Election Predictions: Play at Your Own Risk (Also: Election Open Thread)
[guest post by JVW]
Election Day is upon us; time to make your predictions.
1. Final tally in the House
2. Final tally in the Senate
3. Biggest Congressional upset
4. Congressional race that is expected to be close but won’t be
5. Brightest star emerging from this election
6. Career that is pretty much over after this election
7. Final electoral college tally
8. Earliest date that the winner of the Presidential contest will be accurately declared and by whom
Feel free to add any other bold or mundane predictions along with the picks to these questions. Remember that my picks are nearly always wrong.
– JVW
UPDATE BY PATTERICO: I’ll lay down my marker. I think Biden takes Texas and the result is announced tonight. Nothing else will matter after that. Dems gain seats in the House and take the Senate.
Whatever happens, your vote is your choice. I might criticize someone’s reasons for voting a certain way, but I will never criticize the simple fact that you voted for person x, y, or z. Go in peace. Whatever happens happens.
If you’re in Los Angeles, vote for Jackie Lacey. It will probably be your most consequential vote.
UPDATE x2: I also predict a landslide for Biden, and that Trump will fight it — and that in coming days and weeks, there will be a test of loyalty: are you willing to loudly declare that Donald Trump was defrauded out of the presidency?
UPDATE x3 FROM PATTERICO: Obviously, consider this your Election Open Thread.
I predict that there will be tremendous cash prizes for the people whose predictions come closest to the actual outcome.
Paid for by Mexico!
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:31 am1. Dems 235-200
2. 50-50 tie: Dems pick up seats in CO, AZ, ME, and NC. Republicans hold MT, IA, and GA and pick up AL.
3. Someone in the House will beat an incumbent.
4. Lindsey Graham will win by 8 or 10 points in South Carolina.
5. Maybe Sara Gideon of Maine, or maybe Joni Ernst wins newfound respect.
6. Martha McSally, losing two Senate races in two years.
7. 279-259 with the winner being whoever wins Pennsylvania
8. November 12, after the Veteran’s Day holiday, with the AP breaking the story.
None of that is likely correct.
JVW (ee64e4) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:32 amwhatever happens my oath to my family never expires
mg (8cbc69) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:43 amDems keep the house. Dems take the Senate by 2. Trump wins. Dems impeach Trump, Pence becomes President. Boom.
Note: I don’t think that will happen. I do think Biden will win, but if he does and the democrats take the Senate, Lord help us all.
Pray for America like you have never prayed before.
ah-non-ee-mouse (690acb) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:45 amJust finished voting. A brisk morning but the line moved quickly. Hope we can stop the socialism before it starts. I’ve seen Venezuela. No need to recreate a workers paradise here.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:03 amRevelation, 19:17-21
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:05 amI predict:
1. A large undervote on the downballot. People will not linger to pick three out of twelve Water Reclamation District Commissioners, or fill in the blank for 47 judges running unopposed. They’ll vote for the top of the ticket and get out.
2. Twelve little old Jewish ladies in Broward County joining a lawsuit for a recount on the basis that Covid had them so scared and they were in such a hurry to get out that they voted for Jo Jorgensen instead of Joe Biden by accident.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:37 amI’m hoping:
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:55 am1. Trump gets no swing state.
2. Biden flips Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina.
3. The popular vote is split 60%-40% for Biden.
4. The Democrats flip all eight marginal Republican seats for a net gain of seven.
5. Too much to hope for that McConnell loses, but why not?
6. The South wakes up and takes its Democratic Party back from the bi-coastals, hippies, and thugs, and sends the carpetbaggers back to their country clubs.
My son-in-law, a legal immigrant from Russia (where he was raised in the USSR and under communist rule), and now a US citizen, voted for Trump and would tell anyone that listened that they didn’t want to go down the rosy path of socialism/communism.
Marci (405d43) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:42 amSome predictions for the future…..
S.E. Cupp
@secupp
It took a lot to get me here. It took Trump, and 4 years of corruption, incompetence, division, immorality, greed, and a dissembling of the democratic ideals I believe in. Tomorrow, I’m a Republican for @JoeBiden, because I believe we need to make America GOOD again. #vote
__ _
Ben McDonald
@Bmac0507
That sweet cash helped
__ _
Chris Jackson
@cj12jackson
·
Congrats, I hope a future which includes a packed Supreme Court, additional Democrat Senators, one-party rule , single-payer healthcare, lack of school choice, high taxes and skyrocketing energy prices helps you sleep at night. A feel-good principled stance for a “Republican.”
__ _
nala doowrae
@doowrae
·
If there is a landslide Biden win, do you think tRump’s supporters (the ones still attending his rallies) will self reflect like you and so many others have done? Or will they dig in harder?
__ _
TJ Haidys
@HaidysTJ
·
Nope they will pick themselves up and head off to work to pay for all the entitlements that will follow, just like with Obama.
__ _
djdiamond
harkin (7fb4c9) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:02 am@lakjerdj
·
“10% for the big guy”
__
I predicted that Trump would go down in flames shortly after his Golden Escalator ride, after saying his racist spiel about Mexicans. After My being so inutterably wrong, I vowed that I would not make political predictions. I’ll just say that I like Biden’s chances, and I wish the GOP holds the Senate, although I’m not optimistic.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:23 amFinal Ratings for the 2020 Election (Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
Key Points-
— Our final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217.
— Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50-48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.
— We have Democrats netting 10 seats in the House.
— The only governorship we have flipping is Montana, which would be a gain for Republicans.
Rip Murdock (741b4a) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:39 am……..
1. Final tally in the House Democrats retains, but loses seats at 220-215.
whembly (2e3fb6) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:41 am2. Final tally in the Senate GOP retains with 52-48 advantage.
3. Biggest Congressional upset Kim Klacik for House and John James for Senate.
4. Congressional race that is expected to be close but won’t be John James for Senate.
5. Brightest star emerging from this election Kim Klacik for House.
6. Career that is pretty much over after this election Most of pollsters.
7. Final electoral college tally 318 Trump to 220 Biden (Incubant elections is a thing)
8. Earliest date that the winner of the Presidential contest will be accurately declared and by whom 2am eastern for Trump (especially if EC is over 300).
House Dems 233-202
Senate tie b/c Illinois will own-goal with the R winning Durbins seat in a 3 way race with a black spoiler.
Upset – IL 3 to the Rs (former Lipinski seat)
Van Drew need not worry.
Warnock as Dem SNR will not need a runoff because he will have “margin” that Ossoff doesnt have due to largely black Trump-Warnock Voters. Ernst as midwest MILF competition to Noem.
The Carolinas wing of the R party for underperformance (Graham ekes by), including Haley.
Trump 290, gains MN, loses NC and AZ. November 9 after shenanigans in PA and MI.
urbanleftbehind (e52fec) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:55 am1. house is a tie
mg (8cbc69) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:03 am2. senate rinos gain 2
3. dude from the loon star state
4. Ernst
5 .Burgess Owens
6. miss Lindsey
7. Trump over 320
8. 2 am
My guess at the map (335-203)
The blue wall returns and the Sun Belt splits.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Biden won Georgia or Trump won Florida.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:08 amDixville Notch Sweep for Biden as He Becomes First Candidate since Nixon to Win All Votes in N.H. Township
Deezy-eska hardest hit!
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:20 am. Final tally in the House – About 265-170 Dems becase many races are no contest
2. Final tally in the Senate 50-50
3. Biggest Congressional upset someplace unknown in the House. A
Also John James beats Gary Peters in Michigan, but we won’t find out till mid-November Martha McSally losing is expected
4. Congressional race that is expected to be close but won’t be – don’t know
5. Brightest star emerging from this election ??
6. Career that is pretty much over after this election Gail Collins?
7. Final electoral college tally Maybe 280 to 258
8. Earliest date that the winner of the Presidential contest will be accurately declared and by whom
Everyone will wait for the Associated Press. They’ll wait.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:28 amGenerally, in most elections, my vote is cast not so much for the person but in the direction of what I think will lead to more political choices in the future. I don;t usually do that for president, though/.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:30 am12. Larry Sabato has Trump winning Florida but losing Georgia. A not very likely combination.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:36 amHeh! The gaslighting never stops. The orders have gone out: “Say Trump wins and the GOP keeps the Senate! It’s important to the lawsuits! It’s important to the narrative! It’s important to President Trump!”
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:40 amthe fake polls are obviously biased mr nk
in 2016 president donald was behind because they undercounted stupid people
now they give stupid people more weight in their polls and president donald is still behind
its so unfair
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:50 amYou mean when Obama won, after Trump’s effort to convince goofy people he was secretly born in Africa?
If there was some secret incumbency benefit it would be reflected in polling. But dictators always do that, announce some huge win on election day. that’s so the true believers get angry if the real results are announced. I’ve seen a lot of this. People claiming it is impossible for Biden to win if he doesn’t cheat, talk about how the election day vote itself proves all the polls were wrong. And talks about how all unrest will just be the left (hoping to get some fringe right to avenge this).
Don’t be used, Trump fans. Vote your conscience, if you really think Biden is Venezuelan socialism. When you lose that means you vote your conscience in two years. Don’t go ramming your truck into people when you get the bad news.
I predict a historic landslide that we won’t fully understand until mid-november, with the left blowing their credibility by announcing they won tonight, and Trump also announcing he won. People in the administration will be fired for trying to tell the truth about the election, and we will get at least two lame books about it.
House and Senate will go team D. 240 Dem house, 52 Dem Senate. Biggest upset will be John Cornyn.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:01 amUPDATE BY PATTERICO: I’ll lay down my marker. I think Biden takes Texas and the result is announced tonight. Nothing else will matter after that. Dems gain seats in the House and take the Senate.
Whatever happens, your vote is your choice. I might criticize someone’s reasons for voting a certain way, but I will never criticize the simple fact that you voted for person x, y, or z. Go in peace. Whatever happens happens.
If you’re in Los Angeles, vote for Jackie Lacey. It will probably be your most consequential vote.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:24 amUPDATE x2: I also predict a landslide for Biden, and that Trump will fight it — and that in coming days and weeks, there will be a test of loyalty: are you willing to loudly declare that Donald Trump was defrauded out of the presidency?
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:26 amThe Dow Jones Industrial Average is cautiously optimist that Biden will win. It’s gone up over 650 points since opening. They like stability in that place.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:28 amChanneling my inner harkin:
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:37 amIf Biden wins Texas, it won’t be because Texans have moved left. It will be because Texans don’t like Trump.
DRJ (aede82) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:42 amTrump threatens violence if all legally cast votes are counted in PA
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:44 amUnless it’s a solid landslide, either way and especially in battleground states, both Trump and Biden will challenge the win. This especially as both sides have a multitude of lawyers lined up and ready to jump in at a moment’s notice.
Dana (6995e0) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:46 amIdle thought: Will Melania stay in Florida this week if Trump loses?
DRJ (aede82) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:48 amThis is interesting from Dave’s link:
You would think he would be touting his accomplishments while simultaneously ticking through the list of goals set for his next term. But we don’t hear much about that. It seems that there are only vague generalities with a lot of looking back.
Dana (6995e0) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:55 amIt would be pretty surprising if Biden wins the popular vote by less than 5%.
Yes, presidential elections are not decided by the popular vote, but Trump claiming he’s won if Biden is well above 50% will not be very plausible unless the relevant battlegrounds have all returns in.
There might be a brief period early in evening when Trump is ahead in the popular vote (on election night in 2012, when the election was called for Obama with Romney temporarily leading in the popular vote, Donald Trump went on Twitter and called for violent overthrow of the government…), but Biden is virtually certain to get ahead at some point, with the lead increasing as CA mail ballots are tabulated.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:58 amI predict that if Biden wins, there will be no God anymore. That’s what Trump says, and he always Tells It Like It Is.
Radegunda (20775b) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:00 am17. You do realize Bug Tussle, NH went for President Hillary Clinton, too, doncha, Davey.
_____
Poor Davey…the dying Limbaugh pinned the tail on the donkeys of ‘Conservatives for Biden’ this morning on Fox w/ sharp tongued spike of irrelevancy.
Glorious.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:10 amYes, Radegunda!
Biden is both a risible mental basket case who doesn’t even know he’s alive AND a mortal threat to Almighty God.
Five years of Pavlovian conditioning have prepared Trump’s cultists to fervently believe both claims simultaneously, and without question.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:13 amPrediction stands: Trump squeaks out an up to 3% win or it’s a President Harris in 24 months. Lest you forget, in just 17 days, Plagiarist JoeyBee turns 78 years old..
Who’s quarterbacking for the Philadelphia Blue Hens this weekend, Joe?
… and Putin smiled.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:14 amdear mr president vladimir
please send better bots
k thx
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:23 amHopes and dreams
And all that seems
Come crashing down to reality
It’s impossible to predict outcomes in this election. Tens of millions of mail-in ballots to count. That will take weeks. We won’t know the results until late November. However, every state must report its vote tallies before or on December 8. The electoral college will convene on December 14. The newly elected Congress will certify the electoral votes on January 6. Only then will we know the outcome.
So I’m not going to make predictions, only expectations. I think the Democrats will hold the House, probably gain a couple of seats. The Senate is a toss up. The Democrats may win a couple of seats and flip the Senate. I don’t know, because I’m just guessing. As to the Presidency, I think Biden will win the popular vote by a wide margin. There still is a very narrow path for Trump to win the electoral college though.
I expect when it’s dark and it’s done, the Democrats will take the White House, increase their majority in the House, and regain the Senate. Then it will be on to the 2022 midterm elections.
I don’t know, and I don’t care. I’m just going to do my civic duty and vote. In fact, I’m just about to leave and go to the polling place. I will be voting against every Republican, for the first time in my life. I will be voting Democratic where I must and Libertarian where I can.
I’m once bitten, twice shy, babe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZG5acM9CkM&list=RDTZG5acM9CkM&start_radio=1
The Republican party is dead to me. I’ll tolerate a couple of years of Democratic rule. It’s not going to affect my very much anyway. But I will not tolerate lying and self-dealing. Which is all I’ve gotten from the Republicans I voted for. They promised limited government, lower taxation, fiscal responsibility, and reasonable regulations. We got none of that. What we got was exploding deficit spending and mounting national debt.
What we did not get was responsible governance, because of Trump. So, I’ll be leaving now to go to the polling place and vote.
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:31 am1. Final tally in the House- Pick any number over 235– Ds.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:35 am2. Final tally in the Senate- 52 D, 48 R.
3. Biggest Congressional upset- McConnell loses
4. Congressional race that is expected to be close but won’t be- McConnell
5. Brightest star emerging from this election- Mark Kelly
6. Career that is pretty much over after this election- Will/Goldberg/French, all ‘Lincoln Project’ associates and, of course, Joe Biden
7. Final electoral college tally- The Donald squeaks by w/275.
8. Earliest date that the winner of the Presidential contest will be accurately declared and by whom- January, 2021, when EC tallies are certified and reported to Congress…. by VP Pence?!
There should be an over/under for this: If Trump loses (as called by three networks), how many days it will take him to concede. If I were a predicting kinda guy, I’d say “never”.
Paul Montagu (b55514) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:40 amTexas has been trending toward ‘Blue’ for several cycles now but JoeyBee won’t tip it. It’ll stay re– or purple. Changing demographics will eventually do it, probably next cycle or the one after. But the data is there. Maybe they should ask President Trump to build a wall to the North, West an East. 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:41 amPlease god Pat O’Brien for Cook County sA.
urbanleftbehind (e52fec) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:44 amToo short, Paul. I want points on where he will establish his government in exile.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:45 amDixville Notch Sweep for Biden as He Becomes First Candidate since Nixon to Win All Votes in N.H. Township
With the media playing up some “life-long Republican” who voted for Biden. Not only is this a bit heavy-handed by the press, but they seem actually clueless about the LLR meme over the years.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:46 amThey never mention the nearby hamlet of Dickville Naught which gave all 6 of their their votes to Trump.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:48 amDoes marriage to Melania get him a Slovenian green card? In most places he could claim citizenship through his mother or his grandfather, but British citizenship rules are complicated and Bavaria is not a country anymore.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:52 am@41: Dispatches from a worse future:
November 15 (AP): Oklahoma declared for Trump today, the 16th state to vow succession if the “crooked deep-state so-called election” is not invalidated. Fouteen non-citizens found to have voted in OK were hanged in front of the state capitol shortly after this announcement was made.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:54 amBritish citizenship rules are complicated and Bavaria is not a country anymore.
Either of those would qualify him for Argentina. Especially if he offered a donation to the Peronists.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:55 am@41. Golly…how DID Americans get their elections ‘called’ before there were radio and television networks?! By American Telegraph Company telegrapher Beauregarde Hamilton ‘Hammy’ Rove or Western Union’s Phineas Jasper Cronkite? 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:55 amOr maybe Brazil.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:57 amMorning in America…
Trump speaks at RNC Annex in Arlington, VA: “So many young, beautiful people here.”
Biden speaks in Scranton, PA: “I grew up here and left when I was in the fourth grade.”
