Patterico's Pontifications

9/10/2022

Ukraine and the Spirit of the Army

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 12:12 pm



Here’s the weird thing: by any actual reality-based measure, Vladimir Putin is not losing the war in Ukraine. He is winning the war in Ukraine. — Tucker Carlson, August 29, 2022

From this morning’s Washington Post:

CHUHUIV, Ukraine — After months on the edge of Russian occupation, and two days of heavy bombardment, residents of this beleaguered town came out Saturday to clean up — and celebrate, as a fast-moving Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed Russian forces into a stunning retreat from key strategic areas in the northeast Kharkiv region.

As the advancing Ukrainian troops regained lost territory with shocking speed, liberating the town of Balakliya and raising their blue-and-yellow flag over the city of Izyum, jubilant Ukrainians and officials in Kyiv and Western capitals indulged in a daring hope: maybe the grinding, stalemated war was swinging their way.

“Everything is going to be Ukrainian again,” cried Natalia Khubezhova, 48, who was one of dozens of festive residents of Chuhuiv out sweeping up glass and repairing doorways on the village hospital, which was struck by a rocket Friday. Tears ran from her eyes as she hailed the progress of Ukrainian soldiers, including her husband and son.

What explains this shift? It’s a complex problem, and Mencken reminded us that for every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. Still, don’t discount the “spirit of the army” — the fact that Ukraine has a strong reason to fight, and Russian troops have no reason at all to fight.

Leo Tolstoy wrote in War and Peace:

By long years of military experience he knew, and with the wisdom of age understood, that it is impossible for one man to direct hundreds of thousands of others struggling with death, and he knew that the result of a battle is decided not by the orders of a commander in chief, nor the place where the troops are stationed, nor by the number of cannon or of slaughtered men, but by that intangible force called the spirit of the army, and he watched this force and guided it in as far as that was in his power.

Tolstoy elsewhere proposed an equation similar to that describing the relationships between momentum, mass, and velocity:

In military affairs the strength of an army is the product of its mass and some unknown x.

Military science, seeing in history innumerable instances of the fact that the size of any army does not coincide with its strength and that small detachments defeat larger ones, obscurely admits the existence of this unknown factor and tries to discover it—now in a geometric formation, now in the equipment employed, now, and most usually, in the genius of the commanders. But the assignment of these various meanings to the factor does not yield results which accord with the historic facts.

Yet it is only necessary to abandon the false view (adopted to gratify the “heroes”) of the efficacy of the directions issued in wartime by commanders, in order to find this unknown quantity.

That unknown quantity is the spirit of the army, that is to say, the greater or lesser readiness to fight and face danger felt by all the men composing an army, quite independently of whether they are, or are not, fighting under the command of a genius, in two—or three-line formation, with cudgels or with rifles that repeat thirty times a minute. Men who want to fight will always put themselves in the most advantageous conditions for fighting.

The spirit of an army is the factor which multiplied by the mass gives the resulting force.

Having some nice High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems never hurts either.

114 Responses to “Ukraine and the Spirit of the Army”

  1. Hi. This post exists.

    Patterico (029a15)

  2. Its a great post Pat. Tucker is Glen Becking himself and I heard Fox is in discussions with Megan Kelly and Ben Shapiro. Strange, Tucker’s the highest rated program on Television, not just cable, but no one advertises on his show. O’Reilly was supposedly unreplaceable, but he was.

    Russia found out weapons don’t win wars – men and women fighting for their families do.

    EPWJ (650a62)

  3. And weapons.

    Patterico (029a15)

  4. true

    EPWJ (650a62)

  5. I posted before the start of the war that ukraine would not be the pushover that the “EXPERTS” said it would, not knowing how corrupt the russian army’s leadership was. By the way their is a good book on why the experts are always wrong. I thought their would be a house by house defense of kiev watching school children making molotov cocktails in their class rooms, because ukrainians hate russia as a person familiar with their history.

    asset (3bd92e)

  6. @2. You know what the difference is between Tucker Carlson and Bugs Bunny?

    Nothing.

    And the fact so many millions of Elmer Fudds never figure that out is what makes the media biz such a wonderfully lucrative enterprise.

    “Man, you’re never going to get any truth from us. We’ll tell you anything you want to hear; we lie like hell. We’ll tell you that, uh, Kojak always gets the killer, or that nobody ever gets cancer at Archie Bunker’s house, and no matter how much trouble the hero is in, don’t worry, just look at your watch; at the end of the hour he’s going to win. We’ll tell you any sh!t you want to hear. We deal in *illusions*, man! None of it is true! But you people sit there, day after day, night after night, all ages, colors, creeds… We’re all you know. You’re beginning to believe the illusions we’re spinning here. You’re beginning to think that the tube is reality, and that your own lives are unreal. You do whatever the tube tells you! You dress like the tube, you eat like the tube, you raise your children like the tube, you even *think* like the tube! This is mass madness, you maniacs! In God’s name, you people are the real thing! *WE* are the illusion!” – Howard Beale [Peter Finch] ‘Network’ 1976

    DCSCA (030713)

  7. Somebody send Tucker this video

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1568563472048193536

    steveg (ad36d2)

  8. Or this one.
    maybe mildly nsfw if you work at a Baptist Church

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1567596642966147077

    This is the one time I’d be glad to have a bag over my head

    steveg (ad36d2)

  9. I don’t understand why anyone believes that Trustfund Tucker knows anything about anything.

    Nic (896fdf)

  10. The Americans at Bastogne were outnumbered, outgunned and out of everything. They just wouldn’t give in. I don’t see the Russians holding the line anywhere, and once a rout starts it’s defeat in detail.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  11. I’m pretty sure that, when this is all over, we’d be wanting these people in NATO. I like them; they fight.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  12. @7/@8: Send Tucka this video instead– because he’d use it:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TUPUbvO0eU&t=2s

    DCSCA (030713)

  13. I don’t understand why anyone believes that Trustfund Tucker knows anything about anything.

    I doubt he could cook a scrambled egg.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  14. @13. It’s certain he can cook a Swanson TV Dinner.

    DCSCA (030713)

  15. You know what the difference is between Tucker Carlson and Bugs Bunny?

    That is so unfair to Bugs. Tucker is much closer to Daffy as seen in “Duck, Rabbit, Duck”

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  16. It’s certain he can cook a Swanson TV Dinner.

    I doubt one ever entered the house. The kitchen staff would have been fired.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  17. @16. Yummy, yummy, yummy he had mother’s love in his tummy: ‘In 1979, Carlson’s father married divorcée Patricia Caroline Swanson, an heiress to Swanson Enterprises, daughter of Gilbert Carl Swanson and niece of Senator J. William Fulbright.’ source, wikitrythesalisburysteakdinner.tinfoil.carbs

    DCSCA (030713)

  18. But back on topic.

    From the Open Thread: The Bulge

    https://twitter.com/TarmoJuntunen/status/1568227635641331713

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  19. Things are moving fast, and in Ukraine’s favor.
    Ukraine always had the will and they were always in the right. They just needed the means, which is happening. Slava Ukraini!

