Covid and the Closing Window of Opportunity
[guest post by Dana]
In a new report at STAT, health experts are becoming increasingly concerned about Covid-19 and the window of opportunity closing on us before we can get a handle on the spread of the virus. After all, the cold and flu season will be upon us soon enough, and there is no end in sight for the pandemic – save for the hopes of an effective vaccine in the future:
…which is all but sure to complicate the task of figuring out who is sick with Covid-19 and who is suffering from a less threatening respiratory tract infection. It also means that cherished outdoor freedoms that link us to pre-Covid life — pop-up restaurant patios, picnics in parks, trips to the beach — will soon be out of reach, at least in northern parts of the country.
Unless Americans use the dwindling weeks between now and the onset of “indoor weather” to tamp down transmission in the country, this winter could be Dickensianly bleak, public health experts warn.
“I think November, December, January, February are going to be tough months in this country without a vaccine,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
While pharmaceutical and biotech companies are involved with vaccine development, the US Dept. of Health and Human Services projects that even with Operation Warp Speed (OWS) in effect, a vaccine will likely not be available until January 2021.
As greater Europe and Asia are currently braced for a second wave of the disease, the US is still in the first wave. States are showing no change in infection rates, a decrease in infection rates, and even some increased infection rates. To put it another way:
[M]ore than 50,000 Americans a day are being diagnosed with Covid-19. And those are just the confirmed cases.
To put that in perspective, at this rate the U.S. is racking up more cases in a week than Britain has accumulated since the start of the pandemic.
While there was hope that the virus would abate during the hot weather, that has not been the case. Experts agree that there is less risk of transmission outdoors, but heavily attended events like the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and Minnesota’s three-day rodeo demonstrates that far too many Americans still don’t take the virus seriously, are tired of the restrictions on their lives, and are throwing caution to the wind.
Public health officials are puzzled by the refusal to take the virus seriously. Kristen Ehresmann, director of infectious disease epidemiology, prevention, and control for the Minnesota Department of Health shakes her head in disbelief:
Just this idea of, ‘I just don’t want to believe it so therefore it’s not going to be true’ — honestly, I have not really dealt with that as it relates to disease before.
More concern:
Epidemiologist Michael Mina despairs that an important chance to wrestle the virus under control is being lost, as Americans ignore the realities of the pandemic in favor of trying to resume pre-Covid life.
“We just continue to squander every bit of opportunity we get with this epidemic to get it under control,’’ said Mina, an assistant professor in Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health and associate medical director of clinical microbiology at Boston’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
“The best time to squash a pandemic is when the environmental characteristics slow transmission. It’s your one opportunity in the year, really, to leverage that extra assistance and get transmission under control,” he said, his frustration audible.
Meanwhile, in an effort to encourage more Americans to wear a mask, the CDC will be participating in the World Mask Week campaign, the goal of which is to encourage people around the world to embrace the use of face masks until a vaccine is available.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Pandemic Action Network are partnering with more than 40 organizations to host World Mask Week which began Friday in an effort to increase the use of face coverings across the globe.
Wearing a mask in public spaces has been stressed by medical professionals as a primary way of slowing the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.
Dr. Ali Nouri, President of the American Federation of Scientists, said the event will help normalize wearing a face mask.
“If you’re not masking, you’re not just putting yourself at risk but you’re putting other people at risk,” said Nouri. “The more people that understand that and realize that their well-being depends on other people doing the right thing, that’s going to generate more pressure, more momentum and more acceptability of masks.”
With that, the state of Kansas just released information about the efficacy of face masks. The results were unsurprising:
The state’s 15 counties with mandatory mask orders — including Wyandotte and Johnson counties in the Kansas City area — have seen a greater decline in coronavirus cases than the remaining 90 counties that don’t mandate them.
Since July 12, not long after counties were given the option of accepting or rejecting Gov. Laura Kelly’s mask mandate, those with mask orders have seen cases decline from about 26 to 16 per 100,000 population. Cases in counties with no mask mandate have stayed relatively flat.
In a state as geographically diverse as Kansas — the 15 mandatory-mask counties contain about two-thirds of the state’s population — there are plenty of variables. Density of population is only one of them. Still, an armchair comparison tells you that masks have made a marked difference in the Sunflower State.
All of the decline in cases, says Kansas Department of Health and Environment Secretary Dr. Lee Norman, “comes from those counties wearing masks.”
“Masks work,” says Dr. Sanmi Areola, director of the Johnson County Department of Health and Environment. Johnson County’s average number of cases has leveled off and even declined under the mask mandate — “from a high of 116 cases per day the week of July 12 to 90 cases per day last week,” Areola told The Star Friday.
Anthony Fauci points to the need for everyone to take the virus seriously if our country is to get a handle on it:
Everyone has to work together to get cases down to more manageable levels, if the country hopes to avoid “a disastrous winter,” he said.
“I think we can get it under much better control, between now and the mid-to-late fall when we get influenza or we get whatever it is we get in the fall and the winter. I’m not giving up,” said Fauci.
But without an all-in effort “the cases are not going to come down,” he warned. “They’re not. They’re just not.”
Good luck to us.
–Dana
Hello.
Dana (292df6) — 8/10/2020 @ 11:58 amAnthony Fauci ought to take a long walk off a short pier. I’m not wearing a mask.
Gryph (6c1146) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:10 pmGryph and people like him are why we can’t have nice things.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:13 pm3. We can’t have nice things because I won’t go where I have to wear a mask? Really?! You can take that mask of yours and shove it squarely up the opposite end from your face.
