Meanwhile, in America’s Largest City
[guest post by JVW]
With all of the crazy news out there, perhaps you are like me and have paid scant attention to this month’s mayoral primary contest in New York City, in which the top two finishers, one Democrat and one Republican, will advance to a November election in which they will be joined by assorted candidates representing various other parties. Among the Democrats is last year’s Presidential aspirant Andrew Yang who has seen his fortunes fall dramatically over the past six months, from being the front-runner at the tail-end of last year to now perhaps finding himself staring up at the top two candidates. It’s a very sudden descent (Yang was leading the polling pretty strongly as recently as six weeks ago), and Kyle Smith over at National Review Online thinks he knows why:
So what happened? People started asking Yang questions about New York City. And he answered them. He has said so many embarrassing things that New Yorkers are starting to compare his leadership qualities to those of The Office’s Michael Scott. “Cringe, in many ways, has been what the Yang campaign runs on,” wrote New York Times critic James Poniewozik.
Like Trump, Yang has zero experience in government. And, like Trump, he hopes to be seen as a rich businessman who can break and/or fix things. Also like Trump, Yang lunges at every microphone and camera. He will talk to anybody, even comedians, and he is unembarrassable. Though Yang has lived in the city for 22 years, he gives off the impression that he either hasn’t been paying attention or has been out of town a lot. Poniewozik assembled against Yang the following damning indictment:
He tweeted his love of New York “bodegas” with a video of what looked like a capacious supermarket. He reminisced about waiting “in,” not “on,” line at a “NY restaurant,” Shake Shack.
To that can be added the following: Yang complained that the city is not enforcing rules against unlicensed street vendors (which felt like a dig against immigrants and the harmless yet colorful vibe they bring to the streets). He has said of fellow candidate Kathryn Garcia both that she has demonstrated incompetence by having served under Bill de Blasio and that he would hire her to manage his government for him. He has blanked out when asked basic questions about NYPD reforms, how he would pay for his fanciful idea to wrest control of the subway system from New York State, and what his favorite Jay-Z song is.
And here was the capper: Asked to name his favorite subway stop, Yang said, “Times Square.” This was evidence of some next-level cluelessness; one of the things that binds all New Yorkers together is that we all hate tourists and the wellspring from which they emerge, Times Square. The remark reinforced the perception that Yang, who grew up in the suburbs north of the city and went to boarding school at Phillips Exeter Academy, is not a true member of our strange New York City tribe.
The accusation that native son Yang is not a true New Yorker is pretty remarkable considering that the current mayor of Gotham, the execrable Bill de Blasio, spent most of his childhood living in Cambridge and continues to profess his loyalty to the Boston Red Sox, of all the ways to poke New Yorkers in the eye.
I admired Andrew Yang’s performance last year, though I acknowledge that I found his universal basic income idea a bit daffy. But Kyle Smith (another Massachusetts transplant, but one who seems to more readily identify himself as a New Yorker) judges Mr. Yang’s performance in the mayoral election this year to be almost embarrassing, from his ignorance of the city he hopes to lead to his wimpy backtracking after having expressed support for Israel’s right to defend itself against Palestinian rocket fire. And Mr. Smith alerts us to a fact that I had not previously known about Mr. Yang, namely that he isn’t the amazing dot-com mogul that he and his fans would want you to believe:
Yet, unlike Trump, Yang cannot point to any entity or edifice and brag that he built it; his signature accomplishment was a flashy nonprofit career-training outfit that promised to incubate 100,000 jobs but fell 99,850 short and burned through tens of millions in donations in the process. Yang’s other achievement is climbing confidently up the rungs of private industry all the way to the position of chief of a small test-prep company you’ve never heard of. His net worth is about $1 million, according to Forbes, which for a 46-year-old lawyer in Manhattan who got his J.D. from Columbia University is slightly embarrassing. (At major city law firms, starting salaries approach $200,000.) Yang seems to think that his self-styled “entrepreneur” label makes him sound like a rich guy who doesn’t like to brag, but in fact he’s just another schmuck on the No. 2 train.
Well, somebody’s gotta be mayor of that town. I have zero opinion on any of the other candidates except for to note that they are pretty much exactly the sort of candidates you would expect in New York City of 2021. I guess we’ll find out who makes it to November soon enough, but I must confess that Kyle Smith has me seeing Andrew Yang in a whole new light, far more unflattering than how I viewed him last year.
