Trump Hush Money Trial Open Thread (UPDATED)
[guest post by Dana]
This is the second day of jury deliberations in the Trump hush money case. Consider this an open thread to discuss anything and everything to do with the courtroom drama while we await the jury’s return.
From Trump, after leaving the courtroom yesterday:
I DON’T EVEN KNOW WHAT THE CHARGES ARE IN THIS RIGGED CASE—I AM ENTITLED TO SPECIFICITY JUST LIKE ANYONE ELSE. THERE IS NO CRIME!
Maybe he should have done less sleeping and more listening while in the courtroom, eh?
UPDATE: The jury finds Trump guilty on all 34 felony charges.
The convicted felon to reporters after the verdict was read and court was dismissed:
I am an innocent man…this was a rigged case…
Same’ol, same ‘ol…
—Dana
Hello.
Dana (8e902f) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:34 amEmphasis in original.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:44 amIt is, officially, on the record, per the prosecutor’s theory of the case, and per the judge’s instructions, a “he’s guilty of something” case. So if Trump doesn’t know what that something is, nobody does.
A word to the wise in Manhattan. Do not throw out your kitchen trash. You could be charged with tampering with evidence of a crime. “What crime?” I hear you ask. I don’t know. What crime could you have committed?
nk (8691d3) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:46 amTrump must have not read the indictment.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 10:00 am@2 “Both the prosecution and the defense are satisfied that they were able to impanel an impartial jury of Trump’s peers.”
An absolutely unsupported claim. The defense has no option but accept the jury as it is, just as they must accept a judge biased against Republicans. Drawn from a pool which voted 90% against Trump in 2020, there is no rational argument that the jury is impartial. Probability is a thing.
lloyd (7badfd) — 5/30/2024 @ 10:02 amTrump’s defense lawyers (and the prosecution) had up to 10 preemptory challenges each to remove any potential jurors they had objections from the panel. Both sides used all of their challenges. They also could make an unlimited number of requests to the judge to strike a juror for cause, though the judge ruled that not liking Trump’s persona is not enough to remove someone.
Both sides got some jurors they wanted and some they don’t. That’s the way jury selection works.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 10:22 am@2 “The Biden administration stayed far away from the case and never gave even the appearance of interference”
The Biden administration thought it was a great idea to send their goodwill ambassador Robert DeNiro to the courthouse to deliver a bunch of F-ck Yous.
lloyd (b5c608) — 5/30/2024 @ 10:28 am@6 Probability is hard.
lloyd (7badfd) — 5/30/2024 @ 10:35 amSurprised it’s taking this long.
I still think they’re going to convict.
whembly (86df54) — 5/30/2024 @ 11:41 amlloyd, One of the lawyers her can correct me but IIUC the requirement isn’t a jury free from bias. It’s a Jury that render a verdict based on the facts presented. So it’s not necessary that they have no opinions about him at all, it’s necessary that they be able to put those opinions aside and render a verdict based on the evidence presented. What don’t you get about that?
Time123 (fbbaff) — 5/30/2024 @ 12:44 pmRip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:44 am
I said yesterday, before it went to the jury, 52 percent for an acquittal, 30 percent for a hung jury, and 20 percent for a conviction. I expected it to take long, and if it goes on into next week, the odds of an acquittal go up.
I also said earlier that it depends on the judge’s instructions, and if he gets convicted it’ll be reversed on the grounds that the instructions were wrong,
My impression, from what little I read and heard, is that the arguments that Trump’s defense counsel made weren’t strong and they focused mostly on defending Trump for responsibility for the record keeping and on Michael Cohen being a repetitive liar. Even there they gave him personal motives for lying, including his stated desire for revenge (also a lie) but I think it is basically that he is stuck with his story, (which didn’t help him stay out of prison)
I don’t know if all the things pointing to Trump not being guilty (like his refusal to approve the payment of Stormy Daniels in advance) made its way into the trial record, but if the jury thinks and thinks about it, they’ll find him not guilty.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:00 pmTypo: Correct is: I said yesterday, before it went to the jury, 50 percent for an acquittal, 30 percent for a hung jury, and 20 percent for a conviction.
It’ll reach 52% if the jury is still deliberating Friday afternoon, and 60% by Monday. The odds of a hung jury are less than that of an acquittal.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:02 pmI will be shocked if they convict. I expect a verdict tomorrow.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:04 pmA word to the wise in Manhattan. Do not throw out your kitchen trash. You could be charged with tampering with evidence of a crime. “What crime?” I hear you ask. I don’t know. What crime could you have committed?
God help you if you enter “party favors” into Quicken after spending the money on cocaine.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:06 pmTrump must have not read the indictment.
The underlying crime is not in the indictment, or at least is not limited to what is in the indictment.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:07 pm@10 Did I argue there was any violation of the law or some legal guideline? You’re responding to a point I didn’t make. The assertion was that the defense was “satisfied” that they were “able to impanel an impartial jury of Trump’s peers.” There is nothing to support that. Rip himself points to a juror that the defense sought to exclude and was denied, and they exhausted their requests to exclude. It hardly appears they are satisfied, nor should they be given the political leanings of the venue. What don’t you get about that?
lloyd (0b72bf) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:09 pmA conviction on all counts, or an acquittal on all counts, would take no time at all. It’s when you get into a long deliberation that you get split verdicts, partial hangs, etc. A hung jury on all counts would mean that one of more jurors isn’t listening to the others.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:11 pmSo, it comes to Trump that the jury is split 11-1 on all counts and will he accept the 11 as unanimous? IF he agrees does he waive his right to appeal? If so, based on jury makeup or all appeals?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:14 pmI’m explaining what “impartial” means in this context.
Time123 (aec009) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:35 pmThe jury has a verdict. They are preparing the paperwork so it can be announced.
BuDuh (4214e4) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:41 pmKevin, I hope he’s acquitted, or the jury hangs. As I’ve said before my ideal outcome is his resounding defeat and a widespread rejection of his noxious movement.
But these jurors know who he is. They’re not stupid, how they vote is a huge deal and they undoubtedly know they need to get it right. I don’t expect that to be fast. The charges are shaky but the prosecution presented good evidence. That makes for a tough decision.
Time123 (aec009) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:43 pmWhether or not Trump is convicted, that is unlikely to happen. Trumpism permeates the Republican Party.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:57 pmYup. Here comes the conviction.
Just waiting to see if the judge is going to put Trump in jail, set bail/house arrest…
whembly (86df54) — 5/30/2024 @ 1:57 pmAny sentencing won’t happen for several weeks.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:02 pmGUILTY. I’m guilty of thinking this would extend into Friday.
AJ_Liberty (60652c) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:04 pmSince Trump was released on his own OR, I doubt there would be any bail pending appeal.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:04 pmSince Trump was released on OR, I doubt there would be any bail before sentencing.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:05 pmkarma
AJ_Liberty (60652c) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:08 pmTrump guilty on all counts.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:08 pmToldya.
Now onto appeals.
Or, god forbid, redstate prosecutions starts going after Democrats…
whembly (86df54) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:12 pmAs long as Democrats have committed crimes in red state jurisdictions, I have no problem with that.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:14 pmJurors to appear on CNN or MSNBC in three, two, one……..
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:16 pmWhen does the gag order end?
BuDuh (b32675) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:18 pmWhen did it start?
Sarcasm aside, it should be vacated since the trial has ended.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:19 pm@30 You’ll regret this, and you may regret this a lot sooner than you think.
-Mitch McConnell
whembly (86df54) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:19 pmGuilty on all 34 counts. Post updated.
Dana (8e902f) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:19 pmThe commie left and their allies get to tar the opponents accordingly.
laurventy beria would be proud.
NJRob (a4df73) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:24 pmTodd Blanche asks the court for sentencing to take place in mid to late July.
Sentencing is set for July 11 at 10 a.m. That will put sentencing four days before the beginning of the Republican National Convention, at which Trump is expected to receive the party’s presidential nomination.
As expected, Trump will have to receive a probation report, as is standard in state court. That report typically takes four to six weeks.
The judge excuses the parties, but not before asking about Trump’s bail status. He then releases him on his own recognizance. Trump leaves the courtroom, shaking his son Eric’s hand as he departs. He holds his jaw strong as he walks out.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:24 pmI think Trump is the big winner here
steveg (a650c5) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:28 pmI think the gag order ends when the jury reaches a verdict The trial is then over.
If mistrial is declared, I don’t know if it continues unless a no prosecution decision is made, or if it would have to be requested and issued again. And for that matter if anything at all continues. Maybe he has to plead guilty or not guilty again should the prosecution choose to proceed.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:29 pmSo, Nikki Haley please.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:34 pmHe’s been an adjudicated fraud for years, now he’s a criminal fraud.
Paul Montagu (1e8339) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:36 pmIf this was the weakest of the four cases, then it doesn’t augur well for Trump if/when the upcoming trials happen.
Trump should get about the same amount of time as Cohen got. Not sure where he’d serve though. Logistics probably make it awfully hard to put a former pres in prison with a secret service detail, so house arrest with a prisoners access to internet/socials/phone etc.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:37 pmThe Fed charges on the docs case are more explicit.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:38 pmSource
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:38 pmI hope the jurors have protection details
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:39 pmWhat, becoming VP to a convicted felon? She certainly won’t be nominated for President by a convention hall full of Trump delegates.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:40 pmAt the GOP convention, replace him. The process exists.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:41 pmTrump NY trial transcripts:
https://pdfs.nycourts.gov/PeopleVs.DTrump-71543/transcripts/
The judge’s instructions are still not available. The closing arguments are the latest available:
https://pdfs.nycourts.gov/PeopleVs.DTrump-71543/transcripts/5-28-2024/
You can only see one page at a time and have to keep on clicking on Next to see the next page.
Had Trump been found not guilty, the instructions would never have become available, except independently or maybe through the Internet archive but each page would have had to be saved separately, and what was available would have been removed.
The New York Times transcripts are better (although behind a paywall) and you can see a whole day at a time and search therefore for some text.
Page containing links to all days:
https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-hush-money-trial-transcripts.html
Page containing the closing arguments May 28:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/30/nyregion/trump-hush-money-trial-transcript-may-28.html
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:41 pmI
He apparently doesn’t feel that way.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:46 pm@45 The jurors are anonymous, Klink, as is their party affiliation. All to keep them safe, wink wink.
lloyd (0b72bf) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:49 pmColonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:41 pm At the GOP convention, replace him. The process exists.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:50 pmWhembly,
it’s beyond sad that our nation has fallen into the state it has. How long do you think before it gets worse and it will get worse?
