California Moves Toward A Slow Reopening of the State This Week
[guest post by Dana]
Given that number of state residents who have been hospitalized for coronavirus has remained stable, as well as the state continuing to build up its inventory of PPE and increased testing capacity, Gov. Newsom of California announced today that the state would start to reopen this week with conditions:
Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that California will allow some retail businesses to reopen with modifications as early as Friday, amid encouraging coronavirus benchmarks.
“We are entering into the next phase this week,” Newsom said in his daily press briefing Monday. “This is a very positive sign and it’s happened only for one reason: The data says it can happen.”
…
Those businesses that can reopen Friday will have to abide to restrictions, such as physical distancing and delivering orders at the curbside. Detailed guidelines about the Phase 2 reopening will be released on Thursday, according to Newsom.
While the retail businesses include clothing, sporting goods, books, toy, music stores and florist shops, it excludes malls, offices or in-house dining at restaurants.
Newsom is avoiding a one-size-fits-all mandate. Phase 2 will give local officials more leeway in deciding how to proceed with the re-opening of their cities. But any plans will have to meet a criteria established by the state, which includes:
… the capacity on testing, their capacity on tracing, the capacity on physical distancing and sanitation, and their capacity to protect the most vulnerable residents in their community.
Newsom is also planning to cover the statewide need for trackers and tracers of the disease:
Newsom shared his plan for a “tracing army” in the state — a training program led by the University of California Los Angeles and University of California San Francisco that will teach people how to trace and track the disease through a virtual academy.
Each recruit will go through 20 hours of training, 12 hours online and eight hours in person.
Approximately 3,000 people have been identified as tracers already and are set to begin their first training course, which goes online Wednesday, Newsom said. The first phase will train about 10,000 people, with a goal of reaching 20,000 tracers.
The governor warned, however, that if coronavirus cases increase, the state would intervene in the reopening process.
On a side note, here is a good look at how difficult it is for restaurant workers to follow their establishment’s checklist when guests are eating in-house. These are the guidelines from a regional chain of restaurants in Tennessee:
Temperature checks for every guest and employee before they enter.
Question every guest about potential COVID-19 symptoms or exposure to the coronavirus.
Ask people to take their food from the server trays themselves — and put it back on the trays when they’re done.
If they don’t want to do that, the server needs to place and remove the plates using “whatever means possible to distance themselves.”
Servers have to replace their gloves every time they service another table.
They have to wash their hands before replacing the gloves.
They have to wash their hands after handling money.
They have to wash their hands after every credit card transaction.
They have to wash their hands every time they return to the dining room.
A server’s personal observations on the feasibility of the guidelines:
A server at an O’Charley’s restaurant in Tennessee that reopened Thursday said very little of this is actually happening because of the lack of staff and resources.
“I don’t think we should have opened,” the server, who did not wish to be identified for fear of losing her job, told BuzzFeed News. “There’s no possible way for us employees to do what they’re asking us to do. It’s just not possible.”
The server said “we’re not doing the social distancing thing.”
“I can’t be 6 feet away,” she said, referring to customers.
She said she is wearing gloves and a mask, but the “masks we’re using are the ones we pretty much made ourselves.”
She handles all the money in the restaurant and said it was impossible to wash her hands after every transaction.
Servers are not replacing their gloves every time they service a different table, she said, adding, “It’s not even in the back of our minds.”
She said she does not have the time to wash her hands each time she runs from the kitchen to the dining room. And she said nobody’s temperature is being checked because the restaurant does not have thermometers.
–Dana
It will be interesting to see what California’s restaurants will look like when the state allows eat-in service to resume.
Dana (0feb77) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:13 pmBowing to Protest Pressure Newsom Announces Some Business Openings This Week
There, fixed that for you.
Syllabucks (97c12d) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:22 pmI don’t necessarily agree, Syllabucks. The state has to start reopening at some point in time, no? And given the status of other states that are not even ready to start a slow reopening, I would say that Newsom has taken the necessary time to talk with experts, and wait until the cases level off, and the ongoing need for PPE and medical equipment is being met. Further, as he points out, the quarantine has paid off, in that the numbers are stabilized.
