Patterico's Pontifications

4/23/2021

Caitlin Jenner Will Run for Governor of California

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:29 am



A friend asked this morning:

Why would an inexperienced celebrity who’s never run for anything before and has a kind of weird public persona think they could run for Governor of California?

That’s a good line to start with. But if you slice off the last two words (“of California”) it gets even more interesting.

Screen Shot 2021-04-23 at 8.43.25 AM

Jesse Ventura could not be reached for comment.

52 Responses to “Caitlin Jenner Will Run for Governor of California”

  1. My biggest fear with the recall is that, because it’s a single ballot with all candidates and the candidate with the most votes will win, the vote will get scattered across many candidates resulting in someone winning with < 20% of the vote. Jenner could do that, and it's possible if the Trumpists unite behind a candidate that *they* could do that.

    I'm very likely to vote no on the recall itself for explicitly that reason.

    aphrael (4c4719)

  2. OMG – She’s going to take on McConaughey??!!

    Looks like California is going to be the big winner, no matter what the result.

    Those of us on the East Coast are green with envy.

    John B Boddie (55235a)

  3. If Trump could run for President ….

    I mean, like, comparatively, you know … this oughta be cakewalk for Jenner.

    nk (1d9030)

  4. If Schwarzenegger could do it…

    Paul Montagu (26e0d1)

  5. Still crossing my fingers that Marianne Williamson will run – for JVW’s sake.

    Dave (1bb933)

  6. Dies it mean anything for anyone running for Governor of California to say they are running as a Democrat or a Republican? (does the self-declared party affiliation appear on the ballot?)

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  7. ditto sammy’s question. There seems to be a lot of delight from the right that a transgender person is running as a republican’s because they think it will make dem’s that don’t support her look like hypocrites. But there’s a large swatch of the GOP that hates trans people and this has to be offensive to them.

    Time123 (235fc4)

  8. I read Mad Magazine when I was a kid, and of course every four years they would launch the Alfred E. Newman for President campaign. His campaign slogan was “You could do worse, and you usually do,” which, if Mad has not somehow copyrighted, ought to be the Caitlyn Jenner campaign slogan.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  9. a large swath, eh

    i missed the poll asking do you hate trans people and a large swath said yes

    JF (e1156d)

  10. Still crossing my fingers that Marianne Williamson will run – for JVW’s sake.

    You know, Time123 actually interacted with her on Twitter which makes me super jealous. Somehow he has got the notion that she is into crystals, and I have no idea where he would have come up with that crazy idea.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  11. Dies it mean anything for anyone running for Governor of California to say they are running as a Democrat or a Republican?

    If my memory from 2003 serves, party affiliation does appear on the recall ballot just as it would in a primary election, but Caitlyn Jenner or someone else who already is generally known to the public could easily run on a No Party Preference designation.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  12. It gets better. Soooo much better:

    Former Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale is assisting Caitlyn Jenner as she mulls a potential challenge to California Gov. Gavin Newsom in this year’s recall, a source familiar with the matter tells The Post.

    Parscale, who has known Jenner personally for a few years, is helping her with staffing critical personnel as she considers launching a gubernatorial bid, the source says.

    The former campaign manager began connecting the Olympian and reality television star with the right politicos for her team after she reached out asking for assistance.

    Dave (1bb933)

  13. Fun fact: California now has the lowest daily case rate (per capita) in the country.

    I got shot #2 yesterday; 20 minutes in and out, 15 of which was the post-jab “observation period”.

    Dave (1bb933)

  14. … Jesse Ventura could not be reached for comment.

    Ask Ronald Reagan.

    Oh. Wait. He can’t be reached for comment either.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  15. JF

    Figure 2 in the attached shows 30% of conservatives feel we’ve gone to far in accepting trans ppl. Other data lines up as well.

    Time123 (235fc4)

  16. Ventura was a joke, but Reagan had leadership experience before he became governor.

    Time123 (235fc4)

  17. Former Trump 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale is assisting Caitlyn Jenner

    If Trump’s rally organizer does not understand delusional grandiose freaks in need of affirmation, who does?

    nk (1d9030)

  18. who indeed mr nk

    Dave (1bb933)

  19. @15: the word you chose was hate, and that ain’t it, unless you’re aligned with how democrats reflexively demonize differing viewpoints

    JF (e1156d)

  20. Unfortunately, I doubt Bruce has the deep pockets necessary to support Brad in the style to which he became accustomed last year.