    “Why do I care what is going on in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia? And I’m serious. Why do I care? Why shouldn’t I root for Russia? Which I am.”
    […]
    “I don’t think that we should be at war with Russia. And I think we should probably take the side of Russia if we have to choose between Russia and Ukraine. That is my view.
    –Tucker Carlson, Putin fanboi and defender of evil, December 2019

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  20. Those Ukraine soldiers are fighting for their homes. The Russians are conscripts fighting for lies, and fear of their own side.

    And those weapons we designed for fighting Russia seem to work well.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  21. The next question is whether Putin would call this “special military operation” a war so he could trigger a general mobilization and conscript Russians to the front (because the people he’s sending there aren’t the best, bad decision), but doing so would be an admission that he’s losing, and I doubt the populace would take kindly to fighting an illegal immoral war.

    In addition to recruiting prisoners/psychiatric patients/homeless people, Russia has sent undocumented workers to Ukraine. The blindfolded man captured near Kharkiv is an Uzbek mercenary whose illegal status would have made it easier to send him to Ukraine

    By sending powerless “undesirables” to fight in Ukraine, Putin was hoping to avoid general mobilization that could destabilize his regime, but instead, he destabilized the Russian military, which is now failing in large part because of these poorly trained and unmotivated people.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  22. KevinM
    That map is great one.
    I think it was actually done by this guy
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1568723513099313159

    steveg (ad36d2)

  23. Zelensky: I don’t need transportation, I need ammunition.
    Putin: Russian prostitute are the best in the world.
    Carlson: From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

    nk (a62991)

  24. @23. Zelensky: I don’t need transportation, I need ammunition.
    Putin: Russian prostitute are the best in the world.
    Carlson: From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

    Biden: Putin knows, if I am president of the United States, his days of tyranny and trying to intimidate the United States and those in Eastern Europe are over.

    ROFLMAOPIP.

    DCSCA (f0be40)

  25. What gets me about all this is that the Biden Administration is doing all this with surprising competence. I wonder if there’s an opportunity for graft here; he’s usually best when there is.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  26. What gets me about all this is that the Biden Administration is doing all this with surprising competence.

    ROFLMAOPIP

    DCSCA (860a74)

  27. What gets me about all this is that the Biden Administration is doing all this with surprising competence.

    in the unlikely event ukraine wins every battle and recovers every piece of territory, they will simply be back to where they were nine months ago, minus many tens of thousands of lives and a ton of infrastructure

    competence would’ve involved finding a way such that the war never happened, without costing us anything, and that’s what we had before demented joe got involved

    we just passed the 83rd anniversary of the start of ww2, in which Germany conquered Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland and France in nine months

    Russia can’t even take Kiev in eight months, making the claims about putin’s threat to Europe look even more incredibly stupid than they did months ago

    JF (a14cf6)

  28. They will end up with everything back, plus Crimea, plus Putin’s balls. Then join NATO. With any luck, Trump will be dead, too.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  29. Don’t forget that Vietnam kicked China’s ass when China invaded in 1979. We shouldn’t be too shocked by Ukraine.

    norcal (da5491)

  30. If Putin’s propagandists were of Tolstoy quality, there would still be the Bell Curve to deal with.

    That’s why Putin needs to impose a fifteen-year prison sentence on Russians who don’t profess to believe it (the propaganda), and why the West overwhelmingly [it’s a word, look it up] supports Ukraine.

    The 75% of Americans who support supplying Ukraine with weapons are pats on the back for Brandon and fingers to Covfefe.

    nk (2b3b13)

  31. I think Winston Churchill called it “fighting spirit.”

    This is true only some of the time, or else the Indians would have won many more of the Indian wars in the United States.

    https://www.simplycharly.com/read/blog/a-fighting-spirit-how-winston-churchill-military-intelligence-saved-britain/

    But te real difference is military intelligence or mistakes.

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  32. 10. Kevin M (eeb9e9) — 9/10/2022 @ 2:36 pm

    , and once a rout starts it’s defeat in detail.

    It would be a good idea to try to get a Russian rout started. That could end the war, particularly, if Putin became afraid Ukraine could go on past …could be any line, but would stop if e begged for peace. Putin in panic mode might get him to stop and agree to return all prisoners and let them re-establish contact with all Ukrainian citizens now in Russia (once contacted, they seem to be able to leave if not yet directly to Ukraine – those not under arrest I mean. So this may not need to be a separate demand. Besides you would want Putin to end this war as soon, and in as panicky a way, as possible..)

    Sammy Finkelman (b434ee)

  33. competence would’ve involved finding a way such that the war never happened, without costing us anything, and that’s what we had before demented joe got involved

    No one expected Putin to invade two regions of Ukraine in 2014. That was all him, doing so illegally and without legitimate provocation. Sometimes bad actors do sh-t, JF.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  34. And Putin and Tucker might well consider it “winning”. How many Russians and Ukrainians are dying is no skin off their noses. How much it’s costing both nations is not coming out their pockets. They personally are sitting pretty. A psychopath’s “actual reality”.

    nk (2b3b13)

  35. nk (2b3b13) — 9/11/2022 @ 7:20 am

    ukraine thanks you for your personal sacrifice, nk

    JF (d1cafd)

  36. competence would’ve involved finding a way such that the war never happened, without costing us anything, and that’s what we had before demented joe got involved

    By “competence,” you must mean: Telling Ukraine they couldn’t have the military aid already allocated by Congress until they did a political favor for the U.S. president.

    As for how Biden “got involved” in a way that caused Putin to invade, you’ll have to explain that. But one thing we do know is that Biden didn’t regard Putin as more believable than our own IC, so instead of accepting Putin’s assurances that he was not going to attack, the administration announced the signs that he probably would — thus taking away the element of surprise.

    Neither Trump nor his cult followers have offered any hint of what Trump would have done to prevent Putin from attacking Ukraine, except to suggest that mere threats of retaliation by the orange god-king would have cowed Putin into submission. Of course, some of the Trump cultists took the position that the U.S. should not be helping Ukraine defend itself from Russian conquest. Some even characterized Putin’s attack as a way of defending “Russian civilization” from the U.S.-controlled “liberal imperium.”

    Russia can’t even take Kiev in eight months, making the claims about putin’s threat to Europe look even more incredibly stupid than they did months ago

    Oddly, I don’t recall any critics of NATO expansion (or of the continuing existence of NATO) predicating their critique on the idea that Russia is too much of a weakling to be any threat at all. It does have a large nuclear arsenal, which it has threatened to use. Not long ago, most of the people against helping the Ukrainians were saying there was no way they could defeat the Russians, so the best option was to “negotiate” how much of Ukraine to let Russia have.

    Your comment is rather dismissive of the immense suffering that Russia has inflicted on millions of Ukrainians over the past eight months — and the costs borne by many other nations as they’ve joined together (more or less) to restrain Russia.