Idiot.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:09 amMy pointless and wrong conjecture: On 11/4, all the arrests that Durham was supposed to be working on come down. They had to be after the election so as not to affect it, you see. DOJ policy uber alles.
Ingot9455 (f12c00) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:11 amWould think you would have created an Election Day open thread by now.
I’m sure it will not lack for content.
harkin (7fb4c9) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:20 am_
. Final tally in the House: D: 225 R: 210 (R gain of 13, due to untenable wins in 2018)
2. Final tally in the Senate: 50-50
3. Biggest Congressional upset: Young Kim in CA-39
4. Congressional race that is expected to be close but won’t be: CA-21
5. Brightest star emerging from this election: The Death Star
6. Career that is pretty much over after this election: anyone named Trump
7. Final electoral college tally: 291-247, with Biden taking PA and AZ.
8. Earliest date that the winner of the Presidential contest will be accurately declared and by whom:
Not sure I can answer this as it allows for total BS claims to be later proven right. In the end, it comes down to which battleground state gets its act together first. I see PA, NV and AZ coming in last and think that NV+AZ will put Biden over the top at 271. So call it Thursday.
Of course, if it isn’t a close election at all, then we’ll know when Trump loses any of FL, NC, OH, GA or TX, any one of which puts it out of reach. That will require some guts in assuming that MI, WI etc aren’t going to have upsets.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:21 amPrediction: If Trump loses (90%) and if the D’s control the Senate (if only with Harris), there will be some serious primary action for 2022, where the direction of the GOP will be settled.
Suggestion: If you want the GOP to return to former values, or you want to supplant it with something else in your state (e.g. CA), get down to the county meetings and make yourself heard. Take your thickest skin with you.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:26 amI also predict that the Democrats, who have never accepted the 2016 election, will call for all Americans to accept the 2020 results and get behind our leader.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:29 amUnbookmarking this site. If you want the democrats to take the house, senate and presidency, you are not a Republican, no matter what you say. The democrats are the party of authoritarianism, suppression of conservative thought and huge government. This is how you get more AOC. Does Trump have moral failings? Obviously he does, but so does Biden. The difference is that Trump’s policies have been good and Biden’s will be awful.
Jimpithecus (6a113b) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:29 amOne of the things that might make this election go strange is the massive turnout enabled by mailed ballots. With all the active prodding, it is probably harder NOT to vote than to vote.
We may get 30 million more votes cast in 2020 than 2016 and there is really no way to judge where these previously disaffected voters will line up. Trump seemed to get their vote last time, but the change in votes 2012-2016 was minimal. This will be different, and that plays hell with models.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:44 amThe difference is that Trump’s policies have been good and Biden’s will be awful.
If Trump was capable of carrying out his policies, instead of actively making them toxic, you’d have a point. As it is, Trump is the best advocate for not doing what Trump advocates.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:46 amI don’t need a reader who can’t tell the difference between a prediction and a hope. Bye now.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:46 amTrump is the idiot in your side’s delegation, sinking your position with each and every word, and insisting on filibustering to do it.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:47 amI said the other day I have decided I would prefer Republicans hold the Senate to minimize Biden’s chances for mischief. As a guy who supposedly had the site bookmarked I am shocked, shocked that you missed that!
Many of Trump’s policies are garbage by the way. Tariffs, debt, precipitous military withdrawals without planning, and I could go on.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:50 amI don’t need a reader who can’t tell the difference between a prediction and a hope.
I can. But I’ll be clear: I hope
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:52 amBiden winsTrump loses. Trump is an existential danger in the Presidency. The Sorcerer’s Apprentice, irresponsible and dangerous with the power he’s given.I predict you will be sorely disappointed.
Dr What? (82840a) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:58 amI guess Mr. Bookmark missed the episode where many of us left the Republican party when it became the Monster Raving Loony Trump party.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:59 amTrump is an existential danger in the Presidency
Nah. His check to me cleared.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:02 amPonder the ‘mischief’ of a President Harris.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:04 amTrump Spent His Final “Fox & Friends” Appearance Before The Election Criticizing Everyone, Including Fox News
…….
The president has spent much of the past week insisting that a winner of the election be declared on Tuesday night, despite the likelihood that vote-counting could go on for days, and sowing mistrust about the reliability of the vote count. When host Steve Doocy said some have speculated Trump may “declare victory if the early numbers favor you” and asked the president when he would declare himself the winner, he was vague.
“When there is victory,” Trump said, sounding hoarse after a whirlwind schedule of non–socially distant rallies with supporters in the final days of the campaign. “If there is victory, I think we will have victory. I think the polls are, you know, suppression polls. And I think we will have victory. But only when there is victory. You know, there is no reason to play games. And I think we will have victory.”
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:09 am……
Trump complained that Fox was giving Biden too much airtime, saying “in the old days they wouldn’t put on Sleepy Joe every time he had opened his mouth. They had other networks for that, frankly.” Host Brian Kilmeade responded, saying that the network tries to “show both sides.”
……
That’s a tough one, nk, because Alex Jones and Q will have a say.
Paul Montagu (b55514) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:14 amOne House race that may go red: NM-2. This is a rematch of 2018, which was a nail-biter. Since then, the new Dem Congresswoman (Torres Small) has signed on to the New Green Deal.
For a state with substantial employment in fracking, and 1/3rd of the state budget from oil and gas fees, this is an issue and has been hammered (and I mean hammered) home in the media. To the point where we have Torres Small running ads with her on an oil rig (and awkwardly shooting a rifle), and the challenger Harrell running Small’s ads in mockery.
It is a traditionally GOP district that went blue in 2018 and the Dems hold only so long as Trump matters.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:16 amTrump Spent His Final “Fox & Friends” Appearance Before The Election Criticizing Everyone, Including Fox News
Four fingers pointing back.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:17 amScoop: Generals privately brief news anchors, promise no military role in election
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley held an off-the-record video call with top generals and network anchors this weekend to tamp down speculation about potential military involvement in the presidential election, two people familiar with the call tell Axios.
…..
Two other four-star generals joined Milley on the call: commander of the U.S. Cyber Command Paul Nakasone and National Guard chief Daniel Hokanson.
ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, CBS’ Norah O’Donnell, NBC’s Lester Holt, CNN’s Jim Sciutto and Fox’s Martha MacCallum participated, per one of the sources.
The generals talked about military efforts to secure key infrastructure against cyberattacks.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:18 amThey confirmed that foreign actors have tried to influence this election, but said none appears positioned to change votes.
……..
“This is called the Republican party, it’s not called the Conservative party.”
– Donald Trump (May 8, 2016)
Trump is right. It has never really been a Conservative PARTY. It had an ascendant conservative wing that refused to share and overstayed its welcome.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:18 amSharing is socialism.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:26 amOne thing that fascinates me: On the one hand, Trump defenders like to say that “Donald Trump is the only thing standing between us and socialism.” On the other hand, you have Trump defenders scorning libertarians, claiming that the old GOP was too tightly controlled by those evil libertarians, saying that the new improved GOP is “socially conservative, economically liberal,’ i.e. socialist-lite, and cheering when Trump boasts about the huuuuge subsidies he’s sending to farmers bankrupted by his tariff policy and says they’re now better off than when their farms were profitable.
Radegunda (20775b) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:34 amAnother core Trumpist doctrine is: Don’t you dare make any changes to entitlements for the sake of making the programs sustainable
Radegunda (20775b) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:37 amNow here is an election prediction:
British gambler bets $5 million on Trump in biggest-ever political wager
…..
The former banker used private bookmakers registered on the Caribbean island of Curacao for the bet at odds of 37/20 — meaning he could get a $15 million payout, sources told the Sun.
The mystery gambler confidently went all-in after consulting with “Trump camp insiders,” according to the report.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:38 am……
“Trump camp insiders”- now there is a reliable source. What did the bettor think they were going to say-we’re going to lose?
New Mexico is a weird state. High Hispanic population but not immigrants — many families were here before the Mexican War. There are no crowds of day workers outside Home Depot. There are a few urban centers, but there are also a lot of folks living in small isolated communities. Quite a few retirees, as it has some of the same attractions as FL or AZ, but neither the heat or humidity.
Plus a lot of reservation and federal land (e.g. White Sands). Most of the state is closed off for one reason or other. Covid has hit folks hard economically. Biden will win here by double digits, in a state that W took in 2004 and nearly took in 2000. It really helps not to be anti-Hispanic in NM.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:39 am@76:
I really can’t even find a place to start on all those false assertions you try to put in my mouth.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:41 amAlso on the ballot: The future of the Trump political dynasty
Defeating Trump can kill two birds with one stone.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:45 am#80 –Where did I claim that YOU were saying such things?
Radegunda (20775b) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:46 amI was only using one phrase as a jumping-off point to note the contradictions in the Trumpist redefitions of “conservative.”
Why would you assume she was attributing any of that to you?
I certainly didn’t read it that way.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:46 amTo begin with “conservative” and “Socialist” are only two directions of many, and “Libertarian” (which hasn’t been true of the GOP since, well, ever) is just a minor faction within the GOP more interested in being right than coherent.
In fact, “conservative” means almost nothing. In today’s world a New Deal Democrat is conservative. Scoop Jackson or JFK would be conservative today. Libertarian has come to simply mean “anti-government except those parts I like.” Ron Paul thinks government should stay out of many things, but wants an international panel setting (other) countries’ exchange rates and pegging each nation’s currency to a favored (but obsolete) commodity (gold).
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:47 amI certainly didn’t read it that way.
Well, there’s the quoteback, which she is attacking.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:48 amSharing is socialism.
So, Davey… be a conservative…. and keep your opinions to yourself! 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:52 amafter president donald also known as trump the possibilities for failmerica are limitless mr rip
now that we’ve broken through the glass floor with a porn model for third lady why not an aspiring stripper for president
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:52 amIts election day! Biden tells democrats to vote early and often and you dead people in chicago you go out and vote for me too!
asset (d54533) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:54 amI was only using one phrase as a jumping-off point to note the contradictions in the Trumpist redefitions of “conservative.”
OK. Accepted. Sorry if I misread.
I do disagree with the premise that libertarians had a thing to do with the old GOP. Free-market absolutists, perhaps, but social conservatives too, and they are NOT libertarian. The coalition held because they each let the other operate. Trump has tried to co-opt the social conservatives while dumping the free-marketers and it hasn’t worked. This may be because the social conservatives had as many opponents within the party as the free-marketers and Trump forced them to pick sides.
Those of us who wanted a socially-accepting fiscally conservative party were dismayed by all these extremes. Trump blew up the right thing, but he replaced it with worse.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:56 amNah. This is about party power and who wags the dog. The folks on the outs now- an long overdue BTW- know who they are. Cooler heads stay in the party minority and work the change from within. A second term for Trump win will likely give conservatives a shot at one or two more SCOTUS seats and a Righty court for the next 40 years. A President Harris will return the court to balance when she has to fill seats.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:57 amAs the Democrats move (temporarily) to Socialist-Lite, I would hope the GOP moves to Libertarian-Lite. Neither can afford to ignore the center; when you do that you get Trumped.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:59 amreturn the court to balance
Just like the Democrats did in the 60’s and 70’s when they had run the table on judges? Somehow it was OK back then to have activist courts pushing policy.
This goes back and forth over the years. A pendulum, not a balance.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:02 pm@88. He may be ‘talking to the dead’ for more down to earth reasons. Did you see his rally in my beloved Pgh., last night? Watched it all on CSPAN. Forget your politics. He’s not a physically well individual. Shouting, at times incoherent, disoriented on occasion as well and could barely walk off the stage. The ‘old man shuffle.’ Almost a limp. Forget your politics. The man is just too old for the gig. It’s just way too sad to see someone aging so poorly.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:04 pm67.
That was bipartisan.
also, it was the wrong thing. People should have been given a line of credit.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:07 pmLooking ahead to a Biden presidency, how do the Biden supporters feel Biden is going to deal with China? Paul Krugman has admitted that his predictions about globalism and free trade were wrong.
So how is Biden going to help?
He’s been reflexively protective of China (shocker) and has been light on any ideas to “fix” our relationship with China – economically and/or politically – while help those American workers who lost their jobs to the globalism policies that Democrats said were going to be great.
I’m all ears.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:13 pm@294.No, Sammy- they were well timed– my late mother got hers deposited into her SS just in time — it literally covered her ‘final expenses’ after she’d passed.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:16 pm^94.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:16 pm@95. Look to a Harris presidency instead. They’ll eat her lunch.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:17 pmHouse: D’s 228-207
Senate: R’s 51-49
Upset: John James wins in MI
Not close: Martha McSally wins in AZ
New star: John James
Good-bye: Susan Collins
EC: 315-223 Trump
Election will be called for Trump at 12:45 a.m. 11/4
Roberto Caruso (fc4cd1) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:23 pmThat is a fascinating bit of alternative history.
In reality, the previous administration negotiated the Trans Pacific Partnership, a multilateral trade deal with 11 other countries aimed squarely at China’s export dominance. It would have eliminated tariffs on virtually all US manufactured and agricultural products in those countries, and given the US and its democratic trading partners leverage in negotiations with China.
Unfortunately, it was signed by Obama, so Trump blew it up five days after taking office.
I imagine one thing Biden will do is try to join the replacement that the 11 other parties renegotiated without us. Of course, we’ll probably get a worse deal than the original one, thanks to Trump’s petulance and stupidity.
Global trade is the basis for American prosperity.
Last I checked, the system where it’s the government’s responsibility to find everybody a job, regardless of their qualifications, was called “communism”.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:33 pmIF Biden does win the presidency, I predict that Kamala Harris will be America’s president by Jan 1., 2022
Roberto Caruso (fc4cd1) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:38 pmI predict Biden supporters here won’t own any nut job decisions Biden judges make.
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:48 pmI agree Biden will win.
Trump’s to blame for anything Biden does. No Trump = GOP wins big time in an easy crisis rally-round-flag election. Trump’s destroyed all these important causes and is the best gift Team D ever got.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/3/2020 @ 12:56 pmMost non-biased analysts noted that TPP would help the US service sector while not helping the middle and lower classes that lost their jobs to China.
As stated before, Krugman now admits he was wrong – globalism has not in fact helped the poor and middle class. Most sage economists know TPP would not either.
So how is Biden going to change things?
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:01 pmTrump’s to blame for anything Biden does.
Like I was saying.
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:04 pmLOL. Since when did Paul Krugman become a reliable authority?
Myth. Manufacturing employment declined in the US even as manufacturing output increased, and this was primarily due to mechanization and technology, not off-shoring.
Also, when Trump took office, unemployment was only 4.8%. In January of this year it was 3.6%.
So the narrative of a country left impoverished and destitute by “globalism” is the exact opposite of the truth.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:13 pmThe terrible consequences of Trump will linger on like Jimmy Carter’s did. Just as Carter had outspoken defenders on election day, but they shut the hell up soon enough, I expect in a few months it will be clear we’re healing. Not completely. Trump was a particularly awful symptom, but the disease in our education and values is deeper.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:25 pmLosing a good middle-class manufacturing job and having to take a job at Denny’s won’t move the unemployment meter in either direction.
Again – tell me how Biden is going to bring back those middle class and manufacturing jobs we lost. Explain. How is he going to “Build Back Better”
Because it’s highly unlikely he has the spine to stand up to Beijing.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:26 pmTrump wins.
GOP holds onto the Senate 51-49.
Dems make small gains in the House.
No matter how the election turns out the crazies on the far left will react with violence.
Mattsky (55d339) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:27 pm@79
Catron County. Good folks.
Marci (405d43) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:28 pmI expect to see DCSCA recycling his “old man” comments in four years when Trump runs for president in 2024.
Not.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:33 pmTrump hails ‘manufacturing miracle’ as factories bleed jobs
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:39 pm…..
Trump’s anti-trade agenda and a pandemic-induced recession have combined to shutter factories and accelerate decades-old trends toward automation, eliminating hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs, many for good, including in the Rust Belt states he needs to win in November.
……
But the White House’s trade wars kicked the sector into another slump in 2019, with Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania facing declines or plateaus in manufacturing employment even back in February — well before Covid-19 forced layoffs at dozens of plants. As of July — the most recent month for which data is available — each state is down between 20,000 and 40,000 workers from prepandemic levels.
……
…..Michigan was down some 66,500 manufacturing workers in July 2020 from July 2019 — and the general trend, even before Covid-19, was down as well. There were 10,200 fewer manufacturing workers in the state in February 2020 than there were in February 2019.
…….
Promises made, promises broken.
EC: 315-223 Trump
I’d be fascinated to know how Trump gets 315. He hasn’t a shot at more than 290.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:39 pmThe TPP locked into place some rather onerous international obligations helping multi-nationals and Hollywood, but not so much lesser players. And anything that promulgated copyrights to even longer terms through “rationalization” should be opposed.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:44 pmIf you want a system where everyone’s success is guaranteed, regardless of their decisions or actions, you may need to move to Cuba, Venezuela or North Korea (spoiler alert: don’t do it before you read the fine print).
It would seem to me the first order of business for Biden would be to “bring back” the millions of jobs – across the entire economy, not a handful of politically privileged industries – that have been lost in the last nine months due to the Trump administration’s incompetence. And to do that, he will have to follow science instead of science fiction, and get serious about controlling the pandemic.
