Patterico's Pontifications

3/13/2023

Mike Pence Talks

Filed under: General — Dana @ 2:19 pm



[guest post by Dana]

Former Vice President Mike Pence spoke at the Gridiron dinner in Washington D.C. this weekend. Pence, who is teasing a run for the presidency, sounded off on Donald Trump at the event. And while he didn’t hold back, his comments were made without a camera rolling. Pence not only went after Trump, but also shredded Tucker Carlson’s outlandish claims about tourists peacefully enjoying the Capitol on Jan. 6:

“January 6 was a tragic day for him. I was there at the Capitol, and let me assure you it was not, as some would have us believe, a matter of tourists peacefully enjoying our Capitol.”

He added, “Tourists don’t injure 140 police officers by sightseeing. Tourists don’t break down doors to get to the Speaker of the House. Or voice threats against public officials. The American people have a right to know what took place at the Capitol on January 6. I expect members of Fourth Estate to continue to do their job. Make no mistake about it — what happened that day was a disgrace and it mocks decency to portray it in any other way.”

Pence recounted his experience at the Capitol that day, as he refused Secret Service pleas to leave the complex to ensure his safety.

“When I was escorted off the Senate floor Secret Service told me that I had to leave the building,” Pence said. “But I was determined to stay. I believed that law enforcement would soon have the situation in hand, never imagining what would unfurl, would occur. But it was there in that small office just off the Senate chamber, there was a small television set, and we watched what was unfolding outside — the mayhem and the rioting. You could hear it echoing outside, and soon thereafter in the hallways.”

Pence then focused specifically on Trump’s behavior and the danger in which the Pence family found themselves:

”I was not afraid but I was angry. President Trump was wrong. I had no right to overturn the election. And his reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol that day. And I know that history will hold Donald Trump accountable” for what happened.

Pence’s team clearly believes that the candidate they see “occupy[ing] the adult-in-a-room 2024 lane” is speaking up at the right time:

[H]is advisers saw the Gridiron dinner as an opportunity not just to echo those sentiments but to amplify them. They also believed it would help Pence win over his most skeptical audience these days: Washington insiders and journalists who have given him short shrift in the early 2024 primary.

“This was a different audience for him,” said Marc Short, Pence’s former vice presidential chief of staff and his senior adviser…Mike is in a different place where he can be sort of free and liberated in ways that I don’t think others in the field are,” Short said. “And so I’m not looking at it as to where he is at this moment. I believe that he’s got a good pathway forward.”

In my opinion, he’s focused on the wrong audience. It wasn’t Washington insiders and journalists that bought into Trump’s lies about the election being stolen. And it wasn’t Washington insiders and journalists that stormed the Capitol on Trump’s behalf. Also, Independents and rational Republicans count for something, too. Therefore, it’s not the Washington insiders and journalists that Pence has to win over if he wants to become the nominee. But hey, it’s not hard to see why he chose a roomful of Washington insiders and journalists to try and win over:

Those close to Pence are trying to help him recapture some of that more freewheeling approach, making sure that his campaign events include fireside chats and not taking a de facto position that the press is the enemy.

The report also notes that Pence has said that it’s critical to be “transparent” about what happened on Jan. 6. If he truly believed that, he would be willing to comply with the subpoena, rather than fight against it.

P.S. Pence is already in campaign mode: New Hampshire on Thursday and Iowa on Saturday…

–Dana

141 Responses to “Mike Pence Talks”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (1225fc)

  2. Is this an appeal to the “never trumpers” wing of the party for the next election cycle?
    I don’t see how this helps him win the nomination.
    [of course he can say what he wants]
    Thank you

    Joe (978bb7)

  3. He really doesn’t have a “lane” in 2024.

    Personally, I do like Pence as when I’m voting for Presidents, I’m very partial to Governors (almost to a fault).

    But, with respect to J6, to his ministerial role in certifying the votes… I don’t buy any criticism from him.

    We knew for days, if not weeks that the Trump admin was looking into whether or not a VP could decline to certify the election. He waited until the last possible moment to object, thus stringing out the Trump admin and supporters of this avenue. I’m sure, from the get-go, Pence decided against this but kept it himself.

    I dunno if J6 would’ve been different had Pence told Trump he wasn’t going to do that before J6, but imo, he doesn’t get very much credit for objecting at the last possible moment, as it smacks as someone looking for an avenue to indeed de-certify the election.

    whembly (d116f3)

  4. There is no hope of anyone winning over the uber-Trumpists who watch Carlson nightly. Pence’s problem is winning over the rest of the convincable, starting with moderate Trumpers, #neverTrump and the center. To do that he has to address the MSM’s pre-mortem of his campaign, which he has done.

    Now, I think his biggest problems are a lack of charisma and being Trump’s VP, which is off-putting all by itself. Maybe he can get people to listen, but he really needs to explain why he’s different and what his vision for the country is, if he has one.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  5. #2,

    If you mean Pence, and not me making the appeal, I suspect it is, at some level. Although it sort of doesn’t make sense because if he thinks this will convince NeverTrumpers to seriously consider him as a future president, he’s underestimating the disgust toward Trump and by extension those who served with him. Especially those who remained silent in the face of so much egregious behavior and corruption during Trump’s tenure.

    Dana (1225fc)

  6. I look forward to the day that the “joe”s of this country will be denying they ever supported that crazy orange guy.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  7. Nikki is better positioned for the mildly-Trump to Center space. Some of her wire-walking has looked ugly, but she hasn’t fallen yet where so many others have.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  8. Always entertaining to hear opinions from Indiana’s ‘favorite son,’ former Vice President Dan Quayle.

    Oh. Wait.

    DCSCA (56f8d5)

  9. Mike Pence speech from Jan 4th 2021:

    “I know we all, we all got our doubts about the last election and I want to assure you I share the concerns of millions of Americans about voting irregularities and I promise you come this Wednesday, we’ll have our day in Congress. [cheers and applause] We will hear the objections, we will hear the evidence… [cheers]”

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?507700-1/vice-president-pence-campaigns-georgia-republican-senators-perdue-loeffler

    BuDuh (5dd8e8)

  10. Words spoken over two years too late. Pence gets no credit for saying them now, IMO.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  11. I agree, Paul. Had he said them anytime before the (unofficial) campaign season began, it might be different. But as it is, he’s just campaigning and trying to grab some voters that will be hard to get. Honestly, I think it’s pretty transparent. But o don’t think he meant “transparency” in this way.

    Dana (1225fc)

  12. Nikki is better positioned for the mildly-Trump to Center space. Some of her wire-walking has looked ugly, but she hasn’t fallen yet where so many others have.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 3/13/2023 @ 2:47 pm

    Darling Nikki is the Smart car being crushed by the DeSantis-Trump semis.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  13. Words spoken over two years too late. Pence gets no credit for saying them now, IMO.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 3/13/2023 @ 3:54 pm

    The same would be said of Darling Nikki if she came out forcefully against Trump. Too little, too late.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  14. I agree. Pence was too Trumpy for too long to be anything else now. Even in Georgia, as BuDuh points out, when he could have said “We lost the Presidency but we can at least keep the Senate”, he fed the flames of the Trump lie and contributed to the Jan. 6 he now complains about. Hoosier, stay home!

    nk (fe1421)

  15. Darling Nikki is the Smart car being crushed by the DeSantis-Trump semis.

    Or maybe she’s the one standing to the side while they cannibalize each other. They are both fighting for the same voters, largely not hers.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  16. BuDuh has it right @9, just showing how long Pence dithered. I wonder what his come-to-Jesus moment was.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  17. The same would be said of Darling Nikki if she came out forcefully against Trump. Too little, too late.

    She did, then her supporters got on the phone.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  18. If this is the way it is going to go: You have to be for OUR SIDE in the GOP civil war, then there is no hope and we should all adjust to Socialism and mandatory sexual experimentation in grammar school.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  19. I am from Chicago. When I see two former Trump handmaidens, Haley and Pence, running against Trump, my first thought is that Trump put them in to dilute the anti-Trump vote.