NJRob (a4df73) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:50 pmWhy would Trump delegates want to replace Trump? The convention will be the biggest group in one room of Trump’s true believers.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:56 pmAlvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, will hold a news conference at 6:30 to discuss the verdict.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:59 pmYou can read the 34 charges here.
Dana (f27dce) — 5/30/2024 @ 2:59 pm@38
How so?
whembly (86df54) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:06 pm@53
Yeup.
The line has been crossed.
It’s up to AGs in Republican states to start prepping cases against their political rivals. Make Democrats live by the new rules until they beg for mercy.
This case will likely be appealed under numerous rationales… but, won’t be fully adjudicated till after the election.
Which is exactly the plan by this partisan prosecution team.
whembly (86df54) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:12 pmUntil they start appearing on teevee.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:17 pmTrump’s re-election is now assured. It won’t convince his supporters of a thing. It won’t change the minds of Democrats and #NeverTrump. But anyone who was on the fence is now off of it, and possibly pretty pissed off that the Law can be used in this way to try to affect a presidential election.
This isn’t the kind of serious case that should be brought against a presidential candidate. At least not in this country. The documents case, the J6 case, the GA case, yeah, sure. But this is just sophistry. Sure, the other cases are delayed, mostly due to stupidity on the part of the prosecutors and/or DoJ foot-dragging.
But that is no reason to laud a proxy cased of trumped up crap, nor a judge who allowed testimony that should have been out-of-bounds (such as Cohen having pleaded guilty to a related charge and the judge compounding that by saying he was Trump’s accomplice in that crime).
My resistance to voting for Trump is ebbing. I think I’m not alone in that.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:38 pmhttps://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4694907-senate-republicans-trump-convictions/
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:44 pmThis got misplaced in the above:
–Bill Cassidy
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:45 pmAnd here’s the real takeaway for Trump’s supporters:
Would a system that used this kind of prosecution to “get” Trump be adverse to a bit of ballot-box stealing if they thought they could get away with it?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:47 pmSo, Nikki Haley please.
I will vote for her on Tuesday. I would have said she would do well in New Mexico, where even Republican candidates try not to mention the bad orange man, but now I’m not so sure.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:49 pmHe shouldn’t have denied that he ever had a tryst with Stormy Daniels and his lawyer shouldn’t have mentioned that. I suppose he did it because Trump insisted.
And part of the closing argument was that the business records ere correct. Michael Cohen was his lawyer and he did bill him and he even did some things for which he did not get any other pay and it is possible to overpay lawyers. But he should have acknowledged that it was a sweetheart deal – but said that even though it was, Michael Cohen was being paid for what he was doing now. If they agreed it was a retainer, that’s what it was. Like someone deciding to pay someone more because he had lost money. That’s as far as he should have that argument.
But that was barred by the statute of limitations. They were right here. And there was clear responsibility for the way the payments to MC were booked.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:49 pmBill Cassidy is wrong.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:50 pmTrump should get about the same amount of time as Cohen got. Not sure where he’d serve though. Logistics probably make it awfully hard to put a former pres in prison with a secret service detail, so house arrest with a prisoners access to internet/socials/phone etc.
Any sentence that interferes with a presidential campaign would be a bridge too far. I suspect it would create massive civil disorder.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:50 pmBill Cassidy is wrong.
Rip Murdock is often wrong.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:51 pmI’m not surprised.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:51 pmOh FFS, Trump did it. You know he did it, we know he did it, Trump’s massively expensive defense couldn’t convince the jury to even take it out a week for 34 charges.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:53 pmReports are that Trump’s campaign donation site is crashing.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:56 pmOh FFS, Trump did it. You know he did it, we know he did it,
1) I don’t care, these charges were BS to begin with.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 3:59 pm2) The bar for prosecuting former presidents now becomes “whatever.”
3) There is a presidential campaign going on and this is an “own goal”; Trump’s re-election is now certain.
So what if I’m “often” wrong? It is irrelevant in this case as to why Bill Cassidy is wrong in this case. Cassidy is wrong that this case didn’t depend on “enforcing” the Federal Election Campaign Act, in fact Trump wasn’t charged with violating the Act, so how could this case be about enforcing it? FECA was one of three possible violations that Trump could have hide his payments from, there is also a violation of NY state election law or tax law. You frequently change the subject or move the goal posts.
BTW, who cares what the Senator from Louisiana says?
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:00 pmTrump’s defense team couldn’t convince 12 Democrats. So incompetent.
lloyd (78fb9a) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:01 pmAs of tomorrow, any Republican that wants to remain in politics will have to denounce this verdict.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:02 pmAs it should be-once they leave the Oval Office they’re nothing special. They don’t become saints.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:02 pmFECA was one of three possible violations that Trump could have hide his payments from
Do you ever read what you write? Loosey-goosey law does not enhance the image of the Law one little bit.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:03 pmThe jury didn’t agree
No, since you don’t care that he did it, seems a weird thing. He did it, was convicted of it. Don’t do the crime if you can’t do the time. If you can find this on Biden, sure go after him, then you have to convince a jury that you have evidense.
For some reason, I don’t think getting convicted of paying illegal hush money to a porn star for sex is a positive.
He didn’t do a thing wrong, for any of the things, he’s completely innocent. He’s also on the hook for $600M in penalties in the other already closed cases. He’s got 60 other charges pending and so far he’s lost pretty much everything so far.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:05 pmAs it should be-once they leave the Oval Office they’re nothing special. They don’t become saints.
No, they just used to get the thanks of a grateful nation and a generous retirement. Everything changes now.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:06 pmDon’t do the crime if you can’t do the time
There is no one you know in this life who has not done worse. Did you ever smoke pot?
This was a crime that was found to GET Trump. Whatever it took.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:07 pmTry today:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:07 pmGOP should replace him at the convention with Nikki. That would guarantee a win, she’d get my vote, Trump never will.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:07 pmFine with me.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:08 pmShe certainly won’t be nominated for President by a convention hall full of Trump delegates.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:09 pmSmoking pot is legal in NY. This isn’t, and no, I haven’t done worse, anyone I know that has done worse had serious consequences.
Cohen was his co-conspirator in this and he went to jail for it already.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:09 pmFor some reason, I don’t think getting convicted of paying illegal hush money to a porn star for sex is a positive.
As I said, this will not move #NeverTrump or Democrats. You just don’t get it. It’s not about that at all, it’s about abuse of authority by the State of NY.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:09 pmI think the reason Trump agreed to doing the reimbursement of Michael Cohen the way he did was to keep the non disclosure agreement tightly held.
And the reason he paid him so much at all was that he (or Allen Allen Weisselberg) negotiated an agreement with Michael Cohen that wwould satisfy him and that may have been to guarantee his silence.
I don’t think it was anybody’s opinion that payment to Stormy Daniels amounted to a crime, or that anyone would think so, which the prosecution should have to assert in order to say the purpose of doing things this way was to cover up a crime.
That was NOT the reason for accounting for it the way they did.
If Trump would have thought MC paying the NDA with his own money it was a crime, AND agreed to it before it was made, he would have made the payment directly. And he would have signed the NDA.
And it did not occur to Michael Cohen, a year later, that anyone would think that Michael Cohen funding the non disclosure agreement was a crime when he was discussing with Bob Costello if he had anything illegal he could testify against Donald Trump (The judge wouldn’t allow that in because it was hearsay)
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:10 pmThe floundering Georgia RICO case and this case are peas in a pod.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:10 pmShould vs will happen. Does the GOP want to win or not. You don’t have to sink or swim with Trump.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:10 pmIn that case, it won’t happen. A convention of true MAGA believers will never abandon Trump. They’d rather lose.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:12 pmSmoking pot is legal in NY.
It wasn’t at the time Trump did it, and probably not at the time YOU did it. Not so long ago it was a felony.
This isn’t, and no, I haven’t done worse, anyone I know that has done worse had serious consequences.
Never borrowed money for a loan down payment? Never used a drug harder than pot? Never drove drunk, even in college? Never put something down on your tax return that was not strictly true?
Perhaps not. But to say that anyone you know who did any of these things has paid the price is silly. Almost no one is caught doing them.
Cohen was his co-conspirator in this and he went to jail for it already.
Cohen, who WAS caught not paying millions in federal tax and other crimes, pleaded guilty to a campaign finance charge because the special prosecutor had to get that to have probable cause for everything else. And then he did less time than he would have done on the tax evasion alone.
This does not mean that he (or Trump) did what he pleaded guilty to in real life. It just meant that he had to take of leave a package deal (parts of which he now recants).
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:16 pmThe floundering Georgia RICO case and this case are peas in a pod.
How so? The RICO case is based on things that people care about, for starters.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:19 pmReports are that Andrew McCarthy’s head just exploded. But once he collects all the pieces, he can start on the righteous task of building the appeal for his readers…months of riveting analysis ahead to settle their hearts.
“Oh FFS, Trump did it.”
Exactly. There’s nothing brave or noble about paying hush money to protect one’s campaign. And he’s done worse on J6 and even more blantant with the classified documents. It’s not Jack Smith’s fault that those cases aren’t proceeding right now. Trump is a rogue and it’s one more opportunity for the GOP to move on….rather than braying on about initiating lawfare and torching the justice system. This is a bad man….you don’t owe him anything….
AJ_Liberty (60652c) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:19 pmIt’s not my law, it’s the law of the state of New York.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:19 pmOne thing getting lost is that while it might have been a crime for Michael Cohen to advance the money for the payment to Stormy Daniels, it would not have been for Donald Trump. Michael Cohen maybe had no more motive than helping elect Donald Trump but for Trump was not a valid campaign expense.
And for Michael Cohen to be guilty of making a secret, unrecorded, in kind political contribution or loan to Donald Trump, it would have to be in co-ordination with Donald Trump or his presidential campaign.
But Donald Trump was the man with the money. Unlike the case with John Edwards.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:20 pm* It wasn’t at the time Trump did this here, and probably not at the time YOU smoked it. Not so long ago it was a felony.
confusion of pronouns
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:21 pm” You just don’t get it. It’s not about that at all, it’s about abuse of authority by the State of NY.”
A good number of people would say it’s accountability. You don’t get to whine your way out of accountability. Don’t cover up hush money payments to porn stars to counter the bad press from the Access Hollywood tape. It’s a simple lesson.