More broadly, “bringing back” jobs that robots or illiterate peasants can do is not a viable economic strategy. Expanding trade and providing the means for people who want to learn skills that will lead to better paying jobs, while creating an environment where it’s easy for people with good ideas to start new businesses, is what I’d like to see, but I suspect Biden’s policies will be closer to Trump’s (and yours) than I would care for.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:44 pmTrumpWorld is a magical place, where dreams come true.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:46 pmTrump’s to blame for anything …
Trump’s to blame for sabotaging a 40-year Long March by the GOP to transformative power. All so that he could play Yosemite Sam, speaking loudly and carrying a limp stick.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:47 pmTrumpWorld is a magical place, where dreams come true.
I guess he carries Michigan after the People rise up.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:48 pmthere will be a test of loyalty: are you willing to loudly declare that Donald Trump was defrauded out of the presidency?
I would like to think that almost all GOP Senators would call bullsh1t on such a claim, but I’d settle for a majority.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:51 pmFun fact of the day: Joe Biden on Election Day 2020 is exactly as old as Ronald Reagan was on his final day in office in January 1989, both men being 77 years and 348 days old.
JVW (ee64e4) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:54 pmTired of Trump, Deutsche Bank games ways to sever ties with the president – sources
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:57 pmAren’t we all.
But he’s the hootin’-est, tootin’-est, shootin’-est bobtailed wildcat in the west!
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 1:58 pmTired of Trump, Deutsche Bank games ways to sever ties with the president – sources
We’ve never had a customer as terrible as he is, said Hitler’s former bank.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:07 pmBut he’s the hootin’-est, tootin’-est, shootin’-est bobtailed wildcat in the west!
To be fair, Sam knew which end of the gun to point.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:09 pmVoting is heavy here. Near the entrance to the parking lot at the local polling place, there were a couple dozen flag-waving Trump supporters. Trump will probably carry this county (and probably most counties in NM) but not the 3 that matter.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:11 pmIt’s 5pm on the east coast, and while I’ve seen reports of minor glitches at precincts here and there (which is inevitable, and always happens), so far Election Day seems to be going smoothly and peacefully.
I am normally an extreme pessimist, but in the back of my mind I’ve been hoping the election from hell might turn out to a Y2K-style disaster that never happened, and also that the early results might be clear and decisive enough to forestall shenanigans in the aftermath.
Fingers crossed…
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:15 pmDave, this is the 6th year, and third election, of campaign 2016 (which never ended).
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:19 pmTrump: Presidency has been ‘mean’ and filled with ‘horrible people’
President Donald Trump on Tuesday offered a bitter assessment of his tenure in the White House, saying the experience has been “mean” and marked by “horrible people.”
The comments came in an Election Day interview on “Fox & Friends,” after co-host Ainsley Earhardt asked Trump whether he has enjoyed being president and if the job has been “worth it.”
“Well, it’s been mean. It’s been — you’ve dealt with horrible people,” Trump replied, adding: “You deal with people that are very deceptive.”
…….
“They’ll go, ‘Mr. President, tell me, who’s the country that’s most difficult to deal with? Is it Russia? Is it China? Is it North Korea? Sir, is it North Korea?’” Trump said.
“And I go, ‘No. Well, by far, the most difficult country to deal with is the U.S. It’s not even close,’” he continued. “And they all say, ‘You’ve got to be kidding.’ And I say, ‘No, I’m actually probably not kidding.’ We have very, very deceptive people.”
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:19 pmSo, about that pessimist crown…
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:20 pm“Well, it’s been mean. It’s been — you’ve dealt with horrible people,” Trump replied, adding: “You deal with people that are very deceptive.”
So, Mr President, why did you run again? Why not just anoint a successor and retire back to NYC? Why expose yourself to all this grief?
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:22 pmYou’re right. TPP wasn’t ever going to help the manufacturing sectors of the US. It wasn’t intended to. It was intended to build a coalition in Asia to blunt China’s power and keep the US strong.
Trump hasn’t made any progress in rejuvenating the parts of the rust belt that have been hit hardest by globalism.
Biden won’t either.
The US isn’t willing to accept the standard of living reduction that would come with policies which accomplished that.
But we might be willing to accept that the incomes of those who benefit most from globalization be taxed and the proceeds used to help those who have been most harmed.
Time123 (89dfb2) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:25 pmTrump calls rapper Lil Pump ‘Little Pimp’ at closing night rally
Miami rapper Lil Pump, who has recently voiced his support for Donald Trump, was mistakenly addressed as “Little Pimp” by the president at a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Mich., on Monday night.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:26 pm……..
Trump must be more familiar with the word “pimp.”
1. Final tally in the House: About 240
2. Final tally in the Senate: 52 seats
3. Biggest Congressional upset: John James wins
4. Congressional race that is expected to be close but won’t be: Graham.
5. Brightest star emerging from this election: Mayor Pete
6. Career that is pretty much over after this election: Bannon
7. Final electoral college tally: Biden over 300 after winning PA and FL
8. Earliest date that the winner of the Presidential contest will be accurately declared and by whom
If Biden Wins FL, NC, or MI cleanly we’ll know by 8PM. At that point I think we start seeing lots of conversation about how he won.
Under any other scenario we see Trump and his dishonest supporters trying to launch a claim that he ‘won’ and de-legitimize any other outcome.
If Biden is clearly ahead in the absentee ballots I think it’s over by the weekend.
If it’s close in key states (PA, WI, FL) this will take a while.
Time123 (89dfb2) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:32 pmIt’s not about tough talk. It’s about people in the US being unwilling to pay more for domestically produced goods. If you can’t honestly say you’re wearing at least 4 made in the US items *right* now I don’t want to hear it.
Time123 (89dfb2) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:34 pmIf Biden Wins FL, NC, or MI
Trump doesn’t need Michigan (and he can’t win Michigan). GA and TX are winnable, and he needs both of them.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:40 pmIf you can’t honestly say you’re wearing at least 4 made in the US items *right* now I don’t want to hear it.
I attempt to buy clothing and textiles from the US because they are generally better quality. I can’t tell you how many bedsheets from China I’ve tossed before I got the idea that they were generally crappy (pilling within a week). Now I buy them from US boutique naufacturers online. China makes clothes with lots of plastic in them, and in the NM summer that really sucks. I won’t buy produce from China under any circumstances.
The best solar panels, many of the best cars, all of the best electonics products are designed in the USA and more and more are assembled here too. Most of the failed electronics I’ve experienced were due to substandard parts sourced in China (particularly capacitors). Japan and Korea are preferred and the USA is now competitive. Intel makes Optane memory products right here in my town.
What China has going is CHEAP and looking-the-other-way. Not so much cheap labor on electronics (it would cost Apple no more money to assemble iphones in California than China (not much labor and what there is is well-paid) but it would cost them LOTS more in regulatory fees, pollution abatement and taxes. None of which Biden will do a thing to abate.
This whole “America would be poorer if we made stuff here” is so wrong, from multiple directions.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:52 pmThe Upshot (the NYT spin-off of fivethirtyeight) has retired “the Needle” this year, except for three states where they say there will be enough information on which Election Day and mail ballots have been reported to make accurate estimates of the votes still remaining to be counted.
Those states are Florida, North Carolina and Georgia.
Realistically Trump probably needs all three, while Biden could win without any of them (taking one would give him insurance against losing PA or another Rust Belt state, and taking two or more would probably mean he’s elected).
If either candidate overperforms it may be an early indication of the national trend.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 2:56 pmIf Biden wins Michigan big, he carries Peters over the line. James hasn’t been polling closer than 5 points in the past couple of weeks, and depending on the pollster, as far as 12 points behind.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:00 pmThey should reveal swing state results Texas hold style at 1.30am ET. A low mutual EV hand might portend a blowout and a high mutual EV hand signifies a close, 1-state mov race.
urbanleftbehind (e52fec) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:03 pmDemocrats return nearly three times as many mail-in ballots as Republicans in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has received more than 2.5 million mail-in and absentee ballots so far, according to new data from election officials here.
That means that 81 percent of state voters who were sent those ballots have returned them. To break it down, more than 1.6 million of those ballots were from registered Democrats, 586,000 were from Republicans, and 278,000 were from independents or third-party voters.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:09 pm……..
One stat that is interesting, though, is that 84 percent of registered Democrats who have been sent mail-in or absentee ballots have returned them, compared with 74 percent of Republicans.
……
CNN exit poll- 34% say economy top issue; Covid, just 18%; Biden people now say they can lose four big states, PA, FL, etc., and ‘still win.’ Translation: running against the bug was stupid; losing big states mean messaging failed.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:16 pmTrump wins with 322 EVs. GOP gets more Senate seats. GOP takes the House.
PH2 (2134ae) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:20 pmBiden voters and Trump voters both listed economic recovery as a top issue, and in nearly equal percentages (75 vs. 80)
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:20 pmBloodsucking capitalists betting on Biden to win steady all day.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:22 pm@143-
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:25 pmShow your work.
That makes no sense, Dave 144. Biden voters can’t think Biden will prioritize the economy after he has called for Covid lockdowns and no fracking.
DRJ (aede82) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:26 pmI guess that is the Democrats version of Build the Wall and make Mexico pay for it.
DRJ (aede82) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:27 pmIf Biden wins Michigan big
If Biden loses Michigan, he loses period because the polls are fubar.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:28 pmTrump wins with 322 EVs. GOP gets more Senate seats. GOP takes the House.
If you believe in fairies, clap your hands.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:29 pmBiden voters can’t think Biden will prioritize the economy after he has called for Covid lockdowns and no fracking.
They also believe in fairies.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:30 pmThe part Deezy-eska left out:
Doesn’t sound very Trumpy to me…
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:30 pmVoters saw election as a judgment on Trump
……
AP VoteCast, an expansive survey of the electorate, found roughly two-thirds of voters said their opinion of the Republican president — either for or against — drove their choice. Only about a third said the same of his Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. This was the case nationally, as well as in many of the battleground states that will determine which candidate wins a majority in the electoral college.
The results suggest that Trump’s leadership, personality and omnipresence in the spotlight have defined the race, even as voters grappled with a historic set of overlapping crises.
……[R]oughly 4 in 10 voters said the pandemic was the top concern facing the country. The economy followed close behind, the choice of about 3 in 10 voters. In a year of racial justice protests and debate over structural racism, about 1 in 10 voters cited racism as the most important issue.
……
Voters were divided on whether the nation has contained the spread of the virus. About half of voters said the virus is somewhat or mostly under control. And about half described the coronavirus as out of control.
About 6 in 10 voters said the government’s higher priority should be limiting the spread of the coronavirus, even if it damages the economy.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:31 pm……
The majority of voters made up their minds long ago. Three-quarters said they’ve always known how they would vote. Trump’s campaign spent much of the campaign focused on turning out entrenched voters rather than convincing voters who might have been persuadable.
…….
I predict ten hours of Rachel Maddow and Brit Hume will endanger my supply of Wild Turkey.
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:32 pm@147 Plus, you’d think he’ll have his decrepit, 78-year old hands full for at least a few months, killing God and imposing communism.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:34 pmDems House 226
Senate 50-50 (Harris tiebreaker)
Biden EC 285
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:38 pmI think Brit Hume is already turning on Trump:
DRJ (aede82) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:38 pmAbout 6 in 10 voters said the government’s higher priority should be limiting the spread of the coronavirus, even if it damages the economy.
It would be fascinating to see how holding a steady job throughout the COVID-19 panic correlates with believing the government should prioritize fighting the spread of the virus. What if the Biden Administration were to announce that the government would impose a 30-day lockdown, but that in return all people who remained employed for the past nine months would have an extra 50% surcharge on their income tax retroactive to this past April 1. I wonder if support for prioritizing the economy might score a little bit more highly in that case.
JVW (ee64e4) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:41 pm@157-
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:41 pmTrump couldn’t help himself, it’s in his nature. Why is Hume surprised?
A key demographic appears to be breaking decisively for Biden.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:43 pmKevin. Out of pure curiosity. And don’t answer if you don’t want to but as a person with strong NM ties and family (Go Aggies) what county are you in?
Two weeks ago driving up through Española I was truly surprised at the number of Trump signs I saw.
Marci (405d43) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:45 pmOr we could impose $500 fines (doubled for each repeat offense) on breathing without a mask in public, to drive home the point to the slow learners that failure to observe common-sense precautions has painful economic consequences for everyone.
(I still think bounties are the preferred, free-market approach to mask enforcement though)
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 3:55 pmTrump has been good for Kelly Loefler’s economy and Betsy DeVos’s too, not to mention Brad Parscale’s, but maybe not so good for Bridget Kelly’s, and Betsy Johnson’s, and Bill Peters’s?
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:00 pmThe New York Times
@nytimes
·
Correction: We’ve deleted an earlier tweet that referred imprecisely to the role of the news media in the U.S. presidential election. The news media projects winners and reports results; it does not declare the winner of the election.
__
The woke kids got the Twitter phone again.
harkin (7fb4c9) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:01 pm_
First results coming in from FL.
Trump is running ~5% behind his 2016 margins in red counties; whether that is meaningful at this stage is unclear.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:12 pmTwitter subscribers, comrades, is like soldier in Army who writes home to mother: “What I miss most, Mom, is your cooking. The food here is terrible and such small portions, too.”
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:12 pmJune 23, 2020:
Biden campaign restricts contacts with foreign officials
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/06/23/biden-campaign-restricts-contact-foreign-officials-335544
__ _
Today:
“ At a moment that talks and formal relations between the Palestinian Authority (PA) under Mahmoud Abbas and the White House have remained effectively frozen for years since the December 6, 2017 US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, an Israeli media report revealed early this week that the PA has been in quiet talks with the Joe Biden campaign in the lead-in to the election.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/palestinian-authority-has-been-talks-biden-campaign-desperate-trump-exit
__
For an old guy his team is hitting the ground runnin’.
harkin (7fb4c9) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:14 pm_
DON’T TRUST EXIT POLLS!!!1!
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:18 pmTrump down 10% to 2016 in GA among white men. Ruh roh.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:19 pmDave – could be shy Biden voters (which would be more prevalent in deep red counties) or perhaps ex-felons who paid up or had Bloomie cut the check.
urbanleftbehind (e52fec) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:20 pmTo be fair, 2016 early returns favored Clinton in GA and SC.
urbanleftbehind (e52fec) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:21 pmThe Needle likes Trump’s chances in FL, although the range of outcomes is still large.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:22 pmMiami-Dade 86% in. Only 54-45 Biden. HRC pulled 63%
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:23 pm@152. No, Davey. That’s a wholly different question. You have a cold and get a snake bite; which do you prioritize to tend to first. Stay out of the poli-sci lab, Davey; stick to neutrinos.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:24 pm@158.See 174. That’s nimmedicy question. the economy is the top issue and frankly, it routinely is– people tend to vote their pocketbooks. When it comes to prioritizing, that’s a different question pattern. Poli-Sci 101.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:27 pmTrump is running against himself, and when people say “economy” or “Covid”, what they’re saying is where he f***ed up the most.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:31 pmTrump wins W.Va.
Not far from Scranton, eh Joey?!
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:31 pm172. Yeah, Florida looks bad. What’s the needle at?
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:32 pm94% Trump needle in FL right now, projecting Trump +3 final result
Exit polls show 11 pt red swing in Cuban neighborhoods
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:35 pmStrictly from a Poli Sci POV, the incumbent should have the advantage, but that’s not showing strongly so far in early East Coast numbers coming in. This is a genuinely interesting election to track.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:36 pmBiden won Vermont, the one state that never had gun control. Who needs AR-15s when you have great-granddad’s BAR?
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:36 pmBREAKING NEWS: California results tonight will be slow, because the central clearinghouse for all vote results is in San Jose, but Federal ballot collectors can’t find their way there.
😉
qdpsteve (8d496a) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:38 pmGA looking bad for DJT. Women outvoting men by 7 points and they are all about hating DJT. Cobb County is a MAJOR problem for DJT. The Loeffler seat is certain to go to runoff. Perdue on the cusp of avoiding runoff, but doubtful he wins outright tonight.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:39 pmVirginia being called early for D and NH is leaning that way.
urbanleftbehind (e52fec) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:39 pmThe thing is, if the Upshot is right, there are NO absentee votes in the Miami-Dade totals yet.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:40 pmThat’s weird…who’s the top 2 to advance the GA runoff?
urbanleftbehind (e52fec) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:41 pmAll these weeks out, early voting/mail-in ballots and after Eletion Day acceptance really have grown into significance over the past several cycles as the actual ‘Election Day’ itself diminishes. It’s fast becoming ‘Election Month.’ Wonder what The Founders would say about that.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:42 pmWonder what The Founders would say about that.
They’d say: “It is what it is. Horses travel only so fast and most of the roads are not very good.”
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:44 pm186 – Warnock, a black reverend from Atlanta will win plurality tonight. Incumbent Loeffler seems to have enough to beat DJT acolyte Doug Collins. Perdue would face Jon Ossoff, a slick ad man from Atlanta.
