Patterico's Pontifications


Curious Polling, Donald Trump Arrives In NYC

Filed under: General — Dana @ 1:59 pm

[guest post by Dana]

Donald Trump has now arrived at his Trump Tower residence where he will stay until his arraignment tomorrow. Tapper says that his arrival is being covered by media outlets like it was O.J. in a white Bronco. While I dislike this overused word, the event is without question, “unprecedented”. Trump’s arrival comes after it was reported that the former president is opposed to having cameras in the courtroom. As his attorney explained, “It will create a circus-like atmosphere at the arraignment… (Oh, the irony…) Anyway, the lawyer also pointed out that if there were cameras in the courtroom, it would raise security concerns and that it would “be inconsistent with Donald Trump’s presumption of innocence”. News outlets have petitioned the judge presiding over the arraignment to allow cameras in the courtroom. Judge Juan Merchan is expected to rule on that today.

And since we’re talking about a former U.S. president arriving in New York so that he can appear for arraignment after being indicted by a grand jury, let’s not forget that Donald Trump isn’t just any former president: he is also the current 2024 Republican frontrunner. Last week, we discussed whether an indictment would or wouldn’t hurt his chances in the election, or if it might not have any impact at all. If the polling below is any indicator, he may just benefit from the proceedings. But of course, it’s still early days.

First, a pre-emptive strike: Yes, I know it’s the Trafalgar Group and that they are the conservative polling outfit that botched the prediction of a 2022 “red wave,” as well as having their their methodology questioned. And yet this polling is so curious that I’m inclined to share it. While it’s unsurprising that Trump continues to lead the pack (loyalists have certainly rallied around him post-indictment) and that DeSantis follows, it’s a bit surprising to see that Liz Cheney (?!) is making such a strong showing (and in double digits). What do you think is going on?

Details of the poll:

3 polls conducted–before Trump declared he would be indicted (3/14-19), after Trump declared he would be indicted (3/22-25), and after the actual indictment (3/31-04/02) • 1079, 1082, 1123 Respondents
• Likely GOP Presidential Primary Voters
• Response Rate: 1.4%, 1.4%, 1.5%
• Margin of Error: 2.9%
• Confidence: 95%
• Response Distribution: 50%


61 Responses to “Curious Polling, Donald Trump Arrives In NYC”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (1225fc)

  2. These results are similar to the recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  3. A response rate of 1.4% or 1.5%?

    One out of 66 or one out of 71 people who were attempted to be contacted.

    That is getting really low.

    There’s an art to playing with the numbers, based on answers to other questions, but that is getting really hard.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  4. “What do you think is going on?”
    Most voters are politically “low information” voters.

    What’s been on the news these days? Non-Stop Trump Indictment™ stories.

    So, yes, that poll seems to reflect the general temperature, and even outrage that normie Norm is feeling when consuming these stories. I’d argue, that there’s a non-insignificant number of voters who’ll vote just out of spite.

    As for Cheney getting the 10%: That is bizarre for sure, and the fact that it’s 1,123 LV, I would consider that as noise, unless we see a trend in subsequent polls.

    I’m more interested in what is trending (ie, stitched across multiple polls), than making any determination from a single poll.

    Once DeSantis announces, I’m sure he’ll see a bounce. Then, it’s up to him to see if he can stitch together multiple polls to the numbers he’d need to beat Trump.

    whembly (d116f3)

  5. Once DeSantis announces, I’m sure he’ll see a bounce.

    Don’t bet on it. Preening in the wings, he foolishly ‘punched down’ by responding to an idiot talk show host’s “questionnaire;” went all Ralph Kramden on Ukraine and was outsmarted by a Mickey Mouse outfit in his own state:

    Disney Outmaneuvers DeSantis in Clash Over Theme Park District

    Walt Disney Co. pushed through changes limiting the powers of the municipal authority that governs its Florida theme parks ahead of a controversial takeover by representatives of Governor Ron DeSantis.

    He’s fast becoming another ‘Hamlet on the Hudson’… as Nixon said to Eisenhower: “Sh!t or get off the pot.”

