Patterico's Pontifications

11/8/2022

Election Night Open Thread

Filed under: General — JVW @ 4:19 pm



[guest post by JVW]

Sorry! Should have put this up earlier. Polls in the East are starting to close (though many will be open until 6:00 pm Pacific Time) and results will slowly start trickling in.

The GOP picked up the House delegate from Guam for the first time since 1993, so clearly they will be winning 35 or so new seats nationally. In the Senate.

Share your thoughts in the comments.

– JVW

256 Responses to “Election Night Open Thread”

  1. Alas, I won’t be available for the next few hours, but I look forward to reading everyone’s observations later tonight.

    JVW (5ae70c)

  2. R.I.P. Jeff Cook, lead guitarist for the group Alabama

    Icy (6f6c2f)

  3. The GOP picked up the House delegate from Guam for the first time since 1993

    What a historic and unprecedented event!

    You know what our real problem is? I’ll tell you what our real problem is. A generation for whom the Universe came into existence with the invention of the iPhone. That’s what our real problem is.

    nk (52edff)

  4. Democrats look to be losing seats in VA.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  5. Walker is running 5 points behind Kemp. Both trail with 31% in.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  6. The last polls had the leftist in Guam winning by double digits. Can we bury them once and for all.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  7. Walker is running 5 points behind Kemp. Both trail with 31% in.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9) — 11/8/2022 @ 5:05 pm

    Yeah, fives alot to make up

    3 top dems in VA losing – Warner’s senate seat is up in 2

    EPWJ (650a62)

  8. You know what our real problem is? I’ll tell you what our real problem is.

    My dad thought it was television.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  9. Two GOP pickups in FL (7 & 13).

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  10. Here’s something I hadn’t known:

    Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) is one of the GOP’s top targets this fall. But it’s unclear if Don Bolduc, who wasn’t Republicans’ first choice to win the primary, can beat her. A retired Army general, Bolduc ran as a 2020 election denier who talked about potentially disbanding the FBI. He is trying to walk back some of these more extreme stances, including saying that after more research into the election he realized Joe Biden was the legitimate winner.

    (Links omitted.)

    Well, I’m glad he did more research.

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  11. Slade Gorton got my vote for US Senator for WA State. I don’t like his chances.
    I voted for one Democrat, for county prosecutor, on the advice of a couple longtime gym rat friends who work there. The rest were unaffiliateds and non-election-denying Republicans. Cavaleri (R) got my vote for the House.
    I also voted to repeal two tax increases passed by the Democrat-majority legislature, including a tax increase on aircraft fuel, in a state that employs over 100k in aircraft manufacture/assembly.
    Disturbingly, there were at least a half-dozen unchallenged positions, mostly judgeships.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  12. CNN Special: Clicking Cluckers!

    Two hen-men in dark suits playing with in the weeds with a computer screen and numbers. Impossible to watch.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  13. We are seeing more evidence that a Day-of strategy is failing in states with significant early/mailin voting.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  14. Paul – I voted for Rob McKenna for senator, but I think your choice is a good one, too.

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  15. Sarah Huckabee Sanders projected to win AR Governor spot.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  16. DeSantis wins; Crist hiz azz.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  17. CNN is really harping on Democrat leads with early votes, as if they will hold that way. I wonder if this will elad to Demcorats thinking the election was “stolen” as an 81% leader ends up losing.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  18. McKenna is solid, and has the benefit of being alive and breathing.
    He was UW class president when I went there, and was an effective state AG.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  19. One pleasant choice: I thought either Democrat Steve Hobbs or Julie Anderson would do a good job as secretary of state, but voted for Anderson, hoping Hobbs will go back in the legislature.
    https://julieanderson.org/
    https://www.electhobbs.com/

    (For those who don’t follow Washington state politics: Anderson is nonpartisan, beating out several Republicans in our top-two primary.)

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  20. I voted for Anderson, Jim. She has experience.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  21. Disturbingly, there were at least a half-dozen unchallenged positions, mostly judgeships.

    Every circuit court judgeship was unchallenged where I’m at. Democrats only. For other offices, Libertarians were the only third party, and I spotted one “Independent”. Green Party is superfluous up here.

    nk (52edff)

  22. Walker still trailing Kemp by 4.5%, but now Kemp is ahead of Abrams 51-48.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  23. @17. Don’t know how you can watch CNN- they go into the weeds and play with their touch screens going back and forth from this cycle to previous cycles. It’s roosters and hens playing click and cluck.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  24. Little Marco gets big win in FL w/kissing Trump butt. Not bad for a guy with a history of never showing up for work.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  25. The Kemp family has been in Georgian politics before Georgia was a State (and for those from Rio Linda, Georgia was one of the original 13 colonies). Kemp has his own dynamic that no other candidate has.

    nk (52edff)

  26. O’Rourke and Abrams are fading.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  27. If trends continue, Walker will win it outright.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  28. OMG- what optics: DeSantis giving victory speech literally with his ‘trophy wife’ next to him: she’s dressed up in gold like an Emmy Award.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  29. Fox projects Abbott beating Beto.

    Hilarious.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  30. I expect more blue states to implement ranked-choice voting and red states to implement Virginia/Georgia-style election laws after tonight to shore up their territories.

    Factory Working Orphan (bce27d)

  31. Still more evidence of growing geographic polarization:

    This year, there are considerably more districts with no Democratic nominee than with no Republican. Specifically, there are 23 House districts with no Democrat on the ballot but 12 with no Republican. Moreover, the districts with no Democratic nominee tend to be more competitive than those with no Republican one, meaning that Democrats are sacrificing more votes.

    (Footnote omitted.)

    Troubling, even allowing for the top-two effects.

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  32. What I would like to see, in no particular order, is for election deniers to lose, for Trump-endorsed candidates to lose, for Ron DeSantis to go full New York on Trump for that Ron de-Sanctimonious crack three days ago.

    Not being a Millennial, I neither expect nor demand a full glass. Half a glass will do.

    nk (52edff)

  33. Broken field running: Fox reports Walker in lead over Warnock; Vance leading over Ryan in Buckeye state.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  34. Maloney losing in NY; Mr.’let them eat Chef Boyardee’ is choking.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  35. CNN reports ‘not a red wave’ — based on lone win: “Spanberger” squeaker in VA.

    “One win?” notes AC?

    Hilarious.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  36. Globalist paramecium coping and seething:

    David Rothschild™
    @RealDRothschild
    Cubans only know how to vote for dictators
    7:07 PM · Nov 8, 2022
    ·Twitter for iPhone

    Factory Working Orphan (bce27d)

  37. Let’s say that the GOP gets a working majority in both Houses. Who do they look to as party leader after tonight? Trump? Or DeSantis?

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  38. #38

    Trump. He can hurt them.

    Appalled (01745c)

  39. The stats on this are so interesting tonight. Who is or who is not overperforming from the presidential election numbers and where.

    Nic (896fdf)

  40. @38. You’ll know next week when he announces his 2024 run.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  41. Mastriano loses in PA

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  42. Bennet wins in CO

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  43. #38 Well, Oz said, in a not-entirely-private conversation, that his leader is Mitch.

    Republican Senator Todd Young in Indiana was not endorsed by Trump, and he is nearly certain to win.

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  44. Trump. He can hurt them.

    DeSantis can help them. He can also give them direction a lot better than Captain Chaos.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  45. Kevin – a sane party would look to DeSantis. *This* party will look to Trump.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  46. Currently, with 154 House seats decided, the Washington Post is showing a net gain of just 2 seats for the Republicans.

    At this point, a Republican tsunami seems unlikely.

