Patterico's Pontifications

4/12/2023

It’s a Go: Sen. Tim Scott Launches 2024 Presidential Exploratory Committee

Filed under: General — Dana @ 11:19 am



[guest post by Dana]

Another Republican looks to enter the race:

Republican South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has taken a significant step toward a presidential bid, launching an exploratory committee.

Scott, the only Black Republican currently in the U.S. Senate, launched his committee Wednesday (April 12), which he noted in a video is the day marking the beginning of the Civil War at Fort Sumter in South Carolina.

His launch comes before planned travel this week to Iowa, New Hampshire and back home to South Carolina as he continues his “Faith in America” tour.

Scott’s video is also titled “Faith in America.” “I bear witness that America can do for anyone what she has done for me,” he says in it.

He adds: “I will never back down in defense of the conservative values that make America exceptional.”

While Scott has a powerful backstory worthy of the admiration of all Americans, is well respected by his colleagues, and has taken extraordinary heat from the left for being a Black Republican, it’s difficult to see how he will be able to gain a foothold in the race, to any meaningful degree. At this point, that seems to be true of any Republicans running against Trump (whether announced officially or not). But it’s early days, and there’s still hope that someone will be able to capture and coalesce the minds and votes of conservatives, NeverTrump, and Independents, as well as perhaps peel off some of the newly-wary/weary Trump supporters (if DeSantis doesn’t end up officially running…). Of course, everything could change if Trump is convicted of a crime, but not necessarily the way one might hope…

However, if we look at recent polling, Scott is lagging even in his home state of South Carolina. Note that Trump posted this polling result right after Scott’s announcement of an exploratory committee…:

Support for former President Donald Trump’s run for president is high among South Carolina Republican registered voters according to a Winthrop Poll released today. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are neck-in-neck for second place. US Senator for South Carolina Tim Scott trails behind.

Approval ratings among general population: President Joe Biden with 34% approval, 54% disapproval. SC Governor Henry McMaster with 45% approval, 35% disapproval. US Senator Lindsey Graham with 33% approval, 47% disapproval. US Senator Tim Scott with 47% approval, 25% disapproval.

Additionally, Real Clear Politics show Trump dominating (through April 6), with a trailing Scott leading only Youngkin and Sununu.

While some poo-poo early primary polling, especially when so few candidates have made an official announcement, an analysis of primary polls suggests that they can be more indicative of who might become the nominee than what you’d guess:

Some people will say that national primary polls aren’t important because there is no national primary (just a series of state-by-state contests). Others will tell you it’s too early — more than nine months away from the Iowa caucuses — to put much stock in polls. But we think there’s value in a national polling average, even (especially?) this early: According to our research, national primary polls conducted the year before the election are reasonably predictive of the eventual nominee.

Specifically, when candidates are polling above about 30 percent nationally, they have historically had a decent chance of becoming the nominee. That chance increases the higher their polling numbers are. On the flip side, though, candidates with polling below around 20 percent have been pretty unlikely to win, and those polling below 10 percent are usually doomed.

Of course, every Republican candidate will have to figure out the best way to deal with the elephant in the room who Just Won’t Go Away but continues to lead in all the polls. How Scott plans to do that remains to be seen. But for now, this:

After his announcement, Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison lambasted a presidential run by Scott, focusing on his support for Trump’s presidency and opposition to abortion.

“I’m glad they are afraid of me,” the South Carolina senator responded.

When pressed on what his strategy to beat Trump in the race would be, Scott reiterated his upbringing and the challenges he has overcome — not mentioning the former president. He was then asked if his tactic would be to tell his personal story, in hopes that voters would resonate.

“What I’m saying in response to your question is that the field of play is focusing on President Biden’s failures,” he said, again without mentioning Trump by name.

Clearly, Scott (and every other wanna-be) will eventually have to – at the very least – name him. Because if you can’t even name the corrupt grifting elephant in the room, then what are you doing running for the most powerful position in the land?

Here is Scott’s Faith in America video:

–Dana

114 Responses to “It’s a Go: Sen. Tim Scott Launches 2024 Presidential Exploratory Committee”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (1225fc)

  2. Absolutely fracking great video. THIS is how Ronald Reagan sounded.

    Donated. Sorry Nikki.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  3. However, if we look at recent polling, Scott is lagging even in his home state of South Carolina.

