[guest post by Dana]
We have a strong sense of what Russia could do next. We believe that Moscow may be setting the stage to use a chemical weapon and then falsely blame Ukraine to justify escalating its attacks on the Ukrainian people. Manufacturing events, and creating false narratives of genocide to justify greater use of military force is a tactic that Russia has used before…
U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke on Wednesday with Nikolay Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, warning him of the consequences “of any possible Russian decision to use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine”.
Sullivan declined to say what those consequences might be.
We have yet to see whether Washington will decide that the use of chemical (or biological) weapons is our red line and if so, whether that would actually mean something.
As it stands, the United Nations is reporting that 2.5 million refugees have fled Ukraine since the invasion began.