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  47. Outside of Florida, which is just different from everywhere else, so far we’re barely seeing a red ripple. The Dems are seriously outperforming expectations.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  48. The NYT has their Needle up, like the one they had two years ago. So far, the House is “leaning” Republican and the Senate is “toss-up”.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  49. The AZ problem could get bad. The day-of vote in Maricopa was slammed by failed voting machines in about 60 polling places. They got them to work after several hours but this would have diminished the day-of vote. Since this was a heavily GOP set of voters, there will be claims that this was intentional and that the election was rigged. It could get nasty as, going in, the GOP campaigns viewed the voting machines as the heart of fraud.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  50. Nic @40 & apharael @48. I have a strong 2020 vibe myself. It’s not on referendum on Biden, it’s a referendum on Trump. And it’s not just me.

    nk (52edff)

  51. Sorry, *aphrael*.

    nk (52edff)

  52. Mastriano loses in PA

    Yes!

    nk (52edff)

  53. In the Maricopa County, which basically had GOP voters stacked up in lines for several hours due to configuration issues with the voting machines, a judge refused to extend voting hours. This is a clustermess that feeds right into the paranoia of the voters there. It would not surprise me if there was an attempt to reject the election results.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  54. @48: The referendum on DeSantis seemed to work out OK.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  55. The judge made the wrong call not extending voting hours in Maricopa county.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  56. The Maricopa elections folks are Republican majority.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  57. But probably not Kari Lake Republicans.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  58. I dislike early voting, but clearly that’s the best way to make sure your vote counts. So I did this time.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  59. Katie Hobbs is winning by 17% in Maricopa County right now, with 53% in. Odd.

    Of course, this might also be an “abortion” vote, with women wanting someone to veto harsh restrictions. That seems to have happened in PA.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  60. To Trump, it’s more important to him that a “disloyal” Republican lost than a Democrat won.
    Trump over country and party.
    So far, the Batsh-t Wing of my party has had mixed results. Cox lost the governor’s race in MD, and Bolduc lost in NH.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  61. In Washington’s 3rd district, election denier Joe Kent is currently losing to Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 53-47, with an estimated 65 percent of the votes counted.
    (Kent narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler in the top-two primary, after she voted to impeach Trump.)

    In Washington’s 4th district, Republican Dan Newhouse is sailing to an easy win, though he, too, voted to impeach the loser.

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  62. Someone was talking about the Dem bench earlier. I’ve now seen two Josh Shapiro speeches and, barring scandal, I think he might be one to keep an eye on. He sounds really good and while he looks kind of like a nerdy potato-head in pictures, he has something when he’s speaking.

    Nic (896fdf)

  63. I think we can say the Wave didn’t happen. Do we blame Trump or Alito?

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  64. Evers and Whitmer might owe third party candidates some beer.

    Hassan beat Bolduc

    Illinois kept it’s Chicago suburban collar counties D.

    NWI kept it’s Dem. In a weird way, I wouldn’t have minded a streak of Black Repub reps stretching from Hammond IN to the western suburbs and of Detroit, but alas

    Mayra Flores down, this plus Yesli Vega losing means the Latino GOP sabor is still largely Cubano/a

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  65. I also think that DeSantis has no choice but to take on Trump now. He has no future otherwise — he can’t wait for 2028.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  66. Hassan beat Bolduc

    Yes! And he’s not even pretty like Kari Lake.

    nk (52edff)

  67. I think we can say the Wave didn’t happen. Do we blame Trump or Alito?

    don’t we normally blame the voters, like in wyoming?

    JF (ff1d9c)

  68. Apparently in some polling places in Clark County, machines ran out of paper and had to be replaced, causing two hour long delays. Cortez-Masto has sued to keep the polls open, which fair enough; she should win just like Lake should have won in her lawsuit.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  69. @Kevin@64 I think we could at the Governor’s races. If the Ds pick up governors, I think it’s definitely Alito that would be to blame.

    Nic (896fdf)

  70. *could look at

    Nic (896fdf)

  71. 46-46 in the Senate now.

    Dems will get HI and probably AZ.
    GOP will get AK and probably UT. They lead in WI.

    This would make it 48D-49R.

    This leaves PA, GA and NV. Best 2 out of 3.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  72. @70: Maybe more so, but don’t discount Trump’s toxicity. PA, for example.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  73. she should win just like Lake should have won in her lawsuit.

    But we know how this goes.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  74. AZ is really strange. I’m beginning to think that the Phoenix problems will mean a flood of late GOP votes. Apparently there is some issue over which votes have been tabulated as “tabulation” was the earlier issue — the machines printed out ballots that were not recognized by the tabulators.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  75. given what i’ve seen, PA is a lock for fetterman at this point, so it comes down to GA and NV.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  76. Cortez-Masto has lost her lawsuit to force polls to stay open in Clark County.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  77. Another weirdo goes… dinosaur incumbent Marcy Kaptur beats back Trumpy Lawn guy Majewski in the Toledo area seat

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  78. Another batsh-tter goes down, this one the MI SecState race.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  79. I also think that DeSantis has no choice but to take on Trump now. He has no future otherwise — he can’t wait for 2028.

    Given the underwhelming results for the GOP so far- that’s likely. Or a coattail ride as his VEEP. Not a promising scenario for my Nikki. And the results- well, ‘here’s the deal’: if they play out as it is looking, won’t jolt Joey out of a run. The GOP should have rolled this tonight- so ‘leadership’ issues remain.

    Still, on the upside- bye-bye Nancy.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  80. Smiley will not be smiling, Paul and Jim

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  81. Looks like democrats retain the house and senate

    EPWJ (650a62)

  82. Dead heat for LA Mayor. 11% of the vote in.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  83. Alito shmalito. There was already an anti-Roe majority on the Court in November, 2020. It’s all Trump. He’s a loser and his loserness in infectious. Sammy put it right a while back: He has reverse coattails.

    nk (52edff)

  84. It’s unlikely that the Dems hold the House. If they do, there is no further point in fearing Trump. What could he do that he hasn’t done?

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  85. He has reverse coattails.

    I’d call them sh1ttails.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  86. Winning Powerball ticket ($2.04 billion) sold in Altadena, CA.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  87. Dems lost the House when the 2020 Census was released.

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  88. Batsh-t also lost to Whitmer for MI governor.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  89. kevin,

    22 seats we lost that should have won… yeah 2 more years well 8 more years of Dem control

    Hope I’m wrong….

    EPWJ (650a62)

  90. Tudor Dixon is reluctant Batsprit… probably more of a sus Betsy DeVos clone, as former poster Narciso would surmise

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  91. People are still on covid unemployment, we expanded voting to people who never ever could be bothered to vote – guess which way they’d vote.

    EPWJ (650a62)

  92. And it looks like a Democrat will replace Peter Meijer in MI-3, against the Trump-endorsed John Gibbs.

    nk (52edff)

  93. If true, nk…lots of crotchety ol rayciss’ in Michiana.

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  94. …the air force black lady in NW Indiana lost as well.

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  95. The fissure in the GOP is gonna be epic: one side saying “Trump’s a loser and DeSantis is the only way forward” and the other side saying “Trump is all that has been holding our party together and without him the Dems would have 260 seats in the House and 60 seats in the Senate.” You guys can probably guess where I fall on that divide.

    JVW (15c733)

  96. Warnock takes small lead with 89% in, but still at 49.0 with Walker at 48.9…runoff likely with stubborn Libertarian 2%

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  97. Could the Twitter layoffs and the Musk redpilling of it also be a cringe factor?

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  98. Dayam.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  99. @96: More Cowbell Batsh1t!

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  100. Libertarians: Electing Socialists since 1972!

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  101. A few days ago I suggested that this could end up like 1998, a “wave” year that backfired. Sadly….

    As for those who think we somehow saved democracy here, well, enjoy your chimera.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  102. “saved” would be an overstatement. “repulsed this particular attack without fixing the problems that are leaving us vulnerable to attacks” is more accurate.

    still, we only have to lose on this once, and it looks like we aren’t losing on it this time around, so that’s good news; we survive to fight another day.

    hopefully the dem leadership can figure out why something that shouldn’t even be close *is*, and fix it.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  103. “People are still on covid unemployment”

    Not only was that program ended over a year ago, we are at historically low unemployment rates.

    Davethulhu (02f479)

  104. Oh, and all that garbage I wrote the other day about how Joe Manchin missed his chance to switch parties and gain some enormous concessions from Cocaine Mitch for doing so? Looks like all of that is back in play, so the Senator from West Virginia is looking like a genius yet agin.