AJ_Liberty (60652c) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:22 pm“You just ended your campaign,” Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita wrote in response.
And, sadly, he did. Oh, he may get a bit of undecided vote, but Trump’s people who make up 80% of his base will be very unhappy. I’m thinking that his polling showed him losing anyway.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:24 pmAJ,
As I said, the people (Democrats, etc) who would never vote for Trump have no problem with this, but anyone who might vote for him now will.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:26 pmCaught, is the key thing. When this happened Trump was not the President. He knew what he’d done in his life. If you have committed a bunch of crimes and fraud, don’t paint a giant target on your back. And, don’t antagonize the people that would investigate it. Does that mean that Trump was targetted for running, or having been a president? Sure, I guess, but he was aware of the jeopardy, or should have been. He’s an idiot, and thinks he’s smart, the worst kind of idiot, so maybe Cohen and his kids should have convinced him that staying home and to STFU was better for everyone.
Now he’s been president, so he thinks his BS is validated and he can get away with it because he became a ruler. It was always BS, he should have never been elected because we all knew that Trump was a scumbag. Scumbag was a known known.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:26 pmBut I could be wrong. I’d love it if Trump’s poll numbers collapsed and the Convention looked elsewhere. But I don’t think they will.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:27 pmCaught, is the key thing. When this happened Trump was not the President.
“Caught.” It is one thing if you catch a guy driving drunk. It’s quite another if you have 12 people surveilling him and when he comes out of a bar after 3 drinks and starts his car, whammo! 0.085!
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:29 pmAJ_Liberty (60652c) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:19 pm
I don’t think that Trump ever agreed to pay the hush money and Michael Cohen did it on his own, crazy as that may sound. But the alternative is even crazier.
I don’t think Trump was worried it would hurt his campaign more than the Access Hollywood tape already had. I don’t think that Trump thought it was worth the money. Cohen bargained her down from $150.000 to $130,000 but Trump still refused to pay.
If Trump had agreed to let Michael Cohen pay the money if he wanted to, and to reimburse him, wouldn’t Michael Cohen have tried to protect himself by getting a promise to pay him back in writing, or secretly taping Donald Trump, or when he got David Pecker to argue for him that Trump should reimburse him, told David Pecker to use the argument: “You promised?” I haven’t read the testimony but I didn’t read that anything like that was said.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:30 pmKlink, this would go over better if both the state’s AG and the city’s DA had not run on platforms of “getting Trump.”
They could not get him on the hush money payment itself — statute of limitations — but they could get him on putting the wrong memo on his check.
Kevin Murphy (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:33 pmhttps://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/06/10/trump-is-guilty-but-voters-will-be-the-final-judge
No discussion of the details of the case.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:37 pmCome on, we know he did it. I don’t even see anyone arguing that he didn’t do it.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:41 pmWhat someone at MSNBC wrote before the verdict:
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/alvin-bragg-trump-case-legal-theory-rcna154413
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:42 pmFrom the Open Thread:
Too bad it’s the Cabinet that makes the decision. And Nikki (for the reasons I mentioned before) will not be the VP, especially if there is a chance that Trump would be unable to serve out his full term. The convention would want to make certain another “true believer” (JD Vance, Josh Hawley, Katie Britt, Tim Scott; Byron Donalds, Elise Stefanik, etc.) would be in charge.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:42 pmTrump had bad lawyers, and both he and the judge put limitations upon them.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:44 pmNot he convention: Trump
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:44 pmWhat do British bettors think about the verdict? That it makes it less likely the Loser will be elected president this November.
Be interesting to see what the bettors think in a day, and in a week.
(I prefer betting markets to polls and pundits this far out.)
Jim Miller (20bc20) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:45 pmI know Vance, personally he’s not the guy he plays on TV. I don’t know if that’s better or worse, he’s much less MAGA in his personal life.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:47 pmI think it was probably the other way round for the lawyers, they had a bad client that forced them to do some stupid stuff and wouldn’t STFU.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:50 pmUnfortunately politicians are defined by their public persona.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:50 pmLove the headlines:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:53 pmHeh, Lock him up.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:55 pm@65, they were saying that anyone. A can of peas could expire in their pantry and it would be proof of whatever conspiracy has their blood pressure up at the moment.
Time123 (06ec87) — 5/30/2024 @ 4:58 pmCan you link to someone in power saying this?
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 5:01 pm@119 So, gift them a legit reason to claim the election was stolen? That’s really some deep thinking right there.
lloyd (78fb9a) — 5/30/2024 @ 5:06 pmToo bad it’s the Cabinet that makes the decision.
Unless the Congress establishes an alternative group by statute. Could still happen.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 5:20 pmWhat do British bettors think about the verdict? That it makes it less likely the Loser will be elected president this November.
About as meaningful as who American bettors think will be the next Prime Minister. Many would vote for “Thatcher.”
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 5:22 pmI’ve often said that Trump is made more repulsive by the statements of his supporters, but today his opponents are taking their turn.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 5:23 pmSo, tell me, is it legal to use campaign funds to pay hush money, if it arguably helps the campaign?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 5:25 pmAppropriate today:
We Are Starting to Enjoy Hatred
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 5:34 pmCongrats guys. The lawfare many of you support has radicalized Hinderaker and now he’s on board with defeating Biden and those that have turned our court system into Soviet Russia.
NJRob (a4df73) — 5/30/2024 @ 6:44 pmThis just shows you have zero clue what Soviet Russia was like.
Not knowing things is on brand though.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 6:46 pmKlink,
you are boring. You desire the victory of the left. You will not succeed.
NJRob (a4df73) — 5/30/2024 @ 6:53 pmThe WSJ editorial
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 6:57 pmMr. Bragg’s argument is that they were all in cahoots, more or less, to steal the election.
Note that there will be those that insist that this proves that the 2016 election was stolen.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:00 pmAnyone who is cheering this verdict is a partisan.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:02 pmhttps://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/30/venezuelas-socialist-will-cheat-in-the-upcoming-election-and-that-could-be-a-big-problem-for-the-us-n3789379
The end result of leftiam.
NJRob (a4df73) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:06 pmCool, I’ll take boring over stupid any day.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:13 pmA supporter of a so-called conservative who *actually tried to steal an election* is claiming that stolen elections are the end result of leftism?
It’s hilarious.
aphrael (1797ab) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:28 pm> But what I’m seeing is that we don’t mind disliking each other now. We like it. That’s the new thing, that we’re enjoying the estrangement.
We are dividing into two different nations, and each nation has strong sympathies for members of their own nation who are trapped in the territory controlled by the other nation.
aphrael (1797ab) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:30 pm> it’s about abuse of authority by the State of NY.
It’s an absolute abuse of authority for the law to require honesty in official paperwork and to impose penalties on those who are dishonest in official paperwork. There’s no legitimate reason for expecting official paperwork to be honest, after all.
aphrael (1797ab) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:32 pmAgain, this is an own goal. More than that as it will empower a newly elected Trump to use similar tactics (as he sees them) against his enemies (as he sees them).
Maybe it is all for the good, as the country NEEDS an object lesson in giving too much power to the central government and its not-so-titular head. But the Trump lesson is going to be served cold.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:33 pmIt’s an absolute abuse of authority for the law to require honesty in official paperwork and to impose penalties on those who are dishonest in official paperwork. There’s no legitimate reason for expecting official paperwork to be honest, after all.
If it showed that it actually cared one whit about such things, and enforced them against all comers including those in high office in the city, sure. But this is more like “What do we have to get Trump with?”
I suspect that the tax records of NY city officials are going to get accidentally released for crowd-sourced honesty checking.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:36 pm> There is no one you know in this life who has not done worse. Did you ever smoke pot?
Are you seriously claiming that using a mild intoxicant is worse than lying in official paperwork?
I am baffled by your value system.
aphrael (1797ab) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:37 pm> I suspect that the tax records of NY city officials are going to get accidentally released for crowd-sourced honesty checking.
Good, and then we can put pressure on prosecutors to prosecute corrupt city officials, too. NYC would be better off for it.
aphrael (1797ab) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:37 pmMobys are boring.
This brings us 1 step closer to midnight. And fools are cheering it on.
NJRob (a4df73) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:49 pmI agree, the fools are cheering it on.
I think maybe you don’t know who is cheering (ahem), and who is horrified.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:55 pmAre you seriously claiming that using a mild intoxicant is worse than lying in official paperwork?
I am baffled by your value system.
Official paperwork? We’re talking about memo lines on checks.
But anyway, pot was a felony in many states well into the 90s. It is fully illegal still in several states and will get you jail time there. Possession of 61g is a felony in Montana. Possession of 8 ounces is a felony in New Mexico although small amounts are legal.
In fact, had Trump’s payment been about covering up marijuana use, it might have been a felony under this asinine NY law.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:57 pmAnd there seems to be a pretty strong demand for much stronger drugs in the US of A. Even pot today can hardly be called “a mild intoxicant.”
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:59 pmCool, do you think he did it, yes or no?
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 7:59 pmI mean democrats could just take money and gold bars and cars from foreigners and there’s no way a democratic justice department would prosecute it.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:03 pmOr Dems could just disable requiring credit card donations to be from Americans and no one would prosecute it.
Oh, wait…
NJRob (a4df73) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:08 pmCool, do you think he did it, yes or no?
Clink, I’m a process guy. You seem to be a results guy, screw the process. This makes that meaningless to me and important to you.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:11 pm*Klink
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:11 pmI mean democrats could just take money and gold bars and cars from foreigners
Obama was faulted for a donation site that did not validate the location of donations. But no charges were filed.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:12 pmSo you think he did it but don’t care because he was convicted by democrats. Not a question.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:13 pm“I mean democrats could just take money and gold bars and cars from foreigners and there’s no way a democratic justice department would prosecute it.”
A Senator who, if he stood down, would be replaced by a Democrat appointed by the Democrat governor is your best example?
lloyd (a1df1d) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:16 pmKevin does not appear to be about guilt or innocence. He’s concerned about political implications and that this will win the election for Trump. Just as his numbers went up with the other indictments, this will just cement Trump’s support.
I’m not so sure. It just doesn’t help his cause to be found guilty of yet one more thing. Sexual assault, defamation, business frauds, and now more business fraud. Is Melania standing by her man? How abount Ivanka? This is not a look you want going into a close election. And once the gag order is off, we will get the full uncensored Trump….who we know is his worst enemy. Plus down the stretch you will see a full court political push on J6 and the classified documents mess. It’s chaos versus doddering….I’m not sure people want chaos.
