Patterico's Pontifications

11/2/2020

Trump’s Worries Before Election Day

Filed under: General — Dana @ 5:48 pm



[guest post by Dana]

Here’s an interesting look at Trump gearing up for election day, and his shift between combativeness and grievance. But this is what stood out to me:

Seldom far from Mr. Trump’s thoughts, however, is the possibility of defeat—and the potential consequences of being ejected from the White House. In unguarded moments, Mr. Trump has for weeks told advisers that he expects to face intensifying scrutiny from prosecutors if he loses. He is concerned not only about existing investigations in New York, but the potential for new federal probes as well, according to people who have spoken with him.

Consider:

Trump has famously survived one impeachment, two divorces, six bankruptcies, twenty-six accusations of sexual misconduct, and an estimated four thousand lawsuits. Few people have evaded consequences more cunningly. That run of good luck may well end, perhaps brutally, if Joe Biden wins. Even if Trump wins, grave legal and financial threats will loom over his second term…Trump’s legal expenses alone are likely to be daunting. (By the time Bill Clinton left the White House, he’d racked up more than ten million dollars in legal fees.) And Trump’s finances are already under growing strain. During the next four years, according to a stunning recent Times report, Trump—whether reëlected or not—must meet payment deadlines for more than three hundred million dollars in loans that he has personally guaranteed; much of this debt is owed to such foreign creditors as Deutsche Bank. Unless he can refinance with the lenders, he will be on the hook.

So, maybe underneath it all, he wasn’t just thinking about losing to Joe Biden here. Maybe he was thinking about something terrible finally catching up to him, and that something could be very damaging, long-lasting, and with a potentially disastrous outcome for the President…or former president:

“I shouldn’t joke because you know what? Running against the worst candidate in the history of presidential politics puts pressure on me. Could you imagine if I lose? My whole life, what am I going to do? I’m going to say ‘I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics.’ I’m not going to feel so good.”

“Maybe I’ll have to leave the country? I don’t know.” Trump added.

–Dana

52 Responses to “Trump’s Worries Before Election Day”

  1. Own it, Mr. President.

    Dana (6995e0)

  2. Own it, Mr. President.

    And he cast down the pieces of silver in the temple, and departed, and went and hanged himself.

    Dave (1bb933)

  3. “Folks! Tomorrow is the beginning of a new day!” – Joe Biden, Pittburgh, PA 11/2/20

    O.M.G.

    Once a plagiarist, always a plagiarist:

    “After all, tomorrow is another day!’ – Scarlett O’Hara [Vivien Leigh] ‘Gone With The Wind’ 1939

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  4. Well the big guy did speak with a handful of teenage gaga groupies.

    mg (8cbc69)

  5. @4. Aretha Franklin, Whitney Houston and Eartha Kitt weren’t available.

    Because, you know… they’re dead.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  6. In unguarded moments, Mr. Trump has for weeks told advisers that he expects to face intensifying scrutiny from prosecutors if he loses.

    This is basically common sense. We’ve eagerly embraced the idea of punishing people we disagree with politically. The stronger and more signigicant the disagreement the stronger the desire for punishment.

    frosty (f27e97)

  7. There are a whole string of sayings that apply to Trump involving things like “Don’t do the crime…” and “His mouth was writing checks…”. I would try to feel sorry for him, but I can’t. I hope the consequences of his actions catch up to him and he can’t buy his way out for once.

    Nic (896fdf)

  8. We’ve eagerly embraced the idea of punishing people we disagree with politically. The stronger and more signigicant the disagreement the stronger the desire for punishment.

    You seem to *assume* that this is nothing more than wanting to punish Trump because people disagree w/him politically. This willfully ignores the possibility that his actual actions might be deemed illegal. So rather than want to see him held just as accountable as the next guy, you want to dismiss any analyzation or investigation into his actions as being the result of people wanting to punish him because they disagree with him. Conversely, because you like him, he must be innocent.