    Dave (1bb933)

  21. From the LAT:

    Jenner’s campaign invites inevitable comparisons to Arnold Schwarzenegger, the former body-building champion turned movie star, businessman and reality television host who was elected governor during the 2003 recall. That assessment ignores the differences between the two, who have been friends since the height of their athletic stardom in the 1970s. Schwarzenegger had been vocally involved in California politics, notably education issues, before he ran for governor. Jenner has not.

    Reagan was also deeply involved in Republican politics before he ran for governor.

    Rip Murdock (46eeea)

  22. Jenner should at least vote in elections before running:

    …….
    Jenner, a 71-year-old political neophyte who has criticized Gov. Gavin Newsom’s performance on social media, did not vote in the 2018 gubernatorial election that delivered Newsom the biggest landslide victory for a non-incumbent since 1930. She also did not vote in the historic 2003 recall that ejected then-Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and brought Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger to power, according to records kept by the Los Angeles County Registrar of Voters.

    Jenner never cast a ballot in the 2016 elections won by former President Donald Trump — including the GOP primary that anointed him as the party leader and his nail-biting general election contest against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

    All told, Jenner has voted just nine times in California’s 26 statewide elections since 2000, the records show. Seven of those were statewide general elections, including five presidential contests. The two exceptions were the February 2008 presidential primary and the November 2005 special election featuring several ballot measures backed by Schwarzenegger.
    ……..

    Rip Murdock (46eeea)

  23. 16.Ventura was a joke, but Reagan had leadership experience before he became governor.

    As a leading man with Virginia Mayo, leading Bonzo around and leading a union of actors as an actor himself for a time– while a Democrat, but never won an Oscar, nor ever appeared on a box of Wheaties even for playing a dead Notre Dame football player.

    At the 1976 Olympic Games in Montreal, Jenner won the Olympic decathlon gold medal for the United States. And in 1978, Jenner snagged one of the sports world’s biggest honors: appearing on the Wheaties cereal box.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  24. Reagan was also deeply involved in Republican politics before he ran for governor.

    Pfft. Reaganoptics: GE Theater; he made speeches.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  25. Dave (1bb933) — 4/23/2021 @ 10:08 am

    Fun fact: California now has the lowest daily case rate (per capita) in the country.

    I know someone whom I heard just got out of the intensive care unit.

    He might have gotten in Florida during Passover, but it will be counted as a New York case in any case.

    His brother just got out of quarantine (I had though the brother was actually sick)

    This is the second person I know personally who was in intensive care (well I also knew somewhat the 24 year old mentally disabled boy who died)

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  26. OMG – She’s going to take on McConaughey??!!

    No, sorry — he’s thinking of running for Governor in Texas.

    Patterico (e349ce)

  27. I see everybody (in media) making the same mistake in calculating the odds of getting a blood clot idf you get vaccinated with the J&J vaccine and if you get no vaccination at all:

    They are based on assuming that the odds of getting Covid if you don’t get vaccinated are 100%

    For example, this:

    https://nypost.com/2021/04/22/feds-foolish-jj-vax-pause-is-already-undermining-the-war-on-covid

    These populations also face far more risk of blood clots from contracting COVID-19 than they do from the J&J vaccine. A study from the University of Oxford found that the likelihood of CVST in the two weeks after being diagnosed with COVID-19 was 100 times the risk in the general population without the disease and about eight times the incidence following the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine that uses a similar adenovirus platform as the J&J vaccine.

    Put another way: Your risk of getting those CVST blood clots is much higher without the J&J vaccine.

    Not true, because the risk of getting Covid, in the immediate future, even if not vaccinated, is low.

    They are so anxious to debunk fear of vaccines that they don’t see the flaw in their argument. Or worse, they do see it, and they deliberately mislead.

    The missing piece of data is: What are the odds of getting Covid?

    The CDC isn’t supplying an estimate, but you can supply several different guesses.

    Right now there are about 50,000 cases a day in the United States that are reported to the CDC, and they are expected to get lower. Total number of cases in the future, you can’t say, but if it reaches the point in six months that they consider it insignificant , there should be about another 500,000 cases, assuming there’s no surge, and no variant not affected by the vaccine. (saying we must vaccinate fast in order to avoid a resistant mutation from spreading is, of course, the opposite of the truth)

    If they get back on track there should be about 750,000 doses of J&J a day. So there are 15 times as many J&J vaccinations as there are Covid cases. Or total J&J vaccinations – say 30 million. That;s 60 times the number of vaccinations as there are cases

    Another way: There’ve been close to 32 million cases, and 222 million vaccinations a ratio of 7 to 1, which is not at all stable but should be expected to be below the historical average in the future.