    It also ignores one key difference from the WWII era: that the U.S. and European nations recognized the danger of letting Putin get away with seizing more territory, and immediately began helping the Ukrainians resist conquest. Another difference is the resolve and courage of the Ukrainians in fighting back.

    Radegunda (4099ce)

  37. Moderator — I typed my email wrong the first time. You can just delete that first try.

    Radegunda (4099ce)

  38. @33. No one expected Putin to invade two regions of Ukraine in 2014.

    You mean “no one” who wasn’t paying attention:

    “Russia has been a great power for centuries, and remains so,” Putin declared in front of Duma, or parliament, deputies on August 16, 1999, as he sought their approval for his prime ministership. “It has always had and still has legitimate zones of interest abroad in both the former Soviet lands and elsewhere.”

    https://asiatimes.com/2019/01/putins-plan-to-slowly-reclaim-russias-lost-empire/

    DCSCA (227b44)

  39. It seems that the Russian occupation is collapsing. The Ukrainians are, in places, about 3 miles from the Russian border.

    Local officials in the Kharkiv region say the Ukrainian flag has been raised in settlements close to the Russian border, confirming the continuing retreat of Russian forces in the area.

    Oleksandr Kulik, an official in Derhachi northeast of the city of Kharkiv, said that the Ukrainian flag had been raised by local residents in the town of Kozacha Lopan.

    Kozacha Lopan had been occupied by the Russians since March and was an administrative center for occupation authorities. It is five kilometers from the Russian border and has been extensively damaged during the conflict.

    Social media video provided by the Derhachi city council also showed residents of another settlement — Tokarivka — raising the Ukrainian flag there. Tokarivka is also close to the Russian border.

    Viktoriya Kolodochka, the head of the Tokarivka district, said Sunday: “The village was de-occupied this morning. People heard the roar of Russian military hardware. The Russians began to gather on their own in the morning and began to flee.”

    https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-11-22/h_3fa6197f8b99435f3d0395c0d941159f

    Ukraine’s defense ministry says its forces have advanced to a checkpoint near the Russian border in northeastern Ukraine. It posted a tweet with a video showing soldiers and captions saying that today “Hoptivka came under the control of the armed forces of Ukraine.” The claim could not be independently verified.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/11/world/ukraine-russia-war/125b5058-92ea-5670-ad37-d364bb71d761?smid=url-share

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  40. Here’s the weird thing: by any actual reality-based measure, Vladimir Putin has to be nothing but a major embarrassment to the Trump cult. Can you imagine Putin whining about a “rigged and stolen election”? I mean, really, think about it!

    The closest that Trump has come to being Putin, that I can see, is Judge Aileen Mercedes Cannon. And even with her, if she had ruled against him, all he would have done is called her a Mexican (she is Colombian born) and sued her to revoke her appointment.

    nk (a56588)

  41. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10, 2022
    ………
    Key Takeaways

    Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv Oblast are collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis, and Ukrainian forces will likely recapture Izyum itself in the next 48 hours.

    [Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.]

    The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the withdrawal of troops from the Balakliya-Izyum line on September 10, and the Russian MoD’s failure to set effective information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space.

    The withdrawal announcement and occupation authorities’ failure to organize evacuation measures is further alienating the Russian milblogger and Russian nationalist communities that support the Kremlin’s grandiose vision of capturing the entirety of Ukraine.

    Ukrainian forces reached positions within 15–25km of the Russo-Ukrainian border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, Izyum’s northern outskirts, and Lyman’s south and southwestern outskirts, and captured the western half of Kupyansk.

    Russian forces are reinforcing frontline positions in Kherson Oblast while Ukrainian forces conduct positional battles and continue their interdiction campaign against Russian logistics lines.

    Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv City, south of Bakhmut, and west of Donetsk City.
    Russian recruitment drives are generating some criticism among Russian milbloggers and regions.

    Russian forces are reportedly intensifying filtration measures in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensives on the Southern Axis.
    ……….

    Situation maps at link.

    Rip Murdock (354535)

  42. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10, 2022-Kherson Oblast
    ……..
    …….. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces have advanced tens of kilometers in some unnamed areas of Kherson Oblast and noted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is pushing Russian forces to retreat to their second lines of defenses. Humenyuk added that Russian forces continue to resist Ukrainian attacks and retain ammunition and supplies on the frontlines, but Russian units are suffering heavy losses. The Ukrainian General Staff, for example, stated that unspecified elements of the Russian 106th Guards Airborne Division operating in Kherson Oblast lost over 58 servicemen in one day. ….. Ukrainian forces destroyed another Russian ferry crossing over the Dnipro River in Lvove (west of Nova Kakhovka) and an ammunition depot in Bilyaivka in northern Kherson Oblast. Russian forces are also reportedly attempting to repair the collapsed Kakhovka Bridge.

    Social media footage of strikes, explosions, and activated Russian air defense systems indicates Ukraine’s interdiction campaign against Russian logistics in Kherson Oblast continued on September 10. Kherson City Telegram channels and media outlets reported a powerful explosion at a local military recruitment center in Kherson City, which housed newly arrived Russian personnel and military staff. Ukrainian sources also reported explosions in Kherson City’s industrial zone and in the area of the Antonivsky Railway Bridge. ……
    ……..
    The Russian MoD did not comment on the progress of the Ukrainian southern counteroffensive on September 10. A Kremlin-affiliated war correspondent stated that Russian reporters in Kherson Oblast have strict restrictions on publishing combat footage and noted minimal use of commercially-available drones.
    ………

    Footnotes omitted.

    Rip Murdock (354535)

  43. Mr. Muzyka has a thread

    Kharkiv Oblast is either fully liberated or will soon be liberated. I think that just as Russians could not recover from losses suffered north or Kyiv, which ultimately proved determinantal to their failures elsewhere in the second stage of this war

    This part is interesting…

    LPR, apart from frontline areas, is probably empty of manpower. Mass round-ups that occurred over the past few months mean that there are no men to fight in Luhansk. Defences aren’t echeloned either. A rout in LPR could be as fast as in Kharkiv.

    Putin can’t conscript Russians into fighting in Ukraine without a general mobilization, but he can conscript Ukrainians in the conquered territories for use as cannon fodder.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  44. @34. How much it’s costing both nations is not coming out their pockets.

    Pfft. Step away from the bong, nk.

    Since no U.S. ‘war bonds’ have been peddled by the Joe Show to finance the cost of “giving” munitions freely to the corrupt regime of Bugs Moran, that cost is certainly is coming out of your pocket as well as every other American. While at the same time, Squinty’s policy remains supporting “allies”- including several NATO members and their firms- along with several American companies as well, to continue to ‘do business’ w/Vladimir, Inc., and finance him beyond energy resources.

    The list updated as of today:

    https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain

    Suckers.

    DCSCA (0c6b56)

  45. The closest that Trump has come to being Putin, that I can see, is Judge Aileen Mercedes Cannon.

    I don’t understand. She’s as qualified as any number of district court judges (as in “passably”). Did Trump threaten her he’d suicide her out a high window or something?