    It’s pretty funny though when you consider just how many people from all walks of life that Trump has said he wants to see prosecuted because they…looked at him cross-eyed.

    Dana (6995e0)

  9. Just how do you ‘shutdown the virus,’ Joe?

    C’mon, man… =eyeroll=

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  10. It seems to be a point of pride for frosty, and people like him, to prove that The Great Leader is always right:

    “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK?”
    – Donald J. Trump (January 23, 2016)

    Dave (1bb933)

  11. Heh! If Mr. frosty is the one who tells me what I want, it makes it easy for him to explain how it is wrong for me to want it. I don’t know what rhetoricians call it* but it is a tactic I have gotten inured to on the innernuts, not just from Mr. frosty, and not just about Trump, but from a lot of other people about a lot of other things.

    *or care

    nk (1d9030)

  12. Been playing with the map at FiveThirtyEight. Besides being game over if Trump loses TX, if he loses PA he has to run the table of all the maybe-win states (NC, FL, AZ, OH, IA, GA) then take one of MI, WI or MN, none of which look likely. Nevada probably won’t help either candidate.

    If Trump loses TX, or PA & one of (NC, FL, AZ, OH, IA, GA) he might as well call it a day.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)


  13. Mayor Ted Wheeler
    @tedwheeler
    ·
    Given the heightened concerns about potential violence, particularly from white supremist organizations and the divisive rhetoric from Washington, D.C., the need for coordination and partnership takes on statewide significance. Oregon is likely to be a flashpoint.
    __ _

    Relax, I didn’t vote for the guy you hate
    @jtLOL

    You were driven from your home by Antifa
    __ _

    Name cannot be blank
    @TKDSayan
    ·
    Everyday left wingers: if Trump wins be prepared to burn it all down.

    Incompetent mayors: we are anticipating right wing violence.
    __ _

    Vincent Nitti
    @Vinnie4893
    ·
    Large cities are not boarding up storefronts and calling up the National Guard because they are worried Trump supporters are going to riot. It’s for the peaceful protestors.

    __

    harkin (7fb4c9)

  14. Reading one side of the argument, it’s all defensive, angry, and stupid. Every sin is angrily ignored, which is just weird.

    Cheer up y’all.

    Dustin (4237e0)

  15. Leave the country! Who would want him? He is no use to putin or kim jung un. Trump becomes an illegal alien!

    asset (86630f)

  16. The KGB has always made it a point of pride that it moves heaven and earth to get its burned assets out. Furthermore, it is an American tradition that Presidents receive their bribes after they leave office. (By last report, the Obamas are now ten times richer than they were on January 20, 2016.)

    nk (1d9030)

  17. DCSCA @3-
    Repeating your posts?

    Rip Murdock (676dac)

  18. @8, @10

    Both of you are reading a lot into @6. There’s assuming while accusing me of assuming. There’s an always and an emphasized any.

    I get that you don’t like my comment but since we’re using such broad language are you implying the flip side, i.e. that there is no part of this that’s emotional?

    And would you look at that. Instead of assuming what you were saying I asked.

    frosty (f27e97)

  19. We’ve eagerly embraced the idea of punishing people we disagree with politically. The stronger and more signigicant the disagreement the stronger the desire for punishment.

    My dislike of Trump has much less to do with political disagreement than with the fact that he is an awful human being.

    On the other hand, there are quite a few people who at one time clearly recognized his awfulness, but have chosen to ignore it or pretend they never saw it, because of political agreement.

    Radegunda (20775b)

  20. Four men clutched Haxo Angmark. The Forest Goblin confronted him, playing the skaranyi. “A week ago you reached to divest me of my mask; you have now achieved your perverse aim.”

    “But he is a criminal!” cried Angmark. “He is notorious, infamous!”

    “What are his misdeeds?” sang the Forest Goblin.

