Russia Destroys Dam in Evident Effort to Flood Ukrainian Towns and Scramble Plans for Counteroffensive
A major dam and power station in a Russian-occupied part of Ukraine were destroyed Tuesday, casting uncertainty over Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive in the south of the country.
Both sides accused each other of being responsible for an incident that caused serious flooding, put thousands of homes at risk and potentially threatened the safety of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
The destruction of the dam could win Russia time to reconfigure its defenses while at the same time depriving Ukraine of some options for its expected counteroffensive. Crossing the vast Dnipro river along that stretch of the front will now become impossible, said Nico Lange, a former German Defense Ministry official.
Russia could now redeploy resources from the southwest to reinforce other sections of the front, said Lange, now a fellow with the Munich Security Conference, a global security forum.
Russia’s destruction of the dam also poses potential issues, none immediate, for the nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia. Russia has been working overtime looking for ways to sabotage that plant and blame Ukraine, as the newsletter The Counteroffensive reports:
Selyverstov remembers one incident he calls, the “silliest, biggest performance” that the Russians ever did, ahead of a delegation visit by the International Atomic Energy Agency. He claims he saw Russians walking around with the wreckage of a missile, trying to find a good place to plant it. And when they did plant it, he said, they accidentally placed it in such a way that it suggested it came from territory that Russians controlled.
The Russian government is evil and must be defeated.
This action cuts the water supply to Crimea. So, it is pretty self destructive, particularly if the Ukranians can cut the land bridge in their counteroffensive.
I guess the Russians feared the Ukranians woud try a water crossing and wanted to thwart that. Or, they just wanted to make a big humanitarian mess that distracts from the counteroffensive. This would be cnsistent with the whole lot of missiles shot at Kiev strategy that’s been going on all month.
Appalled (5aa024) — 6/6/2023 @ 8:46 amOK, Devil’s Advocate here: If Russia is truly evil, does that mean that it’s time for the West to intervene militarily?
JVW (1ad43e) — 6/6/2023 @ 9:01 amOnly if Russia used chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons, which doesn’t seem likely at this stage. But if the Ukrainian offensive makes large gains (such as reoccupying Crimea) I can see Russia using such weapons to slow the advance. Sort of Putin saying “if Russia can’t have it, Ukraine can’t either” response. Unfortunately the West does not possess anywhere near the same number of tactical nuclear weapons that Russia does (2,000-4,000 Russian warheads of all types v. 100 US gravity bombs) so any response would be asymmetrical.
Had Ukraine been a member of NATO the war would never have happened.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/6/2023 @ 9:20 amOK, Devil’s Advocate here: If Russia is truly evil, does that mean that it’s time for the West to intervene militarily?
I can see us beginning some clandestine activity, like Seals exploderating the rest of that Crimean bridge. But I don’t think we should intervene officially unless Russia steps over the nuclear threshold.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/6/2023 @ 9:34 amRip, there is no such thing as a “tactical nuclear weapon.” Nuclear bombs just come in various yields and Russia deludes itself that lower yield bombs somehow “don’t count.”
Only two nuclear weapons have ever been exploded in wartime, and both of those were of lesser yield than anything in anyone’s inventory, but each of them killed about 100,000 people.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/6/2023 @ 9:38 amWhatever. National governments seem to think so.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/6/2023 @ 9:40 amRussians aren’t having kids because they don’t want to raise children for Putin, not because they don’t want children. The more he tightens his grip the more potential children slip though his fingers.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/6/2023 @ 9:42 am“I don’t think there’s any such thing as a ‘tactical nuclear weapon.’ Any nuclear weapon used at any time is a strategic game changer.”
–Secretary of Defense James Mattis, 2018
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/6/2023 @ 9:50 am#2
No. First, we are not 150% sure Russia did it quite yet. (We will be soon, I am sure). Second, the Ukranians seem to be doing fine without US troops. Save the troops for when it is time to man the wall between Ukraine and Russia that will be one of the outcomes of this war.