    Not that he’s funding their campaigns, by any means. Trump does not give money, he takes it. But his big donors could be.

    nk (fe1421)

  20. From The Washington Post: Trump responded to Pence’s comments that he had been wrong to demand that Pence overturn the election results by blaming Pence:

    Donald Trump on Monday sharply rebuked Mike Pence’s assertion that history would hold him accountable for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, telling reporters that his former vice president should shoulder the blame for the violent riot that day by Trump’s supporters.

    “Had he sent the votes back to the legislatures, they wouldn’t have had a problem with Jan. 6, so in many ways you can blame him for Jan. 6,” the former president said, referring to Pence’s refusal to reject the electoral college votes in Congress as Trump wanted him to do that day. “Had he sent them back to Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, the states, I believe, number one, you would have had a different outcome. But I also believe you wouldn’t have had ‘Jan. 6’ as we call it.”

    He has absolutely no business being in any elected position.

    Dana (1225fc)

  21. Those close to Pence are trying to help him recapture some of that more freewheeling approach, making sure that his campaign events include fireside chats and not taking a de facto position that the press is the enemy.

    Freewheeling? Lol. If ever there’s been a politician I could believe tucks his undershirt into his tighty-whities, it’s Mike Pence.

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  22. Those disloyal officers, Dana.

    Ahh, but the strawberries, that’s where he had them. They laughed at him and made jokes but he proved beyond the shadow of a doubt and with geometric logic that a duplicate key to the White House icebox DID exist, and he’d have produced that key if they hadn’t rigged and stolen the election.

    nk (fe1421)


  23. I am from Chicago. When I see two former Trump handmaidens, Haley and Pence, running against Trump, my first thought is that Trump put them in to dilute the anti-Trump vote.

    So, you will do what? Vote for Trump to get the authentic thing?

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  24. If ever there’s been a politician I could believe tucks his undershirt into his tighty-whities, it’s Mike Pence.

    It drives his wife crazy.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  25. So, you will do what? Vote for Trump to get the authentic thing?

    Never say never, but so far the Republican Party is strictly a spectator sport for me.

    nk (fe1421)

  26. How come no republican is talking about us democrats taking over the banking system. Digital currency taking over the monetary system. Bernie, AOC and liz warren will be happy. As I am a non-exploitive capitalist not a socialist I have concerns about government taking over the financial system totally instead of regulating them.

    asset (0b1a19)

  27. Darling Nikki is the Smart car being crushed by the DeSantis-Trump semis.

    Or maybe she’s the one standing to the side while they cannibalize each other. They are both fighting for the same voters, largely not hers.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 3/13/2023 @ 4:27 pm

    LOL!

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  28. She did, then her supporters got on the phone.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 3/13/2023 @ 4:31 pm

    So much for standing up to the mob.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  29. He’s just trying to get invited to DC cocktail parties.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  30. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/13/2023 @ 5:47 pm

    Darling Nikki’s stance on Trump “evolved.”

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  31. Both Pence and Haley long ago hedged their bets concerning their relationship with Trump and his supporters. From 2021:

    ……….
    Pence continued: “I know the media wants to distract from the Biden administration’s failed agenda by focusing on one day in January. They want to use that one day to try and demean the character and intentions of 74 million Americans who believe we could be strong again and prosperous again and supported our administration in 2016 and 2020.” Trump got not quite 63 million votes in 2016.

    (By arguing that punishing the Jan. 6 rioters is equivalent to demeaning all Trump supporters, Pence made a version of the “Otter Defense,” from the 1978 comedy “Animal House.” With his fraternity on trial, Eric “Otter” Stratton argues the process is really an indictment of America itself and declares “you can do whatever you want to us, but we’re not going to sit here and listen to you bad-mouth the United States of America.” …….)
    ……….
    As for Haley, the former South Carolina governor had to put some ideological distance between herself and her blistering comments about Trump in a February interview with Politico.

    At the time, Haley predicted Trump would “find himself further and further isolated” and diagnosed “he’s lost any sort of political viability he was going to have,” effectively ruling out a reelection effort by the former president.
    ……….
    Her cleanup efforts began in April, when she said she would not run if Trump ran. By the time of her Tuesday interview with the Wall Street Journal’s John McCormick, all criticisms of Trump were gone.

    “He has a strong legacy from his administration,” Haley said. “He has the ability to get strong people elected, and he has the ability to move the ball, and I hope that he continues to do that. We need him in the Republican Party. I don’t want us to go back to the days before Trump.”

    (In February, she had said Republicans should “take the good that he built, leave the bad that he did, and get back to a place where we can be a good, valuable, effective party.”)
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  32. As the banks begin failing, we’ll see more distractions and cluelessness

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  33. Let’s go Brandon!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  34. How can they not give Powell and Yellen more leeway and power? They do their jobs so we’ll.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  35. well

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  36. Biden is bailing out his donors in silicon valley. This is why I loathe corporate establishment democrats. The donor class is getting their moneys worth. Grifters like biden and the clinton vie with corporate establishment republicans to curry favor with lobbyists and the donor class. AOC doesn’t take money from these scumbags.

    asset (0b1a19)

  37. Joe Biden’s Banking Hours; tells Morning Joe Joe’s not a morning Joe after all:

    “It’s important to note, President Biden does nothing at 9:00 AM…” “He is a night owl, so the fact that he is doing this at 9:00 AM anyway speaks to how vital the White House recognizes it is for him to have his voice out there conveying that to the American public.” – Jen Psaki, former Biden Press Secretary and current MSNBC pundit, 3/13/23.

    Whnat a hoot; we all know how 80 year olds are wide-eyed, alert and at their best in the dark…

    “Foul Owl On The Prowl,” eh, Jen?!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XC_ZyP20dU

    Got that Xi? Make a note of that, Vlad; bookmark that Kim…

    DCSCA (f83ac2)

  38. So much for standing up to the mob.

    This is a democracy. The “mob” runs things. It’s in the constitution.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  39. Never say never, but so far the Republican Party is strictly a spectator sport for me.

    Way to take a stand!

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  40. Darling Nikki’s stance on Trump “evolved.”

    Who’s did not? Sununu’s, Cheney’s, MD governor whatsisname?

    For the most part, after saying J6 should drive Trump out of the party, she’s kept her mouth shut. A nearly impossible thing for a politicians, true, but she’s done it.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  41. They are both fighting for the same voters, largely not hers.

    All 6 percent? Who are her voters?

    Rip Murdock (4074ee)

  42. For the most part, after saying J6 should drive Trump out of the party, she’s kept her mouth shut. A nearly impossible thing for a politicians, true, but she’s done it.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 3/13/2023 @ 7:32 pm

    Not true.

    “He has a strong legacy from his administration,” Haley said. “He has the ability to get strong people elected, and he has the ability to move the ball, and I hope that he continues to do that. We need him in the Republican Party. I don’t want us to go back to the days before Trump.”

    (In February, she had said Republicans should “take the good that he built, leave the bad that he did, and get back to a place where we can be a good, valuable, effective party.”)

    Rip Murdock (cfb3be)

  43. It figures, that DeSantis said this on Tucker Carlson, and DeSantis is as wrong as Carlson is an unpatriotic pro-Putin hack.
    It’s a key American interest to weaken Putin.
    It’s a key American interest to keep our word, such as our security assurances to Ukraine per the Budapest Memorandum.
    It’s a key American interest to deter Chairman Xi from getting any bright ideas about Taiwan.
    Is DeSantis still a better candidate than Trump? Yes, but the gap between DeSantis and an unacceptable Trump is uncomfortably narrowing.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  44. Way to take a stand!

    To take an aphorism from Nietzsche, the Republican Party now stands in mud. Hip deep.

    nk (fe1421)

  45. DeSantis is also being dishonestly disingenuous, calling Putin’s war of aggression a “territorial dispute”.
    There’s no dispute. Putin’s own Russian Federation recognized Ukraine and promised to respect Ukrainian sovereignty.