    “He has murdered, betrayed; he has wrecked ships; he has tortured, blackmailed, robbed, sold children into slavery; he has –”

    The Forest Goblin stopped him. “Your religious differences are of no importance. We can vouch however for your present crimes!”

    The hosteler stepped forward. He sang fiercely, “This insolent Moon Moth sought nine days ago to preempt my choicest mount!”

    Another man pressed close. He wore a Universal Expert, and sang, “I am a Master Mask-maker; I recognize this Moon Moth out-worlder! Only recently he entered my shop and derided my skill! He deserves death!”

    “Death to the out-world monster!” cried the crowd. A wave of men surged forward. Steel blades rose and fell, the deed was done.

    Jack Vance, The Moon Moth

    nk (1d9030)

  21. Could someone please point me to who Patterico is supporting for LA County DA?
    I believe he’s supporting Lacey but not sure.

    qdpsteve (8d496a)

  22. 21. I assume he’s supporting Lacey, since IIRC he complained about somebody (Ted Lieu?) withdrawing his endorsement of Lacey.

    lurker (d8c5bc)

  23. lurker, thanks.
    IMHO Ted Lieu has easily the most punchable face of any congresscritter anywhere in the USA.

    qdpsteve (8d496a)

  24. Trump has every reason to fear being thrown out of office. He’s deeply in debt. I read one article that said he has $460 million in personally guaranteed loans, mostly to foreign creditors like Deutsche Bank and who knows who else (Russian, Chinese, Saudi Arabian oligarchs). The balloon notes on those loans will come due within two years.

    He’s also under investigation and not just in New York for tax, bank and wire fraud. These are state crimes, for which no president can pardon him. A President can only issue pardons for federal crimes.

    All the more reason for him to declare victory on Tuesday night and litigate the counting of mail-in votes after Nov. 3. That will cost him and the RNC a whole lot of money, wasted on a futile strategy. Except he can’t just declare victory and sue.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/if-trump-declares-victory-election-night-axios-nope.html

    The electoral college will convene on Dec. 14, and the several states are required to report their final vote tallies by Dec. 8 so the electors can be chosen. Then Congress will certify the electoral votes on Jan. 6. At that point, the election will be decided.

    This is the system, this is the process, and there’s nothing Trump can do about it. Oh, he can muck it up, drag it through the courts at tremendous expense, whine and complain about it, make accusations of voter fraud and illegitimacy, claim the Democrats stole the election, but it won’t matter. The states will report their vote tallies on Dec. 8, the electoral college will convene on Dec. 14, and the newly elected Congress will certify the electoral vote on Jan. 6. And then it will be over, whether Trump concedes or not.

    So, of course he’s fretting his future, but he has no one to blame but himself.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/11/02/biden_will_win_republicans_should_understand_why_144578.html

    This is not 2016. Then people voted not so much for Trump but against Clinton. This year the tables are turned. People are not so much voting for Biden but against Trump. Over 93 million ballots have already been cast. Think about that. Count them all. It will be an arduous task to be sure, given the tens of millions of mail-in ballots due to the pandemic, but Nov. 3 to Dec. 8 is plenty of timto count every legitimate ballot cast.

    Of course, it will be a struggle, especially if Trump takes the vote counts to court or his fanatical cultists disrupt late mail deliveries and storm county boards. It could get ugly. At his final rally, Trump was blowing dog whistles warning about (calling for) violence if the vote is not to his liking.

    This is not 2000. Trump wants courts and judges, not the people and the states, to decide the election, which is why he packed the judiciary. But I really don’t think the courts will want to get involved in this mess. I doubt the Supreme Court will agree to hear a case, not under Chief Justice Roberts. He cares more about the integrity of the Court than he does about the outcome of an election.

    Bush v Gore was one thing. Boise, representing Gore, showed up wearing a suit and sneakers. At the Supreme Court, are you kidding me? Talk about bad fashion. No wonder he lost the case. But it should be noted that in no vote total in Florida did Gore’s exceed Bush’s.

