Patterico's Pontifications

10/10/2022

Massive Russian Strikes Hit Ukraine, Including City of Kyiv

Filed under: General — Dana @ 10:01 am



[guest post by Dana]

Massive Russian strikes hit Kyiv and other cities just days after Ukrainian forces took out the critical Kerch Strait Bridge that linked Crimea to Russia. President Putin confirmed that the attacks were in retaliation to the destruction of the bridge. Russia’s attacks killed 11 and injured 87:

Moscow fired at least 84 cruise missiles toward Ukraine on Monday, the Ukrainian military said, 43 of which were neutralized by missile defense systems. Twenty-four Russian attack drones were also used in the salvo, 13 of which were destroyed.

[…]

It comes two days after an eruption damaged a crucial bridge to Crimea and dealt a strategic blow to the Kremlin. A wounded Vladimir Putin, who has also seen weeks of Russian losses on the battlefield, had been under pressure to respond with force following the explosion, which Putin on Sunday blamed on Kyiv and described as an act of terror.

“It is simply impossible to leave such crimes unanswered,” Putin said in a brief television appearance on Monday. “If attempts to carry out terrorist attacks on our territory continue, responses from Russia will be tough and will correspond in scale to the level of threats to the Russian Federation.”

Warning of future attacks was Dmitry Medvedev, acting deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council:

The first act has been performed…there will be more attacks…Ukraine poses a “constant, direct, and clear” threat to Russia.

President Zelensky responded to the attacks:

According to Zelensky, Russia aims to destroy Ukraine’s energy system and to cause panic and chaos among people.

“They purposefully chose such a time and such targets to cause as much damage as possible,” he said.

Russian forces struck energy infrastructure facilities in Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Lviv, Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad oblasts and in the south of Ukraine, according to the President.

“There may be temporary power outages now, but there will never be interruptions in our confidence in (Ukraine’s) victory,” added Zelensky.

Thus far, Zelensky has conferred with the leaders of the U.S., France, England, Poland, the European Commission President, and others who continued to pledge their support of Ukraine.

President Biden said reassured Ukraine of our support, saying:

[O]nce again demonstrate the utter brutality of Mr. Putin’s illegal war on the Ukrainian people. We offer our condolences to the families and loved ones of those who were senselessly killed today, as well as our best wishes for the recovery of those who were wounded. These attacks only further reinforce our commitment to stand with the people of Ukraine for as long as it takes. Alongside our allies and partners, we will continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom.

Repercussions:

As a result of the hits, Ukraine will stop exporting electricity to the EU: Russia’s mass missile strike on Ukraine that struck heat generation and electrical substations on Oct. 10 forced the country to stop exporting its electricity to the European Union in order to stabilize its own grid starting Oct. 11, the Ministry of Energy said.

Two additional updates:

Two well known activists and politicians crowdfunded a “revenge” campaign to help Ukraine. In a mere 6 hours they raised $5.7 million. They say the goal is to “buy Ukrainian-made RAM ІІ kamikaze drones for the army.”

Also, as a result of the attacks, Zelensky is set to speak at an emergency G7 meeting today.

–Dana

233 Responses to “Massive Russian Strikes Hit Ukraine, Including City of Kyiv”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (1225fc)

  2. “Genius” and “savvy”

    *************************

    “Roll those tanks, Vlad.”

    – Brought to you by two esteemed citizens of the USA

    norcal (a1f318)

  3. Dana: “Ukraine will stop exporting electricy to the EU”

    ‘electricy’???

    “IT” be covfefe, just a short circuit– or a typo? 😉

    DCSCA (b8edf4)

  4. Alongside our allies and partners, we will continue to impose costs on Russia for its aggression, hold Putin and Russia accountable for its atrocities and war crimes, and provide the support necessary for Ukrainian forces to defend their country and their freedom.

    “Costs on Russia,” Squinty?

    U.S. Money Committed to Ukraine Has Already Exceeded Cost of First 5 Years Afghan War

    https://www.westernjournal.com/us-money-committed-ukraine-already-exceeded-cost-first-5-years-afghan-war/

    “Their freedom,” Squinty??

    Ukraine announced… that men between the ages of 18 and 60 were forbidden from leaving the nation, which has been under martial law since the start of the Russian invasion.

    https://nypost.com/2022/02/25/ukraine-men-ordered-to-stay-and-fight-russia-as-others-flee/

    Ukrainian exports of electricity [financed by U.S, tax dollars propping up their government] is not an American problem, Joe–[or are you getting laundered kickbacks?] Cleaning up Florida is, Joe. America’s open Southern border is, Joe; soaring energy prices for heating oil and $7.00+/gal., gas in California is, Joe. Rampant inflation- the worst in 40 years– is, Joe. You’re the American president; not a crime boss managing Ukraine’s Bugs Moran. Or are you?

    DCSCA (b8edf4)

  5. The day that NATO enters the war has moved closer.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  6. Russians hit Glass Bridge… it is still standing

    https://www.kvoa.com/news/glass-bridge-still-standing-in-kyiv/article_c92527e0-4886-11ed-98ed-07ac5480f4f4.html

    On the broader subject of US aid to Ukraine, Joe has a self admitted history of leveraging aid to Ukraine (and others) his relatives have history of riding in Joe’s plane and grifting

    steveg (357dd1)

  7. Putin’s war crimes in response were expected.
    The good news is that Germany just announced they’ll be delivering missile defense systems to Ukraine, and we might as well chip in. It’s also time for Israel to step up.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  8. This guy agrees with me, that Putin and much of Russia need a major mental reset. In short, the notion of Russian Empire needs to die and be replaced with a smaller (but still geographically larger than any other nation), more humble (and less paranoid) Russia.

    1. Russians want (always wanted) to ban Ukrainians from using their language in Ukraine. Ukrainians do NOT want to ban Russians from using Russian language in Russia

    2. Moreover: Ukrainians are ok with Russians speaking Russian in their daily life in Ukraine and even with Ukrainians speaking Russian in their daily life. What they want is to help Ukrainian language and culture rise from centuries of oppression

    3. Russians claim they are a minority in Ukraine which should be protected. In fact, after centuries of imperial domination Russian politics/language/culture has become a majority in Ukraine and suppressed local culture. Defining themselves as minority is an imperial hypocrisy
    So Russians have been a majority defining themselves as minority, and colonizers defining themselves as colonized. This is a hypocricy of the Russian imperialism. But this has been changing, and Russians have been gradually losing their positions in Ukraine in the past decades.

    4. Russians want to annihilate Ukraine as a nation. Ukrainians want to annihilate Russia as an empire. Ukrainians have no wish to annihilate Russia as a nation. Nations can live side by side; empires want to erase other nations. Ukrainians want to destroy the RU imperial drive

    5. This is not a war in which Russians and Ukrainians are killing each other. This is a war in which Russia invaded Ukraine and holds the war on its territory. This is a war in which Russia kills both Ukrainians and Russians on the Ukrainian territory

    6. Russian politics & culture are obsessed with the idea of greatness. This greatness is associated with violence. That one is great who can be cruel. Greatness is an ideology of small people who can only accept their own existence if they are part of something “great”

    7. Transforming Russia is only possible as a result of Russian military defeat. Only defeat will pomote an idea that cruel and violent politics is making Russia less “great”, not more “great”. And that there should be a different idea of “greatness”

    8. To overcome the toxic idea of greatness Russians will one day need to reformulate their toxic correlation “great state – small people” into “small state – great people”. For that, Russia will need to become small.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  9. Paul Montagu (753b42) — 10/10/2022 @ 1:43 pm

    Not gonna happen under the current leadership. For that to happen would require a major, jolting disaster hitting Russia.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  10. It’s also time for Israel to step up.

    They won’t. There are still a lot of Jews in Russia, and Ukraine was never a happy place for the Jews. Long memories.

    Next rung: longer range missiles capable of hitting targets deeper into Russia. Maybe some of our older drones.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  11. Paul, this is a country run by people trying to recreate the Good Old Old Days of Brezhnev and Andropov. That’s the reset they have in mind. I’d say that they need a military coup, but they’ve obviously killed off any general with a brain. It’s dying, but the brain doesn’t know it yet.

    I’m just waiting for China to notice their Northern Resource Zone.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  12. For that to happen would require a major, jolting disaster hitting Russia.

    Again.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  13. Moscow fired at least 84 cruise missiles toward Ukraine on Monday, the Ukrainian military said, 43 of which were neutralized by missile defense systems. Twenty-four Russian attack drones were also used in the salvo, 13 of which were destroyed.

    Assuming this isn’t just propaganda, shooting down half the cruise missiles is an impressive defense ability.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  14. Soon enough our sanctions will have to include secondary measures. India and China are supporting Russia in this war and have to be convinced to stop. Make them pick a side — we are their largest trading partners.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  15. For that to happen would require a major, jolting disaster hitting Russia.

    Again.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9) — 10/10/2022 @ 2:18 pm

    I was something more along the lines of July 20th plot, but more successful.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  16. Kasparov nails it:

    Whoever attacked the Crimean bridge timed it for dawn to minimize civilian casualties. Putin also launches attacks at dawn, but does so to maximize casualties in the civilian centers he repeatedly targets.

    Russia’s response to military failure is to murder more civilians. It doesn’t even try to deny it, or pretend there were military targets. Putin’s lieutenants and propagandists are openly celebrating the murder of sleeping Ukrainian children.

    Russia is no longer a state sponsor of terror, but a fully terrorist state. The only way to end the terror is to give Ukraine everything they need to defend and win the war as quickly as possible. Any further delay means being Putin’s accomplice in murder.

    Deterrence can never guarantee against escalation, but weakness *guarantees* escalation. Ukraine needs air defenses, jets, heavy weapons now. Dozens more innocents have died because of the cowardly self-deterrence of Ukraine’s allies toward a war criminal.

    Dana (1225fc)

  17. U.S. says it will continue offering security assistance to Ukraine
    ………
    (White House national security spokesman John Kirby told ABC’s “This Week”) both sides needed to find a way to negotiate an end to the war but that Putin had shown no interest in doing so.

    “Quite the contrary,” he added. “By calling up hundreds of thousands of reservists, by politically annexing, or at least trying to annex four areas of Ukraine, he has shown every indication that he is doubling down,” Kirby added.
    ……..

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  18. Putin’s not hurting. The Ukrainians are hurting, but he doesn’t care. Some Russians are hurting, but he’ll get them used to it.

    We need to stop ascribing iPhone values to people who barely a 100 years ago were tilling their potato patches with mattocks fashioned from the shoulder blades of sheep.

    nk (6c45b4)

  19. Huge lines as drivers wait to cross damaged Crimea bridge
    ……….
    “We got here at 11:10 in the morning and we’ll have to stay here because we need to get back home. I think we will cross the bridge by midnight,” one of the drivers, Artyom Babak, told Reuters.

    Another motorist estimated the queue was about 9.3 miles (15 kilometers) long and would take up to 10 hours to pass.
    ……..

    Video at link. No different than commuting here. Sad!

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  20. Kevin M (eeb9e9) — 10/10/2022 @ 2:17 pm

    I agree they’ll need a military coup, Kevin, but I think the world will be a better place with an embarrassing Russian military defeat because it’ll humble them enough to think twice about bullying their neighbors.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  21. …….. I think the world will be a better place with an embarrassing Russian military defeat because it’ll humble them enough to think twice about bullying their neighbors.

    Paul Montagu (753b42) — 10/10/2022 @ 5:14 pm

    Putin and the current military leadership won’t allow that. They will use every weapon at their disposal to prevent it.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  22. And we have Putin’s word on that.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  23. Putin and the current military leadership won’t allow that.

    Putin & Co. may not be in a position to allow or disallow anything if there’s a successful version of Operation Valkyrie.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  24. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9-Special Edition on Russian Domestic Responses to the Kerch Strait Bridge Explosion

    ………
    (The) critiques from the pro-war camp may indicate rising doubts about Putin’s ability to deliver on his promised goal of “denazifying” Ukraine and may undermine Putin’s appeal within his core constituency. ………

    Other Russian nationalists, propagandists, and proxy officials are blaming security services and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), a phenomenon that can undermine Putin’s regime in the long term. ……..

    The perception of the trajectory of the war and of Ukrainian capabilities is changing as well, and Russians are undergoing a rude awakening. Russian sources have recognized that the Ukrainian southern counter-offensive poses a significant threat to Russian forces across southern Ukraine. This recognition is a significant deviation from the previous narrative presented by propagandists, milbloggers, and the Russian MoD for months that Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson Oblast were impossible or had failed.