What is Trump’s good news? Yeah Biden remains old and doddering…but he’s not a felon…nor is he indicted in any other court…and he’s not pledging retribution….or dissolving NATO…or making his co-conspirators cabinet members. Do we need Jeffrey Clark as acting attorney general? Michael Flynn at Defense?
This is a wakeup that Trump isn’t teflon Don…and more to it, that we don’t need someone like that. Trump created this mess. If you always do whatever the hell you want, this is sometimes where you find yourself…
AJ_Liberty (60652c) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:20 pmDiversions noted
–squirrel–
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:20 pmHogan’s fall in the polls is probably more due to his abortion campaign conversion than anything else, moving from vetoing an expansion of abortion access less than two years ago to now pledging to enshrine abortion rights into federal law.
Nobody is fooled.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:22 pmRepublicans: We need law and order! Tough laws and court restrictions to stop these ACLU 5th amendment lawyers from having a defense against using the criminal justice system to convict these criminals! OK! if thats what you want mass incarceration of republicans.
asset (29a190) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:25 pmDavid Pecker’s testimony killed Trump, why has Trump been so nice to him, the gag order? Or all the other stuff in the safe?
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:27 pmLike J. Edgar, Pecker probably had dirt on everyone.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:28 pmFar as I can tell, the only things Trump has won in court are delays. Actual verdicts, not so good for him. Maybe there’s something there there, like, maybe he really is a criminal and a fraud, yet this is what my party nominated.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:29 pm…won in court since 2020…
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:30 pmAllahNick seems to agree with much of what I’ve said today, although perhaps from a different perspective.
And worse:
It’s really too much to quote, but the main thrust is that Biden is thinking about leaning into this verdict with an address from the WH about just how terrible Donald Trump is.
and this:
Or maybe fudging vote totals?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:30 pmSo you think he did it but don’t care because he was convicted by democrats. Not a question.
No because the game was rigged from the outset, where the prosecution could win without much argument, proofs could be vague or based on convicted liars, that extraneous details that were embarrassing to the defendant but meaningless to the case were allowed, subjects barred to the defense were allowed for the state, and the judge made several statements that were, at best, prejudicial (e.g. Cohen being Trump’s “accomplice”).
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:35 pm> But anyway, pot was a felony in many states well into the 90s.
So? I’m not talking about *legality*. You said smoking pot was *worse*. It’s a ridiculous claim and i’m going to mock you for it.
aphrael (1797ab) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:37 pmI’m not so sure. It just doesn’t help his cause to be found guilty of yet one more thing.
Why? Quinnepac polled leaners and 6% said a guilty verdict would make them “less likely” to vote for Trump. My argument today is that the bulk of them fall for Trump and his 5% margin goes up to 10%.
Sure, I could be wrong and by Convention time Trump is trailing in Arkansas, but I don’t think so.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:39 pm> If the end of keeping postliberals out of power justifies the means of ditching liberal norms, then we’re arguing over which flavor of postliberalism we prefer long-term.
Way back in 2016 I was sitting here arguing that the problem with Trump was that electing him would cause serious harm to the Republic because *he* would cause serious harm to the Republic *and* because the things people would do to try to minimize or reduce or prevent the harm would *itself* cause serious harm to the Republic.
Nothing’s changed in the intervening eight years, and I don’t know why you are blaming the people reacting to the situation rather than the person who created the situation.
aphrael (1797ab) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:40 pmQuinnepac polled leaners and 6% said a guilty v
I took that from Cataggio, but now I look at the actual poll numbers and I think he’s wrong.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:45 pmNothing’s changed in the intervening eight years, and I don’t know why you are blaming the people reacting to the situation rather than the person who created the situation.
Because we are in it now. The world would have been a better place if 2016 was President Romney’s re-election campaign. But it wasn’t, Trump wasn’t struck by lightning, and we have what amounts to a conman versus a huckster. In many ways Joe Biden is Trump’s proper nemesis as he isn’t very principled either. But perhaps unprincipled within normal bounds.
In this case here, though, we see that, in order to save us from Trump, the defenders of Camelot will reach for some pretty nasty cudgels and they convince Trump’s supporters that they are just seeing the quiet part out loud.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:51 pmWe have this diary, plus updates, plus 161 comments, yet not a single observation that our host, Patterico himself, nailed it.
Didn’t he coin a phrase, something like, always trust content from Patterico? I think he earned a victory lap today.
Paul Montagu (d52d7d) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:54 pmSo because leftists spit on the rule of law and rig a system that would make soviets jealous, you blame Trump.
Interesting choice.
Kinda like the husband beating his wife because she made him mad.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:56 pmAgain? Educate yourself man. Ignorance isn’t bliss.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 8:59 pm@170 Because righties spit on the law and rigged the system first with their law and order for minorities and court packing. This is self defense against the right or what ever trump is.
asset (29a190) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:06 pmKlink and asset. Peas in a pod.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:08 pmThrowing everyone in a single box marked “Enemy” how very very…Soviet of you.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:10 pmDidn’t he coin a phrase, something like, always trust content from Patterico? I think he earned a victory lap today.
While I value his observations, when he talks about a prosecution, it is from a prosecutor’s viewpoint. He is not, for example, going to worry unduly about unjust advantages the prosecution has in a case.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:15 pmI don’t know anything about anything but I do have a question. When Harry Reid said that Mitt Romney did not pay income taxes, how far do you think the “ideological left” would have taken it to keep the course correction that, apparently, the United States deserved?
Hitch your wagons…
BuDuh (b32675) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:15 pmPat was shocked when I suggested that the defense might blurt out something that the judge had ruled off limits. And yet, a prosecution witness did exactly that (on the same subject) and not only did the judge not exclude it, the matter tainted his jury instructions (“accomplice”).
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:17 pm@176: Well, it worked.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:18 pm@176 Harry reid was a corporate establishment stooge for the donor class. The ideological left were to busy trying to stop Obama from being the deporter in chief and complaining about corporate democrats saying the economy is great for their donor class. Again you confuse corporate establishment third way democrats like the clintons for the sanders/AOC wing of the party. As Sun Tzu says no your enemy or you will always lose!
asset (29a190) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:29 pmAgain you confuse corporate establishment third way democrats like the clintons for the sanders/AOC wing of the party.
Now, we just prefer them to the economic illiterates.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:48 pmCan we have a math test for voting? Nothing too difficult. Maybe taking a square root in your head.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:49 pmWell, Trump would surely lose if you did.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/30/2024 @ 10:02 pmThis is all reminds me of when prosecutors went after Al Capone with a ticky-tacky tax evasion charge instead of focusing on his more serious crimes. And, naturally, the country’s response was to unite in outrage at the guilty verdict and elect Al Capone President.
Turd Ferguson (5bd03c) — 5/30/2024 @ 10:30 pmWell, Trump would surely lose if you did.
Because all Trump’s voters are stupid? Shows you to be thew partisan you are. Not a lick of understanding why other people do what they do. Or much caring (which is part of that “why”).
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 11:04 pmThe only math Bernie can do is “97% of yours is mine.”
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/30/2024 @ 11:05 pmYou and asset, peas in a pod (though he lacks your proclivity for insults and personal animosity.) You two should get a room, or maybe a hammock connecting your tips of the horseshoe.
lurker (cd7cd4) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:05 amThat’s what I would have thought, but it seems at odds with thisthis:
lurker (cd7cd4) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:06 amPatterico has written thousands of words, here and elsewhere, all of which I suspect you’ve read, meticulously detailing his legal analysis of this prosecution. If you disagree with it, I believe you’re more than capable of critiquing it on the merits. TL:DR’ing it with “he’s just being a prosecutor” strikes me as hand-wavy and disrespectful.
lurker (cd7cd4) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:17 amWhat effect if any will trump’s felony conviction have on his ballot access.
asset (29a190) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:50 am@180 What is economic illiterate about sanders pointing out that when obama and clinton say the economy is doing great! They mean for the donor class that funds them. One of the marx brothers talked about the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer some years ago. That is why clinton lost the midwest. Now biden is saying the same thing the economy is doing great for his donors while food prices raise every time the poor go to the market. People on fixed incomes are being priced out of their housing with many older people becoming homeless.
asset (29a190) — 5/31/2024 @ 1:04 amLooks like Scott Johnson has come around as well. The Stalinists on the left and rheir supporters will not succeed.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 5/31/2024 @ 4:29 amPosted this at TD
Should a candidate be allowed to conspire and pay to suppress negative stories and then use his business to launder the payments? For those saying it’s all political, I can only assume their answer is “yes”. We’ve gone from expectations of beyond reproach and avoiding even the appearance of corruption, to what’s a Don to do. Sadly, if you ain’t cheating, you ain’t trying seems to be the de facto ethos of many I shared a political party with for most of my life.
I’m not alone in hating that this judgment had to come before the J6 or documents cases. Those are cases that involve serious abuses of power and, with the latter, obstruction. Those are the alleged criminal actions that needed to be adjudicated prior to a national election, yet here we are with more business fraud to hide questionable judgment. In past times, this would be enough for a party to part ways and find a new champion. Now, we are debating whether it might even be a net positive. I wish I could Rip Van Winkle my way out of this nightmare.
Objectively, does it bother me that the NY law is so broad and that the elevating crime so unspecific? I think the appeals court has a real question there. Due process might demand better. Should the jury have been sequestered to better insulate it from outside influences…like a raving lunatic defendant? I have less problem here but it does bring up what is fair in such high profile cases. Do we get to a point where the process is so odious that it’s not possible to prosecute a former President? Two tiers indeed.
As a free society, we should struggle with these questions. But as a free society, we should also choose much better leaders. There’s no excuse for nominating this guy again. We truly have seen the death of shame…..
AJ_Liberty (2d978f) — 5/31/2024 @ 5:54 amTo those who’s spiking the football on Trump’s conviction…
Would you support/agree/pick up that football if this case is overturned on appeal?
Second question: and I think this is more impactful – this case “taints” the other remaining, much stronger, case.
Politically, whether you agree or not, this will likely turn Trump into a martyr.
Have fun with that….
whembly (86df54) — 5/31/2024 @ 6:54 amwhembly, it’s wasted effort.
They would all cut a great road through the law to get after the Devil.
lloyd (a1df1d) — 5/31/2024 @ 7:30 amIf you want to check election betting odds regularly, this is a good place to start.
Lott and Stossel explain why betting odds are better than polls here:
(Links omitted.)