    There will be no Trump v Biden. Even if there were, who would represent Trump, Giuliani or Barr? I seriously doubt the Supreme Court wants to hear arguments from either of them.

    This will be a turbulent month. Buckle your seat belts, because it’s going to be a bumpy ride. However, in the end, the states will report their vote tallies by Dec. 8, the electoral college will convene on Dec. 14, and the Congress will certify the electoral votes on Jan. 6. That is is the system, that is the process, and it will be followed. The American people will not accept anything else.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  25. 12. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 11/2/2020 @ 7:07 pm

    Been playing with the map at FiveThirtyEight. Besides being game over if Trump loses TX, if he loses PA he has to run the table of all the maybe-win states (NC, FL, AZ, OH, IA, GA) then take one of MI, WI or MN, none of which look likely. Nevada probably won’t help either candidate.

    If Trump loses TX, or PA & one of (NC, FL, AZ, OH, IA, GA) he might as well call it a day.

    PA is one of those you’ll find out the last. It’s not like the year 2000 with not too many uncounted absentee ballots. Mail votes will reported periodically, not all at once but it will still go slower.

    It;s simple to calculate:

    Trump got 306 Electoral votes in 2016 before faithless electors, and the apportionment is the same.

    Minus Michigan (expected to lose, although the Republican senate andidate, running ahead of Trup may plll off a “surprise” upset) leaves 290.

    Minus Pennsylvania leaves 270.

    Minus the 2nd district of Nebraska leaves 269. A tie, It may be enough to win if Republicans do not lose any House seats, or the wrong ones.

    Minus the 2nd district of Maine leaves 268. He loses.

    But he’s likely to lose Wisconsin, This leaves 258. And Arizona. The leaves 247. Add back Pennsylvania and he has 267. Now he needs both the 2nd district of Maine and 2nd district of Nebraska to tie.

    But he could lose North Carolina.

    Back to 258. And he could win Minnesota – the My Pillow guy is confident and maybe there’s been a different campaign. Back to 268.

    He still needs one more Electoral vote.

    What if he loses North Carolina, carried Minnesota, and loses Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and everything else says the same as it was in 2016? He’s got 268 then, even with 2nd district of Maine and the 2nd district of Nebraska.

    NV was won by Hillary Clinton (by such a large margin anyway) because of banked votes which probably hasn’t taken place this time.

    Late deciding voters are siding with Trump but not by the kind of margin they did in 2016.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  26. DCSCA @3-
    Repeating your posts?

    Since you can count on one hand the number of ideas he’s capable of expressing, it’s kind of inevitable…

    Dave (1bb933)

  27. I made amistake before. I thought North Carolina had 11 Electoral votes. It has 15. Anyhing without North Carolina has 4 less for Trump.

    Voting laws and vote counting: (Note: The NYT column about provisional votes says no, both if a provisional vote in not necessary and if a person who asked for an absentee ballot can’t vote at all on Election Day. Thid was printed on page A22 and A23 of the Saturday, October 31, 2020 New York Times.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/27/upshot/election-results-timing.html

    See also (if you can)

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/election-night-what-to-watch-for-in-key-races-11604323800?mod=djemalertNEWS

    [NC] . Election officials will start counting mailed ballots, which must be postmarked by Election Day and received by Nov. 12, as soon as they arrive.

    And also:

    https://nypost.com/2020/11/02/how-2020-races-will-be-called-and-why-winners-may-be-delayed

    North Carolina accepts late mail-in ballots postmarked on Nov. 2, but the state Board of Elections expects to have 97 percent of votes reported on election night.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  28. It wasn;t only Florida 2000 that was declared late:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/01/us/politics/trump-ballot-counting-election.html

    On election night in 2018, it wasn’t clear who had won governor’s races in Florida, Georgia and Wisconsin; Senate races in Arizona and Florida; and a slew of House races in California, Georgia, New York, Texas and Utah….

