Patterico's Pontifications

5/19/2023

Weekend Open Thread

Filed under: General — Dana @ 9:05 am



[guest post by Dana]

Let’s go!

First news item

Holding the majority is the priority:

A resolution to expel Rep. George Santos, R-N.Y., from Congress was referred to the House Ethics Committee on Wednesday as Republicans successfully sidestepped an effort to force them into a vote that could have narrowed their already slim four-seat majority.

The House voted along party lines, 221-204, to refer the matter to the ethics panel, with Santos himself joining his GOP colleagues in voting to do so.

The freshman congressman has been charged with embezzling money from his campaign, falsely receiving unemployment funds and lying to Congress about his finances. He has denied the charges and has pleaded not guilty.

Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., introduced a resolution in February to expel Santos, something the House has only done twice in recent decades. He sought to force a vote on that resolution under a process that left three options for Republicans: a vote on the resolution, a move to table, or a referral to committee.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy chose the third option, much to the chagrin of Democrats who described it as a “complete copout.” They noted that the ethics panel is already investigating Santos and that it was time for Republican House members who have called for Santos to resign to back their words with action.

Second news item

This raises some questions:

When Sen. Dianne Feinstein walked into the Capitol last week, ending a monthslong medical absence, she was accompanied by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a small entourage of aides — and a close personal confidant with a storied political pedigree.

Nancy Carinne Prowda blended into the swarm around the legendary California Democrat. The San Francisco Chronicle made note of her presence but left unreported amid the spectacle was the larger role that Prowda, the eldest child of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, has come to play in Feinstein’s life as the 89-year-old has dealt with the absence of her deceased husband, the departure of trusted staffers, a nasty case of shingles and spiraling concerns about her fitness for office.

The intrigue surrounds the future of Feinstein’s seat. Pelosi has endorsed Rep. Adam Schiff, her longtime protégé and former hand-picked House Intelligence Committee chair, to succeed Feinstein after her sixth and final term ends next year…But if Feinstein were to bow to pressure and retire early, Schiff’s advantage could disappear. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) has pledged to appoint a Black woman to serve out her term, and one of Schiff’s declared opponents, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), would fit the bill.

“If DiFi resigns right now, there is an enormous probability that Barbara Lee gets appointed — thus, it makes it harder for Schiff,” one Pelosi family confidant told Playbook, adding that the relationship between Pelosi, her daughter and the senator is “being kept under wraps and very, very closely held.”

Third news item

Revealing:

Sanctions against Russian defense companies have not interfered with Western supplies – equipment is still being imported by military contractors who have escaped sanctions lists. European businessmen have continued to sell goods to Russian firms that supply the country’s army with microchips for missiles, shells, fuses, tactical boots, body armor, engines for warships, and many other goods. The Insider confirmed supplies coming in from Germany, France, Switzerland, Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, Estonia, Lithuania, Austria, and Poland.

This:

Engaging with Russia is being an accessory to crime. It used to be mostly fraud and theft, now it’s murder and terror…Countries and companies still doing business with Russia are exploiting the murder of Ukrainians for profit. They barely hide avoiding sanctions to help Putin and his war machine. This isn’t geopolitics or politics at all. It’s funding and empowering a war criminal regime attempting genocide on an industrial scale. These companies and governments are doing it knowingly, and in many cases openly.

Related: The Biden administration has reportedly signaled to allies that the U.S. would not block their export of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Filed under: I’ll believe it when I see it.

Fourth news item

Gov. DeSantis doesn’t seem very business friendly. More fallout from DeSantis’s nonsense feud with Disney:

The Walt Disney Co. said it is pulling out of a roughly $1 billion investment in Florida, citing “changing business conditions.” The media and entertainment giant announced the move amid a year-long feud with the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, after Disney publicly opposed his bill to limit instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity in public schools.

In a memo sent to Disney employees, Josh D’Amaro, chairman of Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, said that the company isn’t moving forward with its plans to build a new Disney campus in Lake Nona.

The Lake Nona complex would have included several buildings employing 2,000 Disney workers that would have been relocated from California to Florida.

Fifth news item

On San Francisco:

San Francisco’s problems go far beyond drugs. The Bay Area is home to four of the 10 most valuable companies in the world — Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia and Meta — titanic producers of wealth, but a staggering one per cent of the city’s population is homeless, compared to less than 0.2 per cent across the US. The gulf between rich and poor — and white and black — is among the largest in America. House prices and rents soared to among the highest in the US during the last tech boom. Since the pandemic, tech companies have embraced remote working, laid off staff and slashed office space, leaving almost a third of the city’s commercial real estate vacant. In other words, houses are more expensive and scarcer, and offices are cheap and empty. Teachers and nurses can’t afford to live in San Francisco, and tech workers see fewer reasons to. 

There is a growing sense, too, that the city’s progressive political class has failed its citizens. Violent attacks in wealthy neighbourhoods, including the fatal stabbing of Cash App founder Bob Lee and a burglary at the home of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi which left her husband in hospital with a fractured skull, were interpreted as symbols of pervasive lawlessness.

The area has lost a net of 2,500 businesses since March 2020. Now residents are doubtful about the long-delayed opening of San Francisco’s first Ikea just three blocks away from Whole Foods — although Ikea said its plans had not changed.

Earlier this month, high-end Saks and Nordstrom vacated San Francisco, leaving over 500,000 square feet of retail space expected to be completely vacated by the early fall.

Sixth news item

Nikki Haley on Jan. 6:

Former U.S. ambassador the United Nations Nikki Haley Wednesday called Jan. 6, 2021 “a terrible day” and said any person who broke the law at the U.S. Capitol that day “should pay the price.”

“It was not a beautiful day, it was a terrible day, and we don’t ever want that to happen again,” Haley said at a town hall-style event in Ankeny, Iowa, when asked by a voter how she could ensure a “fair and speedy” trial for those charged over their alleged actions on Jan. 6. “I don’t know enough about each individual [rioter] but that’s my rule: If you break the law, you pay the price. And so I think that’s the way we need to look at it.”

I feel like Haley is always trying to gingerly walk the tightrope by not mentioning you know who. But, after all, it was you know who that fomented the insurrection of Jan. 6, and it was the same you know who that referred to Jan. 6 as a “beautiful day” during the CNN townhall. This is Haley back in February 2021:

She confidently predicted Trump would not run for federal office again.

“I don’t think he’s going to be in the picture,” Haley said. “I don’t think he can. He’s fallen so far.”

When asked how Trump could be held accountable, she said: “I think he’s going to find himself further and further isolated. I think his business is suffering at this point. I think he’s lost any sort of political viability he was going to have. I think he’s lost his social media, which meant the world to him. I mean, I think he’s lost the things that really could have kept him moving.”

Underestimating Trump is the biggest mistake a Republican candidate can make.

Seventh news item

Ramping up: Gov. DeSantis is said to be officially announcing his run for the presidency next week. Sen. Tim Scott is launching a $6 million ad buy and is expected to officially announce his entry into the presidential race on Monday.

Eighth news item

On debt limit negotiations:

High-stakes negotiations over raising the debit limit abruptly came to a halt Friday on Capitol Hill, after Republican negotiators walked out of the room and blamed the White House for holding up the talks.

“Until people are willing to have reasonable conversations about how you can actually move forward and do the right thing, then we’re not gonna sit here and talk to ourselves,” Rep. Garret Graves, R-La., told reporters.

“We decided to press pause because it’s just not productive,” he added. Graves said he did not know if talks would resume this weekend.

Sticking points:

As Republicans demand spending cuts and policy changes, Biden is facing increased pushback from Democrats, particularly progressives, not to give in to demands they argue will be harmful to Americans.

Democrats particularly refuse the Republican proposal to protect defense and veterans accounts from spending caps, arguing that the cuts will fall too heavily on other domestic programs.

Republicans also want to impose stricter work requirements on government aid recipients. Biden has suggested he might be open to considering it, but Democrats in Congress have said is a nonstarter.

Have a great weekend.

–Dana

431 Responses to “Weekend Open Thread”

  1. Good morning.

    Dana (560c99)

  2. The Biden administration has reportedly signaled to allies that we would be willing to export F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Filed under: I’ll believe it when I see it.

    Per your link, the Administration has not said the US will export F-16s to Ukraine, they have said the US will not object to European countries exporting their F-16s to Ukraine.

    Rip Murdock (dca0fa)

  3. I would add this item, and it signals that Trump will be criminally indicted in three months.

    The Georgia prosecutor leading an investigation into former President Donald J. Trump and his allies has taken the unusual step of announcing remote work days for most of her staff during the first three weeks of August, asking judges in a downtown Atlanta courthouse not to schedule trials for part of that time as she prepares to bring charges in the inquiry.

    The moves suggest that Fani T. Willis, the Fulton County district attorney, is expecting a grand jury to unseal indictments during that time period. Ms. Willis outlined the remote work plan and made the request to judges in a letter sent on Thursday to 21 Fulton County officials, including the chief county judge, Ural Glanville, and the sheriff, Pat Labat.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  4. Thanks, Rip. Fixed now.

    Dana (560c99)

  5. Biden also agreed to allow Ukrainian fighter pilots to train on F-16s, twelve months too late.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  6. Fourth news item

    Gov. DeSantis doesn’t seem very business friendly. More fallout from DeSantis’s nonsense feud with Disney:

    The Walt Disney Co. said it is pulling out of a roughly $1 billion investment in Florida, citing “changing business conditions.” The media and entertainment giant announced the move amid a year-long feud with the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, after Disney publicly opposed his bill to limit instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity in public schools.

    In a memo sent to Disney employees, Josh D’Amaro, chairman of Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, said that the company isn’t moving forward with its plans to build a new Disney campus in Lake Nona.

    The Lake Nona complex would have included several buildings employing 2,000 Disney workers that would have been relocated from California to Florida.

    This has nothing to do with DeSantis or Florida’s ‘Parent’s Right’s” bill.

    This project was always going to be shut down, because Iger hated it from the beginning (before the latest kerfluffle) and most of those 2k employees were going to be jobs from California, whom hated the idea of the move.

    whembly (d116f3)

  7. Maybe there was reason for initial skepticism about a “bombshell” New York Post story that was funneled to them by a lawyer whose law licenses were suspended for lying.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  8. Citation for post #6
    https://twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1659598980559380480

    In June 2022, Disney’s own spokesperson said the company’s decision to delay for three years the relocation of jobs to FL had nothing to do with Governor DeSantis.

    Jacquee Wahler “said the dispute with DeSantis had nothing to do with the delay,” reported the Orlando Sentinel.

    whembly (d116f3)

  9. Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 5/19/2023 @ 9:33 am

    Related:

    Ukrainian fighter pilots could be trained in the basic operations of American-made F-16 Viper fighter jets in around four months, according to a U.S. Air Force assessment conducted earlier this year.
    …………
    The Ukrainian pilots who took part in the BPA are not named, but are identified in the report as a Su-27 Flanker pilot holding the rank of Captain and a Major primarily flying the MiG-29 Fulcrum. Soviet-designed Su-27s and MiG-29s make up the bulk of the Ukrainian Air Force’s current tactical combat jet fleets.
    …………
    The BPA (Baseline Pilot Assessment) had the following three main objectives, according to the report:

    “Observe Ukrainian pilots to establish a baseline assessment of skills and determine feasibility of training on Western 4th generation fighter aircraft.”

    “Observe Ukrainian pilots to aid in development of a specialized training syllabus to determine an accurate training timeline to transition to Western fighter aircraft.”

    “Informally assess English language aptitude of Ukrainian pilots.”

    After the evaluation, which consisted of nine separate simulator events with a total time of 11 and a half hours, the F-16 instructor pilots concluded that the two Ukrainians had demonstrated above-average skill progression. This included demonstrated ability in the simulator “to successfully land the aircraft from an overhead simulated flameout (SFO) pattern,” which the report describes as a “relatively technical skill.”

    “After a single demonstration of an overhead pattern, both pilots were able to successfully recover to an overhead touch-and-go pattern on each simulator,” the report notes. “Pilots were able to execute mock attacks based on parameters communicated while they were flying the sim.”
    ………..
    The report concludes that, “given the skillset demonstrated by the UKR AF pilots, and the requirement to develop a specialized syllabus only focused on min required tasks, ~4 months is a realistic training timeline.”
    ………..
    “The current Training Task List (TTL) that guides syllabus development lists approximately 250 tasks that must be taught and demonstrated up to a competent level upon completion of Mission Qualification Training (MQT) – when a pilot is considered a mission capable pilot,” the 162nd Wing’s report explains. “Eliminating events that would not be required for initial UKR AF training could reduce this TTL down to approximately 160 tasks.”
    ………..
    The BPA report does highlight a lack of English language skills as a concerning issue, especially when it came to the Ukrainian pilots being able to read instruments and displays. The English skill level of either pilot from Ukraine is unclear, as is how much of the assessment may have been conducted with the help of interpreters. It does say that “there was noted improvement of English aptitude over the two-week assessment.”
    …………

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  10. @8

    Who’s to say if Desantis influenced the decision or not, but the timing looks bad, especially with the comment during the earnings call about pulling investments out of Florida. You could be completely right, but public perception is going to chalk this update to DeSantis driving Diseny’s money out of Florida, and I think that’s the way Disney wants it to look.

    Manotaur (e04635)

  11. Rip Murdock (8accf8) — 5/19/2023 @ 11:49 am

    Related:

    Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has reiterated a plea for the country’s international partners to provide it with more modern Western fighter jets, such as the U.S.-made F-16 Viper. He has also rejected calls from inside the Ukrainian government to push American authorities to send A-10 Warthog ground attack aircraft. ……….

    Reznikov gave his latest comments about the need for Western combat jets like the F-16, and the unsuitability of the A-10 to meet the country’s requirements, in an interview with Ukrainian news outlet Liga that was published (March 16, 2023). The Defense Minister’s remarks about the Warthog came in direct response to a recent call for the transfer of those aircraft, as well as AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, from Kyrylo Budanov, head of the country’s Defense Intelligence directorate. There were reports last month that Budanov was in line to succeed Reznikov as Defense Minister, which did not come to pass.

    An airplane is a platform that is primarily an element of air defense,” Reznikov said, according to a machine translation of the Liga story. “Therefore, we need aircraft that, as an element of air defense, are capable of seeing an enemy aircraft in the air and damaging it, shooting down a cruise/ballistic missile, and, if necessary, striking ground targets (warehouses, command posts, accumulation of equipment).”
    …………
    “This plane [the A-10] can’t see far and is very slow. There are a lot of them in the USA, but they don’t fight. They are old, they have no spare parts, and it is impossible to maintain them,” Reznikov continued in his interview with Liga. “I discussed these planes [with U.S. officials] back in March of last year.”
    …………

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  12. BTW, Zelenskyy is not only appearing at the G-7 summit, he also made a stop at the Arab League summit.

    President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Arab nations to work with Kyiv to secure the release of Ukrainians in Russian detention, in an address at the Arab League summit in Jiddah, Saudi Arabia, on Friday. Even “if there are people here at the summit who have a different view of the war on our land, calling it a conflict, I am sure that we can be united in saving people from the cages of Russian prisons,” he said. Zelensky is set to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

    Assad reacted with his usual class.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  13. From what I have read of the GOP’s hitting “pause” of debt limit talks on Twitter and various other conservative-leaning blogs, the Biden Administration is publicly claiming to be making concessions on rescinding COVID funds and considering limits on future budget growth, but in private negotiations they are absolutely refusing to lock in those details. So McCarthy and McConnell have determined that it is all a ruse, so that when nothing has been done by the deadline the Democrat-friendly media will claim that Biden had tried to negotiate in good faith, but that Republicans were just too damn intransigent. It looks like we are going to have to sweat this out to the end.

    One nice piece of news is that now that the President is cancelling part of his Asia and Oceania trip next week, various media outlets are on the line for thousands of dollars in unrefundable travel costs.

    JVW (3c73d4)

  14. Disney’s real payback will be when it starts releasing the DeSantis administration’s internal communications regarding the reasons behind his campaign to dissolve the Reedy Improvement District.

    Hint: It had nothing to do with the fact that Disney had a special district and everything to do with Disney’s speech.

    Discovery will be a b!tch. Just ask Fox News.

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  15. Assad reacted with his usual class.

    No doubt that Assad is a bad actor on the scene, but as the community notes are pointing out, Zelensky’s speech was delivered in English and Assad is fluent in English, so just because he removed his earpiece with the Arabic translation doesn’t mean that he wasn’t listening to the speech.

    JVW (240239)

  16. @8 and @10

    Nearly one year ago.
    In June 2022, Disney’s own spokesperson said the company’s decision to delay for three years the relocation of jobs to FL had nothing to do with Governor DeSantis.

    Jacquee Wahler “said the dispute with DeSantis had nothing to do with the delay,” reported the Orlando Sentinel.

    Recently.

    The Walt Disney Co. said it is pulling out of a roughly $1 billion investment in Florida, citing “changing business conditions.” In a memo sent to Disney employees, Josh D’Amaro, chairman of Disney Parks, Experiences and Products, said that the company isn’t moving forward with its plans to build a new Disney campus in Lake Nona.

    There is a difference between the two statements. There is nothing in the citation @8 that confirms the statement “This project was always going to be shut down, because Iger hated it from the beginning (before the latest kerfluffle) and most of those 2k employees were going to be jobs from California, whom hated the idea of the move”.

    Purplehaze (05dea1)

  17. The Puppet Masters:

    The House Freedom Caucus said it’s calling on House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to suspend his negotiation on raising the debt limit with the White House and instead focus on getting the House-passed “Limit, Save, Grow Act” through the Senate.

    “There should be no further discussion until the Senate passes the legislation,” a statement from the Republican group said.
    …………
    “This legislation is the official position of the House Freedom Caucus and, by its passage with 217 votes, the entire House Republican Conference,” the members wrote in a statement asking McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Senate Republicans to “use every leverage and tool at their disposal to ensure the Limit, Save, Grow Act is signed into law.”
    ………..
    Privately, several conservative lawmakers are beginning to fear that their demands will get steamrolled to strike a bipartisan deal with Democrats. Negotiators have narrowed the frame of discussions to finding a compromise on permitting reform, adding work requirements and cutting spending, which is significantly less than what staunch conservatives would like to get out of a debt limit deal.

    ……….. If McCarthy were to ignore their demands, it could be a breach of trust, several conservatives have privately stress.
    ……….
    The House Freedom Caucus, however, appears unmoved by McCarthy’s efforts. With the government divided — and Republicans only in possession of a narrow, delicate advantage in the chamber — the bloc of conservative Republicans has evolved from an irascible minority faction into a controlling legislative force.
    …………
    On the House floor on Thursday, Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) said Senate Republicans need to “hold the line” by doing “their job and [avoiding] whatever consequences there might be for reaching the debt limit” by passing the GOP-backed measure.
    …………

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  18. RIP football great and actor Jim Brown (87).

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  19. Sixth news item: Nikki Haley

    She’s auditioning to be Trump’s VP. That’s the closest she’ll ever get to the Oval Office.

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  20. @11

    Yep. They need the F-16s to protect the A-10s

    How “Killer Chick” Got Her Battle-Damaged A-10 Home

    Purplehaze (05dea1)

  21. I dunno, JVW. If he’s so fluent in English, why the earpiece in the first place.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  22. RIP football great and actor Jim Brown (87).

    Donald Sutherland is the last surviving member of The Dirty Dozen, one of the ten greatest movies of all-time. I may have to watch it tonight in memory of the greatest NFL running back there ever has been.

    JVW (cef0d9)

  23. Rip,

    There is no law that requires that a government official like you or that said official can urge the legislature maintain a special governmental district for you. In particular, there is no law that says the state legislature can’t take action after you try to end run around first legislation with a cuter than lace pants legal maneuver designed to thwart the clear legislative intent of bill #1.

    I have no doubt Disney’s decisions are motivated in part to retaliate against DeSantis. I assume he knew he was risking that. The one thing I assume he won’t do is sue Disney over this action.

    DeSantis is going down a populist pathway I have no love for. Disney’s defenders, however, are advocating positions that they would not do if the company were Exxon, Amazon or Microsoft.

    Appalled (d2e551)

  24. I dunno, JVW. If he’s so fluent in English, why the earpiece in the first place.

    So that he could dramatically rip it from his ear for the sake of the cameras. My point is that Assad still had to listen to the speech.

    JVW (ed68f3)

  25. DeSantis is going down a populist pathway I have no love for. Disney’s defenders, however, are advocating positions that they would not do if the company were Exxon, Amazon or Microsoft.

    I think this is an excellent summation of how I feel too. For obvious reasons, the left treats entertainment companies in a far more tolerant way than they would ever treat an energy company. Have they ever stopped to realize this.

    JVW (31ac7a)

  26. DeSantis would have been so much better served had he left his dust-up with Disney to simmer once he delivered that wonderful broadside against their mislabeling of the parental rights bill and then added his bon mot about how disgustingly obsequious to China they are. He had won the argument at that point; the rest of it was just gratuitous. Hopefully he’s learned from this mistake.

    JVW (a35eae)

  27. Over a year out to the convention, who would bet a lot of money that Trump or Biden will be the nominees? Too much can still go on. It’s all name recognition at this point. If indictments drop, so will Trump. Biden is one fall away from dropping out. Not everyone follows politics 24/7. Few voters fully comprehend the case against Trump. Once Christie et al make it, then let’s revisit the polling.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  28. Hopefully (DeSantis has) learned from this mistake.

    He’ll only learn when he needs to sit for a recorded deposition and Disney’s lawsuit plays out during his presidential campaign.

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  29. Rip Murdock (8accf8) — 5/19/2023 @ 12:28 pm


    Paying the Piper:

    ……….
    ………McCarthy faced fresh attacks from the conservative House Freedom Caucus on Thursday over signs the deal would not cut spending by as much as many Republicans have demanded, fueling concern on the right that the GOP would not extract sufficient concessions.
    ………..
    Several people close to the negotiations said lawmakers remained divided over the extent and duration of new restrictions on federal spending. House Republicans have pushed for spending limits on a substantial pool of federal funding that excludes programs such as Social Security and Medicare, but otherwise aim to restrain the growth of spending on an enormous part of the U.S. government. In talks, GOP negotiators have pushed these “spending caps” on domestic spending — including education, transportation, and scientific programs — to reduce the deficit by trillions of dollars.
    …………
    One core dispute in talks has been over how long these spending “caps” should remain in effect. Democrats want the spending cuts to only last for roughly two years, after which time appropriators could more easily increase the budget. But Republicans have sought to extend the duration of the restrictions to a decade because the amount of deficit reduction goes up substantially the longer the restrictions are in effect.

    Perhaps even just as difficult is how steep the first year of spending cuts should be. McCarthy has pushed for a $100 billion cut starting the upcoming fiscal year, reflecting the internal pressure he faces among Republicans to deliver spending cuts that cannot later be reversed. ……..
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  30. There is no law that requires that a government official like you or that said official can urge the legislature maintain a special governmental district for you. In particular, there is no law that says the state legislature can’t take action after you try to end run around first legislation with a cuter than lace pants legal maneuver designed to thwart the clear legislative intent of bill #1.

    I really don’t care whether Disney has a special district or not. Apparently De Santis was happy with the arrangement during the first four years of his administration and willingly took their campaign contributions.

    The point is that DeSantis’s clear motivation in dissolving the district (and the other actions) was to punish Disney for its speech, which is protected by the First Amendment. Every statement made by DeSantis confirms it. Disney has right to speak out without fear of arbitrary government action.

    Now if you think corporations shouldn’t have free speech rights, that’s another question.

    We’ll see next who’s right. My bet is that Disney will receive a huge monetary award from Florida taxpayers.

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  31. He’ll only learn when he needs to sit for a recorded deposition and Disney’s lawsuit plays out during his presidential campaign.

    Yeah, if Disney files suit against Florida while its Republican governor is running for President, then they have the stupidest executive team of all time. Imagine giving a middle finger to nearly 60% of the voters in the state in which you do most of your theme-park business.

    But as I have said earlier, Disney can always relocate everything to California and be at the whim of an arbitrarily-extended government lockdown solely at the discretion of the governor. That sure worked out well for them, didn’t it?

    JVW (57d887)

  32. They noted that the ethics panel is already investigating Santos

    Also, an Ethics panel investigation is usually put on hold after the FBI informs them there is a criminal investigation and certainly after an indictment. On the other hand a member is not usually expelled or resigns after after an indictment but only a conviction. They do lose committee assignments but George Santos has none.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  33. Yeah, if Disney files suit against Florida while its Republican governor is running for President, then they have the stupidest executive team of all time.

    They already have done so.

    The lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida on Wednesday accuses DeSantis of punishing it for exercising its right to free speech, threatening its business operations, jeopardizing its economic future in the region and violating its constitutional rights.

    “There is no room for disagreement about what happened here: Disney expressed its opinion on state legislation and was then punished by the State for doing so,” the complaint said. It went on to accuse the governor and legislature of “employing the machinery of the State” to damage the company. “State leaders have not been subtle about their reasons for government intervention. They have proudly declared that Disney deserves this fate because of what Disney said.”

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  34. DIFi’s memory problems actually predate this, although she has new problems like partial face paralysis

    and the connection may (also) be personal

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/us/politics/feinstein-illness-shingles-senate.html

    The senator’s relationship with Ms. Pelosi’s daughter goes back decades. The Pelosi family grew up across the street from Ms. Feinstein, people close to her said, and Ms. Prowda has been close with Ms. Feinstein since she was a child, looking up to her as a maternal figure.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  35. There is a growing sense, too, that the city’s progressive political class has failed its citizens. Violent attacks in wealthy neighbourhoods, including the fatal stabbing of Cash App founder Bob Lee and a burglary at the home of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi which left her husband in hospital with a fractured skull, were interpreted as symbols of pervasive lawlessness.