    Non-candidates poll worse than candidates.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  4. I note that Trump’s approval rating is underwater in SC, with 43% having a positive view of him and 48% having a negative one. I bet he didn’t post that part. Tim Scott is 49%/25%. He probably didn’t post that either.

    We will see how Trump’s support lasts as people get to have him spend more time in their living rooms again.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  5. The medias reaction tells me that GOP debate participants will again be forced to answer questions of concern to Democrats, rather those of concern to Republicans. This is, in part, because reporters are center-Left at best.

    This has to change. A panel of Gingrich, Romney and W would be far better than what the networks impose, although ego might interfere.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  6. Mr. Scott is ABT*, so he has my attention. Just don’t overload the field, folks.

    * Anyone But Trump.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  7. Same old, same old, same old Royalist crap.

    Another case of DeSantinitus. Grow a pair and declare- or not.

    As Nixon said to Ike, “Sh!t or get off the pot.”

    DCSCA (1495f8)

  8. Polls this early would have us with nominees like Gary Hart, Rudy Giuliani, Mo Udall, Jerry Brown, Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton (2008), or Scott Walker, Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio (all neck and neck). Mitt Romney was the leader at the beginning of 2015, but he decided not to run.

    People who have been leading in the polls discovered that early primary voters were no the ones polled. Witness Jeb!, or even Trump early on.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  9. Absolutely fracking great video. THIS is how Ronald Reagan sounded.

    ROFLMAOPIP. Except it isn’t.

    And Reagan didn’t need to do it to music:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwJY8KuMFs8&t=81s

    DCSCA (1495f8)

  10. Who will vote for him? Black republicans not that many. Latinx republican no. White reublicans they have better choices. Running for veep.

    asset (059078)

  11. @2

    Absolutely fracking great video. THIS is how Ronald Reagan sounded.

    Donated. Sorry Nikki.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/12/2023 @ 11:46 am

    Right?

    Where was this dude nationally?

    whembly (d116f3)

  12. I’m another vote for Tim Scott. Let’s see how it shakes out.

    felipe (77b190)

  13. Running for veep.

    At best, yep. Or name recognition for 2028 relevance and media buzz. But announcing you’re going to ‘explore the idea of deciding to decide’ is Indecision Politics 101.

    DCSCA (1495f8)

  14. Running for VP.

    NJRob (c8cbe6)

  15. Asset,

    There’s no such thing as a latinx Republicans. There are many Republicans that have latino ancestry.

    Stop trying to make illiteracy happen.

    NJRob (c8cbe6)

  16. I made the mistake of looking at this comments thread.

    Thanks to people who comment in good faith.

    TS is a good person and could be a strong candidate

    The troll drumbeat is strong on this thread, in other news. Sheesh.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  17. Tim Scott’s a good candidate. I prefer someone with Executive experience, but beggars can’t be choosers.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  18. I thought of this again, looking around:

    “The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.”

    There are several candidates rising who have conviction, while some folks support someone who likely will be convicted.

    Why not something better?

    But by all means call people names, get snarky, and try to score points off one another. Which takes us back to WBY.

    Thanks to many of the folks in this thread who are willing to have hope, and rise above the sewer that has become the political norm. Too many caper in the sewage, calling it normal.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  19. Where was this dude nationally?

    Not at Mar-a-lago. But really, do you choose your candidate based on what other people think (at least 90% of whom are stupider than you)? I might donate to Nikki again, and I will certainly donate to Cheney if she runs — it’s important to have a “FU Trump and your little hands, too” robot on stage. I hope that the not-Trump field will narrow down to one after the first primaries (and I don’t see DeSantis being that, considering where he’s just welded his lips).

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  20. Too many caper in the sewage, calling it normal.

    A nation on crack and fentanyl disparaging haute cuisine.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  21. I prefer someone with Executive experience, but beggars can’t be choosers.

    JFK, LBJ, Nixon, GHWB, and Obama had none (VP does not count), and are were lightyears above Trump. Biden, too, is better, somewhat.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  22. Stop trying to make illiteracy happen.

    Stop trying to make Newspeak happen.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  23. Reposted from another Thread:

    (Tim Scott’s) a real threat to Trump.

    LOL! Winthrop University South Carolina Poll:

    ……..
    Support for Trump’s run for president is high among South Carolina Republicans who are registered to vote. Among nine Republicans who have either announced a 2024 presidential run or who are viewed as potential contenders, Trump is on top with 41%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Haley are neck-and-neck with 20% and 18% respectively.
    ……..