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  46. but he can conscript Ukrainians in the conquered territories for use as cannon fodder.

    Absolutely guaranteed to polarize these erstwhile pro-Russian areas towards Ukraine for decades to come. Ask a Czech about 1968. Ukraine will be joining NATO before the next presidential election.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  47. Moscow Officials Urge Putin to GTFO: ‘Everything Went Wrong’
    Just one day after several municipal deputies in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg called on the State Duma to try the Russian leader for treason, their colleagues in Moscow joined in and demanded he step down because his views are “hopelessly outdated.”

    The open letter to Putin from municipal deputies in the Russian capital’s Lomonosovsky district started out by seemingly trying to let him down gently……

    But then, “everything went wrong,” the deputies.

    “The rhetoric that you and your subordinates use has been riddled with intolerance and aggression for a long time, which in the end effectively threw our country back into the Cold War era. Russia has again begun to be feared and hated, we are once again threatening the whole world with nuclear weapons,” the letter read.

    “We ask you to relieve yourself of your post……
    ………
    The same Russian propagandists who’d spent the first six months of the war thumping their chests about a supposedly “inevitable victory” suddenly changed their tune. Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of RT who’d repeatedly called for Moscow to mercilessly obliterate Ukraine, suddenly posted a sentimental screed on Twitter calling for unity between the two nations.
    ………
    Even the pro-Kremlin Telegram channels run by Russian military bloggers had a dramatic change of tune as Ukraine claimed new wins Saturday: They began to openly blast military leadership—and Putin personally—for the embarrassing failures.
    ………

    Related:

    Police pursue local Russian lawmakers who urged charging Putin with treason

    Rip Murdock (354535)

  48. Turnover among Russian generals is speeding up.

    (Durin World War II, a Darwinian process gradually improved the quality of the Soviet non-coms and lower level officers. They had some good top men, Georgy Zhukov, for example, from the begining, but they never caught up with the Nazis in quality at the middle levels .

    Now, it seems that they don’t have many good non-coms and officers at any level. Perhaps because of the pervasive corruption?)

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  49. Morale seems high
    https://t.me/rysnya200/3401 (this link may be nsfw because it has a lot of dead Russian soldiers on the site. I do not recommend scrolling around over there. I did and was reminded the hard way that “200” is slang over there for KIA)
    Ukrainians watching the war map in a sports bar.
    The fans go wild.

    steveg (cffd1a)

  50. Russian nationalists rage after stunning setback in Ukraine
    ………
    As Russian forces abandoned town after town on Saturday, Putin was opening Europe’s largest ferris wheel in a Moscow park, while fireworks lit up the sky over Red Square to celebrate the city’s founding in 1147.

    ………Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, ……..conceded the campaign was not going to plan.

    “If today or tomorrow changes are not made in the conduct of the special military operation, I will be forced to go to the country’s leadership to explain to them the situation on the ground,” said Kadyrov.
    ……..
    Neither Putin, who is Russia’s supreme commander-in-chief of the armed forces, nor Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had publicly commented on the defeat as of midday on Sunday.
    ………
    “They’re taking the p1ss,” wrote one prominent, pro-war military blogger on Telegram, who posts under the name of Rybar.

    “Now is not the time to shut up and say nothing … this seriously hurts the cause.”
    ……….
    Igor Girkin, a nationalist militant and former FSB officer ……..compared the collapse of one of the conflict’s principal front lines to the 1905 Battle of Mukden – a catastrophic defeat in the Russo-Japanese war which triggered Russia’s 1905 Revolution.
    ……..
    Girkin, who has been unsparing in his criticisms of the country’s top brass, dubbing defence minister Shoigu “the cardboard marshal”, has said repeatedly that Russia will be defeated in Ukraine if it doesn’t declare a nationwide mobilisation.
    ……..
    One message reposted on Telegram by the prominent war correspondent Semyon Pegov referred to the celebrations in Moscow as “blasphemous” and the refusal of Russian authorities to embark on full-scale war as “schizophrenic”.

    “Either Russia will become itself through the birth of a new political elite … or it will cease to exist,” it read.
    ########

    This is so SAD!

    Rip Murdock (354535)

  51. What’s really amazing me is that Reagan was the guy behind a lot of the best weapons. I operated MLRS for a few years on active duty and got into a few prototype versions. That HIMARS is a variant of technology that Reagan brought in to win the cold war, which let’s be honest, he absolutely did, and of course, he’s kicking Russia’s ass again today with that leadership.

    Stands in stark contrast to what Trump’s leadership will lead to with respect to stabbing the kurds in the back, collusion with the world’s darkest governments, etc, or Obama and Biden joining Trump to undo any success our blood earned in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    It probably serves our nation if this conflict lasts a lot longer, but Russia is crumbling so fast I don’t know if it will. Putin and his pals went from stability and comfort to watching their backs, and that’s probably the most important lesson China can take. Don’t underestimate American innovation or the west’s resolve. We screw around a lot, like when Trump and Biden gave the Taliban back their mojo, but we don’t have armies for marching around squares. We actually do know how to fight, and have been fighting, over and over and over and over. Something to consider.

    Dustin (a87c64)

  52. It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory
    ………
    ……… A new reality has been created: The Ukrainians could win this war. Are we in the West really prepared for a Ukrainian victory? Do we know what other changes it could bring?

    …….. (Yesterday,) Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov (told) an audience that victory should now include not only a return to the borders of Ukraine as they were in 1991—including Crimea, as well as Donbas in eastern Ukraine—but also reparations to pay for the damage and war-crimes tribunals to give victims some sense of justice.

    These demands are not in any sense outrageous or extreme. ……

    ……… It is hard to imagine how Russia can meet any of these demands—territorial, financial, legal—so long as its current president remains in power. Remember, Vladimir Putin has put the destruction of Ukraine at the very center of his foreign and domestic policies, and at the heart of what he wants his legacy to be. …….

    ………(W)hen Russian elites finally realize that Putin’s imperial project was not just a failure for Putin personally but also a moral, political, and economic disaster for the entire country, themselves included, then his claim to be the legitimate ruler of Russia melts away. ……..We must expect that a Ukrainian victory, and certainly a victory in Ukraine’s understanding of the term, also brings about the end of Putin’s regime.