Jim Miller (09f17d) — 5/31/2024 @ 7:59 amThat’s what I would have thought, but it seems at odds with thisthis:
The two are connected. I am faced with two lawless regimes now. As Cataggio put it, which illiberal ruler do I want? The one who I agree with on policy or the one I oppose?
I am not given a free choice, and the result of the election will have significant power over my life, so it’s NOT an academic exercise. Further, I’m in a state which I believe will come into play — the recent 55-45 statewide spit in NM has little historical basis and is usually much closer than that.
I will go today and vote early in the June 4 primary, and cast my vote for Nikki Haley and such GOP candidates who are reasonable. But in November, I have to look to MY interests, not yours, and “the rule of law” is now rather further down the checklist than it was before.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:16 amIf you disagree with it, I believe you’re more than capable of critiquing it on the merits
He has spoken of his view of the strategy and meaning of the case. I have disagreed with him on detail on several points and see no reason to rehash that. What he has not done is review the actual conduct of the trial. I suspect he’ll be OK with the result and most of the trial, but I would hope that he has issues with parts of it.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:20 am@197
I think he’s cheering the outcome and is hammering away on Twitter imploring folks to “respect the process”.
But, we all should give Mr. Frey some grace – prosecutors are incredibly biased.
Mr. Frey moreso with his obvious Trump animus.
I’m just curious what his reaction would be when this case is overturned.
whembly (86df54) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:29 amAJ,
Taken by itself, without reference to other things that Trump may have done, does this case seem like a good idea in prosecuting a former president (or even a former presidential candidate)?
If W’s DoJ had gone after Bill Clinton like this (or Trump’s after Hillary) I’m sure that the same objections would be raised by the other side if the charges were of the same level of legal pedantry.
Heck, they didn’t even go after Lois Lerner for document destruction which showed much more criminality that this banality, and she wasn’t even President.
“No one is above the law” is not only wrong, but moronic. The prosecutors who used false evidence to get Senator Stevens were not charged. Not even disbarred afaik. That affected more than just an election — if allowed Obamacare to pass. And again Bill & Hillary, Lois Lerner, several NY governors and many others?
Lots of people are above the law. Sometimes though it’s inconvenient, like now.
(Did Governor Spitzer sign any document to hide his use of hookers? Just wondering)
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:31 amMr. Frey moreso with his obvious Trump animus.
While it doesn’t diminish my respect for him, I think he’s long since decided which tribe he’s in when it comes to Donald Trump. Everyone has their hard-core positions. Talk to me about gun control, for example.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:34 amBut what is this “Twitter” of which you speak?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:36 amJim Miller (09f17d) — 5/31/2024 @ 7:59 am
Betting odds posted by people with no fing clue about the issues, based solely on personality and the filtered information they get from their local press?
That is not the same as “betting odds” in general. What do you suppose that betting odds posted in California on the Indian elections would predict?
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:39 amIn my experience, lawyers think that the (lower-case) law is of paramount importance in public life. The other 95% of us put policy and observed ethics* first.
——
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:42 am* generally unrelated to official “ethics” rules, which seem more guidelines for sociopaths than actual ethics.
The patronizing of prostitutes was more serious.
According to the New York Times, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg searched the statute books to find a New York sate law law he could charge Trump with violating. WOR radio talk show host Mark Simone says no one has ever been convicted of falsifying business records where the records were not shown to someone else,
Spitzer resigned from office in exchange for not being prosecuted and Spiro Agnew got no jail time in exchange fir resigning. I think if the Democrats had some idea like this in mind they thought better of it because that would only greatly increase Biden’s chance of losing, And should they want to make Donald Trump’s choice for vice president, ppresident?.
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:48 am“We are dividing into two different nations, and each nation has strong sympathies for members of their own nation who are trapped in the territory controlled by the other nation.”
– aphrael
I find myself thinking about this more and more and more, and I think it is important that people across the political spectrum begin addressing it as a serious policy consideration.
There are two ways to have a divorce – amicable, or not amicable. If our country finds itself in a state of irreconcilable differences (and I believe it does), then the mature thing would be to begin discussing a divorce the terms and tone of which prioritize the best interest of the kids.
Leviticus (802cd1) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:55 amThe communists around the world trump up charges around the world to stop opponents they cannot defeat fairly ay the ballot box.
We see it in Russia. We see it in Venezuela. We see it here.
NJRob (8dc5ae) — 5/31/2024 @ 9:11 amThe Soviet Union did that. And for years I have suspected that Putin planted Trump on us to be our Yeltsin.
Now, me, I have a slightly different view, seeing as I am from the land of Lincoln, not Lenin. 160 years ago, a million Americans died to keep the nation united. One Trump in the pokey is a freebie. The kids will be all right.
nk (df7516) — 5/31/2024 @ 9:51 amI have a lot of thoughts about this:
1) I was predicting a hung jury and was wrong.
2) I think the situation is bad for America.
– I followed the case closely, I think the jury came to the right verdict, I think the judge did an admirable and fair job in judging, I think the DA, while partisan, wasn’t crazy in bringing the charges.
– I’m most annoyed with President Trump for putting us here. He broke the law. He’s been doing tawdry and immoral things for years, and decided that he should be president. The fallout and culpability for this situation rests with him.
3) I do in fact worry about partisan prosecutions. Laws being used selectively in ways they aren’t used against other people to attack disliked politicians. Conversely I don’t want politicians to be above the law.
This is a situation in which either you were going to have the first time ever a President was prosecuted and for a rather mundane crime OR have to have his crimes shoved in the face of the public and ignored. Once Michael Cohen went to jail (in part) for his part of the crimes, it became hard to ignore. Again, I have a hard time being more angry at the people struggling with what to do with the situation than the criminal who committed crimes.
4) I feel the same way about Clinton in 2016 and Hunter Biden now. I worried about whether the laws were being applied to her as they would be with anyone else. But if she went to jail for crimes she committed, well that’s on her. I worry about whether Biden would be being prosecuted if his dad weren’t president, but I’m not gonna be too upset if someone gets consequences for laws they broke.
5) The hand wringing over Trump’s trial is by people who cheered on “Lock Her Up” chants that helped elected him. It’s hard for me to have too much sympathy for this particular criminal when he ran on that.
6) Conversely, Biden has largely stayed out of his opponent’s trial and not cheered it on.
7) I think there is a reasonable legal issue that can be brought up on appeal:
Nate (cfb326) — 5/31/2024 @ 10:08 amIn the jury instructions, it was a difficult issue to resolve about whether the jury needed to agree on which underlying crime was committed for the step up to go into effect. To me the judges ruling made the most sense, but there are various legal precedents going in different direction and a higher court could definitely come down differently.
“160 years ago, a million Americans died to keep the nation united. One Trump in the pokey is a freebie. The kids will be all right.”
– nk
I get the sentiment, certainly.
I would prefer, though, that my own kids not be two of the next million-plus Americans who die to keep the nation “united.” They’ll be of fighting age by the time this thing comes to a head (not that they have be of fighting age to be of dying age).
Not being sarcastic. I think we’re quickly approaching a very difficult crossroads.
Leviticus (802cd1) — 5/31/2024 @ 10:19 amA very well thought out post, Nate.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 10:29 am> So because leftists spit on the rule of law and rig a system that would make soviets jealous, you blame Trump.
Not at all; I don’t see this case as spitting on the rule of law. I view a lot of the conservative opposition to this case, and the rough dismissal of the facts, and the outrage expressed at perfectly normal ways of doing things which have been in use for longer than i’m alive, as spitting on the rule of law. Your sense of victimization has gotten so strong that it’s blinding you.
But … like I said elsewhere, we’re separating into two nations, and that’s clouding everyone’s judgment.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 10:50 am> Judge Merchan has scheduled sentencing four days before the Republican convention this coming July
Trump’s lawyer *requested a date in mid-July*. If you define mid-July as running from the 10th through the 20th, Trump’s lawyer requested a date that would either be immediately before or during the Republican National Convention.
How is that timing *Merchan’s* fault? He is simply giving Trump’s lawyer what Trump’s lawyer asked for.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 10:53 amGreat post Nate. You nailed a number of things that are also on my mind. Thank you for articulating it so well.
Time123 (316585) — 5/31/2024 @ 10:54 amLeviticus, I share your worries. People who shout their reflexive nuttiness are not the ones who will be in harm’s way.
I see this on my own campus, in a way. Faculty who are too young to have seen the late 60s and early 70s riots, but apparently felt that they wish they had been there, are getting students all revved up, shouting slogans, and breaking rules and laws….including assault.
…and then everyone is upset when those students are held to account.
Notice the faculty who are cheerleading this are not the ones who face sanctions.
My favorite question for students these days: who was Robespierre and what is his story? Extra credit: does his story have any resonance to today?
I wish you and your family the best.
Simon Jester (c8876d) — 5/31/2024 @ 10:56 am>I do in fact worry about partisan prosecutions.
Yeah, this is a real danger, now.
Trump was rightly prosecuted, from what I can see. I believe the jury got it right, and I expect Trump to be convicted in Georgia and Florida, as well, when those cases finally reach trial.
But there’s a real question here — would we as a nation have been better off to turn a blind eye to Trump’s crimes, *thereby enshrining the principle that the President can recklessly and routinely break the law and face no consquences*, or are we better off prosecuting them, *thereby creating a situation where each side will engage in retaliatory tit-for-tat prosecutions until the fall of the Republic*?
I blame Trump and his supporters for putting us in a position where we had to ask the question.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 10:57 am> In the jury instructions, it was a difficult issue to resolve about whether the jury needed to agree on which underlying crime was committed for the step up to go into effect.
I don’t think this is a difficult issue at all.
Let’s look at burglary as a comparison. The definition of burglary under California law:
> Every person who enters any house, room, apartment, tenement, shop, warehouse, store, mill, barn, stable, outhouse or other building, tent, vessel, as defined in Section 21 of the Harbors and Navigation Code, floating home, as defined in subdivision (d) of Section 18075.55 of the Health and Safety Code, railroad car, locked or sealed cargo container, whether or not mounted on a vehicle, trailer coach, as defined in Section 635 of the Vehicle Code, any house car, as defined in Section 362 of the Vehicle Code, inhabited camper, as defined in Section 243 of the Vehicle Code, vehicle as defined by the Vehicle Code, when the doors are locked, aircraft as defined by Section 21012 of the Public Utilities Code, or mine or any underground portion thereof, with intent to commit grand or petit larceny or any felony is guilty of burglary.
