Patterico's Pontifications

3/10/2023

I’m . . . Not Sure That Follows

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:04 am



This tweet caught my attention this morning:

It links an article at National Review about Gaetz’s failed plan to withdraw troops from Syria. The unspoken assumption is that military folks understand the need for national defense better than anyone. So put in a normal guy, and a soft-on-defense fella will go down.

I see it differently. I think the military folks in that district are why Gaetz is in Congress.

I’m tossing this post into the discussion hopper before leaving for work. I tried looking up recent data on how vets feel about Trump and could not find anything clear. Maybe commenters can.

But I know the vibe I get. And it’s that military members and vets are patriotic, and for some reason that translates to votes for Trump and Trumpy candidates.

I used to think like Will Collier. I remember thinking after Trump mocked McCain for getting captured in battle that he would be massacred in military-heavy South Carolina. That was definitively not the case.

And in 2016, some of the nastiest and most virulently ardent Trumpers on Twitter had bios saying they were veterans.

This is obviously not a slam on our military or our veterans. My Dad and brother were both in the Navy and I am a fan of military members and veterans.

I’m just not sure I’m a fan of their voting patterns.

Feel free to tell me I’m wrong. I might be.

39 Responses to “I’m . . . Not Sure That Follows”

  1. Perhaps because it does not make sense for us to be in the middle of a civil war?
    You could always ask them directly.

    Joe (978bb7)

  2. I don’t presume to speak for veterans, but I’m sure they are tired of fighting half-assed wars under politically correct rules, seeing their comrades lose their life in service of the country, then having the campaign abandoned because the American people want to get back to a life of Tik Tok and the Kardashian sisters. So yeah, I think Patterico is right and there is probably an attitude of “let’s stop dicking around in basket-case countries like Syria” among our nation’s military veterans. Trump at least gave the impression that he understood that in a way that Bush, Obama, and Biden do not.

    JVW (cb63a1)

  3. Poll: Trump backed by majority of veterans, but not younger ones

    Older veterans are overwhelmingly backing President Donald Trump in the upcoming election while younger veterans significantly prefer former Vice President Joe Biden as the next commander in chief, according to the results of a recent Military Times poll of veterans.

    Altogether, about 52 percent of veterans surveyed said they plan to back Trump (or have already backed him, in early voting) in his reelection campaign this year. About 42 percent said they have voted or plan to vote for Biden instead, with the remainder split between third-party candidates and sitting out the election.

    nk (57a8aa)

  4. That’s all copypasta in my comment 3. The form reversed my blockquote.

    nk (57a8aa)

  5. Anyway, the psychology of the Trump voter which includes the voters for people endorsed by Trump can be found on the first page of Orwell’s 1984.

    nk (57a8aa)

  6. When Americans were asked an open-ended question about what we should do during the Vietnam War, a large number said “win or get out”, or something similar. That doesn’t fit the hawk-dove continuum that is now generally used to describe public opinion on the war, but it is a typical American attitude.

    That American desire for a quick solution can be a strength or a weakness, depending on the problem.

    Jim Miller (f29931)

  7. I don’t want our forces in Syria either, but the Islamic State is there and we have a couple AUMFs that enable us to decimate the militant Islamist group. If they happen to be on Syrian soil, so be it.
    Assad has a well documented record of giving these terrorists safe transit and safe harbor, and we already had a president who prematurely withdrew from the theater and declared “I won in Iraq” only to deal with an Islamic State that didn’t get his message. It’s funny how CodePinkish characters like Gaetz didn’t learn those lessons.
    As for his primary chances, I regret to say that as long as his lips are politically fastened to Trump’s fat white arse, he’ll win his primary.

    Paul Montagu (8f0dc7)

  8. I am not approving of what I write here, but I have many many conservative relatives that will vote for DJT because he says rude things about the people who say rude things to him. It doesn’t matter that he says rude things to everyone.

    Many folks are tired of knuckling under to the excesses of the Left. And let’s be honest: many folks on the Left sneer at the Right, claiming to be smarter, better, etc. So the quiet Right is saying “enough.” They want a person who will fight back.