Gryph (6c1146) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:21 pmI think that it’s absolutely true that: if it were children rather than the elderly that were dying in great numbers, Americans would have a much more urgent response to the pandemic. As it is, the elderly are valued less, and an “eh, they’re at the end of their lives anyway” mentality exists. While there is certainly a utility involved in decision making, in that there are limited resources available, the cavalier attitude of individuals toward the pandemic has nothing to do with that. It has much more to do with a self-centered Well, I’m not being impacted by it view of the virus.
Dana (292df6) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:28 pmAlso the spoiled child attitude: “I won’t tolerate even the tiniest imposition for the well-being of my neighbors and my country.”
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:32 pm@2. That attitude makes you a threat to human life on our planet.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:39 pmI hope you’re doing ok Gryph. Mask or not.
Dana, I think the flu will be much less of a problem this year than in the past. It’s going to be a silver lining.
I’ve always thought this was perfectly reasonable. If you do curbside groceries, work from home, shop on amazon, you probably only need a mask in extremely rare situations.
And we all have to pick the risk level we’re OK with. The problem with masks is that if you don’t wear one around others, they can get upset. I saw a lady try to get Andy at Kroger fired yesterday because he wasn’t enforcing the mask policy. That kind of thing doesn’t prevent illness.
Dustin (4237e0) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:39 pmI think he’s actually saying he is totally isolated from other people.
Dustin (4237e0) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:40 pmI’m not optimistic that we’ll start containing this virus because I’m equally non-optimistic that this president will take CV19 seriously.
Paul Montagu (335319) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:41 pmCourtesy of The Dispatch, Duke University came out with a study on the effectiveness of different kinds of masks, and I was a little surprised.
@5 – don’t forget the partisan valence of where the elderly were decimated first. If one of the NY-centric media’s bete noir’s like DeSantis had been the one to order nursing homes to take COVID patients, rather than Cuomo, I’m certain there would have been much more ample coverage of its horrific impact.
(Not That) Bill O'Reilly (6bb12a) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:44 pmOf course it does, if Andy decides he likes having job and starts enforcing the policy, or he gets fired and replaced by someone who will.
We have been far too willing to accept stupidity like this, and it’s one reason why 1000 Americans are still dying every day when the rest of the world has it under control, why our economy is heading back into the toilet, why kids can’t attend school and participate in sports normally, etc, etc, etc.
Basta. Enough is enough. F*ck this virus, and f*ck everyone who helps it stick around.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:44 pmWhy do you think that?
Dana (292df6) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:46 pmI think if people are intentionally avoiding contact with the public, then obviously there is no need for a mask. I believe Gryph has shared with us that this is basically what he does. Correct me if I’m wrong, Gryph.
The problem happens when young people, particularly, abandon all sense of caution and resume their every day lives as if there is no pandemic. The odds are just against 10 or 20 or 30 people congregating together without observing any social distancing measures.
Dana (292df6) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:51 pmGryph, I hope this week is going well for you.
Dana, FIFY
I think that it’s absolutely true that: if it were children rather than the elderly that were dying in great numbers, Americans would
have a much more urgent response to the pandemicmarch 6 feet apart down the streets with long rifles instructing people to socially distance and wear masks.Kidding aside, the elderly and understood to have agency and be able to take steps to protect themselves in ways that children are now.
Time123 (52fb0e) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:52 pmProbably because a significant fraction of the population is taking preventative measures against infection, far more than in a normal year.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:52 pm@9. I’m certain he’s being stubbornly defiant– and will do so until he gets sick and becomes a burden to others in the overstressed healthcare system.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:52 pmThe question of exactly how to enforce the mask policy in a store is still up for grabs. Should a clerk be responsible to confront a customer, who may get violent or agitated by such a demand? And what happens if they do? Is there hazard pay involved for any store personnel who are required to confront non-mask wearers? We have all read the reports of angry customers spitting on employees, physically attacking them, and even licking them as a result of being confronted for not wearing a mask. Public health laws regarding mandatory clothing in stores do not include wearing a mask.
Dana (292df6) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:54 pmI don’t think people work that way. I think some people will not comply with … almost anything the government asks. If it’s sensible, most can be persuaded, but there’s always some who cannot. In a free society you have to do the best you can. The effort to doxx Andy, just some working man who didn’t want to escalate a stupid situation, and then get him fired, did not save a single person. If anything, the yelling and approaching people and demanding someone be kicked out of the store just maximized contacts. Stores want everyone to mask up, but they also know they have to pick their battles.
-=—–
A lot of folks aren’t going near other people, aren’t touching their face if they leave their home (or at least trying to avoid it), and are wearing masks.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/508688-coronavirus-measures-lead-to-lower-influenza-numbers-across-the-southern?fbclid=IwAR0an19WTck5X5P3IqhHwHVu14nAtAq6uFFO0ZLElu2Ar448Kj9wEuOfgG4
This sounds pretty good to me.
Dustin (4237e0) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:57 pmGryph has said he frequents businesses that don’t require masks.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:57 pmMegan McArdle said on LRC on Friday that we keep fighting the last war with Covid. Our actions and energy continue to be behind the pace of events. We should have had our school plan in July and be working logistics out today.
Now we should be planning what to do for cold and flu season.
Very soon we should be laying out how to disseminate a vaccine, and addressing concerns about the safety of the vaccine.
Obviously much of this is very local, but our national leadership could be establishing a vision and bringing people around to it. The feds can’t mandate a school strategy. But i notice that in my area the first big school distract to announce their intent has essentially created the pattern that the rest are following.
We don’t have that kind of leadership right now.
Time123 (52fb0e) — 8/10/2020 @ 12:57 pmWe don’t have that kind of leadership right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QC6z0nz03JI
DCSCA (797bc0) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:00 pmThen fine them and/or jail them and/or confine them to home with radio bracelets until they change their minds.
Enough is enough.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:01 pmHe’s also said he doesn’t go where that would be necessary and that he follows appropriate SD rules.
