therefore the shooting was not his fault. Or you think that Trump is an existential threat, and therefore the shooting is his fault. Silliness. That you even have to ask me the question is not to read what I have written for a long time here regarding political violence. But I’ll help you out: of course, it’s not justified. Never is it justified, no matter who the target is and which side of the political aisle they stand. And never have I implied that it is.
Additionally, regarding Trump being an existential threat: Think about how far he took things with trying to overturn a legitimate election by refusing to commit to honoring the longstanding peaceful transfer of power and pressuring his vice president to overturn the election defeat despite being told repeatedly it was illegal to do so. Now think about how much farther he’ll go if he loses the 2024 election. And if he wins the election and populates critical agencies, departments, and courts with “his people” who are making critical decisions that would/could impact those outcomes in a negative way, who is going to put the brakes on him? Especially when he inevitably pushes the limits of the Constitution? Where will good people turn? And I haven’t even mentioned the immunity ruling, as well as his continued threats of retribution when/if he takes office…
I don’t see how one doesn’t understand him to be an existential threat – this real threat to our democracy.
Dana (b845bc) — 7/18/2024 @ 4:49 pmDana,
More and more I’m understanding what Patterico meant when he said “broken by partisanship”. I see a small contingent of such folks here, and they are prone to misunderstanding you. They are full of grievance and outrage, but they can only criticize the other side, not their side.
Unless one is able to honestly list the pros and cons of both sides, one’s political takes just aren’t that astute.
norcal (8f4c08) — 7/18/2024 @ 5:03 pm“Trump is removing mail boxes to subvert our Democracy”
They pulled those old blue mailboxes because of a mail-stealing exploit involving sticky stuff poured into the slot. It was impossible to police.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 6:07 pmI don’t see how one doesn’t understand him to be an existential threat – this real threat to our democracy.
Because our democracy has stood up to worse and will again. Trump got NOWHERE in his attempt. What makes you think our nation and its institutions are so fragile?
You may think that his goal is to destroy the country and it’s democracy, fine. Does not make it true. Is he willing to use extralegal means to get what he wants? Perhaps, maybe even likely. But good luck with that, the odds are very much not on his side.
The country has survived Jackson, Polk, TR, FDR, LBJ, Nixon — willful men all — and a flipping civil war. I’m sorry if I don’t see the danger, but I don’t.
The biggest danger I see is that he will break things and not have the patience or skill to fix them. He won’t be the first.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 6:24 pmAnd I’ll say this one more time, knowing that it will be ignored:
There is not one adult in this country that needs to be told that Trump and J6 were a bad thing. They’ve made up their mind.
He should have been convicted in the Senate. He wasn’t.
He should have been charged with insurrection. He wasn’t.
He should have been charged with inciting a riot, election fraud, false elector scams, etc, long before the election. He wasn’t.
Accept that. You have no choice really. And if he gets elected, you’ll have to accept that, too. Work with what is, not what should be.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 6:32 pmI’m Christian, and have spent way too much time in Church, so I believe God acts in people’s lives.
Trump’s head movement isn’t seen as coincidence, that movement (the hand of God if I paid attention in Sunday School) the hand of God moved and left his soul on earth, in doing so it also saved his candidacy.
It all happened on an international stage and billions of people have seen it.
But I don’t know the purpose. I believe it was God’s choice was to let Trump continue, but to what end? That remains a mystery.
Obviously I’m already worn out over chatter about anointed this and that.
steveg (749597) — 7/18/2024 @ 6:50 pmThis is going to sound mean, but if anyone can screw up a miracle, squander it, Trump has shown the requisite skills for that in the past.
I’d like to see him take this moment with grace and gratitude, change his life and succeed at whatever God has for him.
Maybe its slow down and enjoy his newfound God, his gracious wife, children, grandchildren and stop popping 300mg of Viagra and banging porn stars.
That might be enough
> And if he gets elected, you’ll have to accept that, too.
Of course i’ll accept that. I’m not Trump, to refuse to accept the decision of the voters.
