Patterico's Pontifications

7/14/2021

Democratic Strategist: Stop Letting the “Noisy” Left Wing Progressives Of The Party Define Us

Filed under: General — Dana @ 3:48 pm



[guest post by Dana]

After the New York Democratic mayoral primary win of Eric Adams, how can any Democrat argue with this? I’m just not sure how relevant James Carville is these days, and whether he carries any serious weight within the Democratic Party. But after making these comments, it’s pretty clear that his name is mud with the “fringe element” of his party:

Carville said the victory of Eric Adams in the New York Democratic mayoral primary shows that running against the “defund the police” movement is a political winner, and that voters want politicians to be more interested in their lives than “someone else’s pronouns”: The most important constituents in our party are Blacks and suburban women. They’re not into this. Alright? And again, we’re seeing it time and time again. We’re letting a noisy wing of our party define the rest of us. And my point is we can’t do that. I think these people are kind of nice people. I think they’re very naive and they’re all into language and identity, and that’s all right. They’re not storming the Capitol, but they’re not winning elections. And I think people sort of see this for what it is, and people way more interested in their lives and how to improve them than they are in somebody else’s pronouns or something.

Of course, California doesn’t seem to fit into Carville’s assessment. The “noisy wing” of his party is the supermajority in the Golden State, and that doesn’t seem likely to change any time soon. This especially as there is a good chance that Gov. Newsom will survive the recall election on Sept. 14.

–Dana

112 Responses to “Democratic Strategist: Stop Letting the “Noisy” Left Wing Progressives Of The Party Define Us”

  1. Hello.

    Dana (fd537d)

  2. I hope the noisy left and the Trumpy right cancel each other out, allowing for sane, moderate government.

    norcal (25df9b)

  3. There were two important black candidates in the New York City mayoral race. One, Eric Adams, got most of the black votes in the outer boroughs. The other, Maya Wiley, was a “progressive” and she got votes mainly from white progressives. There was also Kathryn Garcia, who got a lot more votes in Manhattan and was more or less a moderate, and Andrew Yang. These four got about 80% of the first round votes. Kathryn Garcia was third until the 4th ranked candidate, Andrew Yang, was eliminated.

    Eric Adams’s margin over Kathryn Garcia is shrinking (who is not actually Hispanic – she was formerly married to a Puerto Rican, although she comes from a quote mixed race family – two city officials, or at least one of them was – who adopted a number of children and maybe had children also)

    He’s down to a margin of between 7.000 and 8,000 votes – but they counted the affidavit ballots and there are only 55 possible more votes to count (absentee ballots with issues that can be cured till the close of business today I think)

    The situation is not as good as James Carville says. It took some time to become familiar with the candidates. A super progressive won the race for Comptroller over a moderate progressive (who tried to only pretend to defund the police) by a small margin of about 1% the other way after all the rankings were done. There were some better candidates.

    The City Council is more progressive than before although the Democratic Socialists of America (AOC’s people) did not do too well, (only 2 out 6 candidates they ran won) But the Working Families (progressive plus municipal unions) did quite well.

    The bad Borough President of Queens still maybe has a small chance of losing and the most progressive candidate won for Brooklyn BP.

    Bottom line: The more well known the candidates are, the worst the “progressives” do.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  4. Speaking of preferred pronouns-I just received an email where in the sender’s signature block was the following:

    Pronouns: she/her/hers

    Oh brother.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  5. And I think people sort of see this for what it is, and people way more interested in their lives and how to improve them than they are in somebody else’s pronouns or something.

    I guess that leaves out Bruce Jenner.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  6. Why am I not shocked at this? It is not like those same Democratic strategists do the same thing to Republicans.

    Hoi Polloi (b28058)

  7. Hoi, what do you mean?

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  8. Miami’s Republican Mayor Wants to Bomb Cuba

    Miami’s Republican Mayor Wants to Bomb Cuba. The Republican mayor of Miami, Florida suggested on Tuesday that the United States should consider bombing Cuba in order to assist the growing social unrest that has taken hold on the island nation in recent weeks in order to protect American national security interests. – source, hillreporter.com

    Aahhh, the sweet smell of conservatism…

    “Meet the future.” – Butch Cassidy [Paul Newman] ‘Butch Cassidy and The Sundance Kid’ 1969

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  9. @7 I think what he means is that Democratic strategists and the media (but I repeat myself) will characterize the whole party by the actions of their loud minority extremist wing.

    whembly (ae0eb5)

  10. “OK, Boomer”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  11. I hope the noisy left and the Trumpy right cancel each other out, allowing for sane, moderate government.

    There has never been a better chance for a centrist candidate. Let AOC run against Trump (or RTG) and Jeb! will start looking much much better.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  12. Kevin Drum said much the same thing last week.

    Now: maybe you’re personally delighted by the Democratic Party’s leftward march and maybe you’re not. It doesn’t matter. Despite endless hopeful invocations of “but polls show that people like our positions,” the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary—something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. From an electoral point of view, the story here is consistent: Democrats have stoked the culture wars by getting more extreme on social issues and Republicans have used this to successfully cleave away a segment of both the non-college white vote and, more recently, the non-college nonwhite vote.

    So why is it conventional wisdom to point to conservatives as “culture war mongers”? As I’ve mentioned before, it’s a straightforward consequence of behavioral economics. For most people, losing something is far more painful than the pleasure of gaining something of equivalent value. And since conservatives are “losing” the customs and hierarchies that they’ve long lived with, their reaction is far more intense than the liberal reaction toward winning the changes they desire. This produces more outrageous behavior from conservatives even though liberals are actually the ur-source of polarization.