Dana (0feb77) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:25 pm@1 If it were up to me I’d set up a system where people ordered through a tablet, the server brought it out and then people bussed their own table with some kind of panera like system where you throw away your own disposables, put your plates in the right plates pile, your bowls in the right bowls pile, your silverware in a bin and then left. People would put up with that even at mid-level restaurants during the crisis, even though they wouldn’t long term.
Nic (896fdf) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:27 pmFrom what I’ve seen, people are increasingly ignoring much of what Newsom has to say or has ordered re: the virus. At least in the area of the state we live in.
Colonel Haiku (d8affe) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:33 pmIf customers picked up their food from a counter like Panera, that might work. I’m not sure how it would work in non-Panera like settings. Of course for eateries that don’t have the pick-up counter space in place, it could run into a lot of costs to adapt to such a process.
Dana (0feb77) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:35 pm@5 They are definitely not ignoring Newsom’s instructions in my county, the one where my parents live, the one where I work, or the one where my bro lives and works (We are all in different counties and I work in a different county than I live in) Even my suburban neighborhood park is practically empty.
Nic (896fdf) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:40 pm@6. They could bring the food out on a big tray and put it at each table on one of those collapsible tray rests, let the table distribute it around, then they could pick up the tray.
Nic (896fdf) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:43 pmMy community has been the same, Nic. However, this weekend saw a big protest downtown calling for the city to reopen. Out of the 15 or so photos I saw in the newspaper, I’d guess that 98% of attendees were not observing any social distancing, nor were they wearing masks.
Dana (0feb77) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:47 pm@9 Sigh. If they were the only ones who would get sick I’d say to protest unsafely if they wanted to, but no, they would spread it to perfectly innocent people.
Nic (896fdf) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:50 pm10. And overwhelm the health care system. The police should photograph them, identify them from the drivers licence, state id, and gun permit, etc. databases, and then send the lists to all the hospitals with the option to turn them away if they show up with coronavirus.
nk (1d9030) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:58 pmProfessor Michael Levitt, Nobel Winner, Explains How Lockdown Will Kill More People Than COVID-19.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6Z8UMkKm_8
John (0dd617) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:59 pm11, ah dont even let them have the opportunity…give them the golden gatling gun treatment next time they bum rush a legislature
urbanleftbehind (0b87f2) — 5/4/2020 @ 6:06 pmWe Need to Shut Them Down
https://www.aier.org/article/we-need-to-shut-them-down/
John (0dd617) — 5/4/2020 @ 6:11 pm11… Just give ’em a choice: eat nothing but Chicago Deep Derp Pizza for a week, or 15 minutes in a glass enclosure filled with Murder Hornets.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/4/2020 @ 6:15 pmNewsom knows the peeps will not do Clampdown for much longer.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/4/2020 @ 6:17 pmnk (1d9030) — 5/4/2020 @ 5:58 pm
Ah, lists. How fond am I of lists.
felipe (023cc9) — 5/4/2020 @ 6:20 pmI love that tune, felipe.
nk (1d9030) — 5/4/2020 @ 6:38 pmThoughts and prayers going out to all the married men who’ve spent the last several months telling their wives…
“I’ll do that when I have some time…”
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/4/2020 @ 6:57 pmIt’s called The Hammer And The Dance. Not the tune. The lockdown and the reopening. At least that’s what they’re calling it in Germany. The lockdown was the hammer, and the dance is the step-by-step reopening.
nk (1d9030) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:00 pm@9-
RipMurdock (bdc76b) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:00 pmIsn’t that the point? The protesters are just following their president. They want a return to “normal”, not realizing “normal” has changed. Frankly, I hope they get their freedom, but we all may pay a price.
@11 That is certainly… A take? on what I said.
Nic (896fdf) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:01 pm21,
Yes, if it just impacted them, have at it. But it doesn’t and it won’t, and that is why it’s incredibly selfish and finishes any credibility they might have. And I think the protesters have a point, in so far as those who just want to be able to go back to work and provide for their families and keep their houses. But not wearing a mask or social distancing while crowded together, do very little to help their cause. I think they distract from their message.
Dana (0feb77) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:09 pmSo he’s right now, instead of being ridiculously misinformed 6 weeks ago, or at best, he didn’t know, but he minimized it then, so has he learned something, apparently not. Of course, his premise was that China was reporting all of the numbers accurately, so his model predicting the announced Chinese model was…like, not a good model.
