The Risks For Trump When He Leaves Office
[guest post by Dana]
There are a host of reasons why Trump doesn’t want to leave office, including this:
After Jan. 20, Trump, who has refused to concede and is fighting to hold onto his office, will be more vulnerable than ever to a pending grand jury investigation by the Manhattan district attorney into the president’s family business and its practices, as well as his taxes.
The two-year inquiry, the only known active criminal investigation of Trump, has been stalled since last fall when the president sued to block a subpoena for his tax returns and other records, a bitter dispute that for the second time is before the U.S. Supreme Court. A ruling is expected soon.
Trump has contended that the investigation by the district attorney, Cyrus R. Vance Jr., a Democrat, is a politically motivated fishing expedition. But if the Supreme Court rules that Vance is entitled to the records, and he uncovers possible crimes, Trump could face a reckoning with law enforcement — further inflaming political tensions and raising the startling specter of a criminal conviction, or even prison, for a former president.
“He’ll never have more protection from Vance than he has right now,” said Stephen I. Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas.
“Vance has been the wild card here,” Vladeck added. “And there is very little that even a new administration that wants to let bygones be bygones could do formally to stop him.”
Possible avenues of self-protection, um, action:
…Trump will issue pardons to his immediate family and whoever else he may feel a residual loyalty to.
…Trump will be told by his attorneys that he has no option to pardon himself. He probably has already been told this. The worst case for Trump, both legally and politically, is that he tries to pardon himself, creates a wave of national outrage, and his pardon of himself is overturned by the courts.
…Trump will resign from the presidency before his term officially ends, and he will be pardoned by Vice President Pence, when Pence becomes president.
A presidential pardon by Pence would not offer protection from cases originating in states, but those cases will be far more manageable if they are not sunk into a morass of federal cases that only a federal pardon can protect him from.
…
The biggest issue is that Trump must obtain a pardon for federal offenses, which he can only achieve if he resigns the presidency early and is granted a pardon by Pence. Without a federal pardon, it is almost guaranteed that Trump will spend much of the coming years mired in federal cases that could pose grave legal risks for him and create problems for executing any multibillion-dollar business deal.
It’s interesting, if not exhausting, watching this new phase of Trump’s Trumpian struggle: retain power, avoid prosecution, and keep ardent supporters fired-up enough that they will faithfully contribute to his new political PAC. Trapped in a complex web spun by self-indulgence and his own poor decision making. Sad!
–Dana
Hello.
Dana (6995e0) — 11/13/2020 @ 10:26 amThe legal problems are real enough, but keeping his worshippers angry is easy enough. If he stays both free and in the US, he has a fine career as a motivational speaker to the alt right and gropyer gangs, not to mention the anarchists like Bundy’s little clave.
john (cd2753) — 11/13/2020 @ 10:41 amJudging by his record in business ventures and his management of campaign funds, Mr. Trump has a reverse Midas touch. The problem facing him is one of maintaining a positive cash flow from his supporters. I’m guessing that this issue bothers him more than the prospect of conviction at the hands of Mr. Vance or of defaulting on his personal debt.
John B Boddie (d795fd) — 11/13/2020 @ 10:46 amIf only the Manhattan DA had gone after those who crashed the economy in 2008 with such vigor.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:06 amIt’s interesting, if not exhausting, watching this new phase of Trump’s Trumpian struggle…
Exhausting indeed; which just has to be why the idiot-elect’s staff have said he needs to take a few ‘days off’ after the stress and strain of the past week or so, have put a lid on any public appearances for a while and is holed up Wilmington.
Plenty of time for a transfusion or two. Hidin’Biden turns 78 years old in just 7 days.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:19 amDoes Trump have to resign?
What if he claims to undergo some medical procedure, makes a voluntary declaration under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, and Pence becomes Acting President for, say, an hour. Cheney did this in 2007 when Dubya had surgery (and did the responsible thing by passing his powers to the VP ahead of time).
While Acting President, Pence has all “powers and duties” of the office, presumably including the pardon power.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:28 amEverybody who approved a no-doc mortgage?