Time123 (52fb0e) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:06 pmOh, and he’s said that he was having a lousy week for reasons unrelated to CV19. FWIW
Trump tweets ‘Play College Football!’ as officials consider whether to cancel the season
The viral Fifth Column.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:08 pmThe debate over masks today is a lot like the decades-long fight to mandate seat belts
……
Both are touted as essential safety measures to prevent people from dying. Both are minor accessories that, when first introduced, drew opposition from a vocal few who felt they were too restrictive.
But seat belts have succeeded. Yes, it took decades of jumping legislative hurdles, an effective and catchy campaign (“Click it or ticket”) and the eventual buy-in from carmakers to make them a reflexive part of driving.
Today, the same arguments against seat belts are being used to oppose masks.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:08 pm……
Harvard Law School professor Laurence Tribe testified in a 1986 Massachusetts legislative hearing that “a seat belt law simply removes a rather unimportant element of freedom.” State Sen. Salvatore Albano echoed that argument in slightly more blunt terms, saying those opposing seat belt laws wanted “the right to be splattered all over their windshields.”
SD has no rules concerning masks.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:13 pmDustin,
I agree that Chile and Australia present some positive numbers. But this cannot be ignored either:
Again, this goes back to leadership.
Dana (292df6) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:13 pm@12: and it’s one reason why 1000 Americans are still dying every day when the rest of the world has it under control
Total BS.
You accept the official numbers from, say, Russia do you?
beer ‘n pretzels (00b6c2) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:21 pmI completely support Gryph and his personal decisions to go freely associate with like minded people as well as his avoidance of those places that do not accept his presence. His is a truly peaceful protest.
The people I do not support are those protesters who truly are not peaceful, destroying property and looting, and breaking duly enacted just laws (those laws that do not go against God’s laws).
If only this were referring to the Chicago looters, Dave, I would agree with you.
felipe (023cc9) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:22 pmCriminals must roam, law abiding citizens must be locked down
Narciso (7404b5) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:27 pmRussia’s numbers are much worse than many others (but not ours).
I don’t have to trust Russia’s numbers to see that our per capita death rate is 350 times higher than South Korea’s, 44 times higher than Germany’s and 29 times higher than Italy’s.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:37 pmbut mr dave if we didnt test so much we wouldnt have so many deaths
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:38 pm@29, I don’t trust Russia, Turkey, Iran, NK, China etc.
I do trust German, Norway and the rest of the western world who are the most reasonable countries to compare to.
Time123 (80b471) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:40 pm@32: I don’t doubt that the US has worse real numbers than many countries, especially the cherry-picked ones.
The statement was “the rest of the world has it under control”, which you cannot back up, nor did you.
Again. Total BS.
beer ‘n pretzels (a67981) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:46 pmArizona has turned things around dramatically, thanks to measures put in place at the start of July, when their case rate was through the roof.
Look at their graph on this page.
72% drop in case rate in just the last week, and that was after some previous weeks of decline.
The measures included summary suspension of licenses for businesses that failed to comply.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 1:51 pm#35
We’re not worst, and when they said ‘the rest of the world’ they were using hyperbole. But if you look at how we’re doing relative to other countries i don’t think you can say our response has been good relative to our wealth and resources.
Let’s look at who is worse then we are.
We have city states; San Marino, and Andorra. (not really comparable to large countries)
we have countries that went for herd immunity early; UK and Sweden. It might pay off long term but hasn’t so far.
We have the first countries to have outbreaks; Spain and Italy. They’re fair comparisons.
We have south American countries with far less resources.
So we’re not the worst, but this isn’t where we should be.
DEATHS/100K POP.
Time123 (52fb0e) — 8/10/2020 @ 2:00 pmSan Marino 124.32
Belgium 86.43
United Kingdom 70.18
Andorra 67.53
Peru 65.87
Spain 61.00
Italy 58.26
Sweden 56.59
Chile 53.80
US 49.80
I should have said: the rest of our peers in the developed world.
But hey, if it doesn’t bother that 44 Americans die of the virus for every German, or 29 for every Italian or Frenchman or Dutchman, or 19 for every Spaniard, or 70 for every Austrian or Dane, or 39 for every Czech, or 12 for every Pole, or 50 for every Hungarian, or 87 for every Japanese…at least we’re doing a little better than Mexico!
#MAGA
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 2:01 pmTime, those are cumulative numbers.
What is relevant to our ability to live our lives is how things are today, and the numbers I just quoted are based on the current one-week averages.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 2:04 pm@39, good point. But there’s not way I’ve found to slice the data that makes the US results look good.
Time123 (80b471) — 8/10/2020 @ 2:12 pmhttps://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1292956445944606721
Davethulhu (527049) — 8/10/2020 @ 4:22 pmPerson
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 4:28 pmWoman
Man
Camera
TV
He’s a stable genius spring chicken a whole three years younger than Biden.
nk (1d9030) — 8/10/2020 @ 4:34 pmI’m not wearing a mask.
To me, this is like saying “I am not driving sober.” The primary point of a mask is to prevent YOU from expectorating onto others. Like the libertarian example of swinging a fist, your right to cough/sneeze/spit ends where my inhalation begins.
A night in jail would do you good.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 8/10/2020 @ 4:35 pmU.S. Agency Sidelines Planned $765 Million Loan to Kodak Amid Probes
……
The U.S. International Development Finance Corp. announced plans last month to loan Kodak the funds to produce drug ingredients at its factories. But in a tweet late Friday, the agency said that “recent allegations of wrongdoing raise serious concerns. We will not proceed any further unless these allegations are cleared.” The action was earlier reported by other news outlets.
……
The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating how Kodak controlled disclosure of the loan, word of which began to emerge on July 27, causing Kodak’s stock price to rise 25% that day.