Spalding County, GA, a major DJT stronghold, just had closing time extended to 9 PM.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:45 pmFox projects McConnell win over McGrath.
Well, that certainly sucks for anothrt 6 years. They only thing that could suck more- [literally and figurative, perhaps] is Lindsey Graham winning.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:46 pmLoeffler gets the Qanon vote.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:46 pmDid anybody have exactly 306 EVs Trump?
urbanleftbehind (e52fec) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:51 pmWow, Biden outperforming Clinton considerably in Ohio.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:55 pmIt only counts if it seeps eastward and northward.
urbanleftbehind (e52fec) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:56 pm@194 Unlikely Biden would take OH w/o PA, but if it comes to that, he wins with OH or PA.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 4:58 pmQAnon goes to Congress. And no, I’m no fan of the Squad. But QAnon is worse.
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:04 pm1. Dems get small gains in the house
Nic (896fdf) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:06 pm2. 52-48, Dems
3. No clue.
4. Graham. Lindsey wins by far.
5. Not a clue
6. Beto O’Rourke
7. Biden with 320
8. I think we know the Pres by Friday, but Trump isn’t going to be happy.
Trump squeaking ahead in FL as panhandle numbers come in.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:06 pmToledo, Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland trending for Biden. No surprise there
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:09 pmFox numbers show Biden leading in Texas over Trump. Very interesting.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:11 pmDecision Desk – a very careful outfit, CALLS FLORIDA FOR DJT
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:13 pmEd from SFV,
Yup. Just came to post that. Big news. Trump needs Florida.
Biden does not. But it would have been nice for him.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:14 pmFox shows FL lead growing for Trump but not called it yet. Panhandle numbers still coming in.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:16 pmDCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:11 pm
Those results are mostly from Austin and Houston. Both liberal strongholds.
felipe (023cc9) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:17 pmIt was Fl panhandle that did it for DJT.
felipe (023cc9) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:17 pmThis is really an interesting election.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:18 pmYes, it is. DCSCA.
felipe (023cc9) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:19 pmEarly take on FL is that Cubans were overwhelmingly, broken glass, motivated. Blacks were well over 10% for DJT.
Looks like a 3-pt win, which blows ALL the conventional polls out of the water. They blew this one worse than 2016.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:20 pmThe story of FL seems to be the Cuban vote in Miami-Dade.
The Upshot shows “Cuban neighborhoods” going from 55% D in 2016 to 58% R this year.
Fortunately for Biden, that demographic isn’t very relevant to other battlegrounds.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:20 pm@204. Yeah, well, the cities tend to go that way anyway but honestly, so far, this is a truly fascinating election pattern to follow. They’ll be studying this one in Poli-Sci classes for years.
Fox just called Indiana for Trump. Not really a surprise w/Pence on the tkt.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:21 pm@209.Watch out for them Amish and Pennsylvania Dutch-type folks up in the Commonwealth, Davey. 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:22 pmThe same EV breakdowns I saw for FL said DJT was running well ahead of the leads HRC had in 2016 in FL. Came out just about exactly as indicated.
A headline for me now is that AZ is the very same deal. DJT looking better. He should win by 1 or 2 points.
Georgia is everything right now, imo. Biden performing much better than HRC did.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:25 pmBiden won Delaware– and yo’d expect that… but even so, Trump pulled 19.4% there. That’s amazing.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:25 pm@212. Georgia is everything right now, imo. Biden performing much better than HRC did.
Wonder why– you think it’s personally driven or shifting demographics.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:27 pmSuburban women. No question, DCSCA. DJT is in big trouble.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:28 pmThe Needle likes Trump (+4.5) in GA too.
It has NC essentially even.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:31 pmI am getting the same feeling I had in 2016 about this time of the night.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:31 pmOr we could impose $500 fines (doubled for each repeat offense) on breathing without a mask in public, to drive home the point to the slow learners that failure to observe common-sense precautions has painful economic consequences for everyone.
Or sure, Dave, penalize the poor and the young, all while empowering the police state.
Our great cities can’t even arrest someone who loots a television set from a burning Best Buy, nor break up a protest or even a victory celebration when the associated millionaire athletes win a championship. What makes you think they have the inclination or fortitude to enforce mask rules and issue citations? Defund the police!
JVW (ee64e4) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:31 pm@216 – As I understand it Dave, only 10% of Fulton County are in. There will be massive change toward Biden as they are counted. Many polls there extended to 9 PM.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:32 pmThere has been almost no real positive news for Biden.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:32 pmEd, NYT has Trump at 86% likely to win GA right now, so… I think it’s probably looking ok for him.
nate_w (1f1d55) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:32 pmI am getting the same feeling I had in 2016 about this time of the night.
I think I’m logging off for the evening. Going to cook dinner, watch a movie, read a book, then go to bed. Up fairly early tomorrow to grab a swim. If all goes according to plan, I won’t hear anything about the election until about 9:00 am tomorrow.
JVW (ee64e4) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:33 pmSo far, Harris County (Houston) TX is running about the same as it did in 2016. If that holds, DJT wins Texas.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:35 pmBiden is doing well in Ohio. And Texas could be looking positive; tough to say.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:35 pm@216.@220. Don’t count him out yet– but the emerging patterns are really, really interesting– and there are all those banked votes to tally. Strictly from a strategic POV, I think running “against the virus” for months on end instead of “for” something or other was an error.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:39 pmTexas flipping blue would be a surprise; but would that be due to an embrace of Biden or the shifting demographics that have been trending for several cycles. Texans would know better.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:42 pmCBS reporting that Georgia will not be fully counted for two days.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:44 pm@215. Yeah, that fits. That’ll be an uphill climb for him across the country.
Honestly, this is one of the more fascinating elections we’ve had in decades.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:45 pmThere’s a pipe burst at an Atlanta absentee ballot processing facility. https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/fulton-election-results-delayed-after-pipe-bursts-in-room-with-ballots/4T3KPQV7PBEX3JVAIGJBNBSVJY/
urbanleftbehind (e52fec) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:45 pmExit polls are nonsense when 70% of the ballots were cast before today.
The percentages “in” they claim are precincts reporting, when again most of the votes are counted separately.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:46 pmFox reporting Trump winning popular vote, 50.1% to 48.6%. So far, that’s within my ‘3% squeaker’ prediction.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:47 pmBiden’s swing in TX doesn’t look large enough to win the state.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:49 pm@229. The ‘Biggest Losers’ tonight will be the pollsters. People lie like rugs to them anymore. ‘Folks’ have caught on that their data is power.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:49 pmI’m sure the FBI will investigate Biden’s team for meeting with Palestinians. Wait…Nah. It’s only wrong when Flynn does it.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:49 pmI suggest watching BBCs coverage. None of those deep statistical dives into data supported only by the votes cast today.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:49 pmDJT’s former White House doctor, Ronny Jackson, wins congressional seat in Texas.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:49 pmThe good news so far is that the fever dreams of the pants-wetting Biden supporters have not come to fruition so far: electoral violence, Russian cyber attacks, Proud Boys stalking the polls, etc.
I wonder if anyone will hold them accountable for stoking needless hysteria?
Nah…
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:51 pmPrediction. GOP holds Senate. Too much going Trump’s way
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:51 pm@231. That really would be a surprise; Joe Biden ain’t no LBJ.
I’m amazed that even though you’d expect Delaware to be a slam dunk for Joe, 20% of the vote still went for Trump.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:52 pmHa
Haha…hahhhahaahahhah…gulp…haahaahaa.
There is no path for Trump to hit 290, Trump has almost no path to hit 270 as is. MI, WI, PA are solid Biden wins, so it’s basically over now, it’s all about how bad it will be for Trump. If Ohio flips, it’s an epic blowout. The entire map has shifted –>Biden by 5%, that doesn’t win Texas for him, but it flips Ariz, and NC, not to mention MIWIPA.
Dems flip the senate, end up at 50/51, and raise their margin in the house.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (1367c0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:53 pm230. California will deliver an 8 million vote margin for Biden. Maybe more.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:53 pm@235. Fascinating. What an act.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:53 pmKlink! Where you been, Comrade?
😀
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:55 pm@240. Certainly in the big urban areas like LA or SF, but San Diego leans Trump. We’ll see how it breaks down. Really, really interesting patterns emerging.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:56 pmNo way can GA be called tonight if Fulton County will not report.
But, Gov. Kemp is immediate past Secretary of State, and as we saw with being the first to open up the state Covid restrictions, he does not screw around. This will not be a Penn.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 5:56 pmNeedle still likes Trump in GA and NC, despite a non-negligible Biden lead in NC.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:00 pm125 million votes total in 2016. 101 million pre-votes. This isn’t like other elections.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:01 pmBiden is overperforming Clinton, often dramatically, just about everywhere but Miami-Dade.
Remember that Trump won last time thanks to margins of less than 1% in three states last time.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:04 pmFox calls Hickenlooper winner over Gardner in Colorado. Flips a Semate R to a D.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:04 pmShalala and another incumbent Dem in Miami were booted out of Congress. Nobody, and I mean nobody, called that.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:05 pmTrump needs TX FL GA NC OH and PA. Probably AZ. So far he’s threading the needle.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:05 pmZerohedge is the original Russia-sponsored variant of QAnon.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:06 pm249. I did in my prediction up top. Too many 2018 wins in red districts
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:07 pm@252 – No offense intended. I was referring to polling firms/elites.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:08 pmFox calls Hickenlooper winner over Gardner in Colorado.
Das freut mich.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:08 pmIf Cornyn has won, there will be no Democrat landslide. (And he has.)
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:09 pmNo offense intended. I was referring to polling firms/elites.
None taken. I am gratified to see that “some balance is returning” to the House, to steal a Demcorat phrase.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:10 pm@247. Wallace just said on Fox he has been told by the Biden people that they have ‘waved the white flag’ and concede Florida is lost.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:10 pm@255. What’s the percentage, P?
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:11 pmThe same may hold in Illinois, 4 suburban CD races, all D incumbents, are tight, with an upset in the 10th (Valerie Ramirez Mukherjee leading Brad Schneider) brewing.
urbanleftbehind (28ff7b) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:12 pmTillis is running ahead of DJT in NC. If Needle is right (I don’t see how) GOP gonna hold the Senate, imo.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:13 pmWith 55% reporting, Cornyn is leading by 4% according to AP.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:14 pmCornyn running 2% ahead of Trump according to fivethirtyeight.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:15 pmThe way it looks now, with TX, PA, NC, AZ and OH up for grabs:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#CO:0,FL:1,GA:1,MI:0,MN:0,NH:0,NV:0,WI:0,ID:1,MT:1,WY:1,UT:1,WA:0,OR:0,CA:0,NY:0,VT:0,ME:1,CT:0,RI:0,MA:0,NJ:0,IL:0,MD:0,DE:0,MS:1,LA:1,AR:1,MO:1,OK:1,KS:1,ND:1,SD:1,NE:1,NM:0,AK:1,HI:0,SC:1,AL:1,TN:1,KY:1,IN:1,WV:1,IA:1,VA:0
It’s a toss-up.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:15 pmI’m feeling better right now though.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:16 pmJames outperforming DJT in MI in early returns.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:16 pmWith 61% reporting, Biden is 1.3% ahead of Trump in Texas.
It’s really way too early.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:17 pm@261. What was Cruz’s winning margin? If memory serves,it was close to Cornyn’s numbers as of now which fits the demographic shifts.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:20 pmOOOPs. 263 has ME going the wrong way.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:21 pmFox flatly declaring Dems will gain net +5 House seats? I know of at least 4 flips for the GOP. What are they seeing????
Trumball County in Ohio is trending to DJT. It’s a bellweather in Ohio. Who knows?
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:21 pmOhio tightening.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:22 pmWith 61% reporting
What does that even mean when less than 1/3rds of the vote was cast today? Usually, those precinct numbers are today’s poll and the “absentees” are a small fraction. Today it’s upside down, and people are using these numbers without a lot of understanding.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:23 pm263. Kevin!!!
538’s own predictions, not Kevin’s.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:24 pmTrump needs AZ and PA besides these easier ones. My guess is he fails at PA. 279-259 Biden.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:25 pmVery early trend in MI…Biden and Peters are not banking enough votes in their strongholds.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:25 pmWhat does that even mean when less than 1/3rds of the vote was cast today? Usually, those precinct numbers are today’s poll and the “absentees” are a small fraction. Today it’s upside down, and people are using these numbers without a lot of understanding.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:26 pmKevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:23 pm
Yeah, nk, but he’s predicting Biden wins in GA, NC and FL. Flick those red and see how it changes.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:27 pmIf they were smart and rational, they would change their coverage with the changing election landscape, but the media is far too stupid to do that.
This is why I’m watching it on the Beeb. They at least know they don’t know.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:28 pmInsane number from Loudon County (Fairfax)in Northern Virginia. Trump with 54%, outperforming ’16 by 15 points.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:28 pmLoudon is the least liberal county of NoVa. He’ll have to do better than that to counteract the liberal wave in Fairfax, Arlington, and Prince William.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:33 pmIf Trump wins Virginia, he wins.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:38 pmUpshot says they estimate 62% of the remaining vote in OH is from counties won by Clinton in 2016.
Of course, with the early/election day voting dichotomy, it’s hard to do more than guess.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:38 pmAP has called VA for Biden.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:39 pm@279 – It will be beyond shocking if DJT wins VA. But, school moms in Northern VA are super pissed about the games played by the Dems who keep the schools closed. Fairfax County is only 52-45 for Biden (80% precincts in). It went 65% for HRC.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:40 pmSome of the betting houses are now posting odds that Trump wins. I did not expect this.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:44 pmStill not enough. NoVa needs a big turn to Trump to win it. Not enough voters in the rest of the state. The tide has to turn big in NoVa for Trump to win. Not small or medium…big.
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:45 pm538 is using “% of expected vote” rather than “% of precincts”.
In 2016, TX had 9 million votes cast. More Texans than that cast early votes this time. They’ll probably have 12 million total this time.
RCP has it as 45% (precincts) reporting. 538 calls that 75% of expected. I doubt either of those is accurate.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:48 pmCNN says VA total is missing most of the early vote, especially Dem areas.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:49 pmFox has Trump leading in Ohio; MSNBC has Biden leading in Ohio; CNN has Trump/Clinton numbers from 4 years ago up. WTF.
Yes, CNN sucks.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:49 pmStill not enough.
Agree, but things are all flowing Trump’s way. I think that Biden will hold at PA, if not sooner, but it’s gonna be close.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:50 pmCNN has Trump/Clinton numbers from 4 years ago up.
It COULD be Trump/Clinton numbers from 2024 through a time warp. Just a step to the left.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:51 pm@284. Yeah, Hume just said the betting odds have flipped w/a 65/35 Trump win.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:51 pm@290. LOL they just keep adding to the confusion flipping back and forth.
CSPAN is doing a good job.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:53 pmBiden’s pretty solid performance in TX bodes well for AZ.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:54 pmJVW had the right idea.
I take comfort in the thought that Mr. President Drumpfy McDrumpfelschnitzel, who’ll do anything to take you into his world and hold you within (it’s a right he defends over and over again), is suffering the most from this drip-drip-drip like those shower faucets where it takes an hour to wash your beautiful hair.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:55 pmI can’t imagine Biden losing PA. He’s the first-born son of PA. Scranton is his home. He says that every day.
I wonder if Delaware feels like a red-headed stepchild at this point…
Hoi Polloi (66077a) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:56 pmFox calls SC for Trump;
Calls win for Graham. Well, that DOES suck.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:57 pm@294.I think he did, too.
Might just dig out a movie and see who won tomorrow.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 6:58 pmDoes Maine have delayed returns due to the rank choice system, I bet no one had Collins surviving but the early limited returns say so.
urbanleftbehind (28ff7b) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:02 pmWell, that was strange.
I left to go vote this afternoon. I went to the same place I voted in 2018. It used to be a Chevrolet dealership, but it closed years ago and was converted into a voting site. Then the parking lot was packed (I had to park down the street). Large crowds, long lines, it took over an hour just to get to the voting booth. That’s what I anticipated, but when I got there it was abandoned, no one in sight.
So I came back home and looked up where I could vote. Turned out I could vote at the junior high down the street or the university up the street. I chose the junior high, because it’s closer.
When I pulled into the parking lot, a security guard asked if I was there to vote. I showed him my voter registration card and told him I was looking for where I could vote. “You can vote anywhere, sir,” he said.
The parking lot was practically vacant. So I found a space and walked into the gym. There was no crowd, no line, I just walked in unimpeded. There was hardly anyone there; the place was practically empty. I showed the election official my registration card and driver’s license, then signed some voter registration paper, was given a number to put in the computer so I could vote.
There was hardly anyone there. I used the Q-tip to punch in my number and vote. That was that. Then I went to the liquor store to buy whiskey and watch the results.
The reason why there was hardly anyone at the voting site is because, I think, most people voted early or by mail.
My sister moved back down here, leased a duplex, to help me take care of our mother. I called her last week and asked if she had registered to vote in Hidalgo County. She said, “I’ve already voted.”
