Patterico's Pontifications

9/8/2022

On The Need To Tighten Sanctions on Russia

Filed under: General — Dana @ 10:35 am



[guest post by Dana]

As Ukraine makes a surprise move, which found Russia caught off guard, an op-ed in the Washington Post explains how current sanctions against Russia, which are having a substantial impact, still need to be tightened up as Russia must be met with nothing less than “total isolation”:

The United States and other democracies around the world rightly responded to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine by imposing new sanctions on Russia’s financial system, oil and gas exports, and certain individuals. These sanctions are more comprehensive than any other effort undertaken by the free world against a dictatorship the size of Russia.

They have certainly weakened the Russian economy. But only the most optimistic believed that sanctions would persuade Putin to change his mind and withdraw his army from Ukraine. Instead, the purpose of these sanctions should be to limit Russia’s capacity to wage this war against Ukraine — to compel, not persuade, Putin to end his invasion. To date, there have been some successes, but the experience of the past six months also shows that there is much more to be done. We have several suggestions for measures that we think are worth taking.

Targeted export controls on sensitive technology have proved especially effective by limiting Russia’s ability to replenish precision weaponry. Over time, this disruption of sophisticated technology components, including first and foremost chips that Russia cannot make, will weaken Moscow’s military capabilities.

Now the democratic world must impose additional import restrictions on technologies such as aircraft parts, sonar systems, antennas, spectrophotometers, test equipment, GPS systems, vacuum pumps and oil-field equipment. Russia should be completely unable to obtain any high-tech imports, as ultimately most technology is dual-use. Any technology that helps the Russian economy also helps Putin kill more Ukrainians.

Over the long run, the exodus of tens of thousands of Russian high-tech workers triggered by Putin’s war also will further diminish Russia’s military industrial base. Moving forward, the West should do more to facilitate a massive Russian brain drain. Democratic countries should make it easier to accept Russian immigrants with technological expertise through a variety of residency and economic incentives. Europe and the United States must also make it easier for political and media opponents to Putin’s regime to immigrate, to help further divide Putin from the Russian people.

The op-ed continues to list and explain what other steps must be taken in order to limit Russia’s ability to continue their fight against Ukraine. The question becomes one of how far is the West willing to go:

Finally, democracies must signal their intention to maintain sanctions for as long as it takes to achieve three outcomes: Ukraine must regain all of its territory, including Crimea; Russia must pay war reparations to Ukraine in full; and Russian war criminals must be brought to justice. Leaders of the free world must avoid the temptation to offer partial sanctions relief for incremental changes in Russia’s war efforts, and they should never do anything regarding sanctions relief without endorsement from Ukraine’s government.

Expanding and sustaining sanctions will be costly to the United States, Canada and Europe. But this is the price we must pay for decades of failure to act against Putin’s authoritarian and imperial ways. Fortunately, nations of the free world pay this cost solely with money; Ukrainians are paying with blood.

As of this morning, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made an unannounced visit to Ukraine to announce yet another additional aid package to Ukraine.

With that, I want to turn your attention to a speech that Liz Truss, now the new British prime minister, gave back in April 2022 about the dangers of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. In her speech, she stressed that there could be no complacency because the fate of Ukraine hung in the balance. Clearly, it still does. Her speech begins at the 17:00 mark:

–Dana

23 Responses to “On The Need To Tighten Sanctions on Russia”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (1225fc)

  2. R.I.P. QUEEN ELIZABETH II

    The Queen is dead. Long live the King.

    DCSCA (9e2430)

  3. ‘I declare before you all that my whole life whether it be long or short shall be devoted to your service.’

    On her twenty-first birthday, in a speech broadcast on the radio from Cape Town, The Queen (then Princess Elizabeth) dedicated her life to the service of the Commonwealth.

    Well done, Your Majesty.

    DCSCA (9e2430)

  4. Sigh. At least you managed to get a “Hello” in, Dana.

    nk (b6468c)

  5. Especially as there is a post up about the Queen’s passing, nk. Just not fast enough, I guess.

    Dana (1225fc)

  6. “Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” – Ferris Bueller [Matthew Broderick] ‘Ferris Bueller’s Day Off’ 1986

    DCSCA (9e2430)

  7. There are lots more Russians who can be sanctioned, so let’s make Putin pay. And pay. And pay.
    I wouldn’t be as harsh as Kasparov about lifting sanctions, because maybe some can be judiciously lifted after Russian is all the way out of Ukraine, including their Sevastopol naval base.