The SEC is also expected to examine the stock options granted to executives on July 27. The option grants instantly became profitable, at least on paper, after Kodak’s loan became public.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/10/2020 @ 4:35 pm…….
In response to a question about the SEC inquiry at a press briefing Aug. 4, the president said he “wasn’t involved in the deal.”
>>>>>>>>>
Meaning he didn’t get his cut.
Of course, I don’t wear a mask at home, except when the cleaning people come (and they wear masks, too). I take it that Gryph hasn’t lost anyone to this thing, so his ignorance/intransigence is perhaps explainable. But it’s right up there on the stupid/stubborn corner of the plot.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 8/10/2020 @ 4:39 pmThe President says the “1917 pandemic” ended the Second World War
It started when the British bombed Pearl Harbor.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 8/10/2020 @ 4:40 pm“Rugged individualists” have to live somewhere, Kevin.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 4:57 pmIn thinking about the lament director of infectious disease epidemiology, prevention, and control for Minn. Dept. of Health, I think that it takes the loss of a loved one for some people to take the virus seriously. But maybe not even then.
Dana (292df6) — 8/10/2020 @ 5:14 pmThe President says the “1917 pandemic” ended the Second World War.
More evidence of cognitive decline.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/10/2020 @ 5:16 pmFauci contradicted Trump’s claims that the virus is disappearing on its own:
Dana (292df6) — 8/10/2020 @ 5:32 pmThe Bulwark drops a 100 megaton truth bomb on the madman in the White House:
The Ravings of Mad King Trump
The whole thing makes for depressing reading, but as a great man once said: It is what it is.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 5:34 pmMaybe if he paid it $130,000 and had it sign non-disclosure agreement?
nk (1d9030) — 8/10/2020 @ 5:35 pmNever let a pandemic go to waste:
FLORIDA GOV. RON DESANTIS: ACC AND SEC SHOULD PLAY FOOTBALL, POACH BIG TEN PLAYERS
I’m glad everything is A-Ok in Florida that DeSantis can become a football recruiter.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/10/2020 @ 5:53 pmPriorities
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 5:55 pmKudlow shoveling something after the parade has gone by:
Kudlow says Trump ‘did not mean that he was eliminating the Social Security tax’
……
Kudlow told CNN’s “State of the Union” that the president will protect Social Security and Medicare after Trump vowed to make permanent his coronavirus executive orders’ cut in the payroll taxes, which help fund the programs.
CNN’s Dana Bash pushed the White House adviser, asking if Trump can protect the programs “and cut payroll taxes at the same time.”
“When he referred to ‘permanent,’ I think what he was saying is that the deferral of the payroll tax to the end of the year will be made permanent,” Kudlow said. “It will be forgiven. The tax is not going to go away.”
CNN’s Dana Bash pushed the White House adviser, asking if Trump can protect the programs “and cut payroll taxes at the same time.”
“When he referred to ‘permanent,’ I think what he was saying is that the deferral of the payroll tax to the end of the year will be made permanent,” Kudlow said. “It will be forgiven. The tax is not going to go away.”
“Well, he said he will do away with it if he gets reelected,” Bash replied.
“I believe he was referring to doing away with the payback of the deferral,” Kudlow said, adding that he think’s Trump’s “intent” is “that we will take any steps possible to forgive this deferral. That’s what he was actually saying. We will protect Social Security. We will protect Medicare.”
“I just want to say that isn’t what the president said at all. He said the opposite,” Bash countered.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/10/2020 @ 6:00 pm……
‘The Lord and the Founding Fathers created executive orders,’ says Peter Navarro in defending Trump move
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Sunday defended President Donald Trump’s decision to use executive orders to provide relief to people impacted economically by the coronavirus pandemic, arguing his hand had been forced by congressional inaction.
“The Lord and the Founding Fathers created executive orders because of partisan bickering and divided government. That’s what we have here,” Navarro said on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.”
……
Navarro’s divine attribution for the origin of executive orders was mocked by many on social media.
“Question for Navarro: Was that in the Old Testament or the New Testament? Or perhaps the Koran?” tweeted Harvard Law School professor Laurence Tribe.
……
“Missed that one in my Lutheran Catechism,” tweeted Chris Gibbs, a farmer and former Ohio Republican Party official who became an independent because of his disapproval of Trump’s trade policies, in response to Navarro’s comment.
…….The Supreme Court has determined that an executive order may only have the force of law if it is based in power vested in the president by the Constitution or by acts of Congress.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/10/2020 @ 6:05 pm……
#10. Here is a link to the actual study rather than a second hand report. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/07/sciadv.abd3083
1DaveMac (16cd0f) — 8/10/2020 @ 6:35 pmWhen you take the trouble to read the ACTUAL STUDY with all the figures instead of some second hand report you notice a couple of things. First up front, they have a lot of qualifiers addressing the limitations of the study due to uncertainties with respect to infection mechanisms. The one of most concern to me is the level of dose required to cause an infection. This would have a direct bearing on the probability of infection with respect to mask efficiency. The other major issue with the study is that the masks were worn for 40 SECONDS. So this is a measure of mask effectiveness when it is first put on. There are no tests for mask effectiveness after 10 min, 20 min, 30 min, 2hrs, 4hrs etc. This tells you right away that the study, while interesting is of limited utility in estimating actual effectiveness at preventing infection.