You’ve already voted? How is that possible? She simply went to the county board and voted early. I don’t know who she voted for, didn’t ask and frankly don’t care. I don’t argue politics with family.
I just voted my conscience. I voted against every Republican; Democrat where I had to and Libertarian where I could.
We won’t know the results for weeks. Too many mail-in ballots to count. But I am expecting a Biden win, the Democrats take over the Senate and gain seats in the House.
I could be wrong. I often am. But that’s how I see the outcome at this time.
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:03 pmTrump moves ahead in OH; if the Upshot is right there is much more Biden vote left to count though.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:05 pmYou are either part of the problem, or part of the solution Ghost. Since the solution is ridding hte GOP of Trump, not nuking the saner party, you’ve made your choice.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:07 pmNo surprises so far, not even New Mexico.
Trump did better than in 2016 in Miami Dade (because of anti-Castro and Maduro foreign policy. Former New York Governor David Paterson wonders on WOR why nobody has called it Florida for Trump All early votes were reported by 8:30 pm. 94% of the vote in. Are they burned by the year 2000?
Indiana and North Carolina were both carried by Obama in 2008. Democrats have pretty much given up on Indiana since then, but had some hopes for North Carolina. North Carolina early votes and processed mail ballots were supposed to be reported at 7:30 pm – this was postponed to 8:15 pm because of long lines at polls. Biden’s people had said they ran up the early and mail vote so much that Trump wold hav to get 60% of the election day vote to beat him. It looks like he is. He’s getting some 69% (to Biden’s 30%) of the election day vote so Biden got an apparent lead which is shrinking.
In Virginia it looks the opposite – that Trump has a lead. But this is because Election Day votes are reported first. Counties have an 11 pm deadline to report all early votes and mail votes processed up to that point. Any mail votes processed after that will be reported noon November 6.
Ohio shows an apparent Biden lead but that is because ballots cast before Election Day were reported at 8 pm. In one or two places Trump may be doing better than before.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:07 pmFlorida is already 20% over the 2016 vote. It’s at the point where there are no more votes left to worry about. They need to call that now.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:08 pmGetting the sinking feeling again
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:08 pmBig Biden lead (+11?!) in AZ with 69% reporting.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:09 pm77% of vote supposedly in from Maricopa County (Phoenix); Trump won the county by 3% in 2016. Biden is up by 10.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:11 pmNew York and New Jersey, both called early for Biden, vote the opposite way.
In New York, in person votes take priority, and mail votes (including any left at the polling place) are not examined until after the polls close.
In New Jersey, mail votes take priority and there s no early voting) and all votes cast in person on Election Day are provisional, and require an affidavit and proving additional information like a driver’s license or Social Security number and aren’t even counted until November 10, the last day mail ballots can arrive. Most people in New Jersey did not know about that.
Cory Booker won re-election in an election nobody was paying any attention to.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:16 pmIn Arizona the first results reported were early votes and mail ballots arriving before Election Day. They could stat counting two weeks before. Provisional in person ballots are reviewed on Election Night. Election Day is the last day absentee ballots can arrive.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:21 pm@301 I’m not part of the problem, because I didn’t create the problem. I’m not part of the solution, because my one vote out of millions will not change anything.
What we have is a bankrupt duopoly. My basic political philosophy is to vote against the incumbent.
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:22 pmReasonably big turnout in New York but no lines – that was reserved for early voting.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:22 pmLatinx vote soft for biden in floriduh and texas. We will see about az and nevada. If biden blows this by ignoring non cuban latinx voters Democrat establishment and media will finally get finished off. AOC wins nomination and presidency in 2024.
asset (3031b7) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:24 pmYou’re right Dave. I get the same numbers, barring some explosion of voters today. I’d bet against Trump in AZ and that makes things hard for him. Real hard. Even with PA he’s at 267 at a prayer.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:24 pmSecond of three seats Democrats needed to flip, flipped. (Colorado and Arizona called)
Actually they need one more because Alabama will flip.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:25 pmFlorida Hispanics (pardon me for not using the abhorrent “Latinx”) are not the same as those in Texas.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:25 pmWhat we have is a bankrupt duopoly. My basic political philosophy is to vote against the incumbent.
Which in the House is the Democrats.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:27 pmMy tenure as a partner at rhymes with Mick Hensey is over, I just don’t have the drive for 20 hour days anymore. So I’ve been doing some soul searching on what I want to do with the rest of my life. Kid’s out of the house, wife retired, so what to do and where from. The answer to where from is Waimea, but is there enough advisory or board work in Hawaii, the West Coast US/BC; or potentially ANZ. I don’t want anything more than part time, single shingle or affiliated alumni.
I want to spend the morning lovingly sipping on some Kona coffee, the afternoon drinking a Golden Sabbath from Big Island Brewhouse.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (1367c0) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:30 pmElection Day is the last day absentee ballots can arrive.
For now, you vote suppressor, you!
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:30 pmThough it looks like Biden wins, it’s going to be close enough for ugly fighting for a while, and it’s definitely not a loud repudiation on the scale of the complaints I make about Trump. If he’s so bad, and we’re such a great place, he should lose very badly.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:30 pmYes, if anything maybe the all-inclusive category, whichever one may prefer, should be rendered kaput sooner than later.
This might also be stirring the minds of the Latin American subgroups in FL…https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/02/mma-ufc-qanon-conspiracy-trump-433852
urbanleftbehind (28ff7b) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:31 pmFrom fivethirtyeight’s livecast:
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:33 pmTrump scaled down his election night activities, Not in Trump Hotel, although some Cabinet members will be there. Only 400 people in the East Room of the White House, all tested for corona. But rapid tests may not catch everything.
Asked earlier if he planned remarks, Trump mentioned a concession speech first. (he hadn’t prepared one or the other kind.)
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:34 pmVoters still on line in Maricopa County, past normal poll closing hours. (Of course these precincts haven;t reported Election Day vote)
iden campaign losing hope in lorida, Georgia and North Carolina (winning any one of which would end ir theythink)
Trump has some hopes for Nevada [6 Electoral votes] (margin for Hillary in 2016 was bigger than it should have been, because Dems organized a big early vote banking operation – and many people in Las Vegas are afraid of lockdowns.
Again, 306 – Michigan = 290 – Wisconsin = 280 minus Pennsylvania = 260.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:48 pmDustin,
Does it really?
Somehow it looks bleak to me.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:50 pmWhen this thing ends 269-269 (Biden wins AZ, but loses PA, NE2 and ME2) and Trump is elected by the House, I look forward to him declaring it the biggest landslide since FDR.
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:51 pmSenate runoff(s) in Georgia will be held January 5.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:51 pmIndeed. I was confused why you were briefly feeling better.
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:54 pmI thought Ohio was looking good.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:56 pmYou get 269-269 by Biden winning Michigan and Wisconsin and Arizona but not Pennsylvania or North Carolina or Maine-2 or Nebraska-2.
You can also flip both Wisconsin and Minnesota.
House doesn’t elect Trump.
Change in House membership results in deadlock.
Senate, by carefully timed vote, elects Pence.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 7:59 pmIt’s very strange, I think due to the fact that order in which in-person/mail/early votes is reported varies by state, and even within a state.
Biden has an insane lead now in MN, but looks behind in MI. The two states are demographically very similar, so it’s hard to understand how Biden could massively overperform in one and underperform in the other. It’s more likely the discrepancy is due to the order ballots of different types are being counted.
AZ gives Biden an insurance policy.
IA is small, but Biden is looking surprisingly strong there too. 95% or more of the vote is supposedly in in Polk, Johnson, and Dallas counties
Clinton won Polk (the largest in the state) by 11; Biden is winning by 16.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:00 pmClinton won Johnson by 38; Biden is winning by 43.
Trump won Dallas by 9; it is even right now.
Ohio reported all votes cast before election Day at 8 pm. Postmarked ballots can arrive until Nov 13. Reported by November 28.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:01 pmIn MN, Hennepin county (Minneapolis) supposedly has 94% of the vote in.
Clinton won by 35; Biden is leading by 43.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:03 pmCan we expect Frank Luntz and Nate Silver to be working a squeegie spot on the West Side Highway? This is a very bad night for pollsters no matter how it ends.
Bugg (ebf485) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:07 pm330. In Michigan, processing of ballots does not begin until Election Day or, in some places, the day before. A person can sign an affidavit to substitute an election day vote. Not so in Minnesota. In Minnesota, close to 100% of votes should be reported by noon Wednesday. Absentee ballots can arrive till November 10 and total is updated daily.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:09 pmWith MI (where I was born and raised), the big counties of Metro Detroit (Wayne, Oakland and Macomb) have very diverse regions. Even Wayne county (Detroit) has some areas that are white, affluent and presumably Trump-friendly.
Biden is massively unperforming Clinton in Wayne county at the moment, but only 28% of the vote is in there.
With 64% of the vote in, Oakland county is about the same as 2016.
In Macomb, with 43% in, Trump is 23 points ahead of his 2016 pace.
Again, it’s difficult to square these partial results with other places (like Minnesota) where the totals are more complete. Trump won Anoka county MN (outside Minneapolis) by 10 in 2016; he is only +1 there this year with 94% reporting.
As a very bad man once said, “We’ll see what happens.”
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:11 pmThat’s not clear yet, and neither of those two are pollsters…
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:12 pmIf Biden actually wins AZ, Trump must win PA plus an unexpected state like NV or MI
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:16 pmDave, I seriously doubt Michigan is in much more danger than Minnesota is. My revised assumption is it’ll come down to PA and AZ. If Trump wins both, he pulls out a squeaker. If Biden wins AZ (and one of the NE/ME 2d districts), he wins the squeaker of all time. If Biden wins both, as of 8:15 PM PDT that’s my notion of a landslide.
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:22 pmDecision Desk called Ohio for Trump.
Ouch.
It’s 2016 again.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:22 pmFox calls AZ for biden
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:23 pmKelly beats McSally
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:23 pmOhio is looking good, 5%+ improvement over Clinton, there are about a million votes outstanding, and almost all of them are from counties that Biden is winning 70/30. Also, the early votes in Ohio have not been fully counted.
However, I didn’t count on Ohio flipping, it is just another indicator of the entire electorate moved 5 towards the Dems, so that flips WIMIPAAZ, and NC will be close, plus NE’s district.
That will put it at 305-233 Biden, or 290-248, and I don’t much of a possibility that isn’t the final result.
What will Trump do with that? Whines for a couple months, beg that wouldn’t it be nice if “someone” would do “something” about the election being stolen…by people choosing to flush the turd. Maybe he gets verbose enough that the cabinet actually invokes the 25th Amendment keeping him from a pardon. But his sycophants are all hat and no cattle so its just a fart in the wind, and this 4 year disgrace just sort of peter’s out.
Trump is kicked out of the residence before Thanksgiving by Melania, because she has a loser clause in the prenup, and he has to live in a double-wide parked on the old tennis courts.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (1367c0) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:24 pmNo word on any Biden statement; Kelly Anne Conway (whom some people were under the impression had quit – maybe she took a position with the campaign) says Trump will have some kind of a statement later.
Michigan count going smoothly.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:24 pmKevin, for Trump one of those unexpected states, Biden has to win AZ and either the 2d Dist. of NE or the 2d Dist. of ME. If he wins AZ but loses both of the 2d districts it’s a tie.
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:25 pmWhoa, Fox News called Arizona for Biden. Maybe it’s not over yet.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:25 pmEssentially, it’s a best 2 out of 3 of WI, MI, and PA. Whomever wins any combination of two of those states takes the election. MI looking pretty decent for Trump and for James.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:27 pmIf Biden wins AZ, MI and WI, and Trump wins PA and everything else stays the same, it’s a tie. Unless at least one elector flips, the election is thrown into the House of Representatives.
It could also be a tie in the House contingent election. 25-25
And a tie in the Senate, which will be broken by Mike Pence, provided the vote takes place after the Senator(s) from Georgia are seated and before noon on January 20.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:32 pmEd from SFV:
Decision Desk says ALL THREE (WI, MI, PA) are going to Trump.
https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/
qdpsteve (8d496a) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:32 pmHow’s that landslide going?
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:34 pmI think it’s too early for AZ… as they haven’t started counting the election day votes.
However, I think AZ would be the closes race of all states.
whembly (c30c83) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:34 pmThey are showing that Trump is leading, the states are not called.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:34 pmThat’s not a call. They are going to be counting for days.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:36 pmRe: Arizona, there’s 25% of the vote remaining and Trump only needs to win 62% of that to win the state.
whembly (c30c83) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:37 pmNot great, Bob!
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:38 pmIt’s early for toss up states to be called, and some states can’t finish counting all the votes for a few days. It looks closer than makes sense to me, not because of the polls but because of how bad Trump is. I know the GOP has regressed a lot, but I believe the country hasn’t followed that far as re-electing Trump.
If Trump wins I have to make the Pierogis, and my wife will probably make them better so this is a big deal to me.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:38 pmBiden now leading the popular vote…
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:40 pm348. No, they say (the map does) that Trump is leading in all three states (and in Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Momtana, Idaho and Texas too) Biden leads in Arizona and Minnesota and Maine; the rest apparently called.
Doesn’t mean too much.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:40 pmI thought by now Dustin would be comparison shopping for knives at Ginsu.com.
And Patterico, it’s still not too late to buy space at that server farm in Mexico. 😉
qdpsteve (8d496a) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:41 pmIn MI, we may be seeing a reverse of what happened in OH, with the first results reported apparently skewed.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:43 pmThe Needle still has Georgia competitive (76% Trump) with the margine Biden +1.6 to Trump +4.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:45 pmBiden jumps into the lead in VA (bigly).
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:47 pmJeez man. What if you’re the one who is upset, fantasizing like that?
At any rate, I would be disappointed if Trump were winning, but he’s not. I am disappointed that Trump isn’t being blown out, but not surprised by that.
Sorry you’re so mad.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:50 pmFox calls Ohio for Trump.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:50 pmWith 2.2 million votes still to be counted in Texas and Biden aroud 500,000 behind, I’ll wait till Trump sings before I count Texas out.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:51 pmDustin, whichever box of cornflakes you received your psychology degree from, return it. You didn’t get your money’s worth.
qdpsteve (8d496a) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:53 pmFox calls Texas for Trump.
So much for that prediction!
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:55 pmI think that Biden is favored in NE2 and both ME districts
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:55 pmGOP will keep the Senate.
That’s good if Biden wins. Bad if Trump wins.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:57 pmFox calls Texas for Trump. Hemmer’s running his ‘what if’ map and even w/o PA, if Trump holds NC, and wins MI and WI or MN, he squeaks out the win. And the thing is, having lived in Western PA, eastern Ohio is the same difference– and the rural counties outside of Pgh/Allegheny County north to Erie will go Trump. My guess is Trump gets Term Two. By a predicted squeaker.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 8:57 pm356.Biden now leading the popular vote…
Ahhhhhh, the Hillary Hex. Keep it up, Davey. 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:01 pm359. The motto on Michigan’s state flag is, “Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.”
That translates to, “Whatever Ohio does, do the opposite.”
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:02 pmI understand they called Texas for Trump but there are a lot of uncounted ballots and virtually all are from the big cities. That is where the Democratic votes are.
DRJ (aede82) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:06 pmThree different news channels w/three different EC counts. They don’t know what they’re doing anymore flipping maps back and forth.
JVW had the right idea.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:07 pmI don’t really understand the hostility, my man! Cheer up, stop projecting so much. I didn’t say you were shopping for Ginsu knives, you said I was. I just noted I seem to occupy your mind a lot. I’m sure we had some disagreement you’re unhappy about that is behind this. I do not remember it. I’m sure I didn’t mean to come across as whatever you’ve built me up as.
Life goes on. Trump could win this thing or Biden could, and life goes on. We aren’t getting Venezuelan Socialism with President Biden.
What I had wanted was a massive blowout. A true repudiation the GOP would forever fear. That was unrealistic. Disappointment with our political system is nothing new.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:07 pmApparently there was a reporting error in NC. The Needle still gives Biden chances in NC (16%) and GA (22%).
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:08 pmFox calls Texas for Trump.
So much for that prediction!
All the more reason to hold out hope. Fox is Fox.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:08 pmThank you, DRJ @ 372.
nk (1d9030) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:10 pmThe needle now leans Biden in Georgia!
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:14 pmFox calls Iowa called for Trump.
This evening just demonstrates how weak Biden is as a challenger for what on paper should have been an easy win.
If he isn’t smiling yet, Putin is certainly beaming ear to ear.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:15 pmGO NEEDLE
LOL
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:16 pmFox calls Ernst winner in Iowa.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:16 pmIf you look at the large counties that are not close to 100% in GA, they are all Dem strongholds.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:18 pmPatterico, why is it bad if the GOP holds the Senate if Trump wins? Besides Trump winning. The House stays Dem so Trump can only appoint judges.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:19 pmFox is alone in calling AZ and there is reason to believe they’re wrong. 800,000 day-of votes which was heavily Trump, with less than 200,000 vote separation.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:24 pmBiden up by 11 in NE-2, with 84% reporting.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:24 pm380. According to Nate Cohen, the needle made Trump a prohibitive favorite in GA because the Florida upset overwhelmed the model. Now that so many other states have weighed in, the model has reverted to the mean.