    Now both front-runners for the GOP nomination are weaker on Russian aggression than Joe Biden.

    Astonishing. Dangerous.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  46. Words spoken over two years too late. Pence gets no credit for saying them now, IMO.
    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 3/13/2023 @ 3:54 pm

    wow, sounds like that’s the last straw for the crowd who would never have voted for him anyway under any circumstances whether two, six or ten years ago

    JF (d86722)

  47. Darling Nikki’s stance on Trump “evolved.”

    Who’s did not? Sununu’s, Cheney’s, MD governor whatsisname?

    None of them are running for President against Trump.

    Rip Murdock (3eea61)

  48. Rip Murdock (3eea61) — 3/13/2023 @ 8:58 pm

    And none of them worked for Trump.

    Rip Murdock (3eea61)

  49. I have no idea why my comment is in moderation. I didn’t insult no-body today, or use bad words.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  50. None of them are running for President against Trump.

    Got it in one.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  51. Pat Schroeder who has died at 82 and should of been the first woman president was every thing that hillary clinton was not. This is how greatness was not rewarded in american politics.

    asset (0b1a19)

  52. Nobody has voted for Pence since 2012. He was the lagniappe that came with Trump.

    nk (fe1421)

  53. “Is DeSantis still a better candidate than Trump? Yes, but the gap between DeSantis and an unacceptable Trump is uncomfortably narrowing.”

    Does DeSantis really believe that we can’t simultaneously fight the fentynl scourge and support Ukraine against an illegal invasion? Talk about false choices. Like Trump, DeSantis appears to believe that Ukraine should now be primarily a European matter, despite the inconvenient fact that our economic, security, and humanitarian interests are inextricably intertwined.

    DeSantis is poised to let Putin win something by allowing him to wait us out. As Ukraine fights to survive, DeSantis sadly wants timetables and objectives. I guess Ukraine just hasn’t shown enough progress fighting off the ghouls stealing their children, bombing their hospitals, and torturing their civilians. Apparently, how can we ever fight a good culture war while distracted by this savage imagery?

    I expect this from Trump who initially called the invasion “savvy” and described Putin as a “genius”. He’s a moral mess when it comes to anything Putin (of course he’s a moral mess on much everything). But DeSantis should be shrewd enough to distinguish military adventurism from standing with our allies against wanton slaughter.

    Supporters will argue that the Russian war machine has been hollowed out. It’s no longer a broader threat. A cornered Putin may yet unleash apocalyptic nuclear hell. Our commitment to oppose authoritarian aggression has a pricetag, except of course when it comes to China where nuclear reprisals and American casualty concerns are conveniently set aside. How’s that for a mixed message?

    I suppose DeSantis may yet refine this message. Obviously I don’t agree with him and this makes it hard for me to support him. Add in his preference to dubiously limit 1st amendment rights and questionably use state power to punish his political opponents, this isn’t exactly old-school conservatism. He might pick off more of the base with isolationism, but he continues to cede the middle…and the high ground. Maybe it buries Trump, but I question whether it can win the general. Currently I’ll support other Republican voices.

    AJ_Liberty (45f12e)

  54. Thank you for this post! I agree with you, Dana, that Pence is focusing on the wrong audience, and your reason is persuasive, because the quotes you cite strike me as so much spin that I wonder what the truth is – that, possibly, Pence’s team is still in “test the waters” mode with the immediate plan being to see what reports, both in print and electronic, emerge and to assess what aspects of these fruits can be packaged and presented to wary backers. I am left with the perception, as Whembly aptly puts it, “[Pence] really doesn’t have a “lane” in 2024.” To which I would ad, “at this time.”

    I recoil at politicians that have a need or are convinced that they need to be, and agree to be “managed.” Not unlike, say, actors who need to be managed due to the hazards of the business – and I confess to experiencing discomfort as I write this – pols today find themselves at similar disadvantage due to the peculiar hazards (as I will charitably characterize them) posed by politics. I yearn for a leader who needs no packaging or managing. Someone who, very unlike Trump, can mange themselves.

    But what do I know about it? Nothing.

    felipe (77b190)

  55. Someone who, very unlike Trump, can mange themselves.

    Heh! “manage,” not “mange.” But….

    felipe (77b190)

  56. @53

    “Is DeSantis still a better candidate than Trump? Yes, but the gap between DeSantis and an unacceptable Trump is uncomfortably narrowing.”

    Does DeSantis really believe that we can’t simultaneously fight the fentynl scourge and support Ukraine against an illegal invasion? Talk about false choices. Like Trump, DeSantis appears to believe that Ukraine should now be primarily a European matter, despite the inconvenient fact that our economic, security, and humanitarian interests are inextricably intertwined.

    DeSantis is poised to let Putin win something by allowing him to wait us out. As Ukraine fights to survive, DeSantis sadly wants timetables and objectives. I guess Ukraine just hasn’t shown enough progress fighting off the ghouls stealing their children, bombing their hospitals, and torturing their civilians. Apparently, how can we ever fight a good culture war while distracted by this savage imagery?

    I expect this from Trump who initially called the invasion “savvy” and described Putin as a “genius”. He’s a moral mess when it comes to anything Putin (of course he’s a moral mess on much everything). But DeSantis should be shrewd enough to distinguish military adventurism from standing with our allies against wanton slaughter.

    Supporters will argue that the Russian war machine has been hollowed out. It’s no longer a broader threat. A cornered Putin may yet unleash apocalyptic nuclear hell. Our commitment to oppose authoritarian aggression has a pricetag, except of course when it comes to China where nuclear reprisals and American casualty concerns are conveniently set aside. How’s that for a mixed message?

    I suppose DeSantis may yet refine this message. Obviously I don’t agree with him and this makes it hard for me to support him. Add in his preference to dubiously limit 1st amendment rights and questionably use state power to punish his political opponents, this isn’t exactly old-school conservatism. He might pick off more of the base with isolationism, but he continues to cede the middle…and the high ground. Maybe it buries Trump, but I question whether it can win the general. Currently I’ll support other Republican voices.

    AJ_Liberty (45f12e) — 3/14/2023 @ 5:28 am

    DeSantis isn’t calling for disengagement either.

    What you’re seeing, is a statement from soon-to-be-announced POTUS campaign who’s “hedging” a bit here.

    You may think it’s cowardly to accede to Putin, but I’d argue it’s much more nuanced.

    He’s hitting the note among the voters who doesn’t want another Iraq/Afghanistan. Our politicians need to convince voters what, exactly, that means with respect to Ukraine/Russia war.

    whembly (d116f3)

  57. nk (fe1421) — 3/13/2023 @ 4:38 pm

    Quite right, I think. If Trump faces one opponent in the Primary, he’ll lose, but more opponents are to his advantage. whoever wins the Republican nomination, though, will get my vote. I’m an Independent, but the Dems are truly a train-wreck with their policies wherever they rule* unopposed.

    * No, I do not mean “govern.”

    felipe (77b190)

  58. I know i am in the minority here…..

    But I am just wondering is there a hard limit of support for Ukraine here?
    NATO troops?
    F-16’s or A-10’s?
    B-52’s?
    Nukes?

    If the Ukrainian defense collapses, what happens?

    Serious question, and I appreciate others viewpoints.

    Joe (978bb7)

  59. @58 I’m not sure if there ought to be a hard limit.

    If Ukraine’s defenses collapses, you would think NATO would intervene. You can argue that NATO has functionally intervene anyways.

    whembly (d116f3)

  60. @ 59.

    I get we want to be the “good guys” and defeat tyranny.

    Its just that I wish we as a nation had this discussion in the last political cycle. Especially what our limits would be.
    I want to avoid nuclear war, and I am seeing shades of Vietnam here.

    Circling back to Desantis. Democratic Underground also thinks Desantis is also wrong for disagreeing/nuance WRT Ukrainian war. (@53)

    Joe (978bb7)

  61. “I know i am in the minority here…..”