I am 67 and I am somewhat at risk to COVID due to age. My sister is 63 and is a nurse in San Antonio who is exposed to COVID-19 every day. Both of us feel it is not the Federal Governments responsibility to protect either of us. Nor is it the State and Local governments responsibility. It is not the responsibility of anyone on this blog to protect us. It is my responsibility to protect myself. It is my sisters responsibility to protect her self. I do not care if the general public wears a mask or not. I do not care whether they stand 3 ft apart, six feet apart or 8 feet apart. I take responsibility for my own risk tolerance and my own safety. I can decide if I need to wear a mask or what precautions I need to take. I do not depend on anyone else’s actions for my safety. I am an adult. I do not need some incompetent govt official Holding my hand and ordering or me to do this or that. If I want to take the risk of eating in a restaurant, that should be up to me, knowing full well the seating arrangements and whether I wear a mask, goggles or self contained breathing apparatus regardless of what anybody else chooses to wear. I can decide for myself what social situations I want to risk attending, based on a variety of criteria.
1DaveMac (16cd0f) — 8/10/2020 @ 6:56 pmSame old, same old. “My body, my choice.” The fact that it’s an infectious disease that they’ll pas on to other people just by breathing near us, or they’re gonna be calling our paramedics, going to our emergency rooms, and using up our ICU beds, well, that’s our problem, not their problem. Their parents didn’t use birth control, so they have a right to do whatever they want.
nk (1d9030) — 8/10/2020 @ 7:07 pmTo quote the Bulwark article I linked above on Kudlow:
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 7:20 pmIf an infected person passes it on to me it is my fault for not taking proper precautions. If I infect somebody else, it is my fault for not taking proper precautions. It’s not the federal governments fault, it’s not the states fault. It would be nice if people would assume responsibility instead of hoping someone else will do it for you.
1DaveMac (16cd0f) — 8/10/2020 @ 7:51 pm1DaveMac – do you think the government should enforce drunk driving laws?
Dave (1bb933) — 8/10/2020 @ 7:58 pmWe have three effective tools to fight the virus now. Face masks, face shields and social distancing. A fourth is not serving people who won’t wear face masks and kicking them out of your business and if they cause trouble shooting them is an act of self defense!
asset (d3d8ec) — 8/10/2020 @ 9:48 pm“Rugged individualists” have to live somewhere, Kevin.
There are smart and competent “rugged individualists.” TR, for example. Obstinant and refusing to learn for other people’s mistakes (or your own) is something else. DT, for example (who is not exactly a rugged individualist anyway).
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 8/11/2020 @ 12:51 amI really would like a Congressional Committee to subpoena Trump’s medical records from Walter Reed. Since government lawyers have no privilege wrt government clients when the state pays the bills, I would think that government doctors in the same relationship cannot site privilege either.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 8/11/2020 @ 12:54 am1DaveMac – do you think the government should enforce drunk driving laws?
That’s not what he is saying. It’s that the government does not ensure that no one drives drunk, and therefore each driver should take care to avoid swerving cars, and everyone should refrain from driving drunk, even if the government probably won’t catch them.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 8/11/2020 @ 12:57 amThe Supreme Court has determined that an executive order may only have the force of law if it is based in power vested in the president by the Constitution or by acts of Congress.
EOs that simply direct government employees in the performance of their jobs have a presumption of legality. Those that order citizens around need to have a firm basis in law and should be assumed to be invalid if there is any question about that basis.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 8/11/2020 @ 1:00 amKevin thanks for putting it succinctly.
I definitely think it’s a matter of common sense and care for your community to wear a mask. I also do not think it’s practical or wise to actually enforce it criminally. That would be true even if policing weren’t in the state it’s in.
Cops are avoiding traffic stops too, which is also impacting DWI enforcement. Like you’re saying, I think folks need to be extra careful to avoid the stupid decisions of others. Maybe it would be better of government could help, but with masks I don’t really want to live in a country that can control us quite that much.
Dustin (4237e0) — 8/11/2020 @ 1:13 amWell, the coronavirus is certainly affecting me in the worst way, even though I don’t have it.
My mother passed away on July 30, not from Covid-19, but from simple respiratory failure. She died comfortably at home in her sleep, while I held her hand.
Problem is that she died without leaving a will. She had told me, my sister, my brother, and her assistant that she had a will. We all believed her, but no one ever saw it. In the end, there wasn’t one. It was all in her mind. I honestly believe she intended to file a will, but at the moment of truth, she couldn’t bring herself to actually file one. That would have meant admitting to herself that she was going to die. And she just couldn’t do that. She always said she would live to the age of 100, and that she would outlive me. She lived to a few weeks short of her 81st birthday, which would have been on August 16 of this year.
Because she died without leaving a will, all of her assets, bank accounts and life insurance policy, are frozen. We, her beneficiaries, cannot gain access to any of it, until we get the death certificate, which we have yet to receive.
When we took her to the clinic for treatment on her respiratory tract infection, we were told to not take her to the hospital. The hospitals are all overrun with Covid-19 patients. So we took her home, where she died peacefully shortly there after. I’m not sure there was anything a hospital could have done to prevent that, but the point is that she didn’t have access to critical care, because the hospitals were overrun with coronavirus patients.
It’s the same with funeral parlors. They’re so overrun with Covid-19 deaths, it’s causing delays in issuing death certificates, even for those who did not die from Covid-19.
We have yet to receive the death certificate, and we literally cannot do anything to move forward until we do. We can’t even file a claim for her life insurance policy, even though we are all listed as beneficiaries, as we are on all her bank accounts, without a death certificate.
As to the company, when it came down to two shareholders, Sharon (52%) and Richard (48%), they each took out a life insurance policy naming the other as the beneficiary. This was so that the survivor could use the insurance payout to buy the shares of the deceased at fair market value. Richard has graciously promised to give us the insurance payout when he purchases her shares, valued at around $250,000, but he can’t proceed with that transaction until he has a copy of the death certificate.
Everything is in limbo now. I have bee living off of zero income since February, when I received my last commission check for a little over $500. And it’s all because of the pandemic and the Trump administration’s inept, incompetent and irresponsible response to it. The moratorium of foreclosures, while well intentioned, essentially shut down our company, because we deal mainly with repossessed homes. We haven’t had an assignment, a listing or sale, since February.