    Russian sources are shifting their alibis to claim that Ukrainians would not be successful without NATO’s direct involvement, advancing the narrative that Russia is fighting against the powerful Western bloc rather than lowly Ukraine.
    ……..
    The Russian pro-war nationalist community greeted Surovikin’s appointment with irrational enthusiasm. …….. These comments portray Surovikin’s appointment as a continuation of what they see as Putin’s loss of confidence in the Russian MoD and General Staff and turn toward the more total and brutal style of command and war they prefer.

    These reactions are odd considering that Surovikin is a conventional Russian general officer who has reportedly been commanding Russian operations in southern Ukraine since July. He has hardly covered himself with glory in that role, as Russian forces there gained no meaningful ground and, in fact, suffered major losses in western Kherson under his command.

    The pro-war community is relying on a belief that Surovikin’s reputed “toughness” will suffice to change the trajectory of the war. The notion that Surovikin is “tougher” than his predecessor, Army General Alexander Dvornikov, or any of the other senior Russian commanders is bizarre. Dvornikov, like Surovikin and all the other Russian military district commanders, served in senior roles in Syria where they fought with extreme brutality. Dvornikov became known as “the butcher of Syria” for the viciousness with which Russian forces under his command waged war. Milbloggers had also celebrated Dvornikov’s reported appointment as the commander of Russian troops in Ukraine in a similar manner, a fact they appear to have forgotten. …….

    The “toughness” the pro-war community so loves, moreover, is a Soviet-era personality trait resulting from the brutalization of Soviet citizens and especially military personnel. It engenders fear in subordinates of the sort that inhibits honest reporting of problems or failures, encourages lying and blame-deflection, and produces the kind of robotic approach to executing orders that has contributed to Russian failures in Ukraine thus far. ………

    (Yevgeniy Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group) gave interviews that appear to confirm Western and Russian insider reports of fragmentation of the Kremlin and potential purges. …….

    Putin cannot do the one thing his hardline constituency demands—win the war. ……

    Escalation, either conventional or nuclear, cannot solve Putin’s problems. If Russian forces are able to expand their attacks against Ukrainian population centers or critical infrastructure, or if Putin is willing to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, he can only hope thereby to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensives for a time. Such attacks will not allow his forces to conquer Ukraine and achieve the objectives that extreme pro-war Russian nationalists demand.…….
    ………..

    Bold headings in original. Footnotes omitted.

    Rip Murdock (2b4e42)

  25. Paul Montagu (753b42) — 10/10/2022 @ 6:01 pm

    I brought that up in post 15. If you notice, Putin still conducts his meetings by video, though blowing up those on the other end would be nice.

    Rip Murdock (054285)

  26. Russia’s Asian minorities are already rebelling somewhat due to the poor treatment and conscription.
    The Chinese need resources and Asian Russia is right there… biggest problem for a soft takeover is the Tuvans. They are Turkic forest people and the Chinese (and Russians) have no idea how to handle them except used as discount gurkhas

    steveg (d69f91)

  27. Soon enough our sanctions will have to include secondary measures. India and China are supporting Russia in this war and have to be convinced to stop. Make them pick a side — we are their largest trading partners.

    You’re about five steps behind…

    Biden Admits That Sanctions Don’t Work and They Make Us Poorer

    https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/biden-admits-that-sanctions-dont-work-and-they-make-us-poorer/

    As to ‘picking sides’ – they already have. As have the Saudis- or have you missed the deliberatre rising price of oil. Brrrrr. “Winter is coming.” The powers the be in this game have rightly concluded POTUS is a PUTZ –and are making moves accordingly.

    Check out the list of companies still donig business- or merely cutbacvk doing business w/Russia since this began; it is updated daily:

    https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain

    DCSCA (03b009)

  28. Kasparov is a chess player; hence an opportunist who can play either side of the board, white or black; an ex-communist who, if the game pieces had moved a different way, would still be in Russia and a member of the Communist party- which he was in the Reagan years. He’s an ex-pat with a personal axe to grind and certainly not a go to guy in this as a millionaire, safe at home in NYC, who won’t put his money where his mouth is, camo-up, go full Rick Blaine and join the fight.

    DCSCA (03b009)

  29. Russia is no longer a state sponsor of terror, but a fully terrorist state.

    As such it needs to be removed from the UN Security Council. It is merely the presumed successor to the original member, a state that no longer exists. The succession should be suspended and another country be given candidate membership. Perhaps India, whose GDP is twice that of Russia. It might also be a dandy wedge, and make China consider their position as well.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  30. Russia’s Asian minorities are already rebelling somewhat due to the poor treatment and conscription.

    As cannon fodder, Putin would see this as win/win.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  31. @8. This is NOT an American problem. Here’s your homework assignment for the night:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZcRqkObP2U

    Then see if you can figure out; (a) the similarities- and difference [hint, the confrontation was directly between the U.S. and Russia then; today, it is between Ukraine and Russia, not America]. And (b) what was learned staring into the abyss– [hint, communication and compromise are essential; to deescalate, create a way out w/minimal humiliation for your adversary and realize political, not military, is the path to resolution and defusing the crisis.]

    DCSCA (03b009)

  32. @JVW Our Sweet Aloha is making moves… she’s leaving the Democratic party:
    https://youtu.be/H4Z1x8Ou8VU

    whembly (b770f8)

  33. I think the world will be a better place with an embarrassing Russian military defeat because it’ll humble them enough to think twice about bullying their neighbors.
    Paul Montagu (753b42) — 10/10/2022 @ 5:14 pm

    Clemenceau thought that too.

    JF (aadfd7)

  34. Challenge to the off ramp group — please find a solution that lets Putin back down and yet does not encourage him to do the same darn thing all over again in five years (once he has fixed his military). Also, why should Russia territorily benefit from simply invading his neighbor without any true provocation, other than Ukraine, in his opinion, not being a real country?

    Can you honestly do it?

    Appalled (7fda3b)

  35. There is no off-ramp when barbarians raid across the border. You push them back the way they came.

    nk (6c45b4)

  36. Appalled- The US should leave NATO. Putin would no longer feel threatened.

    kaf (559bca)

  37. News item: Biden to ‘Re-Evaluate’ Relationship With Saudi Arabia After Oil Production Cut

    Among other things, leading Democrats have proposed curbing American security cooperation with Saudi Arabia, including arms sales, and stripping OPEC members of their legal immunity so they can be sued for violations of American antitrust laws.

    It’s almost as if Biden wants to be the champion of increased oil production or something. Has he cleared this with the Sierra Club? I bet those lease auctions will start again PDQ. Right?!

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  38. 35, don’t say that within earshot of JD Vance…he’s ready to Khaki/Olive or Dark Blue Windbreaker up!

    urbanleftbehind (7b99e9)

  39. If Kamala is down with that…hand her the ice pick, Kev.

    urbanleftbehind (7b99e9)

  40. Re the Aloha Sweetie, a hypothetical VP debate or forum could feature 3 women with Asian Subcontinent roots (Hakey as DeSantis VP, Gabbard as a po’d Trump’s VP, and much less likely, Harris remaining as the Biden VP).

    urbanleftbehind (7b99e9)

  41. Perhaps Germany and France can deliver the help they’d committed to providing Ukraine several months ago.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  42. Putin would no longer feel threatened.

    It ain’t about Putin’s feelings, nor should we cater or capitulate to them, or his phony excuse that NATO made him do it. This is all on Putin and his criminal invasion.

    Paul Montagu (5a9e73)

  43. Appalled (7fda3b) — 10/11/2022 @ 7:11 am

    The first step is Putin’s complete withdrawal, and his off-ramp is the same as his on-ramp: Telling lots of lies. He can declare that Ukraine is officially de-nazified and no longer requires Russian occupation.
    However, one hiccup in Step One is that he illegitimately annexed multiple regions and calls them “Russia”, so he’s just going to have to be militarily defeated if he’s not overthrown first.
    The second step (to keep him invading in five years, assuming he’s still rule in five years) is for Ukraine to join NATO.

    Paul Montagu (5a9e73)

  44. Hi Paul,

    I don’t think of you as the “off ramp” group. Just sayin’

    It would seem to me the off ramp group needs, in some fundamental way, needs to expalain why or how Putin could be trusted. (Never mind getting Ukraine to agree to anything other than leave all of our country now). Otherwise that solution is just the “decent interval” Kissinger gave us for ending Vietnam.

    Appalled (b3f660)

  45. Appalled- The US should leave NATO. Putin would no longer feel threatened.

    kaf (559bca) — 10/11/2022 @ 7:36 am

    Are we now letting Putin’s feelings (and by extension Xi’s) govern American foreign policy?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  46. Under pressure, Germany pledges more military aid to Ukraine

    German defense leaders on (September 15th) pledged additional weapons and equipment to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia, announcing plans to deliver two multiple-launch rocket systems, known as MARS II, with 200 missiles and 50 Dingo armored personnel carriers.

    In addition, the government is close to finalizing a swap with Greece that would see Athens send 40 of its Soviet-made BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine and in return get 40 Marder IFVs from former Bundeswehr stocks now kept by industry, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said in Berlin.
    ……..

    Germany previously transferred Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers and Flakpanzer Gepard air defense tanks to Ukraine. If the US won’t transfer its M-1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine Germany won’t transfer its Leopard 2 heavy tanks. No one has transferred heavy main battle tanks to Ukraine.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  47. No one has transferred heavy main battle tanks to Ukraine.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/11/2022 @ 10:03 am

    Except Russia.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  48. https://hotair.com/david-strom/2022/10/11/wharton-school-of-business-creates-dei-and-esg-majors-n502453

    Meanwhile our elite institutions continue their Maoist indoctrination of future generations in our homeland.

    NJRob (e9ef25)

  49. I think the world will be a better place with an embarrassing Russian military defeat because it’ll humble them enough to think twice about bullying their neighbors.
    Paul Montagu (753b42) — 10/10/2022 @ 5:14 pm

    Think again:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZcRqkObP2U

    DCSCA (fb49e1)

  50. @34. Challenge to the off ramp group — please find a solution that lets Putin back down and yet does not encourage him to do the same darn thing all over again in five years (once he has fixed his military). Also, why should Russia territorily benefit from simply invading his neighbor without any true provocation, other than Ukraine, in his opinion, not being a real country? Can you honestly do it?

    Your homework assignment for today:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZcRqkObP2U

    … see if you can figure out the objective…. [ hint; wasn’t to assign a winner or loser but implement a political solution to defuse disaster rather than ignite ‘Armageddon.’]

    Oh… and yes, you can honestly do it— like, for example, pledging never to invade Cuba… and removing obsolete missiles on the ‘QT’ months later. [Oooooo, such a win for Russian and painful loss of face for the USA. 😉 ]

    DCSCA (fb49e1)

  51. @43. The first step is Putin’s complete withdrawal, and his off-ramp is the same as his on-ramp: Telling lots of lies. He can declare that Ukraine is officially de-nazified and no longer requires Russian occupation. However, one hiccup in Step One is that he illegitimately annexed multiple regions and calls them “Russia”, so he’s just going to have to be militarily defeated if he’s not overthrown first. The second step (to keep him invading in five years, assuming he’s still rule in five years) is for Ukraine to join NATO.

    =sigh= So your solution is to ‘force Putin to withdraw all Russian missiles from Cuba and have that corrupt country join NATO…’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZcRqkObP2U

    Do your homework.

    DCSCA (fb49e1)

  52. @51. Postscript: extra credit assignment— what happened to little Nikita less than two years post missile crisis? [Hint- ousting by the Russian powers that be with no ‘thermonuclear Armageddon’. That’s called a ‘win’ in the West.]

    DCSCA (fb49e1)

  53. In honor of “our girlfriend Tulsi” leaving the Dem Party to whereabouts undisclosed (as yet), Julia Davis

    Meanwhile on Russian state TV: Another translated clip of Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard, introduced by state TV host Vladimir Soloviev as “Our girlfriend Tulsi.”

    After the clip plays, one panelist asks: “Is she some sort of a Russian agent?” The host quickly replies: “Yes.”

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  54. Here is a Russian puppet in Donetsk today speaking to Ukrainians.
    “We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1579820810751324160

    But other than that he seems nice

    steveg (ba69e3)

  55. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10
    ………
    Putin emphasized that he would conduct proportional escalation in any future retaliatory actions. He stated that if Ukraine continues to carry out “terrorist attacks against [Russian] territory, then Russian responses will be harsh, and their scale will correspond to the level of the threat to the Russian Federation.” This declaration of proportionality suggests that Putin intends to continue climbing the escalation ladder rung by rung and cautiously rather than jumping to more dramatic measures such as the use of nuclear weapons. Putin may also mean to message the Russian pro-war camp that they should manage their expectations of an ongoing daily bombardment of Ukraine similar to the one conducted today. Russian milbloggers, for their part, have overwhelmingly welcomed the strikes ……

    The October 10 Russian attacks wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces successfully completed the mission of striking Ukrainian military command centers, signal infrastructure, and energy systems in Ukraine. Social media shows that Russians instead hit a children’s playground, a park, a German consulate, and a business center among other non-military targets. Ukrainian air defenses also shot down half of the Russian drones and cruise missiles. Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid will not likely break Ukraine’s will to fight, but Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons in this role may deprive Putin of options to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson and Luhansk Oblasts.