    To be clear: This is not a prediction; it’s a warning.. ……. It is inconceivable that he can continue to rule if the centerpiece of his claim to legitimacy—his promise to put the Soviet Union back together again—proves not just impossible but laughable.
    ……..
    The possibility of instability in Russia, a nuclear power, terrifies many. But it may now be unavoidable. …….
    #########

    Rip Murdock (354535)

  53. It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory

    You know, some people take medication for those kind of thoughts. But magazine writers have to publish something or they don’t get paid.

    nk (444166)

  54. …Reagan brought in to win the cold war, which let’s be honest, he absolutely did, and of course…

    =yawn= Honestly. Takes two to tango; read it and weep, kid:

    Let’s stop revising history: Reagan didn’t win the Cold War

    https://thehill.com/opinion/international/478941-lets-stop-revising-history-reagan-didnt-win-the-cold-war/

    Dismissing the continuity of administrations maintaining a post-WW2 foreign policy of containment– by the likes of HST, Ike, JFK, LBJ, The Big Dick, GRF, JEC, RWR and GHWB ain’t gonna win you points on Jeopardy! fella. Bet you’re still waiting for your ‘peace dividend,’ too. 😉

    DCSCA (495230)

  55. Russian Major-General lyrics by Andrej Nkv (Twitter):

    I am the very model of a Russian Major General
    My standing in the battlefield is growing quite untenable
    My forces, though equipped and given orders unequivocal
    Did not expect the fight to be remotely this reciprocal

    I used to have a tank brigade but now I have lost several
    My fresh assaults are faltering with battleplans extemporal
    I can’t recover vehicles but farmers in a tractor can
    It’s all becoming rather reminiscent of Afghanistan

    My ordnance is the best but only half my missiles make it there
    I would have thought by now that we would be controllers of the air
    But at the rate the snipers work my time here is ephemeral
    I am the very model of a Russian Major General

    https://twitter.com/andrejnkv/status/1507365192405073920

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  56. Let’s stop revising history: Reagan didn’t win the Cold War

    Let’s stop. You first. You are the one revising.

    He did. His plan, his administration brought therm to their knees. He broke their economy by getting the to use their hard currency to compete with out credit cards. At the end, over 50% of the Soviet economy was being spent on the military and they fell behind every year. At Reykjavik, he offered Gorbachev a way out, and he took it.

    To say “Reagan’s deeply personal diplomatic engagement with a moderate, reform-minded Soviet leader fostered the liberalizing changes that ushered in the collapse of the USSR” (as your source does) and then assert Reagan had nothing to do with it is absurd. It’s true that Reagan did that, but first he put their backs to the wall, before making them an incredibly fair offer they could not refuse.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  57. *getting them to use their hard currency to compete with our credit cards.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  58. This was will end slowly, then all at once.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  59. One thing is incontrovertible: Putin is all in. Even if he withdraws and shoots ALL the generals, he’s still undone.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  60. I’m curious to see where Putin lands in this. Will he accidentally fall out of a three-story window. Seems like that happens a lot over there. Maybe the citizens seize a ripe opportunity and take to the streets and finally, finally push back with all their might and win. Maybe Navalny is released and is voted in as president. Maybe the ogliarchs are happy to stay away because of the wrath they would face from the people. Maybe the military, weakened and shamed, join the citizens of Russia and say ‘enough’. Maybe the Kremlin sees the writing on the wall…

    Dana (1225fc)

  61. Best bet for Putin (assuming he loses badly in Ukraine): a deal with Navalny like the one that Yeltsin made with him, allowing him to retire to his dacha with his whores.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  62. Dana
    From Darth Putin, here is an idea on how Putin would kill Putin. We will see if others are as capable

    “2 yrs ago I promised to set up commission to investigate how a Russian in Russia on a Russian plane going to Russia from Russia consumed a Russian nerve agent only Russia has. And then blame Poland.”

    steveg (5f7e37)

  63. #61 All good thoughts, Dana. (Though I might prefer at least a five-story window, just to make sure.)

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  64. I’m curious to see where Putin lands in this.

    At worst, like Khrushchev or Gorbachev, would be my guess. The nomenklatura will appoint another apparatchik to keep the caviar supply flowing. They will not want to stir things up any more than is necessary.

    The people will remain Russians. Which is to say, happy to have a short line at the grocery store and a pair of shoes to walk there with. That, with a bottle of vodka for three druz’ya to share along with their squalor will be enough for them.

    nk (4f452c)

  65. I dunno, nk, seems like the time is ripe for a rebellion. This is 2022 and they know the West is not going to be a willing go-to to help relieve their misery without some very serious concessions. Young people are angry about being dragged into this doomed effort in Ukraine, so maybe the time has come. Surely if Navalny were out of prison and able to reach the masses more effectively, they might coalesce in an effective way to oust Putin.

    Dana (1225fc)

  66. As bad as that vodka may be, it beats samogon made using a car radiator with anti freeze residue, which is what you get when your squalor is that palpable.
    The standing Ukrainian joke is that Russians crush everything with artillery to makes themselves feel more at home.

    The Irish say whisky was invented to keep the Irish from ruling the world.
    Well, it seems vodka was invented to keep Russians face down in the rapustita

    steveg (5f7e37)

  67. You could be right, Dana. I admit that my view of Russian politics is jaundiced. Democracy in Russia is like Communism in Russia. Old Soviet joke:

    Radio Yerevan was asked: We are told that communism is already seen at the horizon. Then, what is a horizon?

    Answer: A horizon is an imaginary line which moves away each time you approach it.

    nk (4f452c)

  68. Let’s stop. You first. You are the one revising.

    He did. His plan, his administration brought therm to their knees. He broke their economy by getting the to use their hard currency to compete with out credit cards. At the end, over 50% of the Soviet economy was being spent on the military and they fell behind every year. At Reykjavik, he offered Gorbachev a way out, and he took it.

    To say “Reagan’s deeply personal diplomatic engagement with a moderate, reform-minded Soviet leader fostered the liberalizing changes that ushered in the collapse of the USSR” (as your source does) and then assert Reagan had nothing to do with it is absurd. It’s true that Reagan did that, but first he put their backs to the wall, before making them an incredibly fair offer they could not refuse.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9) — 9/11/2022 @ 5:23 pm

    He’s just saying the absurd for reaction. This guy was insisting Ukraine wouldn’t even be invaded (again). Most of his delight at Trump is the damage he did to Reagan’s achievements. The guy despises the republican party and frankly he despises a lot of things. Not worth our time.

    I just love that Putin, who used Trump to harm America, is still being crushed by a legacy of Reagan. I’m sure that is cause for much bitterness over in that cold, sad country, and it makes me laugh.

    nk is right that the people there don’t expect a whole lot. Unlike America, they have never had a great leader. What’s our excuse?

    Dustin (a87c64)

  69. I’m curious to see where Putin lands in this.

    I’d be satisfied with a bullet in the head.

    Rip Murdock (354535)

  70. @57. =yawn= Except he didn’t. And he’d be the first to tell consistent U.S. foreign policy over multiple administrations post WW2 was responsible- including your beloved, open-the-door-to-China-Big-Dick, as well as the compromising of another essential individual to generate change: the late Mikhail Gorbachev. Without his participation, Reagan’s policies were DOA. But don’t worry. Keep pitching your geopolitical fairy tales of Vlad nuking the very territory he wants to reclaim rendering it inhabitable and useless and the corrupt Ukraine winning back everything -including Crimea— just like South Vietnam did all “on their own” =sarc=. It’s quaint.

    @58. Unlike America, they have never had a great leader.

    Hmmmmm. Start with Peter the Great. Ignorance is bliss; stay happy!

