Patterico's Pontifications

8/17/2020

As The Gap Between Biden and Trump Narrows, Will The “Hidden Trump Voters” Close It Even More?

Filed under: General — Dana @ 8:37 am



[guest post by Dana]

CNN is reporting that a new poll shows Trump closing the gap against Biden’s lead among registered voters:

Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among the 72% of voters who say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden’s advantage over Trump widens to 53% to 46%. It is narrower, however, among those voters who live in the states that will have the most impact on the electoral college this fall.

Across 15 battleground states, the survey finds Biden has the backing of 49% of registered voters, while Trump lands at 48%.

The pool of battleground states in this poll includes more that Trump carried in 2016 (10) than were won by Hillary Clinton (5), reflecting the reality that the President’s campaign is more on defense than offense across the states. Taken together, though, they represent a more Republican-leaning playing field than the nation as a whole.

The movement in the poll among voters nationwide since June is concentrated among men (they split about evenly in June, but now 56% back Trump, 40% Biden), those between the ages of 35 and 64 (they tilt toward Trump now, but were Biden-leaning in June) and independents (in June, Biden held a 52% to 41% lead, but now it’s a near even 46% Biden to 45% Trump divide).

Trump has also solidified his partisans since June. While 8% of Republicans or Republican-leaning independents in June said they would back Biden, that figure now stands at just 4%. And the President has boosted his backing among conservatives from 76% to 85%.

The poll also reveals that among those questioned, more Trump voters say they may change their minds before November than Biden voters.

While the President’s approval ratings are historically low at 54% (disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job) and 42% approve, that is still an improvement over previous job approval ratings.

With that, Nate Silver is estimating that Trump has a 27% chance of winning the election based on FiveThirtyEight’s average of national polls. However, that estimate comes with a caveat:

Silver said “uncertainties related to COVID-19,” like what the economy will look like in November, make the election especially unpredictable.

“It’s simply too soon for a model or for anybody else to be all that confident about what is going to happen,” Silver said.

Silver’s bottom line: “Yes, Trump definitely still has a shot at re-election.”

Meanwhile, a report came out this weekend, discussing the “hidden” Trump voters. If they do exist, will they number enough to bring Trump a victory?

The belief that Americans aren’t getting the real story about Mr. Trump’s chances for re-election has taken hold among many of his supporters. For Trump loyalists, it is an appealing story, and one with some validity: The news media, which largely failed to anticipate Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016, are undercounting his voters, many of whom are even more reluctant today than they were four years ago to declare themselves in his camp.

Mr. Trump makes this argument often; on Saturday evening, he told reporters that “we have a silent majority the likes of which nobody has seen.” One of his pollsters, John McLaughlin, has even put a name to this supposed flaw in the data, predicting that the “hidden Trump voter” will prove the news media wrong.

But the idea that there are substantial numbers of Trump voters who will emerge from hiding on Election Day, large enough to sway the outcome, is not supported by the latest public opinion research — or by a proper understanding of what happened in past elections where the voter surveys were off, said pollsters who work for Republican and Democratic candidates.

Pointing out the obvious: If there were substantial “hidden Trump voters,” would they really be willing to respond to public opinion research questions or polling? Would they want to reveal their preferences to pollsters? It doesn’t seem likely to me.

More:

“There are many people who are voting for Trump who are in environments where it’s politically untenable to admit it because he’s become so toxic,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “But I’m still not convinced that not telling your business associate or the people in your Rotary Club or the people in your country club is the same thing as not telling a pollster.”

The possibility that Americans are hiding their true intentions from pollsters has provided an irresistible sense of intrigue to presidential elections before, even though there are few confirmed examples where it made a difference…

Four years ago, some suggested there might be a similar phenomenon at work with Trump supporters who were too embarrassed to reveal themselves. And when Mr. Trump won by squeaking out victories in a few battleground states, his backers argued that shy voters were a reason the polls missed his strength in those places.

“The idea that people lie, it’s an interesting theory, and it’s not like it’s completely off-the-wall,” said David Winston, a pollster who works with congressional Republicans. “But it’s obviously a very complicated thing to try to prove because what do you do? Ask them, ‘Are you lying?’”

If voters were indeed afraid of voicing their support for the president, Mr. Winston said, other numbers in the poll would reflect that, like seeing an uptick in the percentage of undecided voters rather than a rise in support for Mr. Biden. “It would not be people saying they are voting for Biden,” he said, “but that they’re undecided.”

While the effects of a hidden Trump vote are certainly overstated by the president’s allies, that does not mean that no evidence exists that polls are missing some of his voters. A small percentage of his support is probably being undercounted, and has been in the past, public opinion experts said. And in states like North Carolina, where the margin of victory could be narrow, the undercount could make a difference between a poll being right or wrong.

A small percentage of his support is probably being undercounted, and has been in the past, public opinion experts said. And in states like North Carolina, where the margin of victory could be narrow, the undercount could make a difference between a poll being right or wrong.

“We assume the race will tighten, and as that happens, the size of the shy Trump vote could very easily come into play,” said Neil Newhouse, a Republican who led Mitt Romney’s polling in 2012.

In 2016, Mr. Newhouse said that Mr. Trump tended to score 2 or 3 points higher in phone surveys when respondents were asked to press a button to record their preferences rather than talk to a live person. In postelection polling, when he asked people if they had ever been unwilling to talk about their vote, 35 percent of Trump voters said yes. And they tended to be women from Democratic-leaning counties.