But I’m convinced it will mean the end of the Republic, and I won’t stop saying that until and unless I’m proven wrong on it.
aphrael (1797ab) — 7/18/2024 @ 6:59 pmInsiders Confirm That Trump’s Speech Tonight Will Include Numerous, Unpredictable, And Randomly Spaced Rapid Head Turns.
lloyd (930c78) — 7/18/2024 @ 7:40 pmOh yeah, it’s like he’s got tourettes.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:09 pmMan, the US must be a real crap hole, this guy says that in 3 years it went from the best place ever to the worst place ever. Why stay, we should all leave and immigrate to our northern neighbor or something, America sounds terrible.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:17 pmHe also just said he’d slash tax receipts by several hundred billion, but said he’d spend many more trillions to support “infrastructure” and manufacturing. Fortify medicare and social security, kind of wondering if those other taxes a bad but his import taxes (tariff) would offset or something.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:30 pmJoe Biden’s immigration policy saved Trump’s life, Trump said it himself.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:37 pmBTW, this speech should shut up the Trump=Hitler banter. He isn’t high energy enough, he doesn’t have the follow through, gumption, willing to invest the effort to be ruler for life. He wants to be Queen Lizzy.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:40 pmUnder Trump, no illegals killed any US citizens…
Jan 21, 2019
Huh, who was president then????
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:44 pmNo wars anywhere under Trump’s presidency. It was a planet of peace.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:45 pmTalking about all the great ideas he got from Orban.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:47 pmGood lord he’s a moron.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 8:52 pmIt’s pretty obvious that Biden’s brain works much better than Trump’s, he’s just a limp noodle.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:04 pmWell…that happened.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:07 pmJD Vance is a firecracker, comparatively.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:12 pmA US presidential candidate just praised Hannibal Lecter, Putin, Orban, and Kim Jong Un.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 9:32 pmI won’t stop saying that until and unless I’m proven wrong on it.
I hope you are. I think that the republic is stronger than any one man. You give him too much agency.
Only two presidents have gone so far as to defy the courts: Jackson and Lincoln, and Lincoln had cause. What Jackson did to the Civilized Tribes was horrific, and it is no coincidence that MTG comes from the area they were evicted from. But it did not end the Republic even then.
I have faith in America’s institutions and ideals. They’ve survived a lot.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 10:44 pmBTW, this speech should shut up the Trump=Hitler banter. He isn’t high energy enough, he doesn’t have the follow through, gumption, willing to invest the effort to be ruler for life. He wants to be Queen Lizzy.
The saving grace is Trump’s laziness. Probably why he hired a COO.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 10:48 pmGood lord he’s a moron.
It’s a contest between ignorant and stupid. Both may win.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 10:49 pmLike I said above, I don’t think this guy has what it takes, he’s too flacid, too dumb, too lazy, to really want to be a dictator, tater bait sure (look it up).
He likes flying around and having people cheer him on and give him money, but he hates whipping votes (but likes to get whipped by magazines, look it up).
So he’s a wannabe monarch, love a gig like Queen Elizabeth’s, likes the pomp, hates the work, loves the perks. Although she actually did some stuff for the first 80 years, and her 20’s weren’t spent in her own private Vietnam (look it up).
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 10:55 pmI was ANGRY during the first hour of that speech, then I realized it was the best of all possible outcomes.
Trump’s prime time prime day lead in speakers, neo-fascist Putin puckerman who doesn’t like the females getting rights, golf pro, band…band…band, Hulkster, a child of a great minister, Trump’s kid with the extra chromosome, MMA man, and a con artist.
Chef’s kiss. If SNL put that together it would have been SciFi.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:01 pmPerfectly said. Three cheers for rationality!
Patterico (487107) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:14 pmFirst obstacle for Trump: The Administrative Procedures Act.
He says that he’ll “end the electric vehicle mandate on day one” but to the extent there is one I don’t think he can. Maybe on day 147, but not on day one.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:19 pm@21 wrong I don’t hate trump if trump wins its better for us leftys then if biden wins. This is terrifying for corporate establishment democrats who know black party activists and left will take over the party.
asset (bc4851) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:20 pm@43 your trying to take the fun out of the internet.
asset (bc4851) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:22 pmI think he’ll defer actual governing to his COO, who isn’t batsh1t crazy whatever else he is. If Trump objects, well, here’s my inbox, have at it….
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:23 pmWhat asset misses is how Trump’s (alleged) platform is for main street, not wall street.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:27 pmWhatever this is, the Sixth Party System which began somewhere between 1972 and 1980, is now truly dead (probably as of 2016). This is uncharted territory.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:28 pmBut only the aggrieved mainstreet. Since 1972ish, post Vietnam at least, there’s been a bit of grievance, a bit of hope. Never before has it been vengeance, eradication, and saying that America isn’t an idea, it’s a man.
