Report: Trump Gaining Among Younger Black And Hispanic Voters
[guest post by Dana]
Interesting stuff from FiveThirtyEight:
Take white women. They backed Trump over Clinton in 2016 but were split pretty evenly between the two parties in the 2018 midterms. And now they favor Biden by 6 points in UCLA Nationscape polling, which would be around a 15-point swing toward the Democrats compared to what CCES found for the 2016 race. Trump has also taken a major hit among older white voters. In 2016, he won white voters age 45 or older by more than 20 points, but according to UCLA Nationscape polling, he now leads by only 4 points.
Trump isn’t losing ground among all white voters, though. White men, for instance, look likely to back Trump by around 20 points again. And Trump is also making inroads with college-educated white voters. Trump lost this group by more than 10 points in 2016, and Republican House and Senate candidates lost it by a similar margin in 2018, but Trump may be running closer to even among them now. As FiveThirtyEight’s Perry Bacon Jr. recently noted, many college-educated white voters are Republican-leaning, especially south of the Mason-Dixon line. The question will be whether Trump can attract support from this group nationally, as he’s already essentially got a lock on many Southern states (although maybe not as many Southern states as he’d like). Trump is currently polling at 49 percent among white, college-educated voters in UCLA Nationscape’s polling, and if he stays there, that could help him hold on to battleground states he carried in 2016, such as Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, where college-educated white voters are more likely to prefer the GOP.
Trump has also gained real ground among nonwhite voters. To be clear, he still trails Biden considerably with these groups, but in UCLA Nationscape’s polling over the past month, he was down by 39 points with these voters, a double-digit improvement from his 53-point deficit in 2016.
While older Black voters look as if they’ll vote for Biden by margins similar to Clinton’s in 2016, Trump’s support among young Black voters (18 to 44) has jumped from around 10 percent in 2016 to 21 percent in UCLA Nationscape’s polling. Black voters remain an overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning constituency, but a notable reduction in their support could still be a problem for Biden.
Young Blacks & Hispanics aren’t following their elders’ lead:
Notably, young Black voters don’t seem to feel as negatively about Trump as older Black Americans do. For instance, an early-July African American Research Collaborative poll of battleground states found that 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-old Black adults agreed that although they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. Conversely, just 10 percent of those 60 and older said the same.
It’s a similar story with younger Hispanic Americans, a group where Trump has also made gains. According to UCLA Nationscape’s polling, Trump is attracting 35 percent of Hispanic voters under age 45, up from the 22 percent who backed him four years ago in the CCES data.
The final presidential debate will happen this Thursday. The election is in 16 days.
–Dana
Good morning.
Dana (292df6) — 10/19/2020 @ 9:54 amAnd in the latest news from weirdsville, the Biden campaign has announced a “lid” until after the Thursday debate. No public appearances, campaign events, or interviews between now and then.
WTF, with only two weeks to go?
B.A. DuBois (8ed1cc) — 10/19/2020 @ 10:06 amI can’t make sense of the demographics, especially the college-educated segment, especially in light of Trump’s racist history. I checked out a poll last week and there was a 57-point gap between high school and college-educated voters.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 10/19/2020 @ 10:30 amI do notice at RCP that Biden’s lead is shrinking in FL and PA. Biden doesn’t need FL to win but he sure as hell needs PA.
but lets focus on quanon,
https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/19/violent-attacks-on-trump-supporters-spike-as-election-day-draws-near/
bolivar de gris (7404b5) — 10/19/2020 @ 10:41 amPaul Montagu (77c694) — 10/19/2020 @ 10:30 am
There are a couple of options there.
First, it’s possible Trump isn’t perceived to be as racist by blacks and hispanics as he is by cnn hosts. Democrats have long assumed that hispanics would vote like blacks have historically but this is a risky bet. They’ve also assumed blacks would continue to vote like they historically have. Also a risky bet.
Second, it’s possible Biden, who has a long history with racism as pointed out by Harris in the primaries, isn’t perceived by blacks and hispanics to be a better option.
Third, it’s possible blacks and hispanics in general don’t put the same priority on racism as cnn hosts.
It’s going to be ugly if blacks and hispanics tilt the election to Trump.
frosty (f27e97) — 10/19/2020 @ 10:48 amThis is somewhat surprising, but makes sense when considering that black and Hispanic communities are typically more socially conservative than white communities. Assuming that’s a contributing factor, the story here is perhaps less about younger members of those communities being drawn to Trump and more about them being repelled by the outside voice of the most ardent leftists in the Democratic coalition.
(Not That) Bill O'Reilly (6bb12a) — 10/19/2020 @ 10:50 amDana, those images are mostly illegible.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:00 amOne, you don’t need “cnn hosts” to know that Trump has a long history of racism, frosty. But I do say you need FoxNews hosts to hide, obscure and deflect his racism.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:02 amTwo, Kamala did attack Biden on race, specifically the 1994 crime bill, yet apparently he’s not racist enough for her to turn him down for the VP slot. It’s not clear to me how having a black woman on the ticket is going to lessen his support among blacks.
Three, it’s just one poll, so I’d rather be skeptical about a survey that doesn’t make sense to me, at least until there are others that affirm or contradict.
the Biden campaign has announced a “lid” until after the Thursday debate.