    Russian and Belarusian forces remain unlikely to attack Ukraine from the north despite Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s October 10 announcement that Belarus and Russia agreed to deploy the Union State’s Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV) —a strategic formation of Russian and Belarusian units tasked with defending the Union State. …….
    ……..
    Mobilization in Russia continues to face bureaucratic and logistical challenges. Russian court records suggest that years of corruption and petty theft of military supplies among Russian military personnel has rendered the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) unable to provide mobilized troops basic necessities such as protective equipment, weapons, medical, and personal supplies. The BBC reported on October 10 that Russian military garrisons have sentenced at least 558 men for clothing theft, and have made 12,000 fraud convictions and over 700 embezzlement convictions over the past eight years. Stolen equipment includes millions of rubles worth of goods ranging from bullet-proof vests, boots, and diesel fuel to soap, toilet paper, and socks. The data from these convictions likely represents a small subset of corruption in the Russian military. ……

    The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to depend on proxy forces, mobilized, and contract soldiers finding ways to provide their own equipment. ……
    ……..
    The Head of the Kherson Oblast occupation administration Vladimir Saldo announced that governors in Russian-occupied Crimea, Kransodar Krai, Stavropol Krai, and Rostov Oblast have agreed to take up to 10,000 people from Kherson Oblast. Saldo has framed the movement of Kherson Oblast residents as a “vacation” program for children and their parents. Odesa Oblast Military Administration Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk claimed that Russian and occupation administration officials may not plan to return the children and their parents to Kherson Oblast. ……
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  56. DCSCA,

    The best you can do is the Cuban Missile Crisis?

    I think the problem you have in assessing the situation is the Ukranians. You think of them — not as a state — but some kind of Mafia gang. That’s not how the Ukranian people think of themselves and they insist on fighting for their country.

    Putin insists on doubling down, doubling down, doubling down. He’s not an off ramp kind of guy, and given his past statements about Ukranian nationhood (aka, there is no such thing), he would likely try again.

    At least it seems that way to me. Do you have a belief some kind of mutually acceptable (and that includes acceptable to Ukraine) is really possible?

    Appalled (b3f660)

  57. DCCCP encouraged Putin to attack Ukraine because Biden was incompetent and Europe was energy dependent.

    DCCCP believed the war would be short with an inevitable Russian victory.

    DCCCP blames NATO and the U.S. for Russia’s actions and has vigorously encouraged abandoning Ukraine

    Homework: Why should we waste time on DCCCP’s Kremlin-fluffing analysis?

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  58. Can you honestly do it?
    Appalled (7fda3b) — 10/11/2022 @ 7:11 am

    yes, but first maybe you should explain why putin aggression against non-nato members is our problem that those in the off ramp group need to propose a solution for

    JF (bcb18e)

  59. AJ, don’t forget being called anti-American for supporting Ukraine’s right to defend itself while DC tacitly and overtly defended a war criminal’s criminal war. That was a real highlight.
    FTR, I don’t block him but I don’t read him either. Saves time.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  60. JF:

    Why was Ukraine our problem?

    1. Well, China was looking to see what we would do in Ukraine to asess what it might do in Taiwan.

    2. Putin would do it again. (Next time, against a NATO ally)

    3. Think of it like Gulf War I. Nations should not invade other nations without just cause. When they do, it’s best is the global system stops them and makes them pay dearly for it.

    4. Please don’t mention the Iraq war to me. I believe it was wrong (and did so by the time it was clear the WMDs were a hoax)

    Appalled (b3f660)

  61. #57

    DCSCA is no rocket scientist, but not dummy either. There are arguments for not getting involved in other people’s wars or starting them ourselves in our continuing effort to save the world. DCSCA usually has them available. In other words, I find his tone often annoying, but his arguments often keep me intrested.

    I think he has an animus towards Ukraine that screws up his perceptions (did the Chicken Kiev he had somewhere give him salmonella?). But it’s wrong to think everything in the Ukranian government is hunky dory. their corruption is an ongoing concern.

    Appalled (b3f660)

  62. @56. The best you can do is the Cuban Missile Crisis?

    The Cuban Missile Crisis Was 60 Years Ago, but It’s Urgently Relevant Today

    That pivotal moment proves that de-escalation and diplomacy can prevail.

    https://www.thenation.com/article/world/russia-ukraine-nuclear-war-armageddon/

    Yep.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZcRqkObP2U

    Do. Your. Homework.

    … not as a state — but some kind of Mafia gang.

    THEY ARE.

    Corruption in Ukraine

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine

    And the U.S. is subsidizing this corruption bordering on extortion.

    It’s Bugs Moran vs. Al Capone– with the U.S. Treasury supplying the tommy guns.

    DCSCA (fb27c0)

  63. R.I.P. Angela Lansbury, 96

    A genuine Hollywood queen; now she chas plenty of time to play a little solitaire.

    DCSCA (fb27c0)

  64. Well, China was looking to see what we would do in Ukraine to asess what it might do in Taiwan.

    so, ukrainians are just proxies? is that what all the ukrainian heroics are really about?

    there is no nato in SE asia, but china knows if they attack taiwan, japan or south korea we will respond militarily, and this would be the case whether we threw our chips in with ukraine or not

    2. Putin would do it again. (Next time, against a NATO ally)

    do what again? you mean, after a ukraine debacle, he’ll follow that up by going after much bigger fish? sorry, but the blitzkrieg analogy has worn thin

    nato will respond decisively, as they should. What we did or didn’t do with a non-nato member will have nothing to do with that

    Think of it like Gulf War I. Nations should not invade other nations without just cause.

    yes, that’s a good analogy. Do you think we would’ve come to Kuwait’s aid if they were Yemen instead of Kuwait? Meaning, if there weren’t US interests involved. There are minimal US interests bundled with ukraine, just as there are with Yemen, and I haven’t heard you advocate US involvement there. Why?

    JF (bcb18e)

  65. Hi JF,

    I think you said:

    yes, but first maybe you should explain why putin aggression against non-nato members is our problem that those in the off ramp group need to propose a solution for

    I did my bit. Your turn.

    Appalled (b3f660)

  66. ….china knows if they attack taiwan, japan or south korea we will respond militarily…..

    LOL! Comedy gold! None of those countries have the military to defend themselves against anyone. They all depend on the US military backstop. China would flick them off the map.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  67. do what again? you mean, after a ukraine debacle, he’ll follow that up by going after much bigger fish? sorry, but the blitzkrieg analogy has worn thin

    Ukraine would not be the debacle it is for Russia if it weren’t for the West coming to their aid. Within a month Putin would have had achieved his conquest of Ukraine.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  68. @61/@59/… and, of course, our beloved, blood-thirsty Agarn @57:

    Lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis for Today’s Crises

    …the principal take-away from the Missile Crisis was the importance of giving an adversary a way out of a confrontation short of complete surrender. Burns said that lesson is equally relevant today…

    https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/lessons-cuban-missile-crisis-todays-crises

    ________

    [Memo to the audience: in tonight’s performance, the role of Fidel Castro will be played by Bugs ‘Z’ Moran.]

    “Agarn, I don’t know why everybody says you’re so dumb!” – Sgt. Morgan O’Rourke [Forrest Tucker] ‘F-Troop’ ABC TV, 1965-67

    DCSCA (fb27c0)

  69. @56. The best you can do is the Cuban Missile Crisis?

    DCSCA is consistently stuck in a time warp.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  70. so, ukrainians are just proxies? is that what all the ukrainian heroics are really about?

    Yep. Ask dead Fidel Castro.

    there is no NATO in SE Asia

    There was at one time; SEATO- modeled after NATO. But it dissolved:

    ‘The Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was an international organization for collective defense in Southeast Asia created by the Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty, or Manila Pact, signed in September 1954 in Manila, the Philippines. The formal institution of SEATO was established on February 19, 1955 at a meeting of treaty partners in Bangkok, Thailand. The organization’s headquarters was also in Bangkok. Eight members joined the organization:

    Despite its name, SEATO mostly included countries located outside of the region but with an interest either in the region or the organization itself. They were Australia (which administered Papua New Guinea), France (which had recently relinquished French Indochina), New Zealand, Pakistan (which until 1971 included East Pakistan, now Bangladesh), the Philippines, Thailand, the United Kingdom (which administered Hong Kong, North Borneo and Sarawak) and the United States.

    Primarily created to block further communist gains in Southeast Asia, SEATO is generally considered a failure because internal conflict and dispute hindered general use of the SEATO military; however, SEATO-funded cultural and educational programs left longstanding effects in Southeast Asia. SEATO was dissolved on June 30, 1977 after many members lost interest and withdrew.” – source,

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia_Treaty_Organization

    Carterrific!

    DCSCA (fb27c0)

  71. In the meantime —

    Are the Ukranian proxies?

    No. Russia invaded them. Ukraine fought back. We are helping. But they are the ones fighting and dying for their country. Does that help out the US and the world at large? Yes. But they are the ones who decided to fight. Not Us.

    Do what again? you mean, after a ukraine debacle, he’ll follow that up by going after much bigger fish? sorry, but the blitzkrieg analogy has worn thin

    When I wrote that, I was thinking initial involvement, rather than right now. Nonetheless, in my opinion, Putin needs to lose in a way that gets through to him. Otherwise, he’ll do one of his frozen wars (like in Georgia or in Ukraine in 2014) and do this all over again when he feels stronger. By the way, I could see Putin launching an attack against Estonia or Georgia again.

    Gulf War I, but not Yemen

    That’s a good response. Yemen is not a straightforward invasion, IIRC. They have had an internal fuss, and te Iranians are helpin one side and the Saudis the other. I’m like Henery Kissinger when the Iraqis and Iranians started fighting — when he asked if both sides could lose.

    Really, the American interest equation comes to this. The Ukranians fought and want to fight this invasion. A weakening of Putin and Putinism is arguably in the US interest and here is a way to do this without sacrificing American lives.

    I don’t believe in fighting every war or making the world safe for democracy. (We aren’t that perfect ourselves.) We are a nation state with interests, and supporting Ukraine’s fight seems to align with US interests.

    Appalled (b3f660)

  72. @69. “Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana, 1905

    DCSCA (fb27c0)

  73. Are the Ukranian proxies?

    No.

    Except they are. Ask the U.S. Treasury.

    DCSCA (fb27c0)

  74. #73

    Except they aren’t. Ask the defenders of Mariupol.

    Appalled (b3f660)

  75. @71. supporting Ukraine’s fight seems to align with US interests.

    And you have the munchies; step away from the bong: to a crime family [eh, Joey?!] perhaps- but not the United States of America:

    According to Transparency International’s 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index, (a scale of least to most corrupt nations), Ukraine ranked 122nd out of 180 countries in 2021, the second most corrupt in Europe, with Russia the most at 136.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine

    America’s new motto: In Corruption We Trust!

    DCSCA (fb27c0)

  76. @74. Except they are- ask the defenders at the Bay of Pigs.

    DCSCA (fb27c0)

  77. DCSCA’s law: Nations with rampant corruption aren’t really nations.

    Does that mean we get to invade Mexico?

    Appalled (b3f660)

  78. Appalled (b3f660) — 10/11/2022 @ 1:26 pm

    I’d say the one difference between Yemen and Ukraine, Appalled, is that Yemen is in a sectarian civil war and Ukraine is not, sectarian or otherwise.
    Putin invaded both the Crimean and Donbas regions and they’re both under his thumb. Additionally, Putin is in charge of military operations in Donbas against Ukrainian forces, thanks to his military, mercenaries and weapons.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  79. It seems that some people here would only support aiding NATO countries or countries that directly serve U.S. interests.

    By that principle, most of the countries in Africa, Asia, and South America should be abandoned to any despot seeking to expand his power and range.

    Does Israel directly serve U.S. interests? I don’t think so. However, I think we should aid them if they were attacked.

    norcal (a1f318)

  80. Does Israel directly serve U.S. interests?

    Yes, as a source of election-year votes.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  81. R.I.P. Angela Lansbury

    Icy (fc2e4e)

  82. ….china knows if they attack taiwan, japan or south korea we will respond militarily…..