Mr. Newhouse has picked up further evidence of such reluctance recently. In polls he conducted late last month in North Carolina and Iowa, he found that one-quarter to one-third of voters answered “yes” when asked if they knew someone who is voting for Mr. Trump but would not say so to anyone but their closest friends.

“This totally confirms the notion of ‘shy Trump voters,’” Mr. Newhouse said. But, he added, if polls are undercounting some Trump voters — a group that tends to be uniquely expressive and adamant about their support for the president — no one can say by how much.

It’s hard to say what the numbers might actually be. And just as America was shocked by Trump’s win in 2016, that scenario might very well repeat itself in November if those hidden voters materialize in large numbers. But I agree with Silver that his identified factors could certainly shift the polling between now and November, even substantially so in either direction. I’ll add that, in my view, as far as sheer enthusiasm goes, Trump supporters take the cake. I just don’t see the same level of excitement about Biden from his supporters. However, the selection of Kamala Harris certainly perked up the enthusiasm meter on the Democratic side. Whether that will translate into enough votes for a win, is anybody’s guess.

Oh, and as a reminder: the Democratic National Convention begins tonight.

–Dana

138 Responses to “As The Gap Between Biden and Trump Narrows, Will The “Hidden Trump Voters” Close It Even More?”

  1. Good morning.

    Dana (292df6)

  2. Dana,

    1. I still believe that no one is enthusiastic about voting for Biden. I think there are a lot of people dedicated to voting against Trump. If it was decided by total enthusiasm Bernie would be the Dem nominee.
    2. I wonder if the people that wouldn’t accept polls that were bad for Trump will be equally dismissive of these latest polls?
    3. I think the civil unrest has done a lot to harden Trump’s support among republicans. It gives them something to passionately oppose in a way that Biden never could.

    Time123 (ae9d89)

  3. I agree re enthusiasm and Bernie’s people. I think they are certainly in the no-enthusiasm camp for Biden but will no doubt vote for him as a vote against Trump.

    I absolutely agree re the civil unrest. In just reading about Portland this weekend, and how the city officials have not just let this continue to happen but even tacitly given their approval, it’s easy to see how worried home owners, as we all as business owners in these cities being impacted by regular rioting/looting will vote according to their priorities and worries about possibly losing everything. They might very well be the hidden Trump voters.

    Dana (292df6)

  4. I would say that if the hidden Trump voters are in an environment in which it is toxic for those voters to admit it, then Biden will still get the elector votes of that environment and that’s what counts.

    Also, I just plain doubt it. Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million last time around, and nobody really liked Hillary, they just disliked Trump more.

    nk (1d9030)

  5. There were two other polls out over the weekend showing Biden +9 and +12.

    The average of all three is Biden +8.3, which is exactly what the average was before the weekend.

    Always best to look at aggregates rather than any one poll, especially when one is far from the others.

    Dave (1bb933)

  6. @3, I’m not sure how many people are changing from Biden to Trump over the unrest. I think it’s more that it’s giving people who weren’t going to vote at all due to disgust at Trump a reason to turn out at the polls.

    Time123 (b0628d)

  7. Another interesting feature of polling is that in 2016, Clinton never got as high as even 46% in national polls:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

    But Biden is regularly polling at or above 50%:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

    And as Nate Silver points out, there are a lot fewer undecided and third party voters this cycle, meaning less room for movement in the polls.

    Dave (1bb933)

  8. I’m not sure how many people are changing from Biden to Trump over the unrest

    I’m changing from Biden to Kanye West over Kamala Harris.

    nk (1d9030)

  9. Get back to me when we get around to likely voters. There’s a reason lefty governor’s are sending every registered voter a ballot and screaming about the postal service. It’s not because Biden is blowing Trump away.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  10. As The Gap Between Biden and Trump Narrows, Will The “Hidden Trump Voters” Close It Even More?

    Yep.

    Just keep putting angry blacks and browns on the TeeVee torching neighborhoods, businesses, shooting up cities and demanding ‘reparations.’

    … And ‘The Silent Majority’ smiled.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  11. My point in the “enthusiasm” levels, comparatively speaking, is that it appears that Trump voters genuinely love him, and are voting *for* him as opposed to specifically voting against Biden. Trump supporters seem to think he is just really that great. Biden voters, for the most part, lack the level of enthusiasm directed specifically at Biden himself. Rather than voting for Biden because they think he’s terrific, they are enthusiastically voting against Trump.

    I spoke to a person this weekend who can’t stand Biden and Trump, but will vote Democrat as a vote specifically aginst Trump. And she said that no matter who Biden had selected as his running mate, it wouldn’t have moved the apathy needle for the Democratic contenders.

    Dana (292df6)

  12. However, the selection of Kamala Harris certainly perked up the enthusiasm meter on the Democratic side.

    Like Ferraro did for President Mondale; like Palin did for President McCain. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  13. @7. The ‘polls’ had HRC winning– until the night she lost.

    People lie to pollsters.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  14. Yes, they will. The media and Democrats (BIRM) have tried to shame Americans about politics and society, but they have been too successful by a half. Most Americans now know to just be quiet in public, but vote their conscience in public.

    Our cities are overrun with Democratic militias. We are being told what to do, what to think, what to say. Democratic violence is on the rise and the media refuses to cover it. But we see it. We see it all.

    There was a chance I’d vote for Biden, but at this point my feelings of negative partisanship are too high. The country simply cannot afford a Democratic president who will look away as the left flank destroys our cities and society.