To a boomer like me, a “lid” was something else. Then again, maybe Biden needs to be really stoned to deal with Trump again.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:03 amPaul–
It’s probably about jobs. I have heard older blacks from Alabama saying nice things about how George Wallace’s state government always had jobs available for black men.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:05 amI guess more and more of those young black voters simply “ain’t black,” to paraphrase Biden.
Hoi Polloi (15cfac) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:06 amHis opponent is campaigning for him.
Non-stop.
Dave (1bb933) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:11 amArizona plus the 2nd CD in Maine or Nebraska gets Biden to 270 w/o PA.
Assuming Biden wins MI and WI and one CD2, Trump needs ALL of the following:
Arizona
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
South Carolina
Texas
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Iowa, with only 6 EV, is unlikely to be decisive.
Dave (1bb933) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:20 amDitto.
Hm, let me see what I can do.
Dana (292df6) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:24 amAs the saying goes, never interfere with an enemy when he is making a mistake, and Trump is incapable of committing anything but mistakes at this point.
(Not That) Bill O'Reilly (6bb12a) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:28 amPaul Montagu (77c694) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:02 am
To quote Biden, come on man! It’s not about what I think. It’s about what blacks and hispanics think.
You’ve just describe Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, and a slew of other post-MLK civil rights activists to a tee. Again, it’s possible, blacks and hispanics are starting to see through that.
Always a wise choice.
frosty (f27e97) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:33 amI think younger people are probably more susceptible to the Big Lie that “I’ve done more for blacks than anybody with the possible (but probably not) exception of Abraham Lincoln.”
Trump talks, thinks and acts like a teenager, so it’s not surprising that some real teenagers can relate to him.
Dave (1bb933) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:34 amYou’re probably right, Kevin. The job market was pretty good.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:36 amDave, I’ve been looking at the race through the 270towin lens. The consensus option has Biden at 290 electoral votes right now, so the easiest pathway to victory for Trump (if you can call it easy) is for him to win all the toss-ups (IA, OH, NC, GA and FL) and then he needs to peel away at least 21 EVs from the light blue states. If Trump wins PA, then all he needs after that is any other light-blue state or congressional district.
However, if Biden wins the states where he has a current RCP average lead, then he could get 356 EVs. Biden needs to not tank the upcoming debate.
@15
The problem with this sentiment is that this is a base election.
Trump excels while he’s campaigning at airport hangers.
whembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:36 amIf you’re counting on young voters to win an election, you’re going to be disappointed.
Davethulhu (af68c6) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:41 amNo–it’s a turnout election. They’re not the same thing. Suburban housewives aren’t Biden’s base, but they’re already turning out for him in droves.
(Not That) Bill O'Reilly (6bb12a) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:48 am2. B.A. DuBois (8ed1cc) — 10/19/2020 @ 10:06 am
Debate prep.
And Biden is afraid he might get asked some questions he doesn’t know how to answer.
Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:53 am10. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:05 am
Starting with what term?
Always?
Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:57 amPaul Montagu,
It looks like Trump has an uphill climb in PA.
The Wall Street Journal thinks unions will determine the outcome:
Interestingly, the union representing firefighters and paramedics in Philadelphia endorsed Trump.
Dana (292df6) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:01 pm‘At the 1988 Republican National Convention, Donald Trump was asked by Larry King on CNN: “You might be classified as an Eastern Republican, Rockefeller Republican. Fair?”, to which Trump replied: “I guess you can say that”. When Trump was considering to run against Andrew Cuomo for Governor of New York, Trump was dubbed as a “Conservative Rockefeller Republican”.During his 2016 presidential campaign, Trump was described as both a modern-day Rockefeller Republican (by some conservative writers) and as the heir to the Goldwaterite opposition to the Rockefeller Republicans.’ -source, wikiRockefellerRepublicans.
Glorious.
____
the Biden campaign has announced a “lid” until after the Thursday debate.
About as much time as it took for FDR to respond to Pearl Harbor, eh Joe? That should be enough time to prepare an answer about Hunter’s laptop emails, too. As w/all things fragile and old, it takes longer and longer to get them oiled, juiced up and cranked to get started.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:03 pmTrump’s support among young Black voters (18 to 44) has jumped from around 10 percent in 2016 to 21 percent
Social media campaigning, and pushback against defunding the police and bad schools.
Younger Hispaanic
By their studious silence, the Democratic campaign has made amnesty and otheer immigration matters anon-issue.
And Trump is also making inroads with college-educated white voters Pushback against wokeism.
And maybe some of the anti-Trump attacks are over the top.
Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:05 pmDave (1bb933) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:34 am
Are his poll numbers with whites in the same age bracket tracking the same changes? Or are you saying that only black and hispanic younger people are probably more susceptible to the Big Lie?
frosty (f27e97) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:06 pm“What has Biden done for us? He had 47 years,” said Greg Polosky, 62, who sat in his truck scratching lottery tickets on a recent afternoon before a shift at Liberty Wire Johnstown, a steel mill.”