Like all the dumbs, the success of social distancing and stay at home orders, means we didn’t need to do the thing that kept the cases low.
Just because he’s a smart guy, and worked with some other smart guys, doesn’t mean that he can’t be wrong. Really, really, wrong.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:11 pm“I’ll do that when I have some time…”
I wish. I was going crazy for something to do. I have thousands of books and every movie and TV show that can be streamed and I didn’t want to read or watch any of them.
I started baking bread. Crusty Italian mini-loaves. That’s how low I sank.
I bought a $14 knife from eBay just to practice sharpening a concave edge. It took a good edge, so I looked to see if I could turn into a pocket knife. At six inches closed and seven plus ounces it was still only good for the backpack or toolbox. I took off all the excess metal from the handle. Then I decided to pare down the width of the blade. I used a Dremel for a couple of cuts, but the rest was all hand files. Now, I look forward to a lot of sanding, polishing and honing, all by hand, from 120 grit to maybe 5000 buffing compound on plain cardboard and see just how good an edge I can get from that Chinese steel.
nk (1d9030) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:15 pmThe lockdown and the reopening. At least that’s what they’re calling it in Germany. The lockdown was the hammer, and the dance is the step-by-step reopening.
As long as they do it wearing lederhosen… slap dat damn virus away! https://youtu.be/bfcy2JBdSA0
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:17 pm25… I’m ashamed to admit that I have not done the rust repair one of our cars (this one’s 40 years old) has needed for some time. I must get on that and soon…
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:21 pm23. zOMG! The protesters aren’t wearing masks!
Gryph (08c844) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:29 pmFrom Klink’s link. Yeah Nobel winner Levitt guy isn’t a reliable source of info on this. Doesn’t mean I would be either. Though it helps me understand Trump’s bizarre decision making to see people give him miracle cures on a silver platter every day. They are never true, but his mind doesn’t work properly so he keeps buying into it.
And when a reporter asks Trump to address fear before the pandemic hits, Trump’s anger makes sense. To Trump, there was no pandemic to worry about and this was all just an attack on the economy (and Trump).
Dustin (e5f6c3) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:35 pmDo you even read what you post?
Better isn’t great, but better is better.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/4/2020 @ 7:50 pmBuzzfeed when people in Florida flock to the beaches and parks:
Florida’s governor allows beaches to reopen as Coronavirus cases in the state surpassed 25,000
Buzzfeed when people in New York flock to beaches and parks:
Is it OK to go to a park or a beach? We asked six experts
h/t – Chuck Ross
harkin (e7e3ee) — 5/4/2020 @ 8:15 pm_
“Our view is that there was some evidence of a degree of protection, but it wasn’t great,” he says. “So we still don’t effectively know if face masks in the community work.”
They keep Trump supporters from picking their noses and then touching things other people will touch. But you should wear disposal gloves too. I put them on before I get out of the car and take them off inside-out before I reach for my car keys to get in the car. It’s like washing your hands.
nk (1d9030) — 5/4/2020 @ 8:23 pmMy 24-year old daughter, Miss Montagu, is semi-happy. She’s in San Diego and she can surf and she can walk the beach, but can’t lay out on the beach or hit the bars on the beach.
Paul Montagu (b3f51b) — 5/4/2020 @ 8:42 pmIf you want to stay inside for fear of catching the virus, you have the right to do so. You do not have the right to tell others they must stop living their lives so you can feel safe.
NJRob (5c63cb) — 5/4/2020 @ 9:12 pmBut the health department and governors do.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/4/2020 @ 9:20 pmFor a finite period of time.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/4/2020 @ 9:55 pmFor as long as the virus remains a threat to public health, to be precise.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/4/2020 @ 10:41 pmServers have to replace their gloves every time they service another table.
They have to wash their hands before replacing the gloves.
They have to wash their hands after handling money.
They have to wash their hands after every credit card transaction.
They have to wash their hands every time they return to the dining room.
Utterly unworkable. Better is that they use gloves for their own protection, and customers use gloves for theirs, just as it is done in the grocery. People who handle money don’t handle food.
And where do they get those gloves?