    What a tell. “and you know this….how?”

    felipe (77b190)

  62. @61
    Because I have read what Patterco has said?

    Joe (978bb7)

  63. Patterico runs a true DEI site, as all regulars know. No one is a minority, here. Pass it on.

    felipe (77b190)

  64. Kevin M (1ea396) — 3/13/2023 @ 10:06 pm

    Heh!

    felipe (77b190)

  65. how did I miss this one?

    To take an aphorism from Nietzsche, the Republican Party now stands in mud. Hip deep.
    nk (fe1421) — 3/13/2023 @ 8:00 pm

    I like it.

    felipe (77b190)

  66. Enough coffee for me, I believe.

    Welcome to this site, Joe. This is a good site to make friends through persuasive arguments, because we have some of the best minds gathered here, beginning with the host and his guest posters.

    felipe (77b190)

  67. @60

    @ 59.

    I get we want to be the “good guys” and defeat tyranny.

    Its just that I wish we as a nation had this discussion in the last political cycle. Especially what our limits would be.
    I want to avoid nuclear war, and I am seeing shades of Vietnam here.

    Circling back to Desantis. Democratic Underground also thinks Desantis is also wrong for disagreeing/nuance WRT Ukrainian war. (@53)

    Joe (978bb7) — 3/14/2023 @ 6:58 am

    Internationally recognized boundaries is important. If nation states can flout it, do we even have international laws?

    What’s at stake is more than just Ukraine.

    I do want clear objectives here, and I think we do have one: Make Ukraine whole.

    Now, I wished the European nations would invest and do “more” here as it’s in there backyard. But, I understand that the European nations would rather an outsider, namely the US, be the “face” of supporting Ukraine’s resistance. I understand this because it’s a pragmatic stance to avoid an all-out European war that threatens to be WW3.

    whembly (d116f3)

  68. Maybe it buries Trump, but I question whether it can win the general. Currently I’ll support other Republican voices.

    Exactly. As I said, Trump and DeSantis are fighting for the same voters. There is a separate contest for those that were never fond of Trump, whether they voted for him or not. DeSantis’ main argument is that he’s a better “Trump” — and the improvement is obvious — but not everyone wants a “Trump” at all.

    “Are you a good witch or a bad witch?”
    –Glinda

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  69. Pence has one set of voters who he can uniquely champion: the religious voter. He can make the claim to being a practicing Christian and a moral voice in a way that others (and Trump in particular) cannot. I would bet that he can hold his own in a Bible study, and has lived a life of exemplary behavior and Christian charity. Sure, he’s dull and stodgy but that might be a welcome change.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  70. @ 67

    I am really blackpilled post Covid, its changed by perspective of almost everything…. I now have to question everything and everyone….

    I agree that borders are important, but we the US does not exactly have clean hands. We invaded Iraq. I admit I was for it. But we never did find the WMD’s, we sort of screwed up the kurds, and did not leave it better than we found it.

    Here is a wikipdeia list of border disputes:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_territorial_disputes

    Few talk about the history of the Ukrainian area.

    My perspective is that we don’t have a very good track record of military engagements post WWII, and I would like to see a health debate about it before we further engage.

    I wish that some people would care more about the US/Mexico border more than the Russia/Ukraine border.

    I agree with you that the European nations are acting like its beneath them to address this themselves.

    Once again, thank you.

    Joe (978bb7)

  71. @ 69.

    That’s a really good point. I can’t think of another “religious voter” candidate right now.

    Joe (978bb7)

  72. If Ukraine’s defenses collapses, you would think NATO would intervene. You can argue that NATO has functionally intervene anyways.

    I think that if Russia uses nukes, NATO intervenes (and the US may declare war). Short of that, I don’t see US troops being used and we will not give nukes to anyone who is a signatory to the NNPT.

    What I don’t know is what happens if China formally allies with Russia and supplies ground troops in Ukraine. Hard to say what China would do in exchange for access to all those wonderful Siberian resources.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  73. Patterico runs a true DEI site, as all regulars know. No one is a minority, here. Pass it on.

    I think you’ll find that posting about “the Steal™” will get you moderated.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  74. To take an aphorism from Nietzsche, the Republican Party now stands in mud. Hip deep.

    I take little comfort that the Democrat Party stands in other people’s mud.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  75. @58-60, I’ve sensed no appetite..by anyone…for NATO direct involvement. And I see no interest in Putin drawing NATO in. So it’s hard to characterize this as Vietnam. We do not currently have soldiers directly in action (though I suspect that we have both observers and limited advisers) and so we don’t have soldiers dying. The sense of the conflict spiraling out of control doesn’t seem to be based on anything currently happening.

    The first use of nuclear weapons is a no-win proposition. Personally, I question whether Russian soldiers would initiate a nuclear strike understanding that retaliation and escalation will erase them from the map. Who wants to die for Putin’s megalomania and quest for empire? These aren’t exactly jihadists. These are Russian pragmatists, with many recognizing they’ve stepped into a quagmire. It is equally doubtful that Putin would launch a nuke in Ukraine as fallout can drift into NATO countries…provoking a response. It would solidify international outrage and it would soil the very country he’s supposedly so interested in occupying.

    As to weapon systems, B-52 and nukes are non-starters. No one is discussing either. Air platforms are ongoing negotiations. F-16’s are not exactly something that any Ukraine pilot can jump into and deploy. There would be a significant lag just like the Abrams tanks. Are they provocative? Yes and why there should be lots of discussions and coordination with allies. But Russia at this point can only threaten launching nukes. They really don’t have much else that they can threaten. I doubt the Chinese want to get into this cluster. So air power may very well drive Putin to consider withdrawal. Putin’s best chance right now is for the U.S. to withdraw support. That’s why Tucker Carlson’s show is figured so prominently in Russian media. They need to foment Vietnam fatigue without Vietnam conditions. Tucker is persistent….

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  76. I think you’ll find that posting about “the Steal™” will get you moderated.
    Kevin M (1ea396) — 3/14/2023 @ 8:03 am

    You make a good point, Kevin M, but every commenter has a place here, though that place may be in moderation. I thjnk we’ve all experienced moderation at one point or another – I have, as you know, had my share of moderated comments, but my account has not been placed in moderation, which is your precise point. Your point is well taken.

    felipe (77b190)

  77. J_Liberty (5f05c3) — 3/14/2023 @ 8:08 am
    whembly (d116f3) — 3/14/2023 @ 7:24 am

    Good, detailed comments. Thank you. You know that I am in the “give Ukraine what they need to win, now, not in dribbles” camp. I never served in the military as did a sibling, but I was available and would have gone when called.

    felipe (77b190)

  78. DeSantis isn’t calling for disengagement either.

    Whemby, what does “becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them”, where “them” are “vital national interests”?
    How does that not mean DeSantis supports disengaging from assisting Ukraine in defending their homeland?

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  79. Eh.
    mean, where “them”…

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  80. Also, the NYT did note that DeSantis sang a different tune in 2015…

    “We in the Congress have been urging the president, I’ve been, to provide arms to Ukraine,” Mr. DeSantis said in an interview with the conservative talk radio host Bill Bennett in June 2015, unearthed by CNN.

    “They want to fight their good fight. They’re not asking us to fight it for them. And the president has steadfastly refused. And I think that that’s a mistake.”

    But these anti-Russia views are less popular with today’s G.O.P. base, which has been conditioned over the past seven years by Mr. Trump and influential media figures such as Mr. Carlson, who have questioned why the U.S. should view Mr. Putin as a threat to America.

    Carlson and Trump have certainly done some conditioning and channeling in their cheerleading for Putin.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  81. If the Ukrainian defense collapses, what happens?

    I doubt they’ll collapse, especially if they’re sufficiently armed, as we’ve seen since last July when they received a batch of MLRS and HIMARS. Maybe the better question is: If Putin’s war of aggression succeeds, what happens?