    Few people are likely to remember that it took two weeks to call Missouri for John McCain in 2008, because the election didn’t hinge on the outcome. When the state finally was called on Nov. 19, by a margin of about 0.1 percent, The New York Times reported simply, “The Missouri secretary of state’s office had been waiting for some jurisdictions to examine thousands of provisional ballots and certify and mail in their totals.”

    In 2012, it took four days to call Florida for President Barack Obama — and again it was not particularly memorable, because he had already won re-election without the state. While there were plenty of recriminations about how long the counting took, the results themselves were not disputed.

    Four years later, Michigan counted ballots for more than two weeks after the Nov. 8 election before delivering Mr. Trump one of his most cherished victories.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  29. @17/@26. ‘Here’s the deal’- same gaffe; different thread.

    Or for you ‘folks’– “C’mon, man”.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  30. People love trump ;but more people will shrug their shoulders hold their nose and vote for biden. Remember democrats have kept the green party off the ballot in many swing states.

    asset (d23388)

  31. 15.Leave the country! Who would want him?

    Greenland? Heard it’s for sale. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  32. Patterico posted a fulsome endorsement of Lacey before the primary.

    Dave (1bb933)

  33. 30.People love trump ;but more people will shrug their shoulders hold their nose and vote for biden.

    Misery seeks company. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  34. @26. Reaganoptics, Reaganaurics, Reaganomics, Davey.

    Less is more.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  35. Leave the country! Who would want him? He is no use to putin or kim jung un. Trump becomes an illegal alien!

    Cuba. Venezuela. Assuming he brings the cash.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  36. Patterico posted a fulsome endorsement of Lacey before the primary.

    I very much hope she wins. That some white male carpetbagger can claim to care more about blacks than Lacey is one of those cynical things you see in a James Ellroy or Walter Mosley novel.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  37. You guys realize that, without Covid, Trump would be cruising to re-election. Biden’s going to owe some serious favors to Chairman Xi. We can talk all we want about how the Russians tried to influence 2016, but this year the “influence” was front and center.

    As a thought experiment, suppose that Covid did just happen, but that the Chinese allowed it to spread intentionally so that they were not the only ones hurt. What would a competent administration do? OF course, it would be bad to owe them bigly.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  38. If Trump wins all of his gimme states, plus TX, AZ, GA, FL, OH, IA and GA

    and

    Biden wins NV, CO, WI, MI, MN, his gimmes (CA, IL, OR, WA, VA, HI and the entire northeast except PA and ME 2nd)

    so that the only votes not called are Pennsylvania’s and the contest stands at 260-258:

    FiveThirtyEight has Biden’s odds in PA at only 55%, as his model is conditional on previous results.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  39. Another interesting thing about the 538 map. ME 2nd is a key. Biden is slightly favored. If Trump takes it, all bets are off. Even more so NE 2nd, which a Biden loss would signal an upset.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  40. Fivethirtyeight has finalized their projections, which will no longer be updated further.

    They have Biden at 89% chance of winning, with 348 – 190 the average electoral vote outcome, and Biden winning the popular vote 53.4%/45.4%.

    For comparison, in 2016 they had Clinton with a 71.4% chance, 302 – 235 average electoral votes, and Clinton +3.6% in the popular vote.

    The betting odds, according to realclearpolitics, are less favorable for Biden (63.6% to 35.4%). If fivethirtyeight is right, every dollar wagered on Biden at those odds will return $1.40, on average, and every dollar wagered on Trump at those odds will return $0.29 on average.(*)

    The chance of Dem Senate control (which includes the outcome of the presidential race if the seats split evenly) is 75%/25%.

    Dem House control chance is 97%, with a net gain of a handful of seats.

    (*) Which still leaves you better off than a lot of people who lent him money…

    Dave (1bb933)

  41. @39 Omaha is Not Liberal and half the people in Sarpy county are military. If NE 2 goes blue it’s a wave.