    Here’s the nickel summary of all this:

    * Since 1994, Democrats have moved left far more than Republicans have moved right.
    * This has produced lots of safe states in liberal places like California and Massachusetts but has steadily pulled Democrats farther and farther away from median states like Iowa and Ohio.
    * Recently, white academic theories of racism—and probably the whole woke movement in general—have turned off many moderate Black and Hispanic voters.¹ Ditto for liberal dismissal of crime and safety issues. Hispanics in particular moved in Trump’s direction despite—or maybe because of—his position on immigration and the wall.
    * Democrats will remain on an electoral knife edge forever unless they can pull themselves back toward the center.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  13. Carville is still firmly stuck in an early 90s political paradigm, when the Democrats were more focused on class issues, their racial and gender platform was directed more towards equality of opportunity rather than equality of outcome, and the neocons hadn’t quite begun the process of surrendering to them in the culture war.

    Factory Working Orphan (2775f0)

  14. The only reason the Democrats have not paid badly for their march to the leftward fringe is

    1) Donald Trump makes anything else look reasonable, and
    2) The press is deeply in the Democrat camp and serves to protect them, mostly by lying or omitting facts that would get the voters upset if they knew them.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  15. The “noisy” left wing did not want Biden/Harris. They, unlike the Trump wing, are not in charge of the party.

    Davethulhu (aa6793)

  16. They, unlike the Trump wing, are not in charge of the party.

    They aren’t? Which of Biden’s actions is sticking it to the lefties?

    They got all they wanted on the environment. They got all they wanted on foreign policy (save maybe for nuking Israel).

    Domestically they have a huge increase in social spending (vastly expanded Obamacare subsidies, free money galore and the California governor has about $100 billion in newly printed money to buy himself an election.

    And then there’s the willful disregard of immigration law, and the attempt to make elections a Democrat operation entirely.

    THEN they want to spend yet another $4 trillion on everything from expanding the failing Medicare system (instead of fixing it), eliminating fossil fuels and a wish list so vast that it could include rural bike lanes and no one would know.

    What is it that they are sulking about? From over here it seems like they have most of the Politburo seats, and Biden is hopping to their music.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  17. Dana – If I may make a suggestion, in the future you may want to just call them “leftists”, and skip the “progressive”.

    In the past, these same people were often called “liberals”, which caused considerable confusion since their ideas are so different from those of the classic liberals (free speech, free trade, limited government, et cetera).

    In my opinion, calling them progressives is also confusing, since so many of their ideas date back to the 19th century, and earlier: bicycles, rail transit, the obsession with race, Bismarkian social insurance schemes, and so forth. The doling out of goodies by ethnic group was routine in most of the old big city machines. The nature worship so common on the left dates back as far as we have records, and undoubtedly much further. I would argue that “reactionary”, though also imperfect, is closer than progressive.

    So that leaves leftists as a term to describe people like AOC and company.

    (Avoiding “liberal” for American leftists also helps when talking about parties in other nations founded as classical liberal parties, such as Australia’s Liberal Party.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  18. Jim Miller,

    The problem is, the definitions are always in a state of flux and it’s hard to keep up with who has most recently co-opted whom.

    Dana (d10e8d)

  19. What policies would the left be trying to push that’s any different than what Biden is pushing?

    I can’t imagine they could be any worse than saying passing voter ID laws is worse than anything since the Civil War.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  20. “Progressive” is a word that got dredged up out of history when “liberal” fell into disuse. It’s not like they could use the more accurate “socialist.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  21. I saw Carville interviewed on CNN the other night. I think he’s an astute political adviser. I disagree with him that the main constituents of the Democratic party are “Blacks and suburban women.” If that were true, Biden wouldn’t have recieved more votes than any presidential candidate in history. There are millions of men who voted for Biden, including me. Except I didn’t really vote for Biden. I voted against Trump.

    It was the first time in forty years that I voted for a Democrat. Ordinarily, when I don’t like the Republican nominee–GHW Bush (for re-election), Dole, McCain–I would vote Libertarian in protest. I did vote for Romney, because I thought he was a better alternative than Obama.

    However, I did not and will not ever vote for Trump, or any Republican who supports him and repeats his lies. That includes Abbot, who I voted for, Cruz, who I voted for and donated to, and Cornyn, who I did not vote for.

    Carville is correct that the Democratic party cannot let the “loud voices” of the party define the party. The same is true for the Republican party. We cannot let the Trump cultists define the party. That would be a recipe for disaster.

    Trump is a malignant narcissist, a wannabe dictator, and a complete failure. Under his leadership, the Republicans lost the White House, the House and the Senate. At what point does losing become enough for you?

    Much more interesting, in terms of the health of the Republican party, is Cheney’s and Kinzinger’s success in fund raising.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/14/cheney-kinzinger-leaders-house-republicans-499589

    Cheney and Kinzinger are trying to bring the Republican party back to its roots. Classical liberalism, as Jim Miller noted above. I am a classical liberal. And I will not vote for anyone who does not support classical liberalism.