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  82. @78

    DeSantis isn’t calling for disengagement either.

    Whemby, what does “becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them”, where “them” are “vital national interests”?
    How does that not mean DeSantis supports disengaging from assisting Ukraine in defending their homeland?

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 3/14/2023 @ 8:28 am

    “becoming further entangled…”

    Is the hedge.

    That’s not disengaging, that should be construed as maintaining, at least, the current state.

    But, I feel like we’re quibbling here.

    Do you even see what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are doing to our country?

    Our economy?

    Our southern border?

    Our schools?

    My overarching stance are “NOT THAT.”

    DeSantis, (or pick your GOP candidate) may not be perfect, and may flub up Ukraine even more. But its not a deal breaker for me.

    A deal breaker is a continuation of the current Democrat administration’s policies.

    whembly (d116f3)

  83. So it’s hard to characterize this as Vietnam

    Except it’s not. SEA involvement evolved over years w/’Domino’ as the umbrella rationale through several administrations. Propping up and financing a corrupt regime; providing arms/munitions/logistics/intel as ‘aid’… then military ‘advisors’ [they’re there already now]… creating a faux ‘incident[s]’ to justify deeper commitment… all that didn’t occur overnight. The abyss took years to slide into– and years to climb out of. History rhymes.

    DCSCA (8600d5)

  84. If Putin’s war of aggression succeeds, what happens?
    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7) — 3/14/2023 @ 8:38 am

    I am persuaded that this is the better question. I prefer to say:

    If Putin’s [invasion] succeeds, what happens?

    Any euphemism, would be a disservice to justice.

    felipe (77b190)

  85. i think mr. governor ron desantis is a person who likes power over the lives, liberty, and property of other people and will say anything to get it and keep it

    but that’s not the scary part

    the scary part is whether he will do anything to keep it

    that’s the scary part

    nk (dac055)

  86. Whembly, I took “further entangling” as continuing our entanglement, because no one in the Biden administration is saying that we should be doing more than levying sanctions against Russian actors and providing aid to Ukraine.

    The question you should ask yourself is, why would DeSantis be in favor of continuing these levels of aid if they don’t serve our “vital national interests”? And just because Biden-Harris are stumbling around with our southern border and other matters, doesn’t mean DeSantis gets a pass.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  87. DCSCA (8600d5) — 3/14/2023 @ 8:42 am

    You are both right in that he is right to say (I paraphrase) “We are not there (in Vietnem) yet,” and you are right to say (I paraphrase) “but we are on the same historical road.” I say you two but quibble about how to avoid ending in another rhyme.

    Can we please row together rather than quibble over technique? When the citizenry argue instead of responding with one voice to exhort Congress, they will only concern themselves with the acquisition and conservation of power.

    But, of course, I know nothing about it.

    felipe (77b190)

  88. nk (dac055) — 3/14/2023 @ 8:57 am

    No one gets it like Happyfeet nk.

    felipe (77b190)

  89. DeSantis was a Russia/Ukraine hawk as a congressman before he was against Ukraine as a (putative) presidential candidate.

    When then-President Barack Obama decided that the United States would not provide lethal weaponry as part of a $53 billion aid package to Ukraine in 2014, Ron DeSantis was quick to criticize the decision.

    DeSantis, then a member of Congress representing Florida’s 6th district, told conservative talk radio host Bill Bennett in 2015 that it was a mistake for Obama to refuse to provide arms to Ukraine after Russia’s annexation of Crimea the previous year.

    “I think that when someone like [Russian President Vladimir] Putin sees Obama being indecisive, I think that whets his appetite to create more trouble in the area,” DeSantis said at the time, according to a CNN report published last month. “And I think if we were to arm the Ukrainians, I think that would send a strong signal to him that he shouldn’t be going any further.”

    Three years later, when President Donald Trump decided that the United States would provide weapons to Ukraine, DeSantis told Fox News that it illustrated the difference between the two presidents.

    “[Obama] did nothing when Russia invaded Crimea, made incursions into Ukraine,” DeSantis told Jeanine Pirro in 2018. In contrast, he said, Trump’s actions were a way to be “strong against Russia” and prevent future conflicts.

    In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, the Biden administration has wholeheartedly adopted the approach that DeSantis used to advocate. …..

    In short, it’s been nearly the exact same argument that DeSantis made in 2015 after the annexation of Crimea: Arm the Ukrainians to “send a strong signal to [Putin] that he shouldn’t be going any further.”

    Now, however, DeSantis is criticizing that approach.
    ……….
    Judging from his history of talking about conflicts in Ukraine, DeSantis’ foreign policy seems to be defined by a simple rule. Whatever Democrats do is wrong, but whatever Republicans do is right.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  90. If this is the way it is going to go: You have to be for OUR SIDE in the GOP civil war, then there is no hope and we should all adjust to Socialism and mandatory sexual experimentation in grammar school.

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 3/13/2023 @ 4:32 pm

    This is certainly the way it has been going from both sides. For neverTrump is there even a way to repent and join their side? From what I can tell anything other than a spotless record of participating in the 2 minutes of hate since 2016 means you can’t join their team.

    frosty (f0f31f)

  91. I know i am in the minority here…..

    Joe (978bb7) — 3/14/2023 @ 6:44 am

    Maybe only if you count as a percentage of comments. I suspect there are a lot of silent readers who are still wondering when UKR became the most important state in the union.

    frosty (f0f31f)

  92. DeSantis Sends Putin a Message

    It probably should not come as a surprise that Ron DeSantis chose Tucker Carlson’s show to make his first major foreign policy announcement. Tucker, after all, remains the keeper of the right’s restless ethical, moral, and ideological id.
    ……..
    His is the ring that still must be kissed.

    And kiss it DeSantis did. With enthusiasm.
    ………
    The Florida governor’s pivot toward anti-anti-Putinism is likely to cause some agita in the anti-anti-Trump ranks. As recently as February, National Review’s full-time DeSantis merde-polisher, Dan McLaughlin devoted several thousand words to denying that DeSantis was pro-Putin, and insisting that DeSantis has been consistently tough all along. He even quoted the Wapo’s Aaron Blake who noted that DeSantis was a hardliner when he was in Congress.

    At a 2014 hearing, DeSantis warned that Putin’s justification — that Crimea was largely composed of ethnic Russians — could be extended to other nations and even some NATO members such as Latvia and Estonia.

    He pressed an Obama State Department official to confirm that the United States would defend those countries from a Russian incursion . . . under Article 5 of the NATO charter. In a 2015 interview on Fox Business Network, DeSantis criticized Obama for not giving Ukraine both defensive and offensive weapons, saying, “If you had a Reagan-esque policy of strength, I think you would see people like Putin not want to mess with us.”

    ………
    Under Trump, the GOP is rapidly shedding its last vestiges of Reagan-esque foreign policy, and DeSantis has now rushed to catch up with the America First crowd braying for appeasement.

    And while it would be rhetorical overkill to say that DeSantis is actively pro-Putin, he has sent the Butcher of Bucha an unmistakable message:

    Hang on, buddy. Help may no longer be on the way.
    ………

    Italics in original.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  93. How come no republican is talking about us democrats taking over the banking system. Digital currency taking over the monetary system. Bernie, AOC and liz warren will be happy. As I am a non-exploitive capitalist not a socialist I have concerns about government taking over the financial system totally instead of regulating them.

    asset (0b1a19) — 3/13/2023 @ 5:32 pm

    R’s aren’t talking about it because “us D’s” didn’t take it over. The R vs D/us vs them thing is an illusion.

    The US banking system is as close as I’ve seen any modern system to textbook fascism. It is literally a group of private entities operated for the benefit of and by the decree of the state. POTUS gave a press conference and told you that shareholders and bondholders would get nothing, the executives were fired, they would ignore FDIC insurance rules in this case, and the bank was taken over by the government. That isn’t a new thing D’s invented over the weekend.