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:25 pmThe GOP can rig the trial again when he’s impeached.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:27 pmAZ, either way, changes nothing. Georgia to Biden ends it. If DJT holds on in GA, which is the odds on situation now, it comes down to best of three in the rust belt. DJT looking VERY solid in WI and MI.
Biden is on the ropes.
I can’t believe it.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:29 pmBiden expected to leave his location and travel to a something Center to speak. He is expected to counsel patience and express optimism about Arizona.
64%. 64% ( a moving target) of the vote in in Wisconsin and Michigan.
An ABC analyst named Alex C something said before midnight, on WOR I think, that Biden is more (acceptable – what was the word he used?) than Hillary, but his Democratic Party is less acceptable to the voters than the Democratic Party of 2016. (paraphrase)
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:33 pm@338. He’s motorcading to give a middle of the night East Coast time “speech.”
WTF- shades of Hubert Humphrey.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:34 pm^@388.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:34 pmCNN just showing that the MI total includes nearly none of the early vote.
MI may shift like VA did (and OH, in the other direction).
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:34 pmFox pollster is trying to rationalize his group’s AZ call.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:36 pmAZ, either way, changes nothing. Georgia to Biden ends it.
How? Trump leads in PA, WI and MI, the three of which would be sufficient without either GA or AZ. It may be unlikely but “ends it” seems a bit abrupt.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:37 pmFox pollster is trying to rationalize his group’s AZ call.
He pretty much put his job on the line being so adamant. And the problem is, he has made a mistake. He has projected the prev-vote onto the same-day and drop-off vote which Trump’s people think they won handily by GOTV where the Biden folks relied on early voting efforts. HE may turn out to be right, but he has no valid basis for calling everyone else fools.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:39 pmIf the outstanding vote in AZ is estimated correctly, Trump would need to win the remainder by +26%.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:41 pm@394 – A clean sweep in the three rust belt states does give DJT the win. You are correct. I don’t see PA going to DJT, unless John Roberts reverses his previous ruling on PA counting basically any and all ballots they managed to stuff by mail.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:42 pmThere are 860,000 votes left to count, Trump’s people think they have that 3 to 1 from their exit surveys, and they only need to make up 200,000 votes. 540,000 to 320,000 would do it for them in AZ. Even McSally could win.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:42 pm@395. Yep. They’re all pretty much done. Three different news channels w/three different EC counts.
Are you not entertained??!! This system is an embarrassment.
Biden is giving a speech almost declaring victory—‘we’re feeling real good’… just like what Hillary’s people did. He thinks he’s going to win PA. Doubtful.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:44 pmFox calls Montana for Trump.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:47 pmLOL, Trump says Dems are trying to steal the election:
Damn those Poles!
Idiot.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:50 pmMcSally refuses to concede.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:52 pmunless John Roberts reverses his previous ruling on PA counting basically any and all ballots they managed to stuff by mail.
I think the full court might have a different view. But I *really* hope it doesn’t go there.
Also, GA has just under a million votes to count, with Biden 300,000 down. That’s about the same difficulty factor as AZ.
By my count, the currently Blue counties around Atlanta have an additional 180-200K votes to add to Biden’s margin. Columbus, Savannah and Augusta areas add maybe another 15K. That’s not enough. And I haven’t even looked at the Red counties, which might offer some rebuttal.
Of course if there is some notable difference in the type of folks whose ballots remain to be counted, this could be wrong. I may be making the same mistake I point out in AZ (projecting based on previous votes). And of course, ballots found in car trunks, or “lost” at the post office, could make the difference
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:55 pmMcSally refuses to concede.
No reason yet. “Count all the votes!” “Every vote matters!”
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:55 pmA lot of vote-splitting in MT, Daines barely leads Bullock.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:57 pmPoll-land is a communist country!
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:59 pm@404. You mean Fox rules wrong???? 😉
this is such a badly run system. No wonder Putin is so popular. 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 9:59 pm401. Google says polls.
Twitter says: Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process.
Trump also said: I will be making a statement tonight. A big WIN!
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:01 pmWhat can these two candidates and their political parties do to really fvck this mess up even more?
Why… call in lawyers, of course. 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:06 pmHe’s right. Holding the Senate is a big WIN!
And that insufferable freshman twit in NM-2 trails by 11% with 89% of the vote i
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:08 pmValencia County
R Donald Trump 13,455 66.30%
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:09 pmD Joe Biden 6,446 31.80%
Of course, in NM Bernadillo and Santa Fe Counties are 2/3rds of the vote.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:10 pmSupposedly, the first additional tranche of 100K AZ votes (out of 900K, or so) is going 64-36. If that rate holds, DJT (and McSally) win.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:13 pmThe just updated with near-final figures:
Valencia County
R Donald Trump 17,245 54.00%
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:13 pmD Joe Biden 14,051 44.00%
Fox calls NE2 for Biden.
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:21 pmI went to law school with Xochitl Torres Small. She was extremely sharp, very kind and humble, and pretty much universally beloved. Blows dumbf*ck Yvette Herrell out of the water, in my opinion. But I’m not a California expat, so what do I know.
Leviticus (b5758b) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:21 pmFox tool outlining how they will not call Michigan even after the first count is scheduled to end at Noon. I recall they refused to give MI to DJT for days and days, despite Michigan’s insistence that all votes had been counted in 2016.
Here we go again.
Ed from SFV (f64387) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:28 pmFrom fivethirtyeight’s livecast:
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:28 pmThe most complete results from SE Michigan are from suburban Oakland County, where I went to high school.
With 79% of the vote supposedly in, Biden is two points ahead of Clinton’s margin from 2016.
Unlike the other large counties, the Oakland total includes a significant percentage of absentee ballots.
Biden is still far off Clinton’s pace in Wayne and Macomb Counties, with only 37% and 47% reporting, and very few absentee ballots included.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:41 pmWith Biden winning NE-2 and probably AZ and NV, he can lose PA and win MI and WI and get to 270 (and he still has a chance to win PA and GA).
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:41 pmI think GA is done now.. Trump leads by 120K. Looking at all the D counties around Atlanta, most are reported as 100%, and have aggregate vote totals about 20% higher than 2016. Except Fulton which night have as many as 120,000 more votes if it also has that 20% bump. Everything else is marked in.
GA will go to Trump in the morning.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:44 pmIndeed, but Biden has some catching up to do in both MI and WI.
As VA and OH showed earlier, things can change quickly when there’s an imbalance of early and election-day ballots reported.
The Georgia needle is still slightly pro-Biden.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:46 pmCarville: Michigan A “Red Mirage,” “Put The Razor Blades And Ambien Back In The Medicine Cabinet”
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:50 pmI went to law school with Xochitl Torres Small.
That may be, but she got hanged with Biden & Co’s anti-fracking thing. The ads were relentless, then she ran some Dukakis-in-the-tank things with her climbing around on an oil rig, and shooting a rifle, which her opponent ran parts of and mocked.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:52 pmAll the energy producing states have gone for Trump. Safe bet he’ll take Pennsylvania as well.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:53 pmIt’s a GOP district which she won by a whisker in the 2018 wave. It wasn’t sustainable even without walking into the fracking buzz-saw.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:53 pmSafe bet he’ll take Pennsylvania as well.
Western PA, anyway. Also the rural folks who don’t hold with abortion or Sunday selling.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:54 pmCarville lives in Louisiana. It went Red for Trump.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:56 pm@427. Tell me about it. Born in Pgh., lived there; went to college up near Erie. They discovered oil up in Titusville. Ever heard of Quaker State Oil?! The place ooze it. Fracking is big business there now. Biden cut his throat on that.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 10:59 pmHonestly, clicked through CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, MSNBC and Fox and all six had six differet sets of EC numbers up at the same time. They’re so screwed up and their ‘projections’ really not reliable anymore.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:01 pmAP calls MT Senate a hold for Daines.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:03 pmIf John James can flip the Michigan seat, the Senate will finish +0 (assuming McSally actually loses).
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:04 pmTrump to speak in East Room to counter Biden’s Hubert Humphrey bluster.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:04 pm@430:
The fact that about 70% of ballots were cast before election day completely screws them up. Their vaunted exit polls are meaningless, and only polling procrastinators.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:06 pmMarkets were up today in anticipation of a Biden win. Now comes the chaos.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:09 pmI waited till after election day as I said I would. The nation is evenly divided. No blowout either way.
Kevin, I’m pretty sure the markets were strong in anticipation of a Trump win as the Yuan was down accordingly.Trump up 700k in PA with 2M votes left. That’s going to be absurd to make up. To be determined.
Either way. There’s a lot of Trump supporters and leftist supporters in this nation. We need to reconcile our differences rather than further balkanize. Stop with the hate.
P.S. Look at the demographic shifts. Interesting to say the least.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:19 pm421. There are about 390,000 votes outstanding in GA. Trump leads by 118,000. Biden would have to get 70% of the remaining votes to win. Maybe a stretch, but they’re all in heavily D areas, so possible. You may be right, but I wouldn’t be so confident about it. Either way it looks like a squeaker.
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:20 pm437. Per Jonathan Allen: “If Fulton and DeKalb came in at the same rate they have been and the percent yet to be reported is accurate, Biden would net 126K votes. Right now, he trails by 118K.”
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:25 pmTrump is speaking right now, undermining democracy, complaining about disenfranchising.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:26 pmHe should wait until all the votes are counted, like has been done in every election.
Trump presser at 2:15 AM EST.
Claims multiple wins as back door way to declare victory.
This. Is. Surreal.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:27 pmIn CA, Prop 16 (repeal ban on racial discrimination) is losing 54/45 with about 2/3’s of the vote reported.
Losing almost 2:1 in Orange County. The largest positive margins are 64/36 in SF and 60/40 in Alameda County (i.e. Oakland/Berkeley). Barely leading (52/48) in LA County.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:28 pm@439. It is almost as surreal as the Hubert Humphrey impersonation Biden did in a parking lot 90 minutes ago.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:29 pmThis is unreal.
But, still, wouldn’t kick Tiffany out of bed 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:30 pmThis lying POS doesn’t deserve to be president for one more minute.
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:30 pmOh my. CNN talking heads are having kittens on their set.
It’s so easy to jerk the chains of these media imbeciles who simply speculate and cannot even tabulate accurate EC numbers in their ‘projection’ rooms.
Love this guy. What. A. Showman.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:36 pm@444. Golly. Let’s impeach him. LOL
Sure he does. He was duly elected and may serve until January 20, 2021. Or if re-elected, serve term two.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:37 pm– Notorious Marxist and Biden lover, Ben Shapiro
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:38 pmAs someone who has a lot of practice predicting elections in California, I can’t predict the ballot props this year because of the way the vote reporting has gotten scrambled. I am not surprised the networks are having trouble.
Trump just asserted that the reason that the holdout states haven’t been called is a massive fraud on the election. That’s a perfect example of why he’s unfit for any public office.
aphrael (4c4719) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:38 pmWhat Ben Shapiro doesn’t realize is that Trump is *always* deeply irresponsible.
aphrael (4c4719) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:39 pm446. “Legally authorized” ≠ “deserve”
lurker (d8c5bc) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:41 pmIn PA, some counties have yet to even count a single mail in ballot, they were not allowed to open to envelope until today, and some focused on in person first, because of course you would.
There are more than 2 MILLION ballots still to be counted in PA. This is true across a majority of states. This has been true for decades. Military absentee ballots can be counted until Nov 16th in some states as long as the originating postmark was today. I just got a post card from Switzerland last Thursday, it took 25 days to get here, although an Australia Post letter only to 6, go figure.
So ease up Fatty McSpraytan, you’ll know if you won or lost soon enough. (it’s lost, because WIMIPAAZ)
Colonel Klink (Ret) (1367c0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:44 pmQuestion for never trumper posters here. Either trump wins or biden just barely wins in either case what makes you never trumpers think you will be welcomed back into an anti-free trade populist republican party? Libertarian conservatism is now a dirty word in the republican party.
asset (4a6ae3) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:44 pm76% of the PA vote is in and Trump is up 15% over Biden. There’s no way Biden is going to win Pennsylvania. And Trump is up in Michigan as well.
He’s likely gonna squeak out the win.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:47 pmWhat makes you think we want back in?
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:48 pmThe by-mail vote is something like 80% Dem.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:48 pm@451. No way Biden wins PA. Look at the numbers and percentages already counted. And all the energy producing states have gone to Trump. If you want to hold out hope for Joe, look to MI and WI., but the numbers aren’t in his favor there as of now either.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:50 pmBiggest Congressional upset: Young Kim in CA-39
Well, 86% of the vote in and Young Kim trails by 400 votes. This would be a flip if she wins.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:51 pm@455. That’s speculation; look at the numbers and percentages for PA already in. 76%. Trump’s up 15%No way Biden makes that up.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:52 pmGiven where things stand now, I think Biden pulls out NV, AZ, GA, WI, MI, and ME, but loses NC and PA, for a total of 290-248. Tillis wins, Gideon wins in the RCV round, Peters wins, so the Senate is 49-49-2 (with the 2 being the GA runoff).
aphrael (4c4719) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:53 pmThis may just end up a slow-motion 2016.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:54 pmI think Biden *can* pull out PA, even with the numbers you’re citing, but I think it’ll be hard and he won’t do it in the end.
aphrael (4c4719) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:54 pmTrump is up by 700k votes currently in PA, with 2,000,000 left to count. They’re legally cast ballots, millions of them.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (1367c0) — 11/3/2020 @ 11:58 pmI just crunched the numbers by hand myself.
If the %reported is right, Biden needs to win the uncounted by-mail vote by around 70-30.
In Philadelphia County, where there are roughly 400K ballots to count, Biden is winning almost 75-25.
Given the uncertainties about early vs. election day ballot numbers, I wouldn’t bet my life on the %reported being precise either.
Also: Associated Press calls AZ for Biden.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:06 am@461. Biden has lost all the energy producing states to Trump. PA will go Trump.
@462. PA says 1.4 million. Do the math and figure out how many of them- valid and not rejected- have to go to Biden too overcome a 15% lead of day-of-votes cast and still being tabulated. Just don’t see it happening. MI a& WI may be a different story.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:06 amWhen it comes to Pennsylvania:
Looking just at the two party vote, right now we have:
Trump 2956791 (55.7)
Biden 2283656 (43.0)
Total 5240447
Assuming there are 2000000 votes outstanding, in order to eke out a victory, Biden needs 3620224 votes. So he needs 1336508 of the 2000000 to be for him — or 66% of them.
This is … possible. It’s not *likely* though.
But let’s look at Michigan, instead.
Trump 2115236 (52.8)
Biden 1819973 (45.4)
Total 4004947
Assuming there are 1,636,000 votes outstanding, in order to eke out a victory, Biden needs 2,820,473 votes. That’s only 61% of the outstanding ballots. Depending on where they’re from, that five percent makes a substantial difference in likelihood.
aphrael (4c4719) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:07 amAs a NeverTrumper who returned to the party after the 2018 midterms after a 5-year hiatus, I’ll be working against the populist and anti-free market segments of my party, because it’s a loser approach.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:08 am@463. CNN and Fox showed the comparison; actually Bide didn’t perform as good as HRC did in Philly. And Philly is hardcore Dem territory.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:09 am@465. PA announced just a few minutes ago the outstanding uncounted mail in number is 1.4 million.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:10 amThis is true across a majority of states.
No, it is not. It is true of a few states. You can tell this by looking at historical numbers. and then comparing that to this year’s reports. I’m using a factor of 120%, as it’s been pretty close everywhere I’ve looked.
PA may have 2 million votes to go (120% of 2016), although their estimate is a bit less (1.86 million). Now, they aren’t all in Philly, although some are. Looking at the blue counties (all 7 of them), there are about 850,000 votes to come in. Extrapolating their margins to the “missing” votes, I get another 250,000 net Biden votes. Ignoring the fact that there are about 50 Red counties, all of which have as many missing votes, that is not nearly enough to make the difference. Trump will take PA handily.
Georgia, for example, is at about 120% of 2016. There aren’t tons of extra votes to be found. For all practical matters only 100K or so votes remain in Fulton County, and it also won’t be enough.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:10 amThe Uber/Lyft proposition has passed in CA.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:11 amThing is, this shouldn’t have been this close. Trump should have been an easy incumbent by all standards to knock off. It just shows how weak a candidate Biden actually is. If Putin isn’t smiling, he’s certainly beaming. Heart-beat-away-Kamala is the smiling Cheshire Cat… Joe turns 78 years old in just 16 days…
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:14 amKevin, in a normal election it might be reasonable to assume the uncounted votes are distributed like the ones that have been counted. In this case, the numbers in the current (in-person) blue county may be biased against Biden (if more of his voters voted by mail).
Basically VA followed this pattern earlier tonight.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:14 amI’m using the Percent Reported numbers in the NY Times, but also look at the county by county numbers. Unless the uncounted votes trend radically differently than those counted for some reason (and they might) Trump has an insurmountable lead. Biden would have to win 70% of the outstanding votes, many of which are in counties Trump is leading by +40 and worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:18 amYes, Dave, but there aren’t enough missing votes happily located. He’d have to pick up 3x the straight-line projections in “his” counties and Trump would have to lose votes in counties he’s leading (and led in 2016). I don’t see it.