    DCSCA (1bdf55)

  71. It’s most certainly wishful thinking on my part, nk, but someone has to hold out hope for those Russians who are fed up with living under the boot of Putin and his thugs.

    Dana (1225fc)

  72. This is 2022 and they know the West is not going to be a willing go-to to help relieve their misery without some very serious concessions.

    The West isn’t exactly stifling relief, if you care to bother to peruse the list of businesses and industries beyond the energy sector of allies and NATO members which are still financing Vladimir, Inc. It’s disgusting:

    https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain

    DCSCA (1bdf55)

  73. #MeToo, Dustin. Whether we like it or not, we are going to have to share the world with them.

    nk (4f452c)

  74. I’m sorry! Not Dustin. Dana. It’s my evening for commenting snafus.

    nk (4f452c)

  75. Well I agree with Dana too. That’s what I was hoping the internet would accomplish. Unfortunately it’s skewed our perception of America, freedom, protest, politics, and I’m not sure what someone living under a boot really understands or wants. Russia has the tools, and hopefully finds the will. We’re lucky in America that the will was there at some point.

    Dustin (a87c64)

  76. …seems like the time is ripe for a rebellion.

    They had one; 1991-1993; Yeltsin saved Gorby’s butt from the coup; the USSR dissolved; Yeltsin became president of the Russian Federation, crime and corruption flourished as Roll-Royces and Big Macs were sold in Red Square– and Yeltsin brought in… Putin.

    DCSCA (455aef)

  77. On January 1, 1992, Yeltsin signed accords with U.S. President George H. W. Bush, declaring the Cold War officially over after nearly 47 years. – source, wikibio.Boris.vodka

    Reagan vacated the WH January 20, 1989. Attaboy, Pappy Bush! You won the Cold War! Now where;s that peace dividend??? 😉

    DCSCA (455aef)

  78. I see some sweet deals in the future for those who prefer the Kalashnikov system to the Armalite system: “Russian AK-74 in 5.45×39. Only dropped once.

    nk (ac6f7a)

  79. Video of a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft crashing right after take off reportedly in Crimea.

    Wreckage of a Russian Su-25SM air support jet (NATO code name Frogfoot).

    Sad!

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  80. https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1569321565531115523 Tucker has not changed his tune, folks. Ukraine is desperate and losing.

    Appalled (2a8ee9)

  81. Tucker’s guest is for sure a piece of work.

    nk (ac6f7a)

  82. Russian-installed official says Ukrainian soldiers outnumbered Russians
    ………
    Speaking to the state-owned Rossiya-24 television channel, Vitaly Ganchev said that Ukrainian forces had captured previously Russian-held settlements in the region’s north, breaking through to the border with Russia, and that “about 5000” civilians had been evacuated to Russia.

    Ganchev said “the situation is becoming more difficult by the hour”, adding that the border with Russia’s Belgorod region was now closed.
    ………
    Russia’s Defence Ministry on Sunday published a map, showing that Russian forces had almost entirely abandoned the Kharkiv region.

    In southern Ukraine’s Russian-controlled Kherson region, where a slower-moving offensive has seen Kyiv’s forces make modest gains in recent weeks, a Russian-installed official said there was no reason for concern.

    “In Kherson there is no panic,” said Kirill Stremousov in a video posted on Telegram, acknowledging that news from Kharkiv region had disturbed some pro-Russian locals.
    ……….

    Sad!

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  83. The Russian Army Is Losing A Battalion Every Day As Ukrainian Counterattacks Accelerate

    The Russian army is losing at least a battalion’s worth of vehicles and men a day as twin Ukrainian counteroffensives roll back Russian territorial gains in eastern and southern Ukraine. That’s hundreds of casualties and scores of vehicle write-offs every day.
    ………
    In just under two weeks of brutal fighting, the Ukrainians have destroyed, badly damaged or captured 1,200 Russian tanks, fighting vehicles, trucks, helicopters, warplanes and drones, according to the Ukrainian general staff. Independent analysts scouring social media for photos and videos have confirmed nearly 400 of the Russian losses.
    ………
    Worse still, captures account for half the Russian vehicle losses. The Ukrainian army in just the last week and a half has seized enough Russian tanks, fighting vehicles and artillery to equip an entire brigade. In other words, the Ukrainian army actually has more vehicles now than it did before launching its counteroffensives.

    The Ukrainians meanwhile have taken so many Russian prisoners of war—potentially thousands—that they’re struggling to accommodate them. “We have nowhere to keep all the POWs,” Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, said Friday.
    ……..

    SAD!

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  84. The Ukrainians announced an attack in Kherson at the end of August, but only sent a token force to feint. Their real assault was Kharkiv and the Russians had moved everyone south. Now they control the entire Kharkiv region, up to the Russian border.

    Now, the question is, if they are fired on from Belgorod, do they return fire? To they try to take Russian territory, to force a settlement and/or Putin’s demise? Do they dare?

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  85. “We have nowhere to keep all the POWs”

    I’d say keep them at that nuclear plant.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  86. I think the model for this is the First World War, down to the German collapse in 1918. The Allies didn’t need to invade Germany to get an ceasefire. The Kaiser abdicated but I don;t expect Putin will unless he becomes afraid of a revolution in Russia.

    Where will he go? Most likely. Qatar, not China, or, if he hasn’t got time, Turkey.

    But Erdogan will be under heavy pressure too turn him over to the Hague – but that will take some time.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  87. #85

    If the Russians try to build force there, the Ukranians will know about it in plenty of time to strike that force with their weaponry. If the Russians keep shelling from there, the Ukranians can fire back and are more likely to strike the weaponry.

    Invading Russia seems a bad use of their forces, when there are still a lot of other places to go.

    Appalled (465b3f)

  88. https://nypost.com/2022/09/10/russians-killed-2-abused-others-at-ukraine-power-plant-report

    Two Ukrainians who worked at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant were killed (beaten to death) and 10 are missing and unaccounted for. Up to 200 others have been arrested but are known, or thought, to be alive. I don’t know how large the staff it. They didn’t allow a shift change for a long time.

    The Russians regularly arrest and torture people in the occupied areas that they suspect might be plotting to kill them or just resisting their rules too much and too openly. One thing they do is inspect cell phones for pro-Ukrainian government content.

    The plant is now no longer making or receiving electricity from the grid, although it has maybe one plant operating and has a diesel (?) generator with limited supply – enough diesel fuel for 10 days. It can’t safely be resupplied because of all the firing, and if it could it could maybe more simply be reconnected to the grid.

    It needs to have a little electricity to prevent an nuclear accident. because this is not the new more modern type that simply shuts down when all power is cut off.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  89. Now, the question is, if they are fired on from Belgorod, do they return fire?