    Gawain's Ghost (ef1cde)

  22. Carville forgets 2016 when the left took a walk on his beloved hillary when her supporters and the dnc told bernie sanders and his supporters you lost, your getting nothing! And don’t you dare vote for jill stein or else! Or else what? In 2020 the democrat party kept the green party off the ballot in az, ga. and wi. or trump would be president. After 2016 the hillary supporters and the DNC said to the left look what you have by voting for jill stein instead of are beloved hillary. The left’s answer YES! and we will do it again if you throw more crap at us! The left owes the democratic establishment and their corporate stooges nothing!

    asset (ddf4ac)

  23. Only here would someone bring up the name Jeb.

    mg (8cbc69)

  24. Unofficial RCV results for New York City Democratic mayoral primary (released July 6, 2021)

    Candidate 1st round 2nd round 3rd round[15] 4th round 5th round[15] 6th round 7th round 8th round

    Adams 288,654 (30.8%) 288,854 (30.8%) 289,304 (30.9%) 291,047 (31.2%) 295,030 (31.7%) 316,234 (34.7%) 353,664 (40.5%) 403,333 (50.5%)

    Wiley 199,778 (21.3%) 199,844 (21.3%) 200,167 (21.4%) 204,628 (21.9%) 207,709 (22.3%) 237,621 (26.1%) 253,094 (29.0%) —

    Garcia 183,433 (19.6%) 183,541 (19.6%) 183,637 (19.6%) 185,693 (19.9%) 190,813 (20.5%) 222,389 (24.4%) 265,461 (30.4%) 394,907 (49.5%)

    Yang 114,639 (12.2%) 114,810 (12.3%) 115,011 (12.3%) 117,513 (12.6%) 121,085 (13.0%) 135,096 (14.8%) — —

    Stringer 51,534 (5.5%) 51,606 (5.5%) 51,707 (5.5%) 53,351 (5.7%) 56,465 (6.1%) — — —

    Morales 26,374 (2.8%) 26,413 (2.8%) 26,524 (2.8%) 30,032 (3.2%) 30,803 (3.3%) — — —

    McGuire 25,074 (2.7%) 25,104 (2.7%) 25,250 (2.7%) 26,187 (2.8%) 27,752 (3.0%) — — —

    Donovan 23,074 (2.5%) 23,096 (2.5%) 23,221 (2.5%) 23,945 (2.6%) — — — —

    Foldenauer 7,729 (0.8%) 7,745 (0.8%) 7,806 (0.8%) — — — — —

    Chang 7,023 (0.7%) 7,039 (0.8%) 7,068 (0.8%) — — — — —

    Prince 3,934 (0.4%) 3,977 (0.4%) 4,030 (0.4%) — — — — —

    Taylorr 2,652 (0.3%) 2,673 (0.3%) 2,770 (0.3%) — — — — —

    Wright Jr. 2,234 (0.2%) 2,246 (0.2%) — — — — — —

    Write-ins 1,567 (0.2% — — — — — — —

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  25. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 7/14/2021 @ 11:01 pm

    “Progressive” is a word that got dredged up out of history when “liberal” fell into disuse.

    By Congressman Mo Udall, when running for President in 1976. Liberal did not fall into disuse – it acquired a bad connotation.

    Progressive wasn’t better (the name of Henry Wallace’s party in 1948?) but it was less familiar to people so ot probably polled better. Udall was probably thinking of LaFolette in 1924 or Theodore Roosevelt in 1912. It still wasn’t better.

    Mondale didn’t use the word liberal in 1984.

    But the word progressive wasn’t much used for many years.

    In the last couple of years, “progressive” got used more, often as self-descriptive. By very leftwing people.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  26. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 7/14/2021 @ 6:01 pm

    1) Donald Trump makes anything else look reasonable

    Why do I get the feeling that if your toast doesn’t come out right in the morning it’s Trump’s fault?

    frosty (f27e97)

  27. Because you’re having a hard time recognizing just how horrible Trump was as president or just how much damage he’s been doing since he lost the election? Kevin’s statement has some hyperbole, but Trump’s immense unpopularity is why Biden won.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  28. Kevin, we’re 6 months in and here are the things Biden has walked away from that the left wanted
    15$ minimum wage nationally.
    college loan forgiveness
    Stacking the Supreme Court (so far at least, his committee might actually do something but at this point it seems like he sent the idea there to die)
    Ending the filibuster (again so far, the left is still talking about it but Biden isn’t pushing it)
    Dramatically scaled back ‘infrastructure’ bill, again, so far at least.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  29. Only here would someone bring up the name Jeb.

    If Jeb were nominated, he’d be in his 2nd term now, a majority of Republicans wouldn’t be prostrating to a mentally deranged con man, the Senate would hold its majority, and the GOP would be much less dysfunctional. Yeah, I think Jeb’s name should be brought up.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  30. i want more stuff like this by they way. Center-leftists with stature need to push back against the fringe left.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  31. What policies would the left be trying to push that’s any different than what Biden is pushing?

    I can’t imagine they could be any worse than saying passing voter ID laws is worse than anything since the Civil War.

    NJRob (eb56c3) — 7/14/2021 @ 10:42 pm

    Fully socialized medicine
    Free college with loan forgiveness
    Wildly protectionist trade policies
    Huge cuts to defense spending.
    Tax cap gains as income

    Just off the top of my head.

    Biden is to the left of *you*. (Me too on a lot of issues) but he’s to the right of them. Pretending otherwise is silly.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  32. Only here would someone bring up the name Jeb.

    Only here would a popular two-term Republican governor be thought of as a loser. Until ring-wing media demands experienced, smarter, high-character individuals…the rabble will continue to think none of that matters….sad

    AJ_Liberty (a4ff25)

  33. BTW, Carville is as partisan as they come but he’s a Clintonian Third Way Democrat and part of the DLC claque before it became a dirty word among hardline progressives. He’s rightfully arguing that his party not pander to the Sanders-AOC fringe and be more mainstream.

    Paul Montagu (5de684)

  34. Kevin M, I need to spend some time with Drum’s post. I want to understand how they measured it and what ‘moving left’ means in that data set. Are “gender is a social construct”, “Gay Marriage is OK” and “We should show respect for all faiths by saying happy holiday’s in December”. All treated the same way?