    JVW (15c733)

  105. @96: Some GOP deniers lost their seats, and the others may have noticed.

    OTOH: The AZ numbers have stalled at 53% for over an hour. Anyone know what’s up with that?

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  106. We lost the midwest, thats why the wave didnt happen – also too much cheerleading – people stayed home thinking it was in the bag

    too much weed, too much welfare –

    We recruited a prism of beautifully seasoned honorable candidates, who put their life on hold, and they lost – they were told there was a chance and there wasn’t

    EPWJ (650a62)

  107. still, we only have to lose on this once, and it looks like we aren’t losing on it this time around, so that’s good news; we survive to fight another day.

    A phantom menace.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  108. Well, counting has stopped a lot o/f places. I’m gonna check back in the morning.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  109. Silver lining? Gavin Newsom, Kathy Hochul, and J.B. Pritzker are going to be the incumbent governors leading their states through the recession, and there might be just enough Republicans in Washington to prevent the Biden Administration from sending the states more funny money to paper over the holes in their budgets. Lots of luck to them. Let the tax-and-spenders tells us how they are going to balance the books.

    JVW (15c733)

  110. It baffles me that you don’t there is a menace in elected officials who openly proclaim they would refuse to certify the results of an election citing vague claims of fraud that are supported by zero evidence.

    Openly attempting to deligitimize the system like that is a *far* way down the road to the fall of the republic.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  111. FOX calls PA race for Fetterman over Oz. Unreal.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  112. Ms. McCain has a point about all batsh-t in AZ.

    One small idea would be to stop sh-tting on my family when you’re running for office in Arizona.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  113. Oz was a terrible candidate, DCSCA, with weak ties (at best) to the state, very easy to portray as an out of touch wealthy elitist carpetbagger.

    The state Republicans own that loss, as they do Mastriano’s.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  114. Fetterman should do the horable thing after SOTU and resign for Conor Lamb.

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  115. Nevada will be interesting, I’ll just say the first of the ballots might be from the Strip hotels

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  116. Fetterman; Biden… Americans are doing their best to elect their worst.

    Meet the next Majority Leader of the United States Senate:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOHMg7IkzHU&t=3s

    … and Putin smiled.
    Xi laughed.

    Then Kim chortled, ‘and now for something completely different.’

    DCSCA (da0134)

  117. @114. aphrael: as the Japanese wrote on their Technics turntable spec sheets;

    KEY FEATURE: His brain works.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  118. from 40 seats to minus 4 – last time I ever read a poll

    EPWJ (650a62)

  119. The batsh-tters and DC lost tonite.
    The narrower-than-expected win in the House and tossup in the Senate will mean that the military aid will keep flowing to Ukraine, which means that a fraction of our military budget will continue to shred Putin’s once-vaunted army.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  120. Paul

    We lost the house we had to pickup 5 seats as it stands we are going to be down 1 to 3

    Pelosi is still in charge – with a slightly bigger majority

    I could be wrong – but we lost every close race in the house there are several GOP held seats still out and behind////

    EPWJ (650a62)

  121. epwj, it’s still too close to write the house off. currently only six seats have flipped, five for the reps and one for the dem (so a net rep +4). lots of races still undeclared.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  122. Fetterman will now resign and let the Dem governor appoint a new Senator.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  123. The polls were so way wrong it’s funny.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  124. Where is the red tsunami? Abortion rights winning everywhere though close in kentucky. I said supreme court ruling on abortion would bring out democrats. Then media polling fooled me I guess to scare democrats to get out and vote. Abortion trumps trump! At least sean patrick maloney that slime pos is going down to defeat. RethugliKKKans please win enough seats to take the house so nancy will get on her broom and fly back to cali.

    asset (e4fdd4)

  125. SO, right now RCP has it as 48D-47R. I think you have to add AK to that, so 48-48.

    Johnson leads by 2 in WI, so that’s not lost yet. GA is undecided until December. So, NV and AZ. Both of which show big dem leads, but Day-of vote to be counted. Hard to say. It’s looking a lot like 50-50 again.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  126. I want to hear Mitch McConnell’s comments tomorrow.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  127. hard to poll accurately when there’s a significant movement in a part of the population that ignores phone calls and doesn’t trust pollsters.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  128. Mccarthy saying that he would cut social security and medicare and ron johnson saying he would sunset scared a lot of voters. Thanks for the help economic libertarian conservatives in defeating populist rethugs!

    asset (e4fdd4)

  129. We lost the house we had to pickup 5 seats as it stands we are going to be down 1 to 3

    Pelosi is still in charge – with a slightly bigger majority

    I could be wrong – but we lost every close race in the house there are several GOP held seats still out and behind////

    EPWJ (650a62) — 11/8/2022 @ 10:31 pm

    Relax. You didn’t lose. The NY Time needle gives the GOP an 84% chance of taking the House. Senate is still a toss up.

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  130. My bet is it’s 50-49 when the dust settles, and then the demoralized conservatives don’t come out for the GA runoff so it ends up 51-49. There’s a chance Laxalt could pull it off but I think it’s clear that Kelly has it in AZ.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  131. Fetterman will now resign and let the Dem governor appoint a new Senator.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9) — 11/8/2022 @ 10:36 pm

    I’ll be you 100 imaginary dollars that doesn’t happen.

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  132. There’s no excuse for the GOP blowing this anyplace. How they screwed this up is just mind boggling.

    They’ve rewarded the folks who keep failing upward. It’s as if America just endorsed the policies of Jimmy Carter for high inflation, fuel shortages, general malaise, hostage and the military misadventure of Desert One and cheering being less better off than you were two years ago.

    Nobody in either party running this government knows what the hell they’re doing.

    Polling is dead. Look at the folks who did win; Ohio’s DeWine; Florida’s DeSantis… the Republican Party is in serious need of tossing out the deadwood. And learning how to conduct polling in the 21str century…

    DCSCA (da0134)

  133. @133 ABORTION and if that was not enough the cherry on top Mccarthy saying he would cut social security and medicare by holding debt ceiling hostage then ron johnson saying he would sunset them.

    asset (e4fdd4)

  134. @128. hard to poll accurately when there’s a significant movement in a part of the population that ignores phone calls and doesn’t trust pollsters.

    Then why spend millions of donated dollars on consultants and polling firms– and why does our media use it to fill their air time with tarot cared, soothsayer guesswork; it’s all a racket. All the more reason to flush these parties clean. Getting it this wrong over and over should tell you something.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  135. My bet is it’s 50-49 when the dust settles, and then the demoralized conservatives don’t come out for the GA runoff so it ends up 51-49. There’s a chance Laxalt could pull it off but I think it’s clear that Kelly has it in AZ.

    I’m not so sure. There is a big delay in counting day-of votes in AZ. They royally screwed things up in red Phoenix and a lot of ballots have to be hand tabulated. AZ could still surprise.

    Similarly, day-of voting, a Trumpian passion, could change the results in NV as well. I think you’re right about GA though.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  136. Let me be the first to reiterate that insisting that your voters all go to the polls day-of is beyond belief stupid. I’m going to bet that DeSantis encouraged early voting and mail voting.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  137. Fox only has the House count now at 163 D and 193 R. McCarthy just babbled, live, about taking back the House at 2 AM and still no R majority. Just a stunning display of incompetence.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  138. Elections like this is why I stopped making predictions years ago (more accurately, tried to stop making predictions), and it started when I confidently stated that there was no way Trump had a chance after his Golden Escalator speech, when he said that “some [Mexicans], I assume, are good people”.

    The happiest Republican tonite is Kevin McCarthy, until he has to start wrangling his caucus while kissing Trump’s soft white butt. My guess is that this will be 82-year old Pelosi’s final term in office. It’s time for her to pass the torch.

    One other thing. There will likely be a Senate runoff in Georgia, which means the Dems will have an additional month to dig up even more dirt on an already dirty Herschel. I expect turnout will be tremendous, all around.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  139. If there’s a Georgia runoff, do we think Herschel Walker sticks around to keep campaigning, or goes home in disgust? He doesn’t seem really passionate.