    Hoi Polloi (dc4124)

  15. I think the CNN poll is an outlier, just like today’s ABC News poll that has Biden up by 12.
    One major difference between 2016 and 2020 is that Hillary’s unfavorability ratings were almost as high as Trump’s. At RCP, the average is Biden at -1.6% and Trump at -14.9%.

    Paul Montagu (52bb2d)

  16. @11, agree completely. Trump has successfully sucked so much O2 out of the room that if any of the dems had a vision or a story it paled in compassion to Defeat Trump.

    Time123 (ae9d89)

  17. I think the CNN poll is an outlier, just like today’s ABC News poll that has Biden up by 12.

    You may be right, but I’ll be curious to see if any other polling next week follows either one of these. We’re still about 12 weeks out from the election.

    Dana (292df6)

  18. I would say that if the hidden Trump voters are in an environment in which it is toxic for those voters to admit it, then Biden will still get the elector votes of that environment and that’s what counts.

    I think what they are getting at is that, for example, if you are a secret Trump supporter in Milwaukee or Madison you might not be willing to tell your neighbors, but your Trump vote could help him win the state even if he overwhelmingly loses your neighborhood, city, or county.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  19. I know there’s a not insignificant silentTrump/GOP voters out there.

    The question is, is it enough to pull him over the finish line despite what the polls says?

    With the margins as close in the battleground states, and it’s all about voters enthusiasm. Trump has the advantage as he’ll out-campaign Biden in those states.

    I can’t see Biden matching Trump’s energy…

    whembly (a500a7)

  20. Slow Joe did a wicked interview with Cardi B, who asked some very probing questions.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  21. Silver said “uncertainties related to COVID-19,” like what the economy will look like in November, make the election especially unpredictable.

    I’m not sure if it matters what the economy looks like in November, considering we’re all coming to grips with the idea that we had better get our votes in to the Post Office by about October 15 or so if we want them to be delivered in time to be counted.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  22. Also Dana, the CNN poll used registered voters (link), which becomes less important as you get closer to election day, although the sample size was decent. The two other polls (ABC and CBS) have Biden up by 10, using likely voters. The CBS sample size was 2,152, which should make it pretty solid. All three polls were over the same dates, and reflect Biden’s choice of Harris.
    One other thing about the RCP link. Trump has never gotten above 45.6% (last February) and Biden has never been below 46.8% (last May).

    Paul Montagu (52bb2d)

  23. JVW @ 21,

    Funny, but sad and true…

    Also, welcome back.

    Dana (292df6)

  24. Democrats control large corporations, the media, k-12 education, and universities.

    You cannot get hired at these places if you say the wrong things or support the wrong people.

    They are monolithic in their support for the democrat party. There are few tenured holdouts and they have learned to keep their mouth closed.

    This is how the NAZI’s operated.

    It is effective in suppressing political opposition.

    —- Achilles

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  25. Tom Bradley ran for CA governor in ’82 and ’86. I forget which year it happened (maybe both), but the polls had him winning by a comfortable margin.

    When the votes were counted he lost both times to his Republican opponent. The phenomena was dubbed “The Bradley Effect.”

    https://politicaldictionary.com/words/bradley-effect/

    When polled, voters claimed to be voting for him. When they actually got into the voting booth, far fewer pulled the lever for the black liberal from LA.

    —-Joe Smith

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  26. Helping the media tout the glorious support of teh people for the biden-harris ticket will result in a spectacular meltdown by the Democrats and the media – BIRM – when Trump-Pence emerges bigly victorious in November.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  27. There are thousands of people tweeting how disappointed they are that the wrong Trump died yesterday.

    Yep, no reason to lie about supporting him. These are the good people, compassionate and caring who would wish you dead for your politics, and Trump is the toxic one? Hiding your support for Trump is probably the default position for most of us, unless we are with people we trust.

    —- Bagoh20

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  28. 538 currently has it 7 to 3 for Biden based on today’s poling, which can change. Even if it doesn’t that’s no where near a lock for Biden.

    To put the odds into real world terms

    If you Roll 2 dice and they total 6 or 7 Trump wins.
    If another total comes up it’s Biden.

    People that don’t like craps can come up with their own example.

    Time123 (ae9d89)

  29. @27, Shockingly there are A-holes on both sides of the partisan divide. Trump is one of the worst.

    Time123 (b0628d)

  30. Last night I dreamed that I was in a used car lot listening to a salesman who was congratulating me for considering the purchase of “a fine classic.” When I remained silent, he directed my attention to “all my satisfied customers!”

    One by one they passed me with praises for their choice and the respect I would, likewise, garner for the same choice. After awhile, I notice something inscribed upon their foreheads – it looked like an admonition. “Press.”

    felipe (023cc9)

  31. 11.My point in the “enthusiasm” levels, comparatively speaking, is that it appears that Trump voters genuinely love him, and are voting *for* him as opposed to specifically voting against Biden. Trump supporters seem to think he is just really that great.

    Wouldn’t characterize it as ‘love’– more a cheering section for a guy who can wipe the knowing smirks off the faces of the Coopers, Tappers and assorted ethnic-and-‘color’-crowd over at MSNBC by beating them at their own ratings game. Reaganites would have loved to see Ronnie tell a sniping Sam Donaldson to stick his microphone where the sun don’t shine; but he never did– at least on camera. Nixon tried -as his presser videotape and secret audio tapes reveal- but Trump does it in full view of an eager audience hungry for payback to ‘The Powers That Be'[apologies to David Halberstam]– as only a showman can. And that back talk is what is ‘really great.’