– JVW
If the Shake Shacks in New York are pretty much the same as the ones which opened in Los Angeles a few years back, it’s overrated in that special myopic way that so many things from New York are overrated.
JVW (ee64e4) — 6/2/2021 @ 5:33 pmAgreed on Shake Shack – their concr..er..vanilla shakes might be the inspiration for the favorite in Antifa’s arsenal. Yang might just be a less malevolent east coast iteration of Beto O’Rourke
urbanleftbehind (93c868) — 6/2/2021 @ 7:17 pmIt’s really too bad that Yang couldn’t have waited to self-destruct until he was the candidate. That worked well for Barack Obama.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 6/2/2021 @ 7:21 pmYang is a political dilettante. Haven’t we seen enough of them to last a lifetime?
Rip Murdock (dd79dd) — 6/2/2021 @ 7:52 pmNew York politicians might not be the politicians New Yorkers need but they are the ones they deserve.
Favorite subway stop? Real deep thinkers those people are.
nk (1d9030) — 6/2/2021 @ 7:59 pmThe New York Mayoral Election Is No Longer Andrew Yang’s To Lose
………
After spending much of the race as the first choice of at least 20 percent — sometimes even 30 percent — of voters, Yang has fallen back into the teens and is roughly tied with (Eric Adams, the Brooklyn borough president) and with (Kathryn Garcia, the former sanitation commissioner), who is now polling in the double digits even according to a Yang internal poll. (In fact, the most recent poll, from Emerson College/PIX11 News, showed Garcia getting 21 percent of first-choice votes and winning the Democratic nomination after 11 rounds of instant runoffs. However, so far, this poll is an outlier.)
Garcia’s dramatic improvement is most likely thanks to her May 10 endorsement by the New York Times editorial board……..
Rip Murdock (dd79dd) — 6/2/2021 @ 8:04 pm…….
Be cautious with polls of this race, though. It’s hard enough to accurately poll an oddly timed local election; it’s even harder to accurately poll one that uses ranked-choice voting. ……
………
Would they do just as well picking a mayor at random? Or by lottery?
frosty (f27e97) — 6/2/2021 @ 8:50 pmAndrew Yang has no neck.
norcal (081862) — 6/2/2021 @ 9:03 pmWell, somebody’s gotta be mayor of that town.
And one helluva town it is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ku5WeNn_unE
DCSCA (f4c5e5) — 6/2/2021 @ 9:50 pmMeanwhile, Biden gives Arctic to Putin.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 6/2/2021 @ 10:33 pmAnd here was the capper: Asked to name his favorite subway stop, Yang said, “Times Square.” This was evidence of some next-level cluelessness; one of the things that binds all New Yorkers together is that we all hate tourists and the wellspring from which they emerge, Times Square. The remark reinforced the perception that Yang, who grew up in the suburbs north of the city and went to boarding school at Phillips Exeter Academy, is not a true member of our strange New York City tribe.
‘We New Yorkers’??? WTF. Clueless Smith has his head so far up Miss Liberty’s azz he’s gabbing out her nostrils; which reinforces the perception that he’s the last living gentrifying yuppie allowed in from Massachusetts. New Yorkers love tourists – especially when they spend their tourist dollars in Times Square, crossroads of the world, [you closeted BoSox twit] catch a few shows on Broadway, a drink at Sardi’s, cut a rug in the Rainbow Room, a steak at Smith & Wolensky’s; actually have a bagel for breakfast at Tiffany’s; visit Fox News HQ at 1211 6th and Trump Tower on Fifth, experience 30 Rock; pray at St. Paddy’s; shop at Macy’s and Bloomies, hit the Diamond District; see the treasures at the MoMA and the Museum of Natural History by day [before it comes alive at night;] the Hayden Planetarium; salute the USS Intrepid during Fleet Week and sprint through Grand Central at rush hour; learn who is buried in Grant’s Tomb [ do you know is, Kyle?] Ask one of New York’s Finest how do you get to Carnegie Hall; dare to walk through and to the Central Park Zoo; see the Chrysler Building and every spot where they filmed Ghostbusters, and the spot where Lennon was shot. Wave at New Jersey from the Empire State Building; go gaily through the Village and dine in Tribeca, move chop-chop through Chinatwon, grab your wallet on Wall Street; weep at the footprints of WTC Memorial and cheer the Freedom Tower; kiss Lady Liberty’s feet if she’ll let you; catch a Yankee game if you can, a Met or Knicks game if you dare. Then catch your breath and a train to the plane at JFK– and go back to Massachusetts.