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:31 amStart at the top and work down, at least.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:38 amNetworks now calling NC for Trump and GA for Biden.
Kellyanne reacts:
306. Landslide. Blowout. Historic.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:39 amPelosi invents new word: ‘response-credit’ – for getting Plagiarist JoeyBee elected in face of losing seats in House; her actual area of responsibility.
What a tapdancer; yes, now Nancy is black.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:39 amWho “at the top” violated the law, and what law did they violate?
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:40 am@4 Are the financial crimes laws in NY any good? Or would it have needed to be federal?
Nic (896fdf) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:43 amI think part of his long-term strategy is: position himself as the victim of an ongoing political witch-hunt as evidenced by his election loss (blame Big Media, Democrats, and the Swamp). This will rile up his base of ardent supporters and keep them agitated and feeling victimized as well. Knowing that they are with him, he can appeal to them for money to fight all of the above entities and imagined enemies who obviously “stole” the election. Not just stole it from Trump but from the entire MAGA community as well. His new political PAC is primed and ready to receive their donations. This also allows Trump to keep his finger in GOP politics and influence the Party with his big PAC money. He will be neatly positioned up for 2024 run. God help us all.
Dana (6995e0) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:46 amIt’s interesting, if not exhausting, watching this new phase of Trump’s Trumpian struggle: retain power, avoid prosecution, and keep ardent supporters fired-up enough that they will faithfully contribute to his new political PAC. Trapped in a complex web spun by self-indulgence and his own poor decision making. Sad!
Actually, it’s hilarious how he still lives in so many heads. Why worry over what the idiot-elect will do; fuss over what the idiot-in-defeat has done. Hilariously entertaining.
He has a penthouse inside CNN and plays through on the golf course he’s had them build for him at MSNBC.
What. A. Showman.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:47 amWhat possible incentive does Pence have to pardon him in these scenarios?
kaf (0ff60d) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:50 amMAGA support when he runs for the presidency?
Dana (6995e0) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:54 am@13
tl;dr version of Dana: Trump has finally succeeded in setting up the equivalent of a charity whose sole purpose is to benefit himself.
FWIW, his niece thinks he won’t run again because he’ll never put himself in a position to lose like this again.
The man clearly has no interest in governance or tackling any problem that can’t be declared solved by fiat and/or gaslight. Immunity from prosecution is the only perk that he can’t buy (with his cultists’ money) as a private citizen.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 11:55 amWhy do I never remember to refresh the home page before I post?
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:06 pmLike the credit agencies issuing bogus scores on crap mortgages?
The crash cost the economy billions. We bailed them out with our tax money and let them walk scot-free. But Trump? How much did his tax schemes cost the economy?
If we are going to go after the billionaire fraudsters, I’m all for it. Start by forgoing the socialization of their losses and then prosecute them for fraud. Just don’t ignore the gorilla in the room for the orange-haired monkey.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:19 pmBigen staff has him under a lid; ‘needs some time off’ after stressful week [or is it really weak?] 😉
Trump to speak from White House at 1 PM EST.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:22 pmThe risk for never trumpers when he leaves office if they think they will be welcomed back into the republican party. If trump plans to run in 2024 his 72,000,000 voters will be with him. Republican elected officials will alienate them at their own political peril and they know it. Ted cruz, marco rubio and the other dwarfs who were planning to run in 2024 will have to stop sing ding dong the witch is dead!
asset (4b36a3) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:26 pmPrediction-Trump joins Glenn Greenwald in Brazil to avoid extradition, and he’ll dump Melania for a younger Brazilian trophy wife.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:26 pm@20-
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:28 pmWrong. it’s 1 pm PST.
If we’re going to prosecute ex-presidents, shouldn’t we go in chronological order?
The Prosecution of George W. Bush for Murder, by Vincent Bugliosi
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:34 pmhttps://www.amazon.com/dp/159315481X/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_fabc_k1URFbV2PGC5Y
@20. Correction- 4 PM EST.