    Of course even at 60x the number of vaccinations as reported infections, the idds are still lower with the vaccine, but not by that much.

    And there are other risks with getting infected.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  28. There are a number of things I want to put later in the open thread:

    Joe Biden’s political cowardice – and the reason he didn’t want to raise the refugee quota (thething he fears most is setting a quota and not filling it)

    Earth Day temoeratures – and a WSJ op ed piece last week Friday where I agree except about one thing – there is greater variability in weather and his statistic tends to prove it, not disprove it.

    The U.S. military is planning for more Taliban attacks in Afghanistan and the possible necessity of adding troops to protect the withdrawal. Joe Biden’s real withdrawal date, by the way, is in July. not Sept 11. Sept 11 is there in case things go wrong – it gives him some margin.

    Russia reversed the mobilization. Possibly this was based on a misreading of U.S. intentions.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  29. aphrael,

    If I were you, I wouldn’t worry about the recall resulting in Jenner or somebody else becoming governor. The new governor would still have an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature to contend with.

    Full disclosure: I can’t stand Newsome. Last fall, when asked if he was concerned about people moving out of California, his response was something like, “Where are you gonna go?” Talk about being out of touch.

    The Beverly Hillbillies theme song no longer applies, Gavin.

    norcal (01e272)

  30. California has a long tradition of Mayor/Governor runs by, shall we say, people with character. The sense of the question indeed changes with generality.

    The thing about this that amuses me the most is that right-leaning people of a certain type seem to believe this is some horrible gotcha for “woke California liberals”, because they utterly fail to understand the relevant tribal differences.

    I personally think it is great that Jenner can live as the person she feels she is. Transitioning doesn’t make you credible candidate for anything, though, and it certainly doesn’t magically make selfish jerks, misguided fools or malignant narcissists not those things.

    The belief that it should be some sort of conflict to vote ‘hell no’ to her just betrays how little those people actually understand what they seem to fear so much.

    john (cd2753)

  31. Newsom wastes no time tying Bruce to Donald

    A few hours after Jenner, a Republican, announced her candidacy, Newsom sent an email blast to his donors tying the celebrity and ex-Olympian to former President Trump and asking for funds.

    “Earlier this morning, Caitlyn Jenner announced she was running for Governor of California as part of this Republican recall attempt,” the email read. “What’s more, she is working closely with Donald Trump’s former presidential campaign manager and the person behind his small-dollar fundraising success.

    “We’re going to need help keeping up with Caitlyn’s personal wealth and ability to raise money from right-wing donors now that she has Trump’s team with her,” the email continued. “Can you rush a $3 contribution to Gavin Newsom’s campaign to stop the right-wing Republican recall. He needs your help to keep up with the Trump team behind Caitlyn Jenner’s campaign.”

    Dave (1bb933)

  32. There was an Old Man on a hill,
    Who seldom, if ever, stood still;
    He ran up and down
    in his Grandmother’s gown,
    Which adorned that Old Man on a hill.

    nk (1d9030)

  33. Funny poem, nk!

    It also doubles as a synopsis of “Psycho”. 🙂

    norcal (01e272)

  34. Jenner “transitioned” at age 65. (He’s halfway from 71 to 72 now.) That’s not trans woman. That’s senile old coot. Who killed a woman in a traffic accident. Rear-ended her with his pickup and boat trailer and pushed her car into oncoming traffic. But the Kardashians have the best publicists in the world.

    nk (1d9030)

  35. 27 errata:

    Correction: but if it reaches the point in six months that they consider it insignificant , there should be about another 5,000,000 cases [5 million]

    So 6 times, not 60 times the number of J&J vaccinations.

    That makes the vaccination a clear favorable bet, even if it is J&J.

    Of course, the reason J&J and Covid both cause clots is because the vaccine presents the body with some of the same antigens. It would be a good idea to try to determine what in the vaccine and the virus can cause the auto-immune reaction and eliminate it from the vaccine – but that would be using too much sense,

    Meanwhile the CDC slowly, slowly, is eliminating wrong advice. They got rid of most of the advice about cleaning of surfaces — now going is the wearing of masks outdoors. (although in dense crowds it could make sense)

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  36. @32.