DCSCA (f4c5e5) — 6/2/2021 @ 10:45 pmNew Yorkers love tourists – especially when they spend their tourist dollars in Times Square. . .
Times Square was a helluva lot more fun in the pre-Disney days.
JVW (ee64e4) — 6/3/2021 @ 12:23 amThey should beg Giuliani to come back, but they’re too busy trying to prosecute him on trumped up charges.
“Show me the man and I’ll show you the crime.”
NJRob (6826a3) — 6/3/2021 @ 5:38 amRob, Rudy has become a clownish shadow of the man he used to be. NYC can do better.
Time123 (b87ded) — 6/3/2021 @ 6:03 amThey should beg Giuliani to come back, but they’re too busy trying to prosecute him on trumped up charges.
Rip Murdock (dd79dd) — 6/3/2021 @ 6:06 amInteresting choice of words…….pun not intended?
That gets it wrong. There is no runoff.
The Democratic and Republican party have separate primaries. There are only two candidates in the Republican primary – one of them was just endorsed by Mike Flynn because he says the other, Curtis Sliwa, whom you may have heard of, is a Never Trumper. The Republican candidate doesn’t normally stand achance even though a Republican was elected five times in a row from 1993 to 2009. But that person is really running as an independent, and has other ballot lines. A good Republican can expect to get abut 30% of the vote, getting majorities only in selected places in the city.
What we will have on Tuesday June 22 *+(with early voting beginning June 12) is a Democratic primary. There is still time to register if someone wasn’t registered but it is too late to switch parties and you must be enrolled inn that party to vote in its primary. It used to be that the deadline for switching parties was the previous November election (in reality sometime in early October) but they changed that this year.
It used to be, since Mario Procaccino, a conservative, won the Democratic primary for mayor in 1969 (Lindsey lost the Republican primary but was re-elected that year running on the Liberal party line alone) , that if no candidate got at least 40% (and the runner up did not concede) there was a runoff two weeks later * in all citywide primaries (not for City Council of Borough President, which is a largely powerless office except for city planning and zoning and lobbying)
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*
When the primary was in September, the state legislature would sometimes alter the date of the primary because of conflict with a Jewish holiday, sometimes holding it on a Thursday (the favorite day if the week if not Tuesday) In 2001, there were three primaries – the interrupted and then invalidated Sept 11 primary, and then a primary and a runoff – plus the general election in November. The state legislature also changed the primary date from September 11 in 2007, 2012, and 2018.
Sometimes the two top finishers got in the 20s – in one case, for Public Advocate there were four candidates clumped around 16%.
This year there will be ranked choice voting which could also be called an instant runoff, although the winner will not be known for at least three weeks, although you’ll know the first choice picks of around 70% of the voters maybe the next day.
There are about 13 candidates, and 8 serious ones, and 4 or 5 leaders, or maybe three, with the top two being Andrew Yang and Eric Adams.
Each voter will be able to vote for up to five choices. If they vote for someone in two positions, only the higher ranked choice counts, if they vote for two different people at the same rank, the ballot is spoiled beyond that point – and I think they can skip one rank. I don’t know how they handle write-ins. It is easy if all write-ins combined rank last. But if not, will they have to determine for whom the write-ins are for before proceeding any further?
It might be that the only thing that counts is, if they include both, which of the two do they rank higher. It is kind of important to choose five if there are one or more potential finishers whom you would never vote for.
Now what they do, once ALL the ballots have been received, is drop the lowest rank candidate and then look at whom the votes for that candidate rank second. And continue until someone gets over 50%
Ranked choice voting in New York City applies only in primaries, and only to offices created by the City Charter. It does not apply to judges, or to district attorneys. (District Attorneys arr elected for 4 years, but the terms do not end in the same year – if one gets replaced by a special election in the middle of a term, you start the 4 years from there) It also would not apply to state legislators or statewide races but none are up this year
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/nyregion/ranked-choice-voting-nyc.html
https://vote.nyc/page/ranked-choice-voting
Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c) — 6/3/2021 @ 7:17 amHe’s running much too scared.
But you have to figure out what he would be likely, and not likely, to do.
Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c) — 6/3/2021 @ 7:20 amHe shops there, but that is not what most people would call a bodega, if they use that word.
That plan was borrowed from somebody else, and of course assumes that the city will not take over most of the debt. He was running on it, but maybe stopped. Now his chief fiscal complaint is that Nayor de Blasio wants to use up the special stimulus money the city is getting, leaving the city in a big hole in 2023.