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  32. DCSCA (797bc0) — 8/17/2020 @ 11:47 am

    That might be a part of the hidden Trump voters; non-partisans who simply wish to be entertained, who might not have voted at all if the MSM hadn’t advertised such a tantalizing prospect.

    felipe (023cc9)

  33. Wait until Sundown Joe does a few interviews, or debates. Polls this far out don’t mean anything. Polling is also outdated in methodology.

    I for one am hoping Trump is re-elected. People are blinded by their hate for him and can’t see all of the productive things he has done.

    Flame away and get ready for 4 more years.

    Brion Mitchell (18e8bb)

  34. I think we should really question CNN’s polling. They had Biden at 14 a month ago and he’s now up by 4. That’s a lot of volatility, especially when there has been no major event (except Kamala) that explains Biden’s drop and Trump’s rise.

    Paul Montagu (52bb2d)

  35. Flame away and get ready for 4 more years.
    Brion Mitchell (18e8bb) — 8/17/2020 @ 12:16 pm

    LOL! I suppose you think you raised hell.

    felipe (023cc9)

  36. Harris helped Biden with the Left, but they were never going to vote for Trump, so it is half as effective as the centrists that Harris repelled, which often moved a vote FROM Biden TO Trump.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  37. I think we should really question CNN’s polling.

    Alternatively, we should question the wisdom of picking Harris and/or Biden’s craven surrender to the special interests that demanded a black woman on the ticket.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  38. @39, it’s Mollie Hemmingway. Not worth the time to read.

    Time123 (b0628d)

  39. Better you stick w/CNN.

    Release teh Rage Momz! https://nyti.ms/2PYvJSH

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  40. It isn’t the toxicity of Trump that forces people to be silent about their vote. It’s the toxicity, mendacity and evil of the left. Doing anything that opposes the agenda of the SJW’s will get you fired, doxxed, firebombed or worse.

    —- alanc709

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  41. Au contraire mon frere, shes batting .860 at least.

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  42. Is Trump toxic? Or is it that anti-Trumpers have developed a well-deserved reputation for intransigence and violence?

    —- Big Mike

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  43. Given its track record, polling seems about as good a predictor as chicken entrails or tea leaves. Touting them seems like an attempt at creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    Remember last time, President Hillary was a sure thing.

    Bored Lawyer (56c962)


  44. There was the first impeachment effort, the Beltway punditry in early 2017 calling for his removal by coup if necessary, the voting machine suits, the Clinton-Obama-Steele subversion of the Trump campaign and transition, the Hollywood assassination chic, the effort to take out former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, the farce of the 25th Amendment that included the bathos of high federal officials contemplating wearing wires in private conservations with the president to the psychodrama of Professor Bandy Lee testifying before Congress about Trump’s mental state, the silly Emolument Clause gambit (Trump has lost over $1 billion while in office and taking no salary), the subversion of the FISA courts, the Russian hoax, Robert Mueller’s two-year long and $35 million witch hunt, the fabricated Steele dossier implanted in the bowels of the Obama government and media, the one-phone-call impeachment circus, the revolt of the retired generals, and what has rightly lately been called “coup porn,” the hysteria over Ukraine and the caricaturing of Trump in 2020 as Typhoid Mary, Herbert Hoover, and Bull Connor as the Left weaponized the contagion, quarantine, and rioting.

    The Left, the media, and the NeverTrump Right rarely now any more argue all of the above was warranted or based on verifiable wrongdoing, but see the mish-mash instead as a righteous “any means necessary” tactic to achieve the noble end of destroying a president that they detest.

    That Trump is still standing is an unrecognized tribute to his resilience, stamina, and willpower to fight it out to the bitter end.

    —- Victor Davis Hanson

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  45. Two likely voter national polls with Biden +9 and Biden +7 dropped later today.

    Dave (1bb933)

  46. Memo to Michelle Obama:

    The medium is the message.

    There is nothing more detached than a canned, pre-recorded speech. Especially at a convention. It lacks the spontaneity and warmth of the now.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  47. Trump’s former DHS chief of staff says Trump is “actively doing damage to our security.”

    That Trump is exceptionally “unfocused and undisciplined.”

    That Trump has no interest in hearing intelligence information, but only wants to turn every situation to his own personal or political advantage.

    That Trump wants things done that are illegal and says “don’t tell me they’re illegal” because he believes he has special powers to do whatever he wants.

    That what he (the DHS guy) saw up close in those briefings was “terrifying.” And other people said “just wait till he gets a second term.”

    This is far from the only person who has basically said that Trump is even worse than he appears to be in public — and that’s plenty bad. The expectation that he would put the national interest above his own was always very weird.

    Radegunda (e1ea47)

  48. #52 translation

    Orange Man Bad

    Eyefull (fd0e2c)

  49. 2016 facts 6,000,000 democrats who voted for obama in 2012 didn’t vote in 2016. Also jill stein got nearly 2,000,000 votes in 2016 she got 300,000 in 2012. 3,000,000 more democrats will have turned 18 and have registered to vote by nov. 2020. Just saying. 70,000 democrats in detroit voted down ballot ;but left top of ballot blank (president preference) because clinton refused to put black on ticket. trump won michigan by 10,000 votes and jill stein got 55,000 votes in michigan.

    asset (37700e)

  50. Memo to Michelle Obama:

    The medium is the message.

    There is nothing more detached than a canned, pre-recorded speech.