___
@23. So entertaining to know you await his words.
What. A. Showman.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:36 pmDoesn’t sound very close to “the top” to me.
In my admittedly incomplete understanding, a big part of the problem was the historical data people used to assess risk suggested a lot of bad loans were safer than they turned out to be.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:42 pmThat’s a lot of if this then that to explain why Trump desperately wants to stay in the WH. Would 4 more years do anything other than buy him time?
frosty (f27e97) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:53 pm@21. He wo’t run agai– he’ll just dangle it out there to keep leasing space in Nevertrumper heads. But he does and will control the future direction, ‘character and color’ o/t party. Conservative ideologues are toast.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 12:58 pmThere’s no way Trump takes an action that makes him look subservient or make it appear that he’s admitting a mistake. He’s just not capable.
Time123 (36651d) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:04 pmThat’s why the temporary hand-off to Pence (without resigning) works so much better.
He can pretend to require some medical treatment (maybe bone spur removal?), and Pence can grant the pardon as a gesture of gratitude for his leadership, on behalf of the American people…
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:08 pmI’ve been saying for a couple weeks that Trump will resign, more out of spite and ego than needing a pardon. I’m also unsure if Pence WOULD pardon him. I thin Pence would be more concerned about getting the country’s house in order if he has ANY interest in 2024 (which a pardon would cripple).
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:09 pmEverybody who approved a no-doc mortgage?
Just watch The Big Short and you can make a quick list.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:11 pmMAGA support when he runs for the presidency?
Who? That’s like saying “Fascist support” in 1949 Italy.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:12 pmWho “at the top” violated the law, and what law did they violate?
There was a culture of ignorance. Due diligence on loans was minimal or absent. If a waitress was asking for a mortgage on her 5th house as the first two were selling in escrow, nobody checked what she told them. There was a race to the bottom in diligence. This happens at the bottom, but not without guidance from the top.
The bank is going to package and commoditize the loans and sell them to Fredo-mac.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:16 pmhe’ll dump Melania for a younger Brazilian trophy wife.
Too expensive. He’ll just leave Melania in NY and have all the Brazilian hookups he can afford.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:18 pmRight. But from what I understand, the entire industry was doing it, and it wasn’t a single decision but a vicious cycle of compromises with the devil, each leading to another that was slightly more dangerous. And anyone who didn’t get on board was left behind.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:30 pm‘There was a culture of ignorance. Due diligence on loans was minimal or absent.’
Shorter: Reaganomics.
“Greed is good.” – Gordon Gekko [Michael Douglas] ‘Wall Street’ 1987
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:41 pm@25-
Rip Murdock (bd1cdd) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:46 pmActually I wanted to sure to be doing something else at that time.
What’s preventing Trump from pardoning himself?
whembly (c30c83) — 11/13/2020 @ 1:50 pm@39-
As with most things Trump, it is has never been done before and it is untested in the courts. However, some argue that it would violate Article II, Section 3 that “he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed” and the provision of Article II, Section 1 that “executive power shall be vested in a President.”
Source
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/13/2020 @ 2:00 pmTrump will face new rules on Facebook and Twitter after he leaves office
……
…..[H]e’ll be playing by a new set of rules after President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated — as major social media companies will no longer give him special treatment on their platforms as a global leader.
Facebook will no longer exempt posts from Trump from its third-party fact-checkers. The company, which gives special status to speech from politicians on its platform, says former elected officials are eligible for fact checking — it will reduce the spread of posts on its service that its partners deem false.
Twitter confirmed that the company will no longer give Trump the special treatment it reserves for world leaders. The president has been allowed to post some tweets that violate the company’s rules because Twitter considers his speech in the “public interest.” But after he leaves office, violations of the rules could subject his account to suspensions or even bans.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/13/2020 @ 2:22 pm……
Trump should just move to Parler-where his main constituents are.
We have evidence of crimes in 2008; what we didn’t have was anyone willing to investigate and prosecute.
We have evidence of Trump having cheat on his taxes; but we do have someone willing to investigate and prosecute.