    Sadly, it leads to people like DJT.

    But it can lead to people who thread the needle better. We can all hope.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  9. The real question is why Trump support collapsed in 2016, lower than any election since 2008, where voting for Obama was a “team” thing among blacks.

    2004: Bush (57-41)
    2008: McCain (54-44)
    2012: Romney (59-39)
    2016: Trump (60-34)
    2020: Trump (54-44)

    Collier may have the correct side of this.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  10. * The real question is why Trump support collapsed in 2020

    Gah!

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  11. As for his primary chances, I regret to say that as long as his lips are politically fastened to Trump’s fat white arse, he’ll win his primary.

    I think pictures of that (or similar) would be a problem. There is a possibility that more scandals will erupt.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  12. A suggestion for monetizing the blog: Allow editing, but charge a dollar for each edit.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  13. 2004: Bush (57-41)
    2008: McCain (54-44)
    2012: Romney (59-39)
    2016: Trump (60-34)
    2020: Trump (54-44)

    What strikes me about this is that in four out of these five elections, veterans vote about 98% for either the Democrat or Republican. But in 2016, only 94% of them voted for one of the two main parties. Were a lot of them like me, bound and determined not to vote for either HRC or DJT, and ended up wasting a vote on a flake like Evan McMullin or an idiot like Jill Stein? Or did Biden just do a good enough job in 2020 to pick up all of that 4% while also cutting into the Trump vote somewhat.

    Man, our men and women in arms really don’t like Hillary Clinton, do they? God bless ’em.

    JVW (f63ace)

  14. Man, our men and women in arms really don’t like Hillary Clinton, do they? God bless ’em.

    Clearly her husband wasn’t thrilled w/her, either… and he, ‘loathed the military.’ 😉

    DCSCA (55fd53)

  15. Background:

    Syria mission worth the risk, top U.S. general says after rare visit

    https://www.reuters.com/world/top-us-general-makes-unannounced-visit-syria-reviews-mission-2023-03-04/

    DCSCA (55fd53)

  16. Max Boot reconsiders. I confess I haven’t read this yet, but am looking forward to learning his reasoning.

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iraq/what-neocons-got-wrong

    ColoComment (47ffdd)

  17. @16. (We arrived from the Soviet Union in 1976, when I was six years old.) Having lived in a communist dictatorship, I supported the United States spreading freedom abroad.

    Who does he think he was, Stewie Griffin? It’s laughable that he’s pitching that as a mere infant [he was born in September, 1969] and he had assimilated a cogent grasp of what a communist dictatorship was at 6 — as the only ‘dictators’ in his little universe were in all likelihood his own parents, who ruled over his life at the time then moved him West in 1976, beyond his own control. A mere six year old… he’s now 53.. so this is either a case of ‘if you can’t beat’em, join’em’… or waking up to smell the Maxwell House. He also might want to learn how to spell ‘Eisenhower’… or can that error be blamed on FA editors.

    DCSCA (55fd53)

  18. He also might want to learn how to spell ‘Eisenhower’… or can that error be blamed on FA editors.

    Speaking for myself, anytime you see a spelling or grammatical error in one of my posts, it’s definitely the fault of my editors.

    JVW (334085)

  19. Veterans who have been in a war are skeptical of military intervention, unless absolutely necessary.

    DN (e82d0a)

  20. @18. LOL

    DCSCA (33a556)

  21. @19. Just finished rereading Colin Powell’s book, ‘It Worked For Me’ and his POV is valid in that it’s not the boots on the ground who are physically in harm’s way that are responsible for any snafus; the men and women driving the tanks and planes– they’re just carrying out directives. It’s the policymakers, strategists and brass, far removed in the Pentagon, where the problems fester. This may likely be just another round of jousting with Milley and Austin over policy and their decision making histories.

    DCSCA (33a556)

  22. 14. DCSCA (55fd53) — 3/10/2023 @ 11:05 am

    and he, ‘loathed the military.’ 😉

    No, he said other people did.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  23. What do people have against being involved in “civil wars?”