    Nic (896fdf)

  140. Ominous sign for conservatives, encapsulated in this headline:

    Fox Exit Poll Finds Majority of Electorate Wants Government to Do More

    If that’s true, then we’ve lost.

    JVW (15c733)

  141. My guess is that this will be 82-year old Pelosi’s final term in office. It’s time for her to pass the torch.

    I’m guessing she’s going to resign her seat. Word has it that she only ran this time around because (1) she didn’t want to make it look like she thought Democrats would lose the House and (2) she’s trying to install her daughter in her seat and thinks that a special election would be more conducive to that result than a general election.

    JVW (15c733)

  142. I’m going to bet that DeSantis encouraged early voting and mail voting.

    You bet he did. Republicans actually bested Democrats in early voting in Miami-Dade County, which really suggests that the Florida GOP has it going on.

    JVW (15c733)

  143. @140. He’ll play all 4 quarters.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  144. @143. It explains Fetterman’s win. Lots of early voting, pre-debate debacle, when reality hit home.

    But you gotta question the selfishness of a political party running a clearly cognitively damaged soul for a six year gig in the most deliberate body in government. And the sanity of a state electorate that votes him in. Literally, part of his mind is gone. It’s madness– and just a very sorry thing to see.

    DCSCA (da0134)

  145. @141 JVW, smaller government, personal responsibility, and limited government power is long gone as a GOP goal. The Dems never wanted it and MAGA wants a big government that will push their cultural issues.

    We now have 2 parties fighting for control of big government.

    Bums me out.

    Time123 (bae8d4)

  146. But, for some good news Brand Rafsenperger has won re-election as GA sec state.

    Time123 (bae8d4)

  147. We now have 2 parties fighting for control of big government.

    Bums me out.
    Time123 (bae8d4) — 11/9/2022 @ 3:09 am

    That is true. The spirit of this political age is:

    “The spice must flow!”

    felipe (484255)

  148. Arizona looks to be completely stolen by the Secretary of State who is in charge of elections. But keep pretending it’s Republicans that are the danger.

    You get to vote yourself socialism once. Then it’s over.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  149. As asset might more eloquently put it, “now you know how Stacey Abrams felt in 2018”. There oughta be an… amendment. Or state laws limiting or barring SOS from seeking higher state offices in elections during their 4 year Jan 1 to Jan 1 term.

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  150. Oh good, conspiracy theories have started.

    I look forward to the people concerned about this brining good evidence and modifying their position as more facts are learned. Just like they did when copious evidence refuted their silly claims about 2020. /snark

    Time123 (bae8d4)

  151. The current headline over at Political Betting is “THE BIG MIDTERMS LOSER – ONE DONALD TRUMP”.

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  152. Arizona looks to be completely stolen by the Secretary of State who is in charge of elections. But keep pretending it’s Republicans that are the danger.

    https://elections.maricopa.gov

    Welcome to the Maricopa County Elections Department. We’re here to help you be ballot ready for upcoming elections in Maricopa County. Supported by the Board of Supervisors and Recorder’s Office, we administer city, town, school district, special district, state and federal elections in Maricopa County, the second largest voting jurisdiction in the country.

    If there was sabotage, it was by Maricopa County election workers. And before you go there, ask when was the last time that Kelli Ward won an election as head of the
    Arizona GOP. She’s as worthless a loudmouth loser as her pet orange is.

    nk (52edff)

  153. Kari Lake vids stated appearing on my YouTube shorts feed over the weekend, don’t rule the sheer annoyance factor out. Also, the 3rd bad Meg had a sad which probably soured Scottsdale.

    urbanleftbehind (ba1f92)

  154. You probably thought I was joking:

    Overheard in Arizona:
    — There’s a problem with the voting machines.
    — Can’t we fix them?
    — That’s the problem.

    So they resorted to breaking them altogether, disenfranchising voters of all persuasion, creating chaos, and fueling denialism.

    nk (52edff)

  155. But I’ll let Arizona’s antics harsh NJRob’s mellow (if he wants his mellow harshed), not mine. I am content. Very content.

    Like I said a while back, Trump does not get things done. He bets that things will get done. And he lost most of his bets. Again.

    nk (52edff)

  156. You bet he did. Republicans actually bested Democrats in early voting in Miami-Dade County, which really suggests that the Florida GOP has it going on.

    JVW (15c733) — 11/9/2022 @ 12:30 am

    He’s looking like the GOP’s best bet going forward. Florida used to be an absolute cluster for years, with voting totals often delayed well into the night or even in the following days, and now it’s getting called within about an hour of the primetime TV period in 2020 and 2022. That can be attributed to DeSantis’ ground game, drive, and organizational ability. He also likely benefitted greatly from COVID refugees coming down from New York and New Jersey the last two years.

    Trump was going to get killed if he ran in 2024 regardless, and last night just confirmed that DeSantis, and possibly Kemp as well, are going to have to take precedence if the GOP wants a shot at actually winning.

    The best news from last night is that Bobby O’Rourke and Stacey Abrams should be effectively finished now as viable candidates going forward, assuming Warnock wins what’s looking to be a runoff election against Walker.

    Factory Working Orphan (bce27d)

  157. To the surprise of no red blooded male on either side of the Rockies…

    Down Goes Boebert

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  158. Kemp would truly be our age’s Machiavelli if he ended up in the WH.

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  159. hard to poll accurately when there’s a significant movement in a part of the population that ignores phone calls and doesn’t trust pollsters.
    aphrael (4c4719) — 11/8/2022 @ 10:45 pm

    those kind of people are also likely to be the ones who won’t vote unless a ballot is handed to them and they have thirty days to fill it out

    looks like we’ve handed them the keys

    JF (445e4a)

  160. …or the left has learned to chingar con los pollsters the way Michael Moore warned us about for 2016

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  161. Washington Post columnist Henry Olsen is probably not celebrating this morning:

    Tuesday’s midterm elections could be a continuation of that political trench warfare. Inflation, crime, progressive attempts at overreach and a general sense that President Biden is not up to the job will likely deliver a surprisingly large victory to Republicans. I predict the GOP will win the national popular vote by about 5.5 points, likely gaining between 31 and 40 House seats in the process. I also expect it will retake control of the Senate, gaining two to four seats.

    I’ll be looking for his follow-up.

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  162. Down Goes Boebert

    And after she done went and got her GED too. It’s a real shame. Trailer folk need representation too.

    It’s funny. Boebert never graduated high school because she got pregnant in her senior year, while Josh Hawley is a graduate of Stanford University and Yale Law School, and the kindest thing you can say about either of them is that their ambition far exceeds their accomplishments.

    nk (52edff)

  163. Banana-fana Fo fert.

    “their ambition far exceeds their accomplishments.”

    That should be engraved over the entrance of the capitol building.

    JRH (941528)

  164. Arizona looks to be completely stolen by the Secretary of State who is in charge of elections.

    Rubbish. Counties run elections, and Maricopa is controlled by the GOP.
    Ms. Lake turned out to be a better vacuumer than candidate.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  165. If you need federal troops to sort out the mess for AZ governor, it might also be good optics -regardless of who it’s decided for- to keep them in the extreme southern parts of the state afterward

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  166. From The Dispatch.

    Turns out candidate quality might matter after all.
    Sen. Mitch McConnell in August expressed doubts about the GOP’s chances of taking back the Senate, citing “candidate quality” as a major reason why Democrats could retain control of the chamber. He’d been thwarted by this phenomenon before, like when Todd Akin, Christine O’Donnell, Sharron Angle, and Richard Mourdock managed to lose eminently winnable races in 2010 and 2012. McConnell didn’t specifically name Herschel Walker, Blake Masters, Don Bolduc, and Dr. Mehmet Oz as examples of what he meant this time around—but he didn’t have to.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  167. Seems pretty clear that MAGA candidates lose more then their GOP counterparts.

    Time123 (bae8d4)

  168. We now have 2 parties fighting for control of big government.

    It’s been that was since Hastert took over the speakership. Romney/Ryan might have had other ideas, but for the most part it’s been about who gets more sailboats.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  169. @150: Some states have resign-to-run laws. Including AZ. Generally, filing nomination papers for an office whose term overlaps the current term requires a resignation.

    Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii and Texas. Details

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  170. She’s as worthless a loudmouth loser as her pet orange is

    Yes, but when has that been a disqualification for office. I submit Seattle and Portland as evidence.

    Looking at what happened, a single technical poll worker could have configured poll machines to print extra light. Probably just a number in the config.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  171. BTW, both AZ races are now neck and neck and Laxalt is ahead, with lots of votes to still count. Told you so @136.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  172. As a traditionalist, I am disappointed that Kari Lake didn’t offer to polish Trump’s shoes.

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  173. The Washington Post says: “According to our model, Lake is behind in the vote count, but slightly favored to win after all votes are counted. Hobbs still has a chance.”

    The Post also thinks the Senate race is close: “According to our model, Kelly is slightly favored to win, but Masters still has a chance.”

    (As I understand it, their models use samples of representative precincts. I don’t know enough about the models to judge their accuracy.)

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  174. In Nevada, the Post says: “According to our model, Cortez Masto is behind in the vote count, but slightly favored to win after all votes are counted. Laxalt still has a chance.”

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  175. Kelly will outpace Hobbs by 2 pts and, if he wakes it out, will end up being another example of Da#n the Libertarian.

    urbanleftbehind (153056)

  176. Another major development happened on Election Day.

    Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered his troops to retreat to the Dnipro river’s right bank – meaning they are surrendering Kherson, the only provincial capital captured during the invasion.

    This had been coming, but is a *huge* setback.

    If the Ukrainians can move on from Kherson and reclaim Melitopol, the Crimean peninsula will be cut off the mainland and no longer be under Putin’s boot. He could well lose his naval base at Sevastopol. Big stuff.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  177. Paul

    thats great news!

    EPWJ (650a62)

  178. Jim, there is also day-of vs early voting. This is a big factor in AZ, and in Trumpland in general.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  179. As of now, the GOP has 49 Senate seats, with NV, GA and AZ left.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  180. It looks like the Trumpian denier in NM-2 will lose. Her seat was gerrymandered a bit, adding a bit of ABQ and removing a goodly portion of the oil patch (putting that in the safe Santa Fe/Navajo district). It’s too bad in a way, as she was a fair representative of her mostly-desert district.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  181. Who has Trump blamed?

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  182. Reading that several states, such as MI say the legislature flip from R to D last night. That’s not great. The MI GOP stood strong in the face of Trumps efforts to steal the election, Whitmere is an imbecile, and I doubt this will work out well.

    Time123 (bae8d4)

  183. Good summary my mcardle. https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1590329291245502467?s=46&t=A314IdHUZG_YK3BvEMk7MQ

    Lessons for the GOP:

    1) Trump doesn’t care about winning elections, except his.
    2) He prefers bad candidates who appease him to good candidates who acknowledge he lost in 2020.
    3) His brand helps in primaries and hurts in generals
    4) He’ll keep doing this until forcibly stopped.

    Time123 (bae8d4)

  184. Thank you, American voters, for rejecting Trump’s minions.

    DRJ (4653e0)

  185. Ominous sign for conservatives, encapsulated in this headline:

    Fox Exit Poll Finds Majority of Electorate Wants Government to Do More

    If that’s true, then we’ve lost.

    JVW (15c733) — 11/9/2022 @ 12:24 am

    That’s been true for a long time. Different interest groups want government to do more for them, there is no constituency for having government do less.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  186. It’s the economy Trump, stupid!

    nk (52edff)

  187. Who has Trump blamed?

    Certainly not himself. Again from The Dispatch.

    Let’s talk about the guy who saddled the GOP with many of these lousy candidates. With a few high-profile exceptions, Donald Trump was able to usher the vast majority of his chosen candidates through Republican primaries. Many of them—Don Bolduc, Doug Mastriano, Mehmet Oz, Tudor Dixon, Tim Michels—faceplanted once they got to the general, but Trump doesn’t want you to focus on that. “I think if [Republicans] win, I should get all the credit,” he said in an interview yesterday. “If they lose, I should not be blamed at all.”

    It’s funny that Trump says out loud the things Bill Clinton did but never confessed. In a weird way, Trump’s outrageous statements remind me of Melvin Udall explaining how he wrote women so well.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  188. Regarding the AZ voting machines, the hyperbole and hysterics are unfounded.

    There was a widespread voting machine error in Maricopa County, the largest county in the state, that affected 60 of the county’s 223 voting locations early on Election Day. Maricopa officials said they discovered the error was not in the tabulating machines, but in the printers producing the ballots—insufficient ink was being used, prompting the tabulator to reject them. Rejected ballots were put in a lockbox attached to the tabulating machines to ensure that they were counted later, and voting officials encouraged voters to go to other locations if they were uncomfortable with voting in this manner.

    After reviewing the situation in Maricopa, a senior Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency official said in a briefing that there was no reason to believe there was any election interference at play with the malfunctions: “We’ve seen no activity that should cause anyone to question the security, integrity, or resilience of our election infrastructure.”

    There is, in short, no evidence to suggest that what occurred in Maricopa County was anything other than a machine error nor that there is any reason to believe that the error will prevent any ballots from being counted.

    Another case of Hanlon’s Razor.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  189. Another major development happened on Election Day.

    Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered his troops to retreat to the Dnipro river’s right bank – meaning they are surrendering Kherson, the only provincial capital captured during the invasion.

    This had been coming, but is a *huge* setback.

    If the Ukrainians can move on from Kherson and reclaim Melitopol, the Crimean peninsula will be cut off the mainland and no longer be under Putin’s boot. He could well lose his naval base at Sevastopol. Big stuff.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8) — 11/9/2022 @ 8:19 am

    Ukraine is looking at the Russian gift horse in the mouth:

    Ukraine had warned that Russia might try to feign a retreat in hopes of drawing Ukraine into urban combat.

    The military had been tracking signs of a Russian retreat through Wednesday but was not convinced the Russian military intended to fully withdraw from Kherson City and the surrounding Russian bridgehead on the western bank of the Dnipro River, according to Roman Kostenko, a colonel in the army and chairman of the defense and intelligence committee in Ukraine’s Parliament.
    …….
    Ukrainian intelligence agencies were working to assess Russia’s movements, he said, and noted that the Russian announcement could be misdirection.
    ………
    Earlier on Wednesday, before Mr. Shoigu announced the withdrawal, Russian state media reported the death of a deputy head of the occupation government in the Kherson region, Kyrylo Stremousov, who had been outspoken about Russia’s deteriorating military positions on the western bank of the river.

    The Russian state news agencies Tass and RIA Novosti reported Mr. Stremousov had died in a car crash on Wednesday.
    ………

    I wouldn’t be surprised once Ukraine occupied Kherson the Russians would detonate a dirty bomb in revenge. Take heed of Adm. Ackbar’s warning!

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  190. https://www.politico.com/2022-election/results/trump-candidates-endorsements-11-8-22/

    Amid a sea of safe choices, the former president backed some candidates that could deeply dent his endorsement reputation. Here’s how they’re doing. [Last updated: Nov. 9, 2022 9:49 a.m. PST]

    The Senate: Trump’s preferred Senate candidates have won in Ohio and North Carolina, while Johnson eked out a win in Wisconsin. But in the contests that really put his endorsement power to the test — Georgia’s upcoming runoff among them — decisive victories are still far out of reach.

    The House: By stacking the endorsements deck in his favor with plenty of incumbents and open seat races, Trump’s fingerprints are all over the House races. But even as vote counts continue to roll in, he already notched more definitive losses than wins last night — and the remaining races still show slim margins.
    ___________

    The top seller: Trump Lite… Ron DeSantis.

    Everything you always wanted in a beer. And less.

    DCSCA (43bc55)

  191. @191. Take heed of Adm. Ackbar’s warning!

    Take heed of ‘Adm. Xi Jinping’ instead.

    He has told Vlad how the Russian cow will eat the cabbage.