    DCSCA (aab8d3)

  6. Hopefully, they won’t send SWAT in at 4am to haul him off to jail.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  7. I think Erick Erickson had it right. The spike in favor of Trump is more of a solidarity thing or protest vote against Bragg than actual support for the candidate.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  8. “Be with the cool kids!”

    nk (723e8d)

  9. At this point in the cycle I think the pols mostly reflect name recognition. I don’t think “normie norm” is paying much attention to the angle that Trump is being persecuted so much as name recognition.

    I think that angle plays well with his supporters though and that this will help him in fundraising

    Time123 (c138ef)

  10. So, the indictment did two things: Mostly if got Republican primary voters to up their support for Trump, but it also got #neverTrump voters to display a middle finger to Trump supporters.

    Again, DeSantis has played this very badly. If he had announced a few weeks ago, the announcement would not be seen as “disloyal” by the very voters he hopes to attract. Now, it will be. Add to this his many unforced errors and I think that he will choose to sit this one out, unless and until Trump is no longer eligible to serve. (At which point there will be a lot of sudden candidates, like happened in 1968)

    Cheney has no chance, and Pence has very little. Pompeo suffers from lack of name recognition, and the name doesn’t help either. Haley isn’t getting a lot of traction either. It’s early, but she’s not building support with her low-key campaign.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  11. In reading the comments, I still don’t understand why Cheney even makes an appearance in the poll, let alone in the third position. And especially given her lack of popularity in the GOP. Low info voters don’t account for that. It just strikes me a peculiar.

    Dana (1225fc)

  12. There are a lot of #neverTrump voters still participating in GOP primaries. They might also be more likely to answer GOP primary pollsters. Come the general election they don’t vote for Trump, but there are usually several alternatives, including not voting.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  13. I dunno. Is voting against Trump worth the shame of asking for a Republican ballot in the primary? That stays on your permanent record, you know.

    nk (723e8d)

  14. If he had announced a few weeks ago, the announcement would not be seen as “disloyal” by the very voters he hopes to attract…..I think that he will choose to sit this one out……

    LOL! It wouldn’t matter when DeSantis announces, any announcement (by anyone, like Darling Nikki) is seen as being disloyal to Trump by his true believers.

    What explains DeSantis’s highly visible book tour? It’s a just a campaign swing by another name. Why is the Florida legislature poised to repeal (or ignore) the “resign to run” law? To smooth the way for DeSantis. Why is DeSantis planning to visit Israel later this month? (Guess.) Why is the Florida legislature willing to retroactively keep secret DeSantis’s travel records, along with other state officials?

    It’s because in a couple of months he will be formal candidate for President.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  15. Dana, that’s about the same response rate as for US men that think they could win a fight with an elephant. (Or who don’t know what an elephant is). 🙂

    Time123 (c138ef)

  16. Super PAC Backing DeSantis Says It Has Raised $30 Million
    The sums raised for the super PAC, named Never Back Down, show the financial might that would back a DeSantis campaign, should he enter the presidential race, as expected, after the Florida legislative session ends in early May.
    None of the money raised was transferred from another committee, the official said. Mr. DeSantis’s state political committee had more than $82 million as of last month, which could eventually be transferred to another entity supporting him.

    Because Never Back Down is a federal super PAC, it can raise unlimited sums from donors. Over half the money was donated from people outside Florida, the official said.
    ……..Mr. DeSantis is expected to have tens of millions of dollars in commitments of support from donors, according to one Republican fund-raiser familiar with his operation. Money, this Republican said, will not be a problem for Mr. DeSantis.

    As they say, “follow the money,” and there is a lot of money already betting on DeSantis.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  17. Now, don’t get me wrong, I am not suggesting that Trump is Italian, but Al Capone reduced to the mental capacity of a two-year old by tertiary syphilis, was still seen as running the Chicago mob, from Palm Island, Florida, for about eight years after his compassionate release from Alcatraz.

    nk (723e8d)

  18. Morning Consult: Slim Majority of Voters Approve of Trump’s Indictment, Though Few GOP Primary Voters Do

    Former President Donald Trump’s indictment on fraud charges related to his role in an alleged scheme to pay hush money to adult film star Stormy Daniels is popular with the wider electorate, per a Morning Consult survey conducted immediately after the legal action, but there’s broad support for his attacks on the probe among the GOP’s prospective 2024 electorate.