    Former President Donald Trump 41%

    Florida Governor Ron DeSantis 20

    Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley 18

    Former Vice President Mike Pence 5

    South Carolina Senator Tim Scott 7

    New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu 1

    Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson 0

    Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo 2

    Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin —

    Trump has a 74% approval among Republicans (including leaners). Pretty poor showing for a former governor (with a 73% approval rating among Republicans and leaners) and current US Senator (at 69%) in the same poll.

    Tim Scott is no threat, less so than Darling Nikki.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  24. Tim Scott may be a great human being, but he will never be President before 2028. Wishcasting is not a strategy.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  25. Black republicans not that many.

    More now. And many black men do not appreciate the way white Democrats talk about Black Republicans; it’s a 150yo playbook.

    Latinx republican no

    No such thing as Latinx. BUt if you are referring to Hispanic Republicans, then there are more of them too.

    Voters of color did move to the right — just not at the rates predicted

    White republicans they have better choices.

    They have Trump, DeSantis or Haley. Which two of those do you consider better choices and why? You really have no more clue about GOP issues than I have about LBGTQ+ politics.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  26. Another Republican looks to enter the race:

    Another Republican helps elect Donald Trump.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  27. Maybe Latinx means “transgender Hispanics”, in which case who cares? There are what, 30 of them?

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  28. Another Republican helps elect Donald Trump.

    OK, Rip, who’s your guy? I’m going to bet that you’ll vote for Trump if he’s the nominee, even from jail. Many Republicans won’t this time.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  29. Wishcasting is not a strategy.

    You are a nattering nabob of negativism, Rip. Voting is wishcasting, nothing more.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  30. Rip, you dislike many candidates. Whom do you like?

    norcal (15fce4)

  31. This guy had this exploratory piece in the can for release today and the first GOP debate is in 120 days. And Trump is 30 points ahead of the other ‘undeclared’ candidate.

    He’s chasing the VP spot. At least Nikki had the decisive balls to declare. Scott and DeSantis don’t.

    DCSCA (b05158)

  32. OK, Rip, who’s your guy? I’m going to bet that you’ll vote for Trump if he’s the nominee, even from jail. Many Republicans won’t this time.

    By the time the Republican Presidential Primary Clown Car arrives in California (about a year from now), there will be only two candidates, certainly Trump and probably DeSantis. I intend to vote for neither of them. If forced, I would vote for Asa Hutchinson, the only one so far who hasn’t twisted himself into a moral pretzel to defend Trump. Even you have said that DeSantis shouldn’t run (something I have never understood-he should strike while the iron is hot.) I haven’t voted for a presidential candidate in the general for several years; it makes no sense to do so when you live in California.

    I am being realistic-I don’t see any of the existing or future candidates of having a chance of challenging Trump or DeSantis. If you think Tim Scott (or Darling Nikki, or [fill in the blank]) is a threat to Trump, explain why you think so. There is no empirical evidence (so far) of any candidate being able to make it a three-way race.

    With every indictment, Trump will grow stronger. Trump will run (and probably win the nomination) even if he is indicted for “the perfect phone call” to Georgia or for obstruction justice over possessing classified information (I don’t see him being indicted for violating the Espionage Act) or his role on January 6th (he won’t be indicted for “incitement,” it’s too hard to prove under current Supreme Court rulings).

    The trials for any of the cases will be occurring during the campaign, and he and his supporters (as well as the larger Republican electorate) will grow tighter and tighter together. As we have seen with recent polls after the NY indictment, Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans is now 79% after his indictment. And 73% of GOP voters say the MAGA movement has been good for the party. Just 20% say it has been bad.

    So keep hoping or wishing. Outside of being struck by lightening, Trump isn’t going away.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  33. I prefer someone with Executive experience, but beggars can’t be choosers.

    Populism has burst that bubble…

    JFK, LBJ, Nixon, GHWB, and Obama had none (VP does not count), and are were lightyears above Trump. Biden, too, is better, somewhat.

    Biden better, somewhat?????? Step away from the bong. The rest, non-populist, Establishment Royalist 20th century leftovers.

    My thesis data from ’77 suggested the trend projected one of these major parties was destined to nominate a candidate for POTUS with no previous elected political office experience but heavy on private sector business experience by 2000. Turns out it was 2016 so it was close. One of these wannabes- declared or undeclared- are your VP candidate w/t one term limited Trump for the 2024 GOP ticket. Pick one for a 2028 POTUS run– or get stuck w/a dying Biden and a certain VP to replace him – Kamala or a player to be named later.