    LOL! Comedy gold! None of those countries have the military to defend themselves against anyone. They all depend on the US military backstop. China would flick them off the map.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/11/2022 @ 1:11 pm

    China (all numbers are estimates)

    People’s Liberation Army-2.0M personnel, 500,000+ reserves

    People’s Liberation Army Navy-530+ ships, 600+ aircraft (two aircraft carriers, with a third fitting out plus up to six total by 2037.)

    People’s Liberation Army Air Force-3,400 aircraft

    People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force-1,200 conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles, 200 to 300 conventional medium-range ballistic missiles 200-300 ground-launched cruise missiles, an unknown number of conventional intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and approx. 350 nuclear warheads.

    Japan

    Ground Self-Defense Forces-150,000 personnel

    Maritime Self-Defense Forces-127 ships (currently one converted carrier carrying only helicopters and non-combat aircraft)

    Air Self-Defense Force-745 aircraft

    Nuclear weapons-0

    South Korea

    Army-420,000 personnel

    Navy-150 ships, 70 aircraft (plus 29,000 Marines) (no ships larger than a destroyer)

    Air Force-740 aircraft

    Nuclear weapons-0

    Taiwan

    Army-130,000 personnel

    Navy-128 ships, 28 aircraft (plus 10,000 Marines) (no ships larger than a destroyer)

    Air Force-600 aircraft

    Nuclear weapons-0

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  83. Appalled: “But it’s wrong to think everything in the Ukranian government is hunky dory. their corruption is an ongoing concern.”

    But the Ukrainian government has not attacked another sovereign nation. Nor, does it seem quite so willing to imprison or poison political opponents. Is there a running quasi-kleptocracy? Probably, but are they leaning westward and wanting to become more western? My limited understanding is “yes”. I’m not sure a vague term like “corruption” is sufficient to not help them against a larger aggressor. Characterizing Russia/Ukraine as mafia gangs ignores the important differences, as in Ukraine is not acting against us and the western world. Their people are happy enough to fight and die for their country and did not jump ship when war clouds were gathering at the start of the year. A populace oppressed by “corruption” wouldn’t die for Zelensky if this was only about making Zelensky money. The equation is different in Russia.

    A good bit of the defense budget is about countering Russian and Chinese military moves. I would suggest that $80B invested to burn out the Russian army, allowing sanctions to bite, and applying pressure for regime change while losing no lives remains a decent bargain. Not forever mind you, but if we are interested in chilling further Russian adventurism, this actually worked. Some don’t like it because Biden can use it politically. I’ll maintain that Biden won’t be running in 2024, he just can’t announce it before the midterms.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  84. I completely and utterly condemn Russia’s invasion of their sovereign neighbor. Putin is a horrible war criminal for having done that.

    However, history didn’t start 6 months ago.

    When the wall came down, the US govt immediately stated that NATO would not expand.
    Then it was we would not put arms and troops into past Warsaw pact countries.

    Over the last 40 years we have made promises about this stuff only to renege on them a few years later.
    So, from the Russian viewpoint we are being aggressive, continually pushing our influence closer and closer to their border. Even if the US and NATO were doing all that for good and pure reasons Russia is looking at it realistically and seeing NATO as expanding onto their doorstep in a threatening manner.

    so, yes, if we withdrew from NATO and stopped helping the Ukrainian government Russia would end the conflict and withdraw.

    Not sure why the US is sticking its nose into a conflict between two of the most corrupt regimes in Europe. Other than to make the MIC gobs of money.

    kaf (3a89e5)

  85. Murdock

    Taiwan has the largest Artillery force in the world, over 5K in well positioned and in protected islands and beaches. The ports of the CCP are within range of massive automatic 8 in rifles that will send an iron curtain of shells hitting the fleet at its docks. The Taiwan airforce has conventional missiles that will cripple all CCP power plants and communications. The have 3 dozen IRBM’s pointed at the Yellow River Dams – which if destroyed will destroy 40% of Chinas infrastructure

    Within 72 hours the size of the Taiwanese army will rise to 330,000 men 2500 tanks and 10,000 plus mortars and machine guns.

    The Taiwanese have 8,000 plus anti aircraft and anti armor missiles. They have fifty destroyers and frigates a third which have stealth features – the chinese navy would have to defeat them, 60 allied stealth submarines, dodge for a day the worlds greatest artillery barrage then land on only three usable beaches each guarded, mined and festooned with troops, mortars and remotely controlled machine guns

    EPWJ (650a62)

  86. @84, Baaaaah. Russia is threatened by Russians seeing pro-western democracies thriving while they are stuck in a kleptocracy. Russian territory is not threatened. NATO has no interest in taking Russian land. Authoritarians always need a villain to justify their illegal actions.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  87. EPWJ (650a62) — 10/11/2022 @ 3:50 pm

    Then they don’t need the US. Good.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  88. As China has recently proved through their recent naval maneuvers, they do not need to attack Taiwan, merely blockade it into submission.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  89. Rip,

    They want 100 himars but basically no the govt doesnt need us, their weapon systems are vastly superior to ours in missiles, aircraft (heavily modified F16’s) infantry weapons. Their fleet is amazing, they are building stealth corvettes than can bogart 24 missiles at once, these missiles cannot be intercepted like our new Jassem missiles. They were building 4 corvettes a year now its one a month.

    China has stupidly antagonized three countries they cannot compete with

    EPWJ (650a62)

  90. NATO to hold nuclear exercise despite Russian warnings
    ……..
    The exercise, dubbed “Steadfast Noon,” is held annually and usually runs for about one week. It involves fighter jets capable of carrying nuclear warheads but does not involve any live bombs. Conventional jets, and surveillance and refueling aircraft also routinely take part.

    Fourteen of the 30 NATO member countries will be involved in the exercise, which was planned before Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The main part of the maneuvers would be held more than 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) from Russia, a NATO official said.

    “It would send a very wrong signal if we suddenly now cancelled a routine, long-time planned exercise because of the war in Ukraine. That would be absolutely the wrong signal to send,” Stoltenberg told reporters on the eve of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.
    ……..
    As his war plans have gone awry, Putin has repeatedly signaled that he could resort to nuclear weapons to protect the Russian gains. The threat is also aimed at deterring NATO nations from sending more sophisticated weapons to Ukraine.
    ……..
    “We are closely monitoring Russia’s nuclear forces,” Stoltenberg said. “We have not seen any changes in Russia’s posture, but we remain vigilant.”
    ########

    Description of Steadfast Noon 2021.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  91. Rip,

    There is no blockade of Taiwan, ships come and go at will

    EPWJ (650a62)

  92. China has stupidly antagonized three countries they cannot compete with

    That I doubt.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  93. Rip,

    There is no blockade of Taiwan, ships come and go at will

    EPWJ (650a62) — 10/11/2022 @ 4:11 pm

    I didn’t say there was now, but if China wanted to, they certainly could do so.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  94. When the wall came down, the US govt immediately stated that NATO would not expand.

    This is false because even Gorbachev acknowledged that the US made no promises about NATO eastward expansion.

    “The topic of ‘NATO expansion’ was not discussed at all, and it wasn’t brought up in those years. … Another issue we brought up was discussed: making sure that NATO’s military structures would not advance and that additional armed forces would not be deployed on the territory of the then-GDR after German reunification. Baker’s statement was made in that context… Everything that could have been and needed to be done to solidify that political obligation was done. And fulfilled.”

    Also, NATO wasn’t an issue when Putin invaded in 2014. He was just pissed off that his stooge (Yanukovych) fled the country and was voted out by parliament, and NATO wasn’t an issue in 2022 (Putin’s lies don’t count) because there’s no way Ukraine could join this alliance while two of its regions were under enemy occupation.
    I agree, history didn’t start in 2022, and history isn’t what Putin’s propagandists say it is.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  95. Probably, but are they leaning westward and wanting to become more western? My limited understanding is “yes”.

    If you watch this scene of Servant of the People, it’s an emphatic YES. Granted, it’s about a fictional president starring Zelenskyy, but it’s his show and his sentiments.
    BTW, I’m on Season 2, Episode 2, and it does offer a glimpse of Ukraine, of Ukrainians, and how they see themselves and their oligarch/corruption problems.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  96. kaf
    I posted a statement via video from a DNR warlord above.
    He seems to think the Ukrainians should capitulate or be exterminated and is of the belief that the Soviet Union flag wavers support him.

    steveg (4256fc)

  97. @95. Watch this Ukraine gem instead:

    “A Friend Of The Deceased.”

    DCSCA (f82d2b)

  98. @34

    Challenge to the off ramp group — please find a solution that lets Putin back down and yet does not encourage him to do the same darn thing all over again in five years (once he has fixed his military). Also, why should Russia territorily benefit from simply invading his neighbor without any true provocation, other than Ukraine, in his opinion, not being a real country?

    Can you honestly do it?

    Appalled (7fda3b) — 10/11/2022 @ 7:11 am

    Been thinking about this for quite some time.

    I think there *is* an off ramp, but all sides is going to hate it.

    Here’s WHY we should push/encourage an off ramp:
    Russia has nukes and MAD principle doesn’t really apply here, and Russia does use nukes, only the non-Ukraine states could respond.

    Here’s the offramp:
    -Everyone: Stops all hostility obviously.

    -Russia: Withdraws to early 2022 borders (they keep Crimea). Eastern Ukraine are not on the table for Russia.

    -Ukraine: Concedes Crimea to Russia, but since the borders are now clearly defined they can proceed with NATO membership.

    Not everyone is going to be happy, but gets *something* out of it.

    1) Russia gets international recognition for Crimea (which is huge for Russia).
    2) Ukraine keeps the RU occupied eastern Ukraine and joins NATO, thus gets international funding going forward as a “western” nation.
    3) We don’t get into an escalation that involves Russia using nukes (which the world should absolutely avoid).
    4) Negotiate sanction wind-downs when hostility is ceased.

    Above all, the world has a vested interest that nukes are not used in this conflict.

    whembly (b770f8)

  99. 5) Russia pays reparations to Ukraine.

    Rip Murdock (560c1d)

  100. whembly,

    You can usually tell a compromise is successful when everybody hates it. Your proposal has that feel.

    The obstacles would be — (i) Ukraine finally ceding Crimea and (ii) Putin accepting Ukraine membership in NATO. (And the US/EU troops on the border that would make this deal possible). But a peace deal that looks a lot like this seems like it ought to be possible. But I think it would require Putin’s overthrow by folks who are not rabid Russian nationalists. NATO has been Putin’s excuse. It’s going to be hard for him to accept that he just made NATO stronger and survive having done so.

    Appalled (25c4d5)

  101. 6) Direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. No outside pressures from NATO.

    Rip Murdock (560c1d)

  102. ‘Peace, peace,’ they say, when there is no peace.”

    Rip Murdock (560c1d)

  103. How about the West takes a testosterone pill and does the job it should have done thirty years ago? Disarms Russia, detaches all its “republics”, and buys Russia’s gas and oil on the West’s terms?

    nk (f76974)

  104. Yeah, we should not have a NATO. Because we should not need a NATO. Because there should not be a Russia for a NATO to defend against. Aren’t three generations of barbarians enough?

    nk (f76974)

  105. And Putin, Putin, Putin! We have this tendency to pick a figurehead to be the villain while excusing the hordes actually committing the villainy.

    It’s not Putin against the world. It’s Russia against the world. It always has been and always will be under whatever leader it is under from time to time.

    nk (f76974)

  106. Putin has made himself the figurehead. Putin is Russia.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  107. ……But a peace deal that looks a lot like this seems like it ought to be possible. But I think it would require Putin’s overthrow by folks who are not rabid Russian nationalists……

    Appalled (25c4d5) — 10/12/2022 @ 7:25 am

    Which one of these do you

    a) want to replace Putin

    b) will replace Putin?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  108. @99

    5) Russia pays reparations to Ukraine.

    Rip Murdock (560c1d) — 10/12/2022 @ 7:24 am

    Should be negotiated, but depends on what would entice Russia to stop what they’re doing.

    Don’t be surprised that this won’t be on the table, nor should it be a deal breaker imo.

    whembly (b770f8)

  109. Putin walked away from a better deal than whembly’s last May, and the situation on the ground has changed for the worse for Putin. I doubt anything will change until there’s a palace coup, with Putin slipping and falling out a Kremlin window.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  110. Aren’t three generations of barbarians enough?

    Ask victorious Nazi Germany.

    Oh. Wait.

    DCSCA (990489)

  111. I see the Saudi’s are still giving the Biden Administration stink eye over the Khashoggi decimation. It’s an egregious affront to the crown to criticize so much as the luggage ensemble used as the butchers box, much less the crown itself and they’d rather give Russia a oil price boost than listen to critics.

    steveg (6362b0)

  112. I see a lot of posturing from folks on the left concerning the Saudis. They need a scapegoat to assuage Americans mad about the price of gasoline on the verge of an election.