    A slim majority of voters (51%) approve of the Manhattan grand jury’s decision to indict Trump, driven by 83% of Democrats and 49% of independents, according to the Friday survey.

    Another 38% disapprove of the decision, including 7 in 10 potential Republican primary voters, those who said they plan to participate in the 2024 GOP nominating contest in their state.

    While 46% of voters think the grand jury’s decision was primarily informed by evidence that Trump committed a crime, another 43% say the overriding cause for its conclusion was motivation to damage the former president’s political career. The latter sentiment is held by 78% of potential GOP primary voters.


    Two in 3 Republican voters say Trump should run for president, nearly unchanged from a Morning Consult survey conducted in early March.

    Among the overall electorate, 58% say Trump should shut down his campaign, including 60% of independents and 84% of Democrats.


    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  19. MC: Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary: Trump’s Lead Widens After Indictment

    ………Morning Consult surveys are tracking the Republican primary electorate’s views of Trump and other declared or potential candidates, as well as how he fares with the wider electorate — a key metric for a party looking to turn the tide on recent electoral disappointments.

    Trump’s Support Strengthens After Indictment: Former President Donald Trump is backed by 55% of potential Republican primary voters, up 3 percentage points from last Wednesday, the day before news broke that a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict him on fraud charges over his alleged role in paying hush money to adult film star Stormy Daniels. It gives him a 29-percentage-point lead over his closest polling potential rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — marking his second-best advantage since tracking began in December.
    Over half of potential Republican primary voters (55%) would back Trump if the primary or caucus were held in their state today, compared with 26% who would support DeSantis.

    Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is backed by 4% of the party’s electorate, while Ramaswamy has 0% support, showing meager backing for Trump’s declared challengers for the GOP’s nomination.
    DeSantis is the second choice of 47% of potential GOP primary voters who are backing Trump, while 41% of the Florida governor’s supporters view Trump as their top backup option.

    Haley is the second choice of 5% of Trump supporters and 14% of DeSantis supporters. Former Vice President Mike Pence is the second choice of 18% of Trump supporters and 17% of DeSantis backers.
    About half of GOP voters (51%) view Haley favorably, while 21% say the same of Ramaswamy — his highest favorability rating to date.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  20. Cheney is the nevertrumpers, who should poll for Tim Scott, who seems like a good and decent man, but they are too caught up in their narrow world?

    steveg (d930cf)

  21. Tim Scott, who seems like a good and decent man…..

    Which disqualifies him from the current Republican Party. He’s still young enough to run in 2028, when hopefully the Trump fever dream will end.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  22. they are too caught up in their narrow world?

    No, but right at the moment they are using their middle finger towards Trump. If Cheney was not an option, they’d be supporting Scott or Haley.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  23. Is voting against Trump worth the shame of asking for a Republican ballot in the primary?

    In many places you don’t have that option. But declining to vote in the GOP primary is half a vote FOR Trump. Is there some other party where your choice would matter?

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  24. I am not suggesting that Trump is Italian


    Kevin M (1ea396)

  25. If this is a cynical ploy to help Trump win the primary, it just might work. The 2022 election showed how well Trumpies fare in the general election.

    norcal (7b2be1)

  26. @10. Haley isn’t getting a lot of traction either. It’s early, but she’s not building support with her low-key campaign.

    Love her but she needs an image consultant on staff PDQ. Watched her presser at the border and though her messaging is firm and resolute, her on camera persona projects poorly. W/hair pulled back and worse, in a big floppy hat, she comes off as somebody’s mousey kid sister, not Margaret Thatcher in waiting.

    DCSCA (0a72ba)

  27. What Trump risks if he keeps talking about the judge in his N.Y. criminal case
    Merchan could issue (gag order) himself, or do so at the request of either side, but former prosecutors say they are not used frequently in New York. ……..(I)n this case, it’s Trump own statements that have fueled speculation about whether Merchan will issue one.
    “He’s no different than anyone else,” said (Robert C. Gottlieb, a former assistant district attorney in Manhattan) of Trump, noting that while one cannot ignore the political implications of the case, “that does not give him [Trump] more rights to influence jurors or to threaten or incite violence. In that courtroom, he is only a defendant.”
    (Daniel Horwitz, another former assistant district attorney in the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office, now in private practice) suggested it’s more likely that Merchan will issue a warning to everyone in court Tuesday and set some “ground rules,” essentially putting Trump on notice that if he talks, “he does it at his peril.”