    DCSCA (b05158)

  34. Rip, you dislike many candidates. Whom do you like?

    norcal (15fce4) — 4/12/2023 @ 2:15 pm

    Any politician I like has the sense not to run.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  35. 4 out of 5 pollsters surveyed recommend polls for the answers to questions nobody asked. The 5th recommends Scotch.

    nk (04e216)

  36. Good News for Trump.
    (not an advocate for him, just pointing out the dilution of the ABT vote)

    Joe (4cc3c9)

  37. I don’t know that Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, and even Chris Christie are looking to be President right now as much as they are working to show Republicans that they don’t need to swim in the Trump swamp. It might even catch on.

    nk (04e216)

  38. Darling Nikki is a swimmer. She has retreated from her previous Trump positions she has no idea what direction she is headed.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  39. I don’t know that Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Asa Hutchinson, and even Chris Christie are looking to be President right now as much as they are working to show Republicans that they don’t need to swim in the Trump swamp.

    What is the point of running if not to win? With a pool of ten candidates to choose from, Trump can win with a minority of the vote (see 2016).

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  40. So why Scott over Haley? Why Scott? What has he done in the Senate?

    Haley has some accomplishments, including avoiding being too corrupted by Trumpism. What’s Scott have?

    These are honest questions. Any thoughts?

    Appalled (79e130)

  41. It’s never too early to break out the mops and Lysol. Trump ekes out the nomination, he gets his head handed to him in the general, the GOP is competitive again in 2028, and except for Asa the cleaning crew can run again. Not everything is next-day delivery.

    nk (04e216)

  42. What has (Tim Scott) done in the Senate?

    Not much, even though he has been there for 10 years (after being appointed by Darling Nikki in 2013). Thirteen bills he has introduced have become law, mostly related to health care or financial issues. He is considered the lead Senate Republican negotiator on police reform legislation, which always goes nowhere (and shouldn’t be a federal issue anyway). Scott is considered an attractive candidate because of his “inspirational” personal story, which to me is a pretty thin thread to run on. But Obama did the same thing and won. Scott should wait and run in 2028 after the Trump fever burns itself out (maybe).

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  43. So, I subscribed to the Dispatch. See how that works out.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  44. Thirteen bills he has introduced have become law, mostly related to health care or financial issues.

    What a dweeb, working on things that matter! He should have been grandstanding like a real Senator.

    He is considered the lead Senate Republican negotiator on police reform legislation, which always goes nowhere (and shouldn’t be a federal issue anyway).

    A significant accomplishment. It takes talent to tie a committee in knots.

    Scott is considered an attractive candidate because of his “inspirational” personal story, which to me is a pretty thin thread to run on

    If you are running on opportunity and the American Dream, why not someone who has lived it rather than someone who was born to wealth and power — someone more inclined to dislike status climbers.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  45. Don’t assume this is Donald Trump’s last run

    IF he gets the nomination and loses again, he’ll have two stolen elections in the bag and want the hat trick.

    But really, isn’t he disqualified this time? He assets he has been elected twice, and that;s the constitutional test.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  46. This is a decent statement but a Republican about Trumps effort to steal the presidency.

    I could see voting for Tim Scott.

    I don’t mind his unwillingness to criticize Trump at this point. It would only hurt him politically.

    Time123 (c138ef)

  47. So why Scott over Haley? Why Scott?

    Number one, Scott has the fire in the belly and Haley is hiding it, if she has it. Nikki’s campaign has been on Sominex. Much as I like her on paper, she loses the interview.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  48. Number one, Scott has the fire in the belly…….

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/12/2023 @ 4:15 pm

    LOL! After one day……Let’s see what Scott looks like when he breaks 10% in his home state.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  49. ‘Scott has the fire in the belly…’

    Pfft. A person w/”fire in the belly” doesn’t produce a canned video prepped for release on a pre-determined date announcing they’re ‘exploring’ a possible run w/a canned video.

    A fire in the belly person grows a pair and declares they’re in or out. The guy wants his name in the media buzz, do the Sunday shows and assorted pundit platforms w/t other hesitant wannabes as a possible VP w/Trump. Haley has the guts to declare. DeSantis, Scott, Pompeo and other assorted weenies, not so much.

    DCSCA (856aee)

  50. Just the two folks who I expected to respond. Sigh. Simon is right.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  51. Number one, Scott has the fire in the belly…….