And now that my mother is dead, everything is in complete chaos and ruin. We cannot even begin to sort it all out, until we get the death certificate. And that has been delayed, because of the coronavirus outbreak.
If this were another time, pre-pandemic, everything could have been sorted out in a matter of weeks. Now, it’s going to take months, possibly years.
People like Gryph are adamant about not wearing masks, as if their defiant show of liberty meant anything real. That is his and theirs right. However, when they or their relatives start dying, and all their assets and account are frozen until a death certificate is finally issued, they’ll be singing a different tune.
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 8/11/2020 @ 1:26 amGod I’m sorry GG.
Dustin (4237e0) — 8/11/2020 @ 2:23 amI think the panic has been more agregious
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/08/crb-the-case-for-trump.php
Narciso (7404b5) — 8/11/2020 @ 5:47 amShutting down the economy is a draconian sttep that helps no one.
Narciso (7404b5) — 8/11/2020 @ 5:48 amWho has benefited, criminals and rioters
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1293028248004296704
Narciso (7404b5) — 8/11/2020 @ 5:56 amNow wait. All the thins they do to stop the spread of Covid also stop the spread of flu, so it won’t be flu on top of Covid. And flu tests actually work and are quick.
And a flu medicine made by Fuji (Favipiravir, brand name Avigan) also works against Covid. One of a number of off label drugs that do. Hydroxychloroquine is only one of them. Another one is ivermectin. It is promoted by Thomas BArody, and is about to undergo clinical trials in California and in 32 other countries, used in the same way and the same time (early) as hydroxychlroquine, except that the ivermectin substitutes for the hydroxychlroquine, and the antibiotic doxycycline subtitutes for the azithromycin. ((both protocols use zinc)
https://www.biospectrumasia.com/news/91/16457/australian-develops-effective-triple-therapy-to-treat-covid-19.html
Then there is SNG001 (a patented form of interferon beta) which is administered via an inhaler.
In a clinical trial, where half the patients were given a placebo, (that’s the very definition of a clinical trial) patients had a 79% less chance of needing a ventilator or dying. However this is not enough for the experts – they say the clinical trial was too small, so more truly unethical experimentation is needed or it will be ignored on the grounds it has not been proven guilty of saving lives beyond a reasonable doubt. You know the slogan: 100 medicines must not be used lest one ineffective one be used. (sarc)
http://www.pharmatimes.com/news/synairgens_sng001_shows_strong_promise_in_covid-19_trial_1345119
Better, of course is convalescent fluid, also called immune plassa, and possibly better than that is synthetic monoclonal antibodies (because it will administer only antibodies aimed at the spike – in other words it absolutely neutralizes the virus). Convalescent fluid will be mentioned by people following the official line but artificial antibodies probably only after prompting.
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/11/2020 @ 6:18 am73. Narciso (7404b5) — 8/11/2020 @ 5:48 am
It helps, medically, but what some people don;t realize is that it has to <b?? stay shut down till the virus disappears, at least from a bubble you create or else the same thing will happen that you prevented by the shutdown. A shutdown amounts to treading water. You can’t get off that hamster wheel or you drown (the virus spreads)
Even after a vaccine is approved – Dr. Fauci is starting to say that.
There is the idea of contact tracing, but that has to be done quickly and more or less exhaustively.
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/11/2020 @ 6:25 amEverybody will protect the Social Security “trust fund” from harm because of this, but the Democrats prefer to (ingenuously) accuse Trump of what would the consequences (none immediate) of making the tax deferral a tax cut but doing nothing else.
Congress is not going to act that way, nor does Donald Trump want it to. Somewhat more likely is that the tax won’t be repealed and a lot of people will owe the IRS money. (maybe not if they lost income during a good part of the year and over withheld a great deal. But people pay taxes on unemployment insurance, (it is treated like wages except no FICA) thanks to tax reform quite a while back)
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/11/2020 @ 6:33 am52.
That;s not the movie.
This is the movie:
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/11/2020 @ 6:42 am75. There have been bad treatments also that were popular in certain countries or promoted by people at the top of their government.
A form of bleach (chlorine dioxide) in Bolivia.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/world/americas/chlorine-coronavirus-bolivia-latin-america.html
Eucalyptus leaves in Indonesia.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/07/05/ministry-claims-antivirus-necklace-prevents-covid-19-experts-beg-to-differ.html
Herbal tea from Madgascar in Tanzania:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/unproven-herbal-remedy-against-covid-19-could-fuel-drug-resistant-malaria-scientists
Religious amulets in Mexico:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/10/world/americas/mexico-coronavirus-hospitals.html
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/11/2020 @ 7:09 am45. Investigate the insider trading and possibly force a disgorgement of the gains, but don’t prevent production! That’s treating Kodak as if it were the NRA.
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/11/2020 @ 7:10 amI feel your pain, GG. If misery loves company, maybe my experience will cheer you up a little…
When my mother passed away in 2016, she also left no will, despite telling me many times that she was making those arrangements (I never really wanted to talk about it, so ironically it was always she who brought the subject up).
And to make things even more complicated, she died in the Philippines, and her home in the US was in a different state from me. Neither the bank nor the insurance companies will accept the Filipino death certificate, and I can’t take one or two months off to go figure out how to transfer the title to her condo in Arizona so I can sell or rent the place. I would first need to go through the State Department to get some US equivalent of the death certificate.
So for the last four years I’ve been making mortgage, condo fee and property tax payments on a place I don’t live, just to keep things in a quasi-stable state. The mortgage will actually be paid off in a couple more years…
Dave (1bb933) — 8/11/2020 @ 7:17 amI appreciate your concern, Dave, but you don’t know the half of it. Not only did she die without leaving a will, she kept her assets, particularly the condos, under my father’s name, and he died in 2003.