Yesterday, maybe in order not to inconsistent, he again named Kathryn Garcia as his second choice. (most of the other seven candidates in the debate avoided naming or refused to name a second choice) He was also the only candidate who said he would want the endorsement both of Bill de Blasio and Andrew Cuomo (he was just being honest here)
He should have that, while he occasionally listened to him atone point, he was not a fan amd didn’t know the names of any songs.
It is his favorite statioon. He lives in the neighborhood (Hell’s Kitchen also known as Clinton) Any place west of 9th Avenue is Hell’s Kitchen. Times Square is by 7th avenue. It would be his favorite because it connects to more – besides the A train on 8th avenue is linked.
In the debate he noted that they actually did it now. $3,200 plus an increased child tax credit (given monthly at that.) He said that shows that things can happen.
It wasn;t real backtracking. He added people to be sympathetic to.
Too many people are against him too much.
Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c) — 6/3/2021 @ 7:43 amPart of the debate:
Extracted from here: https://news.yahoo.com/nyc-mayoral-candidates-debate-crime-023630953.html
Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c) — 6/3/2021 @ 8:59 amBTW, Sliwa got Giuliani’s endorsement on Stephen Crowder’s show last week.
Ranked choice voting is a scam.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 6/3/2021 @ 9:31 amNJRob (eb56c3) — 6/3/2021 @ 9:31 am
When there are only two candidates, it doesn’t mean anything.
It’s been demonstrated that sometimes, a voter ranking a candidate lower than another can result in the lower ranked preference winning because the order of elimination is different.
https://www.cato-unbound.org/2016/12/09/jason-sorens/false-promise-instant-runoff-voting
And ballots do get exhausted although that’s not worse than when over 60% of the voters don’t vote for the winner in a first past the post race. In this race, Andrew Yang is likely to pick up fewer second and later choice votes than Eric Adams (from voters who’s higher choices are neither of them)
Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c) — 6/3/2021 @ 10:38 amIdeally, runoff elections should be made available only to the voters who chose a third-place or below candidate in the subject election, for purposes of choosing either #1 or #2. But doing that requires purple thumbprint level verification, a much more robust “receipt” than the I VOTED sticker etc…
urbanleftbehind (3593ed) — 6/3/2021 @ 10:53 amYou can still get the need-to-vote-for-the-lesser-evil problem.
I think what it is is that you “up-vote” your lesser-evil candidate if that candidate is on the cusp of being eliminated befpre your favorite candidate, who, however, is not likely to be other people’s lesser evil.
What happened in Burlington. Vermont, in 2009:
https://rangevoting.org/Burlington.html
Go through it.
Bob KISS s the Progressive, Kurt WRIGHT is the Republican and Andy MONTROLL is the Democrat.
Actually, if this had been first-past-the-post Kiss would have been the spoiler. But it wasn’t, andd ot could be argued that, under these circumstances, Wright was the spoiler.
Continuing:
There could be other elimination systems that won’t have this problem/
What if you tried all possible orders of elimination, at least where the difference was not great?
In Burlington, by the way, the bottom two and all write-ins were eliminated simultaneously on the grounds they did not enough lower tier votes.
Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c) — 6/3/2021 @ 11:06 amMore argument about the effect of ranked choice voting in the 2009 Brlington ermont mayoral election:
https://rangevoting.org/BurlResponses.html#noshow
There’s the no show paradox.
This discusses “range: or “score” voting.
https://rangevoting.org/RangeVoting.html
They claim it decreases the importance of “convincing voters you can win” (as opposed to “convincing them you are the best”
It probably asks people to say too much.
Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c) — 6/3/2021 @ 11:24 amArgunent why unknown lunatic wins (something that actually happened in Illinois in a primary for Lt. Gov in 1986)
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-03-20-mn-21472-story.html)
argument why th is not a problem under range voting:
https://rangevoting.org/BetterQuorum.html
The argument is that many people will rank unknown candidates lowest, not no opinion. So they came with a modification. You start off with each candidate getting a number of votes at the lowest rank equal to about the maximum size of a small core group of fanatics. It’s called a “soft quorum”
Of course you wouldn’t really get an unknown lunatic winning. You could more likely get a person whom not many people know is a lunatic.
I know there is something else, where you subtract a vote from a candidates total, so you could vote three ways (for, abstain and against) This was used in the Republic of Venice.
Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c) — 6/3/2021 @ 11:39 am