    There was an Old Man on a staircase,
    Who tried to climb it at an airbase;
    He ran up and fell down;
    Three times with a frown,
    T’was the wind, said Old Man with a straight face.

    DCSCA (f4c5e5)

  37. It’s a classic limerick by Edward Lear, of The Owl and the Pussy-Cat fame, norcal.

    nk (1d9030)

  38. That’s good to know, nk. I wish I had your level of literary knowledge.

    I’m retired now, so I guess I should hop to it.

    norcal (01e272)

  39. An estimated 330,000 new cases a day in India – and the more serious the cases, the more serious are the new cases I think. China reports no pr next to no non-imported cases, but two Chinese brought the disease to Cambodia. The Chinese vaccine is only 16% effective with one dose (maybe 66% with two)

    Chile has discovered it doesn;t work too well. A Chinese scientist proposes combining two Chinese vaccines. In Hong Kong the medical people take the Pfizer vaccine – those who need to find favor with the Chinese government or travel into China, a Chinese one.

    And here we have these people pretending a vaccine is likely to provide more immunity than an infection. What are the respective rates of re-infection?

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  40. Mr 123 wrote:

    But there’s a large swatch of the GOP that hates trans people and this has to be offensive to them.

    We don’t hate ‘trans people,’ we simply object to the idea that people should be coerced into going along with their mental illnesses.

    Businesses in New York City can be fined up to $250,000 if one of their employees ‘misgenders’ someone.

    The Dana in Kentucky (811f17)

  41. Dana in Kentucky,

    Do you think gay people have a mental illness?

    norcal (01e272)

  42. Do you think gay people have a mental illness?

    It may be psychiatry’s greatest triumph, norcal. They were all cured on December 15, 1973.

    But I do think that “transgenderism” is a fetishization of opposite sex stereotypes. We should not demonize them for it, but I cannot take it seriously.

    nk (1d9030)

  43. The LGBTQ+ folks are taking a hard pass because to them being a Democrat is more important than being one of them. It’s just another partisan front. Never mind that Trump was more open to LGBTQ+ rights than any president before him.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  44. but never won an Oscar

    Like Al Gore did. Ne3ver won the Nobel Peace prize, even though he ended the Cold War, but Al Gore AND Barack Obama did as a participation trophy.

    Those that can, do, those that can’t win participation trophies.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  45. Do you think gay people have a mental illness?

    Do you think none do?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  46. I expect Tom Steyer to run, and spend $100 million doing it.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  47. I don’t consider transgenderism a mental illness, just as homosexuality is not a mental illness.

    It’s not a giant leap to accept that sexual identity is no more a choice than same sex attraction.

    Jenner is still attracted to women. I don’t think he would choose something that would make it harder to get with a woman.

    norcal (01e272)

  48. Kevin,

    I have no doubt that gay people have as many mental illnesses as straight people, but I disagree that being gay is an illness.

    norcal (01e272)

  49. California recall Gavin newsome must get 50% plus 1 or he is out. Next highest vote total candidate then becomes governor. If multiple can dates run it makes it harder for newsome to get 50% plus 1.

    asset (b8ff4d)

  50. Correction to 25. I wrote, in part:

    I know someone whom I heard just got out of the intensive care unit.

    He might have gotten in Florida during Passover, but it will be counted as a New York case in any case.

    His brother just got out of quarantine (I had though the brother was actually sick)

    Actually his brother did have Covid. They gave him an infusion of antibodies. He was in Maimonides hospital for 12 to 14 hours. His brother also got an infusion. The reason he was admitted to the hospital was because he had borderline diabetes (which they must have detected with a blood test.
    The other brother has some heart disease but I guess that was of no matter)

    The brother who got out of the hospital is drained. His wife and daughter, aged about 14 or 15 did not get it. The brother who was not admitted is afraid of catching Covid, I suppose because they said you could get it twice – maybe he indeed could in the future because it wasn’t beaten back by his own imnune system.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  51. asset (b8ff4d) — 4/24/2021 @ 1:31 pm

    California recall Gavin newsome must get 50% plus 1 or he is out. Next highest vote total candidate then becomes governor. If multiple can dates run it makes it harder for newsome to get 50% plus 1.

    But polls show only 40% are for a recall, and no Democrat will run. It’s a binary choice, so if 40% say No to a recall, that means 60% will vote to say he can stay.

    It’s one thing to get petitions signed (and it was easier this year because the time period for gathering signatures was made longer because of the coronavirus) – it’s another thing to get a majority for a recall.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.1815 secs.