    The only people against that are the people against more fascism and we’re running out of those fast.

    frosty (f0f31f)

  94. The only people against that are the people against more fascism and we’re running out of those fast.

    House Republicans should introduce legislation to overturn this bureaucratic decision.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  95. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/14/2023 @ 9:44 am

    neverTrump often demands some viable alternative to trump who can carry the TruCon flag they love to wrap themselves in.

    Anyone paying attention has been pointing out that whoever that is will immediately become “just like trump but worse”.

    Nothing says “prepare for NPC meme update” like “And while it would be rhetorical overkill …”

    frosty (f0f31f)

  96. Regarding DeSantis’ position, I think this is spot on:
    https://ewerickson.substack.com/p/desantis-finding-his-own-voice-on


    In a written statement to Tucker Carlson, DeSantis advances a more nuanced view. (1) He wants to help Ukraine; (2) he does not want to give Ukraine offensive capabilities that would allow it to strike outside its territory; (3) he does not want to advance regime change in Russia; and (4) he does not want to take steps that would commit U.S troops to Ukraine.

    The revelation here does not really say much about DeSantis. Of course, he was not going to support going all in on Ukraine or completely withdrawing. That’s been very clear. The reaction to DeSantis is deeply revealing. The press corps will make him the worst thing since Trump and probably worse because he is smarter. The Trump wing of the GOP won’t believe him and will probably be in open warfare with Tucker Carlson before the summer.

    Everyone else will wonder how DeSantis’s position is really that different from everyone else and, should those other candidates declare they do want major offensive weaponry going to Ukraine, they’ll be placed in a more defensive position making DeSantis look reasonable. They don’t want to sound like they want to expand the war. They’ll have to make a case that F-16s are not expanding the war.

    After all, with the exception of saying this is not a national security issue for the United States, DeSantis’s position is … wait for it … no, no seriously… wait for it … Joe Biden’s position. Biden himself has hesitated to send long range missiles and F-16s to Ukraine.

    As articulated, the bottom line is that this position sounds more reasonable than the commentary about it. Also, it sounds like DeSantis has mapped out his path to the White House, has his playbook ready, and has thus far not deviated from the plan. The test of a campaign is really to plan a campaign strategy and stick to it. This seems to be part of that.

    Spot on, imo.

    whembly (d116f3)

  97. House Republicans should introduce legislation to overturn this bureaucratic decision.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/14/2023 @ 9:53 am

    Do you expect them to? I don’t

    frosty (f0f31f)

  98. @92 Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/14/2023 @ 9:44 am

    The Bulwark has lost the F’n plot with that story.

    whembly (d116f3)

  99. i think mr. governor ron desantis is a person who likes power over the lives, liberty, and property of other people and will say anything to get it and keep it

    Hardly unique.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  100. This is certainly the way it has been going from both sides. For neverTrump is there even a way to repent and join their side? From what I can tell anything other than a spotless record of participating in the 2 minutes of hate since 2016 means you can’t join their team.

    So, you think that Trump’s supporters will assuredly vote for someone who’s not been completely supportive since 2016?

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  101. Breaking-

    Russian jet collides with US drone over Black Sea

    A Russian fighter jet has collided with a US drone over the Black Sea, forcing the US Air Force to bring down its unmanned aircraft, the American military says.

    It says the drone was conducting a routine operation in international airspace when two Russian jets tried to intercept it.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  102. House Republicans should introduce legislation to overturn this bureaucratic decision.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/14/2023 @ 9:53 am

    Do you expect them to? I don’t

    frosty (f0f31f) — 3/14/2023 @ 10:00 am

    IF they don’t like the fact the government is backstopping SVB’s depositors they should do so, let the depositors lose their money, and let come what may.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  103. Erickson’s post is filled with problems.
    First, his four-point interpretation of DeSantis’ words is wholly made up, since DeSantis’ read-by-Carlson statement communicated nothing that addressed said points. Erickson’s a crap premise right off the bat.
    Two, what wing of the GOP is supporting that we “go all in on Ukraine”? What does “go all in” even mean? What does “escalation” mean to Erickson’s interpretive ears?
    Three, why does Erickson unequivocally say that F-16s and missiles are “offensive weaponry”? It’s a silly assertion. Ukraine is on defense. Or another way to put it is that Ukraine is fighting an offensive war as much as Putin’s invasion is just a little “territorial dispute”.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  104. whembly (d116f3) — 3/14/2023 @ 9:59 am

    Thank you for that comment, Whembly. I differ with DeSantis about giving Ukraine the ability to strike beyond their border and into Russia’s. To me, that capability to Ukraine is worth risking Russian reprisal because, without it, I would think Russia would not find Ukraine a credible force, and by extension, support for Ukraine serious and credible.

    Russia must be made to de-escalate by ending their invasion of Ukraine – but why should they if they do not believe they are faced with serious opposition which will cost them more than they are prepared to risk?

    felipe (77b190)

  105. Gah! Let me clarify:

    I differ with DeSantis about [not] giving Ukraine the ability to strike beyond their border and into Russia’s. To me, [providing] that capability to Ukraine is worth risking….

    felipe (77b190)

  106. So, you think that Trump’s supporters will assuredly vote for someone who’s not been completely supportive since 2016?
    Kevin M (1ea396) — 3/14/2023 @ 10:12 am

    Speaking only for myself, yes. Providing I have been given sufficient assurance – what that may be, to others, remains to be discovered.

    felipe (77b190)

  107. This is a little off topic; On Biden’s bank policy. this person @WallStreetSilv notes this flaw in the logic. Why keep money in small to medium regional banks with an FDIC limit of $250,000 when you can park it in SVB and Signature with an unlimited ceiling? “every small to medium regional bank will have deposits flowing out this week to those banks that are “systemic” and safe”

    steveg (3d9629)

  108. steveg (3d9629) — 3/14/2023 @ 10:41 am

    That is certainly one of the moral hazards created by government involvement (meddling to some).

    felipe (77b190)

  109. So, you think that Trump’s supporters will assuredly vote for someone who’s not been completely supportive since 2016?

    Kevin M (1ea396) — 3/14/2023 @ 10:12 am

    This is a hard sentence to parse with the semi-double negative. It sounds like you are trying work around an idea that would sound shaky if you said it more plainly. I don’t think anyone will “assuredly” do anything.

    I don’t think the monolithic “Trump supporter” is a thing. The cult story-line is something neverTrump likes because it makes them feel better about themselves. I don’t think neverTrump accepts this story-line either which is why they go on the offensive against anyone who might challenge Trump.

    Are there people who voted Trump who will vote for someone else? Yes. Are there people who will try the Pied Piper plan again? Yes.

    frosty (f0f31f)

  110. 15 comments? I made 15 comments today? I’d better find something else to do! The sun is shining and I need to make some vitamin D. See you guys later, and thanks for putting up with me.

    By the way, good to read your comments, frosty.

    felipe (77b190)

  111. This is a little off topic; On Biden’s bank policy. this person @WallStreetSilv notes this flaw in the logic. Why keep money in small to medium regional banks with an FDIC limit of $250,000 when you can park it in SVB and Signature with an unlimited ceiling? “every small to medium regional bank will have deposits flowing out this week to those banks that are “systemic” and safe”

    steveg (3d9629) — 3/14/2023 @ 10:41 am

    The more common talking points we’re seeing are so contradictory I don’t see how the people making them believe them.

    @WallStreetSilv has been pointing out some of the flaws.

    @DavidSacks is making the case that we have to provide 100% FDIC insurance or we get a bank run. His argument is based on fear of a collapse. He’s arguing that we backstop this particular bank, and Signature, and 20 more, etc., or the whole system fails. The subtext of this argument is “move your money to a safe bank”.

    @Cernovich is making a similar argument. We protect this bank or all regional banks fail and we’re left with the big 4 banks giving us CBDC, a social credit system, banks that won’t deal with gun sellers, etc.