    They ignore the fact that Biden, in order to appease his extreme environmentalist base, has done little to encourage U.S. domestic oil production.

    You can’t have it both ways, Joe.

    norcal (a1f318)

  113. The Russian elites realize they have a never ending supply of barbarians as long as they steal all the money, and leave 90% of the country at an impoverished 10 on the Trump s#!?hole scale

    steveg (6362b0)

  114. …..depends on what would entice Russia to stop what they’re doing.

    At the present, and absent direct, sustained attacks against Russia proper, there is nothing that will entice Putin (aka Russia) to stop what they are doing. Like in American politics, Putin needs to play to his base (nationalists, milbloggers, anti-Semites, the military). To do otherwise would literally lead to his demise.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  115. @100

    whembly,

    You can usually tell a compromise is successful when everybody hates it. Your proposal has that feel.

    The obstacles would be — (i) Ukraine finally ceding Crimea and

    This is where the West need to forcefully assert to Ukraine that this is necessary, with promises of future help. (infrastructure fundings, NATO, etc…).

    (ii) Putin accepting Ukraine membership in NATO. (And the US/EU troops on the border that would make this deal possible). But a peace deal that looks a lot like this seems like it ought to be possible.

    Putin needs to lose something, and Ukraine (most NATO countries) wants this.

    But I think it would require Putin’s overthrow by folks who are not rabid Russian nationalists. NATO has been Putin’s excuse. It’s going to be hard for him to accept that he just made NATO stronger and survive having done so.

    Appalled (25c4d5) — 10/12/2022 @ 7:25 am

    A regime change shouldn’t be on the table imo. Otherwise, that forces Putin further into a nuclear point of no return, which is what we all should be advocating to avoid.

    whembly (b770f8)

  116. You can’t have it both ways, Joe.

    Wanna bet:

    Biden: Risk of nuclear ‘Armageddon’ highest since 1962 Cuban missile crisis

    https://www.ksl.com/article/50490634/biden-risk-of-nuclear-armageddon-highest-since-1962-cuban-missile-crisis

    Biden: I don’t think Putin will use nuclear weapons – Politico.com

    and increasingly, IN THE SAME SENTENCE:

    ‘”I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession…” Biden said.’ – CNN.com

    DCSCA (fe85b6)

  117. @101

    6) Direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. No outside pressures from NATO.

    Rip Murdock (560c1d) — 10/12/2022 @ 7:26 am

    Zelensky, by himself, appears to be doubling down. It’s going to take his allies to convince him that peace is the best outcome.

    whembly (b770f8)

  118. @103

    How about the West takes a testosterone pill and does the job it should have done thirty years ago? Disarms Russia, detaches all its “republics”, and buys Russia’s gas and oil on the West’s terms?

    nk (f76974) — 10/12/2022 @ 7:34 am

    Want a nuclear World War 3? THIS is how we get a nuclear World War 3.

    whembly (b770f8)

  119. It’s going to take his allies to convince him that peace is the best outcome.

    Negotiating with Russia is like a wolf asking the lamb what’s for dinner.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  120. @117 – Zelensky, by himself, appears to be doubling down. It’s going to take his allies to convince him that peace is the best outcome.

    Imagine the United States of America led by… Don Rickles.

    DCSCA (fe85b6)

  121. @119

    Negotiating with Russia is like a wolf asking the lamb what’s for dinner.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/12/2022 @ 10:20 am

    I don’t disagree Rip.

    But how would YOU avoid a nuclear war?

    whembly (b770f8)

  122. Ukraine will be partitioned, the rubble cleared, infrastructure rebuilt… by the likes of Halliburton, European and Russian contractor subsidiaries, financed chiefly by the free U.S. funds, European interests and the World Bank. That’s how this ends. War is good business.

    DCSCA (fe85b6)

  123. We make avoiding a nuclear war our second priority. We make the assured complete and total annihilation of Russia our enemies our first priority. That’s how we avoid a nuclear war.

    nk (f76974)

  124. Biden did not use the word “Armageddon” by accident. A large proportion of Julian Calendar Orthodox, which the Russians are, believe in The Apocalypse. Are they ready to stand for Judgment?

    nk (f76974)

  125. Negotiating with Russia is like a wolf asking the lamb what’s for dinner.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/12/2022 @ 10:20 am

    I don’t disagree Rip.

    But how would YOU avoid a nuclear war?

    whembly (b770f8) — 10/12/2022 @ 10:23 am

    It depends what you mean by nuclear war. If it means thermonuclear exchanges between the United States and Russia, I think it is highly unlikely. But if it means that Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, that’s not nuclear war. I don’t think Putin will do that, but if he does, the US and NATO can respond with non-nuclear attacks on Russian command and control centers, military bases, the Kerch Bridge, and other targets. This is what I meant by “direct, sustained attacks against Russia proper” in post 114. Putin should feel the same pain that the residents of Kyiv, Mariupol, etc. have felt over the last eight months (though I don’t expect it to get that far.) I hope the Russian elites (and ordinary citizens) would recognize they should take matters into their own hands to save their country before its too late.

    I would also change my post at 119-Negotiating with Russia is like a wounded wolf asking the lamb what’s for dinner. Wounded animals are the most dangerous. They are more likely to lash out.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  126. @123

    We make avoiding a nuclear war our second priority. We make the assured complete and total annihilation of Russia our enemies our first priority. That’s how we avoid a nuclear war.

    nk (f76974) — 10/12/2022 @ 10:28 am

    If Russia is facing total annihilation, what’s to stop them from using Nukes?

    I don’t think you understand how many nuclear assets Russia has, not to mention that they DO have nuclear armed submarines.

    whembly (b770f8)

  127. If Russia is facing total annihilation, what’s to stop them from using Nukes?

    I don’t think you understand how many nuclear assets Russia has, not to mention that they DO have nuclear armed submarines.

    whembly (b770f8) — 10/12/2022 @ 10:40 am

    Hyperbole. Russia is nowhere near facing total annihilation. They may face defeat in a tiny border war with Ukraine, but Russia itself will survive.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  128. U.S. Drone Could Be Behind Crimea Bridge Explosion

    A drone supplied to the Ukrainian military from the U.S. could have been behind the October 8 explosion on the strategically vital Kerch Strait Bridge that connects Russia’s mainland to the annexed Crimean peninsula, an expert analysis recently suggested. A report published by independent military experts and researchers from Molfar, a global open-source intelligence community, refuted the Kremlin’s narrative of the bridge blast and offered possible alternatives. – Newsweek.com

    …and in other news: Italy could be behind the Kennedy assassination.

    An Italian made, Manlicher-Carcano rifle used by L.H. Oswald may be behind the murder on November 22…

    DCSCA (fe85b6)

  129. But if it means that Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, that’s not nuclear war.

    Ignorance is bliss. Stay happy!

    DCSCA (fe85b6)

  130. @125

    It depends what you mean by nuclear war. If it means thermonuclear exchanges between the United States and Russia, I think it is highly unlikely. But if it means that Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, that’s not nuclear war. I don’t think Putin will do that, but if he does, the US and NATO can respond with non-nuclear attacks on Russian command and control centers, military bases, the Kerch Bridge, and other targets. This is what I meant by “direct, sustained attacks against Russia proper” in post 114. Putin should feel the same pain that the residents of Kyiv, Mariupol, etc. have felt over the last eight months (though I don’t expect it to get that far.) I hope the Russian elites (and ordinary citizens) would recognize they should take matters into their own hands to save their country before its too late.

    I would also change my post at 119-Negotiating with Russia is like a wounded wolf asking the lamb what’s for dinner. Wounded animals are the most dangerous. They are more likely to lash out.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/12/2022 @ 10:38 am

    To me “nuclear war” means using any nuclear technologies. Even tactical.

    I think we ALL should be thinking… “and then what” scenarios.

    I think we HAVE to negotiate with Russia with the premise in mind to AVOID any uses of nuclear assets.

    We don’t want a scenario whereby Russia uses even a small tactical nuke in Ukraine and Russia somehow “escapes” full accountability as it would then trivialize the uses of nukes world wide. The proverbial, you can’t put the toothpaste back into the tube situation. And I think that even includes that NATO destroys the Russian Black Fleet conventionally in response. It’s still really, really bad precedent.

    Negotiating means Ukraine loses *something*.

    Negotiating also means Russia loses *something*.

    It’s just a matter of finding the right combination that both sides can tolerate.

    Just remember, Russia get’s a vote here too.

    whembly (b770f8)

  131. Negotiating means Ukraine loses *something*.

    Negotiating also means Russia loses *something*.

    It’s just a matter of finding the right combination that both sides can tolerate.

    That’s a problem only resolved by the warring parties themselves. Russia has not indicated any desire for peace (except on its terms), and Ukraine has no incentive given their current battlefield progress.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  132. @131

    That’s a problem only resolved by the warring parties themselves.

    That’s not true.

    The West is involved.

    Russia has not indicated any desire for peace (except on its terms),

    Hence why you NEGOTIATE.

    I’m sure international recognition of Crimea would be on the table for Russia.

    and Ukraine has no incentive given their current battlefield progress.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/12/2022 @ 10:58 am

    The West is supporting Ukraine. The West’s continued support is an incentive.

    whembly (b770f8)

  133. I think we HAVE to negotiate with Russia with the premise in mind to AVOID any uses of nuclear assets.

    It’s all on Putin. It is his choice, no one is forcing him to make that decision, just as it was his choice to attack Ukraine. WE don’t have to do anything.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  134. #115 (Whembly)

    The one place where DCSCA’s references to the Cuban Missile Crisis has some relevance — the Russian leader who play brinkmanship and then blinks will likely be deposed. A negotiated settlement where Russia takes a loss, even a tempered one, is 99% certainly going to cause regime change.

    Zalensky coughing up Crimea causes him a similar problem — though I could see him doing the deal and then making a bunch of money in retirement selling his memoirs.

    As for nk. Could his name be short for nuke?

    Appalled (6f380d)

  135. Negotiating means Ukraine loses *something*.

    Negotiating also means Russia loses *something*.

    It’s just a matter of finding the right combination that both sides can tolerate.

    Just remember, Russia get’s a vote here too.

    whembly (b770f8) — 10/12/2022 @ 10:52 am

    A thought exercise: I have a beef with my neighbor, whose lifestyle I don’t agree with, so I decide to occupy his back yard. I even build a few structures. The neighbor asks the neighborhood association to condemn my action, which it does. I pay no heed.

    My neighbor becomes irate and starts shooting it out with me. I have more guns, and am better fortified than he is, so he is unable to get rid of me. It becomes a protracted war.

    The neighborhood association proposes a compromise. I return to my neighbor 90% of his back yard, keeping 10% of it for myself.

    Both sides have to lose something, right?

    norcal (a1f318)

  136. Russia has not indicated any desire for peace (except on its terms),

    Hence why you NEGOTIATE.

    And if Russia doesn’t want to negotiate? What incentive do they have?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  137. @135 norcal: Add that you neighbor also has a bomb that can destroy you.

    whembly (b770f8)

  138. @136 Do you know that Russia doesn’t want to negotiate? I missed an offering… care to share that story?

    whembly (b770f8)

  139. @137 whembly, I’m the one who occupied his property, and I’m the one who has the bomb.

    Do I get to keep 10% of his back yard as a negotiated peace deal?

    norcal (a1f318)

  140. @139 norcal: as a peace settlement the prevents you from using that bomb.

    Yes.

    whembly (b770f8)

  141. @136 Do you know that Russia doesn’t want to negotiate? I missed an offering… care to share that story?

    whembly (b770f8) — 10/12/2022 @ 11:10 am

    Because they have fired 111 missiles at civilian targets in Ukraine, killing 19 (probably more) over the last two days?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  142. And continued combat operations in Eastern Ukraine?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  143. as a peace settlement the prevents you from using that bomb.

    Yes.

    whembly (b770f8) — 10/12/2022 @ 11:17 am

    In that case, I think I’ll use the same strategy with other neighbors, and piece by piece enlarge my land holdings.

    norcal (a1f318)

  144. By the way, whembly, I respect you for answering my question instead of bobbing and weaving like some commenters do.

    I agree with you much of the time, incidentally.

    norcal (a1f318)

  145. @141

    Hey Rip,

    Now do the missles cominh from the fake Palestinian Authority.

    NJRob (c844b3)

  146. @141

    Hey Rip,

    Now do the missles cominh from the fake Palestinian Authority.