    Gottlieb has appeared before Merchan and agreed that, at minimum, the judge will make a record of what Trump has said about the case thus far, and admonish him against making any statements that could influence the jurors.”
    ………… (F)ormer District Attorney Cy Vance, who immediately preceded Bragg, noted that Trump risks violating other laws if he continues to make statements about the case.

    “There is a crime. That’s called obstructing governmental administration under New York law,” Vance said on MSNBC’s “Inside with Jen Psaki” on Sunday, explaining that it would involve efforts to intimidate a public official. …………..


    Judge won’t let news cameras broadcast Trump’s full court appearance


    Rip Murdock (b21b45)

  28. “her on camera persona projects poorly”

    I always thought that too about Nikki Haley. Not ready for prime time. Plus she flip flops on Trump. On the train, off the train. Never could make up her mind. Liz Cheney very much would be ready for prime time, if she could ever get the nomination.

    JRH (2521b8)

  29. People are saying Trump should have appeared via Zoom? Why? It is in his best interest to appear in person, milk the publicity, and then spin himself as victim. I may not like it, but I can’t blame him. If you can’t handle Trump heat, don’t indict him into the kitchen. The other thing NYC needs to do is make sure it treats MTG the same as lefty loons who want to cause trouble or they will just be fundraising accomplices for Trump and MTG

    steveg (d930cf)

  30. How about treating trump protesters the way anti-war protesters were treated at kent state. Same with MTG treat her the way fred hampton and mark clark were treated.

    asset (a894f4)

  31. How about treating trump protesters the way anti-war protesters were treated at kent state…

    Ask Ashli Babbitt…

    DCSCA (55468d)

  32. The last line…

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  33. Nah! Donnie just wants a cookie. Now! Waah!

    Trump is a very small person, playing at being a big person, and he has a following of little people because, well, what else could they possibly identify with?

    nk (bb1548)

  34. 29. Trump’s arraignment will not be televised. He may not even get a mug shot. Trump has decided, upon reflection maybe, thathe really doesn’t like being humiliated – and doesn’t like the process.

    Sammy Finkelman (86fc01)

  35. The O.J. Simpson jurors were influenced by the National Enquirer which kept running stories about how he was not guilty (and the defense selected jurors who read it, I believe) and right after the not guilty verdict switched to running stories about how he did acting alone </i? which I don’t believe.

    I mean he was the only one at the scene of the crie, but somebody disposed of the bloody clothes and washed the car

    Sammy Finkelman (86fc01)

  36. There are not going to be any violent (or even non-violent) pro-Trump protesters. There’s not been enough time for anyone to organize them. It takes weeks or longer. You only have to worry about lone wolves and there’s no visible target besides Trump himself.

    Sammy Finkelman (86fc01)

  37. Trump will be kept in the DA’s interview room once he surrenders, not any kind of a holding cell with other prisoners.

    Sammy Finkelman (86fc01)

  38. I am curious as to how the judge will take his plea:
    — President Trump, how do you plead?
    — Mr. Trump, how do you plead?
    — How does the defendant plead?

    nk (bb1548)

  39. nk, you know I wasn’t talking about DJT. He is a boggart, right out of Harry Potter.

    I was talking about the people who caper about in joy about DJT, either positive or negative.

    I’m sad for our nation.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  40. I’m sorry, Simon. Thank you for explaining.

    nk (bb1548)

  41. nk, I have “known” you for a very long time. Agree or disagree with me, you are always a quality person and worth reading.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  42. Likewise, Simon.

    nk (bb1548)

  43. I am curious as to how the judge will take his plea

    I’m more curious about the actual indictment.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  44. It is in his best interest to appear in person

    Since this is at least a year after the normal expiration of the statute of limitations, which a NY court has ruled must be tolled during all periods the defendant is out of the state — because of the difficulty in finding or arresting those out-of-state — it is certainly in Trump’s interest to appear in person without any trouble.

    It would be legal malpractice for his attorneys to suggest otherwise, as the tolling of the statute is something they will challenge almost immediately. It’s not like Trump was unavailable at any time in the past 6+ years. The tolling has no basis in his case due to being out of state.