I get it that the libs have ruined the democratic party with triangulation and radicalization. But this MAGA party told them to hold their beer, and dialed it up to 11 hundred. Conservatism is fundamentally pragmatic, evidence based, respecting tradition and the constitution, MAGA ain’t that. And this convention just circled the fact with a neon marker that this isn’t the GOP, it isn’t conservative, at all, and has completely swallowed the idea that America would be better off with an Iran styled theocratic strong man leader. Not that the theocracy bears much resemblance to Christianity, but it’s all in support of the new messiah.
They took “Thou shalt have no other gods before me.” and forgot who the me it’s referring.
So, never-ever-ever-no-effing-way-Trump, never again.
And no, I’m not advocating popping his grape, just vote. I’ll be very sad if he wins by 2 points and we get 10M fewer folks actually turning out, and that is the direction we’re going. We might not get the government you want, but we’ll get the one we deserve.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/18/2024 @ 11:42 pm@steveg@103 I can’t believe that. If I believe that then I also have to believe that God is deliberately choosing for other people to die. That my friend in 6th grade died of cancer because God wanted her dead. That my high school classmate was murdered in college because God deliberately chose not to save her. That a former coworker died in his mid-40s, leaving his two children without a father, because God chose that. There isn’t a way to believe God is deliberately saving people without also believing He is deliberately choosing not to save people.
Nic (120c94) — 7/19/2024 @ 12:23 amIt was karma, Nic. If the Democrats hadn’t brought insanity to the border, Trump wouldn’t be holding that paper in his hands and wouldn’t have turned his head to look at it. Imagine that. Border chaos causes the End Of The Republic, just like we’ve been saying it would.
lloyd (ecd2bb) — 7/19/2024 @ 6:33 amThat’s not real. That’s hypothetical in the world as you want it to be, where this was clearly motivated by partisan hate with a clear link back things the democrats have said.
In the real world we haven’t found much evidence of his political views. He didn’t spend a lot of time online, he’s been described by those that knew him as very conservative but said a Hispanic voting for Trump was stupid. He gave 15$ to act blue in 2020 after Biden was elected and is a registered republican.
If you want to be real you should interact with the facts as they’re currently known to be, and not as you wish them to be.
Time123 (f7c35f) — 7/19/2024 @ 6:58 amBut at this point it doesn’t appear the shooter was a Democrat. So you need to find another story to tell yourself.
Time123 (f7c35f) — 7/19/2024 @ 6:59 amTime123, looks like my comment clearly went over your head.
Do you agree with the FBI that the softball shooting was “suicide by cop”? Answer this, and maybe you’ll understand the point I was making.
lloyd (ecd2bb) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:01 am@135 “But at this point it doesn’t appear the shooter was a Democrat. So you need to find another story to tell yourself.”
Keep making it about the shooter, when you know it’s about rhetoric, as it is whenever Republicans get blamed.
lloyd (ecd2bb) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:14 amWhat this is all about: Nevertrump wants their ad hominem toys back because they have nothing else to play with.
lloyd (ecd2bb) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:16 am@104
So the current President trying to (and did!) defy the Supreme Court get’s no mention of trying to end the Republic?
whembly (477db6) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:17 am@137, I think the nut who shot Scalice was a mentally unstable man, who was motivated by rhetoric from the left (sanders especially) and was trying trying to end his life in a blaze of violence. Hold space in your head for more then one thing to be true at a time.
Time123 (867cd9) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:23 am@137, I think making the shooting of Trump about the shooter is a pretty reasonable approach.
Time123 (867cd9) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:24 am@139, what case are you talking about specifically?
Time123 (867cd9) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:29 am@141 “I think making the shooting of Trump about the shooter is a pretty reasonable approach.”
Ah, ok. A revision:
When Republicans do it: it’s about rhetoric
When Democrats do it: it’s about the shooter
Got it.
lloyd (ecd2bb) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:45 am@140 I’ll take that as a “No”
lloyd (ecd2bb) — 7/19/2024 @ 7:46 amI’ll be very sad if he wins by 2 points and we get 10M fewer folks actually turning out, and that is the direction we’re going.
Given the extreme measures used in 2020 to make it easier to vote (the total was up 20 million, turnout 79%), I actually expect the vote total to be lower this year. It almost has to be.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:16 amThere isn’t a way to believe God is deliberately saving people without also believing He is deliberately choosing not to save people.