    DCSCA (43bc55)

  192. NJRob, want to Correct your assertion of fraud based on the news information Paul provided in 190?

    Time123 (bae8d4)

  193. DCSCA —

    Good slogan for DeSantis. May even be a winner in 2024. It’s been years since I even though of a Lite Beer from Miller.

    Of course, restated, the slogan means “The Buzz without the Ugly Fat”.

    Also descriptive.

    Appalled (a9dea9)

  194. Fair point, Rip, that Shoigu could be lying and setting a trap for a dirty bomb, which would be a new low for Putin.
    Nevertheless, Ukrainians have been steadily advancing. It’s only a matter of time, IMO.

    BTW, back to the election, blame could be placed on Trump for sitting on his $92 million SaveAmerica PAC war chest and not spending it on helping his candidates cross the finish line.
    McConnell and his PACs spent almost a quarter billion on seven GOP candidates and Trump spent a relative pittance.

    McConnell-aligned super PACs — including SLF, American Crossroads and Faith & Power PAC — have invested a whopping $238 million so far in seven key Senate races. How much has Donald Trump spent? He has raised an eye-watering $161 million this election cycle. But his super PAC, Make America Great Again, Inc., has spent a grand total of … $14.8 million on Senate races. To put that in perspective, MAGA Inc.’s total spending across the country is less than McConnell-aligned PACs have spent in any individual race in which they are engaged.

    Thiessen provides Ohio as a case study:

    Take Ohio, where Trump’s endorsement helped J.D. Vance win the Republican nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by Rob Portman (R). After Labor Day, Vance was in deep trouble. His second quarter FEC report showed he had just over $600,000 cash on hand, and significant primary debt. He was statistically tied in a race for a seat that Portman had won by more than 20 points. His Democratic opponent, Rep. Tim Ryan, was driving up Vance’s negatives — and he had no money to respond.

    McConnell-affiliated PACs stepped in big time. They spent $32 million supporting Vance, who has managed to raise just $6.9 million on his own — compared with $44 million raised by his opponent. Thanks to McConnell’s help, Vance has eked out a 2.3-point lead in the FiveThirtyEight average — far behind Ohio’s Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, who is leading his Democratic opponent by 19 points and thus requires no massive super PAC bailout.

    How much has Trump spent to help Vance? A lousy $2.3 million — a pittance in a state with several expensive media markets. If Vance pulls out a victory, he will have McConnell to thank.

    In his column, Thiessen describes the same pattern in North Carolina (where McConnell-aligned groups have spent $38 million vs. $0 from Trump’s PAC), Pennsylvania (McConnell’s $57 million to Trump’s $3.4 million), Wisconsin (McConnell’s $24 million to Trump’s $0), Georgia (McConnell’s $38 million to Trump’s $3.4 million), Nevada ($26 million vs. $2 million), and New Hampshire ($16 million vs. $0).

    This could explain why Vance didn’t mention Trump in his victory speech.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  195. Paul, the biggest tabulator error in 2020 ended up being caused by a combination or machine cleanliness, old equipment and a folding machine putting a crease in the wrong spot.

    The error impact several hundred votes, but didn’t change any of the outcomes.

    https://www.wmur.com/article/windham-election-auditors-confirm-folding-machine-issue-root-cause-of-discrepancy-between-vote-recount-totals/37012306

    Time123 (bae8d4)

  196. @183. Who has Trump blamed?

    He lost two years ago, not on the ballot and living rent-free in way too many heads. Might as well blame AuH20, The Big Dick— and always, The Gipper [ 😉 ] The blame- if you want to assign any- lay w/t successful D strategy of funding questionable GOP candidates for primary wins so their own weak candidates had an easier path to a win. And the GOP for poorly countering same; cratering Roe V. Wade before the midterms and failing to muzzle Graham on abortion issues– along w/Rick Scott for touting torpedoing SS and Medicare/Medicaid. Then garnish w/paying for and relying on clearly and repeatedly flawed polling processes.

    It’s a joy to see American voters embracing high inflation, fuel shortages aggravated by OPEC’s whims, a general malaise, silly wind and solar futures, being ‘held hostage’ to military misadventures and so on– all led by a weak, self-proclaimed pious POTUS… and cheering being less better off than you were two years ago.

    … and Jimmy Carter smiled.

    DCSCA (43bc55)

  197. Odd result: Early/mail ballots in AZ were evenly split — 37% of Dem and 38% of GOP cast early or mail ballots. In CA the split was 51% D to 28% R.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/arizona-results
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/california-results

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  198. Reading that several states, such as MI say the legislature flip from R to D last night.

    Collateral damage in the quest for righteousness.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  199. Zero chance Time.

    Deliberate sabotage. No surprised you’d excuse it coming from the left, but demand the imprisonment of all if it came from the right.

    Enjoy Mastodon.

    NJRob (440694)

  200. You are stuck in the 70’s.

    DRJ (4653e0)

  201. @195. Last night in a word, Appalled:

    Carterrific!

    DCSCA (43bc55)

  202. @185: And forcibly stopped he will be. He is running out of people who care what happens to him.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  203. @202. Joey’s America clearly is: history rhymes.

    DCSCA (43bc55)

  204. There is, in short, no evidence to suggest that what occurred in Maricopa County was anything other than a machine error nor that there is any reason to believe that the error will prevent any ballots from being counted.

    The same malfunction in dozens of machines is a software configuration issue. It’s not that all the machines were dropped the same way. Some number was set to 1 when it should have been 5. It’s quite correct to say that this was not a conspiracy or network attack, but I have no idea how they discount a disaffected individual from doing this on purpose.

    If it was done by someone, that someone will be found and paraded before all the cameras, of course.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  205. @201, the rejected ballots were collected for hand count. What was Sabotaged?

    Time123 (bae8d4)

  206. Fox News reports Georgia Senate race will definitely go to a run-off in December.

    “It ain’t over ’til it’s over.” – Yogi Berra

    DCSCA (43bc55)

  207. Hollywood’s dream ticket: Abrams/O’Rourke 2024

    DCSCA (43bc55)

  208. That’s been true for a long time. Different interest groups want government to do more for them, there is no constituency for having government do less.

    I’d settle for a lower percentage of harmful activity.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  209. the rejected ballots were collected for hand count. What was Sabotaged?

    The voting machine printers were set to a very light print setting, and the tabulators could not read them. Sure, the hand counts will probably deal with that, but not every voter was able to wait through the 3-hour delays at the polls that this caused.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  210. Trump likes Yes-men. The voters do not.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  211. @211, I think we should in general have faster voting. The lines are a problem. But, a several hour wait isn’t out of line with what’s common in a lot of areas.

    Also, unless I’m misreading, voters didn’t have to wait to have theirs auto read. They could leave their ballot in the drop box.

    Time123 (bae8d4)

  212. Rip/Paul:

    Keep in mind, given the slim margin of the likely House win, that McCarthy still has to be voted in as Speaker by his party. There’s already chatter of alternative candidates– and, per CNN, McCarthy is already trying to whip support for a vote- and there are a significant number of members in his GOP caucus on record opposing financial aid to Ukraine- certainly w/o any accountability for same. So they have leverage to bargain with – and will exercise it for influence and more power. Plus or minus a few poat midterms, McCarthy will have to bargain with his own caucus to secure the speakership. And if he has to throw Ukraine under the bus – even a little for the gig, he’ll do it. Ukrainians aren’t Americans – and don’t vote in the House.

    Full List of 57 House Republicans Who Voted Against Ukraine Aid

    https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-57-house-republicans-voted-against-ukraine-aid-1705463

    DCSCA (43bc55)

  213. DC, McCarthy is such a pathetic leader that the GOP caucus may opt for Scalise as Speaker.
    As for Ukraine, a solid a majority of Democrats and Republicans favor aid. You lose.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  214. @215. Scalise just said in an interview on Fox News he would not challenge McCarthy and backs his run for the speakership. As for Ukraine- it’s the caucus count that matters and any funding bill out of a GOP led House is wholly dependent on that tally. Pay attention.