The basic idea is that if you enter certain kind of structures with intent to commit a felony, you are a burglar.
Imagine a case where everyone on the jury agrees that someone broke into a house, but some jurors think he broke in to use the house to sell heroin while some jurors think he broke into the house to have sex with an underage minor.
Does the jury convict? Everyone agrees he broke into the house to commit *some felony*. Or does it acquit because, even though everyone agrees he broke into the house and everyone agrees he intended to commit a felony, they can’t agree on *which* felony?
The more natural reading of the statue, IMO, is to convict.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:00 amNone. And even as a convicted felon, he will still be able to vote in Florida.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:04 amSeconded — states won’t be able to exclude him from the ballot based on this, that’s settled law now. And we already have an example of a presidential candidate getting a million votes while in jail for sedition (in 1920; dude was in prison for anti-WW1 protests under laws which would now be considered unconstitutional)
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:07 amLet’s just face facts: both Team D and Team R have odious candidates for POTUS.
Whose fault is that? I think we know the answer. We just don’t like it.
Simon Jester (c8876d) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:10 am> The other 95% of us put policy and observed ethics* first.
If that were actually true, Trump would have no more than 5% support, as his conduct has been openly and notoriously unethical for decades.
Most people are now putting tribal affiliation first, ethics second.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:10 amMaybe not, but maybe, I can’t find where it defines the grey area that Trump will be in, convicted, maybe sentenced to time, but in the process of appeal. He’d be convicted, sentenced, but technically not in jail, but also not post incarceration. I’d guess he’d be able to vote until the appeal is heard, but someone with more info might be able to answer.
Plus, I don’t think one vote in Florida is going to change much.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:11 amThe fact that the case is based on something people “care about” shouldn’t be the standard. It’s more complicated than the NY case, with 19 defendants that didn’t necessarily work in concert, but operated independently. And the Fulton County DA is just as partisan as Bragg.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:15 amIt’s the symbolism.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:17 am@215 “I blame Trump and his supporters for putting us in a position where we had to ask the question.”
We were is a position to ask the question in 2017, and no I’m not referring to the Weissmann expedition. Nate brings up the “lock her up” chant, but there was a moment on national teevee where Trump made an attempt at de-escalation amid a cycle of escalation that started way before he emerged on the scene. I could dig up his exact words but it was something to the effect that Hillary suffered enough and it was time to let it go. If there was an acknowledgment of that gesture of de-escalation and any sort of reciprocal gesture, I’m not aware of it. Of course, the escalation train plowed onward after that, to where we’ve gotten to this point. Blaming Trump and his supporters just adds more fuel to keep that train going.
lloyd (eb39b5) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:18 amEither you’re incarcerated or not, there’s no gray area. So if Trump gets probation (highly likely), or is sentenced to prison (highly unlikely) but free pending appeal, he can vote.
Actually the most important vote in Florida is not for president, but on their constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion in their constitution.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:22 amI see it a lot like Nate does @208. Kevin seems to be arguing that it wasn’t a BIG ENOUGH law and it’s not a law that is generally being enforced. In spirit I agree, but in practice I’m underwhelmed.
As I said, I thought the J6 trial should have been first. But none of this is done by internet poll….and there was no conspiracy for Bragg’s case to go first…and there was no referendum that would have moved it. Bragg thought he could prove what the law required….and the jury ended up siding with the prosecution’s case. And now Trump’s team has recourse in the appeals process. That’s our system.
Trump’s team understands that the fact patterns in both of Jack Smith’s cases don’t favor them. So delaying was in their interest…even though it probably wasn’t in the country’s interest to delay those cases…in at least having the matter deposed to a point where the electorate could be well informed. The Supreme Court didn’t help by taking the opportunity to expound on Presidential immunity rather than expediting review or sticking with the lower court opinion. Who knows how Smith’s cases would have shaken out, but the exercise would have been an important civic cleansing. We might still be broken as a people, but facts would be clarified.
Bragg’s case doesn’t help in that regard. People can hide behind the relative complexity and novelty and smallness while shaking their heads. But do you just ignore it then? Let Trump off so he faces no criminal charge out of four? That seems distinctly wrongly too. If the judge erred, the appeals process should correct it. If the law itself is defective, then the appeals process can address that too. It strikes me as unfair to say that Trump alone should get special consideration. I’m OK with raising the bar for the behavior that we expect out of individuals pursuing our highest offices of trust. Some here want the bar lowered….
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:28 amI’m most annoyed with President Trump for putting us here. He broke the law. He’s been doing tawdry and immoral things for years, and decided that he should be president. The fallout and culpability for this situation rests with him.
It could have happened without millions of GOP primary voters in 2016. Why did they choose a man who was so manifestly unsuited? Some would have it that they’re just “toothless stinky Walmart shoppers” with room-temperature IQs. As we know, rednecks are much stupider and less educated than the average inner-city Democrat voter. But I digress.
Ans why would they still want to send him back to the Oval Office? Passionately. A LOT of people pretend there are no reasons, but there are plenty and Joe Biden and his coterie are prefect poster kids for all they see that is wrong. Same ol, same ol, kick the can down the road Joe is not going to get their vote even with a substantially less appealing opponent than Trump.
So you could also blame the establishment before 2016 that allowed problems in the fly-over states (and in America generally) to fester until Trump happened. The same establishment that wrings its hands and calls all these problems “the new normal” as if that will help.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:36 amLloyd,
they will ignore all of Hillary’s transgressions, their support for her and the legitimate double standard.
And they will wave it all away in Rip’s case saying, “you should’ve prosecuted her.”
If it wasn’t for double standards…
NJRob (8dc5ae) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:36 amThe hand wringing over Trump’s trial is by people who cheered on “Lock Her Up” chants that helped elected him
Applied to me, that’s slander.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:37 amLeviticus, I share your worries. People who shout their reflexive nuttiness are not the ones who will be in harm’s way.
Everyone who thinks a civil war would be cool should stream Civil War. Jesse Plemon’s character, in particular, is coldly terrifying.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:41 amWhose fault is that? I think we know the answer. We just don’t like it.
A) Those other misinformed voters.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:43 amB) The two party system which is DESIGNED to create a bimodal distribution.
The fact that the case is based on something people “care about” shouldn’t be the standard.
Said the lawyer, not understanding that what lawyers care about and what the rest of us care about are manifestly different. Laws are there to order liberty, but when they attempt to do more than that real people ignore them at will. See speed limits, drug laws, nearly anything about sex, etc.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:46 amA civil war will be *awful*. But so will the catastrophe if either side tries to go for total victory and eliminate the other.
And yeah, I don’t think we’re far from seeing eliminationist rhetoric at this point — and that rhetoric, when it comes, will be wildly and enthusiastically supported.
An amicable divorce is probably the least bad possible outcome at this point. If it isn’t too late for that, which it might be.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:47 amTrump announced after he won in 2016 that he wouldn’t lock Clinton up as he had promised to do so while campaigning (much to the chagrin of his supporters).
He later changed his mind.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:48 amKevin M, did you ever read “A Canticle for Leibowitz“? After the nuclear war, the survivors said this:
It’s true on both sides. And I have no solution. The odd part is how, compared to human history, life is so good. I guess that we are doomed to learn, once again, why we cannot have nice things.
Simon Jester (c8876d) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:49 amKevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 8:39 am
BJP, unless there was a substantial number of people betting their hopes. That would only distort things by about 10% prrobably against BJP. I don’t want to forecast the number of seats, People would rely on news articles,
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:50 amThe fact that the case is based on something people “care about” shouldn’t be the standard.
More to the point: The GA cases are about attempting to subvert the Electoral College and undermine confidence in national elections. This is an actual tort, as opposed the the NY thing where documents that were presented to (..checking notes) no one were the basis for the “crime” of beating Hillary.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:50 amBJP
Less than 10% of Californians know who or what that is and only have other people’s guess to base their bets on. So, to say that a betting pool that FOLLOWS media guessing is more reliable than media guessing is unlikely to be true.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:52 amFailing to prosecute HRC is an example of Trump promising something but failing to follow through. He could have legally ordered the DOJ to conduct an investigation into her conduct with an eye toward prosecuting her for mishandling classified information.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:52 amGood luck proving that with a partisan DA and jury pool that mirrors New York. And we’re not even discussing whether the prosecution can go forward with Willi’s ethics issues.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:56 amIn spirit I agree, but in practice I’m underwhelmed.
And from what I read here, you and everyone else in the “GOOD!” camp are basing that largely on “it’s Trump we are talking about.” Which underlines my point that it was Trump they were trying to “get” and the prosecution was political. It would have been unsupportable (“No prosecutor would indict”) against another presidential candidate. But here, well, it’s Trump.
I’ve long believed that the ONLY time it is really important to demand civil rights (here, due process) be followed is when the civil rights of an absolute asswipe are being trampled. I said that about Larry Flynt long ago, so I’m being consistent on that.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:58 amThis is exactly what i’m talking about — conservatives now routinely believe that it’s impossible for conservatives to get a fair trial in cities.
But *one of the jurors on the Trump trial said their primary source of news was TruthSocial*, and that juror still voted to convict.
So at this point the theory is based on nothing other than rank prejudice against urbanites, the presumption that not a single juror in a city will actually weigh evidence and render a fair verdict based on the evidence.
That presumption is a sign of the fact that we’re fissioning into two *different* nations, and obviously members of the enemy nation wouldn’t be procedurally fair, because they’re all enemies and enemies are presumed hostile.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:00 pmFailing to prosecute HRC is an example of Trump promising something but failing to follow through
The Clintons probably had something on him.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:00 pmI’ve never said I was a lawyer-I can read and understand court documents and draw conclusions; and if it’s complicated (like the NY laws at issue in the Trump case), I seek out opinions of those who know more than me.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:02 pmIt’s not the only thing Trump failed to follow through on.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:05 pmThat presumption is a sign of the fact that we’re fissioning into two *different* nations, and obviously members of the enemy nation wouldn’t be procedurally fair, because they’re all enemies and enemies are presumed hostile.
I disagree. What we have are national leaders who are leading their followers away from the “others.” We were bitterly divided in 1968, and not much healed in the 1970s. We came together, relatively speaking in the 80s and 90s, then the 2000 Florida mess was a wedge. W tried to be bipartisan, but Obama and Trump weren’t interested, spurning anything the other side might want. Biden has continued this as well.