Indeed. This aspect of religiosity has always bothered me. I don’t pray for people to get well because of this. Instead I pray for them to find the power to get through their illness, because that’s all that my God offers me.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:20 amthe nut who shot Scalice was a mentally unstable man, who was motivated by rhetoric from the left
Anyone who does these things IS mentally unstable. Oswald, Chapman, Hinkley, Bremer, etc. They can be motivated by anything, but it’s usually a reason as crazy as they are. What were Charles Whitman’s reasons, other than a sizable brain tumor?
There have been ideological killers, of course: Ray, Sirhan, Booth. But it does not seem to be the norm here.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:31 amLloyd, you keep ignoring the fact that at this point we don’t have reason to believe the shooter was motivated by the rhetoric.
If there’s reason to believe the shooter was motivated by rhetoric, bullying, or whatever it’s appropriate to talk about that. In this case we haven’t found that evidence. In the case of the buffalo shooter there was considerable overlap between what he said was his motivation and the Rhetoric of MAGA.
Time123 (867cd9) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:32 amI think that lloyd’s point is that the shooter could not possibly have been unaware of the rhetoric and even if his motivation was fame or rebellion or God-told-him-to, it would have been a factor.
But of course the same could be said about rhetoric from the right about Biden.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:39 am@148 There was considerable overlap with the softball shooter, but we got a wall of nuance then as we do now in your @140. We got knee jerk blame in the Buffalo shooting.
We’re going to play this game of looking for overlap in the Butler shooting, as if it matters. when we know it won’t. Sorry, this is just keeping it real.
lloyd (f7a9e3) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:41 amJust catching up on this thread and love what aphrael said:
I don’t know anyone who opposes Trump that would react any differently. Im not aware of any self-identified NecerTrumpers saying that they would react to another Trump presidency like Trump (and his sycophants at the Capitol ) did. They respect rule of law and our historic traditions and Constitutional admonitions that would include a peaceful transfer of power. But reacting correctly and lawfully to his presidency does not mean that the threat that his threat to democracy no longer exists.
Dana (c11f64) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:42 amI do not think it is wrong to suggest that people dial back the rhetoric anyway. It really has gotten extreme. Despite some of their actions, it is unlikely that Trump will overthrow constitutional order and it is unlikely that the Democrats will replace white people with brown ones.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:42 amBecause most Americans probably didn’t know what Jackson was doing (given the lack of mass communication) and if they did, they would have approved.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:44 amBecause most Americans probably didn’t know what Jackson was doing (given the lack of mass communication) and if they did, they would have approved.
There were newspapers and such and there was a Supreme Court case to give it visibility.
But that wasn’t my point; it was that even though Jackson told the Supremes to stick it, the Republic itself did not fail.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 8:51 am@151 Nobody in that J6 crowd abused FISA powers. Nobody in that crowd executed on an “insurance policy” under cover of the administrative state. Nobody in that crowd shopped a salacious dossier around and received confidential informant status by the FBI. Reasonable people should fear Nevertrump more than a shaman.
lloyd (905a88) — 7/19/2024 @ 9:18 amTurnout in 2020 was far less than 79%, more like 66% of the voting eligible population. Of course, the population of eligible voters will increase due to population growth as teens turn 18 each year since 2016 and new citizens become eligible to vote, for example between 2016 and 2020 the voting eligible population increased by 8.3 million. And turnout also depends on voter interest (turnout was 59% in 2016.)
Here is a chart with voting turnout statistics for presidential elections 1828-2016.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 7/19/2024 @ 9:18 amBrokers should set up some sort of fiduciary scheme so people can lock all of their assets, investments, income, and tax burdens somewhere In time before markets can claim that MAGA has altered financial trajectories (which may already be happening).
Then, until acceptance that one has been proven wrong, that person will have no gain or loss attributable to Trump.
I, for one, certainly would not want to prosper off of evil.
BuDuh (e2f48e) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:01 amFor example, if gas prices drop your fiduciary would be required to collect from you the higher number from a pre-Trump era.
BuDuh (e2f48e) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:03 am@142
Uh… the school loan stuff and the rent moratorium to start…
whembly (477db6) — 7/19/2024 @ 10:04 amTurnout in 2020 was far less than 79%, more like 66% of the voting eligible population
As normally measured, turnout is percentage of registered voters as only they can vote. See Dave Leip’s Election Atlas
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:29 amTurnout was more than 5% higher even among the voting eligible population compared to 2016.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/19/2024 @ 11:31 amCrooks made reservation to attend the rally July 7; visited the site a few days later: asked fir Saturday off work telling them he had something important to do.