He did you the favor of moving out of the commonwealth; leaving Scranton, Pennsylvania for Delaware before you were born, 67 years ago.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:09 pmThat worked out in Alabama, but aggressive (though I suspect unreciprocated for national offices) hiring of black workers in the state government paid little returns beyond Jim Rhodes and Jim Thompson. Having this army to wield in primary contests led to the RINO ification of Ohio and Illinois.
urbanleftbehind (feb514) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:09 pmThere’s this BIG LIE about Biden having been in office for 47 years. It’s 44 years plus 3 years of a pension that he’s been on the federal payroll.
This “47 years” just keeps on getting repeated.
Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:10 pmOr maybe it’s not those young black folks being susceptible to a lie; maybe they just don’t like Biden.
Hoi Polloi (15cfac) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:16 pmIt’s not that big of a deal. 44 years, 47 – what exactly has he done in that time? Besides collected a government paycheck that had somehow made him worth about $9 million.
Hoi Polloi (15cfac) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:19 pmMaybe the younger B and Bs see the forest – Trump stays, perhaps the movement fizzles. It could be a worse scenario to have a narrow Buden victory, quick Harris ascension, loss of the House & 60 R senators in 2022, and younger more cagey Trump-like candidate in 2024. Also the separate Black and Browns are to some degree competing to see which group is the greater suck-up/teachers pet- in that case if the race amongst all voters starts to turn Trump’s way, you could see 35% black 45% hispanic support.
urbanleftbehind (feb514) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:19 pm@2. WTF, with only two weeks to go?
Scooby-Dewey-do.
‘The little man on top of the wedding cake.’ – Alice Roosevelt Longworth
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:19 pmObviously that lie is aimed at black people, and younger people may not have the historical context to realize how brazenly absurd it is.
I don’t think many of his white supporters are voting for him primarily because they believe he’s done more for blacks than anybody with the possible exception (but probably not) of Abraham Lincoln. He has different lies for them.
Dave (1bb933) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:24 pm“About as much time as it took for FDR to respond to Pearl Harbor”
Maybe my humor filter is accidentally turned on, the bombs and torpedoes dropped on Sunday, FDR declared war on Monday.
Winston was even quicker.
harkin (7fb4c9) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:51 pm_
What hit Dewey in 1948 was the sudden, abrupt, end of inflation.
Sammy Finkelman (4eddd7) — 10/19/2020 @ 12:52 pmOuch.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/oct/19/no-russian-conspiracy-biden-laptop-scandal-dni-rat/
Whatever you may think of Ratcliffe… he’s accusing Adam Schiff that he’s full of schiff with his Russian disinformation spiel.
whembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 1:26 pmLOL who cares what he says Whembly? The amount of people in the Trump administration who have protected Trump and Putin is staggering.
Did you hear Fox News passed on the laptop ‘scandal’ because they didn’t think it was ethical? Sounds like a pretty shameful little story.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 1:35 pmRatcliffe is a political shill masquerading as DNI. The FBI has a different take.
And, yes, I take the word of an anonymous “congressional source” over an unqualified hack like Ratcliffe.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 10/19/2020 @ 1:45 pm@38 @39 It’s amazing that ya’ll take the word from the likes of Adam Schiff…who’s been disproven in almost every step of the way.
And you guys think *I’m* the political hack?
SMDH
whembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 1:51 pm@40
….a congressional source.
You mean… Adam Schiff?
whembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 1:55 pmIt would be if I did. I don’t promote those guys, ever.
I haven’t called you a hack. You just called me one.
this projection BS is very trumpy.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 1:55 pmThat’s your guess, not mine.
Paul Montagu (77c694) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:01 pmwhembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 1:51 pm
Amazing isn’t the right word. You are being generous. They would probably also take the word of Clapper who lied to Congress but who recently claimed that the laptop info is classic Soviet tradecraft.
The interesting thing is so far, no one with the Biden campaign has denied the authenticity of the emails.
frosty (f27e97) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:04 pmIf you’re promoting this crap, you probably know it’s Russian propaganda and don’t care.
All this projection and tap dancing will make you sweat south of siberia.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:06 pm@45 I know I’m being generous… and you’re right about your other points.
You’d think, even if true, the Biden campaign would deny this vigorously to at the very least muddy the waters up, but they’re not even doing that!
What this means, is that the Bidens were/are doing the exact same things that the anti-Trumpers are accusing of the Trump family.
whembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:11 pm@44
Oh…so, I’m supposed to give more credence to anonymous sources, rather that someone who’s in position to know who is staking his name and credibility?
No. I’m not going to do that.
The media has lost every ounce of credibility when they justify their stories based on anonymous sources.
whembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:13 pmSay what you will about Joe Biden, he is a believer in the United States and the American ideal. He’s not going to work with Putin against our democracy just to rub his own ego, and he would expect his supporters to pretend they don’t notice how wrong that is.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:13 pmNah. Don’t even get into it. Who cares what democrat or republican hacks like your boy Radcliff or your other boy Schiff say. You’re the only one bringing that up. Ignore it. They should take up none of your energy.
Common sense: Trump colluded with Russia last time. We know Russia is still doing it. They are doing it all over the world. They have been using Rudy. This last second BS from Rudy might be from Russia and is not something honest people should pay attention to.
I do think the investigation into who helped trump betray us should be exhaustive and intense, and those who committed the offenses should be given harsh sentences to deter more of this problem.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:16 pmwhembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:11 pm
That’s basically the game the Post is playing. If they released it all at once it would be much easier for the Biden camp to deal with.