    Not really arguing with anything you’ve said here, but you’ve brought that point up a couple of times and it’s interesting.

    He also made the point that the losing team often has more passion then the winning team. If that’s correct, and I’m not sure, it would explain why culture war stuff, even silly stuff like “Happy Holiday’s” fires up the right more than the left.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  35. @32, I miss the days when we had 2 reasonably qualified candidates to chose from. Out of recent elections what were they

    Romney v Obama was the last one, but I didn’t think Obama was a qualified candidate in his first term, so he arguably started the. Decline of competency vs. popularity.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  36. Time, I agree, especially about Obama. He was the poster child for popularity over competency….and post housing market crash and Iraq-fatique….the door was open. In the end, I think Obama missed some big opportunities to rise above partisanship….and was over-matched politically by Reid and Pelosi. Still, it’s not an excuse for Trump. The fact that so many of the GOP CAN’T move beyond Trump is head-scratching…..it’s less an intellectual argument than an emotional one. You can’t defend every bobble, gaffe, and misdeed for four years and not be invested. This is who much of the GOP are right now….and they have to defend it….

    AJ_Liberty (a4ff25)

  37. I’m less concerned with bobbles and gaffes then I am lies, crimes, and the open assault on our system of government.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  38. Why do I get the feeling that if your toast doesn’t come out right in the morning it’s Trump’s fault?

    I think you need to ask yourself that, not me.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  39. Yeah, I think Jeb’s name should be brought up.

    It was by comparison, not by desire. The GOP has better candidates than Jeb, and worse candidates than Trump. I’d like someone who can bridge the two worlds — someone with ethical behavior, able to think on their feet, and can meld Trump’s better policies with the better legacy ones.

    While I suppose there are some who found Trump’s behavior and trash-talk refreshing, most of his support came from those who saw him as the better policy option. Any successor needs to keep hold of his support, while gathering in those who may have felt the same way but could not get past Trump’s crudities and lack of character.

    I doubt that is Jeb, actually — he doesn’t even meet the needs of #neverTrump. Nor does Kasich. Cruz has destroyed himself, as have a few others.

    The question then becomes: how adamant are the factions that no one who ever consorted with one of the other factions is acceptable? If the answer is “very” then it won’t matter who gets the nod.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  40. Kevin, my line is if they were willing to speak out / stand up against Trumps illegal, corrupt, or anti-democratic actions. If they enabled it they’re not acceptable. If they were silent it’s questionable.

    Look at Pete Meijer as an example of someone I might like to vote for after he gets more experience

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  41. Fully socialized medicine
    Free college with loan forgiveness
    Wildly protectionist trade policies
    Huge cuts to defense spending.
    Tax cap gains as income

    Just off the top of my head.

    It’s not BIDEN that’s blocking those, it’s the 50 GOP votes in the Senate.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  42. Time,

    I understand that, but if the GOP is to be an actual party hard-line divisions and litmus tests will not work. Maybe it will take another loss, or two, for that to sink in.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  43. I don’t see evidence, either from actions or the things he or his surrogates have said, that Biden has been pushing them.

    As a counter factual: if Bernie or Warren had won I expect they’d have put considerable effort into all of those.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  44. There are those who supported Trump’s coup as True Believers, and there are those that found opposition ineffective professional suicide. I can live with Realpolitik.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  45. 42, you raise a good point, but how do I have any faith that someone like Cruze, Paul, or Hawley who have enabled Trump strop the steal lie to actually pu the good of the country first?

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  46. No, he has not been pushing them, and some of them he probably would not (loan forgiveness). Taxing cap gains as income was a Biden proposal, and it is still on the table. I’m not sure even Bernie would be for massive tariffs.

    As for fully socialized medicine, it’s on their agenda but it will come slowly, then all at once. Expanding Medicare to age 60 will utterly break the system, turning a mid-term problem into a short-term one. Followed shortly by “reform.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  47. Kevin, Biden is a center left, but he’s still a lefty. He’s going to go that way. My point was that he’s not going nearly as hard as Warren or Bernie would have. Or as hard as the far left wants.

    Also, Warrens plan was very protectionist.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  48. Basically I’m not saying he’s /good/. I’m saying he’s /less/ bad.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  49. Time,

    I think that Cruz, Hawley and Paul (and a few others) have ruined their chances of any higher office. I would probably vote against any of them in a primary, but in the general election I see no profit in electing a (increasingly far left) Democrat.

    There are people who have feet in both camps, restricted in their support of Trump and having been able to criticize him as well. I think that Liz Cheney was mistaken in what she did, from a practical POV anyway. But maybe someone had to be the “bad guy.” I dunno.

    I keep coming back to Nikki Haley as the leader in the intersectionality derby.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  50. The problem is that the Republicans are not running in opposition to fully socialized medicine, free college with loan forgiveness, wildly protectionist trade policies, huge cuts to defense spending, or tax cap gains as income. They are running on platforms opposing vaccination programs, critical race theory, and non-existent election fraud.

    Darling Nikki can decide whether to stand up to Donald Trump of fall to her knees. And while she may try to appeal to a broader segment of Republican voters, Trump’s fanboys don’t like her at all.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  51. Correction-
    Darling Nikki can’t decide whether to stand up to Donald Trump of fall to her knees.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  52. Haley did an OK job staying out of Trump’s tar pit and I’d be able to vote for her depending on the Dem candidate. A candidate like her would give me a choice in the way say, Pompeo, wouldn’t.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  53. @50 Dem’s have bad policy, Trumpublicans are barking lunatics.

    It’s a horrible set of choices.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  54. @50 Dem’s have bad policy, Trumpublicans are barking lunatics.