So we’re going to have to take both death certificates to the county clerk’s office and have the title to A-1 transferred to my name, as I intend to keep it, and the title to A-3 transferred to her name, as it is going into probate court for an estate sale, the date of which will be determined by the court-appointed executor.
I’m going to have to hire some contractors to come and remove the connecting door and wall it back up, before then. I’m also going to have to get some technician from DirecTV to come and disconnect the satellite to A-3.
It is all so maddening and complicated. And I cannot do anything to move forward until I have the death certificate. Neither an anyone else. In the mean time, I’m broke. I have no source of income, only a few hundred dollars left in my account, not enough to pay my bills. I am incapable of paying my bills, until I get the death certificate and can free up my mother’s accounts and life insurance. Until then, I am in limbo.
It sucks in the worst way. Pre-pandemic, all of this would have been sorted out in a matter of days. Now, it’s taking weeks or months, possibly years.
You’re damn right I blame the Trump administration and the entire Republican party, all the senators, representatives and governors, for their abject failure in dealing with this outbreak. It is causing far more problems for ordinary citizens than they are willing to admit.
I curse them all, a pox on all of them. I won’t be voting for any Republican for the foreseeable future.
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 8/11/2020 @ 8:40 amFDA intransigence is blocking access to the tests we need, and needed last spring (the saliva were slow-walked, without good reason, except that they would make those companies that had partnered with PCR testing lose out in their heavy investments.)
The above has been my (angry) opinion since April, but here is the Michael Mina talking about the lost chances and opportunities referenced in the original post, speaking and the regulatory burden in the way, in a non-angry expert way, with a measured and persuasive case made for achievement of oublic health objectives with testing solutions that are in a gray refulatory area. https://youtu.be/3seIAs-73G8
SarahW (08f5d7) — 8/11/2020 @ 8:58 amKodak Insider Makes Well-Timed Stock Gift of $116 Million to Religious Charity He Started
Eastman Kodak Co. ’s wild stock-market ride produced what might be the biggest contribution on record to a religious nonprofit, the product of a well-timed gift by Kodak board member George Karfunkel.
In a securities filing last week, Mr. Karfunkel and his wife, Renee Karfunkel, said they donated 3 million of their 6.3 million Kodak shares to Congregation Chemdas Yisroel in Brooklyn, N.Y.
The congregation was incorporated in Delaware in 2018 and uses a Brooklyn accountants’ office as its mailing address, New York charity-registration filings show. Mr. Karfunkel is listed in those filings as its president.
The securities filing said the gift took place July 29, the day Kodak stock closed at its highest level since 2014. Using the average of the stock’s high and low that day of $38.75, which is how the Internal Revenue Service values stock gifts, the donation was worth $116.3 million.
That would make it the single largest gift recorded to a religious group, based on a list maintained by the Chronicle of Philanthropy……
……
Kodak said on Friday that a special committee of the board had retained the law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld to conduct an internal review. A Kodak spokeswoman said Mr. Karfunkel’s gift and its disclosure are within the scope of the review.
…….
Kodak stock traded for a little over $2 on July 27, the day before the federal loan was announced. It briefly surged to $60 on July 29—the date of the Karfunkels’ gift. The shares tumbled 28% on Monday to close at $10.73, putting the current value of the gifted shares at roughly $32 million. It is unclear if the donated shares have been sold.
The Karfunkels’ donation could generate tens of millions of dollars in income-tax benefits for the couple, who property records show have homes in New York City and Florida……..
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:00 am…….
More here with clear, accessible discussionby Dr. Seheult, including intelligible explanation of key concepts necessary to understand testing utility, including terms such as CT value, etc. https://youtu.be/h7Sv_pS8MgQ
SarahW (08f5d7) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:03 amTrump claims he would have not called for Obama to resign over 160,000 virus deaths
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:08 amPresident Trump claimed at a press briefing Monday that he would not have called for President Obama to resign if 160,000 Americans had died on his watch, despite tweeting in 2014 that Obama should resign for allowing a doctor who tested positive for Ebola to enter the U.S.
Do you have any ETA on the death certificate?
I did find that businesses were willing to be fairly accommodating when I told them I was dealing with the passing of a close relative. They’re not going to go out on a limb with anything that could wind up costing them money, but they seemed happy to do everything short of that.
I’m sure I can’t solve all your financial problems, but if a modest loan would help, Patterico has my email address and you can refer him to this comment and ask him to give it to you so we can talk privately.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:16 amTook the weekend off. Glad I did.
I still see emotion is overruling reason in too many.
Carry on with the 2 minutes of hate.
I also see Dave supports going full totalitarian.
Have a good day.
NJRob (eb56c3) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:17 amIt only seems emotional when compared to the President, who has none.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:22 amYeah, about that…
BTW, yesterday I found a great site where you can get coffee cups with one of the Dear Leader’s most beloved tweets printed on them, or in some cases, even two of them on the same cup!
This was probably my favorite.
Dave (1bb933) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:23 amThe quotable Trump.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:30 amTrump: Canceling college football season over pandemic would be ‘tragic mistake’
As opposed to the tragedy of 160,000+ Americans dying over the past 6 months without any serious attempt at mitigation.
Rip Murdock (d2a2a8) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:33 am83. SarahW (08f5d7) — 8/11/2020 @ 8:58 am
Donald Trump didn’t interfere enough.
Mostly because he doesn’t understand how basically wrong so much of approval process is.
And all the Democrats want to do is to defer even more to the “experts.” There couldn’t be anything more wrong.
By the way, they are starting to use saliva tests.
https://news.wisc.edu/simpler-covid-19-test-could-provide-results-in-hours-from-saliva
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:39 amI doubt that sammeh, that sounds too much like theranos.