    Bob Lee’s murder doesn’t belong with the others (except that the location may have been picked on purpose to mislead investigators) but is more of a “high class” Columbo episode type murder.

    He was probably killed because a man suspected that the married Lee was carrying on an affair with his sister or wanted to.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  36. I was surprised to hear that the Rep had called off negotiations. Maybe they want to call Biden’s bluff.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  37. and prove him wrong.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  38. I was surprised to hear that the Rep had called off negotiations.

    I’m not. The House has already passed an increase in the debt limit. What is there to talk about?

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  39. While the election of trump was the best short term for the democrat party base. Discrediting the clinton corporate establishment wing of the party and getting AOC and the squad elected. The supreme court abortion ruling is the best long term for the party base forcing more militancy out of the biden wing of the party then their donors want and doing for the democrat party what gun control militancy has done for the republican party.

    asset (0811db)

  40. Buried in Disney’s complaint against DeSantis is something surprising. Numerous quotes taken from “The Courage to be Free” appear to support the company’s central allegation: that the Republican governor improperly wielded state power to punish Disney’s speech criticizing his policies, violating the First Amendment.

    Memoirs by presidential aspirants often lay out a blueprint for their coming candidacies. DeSantis’s does, too. It boasts extensively about his war on Disney to advertise how he would marshal the powers of the presidency against so-called woke elites.

    Disney’s lawsuit cites exactly these passages. DeSantis — who signed a law taking control of Disney’s special self-governing district, and moved to nullify the company’s efforts to work around it — repeatedly flouts the truth: These were retaliation against Disney for opposing his “don’t say gay” law limiting classroom discussion of sex and gender.
    ……….
    ……….To get around the obvious First Amendment problem, DeSantis insists his moves were legitimate because they targeted special Disney privileges originally created by government.

    But that doesn’t justify the revocation of those privileges specifically as retaliation for speech, as David French argues in the New York Times. French notes that Disney’s case is strong and raises serious First Amendment questions in spite of government’s role in initially creating its unique arrangement.
    …………

    Source

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  41. The Washington Post titled this AP story the “Mississippi miracle”:

    Mississippi went from being ranked the second-worst state in 2013 for fourth-grade reading to 21st in 2022. Louisiana and Alabama, meanwhile, were among only three states to see modest gains in fourth-grade reading during the pandemic, which saw massive learning setbacks in most other states.
    . . .
    These Deep South states were not the first to pass major literacy laws; in fact, much of Mississippi’s legislation was based on a 2002 law in Florida that saw the Sunshine State achieve some of the country’s highest reading scores. The states also still have far to go to make sure every child can read.

    (Following Jeb Bush leads to better reading skills. Even in Mississippi.)

    The New York Times had the story earlier.

    Neither article describes the process that produced these results, but it seems likely that it was bipartisan.

    You can look at the AAEP data for all the states here. (You should be prepared for some surprises.)

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  42. NAEP, of course (National Assessment of Educational Progress.)

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  43. They are resuming negotiations.

    Main sticking point is spending cap.

    Biden is not opposed to one that won’t matter much,

    Sammy Finkelnan (692f37)

  44. Mr. Theiner has a good rundown on Bakhmut and the Ukrainian strategy of making the Russians bleed for every square inch. This only works if the kill ratio is five or more dead Russians to every dead Ukrainian, which appears to be the case.
    It’s brutal, but it’s sucking up Russian resources in this minimally strategic town while Ukrainians are still able to attack on other fronts.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  45. These companies and governments are doing it knowingly, and in many cases openly.

    A number of German industrialists were jailed at Nuremberg, notably board members of IG Farben (which supplied Zyklon B) and Krupp (which supplied weapons). The West may not be able to reach Putin after this is over, but there are these fellow travelers who don’t have the same refuge.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  46. Underestimating Trump is the biggest mistake a Republican candidate can make.

    Second biggest. Acting as if he was a legitimate candidate is the worst mistake they can make. Every hand should be raised against him, and all should agree to support an independent if Trump is nominated. Nominate him again and be damned.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  47. The Lake Nona complex would have included several buildings employing 2,000 Disney workers that would have been relocated from California to Florida.

    Those 2000 jobs would have cost Florida $570 million in subsidies. Who’s the loser?

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  48. My first thought was, he lied in every word,
    That hoary cripple, with malicious eye
    Askance to watch the working of his lie
    On mine, and mouth scarce able to afford
    Suppression of the glee, that pursed and scored
    Its edge, at one more victim gained thereby.

    Or, maybe Johnny Paycheck said it better. It more than annoys me when those corporate assholes entice and coerce communities with “jobs”.

    nk (bb1548)

  49. The problem in the debt discussion is that Democrats think they can close the $1.37 trillion between taxes and spending (2022) by soaking the rich. That’s over 5% more of 2022 GDP they want to add in taxes, giving a tax burden of about 24% of GDP.

    The federal government has never collected that large a percentage of GDP in its history. Since 1933 it has occasionally touched 20%, but never over — even when the top tax rate was 90%.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  50. “This plane [the A-10] can’t see far and is very slow. There are a lot of them in the USA, but they don’t fight. They are old, they have no spare parts, and it is impossible to maintain them,” Reznikov continued in his interview with Liga. “I discussed these planes [with U.S. officials] back in March of last year.”

    The Air Force has been saying this about the A-10 for the last 30 years, to add to its justification of the failing F-35 program. The A-10 has been used in every American war since Desert Storm and to great effect. Is it slow and nearsighted? Perhaps, but that’s is part of the &^#$ing SPEC for supporting infantry, who are also slow and nearsighted.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  51. The fairest and best way to avoid more government debt is simple, but difficult. Everybody takes a haircut. Everybody. Defense, Medicare, you name it.

    Once you get into “this program, but not that” then it’s just a never-ending, grandstanding, poo-flinging argument.

    norcal (15fce4)

  52. DeSantis is going down a populist pathway I have no love for.

    As AllahNick points out today in The Dispatch: TFB, that is where the party is now. The debate is not over policy, but over character.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  53. Despite what policy disagreements you might have, is it not obvious that Trump’s character and ability to lead is inferior to, well, anyone?

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  54. Despite what policy disagreements you might have, is it not obvious that Trump’s character and ability to lead is inferior to, well, anyone?

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/19/2023 @ 5:49 pm

    To people who reason? Yes. Not so much for those who operate on pure emotion, who got a thrill when Trump descended the escalator and implied that most illegal immigrants are criminals and rapists.

    norcal (15fce4)

  55. Oh, my!

    DeSantis Lawyers Ask Judge in Disney Case to Recuse Himself
    They argued that Judge Mark E. Walker’s comments in two unrelated proceedings displayed a bias toward the company.

    No, no, one does not do that.

    nk (0b14ec)

  56. To echo norcal, if DeSantis wants Trump’s supporters, we don’t want DeSantis.

    nk (0b14ec)

  57. “The fairest and best way to avoid more government debt is simple, but difficult. Everybody takes a haircut. Everybody. Defense, Medicare, you name it.

    Once you get into “this program, but not that” then it’s just a never-ending, grandstanding, poo-flinging argument.”

    There are 2 problems with this:
    1. Republicans only care about the debt/deficit when a Democrat is in the Whitehouse. When Trump was president, they happily voted to raise the limit every time.
    2. During Obama’s administration, they did close to what you’re asking. The budget sequestration affected a wide range of programs (Social Security and Medicaid were protected, Medicare was somewhat protected). Afterwards, the Republican talking point was that these cuts “destroyed” the military.

    Basically what I’m saying is that the Republicans can’t be trusted.

    Davethulhu (fec3f0)

  58. DeSantis is angling to run to the right of Trump on abortion, guns and more
    …………..
    Abortion is not the only issue where DeSantis has found space to the right of the former president. As he readies a campaign for the White House, DeSantis has staked out positions on guns, immigration and the Covid-19 vaccine that appeal to the most conservative voters in the party.

    Those new laws, pushed through with the help of Republican supermajorities in the state legislature, are part of a larger effort by DeSantis to leverage his political power into policy victories that could outshine any other potential rival in a presidential primary.
    ………..
    ………. DeSantis stood by (Florida’s abortion) law and offered a window in how he could use it to drive a wedge between Trump and anti-abortion voters.

    “Protecting an unborn child when there’s the detectable heartbeat is something that almost probably 99% of pro-lifers support,” he said.
    ………….
    Trump in New Hampshire also defended his decision as president to unilaterally ban bump stocks, an attachment that enables a semiautomatic rifle to fire sustained bursts of ammunition. Trump deflected a question from a member of the audience about his Second Amendment bona fides by suggesting the National Rifle Association had also supported the ban. The NRA did not return a request for comment.

    Never Back Down, a super PAC supporting DeSantis’ political aspirations, pounced on the answer. The organization characterized Trump’s modest gun safety measure on Twitter as “gun control” and posted a video of the former president seeming to embrace other restrictions on firearms like red flag laws, which allow courts to intervene and remove firearms from people determined by law enforcement to be a threat to themselves or others.

    DeSantis, meanwhile, urged lawmakers to lift one of the few restrictions on guns in Florida, a requirement for someone to obtain a permit and training before carrying a concealed gun in public. He said he would go further by allowing the open carry of firearms in public — a step too far for even Republican lawmakers in his state despite persistent lobbying from gun advocates. DeSantis has also said he opposes the bipartisan legislation passed in Florida in the aftermath of the Parkland high school mass shooting that established the state’s red flag law and raised the age to own a rifle to 21.
    ………….

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  59. nk (0b14ec) — 5/19/2023 @ 6:01 pm

    I don’t know how much of this is strategy by DeSantis to win the primary, and how much he truly believes. It might be best to just sit this one out, let Trump get the nomination, and watch him lose again.

    That, however, runs the risk of both chambers going majority Democrat, which is another can of worms.

    norcal (15fce4)

  60. He said he would go further by allowing the open carry of firearms in public — a step too far for even Republican lawmakers in his state despite persistent lobbying from gun advocates.

    Rip Murdock (8accf8) — 5/19/2023 @ 6:23 pm

    Here’s what’s funny about Nevada. Open carry is perfectly legal, and no training or permit is required. Concealed carry requires training and a permit.

    Go figure.

    norcal (15fce4)

  61. Here’s what’s funny about Nevada. Open carry is perfectly legal, and no training or permit is required. Concealed carry requires training and a permit.

    That was initially the law in Florida in 1987, when it first allowed public carry by private citizens. But the wimps went and “clarified” it.

    nk (0b14ec)

  62. No, no, one does not do that.

    Unless it is absolutely true. See U.S. v. Microsoft Corporation

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  63. To echo norcal, if DeSantis wants Trump’s supporters, we don’t want DeSantis.

    nk, do you think it is possible for the GOP to throw off the populist platform and return to the status quo ante?

    If not, take your pick of better Trumps.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  64. Open carry is perfectly legal, and no training or permit is required. Concealed carry requires training and a permit.

    It is also the law in New Mexico now, but the Democrats who utterly control this 55-45 state* intend to change that and impose lot of new gun laws.

    ———
    better than that in years which do not have Trump.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  65. Republicans only care about the debt/deficit when a Democrat is in the Whitehouse

    Democrats don’t care about it EVER.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  66. Those 2000 jobs would have cost Florida $570 million in subsidies. Who’s the loser?

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/19/2023 @ 5:16 pm

    That assumes that the 2000 jobs (average salary $120k) wouldn’t have an economic impact that exceeds the subsidy. It could very well be that the spending by the employees would exceed the $570M tax credit (which was spread over 20 years). The tax credit amount is a pittance to Disney out of recent cost estimates of $1.3B.

    Florida officials have repeatedly pointed to the Lake Nona development as an example of economic vibrancy in Orlando, which suffered mightily during the pandemic. Noting that hotel chains and retailers were moving into the Lake Nona area in anticipation of Disney’s arrival, The Orlando Business Journal in January called the complex “a major economic driver for the region.”

    Source

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  67. raised the age to own a rifle to 21.

    Soon to be unconstitutional, along with most state-level restrictions.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  68. That assumes that the 2000 jobs (average salary $120k) wouldn’t have an economic impact that exceeds the subsidy.

    I didn’t say who the loser was, so I assumed nothing. I said that YOUR assumption that Florida was the loser is suspect.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  69. The populist platform is the status quo ante.

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  70. I said that YOUR assumption that Florida was the loser is suspect.

    The only time I said Florida was a loser is when Disney beats them in court.

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  71. Democrats don’t care about it EVER.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/19/2023 @ 6:47 pm

    For some reason, a Democratic President and a Republican Congress seems to do the trick. Witness the balanced budget under Clinton.

    I still remember Clinton saying that “the era of big government is over” in his SOTU speech. Fortunately, Clinton was more concerned with his nether regions than ideology.

    norcal (15fce4)

  72. Vermont Gov. Phil Scott (R) has taken himself out of the running……

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  73. Here’s what’s funny about Nevada. Open carry is perfectly legal, and no training or permit is required. Concealed carry requires training and a permit.

    Go figure.

    norcal (15fce4) — 5/19/2023 @ 6:27 pm

    What’s the rationale for the (probably unconstitutional) distinction?

    Soon to be unconstitutional, along with most state-level restrictions.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/19/2023 @ 6:51 pm

    As will the federal age restrictions to purchase handguns.

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  74. “Democrats don’t care about it EVER.”

    The majority of Republicans don’t actually care about it either. It’s performative.

    Davethulhu (fec3f0)

  75. RIP actor Rick Dalton (age unknown).

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  76. What’s the rationale for the (probably unconstitutional) distinction?

    Rip Murdock (8accf8) — 5/19/2023 @ 8:40 pm

    No idea. A vestige of cowboy culture?

    norcal (15fce4)

  77. The Air Force has been saying this about the A-10 for the last 30 years, to add to its justification of the failing F-35 program. The A-10 has been used in every American war since Desert Storm and to great effect…….

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/19/2023 @ 5:42 pm

    That is true, except the battlefield environment the US faced then is very different than the battlefield environment in Ukraine. The US had air dominance during the Gulf wars and Afghanistan. No one has air superiority over Ukraine. Anti-air missile defenses have changed markedly over the last 40 years since the A-10 was introduced.

    And it wouldn’t be experienced American pilots using the A-10 in Ukraine, it would be untrained and inexperienced Ukrainian pilots whose problems start with reading the English language readouts on their cockpit displays.

    The best outcome would be to intervene directly using NATO pilots to fly NATO aircraft in support of Ukraine, but that is absolutely impossible to consider.

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  78. I am waiting for a democrat to run on we know the solutions to our problems. Implementation of those solutions is the problem because republicans prevent the solutions from being implemented. The problem solves itself if elected.

    asset (0358fd)

  79. I am waiting for a democrat to run on we know the solutions to our problems. Implementation of those solutions is the problem because republicans prevent the solutions from being implemented. The problem solves itself if elected.

    Uh-uh. Because the American people absolutely loved the first two years of Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden when Democrats had complete control of the Executive and Legislative branches. In your world I guess the voters didn’t immediately respond to this by electing Republicans.

    The incompetence of Democrats really isn’t the fault of Republicans, no matter how badly you want to believe otherwise.

    JVW (6bdb00)

  80. Bad News for RFK, Jr.:

    ….……..
    Americans’ overall judgment about the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccines remain overwhelmingly positive with no decline in ratings since the last time they were measured four years ago, prior to the coronavirus outbreak.

    Nearly nine-in-ten U.S. adults (88%) say the benefits of MMR vaccines outweigh the risks. This share is the same as when previously asked in both 2019 and 2016.
    ………..
    A large majority (72%) of Americans rate the preventative health benefits of these vaccines as very high or high on a five-point scale ranging from very low to very high. The share of Americans who see the benefits of MMR vaccines as high is down 6 percentage points from 2019 (78%) though it is about the same as in 2016 (73%).

    About two-thirds of Americans (64%) say the risk of side effects from MMR vaccines is very low or low, while 35% say the risk is at least medium. ………
    ………….
    A smaller majority of Republicans and independents who lean to the GOP (57%) now favor requiring MMR vaccination for children to attend public school, while 42% say, instead, that parents should be able to decide not to vaccinate their children, even if it may create health risks for others. Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, the balance of opinion among Republicans favored childhood vaccine requirements (79% vs. 20%).

    Democrats’ broad support for vaccine requirements has held steady over the last four years: 85% support school-based vaccine requirements, roughly the same as in 2019 (86%).

    As a result of changing views among Republicans, support for requiring childhood vaccines among the general public now stands at 70%, down from 82% when last asked in 2019.
    ………….
    Large majorities of Republicans (86%) and Democrats (92%) say that, overall, the benefits of MMR vaccines outweigh the risks. Views among these two groups were nearly identical in 2019 (89% and 88%, respectively).

    Modest differences have also emerged between partisans in their independent assessments of the preventative health benefits and side effects risk of MMR vaccines. A larger majority of Democrats (77%) than Republicans (67%) now describe the preventative health benefits of MMR vaccines as high. This gap has been driven by a 12-point drop among Republicans in the share who see high preventative health benefits since 2019.
    …………

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  81. I hope the orcas in Puget Sound don’t learn this behavior.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  82. The Trendlines DeSantis Doesn’t Want to See
    ………..
    Would grassroots leaders active within the party move in the same way as other GOP voters, or were they more inured to the news cycle and take a different view of Trump’s legal challenges? The short answer: They moved, with DeSantis support softening and Trump a beneficiary.

    My survey of (3,000 GOP county chairs in every county in the country) is part of an effort to track the “invisible primary” for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination — the action that takes place before the first ballots are cast and which will do much to determine the eventual winner. County chairs are figures who will play a key role in shaping the race. They are highly attentive to the party’s internal dynamics and are influential in local GOP circles; they offer the kind of endorsements that candidates are eager to collect.
    ………….
    The first question I asked was simply whether the chairs had committed to supporting a candidate, and if so, whom that might be.

    ……….. Trump’s position has improved considerably, going from 16 to 24 percent among chairs who chose a candidate, while DeSantis has dropped from 18 to 13 percent. Support for other candidates has also declined, from 14 to 10 percent.
    …………
    ……….. Which candidates are county chairs considering for the presidency? Here, DeSantis still showed some considerable strengths, with 67 percent of chairs saying they’re open to a DeSantis nomination. However, that does signal a slight softening in support; DeSantis was at 73 percent in the last survey. Moreover, Trump is now at 51 percent, up from 43 percent.

    DeSantis still has more county chairs interested in him than in Trump, but his advantage has narrowed considerably. Nikki Haley’s numbers have also dropped slightly………

    Finally, I asked the chairs whom they do not want to see as their presidential nominee. ……….Only Trump has seen the share of county chairs opposed to him drop significantly, going from 39 to 29.5 percent. ……….. DeSantis’ support, notably, has broken apart, as this figure makes clear. Only four of the eleven chairs who were backing him in February were still with him in April; three went to Trump and other candidates, and the rest became undecided. Trump, meanwhile, lost no backers and actually gained some from other candidates.
    ……………

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  83. RIP author Martin Amis (73). Son of writer Kingsley Amis.

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  84. Creepy:

    …………
    Veritas Society, a nonprofit fund established by the organization Wisconsin Right to Life, was using precise geolocation data to target those ads from as early as November 2019 through late last year, according to a Veritas Society website, several former employees of an advertising-technology company it used to target the ads, and other people familiar with the matter. The ad company told Veritas Society it had to stop because it was violating the company’s rules about targeting sensitive locations, the former employees said.

    The campaign used a common digital-advertising technology called geofencing to extract the unique device identifiers of phones carried into Planned Parenthood and other abortion providers, the people said. It then used those device IDs to target those people on popular social-networking sites such as Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat with antiabortion messaging. All three social networks said the ads violated their policies and said future such campaigns would be rejected.

    When users clicked on the targeted ads, they were directed to a site registered to Veritas Society that gave them two options: “I want to undo the abortion pill” or “I am thinking about the abortion pill.” That site could track users who answered and target ads to them as they moved around the web.

    The executive director and other officers of both Veritas Society and Wisconsin Right to Life didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment. ……..
    ………..
    …………Veritas Society said it could identify phones on the premises of abortion clinics and extract their device IDs—the unique identifiers given by Apple and Google to mobile devices to help advertisers target consumers across phone apps and websites.
    ……………
    “We captured the cell phone IDs of women who visited all Planned Parenthood locations in Wisconsin along with similar locations and their associated parking areas,” the Veritas Society website said. The documents also depicted Planned Parenthood locations in Montclair, N.J., Fresno, Calif., Tallahassee, Fla., and Colorado Springs, Colo., as having been geofenced.
    ……….
    Veritas Society ran an initial campaign in Wisconsin in late 2019 and 2020, according to the archived website. The nonprofit was raising money for a nationwide campaign as recently as last year and seeking other antiabortion groups as partners, according to the website. Veritas Society also geofenced abortion clinics and bought ads in Arkansas, according to people familiar with the campaign.
    ………….

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  85. She’s auditioning to be Trump’s VP. That’s the closest she’ll ever get to the Oval Office.

    If she’s Trump’s VP. that’s true. But she’s already moving away from Trump.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  86. The best outcome would be to intervene directly using NATO pilots to fly NATO aircraft in support of Ukraine, but that is absolutely impossible to consider.

    US pilots flew against Japan (in US-built fighters) as the Flying Tigers. They flew against Germany for the RAF during the Blitz. But please to call them “volunteers.”

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  87. But (Darling Nikki’s) already moving away from Trump.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/20/2023 @ 12:06 pm

    Evidence?

    Rip Murdock (8accf8)

  88. No one has air superiority over Ukraine. Anti-air missile defenses have changed markedly over the last 40 years since the A-10 was introduced.

    Well, once they have F-16s that might change, at least over active ground combat which is the only place you’d use A-10s. AA missiles are indeed better, although at lot more effective against planes flying higher than ground support tasks require. Shoulder-fired missiles would be the bigger threat.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  89. Evidence?

    Her position on J6 for starters. Back in Item 3.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  90. RIP actor Rick Dalton (age unknown).

    He appears to have been 90.

    Then again where fact and fiction leave off is hard to know.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  91. I am waiting for a democrat to run on we know the solutions to our problems. Implementation of those solutions is the problem because republicans prevent the solutions from being implemented. The problem solves itself if elected.

    Kevin Williamson destroys the “tax the rich” meme by pointing out that returning to the tax policies of the 1950s would INCREASE the deficit.

    One of the most ignorant and dishonest of the Democratic talking points that show up during budget debates like the one we currently are having is: “We could fix our budget problems if only we would return to the tax policies we had in the 1950s and 1960s, a time of widely shared prosperity with top tax rates above 90 percent for the rich.”

    That is a fun talking point. My progressive friends love it. But it is a lie.

    In the 1950s, there were very high statutory tax rates, meaning that a taxpayer could, in theory, pay a top marginal rate of 92 percent. But this applied to very few taxpayers and to a very small share of their income. That is why when you look at the data from a more meaningful economic perspective, U.S. taxes were a lot lower in the 1950s than they are today: Federal tax revenue from 1950-60 averaged only 16.8 percent of GDP, as opposed to the 19.6 percent of GDP collected in federal taxes in 2022. (GDP terms are useful because they capture the fact that our population is both larger and richer.)

    Which is to say, if we had 1950s taxes (16.8 percent of GDP) and 2022 spending (25.1 percent of GDP), then our deficit would be a lot worse—not 5.5 percent of GDP but 8.3 percent of GDP; conversely, if we had 1950s spending (17.2 percent of GDP) and 2022 taxes (19.6 percent of GDP), we would be running a large surplus.

    There is much to admire about Eisenhower-era government in the U.S., but the idea that Eisenhower-era tax policies would enable Biden-era spending is not supported by the actual economic data

    But read the whole thing. Our problem is we are spending too much, not that we are taxing too little.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  92. Biden doesn’t really care about deficits as he won’t be around to be put on trial when the economy collapses.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  93. #NeverTrump ought to hold a convention now and pick a single candidate to go up against Trump and DeSantis. Instead we are starting to see a bunch of opportunists planning for 2028 and trying to use this contest for name recognition.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  94. @93, you might be right, but I think NeverTrump is probably smeared across the spectrum. Some may actually like DeSantis enough. Others want a moderate like Sununu. Others like someone more Right but not as abrasive as DeSantis, like Haley or Scott. Still others might prefer someone more seasoned and adult like Hutchinson. It’s hard to even decide because they’ve said so little and it’s hard to place who’s actually running for VP or who’s practice running for 2028 or beyond (ok, Hutchinson we know is running for real but at 72 he’s getting a little long in the tooth).

    I can see arguments for all of them. Sununu who might be the smartest of the bunch has the toughest road as a social moderate, but he has the greatest chance of cross-party appeal. Democrats will vote for him; they probably won’t vote for Haley or Scott in numbers. If you are talking about pulling someone in off the street, like Ryan or Manchin, that’s a tough road too. Does Ryan want to cut his GOP roots and make it virtually impossible to re-enter into GOP politics again (at 53 he still has legs)?

    I think we are all anxious, but it still is really really early. A lot can still yet play out. I think drama will be with us for the next 17 mos. We may need to wait until the first few primaries to see much coalescing on the GOP side. Why drop if Trump may get indicted out of contention and DeSantis’ support might evaporate? But it is true that there can only be so many lanes….and I can’t see Haley and Scott being viable. I can’t see Pence being viable period. Sununu probably isn’t viable but between him and Christie they may make the best arguments of not being Trump and why we need to move away from him. This may not be fun for the impatient….