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/12/2023 @ 4:15 pm

    Like your previous assertion that Scott “represents a real threat to Trump”, this assumes facts not in evidence.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  52. Just the two folks who I expected to respond. Sigh. Simon is right.

    Sorry to burst your Tim Scott fantasy bubble, but there is no way he will win any Republican primary, let alone the nomination.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  53. Just the two folks who I expected to respond. Sigh. Simon is right.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/12/2023 @ 4:36 pm

    One is not like the other.

    norcal (15fce4)

  54. Maybe not so OT. People are getting sick of orange Kool-Aid:

    GOP-controlled Arizona House votes to expel Republican representative

    Harris is a well-known conspiracy theorist and election denier in Arizona. She was a constant figure during the GOP-led review of Maricopa County’s 2020 ballots. Election experts condemned the review calling it an attempt to overturn the state’s election results.

    nk (04e216)

  55. From Wikipedia:

    Bat guano composition varies between species with different diets. Insectivorous bats are the only species that congregate in large enough numbers to produce sufficient guano for sustainable harvesting.

    nk (04e216)

  56. One is not like the other.

    Both are trolling. DCSCA is a bit more honest about it, in his own way.

    Ones says Pfft to start his contradictions, the other doesn’t, but both are reminiscent of the Argument Clinic.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  57. GOP-controlled Arizona House votes to expel Republican representative

    It should be noted that the AZ house was only 31-29 Republican, now it’s a one vote margin for control. Oddly, this principled stand does not come across in the CNN story. I bet it will get no play in all the “oooo the TN legislature” stories.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  58. Pfft. A person w/”fire in the belly” doesn’t produce a canned video prepped for release on a pre-determined date announcing they’re ‘exploring’ a possible run w/a canned video.

    No, they just run ads about Alaska and say “You betcha” a lot.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  59. @59. ROFLMAOPIP. Declaring maybe w/indecision w/a canned video isn’t Reaganesque, Kevin. You should scroll up and watch his declaration– it’s long; 24 minutes- no mood music- no Fort Sumter, no Statue of Liberty backdrop… and a little dry for these times. But unlike the tentative, indecisive DeSantis and now Scott, Reagan’s was boldly, definitively and absolutely declarative.

    DCSCA (e367f9)

  60. @43. Not much, even though he has been there for 10 years (after being appointed by Darling Nikki in 2013).

    It’s what to ‘explore’ when considering a VP selection for a GOP ticket– especially w/a one term limited Trump the likely nominee.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnCajZth-24&t=1s

    “Where’s the beef?” – Clara Pell, Wendy’s, 1984

    DCSCA (e367f9)

  61. Ones says Pfft to start his contradictions, the other doesn’t, but both are reminiscent of the Argument Clinic.

    My arguments are based on the current polling numbers of Trump’s popularity in SC and Darling Nikki and Tim Scott lack of popularity in their home state.

    What is your argument based on?

    Rip Murdock (389ba0)

  62. @64. Didn’t you catch it? “Absolutely fracking great video. THIS is how Ronald Reagan sounded.”

    Not.

    DCSCA (e367f9)

  63. What is your argument based on?

    Who I like and why. Put something of yourself into things. I can read the MSM newspapers for what you contribute.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  64. Who I like and why. Put something of yourself into things. I can read the MSM newspapers for what you contribute.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/12/2023 @ 7:01 pm

    As I have also done above. But I don’t understand why you think DeSantis shouldn’t run and Tim Scott is now (after Darling Nikki) the best choice.

    Rip Murdock (389ba0)

  65. Should Trump win the nomination by the same margins as in 2016, it will show how irredeemably foolish a large contingent of voters are.

    If people can’t see how dangerous election denialism and J6 were, they have lost touch with reality.

    norcal (15fce4)

  66. Certainly not Reagan fan, but hell, this is an absolutely superb presentation by one man with little fanfare– and the way a fella w/a ‘fire in the belly’ declares:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwJY8KuMFs8&t=81s

    And to his credit, it still resonates nearly 44 years later.

    DCSCA (e367f9)

  67. I think it will be beneficial to the GOP primary to have a variety of voices, each making their case and describing their own vision. The GOP used to be a party of ideas. Trump is the antithesis of that. His ideas are usually a pretty shallow list of grievances mined from Talk Radio and always revolve somehow around himself. It’s curious as to why it’s mesmerizing for some.