Releasing info in stages makes it hard for the Biden camp to muddy the waters without risking getting caught in a lie.
frosty (f27e97) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:20 pmRepublicans getting desperate are now setting fire to mail in boxes in minority areas to destroy votes (baldwin park ca.) since their phony mail in ballot boxes to suppress votes didn’t work.
asset (d829eb) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:28 pm@51 frosty (f27e97) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:20 pm
That makes complete sense.
Makes it harder to have a cogent response strategy when you don’t know when/what shoe will drop next.
whembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:28 pmGreat Trump ad!
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:28 pmGreat Trump ad!
I feel bad for the handful of kids in that chorus who didn’t have fake Olympic medals ceremoniously draped around their necks. What do you suppose they did wrong?
JVW (ee64e4) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:48 pmhe New York Post has a column by Moranda evine and an editorial that seems to contain an explanation of th origin of this laptop, or rather the files, because the FBI has the original laptop and (it sounds like) the first hard drive the files were copied onto.
On Friday, April 12, 2019 a man who said his name was Hunter Biden arrived, just before closing time, at a Mac computer repair shop in Wilmington, Delaware carrying three “liquid damaged” computers. I don’t know who is being quoted.
The owner said one was ruined beyond repair.
He said the second one had only a fried keyboard and he gave him a replacement keyboard.
He said the third one, a Macbook, was salvageable. Hunter leaves behind the third computer, and contact details, and signs a work order to repair it.
The owner sucessfully retrieves the files and puts them on his server.
He calls Hunter and asks him to bring in a spare external hard drive for him to put the files on, and pay $85.
Hunter arrives , again at closing time, with his external hard drive, and leaves it there.
The owner makes frequent calls to Hunter to come up and pick up his hard drive, pay $75 and also return ad return the spare keyboard and cord he gave him.
Radio silence.
After 90 days the laptop legally passes into the hands f the computer repair person.
In August 2019 the computer repairman hears reports in the news about Hunter and Burisma. He searches the files for the word Burisma.
Bingo.
In December with impeachment heating up he contacts the FBI, ON December 9, two FBO agents pick up the original laptop and the external drive on which the repairman intended to give Hunter his files.
They have to keep calling him back because the FBI tech doesn’t know how to deal with MAcs.
The repairman contacts Giuliani on August 27, 2020. He’s contacted other people before from time to time, including congressional committees and nobody seems interested.
Two days later he Fed Ex’s a copy of the files to Giuliani;’s lawyer. They determine it is genuine.
Steve Bannon is brought in in September to help them understand what it says about China. Bannon later tells the New York Post about this cache of files.
On Sunday October 11, 2020 Giuliani gives the New York Post a hard drive with a copy of the files.
Sammy Finkelman (1df645) — 10/19/2020 @ 2:53 pmOh well if Steve Bannon and Rudy’s guy say it’s legit, I apologize. Had no idea it was so well vetted.
LOL
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:01 pmAlways?
The Jim Crow Democrats were not so stupid as to crush blacks beneath their heels. On the one hand was the continuous oppression and affronts to dignity, but they wanted blacks employed. Employed, and particularly married employed, people don’t want to risk what they have for some uncertain gain. So there were always jobs at the state. Not management or professional jobs, of course….
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:05 pmFrom Trump’s stump speech today. Every day Trump says something that should get him impeached. He gets away with it because he has supporters who would defend him no matter what.
I guess I am not that surprised Team D is losing minority voters. I don’t know what Team D is accomplishing for them, any more than Team R is doing for me. It would be better if we just scrapped these parties and created several new ones.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:07 pmEXCLUSIVE: Fox News Passed on Hunter Biden Laptop Story Over Credibility Concerns
Mediaite has learned that Fox News was first approached by Rudy Giuliani to report on a tranche of files alleged to have come from Hunter Biden’s unclaimed laptop left at a Delaware computer repair shop, but that the news division chose not to run the story unless or until the sourcing and veracity of the emails could be properly vetted.
…….
……[A]ccording to two sources familiar with the matter, the lack of authentication of Hunter Biden’s alleged laptop, combined with established concerns about Giuliani as a reliable source and his desire for unvetted publication, led the network’s news division to pass. Fox News declined to comment on this story.
Some of Fox News’ top news anchors and reporters have distanced themselves from the story. During an on-air report that largely focused on how social media platforms handled this story, Bret Baier said, “Let’s say, just not sugarcoat it. The whole thing is sketchy.”
“You couldn’t write this script in 19 days from an election, but we are digging into where this computer is and the emails and the authenticity of it,” he added.
Chris Wallace also called the story “suspicious” and said, “I can understand the concern about this story. It is completely unverified and frankly, Rudy Giuliani is not the most reliable source anymore. I hate to say that, but it’s just true.”
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:07 pm…….
On Sunday night, the New York Times reported that the New York Post had a difficult time finding a reporter to put their byline on the story amidst internal concerns about its dubious sourcing. The Times reported that the staff writer who mostly wrote the story, Bruce Golding, refused put his name on the report because he doubted its credibility. Post editors then “pressed staff members to add their bylines to the story — and at least one aside from Mr. Golding refused,” according to the Times report, which cited two unnamed Post journalists. A Post spokeswoman had no comment on how the article was written or edited.