    Both of these guys are arguing for 100% FDIC coverage in this case without arguing for 100% FDIC coverage in general. Both are arguing for something to protect the “regional” banks against the “systemic” banks by promoting solutions that only help the systemic banks over time.

    By providing 100% FDIC insurance we’re saying a bank is “to big to fail”. And the solution being pushed, i.e. dipping into the deposit insurance fund, relies on most banks being solvent and stable.

    Another common theme is that SVB represents a typical regional bank but it doesn’t. The majority of their account holders are above $250k while the average bank account holder is well below $100k. The SVB failure is the biggest since 2008. It’s not a typical regional bank.

    Another common theme is that this is because of deregulation. If that’s true we’re back to an issue with the deposit insurance fund running out.

    If I were a person who embraces skepticism and cynicism I’d suggest there are some deep pockets parked at SVB that really don’t want the usual FDIC limit applied to them and have mobilized the talking heads.

    We’ll see what happens if more banks fail. The current talking points won’t hold up if that happens.

    frosty (f0f31f)

  112. By the way, good to read your comments, frosty.

    felipe (77b190) — 3/14/2023 @ 10:51 am

    Same, glad to see you so active.

    frosty (f0f31f)

  113. Russia must be made to de-escalate by ending their invasion of Ukraine – but why should they if they do not believe they are faced with serious opposition which will cost them more than they are prepared to risk?

    felipe (77b190) — 3/14/2023 @ 10:32 am

    This is basically my problem with the way this has been handled. The existing plan is to slowly bleed RU at the expense of URK while at the same time manipulating the EU energy policy in favor of the US. None of what’s been going on is about de-escalating or getting RU out of URK or ending the conflict.

    frosty (f0f31f)

  114. Most Republicans care more about picking a 2024 GOP nominee who agrees with them on issues than one who can beat Biden

    Republicans hold a dour outlook on the country and prioritize finding a 2024 nominee who shares their views on major issues over one with a strong chance to defeat President Joe Biden, according to a new CNN poll of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents conducted by SSRS. The survey suggests sharp divisions within the potential GOP electorate by age, education, ideology and geography, as well as between Donald Trump backers locked into their choice and a more movable group in search of an alternative.
    ……….
    ……….(T)he survey finds that most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would choose a candidate who agrees with their views on major issues (59%) over one who has a strong chance to beat Biden (41%). A broad majority see it as essential that the party’s nominee demonstrate the sharpness and stamina to serve effectively in office (87%), while smaller majorities say it is essential for the nominee to pledge to maintain Social Security and Medicare as they are (59%), represent the future of the party (57%), support government action to oppose “woke” values (54%) and attract support from outside the party (54%).

    When the potential electorate – broadly defined as those who say they might participate in the 2024 GOP nomination process – are asked to choose who they would most likely support from a list of nine potential candidates, two familiar names rise to the top: 40% say they would most likely back Trump and 36% Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. No other candidate reaches double digits, with former Vice President Mike Pence and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley at 6% each. Combining first and second choice candidates, 65% name DeSantis as their top or second choice, 59% Trump, 22% Pence, 15% Haley and 9% former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, with the rest of the field at 5% or less.

    ………Trump’s backers are most solidly locked in (76% say they’ll definitely support him) and are the most enthusiastic about participating in the primaries (51% are extremely or very enthusiastic). A smaller majority of DeSantis’ supporters say they will definitely support him (59%).
    ………
    Republicans and Republican-leaners who call themselves very conservative are also near universal in their belief that Biden was not legitimately elected president in 2020, with 84% saying his election was not legitimate, including 56% who say that there is solid evidence of that. There is no evidence that the results of the 2020 election were compromised or that widespread fraud occurred that could have affected the outcome.
    ……..
    ……..Republicans generally say that Trump has had a good effect on the party (62% say so, while 25% say he’s had a bad effect)……
    ……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  115. None of what’s been going on is about de-escalating or getting RU out of URK or ending the conflict.

    There is nothing stopping Putin from doing that on is own.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  116. There is nothing stopping Putin from doing that on his is own.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/14/2023 @ 11:35 am

    Fixed.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  117. steveg (3d9629) — 3/14/2023 @ 10:41 am

    I dunno, I’m kinda okay with depositors being protected as long as management and investors take the hit.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  118. Keep the comments coming, felipe, just ixnay on the dad jokes 😉

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  119. “So, you think that Trump’s supporters will assuredly vote for someone who’s not been completely supportive since 2016?”

    Kevin, let me treat your comment more generously. The point here is that someone who remains supportive of Trump…especially after Stop the Steal, his J6 performance, and his subsequent document kerfuffle…. will not be predisposed to vote for a candidate who has been critical of Trump. For instance, I know of no one who is Trump friendly who might vote for Liz Cheney, Chris Sununu, or Nikki Haley (or Larry Hogan). On the other side of the ledger, only Rip here would never support Haley. I think Paul, time123, Kevin, and myself would certainly consider her, though we would all want to hear more about her priorities and agenda.

    Describing fervent supporters as a cult is not especially helpful, but one does wonder what Trump would have to do to lose their support. He does come across as deranged about 2020 and has a lot of baggage. I’m also skeptical that Trump would support anyone that beat him in the primary. He expects loyalty but really has none for the GOP.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  120. @116
    Why?
    Putin thinks he is winning.

    I think the price he is paying is much, much higher that he thought it would be…..

    But I don’t think he is wrong.

    Joe (978bb7)

  121. @121, on what measure would Putin think he is winning? Casualties? Ground gained? Foreign support?

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  122. Desatan comes out as putin’s stooge. The russian anthem should be played when he speaks. This creep says diversity caused bank failures not trumps and rethugs 2018 law that gutted dodd frank for smaller banks. 2008 bank collapse happened without dei it was called greed.

    asset (97678d)

  123. @96. What’s much more telling that an unannounced ‘candidate’ was so easily played to ‘punch down’ and bothered to respond definitively to a goofy “questionnaire” from a cable television opinionator; a talk show host. Next, he’ll be playing “father/son” ‘catch’ on a baseball field before the cameras w/Fox and Friends brainiac, Brian Kilmeade. Oh. Wait… he did that last week.

    Boxers or briefs, Ron? Sean Hannity and Ainsley Earhardt want to know.

    DCSCA (1cc996)

  124. There is nothing stopping Putin from doing that on is own.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/14/2023 @ 11:35 am

    There are actually several things keeping him from doing that “on his own”.

    Do you mean that as a serious comment?

    frosty (f0f31f)

  125. @121, on what measure would Putin think he is winning? Casualties? Ground gained? Foreign support?

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 3/14/2023 @ 1:14 pm

    It could just as easily be asked by what measure do you think he’s losing.

    Everything related to casualties on both sides is no more trustworthy than CCP economic forecasts. Most of the propaganda on both sides is very easy to spot.

    He’s getting support from China and I suspect there’s a few other countries that are taking advantage of the market opportunities.

    He also seems to be keeping a lot of the ground he initially gained. That seems to be the source of a lot of the “give back X” demands.

    If he’s losing why does Z keep asking for more complex weapons systems implying without them UKR will fall? If UKR were winning wouldn’t the simpler demand be for more of the same so that they could keep driving them back?

    frosty (f0f31f)

  126. This creep says diversity caused bank failures not trumps and rethugs 2018 law that gutted dodd frank for smaller banks. 2008 bank collapse happened without dei it was called greed.

    asset (97678d) — 3/14/2023 @ 1:44 pm

    The DEI didn’t help.

    Did you know that Frank of the Dodd-Frank you mentioned was on the board of one of the banks that failed? Did you know that SVB didn’t have a risk manager for most of 2022 and this was publicly reported.

    Blaming this on “gutting” regulations is a weak talking point. If it’s regulations then you should expect most banks to start failing and the deposit insurance scheme won’t save them.

    If you believe your own comment you should only being dealing in cash since any money you’ve got in the bank will be out of reach soon.

    frosty (f0f31f)

  127. 127. The 2018 law had nothing to do with it, but it was the one relevant change made during the Trump Administration, so Biden dishonestly blames that.