    It may be bad policy, but it’s popular with the public.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  55. Trump’s fanboys don’t like her at all.

    Or any other woman. A bunch of incels, if you ask me.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  56. It may be bad policy, but it’s popular with the public.

    Wait until we are back at double-digit inflation again.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  57. As I said – only on this site.

    mg (8cbc69)

  58. if anyone other than trump had been nominated, we’d now be discussing why hillary is in her second term because of racist and crazy republicans

    romney was racist and sexist and crazy before someone more racist and sexist and crazy came along

    so was dubya

    the democrats don’t have to deal with this nonsense, which is why carville can speak like his party has options

    a self-described moderate democrat who governs like a hard leftist is still a moderate because they say so and the press buys it

    JF (e1156d)

  59. Are we really back to the old chestnut “Only Trump could beat Hillary”?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  60. @59 i wanna hear more about that new chestnut jeb

    JF (e1156d)

  61. Kevin, you’ve got to look at the source. JF typically brings a very mainstream pro-Trump POV.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  62. I can’t see any Dems that fit Carville’s bill. Klobuchar maybe, but she doesn’t stand a chance. Buttagieg? Val Demings, Tammy Duckworth? It needs to be somebody real, imo. People can smell fakeness a mile away.

    I didn’t vote for Romney, and I regret it. Jeb would have been fine, but he had the Bush stank on him. Personally I think DeSantis would be fine, though he flirts with Trumpism way more than I would like. But back to the fakeness thing, imo DeSantis comes across as pretty real. Not completely. But more so than someone like, say, Cruz or Rubio.

    JRH (52aed3)

  63. “Darling Nikki can’t decide whether to stand up to Donald Trump or fall to her knees.”

    The key is that she hasn’t soiled herself yet….and 2.5yrs out, what precisely would be the point? She will have a lot of hearts and minds to persuade….as much as many of us would like to see it….alienating big swaths of the base and media during warmups doesn’t seem very shrewd. Not doing a full-Cruz defense of 1/6 and the big steal seems shrewd. By allowing right-wing pop media to be Trumpified something needs to shake loose there to open up a way for Haley to get any alternative-to-Trump message out there. She needs to be in the background getting support on the QT

    AJ_Liberty (ec7f74)

  64. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 7/15/2021 @ 10:17 am

    Are we really back to the old chestnut “Only Trump could beat Hillary”?

    No, we’re at “Trump ruined my toast this morning and my coffee wasn’t up to snuff either”.

    Or with less snark, these other awesome R candidates would have won if it wasn’t for this horrible candidate.

    Or with more snark, Jeb would have won if it weren’t for these darn kids and their talking dog.

    frosty (f27e97)

  65. It’s huge that he sat down with Biden. That sent a message.

    JRH (52aed3)

  66. Darling Nikki can decide whether to stand up to Donald Trump of fall to her knees. And while she may try to appeal to a broader segment of Republican voters, Trump’s fanboys don’t like her at all.

    So you can’t decide ‘where she stands’ this early from the 2024 general… which makes her quite savvy. All that matters is whether Trump ‘likes her’ does or not. She can be his Queen Bee, or anointed by him as the Queen to Be.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  67. Blech on Nikki. That’s my opinion worth perhaps nothing. Can’t stand that windsock.

    JRH (52aed3)

  68. 67. Blech on Cruz, DeSantis, Romney, Jeb, Rubio, [insert any kizzbutt GOP Royalist name here]. That’s my opinion worth perhaps nothing. Can’t stand that windsock.

    FIFY.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  69. JRH, a dark horse might be the old bald tall guy from Florida. Rick Scott stops just short on many Trumpisms and doesnt scare many nons.

    urbanleftbehind (1635bf)

  70. Trump fanboys on the Internet seem to prefer Kristi Noem over Darling Nikki. They hold her removal of the Confederate battle flag against her.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  71. Kevin McCarthy to get his marching orders today before first 1/6 hearing.

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  72. @30

    Yeah, I think Jeb’s name should be brought up.

    It was by comparison, not by desire. The GOP has better candidates than Jeb, and worse candidates than Trump. I’d like someone who can bridge the two worlds — someone with ethical behavior, able to think on their feet, and can meld Trump’s better policies with the better legacy ones.

    While I suppose there are some who found Trump’s behavior and trash-talk refreshing, most of his support came from those who saw him as the better policy option. Any successor needs to keep hold of his support, while gathering in those who may have felt the same way but could not get past Trump’s crudities and lack of character.

    I doubt that is Jeb, actually — he doesn’t even meet the needs of #neverTrump. Nor does Kasich. Cruz has destroyed himself, as have a few others.

    The question then becomes: how adamant are the factions that no one who ever consorted with one of the other factions is acceptable? If the answer is “very” then it won’t matter who gets the nod.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 7/15/2021 @ 9:13 am

    I think the fact that Trump and Biden won elections means any political actor has a chance to win.

    3 year from now is a different epoch in the political world, so the likes of Cruz and Hawley might be able to string together enough support to win their respective primaries.

    Frankly, I’d rather have someone newish… like Haley, DeSantis or even Noem (I’m real partial to former governors).

    whembly (867f2f)

  73. OT- 46 years ago today, July 15, 1975, the last of America’s Apollo spacecraft was launched from Cape Canaveral, FL as the U.S. part of the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project, the first international manned spaceflight with the American Apollo docking w/t Soviet Union’s Soyuz spacecraft. The Russian Soyuz crew- Alexi Leonov [the first man to walk in space] and Valeri Kubasov have both passed. Of the three U.S. Apollo crew, Tom Stafford and Vance Brand, both now 90 years old, are still with us; Deke Slayton passed in 1993.