    She’s just trying to make things easier for Melania, the poor thing.

    Dave (1bb933)

  51. 51 – only a deep state lap dog believes your drivel

    mg (8cbc69)

  52. 51 — The guy said nothing about his ridiculous spray tan.

    But go ahead and keep believing that no matter how many substantive criticisms are made of Trump’s actual behavior, by people who have observed up close how he handles his responsibility, it’s never the real reason for disapproving, and that there can’t possibly be a real reason to disapprove. Which is what the absurd “Orange Man Bad” meme is intended to say.

    Never mind that this particular orange man is manifestly bad in multitudinous ways.

    Radegunda (e1ea47)

  53. It’s not my “drivel.” It comes directly from someone who watched Trump in security briefings, and it closely echoes the statements of numerous other people who have seen Trump’s stupidity and selfishness and lack of concern for anything beyond what benefits himself.

    Radegunda (e1ea47)

  54. Quite a few people have come out of the Trump admin. saying very similar things about Trump’s stupidity and irresponsibility. And the cultists will always choose to disbelieve them.

    And it’s hilarious to be called a “deep state lap dog” when I’m just an obscure, powerless person far from DC and for most of my politically sentient life I’ve been critical of Dems and wary of the permanent bureaucracy.
    I still am — but that does nothing to mitigate the extraordinary awfulness of Donald J. Trump.

    Radegunda (e1ea47)

  55. 58. He’s still going to win. And I take no pleasure in saying that. I simply believe it to be true.

    Gryph (f63000)

  56. 57 – some deep state hack who will vote democrat

    mg (8cbc69)

  57. #60 — Are all the R’s who have observed Trump up-close and come away with a highly negative opinion merely “deep state hacks”?

    And if lifelong R’s judge Trump to be so uniquely horrible that they’re voting D just this one time, and just for president in many cases, how exactly does that prove their judgment to be baseless?

    That reasoning is comparable to saying “Orange Man Bad” in response to any and every criticism of Trump. Whenever critics list reasons for disapproving, the cultists say: “Ah, that just proves you don’t like Trump! And therefore anything you say about Trump has no merit!”

    It’s a nonsensical tack, and one that Trump defenders would be quick to shoot down if it were applied to anyone else.

    Radegunda (e1ea47)

  58. Filed under: Fairly Obvious…

    The Democrats know they are losing and that fraud is their best hope. Hence their grapes-out push for mail-in voting.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  59. Democrats own the violence, rioting, looting and all around asshattery being perpetrated in the streets of Democratic-controlled cities (decades for some, over a half century for many).

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  60. Colonel @1:53pm, thanks for that. It really is amazing how there’s been a nonstop coup for the past 4 years yet there are so many who think that’s business as usual.

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  61. Hahahahaha. Too funny Dave. Kasich a conservative. Hahahaha.

    Betcha didn’t know his dad was a mailman…

    NJRob (eb56c3)

  62. 61 – Other than Nunes, Hawley, Cruz as a unenrolled voter republicans can pound sand. Love seeing Trump expose mitch and his flock of schiff.

    mg (8cbc69)

  63. Oh my.

    A CNN poll taken between August 12 and 15, three days immediately after Joe Biden chose Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) as his running mate, shows not only a tightening of the overall race, but a 21 point shift away from Biden with non-white voters.

    Egads democraticals!

    How could non-white voters in a cooked CNN poll show such movement away from the Confederate loving Joe Biden and slave owning running mate who are both encouraging “mostly peaceful protesters” to continue burning down the homes and businesses of non-whites and while saying they are going to take away all the jobs and give them to illegals all the while saying there should be no police protection in non-white neighborhoods!

    Oh.

    Wait.

    Now that I read that again I think I’m getting it…

    — – Drago

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  64. Radegunda (e1ea47) — 8/17/2020 @ 3:20 pm

    You’ve almost convinced yourself. Keep having relations with that chicken

    Brion Mitchell (18e8bb)

  65. Radegunda (e1ea47) — 8/17/2020 @ 3:20 pm

    You’ve almost convinced yourself. Keep having relations with that chicken

    Brion Mitchell (18e8bb) — 8/17/2020 @ 4:49 pm

    Rather than being sarcastic, it would be more beneficial to try and present a persuasive argument.

    Dana (292df6)

  66. I don’t know about “hidden” Trump voters. I do know that there are many Trump voters in hiding.

    They’re embarrassed to admit they voted for a monumental failure.

    Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1)

  67. They’re embarrassed to admit they voted for a monumental failure.

    I think there are those as well. However, from my anecdotal evidence, they don’t seem that embarrassed by their vote. Rather they seem to have a pragmatic view of things, and just figure they won’t vote for him this time around. More like they voted for an unknown quantity, found out exactly hat he was all about, and, given that there are no backsies, will make sure to not make what they perceive as a big mistake, again.

    Dana (292df6)

  68. b.s. 72 – some people don’t want the hassle of having never trump delinquents get in their face so they beat them at the election box. pretty effing simple.

    mg (8cbc69)

  69. #70–

    Trumpsters keepin’ it classy.

    I started by reporting comments by a former DHS official who found Trump’s behavior “terrifying.”
    The response from the Trump faithful was, predictably, a personal attack on me. That sort of behavior started back in 2016 during the primaries.

    Radegunda (e1ea47)

  70. I would have cut her some slack if she showed any appreciation of the rare provilege she was accorded, but thats not their bag

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  71. I’ll give a hat-tip to Haiku though. He may have attacked my favorite pop star, but he seems to be basically a decent bloke.

