[guest post by Dana]
The ad itself is good. It’s a marriage of hope and comfort during a difficult time. It’s what Americans want to hear from a president. It’s not high-tech ad with a thumping soundtrack and dramatic WWF-type narration. Rather it’s simple story everyone can relate to at some level as it focuses on the Covid concerns of Americans. The ad is well timed, the pacing is good, and the montage of images tugs at the heartstrings. But what I think really seals the deal is Biden’s compassionate narration. He’s telling a relatable story and he’s offering support and compassion. I can see the ad being viewed as a point of sanity and relief in the midst of Trump and his chaotic response to the pandemic. It’s also not hard to see this drawing in both undecided voters and voters who wouldn’t normally consider a Democratic candidate but are looking for someone with a basic knowledge of policy and procedure, White House experience, and frankly, maybe just longing for normalcy again.
Anyway, Biden is definitely branching out, as his campaign announced. It makes political sense:
This new TV spot is part of a four-state ad buy the Biden campaign announced Tuesday that also includes Arizona, North Carolina and Florida. In recent weeks, coronavirus cases have soared across the Sun Belt, with both Florida and Texas reporting record daily case numbers.
The campaign also intends to release digital videos of Biden calling families in those four states. And it plans to air Spanish language-captioned versions of the ad in Arizona, Florida and Texas on YouTube, Facebook and Univision.
About Texas specifically, where 38 electoral votes are ripe for the picking:
Public opinion surveys have shown an unexpectedly close race between Biden and Trump in Texas. The polling average from FiveThirtyEight now shows a tied contest, and a recent Dallas Morning News survey found Biden leading by 5 points — which, if accurate, would be a game changer for the election. In 2016, Trump won Texas by 9 points. Republicans have long depended on the state to win the White House. No Democrat has won Texas since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign deputy press secretary Samantha Zager poked fun at Biden’s efforts in the Lone Star State:
Democrats like to pretend Texas is on the table, but they know that’s a joke — just ask Governor Wendy Davis, Senator Beto O’Rourke, and President Hillary Clinton.