……..
The story’s bylines eventually went to Emma-Jo Morris, a former associate producer on Fox News show Hannity, who joined the Post as an editor this year and had yet to publish a story with her byline, and Gabrielle Fonrouge, a Post reporter since 2014. According to the Times, Fonrouge only learned her name was on the story after it was published.
……..
Great Trump ad!
Say what you will about Putin, but not only does he have the world’s absolute best national anthem, but he leads a rising Nation. We have no leaders and no center anymore, nor are we rising.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:14 pmRip, that makes you wonder about people who buy this stuff.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:16 pm@59
Dude, he is specifically saying that he does NOT do this. Seriously, how desperate can you get?
whembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:16 pmTrue, Kevin. Putin is a leader who believes in his nation (and not the ideals I believe in). I’d say he’s a murderer. But Trump is no Putin. He is in it for Trump. No great leader, dictator or elected, is like that.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:17 pmhahahahahaha
yeah I’m so desperate as well as a hack buddy!
lol
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:18 pmBut you are right in one thing. If Trump could actually mount that ad, it would be a great one. Russia could do far worse than Putin, and often has. We cannot do far worse than Trump. I am not supposed to think that I could do a better job than the President, but I do. Is that vain of me?
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:18 pm@65 yes, you are a hack when you are outright lying.
Do you want to be know as a liar on this forum?
whembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:20 pmI’d say he’s a murderer.
“Now, who’s naive, Kay?”
Trump would not have people killed, because he would be able to get away with it. Too incompetent and his minions would write a book about it. But not because he’s too decent.
Russia has a world of problems, but the difference between now and any time previously in living memory has to be self-evident. Maybe it took a ruthless man to get them there. Yeltsin may have killed no one, but not only was he venal, the thugs that ran the economy killed plenty.
Russia is a different place, with a different history, and they probably consider themselves lucky to have someone like Putin at the top.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:25 pmwhembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:20 pm
I’m starting to think we’re seeing an attempt at a Kaufman/Cohen style performance.
frosty (f27e97) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:39 pmYahoo News/YouGov poll: The tide turns against Trump as Biden surges to his largest-ever lead among likely voters
……
The survey, which was conducted from Oct. 16 to 18, shows that a majority of likely voters (51 percent) now say they are voting for the Democratic nominee, while just 40 percent say they are voting for Trump. Biden’s lead, which is identical among registered voters, has grown by 3 points since last week’s Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
……
…..[T]he main reason Trump appears to have fallen even further behind Biden in recent days is that coronavirus cases are peaking just as the campaign is coming to a close. On Friday, new daily cases cleared 70,000 nationwide for the first time since July; hospitalizations are increasing in 39 states, and are at or near their all-time peak in 16 states.
…….
…….Biden’s existing advantage over Trump on the question of who would do a better job handling COVID-19 — the top issue of 2020 — has nearly tripled from 7 points two weeks ago (45 percent to 38 percent) to 19 points today (52 percent to 33 percent). …..
…….
Key demographic groups are moving away from Trump in response. Right now, the president is losing independents, 39 percent to 37 percent; he won them by 4 points in 2016. He is losing suburban voters by 14 points (50 percent to 36 percent); he also won them by 4 points in 2016. Trump’s current leads among white voters (7 points) and seniors (3 points) are less than half of what they were four years ago (20 points and 7 points, respectively). Nine percent of 2016 Trump voters now say they are voting for Biden; just 4 percent of 2016 Hillary Clinton voters say they are voting for Trump.
…….
…….Last week, 17 percent of likely voters said they had already voted; this week, that percentage has more than doubled, to 38 percent. Given the inherent lag of mail balloting and recent nature of most of these votes — 75 percent of early voters say they voted during the past week — such numbers suggest that the early vote tally could soon hit an unprecedented 60 million.
……Yahoo News and YouGov estimate that among the ballots already cast, Biden leads Trump, 71 percent to 25 percent. A majority (52 percent) of Biden voters say they have already voted, with 43 percent choosing to mail their ballot and 9 percent choosing to vote early in person. In contrast, just 24 percent of Trump voters have cast their ballots so far: 17 percent by mail, 7 percent in person. Half of Trump voters say they will wait until Election Day to vote in person, versus just 16 percent of Biden voters.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:42 pm……..
Donie O’Sullivan [CNN]
@donie
Spent the past two weekends with QAnon believers in Arizona and California.
It’s crazy but it’s serious and it’s dangerous.
__ _
I did not vote for him.
harkin (7fb4c9) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:58 pm@jLOL
·
Are they the ones rioting in Portland every night?
_
Off-topic: Does anyone else have the same attitude towards Trump saying that everyone else needs to be locked up?
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 4:23 pmKevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 4:23 pm
Considering no one has been locked up, including blm/a rioters, I’d probaby agree with the attitude I’m guessing you’ve got. It sounds like a chicken in every pot promise and I’m not seeing any chickens or pots.
frosty (f27e97) — 10/19/2020 @ 4:33 pmfirst you say Trump bragging about groping women is OK because that means consent. you will go to any length to defend Trump if you are defending sexual assault.