    It makes no sense.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  24. News Item: Saudi Arabia and Iran Agree to Restore Ties, in Talks Hosted by China

    Matt Gaetz: “We are not a Middle Eastern power. “

    He’s got that right.

    Rip Murdock (80f192)

  25. ^ Gotta fill up! Thanks for the heads up, RIP.

    urbanleftbehind (b38c13)

  26. @22. Sammy: Bill Clinton’s draft letter- in full. His words:

    “Dear Colonel Holmes,

    I am sorry to be so long in writing. I know I promised to let you hear from me at least once a month, and from now on you will, but I have had to have some time to think about this first letter. Almost daily since my return to England I have thought about writing, about what I want to and ought to say. First, I want to thank you, not just for saving me from the draft, but for being so kind and decent to me last summer, when I was as low as I have ever been. One thing which made the bond we struck in good faith somewhat palatable to me was my high regard for you personally. In retrospect, it seems that the admiration might not have been mutual had you known a little more about me, about my political beliefs and activities. At least you might have thought me more fit for the draft than for ROTC. Let me try to explain.

    As you know, I worked for two years in a very minor position on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. I did it for the experience and the salary, but also for the opportunity, however small, of working every day against a war I opposed and despised with a depth of feeling I had reserved solely for racism in America before Vietnam. I did not take the matter lightly, but studied it carefully, and there was a time when not many people had more information about Vietnam at hand than I did. I have written and spoken and marched against the war. One of the national organizers of the Vietnam Moratorium is a close friend of mine. After I left Arkansas last summer, I went to Washington to work in the national headquarters of the Moratorium, then to England to organize the Americans here for demonstrations here October 15th and November 16th.

    Interlocked with the war is the draft issue, which I did not begin to consider separately until early 1968. For a law seminar at Georgetown I wrote a paper on the legal arguments for and against allowing, within the Selective Service System, the classification of selective conscientious objection, for those opposed to participation in a particular war, not simply to, quote, participation in war in any form, end quote. From my work I came to believe that the draft system itself is illegitimate. No government really rooted in limited, parliamentary democracy should have the power to make its citizens fight and kill and die in a war they may oppose, a war which even possibly may be wrong, a war which, in any case, does not involve immediately the peace and freedom of the nation.
    The draft was justified in World War II because the life of the people collectively was at stake. Individuals had to fight if the nation was to survive, for the lives of their countrymen and their way of life. Vietnam is no such case. Nor was Korea, an example where, in my opinion, certain military action was justified but the draft was not, for the reasons stated above.

    Because of my opposition to the draft and the war, I am in great sympathy with those who are not willing to fight, kill, and maybe die for their country, that is, the particular policy of a particular government, right or wrong. Two of my friends at Oxford are conscientious objectors. I wrote a letter of recommendation for one of them to his Mississippi draft board, a letter which I am more proud of than anything else I wrote at Oxford last year. One of my roommates is a draft resister who is possibly under indictment and may never be able to go home again. He is one of the bravest, best men I know. His country needs men like him more than they know. That he is considered a criminal is an obscenity.

    The decision not to be a resister and the related subsequent decisions were the most difficult of my life. I decided to accept the draft in spite of my beliefs for one reason: to maintain my political viability within the system. For years I have worked to prepare myself for a political life characterized by both practical political ability and concern for rapid social progress. It is a life I still feel compelled to try to lead. I do not think our system of government is by definition corrupt, however dangerous and inadequate it has been in recent years (the society may be corrupt, but that is not the same thing, and if that is true we are all finished anyway).

    When the draft came, despite political convictions, I was having a hard time facing the prospect of fighting a war I had been fighting against, and that is why I contacted you. ROTC was the one way left in which I could possibly, but not positively, avoid both Vietnam and resistance. Going on with my education, even coming back to England, played no part in my decision to join ROTC. I am back here, and would have been at Arkansas Law School, because there is nothing else I can do. In fact, I would like to have been able to take a year out perhaps to teach in a small college or work on some community action project and in the process to decide whether to attend law school or graduate school and how to be putting what I have learned to use. But the particulars of my personal life are not nearly as important to me as the principles involved.