    NJRob (c844b3) — 10/12/2022 @ 11:35 am

    Nuke the PA.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  147. As missiles strike Ukraine, Israel won’t sell its vaunted air defense
    ……..
    Israel’s Iron Dome air defense, which boasts a 90 percent success rate against rockets fired against it, will stay out of Ukraine’s reach, experts said, as Jerusalem seeks to maintain strategic relations with Russia in Syria and other hot spots.
    ……..
    “Israel has great experience with air defense and Iron Dome, and we need exactly the same system in our city,” Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said in an interview Tuesday, a day after six residents were killed in the strikes. “We have been talking with them a long time about it. Those discussions have not been successful.”
    ……..
    …….. [M]ost analysts say the decision is driven by a perception that Israel cannot arm Ukraine directly without shattering its strategic cooperation with Russia in Syria and other hot spots that are a top priority for Israel.
    ……..
    “It’s just fear of Putin,” said Yossi Melman, a longtime intelligence analyst and commentator who has denounced Israel’s refusal to provide Iron Dome and other material aid as “morally oblivious.”
    ……..
    U.S. officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Israel’s Iron Dome stance and whether they would agree to a transfer. The system was developed with funding help from Washington, and both governments have veto power over proposals to share it.
    ……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  148. @134. It’s wholly relevant.

    Do. Your. Homework.

    DCSCA (442555)

  149. @143

    In that case, I think I’ll use the same strategy with other neighbors, and piece by piece enlarge my land holdings.

    norcal (a1f318) — 10/12/2022 @ 11:27 am

    Does those other neighbors have nukes or a member of NATO or similar alliance?

    whembly (b770f8)

  150. @144

    By the way, whembly, I respect you for answering my question instead of bobbing and weaving like some commenters do.

    I agree with you much of the time, incidentally.

    norcal (a1f318) — 10/12/2022 @ 11:28 am

    Thanks.

    I’m just trying to see a way out, that’s all.

    I would love for Russia to go away, but they get a vote too.

    How do we avoid a scenario whereby Russia goes nuclear (or you bombing your neighbors in your example)???

    whembly (b770f8)

  151. @141

    Because they have fired 111 missiles at civilian targets in Ukraine, killing 19 (probably more) over the last two days?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/12/2022 @ 11:18 am

    @142

    And continued combat operations in Eastern Ukraine?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/12/2022 @ 11:20 am

    https://tass.com/politics/1521039

    MILITARY OPERATION IN UKRAINE11 OCT, 09:52
    ‘If proposal is filed:’ Lavrov on Putin-Biden meeting, talks with the West
    Sergey Lavrov noted that, if Turkey is ready to organize a dialogue between Russia and the West, it will be able to raise this issue during the meeting between Putin and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Astan

    Looks like Russia is willing to at least talk.

    whembly (b770f8)

  152. How do we avoid a scenario whereby Russia goes nuclear (or you bombing your neighbors in your example)???

    whembly (b770f8) — 10/12/2022 @ 12:11 pm

    The same way we’ve always avoided it–by having a credible threat of retaliation if Russia goes nuclear.

    We can’t just do what any nuclear state in the world wants (or cede territory after territory to it) because said state threatens to use nuclear weapons. It would set a bad precedent, and more nuclear blackmail would follow. We have to nip this in the bud.

    norcal (a1f318)

  153. >Not sure why the US is sticking its nose into a conflict between two of the most corrupt regimes in Europe.

    Because we think it’s fairly clear that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, the Baltics will be next, and that the operative analogy is *Munich*.

    And because a number of our allies, including the Baltics and Poland, also believe this. As do the scandinavians, which is why Finland and Sweden now want to join NATO.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  154. > Zelensky, by himself, appears to be doubling down. It’s going to take his allies to convince him that peace is the best outcome.

    If the US were invaded by a neighbor who occuppied a huge chunk of our country for a few months and then we were succesfully pushing them back out, would you support a peace treaty in which we gave up the occuppied land we hadn’t yet retaken?

    aphrael (4c4719)

  155. Whembly, at 140: given that Russia *signed a treaty promising to respect Ukraine’s borders*, what you’re basically saying is that a nuclear power can do anything it wants, and anyone who stands up to them is wrong.

    If that’s the standard, then we will have over 150 nuclear powers in the world within a generation.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  156. @152

    The same way we’ve always avoided it–by having a credible threat of retaliation if Russia goes nuclear.

    We can’t just do what any nuclear state in the world wants (or cede territory after territory to it) because said state threatens to use nuclear weapons. It would set a bad precedent, and more nuclear blackmail would follow. We have to nip this in the bud.

    norcal (a1f318) — 10/12/2022 @ 12:17 pm

    Sure.

    Are we credible though?

    It’s almost a Sophie’s choice dynamic here, I’m afraid. How far do you escalate and how close are we in either a full out world war or nuclear exchanges?

    whembly (b770f8)

  157. @155

    Whembly, at 140: given that Russia *signed a treaty promising to respect Ukraine’s borders*, what you’re basically saying is that a nuclear power can do anything it wants, and anyone who stands up to them is wrong.

    No.

    That’s NOT what I’m saying.

    Please don’t put words in my mouth.

    In an armed conflict, you have a nuclear super-power and a plucky non-nuclear nation.

    How do YOU ensure that Russia doesn’t use nuclear assets?

    If that’s the standard, then we will have over 150 nuclear powers in the world within a generation.

    aphrael (4c4719) — 10/12/2022 @ 12:24 pm

    The standard we should be advocating for is for no nations to use any nuclear assets.

    whembly (b770f8)

  158. ‘Arguably, the most dangerous moment in the Cuban Missile Crisis was not recognized until the Cuban Missile Crisis Havana conference, in October 2002. Attended by many of the veterans of the crisis, they all learned that on October 27, 1962, USS Beale had tracked and dropped signaling depth charges (the size of hand grenades) on B-59, a Soviet Project 641 (NATO designation Foxtrot) submarine. Unknown to the US, it was armed with a 15-kiloton nuclear torpedo. Running out of air, the Soviet submarine was surrounded by American warships and desperately needed to surface. An argument broke out among three officers aboard B-59, including submarine captain Valentin Savitsky, political officer Ivan Semyonovich Maslennikov, and Deputy brigade commander Captain 2nd rank (US Navy Commander rank equivalent) Vasily Arkhipov. An exhausted Savitsky became furious and ordered that the nuclear torpedo on board be made combat ready. Accounts differ about whether Arkhipov convinced Savitsky not to make the attack or whether Savitsky himself finally concluded that the only reasonable choice left open to him was to come to the surface. During the conference, McNamara stated that nuclear war had come much closer than people had thought. Thomas Blanton, director of the National Security Archive, said, “A guy called Vasily Arkhipov saved the world.”‘

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis

    DCSCA (442555)

  159. DCSCA,

    I understand you are casting Putin as Kennedy, the Ukranian invasion as the Bay of Pigs, Z as Castro, and Biden as Khruschev in your Cuban Missile Crisis analogy.

    I just don’t take that analogy seriously.

    Appalled (6f380d)

  160. @159. Clearly, you understand nothing.

    Do. Your. Homework.

    DCSCA (442555)

  161. We should absolutely be advocating for nobody to use nuclear assets.

    But giving Russia what it wants and has no moral or legal right to, out of fear that otherwise they will use nukes, encourages everyone to get them and constantly threaten to use them.

    Russia succeeding in detaching a single inch of Ukrainian land is an unacceptable rewarding of nuclear blackmail and encourages more nuclear blackmail.

    aphrael (d93e8c)

  162. No, DCSCA. I simply don’t accept your basic premise — that Ukraine and its people are the sport of great power conflict and their needs or wants deserve no consideration from anyone.

    Appalled (6f380d)

  163. @159. Clearly, you understand nothing.

    Do. Your. Homework.
    DCSCA (442555) — 10/12/2022 @ 12:41 pm

    DCSCA, spell it out for him. Only you should speak for you.

    felipe (484255)

  164. aphrael (d93e8c) — 10/12/2022 @ 12:55 pm

    I like your line of reasoning.

    felipe (484255)

  165. @161

    We should absolutely be advocating for nobody to use nuclear assets.

    But giving Russia what it wants and has no moral or legal right to, out of fear that otherwise they will use nukes, encourages everyone to get them and constantly threaten to use them.

    Russia succeeding in detaching a single inch of Ukrainian land is an unacceptable rewarding of nuclear blackmail and encourages more nuclear blackmail.

    aphrael (d93e8c) — 10/12/2022 @ 12:55 pm

    Wargame this out.

    Say Ukraine successfully pushes Russian forces out of Eastern Ukraine – are you comfortable that Putin wouldn’t use a tactical nuke to prevent that?

    What about Crimea? Say Ukraine is pushing back and setting their sites on Crimea – are you comfortable that Putin wouldn’t use a tactical nuke to prevent that?

    How ’bout this, what if, Russia sends a tactical nuke in Kyiv that kills Zelenyski – how should the world respond?

    My premise is this: Priority #1 is about disincentivizing the use of nuclear assets, more so than disincentivizing against future land grabs.

    A negotiated peace should be the utmost priority because, it can get worst.

    whembly (b770f8)

  166. A negotiated peace in which Russia achieves it’s war aims is an invitation for a race to proliferation followed by everyone who has nukes blackmailing everyone who doesn’t, until everyone has them.

    What you are advocating here is that Ukraine surrender and give Russia whatever it wants because Russia has nukes and they don’t.

    Give in to a bully and you invite more bullying, and we destroy what’s left of the rules based international order and replace it with one where the person most willing and able to threaten to use nukes controls everything.

    aphrael (d93e8c)

  167. Russia has never negotiated a peace, they just either withdraw or conquer – I say give the Ukrainians 12 pershing missiles with b83 multistage crowd pleasers – Have Nato fully support the move. Russia will withdraw – even from the Crimea. Russia fears the b83 and the stealth cruise missiles we dont acknowledge that we have.

    EPWJ (650a62)

  168. @162. Do. Your. Homework.
    ____

    @163. No point; he didn’t live through it and refuses to acknowledge the rhymes and parallels echoing the warnings from history. The key participants- nearly all of whom have passed- certainly learned and preached abundant caution. Too many younger pups refuse to hear it and simply bark noise over reason. And the critical points- don’t let the game take over– and to deescalate, give an adversary an out gets drowned out.

    DCSCA (f99551)

  169. @

    166 A negotiated peace in which Russia achieves it’s war aims is an invitation for a race to proliferation followed by everyone who has nukes blackmailing everyone who doesn’t, until everyone has them.

    What you are advocating here is that Ukraine surrender and give Russia whatever it wants because Russia has nukes and they don’t.

    Give in to a bully and you invite more bullying, and we destroy what’s left of the rules based international order and replace it with one where the person most willing and able to threaten to use nukes controls everything.

    aphrael (d93e8c) — 10/12/2022 @ 1:17 pm

    aphrael… that all works when you’re dealing with rational actors.

    Do you view Russia, ie. Putin, a rational actor here?

    Why do you think some in the US is trying so hard to prevent Iran from getting nukes? (it’s because many believes they won’t be rationale).

    whembly (b770f8)

  170. Say Ukraine successfully pushes Russian forces out of Eastern Ukraine – are you comfortable that Putin wouldn’t use a tactical nuke to prevent that?

    What about Crimea? Say Ukraine is pushing back and setting their sites on Crimea – are you comfortable that Putin wouldn’t use a tactical nuke to prevent that?

    How ’bout this, what if, Russia sends a tactical nuke in Kyiv that kills Zelenyski – how should the world respond?

    Ukraine successfully driving out the Russians from their territory (including Crimea) would demonstrate that the Russian Army (and its leadership) have given up and Putin has lost control of his military-a highly unlikely prospect. However, if Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon, it is all on him. He has been consistently warned that using a nuclear weapon would produce “unprecedented consequences,” a “physical response” from NATO, and “catastrophic consequences”. He knows that there will be a reaction from the West.

    Until Russia demonstrates that it wishes to end the fighting, say with a unilateral ceasefire, the point is moot.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  171. @165, I think both sides have war-gamed this out. AllahNick had a decent post on this the other day. I don’t see where Russia gains an advantage by launching a tactical nuke. The Ukrainian troops are not clustered in such a way that this would be decisive on the battlefield. The world’s response would also be harsh, with Russia not only isolated further, but also potentially keeping China and India from further support. NATO will likely strike and Russia may lose its Black Sea fleet or suffer decisive air attacks on its forces. If fallout drifts into NATO countries, the response my even be worse with no hope of normalization. Putin does not have the army to take on NATO. The Russian oligarchs do not want to be isolated from the west and its businesses, schools, and culture. The Russian military does not want to be smacked further for Putin’s ambitions/miscalculations. I think Putin realizes that a tactical strike will all but assure his removal, and moving forward with it might even trigger a revolt then and there. His legacy would be eviscerated. It’s all he has left.

    Putin doesn’t want to end Russia and he’s not crazy enough to put us on an escalation path provided subordinates even went along. He’s playing the nuke card because he hopes it pressures western countries to cut bait. We should take it seriously and soberly, but see it for what it is….