    He’s just not a leader. He’s a quasi-entertainer and a provocateur. DeSantis is smarter but just doesn’t seem that likable and hasn’t been tested on the big stage. I think Haley, Scott, and Hutchinson can help make the GOP appear more normal, though each is a long shot at this point.

    Those remaining Trump voters have to be slowly shown something different. This is certainly personal for them and they are invested. You can’t shovel manure for 7+ years and easily walk away from it. Haley and Scott understand this. The art of persuasion is a dying art. Too many just want drama. Scott and Hutchinson will remind us that the GOP was not too long ago the gentleman party.

    AJ_Liberty (4f01fb)

  68. the usual thread where commenters who won’t vote for any republican nominee banter about who the nominee should be

    the death knell for any republican candidate among this crowd is when they actually say or do something of substance

    how many here were for DeSantis before they were against him. It’ll be the same with every other candidate

    keep looking for that nominee who won’t say anything bad about democrats

    JF (83320b)

  69. Someone keeps typing patterico.com and is frustrated that it’s not taking him to Redstate.com. Funny that.

    AJ_Liberty (4f01fb)

  70. JF,

    DeSantis is a successful Republican who actually stands up for conservative values. Social leftists don’t like that.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  71. Remember that the first primary is NINE months away. A lot can happen in that time, and to Trump mostly bad things. I am always expecting a real financial fraud case to hit — something like a defaulted loan where the collateral was fictitious, or a tax case where the value of assets being depreciated was laughably inflated.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  72. the usual thread where commenters who won’t vote for any republican nominee banter about who the nominee should be

    Most of us will vote for almost any nominee, but not for a traitorous adulterer who cheats people every day. Anyone who supports him is a fool. He fights! But so does a bear in a pit, and to much the same effect.

    But any other Republican? It could hardly be worse.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  73. I will vote for DeSantis in the general if he gets there, even though I think his focus on social issues is a poor representation of conservative thought. Maybe he will restrict himself to undoing the devil’s work, but once you start down the road of moral correctness, you risk your own devil’s work.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  74. Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/12/2023 @ 8:22 pm

    my guess is that there’s a much greater chance something more catastrophic will happen on the democrat side, but it will be cuz accounting rules are super complicated so nobody should expect anyone to follow them, and anyway you can’t find a DA who will prosecute cuz Rule of Law or something

    JF (83320b)

  75. I hope that the Supreme Court comes to recognize “Secular Humanism” as the godless religion it is, and bans its teachings from public schools. That this might destroy the public schools as we know them would be a bonus.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  76. I see that AJ found me over at that other place.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  77. The Dispatch is the AA farm team for The NY Times

    JF (83320b)

  78. The Dispatch is the AA farm team for The NY Times

    If you cannot tell the difference, the sky in your world is Red and the Man in the Moon is Trump.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  79. Why Walmart is closing half its stores in Chicago

    Elections have consequences

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  80. @ Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/12/2023 @ 8:26 pm

    As someone who voted in the past for Dole, Romney, Bush, McCain..
    I am not sure they would “fight”.
    Of course you could also argue passion vs. effectiveness.

    I hope all of you have an awesome day.

    Joe (4cc3c9)

  81. So, I subscribed to the Dispatch. See how that works out.

    Welcome to the AA club. Good place to be.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  82. “So, I subscribed to the Dispatch. See how that works out.”

    Bit different dynamic. I kind of like the nested comments and the edit function. There may not be quite as much back and forth, but since people are paying, there are also fewer trolls and less feeding of the trolls. I’m still hopeful that there might be some cross pollination from Dispatch to here because of Patterico commenting and submitting articles. People do remember him from RedState and appreciate his clear writing style, sort of like AllahNick. There is a fair collection of Democrat commenters at Dispatch (some alumni from RedState and Volokh), so the opinions do cross the spectrum. But that’s good, especially if ideas are presented smartly and respectfully. There’s less energy spent on no-true-Scotsman tribalism.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  83. He fights! But so does a bear in a pit, and to much the same effect.

    He sure gave “Coco Chow” a whuppin’. Rosie O’Donnell, too.

    He chatters. Like a squirrel from atop a tree.

    Basically, von Haggis is a nasty woman.

    nk (04e216)

  84. “As someone who voted in the past for Dole, Romney, Bush, McCain..
    I am not sure they would “fight”.”