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  95. Correction to 94, Haley and Scott BOTH being viable

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  96. Her position on J6 for starters. Back in Item 3.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/20/2023 @ 12:21 pm

    Where was Trump mentioned in her statement? I must have missed it.

    Don’t worry, this isn’t her final statement on January 6th. It will change again and again and again, depending on the on TrumpWorld’s reaction. It will certainly not improve her polling among Republican primary voters.

    Rip Murdock (2c0ecf)

  97. #NeverTrump ought to hold a convention now and pick a single candidate to go up against Trump and DeSantis.

    Trump and DeSantis?
    Speaking as a NeverTrumper ever since he dipped his toe into Republican presidential waters in 2011, my pick is the person who can beat Trump in the upcoming primaries.
    If that person is DeSantis (and right now he’s the leading non-Trump candidate), I’ll hold my nose and pull the lever for him.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  98. Aaron Blake thinks that Chris Christie might take revenge on the Loser.

    Yet signs are building that Christie will again decide to run for president at what is decidedly the wrong time — even more than 2016 was. And while he has insisted this isn’t just a kamikaze mission to take down Donald Trump, it’s difficult to see how it could amount to much else.

    Despite Christie’s insistence, there is no question that he has motivation to go there, that he’s demonstrated a talent for going there, and that he increasingly is going there.

    It’s a pleasant thought. I’ll wait to see just how plausible it is, after Christie officially begins his campaign — assuming he does.

    (Possibly significant detail: “Christie has even blamed Trump for giving him a coronavirus infection that landed him in intensive care in late 2020, and he said Trump never called to check on him.”)

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  99. Ewwwwww……

    Rip Murdock (2e3548)

  100. As I recall, Jim, Christie said he’d still vote for Trump if nominated. I don’t take him seriously.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  101. #100 From the column:

    Just last week, Christie called Trump “a puppet of Putin.” He’s targeted Trump over being found liable for sexual assault in the E. Jean Carroll case. He has knocked Trump for being “afraid” of debates. And unlike others, he’s lent credibility to his comments by saying he would never back Trump again.

    (First three links omitted, the fourth added.)

    The Axios article begins with this paragraph:

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is seriously considering a 2024 presidential campaign, told Axios that he will never support Donald Trump for president again — even if he wins the Republican nomination.

    Jim Miller (0e46f9)

  102. South Carolina Cage Match:

    ……….

    As (Senator Tim) Scott prepares to formally kick off his campaign Monday in North Charleston, roughly 20 miles from where (Nikki) Haley launched her bid in February, the long-overlapping circles of the two Republicans are coming sharply into focus — and stoking tensions in this early state where everyone knows everyone in local politics. The two barrier-breaking Republicans climbed the state’s political ladder on parallel timelines but never had to compete for the same job — until now.

    While allies insist they maintain a cordial relationship, and neither has said a bad word publicly about the other, some on both sides of the divide privately view the other with increasing wariness and see a heated competition for home state support, according to Republicans in the state. Both are considered long shots on their home turf against former president Donald Trump, and many doubt both will make it as far as the first-in-the-South GOP primary, making the scramble for support even more intense.
    ……….
    Neither Haley nor Scott attended the state GOP convention Saturday, a striking absence from an event that typically draws presidential candidates. Intraparty fighting was expected in the run-up to the gathering, prompting some Republicans to say it would be risky to enter such volatile terrain. ……
    ……….
    Haley has gained little traction since launching her bid and now must contend with a new opponent with a hefty $22 million war chest. And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is polling second to Trump in state and national surveys of the GOP race, is expected to officially enter the race in coming days, posing an additional challenge to those such as Haley and Scott, who are polling in the single digits (nationally).
    ………..

    The most recent poll (from late March) shows the following for presidential preference in SC:
    Trump 41
    DeSantis 20
    Haley 18
    Scott 7

    While they have great approval ratings in SC, (Haley 73%, Scott 69%; Trump 74%), it appears the good people of South Carolina just don’t want Darling Nikki or Tim Scott to be President.

    Rip Murdock (2e3548)

  103. @79 Wrong filibuster. 2009 dino democrats bought and paid for by healthcare industry when we had 60 like manchin/sinema today. remove fillibuster stack supreme court. We got romney care which was the republican answer to clinton single payer so of course it was lousy! Voter upset with democrats who wont “deal” with republican obstructionists. The left said NO to this pathetic excuse for national health care. Donor class told corporate establishment democrats this is better then nothing! Left said when people die (as they would from lack of health care) arrest republican obstructionists for murder and jail them to await trial with victims families as jury. Unlike some democrats I support the death penalty for politicians.

    asset (df21a9)

  104. New hampshire democrats balking in letting south carolina go first. Biden may not be on ballot for new hampshire primary if they go first.

    asset (df21a9)

  105. mr. former president donald trump, who softens your hands as you do the dishes, has a locked-in plurality of republican primary voters

    hopefully not a majority

    which nobody can take away from him

    for sure former governor nikki haley, who asked his permission to run (for real), was put in the race to splinter the non-trump vote

    however sincere former governor chris christie who definitely should not sunbathe in public may be, that’s all he’ll do too if he runs

    nk (21b5ba)

  106. RIP advertising executive Don Draper (97).

    Rip Murdock (2e3548)

  107. More Theiner on Bakhmut…

    A comparison to help you understand how strategically irrelevant Bakhmut is:

    Imagine an invader taking 10 months and suffering 70,000 casualties to take 98% of Grande Prairie in Alberta, Canada.

    If you have never before heard of Grand Prairie in Alberta – exactly! No one had heard about Bakhmut 10 months ago either. It’s because both cities are strategically irrelevant. If an invader takes Grand Prairie all he takes control of is that one city. Grand Prairie doesn’t open the way to Ottawa or Toronto, doesn’t cut Canda in half, it’s just a city, where the invader decided to waste his troops by the thousands.

    Bakhmut is a symbolic battle and one that will be remembered forever, but the smart Ukrainians got the russians to waste their troops in the strategically most stupid place in all of Ukraine.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  108. $22 million war chest

    Rip Murdock (2e3548) — 5/20/2023 @ 5:48 pm

    Please to show where place of chest like this.

    norcal (15fce4)

  109. 22 million war chest

    Rip Murdock (2e3548) — 5/20/2023 @ 5:48 pm

    Please to show where place of chest like this.

    norcal (15fce4) — 5/20/2023 @ 11:59 pm

    See here.

    Rip Murdock (2e3548)

  110. Does Ryan want to cut his GOP roots and make it virtually impossible to re-enter into GOP politics again (at 53 he still has legs)?

    1) He mostly has already. Certainly the Trumpists have cut the GOP’s ties with him.

    2) Teddy was the presumptive GOP candidate for 1920 (and would have been the nominee in 1916 had he allowed it), even though he ran a third party campaign in 1912. Sadly for TR, he dropped dead in 1919, leaving the GOP with a 10-ballot convention (the Democrats took 44 ballots).

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  111. I can’t see Haley and Scott being viable.

    If Trump and DeSantis are out of doing poorly, it will be to the advantage of Haley or Scott. At this point, I see Scott as the better campaigner of the two. We’ll see how he does Monday.

    A Trump/DeSantis/Scott choice going into March 2024 would be a tossup unless Trump has it all nailed down. The insurrection charges will hurt Trump outside his cult, how much I don’t know. I hope that the courts resist delaying tactics.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  112. If that person is DeSantis (and right now he’s the leading non-Trump candidate), I’ll hold my nose and pull the lever for him.

    A lot of people are resisting nose-holding. They want someone they can vote FOR. Especially people who used to be Republicans and held their nose to vote Biden in 2020.

    Why surrender so soon? You can actually vote for who you want in the primaries.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  113. RIP advertising executive Don Draper (97).

    Still alive and raising cain: Lazarus Long (111), born Woodrow Wilson Smith, senior member of the Howard Families.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  114. It is WAY too early in the campaign season to use polls as predictors of final results. Many people say “Trump” because they have no exposure to any other candidate. Some have begun to learn about DeSantis. Scott came as a very nice surprise to me (and Nikki as a disappointment).

    I think that more exposure for other serious candidates will change things, particularly if Trump decides to play the Hare and refuses to debate the Tortoises.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  115. Davethulhu (fec3f0) — 5/19/2023 @ 6:06 pm

    did close to what you’re asking. The budget sequestration affected a wide range of programs (Social Security and Medicaid were protected, Medicare was somewhat protected). Afterwards, the Republican talking point was that these cuts “destroyed” the military.

    Basically what I’m saying is that the Republicans can’t be trusted

    IIRC, it was the Democrats who wanted the cutbacks to include the military.

    But this does go to show that there is short term memory.

    Which makes sense since all these numbers change, as David Stockman explained to Ronald Reagan. Reagan wanted to stop making 10-year projections.

    Sammy Finkelnan (cd290d)

  116. It is WAY too early in the campaign season to use polls as predictors of final results. Many people say “Trump” because they have no exposure to any other candidate. Some have begun to learn about DeSantis. Scott came as a very nice surprise to me (and Nikki as a disappointment).

    Since the poll I cited is of Republican South Carolina voters, I assume they are familiar with Darling Nikki and Tim Scott. They just don’t want either one to be President.

    Rip Murdock (2e3548)

  117. Jim Miller (0e46f9) — 5/19/2023 @ 3:25 pm

    Neither article describes the process that produced these results, but it seems likely that it was bipartisan.

    Bipartisan?

    I expected to read something like phonics.”What’s the situation with teachers’ unions in Mississippi? Or charter schools?

    Sammy Finkelnan (cd290d)

  118. I think that more exposure for other serious candidates will change things, particularly if Trump decides to play the Hare and refuses to debate the Tortoises.

    LOL! I guess we have our fairy tale metaphors.

    Rip Murdock (2e3548)

  119. Rip Murdock (2e3548) — 5/20/2023 @ 5:48 pm

    While they have great approval ratings in SC, (Haley 73%, Scott 69%; Trump 74%), it appears the good people of South Carolina just don’t want Darling Nikki or Tim Scott to be President.

    People pick from among the serious candidates, even when they know much about the also-rans, even in polls.

    They may be worried about what are their foreign policy credentials.

    Sammy Finkelnan (cd290d)

  120. “Scott came as a very nice surprise to me (and Nikki as a disappointment).”

    What she is doing right now does not distinguish her. She needs to either up her rhetoric or drop out and wait for the next cycle. With Scott, we will see. He’s a nice guy at a time where the base isn’t interested in one. If there is a bully on the block, eventually you have to go toe to toe with that bully. Is Scott wired that way? I guess we’ll see. Christie is and has nothing to lose. Sununu maybe. We need a clear articulation why a third run by Trump is bad for the party. Someone. Anyone. Please.

    AJ_Liberty (46d411)

  121. Biden’s talking about the 14th amendment again, as Plan C, which it isn’t.

    If he sold debt a court should rule that he can sell them, but cannot legally obligate the United States to pay it back, and all payments for the over-the-limit bonds should be considered gifts to the federal treasury

    Congress may later decide to pay some or all of it back.

    Sammy Finkelnan (cd290d)

  122. Since the poll I cited is of Republican South Carolina voters, I assume they are familiar with Darling Nikki and Tim Scott. They just don’t want either one to be President.

    No, they’re just a bunch of poll-watchers wanting to “vote for the winner.”

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  123. LOL! I guess we have our fairy tale metaphors.

    I guess we have to have blinders on our views. Musn’t see anything outside the little box.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  124. The best single thing that could happen this year for America is Trump dropping dead.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  125. Both of the major political parties are obsessed with trying to prove that the other party, taken as a whole, is set to put the United States on a disastrously wrong course in the court of public opinion (truth and the possibility of alternative courses of action s be darned) and that’s the essence of their 2024 election strategy.

    Wrong in more than one way.. Not just wrong, but disastrous.

    Or they want the other party to, at lest in effect, concede that they were wrong until they caved.

    Sammy Finkelnan (cd290d)

  126. Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/21/2023 @ 11:03 am

    No, they’re just a bunch of poll-watchers wanting to “vote for the winner.”

    No, for the winner or the person who comes in second.

    Sammy Finkelnan (cd290d)

  127. But not a third or lower ranked choice.

    Because they want their vote to “count.”

    )(even or maybe especially, in a poll)

    Sammy Finkelnan (cd290d)

  128. Not just that the other party is disastrously wrong, but that theirs is the only course oof action. And they all engage in half truths or less.

    Sammy Finkelnan (cd290d)

  129. The ukrainians may be wanting to destroy the Wagner group, which is really evil (but not particularly skilled militarily) It’s the WagnerGroup that is attacking Bakhmut.

    Sammy Finkelnan (cd290d)

  130. No, they’re just a bunch of poll-watchers wanting to “vote for the winner.”

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/21/2023 @ 11:03 am

    We’ll see what happens on February 24, 2024. Neither Haley or Scott may be still in the running then.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  131. Trump Civil Litigation Watch:

    ………..
    The lawsuit by Trump Media and Technology Group, which owns the Truth Social platform, was filed Saturday night in Florida state court in Sarasota County (against the Washington Post) and accuses one of America’s most storied newspapers of publishing a story of libel and slander that the suit claims poses an “existential threat” to the social media company.

    The suit alleges the Post “published an egregious hit piece that falsely accused TMTG of securities fraud and other wrongdoing” and “has been on a years-long crusade against TMTG characterized by the concealment of relevant information in its possession.”

    “WaPo’s false criminal charges exposed TMTG to public ridicule, contempt and distrust, and injured TMTG’s business and reputation,” the suit said.
    ………….

    Comedy gold!

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  132. Rip Murdock (6098c9) — 5/21/2023 @ 11:36 am

    The Post article at issue.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  133. Rip Murdock (6098c9) — 5/21/2023 @ 11:36 am

    TMTG Is asking for $3.78 billion in damages.

    Comedy gold!

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  134. “No, they’re just a bunch of poll-watchers wanting to “vote for the winner.””

    I find it hard to imagine that two indictments of Trump…on charges far less nuanced than the Stormy Daniels payoffs…will not change the dynamics of the GOP primary. Would you bet against those dynamics at this point, especially with Georgia readying everyone’s calendars for the end of the summer? I wouldn’t. Yes, Trump has a near immutable 20% group that is all-in. But if we add in that DeSantis has not exactly sent thrills up anyone’s leg at this point, few ads have been made by anyone but Trump, and all speeches have been remarkably vanilla to this point, then there can be movement. It’s true that the GOP politicians have shown remarkably little courage to this point and the base has reflexively circled the wagon for Trump. But it is early….and I anticipate the big-dollar donors being spooked by the indictments. A lot of GOP electorate wanted an alternative to Trump not that long ago. I can’t be so cynical to say that absolutely nothing matters from this point forward. There is a case to be made. It’s only a question of the courage to make it.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  135. I find it hard to imagine that two indictments of Trump…on charges far less nuanced than the Stormy Daniels payoffs…will not change the dynamics of the GOP primary. Would you bet against those dynamics at this point, especially with Georgia readying everyone’s calendars for the end of the summer? …….

    It depends on how the other candidates (and the Trump caucus in the House) react to any indictments. So far they have either ignored the New York cases (both civil and criminal) or defended Trump. Only Asa Hutchinson (polling at 1%) has flat out said that Trump should withdraw from the race.

    I’ll bet Trump remains a candidate whether he’s indicted or not. He doesn’t need big dollar donors, if he wishes he can self-finance his campaign. His current donors are just suckers.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  136. 3.

    The Georgia prosecutor leading an investigation into former President Donald J. Trump and his allies has taken the unusual step of announcing remote work days for most of her staff during the first three weeks of August,

    She’s clearing a lot of time.

    If this were because of a possible indictment of Trump, couldn;t she decide what day he should appear in court later?

    Sammy Finkelnan (cd290d)

  137. His current donors are just suckers.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9) — 5/21/2023 @ 12:40 pm

    Ain’t that the truth. A billionaire who NEEDS YOUR MONEY to “save” the country and “fight”. Someone who can’t even admit he lost the election. What a con.

    P.T. Barnum was right.

    I received a warning, and my comment was deleted for being offensive, at a BYU sports chat board I frequent. Here was the comment:

    “I wonder what the Venn diagram looks like when comparing Trump supporters and professional wrestling fans.”

    norcal (15fce4)

  138. 46-year-old public club pro Michael Block is having a magical PGA Championship week, capped off by an even more magical day with a hole-in-one.

    Looks like he will finish tied for 15th, which is amazing. It is even more amazing to watch him humbly enjoy every moment.

    DRJ (39fa52)

  139. Excuses, Excuses:

    …………
    Josiah Colt, one of the first rioters to reach the Senate floor on Jan. 6, 2021, later pleaded guilty that year to obstructing Congress’ certification of Joe Biden’s White House victory.

    Also Wednesday, a ………. Las Vegas resident, Nathaniel DeGrave, who also entered the Senate gallery, pleaded guilty to conspiracy and assault charges last year.

    On Dec. 31, 2020, the (two men, along with a third, Ronald Sandlin) had discussed in a Facebook chat a plan for “shipping guns” to Sandlin’s home in Tennessee. Days later, Sandlin posted on social media a photo of Colt, who was lying in bed with his eyes closed and holding a handgun, with the caption: “My fellow patriot Josiah Colt sleeping ready for the boogaloo Jan 6th.” Boogaloo is a term some extremists use to refer to a second civil war. Colt replied to the post, “Ready for any battle,” followed by a laughing emoji.

    Colt, a 34-year-old from Meridian, Idaho, brought his pistol to a rally the day before the riot, but decided to leave it at a hotel on the morning of Jan. 6, authorities said. The three men watched on TV as Trump told his supporters in a speech before the riot to “fight like hell” or they were “not going to have a country anymore.”

    After the riot erupted, the men entered the Capitol through the Upper West Terrace doors. They went to a hallway outside the Senate gallery, where Sandlin led a charge against police officers as Colt entered, according to prosecutors.

    Colt shouted, “This is our House! This is our country! This is for the people!” before he jumped to the Senate floor. Sitting in a chair reserved for then-Vice President Mike Pence, as president of the Senate, Colt raised his fist as rioters cheered him on, prosecutors said. Colt opened a door and allowed dozens of other rioters to join him.

    DeGrave, who carried a can of bear spray in his pocket, called on others on the Senate floor to “take laptops, paperwork, take everything,” according to court papers
    …………
    Colt’s lawyers said in a court filing that Colt “is a good person who made a series of very bad choices based on misinformation and the emotional oratory of a demagogue.”
    ………..
    DeGrave’s lawyer said in court papers that DeGrave regrets “allowing himself to be drawn into the world of those claiming ‘political persecution’ as a result of their actions on January 6.”
    ………..

    Colt is the insurrectionist seen hanging from the Senate Gallery. He was sentenced to 15 months in prison and 36 months of supervised release.

    Nathaniel DeGrave was sentenced to three years in prison and 36 months of supervised release.

    Ronald Sandlin was sentenced to 5.25 years in prison and 36 months of supervised release.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  140. The GOP contenders should heed another PT Barnum quote:

    “No one ever made a difference by being like everyone else.”

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  141. Correction to first paragraph in post 139:

    Josiah Colt, one of the first rioters to reach the Senate floor on Jan. 6, 2021, later pleaded guilty that year to obstructing Congress’ certification of Joe Biden’s White House victory (was sentenced three years in prison).

    Rip Murdock (f48a81)

  142. It depends on how the other candidates (and the Trump caucus in the House) react to any indictments. So far they have either ignored the New York cases (both civil and criminal) or defended Trump.

    The rape case was more important. The so-called criminal case is literally trumped up, down to repetitive charges for the same “crime” that are a textbook case of overcharging. People who HATE Donald Trump, but don’t feel like striking down all Law to get at him, say it’s bogus.

    Only Asa Hutchinson (polling at 1%) has flat out said that Trump should withdraw from the race.

    Well, he should, but not because of the Stormy/Cohen charges. Sexual assault is an actual felony.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  143. Sexual assault is an actual felony.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/21/2023 @ 3:35 pm

    Something, of course, Trump was never convicted of.

    Rip Murdock (f48a81)

  144. Here’s what I’d like to see:

    Have a Republican primary debate with Trump, Christie, and the others. Christie goes after Trump, and vice-versa. Meanwhile, the other candidates debate like adults, all the while ignoring Trump and his shenanigans.

    It just might help viewers come to their senses.

    norcal (15fce4)

  145. Ignoring Trump’s “shenanigans” just empowers him. Also, it be very unwieldy to have any more than four or five candidates on the same stage (how did that work out in 2016?)

    There should be round robin “debates” (aka glorified press conferences) with no more than three candidates, and enough of them so everyone debates everyone at least once.

    I don’t think Gulliver will debate the Lilliputians. There is no benefit for him to do so. In fact, it might be better not to include Trump at all. Any debates might be more useful without him.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  146. 144, Chris Christie would be the guy at 2:09 to 2:19 of this clip.

    https://youtu.be/H_lijLYuw-o

    urbanleftbehind (2cc899)

  147. And he, not DJT, was the true killer of Jeb!
    https://youtu.be/RMw5GSd1bw0

    urbanleftbehind (2cc899)

  148. Something, of course, Trump was never convicted of.

    Statute of limitations. Still, he lost the civil case and that is an assignment of guilt. IF you don’t think that will give some women pause, think again. It may, however, make him more popular among his incel followers.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  149. Christie goes after Trump, and vice-versa.

    I’d prefer they all did. Make it known that he is unacceptable to them all. Someone who is afraid to call Trump a criminal has no business running for President. If they can’t stand the heat….

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  150. And he, not DJT, was the true killer of Jeb!

    And Marco, and Fiorina, and then they all kept their heads down.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  151. Texas Man Sentenced for Felony Assault on Law Enforcement During Jan. 6 Capitol Breach
    ……….
    Donald Hazard, 44, of Hurst, Texas, was sentenced to 57 months in prison for assaulting, resisting or impeding certain officers. Hazard pleaded guilty to the charge on February 16, 2023. In addition to the prison term, U.S. District Court Judge Randolph D. Moss ordered 36 months of supervised release and a restitution of $2,000.

    According to court documents, Hazard was the Sergeant-at-Arms of the Patriot Boys of North Texas, a self-described militia. In preparation for attending the rally in Washington, D.C. on January 6, 2021, Hazard gathered protective gear and other supplies including a military-style helmet, knuckle gloves, goggles, body armor, and pepper spray.

    On January 6, a newspaper photographer recorded Hazard marching in Washington D.C. In that video, Hazard stated “Make sure you get my face and everything on your news channel. I want the enemy to know exactly who is coming after them.”

    On Jan. 6, by approximately 2:00 p.m., Hazard was positioned under scaffolding that had been erected over the stairs on the northwest side of the U.S. Capitol building. As Hazard and other rioters attempted to climb the steps, they encountered United States Capitol Police (“USCP”) officers. Officer T.S. engaged with Hazard in order to force Hazard back; Hazard grabbed Officer T.S. as Hazard fell and continued to fight with Officer T.S. has the two fell down the stairs. Officer T.S. hit his head and was knocked unconscious. He also sustained injuries to his head, foot, and arm, some of which required surgery.

    ……….. Hazard also posted selfie-style videos, inside and outside of the Capitol building, in which he made statements such as “We’re here at the nation’s capitol and we’re storming it. We’re taking the Capitol. . . This is America baby.”
    …………
    ………… Valuable assistance was provided by, the Texas Department of Public Safety, the Hurst, Texas, Police Department, the Metropolitan Police Department, and the U.S. Capitol Police.
    …………

    Statement of Facts.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  152. Ignoring Trump’s “shenanigans” just empowers him. Also, it be very unwieldy to have any more than four or five candidates on the same stage (how did that work out in 2016?)

    They had 20 candidates and maybe 8 on stage at once. This time it won’t matter, so long as every time Trump shows up it’s about his J6 treason, his rapes, his hookers and his general assh0leness.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  153. IF you don’t think (the E. Jean Carroll verdict) that will give some women pause, think again. It may, however, make him more popular among his incel followers.

    I think it’s a bump in road for Trump’s support among women. It hasn’t made a difference in polling since then; some women probably see Carroll at best as a gold digger. Darling Nikki’s polling against Trump hasn’t changed.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  154. ……..so long as every time Trump shows up it’s about his J6 treason, his rapes, his hookers and his general assh0leness.

    A. Which is why Trump will skip the debates.

    B. Why Americans will tune out the debates.

    DeSantis, Vivek, Darling Nikki, or Scott won’t attack Trump, they don’t want to turn off his voters (or want a role in his Administration). Then you are left with the real inconsequential candidates.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  155. I do not believe E. Jean Carroll. What I hold against Trump in that whole fiasco is the way he made it a fiasco just by being himself. Nonetheless, I would be as deranged as he is if I held the conceit that I know how women think.

    nk (334df9)

  156. @norcal@137 Did they think you were offending the Trump voters or the professional wrestling fans?

    Nic (896fdf)

  157. DeSantis, Vivek, Darling Nikki, or Scott won’t attack Trump, they don’t want to turn off his voters (or want a role in his Administration). Then you are left with the real inconsequential candidates.

    You and Sammy should have a mind-reading contest.

    Besides, there are only four candidates (Trump, DeSantis, Scott and Nikki). Given Trump’s absence, they will indeed stick to a normal policy debate. Meanwhile Trump will be trying to delay his more serious trials (and the only one that really matters is the DC one). I expect federal judges to move expeditiously.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  158. You and Sammy should have a mind-reading contest.

    Your paragraph is equally speculative.