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  172. Let me try a different angle guys…

    Some of you are arguing that what Putin is doing tantamount to nuclear blackmail.

    You are right. It absolute IS blackmail.

    How do you stop it?

    How far are you willing to go?

    I keep reading “he knows what the reaction will be” or along that vein… but, my question to your is this: what does that exactly mean. Spell it out. Wargame it out to the next logical step.

    whembly (b770f8)

  173. @171AJ_Liberty (5f05c3) — 10/12/2022 @ 1:52 pm

    That’s exactly what I was looking for among our peers here, and to me, what AllahNick has posited makes all the sense in the world, so long as Putin is a rational actor here.

    Are we SURE that Putin (and the powers-that-be in Russia) will remain a rationale actor during this conflict.

    In other words, what if we’re wrong and we’ve miscalculated. The loss of life and the WAY of life is incalculable.

    I know many of us is rooting for Ukraine to succeed and for Putin to run with his tail between his legs. Hell, I’m rooting for that too.

    But, we really need deal with consequences that are really out of our control, especially when we’re dealing with warring nations. Then, throw into that pile that one adversary is a nuclear armed adversary.

    Sometimes, peace, where NO ONE gets 100% satisfaction, MAY simply save more lives than to continue a conflict that risks to spiral out of control AND also risk a nuclear confrontation.

    whembly (b770f8)

  174. I think both sides have war-gamed this out.

    All evidence to the contrary:

    Biden: Risk of nuclear ‘Armageddon’ highest since 1962 Cuban missile crisis

    https://www.ksl.com/article/50490634/biden-risk-of-nuclear-armageddon-highest-since-1962-cuban-missile-crisis

    Biden: I don’t think Putin will use nuclear weapons – Politico.com

    DCSCA (f99551)

  175. DCSCA:

    @163. No point; he didn’t live through it and refuses to acknowledge the rhymes and parallels echoing the warnings from history. The key participants- nearly all of whom have passed- certainly learned and preached abundant caution. Too many younger pups refuse to hear it and simply bark noise over reason. And the critical points- don’t let the game take over– and to deescalate, give an adversary an out gets drowned out.

    As a technical matter, I did live through the Cuban Missile Crisis. I was a bit young to realize what was going on, though. 😉

    The problem with the Ukraine (and what us commenters are struggling with) is that Putin refuses to give himself an out. Declaring victory and going home after securing a promise of Ukraine being Finland would have probably worked after the failure of the Kiev invasion. Each time he loses on the battlefield (be it the Moska, the bridge, Kharkiv province), he amps up the missile attack, demands that his army hold territory that they should retreat from (Lyman), doubles down again because by golly, this is the time he wins and his wrath must be feared. It is a dangerous situation. To award Putin the territory he sought through invasion is also dangerous. He’d likely do it again. And the Chinese would feel better about how the US would handle Taiwan. Balancing all these risks is what we expect governments to do.

    Ultimately, the risk the US saw in 1962 with missiles in Cuba is the risk we have from ICBMs in 2022. A world where the US backed down probably would not have been any less safe, though the political ramifications here would have been — interesting.

    Appalled (03f53c)

  176. Spell it out. Wargame it out to the next logical step.

    Putin deploys nuke against Ukraine.

    NATO conventional troops go in and wipe out all Russian and separatist troops on Ukrainian territory, the Crimea, and the Black Sea, and return all seized territory, including the Crimea, to Ukraine.

    If Putin deploys nuclear weapons against the said NATO troops, we go to DEFCON 1 and toast his dupa.

    nk (998017)

  177. I don’t see where Russia gains an advantage by launching a tactical nuke. The Ukrainian troops are not clustered in such a way that this would be decisive on the battlefield.

    I can see Putin using a tactical nuke against command and control nodes, transportation centers, etc. He could also use one out of spite; if Putin is driven out of Eastern Ukraine, he could launch a weapon to contaminate Ukraine so that “if I (Putin) can’t have it, neither can the Ukrainians,” whom he and his supporters say doesn’t really exist.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  178. Come for the war gaming and unicorn farts…

    Nuclear war… now that is smart! Not Fredo-dumb, but smart!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  179. Lavrocv says nukes won;t be used unless regime is in danger

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  180. Lavrocv says nukes won;t be used unless regime is in danger

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a) — 10/12/2022 @ 2:44 pm

    Define danger-attacks on Russia proper or Putin in danger of being replaced?

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  181. @175. The problem with the Ukraine (and what us commenters are struggling with) is that Putin refuses to give himself an out.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZcRqkObP2U

    Do. Your. Homework. See if you can figure out who provided who an ‘out.’ [Hint- a quarantine arc contracts– and buys time! Who knew?! 😉 ]

    Alive but unaware means unaware. Those of us who were and witnessed it at ground level remain aware for life– and wary of barking young pups so easy to light off a nuclear exchange.

    The resolution to both crises is political, not military– and the ultimate objective – the fate of ol’Vlad, is already in the cards and will be played in time. And Russians will do it. Keep in mind: “Khrushchev’s fall from power two years later [after the Cuban Missile Crisis] was in part because of the Soviet Politburo’s embarrassment at both Khrushchev’s eventual concessions to the U.S. and this ineptitude in precipitating the crisis in the first place. According to Dobrynin, the top Soviet leadership took the Cuban outcome as “a blow to its prestige bordering on humiliation.”– source, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis

    De-escalation is the goal in the immediate; hence young, corrupt Fidel Zelinsky calling for pre-emptive NATO nuke strikes doesn’t help.

    DCSCA (f99551)

  182. It’s not a small snag in peace negotiations, whembly, when one side doesn’t even recognize Ukraine’s right to exist.
    This is why I said yesterday that Putin and his Russian state need a major mental reset, which includes recognizing Ukraine and giving up their ambitions for empire and settle for the 6.6 million square miles they already have. If Putin doesn’t have such a reboot, then I suggest someone in the Kremlin needs to reboot him.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  183. DCSCA:

    Based on your reading of the situation, should the US tell the Ukraine to give up what Russia occupies? Try saying what you mean. Cause I’m not going to watch your TV show.

    Appalled (f9c2cd)

  184. @183. Cause I’m not going to watch your TV show.

    Ignorance is bliss. Stay happy!

    DCSCA (f99551)

  185. @176. Pfffft. Thank you, Curt LeMay.

    “I’ll tell you one thing, Kenny. Those brass hats have one big advantage. That is, if we do what they want us to do, there’s none of us gonna be alive to tell them they were wrong.” – JFK [Bruce Greenwood] ‘Thirteen Days’ 2000

    DCSCA (f99551)

  186. nk (998017) — 10/12/2022 @ 2:24 pm

    That was vivid, man. V.I.V.I.d.

    felipe (484255)

  187. We’re still the ones who knock, felipe. The comrades carrying Putin’s heavy water should be careful not to drink any of it. It causes sterility.

    nk (998017)

  188. “Are we SURE that Putin (and the powers-that-be in Russia) will remain a rationale actor during this conflict. In other words, what if we’re wrong and we’ve miscalculated [?]”

    One man does not launch a nuke. You have to bet that multiple chains in the command are willing to sacrifice everything they have and everything they will ever have for one man’s ambition. If these were religious zealots, maybe. Even nationalists understand that there’s no going back from a detonation.

    Second, Putin is a KGB guy…the former head of the FSB….before pushing into politics. You don’t get there and stay there by being irrational and illogical. Don’t confuse brutal and unmerciless for unhinged. Could he miscalculate again? Sure, but the likely outcomes he faces are Armageddon or a major attack on his depleted and weary army. His country would become an even greater pariah and would single-handedly bring the rest of the region into NATO. He ain’t stupid. He’s blackmailing to try and get better terms.

    There’s been nothing irrational about Putin’s plan. It was rational for him to expect that the EU would back down because of their energy dependence. It was rational to think Biden wouldn’t have the wherewithal to object, especially after betting big on leaving Afghanistan. It was rational to think his army would overwhelm Ukraine. We simply don’t see a pattern of irrationality.

    So if he’s rational, then he knows that a nuke spells doom for him and his country. He won’t gamble them…..

    AJ_Liberty (30343e)

  189. I think it would be easy to negotiate a deal where Russia agrees not to use its nuclear capability in return for the Crimea, DPR, LPR and and everything on the east bank of the Dnieper from Kherson to Rostov on the Don.
    Then there is that nagging issue of Russia lying for at least the last century over nearly every deal they’ve made. The Soviet/German animus was really over each other reneging on dirty deals done dirt cheap, so as soon as the deal closes, the nuclear option goes back on the table.
    Look at one of the lies they used to justify the invasion/special operation that is totally not a war. De-nazification? One of the most ridiculous lying pretexts in their long history of whoppers

    steveg (173483)

  190. I think it would be easy to negotiate a deal where Russia agrees not to use its nuclear capability in return for the Crimea, DPR, LPR and and everything on the east bank of the Dnieper from Kherson to Rostov on the Don.

    Which is exactly the sort of deal Russia wants. It’s called nuclear blackmail.

    Rip Murdock (560c1d)

  191. De-nazification? One of the most ridiculous lying pretexts in their long history of whoppers

    steveg (173483) — 10/12/2022 @ 9:06 pm

    I had a long phone chat with a buddy tonight. He is steeped in MAGA world. He actually mentioned Nazis in Ukraine as one of the reasons Putin invaded.

    He also said that Trump’s meeting with the North Korean leader was productive because North Korea stopped conducting missile tests for a time, and now they’re resuming under Biden.

    He thinks that if Trump runs again, he will win, and then proceed to clean house.

    I couldn’t believe how full of emotion and zeal he is.

    Nk is right. One cannot persuade a Trumper. They believe what they believe, and it’s just as powerful as religion.

    norcal (a1f318)

  192. I should clarify. In my friend’s case, his Trump zeal is even more powerful than religion. He claims to be Christian, but never goes to church, never reads the Bible, lies frequently, and often engages in un-Christian behavior. (In other words, he’s very much like Trump. No wonder he supports him so much.)

    He sure tows the line when it comes to MAGA world, however.

    Good lord. Trump has sure done a number on this country.

    norcal (a1f318)

  193. More entertaining Putin:

    https://youtu.be/lh4mDKnijlI

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  194. He also said that Trump’s meeting with the North Korean leader was productive because North Korea stopped conducting missile tests for a time, and now they’re resuming under Biden.

    Maybe Trump made a forceful point. Not everything Trump did was crazy.

    He thinks that if Trump runs again, he will win, and then proceed to clean house.

    IF he wins, I have no doubt that he’ll try to do just that. I wonder if the military will follow the orders.

    Nk is right. One cannot persuade a Trumper. They believe what they believe, and it’s just as powerful as religion.

    Luckily, their god is mortal.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  195. If Putin uses a nuke against Ukraine, the NATO forces in Poland will enter Ukraine and declare it under NATO protection.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  196. Maybe Trump made a forceful point. Not everything Trump did was crazy.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9) — 10/12/2022 @ 10:43 pm

    Not crazy. Degenerate.

    I’m sure Kim Jong-un was happy to suspend missile tests for a while in exchange for Trump giving him legitimacy on the world stage.

    It was heinous when Trump teamed up with Kim on Twitter to criticize Biden. A President should never make common cause with a dictator in order to take jabs at a domestic political opponent. It’s beyond the pale.

    norcal (a1f318)

  197. If Putin uses a nuke against Ukraine, the NATO forces in Poland will enter Ukraine and declare it under NATO protection.

    With shovels.

    DCSCA (c68223)

  198. Grave error:

    Biden says late son Beau ‘lost his life in Iraq’ during monument ceremony

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/biden-son-iraq-death

    Beau Biden died a civilian; a politician in Bethesda, Maryland.

    A sorry POS, be Joey POTUS.

    DCSCA (c68223)

  199. TrumpWatch: Day 2,165

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  200. oh america
    your trouble is tailor made
    wake up smell catfood

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  201. He thinks that if Trump runs again, he will win, and then proceed to clean house.

    A man his age? I don’t think they’ll assign him anything more strenuous than picking up bits of litter in the prison yard.

    nk (c08cd1)

  202. Personally, if Trump stays out of prison and declares that he is running again, I am going to avoid the sidewalks under tall buildings with windows in which he might be.

    nk (c08cd1)

  203. BTW, after we nuke Russia, do we let it sit for an additional minute to complete cooking?

    nk (c08cd1)

  204. I don’t get why so many folks are so cavalierly looking forward to exchanging nukes with Russia.

    Putin controls a bunch of nukes, so lets send our boys over there to punch him in the nose and see what he does. It will be fun.

    kaf (ca38e9)

  205. Moronic war-gaming and issuing insufferable, petty denunciations of the morality of others are teh new “side-hustles”, kaf.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  206. Haiku,

    Is your answer to leave Ukraine to its fate because Putin might use a tactical nuke? If it is — then yes, the wargaming would be silly, because you have your answer. If your answer is nuanced in any way, then somebody (not us commenters — but people with real time information) has to wargame.