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 5/4/2020 @ 10:47 pmProfessor Michael Levitt, Nobel Winner,
Biophysicist and Chemistry Prize winner. I wouldn’t argue with him on the biology or chemistry, but he has no more economics training than I do. I really can’t analyze what he says as it is a $*&%ing video. that I do not have the patience to watch, and cannot reflect on as it goes. Show me a transcript and I’ll consider it.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 5/4/2020 @ 10:54 pmI guess videos are all the rage now, as there are so many illiterates casting votes.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 5/4/2020 @ 10:55 pmThe police should photograph them, identify them from the drivers licence, state id, and gun permit, etc. databases, and then send the lists to all the hospitals with the option to turn them away if they show up with coronavirus.
Why not just put them in camps you *&*^ing fascist?
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 5/4/2020 @ 10:56 pmI find people who think we never needed a lockdown tedious, but I find the people who think it should continue indefinitely cowards or fascists. Maybe both.
Things that can’t go on, won’t, and this can’t go on.
I have lost people in this, and I am at risk, but I will not impoverish a generation to save a few. You CAN break things to the point that many many people die. No food to the cities for 10 days will accomplish that with ease.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 5/4/2020 @ 11:04 pm#41 was probably a bit unforgiving, but the comment I was reacting to was pretty terrible.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 5/4/2020 @ 11:06 pmWhy not just put them in camps you *&*^ing fascist?
Lack of resources. Involuntarily quarantining them would be the best solution by far, but we just don’t have the infrastructure. We can’t even do it for the mentally ill wandering the streets.
nk (1d9030) — 5/5/2020 @ 4:25 amKevin M (ab1c11) — 5/4/2020 @ 11:06 pm
It is good that you feel that you were a bit unforgiving because if anyone deserves a little lee-way, it is nk. I say this because, in my mind at least, the best way to view some of nk’s comments is to think he is really saying “you want to move the Overton Window? Ok, let’s go!” YMMV, but it has served me well.
felipe (023cc9) — 5/5/2020 @ 4:52 amWeren’t we talking about triaging just a week or two ago? Why should these people take your ICU bed and ventilator, Kevin? Why should they endanger your doctor, your nurse, your paramedic? If they want to live their lives, let them live them all the way to Judgment.
nk (1d9030) — 5/5/2020 @ 4:53 amAll these assholes, prepped for the Zombie Apocalypse, yammering about their rights and not giving a Trump about their responsibilities, they should move to Galtville and occupy themselves with applying Rearden metal to their randroids.
nk (1d9030) — 5/5/2020 @ 4:58 amWow, nk that comment was turgid bordering on tumid. Pardon me while I back away to a safe distance in anticipation of its explosion.
Still, I got yer back.
felipe (023cc9) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:14 am39/40, Thank You. Those off us that, pre-March 2020, worked in politically oppressive/opposite/sens8 work environments also knew the value of a transcript versus an auto-open video. And before you say “headphones”, that’s for my tunes.
urbanleftbehind (4ad812) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:22 amThank you, felipe, that will be my word of the day.
nk (1d9030) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:48 amIt’s not the heat, it’s the tumidity.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/5/2020 @ 6:14 amnk (1d9030) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:48 am
You’re welcome – it is poor compensation for all that you have taught me.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/5/2020 @ 6:14 am
HA! Good one.
felipe (023cc9) — 5/5/2020 @ 6:30 amThose people, they’re not asserting their rights. If all they wanted was to live their lives normally, they’d just go ahead and live their lives normally. What they want is for mommy to make it snow so they can build a snowman. They’re like Trump that way.
nk (1d9030) — 5/5/2020 @ 6:56 amNot that they’re alone. I looked up the significance of May 4th. It’s nothing more than [incestuous family making] Star Wars Day! I still can’t believe it! This country really has way too many people who need to be shoved out of their comfort zones.
nk (1d9030) — 5/5/2020 @ 7:08 amThe price of reopening the economy: tens of thousands of American lives
President Donald Trump now knows the price of the haunting bargain required to reopen the country — tens of thousands more lives in a pandemic that is getting worse not better.
It’s one he now appears ready to pay, if not explain to the American people, at a moment of national trial that his administration has constantly underplayed.
……
Despite those projections, two administration officials told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins the latest numbers are not currently expected to affect the White House’s plans for reopening the country.
…….
A new model from the University of Washington, previously used by the White House suggested that 134,000 Americans could now die by August — in a revised toll prompted by the likely impact of state openings. The total was more than double the same organization’s estimate last month.