    Besides, there are only four candidates (Trump, DeSantis, Scott and Nikki). Given Trump’s absence, they will indeed stick to a normal policy debate. Meanwhile Trump will be trying to delay his more serious trials (and the only one that really matters is the DC one). I expect federal judges to move expeditiously.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  159. As is this:

    This time it won’t matter, so long as every time Trump shows up it’s about his J6 treason, his rapes, his hookers and his general assh0leness.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  160. Second Amendment News:

    New Jersey’s new gun law took another hit when a federal judge expanded her January order blocking much of its provisions from taking effect.

    U.S. District Judge Renée Marie Bumb (a G. W. Bush appointee) issued preliminary injunctions that lift the state’s ban on firearms at zoos, film sets, public gatherings, medical offices, and airports’ pickup/dropoff areas. The new order also prohibits the state from requiring gun owners to get liability insurance, a provision that was set to take effect July 1. Bumb also blocked a provision that would have required in-person interviews of character references for gun applicants.
    ………..
    Bumb let stand new, higher fees for people applying for gun licenses. She also noted that some of the new law, which included restrictions to keep guns out of sensitive places like schools and stop dangerous individuals from arming themselves, “generally adheres to that historical tradition and aims to keep firearms out of the hands of those who could harm the public.”
    …………
    She chastised state lawyers for failing to present “sufficient historical evidence as required by Bruen to support each aspect of the new legislation,” which essentially forced her to conduct her own “exhaustive” research.
    ………….

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  161. Second Amendment News II:

    From (a January 2023) Seventh Circuit decision in Miller v. Smith, by Judges Joel Flaum, Ilana Rovner, and Michael Brennan:

    Appellants Darin and Jennifer Miller are both licensed foster home caretakers, and Jennifer Miller is licensed to operate a home day care. Illinois statutes and regulations restrict how the Millers may possess and store firearms and ammunition in their home. The Millers challenge the constitutionality of those statutes and regulations. The district court granted summary judgment for the State of Illinois, and the Millers appealed.
    ………….
    We now remand for additional proceedings to receive the full benefit of the district court’s decision applying the “text, history, and tradition” test of Bruen. On remand, the district court should allow the parties to engage in further discovery, including seeking additional expert reports. The district court should then evaluate any subsequent motions under Bruen’s text, history, and tradition framework. In doing so, the court should permit briefing on and consider the interaction of Bruen and the unconstitutional conditions doctrine………

    Here are the plaintiffs’ allegations about the scope of the restrictions that they are challenging:

    Defendant Department of Children and Family Services’ (“DCFS”) regulations flatly ban law-abiding citizens who serve as foster caregivers from having firearms immediately operable for self-defense in their own homes at any time. 89 ILL. ADMIN. CODE § 402.8(o) provides:

    Any and all firearms and ammunition shall be stored and locked up separately at all times and kept in places inaccessible to children…. Loaded guns shall not be kept in a foster home unless required by law enforcement officers and in accordance with their law enforcement agency’s safety procedures.

    …………

    The “unconstitutional conditions” analysis asks whether the government may require people to agree not to exercise their constitutional rights as a condition of participating in a government-run program (such as a foster parenting program).

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  162. @norcal@137 Did they think you were offending the Trump voters or the professional wrestling fans?

    Nic (896fdf) — 5/21/2023 @ 7:06 pm

    That is funny!

    The owner of the site told me I was insulting the intelligence of Trump fans. Well, if the shoe fits…

    norcal (15fce4)

  163. What percent of republicans are trumpsters and what percent merely trump voters who might vote for others if trump not on ballot. To know these answers will answer most of your other questions. Hillary your likable enough. Obama. Desatan not so much. trump.

    asset (fac7ee)

  164. The current leader of the Republican Party wants default. Sorry, Kevin.

    https://www.thebulwark.com/why-trump-wants-u-s-to-default-on-debt/

    What positive function does Trump serve in this country? Usually, you can name something. I can’t figure anything for Trump. It is funny that Mr. Art of the Deal believes that maximalist don’t give an inch demands are the way to go in a high stakes negotiation. I guess that explains some of the bankrupcys.

    Appalled (1d7a64)

  165. Your paragraph is equally speculative.

    No, mine is more speculative, since yours isn’t speculative at all. It’s assertive and pretends to know people’s motives. THAT is mind-reading.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  166. This time it won’t matter, so long as every time Trump shows up it’s about his J6 treason, his rapes, his hookers and his general assh0leness.

    “as long as” isn’t speculative, it’s conditional.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  167. Bumb also blocked a provision that would have required in-person interviews of character references for gun applicants.

    Hmmm. I would hope that such would be legal in the context of a overall regulation allowing most people free access to guns, ammunition and CCW. The point of an [objective] in-person interview, as well as proficiency training, is to weed out those who have obvious deficiencies when it comes to gun ownership, such as developmental disabilities. It would be subject to other rules, such as a ban on racial discrimination.

    The current regime, where only overt acts can block access to guns, isn’t sustainable.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  168. The current leader of the Republican Party wants default. Sorry, Kevin.

    Default would force the government to drastically cut its spending and bonds would cost more and the loss of the dollar’s reserve status would make deficit spending far more difficult.

    But it would also cause a severe recession, if not a depression, irrespective of the fiscal actions it forces. In the end, social spending would increase, and cuts would be mostly in places like the military, border security, education, farm supports, NASA, “green” subsidies and the like. Taxes on the rich would go way up, and not in any evadible way. A national wealth tax would be imposed, with an amendment if necessary. There would be pressure on Medicare and Medicaid but this would probably be addressed by cutting payments to providers while mandating their acceptance of the coverage.

    The results would not really be conservative, as such an economic disaster would strengthen the social safety net while cutting most everything else out of the budget. Look what the lesser disaster of 2008 led to and you’d get an idea of the politics.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  169. If it’s necessary to give Biden cover for spending cuts, here’s a tax thing they should offer:

    1. Add a top rate of 39.6% for those making over $1 million.
    2. Allow up to $50,000 in SALT deductions.

    It’s a pretty good triangulation.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  170. #169

    When I said Sorry, Kevin, I meant Kevin McCarthy. So unless you are the Speaker of the House, I wasn’t talking about you. I can see why that wasn’t obvious, though.

    In any event, Trump really needs to take some time off to plot his legal strategy. The Biden folks will take all the necessary steps to make sure his primary campaign remains viable. Crashing the country just might make Republicans uneelectable in 2024 and Trump probably does not want that result.

    Appalled (1d7a64)

  171. No, I got that. I was commenting on why Trump’s apparent attitude is way stupid (however redundant that might seem).

    As for Trump, his legal strategy is to win the WH, then pardon everyone. I think it’s a no-brainer that his VP choice will be impeachment insurance.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  172. Tim Scott Begins Presidential Campaign (NYT free link)

    Tim Scott, the first Black Republican elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction, announced his campaign for president on Monday, adding to a growing number of Republicans running as alternatives to former President Donald J. Trump.

    Mr. Scott’s decision, which followed a soft rollout in February and the creation of an exploratory committee in April, came this time with a signal to the Republican establishment that he was the candidate to rally around if the party is to stop Mr. Trump’s nomination. He was introduced by the Senate’s No. 2 leader, John Thune of South Dakota, and will immediately begin a $5.5 million advertising blitz in the early nominating states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

    “Our party and our nation are standing at a time for choosing: Victimhood or victory? Grievance or greatness?” he planned to say at a packed and boisterous morning rally in the gym of his alma mater, Charleston Southern University, according to prepared remarks. “I choose freedom and hope and opportunity.”

    Long considered a rising star in the G.O.P., Mr. Scott, 57, enters the primary field having amassed $22 million in fund-raising and having attracted veteran political operatives to work on his behalf.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  173. The viability of a candidate is related to his ability to fund-raise. Scott needs a good showing in Iowa (which Trump lost in 2016) and New Hampshire and this will depend heavily on his ability to connect at a retail level. Coming from South Carolina, he’s had a lot of practice at that.

    I think that DeSantis announces in the next couple of days.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  174. “Victimhood or victory? Grievance or greatness?”

    I expect Trump to be particularly uncivil in his retribution for this.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  175. Kevin M —

    I am actually heartened that Scott seems to be adressing the MAGA in the room. The coding is not subtle.

    Appalled (1d7a64)

  176. “A time for choosing” isn’t an accidental choice of words.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  177. Kevin, isn’t it nice we have less of the capering nonsense? I mean, I feel as if I can say what I think and I won’t get snide commentary with movie quotations.

    Although I do like nk’s impressions.

    Hey, nk, we are watching “Forged in Fire” on the History Channel, and I always think about you and knifemaking. Wish you were a competitor!

    Simon Jester (ca4340)

  178. P.S. I really liked Tim Scott’s speech. But holy heck, he will get savaged by right and left both.

    Simon Jester (ca4340)

  179. #172 — General Flynn rather than Nikki Haley? Or, heck, MTG is tanned, crazy and ready.

    Appalled (1d7a64)

  180. Or, heck, MTG is tanned, crazy and ready

    And she’d make a MUCH better attack dog than Nikki. Or Boebert, who’s single now….

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  181. P.S. I really liked Tim Scott’s speech. But holy heck, he will get savaged by right and left both.

    Or Tim Scott’s 2022 speech at the Reagan Library, as part of the “A Time for Choosing” speaker series.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  182. “The current regime, where only overt acts can block access to guns, isn’t sustainable.”

    The difficulty is that mental health is not a fixed state and it’s a continuum. People can suffer life events, like divorce, getting fired, health setbacks, that can cause mental health to deteriorate. However, not all people who suffer some degree of depression become suicidal or homicidal. Add in that social media makes it easier to get caught up in obsessive fantasies that snowball. The Red Flag laws at least recognize that a person who qualified to have a gun three years ago might not be in the same mental state now. The problem is that loners by definition might not have people who can reasonably throw the flag.

    Let’s take Stephen Paddock who committed the Las Vegas mass shooting. The motive is not at all clear. He did have a history of depression possibly triggered by gambling losses, but there was a massive break with normalcy that caused him to slaughter a bunch of people at a concert. He had suitcases full of guns and ammo in his room which suggests some sort of accelerated fantasy, probably suicide related. Do we just live with this potential as a “cost” of liberty? Is there really nothing that can be done because of an amendment ratified in 1791, when mass shootings were not exactly a thing?

    Now most laws that target a unique and solitary situation probably miss the forest. However, I also think the notion of more concealed carry or open carry solving the problem just spins the roulette wheel of mental health further. Just saying “mental health” doesn’t exactly give a clear path forward. For some, not Kevin, it seems like a bit of a dodge…kick the can….suggestion.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  183. The point of an [objective] in-person interview, as well as proficiency training, is to weed out those who have obvious deficiencies when it comes to gun ownership, such as developmental disabilities. It would be subject to other rules, such as a ban on racial discrimination.

    Outside of an AI interviewer, no human can fully suppress their political or social biases. For example, if a 65-year old interviewer was speaking to a long-haired 20-year old gun purchaser, there could be biases on the interviewers part about “hippies.”

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  184. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/22/2023 @ 10:42 am

    Besides, there is no “text, history, and tradition” for mental health interviews to purchase firearms.

    We reiterate that the standard for applying the Second Amendment is as follows: When the Second Amendment’s plain text covers an individual’s conduct, the Constitution presumptively protects that conduct. The government must then justify its regulation by demonstrating that it is consistent with the Nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation. Only then may a court conclude that the individual’s conduct falls outside the Second Amendment’s “unqualified command.”

    Source.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  185. ““Victimhood or victory? Grievance or greatness?””

    This does crystallize it. It’s challenge to the Republican voter: what future do you want? Maybe like jiu jitsu, you let Trump himself amplify the point.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  186. Just saying “mental health” doesn’t exactly give a clear path forward.

    No, it does not, although for the most part we don’t even say that at this point. Still a proactive licensing regime that was not particularly restrictive (but probably not as insanely tolerant as driving) would be an improvement. Would it solve the problem entirely? Probably not as someone who really wants a weapon will find one.

    All I know is that there is an answer between than unlicensed concealed carry for everyone vs no guns for anyone. And the one that imposes the least continuing burden on 2nd amendment rights, while reducing mass shootings is the better one.

    I’m not sure I agree there were no mass killings in 1791. Just not the same kind as now.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  187. there could be biases on the interviewers part about “hippies.”

    Almost all remaining hippies are 65 or older. They live in places like Berkeley, Santa Cruz, Santa Monica or Ojai.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  188. Besides, there is no “text, history, and tradition” for mental health interviews to purchase firearms.

    There is plenty of history for banning weapons to mental incompetents. Sure, “in-person interviews” might not be that way, nor for that matter are many modern diagnoses or diagnostic tools. That does not mean the results become unusual criteria.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  189. Besides, Rip, you take your normal pessimum view, assuming that any licensing regime would be overly restrictive. It the CA DMV had attitudes like that, no white person could drive.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  190. “Besides, there is no “text, history, and tradition” for mental health interviews to purchase firearms.”

    I wonder how workable this SCOTUS test becomes if we can’t reasonably deter mentally unstable people from having firearms. I would think that for certain classes of mental problem…yes there’s some subjectivity…that the government might pass strict scrutiny. Society has a strong interest in protecting the individual and others. If it’s not an interview, then how else can mental instability be assessed?

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  191. Besides, Rip, you take your normal pessimum view, assuming that any licensing regime would be overly restrictive. …..

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 11:05 am

    It’s not my “pessimism”, it’s the standards set by the Supreme Court.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  192. “I’m not sure I agree there were no mass killings in 1791”

    It’s curious that you changed “mass shootings” to “mass killings”

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  193. It’s curious that you changed “mass shootings” to “mass killings”

    Because it was more mixed. Some were mass shootings (the Boston Massacre, for one). Others were unreported (e.g. enslaved people or inconvenient natives). And then there were highwaymen killing and looting travelers. It was as I said: different.

    But it wasn’t just happy yeomen farmers and peace throughout the land.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  194. If it’s not an interview, then how else can mental instability be assessed?

    Other than after they shoot up a school?

    And what constitutes due process in a red-flag situation. It it’s a court hearing, now is that fundamentally different from an in-person interview, other than the interviewers being court officials? Who I’m pretty sure can be biased or corrupt.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  195. If it’s not an interview, then how else can mental instability be assessed?

    <a href="“>Federal law prevents persons have been “adjudicated as a mental defective” or “committed to a mental institution” from possessing firearms, and their names are added to the NICS database. And each state has their own laws (Colorado, Indiana, Kentucky and New Hampshire are the exceptions). And red flag laws are opportunities for families to prevent their mentally ill members from possessing firearms.

    Courts are probably the best forum for these issues as the individual who is mentally ill or the subject of red flag order will have representation and the court is a neutral party.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  196. Fixed link for post 196.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  197. Question: If Biden, claiming the 14th Amendment views all appropriations as “debt”, tells the Treasury Department to issue new bonds over the Debt Limit:

    1. Will he be impeached?
    2. Should he be impeached?
    3. Will a court enjoin the selling of these bonds?
    4. Will a court order that debt service be prioritized?
    5. Both 3 & 4.
    6. Will Biden obey court orders?
    7. See 1 & 2.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  198. The Boston Massacre was equivalent to self-defense. And the six of the eight soldiers were acquitted.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  199. Biden will not invoke the 14th Amendment, he is a cautious politician (as we have seen vis a vis Ukraine), and doesn’t want to get ahead of the crowd.

    However, if he does, my opinion is that:

    1. Yellen will resign.

    2. He should/will be impeached (really he should be for a host of other reasons, which the Republicans have failed to do.)

    3. A court will enjoin the sale of the bonds, and Biden will follow the court order. He will say he tried, but the courts prevented him from doing so.

    4. The Supreme Court will punt, declaring it a political question.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  200. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/22/2023 @ 11:54 am

    5. Stock markets worldwide will crash.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  201. 1. Will he be impeached?

    Easy — he won’t be removed and he probably won’t be impeached.

    2. Should he be impeached?

    The GOP should not waste time on an impossibility, as they will need to address the way their world has been changed. This is a bell that does not get un-rung.

    3. Will a court enjoin the selling of these bonds?

    A court will do it, somewhere. And may well be overruled. I have a feeling this will get to the Supreme’s quickly.

    4. Will a court order that debt service be prioritized?

    I’d love to see this as an answer. It preserves full faith and credit while turning this into a garden variety government shutdown. (Congress always climbs down from government shutdowns)

    5. Both 3 & 4

    .
    If you do 4, you can do 3 without causing a ginormous cluster.

    6. Will Biden obey court orders?

    I think he has to. Ignoring them is a Constitutional earthquake on the order of Trump’s 1/6 coup attempt.

    7. See 1 & 2.

    He wouldn’t be removed but he should be. Rule of law and all that.

    Appalled (1d7a64)

  202. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/22/2023 @ 11:57 am

    6. Interest rates will skyrocket to well over 10%.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  203. “Some were mass shootings (the Boston Massacre, for one).”

    Hmm, given a crowd of more than a hundred was attacking the British soldiers with rocks and clubs, isn’t the Boston Massacre more an example of righteous self defense than something akin to the depraved Vegas shooting? Still, muskets requiring 30-60seconds to reload makes mass shootings somewhat problematic unless you have 4 or more buddies with you. If mass shootings were uniquely rare, why would there be a history of regulations needed to control them prior to the mass-produced multi-chamber revolver decades later?

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  204. Treasury maintains that the software has no way to prioritize certain payments over others. If that’s true, what are they supposed to do?

    aphrael (d21044)

  205. #205 — the software is unconstitutional, I guess. Personally, I think they say that to ensure a court does not order this solution, which does not suit their preferences.

    Appalled (1d7a64)

  206. @205

    Treasury maintains that the software has no way to prioritize certain payments over others. If that’s true, what are they supposed to do?

    aphrael (d21044) — 5/22/2023 @ 12:30 pm

    Imma call BS on them on this one.

    This stuff isn’t hard.

    whembly (d116f3)

  207. Stating the Obvious:

    ……….
    ……..(Trump) also has a purely self-serving reason to seek an economic catastrophe. You don’t need to be a stable genius to know that a bad economy typically hurts the incumbent in a presidential race. And Trump is desperate to get the immunity from prosecution that being elected president would provide him. He’s terrified of what’s coming from Special Counsel Jack Smith. So he’ll apparently nuke the world economy to protect himself.

    His MAGA minions in the House of Representatives also understand that voters’ first instinct for an economic crisis is to blame the incumbent president. But just in case that point was missed by the few GOP representatives who still worry a bit about what’s best for the country, Trump’s Truth Social post on Friday was sending them a message. He might as well have written, I’ll come after you if you vote to raise the debt ceiling.

    The dynamics of the House Republican Conference—with a small number of the most Trumpy members able to disrupt or end McCarthy’s speakership—make it difficult for McCarthy to give an inch in negotiations, especially now with Trump himself piping in. Which means that the risk that no agreement will be reached is very real. The American people would be nothing but collateral damage to Trump.
    ………
    ………This is the self-described “King of Debt” who spent like a drunken sailor during his four years in office, raising the national debt by $7.8 trillion.

    He’s not in it to keep America safe from overspending. He’s in it for himself.

    He doesn’t even mind telling us he’s a hypocrite. At the CNN town hall on May 10, host Kaitlan Collins confronted Trump with his prior statements on raising the debt ceiling:
    …….
    Trump can’t help saying the quiet part out loud. As he did by insanely bellowing in his January 2017 inaugural about “American carnage.” That is precisely what he seeks to bring about now, in service of his own interests.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  208. 137 and 156

    “I wonder what the Venn diagram looks like when comparing Trump supporters and professional wrestling fans.”

    What you mean here is that peoplemight believe both are real.’

    But Donald Trump was a character in professional wrestling in 2007

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3DufFa6fw8

    It broke into the news again when Donald Trump tweeted something from that with a newly appended message.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  209. This took place on April Fools Day, 2007.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  210. Treasury maintains that the software has no way to prioritize certain payments over others. If that’s true, what are they supposed to do?

    aphrael (d21044) — 5/22/2023 @ 12:30 pm</blockquote? Do it manually.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  211. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/18/us/politics/debt-ceiling-xdate.html

    …While Treasury has the most sophisticated cash management system in the world and employs teams of highly trained economists, its coffers are a blur of payments going out and tax revenues coming in. When its cash balance runs painfully low — as was the case on Wednesday, when the Treasury General Account started the day with less than $100 billion — pinpointing the X-date becomes even harder to predict. In many respects, that is because the moment that a default would occur is a moving target….

    ….In a report published on Thursday, the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank that carefully tracks federal spending, estimated that the government will spend $101 billion on June 1. Most of that money — $47 billion — will go toward Medicare, while the rest will be directed to veterans’ benefits, military pay and retirement, civil service retirement, and supplemental security income. On June 2, the government has to pay $25 billion in Social Security benefits and $2 billion for Medicaid.

    During those two days, the government is projected to spend about $140 billion and bring in only $44 billion in tax revenue, leaving the nation’s coffers operating on fumes…

    ….Another surprising reason that cash is running lower than some budget experts projected is that the I.R.S. is starting to operate more efficiently. As a result of the $80 billion that the agency received as part of the Inflation Reduction Act last year, it has been able to ramp up hiring and chip away at the backlog of unprocessed tax returns.

    Because the I.R.S. has been processing returns more quickly, it is also paying out refunds more quickly and draining the amount of available cash.

    If Ms. Yellen can find enough coins in Treasury’s couch to pay the bills until June 15, the United States could find itself with a bit of breathing room.

    That is because June 15 is when third-quarter payments are due from corporations and people who are required to pay their tax bills throughout the year or choose to make payments every three months to avoid having large bills due in April.

    The Congressional Budget Office said in a report last week [the week of May 8-12] that an expected influx of quarterly tax receipts on June 15 and the availability of additional extraordinary measures would probably allow the government to continue financing operations through at least the end of July.

    The government could receive approximately $80 billion in tax revenue that day. The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that those funds could be sufficient to keep the federal government afloat until June 30. At that time, Ms. Yellen would also have some additional extraordinary measures at her disposal — a suspension of investments into retirement funds for federal workers — that would allow her to unlock an additional $145 billion and potentially delay a default until well into July.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  212. ..(Trump) also has a purely self-serving reason to seek an economic catastrophe. You don’t need to be a stable genius to know that a bad economy typically hurts the incumbent in a presidential race.

    Provided you can blame the other party.

    I don’t think the game is being played on that simple a level. It’s not really good politics for anyone if the economy does..,something bad.

    Each party wants the other party to be proven, or appear to admit, it was wrong.

    A possible Democratic aim is to keep Kevin McCarthy as Speaker with Democratic votes, but this may just be a feint. Jeffries may prefer to try to become Speaker himself with some Republican votes. But that may not be possible. I think they’ll try to avoid having a contest for

    Anyway, the goal is to try to make the other party appear more irresponsible without making any more than minimal concessions themselves.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  213. Will a court enjoin the selling of these bonds?

    No it won’t.

    All that is needed is for someone to say that any money spent to buy these bonds will be considered a gift with no legal obligation to pay it back unless ratified after the fact by Congress (and the president)and then only to the extent Congress declares (in other words the interest rate might be reduced)

    How bad is everyone’s understanding of civics?

    Another out: The Federal Reserve Board could forgive some debt it has bought.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  214. The point of an [objective] in-person interview, as well as proficiency training, is to weed out those who have obvious deficiencies when it comes to gun ownership, such as developmental disabilities.

    Like the interviews in Blade Runner?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  215. Tim Scott’s Sugar Daddy:

    Oracle co-founder and Republican megadonor Larry Ellison is preparing to spend millions of dollars backing Sen. Tim Scott’s run for president.

    The plans have been in motion since the 2022 midterms, when Ellison donated $30 million to a pro-Scott super PAC, Opportunity Matters Fund, according to people familiar with the Oracle executive chairman’s plans. ……
    ………
    A Republican strategist and fundraiser close to Ellison told CNBC that the businessman’s donations to the super PAC this time are likely to at least double what he gave in 2022.

    The super PAC during the midterms backed Scott and spent millions more for other Republicans running for Senate seats, including just under $2 million for failed Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker, according to the nonpartisan OpenSecrets. The Opportunity Matters Fund PAC has been rebranded for Scott’s White House run with a new name: Trust In The Mission PAC, or TIM PAC.
    ………
    Another veteran Republican fundraiser told CNBC that Ellison is already planning to donate up to $10 million to the TIM PAC in the early going of Scott’s run. Ellison has signaled to allies that he could give at least between $20 million and $30 million more this cycle, this person said.
    ………
    The Republican strategist close to Ellison also noted that Tesla CEO and Twitter owner Elon Musk could follow his friend and supporter Ellison in backing the South Carolina senator.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  216. Wall Street Journal editorial:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-the-14th-amendment-really-says-debt-ceiling-biden-shut-down-default-constitution-78b24824

    nd President Biden is again threatening to invoke the Constitution’s 14th Amendment to pay interest on America’s debt without Congress raising the debt ceiling. The truth is that the Treasury has more than ample revenue coming in each month to avoid defaulting on the debt, and Mr. Biden doesn’t need to distort the meaning of the 14th Amendment to do it….

    He’s confusing the public, [and much of the news media- SF] and he may be confused himself, about what the 14th Amendment really says and how it affects the debt ceiling. Section 4 of the Amendment says that the “validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law . . . shall not be questioned.”

    This means the Treasury cannot repudiate debt held by the public as issued in Treasury bonds and notes. In practical terms this means Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen must prioritize debt repayment once statutory federal outlays exceed federal revenue. In other words, she and Mr. Biden can’t willfully default even for a time without violating the 14th Amendment.

    I’m not sure about that. You can default on debt but still owe.