    Radegunda (e1ea47)

  72. New Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 11 points among registered voters — his largest lead yet

    On the opening day of the Democratic National Convention, former Vice President Joe Biden, bolstered by the selection of California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate, has surged to an 11-point lead over President Trump, according to a Yahoo News/YouGov poll. It is Biden’s largest margin to date.

    For months, Biden’s lead hovered in the high single digits. But according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov survey, which was conducted Aug. 14 and 15, Trump’s faltering coronavirus response and unpopular crusade against universal mail-in voting have further weakened his standing, propelling Biden to his first double-digit lead of the campaign.

    Among registered voters, Biden now outpaces Trump 49 percent to 38 percent. Among likely voters, Biden is ahead 50 percent to 41 percent. In comparison, Hillary Clinton led Trump by an average of less than 3 percentage points right before the 2016 conventions.

    So far, Harris’s presence on the Democratic ticket appears to have helped Biden. Forty-seven percent of registered voters rate Harris as an “excellent” or “good” choice — significantly more than the number who felt the same about 2016 Democratic vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine (35 percent) or 2016 Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence (37 percent), according to Gallup.
    ……

    Rip Murdock (d2a2a8)

  73. 21 point shift away from Biden with non-white voters

    That is a lie.

    The June CNN poll is here. The August poll from the weekend is here. These are the only CNN-related presidential preference polls in the months of June and August.

    The lie appears to originate in this Breitbart article:

    In the deeper numbers, though, we discover a whopping 21 point shift away from Biden with non-white voters.

    In early June, with this group, Biden led Trump 74 to 21 percent.

    In this latest poll, and again all of it taken between August 12 and 15, all of it taken after Biden’s much ballyhooed August 11 announcement he was going with Kamala, all of it taken after fake news outlets like CNN met the announcement with 24/7 gushing — the non-white vote moved away from Biden by a full 21 points, and now sits at 63 points for Biden and 31 points for Trump.

    The 63/31 number among People of Color for August is correct, and has a sampling error of 7.5%. You can find it on page 24 of the August poll results, in response to the question:

    “Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidates, and Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican Party’s candidates. Who would you be more likely to vote for?”

    But there is no 74/21 split for the same question – or any question – in the corresponding June poll.

    You can find the equivalent question (which didn’t include the names of VP candidates, since it was June) on page 27 of the June results, in response to the question:

    “Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s candidate, and Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s candidate. Who would you be more likely to vote for?”

    In June (which, remember, was in the immediate wake of the George Floyd killing), Biden led by 66/26 among people of color with a sampling error of 5.7%.

    The sampling error on the *difference* between the two polls is 9.4%.

    (The sampling error for non-whites on the June poll is smaller because they were oversampled to get more accurate results on race-related questions in the aftermath of Floyd’s killing, as explained on page 1 of the June results).

    Dave (1bb933)

  74. A few state polls from the last few days, hat tip fivethirtyeight:

    North Carolina:
    Biden 47/Trump 47
    Biden 45/Trump 44

    Texas:
    Biden 41/Trump 48

    Georgia:
    Biden 45/Trump 47

    Wisconsin:
    Biden 49/Trump 43
    Biden 55/Trump 43

    Also polls for non-competitive states California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Mississippi

    Dave (1bb933)

  75. 538 lmao

    mg (8cbc69)

  76. Trump vows to violate constitution by serving a third term

    President Donald Trump has claimed that he will seek a third term in office because his 2016 campaign was “spied on.”

    Trump made the statement at a rally in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, on Monday afternoon, despite presidents being limited to the number of terms they can serve.

    According to the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution, which was passed by Congress in 1947, a person is limited to being elected president two times for a total of eight years.

    Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was elected president four times before the amendment was passed, is the only president to serve more than two terms.

    Speaking Monday, Trump said: “We are going to win four more years. And then, after that, we’ll go for another four because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years.”

    Who will be the first cultist to loyally and courageously take a stand in support of Trump’s third term?

    Dave (1bb933)

  77. Why the heck not,

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  78. well mr dave a third term seems fair if they refuse to put his face on mount rushmore next to mr gryphs

    Dave (1bb933)

  79. 83. Heh! I should have posted this https://patterico.com/2020/08/15/weekend-open-thread-46/#comment-2411073 here.

    Como se diz “demented orange baboon” em portugues, Slippery Jim?

    nk (1d9030)

  80. 87. What in the bloody blue blazes is that all about, Dave?! :-O

    Gryph (f63000)

  81. My first impression of the DNC convention: It’s a really long MSNBC segment but with new Democrat faces (mostly).

    Paul Montagu (52bb2d)

  82. Let me remind you people here, I don’t like Trump. I won’t be voting for him. Just because I don’t think every criticism of him is necessarily worthy, doesn’t mean I think he is deserving of the Oval Office. There are bad actors on both sides of that particular debate.

    Gryph (f63000)

  83. And yeah, I know you’re just kidding, Dave. But this business of teasing me for being an anti-Trump anti-masker from South Dakota is getting a little old.

    Gryph (f63000)

  84. Well if you want more divining

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1295441578455179265

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  85. Well this changes everything!

    Joe Biden has been interviewed by hip hop rapper Cardi B… and she requested free Medicare for all… and Joe promised it…. and she requested free college for all and Joe promised it… and she requested that black people stop getting killed and he sort of promised it.

    “There’s no reason why we can’t have all of that,” Biden said.