    DCSCA (43bc55)

  215. DCSCA:

    The American People saw a choice between incompetence and incompetent Wagnerian melodrama. They went for incompetence. When it turned out that Wagnerian melodrama was not on the ballot, mere incompetence lost.

    This is actually a pretty good result, given the dreadful choices. Imagine how things might go when the GOP stops being scared of the gravely misled MAGA voters who still love the loser, Trump.

    Appalled (fac04b)

  216. @217. Not really. Not if you crave MTG rewarded w/a committee assignment to Ways & Means by McCarthy. That’s the sort of melodrama you’ll be seeing.

    Expect Joey to give the press conference in half an hour Jimmy Carter would have delivered in 1980— had he defeated Ronald Reagan.

    Carterrific!

    DCSCA (15292b)

  217. 216.

    As for Ukraine- it’s the caucus count that matters and any funding bill out of a GOP led House is wholly dependent on that tally. Pay attention.

    The Hastert rule is that majority of Republicans has to back a bill, which is bad enough, but that the you have to get to a majority of the House using only Republicans.

    What McCarthy is probably going to do is start a fight over immigration enforcement and try to hold something hostage.

    In the lame duck session..

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  218. The GOP picked up the House delegate from Guam for the first time since 1993,

    I wondered, when I heard the same thing on the radio, how they could end the voting and get the results so soon, in the middle of the day November 8, but Guam is on the other side of the International Dateline, and so is not 9 hours behind Eastern Standard Time, but 15 hours ahead (and 18 hours ahead of California or Pacific Time)

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  219. @217 There are more populists in republican party then economic libertarian free trade conservatives and neo-cons and their numbers are growing while traditional buckley/reagan/freidman conservatives are dying off. Also abortion rights won on all ballots they were on. So much for your baby killing clap trap.

    asset (9c6ab6)

  220. Georgia election results

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-georgia.html

    reformatted a bit)

    Raphael Warnock*incumbent Democrat

    1,941,499 49.42%

    Herschel Walker Republican

    1,906,246 +48.52%

    Chase Oliver Libertarian

    81,175 +2.07%

    Total reported:

    3,928,920

    Although Raphael Warnock said something to the effect tat he might hot 50%, nobody else thinks so, so there will be a runoff.

    Since Nevada and Pennsylvania were both flipped, that leaves the Senate at 49-50 D-R, only this time it will be resolved before January 3.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  221. I heard also on the radio that there was this idea of Fetterman resining if both he and Josh Shapiro was elected.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  222. There was very heavy turnout where I was yesterday, more than there has been in any previous election. It could be this was because of down ballot candidates trying to get out the vote, or it could be because turnout was higher or maybe both. Turnout was reported every 3 hours starting with 6 am.

    Zeldin had concentrated in maybe 45 neighborhoods in New York City, but it looks like he was afraid to campaign, or try to get out the votes, in areas where he was under 50%.

    He got closer to 30% in NYC (taken as a whole) rather than the 33% he said he needed. He was probably fooling himself or being fooled by campaign consultants.

    Hochul does seem to have come in at under 55%. If she had lost that would have sent anti-crime shkwaves throughout the nation.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  223. 214. Jim Banks of Indiana running for Whip (if the Republican manage to win control of the House of Representatives) is among those who voted against Ukraine aid.

    Meanwhile Zelensky, (under pressure from Europeans and others to show he is willing to negotiate) has announced proposed peace terms (which I think assumes Putin would be gone – it includes punishment of war criminals. They have said for some time that they want a relationship with Russia. They are obviously not looking for unconditional surrender)

    It also includes withdrawal of Russian forces from the country.

    https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-11-08/zelensky-talks-russia-possible-ukraine-terms

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  224. The state of Washington votes by mail and has a jungle primary. Ptty Murray got over 50% but there had to be a runoff anyway.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  225. Response to pols is well under 10% but pollsters claim it does not make a difference.

    They had to find some question(s) that track with voting and whose answers for the population are known.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  226. Also, unless I’m misreading, voters didn’t have to wait to have theirs auto read. They could leave their ballot in the drop box.

    But the election officials stopped the process until they understood it, which took time as the lines grew.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  227. Imagine how things might go when the GOP stops being scared of the gravely misled MAGA voters who still love the loser, Trump.

    Imagine if those MAGA voters, who have particular needs just like everyone, found a sane champion.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  228. Also abortion rights won on all ballots they were on. So much for your baby killing clap trap.

    Note that DeSantis did not push an abortion ban.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  229. 137. Kevin M (eeb9e9) — 11/8/2022 @ 10:59 pm

    Let me be the first to reiterate that insisting that your voters all go to the polls day-of is beyond belief stupid. I’m going to bet that DeSantis encouraged early voting and mail voting.

    I don’t know, but Trump did that in 2020 for Florida. He said in Florida the process was OK.

    https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2020/08/04/trump-reverses-himself-says-voting-by-mail-in-florida-is-fine

    Asked why Florida is ok for mail ballots, but other states aren’t, Trump replied: “Florida’s got a great Republican governor,” a reference to his political ally, Gov. Ron DeSantis …

    ….“Whether you call it Vote by Mail or Absentee Voting, in Florida the election system is Safe and Secure, Tried and True,” Trump tweeted Tuesday.

    Trump’s tweet — in stark contrast to numerous others in recent weeks warning of a rigged election — comes as Republican mail ballot registration lags behind Democrats in Florida ahead of the November election, which will be held under the cloud of the novel coronavirus pandemic.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  230. Not out of the woods yet:

    ……..
    The vast majority of those (election denying) winning candidates claimed seats in the House, but candidates who have denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 vote had also won statewide races late Tuesday night. Their success came less than two years after Trump summoned a mob that stormed the U.S. Capitol on the premise that he had been cheated out of victory.

    Among the more than 150 election deniers projected to have won by midnight: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Rep. Greg Pence (Ind.), the brother of former vice president Mike Pence.
    ……..
    ……..Unofficial projections Tuesday showed that election deniers will amount to a sizable majority within the House Republican caucus, with enormous sway over the choice of the nation’s next speaker should Republicans claim control of the chamber. The speaker would in turn preside over the House in 2024, when the presidential vote could again be contested.
    ……..
    Election deniers were also projected to lose some competitive races. J.R. Majewski, a House candidate in Ohio who attended the Jan. 6 “Stop the Steal” rally and was trying to unseat U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, was among those who went down in defeat.

    Don Bolduc of New Hampshire lost to incumbent U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan after flip-flopping between declaring the 2020 election stolen and legitimate.

    (Doug) Mastriano lost by a large margin to Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, despite the fact that the state is one of the most politically contested in the nation. Among the roughly 6 in 10 Pennsylvania voters who viewed the 2020 election as legitimate, more than 8 in 10 voted for Shapiro, exit polls showed. Among the roughly third of voters who felt it was fraudulent, about 9 in 10 supported Mastriano.

    The Post identified candidates as election deniers if they directly questioned Biden’s victory, opposed the counting of Biden’s electoral college votes, expressed support for a partisan post-election ballot review, signed on to lawsuits seeking to overturn the 2020 result, or attended or expressed support for the Stop the Steal rally in Washington that preceded the riot at the Capitol.
    ………

    More:

    Tracking which 2020 election deniers are winning, losing in the midterms

    More than 160 election deniers on the ballot for the U.S. House, Senate and key statewide offices were projected to win their elections as of Wednesday morning. The majority of Republican nominees on the ballot Nov. 8 — 291 in all — had denied or questioned the outcome of the last presidential election, according to a Washington Post analysis. More than 85 were projected to lose so far. About three dozen races remained uncalled as vote counting continued.
    ………
    At least 143 GOP election deniers running for the U.S. House won their races as of Wednesday morning, ticking past the 139 House Republicans who objected to the counting of electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2021.

    Most of the election deniers nominated have won: Of the nearly 300 on the ballot, 171 were running where the GOP was favored. Another 46 appeared on the ballot in contests thought to be competitive, to mixed result.
    ……….

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  231. The state of Washington votes by mail and has a jungle primary.

    Half right, Sammy. It’s mail-in voting only (although I personally drop our ballots into a drop box in front of the county administration building), but we have a top-two primary system, not the jungle kind, and I prefer it that way.