    Politics is about persuasion and knowing when you have the votes and when you don’t. The question becomes, fight for what? We saw a lot of performance about Obamacare but little in the way of moving policy forward…and actually improving how we deliver health insurance and broaden the market. We also see it with the border. There should be broader reforms that the GOP secures rather than trying to desperately hang onto the Executive Branch with candidates spewing invective. The GOP is less effective than the DEMs in securing incremental progress in their policy goals. I certainly want smart leaders who push a smart agenda with smart tactics. We have a very divided country. We must live together and understand how to govern effectively. Simply trying to own the libs is not a party philosophy that grows the tent or wins on policy.

    Both sides are trapped in bubble thinking and bad faith argumentation. Some here weirdly hate David French because he pauses to listen to the other side and tries to find common ground. French is no liberal. He just doesn’t subscribe to the “libs are all evil” mantra (you can be wrong and not evil, and you can be wrong and still have valid points/concerns). The nature of GOP politics has changed. We’ve moved away from being deficit hawks and now have a considerable number who question the best approach to opposing global authoritarians. We are also moving away from smaller government and instead want government to deliver wins in the culture war. Simultaneously, we see a significant weakening of parties in general, as the internet and social media has rebalanced power. I don’t like people/movements that look at this as an opportunity to strike out malevolently. We do need smart leaders to stop exploiting our division and get back to finding some consensus. I’ll take that over unfocused, angry, fighters any day.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  85. AJ’s favorite republican is Biden

    JF (f804c0)

  86. AJ, I think you’re missing an important point. Many Trump supporters felt as if there was no one in the national stage demanding respect for them and responding to things they felt were disrespectful in kind.

    Trump did that. When they say “Trump fights” they don’t entirely mean “he fights for policy goals we value” they also mean “he rhetorically fights the ppl we detest in a way we find emotionally satisfying and gives voice to the opinions we share. Opinions that people who seem to feel superior to us look down on and dismiss as beyond the pale.”

    A mild mannered leader who quietly balanced the budget and reduced the reach of the federal government by working tirelessly on policy isn’t what they entirely want. That candidate doesn’t check all the boxes.

    Throw in a nihilistic belief that the system is hopelessly corrupt, a willingness to believe conspiracy theories that change honest losses to thefts, and a rage at the culture willing rejecting their preference and you have a MAGA voter who will not just vote Trump/MTG over Romney/Ryan but will also condemn and dispose the Romney / Ryan support.

    Time123 (3be131)

  87. Sorry for the typos. Was typing on my phone

    Time123 (3be131)

  88. Most of us will vote for almost any nominee, but not for a traitorous adulterer who cheats people every day. Anyone who supports him is a fool. …….

    But any other Republican? It could hardly be worse.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/12/2023 @ 8:26 pm

    Yet you accuse me of voting for Trump in the end. That is a calumny.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  89. Scott and Hutchinson will remind us that the GOP was not too long ago the gentleman party.

    Which is why (sadly) neither of them will be the nominee.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  90. Completely correct Time…too many in the GOP want the equivalent of Rush Limbaugh in the White House giving them their daily dose of handing it to the libs. It’s entertainment they want, not the hard work of building consensus and solving problems.

    JF: “AJ’s favorite republican is Biden”

    As if on cue, JF once more makes his no-true-Republican jab. Probably my favorite Republicans include people like Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan, and Ben Sasse, though Liz Cheney is also good on policy and vision for the party as well. I take pride in my votes for George Bush and Mitt Romney, and look back more fondly than at the time on John McCain. He had a more adult view on politics than I had at that time. I don’t much respect Ted Cruz anymore, though we probably agree on most policy. I think Trump is a threat on many levels and one we don’t need to recklessly endure. Biden will not get my vote as, like Paul M, he gets disqualified based on policy…and because he’s not especially sharp these days. I don’t like that too many Republicans did not expunge Trump after J6 and have continued to make excuses, but I understand why in part. I can vote for Scott or Haley even though they’ve not mounted attacks on Trump. DeSantis might earn my vote, but I need to seem more from him, Haley, and Scott on the campaign trail. DeSantis thus far tends to act a bit too much like Trump, playing to his base. That tends to make him less attractive than an alternative Republican, but I understand his appeal. I hope this clarifies my views…once again.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  91. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 4/13/2023 @ 8:51 am

    Or make it through the entire primary season.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  92. A mild mannered leader who quietly balanced the budget and reduced the reach of the federal government by working tirelessly on policy isn’t what they entirely want. That candidate doesn’t check all the boxes.

    Especially if said leader had no problem with the continued hollowing out of the middle class that Clinton, Obama and both Bushes tolerated.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  93. Yet you accuse me of voting for Trump in the end. That is a calumny.