    I’m voting for this guy! The only thing I can’t quite understand it is why didn’t he get these things done the 8 years he was riding shotgun with Obama?

    Eyefull (fd0e2c)

  86. So another yutz that captain pike agrees with.

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  87. Kasich: I’m A Conservative Republican And I Will Make The Case For Biden At The DNC

    Next up “Souter: I’m a conservative jurist and ….”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  88. Also, Susan Molinari, who quit her House seat because she didn’t want to be associated with Republcians, is speaking as warmup to Kasich.

    BTW, if Kasich had quit the race in March or April 2016 (or dropped dead or something useful), we’d be talking about President Cruz’s renomination and Donald Trump would be relegated to the same place as Harold Stassen.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  89. @101. Meg Whitman… another looza.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  90. Kasich- literally outstanding in his field.

    Ever seen him eat?

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  91. Nope. I’ve never seen him lose an election in Ohio, either.

    nk (1d9030)

  92. @104. He’s not held office in years.

    Nor is he a man of the people; Kasich net worth- $10 million (celebritynetworth.com)

    But video of his IHOP dining habits is priceless.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QONaNnya5UQ

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  93. And screw Cruz! He and Rubio should have gotten on a boat to go back and fix their parents’ sh!thole country, instead of helping Trump destroy this one.

    nk (1d9030)

  94. There’s only one way to jazz up this DNC snoozer.

    With so any video cuts,they need a Joke Wall. Hello, Joe- Beau says call George Schlatter.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  95. The public parts of the convention seem to be reduced to two hours, and the speeches are remote which also means they are pre-recorded.

    The full two hours will be streamed by the Democratic National Committee (at https://www.demconvention.com/watch-the-convention – or maybe that’s another separate outlet) and on YouTube at https://www.youtube.com/demconvention. And by the New York Times and other organizations.

    C-SPAN, CNN, MSNBC and PBS will carry the full two hours.

    CBS, NBC, ABC and Fix News will carry just the 10 pm to 11pm hour.

    Speeches tonight include Amy Flobuchar, Catherine Cprtez Masto (Bevada Senator) Andrew Cuomo. James Clyburn, Gretchen Whitmer, John Kasich, Bernie Sanders and Michelle Obama, who will speak last.

    Tuesday s=is Chuck Schumer, John Kerry, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Lisa Blunt Rochester (Congresswoman from Delaware, who is also black) Bennie Thomas (House Homeland Security Chairman) Bill Clinton and Jill Biden.

    Wednesday is Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Michelle Lujan Grisham, Tony Evers (Wisconsin governor) Elizabeth Warren, Gabrielle Giffords (shot in 2011, husband running for U.S. Senate in Arizona) and Kamala Harris, who will give her acceptance speech, as is traditional now for vice presidential nominees.

    Thursday will be Cory Booker, Chris Coons, Pete Buttigieg, Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin Senator) Keisha Lance Bottoms, Tammy Duckworth Andrew Yang and Joe Biden will finish it off with his acceptance speech.

    You have most of the contenders for vice president. Among previous presidential nominees, Al Gore is conspicuously missing. Probably he begged off. Maybe Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale and Jimmy Carter were considered too old. They wouldn’t have to travel.

    There will be musical interludes, like on Saturday Night Live. The ex-Dixie Chicks, Common, Billy Eilish, Jennifer Hudson, John Legend and Billy Porter will be among the performers.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  96. Michael Goodwin said on WOR this morning that we don;t hear (anywhere) anyone condemning the violence n the streets, but occasionally there is condemnation of the police.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  97. Yes we need more commie pushing garbage, like bill ayers and susan rosenberg

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  98. BTW, if Kasich had quit the race in March or April 2016 (or dropped dead or something useful), we’d be talking about President Cruz’s renomination and Donald Trump would be relegated to the same place as Harold Stassen.

    Perception error…Trump was a 2nd choice of both camps which were actually to the respective left and right of the Trump bloc. I had the same lament about Gery Chico and Miguel DelValle both running against Rahm Emmanuel for Chi mayor in 2011, assuming if the 2 latin candidates could coalesce their respective blocs, but that wasnt to be- Chico was actually the old ethnic bloc and more small c conservative hispanics, DelValle a fave of progressives.

    And yes to nk’s suggestion to cool Cuban and dork Cuban (YMMV)…by now, the Cuban regime probably has some rusty kalashnikovs and T34s, much easier game than the CNGJ, St. Rosa de Lima (which did to Guanajuato what meth did to its equivalent Ohio) and Sinaloa.

    urbanleftbehind (ea63fb)

  99. They are really good at sinking tug boats and downing civilan aircraft (the last was what that netflix tongue bath was about) as for military they did about average against south african military thats their speed. Thats what got jeff flake all excited, he grew up in namibia (whats the major export from there)

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  100. Thats not so funny is it, when your choice is to be conscripted into the young pioneers and they teach you to count using grenades, when a cup of milk is your weekly ratio .

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  101. Michelle Obama point seems to be people should vote and not vote for third parties. Request absentee ballots immediately. And vote as fast as possible.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  102. Michelle Obama said students need to be free of fear of being harassed. I don’t think she meant by their fellow students.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  103. 101. The problem was that Marco Rubio quit when he lost Florida. He shouldn’t have.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  104. Larry ellison told him no mas, sammeh.

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  105. I am watching Moochelle but with the sound turned off and a superimposed sound track from an old Leave It To Beaver episode in which Miss Landers lectures the Beav on better personal hygiene and accepting people different than him. This makes it almost watchable.