Parents were repeatedly texting his phone asking where he was from 1 pm till past the time he was dead, it seems.
The last thing he used his phone for was to view pornography,
Can an AR-15 be hidden in a backpack?
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 7/21/2024 @ 11:57 amMichelle Obama announces an exploratory campaign.
Not what any of us expected.
Dustin (d3acaa) — 7/21/2024 @ 12:00 pmYou definitely can break the lower and upper apart in an AR to fit a backpack. I have one like that in my trunk about 100% of the time. It’s 2 pins and takes about 15 seconds.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/21/2024 @ 12:07 pmMike has another good video.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/21/2024 @ 2:17 pm165 Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 7/21/2024 @ 12:07 pm
The video at #166 shows a backpack – albeit a large backpack that can contain the two parts of the AR-15 model said to be used. At 19:35 or so.
Also Crooks hi the backpack and maybe the ladder (the date it was purchased may be wrong) for several days along the road near where he lived.(according to a newspaper article partially seen on the video at 166.The man called police but the article is cut off, so we don’t know what happened afer that.,/
His father may have also called police between 1pm and 6pm. Presumably he had also called the shooting range and the place where he worked.
The drone he flew over the site on July 13 was probably not the first time he flew a drone over it. It was pre-programmed.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/22/2024 @ 1:40 pmThe last thing he did may not have been pornography because he saved a still of a live feed of the site timestamped at 6:01 just before Trump went on to the stage.
There are 4.5 terabytes of material they are sifting through – from two phones, a laptop and USB drives had at home. Initially they only went through one cellphone.
He graduated with an engineering degree from Community College of Allegany County and was planning to continue his education at Robert Morris University which had offered him a scholarship. The school confirmed he was planning to attend.
HE had taken classes on things like physics and statics (?)
He somehow ordered by mail things marked hazardous material.
He compartmentalized his life. At school, he never talked about anything but classwork (he used to help other students and his knowledge or ability impressed them) and joined a math book club. A friend from the book club tried to bring up political topics. He spoke little on that, giving moderate but slightly right wing views. Few of his friends and acquaintances knew of his shooting skills.
He helped his older sister, who is registered as a Libertarian, like their father, move not long ago. His mother, Mary, is a registered Democrat and is blind. He himself was a registered Republican (as I said Pennsylvania has closed primaries) So he may have had an above average interest in politics.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/22/2024 @ 2:03 pmA possible explanation given for putting counter snipers inside a building (and the buildings may have been connected) is that that is a military tactic. In urban warfare you don’t want your snipers to be seen because they are targets. In police or protective work, visible snipers deter and they are not, or shouldn’t be expected to be, the target the gunman is interested in.
Choosing to stay indoors could either be the result of the training the snipers had received (which may have been in the military) or the result of the alert about Iran which may have caused them to conjure up images of multiple snipers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Crook may have fired off only 3 shots. The next two may have been from local or state police from near the building where Crooks was (you can determine the distance by measuring the time between the sound of the bullet travelling at supersonic speed and the sound of the rifle firing) The next two may have come from different Secret Service or other snipers. The 8th killed him.
Crooks worked as a dietician’s aid at a nursing home.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/22/2024 @ 2:16 pmCheatle has resigned.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/23/us/politics/cheatle-secret-service-director-resigns.html
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/23/2024 @ 9:33 amHer opening statement yesterday was leaked to several left leaning news organizations, like one associated with Politico, before it was delivered to the committee, and when she was asked about it, she said she had no idea how that happened.
I am sure she doesn’t but that indicates a problem
She must have had people working for her who were not being honest with her. She was too cautious in her testimony, apparently now not being sure of almost anything.
And she should not have believed that sloped roof explanation. (either known enough not to believe or consulted more people) In fact, she was unsure about it when she gave it.
It’s not that she didn’t know enough – it is that she didn’t discover she was being lied to or misled – this was probably not the first time also – and she didn’t know how to ferret out the truth.
(And the idea of seeming to need to wait 60 days before you fix things?!)
She was altogether too trusting.
(of her subordinates some of whom it is clear did not deserve to be trusted.)
But she needs to be replaced only by the right kind of person.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/23/2024 @ 2:53 pmAs I said elsewhere, this was like NASA with the destruction of the space shuttle’s Challenger in 1986 and Columbia in 2003.