We can come together again, but it will take leadership. Nikki Haley might have been that leader, but that’s not to be. I refuse to be a defeatist here though.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:05 pmIt’s not the only thing Trump failed to follow through on.
Trump had no clue how anything worked and would not listen to the people who did. Apparently he’s done some listening in the last 3 years.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:06 pm@234 Trump changed his mind nearly fours years after his conciliatory gesture was rejected. Rip, did he need to give it more time?
lloyd (734cb0) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:07 pmI’ve never said I was a lawyer-
You’ve never said you were not and implied that you were, speaking fairly arrogantly on those topics. But I won’t make this mistake again.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:08 pm@242 As we found with the Roger Stone trial, some jurors will lie to get selected. Too bad we won’t be able to know the truth with these jurors, unless they break anonymity to sign book deals.
lloyd (734cb0) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:09 pmTrump, a “martyr”? No.
Paul Montagu (d4d407) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:13 pmA victim? No.
He’s a bully and a fraud who finally got his comeuppance. There should be three more criminal cases of comeuppance.
The hard right is weighing in
Susan Collins:
Mitch McConnell:
John Thune:
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:18 pmTrump, a “martyr”? No.
A victim? No.
He’s a bully and a fraud who finally got his comeuppance. There should be three more criminal cases of comeuppance.
I’ll just point at @241 Paul. You are no less partisan about Trump than NJ Rob.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:20 pm@233 “And yeah, I don’t think we’re far from seeing eliminationist rhetoric at this point”
“eliminationist rhetoric” is a buzz term I first heard used by Krugman in his column attacking Palin for her bullseye map a decade ago, a column that didn’t age well especially after the softball shootings.
It’s projection, of course. With Krugman, and with folks like aphrael. Trump and his supporters, despite the “lock her up” chants, were content to defeat Hillary. With the Left and their Nevertrump allies, it’s not enough that Trump and Trumpism is defeated, it must be destroyed. Let’s face facts. It was the Left who took “lock him up” eliminationist rhetoric and actually acted on it.
lloyd (734cb0) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:23 pmNote that I am not in any way saying *anything* about *who* is going to pick up eliminationist rhetoric; i’m describing a pattern of cyclical one-upmanship on both sides and it’s not at all clear to me which side is going to cross that particular line first.
But obviously i’m being a partisan attacking conservatives when I’m describing a pattern I’m seeing in both sides, because i’m a liberal, and a liberal can only be attacking conservatives whenever they say anything.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:27 pm> “lock him up” eliminationist rhetoric
“lock him up” or “lock her up” is not eliminationist, and it deeply misunderstands the scope of the problem to say that it is.
Based on the ongoing cycle of retaliatory escalation, I think within a decade we will see one side or the other calling for the murder of the opposition on a large scale. Not the candidates themselves, perhaps, but people working for the candidates.
I wish this were *not* the case, but since we’ll get there by a series of iterative smaller steps which will be reosundingly accepted by both sides as only appropriate given the perfidy of the other side, I no longer see a way ot stop it.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:29 pmAnd of course it will be excused as a joke or something not to be taken seriously until one side or the other actually does it.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:30 pm> it’s not enough that Trump and Trumpism is defeated, it must be destroyed.
A political movement which is based on maliciously undermining public confidence in the integrity of elections by spreading *lies* about election administration, and which involves an active public attempt to steal an election, *must* be destroyed. It is an active threat to the system and to the liberty of all Americans.
But it can’t be destroyed through lawfare, it can only be destroyed through either (a) persuading the voters or (b) the movement winning power and then eventually being overthrown after the damage has been done.
The Democrats have comprehensively failed at (a), so it’s almost certainly going to be (b). Most of us here won’t live long enough to come out the other side.
And so, seeing this, not being able to prevent it, and feeling like cassandra, i’ve basically withdrawn from paying attention to politics at all. I’ll concentrate on fantasy fandom and raving and try to preserve a piece of paradise for me and mine while the country burns itself down, because *that’s all i can successfully do*.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:34 pm> Blaming Trump and his supporters just adds more fuel to keep that train going.
On the one hand, I see what you are saying —- especially the bit about blaming his supporters; that just further feeds the cycle of tit-for-tat escalation.
On the other hand — Trump is an extreme outlier in terms of his rank lack of morality and ethics, his self-centered narcissism, his unwillingness to be bound by any sort of code of decent public conduct, etc.
He is responsible for his own actions, and it’s fair to blame him for them and for the impact they have on the Republic.
And his supporters, in deciding to ignore them, have *in my view* abandoned any fidelity to the rule of law.
So it’s really hard *not* to blame them — they’re looking at an obvious catastrophe and either blinding themselves to it or deciding they’d rather burn the system down. It’s their legal right to do so, and their moral right to make the choice if that’s the choice they want, and at the same time, their choice is deeply hurting the republic, so how do I not hold them responsible?
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:41 pmI wish he had never made his 2016 statement at all and followed through on his campaign promise.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:43 pmIt just goes to show how Trump has captured those who previously opposed him and are falling into line.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:46 pmWell said, Nate.
Paul Montagu (d4d407) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:47 pm@258 Stop the Steal 2020 was an escalation of Election Meddling Collusion 2016. And, Oh Lookee Here Hush Money Felony 2024 is a further escalation. But, if you think 2020 was the only escalation worth outrage, I don’t think yelling “both sides” is going to spackle over your partiality.
Romney had a good suggestion for once, a variation on Trump’s conciliatory gesture after 2016. It wouldn’t impact the Bragg case, but Biden could show he’s the Big Man and Unifier, and make little Trump your b*tch, by pardoning him for the federal trials. Break the cycle of escalation. But, he won’t, because he’s small, and his supporters are too.
lloyd (734cb0) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:47 pmSo what, Kevin. At least I’m rational about it.
Paul Montagu (d4d407) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:48 pmRight back to you. You’ve posted odd legal theories; at least I back up my claims with sources. Your comments are just backed by your imagination.
Rip Murdock (363127) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:49 pm2020 crossed a red line when it involved people *falsely presenting themselves as official electors* and *the president of the united states putting pressure on state government officials to fabricate election results*.
i’d be fine with a pardon if it were part of a package deal to set up guidelines to ensure that neither of these ever happen again and that, if it does, the penalty be so severe as to deter any rational actor.
otherwise a pardon just encourages such behavior in the future.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:51 pmaphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:29 pm
The Atlantic has an article that in part, is accusing Trump of having done that, although it doesn’t accuse him explicitly (It is a favorite trope of the left – and the argument they use for gag orders that Trump is calling for violence, and Trump likes to play into that and other things, supposing I suppose that it will backfire on the people attacking or accusing him, or maybe it’s an attempt to make the accusations against him sound irrational.)
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2024/05/the-jury-deliberates-and-trump-posts/678536
Meanwhile, Trump tells lies, or irrational statements. which are NOT disputed anywhere
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/31/2024 @ 1:12 pmaphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 12:34 pm
This attack against the integrity of elections hasn’t thoroughly penetrated the Republican Party to the point were it will need to be overthrown. Much worse is the crusade against illegal immigration, which also has an element of accusations of vote cheating (i.e. the Democrats want more illegal immigration because they want to register them to vote. As if, if you’re going to cheat you need real people to vote in person once per person. A little more rational is the accusations of wanting to get higher numbers in the Census, but that wouldn’t affect anything until the Election of 2032.)
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/31/2024 @ 1:21 pmA post and then the first half went into moderation. The usual reason for this is a typo but I can’t find it.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/31/2024 @ 1:23 pm238. Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:52 am
People who wager read media articles more carefully, and read articles on various sides
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/31/2024 @ 1:31 pmand try to weigh them. They do not get widely wrong, just like sports betting doesn’t usually get things widely wrong, even though few people overall, know the statistics or troubles and advantages of any specific team, because even if some people bet randomly, and this happens more with horse races, people who know more bet more where they feel it is wrong. The only thing you can generalize is that the odds at the extremes are not high enough usually.
“And from what I read here, you and everyone else in the “GOOD!” camp are basing that largely on “it’s Trump we are talking about.” ”
I’m not celebrating this, but I’m also not bemoaning it. Trump had more than adequate counsel and had the opportunity to present a defense or testify. Any questions about the judge and his rulings will be examined upon review…as will the constitutionality of the law itself. Personally, I think states get wide birth to address issues like financial fraud and election fraud how they see fit. And if they want a broad statute and give their DA’s broad latitude, why should my opinion or your opinion drive them in a different direction? At this point, I don’t see anything that screams reversal.
Trump’s team did not persuade this jury on the facts. The justice system is in uncharted territory with Trump. He’s someone who does not like following the rules and regularly conveys his contempt. He’s corrosive to a system that he wants to once again lead. As such, he doesn’t get a lot of deference in my view. He’s engaged in fraud most of his business career…and that’s attested to by people who have worked with him. For me, it comes back to karma. At some point you get caught.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 5/31/2024 @ 1:33 pm“An amicable divorce is probably the least bad possible outcome at this point. If it isn’t too late for that, which it might be.”
– aphrael
I don’t know that it too late for the outcome to manifest. And it’s certainly not too late for the *conversation* to occur, which is in a sense more important. I continue to hold out some hope for a best-case scenario where the conversation begins in earnest, the terms are explored in detail, and the sheer shocking nature of the conversation and its implications sets the stage for a form of reconciliation, or at least a detente. This sometimes happens in divorce scenarios, when the parties participate in good faith.
I generally hate to use the term Overton Window (because it is generally overused and abused), but I think it’s applicable here: the important thing is the expansion of the Overton Window to include this topic – not a “secession,” not a “rebellion,” but an amicable divorce rooted *ostensibly* “irreconcilable differences.” I think that allowing this conversation to occur as part of the acceptable public discourse may be the best chance we have a last-minute reconciliation, but if we continue to avoid the conversation the resentments are going to get explosive in a hurry.
I think it is also the last best hope of folks like you (and me, and probably Simon and others) to avoid the path you subsequently articulated:
“feeling like cassandra, i’ve basically withdrawn from paying attention to politics at all. I’ll concentrate on fantasy fandom and raving and try to preserve a piece of paradise for me and mine while the country burns itself down, because *that’s all i can successfully do*.”
I know that feeling. I’m close to that path. But I feel like what I *can* do, just before embracing that path, is to try to promote the conversation around the amicable (amicable!) national divorce.