    Nic (896fdf)

  42. Trump only won NE-2 by 2.2% in 2016, running against the second most unpopular politician in America.

    On the other hand he won ME-2 (where Biden is slightly favored this year) by more than ten points.

    Dave (1bb933)

  43. I know that some believe that Trump has been using the WH to further his avarice, but I find that hard to believe for this this reason: He would have to be dumber than even I think he is to have kicked the hornet’s nest so hard. Most greedy people want to be greedy out of the limelight. I think Trump’s motivations were sincere, for a weird value of “sincere.” He actually thought he was being of service.

    That he realizes that he’s going to be fighting subpoenas, if not warrants, for the rest of his days should indicate that he wasn’t doing this to make a buck (of course, if a buck happened to fall his way … but I digress). For the same reason that corporations have no politics, a person simply out to make money would have found hundreds of better ways.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  44. On the other hand he won ME-2 (where Biden is slightly favored this year) by more than ten points.

    This might be why he’s in such difficulty and has to run the table. Don’t think he can, but it’s not impossible. If he loses TX, FL, NC or OH I think it’s over even if the gods want him to win.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  45. Fivethirtyeight has finalized their projections, which will no longer be updated further.

    Yes, but if you play with their map, their prediction is complex and will alter itself as probabilities collapse.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  46. @42 I don’t think you can predict Nebraska based on Maine because they aren’t the same kind of Republicans. Nebraska is generally very much politically as well as geographically in line with S. Dakota and Kansas most of the time and IIRC there hasn’t been a recent big influx of new people, especially after Conagra moved out, so you are talking minority black and latino populations with a heavy majority of old time Nebraskan families + some military.

    Nic (896fdf)

  47. Yes, but if you play with their map, their prediction is complex and will alter itself as probabilities collapse.

    Yes, I understand that…

    Dave (1bb933)

  48. Nic, my point was that NE-2 was quite close last time, and could be expected to shift a couple points given that every place else that was close (and some places like ME-2 that weren’t) has shifted.

    Dave (1bb933)

  49. @48 Statistically it looks probable, but I don’t think it actually happens without a Blue Wave. Omaha is basically full of pro-life Catholics who generally would find Trump personally distasteful, but are often one-issue anti-abortion voters. I’m basing my assessment on personal experience, though, rather than numbers, so I certainly could be wrong.

    Nic (896fdf)

  50. 9. DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/2/2020 @ 6:53 pm

    Just how do you ‘shutdown the virus,’ Joe?

    C’mon, man… =eyeroll=

    Double the number of drive in testing sites.

    Ship more PPE. (!!)

    And have a plan.

    Assume the “scientists” (plural = consensus) know what they are doing and what we should not be doing or are not ready to do, so no looking for more innovation, or acceleration of what has been researched.

    That’s basically it.

    AND

    Then we’ll be like Australia.

    Except that that’s not true.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  51. Many polls account for and include people who have already voted.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)

  52. Gawain’s Ghost (b25cd1) — 11/2/2020 @ 9:50 pm

    There will be no Trump v Biden. Even if there were, who would represent Trump, Giuliani or Barr?

    That’s a silly idea. I
    thought you would say there There will be no Trump v Biden because the election won’t be that close.

    Barr, of course, won’t represent him, because he’s Attorney General, holding an official government position. Giuliani won’t because he’s not that good a lawyer, or that kind. He wasn’t involved in the impeachment trial, although he did consider himself a lawyer for Trump, (off stage) and says he was led into Ukraine originally because something was presented to him as a defense for Trump.

    Trump would find somebody and maybe a person would agree in order to have Trump presnt moe reasonable arguments.

    I seriously doubt the Supreme Court wants to hear arguments from either of them.

    The Supreme Court has its own bar.

    Sammy Finkelman (125d6f)


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