    As David Rivkin and Lee Casey have written on these pages, the Supreme Court held in Perry v. U.S. (1935) that the 14th Amendment covers all sovereign federal debt. Congress decided during the Great Depression to begin paying federal bonds in currency, including those that promised payment in gold. Bondholders sued to receive payment in currency equal to the gold value of the notes, and the Justices agreed, saying that Congress had violated the 14th Amendment’s Public Debt Clause.

    This is a case where the 14th amendment came up.

    What the 14th Amendment doesn’t allow is the claim by many progressives that the President can issue new debt without the consent of Congress. Merely because Congress has approved new spending doesn’t mean the President can issue new debt on his own authority to finance it. He can’t issue new debt on his own to finance Medicare, for example.

    As Article I of the Constitution makes clear, that power belongs to Congress. Nor can the President issue new spending or forgive federal loans without Congress’s statutory approval. That’s what the challenge at the Supreme Court to Mr. Biden’s unilateral forgiveness of federal student loans is all about.

    ***
    All of which means that the melodrama over U.S. default is overwrought. That’s because even if federal spending begins to exceed federal tax revenue sometime in June, as Secretary Yellen says it will, Treasury can prioritize paying interest on Treasury bonds or retiring debt principal when it comes due.

    Treasury has more than enough cash to do this. Federal tax receipts in March were $313 billion and interest payments were $67 billion, according to Treasury’s monthly report on revenue and outlays. In April receipts were $639 billion and interest was $62 billion. It would be the height of fiscal irresponsibility if Treasury failed to use that cash to meet U.S. contractual debt obligations. Mr. Biden and Ms. Yellen would also be violating the law.

    It’s true that prioritizing debt repayment could mean closing down parts of the U.S. government for a time, or delaying payments under federal programs. But there have been partial government shutdowns during previous budget disputes between Congress and the President, and the world hasn’t ended.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  217. Treasury maintains that the software has no way to prioritize certain payments over others. If that’s true, what are they supposed to do?

    This is a lie. During government shutdowns they had priorities. Social Security checks went out. Government paychecks did not.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  218. Trump Civil Litigation Watch II:

    ………..
    Ms. Carroll’s filing Monday in Manhattan federal court seeks to intensify the financial pain for Mr. Trump. The jury in her civil case found him liable on May 9 for sexual abuse and defamation. It ordered him to pay Ms. Carroll, a former advice columnist and fixture in Manhattan’s media circles, $2 million for the sexual abuse and $3 million for the defamation.

    Monday’s filing came in a separate defamation lawsuit that Ms. Carroll had filed in 2019 against Mr. Trump, 76, which is before the same judge who presided in the civil trial but had been sidetracked by appeals. The older case stemmed from comments Mr. Trump made that year, shortly after she said that he had raped her in a Manhattan department store dressing room in the mid-1990s. That lawsuit is still pending.
    ……….
    The court filing on Monday argues Mr. Trump’s defamatory statements following the verdict “show the depth of his malice toward Carroll, since it is hard to imagine defamatory conduct that could possibly be more motivated by hatred, ill will or spite.”

    “This conduct supports a very substantial punitive damages award in Carroll’s favor both to punish Trump, to deter him from engaging in further defamation, and to deter others from doing the same,” the filing says.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  219. If that’s true, what are they supposed to do?

    The “tied to the railroad tracks” defense. Me, I’d look at it as a Trolley Problem.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  220. The Republican strategist close to Ellison also noted that Tesla CEO and Twitter owner Elon Musk could follow his friend and supporter Ellison in backing the South Carolina senator.

    So, tell me again about how Senator Scott is non-viable.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  221. This is a lie. During government shutdowns they had priorities. Social Security checks went out. Government paychecks did not.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 2:39 pm

    Obviously a government shutdown because a budget wasn’t passed is different than a failure to increase the debt ceiling. SS payments are made by direct deposit, not requiring government employees to process. But a debt default is different, there is then no authority to incur debt to cover on-going expenses.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  222. So, tell me again about how Senator Scott is non-viable.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 2:45 pm

    His politics.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  223. His politics.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/22/2023 @ 2:48 pm

    Of course he only declared today, but there is nothing in his Senate record that shows any leadership on issues.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  224. Having a billionaire sugar daddy back you for president is no guarantee for winning. Just ask Newt Gingrich and his sugar daddy (Sheldon Adelson).

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  225. Sammy, the “public debt” is not the same thing as “all obligations.” That would be like equating your mortgage payments with the balance due on your Mobil card.

    Th 14th Amendment was aimed at the sovereign debt of the United States, which after the Civil War was in some dispute. The former Confederate states were disinclined to consider Lincoln’s borrowing as legitimate, for several not entirely bogus reasons. The Amendment settled the argument.

    Public Debt refers to debt instruments backed by the full faith and credit of the United States (and authorized by law), not the appropriation for the Rural Electrification Administration.

    Why is this so hard to understand? Answer: some don’t want to understand and would prefer to pretend there is some other meaning.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  226. Having a billionaire sugar daddy back you for president is no guarantee for winning. Just ask Newt Gingrich and his sugar daddy (Sheldon Adelson).

    I would rather they had backers instead of buying htemselves the office. It suggests that others think the candidate is a good choice.

    BTW “sugar daddy” is pejorative, if not sexist or racist.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  227. Of course he only declared today, but there is nothing in his Senate record that shows any leadership on issues.

    He was one of 4 Senators who wrote the “Trump” tax reform. But really, if that’s your standard I guess you favor Cruz and Hawley.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  228. 223, 224: Both his own straight man and comic, Rip is.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  229. 222, see the last sentence in 226

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  230. His politics.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/22/2023 @ 2:48 pm

    How is that? Don’t be shy.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  231. He was one of 4 Senators who wrote the “Trump” tax reform. But really, if that’s your standard I guess you favor Cruz and Hawley.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 2:58 pm

    Big whoop.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  232. BTW “sugar daddy” is pejorative, if not sexist or racist.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 2:56 pm

    How about puppet master?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  233. Merely racist.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  234. Or power behind the throne?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  235. Rip, it’s just that you are so negative about anyone who is not DeSantis, and you are lukewarm about DeSantis. It’s hard to take you seriously as someone who wants the GOP to have someone besides Trump. Then again you don’t vote, so I’m at a loss to know why you even have an opinion.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  236. AllahNick just posted a column on Scott. A piece of it:

    Tim Scott, a dogmatic small-government Republican with charm to burn, is the obvious landing spot. As a devout and outspoken Christian, he’s also well-suited culturally to Iowa. If Republican support there begins shifting from DeSantis toward Scott after the debate, the governor might never recover.

    Scott even has an electability pitch, hypothetically, that DeSantis can’t match. The governor won 13 percent of the black vote in Florida in November, in line with the 12 percent Trump received nationally in 2020. Those numbers are an improvement over the Obama era, with black men (especially younger black men) showing growing interest in the GOP lately, but there’s lots of room to expand. If nominating an African American meant even just a few extra percentage points of the black vote for Republicans, Joe Biden would have a daunting math problem in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia.

    https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/boilingfrogs/how-tim-scott-wins/

    norcal (15fce4)

  237. Rip, it’s just that you are so negative about anyone who is not DeSantis……..

    I’m plenty negative about someone who is polling at RFK Jr.’s level. I find it hard to vote while holding my nose at the same time.

    I look forward to Tim Scott or Darling Nikki surging to 5%.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  238. Good interview with Tim Scott. He vows never to try to overturn an election result.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  239. Of course he only declared today, but there is nothing in his Senate record that shows any leadership on issues.

    He was one of 4 Senators who wrote the “Trump” tax reform. But really, if that’s your standard I guess you favor Cruz and Hawley.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 2:58 pm

    I misspoke when I said Scott showed no leadership on issues. Scott co-sponsored S. 61 in the 117th Congress, Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, which established a new criminal offense subjecting doctors with fines and/or prison for up to five years for performing or attempting to perform an abortion if the probable post-fertilization age of the fetus is 20 weeks or more.

    But since then he has really mishandled abortion-related issues, finally surrendering by saying

    “If I were president of the United States, I would literally sign the most conservative pro-life legislation that they can get through Congress,” Scott added, regarding a federal ban.

    “Even if that was six weeks?” the reporter clarified.

    “I’m not going to talk about six or five or seven or ten,” Scott replied.
    ………
    Scott has repeatedly co-sponsored legislation in Congress to ban abortions after 20 weeks, and has also supported bills that would deem life begins at conception, using the Constitution’s 14th Amendment right to life to effectively outlaw all abortions.

    But he has not signed on to a 15-week national ban proposed by his South Carolina colleague, Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R). He was asked by a CBS News reporter while campaigning in Iowa on Wednesday if he would back Graham’s proposal. He responded that he was “100 percent pro-life.” When pressed on whether that was a yes, he said, “That’s not what I said.”

    Outside of the abortion issue his legislative accomplishments are slim.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  240. I’m plenty negative about someone who is polling at RFK Jr.’s level.

    “Never tell me the odds”
    –Han Solo

    “Those odds sound terrible. We need new odds.”
    –Drax

    “Odds are for dice. People make their own odds”
    –Kevin M

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  241. “I’m not going to talk about six or five or seven or ten,” Scott replied.

    Because there is no profit to a politician in arguing maybes.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  242. California Wins Another Food Fight:

    The Supreme Court said Monday it won’t get involved in a dispute over a California animal cruelty law that bars foie gras from being sold in the state, leaving in place a lower court ruling dismissing the case.
    ……..
    The foie gras case had been on hold at the high court while the justices considered a different case involving another California animal cruelty law, that one governing the sale of pork in the state. In that case, the justices earlier this month backed that law, which requires more space for breeding pigs. The pork industry has said the ruling will lead to higher costs nationwide for pork chops and bacon.
    ……..
    Farmers and producers of poultry products in Canada sued over the law along with New York-based Hudson Valley Foie Gras. The case has been going on since 2012. Most recently, a trial court dismissed the case and a federal appeals court agreed with that outcome. The Supreme Court’s decision not to step in leaves that decision in place.

    In a statement released through their attorney, Michael Tenenbaum, the groups that brought the case said they were disappointed both with the way the high court resolved the California pork law case earlier in the month and with the high court’s decision not to step in to their case.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  243. Because there is no profit to a politician in arguing maybes.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 4:56 pm

    Because there is no profit to a politician in arguing maybes taking a stand.

    FIFY.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  244. Outside of the abortion issue his legislative accomplishments are slim.

    Outside of major issues he’s addressed, that is. Abortion is a wedge issue and a distraction. It’s part of the Democrat press’s “Let’s you two Republicans fight!”

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  245. Abortion is a wedge issue and a distraction.

    It was a major accomplishment of the last Republican administration, yet Republicans refuse to embrace it.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  246. Because there is no profit to a politician in taking a stand.

    There no “stand” in which week. There is only putting your feet in concrete, stupidly. He is for serious limitation, but a President doesn’t not have a single vote in Congress. He’s said that if they pass a bill, he will sign it. That’s a stand, even if it recognizes he’s not a dictator.

    Trump has no problem taking stands. It might not be the same stand he took last week, or will take next week, and he’ll deny he ever said otherwise.

    DeSantis signed a bill in Florida, but now wants to pretend someone else did it. This is a stand?

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  247. It was a major accomplishment of the last Republican administration, yet Republicans refuse to embrace it.

    All the Court did was remove a judicial usurpation. They did not say “Abortion bad.” Many Republicans (correctly) objected to ROE without objecting to abortion. They already won and intend to go no further.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  248. He is for serious limitation…..

    20 weeks is not a serious limitation. Most abortions occur long before that.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  249. They already won and intend to go no further.

    Republican states beg to differ.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  250. 20 weeks is not a serious limitation. Most abortions occur long before that.

    Six weeks is an abomination, making elective abortions nearly impossible. Many women don’t realize they are pregnant until they’ve missed a second period (not everyone is totally regular) and most clinics won’t go anywhere near 6 weeks if a mistake is treated as a criminal act.

    Only men would think it’s reasonable and half the voters are women. This is a suicide pact for Republicans.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  251. Again, civilized places that have debated this for 40 years longer than we have have come to legislative conclusions at 12-15 weeks. They are not all crazy and America should, for one, stop being so effing arrogant about it.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  252. *for once

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  253. Any abortion restriction below 12 weeks, and maybe even 15, is a loser politically.

    norcal (15fce4)

  254. I didn’t see your 252 before posting my 254, Kevin.

    We are in agreement nonetheless.

    norcal (15fce4)

  255. Anyone who thought that states (especially those with pre-Roe bans) wouldn’t take advantage of their new found freedom to legislate abortion restrictions after Roe is incredibly naïve. From their perspective that was the point of overturning Roe.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  256. I would rather they had backers instead of buying htemselves the office. It suggests that others think the candidate is a good choice.
    …….

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 2:56 pm

    Larry Ellison isn’t giving Tim Scott $20M+ for altruistic reasons. He will want return on his investment.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  257. Larry Ellison isn’t giving Tim Scott $20M+ for altruistic reasons. He will want return on his investment.

    What, besides naive cynicism, do you base that on?

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  258. From their perspective that was the point of overturning Roe.

    Many of them will have a new perspective shortly: being out of office. This is a direct attack on young single women and politicians who rely on margins of less than, oh, 15% will be sorry. Very sorry indeed.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  259. Larry Ellison isn’t giving Tim Scott $20M+ for altruistic reasons. He will want return on his investment.

    What, besides naive cynicism, do you base that on?

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 5:49 pm

    Just that nobody gives multi-millions to someone and not expect anything in return. Unlike Warren Buffet or Bill Gates, Ellison is not known for his altruism. It will be interesting to hear Scott’s position on banning Tik Tok in the US, given the fact TT uses Oracle’s servers.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  260. From their perspective that was the point of overturning Roe.

    Many of them will have a new perspective shortly: being out of office. This is a direct attack on young single women and politicians who rely on margins of less than, oh, 15% will be sorry. Very sorry indeed.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 5:52 pm

    That’s the way the system should work.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  261. Just that nobody gives multi-millions to someone and not expect anything in return.

    Perhaps that something is “an America that favors hard work and self-reliance.” Larry Ellison does not need more money. And if you think the guy who sunk tens of billion$ into Twitter did it for financial gain then at least one of you two is really stupid.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  262. That’s the way the system should work.

    Old British Leyland commercial, showing a sports car and crash-test dummy swerving before hitting the crash-test wall:

    “In England, we strive to avoid the wall.”

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  263. Larry Ellison does not need more money.

    I am sure there will be government actions that impinge on his businesses that require a friendly ear to listen.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  264. Larry Ellison does not need more money.

    He wants to influence governmental decisions, which is more valuable than money. Ask Jeff Bezos.

    Rip Murdock (6098c9)

  265. AllahNick seems to see what I see:

    https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/boilingfrogs/how-tim-scott-wins/

    Only three Republicans are capable of mounting consequential presidential candidacies, I think. One has been in the race since November, another will announce later this week.

    The third is Tim Scott, who launched his campaign today.

    Everyone else, from Mike Pence on down, is a prisoner of events. Unless lightning strikes Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, none has any hope of becoming the nominee.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  266. 264, 265: This is classic naive cynicism, the supposition that the powers that be are in cahoots and that everything is bent. It’s how Trump supporters think.

    Naïve cynicism (Wikipedia)

    Naïve cynicism is a philosophy of mind, cognitive bias and form of psychological egoism that occurs when people naïvely expect more egocentric bias in others than actually is the case.

    A related example:

    Naïve cynicism has been exemplified in the context of altruism. Explanations of selfless human behavior have been described in terms of individuals seeking personal advantage as opposed to absolute altruism.

    For example, naïve cynicism would explain the act of an individual donating money or items to charity as a way of self-enhancement rather than for altruistic purposes.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  267. What is it when you look for a politician to be your knight in shining armor and ride to your rescue?

    nk (e7f88f)

  268. Having worked with Congressional committees, I know whereof I speak.

    Rip Murdock (28faa6)

  269. What is it when you look for a politician to be your knight in shining armor and ride to your rescue?

    Answer

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  270. Rip, it’s just that you are so negative about anyone who is not DeSantis……..

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 3:53 pm

    Apparently you missed this post.

    Rip Murdock (f970de)

  271. lurker (cd7cd4) — 5/22/2023 @ 7:43 pm

    Touché.

    Rip Murdock (f970de)

  272. Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/22/2023 @ 6:49 pm

    I see DC whatever is back.

    Rip Murdock (f970de)

  273. What is it when you look for a politician to be your knight in shining armor and ride to your rescue?

    Desperation? I don’t much care about shining armor so much as it isn’t Trump or Biden. However, someone of character would be a definite plus.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  274. Major accomplishment? Thats like saying the german 6th army reaching the volga river at stalingrad was a major accomplishment. They (anti-abortionists) already have won is like saying when the jap carrier force at midway shot down the last bomber of torpedo eight they had won. Don’t look up at those dive bombers entering their dives! I like the analogy in the movie hondo when paul newman says to richard boone. “Hey I got a question. How are you going to get back down the hill?”

    asset (f6a243)

  275. Interesting passage from the Scott interview Rip referenced above:

    TOM LLAMAS: What do you– what do you think about President Trump’s behavior after the 2020 election and to– into January 6th?

    SENATOR TIM SCOTT: We can do two things here, we can have a conversation about President Trump or we can have a conversation about my vision for the future. I’m gonna stay on my future, my– my vision for the future for a couple reasons.

    TOM LLAMAS: But it was a historical moment. I think voters deserve to know–

    SENATOR TIM SCOTT: I– I– actually– I was actually in there, so I know exactly how historic it was. But what I will say is simply this, that the future that America is focusing on is what I’m gonna provide. I’m gonna continue to talk about those conservative principles that move this country forward with the best path for all of us.

    I don’t think a GOP candidate has a prayer if he does not dodge the question asked here. If we want an alternative who is not Mr. I Am Your Retribution, we had better get used to dealing wth it.

    Appalled (d12978)

  276. “we had better get used to dealing with it.”

    I tend to agree. It’s clear that all of the political consultants and pollsters are providing the same guidance. The goal is NOT to appease the 10% of NeverTrump that want the fully Cheney. It’s about persuading the 70% that are at least willing to put their pants back on that it is time to try a new direction.

    Someone desperate enough might Kamikaze against Trump, but the fear is that most Republicans will view this as succumbing to the MSNBC-liberal spin. Trump Derangement! So the best we will get is allusions to victimhood and grievance and a different vision. Again to me, this is woefully understated, but this is a baby-steps process. NeverTrump will not be picking the nominee. The best we can hope for is a bit more edge as Trump’s legal problems mount.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  277. I would hope that Trump’s actions are discussed at length in some DC federal court, and soon. Trump’s plan is to delay things until after he’s re-elected at which point “courts” will cease to be a problem. I would rather they didn’t let him.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  278. The goal is NOT to appease the 10% of NeverTrump that want the fully Cheney

    For the press, it’s to drag the GOP through [Trump’s] crap some more while encouraging him to run.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  279. Note that Tim Scott would be the FIRST! President (or Vice-President) descended from enslaved American ancestors.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  280. Trump is no longer an unknown who is considered easy to beat. Are we to believe that Biden’s narrow 2020 win over Trump gives liberal media confidence? They want to paint any Republican as extreme so their preferred candidate wins. Conservative media does the same thing. I can’t believe that 53% of Republicans are being swayed by CNN or MSNBC to go with Trump. The problem is with that 53%. They have some options. They’re just choosing not to exercise those options at this early stage. Conservative media is not especially helpful at this point either. There’s no great tidal wave of “let’s move on” coming from National Review, Fox News, or the Daily Wire.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  281. I don’t think a GOP candidate has a prayer if he does not dodge the question asked here….

    So much for the non-Trump candidates taking on Trump all at once. As I have said previously, DeSantis, Vivek, Darling Nikki, or Scott won’t attack Trump, they don’t want to turn off his voters (or want a role in his Administration).

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  282. For the press, it’s to drag the GOP through [Trump’s] crap some more while encouraging him to run.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/23/2023 @ 8:10 am

    I don’t think the press needed to encourage Trump to run. It was inevitable since January 6, 2021.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  283. Apparently it will be Scott’s election strategy not to be pinned down on any single issue but offer platitudes and “the vision thing.”

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  284. Driver Charged After Truck Rams White House Barriers

    A Missouri teenager who rammed a U-Haul truck into White House security barriers was arrested Monday night, authorities said.

    Sai Varshith Kandula, 19 years old, intentionally crashed into bollards outside Lafayette Park, just outside the White House, the U.S. Park Police said.

    The teenager faces charges including threatening to kill, kidnap or inflict harm on a president, vice president or family member, the Park Police said. It couldn’t be determined if President Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris were in the White House at the time of the crash.
    ………
    Images published by Reuters appeared to show a Nazi flag featuring the swastika on the ground near the truck.

    The teenager, from Chesterfield, Mo., was also charged with assault with a dangerous weapon, reckless operation of a motor vehicle, destruction of federal property and trespassing.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  285. > Do it manually.

    How many people do you think it takes to manually process the US government’s payments? How many people do you think have the training necessary to know how to do it?

    This does not strike me as a serious suggestion. Yes, we had a manual system *once*, but that hasn’t been true for decades, and the staff to do it simply don’t exist any more.

    aphrael (3dc074)

  286. Note that Tim Scott would be the FIRST! President (or Vice-President) descended from enslaved American ancestors.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/23/2023 @ 8:43 am

    I’m sure we will be hearing that over and over for the next several months from the Scott campaign.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  287. I’m sure we will be hearing that over and over for the next several months from the Scott campaign.

    If he was a Democrat, it would be a chyron on CNN.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  288. Apparently it will be Scott’s election strategy not to be pinned down on any single issue but offer platitudes and “the vision thing.”

    Trump is basing his campaign on “the anger thing.” DeSantis is basing his on Trump-lite (i.e. less anger).

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  289. DeSantis May Have Missed His Chance To Make The GOP Primary About Him And Trump
    ………
    The political reality of May 2023 has DeSantis preparing to enter a primary field that is expanding rather than contracting, with Trump back on top in polling and candidates as eager to poach DeSantis’ conservative media hype and big money donors as they are to steal Trump’s grassroots support.
    ………
    ………Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) could all also launch bids soon.

    And potential new candidates are crawling out of the GOP’s political woodwork: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a wealthy former Microsoft executive, has hired political consultants. Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, whose previous presidential endeavors are best summed up by the word “oops,” is also considering a bid.
    ………
    Those candidates either want to block Trump, or are auditioning for a spot on his ticket or in his cabinet, (John Feehery, a Republican lobbyist and former Capitol Hill aide, who is unaligned in the primary) said.
    ………
    Many of the other contenders seem as or more eager to attack DeSantis than to do battle with Trump. Haley trolled DeSantis over his clashes with Disney earlier this month. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, yet another potential candidate, has both criticized DeSantis’ culture war tactics and insisted he is more fiscally conservative than the Floridian. Christie has said DeSantis’ war with Disney shows the latter man is “not a conservative”.
    ………
    The attacks on DeSantis have taken a toll on his support among Republican primary voters. He has the backing of about 21% of those voters, down from about 30% in March, according to FiveThirtyEight’s latest public polling average.
    ………
    “Donald Trump is like Philip Morris cigarettes in the 1960s and 70s,” said (Ryan Girdusky, a conservative consultant associated with the more nationalist wing of the Republican Party), who founded The 1776 Project, a right-wing super PAC active in local school board elections. “It’s a great brand that will give you cancer, but people still like the brand. So you need to destroy the brand.”
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  290. Trump is basing his campaign on “the anger thing.”

    Trump has also released a number of policy-oriented videos, far more than he has done in the past as well as the other candidates.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  291. #282

    So much for the non-Trump candidates taking on Trump all at once. As I have said previously, DeSantis, Vivek, Darling Nikki, or Scott won’t attack Trump, they don’t want to turn off his voters

    Politics, as they say, is the art of the possible. You aren’t going to get elected telling your voter pool that the other guy is the embodiment of all your worst instincts. The best you will get from those voters is that Trump loses because he scares people away,

    That said, any GOP candidate is a prisoner of the events that will affect Trump over the next few months. Look for another spike in Trump’s polling in August, when my fair city will become the focal point of the first serious indictment of the Donald.

    Appalled (d12978)

  292. RIP C. Boyden Gray (80), who served as White House Counsel to President George H.W. Bush.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  293. Special Counsel Is Wrapping Up Trump Mar-a-Lago Probe
    ………..
    In recent weeks prosecutors working for Smith have completed interviews with nearly every employee at Trump’s Florida home, from top political aides to maids and maintenance staff, the people said. Prosecutors have pressed witnesses—some in multiple rounds of testimony—on questions that appeared to home in on specific elements Smith’s team would need to show to prove a crime, including those that speak to Trump’s intentions, and questions aimed at undermining potential defenses Trump could raise, they said.
    ……….
    Smith’s team, which has been examining whether anyone tried to obstruct the criminal inquiry, has obtained evidence that appears to show Trump held on to sensitive documents after being asked to relinquish them, the people said. Last week the National Archives turned over to Smith’s team records of communications between then-President Trump and some of his advisers about how he could declassify documents, some of the people said, material that could help prosecutors overcome the defense that Trump believed he could do so verbally. CNN first reported the National Archives transfer.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  294. #293 — So you makin’ me out to be a liar, Rip? 😉

    Appalled (d12978)

  295. Trump has also released a number of policy-oriented videos,

    And next week he’ll release some different ones. Believe him at your peril.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  296. We’ll see if some of the candidates aren’t just there to trash Donald Trump. It’s a noble calling. I just cannot believe that there is such a clamor to be part of his Cabinet. How would you lie about it later?

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  297. Look for another spike in Trump’s polling in August, when my fair city will become the focal point of the first serious indictment of the Donald.