    Paul Montagu (685e38)

  8. Quelle surprise. The Royalist hijacked the thread one minute after Dana’s post.

    norcal (da5491)

  9. And it is a very good post, too.

    One of the few occasions I agreed with Trump was when he called the initial response of the West “two cents’ worth of sanctions”.

    There are couple of weak sisters in NATO and the EU (How are you, today, Mr. Orban?) but I hope the others stay tough and turn Russia into just a bigger North Korea.

    nk (d227e3)

  10. There are couple of weak sisters in NATO and the EU (How are you, today, Mr. Orban?) but I hope the others stay tough and turn Russia into just a bigger North Korea.

    They’re called ‘allies.’

    Attaboy, Joey!

    DCSCA (95d11b)

  11. So far I think our response to Russia’s aggression has been pretty good. An increase of sanctions on weapons related parts wouldn’t be a bad move though.

    Nic (896fdf)

  12. Apparently, the sanctions are beginning to bite.

    Some Russian businessman sanctioned by the West have offered Ukraine money exchange for the sanctions being lifted, the Financial Times reported.

    The billionaire oligarch Mikhail Fridman and several other Russian businessmen have reached out to Ukraine to make the offer, the FT reported, citing people involved in the process. It is not clear when the offers were made.

    (Link omitted.)

    Those “businessmen” must be getting even more nervous — now that this story has been published. The story won’t make “”Czar” Putin happy.

    Jim Miller (85fd03)

  13. Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage
    ………
    The document, the result of months of work by officials and experts trying to assess the true impact of Russia’s economic isolation due to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, paints a far more dire picture than officials usually do in their upbeat public pronouncements. Bloomberg viewed a copy of the report, drafted for a closed-door meeting of top officials on Aug. 30. People familiar with the deliberations confirmed its authenticity.

    Two of the three scenarios in the report show the contraction accelerating next year, with the economy returning to the prewar level only at the end of the decade or later. The “inertial” one sees the economy bottoming out next year 8.3% below the 2021 level, while the “stress” scenario puts the low in 2024 at 11.9% under last year’s level.
    ……..
    Over the next year or two, the report warns of “reduced production volumes in a range of export-oriented sectors,” from oil and gas to metals, chemicals and wood products. While some rebound is possible later, “these sectors will cease to be the drivers of the economy.”

    A full cutoff of gas to Europe, Russia’s main export market, could cost as much as 400 billion rubles ($6.6 billion) a year in lost tax revenues, according to the report. It won’t be possible to fully compensate the lost sales with new export markets even in the medium term.
    ………
    On a sectoral basis, the report details the breadth of the hit from sanctions:

    Agriculture: Fully 99% of poultry production and 30% of Holstein dairy cattle output depends on imports. Seeds for staples like sugar beets and potatoes are also mostly brought in from outside the country, as are fish feeds and aminoacids.

    Aviation: 95% of passenger volume is carried on foreign-made planes and the lack of access to imported spare parts could lead the fleet to shrink as they go out of service

    Machine-building: only 30% of machine tools are Russian-made and local industry doesn’t have the capacity to cover rising demand

    Pharmaceuticals: About 80% of domestic production relies on imported raw materials

    Transport: EU restrictions have tripled costs for road shipments

    Communications and IT: Restrictions on SIM cards could leave Russia short of them by 2025, while its telecommunications sector may fall five years behind world leaders in 2022.

    ………

    SAD!

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  14. Some Russian businessman sanctioned by the West have offered Ukraine money exchange for the sanctions being lifted, the Financial Times reported.

    They need to make Ukraine an offer they can’t refuse.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  15. The chips are down: Putin scrambles for high-tech parts as his arsenal goes up in smoke