    After I signed the ROTC letter of intent I began to wonder whether the compromise I had made with myself was not more objectionable than the draft would have been, because I had no interest in the ROTC program in itself and all I seemed to have done was to protect myself from physical harm. Also, I began to think I had deceived you, not by lies – there were none – but by failing to tell you all the things I’m writing now. I doubt that I had the mental coherence to articulate them then. At that time, after we had made our agreement and you had sent my 1 – D deferment to my draft board, the anguish and loss of self-regard and self-confidence really set in. I hardly slept for weeks and kept going by eating compulsively and reading until exhaustion brought sleep. Finally on September 12th, I stayed up all night writing a letter to the chairman of my draft board, saying basically what is in the preceding paragraph, thanking him for trying to help me in a case where he really couldn’t, and stating that I couldn’t do the ROTC after all and would he please draft me as soon as possible.

    I never mailed the letter, but I did carry it on me every day until I got on the plane to return to England. I didn’t mail the letter because I didn’t see, in the end, how my going in the Army and maybe going to Vietnam would achieve anything except a feeling that I had punished myself and gotten what I deserved. So I came back to England to try to make something of this second year of my Rhodes scholarship.

    And that is where I am now, writing to you because you have been good to me and have a right to know what I think and feel. I am writing too in the hope that my telling this one story will help you to understand more clearly how so many fine people have come to find themselves still loving their country but loathing the military, to which you and other good men have devoted years, lifetimes, of the best service you could give. To many of us, it is no longer clear what is service and what is disservice, or if it is clear, the conclusion is likely to be illegal. Forgive the length of this letter. There was much to say. There is still a lot to be said, but it can wait. Please say hello to Colonel Jones for me. Merry Christmas.

    Sincerely,

    Bill Clinton” [December 3, 1969]

    https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/clinton/etc/draftletter.html

    Next episode: debate what the definition of ‘is’ is.

    DCSCA (337633)

  27. “And it’s that military members and vets are patriotic, and for some reason that translates to votes for Trump and Trumpy candidates. I used to think like Will Collier. I remember thinking after Trump mocked McCain for getting captured in battle that he would be massacred in military-heavy South Carolina.”

    Yeah I was surprised Trump’s support held after the McCain comment, though it’s instructive that Trump did not continue beating that drum. Perhaps it was only strike one for many who weighed the remark. Trump also captured a sort of weariness that lingered after more than a decade in both Iraq and Afghanistan. He came across as more measured than the Neocons who were wanting to transform societies and underestimated the difficulty and cost.

    On the other side, Hillary was a horrible candidate with Benghazi and computer server sort of arrogant negligence. It then gets wrapped into the growing partisanship of the times and social media’s us vs them narrative and 2016 support is easy to understand. Trump was a risk, but Hillary was seen as a disaster waiting to happen.

    Now today the dynamic is still driven by distrusting the Democrat more than some love for Trump. People still weirdly believe that something will constrain Trump. Trump still resonates among social conservatives. Gun people will choose him over nearly any Democrat. Still, his weird fascination with Putin and his own arrogance with the constitution, the J6 chaos, and statements like “his generals” cause a lot of military folks to want a different option.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  28. What do people have against being involved in “civil wars?”

    Because civil wars are without rules. They are the nastiest, most strident and most murderous wars possible. They are the product of a long buildup of hate and transgression.

    They tend to treat the civilian population as an enemy to be obliterated rather than conquered.

    Bosnia was pretty typical for a civil war. Really the best thing to do is stand back.

    Kevin M (1ea396)

  29. Re #3, Romney’s high bounce in 2012 from 2008 was also influenced by the threat of involuntary RIFs circulated during the Simpson Bowles discussions. This might have also explained the 20% + black male age 20-29 support he had (which has held and even expanded by Trump in both his contests).

    urbanleftbehind (b38c13)

  30. @24. America has spent $6.4 trillion on wars in the Middle East and Asia since 2001, a new study says

    -The U.S. wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Pakistan have cost American taxpayers $6.4 trillion since they began in 2001

    -That total is $2 trillion more than all federal government spending during the recently completed fiscal year.