A draft internal report by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention obtained by The New York Times buckled the White House narrative that the worst of the pandemic is passed and it’s time to get going again. It found that the daily death toll will reach about 3,000 by June 1, nearly double the current number.
RipMurdock (bdc76b) — 5/5/2020 @ 7:32 am……..
Trump says he knows ‘nothing’ about draft government document showing staggering jump in cases, deaths
President Trump said he knows “nothing” about a draft government report that forecasts that cases of the novel coronavirus will surge to 200,000 a day by June 1, and he called media coverage of it “fake news.”
…….
A copy of the document, first reported by the New York Times, was shared with The Washington Post.
“I know nothing about it. I don’t know anything about it,” Trump said in an interview Monday with the New York Post. “Nobody told me that. I think it’s — I think it’s false, I think it’s fake news.”
RipMurdock (bdc76b) — 5/5/2020 @ 7:39 am…….
The researcher who developed a model predicting a steep surge in the country’s coronavirus cases and deaths has said that he was not aware that his work, which “was not in any way intended to be a forecast,” had been drafted into a government report.
The data, first reported on Monday, warned that the U.S. would spike to 200,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths per day by June 1 — increases of 700 percent and 70 percent respectively. It was compiled into an interagency report and leaked first to the New York Times. In response to the Times report, the White House emphasized that the model was not developed by its coronavirus task force and therefore had not received the administration’s approval.
“This is not a White House document, nor has it been presented to the Coronavirus Task Force or gone through interagency vetting. This data is not reflective of any of the modeling done by the task force, or data that the task force has analyzed,” the White House said in a statement Monday.
Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins and the creator of the model, reinforced the government’s claim that the data was taken out of context. He explained that the report was a draft and delivered as a work-in-progress to officials within the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
“I had no role in the process by which that was presented and shown,” Lessler told the Washington Post. “It was not in any way intended to be a forecast.”
Lessler added that the projections depended largely on the government’s ability to reopen the country safely. “There are reopening scenarios where it could get out of control very quickly,” he admitted.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/researcher-behind-model-predicting-3000-daily-deaths-claims-it-was-not-intended-to-be-a-forecast/
Colonel Haiku (af8791) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:28 amhttps://www.cnsnews.com/blog/craig-bannister/poll-71-conservatives-say-its-time-us-get-back-work-69-liberals-disagree
Colonel Haiku (af8791) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:30 amPlease cite where in the Constitution you got that from. Thanks.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:32 amTenth Amendment, NJRob.
Patterico (115b1f) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:36 am@58, CH, what do the guidelines published by the white house say for re-opening now?
Time123 (c9382b) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:38 am59
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people
Whether you like it or not, public health/quarantine powers were possessed by the local and state governments in 1776, 1788, and every year since.
Kishnevi (2b0e71) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:38 amRead the whole thing:
Dana (0feb77) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:39 amAnti-vaccination leaders seize on coronavirus to push resistance to inoculation
RipMurdock (bdc76b) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:40 amMaybe you’ve seen the 9th and the 10th amendments? If not, look it up. Also the constitution defines Enumerated Powers as well as Article 1 Section 8 being the Necessary and Proper Clause. It works almost like there were intentions behind limiting the federal power and giving it to the states. Individual citizens have always had limited rights, based on that document that lots of people talk about but haven’t bothered to comprehend.
You’re specific state constitution may have some limits, but if you’re trying to say that the US constitution doesn’t grant the state power to do this, you are sorely misinformed.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:48 amTenth Amendment overrules the Thirteenth?
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:52 amAnd seriously, for those of you who believe that any serious situation allows the state government to suspend our rights for as long as they see fit, what stops them for doing that for anything they deem an emergency? CAGW anyone??
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 8:55 am>And where do they get those gloves?
employer is required to provide them and cannot reopen unless they do so.
i agree the standards in question are unworkable, but things like temperature checks, making sure only one person handles money, requiring servers to wear masks and gloves, etc, *are* workable. the restaurant isn’t doing them, and it should be fined for its failure.
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:16 amAll of our rights have some limits and balancing associated with them due to the fact that we live in a society with other people. These are new balances that we’re dealing with, but I don’t see any state in the union not trying to open up as quickly as they can.