    OTOH, tolling the statute due to the argued presidential immunity might be in order, although even then the Clinton – Paula Jones case shows that charges can be brought even during times of such immunity.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  45. George Santos was present at a Trump rally this morning, in support of his president.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  46. George and Donald were exchanging tips on how to lie for fun and profit. I think they have a lot to learn from each other.

    Appalled (1ca4ed)

  47. @10, @26, @28-

    How quickly Darling Nikki’s fans give up on her. And the campaign really hasn’t started.


    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  48. Clinton – Paula Jones case shows that charges can be brought even during times of such immunity.

    Which was a civil, not criminal, proceeding.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  49. Which was a civil, not criminal, proceeding.

    There was the question of perjury in the case, for which Clinton paid a price. Of course, he wasn’t arrested because perjury is so minor a crime compared to paying blackmail.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  50. How quickly Darling Nikki’s fans give up on her. And the campaign really hasn’t started.

    Who says I gave up on her? It’s more like remaining a Dodger fan after they choked the last several years.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  51. It’s more like remaining a Dodger fan after they choked the last several years.

    Time to get a new team.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  52. Protesters (I don’t know which way or if both and going at each other
    ) were outside Trump Tower (where Trump stayed overnight) getting physical

    Trump’s legal team is reported trying to quiet him downIt’s not a big story..He had called Alvin Bragg an animal, said the judge was biased and hated him.

    Sammy Finkelman (86fc01)

  53. The possible disturbance there was outside Trump Tower is not a big

    News media are focusing on what’s going on in court, or may go on It’s not live,

    Sammy Finkelman (86fc01)

  54. Have you ever seen a video arraignment when the defendant was not in custody in some lockup? Facing one’s accusers is not only a right, it is an obligation.

    Trump may, likely will, get his appearance waived on some future court dates, but only in advance and only by order of court. Failure to appear without a prior order of court noted in the court record will result in a bond forfeiture warrant.

    nk (bb1548)

  55. 49, The charge is not paying blackmail.

    The charge is not properly accounting for it, and is based on Michael Cohen’s claim that Trump DIRECTED him to make the payment and told him he was doing it BECAUSE of the election, Trump says that Michael Cohen did it on his own initiative, and as for why “Ask him”

    Sammy Finkelman (86fc01)

  56. Trump’s motorcade to leave soon from the Trump Tower near 56 St. Exact route not known. Many streets blocked off but they’ll probably try to use the FDR Drive as much as possible. Streets are avoided in high security situations.

    WCBS Channel 2 said nothing about any demonstrators

    Sammy Finkelman (86fc01)

  57. How quickly Darling Nikki’s fans give up on her. And the campaign really hasn’t started.

    Actually, it has started- all the more reason to question the potential of a DeSantis, who has clearly made three errors already before dropping the nickel on a commitment to run, and appears increasingly indecisive. It’s not an issue of ‘giving up on Haley’ but recognizing areas where she clearly needs some help in this Trump obsessed cycle to get her messaging out. But given the ratings and financial bonanza for the national media by obsessing over Trump, it is ‘sucking the oxygen’ out, smothering debate for other candidates in the race.

    DCSCA (4bb51c)

  58. Lest you forget:

    Columnist [Mona Charen] escorted out of CPAC after calling out conservatives for supporting Trump, Moore

    DCSCA (4bb51c)

  59. 57. DCSCA (4bb51c) — 4/4/2023 @ 10:30 am

    ….DeSantis, who has clearly made three errors already before dropping the nickel on a commitment to run, and appears increasingly indecisive.

    Could it be he’s worried about a Florida law that could be interpreted as requiring him to resign as Governor in order to run for president?

    Sammy FInkelman (02a146)

  60. @69. Well, if memory serves, he did pledge to complete his term but he’s starting to look like
    another ‘Hamlet on the Hudson’ as you likely remember… and he, along w/Nikki and any other potential candidates are getting drowned out by the media backwash from this relentless focus on Trump– which generates ratings and revenue but isn’t good for the nation as a whole. They may end up jockeying for the VP spot. But this is his time to grab for the brass ring, or he’ll suffer a Christie fate.

    DCSCA (6415df)

  61. ^59.

    DCSCA (6415df)

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