    Nor did diversity except to the extent it diverted anyone’s attention.

    The cause of the bank failure was the Fed deciding to raise interest rates to “fight inflation.” It should have been perfectly predictable even if you had no idea what bank would fail first.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  128. @ 122

    I only understand at a very shallow level the interactions between Ukraine and Russia throughout history.
    Very shallow.

    But he is holding land.
    even if he looses this land, he has ensured that it will take a long time for Ukraine to recover economically.

    The combat looses that Ukraine has endured will also negatively affect the population of Ukraine.

    He has also strengthened ties with China, India, and Iran.

    I am unconvinced that Russia will loose long term energy customers to Europe.

    Joe (978bb7)

  129. frosty (f0f31f) — 3/14/2023 @ 2:15 pm

    If he’s losing why does Z keep asking for more complex weapons systems implying without them UKR will fall?

    UKR is not losing but it’s not winning either.

    Z knows that ZNAZTO is terrified that UKR will lose (but not sure they want UKR to win because that could lead to something worse than Chernobyl.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  130. “The DEI didn’t help.

    Did you know that Frank of the Dodd-Frank you mentioned was on the board of one of the banks that failed? Did you know that SVB didn’t have a risk manager for most of 2022 and this was publicly reported.

    Blaming this on “gutting” regulations is a weak talking point. If it’s regulations then you should expect most banks to start failing and the deposit insurance scheme won’t save them.

    If you believe your own comment you should only being dealing in cash since any money you’ve got in the bank will be out of reach soon.”

    There are two conflicting narratives being pushed. On the Republican side, it’s DEI, which is abject nonsense. On the Democrat side, it’s weakened regulations, which is wrong, but requires more explanation. SVB failed because they had trouble [b]quickly[/b] covering withdrawals. I think it’s likely that even if they had been subject to the dodd-frank stress tests, they probably would have passed, because the stress tests are spread out of weeks or months, and SVB had withdrawals of $42 billion in a single day (almost a quarter of their total). Earlier, SVB had posted a loss of $1.8 billion (about 1% of their assets), as well as a plan to funds to cover this loss. Unfortunately for them, their stock cratered the next day, and this triggered the withdrawals.

    I think it’s possible that if SVB actually had a risk manager for the relevant time period, they might have avoided that $1.8 billion loss, and thus would have prevented the run.

    What I find interesting is the failure of SVB UK. SVB UK was independent of SVB, and had none of the financial troubles that SVB did. Nevertheless, depositors panicked and the bank failed. In the face of something like this, no bank is truly safe, which should be concerning to everyone.

    Davethulhu (9bfafb)

  131. At a personal level, I’d suggest avoiding any bank that has significant VC/startup presence, because those guys will panic at the drop of a hat.

    Davethulhu (9bfafb)

  132. There are actually several things keeping him from doing that “on his own”.

    Do you mean that as a serious comment?

    frosty (f0f31f) — 3/14/2023 @ 2:04 pm

    I would agree the Putin’s own political and physical survival depend on him continuing (and winning) the war, but it is not a flip comment to suggest that if he wanted to end the fighting he can do so on his own. Putin doesn’t need any help from the West to end the fighting.

    Saying “None of what’s been going on is about de-escalating or getting RU out of URK or ending the conflict” is incorrect. Everything that Ukraine is doing is get Russia out of Ukraine and ending the conflict. And Russia is not interested in ending the conflict by negotiation or withdrawal. It is only interested in permanently removing Ukraine from Europe.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  133. When a bear wants to eat a badger, the only way to end or de-escalate the conflict is for the badger to sink its teeth in the bear’s snout and claw the bear’s face.

    Of course, Putin can end the war on his own. He started it minimal goals: A police action to de-Nazify the southeastern regions of Ukraine. He can pull the Russian troops out and proclaim “Veni, vidi, de-Nazified”. And throw anybody who contradicts him out of a window.

    The thing is that Putin is a sociopath. From his point of view, he is paying no price. He is not being shot at. He is not sleeping on frozen mud. He still has all his money, perquisites, and comforts. Others are paying the price.

    The only thing you can do with a predator like that is fight like hell to avoid being eaten.

    nk (88e8b5)

  134. DeSantis is also being dishonestly disingenuous, calling Putin’s war of aggression a “territorial dispute”.

    Sort of like Hitler’s absorption of Austria and Czechoslovakia, and the invasions of Poland, France, and the Soviet Union were also “territorial disputes.”

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  135. 131… There will be no consequences for this mismanagement. They knew this day was likely to come and they did nothing.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  136. DeSantis is also being dishonestly disingenuous, calling Putin’s war of aggression a “territorial dispute”.

    Well, DeSantis is trying to win over Trump’s voters, so being disingenuous seems about right. There are really two Republican parties now, the Trump wing and the other guys. DeSantis seems to be correct in thinking that he has to knock out Trump early, or Trump will knock him out. Unlike some of the other candidates, he cannot rely on the center to supply him votes. Haley will lock those up, but with Trump gone, she may be SOL.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  137. UKR is not losing but it’s not winning either.

    Ukraine as similar problem to the Confederacy. In a war of attrition, they cannot stand the losses the other side can afford. They may win battles but the cost is too much. Russia also has a strong industry providing mass quantities of weapons. They might not be as good, but “quantity has a quality all its own.” (J Stalin)

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  138. Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 3/14/2023 @ 4:14 pm

    I can only try to keep saying this as plainly as possible. The US does not want to end the conflict quickly. This is a proxy war between the US and RU and the way the US wins is to drag this out as long as possible.

    Z and UKR have almost zero control over ending this war. Z/UKR have two choices. They can quit and die quickly or do whatever the US tells them and hope to not die tired. There is no “win” for UKR. There is only survive. The country has effectively been destroyed and only exists because we’re pumping buckets of money into it. It’s unlikely the country will be anything other than a corrupt failed state in our lifetimes even assuming they drive RU back to the pre-invasion borders.

    NK is correct in @134. The only mistake is that there’s a subtle, and important depending on your perspective, difference between not being eaten and surviving.

    frosty (48bb1c)

  139. Davethulhu (9bfafb) — 3/14/2023 @ 3:28 pm

    Some of the other competing narratives are that the FDIC saved a “regional” bank. You know, just like those regional banks in the southeast or midwest and that if it didn’t all of those other banks would also be in danger.

    It’s not a typical regional bank and all of those other banks are still in trouble. The problems with unrealized losses from the rate hikes are systemic. Let’s not ask to many questions about the $120b insurance fund and SVBs assets of $209b. There was a reason behind Biden’s word choice about who was going to pay to cover the deposits.

    The other narrative that the bank collapsed because of the run is only partially correct because it picks up at a convenient part of the story. Sort of like a guy getting drunk and running a red light and it being described as a failure of his brakes to effectively stop him in time. The run started when a group of VCs noticed SVB’s announcement that it needed new capital and they finally decided to do some due diligence. The problem was clear for a very long time and one of the competing narratives is that this was sudden and also this problem was pointed out a long time ago. I’ve seen someone make both of those comments in the same discussion.

    A few others I’ve heard lately; VCs routinely deal in transactions over $250k and can’t be bothered with managing their cash to make sure it’s insured. You’re supposed to forget about all of the other businesses that routinely do exactly that.

    The BS on the SVB deal is multilayered and of a most foul quality.

    frosty (48bb1c)

  140. Davethulhu (9bfafb) — 3/14/2023 @ 3:44 pm

    because those guys will panic at the drop of a hat.

    They will panic when they see that a bank is trying to raise extra capital (quickly) or maybe when they see that a bank is using the Fed’s discount window.

    On a personal level, it doesn’t matter, unless you have more than $250,000 deposited AND the whole economy will be allowed to collapse. It might be a benefit to have an account at aclosed bank, as then you will get an account at abig bank, possibly on better terms.

    Sammy Finkelman (1371ba)


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