    Ukraine may have already done so:

    Here

    Here

    Here

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  90. Tucker Carlson’s top Russia-Ukraine war expert Douglas MacGregor, claims to know of “people in Washington” talking about fighting and winning a limited nuclear war. (and seems to try to connect it to the idea that Ukraine is losing and that Washington would start it)

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  91. 64. Kevin M (eeb9e9) — 9/11/2022 @ 6:35 pm

    Best bet for Putin (assuming he loses badly in Ukraine): a deal with Navalny like the one that Yeltsin made with him, allowing him to retire to his dacha…

    Something like that is probably Putin’s fallback plan, but he’s damaged the ability of Navalny, or others who might treat him mercifully, to take over.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  92. Where will (Putin) go?

    I don’t think he will make it out of Moscow alive. He will fall from his hospital window.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  93. Tucker Carlson’s top Russia-Ukraine war expert Douglas MacGregor, claims to know of “people in Washington” talking about fighting and winning a limited nuclear war.

    As do the Russians. Nothing new. The problem for any “plan” the SHTF after the first weapon explodes. If this happens it will be the Russians firing the first (and hopefully only) shot. There are lots of alternative actions NATO can take, such as cyberattacks on the Russian economy.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  94. Four minutes ago:

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/12/world/ukraine-russia-war

    Live Updates: Russian Retreat Prompts Rare Public Debate

    Ukraine claimed more ground in both the northeast and south, but questions remained about how far its forces could go without being overstretched.

    Pinned:

    As Russia suffered its most humiliating defeat since the initial stage of the war in Ukraine, cracks emerged in the official narrative as lawmakers and pundits on state television cast doubt on Moscow’s prospects.

    While some urged the Kremlin to start peace negotiations, others demanded that its forces double down. The divergence of views, even on tightly controlled state television networks, highlighted how Moscow’s narrative has quickly shifted from a conviction that it was only a matter of time before Russia subjugated Ukraine to a sense of alarm over the rapid progress of Kyiv’s forces. And it was a contrast from the muted response after Russia’s drive to take Kyiv failed in the spring.

    Neither side probably represents their real views. Not doubling down and not negotiations.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  95. In 1918, the Kaiser abdicated before the Armistice.

    A partial timeline:

    Sept 26 The Meuse-Argonne offensive begins. This will be the last Franco-American campaign of the war. It is during this battle that Corporal (later Sergeant) Alvin York makes his famous capture of 132 German prisoners.

    4 Oct Germany asks the Allies for an armistice.

    mid Oct The Allies have now taken control of almost all of German-occupied France and part of Belgium.

    21 Oct Germany ceases its policy of unrestricted submarine warfare.

    30 Oct After refusing orders to put to sea in a bid to launch a final suicide attack on the British Royal Navy, sailors of the German Navy mutiny at the port of Kiel.

    After being forced back by Allied troops, Turkey requests an armistice.

    3 Nov Following the fall of Trieste, Austro-Hungary concludes an armistice with the Allies.

    7 Nov Germany begins negotiations for an armistice with the Allies in Ferdinand Foch’s railway carriage headquarters at Compiegne.

    9 Nov The German Kaiser Wilhelm II abdicates.

    11 Nov At the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, in the French town of Redonthes, Germany signs an armistice with the Allies – the official date of the end of World War One.

    Sammy Finkelman (1d215a)

  96. Surrender Fever Sweeps Through Putin’s Troops After Russian Collapse in North

    Picture this: You’re a Russian soldier, stuck in Kherson, waiting for a Ukrainian assault. Your supply route across the Dnipro River has been cut off by rocket attacks. Your ammunition dumps keep getting blown up. And you’ve watched thousands of your colleagues flee the battleground after a stunning Ukrainian offensive in the northeast of the country.

    You could stay and fight—but why risk your life for a war that’s not even officially a war? …….

    A Ukrainian Armed Forces spokeswoman, Natalia Humeniuk, reported Monday that a number of “separate” Russian units around the southern city of Kherson had begun suing for peace and were “trying to negotiate with the Ukrainians on surrender and transfer under the auspices of international law.”

    With morale seemingly at rock-bottom in Vladimir Putin’s exhausted, hollowed-out army, her claim was entirely credible. …….

    The Kharkiv offensive, which has seen Ukrainian forces recapture thousands of square kilometers of territory in just a few days, has been a stunning success. Ukrainian forces are said to have reclaimed a further 20 settlements on Monday as Russian forces desert ever greater swaths of occupied land and flee back across the border. Soon Ukraine, whose forces have already reached the Russian border at some points, will be threatening areas held by Russia since Putin’s first invasion of the Donbas in 2014.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  97. Russian Media Watch:

    Team Putin Admits Their Worst Case Scenario Is Coming True

    In the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s top propagandists predicted a swift victory and derided the Ukrainian military as an unwilling bunch of incompetents. ……
    ……..
    Evgeny Buzhinsky, a retired Lieutenant-General of the Russian Armed Forces, claimed (during Wednesday’s broadcast of the state TV show 60 Minutes) that the Ukrainian military is overflowing with American participants: “There are not only advisers, but specialists. I think that there are thousands of American advisers and specialists on the ground in Ukraine, they’re probably present in every unit.”
    ………
    ……… Speaking to State Duma deputy Andrey Gurulyov, who is a former deputy commander of Russia’s southern military district, (Vladimir) Solovyov (on The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov) attempted to downplay his initial reaction to Russia’s recent losses. “Comrade Lieutenant General, you always speak so beautifully and convincingly. Calm people down, because there are all sorts of rumors. I can only imagine what would happen if Telegram existed in 1942-1943,” he said. Gurulyov grimly replied: “Today, I believe there is a difficult situation on one of our fronts. Yes, Ukrainians concentrated their assault troops there and started to advance.”
    ………
    Solovyov warned that no matter what, there would be no peace deal with Ukraine: …….

    Appearing on Solovyov’s show, military expert Mikhail Onufrienko threw aside the term “special military operation” and complained: “This is a difficult war, it’s a big war, the world hasn’t seen wars of this magnitude since WWII, at least after Vietnam… The panic is being stoked not by the Ukrainian side, not by the Kyiv regime or Western sources, but by our own patriotic [social media] channels… Nonetheless, objectively speaking, this is the most successful advance of the junta since February 24… We clearly don’t have enough troops to contain them… but they couldn’t take Balakliya.”

    Pro-Kremlin propagandists have lost that bit of joy as well, given that as of Thursday, Ukraine has retaken Balakliya—a strategically important city. …….
    ……..
    Host Olga Skabeeva (of 60 Minutes) tried to comfort the audiences by claiming that everything is going according to the plan:……. Skabeeva’s pep talk notwithstanding, the long faces in the studio spoke louder than words.
    ##########

    Sad!

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  98. Russian Media Watch II:

    Incredible moment Russian politician admits ‘it’s impossible’ to defeat Ukraine on live TV
    ……..
    “We have to understand it’s absolutely impossible to beat Ukraine using those resources and colonial war methods with which Russia is trying to wage war,” said (former state Duma deputy Boris) Nadezhdin.

    “Using contract soldiers, mercenaries, no mobilisation.

    “A strong army is opposing the Russian Army, fully supported by the most powerful countries in the economic and technological sense, including European countries.