    His base will just look at it as Trump trying to get the RINO governor to stop helping The Steal™.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  298. The attacks on DeSantis have taken a toll on his support among Republican primary voters.

    No, it’s DeSantis’ incompetent actions wrt Disney that have take a toll. DeSantis’s claim is “I can deliver what Trump can’t.” The Disney thing makes that claim hollow.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  299. #293 — So you makin’ me out to be a liar, Rip? 😉

    Appalled (d12978) — 5/23/2023 @ 11:10 am

    Not sure what your comment to a post about C. Boyden Gray has anything to do about making you liar.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  300. Trump has also released a number of policy-oriented videos,

    And next week he’ll release some different ones. Believe him at your peril.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/23/2023 @ 12:15 pm

    The point is that Trump is outlining his positions on issues (along with everything else) while the other candidates are not defining what they believe beyond platitudes.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  301. Court sets legal showdown on debt limit 14th Amendment argument
    ………
    U.S. District Court Judge Richard Stearns set a May 31 hearing on a lawsuit filed by a federal workers union contending that the 14th Amendment empowers Biden and other officials to sidestep the standoff with Congress that has threatened a potential default.
    ………
    “If the emergency is as dire as you think it is, I would think that it’s within the power of the president to address it using executive branch authority,” said Stearns, an appointee of former President Bill Clinton.
    ………
    Stearns did not get a direct answer when he asked Justice Department lawyer Alexander Ely whether the department disagrees with the central argument in the suit: that the 14th Amendment’s assurance that U.S. debt shall not be questioned means the president can ignore a statute capping the national debt.

    Ely said he was not authorized to stake out a position on that question and he suggested that the department would argue that the union’s suit is not a proper vehicle to force DOJ to come to a legal conclusion.
    ………
    Stearns gave the Justice Department a deadline of May 30 to file a written response that could clarify the government’s view on the outer bounds of Biden’s authority regarding the public debt.
    ##########

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  302. Tim Scott’s Uphill Battle To Win The Republican Nomination
    ……….
    (Tim Scott’s) got a lot going for him, at least on paper: He’s an unapologetic and unceasingly affable conservative whose Christian faith has informed his politics and personal journey. His vision is relentlessly optimistic, an implicit rebuke of the grievance politics that have taken over the Republican Party — though it’s unclear if the party wants to pivot in his direction. And, unlike DeSantis, Scott has managed the impressive feat of staying on the good side of both the Trumpist and non-Trumpist wings of the party. Scott’s advisers argue that his middle-of-the road disposition makes him more electable — specifically in a general election.

    So why isn’t Scott entering the race with the same stature as DeSantis despite his conservative record and political resume? One reason for this dynamic could be because DeSantis has had a chance to pursue an “anti-woke” agenda as Florida’s governor with actual outcomes, whereas it’s harder to make the same kind of name for yourself in the Senate minority. Republican voters might also just want a Trumpian-type candidate that’s not Trump himself, or may rebuke the possibility of a Black party leader.

    These factors could help explain why Scott is just barely on the map as a presidential candidate while DeSantis is largely viewed as Trump’s top opponent. Indeed, not all polls ask about Scott, and when he is discussed, particularly in regards to 2024, Republican voters usually rank him far behind Trump and DeSantis — among a handful of others. In fact, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis of multi-candidate ballot tests that include Trump, Scott has never netted more than 4 percent of the vote share. In multicandidate ballot tests not including Trump, Scott has never received more than 7 percent of the vote share. And in the past month, he’s been overtaken in polls by Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur with no prior political experience.
    ………
    Even though it’s still early in the presidential nominating cycle, a lack of notoriety among GOP voters isn’t the only hurdle Scott will need to overcome. …..
    ……..
    It’s also not clear whether voters will buy Scott’s message of unity and forgiveness at a time of hyper-political polarization. Indeed, his message of optimism could prove to be an impediment in today’s Republican primary environment, where voters have denounced what they view as unjust favoritism toward people of color and seem more interested in being angry. ………
    ………
    But what would it take for him to reach the same level of popularity and fame as his biggest opponents (or soon-to-be opponents)?

    Arguably the best way for Scott to make a name for himself is to simply get in front of GOP audiences in the same way DeSantis has. ……
    ………
    Scott will also be able to differentiate himself from the rest of the field by continuing the GOP’s crusade against advancing issues of racial justice. During his response to President Biden’s 2021 State of the Union, Scott made waves by boldly declaring that “America is not a racist country.” That’s a message that’ll likely resonate with Republican voters. …….
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  303. Judge sets 2024 date for Trump’s criminal trial in Stormy Daniels case

    A New York City judge has set a trial date of March 25, 2024, for former President Donald Trump’s criminal trial on charges of falsifying business records.

    The former president appeared, virtually, in a Manhattan court Tuesday before the judge presiding over his criminal case.

    Trump, sitting side-by-side with his attorney Todd Blanche, his hands folded on the table, scowled into the camera when Judge Juan Merchan announced the trial date, possibly because the date conflicts with the GOP primary calendar as Trump seeks to reclaim the presidency.

    Merchan has previously indicated that no one associated with the case is allowed to schedule anything that would conflict with the trial, which would seemingly including any campaign appearances that would keep Trump from appearing in court.
    ………..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  304. Yesterday in the radio Jesse Kelly did not like Tim Scott. He made some kind of awkward comparison to the Molotov Ribbentrop pact of August, 1939 (!??) with Republican primary voters in the role of Stalin.

    It doesn’t make too much sense, except that he’s trying to argue that Scott, although a nice person, is going to fool the MAGA people..

    But his objection is that Senator Tim Scott would not agree that the FBI was working against Trump in the obstruction of subpoenaed documents case. Scott wanted to wait and see what happened.

    Meanwhile, Scott announced.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/22/us/politics/tim-scott-2024-campaign-trump.html

    The NYT reports that he actually has the most money in his campaign account (DeSantis has more if you include affiliated SuperPacs) and he has the endorsement of Senator Thune who wants Republicans to rally behind him. He is probably the choice of Mitch McConnell. And the other anti-Trump Republicans.

    With Mr. Trump’s most ardent followers unwilling to abandon their standard-bearer, the former president’s critics worry that more opponents will only split the anti-Trump vote and ensure his victory. Mr. Thune’s presence onstage Monday was an acknowledgment of that concern and a call to other elected Republicans to get on board with Mr. Scott.

    “Tim Scott is the real deal,” Mr. Thune proclaimed.

    Aides to the Scott campaign said his $22 million war chest was more than any presidential candidate in history. (When Mr. DeSantis announces his bid as expected, he will have more money in allied groups, but that kind of political cash does not go as far under campaign finance rules.)

    DeSantis has the endorsement of Elon Musk.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  305. Scott spoke about how the (economic) ladder he used is being pulled up by the progressives (He used a different word)

    This would usually refer to the minimum wage but it probably includes other things.

    This sounds like his focus is on domestic issues.

    Tim Scott was originally appointed to the Senate at the end of 2012 by South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (when Jim DeMint resigned in the middle of a term to take a position as head of the Heritage Foundation). He had been first elected to Congress in 2010.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  306. Trump wants Scott to run (probably because it divides the vote in his thinking)

    Sammy Finkelman (d007a3)

  307. Another possible candidate for president not mentioned here yet:

    Miami Mayor Francis Suarez

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/face-the-nation-full-transcript-05-21-2023

    MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to FACE THE NATION. We continue our conversation now with Miami’s mayor, Francis Suarez.

    So, sir, when will you announce you’re running for president?

    FRANCIS SUAREZ (R-Miami Mayor): Well, it — it’s got to be soon because the first debate is August 20th. I’m someone who needs to be better known by this country. And so I think the Republican Party has said there’s going to be a debate a month from August all the way through January 8th, which is the Iowa caucus. So you have to take every opportunity to share your story, to share your vision and to try to inspire the American people to choose what you’re trying to – to offer them.

    So, I think it would have to be soon in order to make the debate stage. There’s a couple of criteria that you have to follow. One of them is – is you have to be at least 1 percent in the polls, which I think shouldn’t be a problem. And, secondly, you have to have 40,000 unique individual contributions, and that takes a little bit of time. So, the – the clock is ticking. It’s a soul-searching process with my family. And every single day we talk about it, my wife and I, and we’re getting much, much closer to making a final decision.

    MARGARET BRENNAN: That sounds like the only word you’re not saying is yes, but you’re leaning in pretty heavily there.

    Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway was – was quoted as saying you’d be among the best possible draft picks as a running mate for President Trump. Would you join a ticket with him?

    FRANCIS SUAREZ: Look, it’s flattering to be in any discussion for the vice presidency or the presidency. You know, I was — my parents came to this country at 12 and seven from Cuba, exiled from their country of birth. I never thought in a million years that I would ever be on FACE THE NATION with you talking about the possibility for running for president. I think that demonstrates the greatness of this country, that this country provides opportunities to everyone who cares about the American dream. That’s how I’ve grown up. I, you know, I’ve grown up as a – as a citizen of this country….

    He can’t bne a running mate for Trump because they can’t both get Florida’s electoral votes. he’s have to resign as mayor and move out of state or Trump would have to move his residence out of state, probably to New Jersey.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  308. NYT Op-ed piece that argues that doctors aren’t being misled about anti abortion laws and the proof is that pro-life groups, although they dispute the interpretations of what to in cases of non-viable fetuses including cases where a twin can be saved by killing the presumed doomed twin being offered, aren’t suing.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/22/opinion/abortion-law-texas-lawsuit.html

    It’s increasingly clear that it’s not safe to be pregnant in states with total abortion bans. Since the end of Roe v. Wade, there has been a barrage of gutting stories about women in prohibition states denied care for miscarriages or forced to continue nonviable pregnancies. Though some in the anti-abortion movement publicly justify this sort of treatment, others have responded with a combination of denial, deflection and conspiracy theorizing.

    Some activists have blamed the pro-choice movement for spooking doctors into not intervening when pregnancies go horribly wrong. “Abortion advocates are spreading the dangerous lie that lifesaving care is not or may not be permitted in these states, leading to provider confusion and poor outcomes for women,” said a report by the anti-abortion Charlotte Lozier Institute.

    Others have suggested that doctors are deliberately refusing miscarriage treatment, apparently to make anti-abortion laws look bad. “What we’re seeing, I fear, is doctors with an agenda saying, ‘Well, I don’t know what to do’ when, in fact, they do,” the president of Ohio Right to Life said last year….

    ….Two of the women in the original suit, Lauren Miller and Ashley Brandt, had been pregnant with twins. Each discovered that one of her twins had severe abnormalities and wouldn’t survive. In both cases, only by aborting the doomed twin could they protect the life of the viable one, as well as their own health.

    Texas doctors can do little for women in this excruciating situation. Given a state law that lets people sue anyone who “aids or abets” an abortion, many are fearful even to counsel their patients about out-of-state options. “In every interaction with their medical team in Texas, Lauren M. and her husband felt confused and frustrated and could not get direct answers,” says the lawsuit. Both Miller and her doctors were afraid to even utter the word “abortion.”

    In the meantime Democrats are opposed to any legal restrictions on abortion whatsoever, arguing in effect that no line can be drawn that wouldn’t stop what you would not want to stop.
    ,

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  309. Biden refuses to do anything that could be attacked as welcoming illegal immigrants but at the same time he does not want to take new action against them, and so he’s releasing people from overcrowded detention centers without giving them work permits which he could do by giving them another status. And he’s certainly not going to send money to cities and states..

    I recall that Vietnamese refugees in 1975 and Cubans in 1980 and even some Afghans in 2021 (Before Biden cut off transportation) were accomodated temporarily on military bases.

    Republicans are mainly telling various kinds of lies and trying to “prove” that Democrats are secretly as hostile to migrants as they are.

    Eric Adams has been caught in a few misstatements of fact too. There were not 900 arriving in one day. Half the hotel rooms were not occupied by migrants. (it’s an argument for federal money)

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  310. Good interview with Tim Scott. He vows never to try to overturn an election result.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/22/2023 @ 4:10 pm

    Trumpworld not buying it

    ……..If he loses REGARDLESS OF FRAUD????? How stupid. …….He just removed all doubt the he’s a token stalking horse for the Uniparty. ……. he is just another empty suit deep stater who does not deserve conservative support. ……..and if the Dems flagrantly commit fraud to win, Tim Scott will stand by and do nothing??? ……..So Timmy would let ‘em cheat in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, etc. without lifting a single finger to challenge results. No thanks. With wusses like these, who needs enemies. ……..Finally, a Republican who will reach across the aisle and do what he’s told. …….Scott seems to be a ‘go along to get along’ guy, and WE need anything but another one of those. …….This is a wink and a nod to his Deep State masters that he fully acknowledges the idea of “Consent of the Governed” is a lie and that only the Deep State can select the POTUS. Of course he won’t question the election, because he knows US national elections are an illusion to fool the masses into thinking they actually have a say in who governs them. ……..The model RINO…..loser and proud of it! ……..I just hope he’s better than Alan Keyes. ……..The longest job he had before he ran for any office was as an insurance agent. …….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  311. I don’t see how a fight with Disney make someone not business friendly. Not Disney friendly, but there are thousands and thousands of businesses that don’t have the deal Disney does that are doing very well in Florida. Heck, Disney is doing well in Florida and wants to maintain its special status, DeSantis wants to trim that back now that Disney World has recovered its investment many times over, its a profitable well established business that got quite a few perks to move to Florida, build out a park, tax breaks and sweetheart deals to make sure Disneyworld had an environment for success. Disney isn’t going to move its park, they are just pitching a fit because if the FLA the taxpayer subsidy is running out, their earnings per share might miss analyst targets by a few pennies.

    steveg (dd2429)

  312. @302: More horse race news.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  313. @310: Trump’s suckers calling someone dumb. It would be funny if it wasn’t so tragic.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  314. “The point is that Trump is outlining his positions on issues (along with everything else) while the other candidates are not defining what they believe beyond platitudes.”

    I don’t know a lot of people who are deeply tracking the race yet. I’ve not seen much of what Trump is emphasizing but suspect it just more nationalist stuff. His comments that get the most play of late are his views about stars being allowed to assault women for a million years, the election still being stolen, and his perspectives on J6. Trump the policy wonk is generally underwhelming, like balancing the budget in 8yrs and giving us the greatest health care system ever.

    AJ_Liberty (082775)

  315. or Trump would have to move his residence out of state, probably to New Jersey.

    Isn’t it funny the way that Trump moved to a zero-income-tax state after killing the SALT deduction. Yet another reason to dislike him.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  316. @302: More horse race news.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/23/2023 @ 7:08 pm

    Your #302 appears to be different than mine. Mine is the post about the 14th Amendment challenge to the debt ceiling.

    Rip Murdock (f970de)

  317. Sen. rick scott of floriduh ramping up his re-election campaign says socialist democrats are unwelcome in floriduh and that republicans are openly hostile to them. Democrats should make him unwelcome and be openly hostile to him in DC. In lighter news corrupt texas ag ken paxton says republican house speaker should resign for being a drunk moral degenerate!

    asset (aba0db)

  318. More horse race news.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/23/2023 @ 7:08 pm

    Horse race or marathon, Tim Scott and the other Lilliputians are far behind.

    Rip Murdock (f970de)

  319. “The point is that Trump is outlining his positions on issues (along with everything else) while the other candidates are not defining what they believe beyond platitudes.”

    I don’t know a lot of people who are deeply tracking the race yet. I’ve not seen much of what Trump is emphasizing but suspect it just more nationalist stuff. ……….

    FWIW, here’s Trump’s “Agenda47.”

    Rip Murdock (19ebb8)

  320. “These are Trump’s principles..”

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  321. This election wii be decided by less then 100,000 voters in pa., mi., wi., az. and ga.
    AS IT WAS IN 2016 & 2020. In 2016 thanks to green party ( ) Wi. trump wins by 22,000 with green party siphoning off 38,000 votes from clinton. Mi. 10,000 (50,000) Pa. 43,000 (55,000) A total of 75,000 In 2020 Thanks to green party being kicked off ballot Biden wins Wi. 20,000 Az. 10,000 ga. 13.000 a total 44,000. Anything else you think means something is worthless babel. I keep pointing this out as you babel on! You have to reach a small number of voters in 5 states who will decide the presidency not the inteligencia.

    asset (eb80da)

  322. @298

    The attacks on DeSantis have taken a toll on his support among Republican primary voters.

    No, it’s DeSantis’ incompetent actions wrt Disney that have take a toll. DeSantis’s claim is “I can deliver what Trump can’t.” The Disney thing makes that claim hollow.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/23/2023 @ 12:23 pm

    This really doesn’t make any sense.

    You can have issues with the way this went down. Those are fair criticisms.

    But to say that he’s ‘incompetent’ and that this ordeal renders the argument “I can deliver what Trump can’t” hollow is really short-sighted.

    You cannot ignore what DeSantis has done in Florida in putting “wins on the board”, and that he’s insanely popular in Florida among GOPers and independents.

    His challenge, is to navigate nationally because Florida GOPs/Independents aren’t the same nationally.

    whembly (d116f3)

  323. @304

    Yesterday in the radio Jesse Kelly did not like Tim Scott. He made some kind of awkward comparison to the Molotov Ribbentrop pact of August, 1939 (!??) with Republican primary voters in the role of Stalin.

    It doesn’t make too much sense, except that he’s trying to argue that Scott, although a nice person, is going to fool the MAGA people..

    But his objection is that Senator Tim Scott would not agree that the FBI was working against Trump in the obstruction of subpoenaed documents case. Scott wanted to wait and see what happened.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 5/23/2023 @ 3:54 pm

    No Sammy. Jesse’s objection to Scott is that “he’s too nice” towards his opponent, not that he’s going to “fool MAGA”.

    His point on the Molotov Ribbentrop pact between Stalin and Hitler is spot on.

    Hitler NEVER hid the fact that he hated Communist Russia. He wanted Russia’s land and resources for the German people. He made public speeches and published books attesting to this.

    Hitler’s position vis-à-vis on Russia was well known.

    Yet, Stalin was willing to sit down with Hitler to agree to a pact to split eastern Europe. Which we know Hitler later eventually stabbed Stalin’s back and invaded Russia.

    The insane Democrat left is telling us all the things they’re wanting to do to this country.

    Jesse’s overall premise, is that Tim Scott is genuine a nice guy and could be that stable elder statements that many wants. But this country needs a fighter to counter the insane Democrat leftist that has infected DC.

    whembly (d116f3)

  324. @315

    or Trump would have to move his residence out of state, probably to New Jersey.

    Isn’t it funny the way that Trump moved to a zero-income-tax state after killing the SALT deduction. Yet another reason to dislike him.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/23/2023 @ 7:13 pm

    I think it rather highlights the problem with the SALT deductions.

    Very wealthy people can simply move to another state to mitigate tax rates.

    The answer to this issue, is for voters to vote in the kinds of people to reduce state taxes, so that you don’t hit the limits of the federal SALT deductions.

    whembly (d116f3)

  325. #298 —

    Please define how DeSantis has “lost” to Disney. Is it only a win when the antagonist lies down and gives up?

    De Santis picked a fight. Disney fought back. The outcome is not yet decided as far as I can tell. What I notice is that when Disney makes a move, DeSantis has a counter move. Neither is out of moves, yet.

    Appalled (9c97c5)

  326. Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 5/23/2023 @ 4:08 pm

    Unlikely.

    Developer paid Miami’s mayor $170K to push his project, company records state

    A developer quietly paid Miami Mayor Francis Suarez at least $170,000 over the past two years to help cut through red tape and secure critical permits for his stalled real estate project in Coconut Grove, according to internal corporate records exclusively obtained by the Miami Herald.

    Notes of company meetings held last summer and fall by the development firm Location Ventures indicate that CEO Rishi Kapoor was having difficulties getting plans approved for his URBIN Coconut Grove complex as he tried to assure jittery investors that Suarez would help resolve the problem.
    ……..
    The internal company records provide details, for the first time, of Suarez’s private work for the developer while he held public office at City Hall — raising legal and ethical questions about the relationship between his role as mayor and his job as a developer’s consultant.
    ……..
    “Mayor Suarez did not engage in any lobbying activities for Urbin,” Suarez’s spokeswoman told the Herald. She called the internal records’ characterization of Suarez’s role “inaccurate.”

    Neither Kapoor nor Suarez explained why the Coral Gables-based development company’s internal records indicate that the mayor used his influence at City Hall to assist a client quietly paying him $10,000 a month.
    ………

    Par for the course in Florida.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  327. Horse race or marathon, Tim Scott and the other Lilliputians are far behind.

    The point being that “horse race” coverage of campaigns, myopically focused on polls is both backward-looking and uninformative as to the candidates, their ideas or the policies they would prefer.

    All polls do is sample what people are thinking NOW (or last month). Since people are fickle (cult members excluded) this means nothing. The entire “if the election were held now” meme is a lie; it’s not being held now.

    It’s not even good horse race reporting as we are not even at the first turn yet.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  328. Neither is out of moves, yet.

    And there are several moving pieces. Disney will lose the fight over the district board’s powers — the outgoing board’s last minute surrender of all their powers to Disney is palpable nonsense.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  329. Jonah Goldberg at The Dispatch: Does the GOP Deserve Tim Scott?

    The first thing you should know is that Scott is one of the nicest guys in Washington. Capitol Hill Republicans and just about anybody who knows him like him. Sincerely patriotic and devoutly Christian, Scott is most comfortable preaching, but he manages to avoid being preachy.

    He does this mostly by leaning heavily on his own autobiography as a way to celebrate traditional values and show his gratitude for a country that made it possible for the grandson of a Jim Crow-era cotton farmer to become a United States senator—and possibly president. If you haven’t heard him tell these stories, you will, particularly if you live in any of the early primary states.

    Scott will do his best to convince Republican primary voters that he deserves their vote. The better question is whether many of those voters deserve him.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  330. Since Scott remains a longshot — his best path is for Trump to leave the contest — the most hopeful sign here is that Scott becomes the face of the Republican Party Yet to Come. That after Trump we won’t have a series of wannabe Trumps working the same rubes with the same grift.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  331. Scott is one of the nicest guys in Washington…..

    Nice guys finish last.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  332. The answer to this issue, is for voters to vote in the kinds of people to reduce state taxes, so that you don’t hit the limits of the federal SALT deductions.

    The SALT limits are rather low as it stands. Even in Texas, a moderately affluent family will hit the limit with property taxes (MUCH higher than California on the same valuation). Two-income professional couples in many states saw huge federal tax increases as a result of Trump’s “tax cut.”

    But of course that was the point. Trump has very little support from the upper middle class, the professional classes or even college graduates. His tax cut was aimed at the working classes, not the investing classes; people who did not go to college and/or get an hourly wage, not to mention people on fixed retirement incomes.

    The giant increase in the standard deduction dropped a lot of people off the tax roles completely and reduced taxes a lot for households with 5-figure incomes. Those people don’t want to see their taxes jacked back up.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  333. Nice guys finish last.

    People liked Reagan, too.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  334. They say that Democrats and their Press will demonize any Republican running for president. Demonize Scott at your peril.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  335. Demonize Scott at your peril.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 10:10 am

    We’ll see how long he lasts.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  336. About 91% of the old unlimited SALT deduction was claimed by people with more than $100K in state and local taxes, and most of them in six states (CA, NY, IL, NJ, PA and (yes) Texas).

    Were Congress to raise the SALT deduction cap to $50K for single filers and $100K for married (currently $10K for either), it would lower federal income taxes paid by 2 or 3 billion dollars.

    If they also raised the top rate a point or two, it would a net cut in the deficit.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  337. Default prediction: Very soon Biden will have given up enough that 10 or 20 Republicans will decide enough is enough.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  338. We’ll see how long he lasts.

    Indeed. He has the money to run for a while. I see Haley and Hutchinson dropping out and endorsing him, and some others won’t get in — and also endorse him (e.g. Sununu).

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  339. Holding the Line:

    ……..
    Ahead of another round of negotiations with the White House, McCarthy told Republicans they had the upper hand in the discussions and encouraged his members to show their support for colleagues facing tough reelection bids next year as a sign of unity, according to two people in attendance, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the private talk. McCarthy urged members to make sure vulnerable lawmakers would have plenty of campaign money from GOP coffers — even pledging that they would not be outraised by their opponents in the 2024 election cycle, the people said of the meeting, which took place at the Capitol Hill Club. (McCarthy’s office declined to comment.)
    …….
    After refusing to negotiate for months, President Biden’s aides last week offered the GOP substantial concessions on the federal budget — including a freeze on spending for two years — that nonpartisan estimates have projected could cut deficits by as much as $1 trillion over the next decade.

    ………Not only have (Republicans) ruled out Biden’s proposals to increase revenue by closing tax loopholes — traditionally a part of bipartisan deals to lower the deficit — but they are also insisting on increasing spending on the military, homeland security and veterans services while cutting funds for domestic programs. That would be a change from how a similar standoff was resolved in 2011, when the last bipartisan bill to raise the debt limit and cut spending passed — the Budget Control Act, which affected defense and nondefense budgets equally.
    ……….
    The standoff is increasing the chances lawmakers do not reach agreement by June 1, when the Treasury Department says the government could run out of money. Talks were set to resume Wednesday afternoon at the White House. Around midday, major stock market indexes were all down slightly, as Wall Street begins to focus on the risks of a possible U.S. default.
    ………
    (McCarthy) must appease some of the demands made by the far-right House Freedom Caucus, which continues to insist that the House-passed legislation from last month should simply become law. But Biden and Senate Democrats have already said that won’t happen, which means GOP House leaders are trying to cut a bipartisan deal that can get a majority of their own lawmakers and also attract enough Democratic votes to pass. Without the Freedom Caucus, Republicans wouldn’t have 218 votes to raise the debt ceiling.
    ………
    Some conservative lawmakers do not think the looming deadline is real. At the meeting Tuesday morning near the Capitol, four House Republicans rose to question the Treasury Department’s assertion that the government could run out of money by as soon as June 1. Some were more adamant than others, but many in the House Freedom Caucus emerged from the conference meeting saying Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen needs to show proof of the actual “X-date” — when the government can’t meet its obligations.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  340. We’ll see how long he lasts.