Narciso (7404b5) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:41 amAnd I don’t think the explanation is so simple as they’re trying to help certain companies.
The above – what I said – has been my opinion since the day I first heard about the process, which was, I think before the 1980s. Dr, Fauci wasn’t good in the 1980s, but the AIDS activists pushed him along. Unfortunately, they concentrated their efforts on AIDS and did not criticize the whole rotten system. It controls the whole world because no other country really approves any new drugs at all on their own.
Only surgery is free for experimentation, with consequences good and bad, and i the long run, the good probably outweighs the bad. Although sometimes stupid surgeriesc continue for decades.
Medical devices are also now regulated. There is a stranglehold. A stranglehold we absolutely cannot afford to maintain, or could not afford if this as a more serious disease. Did you know that even a severe case of Covid-19 could probably be cured by special dialysis? Ebola was.
https://time.com/3586271/ebola-treatment-dialysis-blood
And this would probably work for Covid too.
The system we have guarantees that any new treatment, mathematically must be expensive. And takes years to get anywhere. Decades in fact. The public doesn’t understand this..
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:42 amnarciso @94. No, no the saliva tests actually works. It is being used by the PGA. It does have more false results. although less than the nasal swabs.
https://www.newsweek.com/nba-mlb-pga-tour-switching-saliva-coronavirus-tests-1518278
The problem with Theranos was the samples were too small and they couldn’t be maintained pure enough to test for so many different things. Theranos just gave up on trying to perfect the system. It resorted to outright fraud.
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:50 amAnd we have social media getting ready to censor anything that goes counter to the established authorities. They’re using the World Health Association as their medical expert.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52388586
You know, like saying they have way overemphasized cleaning and downplayed spread from some people further away than 6 feet. And off label uses.
Doctors beg and plead for the WHO to change some of their advice, and they limit their requests.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/opinion/coronavirus-aerosols.html
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/11/2020 @ 9:57 amhttps://twitter.com/betsy_klein/status/1293180899081596929
Davethulhu (527049) — 8/11/2020 @ 10:02 amIndeed:
https://www.aier.org/article/we-need-a-principled-anti-lockdown-movement/amp/
Narciso (7404b5) — 8/11/2020 @ 10:15 amIt’s amazing to me that everyone here focuses on Trump and the federal government being responsible for all the U.S. coronona virus deaths while not saying a word about the actions of state and local governments. The data clearly shows that state and local govt actions had far more impact on corona virus fatalaties than anything the federal govt did or did not do. Why is everyone here so blind to the data?
1DaveMac (16cd0f) — 8/11/2020 @ 5:18 pmIf someone really is saying Donald Trump is responsible for every single American COVID death that is indeed amazing. But I don’t see that very often. Usually I see people say Trump’s failure, November to March mainly, is why things got so much worse here than they otherwise would have been.
Local governments do not have the ability to yank pros from Wuhan, trash talk the WHO, get in bed with Xi begging for help with Joe Biden while covering up some of the problem with the pandemic.
I think the data does show local governments could have an impact, but also cities, coasts, generally blue states with higher densities, they were screwed faster. Supposedly Kushner saw this quickly. That COVID would hit blue states first and worst, so this disaster could be used to make the argument you’re making (And may have read somewhere disreputable?). I don’t know who to believe when it comes to those kinds of things, but I do think it’s unfair to say there’s something about democrats that made COVID worse in cities.
Dustin (4237e0) — 8/11/2020 @ 5:33 pmIt is completely clear that actions taken by Cuomo and DeBlasio have had an extremely adverse impact. Other Blue state governors have also had more negative impacts. Even among blue states, there are significant differences in the effectiveness of govt actions. California was probably the first state to be infected and has very dense population centers, and yet the differences between New York and California are significant in response to Covid 19. Dustin, your hatred of Trump has severely impacted your critical thinking ability. When Trump shut down travel from China and Europe he was severely criticized by Democrats and the Media. Meanwhile, New York Health Authorities were saying go out and celebrate Lunar New Year and you give them a pass. And why are you accusing me of reading disreputable sources.? I actually study hard data and read real scientific papers. So where do you get off accusing me of that?
1DaveMac (16cd0f) — 8/12/2020 @ 2:12 amdumb
Dustin (4237e0) — 8/12/2020 @ 2:25 amYou can’t support your position any better than that?
1DaveMac (16cd0f) — 8/12/2020 @ 2:51 amDeaths per million:
New York – 1689
New Jersey – 1798
California – 270
Washington – 226
All governed by democrats, all coastal states, all among the first to be infected. Your claims are clearly false.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xRuxuHjBY4
Dustin (4237e0) — 8/12/2020 @ 3:28 amThere’s a lot I have about the cornavirus without hopefully, repeating myslf too much..
I;ll try to get around to that later.
But for now, here’s a article that illlustrates how stubborn the World Health Organization is about changing an of its :truth”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/health/coronavirus-aerosols-indoors.html
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/12/2020 @ 1:09 pmAnother article that says many people already had immunity when the virus first came because they had a cowpox version of the disease. (they were wrong about everything, including that)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/06/health/coronavirus-immune-cells.html
Now the question is: Why are they so slow about acknowledging this?
The immunity may not even come entirely from common-cold coronaviruses.
But children don’t have more memory T-cells as ths=is article stupidly goes on to say. They have less of them. But when they get an infection, they chirn out a greater variety of T-cells. That;s why they fight measles so much better than adults never exposed to it.
Sammy Finkelman (083d4c) — 8/13/2020 @ 11:38 amThat Kansas mask study was debunked due to fraudulent chart manipulation:
whembly (c30c83) — 8/13/2020 @ 11:40 amhttps://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1292121324819808263.html