Time123 (b87ded) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:25 am@69 was addressed to NJRob
Time123 (b87ded) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:26 am> Tenth Amendment overrules the Thirteenth?
what’s the argument that stay-at-home orders constitute slavery or involuntary servitude?
These paragraphs roughly summarizes the state of the law regarding state powers to control a pandemic:
—————————–
Cassell v. Snyders (US District Court Northern District of Illinois):
The Constitution does not compel courts to turn a blind eye to the realities of the COVID-19 crisis. For more than a century, the Supreme Court has recognized that “a community has the right to protect itself against an epidemic of disease which threatens the safety of its members.” Jacobson v. Commonwealth of Mass., 197 U.S. 11, 27 (1905); see Prince v. Massachusetts, 321 U.S. 158, 166–67 (1944) (“The right to practice religion freely does not include liberty to expose the community . . . to communicable disease.”). During an epidemic, the Jacobson court explained, the traditional tiers of constitutional scrutiny do not apply. Id.; see In re Abbott, 954 F.3d 772, 784 (5th Cir. 2020). Under those narrow circumstances, courts only overturn rules that lack a “real or substantial relation to [public health]” or that amount to “plain, palpable invasion[s] of rights.” Jacobson, 197 U.S. at 31. Over the last few months, courts have repeatedly applied Jacobson’s teachings to uphold stay-at-home orders meant to check the spread of COVID-19. See, e.g., Abbott, 954 F.3d at 783–85; Gish v. Newsom, No. EDCV20755JGBKKX, 2020 WL 1979970, at *5 (C.D. Cal. Apr. 23, 2020).
This is not to say that the government may trample on constitutional rights during a pandemic. As other judges have emphasized, Jacobson preserves the authority of the judiciary to strike down laws that use public health emergencies as a pretext for infringing individual liberties. See, e.g., Abbott, 954 F.3d at 800 (Dennis, J., dissenting) (citing Jacobson, 197 U.S. at 28–29)). Furthermore, Jacobson’s reach ends when the epidemic ceases; after that point, government restrictions on constitutional rights must meet traditionally recognized tests. And so, courts must remain vigilant, mindful that government claims of emergency have served in the past as excuses to curtail constitutional freedoms. See, e.g., Korematsu v. United States, 323 U.S. 214 (1944), abrogated by Trump v. Hawaii, — U.S. –, 138 S. Ct. 2392, 2423 (2018).
—————————–
So if you have evidence that the public health emergency is being used *pretextually* — that the rules being imposed are being imposed for the purpose of infringing individual liberties rather than for the purpose of protecting the public from a potentially fatal infectious disease —- you can bring a case. But in general, neutral, non-discriminatory rules that place severe burdens on liberty are *nonetheless constitutional* during a pandemic.
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:31 amTime123,
But everything we are doing is arbitrary because some have decided we must “do something.” Closing parks, beaches, opening them. Telling people they cannot go to get a haircut, but an abortion is fine. Certain medical procedures okay, others not. Go to a store and some products are available for sale, while others are blocked. Certain businesses are essential (based on what), but others aren’t.
It’s throwing stuff at a wall to pretend we are making a difference. Same thing with gloves which are mostly useless. Wash your hands. Don’t touch your face. Everything else just gives the appearance of safety, but does neither.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:33 amThe constitution was written at a time when there were epidemics like yellow fever which could kill more than a tenth of a city’s population in a few weeks. *Nobody* disputed the power of state governments to control those epidemics by shutting everything down until the crisis had passed.
The existence of those powers was understood to be essential to the existence of society itself. If they were being abused, the proper remedy was to throw the abusers out in the next election.
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:33 amAphrael,
where in the constitution does it say that? I don’t deny the courts have granted themselves the right to claim that, but it doesn’t say as much. They made it up out of whole cloth to justify their actions.
This fiction only exists by the consent of the governed. The long this goes on, the more that consent will be withdrawn.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:36 amExcept they didn’t do that aphrael. They quarantined sick people, not healthy people. During the 1918 Spanish Flu we didn’t shut down society to this degree. During other flu epidemics, we haven’t done this either. This is an unprecedented, totalitarian shutdown of society and is destroying the village to save it.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:37 amWhen you’ve destroyed the economy, have tens of millions unemployed and destitute, dependent on a “benevolent” government to survive, what do you think the next steps are?