    -The report, from Watson Institute of International and Public Affairs at Brown University, also finds that more than 801,000 people have died as a direct result of fighting.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/us-spent-6point4-trillion-on-middle-east-wars-since-2001-study.html

    DCSCA (8001f5)

  31. @2

    I don’t presume to speak for veterans, but I’m sure they are tired of fighting half-assed wars under politically correct rules, seeing their comrades lose their life in service of the country, then having the campaign abandoned because the American people want to get back to a life of Tik Tok and the Kardashian sisters. So yeah, I think Patterico is right and there is probably an attitude of “let’s stop dicking around in basket-case countries like Syria” among our nation’s military veterans. Trump at least gave the impression that he understood that in a way that Bush, Obama, and Biden do not.

    JVW (cb63a1) — 3/10/2023 @ 8:18 am

    *waves*
    Never enlisted, by have numerous family and friends in the service.

    Almost to a person, every one of those serving/has serviced voted FOR Trump to change the direction of the country’s usage of the military as an international police force or nation-building apparatick.

    The military’s sole job is the defend America and her interests.

    The thought was that, Trump wasn’t an isolationish per se, it’s just that he didn’t want to engage in meaningless wars. (he’s obvious attempt to draw down Afghanistan was a huge plus).

    However, think if it’s Trump vs DeSantis in the primary… it’ll probably end up being a 50-50 split.

    whembly (d116f3)

  32. Almost to a person, every one of those serving/has serviced voted FOR Trump to change the direction of the country’s usage of the military as an international police force or nation-building apparatick.

    Not by that much:

    Exit polling from Edison Research (which surveyed voters who cast ballots in person and by mail) indicated that military and veteran voters were more supportive of Trump (52 percent) than Biden (45 percent).

    Both of those numbers echo results of a Military Times poll released last month, which showed a 52-42 split among likely veteran voters. However, within that group, younger veterans were more likely to favor Biden (51 percent to 40 percent in favor of Biden among veterans 34 to 54 years old) than older veterans (59 percent to 38 percent among veterans 55 years and older).

    Rip Murdock (a74e72)

  33. On Gaetz, it just goes that way sometimes. people vote for the person who they feel will represent them better than the alternative. Obviously they had a chance to vote for the Democrat or withhold their vote and throw it to the Democrat and decided Gaetz was better for their interests. You could say the same party politic happens for MTG, Tlaib. Waters AOC, Schiff etc the voters look around and vote for the choice that best represents them and they don’t throw their vote away. I think Gaetz’ 90% votes in the right direction is thought of as being better than the Democrats 99% votes in the wrong direction. When I hear people excoriating the voters in the Bronx who vote for AOC, it smacks of the same elitist high brow BS you see with MTG or Gaetz when they get re-elected. By re-election time the voters have done their cost benefit analysis and made the choice that is best for them of the two viable choices offered. The GOP won’t primary Gaetz, but you won’t see Democrats primarying Tlaib either, so it is a stand off.
    Decisions to primary or not often boil down to if one would rather have that bastard on my team and for sure hold ground vs. dump the bastard and maybe lose ground

    steveg (54b57f)

  34. This year’s Oscar slap:

    Oscars Reject Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Bid to Appear on Telecast

    For the past year, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been greeted with open arms by awards shows, film festivals and even the New York Stock Exchange. But when it comes to landing airtime on the most coveted telecast of all — the Oscars — the Ukrainian leader is being met with a cold shoulder.

    For the second year in a row, the Academy has snubbed Zelenskyy, who was hoping to follow up his Berlin Film Festival (remote) appearance last month with a virtual spot on Sunday’s Oscar telecast on ABC.