    Indeed. He has the money to run for a while. I see Haley and Hutchinson dropping out and endorsing him, and some others won’t get in — and also endorse him (e.g. Sununu).

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 10:37 am

    Money isn’t everything. He needs to get votes, and if he doesn’t win in South Carolina, he will be toast.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  341. Morning Consult GOP Primary Tracking Poll
    ………
    DeSantis’ standing improves slightly before campaign launch: DeSantis trails Trump by 38 percentage points (20% to 58%) among potential GOP primary voters, a mild improvement from a 44-point deficit clocked in Morning Consult surveys conducted in mid-May. …….

    Scott launches campaign with meager support: Just 2% of potential GOP primary voters support South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who launched his 2024 presidential bid on Monday. …….

    Biden and Trump are tied: Biden and Trump are tied at 42% in a hypothetical general election matchup, marking Trump’s best showing against the incumbent president among the overall electorate since early April. Biden leads DeSantis by 3 points (43% to 40%).
    ……..
    Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are backed by 4% of the party’s electorate……
    ………
    Former Vice President Mike Pence is the second choice of 14% of Trump supporters and 12% of DeSantis backers. Haley is the second choice for 12% of DeSantis supporters, while Ramaswamy is the backup option for 7% of Trump backers and 10% of DeSantis supporters.
    ………
    Trump is popular with 80% of the party’s potential electorate, while 19% view him unfavorably.
    …….
    Just over half of GOP voters (51%) view Haley favorably, while 47% say the same of Ramaswamy, 41% say the same of Scott and 20% say the same of Hutchinson.
    ………
    Roughly 7 in 10 GOP primary voters (71%) heard nothing about Scott in advance of his Monday campaign launch…….
    ……….
    Few potential GOP primary voters are paying attention to Trump’s current challengers for the Republican nomination, with 81% saying they’d not recently heard anything about Hutchinson, 67% saying the same about Haley and 62% saying the same about Ramaswamy.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  342. CNN: Trump leads 2024 GOP primary field, but many voters are open to supporting other candidates
    ………
    Trump is the first choice of 53% Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the primary, roughly doubling DeSantis’ 26%. But the survey also finds that wide swaths of Republican-aligned voters are willing to consider either of the two, as well as several other candidates. More than 8 in 10 either support or say they’re open to considering Trump (84%) and DeSantis (85%), and smaller majorities say they support or would consider former UN ambassador Nikki Haley (61%), Scott (60%) and former Vice President Mike Pence (54%). Haley and Pence are currently the first choice of 6%, according to the poll, with Scott at 2% along with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and five other candidates hold 1% support or less.

    ………Sixty percent say they would not support Christie for the nomination under any circumstances, and 55% say they’d never support former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson or New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, respectively.
    ………
    The former president’s primary support now falls short of a majority among some relatively small blocs of Republican and Republican-leaning voters – among them, those who say President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory was legitimate (27% of whom support him), White college graduates (38%), self-described moderates or liberals (45%), and independents who lean toward the GOP (43%). But voters in those groups have yet to unite more strongly around any alternative either, with DeSantis below the 30% mark with each group and other candidates still further behind.
    ……..
    Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say they’re at least fairly satisfied with the current field of Republican candidates running for president, although just 18% describe themselves as very satisfied. Only 7% say they’re not satisfied at all. That assessment is similar to GOP-aligned voters’ view of their options in July 2015, shortly after Trump entered the race, though somewhat less buoyant than Democrats’ rating of their own large primary field in June 2019.

    In the latest poll, Trump’s supporters are the most likely to be content – 82% who name him as their first choice express satisfaction with the field overall. …….
    ………
    Overall, Trump maintains a 77% overall favorability rating among GOP-aligned voters, with just 18% viewing him unfavorably. ……
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  343. We live in a 24/7 cycle…which does not facilitate patience. People have not yet been confronted with actually voting for someone unhinged….with indictments…found guilty of defamation. I am cynical as heck about the GOP electorate, but we need patience to see how the candidates will operate. Wake me in late August and let’s see where we are at.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  344. He needs to get votes, and if he doesn’t win in South Carolina, he will be toast.

    Suppose Trump loses NH or IA?

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  345. Overall, Trump maintains a 77% overall favorability rating among GOP-aligned voters, with just 18% viewing him unfavorably. ……

    Will that go up or down if he’s charged with insurrection and conspiracy to commit treason? Will Trump demand an early trial, or will he try to delay?

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  346. There’s also been no real negative ads. The GOP understands that you need all of the baggage out before the Democrats unload it in the general. At some point, electability will be challenged by someone. At some point Trump’s ridiculous answers about J6 and 2020 will be challenged. I don’t buy that it will have no effect. As we get closer to primaries next year, people will pay attention more and have an opportunity to listen more closely to alternatives. Right now, people are being excluded by voters on the most peripheral basis.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  347. Will (Trump’s approval) go up or down if he’s charged with insurrection and conspiracy to commit treason? Will Trump demand an early trial, or will he try to delay?

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 1:11 pm

    1. He won’t be charged with either insurrection or conspiracy to commit treason. But if he is indicted for something else related to January 6th, his approval will go up.

    2. There will be a long delay anyway since his legal team will need to review all of the evidence accumulated by the prosecution. A delay works in his favor, since he will either be reelected, thereby aborting any trial, or he will be pardoned by the next Republican president.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  348. RIP Tina Turner (83).

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  349. https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2023/05/trump-scott-desantis-gop-primary/674139

    ….Of course, in a normal year, a twice-impeached president who has been held liable for sexual abuse would do the decent thing and vanish from public life.

    The United States desperately needs a normal presidential election….

    ….Such an election, however, requires two functional political parties. The Republicans are in the grip of a cult of personality, so there’s little hope for a normal GOP primary and almost none for a traditional presidential election. Meanwhile, Republican candidates refuse to take a direct run at Donald Trump and speak the truth—loudly—to his voters; instead, they talk about all of the good that Trump has done but then plead with voters to understand that Trump is unelectable. (Hutchinson, who is unequivocal in his view of Trump, has been an honorable exception here and has called for Trump to drop out.)

    The electability argument about Trump is not only amoral, but it also might not even be true: Trump might be able to win again. In normal times, there’s nothing wrong with “electability” arguments. It is hardly the low road, if presented with two reasonable candidates in a primary, to choose the one who can prevail in a general election. But such a choice assumes the existence of “reasonable” candidates.
    Instead, some of the Republicans who are running or leaning toward running against Trump are saying, in effect, that Trump really should be the candidate, but he can’t win—instead of saying, unequivocally, that no decent party should ever nominate this man again, whether he can win or not.

    Republican contenders are caught in a bind. If they run against Trump, they will likely lose. But if they don’t run against Trump, they will certainly lose—to Trump, and then everyone in America loses. GOP primary candidates want to pick up Trump’s voters without overtly selling them Trump’s lies and conspiracy theories, which is why the “electability” dodge is nothing but pandering and cowardice. Not that any of these hopefuls have tried to lay a punch on Trump: Haley is AWOL—is she even still running?—and DeSantis is busy clomping around with flaming wastebaskets on his feet as he tries to stomp out fires he’s already set.

    Tim Scott is an especially vexing case, because he has a life story that should have made him the natural anti-Trump candidate in every way. A religious man who triumphed over poverty, got an education, and became a successful businessman, his life and character are a photo-negative image of Trump’s. And yet, Scott can’t help himself: He’s “thankful” for Trump’s years in office.

    [That’s not bad. You could say Trump’s appointees were mostly good- and if he had courage you could attribute that to Senate confirmation and its overspill even to other offices, like White House chief of staff. Mick Mulvaney has endorsed Tim Scott]

    None of these Republicans are going to overcome the Thanos from Queens, who, with a snap of his fingers, will soon make half of the GOP field disappear.

    These Republicans are likely waiting for a miracle, an act of God that takes Trump out of contention. And by “act of God,” of course, they mean “an act of Fani Willis or Jack Smith.” This is a vain hope:

    Without a compelling argument from within the Republican Party that Fani Willis and Jack Smith or for that matter, Alvin Bragg, are right to indict Trump—as Bragg has done and Willis and Smith could do soon—and that the former president is a menace to the country, Trump will simply brush away his legal troubles and hope he can sprint to the White House before he’s arrested.

    [Sic. He’s already been arrested and released in New York. Tom Nichols should write convicted. BTW, neither Atlanta or Jan 6 are good cases, and obstruction at Mar-a-Lago is basically blatant contempt of court and not a danger to national security and I doubt most people in Washington would want to hold to an interpretation of the Espionage Act that would cover what Trump did. What some Democrats want to believe about him, isn’t true.]

    No one is going to displace Trump by running gently. A candidate who takes Trump on, with moral force and directness, might well lose the nomination, but he or she could at least inject some sanity into the Republican-primary process and set the stage for the eventual recovery—a healing that will take years—of the GOP or some reformed successor as a center-right party. DeSantis would rather be elected as Trump’s Mini-Me. (It might work.) Hutchinson has tried to speak up, but too quietly. Haley, like so many other former Trump officials, is too compromised by service to Trump to be credible as his nemesis. Tim Scott is perfectly positioned to make the case, but he won’t.

    A Republican who thinks Trump can be beaten in a primary by gargling warm words such as electability is a Republican in denial. [or is relying on somebody else to make the case] Trump is already creating a reality-distortion field around the primary, as he will again in the general election. Is it possible that the GOP base would respond to some fire and brimstone about Trump, instead of from him? We cannot know, because it hasn’t been tried—yet.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  350. Trump’s statements on CNN have been added to the first Carroll case, which was filed 2019, but delayed by appeals (on rather flimsy grounds)This was the one for defamation for denying it and attackibg her motives.

    She partially won the second case, for rape itself, filed in 2022 when the statute of limitations was waived for one year in which the jury decided that there was an over 50% chance that something untoward happened to E. Jean Carroll, but less than a 50% chance it qualified as rape.

    They seem to have believed that the 50-50 line would be where Trump tried out what he said he would do on the Access Hollywood tape (but that he guessed wrong about her reaction.)

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  351. Remember, it’s several seasons before the first primary. Among those who were leading at this point:

    ’67: Johnson
    ’71: Ted Kennedy, Hubert Humphrey, Edmund Muskie (shared lead)
    ’75: Ted Kennedy, George Wallace, Hubert Humphrey
    ’87: Gary Hart
    `91: Jerry Brown
    ’03: Dick Gephardt, Howard Dean

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  352. I read something about why polls were wrong last year about the midterm elections.

    It argues it can’t be because of abortion or Donald Trump because the question is why wasn’t that picked up in the pre-election polls?

    .It argues that in seven or eight states Democrats increased turnout, including by absentee voting, while the polls tried to select likely voters.

    But the real truth is that polling is very much an art with a response rate of well under 10%. They have to weigh the answers by other answers

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  353. A Republican who thinks Trump can be beaten in a primary by gargling warm words such as electability is a Republican in denial

    At some point, a candidate who sees the exit door on her path will decide that being anti-Trump now will be worth more later. And so they will go down swinging, doing some damage, and making the issue harder for the remaining candidates to dodge.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  354. They have to weigh the answers by other answers

    Or by what other polls are telling them.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  355. 338. Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 10:27 am

    Default prediction: Very soon Biden will have given up enough that 10 or 20 Republicans will decide enough is enough.

    The question is will the most conservative Republicans start an effort to oust Kevin McCarthy as Speaker for compromising too much, and, if so, will the Democrats save him?

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  356. Suppose Trump loses NH or IA?

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 1:09 pm

    Trump and DeSantis are duking it out in Iowa right now. It all boils down to how much DeSantis or Scott promise in farm subsidies.

    As we saw in the audience for Trump’s town hall, New Hampshire is Trump territory. He leads with a RCP average +18 points over DeSantis (and +27 over Sununu).

    I don’t think it would be fatal to Trump’s campaign if he lost both; he certainly wouldn’t withdraw. The big one is South Carolina; it’s an opportunity to kneecap the campaigns of Darling Nikki and Scott. If they can’t win in their home state and the first in the South primary, where do they expect to win in the South?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  357. A Republican who thinks Trump can be beaten in a primary by gargling warm words such as electability is a Republican in denial..

    Great quote.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  358. At some point, a candidate who sees the exit door on her path will decide that being anti-Trump now will be worth more later. And so they will go down swinging, doing some damage, and making the issue harder for the remaining candidates to dodge.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 1:47 pm

    Now that is wishful thinking. Trumpism is the mainstay philosophy of the Republican Party, the “good old days” are dead and buried. There are at least two other Trumpist candidates running-DeSantis and Vivek. Vivek has already passed Darling Nikki by one or two points in some polls.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  359. At some point, a candidate who sees the exit door on her path will decide that being anti-Trump now will be worth more later

    There is no point in burning bridges on your way out.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  360. 355. Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 1:49 pm

    Or by what other polls are telling them.

    They do that a lot, which is why, in some elections, polls tend to converge in the end — on the wrong outcome.

    538 arhues that the polls were pretty good in 2022, but better for House races than statewide races.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy

    But this isn’t as impressive as it sounds. The “House polls” group includes district-level polls of individual House races and national generic-congressional-ballot polls. And something we noticed early on in 2022 was that pollsters were conducting more generic-ballot polls and fewer district-level polls. Overall, since 1998, 21 percent of the House polls in our pollster-ratings database have been generic-ballot polls — but in 2021-22, 46 percent were. That’s higher than in any other election cycle.

    And generic-ballot polls are historically much more accurate than district-level polls. Since 1998, generic-ballot polls have had a weighted-average error of 3.9 points, while district-level polls have had a weighted-average error of 6.7. So, by eschewing district polls in favor of generic-ballot polls last year, pollsters made their jobs much easier.

    But that’s not the only reason House polls were more accurate in this past cycle. The few district-level polls conducted had a weighted-average error of only 5.0 points — the lowest of any cycle since at least 1998.

    The second lens we use to gauge polling accuracy is how often polls “called” the election correctly. In other words, did the candidate who led a poll win their race?7 Historically, across all elections analyzed since 1998, polling leaders come out on top 78 percent of the time (again using a weighted average). By this metric, the 2021-22 cycle was the least accurate in recent history…

    Statistical bias tends to bounce around from cycle to cycle. Sure, the polls had overestimated Democrats in three of the past four elections before 2022. But before that, in 2012, they overestimated Republicans. And there was barely any polling bias in the three cycles before that.

    This is why we’re constantly warning people against trying to predict the direction of polling error in advance. In fact, we’ve noticed that when pundits try to predict polling bias, they have a knack for guessing wrong. See, pollsters aren’t passive actors in all this.

    Pollsters are well aware when their polls have a bad year. Many adjust their methodology to avoid making the same mistakes. [the next time]

    Simply put, if polling is broken, pollsters don’t just sit on their hands; they try to fix it!

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  361. Something went wrong with “harm reduction” for opioid addicts in San Francisco.

    It got to a point where they were mainly testing the drugs for the addicts and the addicts were being supplied by drug dealers who recruited them to engage in shoplifting for resale to pay for the drugs.

    They closed it down, the death rate rose but that may be more because something was being added to the drugs which Narcan had no effect on.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  362. 324. whembly (d116f3) — 5/24/2023 @ 6:53 am

    Hitler NEVER hid the fact that he hated Communist Russia.

    More like envied him. This opposition could not be based on principle. Stalin knew that.

    Jesse’s overall premise, is that Tim Scott is genuine a nice guy and could be that stable elder statements that many wants. But this country needs a fighter to counter the insane Democrat leftist that has infected DC.

    Scott has experience with Democrats sabotaging compromise bills.

    He seems to be anti-Democrat policy:

    https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/tim-scott-2024-presidential-announcement-speech-transcript

    …In Biden’s America, crime is on the rise and law enforcement is in retreat. The far left is ending cash bails. They’re demonizing, demoralizing, and defunding the police. I grew up in neighborhoods alongside people who ended up incarcerated or in the cemetery, not seminary. Seminary too, but cemetery as well. We needed more public safety, not less.

    …..Tim Scott (19:57):

    Thank you. You see, they’re attacking our American values, our schools, our economy, and our security. Not on my watch. Not on my watch. That won’t work. I cannot stand by while this is done to America. She’s done too much for me. Our nation, our values, and our people are strong, but our president is weak. America is not a nation [inaudible 00:20:43]. Thank you. Let’s see if this one works. All right, good catch. Under Joe Biden, our nation is not a nation in decline, but under Joe Biden, we have become a nation in retreat. Retreating from our heritage and our history. Retreating from personal responsibility and hard work, retreating from strength and security,

    Tim Scott (22:00):

    … even retreating from religious liberty and the worship of God himself. They say opportunity in America is a myth and faith in America is a fraud, but the truth of my life disproves their lies. The good news is all we need to do is turn around. …

    And then he goes on about the southern border and people on the terrorist watch list – doesn’t ask himself why none of them ever do anything/Lists can be full of nonsense. If they were real, they should be arrested and interrogated.

    Then this:

    When I am president, the drug cartels using Chinese labs and Mexican factories to kill Americans will cease to exist. I will freeze their assets. I will build the wall and I will allow the world’s greatest military to fight these terrorists because that’s exactly what they are. Security needs starts on our border, but it doesn’t end there.

    War with Mexico? Or drone strikes in Mexico? He has to be able to defend that.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  363. Gaetz says most in GOP ‘don’t feel like we should negotiate with our hostage’
    ………
    “My conservative colleagues for the most part support, ‘Limit, Save, Grow,’ and they don’t feel like we should negotiate with our hostage,” Gaetz told Semafor on Tuesday, doubling down on his support for the House-passed GOP bill that would cut spending by an average of 18 percent in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.

    Hard-line conservatives have made clear they would oppose any deal that does not extract major concessions from President Biden, making the task of striking a deal with enough broad support even more difficult. At the same time, McCarthy must still consider the constant threat that any member of his conference could call for a motion to vacate at any time — a reality Gaetz acknowledged in his comments to Semafor.

    “I believe the one-person motion to vacate has given us the best version of Speaker McCarthy, and I think he’s doing a good job,” Gaetz said Tuesday, touting the provision that he helped secure in exchange for his eventual support of McCarthy’s speakership bid in January.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  364. Joke Punchline 1: “I don’t know, man. I’ve never looked.”

    Joke Punchline 2: “No, man, but I bet it hurts like hell.”

    nk (7be3aa)

  365. More on the South Carolina 6-week bill:

    The bill—which requires a woman seeking an abortion to have two in-person doctor’s visits and two ultrasounds before her sixth week of pregnancy and offers exceptions for rape, incest, fatal fetal abnormalities, and risks to the life of the mother—now goes before GOP Gov. Henry McMaster, who has said he will sign it.

    So, a woman needs to
    1) determine that she is pregnant, usually by missing a period. (this would be a minimum of two weeks after conception. Home pregnancy tests are usually only valid after 10 days).

    But let’s suppose she’s on top of it, now what? She has to:

    2) schedule an in-person doctor visit, and hopefully this would lead to an ultrasound being scheduled
    3) Have an ultrasound
    4) have a second in-person doctor visit
    5) get a second ultrasound.
    6) schedule an abortion.

    Steps 2-6 need to be completed in at most 4 weeks. There a number of problems. Not only is it sometimes hard to get a doctor visit, but poor women might not have a regular doctor and Medicaid at best. Further, that second ultrasound might not be in line with Medicaid or other insurance guidelines.

    But let’s say she hustles and is ready for the abortion at 5 weeks. But wait, doctors who perform an abortion on a fetus more than 6 weeks old are guilty of a felony and can be fined, imprisoned and struck off. They may not want to take a chance on “probably 5 weeks.”

    Note that women who have irregular periods have even worse problems. They may not know they are pregnant until after the 6 weeks is gone.

    The following is no surprise:

    The vote also came after the three Republican women in the Senate urged the other members of their party to adopt a 12-week abortion ban as they fought additional restrictions one month after helping filibuster a near-total ban. They joined all Democrats in voting against the bill.

    The women of the Senate known as the “sister senators” — the three Republicans, one Democrat and one independent who are the only women in the 46-member chamber — entered the State House together Tuesday to rousing cheers from dozens of abortion rights supporters gathered on the main floor. All five donned buttons that read “elect more women.”

    Either there will be a lot more women running in GOP districts, or the GOP is going to get its pee-pee whacked in 2024.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  366. A few years back I said that I doubted that the Supreme Court would overturn Roe, as it would also overturn the expectations of 3 generations of women of child-bearing age, and that those women would not be willing to lose that safety valve.

    Even if it is only 1/3rd of female voters who go to polls seeking revenge, that’s enough to wipe out GOP majorities in nearly any state. See Kansas.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  367. Opposition to abortion may have been a thing 50 years ago, but it’s not 50 years ago. Yes, Roe was a mistake, but does anyone really think that abortion bans would be in effect in any state if Roe had never happened?

    If you do, tell me about the marijuana laws in your state and if you think they’ll hold.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  368. “I believe the one-person motion to vacate has given us the best version of Speaker McCarthy, and I think he’s doing a good job,” Gaetz said Tuesday, touting the provision that he helped secure in exchange for his eventual support of McCarthy’s speakership bid in January.

    The people to talk to are not the hard Right, but the centrists. Michelle Steele, for example.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  369. Roe was a mistake, but does anyone really think that abortion bans would be in effect in any state if Roe had never happened?

    Yes.

    Prior to Roe v. Wade, 30 states prohibited abortion without exception, 16 states banned abortion except in certain special circumstances (e.g. rape, incest, and health threat to mother), 3 states allowed residents to obtain abortions, and New York allowed abortions generally.

    Source

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  370. I see we have another mentally ill neo nazi or neo something or other. This one trying to ram his way into an area blocks from the WH with duct tape and a manifesto. Plan was to “seize power”… with duct tape and manifesto. Bold, audacious plan, or lunacy?

    steveg (4533d6)

  371. The people to talk to are not the hard Right, but the centrists. Michelle Steele, for example.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 3:56 pm

    It’s the hard right (the Freedom Caucus) that controls the balance of power in the Republican caucus. Centrists won’t threaten McCarthy with a “motion to vacate” but the FC just might to get their way.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  372. Latest poll biden most unpopular president. CBS news tonight does show with IRS whistleblower about justice department slow walking hunter biden prosecution. Coincidence? 50 years ago gun control gets democrats voted out of office. Today abortion gets republicans voted out of office. You anti-abortionists whine like gun controllers wined 50 years ago. Uvalde anniversary is today. Nothing will ever get done until democrats run on you take 19 children we take 19 nra republicans in congress for prosecution for accessory to murder and jail them in some hell hole.

    asset (62a5f7)

  373. Any Republican “moderate” who votes with the Democrats on their discharge petition is committing political suicide. Which is why the Republican Caucus is solidly behind McCarthy (and why he can’t slip up.)

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  374. The people to talk to are not the hard Right, but the centrists. Michelle Steele, for example.

    The people to talk to are in the Senate.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  375. If McCarthy was a real man, he would have withdrawn his name from nomination after the second vote. Now all Washington has his measure. A cheapie holding out for a twenty when everybody knows she can be had for a dime sack.

    nk (63c351)

  376. Any Republican “moderate” who votes with the Democrats on their discharge petition is committing political suicide.

    That’s a different vote. That one is a flat out debt limit increase, with nothing to show for it. A surrender. But Biden has now put some stuff on the table. Is it enough? Apparently some in the caucus thought so, be have been convinced to hold off. For now. But the are not going to go over the edge for MTG and Gaetz.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  377. The people to talk to are in the Senate.

    Whatever the House agrees to, the Senate will go along.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  378. I see we have another mentally ill neo nazi or neo something or other. This one trying to ram his way into an area blocks from the WH with duct tape and a manifesto. Plan was to “seize power”… with duct tape and manifesto. Bold, audacious plan, or lunacy?

    A lot like the aerial attack on the Kremlin that couldn’t even blow up the flagpole.

    But that, they say, was staged by Putin.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  379. A cheapie holding out for a twenty when everybody knows she can be had for a dime sack.

    “…haggling over the price.”

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  380. Whatever the House agrees to, the Senate will go along.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 5:12 pm

    The House passed a debt ceiling increase a week ago.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  381. I see we have another mentally ill neo nazi or neo something or other. This one trying to ram his way into an area blocks from the WH with duct tape and a manifesto. Plan was to “seize power”… with duct tape and manifesto. Bold, audacious plan, or lunacy?

    TrumpWorld calls it a FBI false flag:

    …….A false flag, with a flag as the center piece. These people lack subtelty……What does it say when the nation’s top law enforcement agency would conduct a totally fabricated event to push a political agenda…….whatsamatter? they couldnt find a MAGA hat?…..And the media was ALL OVER IT in an instant. Almost like they knew beforehand. Gee, wonder why that was…….I figure that some agency in the deep state had an “outside contractor” who became associated with the mental defective and help trigger him into his stupid stunt. Biden needs a stunt like this to back up his “domestic terrorism” theme in his reelection campaign. ……..Biden needs a ‘crisis’ to get his poll numbers up of the floor. This was a pathetic attempt to do that. ……..Whoever invented this false flag event and thought it would work is a complete idiot. …….Two weeks ago, we had a mestizo Hispanic “Nazi” killing seven people at an outlet mall inn Allen, Texas. Now we have an Asian Indian “Nazi” trying to crash the White House gate with a U-Haul truck. ……..Crashed into the barricade at a whopping 5 miles an hour so as not to injure the FBI CI/Subcontractor ……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  382. A lot like the aerial attack on the Kremlin that couldn’t even blow up the flagpole.