Today Trump brags about how he can just call up favors, abusing his office. He was recently impeached (and caught dead to rights guilty) for doing this.
your defend amounts to another lame ‘oh Trump was warning us that this is bad’ but that’s simply not what he said. Presidents joking about how industry should pay him tons of cash, when his campaign is broke, on the eve of an election, is totally wrong. If Obama or Biden did it, you’d suddenly see the light. With Trump, anyone who just quotes Trump is a ‘liar’.
It’s because of guys like you that I voted for Biden instead of just not voting at all. Biden is no one I care for, but this constant obsessive defense of Trump must be crushed, if it is still possible.
Presidents should not hypothetically say they can grab any woman anywhere they want. They should not say they could hypothetically grab cash from all industries due to their power.
Mendacious.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 4:38 pmEven his crazed fans could probably do better. At least in their heads they are serving their country.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 4:39 pmThe Lincoln Project’s latest:
Girl in the Mirror
Dave (1bb933) — 10/19/2020 @ 4:39 pmwhembly (c30c83) — 10/19/2020 @ 3:20 pm
Here’s an example of the Kaufman/Cohen thing I was talking about.
You’re supposed to forget:
by the time you get to
Whether its hypothethical, a joke, or real, isn’t the point of that comment.
frosty (f27e97) — 10/19/2020 @ 5:02 pmGreat ad, Dave. I’m sure some wince at RBG but she had an amazing career and definitely made a mark on the world.
If Obama or Bush had started speaking to reporters like that one day, we’d all be convinced it was severe mental illness.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 5:03 pmNah.
Trump was impeached for the way he abuses his office for favors, then he muses about the same kind of crap as his campaign is desperately broke.
Just play it straight, no spin, if Biden was talking like that you would suddenly see the light, but when Trump does it, it’s Monday. This ‘golly gee whiz I can grope them and they let me, and maybe I can get $25 million from this other guy for better results from my agencies, golly gee’ is indefensible. Had Trump made some kind of effort to say ‘Biden will do this bad thing, then Whembly’s point would make total sense and you two would be right to be mad at poor victim Trump.
But that did not happen. Trump was talking about what he, Trump, thinks about doing.
Dustin (4237e0) — 10/19/2020 @ 5:07 pm37.What hit Dewey in 1948 was the sudden, abrupt, end of inflation.
More like Harry gave him Hell.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/19/2020 @ 5:14 pm@46. And the Watergate break-in ends w/t five burglars. 😉
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/19/2020 @ 5:17 pm“Not a red America, not a blue America but a United States of America.’ – Joe Biden, 10-18-20
Yep, that’s right folks, once a plagiarist, always a plagiarist: yesterday JoeyBee plagiarized a line from President Obama w/o crediting the source.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/19/2020 @ 5:21 pmthe Biden campaign has announced a “lid” until after the Thursday debate.
Another play plgiarized: you know who else liked to hide from the press- roped off or just hidden away?
Hillary.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/19/2020 @ 5:23 pmThe Lincoln Project’s latest:
Yes, a great ad, but focusing on just how terrible Trump is, not on any policy matter. There are Republicans who respect women, too, and there are Democrats who don’t.
“Vote for Joe Biden. I am not Donald Trump!” Sadly for Joe, there are 3 other candidates on my ballot who are also not Donald Trump.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 6:03 pm76. What a stupid ad!
Since when does Trump only belittle women? And is anything new to people. As for blood coming out if…Trump was quoted in a 2009 book ISBN 9781401310295 saying that about wen who had been victimized by Bernie Madoff, but I suppose they don’t know that.
I can;t find it in Google Books but something very similiar appears in the 2016 edition of this book:
https://www.google.com/books/edition/The_Madoff_Chronicles/R8g7CwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=madoff+trump+blood&pg=PT101&printsec=frontcover
Sammy Finkelman (fb61e5) — 10/19/2020 @ 6:30 pmThe other problem with the ad is that it cannot explain why so many women support Trump. Perhaps it’s because they know that the Democrats will place the shirkers and slackers in line before food for their kids.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 10/19/2020 @ 6:31 pmTrump claimed CNN is playing up the coronavirus….in an attempt to stop people from voting. (!?)
He said to the crowd something like: Aren’t you tired of the coronavirus?
He didn’t follow up with: Therefore, I am going to get rid of it.
Sammy Finkelman (fb61e5) — 10/19/2020 @ 6:40 pmThe other problem with the ad is that it cannot explain why so many women support Trump.
Ha, ha, ha! You’re kidding, right?
nk (1d9030) — 10/19/2020 @ 7:05 pmIn this large, recent national poll by an average-quality pollster, the gender breakdown is:
Men: Biden 49, Trump 47
Women: Biden 55, Trump 41
Biden leads in all income groups and demographics, except Whites (51/45 Trump) and of course Republicans.
Dave (1bb933) — 10/19/2020 @ 11:01 pmChris Wallace also called the story “suspicious” and said, “I can understand the concern about this story. It is completely unverified and frankly, Rudy Giuliani is not the most reliable source anymore. I hate to say that, but it’s just true.”
This from a clown who can’t even moderate a debate.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/20/2020 @ 1:46 am76.The Lincoln Project’s latest: Conservative whine; bitter dregs.