He’s got to pick up 700,000 votes in the NY Times’ estimated 1.8 million (and now the state says 1.5 million, which doesn’t help).
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:21 amIt’s the flip side of AZ, where the uncounted votes are today’s GOTV and dropoff ballots, and Biden’s GOTV today was minimal.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:23 amBut if I had to bet, I’d say that Trump has to thread too many needles in the remaining states and Biden only has to win a few. I’m happy the Senate stays GOP and that the House is less Dem. For Trump I wish a quiet retirement (“Nice little business you’ve got there. How about a nice cup of STFU”). If he’s re-elected it will be necessary to impeach him again.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:26 amI see that CA may have avoided the most terrible of initiatives, but I guess there’s more to count. The idiot stem cell bonds passed.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:29 amYvette Herrell is declared winner of NM-2, a conservative district that includes the Permian Basin oil fields where fracking is the source of jobs and oil revenue. She’s a member of the Cherokee Nation, unlike a MA Senator I could name.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:33 amTo give an example of what I mean, look at Bucks County in PA.
Right now, with 55% in, it’s Trump +14. In 2016, it was Clinton +1. It’s a swing county.
Suppose it ends up Biden +1 this year, when 100% are counted.
That would mean a final margin of 4K votes for Biden, whereas right now the margin is 31K. So you have a swing of 35K votes from a single county where Trump is currently ahead.
If you look at the counties that have > 98% reporting, Biden is overperforming 2016 by 5% in the two blue ones (Dauphin and Lackawanna), and Trump almost exactly equal to his 2016 in the red ones, right down the line. And by “almost exactly equal” I mean within about 1%.
There are numerous counties with 50-70% reporting where Trump is well ahead (like Bucks), and that is almost certainly due to the vote being skewed. All the counties with ~100% have Trump with exactly the same margins as 2016. All the counties well below 100% reporting have a Trump swing, which gets larger the farther they are below 100%.
2016 was close, obviously, and Trump edged out a win. I’m not saying Biden wins for sure. But I don’t think the state is out of reach.
He stands to pick up 362K votes in Philadelphia county alone, if he hits the 2016 margin. And more if he exceeds it.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:41 amI think the stem cell measure is theoretically too close to call, although SINCE I CAN’T TELL WHAT PERCENTAGE OF EACH COUNTY HAS BEEN COUNTED IT’S SUPER HARD TO TELL. But if I were a betting man, I’d bet on it passing.
Similarly, I think Prop 15 (currently trailing) is theoretically too close to call, but the fact that it only cleared 40% in riverside and 42% in SB and ventura makes me think it’s not going to pull it out.
Prop 16 is *dead*. It’s unrecoverable at this point.
Prop 17 has passed cleanly.
Prop 18 is dead.
Prop 19 is *actually* too close to call. Prop 5 led by this much at one point and lost the lead as late absentees were counted.
Prop 20 is dead.
Prop 21 is dead.
Prop 22 has passed decisively.
Prop 23 is dead.
Prop 24 has passed.
Prop 25 is dead.
aphrael (4c4719) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:56 amIt’s a similar story if you look in WI.
In the counties with >98% reporting, Biden is at or above Clinton’s 2016 margin (e.g. Dane County/Madison: Biden +53 vs. Clinton +47), and Trump is behind his 2016 pace in a number of red counties, including populous Waukesha (+21 this year, +26.7 in 2016), Winnebago (+4 this year, +7 in 2016) and Ozaukee (+12 this year, +19 in 2016). Trump has relatively small (+3-5%) swings in very tiny rural counties without a lot of votes, but it looks like a wash at best in the fully reported red counties.
The counties with Trump ahead of his 2016 pace, or Biden underperforming Clinton, are precisely the ones like Milwaukee, Brown and Kenosa where there are still a lot of uncounted ballots.
WI looks pretty safe for Biden to me, if my interpretation of the pattern is correct.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:59 amAnd MI looks like a “red mirage” too.
I already mentioned Oakland County. With 85% in, Biden is 4 points ahead of Clinton’s pace.
Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) is a Dem stronghold, with >98%. Biden is 6 points ahead of Clinton’s pace.
Livingston County is suburban/rural, and a Trump county. With >98% reporting, Trump is 7.5% behind his 2016 margin.
In the other fully-reported red counties, Trump is running very close to his 2016 margins right down the line.
Trump’s numbers in Macomb County are coming down to earth.
I think Biden has a pretty good chance to carry Michigan when the remaining vote comes in. There’s no evidence he’s underperforming, and he’s getting non-negligible swings in fairly populous counties like Oakland and Washtenaw where the vote tally is more complete.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 1:12 amBiden pulls ahead in WI…
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 1:44 amIt was absentee ballots from the city of Milwaukee that closed the gap for Biden, just as Northern Virginia did earlier in the night in that state.
The absentees from the city of Detroit could well do the same in MI. If Biden can equal Clinton’s (very low – the reason she lost the state) margins in Wayne County, he would gain about 283,000 votes on Trump and take the lead in MI.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 1:53 amRemarkable (if it holds up) that Susan Collins is running 7 points ahead of Trump in Maine.
Peters is running slightly ahead of Biden in MI, and if I had to bet, he will be re-elected.
If the GOP hold the majority by one or two seats, Romney, Collins and Murkowski will effectively control the chamber. I still worry that the GOP will obstruct crucial anti-COVID measures.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:12 amAll in-person early and election day votes, and all mail ballots received *before* Election Day, have been tabulated in NV, and Biden’s lead has shrunk to a fraction of a percent (less than 8000 votes).
The Nevada authorities say there will be no further updates until Thursday.
Since only mail and provisional ballots are outstanding, the geeks at fivethirtyeight think Biden’s final margin may go up slightly.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:19 amIt looks like this morning that Biden is currently leading this morning. However, the votes to be counted are mostly mail in, absentee and that leaned heavy democrat. So if I were a betting man at this point I would say Biden would take it.
Can we all not agree that this is BS? In my mind as you vote that should immediately tallied and counted. To hold onto ballots and then release them later just invites fraud.
ah-non-ee-mouse (690acb) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:35 amBig tranche of Wayne County votes in MI, and Trump’s margin in Macomb County is with 1.5% of his 2016 margin now.
Still a lot of blue areas to be counted, Trump’s lead is down to 1.3% and Trump isn’t significantly beating his 2016 margins anywhere in the state.
Biden is going to win MI.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:37 am*within 1.5%
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:39 amNo. Free your mind from Trump’s lies.
What you suggest means either counting votes before Election Day, or disallowing any early or absentee voting.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:45 amForget Trump. Why do we have to wait all week for ballots to be counted?
ah-non-ee-mouse (690acb) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:51 amI do mean count votes before Election Day. If you vote that should become public knowledge. Your vote, not specifically who you voted for. Otherwise dirty pollsters have time rig election results.
Why did the founders say voting should happen on one day. Because it would be harder to manufacture results I would guess. They could have said lets vote over 2 weeks, but they didn’t because they knew votes could appear and disappear. Whereas when we vote on one day the votes go in a ballot box and are guarded until they are counted. That’s my 2 cents.
Dave, go to bed. We’re not going to know this thing for a few days.
ah-non-ee-mouse (690acb) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:55 amI believe the act of returning an absentee ballot is, in fact, public information. That’s how the media can report the party ID of early voters (in aggregate), and how parties can contact people who haven’t done so.
I was a poll-watcher once, and this information is accessible at the polling place (on the hard-printed voter roll). I suspect it’s also available electronically.
Likewise, the identity of people who vote in person on election day is also public record.
Free your mind from Trump’s lies.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:58 amWhat a mess, no resolution, only dug in harder.
J. W. Morris (6546db) — 11/4/2020 @ 3:59 amOne of the reasons for delay is that absentee ballots have to be scrutinized to prevent fraud, including verifying that the person did not vote in person, and to ensure the ballot is legally cast. States also check the signature against voter registration records to one degree or another.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:05 amYour comments have been very helpful, Dave. I think you are right about Biden winning Michigan. It looks like Biden will be President since he also seems to be winning Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
DRJ (aede82) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:20 amAt the moment I see the races this way:
GA: Small advantage projected for Biden in the remaining absentee ballots; race looks to likely to go to a recount.
AZ: Has been called by Fox and (the usually cautious) AP. Looks pretty solid for Biden, but little activity since the first dump of early ballots.
NV: Biden with small lead; only provisional and late-arriving mail ballots remain, which are expected to be Dem-leaning. Run-off seems possible.
WI: Biden now ahead by 20K votes; remaining by-mail votes look likely to favor Biden.
MI: Trump still (barely) leading, but uncounted vote distribution looks very favorable to Biden. Biden is beating Clinton’s numbers in fully-reported counties.
PA: Big Trump lead to overcome, but may follow the same pattern as VA, WI and MI. Trump is not beating his 2016 margins in fully-reported counties where there’s no skew due to mail votes. Biden is.
I would say GA and PA are toss-ups.
I think AZ, MI, NV and WI are going for Biden, which means he would be elected (by the narrowest of electoral vote margins) even if he loses GA and PA.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:25 amFWIW (not much) Texas still has substantial votes out in Fort Worth and Houston. Biden should do well there but he trails by almost 700,000 votes. He won’t get enough to win but Trump’s margin of victory should be under 500,000 votes. That is a dismal showing for a Republican in Texas.
Meanwhile, in the same election, even a bland candidate like Cornyn is winning by 1.1 million votes against a strong, well-financed opponent.
DRJ (aede82) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:28 amWith 88% reporting, Trump has now fallen below his 2016 margin in pivotal Macomb County (MI).
The way things are going, Biden should take the lead in MI pretty soon.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:31 amGood updates Dave.
I think Biden’s got it, but I think it’ll be a few days before that’s out there. That’s also barring something terrible from the White House, and frankly you can guarantee something terrible from the White House.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:38 amJust imagine if the democrats were led by the moderates. I don’t mean the primary outcome, but the real party. If it was not associated with the vandalism and the constant push to control how we live. The democratic party honestly deserves to lose almost as much as the republican party does. Everyone on the left is horrified Trump was much stronger than they wanted, but the truth is he wasn’t. The democrats are just very weak, barely able to beat the worst president in history, because they refuse to preside over bad times.
It would be great if conservatives on government power, in other words people who don’t want to control how others live, took the democratic party away from the kooks. People who smash up businesses, block traffic, or hate the country, should be outside the major parties.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:43 amAbout that landslide? And Joe Biden winning in Texas?
I’m happy to report that, in the Bluegrass State, in which Amy McGrath Henderson outspent Mitch McConnell $88 million to $55 million, Senator McConnell, with 95% of the votes counted, has won 58.2% to 37.8%. If those percentages hold up through the remaining ballots to be counted, Mrs Henderson will have lost worse than any of Mr McConnell’s previous opponents save one, the sacrificial lamb candidate Lois Combs Weinberg, in 2002.
The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:52 amI see Trump spending the next four years campaigning as the leader of the GOP. Several Republicans will run, again, opening the door to Trump being the nominee in 2024. If so, the GOP could be on the Trump train for the next 8 years.
DRJ (aede82) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:52 amDustin, I agree, but I don’t recall any national Democratic politician (I don’t include local ones simply because there are many more and I haven’t heard of most of them) endorsing violence or mayhem.
But you are right; it’s mind-boggling that someone as terrible as Donald Trump – who has utterly botched a public health crisis that will end up costing more American lives than WWII – is still able to get almost half the country to vote for him.
At the same time, Biden has largely observed the expected norms of decent conduct in this campaign, while Trump (as he’s done since his infamous escalator ride) has lied non-stop and without a hint of shame. It’s the same reason why Trump was able to defeat a dozen smarter and more ethical Republicans in 2016. Lying works; lying more and lying bigger works even better.
If Biden does pull this out, he’ll have a chance to lead by example, and I pray he does.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:02 amDustin wrote:
Moderates just don’t develop much excitement, do they?
The Democrats nominated a (purportedly) moderate candidate, but he had to swing far to the left to do it . . . and voters who are rightfully afraid of socialism remembered that.
Then he picked wild-eyed leftist Kamala Harris Emhoff as his running mate, and with his obvious health problems, people were rightly concerned that she would be president in fairly short order if Mr Biden won.
Mr Biden might still win: several states are still out. But I think that the Democrats overplayed their hand with all of the screams that the evil Donald Trump is a fascist authoritarian; if he were really a fascist authoritarian, how did the 2018 elections occur? How did he allow himself to be subjected to an election this year that he might lose?
The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:05 amGiven that the polls seem to have overestimated Biden’s strength in a number of states by at least a couple percent, it wouldn’t be all that shocking if he eked out MI and WI (where he had a larger pre-election polling lead) but came up short in PA (which the polls predicted would be closer).
Another observation: the polls missed not just in regard to Trump, but to relatively mainstream Republicans like Joni Ernst, Susan Collins and maybe Thom Tillis and John James. So I’m not sure the “shy Trump voter” theory really holds up as an explanation.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:14 amThe 2020 election was between a decent guy with horrible policies and an [insert slang term for the rectum here] with mostly good policies. I understand that most of the commentariat here and politically conservative Never Trumpers, but if you get what you want, and Mr Biden is elected, we’re going to have four, or perhaps eight, years of policies which you will absolutely hate.
Illegal immigration? Open the gates!
Federal government payment for abortions? Even the (claims to be) Catholic Joe Biden wants to do that now.
Your taxpayer dollars paying for ‘gender reassignment’ procedures, and the ‘transgendered’ being allowed to undeployably serve in the military? Yup, the Democrats have promised that, too.
Affirmative Action? Maybe, maybe!, the Supreme Court declares that unconstitutional, but it sure wouldn’t be with the help of a Biden Administration.
Forcing people to violate their religious principles or withdraw from public and economic life? Yup! The (supposedly) Catholic Mr Biden wants to force Catholic nuns to offer health care plans that cover contraception and abortion, and Catholic social service agencies to place foster children with homosexuals.
The Second Amendment? The Democrats would chip away at your rights as aggressively as they can.
The First Amendment? You’ve already seen Democratic Governors suspend the freedom of religion and freedom of peaceable assembly — though they seem to have no problem with nonpeaceable assembly — for our own good, of course. Your freedom of speech will be attacked as hate speech.
The ‘Green New Deal’? I hope that you have a place to plug in your Chevy Dolt at home, because if you do not, you’ll be sitting at the commercial charging station for over an hour at a time.
All of these things we will suffer just to get rid of one guy who’s an [insert slang term for the rectum here]. That’s not worth it!
The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:23 amBiden can lose PA and GA and still have 270, so it looks like he’ll eke it out, but if he wins those states, he’ll have the same number of electoral votes as Trump did in 2016.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:27 amSomeone is going to have to figure out how and why most of the pollsters were so wrong.
Of the straits, Trump’s seem the more dire to me. Sh!t-selling, sh!t-talking, and sh!t-stirring is his forte, but we’ll hold our noses and air out the place, you betcha. Think positive, it’s a bright, bright, sunshiny day.
nk (1d9030) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:32 amI would imagine a lot of Trump supporters lie to pollsters. Not much pollsters can do to get around that as long as the media and Democrats act as if any Trump supporter is a traitor.
Hoi Polloi (15cfac) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:37 amBecause those Republicans aren’t Trump and a Susan Collins voter won’t be called a traitor.
Hoi Polloi (15cfac) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:38 amYeah, about that…
But seriously.
In 2016, the national number was fairly close. That doesn’t appear to be the case this year. Although it’s hard to predict exactly where it will end up, it seems unlikely to be as close to the pre-election poll average.
Looking at the “glass half full” view of things, in 2016 a plurality of Americans rejected Donald Trump. In 2020, a majority has done so.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:42 amI think the pollsters this time did better than in any prior election that I remember. Their usual margin of error is from 7% to 9% in favor of Democrats.
nk (1d9030) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:45 amYou make my point for me.
The senate candidates I listed aren’t sociopathic pariahs like Trump. And yet the polls underestimated their support just as they did Trump’s.
The next “shy” Trump voter I meet will be the first.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:49 amNot so, Master Secretary!
They missed by less than 2% nationwide in 2016. And in 2012 they over-estimated Romney, not Obama, and by about twice as much.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:51 amIf there needs to be a Compromise of 2021, in the vein of the Compromise of 1877, who do you want for President and what legislation, EOs, etc are you willing to horse trade for that candidate?
urbanleftbehind (28ff7b) — 11/4/2020 @ 6:08 amRe Collins, Tillis, James, Coryn, Ernst could there have been the hedging/splitting ticket that pollsters erroneously attributed to Toomey and Rubio in 2016?
urbanleftbehind (28ff7b) — 11/4/2020 @ 6:11 amTicket splitting. Trump has no coattails except negative ones.
nk (1d9030) — 11/4/2020 @ 6:17 am@507. My thoughts exactly.