    The final Apollo flight broke little new ‘scientific’ ground but seeded methods and procedures between the two rival spacefaring nations of that era for future cooperative international manned spaceflights including the shuttle/Mir missions in the 1990s — and the operations aboard the ISS today. Apollo’s last flight also began what became known as ‘the gap’ – lasting six years, between the end of the Apollo era through the development and launching of the first space shuttle in 1981.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  74. @59 i wanna hear more about that new chestnut jeb

    Apparently, JF doesn’t recognize mocking sarcasm

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  75. Newsom is not, and never has been, part of the left wing of the state Democratic party. When he was Mayor of San Francisco, he was generally considered a *conservative* in the context of city politics; he was the guy the progressives organized against.

    But he’s very skilled at *pretending* to be part of the left wing by pulling political stunts that make it seem like he’s on the left wing’s side, persuading people with symbols rather than substance.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  76. How far NASA has fallen: Several yaars ago I was in Houston and went on the JSC tour. The docent was so clueless that she didn’t know that there was a complete Saturn V rocket on display, or that anyone would want to see it. That and the “star” fries in the “restaurant.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  77. persuading people with symbols rather than substance.

    Paying everyone’s rent for the last year is a bit more than symbolism. It sends clear message to responsible types, to: “Schmuck!” — which is pretty much the hallmark of the Left, now that I think about it.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  78. *too

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  79. Paying the rent of the people who couldn’t pay rent because their jobs went poof because the state ordered their employers to close seems like it’s a fundamentally just policy, in my mind at least. They were prevented from earning an income by state order, and in many cases the unemployment bump wasn’t enough to cover expenses; it’s only right that the state should cover the aftermath of that.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  80. Not everyone who did not pay rent was unemployed. It’s more like patching a patch than “just policy.”

    In any event, unemployment was paying as much as $1000/week for staying home ($600 flat from Uncle Sugar plus state UI) plus several rounds of stimulus checks. Plus higher subsidies for medical. It’s not like people were being forced to sell their bodies to eat.

    It does a great disservice to personal responsibility and self-reliance to undercut responsible people this way. But then maybe that’s their goal.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  81. It’s worse then that. Paying rent to the unemployed is one thing, the eviction moratorium is another. Friend of mine put all his time and energy into buying crap houses in the city, making them livable, and renting them out. He had 5 when COVID hit he said they generated almost 5K a month in revenue. 3 stopped paying their rent and it’s wiped out all the gains he’d made since the profit from the other 2 won’t cover al his costs. He said financially he’ll be building back from almost square 1.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  82. @76. Actually the saddest time was when I visited KSC in late 1978 between the Apollo and shuttle programs. The place was deserted and contractors were disssembling the Saturn launch towers and using the same steel reassembling the shuttle launch towers on site. Saturn V hardware interstages, the Saturn service swing arms and so on were literally laying in the weeds around the empty, abandoned and unpainted press stands and the original Saturn V test vehicle was on its side, then still exposed to the elements years before the Florida visitor center was built around it to protect it.

    In Texas, in his book, ‘Shuttle, Houston,‘ Paul Dye, one of the longest serving space shuttle flight directors, quilled the anecdote that after long night shifts ‘on console,’ controllers often liked to go party w/a drink or two- but more often than not, the local watering holes had closed and the teams were occasionally discovered outdoors by security ‘partying’ at unauthorized locales on the JSC campus. So the center director contacted security and authorized them to open up the Saturn V Visitor Center at the Rocket Park in Houston so the flight controllers could drink up beneath the last flight certified Saturn V under cover in the wee hours of the night.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  83. Kevin McCarthy Must Stop Stalling on the January 6 Committee
    ……As yet, befuddled minority leader Kevin McCarthy has not even announced whether Republicans will participate, let alone who will fill the committee’s five GOP slots.
    …….
    It is ridiculous for McCarthy to consider sitting this out. Convening a select committee is a completely legitimate exercise of Congress’s power to investigate a forcible attack . . . on Congress. It was all well and good for the minority leader and other Republicans (including Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell) to oppose a 9/11-style commission of unelected, supposedly objective experts; conducting such an investigation is Congress’s job — not a job to be farmed out to a blue-ribbon panel. But it remains a job worth doing: The Capitol riot clearly warrants a congressional probe.
    ……..
    Plainly, Democrats envision the committee as a golden opportunity to advance their racialized political narrative that the “insurrection” was fomented by white supremacists, who pose a terrorist threat to the nation that is even more perilous than that posed by jihadism. …….

    That is politics. It doesn’t make the select-committee investigation illegitimate.

    Nor is the committee a purely partisan exercise just because its creation has put McCarthy in an uncomfortable position. Naturally, he frets about the outsized influence that Trump’s devoted base currently has on GOP politics. He could have distanced himself and congressional Republicans from Trump after January 6, as Cheney urged. Yet instead, he embraced the former president……..

    Whatever you think of this approach, it was never going to be cost-free.

    Now comes a high-profile inquiry that will, as it must, focus on the role played by the then-president of the United States in instigating a demonstration that was specifically intended to pressure then-Vice President Mike Pence and congressional Republicans to derail a constitutionally mandated electoral-vote-counting session. The demonstration, at which Trump gave a demagogic speech, foreseeably deteriorated into a riot — which went on longer than it should have because the then-commander-in-chief declined to use his authority and influence to put a stop to it. …….
    ………
    There are, furthermore, significant matters that need to be pressed and that undercut the Democrats’ political narrative.

    The claims that the riot was a full-blown insurrection on a par with a terrorist mass-murder attack, or that white supremacism is the most perilous “violent extremist” threat facing the country, are sheer nonsense…….