    Eyefull (fd0e2c)

  106. Joe Biden has one foot in the grave.

    ‘It is what it is.’ – Michelle Obama 8/17/20

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  107. “It is what it is” I think is copied from Rush Limbaugh.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  108. Thats the way it ought to be, sammeh

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  109. Michelle Obama said Trump was in over his head, which is a kind thing to say. I seems like she didn’t want to get too critical here.

    There were a few good lines in it, Like someone being president revealed character.

    She said we shouldn’t think things couldn’t get worse. Not a good thing to say when you want to replace an incumbent!

    (She meant, of course, that Trump could get worse, but didn’t even attempt to explain. This also kind of ignores the fact that the Republican Party is not likely to control both houses of Congress but this isn’t aimed at people who have a good grasp of reality)

    Is this a dog whistle? Is there some unstated argument in the background here?

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  110. It’s like blinking a special way as a cry for help, Sammy. But then again, the 2nd term is owed to one Derek Chauvin – caused riots with the bonus of closing the garage door on VP Amy Klobuchar.

    urbanleftbehind (ea63fb)

  111. 2nd term? I don;t follow you.

    Almost all of the potential vice presidential nominees have speaking roles. I mean, Keisha Lance Bottoms. (maybe we;ll get some reality)

    But not Susan Rice. But she’s going to be Colbert now, live.

    Colbert showed that alot of it this night was s montage. People saying “We the People” And clapping.

    The clapping seems to have been live (only one take) even if the speeches weren’t.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  112. Trumps 2nd term is what I meant.

    urbanleftbehind (ea63fb)

  113. Dana,
    The WSJ has a poll out that supports what you asserted in 11. Always nice to have data to support an assertion. Another interesting finding is that most respondents saw very little difference between Biden and Trump for necessary mental and physical health to be president.

    Among
    Biden Voters

    More for Joe Biden ……………………… 36
    More against Donald Trump ……………….. 58
    Some of both (VOL)………………………. 6
    Not sure…………………………………… –

    Having the necessary mental and physical
    health to be president
    August 2020+

    Donald Trump Better 39
    Joe Biden Better 37
    Both equally 6
    Neither Would be good 16
    Not Sure 2

    Time123 (306531)

  114. @79, Dave, that’s a nice break down, but I’ll be shocked if CH admits the error.

    Time123 (306531)

  115. 11. Dana (292df6) — 8/17/2020 @ 10:05 am

    that it appears that Trump voters genuinely love him, and are voting *for* him as opposed to specifically voting against Biden.

    around here, it’s the other way around. People keep on asking me who do I think is going to win the election – and I think they are mostly fearful of what Biden would do.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  116. I consider him a blunt instrument, thats whats needed

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/18/day-1-of-the-digital-dnc-a-night-of-gop-moderate-outreach-falls-flat/

    Bolivar di griz (7404b5)

  117. urbanleftbehind (23 and 125

    , the 2nd term is owed to one Derek Chauvin – caused riots with the bonus of closing the garage door on VP Amy Klobuchar….Trumps 2nd term is what I meant.

    I don;t think it guarantees him, or even makes possible a second term, but the Democrats do seem worried about losing the election and want people to vote early. It could be one thing they are worried about is how this plays out.

    Of course one way to prevent that is to just boldly denounce the idea of “defunding the police.” They don’t endorse if, if it means abolishing the police, (something only big time drug dealers, or people involved in other forms of organized crime, should be in favor of) and they redefine those words, but they don’t say that is a terrible, terrible idea, ad actually we need more police now, and more incarceration.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  118. Governor Andrew Cuomo said experts told him it was a European virus.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/andrew-cuomo-joe-biden-democratic-convention

    hat is just not accurate. It came to New York from Europe, mainly Italy, but it came to Italy from Wuhan China. Not that his specific criticism isn’t somewhat accurate.

    The European virus infected the northeast while the White House was still fixated on China

    True, but he didn’t point it out either.

    The virus had been attacking us for months before they even knew it was here

    The first attempts came directly from China.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  119. I think Cuomo got to write more of his own speech.

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  120. * 119

    Maybe Michael Dukakis, Walter Mondale and Jimmy Carter were considered too old.

    Jimmy Carter is on the speaker’s list for today, the same day as Bill Clinton.

    Michelle Obama’s speech was recorded even before Kamala Harris was announced as Joe Biden’s selection for VP. She also praised the job he did as vice president – which can only be aimed at people ignorant of the limited functions of a vice president. Not that you couldn’t say he learned, or he was present and consulted

    Sammy Finkelman (db2a13)

  121. No idea how many “hidden” voters there are. But I take every poll I can and lie. I don’t think lying is right generally. In this case I relish it. I want nobody to know what the election results could be. I’m so sick of being in a giant corporation where my department is so liberal that I’m essentially working in a hostile work environment politically, and being in an extremely blue state the electoral votes are going to Biden so I don’t have to agonize over how I vote. Biden is an idiot and filled with amyloid plaque. Trump is a flaming asshole whose mental acuity is far from certain. One will live leftists as judges and try to shut down our energy industry. The other won’t do that. Both will borrow too much money. The choice for me is easy. Vote against Joe Biden and lie to every poll I can find.

    Lazlo Toth (51e4ea)

  122. mr. president donald trump, who the only who could reach him the only who could teach him was the son of a preacher man (besides mr. roy cohn i mean), personifies the triumph of hope over experience

    it is a common phenomenon, well documented

    nk (1d9030)


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