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  232. The terms for the different kinds of primaries are not always used consistently, even by well-informed people, but I prefer using “jungle primary” to refer to the kind used in Louisiana, and some other places.

    The Louisiana primary is similar to the nonpartisan blanket primary (or top two primary) currently used in Washington and California since in both models, all candidates regardless of party identification run against each other in the first round, and (usually) the top two run against each other in a second round. In the top two system there is always a second round even if the leader gets a simple majority.

    The timing of the two systems is also different. The first round in the Louisiana primary is held on or near election day in November and the runoff is about a month later, while the top two primary holds the second round on election day in November and holds the first round months earlier. The Louisiana primary is an example of the two-round system.

    (I wouldn’t be surprised if sensitive types are avoiding the “jungle” term, for fear of offending someone.)

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  233. One other thing, Jim. I’m pretty sure the candidate in WA State still has to run in the general even if he/she gets more than 50% in the primary.
    Also, what do you call Alaska’s approach? Jungle squared? Double jungle?

    Paul Montagu (b351b8)

  234. Paul – You are right about candidates still having to run in our general election, even if they get 50 percent plus in our primary.

    People are calling the Alaska system a nonpartisan “top-four” primary with “ranked choice” voting. (There’s good chance it will keep Lisa Murkowski in the Senate.)

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  235. Vote count strangeness in CA:

    Vote totals have been frozen for most of the day in CA congressional races, and the L.A. Mayoral race numbers haven’t budged (but the votes-counted has gone from 11% to 44%). No doubt they are very busy behind the scenes, but it just seems quite opaque. Lack of transparency is how you get people thinking about conspiracies.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  236. but we have a top-two primary system, not the jungle kind, and I prefer it that way.

    You have a top-two general election, but the system where all primary candidates go on the same ballot is generally called a “jungle primary.” It’s the same way in California.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  237. The Maricopa County, AZ election officials just essentially said, ‘we got a whole lot of votes delivered on Election Day to count.’

    Imagine that.

    DCSCA (5f8456)

  238. So, after NV goes red, and AZ goes blue, it will be 50-49 GOP, and the GA runoff.

    Deja vu all over again.

    Kevin M (90f346)

  239. As I noted elsewhere, the AZ mailin/early vote numbers were almost identical between the two parties. In CA it was 2-1 Dem.

    Kevin M (90f346)

  240. Louisiana votes to keep slavery!

    asset (988187)

  241. asset, you are a liar:

    Four US states have voted to remove language from their state constitutions that said slavery is legal as a criminal punishment.

    But Louisiana voted to keep the slavery exception after the legislator who had sponsored the ballot initiative turned against it.

    Edmond Jordan said he had realised that the measure could have inadvertently expanded slavery.

    Advocates of the initiative say it is needed to prevent prisoner abuse. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63578133

    They hope to remove the same exemption from the US Constitution’s 13th Amendment, which abolished slavery but kept a loophole.

    nk (bb1548)

  242. Andrew Cuomo’s former aide Melissa DeRosa, was on the John John Catsimatidis radio show (on WABC at 5-6 pm) yesterday.

    She was asked about the election. She said, nationwide, or New York? They said they wanted her to speak about New Yr=ork.

    She said there actually was a red wave — (but only) in New York.

    Four House seats (out of 26) changed hands. The State Senate went from 42 Democrats to 39 or 40. I can add that Democrats lost two Assembly districts in southern Brooklyn and William Colton was re-elected with just 54% of the vote

    Republican registration is just 10% of voters in New York City, (Dem registration is almost 7 times as much) but Lee Zeldin won 30% of the vote. Where he lost the election was upstate where he simply did not have such a landslide as he hoped for.

    He gained the majorities he expected on Long Island, in Nassau and Suffolk county, but he didn’t get the huge majority he expected or hoped for in Westchester County, which usually votes much like Nassau County.

    Another way of putting it is: If he had gotten 35% of the vote in New York City, Hochul would have had only 51% of the vote – but of course if that had happened, whatever factor(s) caused the result to reach 35% in NYC would have also increased his percentage elsewhere so he would have won, and therefore he most likely was correct to say he needed 32% or 33%.

    His polling, combined with analysis by people experienced in elections, must have been pretty good.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  243. Paul Montagu (b351b8) — 11/9/2022 @ 10:05 am

    This could explain why Vance didn’t mention Trump in his victory speech.

    He thanked 34 other people.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  244. Time123 (bae8d4) — 11/9/2022 @ 9:01 am

    Reading that several states, such as MI say the legislature flip from R to D last night. That’s not great. The MI GOP stood strong in the face of Trumps efforts to steal the election, Whitmere is an imbecile, and I doubt this will work out well.

    I think this had to do with fears the legislature would steal the 2024 election.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  245. In New Jersey there was actually a bit of a red wave (one seat flipped and all but one other were safe for the incumbent) and one Trumpist won big in his re-election:

    Two years ago, Representative Jeff Van Drew, a Republican from the southern Jersey Shore, won by less than six percentage points as he defended his seat against a former teacher who had married into the Kennedy political dynasty. This year, he dispatched a strong but underfunded Democratic opponent by 24 points….

    …New Jersey uses a bipartisan redistricting commission to redraw its congressional map every 10 years to reflect population changes in the census. Last year, it turned to a tiebreaker, appointed by the courts, for a final ruling. The tiebreaker chose a map that was sculpted by the Democrats and also offered the state’s two seated Republican congressmen easier pathways to re-election…

    ….Mr. Van Drew, a former Democratic state lawmaker, joined the Republican Party in 2019 after pledging “undying support” for Mr. Trump, who then came to his district for a large rally.

    His Democratic opponent on Tuesday, Tim Alexander, a civil rights lawyer, lost big — a “shellacking,” he called it.

    He said he entered the race only after being convinced it was winnable. And he said he was unwilling to blame the results on the new shape of the district alone.

    “The tribalism and the divide in Washington is gross. It’s destructive,” he said.

    But he said turnout was abysmal in counties where he needed to perform well.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  246. In Vermont, a woman was elected to its lone House seat, and with that Vermont became the last of the 50 states to ever send a woman to Congress.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  247. They hope to remove the same exemption from the US Constitution’s 13th Amendment, which abolished slavery but kept a loophole.

    If you removed that loophole, prisons would soon be unconstitutional.

    Kevin M (90f346)

  248. I think this had to do with fears the legislature would steal the 2024 election.

    Watch the Ds try it themselves.

    Kevin M (90f346)

  249. Before all of this progress and technology, we had results by Wednesday morning. The signature on the ballot was validated by poll workers when they asked you for your name, address and date of birth then had you sign for your ballot. Now they get an avalanche of mail in and then they have to somehow “validate” the signatures remotely. The old system spread the workload around amongst volunteers at the precinct level, the new system concentrates it into a bottleneck.

    steveg (8376f7)

  250. steveg (8376f7) — 11/11/2022 @ 12:08 am

    Now they get an avalanche of mail in and then they have to somehow “validate” the signatures remotely.

    You can’t depend on the pollworkers recgnizing a certain fraction of the voters either oersonally, or from previous elections. But the big problem is that they have to make sure a person doesn’t vote both ways. This can be handled in any number of fifferent ways. No matter how it is handled, the ballots cannot simple be counted — the voter must be so to speak logged in so to speak

    The old system spread the workload around amongst volunteers at the precinct level, the new system concentrates it into a bottleneck.

    Fewer people to count ballots?

    In the old system there were absentee ballots too, but many fewer of them and the race could usuallly be called without them.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  251. A guest writer at Powerline, a lawyer, explains Maricopa County’s specialness.

    nk (56f370)

  252. all the hype about McMuffin, who lost to Mike Lee 55% to 41%

    Mitt Delecto hardest hit

    and Hageman gets 70% of the vote in Wyoming

    LOL

    JF (54a9a4)

  253. Safe red seat, safe bet. A tuna casserole with an (R) label would have won in either race.

    nk (56f370)

Leave a Reply


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.2686 secs.