    “I’m suggesting peace talks about stopping the war and moving on to deal with political issues.”

    Nadezhdin also suggested that Putin had been misled by his advisers, who he claimed had falsely told Putin the Ukrainians would welcome him.
    ……..

    Don’t stand near any windows.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  99. Russian Media Watch III:

    Russia state-media host calls for generals to be executed for allowing retreat from huge swathes of Ukraine
    ………
    On Monday Russian state-media host Volodymyr Solovyov savaged the Kremlin’s military leaders.

    “I do not justify anyone, especially do not argue with the fact that many bosses in uniform (I can not call them commanders) deserve to be dismissed in disgrace, and some of them should be shot, and I can even name a few names to decision makers,” he wrote on his Telegram channel.
    ……..
    The military blogger Yuri Podolyaka told Russia’s “Time Will Tell” show that Russian troops had “given [Ukraine] quite significant territories.”

    The Kremlin’s official spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters on Monday that Russia’s “military operation continues” and “it will continue until the goals that were originally set are achieved,” according to The Guardian.
    #########

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  100. One thing that might concern Mr. Putin is the degree to which Chechnyan soldiers are getting practical experience in the Ukraine. Who knows what that might lead to.

    John B Boddie (bee833)

  101. One thing that might concern Mr. Putin is the degree to which Chechnyan soldiers are getting practical experience in the Ukraine. Who knows what that might lead to.

    John B Boddie (bee833) — 9/12/2022 @ 4:57 pm

    Good point.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  102. Interesting how the Kadyrovites are the bogeymen card Russia plays on deserters. Ukriane plays it too, claiming 1300 Kadyrovites were sent to hunt down and shoot deserters from the Oskil river region…”or you can always surrender to us!”

    steveg (4c1425)

  103. What if Putin Uses a Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine?
    ……..
    Mr. Putin’s choices look bleak. As he struggles to stabilize the military situation while fending off critics at home, he must choose between accepting a humiliating defeat in Ukraine and doubling down in pursuit of a military victory that, as more Western weapons reach Ukraine’s energized defenders, looks very difficult to achieve.

    …….As Mr. Putin contemplates his options, we may be approaching a moment of maximum danger.

    …….[H]aving chosen to start the war, he can’t afford to lose it. Radical Russian nationalists are already blaming him for the military failures in Ukraine. The Kremlin is no place for the weak, and the hard men who run Russia could turn on a politically wounded Mr. Putin in a heartbeat. Regardless of public sentiment across Russia, the people closest to Mr. Putin likely still want him to win the war.
    ……..
    ……..Allowing Mr. Putin to use nuclear blackmail to assert his control over Ukraine would be such a craven act that the moral and political foundations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would be shaken to the core—and nuclear-armed aggressors elsewhere would take note. Yet the obvious countermove, placing Ukraine under an American nuclear umbrella, risks the greatest nuclear crisis since John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev squared off over Cuba in October 1962.
    ………
    Difficult as it may be, President Biden should not blink. The use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would imperil the security of our NATO allies and set an example of nuclear-backed aggression that would profoundly destabilize the international system. With the support of congressional leaders in both parties, Mr. Biden needs to tell Russia that a nuclear attack on Ukraine would be an act of war against the U.S. If Vladimir Putin chooses the path of Nikita Khrushchev, Joe Biden needs to stand like JFK.
    ##########

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  104. What if Putin Uses a Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine?

    OFGS. Fantasy. And what if Auric Goldfinger uses a nuclear device at Fort Knox?

    Well, if you explode it in Fort Knox, the… the entire gold supply of the United States would be radioactive for… fifty-seven years. -James Bond, 007 [Sean Connery] ‘Goldfinger’ 1964

    DCSCA (df7022)

  105. Interesting how the Kadyrovites are the bogeymen card Russia plays on deserters.

    Sigh. It used to be the NKVD (which became the MVD, which became the KGB, which became the FSB) that did that. Secret police are just not what they used to be.

    And this is no longer a joke, either:

    A man is waiting in a bread line in Moscow. He’s been waiting for hours, but just as he reaches the front of the line, the woman inside says, “Sorry, out for today,” and slams the door shut.

    He’s apoplectic. He starts shouting: “So this is communism? I fought in the war against fascism? I’ve worked for the state my whole life. And now I can’t even get a loaf of bread?”

    Two men in black leader trench coats sidle up to him and give him the stinkeye. One says: “A year ago, you would have been shot for that.”

    The man goes home very despondent. He says to his wife: “Things are getting very bad out there.”

    “What? Were they out of bread again?” she asks.

    “Not only that”, he says, “now they’re out of bullets, too.”

    nk (c41af9)

  106. At least there’s no shortage of third story windows.

    lurker (cd7cd4)

  107. Yeah, knowing what we know now, Putin probably did not consider Trump giving him a free penthouse in the proposed Moscow Trump Tower much of an inducement.

    nk (f80665)

  108. Mr. Sumlenny provides an example of a slice of what Ukrainians are fighting against. Though not on a battlefield, these imported Russian “educators” are footsoldiers for Putin’s cultural genocide of Ukraine.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  109. Mr. Biden needs to tell Russia that a nuclear attack on Ukraine would be an act of war against the U.S. If Vladimir Putin chooses the path of Nikita Khrushchev, Joe Biden needs to stand like JFK.

    We don’t ahve to do that. We simply have to say the following:

    “Countries that trade with Russia may not trade with us. Countries that trade with countries that trade with Russia may not trade with us.” Let the Chinese pick.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  110. “Countries that trade with Russia may not trade with us. Countries that trade with countries that trade with Russia may not trade with us.”

    ROFLMAOPIP:

    https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain

    DCSCA (f2a18c)

  111. Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia. Our old commenter narciso liked to say “to them 1984 is a how-to manual”. To Putin it may very well be. He is already well on his way with Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and oil. And that’s still the weak spot in our alliance.

    nk (f80665)

  112. Vladimir Putin ally ‘falling overboard’ is latest death in strange circumstances

    Another high-ranking crony of Vladimir Putin has died in mysterious circumstances after “falling overboard” from a boat.

    Ivan Pechorin, hand-picked by leader Vladimir Putin to head up the development of natural resources in Russia ’s Arctic territories, apparently drowned while sailing his private yacht off the country’s Pacific coast.

    The 39-year-old is the latest senior official linked to Russia’s energy sector and the Kremlin to die in suspicious circumstances.
    …….
    Pechorin also had responsibility for the air industry across the vast east of Russia, a sector under strain from Western economic curbs.

    The high-flyer was managing director of Putin’s Far East and Arctic Development Corporation.

    he corporation issued a statement about his “tragic death” while giving few details.

    “Ivan’s death is an irreparable loss for friends and colleagues, a great loss for the corporation. We offer our sincere condolences to the family and friends,” it said.
    ………
    In February the corporation’s CEO Igor Nosov, 43, died suddenly from a “stroke”.
    ………

    Sad!

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

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