It ain’t beanbag; if they can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/20/2020 @ 2:01 am‘Notably, young Black voters don’t seem to feel as negatively about Trump as older Black Americans do. For instance, an early-July African American Research Collaborative poll of battleground states found that 35 percent of 18-to-29-year-old Black adults agreed that although they didn’t always like Trump’s policies, they liked his strong demeanor and defiance of the establishment. Conversely, just 10 percent of those 60 and older said the same.’
‘Well I tell you what, if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black.’ – Joe Biden 5/22/20
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/20/2020 @ 2:11 amRasmussen: “NeverTrump” conservatives are responsible for Biden’s lead in the polls
Heh. Suck it, gerbils!
As Allahpundit notes in the visible part of a paywalled post:
Dave (1bb933) — 10/20/2020 @ 3:16 amDon’t ever lump me in with the Never Trumpers. Those guys a bunch of neo-conservatives that have ruined the country. I am not one of those. In fact, I hate them, because they do not represent real American values. They represent themselves, just like Trump represents himself. So they’re two sides of the same coin. Heads I win, tails you lose. Except heads is not a win for me, it’s a loss.
I am a Not Trump voter. I am now also a Not Republican voter. I will be voting Libertarian where I can and Democrat where I must. This Trumpublican party must be thoroughly repudiated.
By the way, I live in deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley. Down here Hispanic Americans outnumber Anglo Americans by 11 to 1. We have very few African Americans, but this is a very diverse community. We have Indian and Chinese citizens also, as well as citizens from Mexico, Canada, Central and South America, multiple states and foreign countries. The Rio Grande Valley is the true melting pot. But you know what? We all get along just fine down here. No one discriminates against anyone. We have the best cuisine on the planet, in all varieties.
I live here, I work here, I meet all kinds of people here. Sure there are some Trump supporters, but they are in the vast minority. Most of the people I meet and work with are as anti-Trump as I am.
So all of these reports of Hispanic and African Americans voting for Trump, I call BS. The people I know. Work and have met with, and I know a lot of important people: bankers, brokers, community workers, and state district judges, are not voting for Trump. This is his problem.
He will lash out, for sure. The counting of the votes will be horrific. Trump is going to sue. He is going to litigate this election till hell freezes over.
This is where we are.
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 10/20/2020 @ 5:26 am90.
Rudy Giuliani may not be the most reliable source any more, but…
1. The story is plausible: (and more plausible the more you hear)
(Hunter, we can reason, abandoned the laptop because he was keeping his files in the cloud, and the laptops he worked on were really being used as terminals or backup, and the computer repairman had given him back a computer that worked by giving him $10 or so keyboard – which he never returned or paid for.
He felt no pressing need for the files, since he had them on another computer and had perhaps downloaded his files again to yet another, and even the first day he had another computer to work with.
The only reason he had originally for getting the extra external hard drive was on the off chance that some files wasn’t backed up or synchronized with the cloud, but he discovered that he didnl;t need them.
And at the time he abandoned it, he wasn’t famous so he wasn’t worried about anyone looking at or copying his files, If he didn’t trust the computer repair shop – more than an Apple store with who knows how many people having access to his computer – he wouldn’t have brought his laptops there or left it for file recovery.
2. The computer repairman has been located and given interviews (although possibly he’s not being completely open with everyone about all the things he did, and/or may have been unclear)
3. The material was voluminous, too time consuming to fake, and it would have been unnecessary to try to fake so much. And with every bit of extra fakery, a faker risks tripping up.
4. There have been no anachronisms or obvious errors discovered in material published so far. Even the best fiction writers get things wrong. Fakers could still maintain the lie, but we’re not seeing anything wrong here. You;d have to know a lot of details about Hunter’s life in order to avoid that. No claim of “this is wrong” has been made by the Biden people, except to say a meeting with someone from Burisma – which the email does not explicitly state actually happened – was not n Joe Biden;s official schedule
Now the significance of that is being distorted (i.e. Biden MAYBE met with someone from Burisma, and therefore he discussed his sons business dealings wirh Burisma with his son, and probably got a kickback also, like a boss in an organized crime family does) That may have come from Steve Bannon.
He can’t put stuff like that (arguments claiming A = B) on Breitbart any more.
Sammy Finkelman (fb61e5) — 10/20/2020 @ 5:57 am4. Hunter I heard from Mark Simone on the radio (not sure if this exactly true) is trying to get his files back, and in so doing acknowledging he is the author of at least some of the material
93.
Asking political party is good in states where they have registration by party, but I think most states don’t have it.
New York State does. I heard from someone on Sunday that he is not actually liberal (although apparently he intends to vote for Biden) and as a matter of fact he used to be a Republican.
But the Republican Party in New York State is a joke. He registered Independent (just had a thought – there is no registration as Independent in New York state – just no party affiliation, but there is an “Independence” party, which is probably going to disappear after this election, thanks to a change in the rules fr permanent ballot access manuvered by Democrats, which changed the qualifications from 50,000 votes in a Governor’s race every 4 years, to 130,000 votes AND I think, 2% of the votes cast every 2 years in a Governor’s rce or Presidential electors race)
He was under the impression that that meant he could vote in primaries. But no, you have to register Democrat. (Republican primaries are few and far between)
It is actually too late to change his registration so as to vote in primaries for city office next year. The deadline in New York State for changing party registration is the previous year’s November election and I think it is even earlier because the deadline for registration this year was Friday, October 9.