Trump’s tax evasion, if indeed criminal, is not close to the fraud and societal loss of the 2008 crisis.
I just want to know why the Manhattan goes after the little fish instead of the big ones.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/13/2020 @ 2:42 pmI got back into the Republican Party just fine, risk-free. Changing my registration was as easy as checking a box on a form.
As for being WELCOMED back, I’m not worried. You need my money and my vote more than I need your Donald.
Demosthenes (d7fc81) — 11/13/2020 @ 2:55 pmI refuse to believe ANY Brazilian woman has THAT little taste. A combover-sporting, mango-skinned, scandal-ridden, financially dubious ex-president in his mid-seventies? Yikes.
Besides, even if I’m wrong, why would they need to settle for the Yankee import? There are probably half a dozen men, at least, who fit that general description in Rio alone.
Demosthenes (d7fc81) — 11/13/2020 @ 3:02 pmas major social media companies will no longer give him special treatment on their platforms as a global leader.
LOL
I didn’t know Antifa’s special treatment was because they are some kind of global leader.
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/13/2020 @ 3:41 pmHere’s what one noted capitalist robber baron and Wall Street apologist had to say on the matter:
The Securities and Exchange Commission has a summary of “Enforcement Actions Addressing Misconduct That Led To or Arose From the Financial Crisis”
It was last updated in October 2016.
Entities and Individuals Charged: 204
CEOs, CFOs, and Other Senior Corporate Officers Charged: 93
Number of Individuals Who Have Received Officer and Director Bars, Industry Bars, or Commission Suspensions: 54
This law review article claims:
The law review article cites analyses that banks paid out fines somewhere around $164 billion or in excess of $204 billion, depending on what is counted.
Another infamous capitalist running dog had this to say:
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 4:04 pmActually I wanted to sure to be doing something else at that time.
Rest easy. Joe said so: “No miracle is coming.”
Oh. Wait. It has.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 4:38 pmThere are all sorts of risks:
Leigh Ann Caldwell
@LACaldwellDC
House Dem and GOP leaders are holding respective dinners for new members.
harkin (8fadc8) — 11/13/2020 @ 5:01 pm.
@SpeakerPelosi told me it’s safe. “It’s very spaced,” she said and there is enhanced ventilation and the Capitol physician signed off.
__
Putin will give him an apartment in Moscow, but as is the KGB’s practice with all defectors he will not be allowed to travel outside Moscow and its near environs.
nk (1d9030) — 11/13/2020 @ 5:53 pmDCSCA did the right thing by defecting to San Diego.
nk (1d9030) — 11/13/2020 @ 5:58 pm@50. Loose lips sink ships…comrade. 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 7:04 pmAnd anyone who didn’t get on board was left behind.
The people at the top were packaging the loans for the suckers, knowing that they were fraudulently labeling them as high quality when there was almost zero value in some of the mortgages. They knew what they were doing, and they had done it before (e.g. 1990-1) on a smaller scale, and gotten away with it.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/13/2020 @ 7:05 pmThere are probably half a dozen men, at least, who fit that general description in Rio alone.
Yes, but do they have money? I doubt that any of Donald’s “dates”, ever, has looked much past the money.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/13/2020 @ 7:07 pmThe risk for never trumpers when he leaves office if they think they will be welcomed back into the republican party.
By the time we go back to the GOP, the morons who picked Trump will have gone back to watching wrestling.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/13/2020 @ 7:09 pm@52. Without formal and defensible protection as detailed in the Glass-Steagall Act, investment companies felt at liberty to move toward unscrupulous investment tactics that had occurred prior to 2009 involving sub-prime mortgages.
Guess who voted to repeal Glass-Steagall: Joe Biden.
You bought him; you own him.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 7:11 pmGlass-Steagall’s repeal had NOTHING to do with what happened in 2008.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/13/2020 @ 7:14 pmBut you know that, having been told 100 times by now.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/13/2020 @ 7:15 pmCNBC, others misrepresent Trump’s remarks on COVID-19 vaccine distribution in New York
True. Democrats and their media lapdogs did misrepresent what Trump said about the vaccine and New York today. Very obviously intentionally misrepresented.