    But that, they say, was staged by Putin.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 5:14 pm

    Ukrainians Were Likely Behind Kremlin Drone Attack, U.S. Officials Say

    U.S. officials said the drone attack on the Kremlin earlier this month was likely orchestrated by one of Ukraine’s special military or intelligence units, the latest in a series of covert actions against Russian targets that have unnerved the Biden administration.
    ……….
    The agencies reached their preliminary assessment in part through intercepted communications in which Russian officials blamed Ukraine and other communications in which Ukrainian officials said they believed their country was responsible for the attack, in which two drones were flown on May 3 toward the Kremlin, causing little damage.
    ………
    American spy agencies see an emerging picture of a loose confederation of Ukrainian units able to conduct limited operations inside and outside Russia, either by using their own personnel or partners working under their direction. Some of these missions could have been conducted with little, if any, oversight from Mr. Zelensky, officials said.
    ………
    American officials similarly view the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines — which carried natural gas from Russia to Europe — as the work of pro-Ukrainian operatives whose ties to the Ukrainian government have yet to be determined.
    ………
    Though the drone attack caused little damage, it punctured the sense of security and invincibility the Kremlin has sought to portray within Moscow despite the chaos it has created with its war in Ukraine.
    ………
    ………(A)fter the attack, the United States intercepted communications in which Russian officials were overheard discussing the incident and the findings of Moscow’s preliminary investigation into what took place. In those internal discussions, Russian officials seemed surprised by the drone intrusion and blamed Ukraine. U.S. officials said this intelligence helped convince them that the attack was not carried out by the Russians.
    ……….
    While the covert attacks appear to have had little effect so far on the course of the conflict in Ukraine, they have demonstrated Kyiv’s ability to penetrate deep inside Russia. U.S. officials say the goal of the operations may be to bolster Ukrainian morale and to pierce the aura of invulnerability that surrounds President Vladimir V. Putin.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  383. Failure to Launch:

    The start of a much-anticipated Twitter event in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis planned to announce his 2024 Republican presidential bid was repeatedly disrupted Wednesday when Twitter’s servers apparently could not handle the surge in traffic.

    Some Twitter users reported that the app crashed as they tried to listen to the event where Twitter owner Elon Musk joined DeSantis for the announcement. When the event continued after the frequent early glitches, DeSantis was asked a series of overwhelmingly friendly questions that allowed him to highlight his go-to talking points.
    ……….
    ……….Voices early in the Twitter Spaces event were openly concerned Trump would take advantage of the early glitches, a notable admission because the event was set up by DeSantis supporters.’

    “This is going to be a stain that Trump is going to leverage for at least a few weeks,” one organizer said amid the event’s early glitches.

    At times, DeSantis’ account appeared absent from the audio-only event on the feature known as Twitter Spaces. Metrics published by Twitter said that more than 600,000 were attempting to listen.
    ……….
    By the time DeSantis got the moment his political team had spent weeks negotiating, there were fewer than 70,000 viewers remaining, a significantly smaller audience than is traditional for a major presidential campaign launch.
    ………

    Related:

    No one liked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign launch more than former President Donald Trump.

    “Wow. The DeSanctus TWITTER launch is a DISASTER!” Trump wrote on the Truth Social media platform. “His whole campaign will be a disaster. WATCH!”
    ………..
    As hundreds of thousands of listeners logged off, Trump allies shared images to represent their excitement: a glass of wine and a laughing-to-tears emoji among them. Trump quickly posted a video to Truth Social that showed contrasting images of his boisterous campaign announcement last year and a Twitter screen showing the DeSantis discussion “Preparing to launch.”
    …………
    “Glitchy. Tech issues. Uncomfortable silences. A complete failure to launch,” Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said. “And that’s just the candidate.”
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  384. More competent “CAN DO!” from DeSantis. Now he has two trashcans on his feet. The first one is still flaming.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  385. Rip-
    Tongue in cheek, I’d say FBI False Flag is a better take intellectually than saying this was a serious neo-nazi right wing attack on the WH, and that is not saying much. I’m not a mental health professional, but a mentally capable person, in my admittedly uneducated view, does not attempt to “storm” the WH in a UHAUL that is empty except for a manifesto/window into the mind of a lunatic, and a roll of duct tape. I’d also go out on a limb and say that neo-nazis of SW Asian descent are almost as rare as those of African American descent.

    steveg (4533d6)

  386. The House passed a debt ceiling increase a week ago.

    Well, yes, but they knew that would not pass the Senate. The compromise one will, if Biden says OK.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  387. I’d also go out on a limb and say that neo-nazis of SW Asian descent are almost as rare as those of African American descent.

    Well, I know a redneck prepper Maoist, so it’s hard to say.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  388. I was listening (lightly) to the radio today while driving and think I heard a DDA LA County prosecutor (not the host) say in an interview that in LA County, 4% of the population is Female, African-American, but they make up 33% of homicide victims? If so, wow, that is an awful awful thing. My guess was that since most male African American homicide victims are killed by other African American males, with other males of color coming in at a distant second place, that the African American women might have the same overall dynamic, but with a few extra white guys thrown into the mix? Either way, it was a real mid bending statistic and I wish I’d been able to listen closer

    steveg (4533d6)

  389. If I was hiring faculty at CSU Monterey Bay in its earliest days, a black/native american transgender redneck prepper maoist would start my diversity program off with a bang. I could sign three straight white guys late in the draft and no one would notice

    steveg (4533d6)

  390. Even without the glitches, announcing on Twitter, audio only, with Elon Musk was pitiful to begin with. No flash and no class either. What was he aiming for? The coveted nebbish demographic?

    nk (354d80)

  391. What I posted at the Dispatch

    My emerging conclusion is that we need a centrist party NOW.

    Biden is obviously not a far lefty and not a threat to democracy, but he’s a placeholder looking for signs of dementia. If he was bread, we would have thrown him out for the coming election. But the Democrats don’t exactly have a thriving stable of alternatives. No one but weirdos at this point appear to be willing to challenge Biden…..even as a failsafe for a health crisis. Given Biden’s numbers and Harris’ standing, this is malpractice. Adding-in the perpetual call for free stuff, identity politics, and demagoguery on the border and there’s just not a lot of centrist appeal. The Democrats also have an impending slobberknocker with the Sanders/AOC wing that is not encouraging to non-socialists.

    Now on the Right, we are being told the choice is between an unhinged narcissist and a socially-awkward authoritarian. AllahNick confidently announces that all other options are wastes-of-time that have no path to the nomination. If true, then the GOP offers nothing to someone normal. The hope, apparently, will be that one more loss will break the trance. I’m starting to question this wisdom. If the case against Trump is not obvious and if DeSantis is not clearly too extreme for the general, then what will the loss accomplish? We will just see some new election denialism and a call for an even more charismatic authoritarian. The GOP is broke and waiting for the clown car to empty has taxed my patience.

    Put something in the middle. Now let’s not pretend that it will be easy to find a credible candidate that is willing to burn his/her bridges, that is personable and doesn’t have a ton of partisan baggage. You have to sell vanilla to a customer core hyped up on anything but vanilla. But imagine the possibility. There are both disaffected Democrats and Republicans starving for normal. Can you get 35% of the population to abandon their bubble and vote “other”? Maybe not but maybe it’s time to send the message anyways….rather than writing in “normal” or doing some deranged nose-holding finger-crossed kabuki, actually create a legitimate choice: Gary Johnson without the weirdness and pot obsession.

    I’ve lost confidence in Democrats and Republicans finding and advancing good candidates. Whether it’s another scourge of social media or a culture of tediousness, I’m not sure I care to linger on the diagnosis. I want a better option and I don’t think I’m alone…..

    AJ_Liberty (6345ed)

  392. AJ —

    Name a centrist 3rd party in any nation that has done well. I think of things like the Liberal Democrats in the UK and centrist parties on the European continent. They all seem to vaporize — maybe because there is no cohrent ideology of centrism. (Centrists tend to reject ideology — which makes it hard for them to explain what they are all about)

    I had hoped in 2016 that a strong Libertarian vote might help bring the system to its senses, but that dissipated in a haze of pot smoke.

    Since woke radicalism is more a white person thing, I do hope that the african-american vote and the latin-american vote can enforce some sanity on the Democrats. It is what knocked off Bernie in 2020.

    I share your frustration, but a cure for this nation is going to require the patient to want to be cured. The trigger for that is unpredictable.

    Appalled (f51ece)

  393. #391 (nk)

    My guess — DeSantis is aiming for Musk’s bankroll, and was, at a minimum, trying to deny it to Trump.

    Appalled (f51ece)

  394. Hmm. I hadn’t thought of that, Appalled.

    nk (5aba7a)

  395. Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 8:18 pm

    The failure doesn’t reflect too well on Musk too.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  396. My emerging conclusion is that we need a centrist party NOW.

    To paraphrase Don Rumsfeld, you conduct elections with the political parties you have, not the political parties you might want or wish you had.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  397. @393, maybe replace centrist by pragmatist, perhaps in the mold of Larry Hogan or Roy Cooper (or Joe Mancin if Cooper would be unlikely the jump). It’s probably a blend of economic realist (conservative) and social moderate (aka, yes there are problems but maybe authoritarian overreaches aren’t the best solutions). Could such a person find enough votes to be more than just a spoiler? Maybe not but in a Biden-Trump rematch, I think it would give some people something substantive to consider. Again, it’s less a fear of Biden going rouge than of Biden going morgue and elevating Harris to do more than mismanage her dysfunctional personal office. With Trump, it’s a fear that with the guardrails off, he might crash the system if there was some personal benefit to doing so. That he’s going to be down to the C-team of advisors does not inspire confidence.

    However, your core point remains: it’s the people stupid. But, maybe the people need the contrast. Something beyond unhinged and dementia. Still, the people are the people and they appear to want Twinkees and Ho-Ho’s rather than a nutritious balanced meal. I fear that if we don’t moderate and find the adult, we will hit a crisis and something will break. We’re already playing fast and loose with our election system, investigatory agencies, and now our debt management. The banking system had some worrisome hiccups. We can’t agree about what is reasonable for a pandemic. How much incompetence will it take for a true crisis to tear at our democracy? I know what the Russians and Chinese would like to see. It might be too late to wait for the electorate to sober up.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  398. The House passed a debt ceiling increase a week ago.

    Well, yes, but they knew that would not pass the Senate. The compromise one will, if Biden says OK.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 8:21 pm

    Biden will sign anything presented to him to avoid default. McCarthy should be arm twisting the Senate.

    Related

    ………
    While the speaker urged lawmakers to stay close to the nation’s capital over Memorial Day weekend, his top deputy, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, announced that the House will recess following votes on Thursday as negotiators continue to work on a debt ceiling deal.

    “Following tomorrow’s votes, if some new agreement is reached between President Biden and Speaker McCarthy, members will receive 24 hours’ notice in the event we need to return to Washington for any additional votes, either over the weekend or next week,” he said.
    ………
    McCarthy said Thursday morning that negotiators worked past midnight and are inching closer to a potential deal. He reaffirmed that he does believe the June 1 deadline is a real deadline despite some claims from conservatives that the Treasury estimate is off.
    ………
    Warning signs are beginning to pop up: Fitch Ratings placed the top-ranked US sovereign credit rating on rating watch negative Wednesday, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the current debt ceiling debate and the possibility of a first-ever default. The agency, one of the top three credit rating agencies along with Moody’s and S&P, placed the US “AAA” on “rating watch negative,” signaling that it could downgrade US debt if lawmakers do not agree on a bill that raises US Treasury’s debt limit.

    “The Rating Watch Negative reflects increased political partisanship that is hindering reaching a resolution to raise or suspend the debt limit despite the fast-approaching x date (when the U.S. Treasury exhausts its cash position and capacity for extraordinary measures without incurring new debt),” the company said in a statement, though it said it believes a resolution will be found in time.
    ………
    McCarthy has repeatedly warned that the White House and House GOP must reach a deal this week to avoid default, and he has said raising the debt ceiling is the only concession he will make.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  399. “you conduct elections with the political parties you have, not the political parties you might want”

    People can be induced to buy Beanie Babies, Pet Rocks, Snuggies, and Abdomenizers. With shrewd enough marketing, the sky’s the limit. Trump Steaks, Trump Vodka, Trump University, Trump Taj Mahal, Trump Plaza Hotel, and the Trump Network. I can’t believe that there aren’t more savvy marketers out there to craft and sell a political vision.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  400. AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 5/25/2023 @ 9:37 am

    For this election, it is probably too late to launch a new nationwide political party, as state ballot access deadlines are approaching.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  401. @402, I tend to agree because it would likely need a candidate who could self finance that could articulate 2 or 3 national issues that have promise to build coalitions to solve (somewhat like Perot). Because it’s probably less about a new party and more about a new leadership style. The argument in 2016 could have been, neither of the major candidates have the temperament and integrity for the office. We (Johnson and Weld) will be competent administrators that will find ways to work with both parties to solve problems. Clearly Johnson and Weld didn’t make that case. It’s ripe to be made again in 2024 if Trump/Biden get the nominations. I agree that the clock is ticking and no viable candidate is on the radar. It’s looking bad on the GOP side. It’s not looking great on the DEM side. Both remain fluid but trending poorly. Hopefully we see some courage. I think the public would reward courage…done right.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  402. For this election, it is probably too late to launch a new nationwide political party, as state ballot access deadlines are approaching.

    State ballot access laws are confusing at best. To begin with, there are rules for independent candidates, new political parties, political party primaries and party nominees for office. The two major parties are always screwing with the rules to disadvantage some minor parties depending on who they might harm. In New Mexico, the rules have recently been changed to keep any non-Libertarian candidate off the ballot since that helps the ruling Democrats in swing districts.

    Any blanket statement about ballot access timelines is probably wrong. See https://ballot-access.org to see just how crazy it all is. For example, NH is considering moving its primary to late 2023, but that should not affect general election ballot access, which generally remains oven until September of the election year.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  403. Ross Perot’s ballot access campaign started in late February 1992 (NOT 1991). By May, Perot was leading presidential polls in both Texas and California. The new Reform Party, or Perot as an independent, was on all 50 ballots by the November election.

    Of course, Perot dropped out for a couple months, then re-entered the race, by which time his moment had passed. He got 19% of the popular vote and zero EVs.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  404. Ouch!

    ………
    Trump said in a video from his campaign Thursday that Florida had among the highest number of deaths from COVID-19 in the country and shut down numerous public locations at the onset of the pandemic, including beaches.

    “How about the fact that he had the third-most deaths of any state… Even Cuomo did better. He was No. 4,” Trump said.

    Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed that Florida had the third-highest number of COVID-19-related deaths in 2021, while New York had the fourth-most. But the data also shows Florida had the 18th-highest death rate per 100,000 residents that year.
    ………
    “And look at Disney and what a mess it is. Could’ve worked out an easy settlement, but no, he wanted to show the fake news how tough a guy he is. He’s not,” Trump said.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  405. DeSantis says he’ll consider pardoning Jan. 6 defendants, including Trump

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said Thursday that if elected president, he will consider pardoning all the Jan. 6 defendants — including former President Trump — on his first day in office.

    “On day one, I will have folks that will get together and look at all these cases, who people are victims of weaponization or political targeting, and we will be aggressive in issuing pardons,” DeSantis said on “The Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show” podcast when asked about whether he will consider pardoning Jan. 6 defendants, including Trump, who is currently facing a federal investigation over his role on Jan. 6.
    ……….
    DeSantis also accused the Justice Department and the FBI of weaponizing its authority by pursuing ongoing investigations into the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. The Justice Department said earlier this month that 1,033 arrests have been made in connection to the Capitol attacks and about 485 people have been sentenced due to criminal activity conducted that day.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  406. GOP senator vows to delay debt ceiling deal lacking ‘substantial reform’
    ………
    “I will use every procedural tool at my disposal to impede a debt-ceiling deal that doesn’t contain substantial spending and budgetary reforms. I fear things are moving in that direction. If they do, that proposal will not face smooth sailing in the Senate,” (Senator Mike) Lee tweeted Thursday morning in response to media reports that White House negotiators and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) are getting closer to an agreement on spending levels.

    Lee has an array of tools at his disposal to bog down any debt limit deal.

    He could insist on a full reading of the bill and refuse to agree to waive motions to skip other time-consuming procedural formalities on the Senate floor.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  407. Debt Default As a Political Strategy:

    Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel said the U.S. potentially defaulting on its debt would be a boon for Republicans in 2024.

    McDaniel joined Wednesday’s edition of The Story on Fox News, where host Martha MacCallum displayed a poll among Republican presidential contenders amid a possible U.S. default.
    ………

    …….You look at us about to default, and you see that president took 90 days out from negotiating. He refused to come to the table with Republicans. Republicans have put a plan on the table and this is an MIA president when it comes to problems that the American people are facing – whether it’s energy independence, whether it’s fentanyl, whether it’s a broken border, whether it’s crime surging in our streets.

    This is a president that is failing the American people. So I think that bodes very well for the Republican field.

    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  408. The people to talk to are not the hard Right, but the centrists. Michelle Steele, for example.

    Kevin M (213cd6) — 5/24/2023 @ 3:56 pm

    Debt Default As a Political Strategy II.

    ……..House conservatives are growing increasingly unhappy.
    ………
    ……. (S)ome GOP members are consulting a list — said to detail exactly where the negotiators have found common ground — that Rep. Tim Burchett shared with colleagues on the floor Thursday. ……

    Among the details, according to that Republican: An agreement to lift the debt limit through 2024, a procedure in place to incentivize Congress to pass all 12 spending bills and a plan to claw back unspent Covid money. The two sides are also still working out the GOP’s demands for work requirements for certain safety net programs.
    ………
    One of the concerned lawmakers was Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the conservative Freedom Caucus who has repeatedly stated he didn’t want anything less than what the House GOP passed as their debt plan last month.

    McCarthy “doesn’t have the 218 on that unless he gets Democrats,” Norman said of the emerging proposal, noting he saw the list from Burchett. “If he gets Democrats, that’s a telltale sign.”
    ………
    “If that were true, that would absolutely collapse the Republican majority for this debt-ceiling increase,” (Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.)) said.

    The rising conservative angst over what could resemble a final deal is a preview of the intense whipping operation that GOP leaders will need to begin once they’ve locked down an agreement. ………
    ………..
    “I think if the speaker negotiates that with the President, the speaker will find out there’s a lot of Republicans who won’t be agreeing with the speaker,” (said Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.)).
    ……….
    Even if they won’t clearly state how they would vote, members like Norman and Good have said for weeks that they wouldn’t consider anything less than the House bill. ……

    ………Earlier this week, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) argued in a closed-door conference meeting that the deal should be more about saving the country from reckless spending than getting an agreement. ……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  409. He could insist on a full reading of the bill and refuse to agree to waive motions to skip other time-consuming procedural formalities on the Senate floor.

    Mostly-unanimous consent only requires a vote.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  410. DeSantis says he’ll consider pardoning Jan. 6 defendants, including Trump

    Trump without Trump™

    Why should I vote for a phony Trump?

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  411. A plate of potage DeSantis is. What’s left at the bottom of the bottom of the pot when all servings of Trump have been dished out.

    nk (5aba7a)

  412. Unexpectedly to him, over an initially obscure matter, I think DeSantis cynicism is going to break through to the greater public. Something will go viral.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  413. 409. The polls show that 60% support tying a debt limit increase to spending caps, but who benefits from trouble will depend on who people feel was more wrong.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  414. 410 Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 5/25/2023 @ 1:33 pm quoting someone

    the deal should be more about saving the country from reckless spending than getting an agreement. ……..

    That is not on the table.

    If you wanted something like that a change in budget procedure without anything much right now would be the way to go.

    It has to allow for midcourse corrections.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  415. Interesting sentence fragment in a NYT anti-all Republican candidates op ed piece today

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/24/opinion/desantis-republicans.html

    Scott’s policy positions…straddle the Republican MAGA wing and the party’s limping Jack Kemp wing…

    There’s quite a lot about him and Jack Kemp supporters

    https://www.scott.senate.gov/media-center/press-releases/senator-scott-receives-2017-jack-kemp-foundation-leadership-award

    NYT discussion about Tim Scott:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/23/opinion/tim-scott-scorecard.html

    In the WSJ, Karl Rove seems to support Tim Scott.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  416. Appalled (f51ece) — 5/25/2023 @ 6:53 am

    My guess — DeSantis is aiming for Musk’s bankroll, and was, at a minimum, trying to deny it to Trump.

    He can’t get money that he controls. and he;’s got enough money.

    I think DeSantis is aiming for the anti-woke vote (and money too yes)

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  417. That is not on the table.

    If you wanted something like that a change in budget procedure without anything much right now would be the way to go.

    It has to allow for midcourse corrections.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 5/25/2023 @ 3:55 pm

    Tell that to Chip Roy.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  418. 409. The polls show that 60% support tying a debt limit increase to spending caps, but who benefits from trouble will depend on who people feel was more wrong.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 5/25/2023 @ 3:52 pm

    One poll doesn’t make a trend.

    Slim majority wants debt ceiling raised without spending cuts, poll finds

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  419. Name a centrist 3rd party in any nation that has done well.

    The two major parties are as far apart as they could be. Much further apart that they were in 1992, when Ross Perot was polling ahead of Bush and Clinton, at least until he melted down. But even in the aftermath of a meltdown, with the majors not that far apart, he got 19% of the vote and his signature issue — balancing the budget — happened shortly thereafter.

    The new people he brought into the process — mainly fiscal conservatives — were still around when the 1994 midterms send Democrat packing.

    A centrist ticket, perhaps with a nominal Republican and a nominal Democrat, would have a lot of interest in a Trump-Biden rematch. A great time for an FU to both parties.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  420. Picture a 2024 ballot:

    Biden-Harris
    Trump-(who cares?)
    Ryan-Manchin

    It’s not obvious to me who would win.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  421. Different poll results … Look to the question wording.

    As always.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  422. @423 Biden wins democratic voters don’t like any of those three. Texas house has votes to impeach ag ken paxton for moral degeneracy and graft.

    asset (d2408e)

  423. I think Ryan-Manchin would take a lot more from Trump than Biden. Most Dems wouldn’t see a great pull there. I would guess Biden wins. Now, if the option was Hogan-Manchin or Hogan-Cooper, I think those tickets pull more from Biden but some from Trump. That one would be closer. Don’t get me wrong, I would love Ryan to be on a national ticket again. I’m just not sure that the social moderates would trust him.

    AJ_Liberty (6c7305)

  424. Ty Warner took his Beanie Baby money and turned it into a $4.5B real estate heavy empire. I find the Ty Warner properties to be tastefully done. My complaint about Trump properties would be that he brands everything with a fake gold TRUMP and that kind of tacky is hard to overcome. It is the “everything that glitters here is definitely not gold” look. Trump vodka would be plastic 2 liter bottle headache in a solo cup vodka rebranded and rebottled. I do think Trump has an eye for good golf properties, but his bad design tastes diminish rather than enhance

    steveg (8c0aff)

  425. Biden wins democratic voters don’t like any of those three.

    asset, you are so far into the fringe of the fringe Left that you think AOC is a right winger. Given that, you have no idea how the 99.98% to your right vote.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  426. Most Dems wouldn’t see a great pull there.

    Dems I know would consider him. Abortion at that level is no longer in play — it’s move to statehouses and perhaps Congress. Since anything Congress would pass is unlikely to be draconian (or last long if it was), social moderates (whatever they are now) would not recoil from someone who’s main goal is to fix entitlements.

    MAYBE Hogan-Manchin, but Cooper? No. Anti-gun, anti-voucher, pro-late-term abortion. Too solidly a Democrat.

    Kevin M (213cd6)

  427. “No. Anti-gun, anti-voucher, pro-late-term abortion.”

    Still, Cooper won in Red North Carolina while the state went twice for Trump (and for Romney and Bush) and has a Republican supermajority in the state legislature. What that suggests to me is that he doesn’t push measures that don’t have broad appeal and he demonstrated quiet competence during Covid while other Democrats like Cuomo turned it into drama fests. He is 16-0 in primaries and general elections in a Republican state. That’s difficult to ignore or discount the cross appeal.

    My suspicion too is that, despite his recent veto of moving abortion bans to 12weeks, he’s not a zealot and looks for compromise because that’s his only way to achieve some of his own wins. I see he vetoed a bill that was going to get rid of Sheriff background checks for buying a handgun. Most people are fine with reasonable gun regulations especially aimed at keeping guns from domestic abusers etc.

    It’s amusing that you view Cooper as a solid Democrat but don’t apparently view Ryan as a solid Republican. How does that work?

    AJ_Liberty (6c7305)

  428. JVW (a35eae) — 5/19/2023 @ 1:33 pm

    DeSantis would have been so much better served had he left his dust-up with Disney to simmer once he delivered that wonderful broadside against their mislabeling of the parental rights bill and then added his bon mot about how disgustingly obsequious to China they are. He had won the argument at that point; the rest of it was just gratuitous.

    It didn’t get enough attention for him. He wanted everyone to know how he was opposed to Disney and he wanted people against wokeness to know he much he was fighting them. He wanted headlines and attention. Short two or three word descriptions of what he was doing.

    And maybe he wanted to intimidate corporations from supporting boycotts of states and the like.

    Sammy Finkelnan (c005bf)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.2590 secs.