    On the other hand, there was far more death and destruction — including attacks on government buildings — during the months of rioting led by radical leftists following George Floyd’s death in May 2020. Why the selective Democratic outrage about January 6? Why are Democrat-dominated states and cities dropping charges against those rioters?……
    ……..
    Finally, why were the Capitol Police and their partner security forces so utterly undermanned and unprepared? Clearly, the rioters are principally responsible for the mayhem, and secondary culpability belongs to President Trump and others who egged them on. But when a police force is competent and engaged, incendiary situations tend not to explode into riots……..

    All of these questions are relevant to the select committee’s investigation. Republicans need to press them. But they can’t do that if they are AWOL……..

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  84. Time123: the eviction moratorium should absolutely have been paired with a guarantee that if a landlord was unable to get their renters to pay, the state would cover rent for the duration of the moratorium.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  85. > It does a great disservice to personal responsibility and self-reliance to undercut responsible people this way.

    I paid my rent throughout the year despite being unemployed for the entire year, and I do not feel undercut in any way. I came into the year with resources and had limited demands (no children, no serious health issues, no parents to take care of, no disabled spouse to take care of, no burden from consumer debt). I was profoundly well off compared with a lot of people.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  86. > Why the selective Democratic outrage about January 6?

    Because an angry mob broke into the US Capitol *for the explicit purpose of interfering with the certification of an election result they disliked*, and there is substantial reason to believe that they (and the people backing them) will attempt to interfere with election results they dislike in the future.

    Most people I know socially viewed 1-6 as *worse* than 9-11 because it was an attack on democracy from within, as opposed to an attack on us from without.

    The various instances of federal buildings being attacked last summer don’t have the “explicit purpose of interfering with an election” component.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  87. There is something almost hilarious about the claim that only Trump could beat Hillary. In fact polls showed that Trump was likely to lose to her (as he did in the popular vote), and that other Democrats would have been stronger than Hillary against the swamp-dwelling bullfrog. It is as if each party’s voters decided to choose the candidate with the highest unfavorable rating.

    Who would have been the strongest Republican? Probably John Kasich, who has won every general election he has run in, beginning at age 24. (And, were I choosing only on electability, I would have added Marco Rubio for vice president.)

    (In general, Republicans do better when they nominate someone from a working class background; Democrats can get away with nominating people who inherited wealth.)

    There was a startling poll in Pennsylvania during the primaries that showed just how strong Kasich would be in his neighboring state. He was leading Hillary by something like 18 points, while Trump was close to even with her.

    It is unfortunate that Republican voters didn’t understand this. Unlike Trump, Kasich is competent. If he had been our president when COVID hit, our death toll would be far lower than it is, say 200K, instead of 600K. (I am assuming he would have done at least as well as Trudeau in Canada.)

    To go back to the point made by our gracious host – If Carville had been running Hillary’s campaign, she probably would have won.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  88. In a Kasich Clinton contest I would probably have voted for Kasich.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  89. Recent statement at a press conference with Merkel.

    Pres. Biden: “Communism is a failed system, universally failed system, and I don’t see socialism as a very useful substitute.”

    Pretty solid statement from a center left President.

    Time123 (f78123)

  90. Oh, and since we are on candidates, here’s the COVID record for “Killer” Kristi Noem

    Unsurprisingly, these states experienced stunningly different outcomes. Adjusted for population, nearly six times as many people died in South Dakota from covid-19 as in Vermont (230 per 100,000 in South Dakota compared to just 40 per 100,000 in Vermont). In real numbers, while about 250 Vermont residents died from the disease, more than 2,000 South Dakotans died. And as of today, Vermont has a lower unemployment rate, suggesting that there need not be any trade-off between public health and the economy.

    The two states are surprisingly similar, older, mostly white, rural, with Republican governors. The differences mostly favor South Dakota, since it is farther away from the initial pandemic states, and has more space per person.

    In my opinion, Noem should resign in disgrace.

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  91. 89… well, gee whiz. I guess that settles that then.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  92. Although Biden at times is cause for amusement with what he manages to say, the proof is in his actions.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  93. “Communism is a failed system, universally failed system, and I don’t see socialism as a very useful substitute.” – Squinty McStumblebum.

    That would be news to the PRC- as their ‘communism’ is financing, if not propping up ‘capitalism’ in the West; and not ‘seeing socialism as a useful substitute’ would be news to the Israelis and Brits w/their beloved NHS as well as America’s Medicare system, Social Security Administration– and the United States Postal Service, Squinty. But hey, go ahead and piss off the elderly, you brain-damaged mick. They only vote. What did Delaware, Big Guy? Idaho, Alaska–right?!

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  94. China has at this point abandoned any pretense that their policies are rooted in socialist theory. They are a form of state-run capitalism focused entirely on maintenance of power.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  95. I came into the year with resources

    So, you didn’t struggle to pay the rent. What about those who did?

    I note that car prices are going through the roof. Coincidence, I think not.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  96. They are a form of state-run capitalism focused entirely on maintenance of power.

    Oh, there is quite a bit of socialism there. Many state-run industries and services run at a constant loss. There’s lots of construction that goes underused, both public and private — something that would crash in an open market.

    I’d call it “crony socialism” myself.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  97. I hope that the rent money they give out is taxable income.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  98. I note that car prices are going through the roof. Coincidence, I think not.

    I’ve taken two of mine in for service at dealers within last two weeks and was shocked at the minimal inventory they both had. I’d read how bad it was getting but this was an eye opener. Folks that can hold off on a purchase of a new or used car should do it until the situation improves.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  99. FWIW, “Emperor” Xi (like some of his predecessors) is calling it Socialism_with_Chinese_characteristics, or as a critic might say, a sort of national socialism. Which evolves as China develops.