In those cases nobody plotted the deaths of any of the astronauts, but there was stupidity and complaisance and routine and a don’t-rock-the-boat philosophy and coverup of incompetence — and meanwhile, excess worry about some things while total ignoring of other things.
This bears a lot of similarities to the destruction of the space shuttles I think.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/23/2024 @ 2:57 pmAlso from the video linked at 165:
The local traffic policemen who climbed onto the roof to check the story that people were telling them about a man with a rifle on a roof (apparently not really believing it because they had no plan of what to do if such a man was indeed there, had no ladder. They looked for the lowest point on the roof and one man climbed on top of the other. The top man got his head (and his hands) above the bottom of the roof, and saw the gunman, who pointed his gun at him. He dropped down (as a matter of fact fell 8 feet and injured himself)
That probably caused Crooks to fire almost immediately because he knew he would not be left alone for very long.
As for how he got his tactical ideas – he played video games! A person can get lots of idea from video games – and maybe also some from watching some YouTube channels like Demolition Ranch, which according to the Wall Street Journal a week ago has videos “about firearms, demolition and other topics.”
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/23/2024 @ 3:08 pmMore on this today from FBI Director Wray:
Kevin M (a9545f) — 7/24/2024 @ 10:24 amThe plot apparently doesn’t go back further than the date the rally was announced: July 3. He registered for the rally July 7, and visited the site about a week before the event.
Full sentence searches, as is common but not necessary. Google only uses keywords, I think. Did he discover he go. Oswald had a different rifle. he was successful because Kennedy’sdriver slowed down instead of, as they are now instructed, speeding up. The car JFK was in didn’t change direction so Oswald did not have to change his aim. He just got more accurate with each shot. The first shot missed the president’s car entirely. The second shot was the “magic bullet” that went through Connally and would (I never heard it said but it sounds likely) have paralyzed Kennedy if he had lived. The third shot ho him in the head. But Crooks didn’t learn all that.
So that’s why he had the range finder? To use it to determine if he was close enough? Was he just barely close enough, according to his lights?
It’s previously been written July 7. For that matter, the ladder is said to have been bought the same day as the shooting and also the day before. And he didn’t use it.
The ladder (only 5 feet long) has also been said to have lain on the side of the road near his home for several days, along with the backpack (with perhaps something hidden inside the backpack?) but I don’t know whether that is true.
We sort of heard that. The first time was just for an overview. He lived about one hour’s drive away.
That’s new. That fits with the idea that he was putting the plot together as he was carrying it out. As the saying goes, building the plane as he was flying it.
That’s new. Was it a legally recorded purchase or informal, just between them?
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/24/2024 @ 2:21 pmGoogle search request by Crooks on his laptop a week before the shooting:
“How far away was Oswald from Kennedy?”
No, he was not close enough. He searched, got the answer, found he would not be that close, and that did not deter him.
According to the New York Post Oswald was about 88 yards away when he shot from the Texas School Book Depository. Crooks was something like 130 yards to 148 yards away (accounts vary)
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/25/2024 @ 1:17 pmThere was an issue about whether the Trump campaign asked for extra security and was denied it.
At first the Secret Service said no, then they said yes, but that was at previous events and as for this event, security was ramped up more than originally scheduled because of the report about Iran’s goals.
The problem with this is that the extra security consisted mainly of more magnetometers and maybe bomb sniffing dogs.
Having people go two or three times through a magnetometer and be passed more than once by bomb sniffing dogs doesn’t add much to security unless you’re guarding against someone guarding an outer perimeter slipping up. And say checking credentials would add little except giving bad guys less chance to plan – that is worth something though. The less of an advance announcement an event has the better. Crooks had 10 days.
They also added at Butler two or more counter snipers, including Pennsylvania ones, except they were looking into the perimeter and not outside of it.
Later the Secret Service asked the Trump campaign not to hold any more outdoor events (because indoor events require much less security because in that case they mostly only need to guard the entrances, and possibly windows) and the Trump campaign declined to do so, but now they relented. It seems the better part of wisdom.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/25/2024 @ 3:02 pmIn addition to the other things, Crooks had a transmitter that could have been used to trigger a device. However it wasn’t working;
https://nypost.com/2024/07/24/us-news/fbi-director-confirms-thomas-matthew-crooks-flew-drone-that-livestreamed-footage-hours-before-rally
The explosives also apparently were not set up to detonate but the FBI Director said that didn’t mean that they weren’t dangerous.
He was building the plane as he was flying it.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 7/26/2024 @ 2:02 pm