    Sources say WME power agent Mike Simpson made a plea to the Academy to include the comedic actor-turned-politician but was shut down. The Academy declined comment. [Your freely given, suckered tax dollars at work: Zelinskyy is paying a Hollywood AGENT!? Does Biden have one?? Maybe Vlad, Kim and Xi, tas well?!]

    Zelenskyy’s overtures to the Oscars comes as polls show Americans’ support for providing assistance to Ukraine has weakened…

    Last year, Oscars producer Will Packer nixed a Zelenskyy appearance. Sources say Packer expressed concerns that Hollywood was only showering Ukraine with attention because those affected by the conflict are white. By contrast, Hollywood has ignored wars around the globe that impact people of color, he argued. Packer did not respond to a request for comment. It is unclear what the rationale is for this year’s Oscars rejection, however, the Academy traditionally prefers to focus on the contributions of the filmmaking community and steer clear of anything political.

    Meanwhile, the Academy isn’t the only group to refuse Zelenskyy. In September, Zelenskyy’s team reached out to the Toronto Film Festival about the leader appearing via satellite, but they were denied…

    https://variety.com/2023/film/news/volodymyr-zelensky-ukraine-oscars-appearance-russia-1235547499/

    DCSCA (3564b1)

  35. They gave the people of Pennsylvania Fetterman vs Dr Oz

    steveg (54b57f)

  36. Santos, Luna, and now Andy Ogles (yeah, Ogles) of Tennessee. But if Trump can do it, why can’t they?

    Tennessee Rep. Andy Ogles accused of embellishing resume

    Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) was accused on Thursday of misrepresenting himself as an economist, police officer, and international sex crimes expert on the campaign trail in 2022 and again as a congressman.

    In a situation reminiscent of lying Rep. George Santos’ (R-NY) scandals, Nashville news outlet WTVF reported on Thursday that Ogles, a freshman member of the House, exaggerated much of his work history related to combating human trafficking and appears to have never formally studied economics or worked as an economist.

    BONUS MATERIAL: “Wadddabout ‘lizabeth Warren” already at the NYT comments.

    nk (903b67)

  37. NYP comments.

    nk (903b67)

  38. I guess the key is to try and get involved early on in the candidate selection process. Most of working people don’t have time for it, and if they have kids, its worse. I live in a dark blue enclave in CA and I vote for the GOP candidate just to let them know what percentage of the population is not Democrat. I’m don’t even vet them much, its a small town so I usually am familiar, they aren’t going to win anyway. But lets say we had a dud of a person running as GOP candidate and he is likely to win very narrowly over the current Democrat party line voter Salud Carbajal. I know Salud to say hi, he’d be a snitch of a neighbor but otherwise OK except he votes nearly 100% the wrong way for my interests. I’m not going to throw my vote away because the GOP candidate is an embarrassing country club dick that I’ve disliked since Jr Hi. I can live with a little embarrassment in return for a majority that moves Salud’s agenda back and my agenda somewhat forward. So if my friends around the USA were to call and ask why we voted for this entitled cretin, I’d say they were the only two left standing and the dickhead won over the OK guy who was headed the wrong direction. I don’t pick the candidate(s) and unless I were to get involved in the GOP party leadership (which is a huge F and No) I’m going to be stuck voting for the entitled cretin over the astute, hard working, OK guy who the harder he works, the better he is at his job, the worse it gets for me guy.

    Re: nk on embellishment. I get it on whattaboutism, but it is rampant in DC from Biden down to Ogles. By the way, is Ogles bug eyed? That would be unfortunate.

    steveg (245627)

  39. “embellishment is rampant in DC” and am pretty sure that even though Trump certainly has a love for it, he doesn’t crack the top 10 of Presidential embellishers. Trump moved himself into the top 5 of Presidential fraudsters with his post 2020 election nonsense. I was watching a well written TV series where a character is told his partner is a criminal. His response was: “are we talking about heads in a bowling bag or just an asshole?” After losing the election, I think Trump has put in the work to move himself further along on the asshole scale, but still has a way to go before he can catch LBJ

    steveg (245627)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.0908 secs.