    Did I? If so, I apologize. It IS a calumny.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  94. Scott and Hutchinson will remind us that the GOP was not too long ago the gentleman party.

    They are more correct than those who call it a “conservative” party. It’s right of center, sure, but there’s a big distance between that and, say, Pat Buchanan.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  95. OT- Pentagon classified doc leaker discovered; MA National Guardsman; gamer- arrest imminent.

    How goes the leaker hunt over at SCOTUS? =crickets=

    DCSCA (4c559e)

  96. Did I? If so, I apologize. It IS a calumny.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/13/2023 @ 10:15 am

    OK, Rip, who’s your guy? I’m going to bet that you’ll vote for Trump if he’s the nominee, even from jail. Many Republicans won’t this time.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/12/2023 @ 1:57 pm

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  97. And I wouldn’t vote for Trump from jail.

    😉

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  98. …the GOP was not too long ago the gentleman party.

    =eyeroll= Yeah, in the age of rotary phones and ‘Leave It To Beaver.’ That sort of chatter and mindset voiced by any “Republican” should go over really, really well w/t ladies of the 21st century who pilot planes, command space stations, operate as surgeons, doctors, lawyers, legislators, CEOs, CFOs, etc., etc., etc. =sarc=

    DCSCA (4c559e)

  99. So, who WILL you vote for? Or has the right candidate not come along. Don’t look at the polls, look at your heart. It’s better to waste your vote on something you believe, than to use it effectively on something you don’t.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  100. Kevin M —

    Why does Rip have to know who to vote for? I sure don’t, with exception that it will not be Trump.

    Appalled (721968)

  101. So, who WILL you vote for? Or has the right candidate not come along. Don’t look at the polls, look at your heart. It’s better to waste your vote on something you believe, than to use it effectively on something you don’t.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 4/13/2023 @ 10:38 am

    I previously responded to you here.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  102. “…John McCain. He had a more adult view on politics than I had at that time.”

    Adult?

    McCain: “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran…”

    DCSCA (4c559e)

  103. ……Or has the right candidate not come along……

    The politicians that I like have the good sense not to run.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  104. @103. Then you’re not a party Republican. Litmus testing everyone is a fool’s errand. Don’t agree w/all of Haley’s positions but still believe her time is approaching, though global circumstances may sidetrack her for the top spot. If she doesn’t get the nom and one term limited Trump does or she’s his VP, swell. If not, next cycle. Multiple contenders are young. But you back your party’s nominee to win. Nobody really liked Nixon either, but the party backed him for the win. Otherwise, you’ll be stuck w/a dying Biden and looming Kamala or a VEEP replacement to be named later.

    DCSCA (4c559e)

  105. #103 — I never said I was a party Republican. I was a RINO before Trump, FFS. I would prefer to vote Republican because I prefer a smaller government, leave us alone, stay out of my life tendency. But there are times when I think it is wrong to cast a vote that way. The current populists are not small government people — they just want a different group of people to pick on. That has no attraction for me. So if it is a true populist vs Biden — I am undecided for now.

    Appalled (721968)

  106. “How goes the leaker hunt over at SCOTUS?”

    A. It’s just not that big of an issue to most people
    B. It’s a tough problem; it may come down to someone confessing or someone revealing a source
    C. It’s not a criminal investigation, it’s an ethics investigation
    D. The institution is likely not eager to kneecap one of its members or a higher up staff; the Court must continue to do business regardless of the leak

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  107. “Then you’re not a party Republican”

    That’s a compliment these days.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  108. @109. It’s endearing to watch government/military loving ‘folks’ make excuses for bureaucratic incompetence.

    @110. To a Democrat.

    DCSCA (fa3479)

  109. McCain: “Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran…”

    Something we should have done a long time ago.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  110. @112. The adults disagree.

    DCSCA (fa3479)

  111. @111, no excuses, just don’t think it’s existential. This isn’t costing us money (except for the extra security at the time) and it’s not preventing the Court from functioning. If the court has suffered reputational damage, it mainly comes from people who disagreed with Dobb’s reasoning, not because it was leaked.

    Trump is unacceptable in my book. Anyone contemplating taking us out of NATO, S. Korea, and Africa is unacceptable. Add in his ethical lapses and embarrassing behavior and he’s simply a non-starter. There are plenty of Republicans that I am eager and willing to support….just not Trump. I simply don’t trust his decision making.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)


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