People don’t know the rules – they also don’t know they must search them out, or pay close attention when some mention of a rule bobs up.
He also hadn’t voted in 2019 ad so did not know that the sign in procedure had changed. We no longer sign a bound book containing voter’s names and signatures, but a small computer, with a stylus. (called an E-poll book and something like what UPS gives you to sign.)
Sammy Finkelman (fb61e5) — 10/20/2020 @ 6:19 am94. Gawain’s Ghost (b25cd1) — 10/20/2020 @ 5:26 am
They’re claiming 20% or so, or at any rate more than Trump got in 2016.
You a have to bear in mind this is mostly younger people. The blacks have a higher percentage who are biracial and the Hispanics may be sometimes only technically Hispanic. I mentioned also social media campaigning, and, for blacks, pushback against de-policing and attempts to eliminate charter schools; and for Hispanics, the disappearance of immigration policy as an issue.
Sammy Finkelman (fb61e5) — 10/20/2020 @ 6:26 amSammy Finkelman (fb61e5) — 10/20/2020 @ 5:57 am
The problem is for true believers:
#1 Can be dismissed because the Russians could get the same laptop as Hunter.
#2 Can be dismissed because he’s a Russian asset or a cut-out or a dupe or whatever the soviet spy lingo is.
#3, #4 We are talking about Russians here. They wouldn’t make any mistakes or Putin would send them to Siberia.
True believers see this scandal as more proof that Russia is working to get Trump elected. It doesn’t occur to them that if Russia could do everything that’s attributed to them they’d still be the soviet union and would have won the cold war.
frosty (f27e97) — 10/20/2020 @ 6:53 amTaking me a while to get back to you frosty but I still intend to since you took the time. Sorry for the delay.
Patterico (115b1f) — 10/20/2020 @ 7:00 amIt doesn’t occur to them that if Russia could do everything that’s attributed to them they’d still be the soviet union and would have won the cold war.
The Soviet Union faced a small but significant disadvantage. Donald Trump was not the President of the United States. If only, eh, comrades?
nk (1d9030) — 10/20/2020 @ 7:07 amnk (1d9030) — 10/20/2020 @ 7:07 am
That was sort of my point. If you believe the conspiracy theories you believe the Russians are capable of wild feats of espionage and dirty tricks and electing a president they control. In that fantasy world the soviet union would still exist. Clapper calls the Hunter emails an example of soviet tradecraft. It’s almost as if the true believers actually think this is a soviet threat.
Yep. The same disadvantage the Russia conspiracy theories face, reality.
frosty (f27e97) — 10/20/2020 @ 8:11 amI’ll rephrase:
nk (1d9030) — 10/20/2020 @ 8:20 amTruman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush 41, Clinton, Bush 43, and Obama were competent Presidents who would not let the USSR 1.0, 1.1, 1.2 and 2.0 interfere with our elections. Trump is a corrupt criminal traitor, not to mention an incompetent weak sister, and he is both unwilling and incapable of protecting our elections from USSR 2.0.
@102. The very fact the CCCP existed essentially ‘interfered’ w/U.S. elections. It shaped American policy and expenditures. Just as China does, today.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 10/20/2020 @ 9:30 am102. nk (1d9030) — 10/20/2020 @ 8:20 am
The Soviet Union certainly did interfere in 1948 (in a self defeating way) by supporting Henry A. Wallace (although that was more to push doing nothing about the Soviet tajkeover of Eastern Europe, wirhout thinking about the effect on the election, because the only effect could be to take away votes from Truman and elect Dewey, although perhaps Stalin thought he was less for the Marshall plan and foreign alliances. The Soviet Union, through the Communist Party and other front groups that might take direction was also active in Congressional races, like Vito Marcantonio in New York, and it was instrumental in the election of Senator Joseph McCarthy in Wisconsin in 1946 – it wanted Robert LaFollette defeated in the Republican primary that year. (McCarthy ran as an isolationist and he said nothing against Communism till 1950. His biggest demagoguery in 1949 involved supporting those Nazis who had carried out the Malmedy massacre of American soldiers in Belgium, on December 17, 1944, during the Battle of the Bulge.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malmedy_massacre_trial
Also, in 1960, Nikita Khrushchev later claimed in his taped reminiscenses that he had made Kennedy president by shooting down the U-2 plane and canceling the summit.
The wikileaks things, though was something quite bigger.
Trump is a corrupt criminal traitor, not to mention an incompetent weak sister, and he is both unwilling and incapable of protecting our elections from USSR 2.0.
Sammy Finkelman (a69e24) — 10/20/2020 @ 12:28 pmnk:
I don;t know that he’s a traitor, and he is most likely not corrupt, although he could be a criminal because of some other matters, and his appointees have done quite a lot to counteract and prevent foreign interference.
They just unsealed indictments against six Russians.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/us/politics/russian-intelligence-cyberattacks.html
Sammy Finkelman (a69e24) — 10/20/2020 @ 12:44 pm