On my part, I consider it a sign of my own personal recovery that both my distaste for Democrats and their media lapdogs and my sense of justice even when it comes to Trump have been rekindled.
nk (1d9030) — 11/13/2020 @ 7:40 pmA Trump resignation so that Pence can pardon him was my scenario last week. I think it still holds up because it’ll at least keep the federal prosecutors away and he can skip Inauguration Day to avoid the humiliation of facing the schmuck he lost to.
Here’s my other hot take: Trump’s resorts, hotels and office buildings have taken a serious financial hit. Because he manages his properties in-house, I’m guessing they’re not run particularly well and he’s bleeding cash flow, lots of it. Bottom line, he may have a decent net worth of $2 billion and change, but he’s cash poor.
Paul Montagu (ff5eb7) — 11/13/2020 @ 7:40 pmUnlike previous presidents, he’s not going to make a ton of money on speaking engagements and book deals. His presidential library may look like this, all tuned to FoxNews or OAN, depending on his whims of the day, and no one will pay money to go there when they can go to Best Buy.
His proposed Trump Channel will go the way of Trump Airlines, IMO. In other words, unless he works a deal as the “talent” on a show like The Apprentice, he won’t be able to monetize his ex-presidency like Obama or GW Bush or the Clintons.
Finally, all of his deranged immoral behavior in the White House will eventually come out, only further tarnishing his name. The money from his naming rights will diminish. With his financials prospects so bleak, his only option is to try and chump the GOP once again and be the 2024 nominee. That, or work a cushy real estate deal with his favorite dictators. Melania will have nothing to do with his political ambitions and financial failures and will probably bail out of that nightmare of a marriage.
I hope my party is smarter than giving him a 2nd chance, but I’m not optimistic. He deserves to die in a prison cell for the havoc he caused, but he’s the kind of douchebag who will probably land on his feet.
@58 I watched the speech, but turned off after and haven’t seen any analysis of it (I haven’t read your link yet either). So, basically, my opinion hasn’t been affected by partisan spin. My interpretation of what he said was basically that New York had been a dick to him about the vaccine, so he was going to be a dick back. Gee, too bad you wouldn’t trust me about the vaccine, maybe you don’t get the vaccine until after everyone else. Do I think he mean that he wasn’t going to give the vaccine to NY? No, he often is a jerk about something but doesn’t do anything else about it, but he was being a jerk about it and using the issue to take multiple shots at NY. He was bullying them.
Nic (896fdf) — 11/13/2020 @ 8:16 pm56.Glass-Steagall’s repeal had NOTHING to do with what happened in 2008.
=sigh=
Some critics, such as Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, have long seen the changes to Glass-Steagall as a major factor in the 2008 crash.-npr.org
Some economists point to the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act as a key factor leading to the housing market bubble and subsequent Great Recession, the financial crisis of 2007-2008. – history.com
It is axomatic; Nixon apologists are idiots.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 8:18 pmI don’t know what you mean by “the people at the top”.
The people creating the demand for and bundling irresponsible mortgages were not CEOs of Wall St firms. They were only one level in the food chain above the people actually writing (and selling them) the bad loans.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 9:41 pmGlass-Steaglall allowed investment firms to buy major banks that were under water. They helped stave off the liquidity crisis and had little to do with precipitating it.
Paul Montagu (4db3fd) — 11/13/2020 @ 9:48 pmCharles Koch Says His Partisanship Was a Mistake
What a mess, indeed.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/13/2020 @ 9:56 pm@63. Except it did.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/13/2020 @ 10:07 pmExcept it didn’t.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 11/14/2020 @ 7:27 amAll Trump has to do is announce he’s running for re-election in 2024 before he leaves office. Everybody knows you can’t investigate a candidate for office, that’s an impeachable offense.
Jerryskids (999ce8) — 11/14/2020 @ 9:22 am