Appalled (5aa024) — 6/6/2023 @ 9:50 amNot so. The Nagasaki bomb was 20 kilotons, while the Hiroshima bomb was 16 kilotons. The current B61-12 air-launched tactical bomb has a variable yield of 0.3, 1.5, 10, and 50 kilotons.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/6/2023 @ 9:54 amThat is a good observation and it helps explain part of the NPR article I linked yesterday:
Clearly there was some planning.
BuDuh (eaef9b) — 6/6/2023 @ 10:05 amAlso the new W76-2 warhead for the Trident II missile is 5 kilotons.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/6/2023 @ 10:16 amtactical bomb has a variable yield of 0.3, 1.5, 10, and 50 kilotons.
They’re Dial-A-Yield and go up to 340 kilotons actually. And we have 150 of them, deployed inside NATO. Calling a bomb that is 20 times Hiroshima’s yield “tactical” is not all that accurate. Sure, you can dial them down to very low yield, but that is not how we plan to use them.
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/6/2023 @ 11:04 amAnd again, even 5-7 KT is not “tactical” if used as they will be used. These are put on long-range ballistic missiles (aka strategic delivery devices). Not real damaging to a city (it would only wipe out half of Manhattan), but more than adequate for the real target — counterforce against Russian missile silos and military bases.
The extreme accuracy of the missiles means you don’t nee the huge footprint any more, but it would be a HUGE mistake to call these “tactical.”
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/6/2023 @ 11:10 amRip, a question:
Let’s say that we used a 0.3 KT weapon to take out that Crimean bridge. Do you think that the Russians would say, “oh, it’s only a little nuke”?
Kevin M (2d6744) — 6/6/2023 @ 11:12 amShoot, I made my comment in the open thread, but one other thing: Russia has a track record of blowing up dams, and the reasoning back then appears similar to today.
JVW, I’d say we already are intervening against Putin, just not in a way that starts WW3.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/6/2023 @ 12:00 pmJVW, I’d say we already are intervening against Putin, just not in a way that starts WW3.
I mean whole hog: no-fly zones, strategic bombings, boots on the ground, etc. I get that there can be various levels of evil (I played Dungeons & Dragons in my youth), and perhaps Russia/Putin has not quite become evil enough, but how close is he? Does it really have to be a bioweapon or nuclear weapon launched, or at some point do we believe that his attacks on civilians has crossed a line and placed him in that rarefied Hitler territory?
JVW (6e8f09) — 6/6/2023 @ 12:07 pmAs long as Putin is stuck in the Ukrainian quagmire of his own making, JVW, I’d rather not start WW3. And because he’s stuck there, he’s too preoccupied to try to conquer other non-NATO territories such as Moldova. And credit goes to the Ukrainians for keeping Putin mired there, so I’d rather arm the Ukrainians and keep him stuck there, hollowing out his military and economy and demographics.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/6/2023 @ 12:21 pmEven if he drops WMDs, I’d still be hesitant to opt for “whole hog”, because such an act will politically backfire on Putin and isolate him even further.
But the moment he invades a NATO member, he’s the one who started WW3.
No, but the West won’t be first one to use a nuclear weapon.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/6/2023 @ 12:58 pmStephen Schwartz.
I’d like to know his sources, but he’s an expert in nuclear energy.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/6/2023 @ 1:31 pmLast Fall A Russian Brigade Nearly Blew Up Ukraine’s Dnipro River Dam. Eight Months Later The Russians Finally Pulled The Trigger.
Flashback October 2022:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/6/2023 @ 1:52 pmI mean whole hog: no-fly zones, strategic bombings, boots on the ground, etc.
Not electing Republicans is enough.
nk (bb1548) — 6/6/2023 @ 3:38 pmAppalled (5aa024) — 6/6/2023 @ 8:46 am
It’s an act of desperation, and they may not even have assessed Ukraine’s plans, or all of them, correctly.
Ukraine is now doing some attacking within Russia and the Biden Administration’s last worry – that Russia might decide to expand the war to NATO territory, has been abandoned.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 6/6/2023 @ 3:51 pmRelated:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/6/2023 @ 4:16 pmFor now.
Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 6/6/2023 @ 4:45 pmIf he wants to continue as speaker, he will be oppose it for the next two years.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/6/2023 @ 5:25 pmAllahNick’s perspective is good, like usual.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/6/2023 @ 7:19 pmMichael Weiss weighs in on Tucker’s Putin-friendly inaugural Twitter episode.
If you watch his missive, Tucker is still up to his usual RT-friendly, Ukraine-blaming Putin-absolving anti-American tricks, calling Zelenskyy “sweaty and rat-like” and “comedian turn oligarch” and a “shifty, dead-eyed Ukrainian friend in a tracksuit”.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/6/2023 @ 7:41 pmTucker’s stripes haven’t changed ever since he declared that he wanted Putin to conquer Ukraine 3½ years ago.
Well, the Russians have a history of blowing up Ukrainian dams, but according to the Washington Post the Ukraine did a test hit on that same dam with HIMARS
Russian history of blowing up dams (stolen from wikipedia):
When Russian forces retreated from Kherson in November 2022 they destroyed the bridge deck, damaging some of the sluice gates.[5] Then the Russians intentionally opened additional sluice gates, allowing water to rush out of the reservoir. At that time the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration in a statement suggested that one of the purposes of draining the reservoir might have been to flood the area south of the dam, in order to keep Ukrainian Forces from crossing the Dnieper River. Officials stated that Ukrhydroenergo, Ukraine’s hydro electric company, believed Russian occupiers “opened the station’s locks fearing an advance of Ukrainian soldiers.”[6]
In the following months of Russian strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, several other dams were struck and left large portion of residents without access to water. Examples include the Russian missile attack on the Kryvyi Rih dam and the destruction of the Oskil river dam by Russian land forces.[7][8] In October 2022, the Foreign Minister of Moldova, Nicu Popescu, claimed Ukraine had intercepted Russian missiles that were targeting the dam on the Dniester river.[9]
Ukrainian use of HIMARS on the dam (also stolen):
steveg (1e2f4c) — 6/6/2023 @ 11:25 pmIn late 2022, with the Kherson counteroffensive approaching the Dnieper, Ukraine accused Russia of planning to breach the dam using explosives in retaliation.[3] During the counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces conducted a HIMARS strike on one of the dam’s floodgates, in a test that showed that they could flood the river downstream to prevent Russian crossings.[4]
Here’s a good thread on the canals that were fed by the now-emptying Kakhovskyi Reservoir. The Ukrainians have no motive to destroy the farmland they intend to reclaim from the Russian occupiers. Hopefully, we’ll see the declassified intel soon.
Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 6/7/2023 @ 6:11 amI think the dam sabotage just underscores the true futility of war. It destroys people, wastes incredible amounts of money, and transforms countries into disaster zones. The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives, their liberty, and the their homeland. The Russians are fighting to take that away, without a shred of legal justification. This is the problem with dictators and authoritarian strongman regimes. They are not constrained by norms or humanity. Internal dissent is ruthlessly crushed and then buried under tedious propaganda. It’s sad that Russian citizens are trapped in Putin’s delusions of grandeur. As if Russia is realistically threatened by NATO, the EU, and Western democracy. Only a dictatorship is threatened by neighbors embracing liberty, capitalism, and modernity.
It would be sad if Ukraine destroyed their own dam and created a natural disaster and human crisis. The evidence suggests that the Russians mined it and controlled it. There’s always the remote possibility that the Ukrainians did it to build international outrage and put pressure on Crimea. You can’t rule it out without perusing the surveillance data. Still, without clear evidence, I will continue to blame the aggressor. Documenting war crimes is almost an academic exercise. Putin will die by coup, not by some tribunal at the Hague. Ukrainian excesses in my mind are provoked. This is the awfulness of war. We fire-bombed Dresden and Hamburg to quicken the end of a rotten war. We just hope to not completely lose our humanity.
AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 6/7/2023 @ 9:04 amISW’s Take:
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/7/2023 @ 9:59 amParagraph breaks added. Footnotes omitted.
Not sure how credible this is… but, this points to the Russian blowing up the dam:
whembly (d116f3) — 6/7/2023 @ 12:29 pmhttps://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/status/1666167107099262976
Tucker should register as a foreign agent.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 6/7/2023 @ 1:50 pm