Leviticus (802cd1) — 5/31/2024 @ 1:48 pmC’mon guys…
Conversation regarding a “divorce” or “secession” or “rebellion” is just hyperbolic fan-fiction.
We’re no where close to any of that.
We all should step away from politics and go do the things we love.
whembly (86df54) — 5/31/2024 @ 1:52 pmI was just going to say what whembly said.
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 5/31/2024 @ 2:08 pmI want to congratulate the commenters here on the best thread I’ve seen in a long while.
👏
Of particular note, Nate was very articulate with his thoughts after following the case so closely, and aphrael’s example of a burglary with various possible intentions was illuminating.
My political opinions are continuing to evolve, and I thank you all for helping shape them.
I’m with Kevin and whembly when it comes to having hope for our republic. Between social media and video footage of extremists doing crazy things, it’s easy to assume that our nation is fractured. However, every time I get out of the internet/TV bubble, and interact with people (I’m something of an extrovert.
norcal (adf421) — 5/31/2024 @ 2:21 pmJust yesterday my neighbor called me a social butterfly), I am reassured that there are a sufficient number of citizens out there who oppose both violence and a partition of the country.
I agree completely here with whembly. I often think aphrael has well thought out opinions but this one leaves me scratching my head.
The country has gone through worse times before, and God willing will go through worse times in the future.
Nate (cfb326) — 5/31/2024 @ 2:27 pmnk (8691d3) — 5/30/2024 @ 9:46 am
I think everybody and Trump’s lawyers maybe got it wrong.
There was some other crime specified. That something (that the jury had to sign off on) was a conspiracy to elect Trump by “unlawful means”
Just what it was that was unlawful, they didn’t have to determine, just that Trump was willing to break the law, and did.
The prosecution pointed to a meeting in July 2015 in Trump Tower, as establishing the conspiracy.
But even if what the National Enquirer agreed to do at that time was unlawful, because it amounted to illegal coordination with a campaign, what the National Enquirer agreed to do then did not include making enormous payoffs to suppress stories.
All that it agreed to was run favorable stories about Trump and bad stories about his opponents. (like the one about Ted Cruz’s father possibly being a friend of JFK assassin Lee Harvey Oswald)
All the 3 payoffs testified to at the trial were decided individually and were not on autopilot.
The National Enquirer did one, for $30,000, of a doorman who told a story they did not believe was true – that is did not believe was factually based even if he thought so. That was that, in the 1980s. Donald Trump ad been the father of an illegitimate girl. The girl knew who her father was and there was no basis to believe it was Donald Trump. However Donald Trump apparently wanted to kill that story. (maybe he had been with the mother)
The second story was that of Karen McDougal, the former Playboy bunny who had had a 10-month affair with Donald Trump, starting in September
September 2006 that continued until Donald Trump wanted to introduce her to Melania (whether as his mistress or with some excuse I do not know.)
AMI signed a contract with her, and I think that to get them to do so, Michael Cohen had to promise the National Enquirer they would be reimbursed. And it was only then after the contract with Karen McDougal had been signed, that Michael Cohen set about persuading Donald Trump to reimburse the National Enquirer. Donald Trump was willing – after all, one day David Pecker might one day be hit by a truck and the National Enquirer change its policy, nd everything they had on him might be made public. but he wanted to do by simply writing a check, but Michael Cohen told him, no no but that Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg had figured out a way to do it, and the tape cuts off before Michael Cohen can get into detail, but presumably it was similar tp what he later did with the Stormy Daniels payoff. Michael Cohen testified that the taping (which was being done by his cellphone) stopped after a call came throuuh on the call waiting)
In the end. the National Enquirer decided not to do that and to swallow the expense because to take the money would be to confess to having made an illegal corporate campaign contribution.
The third one was from Stormy Daniels. The National Enquirer did not want to buy the story because she had already talked about it in 2011 (at that time Michael Cohen threatened her with a lawsuit to get her and the publication it was in to withdraw it. Michael Cohen could not get the National Enquirer to pay Stormy Daniels $150,000, as she was demanding.
(And she had the same lawyer as Karen McDougal and her one night stand, which she was describing as an affair, had been at the same Lake Tahoe celebrity golf tournament where the affair with Karen McDougal started – now how did all that happen and what does that signify? It might be that someone was trying to set up Donald Trump then for purposes of blackmail and Michael Cohen helped maybe by supplying information on the whereabouts of Donald Trump)
Michael Cohen prepared a NDA but he could not get Donald Trump to agree even after he bargained Stormy Daniels down to $130,000. Stormy Daniels was getting nervous. The election was approaching and the value of her story could disappear like Cinderella’s coach at midnight, especially Trump lost the election, as many expected..
Then, for whatever reason, Michael Cohen made the payment himself with his own money without getting the agreement of and without telling Donald Trump. This may sound crazy but it would be even crazier for Donald Trump to expect Michael Cohen to advance the money. They were not that close. nd Michael Cohen lied about making a call to Donald Trump telling him that the payment had ben made. That ws demonstrated on cross examination.
Bob Costello speculated that Michael Cohen had ambitions of being named Attorney general or at least White House Chief of Staff – Michael Cohen said in the trial that he wanted to be >i> offered the job as White use Chief of Staff but didn’t want to take it — he just wanted it to be known he had a close connection to the president, and was in and out, (presumably, we can reason, so that he could charge large legal fees.)
The Manhattan DA charged Donald Trump with using false bookkeeping an ongoing criminal conspiracy to get someone elected (himself) by unlawful means, (which to an ordinary mind should mean something like ballot ox stuffing) but in reality his reimbursing of Michael Cohen (and giving him whatever more money he would accept as enough) was not part of any larger scheme.
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/31/2024 @ 2:32 pm* The Manhattan DA charged Donald Trump with using false bookkeeping crime number 1) to cover up an ongoing criminal conspiracy to get someone elected (himself) by unlawful means. (crime number 2)
Sammy Finkelman (e4ef09) — 5/31/2024 @ 2:39 pmSo what, Kevin. At least I’m rational about it.
Not going to argue that part, other than your knee jerks just like his, except it’s the other knee.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 2:50 pmIf it wasn’t for executive branch and the US DOJ going after Trump’s attorney’s for these things, Donald wouldn’t have been the 3rd person charged and convicted in this mess.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/31/2024 @ 2:53 pmThere are many countries (Canada, UK, Germany, Australia…) a convicted felon can’t visit.
Trump doesn’t like travelling anyway so maybe that’s not as big of an issue.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/31/2024 @ 2:59 pmI’ll let
speak for me on this one, and I’m just going to ignore your repetitive whining about it.
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 5/31/2024 @ 3:00 pmIt just goes to show how Trump has captured those who previously opposed him and are falling into line.
No, it goes to show how I am repelled by the left here. There are two fascists running, with two different sets of “good” people who they favor, and two different ideas on how to regiment society. I am real clear about what Trump is. I’m just a bit surprised that people don’t see what up with Biden (or at least his handlers). I guess he’s just better at camouflage.
Let me say this again (I’ve een saying it since 2016) I DO NOT LIKE THESE CHOICES. But that does not mean I’m down with cosigning Biden’s bullsh1t, just as I’m not cosigning Trump’s.
But give a choice of two illiberal candidates, I will pick the one least intolerable. It’s perhaps a plus that one of them is so bad at hiding his evil that there will be a reaction. So maybe we can stop giving so much power to people like these.
Kevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 3:00 pmThe Dude…
Paul Montagu (383f45) — 5/31/2024 @ 3:01 pmThere are many countries (Canada, UK, Germany, Australia…) a convicted felon can’t visit.
Trump doesn’t like travelling anyway so maybe that’s not as big of an issue.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/31/2024 @ 2:59 pm
This is where being famous can be a detriment. Everyone now knows that Trump is a convicted felon.
U.S. citizens can visit all of those countries without a visa, AFAIK. If one checks “no” on the felony conviction question on the arrival form, I doubt those countries have the inclination or wherewithal to prove one wrong, unless one is a well-known felon.
norcal (adf421) — 5/31/2024 @ 3:21 pmI was flying into Victoria BC on the Helijet from Seattle and they busted a guy. There were only 5 people on the flight and the customs folks had our names pre-supplied, so when they ran everyones names, I guess it was easy.
I bet it wouldn’t happen at a busy border crossing though. If you were OJ though, they’d notice.
Colonel Klink (ret) (96f56a) — 5/31/2024 @ 3:43 pmKevin M (a9545f) — 5/31/2024 @ 11:50 am
This is NOT a tort. It’s a bad thing, but not criminal in itself.
And Trump had a defense that the documents were in fact, truthful. But Trump’s lawyers should have acknowledged that that was a seemingly paradoxical statement.
Also Trump never conspired with Cohen to pay Stormy Daniels – he did agree to reimburse him but not as part of a larger conspiracy
He wanted to keep the NDA tightly held,
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 5/31/2024 @ 4:23 pmMy response was to your post about how Republican Senators were falling in line behind Trump, and didn’t contain any comments from yourself.
But like Trump, you’ve now made it about yourself.
Rip Murdock (d9c6d3) — 5/31/2024 @ 5:05 pm> I continue to hold out some hope for a best-case scenario where the conversation begins in earnest, the terms are explored in detail, and the sheer shocking nature of the conversation and its implications sets the stage for a form of reconciliation, or at least a detente.
I was there in 2017. I was even, barely, still there in 2020. But now … I no longer believe it is possible to shock people out of their reflexive tribalism.
Trump said, in 2016, that he could kill someone on fifth avenue and people wouldn’t care. I now believe that’s true. Moreover, he could nuke Tehran, or for that matter Monterrey, and his supporters wouldn’t care.
There are no bright lines I trust Trumpists to respect, any more, because of all the bright lines that Trump has *already* run over without them caring — and with them instead hating the people who *do* care.
I hate this *so very much*.
aphrael (218b1f) — 5/31/2024 @ 5:10 pmUS and world newspaper headlines announcing Trump’s conviction.
Rip Murdock (d9c6d3) — 5/31/2024 @ 5:40 pmMore foreign reaction.
Rip Murdock (d9c6d3) — 5/31/2024 @ 5:51 pmMore US front pages.
Rip Murdock (839852) — 5/31/2024 @ 5:57 pmI think Bragg deliberately picked a weak case because:
1) He didn’t want a case that could be used against anyone else – as the property evaluation case could have”2) He didn’t want to send
I think he took the advice of the man the Biden Administration sent there,rump to jail..
Sammy Finkelman (c2c77e) — 6/2/2024 @ 12:55 pm