    It’s the microchips that look set to get Vladimir Putin in the end. Six months into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is being throttled by a severe technology deficit inflicted by sanctions.
    ………
    ………Ukraine is sending out international warnings that the Kremlin has drawn up shopping lists of semiconductors, transformers, connectors, casings, transistors, insulators and other components, most made by companies in the U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, the U.K., Taiwan and Japan, among others, which it needs to fuel its war effort.
    ……..
    POLITICO has seen one of the Russian lists, which is divided into three priority categories, from the most critical components to the least. It even includes the price per item that Moscow expects to pay, down to the last kopeck. While POLITICO could not independently verify the provenance of the list, two experts in military supply chains confirmed it was in line with other research findings about Russia’s military equipment and needs.
    ………
    Of the 25 items Russia is seeking most desperately, almost all are microchips manufactured by U.S. firms Marvell, Intel, Holt, ISSI, Microchip, Micron, Broadcom and Texas Instruments. Rounding out the list are chips by Japanese firm Renesas, which acquired the U.S.-based IDT; Germany’s Infineon, which acquired U.S.-based Cypress; microcircuits by American firm Vicor; and connectors by U.S. firm AirBorn. Some of the items can be easily found in online electronics retailers, while others have been out of stock for months as a result of the global microchip shortage.
    ………
    When it comes to the medium priority list, companies including Germany’s Harting and the Netherlands’ Nexperia (which was acquired by Chinese tech firm Wingtech in 2019) feature heavily. The Russians are hunting for a range of Harting’s casings and connectors, the list showed,……..as well as Nexperia/NXP’s ……. inverters and ………octal buffer/line drivers.
    ……..
    Russia is so desperate for the most sophisticated semiconductors for its weapons program, it has resorted to stripping microchips from dishwashers and fridges to use in its military gear, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said in May, attributing the intel to Ukrainian officials.
    ……..
    An investigation by Reuters with (the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank) in August showed components of U.S. and other Western technology firms were still rife in Russian military equipment found on the battlefield.
    ………

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  16. Some Russian businessman sanctioned by the West have offered Ukraine money exchange for the sanctions being lifted, the Financial Times reported.

    They need to make Ukraine an offer they can’t refuse.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 9/8/2022 @ 5:55 pm

    You’re not kidding. That is exactly how they operate: “We can make you rich, or we can make you dead.” It doesn’t work with everybody, though. It didn’t with Zelensky.

    nk (d227e3)


  17. Especially as there is a post up about the Queen’s passing, nk. Just not fast enough, I guess.

    That’s OK, he’ll repeat it over there, too. He gets paid by the word.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  18. The only way to impose strict hi-tech embargoes on the Russians is to impose them on China. And to have a long heart-to-heart with India. It’s how we broke the Soviet Union and Putin’s Russia is no Soviet Union.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  19. Some Russian businessman sanctioned by the West have offered Ukraine money exchange for the sanctions being lifted, the Financial Times reported.

    They need to make Ukraine an offer they can’t refuse.

    Corruption owes no loyalties.

    “If you can’t beat’em: join ’em”

    DCSCA (2d80b0)

  20. Mark Hertling, on the importance of retaking Balakliya. The Ukrainian freedom fighters are also taking back ground around Kharkiv and Kherson.

    Paul Montagu (753b42)

  21. Ukraine must regain all of its territory, including Crimea; Russia must pay war reparations to Ukraine in full; and Russian war criminals must be brought to justice.

    ok, sounds great, but who’s going to make them?

    oh right, sanctions LOL

    JF (b4971a)

  22. SAD!
    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 9/8/2022 @ 5:53 pm

    Optimistic.

    Kevin M (eeb9e9)

  23. Unquestionably permanent sanctions:

    ……..
    Since Russian forces invaded in late February and began seizing Ukrainian cities and towns, close to 20 Kremlin-backed officials or their local Ukrainian collaborators have been killed or injured in a wave of assassinations and attempted killings.

    They have been gunned down, blown up, hanged and poisoned — an array of methods that reflects the determination of the Ukrainian hit squads and saboteurs often operating deep inside enemy-controlled territory. …….
    ……..
    Artem Bardin, the military commandant in Berdyansk, a port city on the Sea of Azov that Russia seized early in the war, was critically injured when a car exploded near the city administration building …….Bardin’s legs were blown off and he suffered extensive blood loss, but he was alive, Vladimir Rogov, a Ukrainian who works as a pro-Russian official, told Tass. “Doctors continue to fight for his life,” Rogov said.
    ………
    As Ukrainian soldiers press forward in the country’s south and east to try to reclaim occupied territories, Ukrainian authorities say the shadowy behind-the-lines operations are undermining, if not outright thwarting, Moscow’s plans to take political control, and especially to stage the sham referendums the Kremlin hoped to use to justify annexation.
    ………
    During August alone, there were nine such attacks.

    In Berdyansk, the deputy head of the traffic police, Aleksandr Kolesnikov, died after a bomb blast, which local authorities blamed on the “Kyiv regime.”

    In Kherson, Volodymyr Saldo, the head of the occupation administration, was hospitalized after being poisoned, reportedly by a personal chef……..
    ………
    “In Kherson, it is said that Russian officers … have been avoiding evening walks recently,” (Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky) wrote. “As soon as city falls asleep, the partisans wake up. … We wish all the collaborators a ‘good night.’ ”
    ########

    Rip Murdock (9f3047)

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