    By the way, it isn’t immoral to decide defending Ukraine is not worth it to the US. You do have to deal with the consequences of that decision. You may not like them. My morality meter goes off when people praise Putin on how smart all this was or decide that Ukraine is not a nation but a mafia territory.

    Appalled (242997)

  207. Biden says late son Beau ‘lost his life in Iraq’ during monument ceremony

    The claim is based on the idea that he got a brain tumor because hewas in Iraq.

    Two big problems with that:

    1) I doubt he was anywhere near a burn pit for any length of time, if at all.

    2) Toxic smoke probably doesn’t result in that, and if it can, so can 100 other things.

    https:

    Sammy Finkelman (63a266)

  208. Kevin M @194.

    Maybe Trump made a forceful point. Not everything Trump did was crazy.

    I think part of it was that Trump scared him by reminding him that maybe his nukes wouldn’t work, or would be intercepted and shot down. (‘My bitton works”)

    Sammy Finkelman (63a266)

  209. “Khrushchev’s fall from power because he was hinting at abolishing the Soviet Academy of Sciences. That brought Kosygin into the plot.

    Sammy Finkelman (63a266)

  210. “My morality meter goes off when people praise Putin on how smart all this was or decide that Ukraine is not a nation but a mafia territory.”

    I don’t praise Putin and Ukraine is a nation… very corrupt, but then so is the current version of the USA.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  211. Something ending motivates people to take risks.

    In September, 1943, the Fascist Grand Council removed Mussolini, but Italy’s surrender later was botched.

    ANd the problem with Outin is, he has no Poliyburo that even theretically could remove him.

    Sammy Finkelman (63a266)

  212. Leave the war-gaming to those with the responsibility. Mook attempts at same are not much more than pathetic onanism.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  213. > Luckily, their god is mortal.

    So was Octavian.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  214. By the way, it isn’t immoral to decide defending Ukraine is not worth it to the US.

    It’s merely stupid.

    Risking thermonuclear war between the West- the U.S.- and Russia; ‘Armegeddon’ as Grim Reaper Joey cavalierly crows to raise cash; over corrupt Ukraine is brain-damaged stupid.

    ‘My morality meter goes off when people praise Putin on how smart all this was or decide that Ukraine is not a nation but a mafia territory.’

    Pfft. Morality is a transient. Do. Your. Homework.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZcRqkObP2U

    If you did, you’d learn to recognize a turf battle in a gang war whe you see one, the relevance and irrelevance of the players in the game and discover the wisdom in not agreeing with an adversary– but view and assess the immediate situation from their POV— which leads to developing an out and de-escalation.

    But no. So grab your salami! Hit it, Tom:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrbv40ENU_o

    DCSCA (e79c89)

  215. Moronic war-gaming and issuing insufferable, petty denunciations of the morality of others are teh new “side-hustles”

    You tell’em, Cosmo:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mzqn-bXTq0k

    DCSCA (e79c89)

  216. I don’t get why so many folks are so cavalierly looking forward to exchanging nukes with Russia.

    It is what it is. We’re not going to let Putin be the boss of us unless he’s the last boss standing.

    nk (ddfe17)

  217. Armegeddon’ as Grim Reaper Joey cavalierly crows to raise cash;

    They already paid.

    He was rewarding them by sharing inside information with them.

    Sammy Finkelman (63a266)

  218. What Lavrov said:

    http://www.frontnews.ge/en/news/details/43527

    The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Serhii Lavrov, stated that Russia’s use of nuclear response forces is possible only as a retaliatory measure designed to prevent the destruction of the state. He made a corresponding statement on October 11 on the air of one of the RosTV channels.

    Sammy Finkelman (63a266)

  219. DCSCA —

    One question — which can’t be answered with a Cuban Missile Crisis reference.

    Is the Ukraine a nation/ a nationality or not?

    While I’m interested in your thoughts (really), a yes or no will do.

    Appalled (f0d394)

  220. Here’s Vladimir Putin on the subject:

    Therefore, modern Ukraine is entirely the product of the Soviet era. We know and remember well that it was shaped – for a significant part – on the lands of historical Russia. To make sure of that, it is enough to look at the boundaries of the lands reunited with the Russian state in the 17th century and the territory of the Ukrainian SSR when it left the Soviet Union.

    The Bolsheviks treated the Russian people as inexhaustible material for their social experiments. They dreamt of a world revolution that would wipe out national states. That is why they were so generous in drawing borders and bestowing territorial gifts. It is no longer important what exactly the idea of the Bolshevik leaders who were chopping the country into pieces was. We can disagree about minor details, background and logics behind certain decisions. One fact is crystal clear: Russia was robbed, indeed.

    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/page/84

    Is this the stuff of your philosophy, DCSCA?

    Appalled (f0d394)

  221. @219. =yawn= Are the Sioux a nation/a nationality or not?

    If only Sitting Bull had a nuke. Would he have used it in the Custer Massacre Crisis– or harbored broken arrow reservations.

    ‘The Great Sioux Nation is the traditional political structure of the Sioux in North America. The peoples who speak the Sioux language are considered to be members of the Oceti Sakowin (Očhéthi Šakówiŋ, pronounced [oˈtʃʰetʰi ʃaˈkowĩ]) or Seven Council Fires. The seven-member communities are sometimes grouped into three regional/dialect sub-groups (Lakota, Western Dakota, and Eastern Dakota), but these mid-level identities are not politically institutionalized. The seven communities are all individual members of the historic confederacy. In contemporary culture, the designation is primarily a linguistic, cultural, and for some, political grouping.

    Since 2019, Sioux language has been an official language of South Dakota.

    In one of the oldest unresolved cases in U.S. legal history, United States v. Sioux Nation of Indians 448 U.S. 371 (1980), the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the United States was wrong in breaking the terms of the Fort Laramie Treaty of 1868, which forever exempted the Black Hills from all white settlement. When European Americans discovered gold there in 1874, miners swept into the area in a gold rush. The U.S. government reassigned the Lakota, against their wishes, to other reservations in western South Dakota, breaking up the Great Sioux Reservation into smaller portions.

    The Supreme Court awarded eight Sioux tribes $106 million in compensation—the 1877 value of $17.5 million, plus interest. The Sioux Nation has refused to accept the award, saying they want their land returned. The money is held in accounts at the Treasury Department, accruing interest. As of 2011, the accounts are estimated to be valued at over $1 billion.

    Historically, the Great Sioux Nation and the United States have had a turbulent relationship. [sound familiar to Rooskie/Ukraine watchers in the Peanut Gallery???] The last of the great American Indian battles – the Battle of Little Bighorn and the Wounded Knee Massacre – were fought between these two peoples.’ -source, wiki.BobUeckerteepeetalk.hotincleveland.babes

    Don’t give a damn about the Ukraine/Russian turf wars, Appalled. It is NOT an American problem. It is the responsibility of wealthy, modern Europe to manage the flare up of the third kinetic land war on their continent in 115 years- not the United States of America– and it is definitely not a financial burden to keep foisting upon a deeply in debt America to keep freely financing and arming one of the most corrupt regions in Eastern Europe, stoking the fires in a conflict with another corrupt entity– as Florida lay in ruins, our own cities and infrastructure increasingly decay and our Southern border remains wide open.

    DCSCA (651d2e)

  222. @188

    So if he’s rational, then he knows that a nuke spells doom for him and his country. He won’t gamble them…..

    AJ_Liberty (30343e) — 10/12/2022 @ 7:31 pm

    I’ll be honest here…

    “if” is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

    I sincerely pray you’re right.

    whembly (b770f8)

  223. @220. Do. Your. Homework:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZcRqkObP2U

    ROBERT MCNAMARA REFLECTS ON THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS

    https://alphahistory.com/coldwar/robert-mcnamara-reflects-cuban-missile-crisis-2003/

    DCSCA (651d2e)

  224. DCSCA,

    I figured you’d bring up tribal governments. And figured you wouldn’t really answer the question. Let me give you my take on what I see from you.

    You think Putin’s right — Russia and Ukraine are really part of one big country that would happily be together and the Ukranians just ought to accept that. It’s the only way you could keep pushing that stupid mafia gang analogy and think it’s serious.

    If you don’t like me putting words in your mouth, use some of your own. I’m kind of dense, so you should be plain. (Though “You might think so, but I could not possibly comment” is clear enough.)

    By the way, here is some homework for you:

    https://www.amazon.com/Bloodlands-Europe-Between-Hitler-Stalin/dp/0465031471

    Appalled (f0d394)

  225. @224. Answered. You just don’t like it.

    Do. Your. Homework.

    DCSCA (651d2e)

  226. Just in case…..

    ……Some estimates name Maine, Oregon, Northern California, and Western Texas as some of the safest locales in the case of nuclear war, due to their lack of large urban centers and nuclear power plants.
    ……
    “I am of the view that a rural area which is not downwind of a obvious target is the best place if you want to avoid fallout and other effects of the bomb. A good place would be a valley where the hills would give you some protection from heat and blast from bombs which go off [miles] from where you are,” Dr Mark R. StJ Foreman, an associate professor at Chalmers University of Technology in Göteborg, Sweden, told Newsweek.
    …….
    “A good place to be would be in an area which is in a rain shadow, the Rocky Mountains cause the rain clouds to release their water as rain. If you go further east from the Rockies then you will end up in a rain shadow,” Foreman said. “I would want to be in a rain shadow as rain can bring a lot of fallout out of the sky.
    ……
    “While surviving a large-scale nuclear attack is possible, the challenges post-detonation are to reconnect infrastructure and to reestablish supply lines,” Kathryn A. Higley, a professor at the School of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Oregon State University, told Newsweek. “That would potentially be a large undertaking.”
    ##########

    Related:

    Putin Have You Panicked? You Can Survive a Nuclear Exchange

    …….even at the height of Cold War tensions, a nuclear exchange was unlikely to go full Armageddon. Rather than waste warheads on cities, strategists would likely emphasize military targets. That’s still grim news for those in surrounding communities. Just how grim is detailed in FEMA’s Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation, updated in May of this year. Still, FEMA adds, “with careful planning, many lives can be saved and injuries mitigated” even in a city under attack. To survive if you’re at or near a target, says FEMA, “get inside, stay inside… Move to the lowest level/most interior portion of the building if possible.” Fallout is a concern specific to nuclear attack, but its dangers rapidly decline even in the worst affected areas.
    ……..

    Gallows humor.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  227. #225

    I have my answer, indeed. We’ll never see eye to eye on this because our central premise is different.

    Appalled (f0d394)

  228. “Answered. You just don’t like it. Do. Your. Homework.”

    This is a sign of an argument that is out of gas. I guess we will have to wait for the next release of talking points from Russian TV.

    AJ_Liberty (5f05c3)

  229. It’s funny that DC refused to answer with “yes” or “no” but instead opted for a rant, but not surprising.
    I’ll take his answer as the same as Putin’s, which is “no”, Ukraine does not have the right to exist, even though practically every nation on earth recognized the country a quarter century ago, including Putin’s own Russian Federation.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  230. @229. ROFLMAOPIP Rant to a RINO blowing his horn, horning IN on other nation’s business with other people’s lives and fortunes.

    You really need to start a new party.

    DCSCA (651d2e)

  231. @227. Pfft.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz8RjPAD2Jk

    “Now you might very well think that. But of course I couldn’t possibly comment.” – Francis Urquhart [Ian Richardson] ‘House Of Cards’ BBC TV, 1990

    DCSCA (651d2e)

  232. @228. This is a sign there’s nothing to argue; ’tis won, over and done.

    FIFY, Agarn.

    DCSCA (651d2e)

  233. Biden Interview Fails To Bring Ratings Lift For Jake Tapper’s Prime Time Debut On CNN

    Jake Tapper’s exclusive one-on-one interview with President Joe Biden made news, but it didn’t bring a ratings boost for the debut of CNN Tonight with Jake Tapper, which landed in third place behind Fox News Channel and MSNBC according to early overnight ratings data compiled by Nielsen.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/markjoyella/2022/10/12/biden-interview-fails-to-bring-ratings-lift-for-jake-tappers-prime-time-debut-on-cnn/?sh=4f18cb4f4c40

    It’s Putin’s fault.

    Earth to CNN: everybody’s watching the foxes on Fox.

    “Everything’s Jake.” – Johnny Hooker [Robert Redford] ‘The Sting’ 1973

    DCSCA (651d2e)


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