    Kevin – I am not a Chinese specialist, but I have seen news reports that Xi is trying to reduce the cronyism — and thereby making the economic growth in China slow down.

    (The idea that a certain level of corruption can make an economy grow faster is not new, nor is it limited to China. I’ve seen that argument made in the past about Italy, for example.)

    Jim Miller (edcec1)

  100. 70… 8 out of 10 Biden fluffers prefer Rancida Tilapia over Alopecia Pressley.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  101. I note that car prices are going through the roof. Coincidence, I think not.

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 7/15/2021 @ 5:44 pm

    there’s a huge chip shortage.

    https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/semiconductors/devices/how-and-when-the-chip-shortage-will-end-in-4-charts

    This is slowed auto production to a crawl. That’s driven down inventory and driven prices up. Inventory has gotten so ow that used car prices are through the roof. Within a couple grand of new car prices. This is a BIG part of why inflation is up.

    CH is correct, if you can wait to buy a car you want to do so.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  102. I’m holding off on buying an Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio and I am in full jonesin’ mode…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  103. Before we get into how the shortage will end, it’s worth summing up how it began. With panic, lockdowns, and general uncertainty rolling across the globe, automakers cancelled orders. However, those conditions meant a big fraction of the workforce recreated the office at home, purchasing computers, monitors, and other equipment. At the same time entire school systems switched to virtual learning via laptops and tablets. And more time at home also meant more spending on home entertainment, such as TVs and game consoles. These, the 5G rollout, and continued growth in cloud computing quickly hoovered up the capacity automakers had unceremoniously freed. By the time car makers realized people still wanted to buy their goods they found themselves at the back of the line for the chips they needed.

    Another part of the source not covered in the article is that OEMs don’t buy chips directly. They buy them as part of control modules and other parts. Since they come from many different T2 suppliers. The OEM’s didn’t have visibility on what the order cancelations would do to the chips suppliers and so were caught unaware when they couldn’t ramp back up to meet demand. It was still a mistake, but because there wasn’t communication between the OEMs and chip suppliers GM/Ford/Tesla/Toyota didn’t see the overall impact. If they he’d they would have likely paid to keep their place in line.

    This has another knock on effect. While prices are up and that helps revenue for the OEM T2 suppliers have contacts with locked in prices. In many cases it’s not economical to run a factory at lower capacity. While they’ll find strategies to minimize that it still means that suppliers, especially ones with high Capex are under tremendous strain right now. More manpower intensive suppliers have problems as well since their workforce isn’t working as many hours.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  104. CH, if you’re looking to buy new you might not have to wait as long. Depending. On local conditions the price might only be up a few k. For a variety of reasons auto prices tend to be ‘sticky’ and much of the impact will be in eliminating incentives and pulling profit from the dealerships in ways that the customer doesn’t see.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  105. I am little surprised that you’re spending that much money on car that’s neither designed nor built in the US. I’m fine with your choice, but from your comments I’d thought you were a made in America type of person.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  106. My current car is a Ford. Cannot be more American that Ford; they didn’t even take a special Obama BK deal. But it is far older than I normally have and it’s starting to eat rubber parts. I had my eye on one of several Korean SUVs that just came out with fully new models, but I guess I’ll wait. Although I do wonder if Korea has the same chip shortage. Samsung is a major player in that world.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  107. Except for old Fiats, I normally buy new, but I’ll let someone else take the 20k depreciation hit this time. This may well be my last car purchase. My wife and I normally keep our cars quite long… e.g., 2001 Toyota Highlander (235k miles, still in great shape!)… an ‘81 Fiat X1/9 that I bought from a friend in 2006 that now has 232k miles… a 2013 MB E350 BlueTec 65k miles and a 2012 Fiat 500 Abarth with 51k miles. I’ll have to get rid of one of these to get the Alfa and I’m leaning toward giving the x1/9 to my son.

    I’ve had okay experience with Ford and Chrysler, but not good enough to buy another. I will never buy another GM product, that’s how bad they’ve been for me.

    I take great care of our cars and, with the exceptions noted, they’ve served us well.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  108. > Although I do wonder if Korea has the same chip shortage

    Many of these supply disruptions, chips included, are global.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  109. Inventory has gotten so ow that used car prices are through the roof. Within a couple grand of new car prices. This is a BIG part of why inflation is up.

    We recently traded in our minivan–after three kids and over 140K miles, it’s basically a candidate for the junkyard or one of those JD Byrider-type places. The taillight was hanging off of the vehicle when we drove it into the lot for the trade-in. We still got $5000 for it, which was a nice carve-off of the low-miles replacement we bought.

    Factory Working Orphan (2775f0)

  110. They are a form of state-run capitalism focused entirely on maintenance of power.

    If you believe that there’s a bridge in Brooklyn a Chinaman wants to sell you. They’re as red as the blood vessels in Squinty McStumblebum’s damaged brain.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  111. Not bad… I remember trading in our ‘87 Dodge Caravan on a new ‘97 Ford Windstar… that Caravan could barely get out of its own way, but a very comfortable road trip cruiser. I jumped into the back of that Caravan for the last time to make sure I hadn’t missed any kid items and when I opened the cubby hole storage compartment I found a half-eaten, nearly petrified PBJ sammy. Damn kids!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  112. I would never have voted for Kasich.

    Don’t forget, he’s the one who gave Trump the primary win. He had no shot at the nomination, but stayed in to split the anti-Trump vote to prevent Cruz from getting the win. He wanted Hillary to beat Trump.

    No thanks.

    NJRob (eb56c3)


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