Marci (405d43) — 11/4/2020 @ 6:27 amHe stands to pick up 362K votes in Philadelphia county alone, if he hits the 2016 margin. And more if he exceeds it.
That would mean that EVERY LAST remaining ballot was marked for Biden. That would require the Chicago method.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 6:52 amHowever, Trump is fading in MI and WI. Even if he sweeps everything through PA, he cannot win without one of AZ, WI, MI. Or Nevada. He tops out at 267 with PA, GA and NC. (AK is a gimme.)
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 6:56 amI imagine every contested election will go the Democrats’ way, because that’s how it always goes.
Congrats Biden/Harris, and every other Dem. And congrats Xi.
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/4/2020 @ 6:57 amThis mess brought to you by the morons who cheered universal mail in voting.
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:01 amPeople voted by mail all over the state. While Philly favors Biden there, other places do not. We’ll know soon enough though. I agree that extrapolating 2020’s day-of votes is shaky, but so is extrapolating 2016’s votes.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:05 amThis mess brought to you by the morons who cheered early voting of any kind.
FIFY. Everyone should vote on election day with the same information. Do it electronically if you must. The people who put our entire financial system on the net can figure out how to do elections reliably. Co-opt every teller machine for those without other access.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:07 amThe Dems know how many votes they need in each of these elections, and now they’ll find them or create them. Tell me that doesn’t happen, and the fact that they win most all of these is just happenstance.
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:10 amIf there needs to be a Compromise of 2021, in the vein of the Compromise of 1877, who do you want for President and what legislation, EOs, etc are you willing to horse trade for that candidate?
Romney/Sanders for P/VP and put a limited abortion right in the Constitution for real.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:10 amLooking at the “glass half full” view of things, in 2016 a plurality of Americans rejected Donald Trump. In 2020, a majority has done so.
Tiresome then, tiresome now.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:12 amNice conspiracy theory. Got any evidence?
Time123 (7cca75) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:12 amSusan Collins voter won’t be called a traitor.
I do NOT understand why so-called Republicans think voting for a Democrat is good, while voting for a squishy Republican is bad. She may well be the sole electable Republican in the state.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:15 amThe only fraud will come from Trump’s corrupt criminal gangsters. How many of them went to prison from his last campaign? Half a dozen? More?
nk (1d9030) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:16 amNice conspiracy theory. Got any evidence?
Al Franken, Loretta Sanchez, JFK….
But don’t believe your lying eyes, especially the next few days.
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:18 amNice conspiracy theory. Got any evidence?
There is some history. Al Franken and Gary Locke to name two.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:19 amSo no evidence of fraud in this election. Just your normal conspiracy theories being held up by fear at things you don’t know and other conspiracy theories.
Time123 (80b471) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:20 amAmong the things about the locally-run election process is that there is always some fraud and none of it can be coordinated.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:21 am534 was directed at BnP, not Kevin. Kevin doens’t have a history of falsehoods and conspiracy theories.
Time123 (80b471) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:21 amThis was an actual batch of ballots dumped in Michigan this morning:
Biden 138,339
Trump 0
Legit or not? You tell me…
whembly (c30c83) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:24 amSo no evidence of fraud in this election. Just your normal conspiracy theories being held up by fear at things you don’t know and other conspiracy theories.
I’ll admit it’s not quite up there with Trump Russia collusion.
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:25 am#516 —
If we go for a compromise of 1877, the situation as it looks now (Biden President, GOP Senate) looks tolerable. If Trump leaves the country, we can also agree that his pardon of himself will not be challenged. Since Trump, in the end, is all about Trump, he could go for it.
Don’t look for Constitutional Amendments.
Appalled (1a17de) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:27 amI agree, Appalled.
And we know the dems will not be able to pack the Court. A tremendous win for the conservatives, perhaps the largest one long term.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:28 am@538, you’re right. You have *far* less evidence of voter fraud then there was of Trump conspiring with Russia.
Time123 (80b471) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:29 amI honestly wonder if there are really people who don’t think the collusion happened. It’s very amusing to imagine.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:29 amAP just reversed it’s Arizona call…
o.O
whembly (c30c83) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:31 amNo idea. Because I’m not easily persuaded by conspiracy theories I’d need more information. But YMMV.
138K votes is a lot to fake. How do you think they did and who do you think was behind it? The illuminati? The ‘deep state’? Satan worshiping pedos? Or will you just blame it on “Soros and the Elders of Zion”?
Time123 (80b471) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:32 amWe can improve the perception and opportunity for shenanigans by having each precinct report its results at the same time, same hour, probably on Friday, instead of this late night party where the networks try to shape the narrative (which seems really futile and odd).
Just announce results at noon Friday, central time. Perhaps mail-in ballots should have an earlier deadline, but I do think they should have arrived by election day for sure. And all ballots should have a space for a fingerprint. They could just include a little ink pad with mail-in ballots, require them on in-person as well.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:34 amTime, it’s a matter of distrust. If you distrust the system, you will be suspicious of everything. There’s lots of versions of this and hardly unique to Trump’s people. Consider what “Progressives” say about corporations, or renters about landlords.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:36 am138K votes is a lot to fake.
It’s generally accepted that Mayor Daley faked 1 million JFK votes in 1960.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:37 amKevin doens’t have a history of falsehoods and conspiracy theories.
No, I come at being wrong honestly.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:38 am@544 if that is true, that is damn near a statistical impossibility.
I hope the reporting is NOT true and that there’s a rational explanation for this reporting.
Otherwise, it stinks to high heavens.
whembly (c30c83) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:39 amDustin, I disagree. I prefer to have utterly discoordinated election processing. Some fraud, here or there, but maybe it averages out. A “drunkard’s walk.” It’s when they get together that I worry that the cheating will work in the same direction.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:41 amAnd to BNP’s credit, some of that distrust is legitimate. al Franken’s a great example.
But also the GOP provides plenty. all these ‘late massive shifts in votes’ are votes that came in weeks or days ago, and GOP state legislatures banned counting them before election day votes. This set things up for most democrat votes to be uncounted until the end, giving Trump the chance to tell everyone these late changes are some kind of horrible theft.
and imagine, if there IS democrat ballot stuffing, the setup is the perfect opportunity. That’s the idea. Muddy the waters. Can’t trust democracy. That’s very dangerous.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:41 amProbably a more realistic approach.
I would rather we just abandon the whole thing as it is, two factor authentication with your tax return, you get a hexadecimal receipt, so you can check your vote, all results given nationwide at the same time. An independent agency audits, tries to cheat to see if its possible, etc.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:44 amI thought about this. People want to know. Reporters would turn to indirect measures that would create inaccurate expectations. It would also leave an information vacuum that would be filled by more conspiracy theories ‘analysis’. I think more information is better.
Time123 (80b471) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:49 amI’m equally dismissive of left wing conspiracy theories. We just don’t have anyone on here posting about the post office throwing out thousands of ballots from dem leaning areas.
Time123 (80b471) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:51 amRe the polls:
1. Many people do not answer the phone if they don’t recognize the number so they never have a chance at a poll.
DRJ (aede82) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:52 am2. If they get a call about a poll, some decline when asked if they want to take a poll.
3. Most live in States where there is limited polling done because their State is not a battleground.
4. Even though there are a lot of polls during elections like this, there are only a limited number of polls taken in some States and the sample size is often relatively small — because polls cost money to conduct.
5. More phones (and don’t we all have more phones now than we did 10 years ago?) means less opportunity we will get a chance to take a poll. I recall taking at least 3 or 4 polls per election season but I haven’t gotten a call in 5 years about a poll.
But it’s not really information when the states flip. It’s just imagination. The price is bad if you imagine people are giving up on democracy. As to the practical point, I agree it’s hard to overcome human nature to be the first to report even fiction.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:56 amDustin, The best disinfectant is sunlight. Not telling anyone the results for days would leave liars like Trump more opportunity to spread misinformation. I’d rather see efforts put into quickly counting all the ballots.
Time123 (80b471) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:00 amWhat is McConnell, a potted plant? The guy shut down Garland on the flimsiest of pretenses.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:03 amSome States start counting early votes before election day so they are faster with results. The ones that wait to start counting early votes seem to have more chaos.
And if we are going to believe this election’s results are fake, why do we trust the 2016 results?
DRJ (aede82) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:04 amBiden 138,339
Trump 0
Legit or not? You tell me…
It can’t be legit. There are enough random errors in a sample that size that this is BS. It may be BS in the reporting.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:08 amI question the legitimacy of the person making the claim.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:09 amWe just don’t have anyone on here posting about the post office throwing out thousands of ballots from dem leaning areas.
Yeah, but give them a chance and they’ll go on about some such crap, blaming it on crooked voting machines from Diebold or some such.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:10 amWhat is McConnell, a potted plant? The guy shut down Garland on the flimsiest of pretenses.
And the most traditional of reasons.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:12 amtwo factor authentication with your tax return
What’s a tax return? There are lots of people who don’t file them, legally.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:13 amConsistency would be to wait for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia to finish counting all the votes. It’s not consistent to pick and choose only the states that might benefit a particular candidate.
Dana (6995e0) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:14 amWe just don’t have anyone on here posting about the post office throwing out thousands of ballots from dem leaning areas.
Please meet Mr Comment 531
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:17 amThe WaPo says that Trump leads in PA by 500,000 with 1.2 million left to count
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 8:45 am401. 408. You can still see the Votes cannot be cast after the Poles (corrected to Polls) tweet by clicking VIEW, or you can link directly to it:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323864823680126977
I think Trump must have deleted the original tweet with the wrong spelling that said Poles but he didn;t bother to remove the capitalization of the word Polls.
I don’t think Trump would have capitalized that word himself, so that must have been caused by a form of autocorrect.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/4/2020 @ 9:08 am@567 Biden needs to win the unaccounted ballots by over 60% to win PA…not sure that’s likely
Time123 (7cca75) — 11/4/2020 @ 9:23 am547. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 7:37 am
Nothing like a million. They created the minimum necessary to win.
This also happened in Texas – and Texas had no recount provision in the law.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/4/2020 @ 9:38 amThe Washington Post model (based on votes already cast and where the remainder to be counted are) is projecting Biden to take the lead pretty comfortably.
Scroll down to “Where the vote could end up”
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 9:47 am506. Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:14 am
I think Ann Coulter has all four winning. Only Cory Gardner in Colorado and Martha McSally in Arizona lose and Democrat Doug Jones loses in Alabama. Net gain for Republicans in the Senate: one seat.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/4/2020 @ 9:49 amThe Upshot (a couple hours old, I think):
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 9:54 amSammy,
Under your analysis, the net gain for the Democrats in the Senate would be one seat.
DRJ (aede82) — 11/4/2020 @ 9:54 amhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html
NYT has biden winning 78% of mail in votes.
Time123 (80b471) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:00 am“138,339 votes for Biden and none for Trump is outrageous! Fraud! What? Oh. Never mind.”
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:11 am–Emily Litella
Also, as was the pattern in WI and MI, Biden is meeting or exceeding Clinton’s margins in PA counties where the tabulation is complete.
Per fivethirtyeight and the NYT (these are all >98% reported):
Northampton: Biden +0.4 (was Clinton -4)
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:17 amDauphin: Biden +8 (was Clinton +2.9)
Lackawanna: Biden +8 (was Clinton +3.4)
Anti-ICE, anti-police Ted Wheeler defeats pro-violence, pro-Antifa candidate in Portland mayor race. Yay!
beer ‘n pretzels (042d67) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:19 amLeave it to the Trumpers to take a data entry error that briefly *lowered* Biden’s total, and the correction that fixed it, reverse the order of the screenshots so it looks like Biden’s total went up, and scream “Fraud!”
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:23 amVoting cannot be done reliably online as long as we have a secret ballot.
aphrael (4c4719) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:28 amSusan Collins says her opponent has “graciously conceded”.
Looks like Collins will get the last laugh on Trump, who said she wasn’t worth saving.
Dave (1bb933) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:31 amThat didn’t happen, but the mother of someone in New York sent in absentee ballot. It was trackable by bar code if inserted correctly. For two weeks it lay inside the Post Office and delivery to the Board of Elections was not reported. Finally, her son said she shold call thw Post Offce and it was found and delivered.
There were three envelopes. The first one was the one in which all the material was delivered in. This could be discarded. There was an envelope, which had to be mailed to the Board of Elections, and inside that envelope another envelope which needed to be signed on the outside and dated. Inside that inner envelope was where the ballot should be put. It contained the ballot and hid it from the people examining only the envelope how the vote was cast.
These votes will not be counted in New York City until Monday. Votes from people who eventually votes in person instead will be removed.
Some may have been examined a bit already (but not opened) At least two from the 11th Congressional District were cast by dead people. They were flagged by the Republican Party which was probably looking for Democrats over the age of 100, and then checking records, and there could be more.
This was not done by a political machine but by family members and possibly for some years..
https://nypost.com/2020/11/02/dead-people-caught-voting-in-nyc-elections-records-show
This race was expected to be close, but it’s not. Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis leads Congressman Max Rose by a large margin, just about equal to the number of absentee votes outstanding,. But he has not conceded.
She leads 136,382 to 99,224 (or 57.9% to 57.9% to 42.1%) with around 37,000 absentee ballots waiting to be counted. That means about 13.5% of the whole were cast absentee and accepted. Ballots can arrive until November 10, according to the New York Times chart.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/upshot/vote-counting-today-polls-election.html
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:41 amDRJ (aede82) — 11/4/2020 @ 9:54 am
No, John James is not the incumbent in Michigan, but defeats Democratic incumbent Gary Peters.I should apologize for not making that clear.
Sammy Finkelman (125d6f) — 11/4/2020 @ 10:46 amI agree.
So take your pick. I think efforts and laws can be enacted to promote secrecy, like FERPA and HIPAA, but it cannot be perfect.
An online election, I still say as part of your tax return, which should just be a simple, free online form (and everyone fills it out, income or not), can solve access and counting issues. Throw in a few census questions.
Dustin (4237e0) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:19 pmThe problem is inherent. The only ways we have to verify integrity of data online depend on identity.
aphrael (4c4719) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:23 pm> For two weeks it lay inside the Post Office and delivery to the Board of Elections was not reported
This is just absolutely wrong. The Post Office should treat ballots as highest priority mail.
aphrael (4c4719) — 11/4/2020 @ 12:24 pmState Boards of Elections have the option, in some cases based on state law, to choose what type of postage mail in ballots receive, some choose registered, some choose express, some choose bulk. If they choose the cheapest method, it gets treated equally, like all the other junk mail.
What?there should be is an election ballot classification that is paid for by the gubmint. Standardized, tracked and traced, etc. You know, like the states with full mail in elections have. If you allow for completely unplanned processes, then you’ll get unplanned processes. Heck, in some states each county can choose independently, that makes it fun.
But more freedom or something, small government, we don’t want them involved in setting standards for things like elections, that should be…uh…oh…Barb, the lady that works the counter at the BMV.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (1367c0) — 11/4/2020 @ 1:20 pmThe only true voting reform that would be right is to return to the way it was done at the founding of our great union: the franchise restricted to white male property owners.
The Dana in Kentucky (2e5280) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:03 pmVoting cannot be done reliably online as long as we have a secret ballot.
Oh, nonsense. There are countless ways of doing it while maintaining as much secrecy as your NUMBERED ballot.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:54 pmIt just cannot be done by bureaucratic drones. But in a world where I can have a real-time zero-cost encrypted video chat with people’s mobiles on 4 different continents, this is not a hard problem.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:57 pmBut more freedom or something, small government
Top down-organization makes wholesale cheating possible. Saddam’s elections were very efficient and quickly counted.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 4:59 pm[T]he Postal Service disclosed that more than 300,000 ballots nationwide could not be traced. Those ballots received entry bar code scans at processing facilities, but not exit scans. The agency said the likelihood of that many ballots being misplaced was very low; mail clerks had been ordered to sort ballots by hand in many locations, and items that were pulled out for expedited delivery were not given an exit scan.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/03/election-ballot-delays-usps/
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:04 pmBTW, the reason the stock market is booming is that the Senate stays Republican so no crazy new laws.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:07 pmI think it’s no more “stable genius”, Kevin.
nk (1d9030) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:16 pmKevin M:
once a digital ballot is sent into the cloud, how do we confirm that it has never been changed and is the same as the ballot that was sent?
This is *easy* to do if you are linked to your ballot somehow and you can check its internal representation at any time. But doing that would allow other people to find out how you voted.
Absent that kind of confirmation, there is no system that can be proven reliable.
Yes, the same general issue holds with paper ballots — how can you be sure the election offices don’t destroy your ballot and replace it with something else?
This is handled by ensuring a chain of custody for ballots and verifying that the unused ballots plus the used ballots equal in number the printed ballots.
There’s no analog for that at all, digitally.
I’m speaking here as a software guy who has given a lot of thought to this problem. Security depends on verification which depends on identity. Take identity out of the equation and there’s no way to demonstrate security.
aphrael (4c4719) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:25 pmSince whembly put this disinformation in two threads, I think it’s incumbent on me to observe here as well as the other thread that it was disinformation — especially since it’s being repeated by the President of the United States.
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/4/2020 @ 5:37 pm