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:38 amNJRob@75-
Not in Los Angeles in 1918:
……In Los Angeles, the first signs of trouble arrived in mid-September 1918, when sailors aboard a Navy ship in San Pedro fell mysteriously ill. By the end of the month, 55 students at Polytechnic High School in downtown L.A. had the bug, which eventually killed 675,000 in the United States and an estimated 50 million worldwide.
……
The city’s response in the coming months would be crafted largely by a headstrong North Carolinian, Dr. Luther Milton Powers. The doctor managed to remain in power through the tenures of at least half a dozen L.A. mayors.
Publicly, city Health Commissioner Powers called the cases “alleged influenza,” but he advised Mayor Frederick T. Woodman in private to prepare a campaign to stop an epidemic in Los Angeles, then a city of fewer than 600,000 souls.
By Oct. 11, the mayor had declared a state of emergency. Commissioner Powers ordered most public gathering places — including movie houses, theaters and pool rooms — closed as of 6 p.m. that night. Adding a peculiarly L.A. flavor, Powers told the city’s ascendant movie moguls they would have to stop filming mob scenes, according to the Michigan archive.
……
In the early-20th-century outbreak, Los Angeles stuck to its more rigorous response, despite considerable pushback. Religious leaders questioned the constitutionality of closing churches, and the Ninth Church of Christ Scientist, on South New Hampshire Street, reopened, only to see its leaders promptly arrested.
Los Angeles shut down its Liberty Day parade, while many other cities went ahead with the mass gatherings, exposing tens of thousands of people to others who were contagious. …..
L.A. theater owners protested that the shutdown should be even broader, to stop the virus more quickly. They demanded the closing of shops and department stores. But Powers thought such a comprehensive shutdown would be impractical. The stores remained open.
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:46 am…..
Church leaders demanded to be able to restore group worship, but the city insisted that indoor services be put off. And civic groups fought (somewhat successfully, back then) to get hotel rooms set aside for the poor and infirm.
……..
The constitution only limits the powers of states in particular, explicitly stated ways. It does not in any way limit the power of the states to control pandemics, as long as those controls are compliant with the explicitly stated limits on state power.
Note that i’m not saying the policies adopted were wise or good, just that they were generally within the power of the governments in question.
The idea that they *were not* within the power of the governments in question would mean that if there were a virus that killed fifty percent of those infected, thirty days after infection, and that people were infectious for ten days before it was possible to detect that they were infected, government could do *nothing* to prevent half of the population from dying.
The notion that it’s beyond state power to protect the public from that kind of infection is absurd on its face; protecting the public from epidemics is one of the fundamental basic reasons for the existence of a state in the first place.
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:49 amCon’td-
L.A.’s rate was 494 excess deaths per 100,000 residents, lower than that of many other American cities. With its shortened public distancing requirements and preoccupation with masks, San Francisco suffered 673 excess deaths per 100,000.
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:49 amhttps://pjmedia.com/instapundit/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tombellcurvebend-600×463.jpg
Colonel Haiku (af8791) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:50 amAphrael,
so you don’t believe in the incorporation doctrine?
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:54 amHow Fifty US Cities Reacted to the 1918 Pandemic
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:55 amhttps://news.trust.org/item/20200505121915-v51r0
34% unemployment? We must kill the patient to save him. Welcome to Venezuela.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 9:56 amhttps://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-newyork.html#
From your own link Rip, they didn’t enact the draconian measures we have done. Staggered business openings, kept schools open, quarantined the sick, explained to the healthy how to avoid becoming sick.
What they didn’t do was shut everything down and enact draconian measures to ensure compliance.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:01 amOf course I believe in the incorporation doctrine.
I just don’t believe that an order compelling people to stay at home during a pandemic violates any of the constitutional amendments.
The right to assembly, for example, has always been understood to be suspendable during certain kinds of emergencies. Nobody would have allowed a large march during a Yellow Fever outbreak. The limit is implicit in the text in exactly the same way that there’s an implicit limit on “freedom of speech” which doesn’t allow you to yell ‘fire’ in a crowded theatre (unless, of course, there’s actually a fire).
A state order closing movie theatres for the duration of the pandemic doesn’t violate the first amendment or any other amendment. A state order closing “non-essential” businesses doesn’t violate any amendment at all. A state order prohibiting you from moving around during a pandemic doesn’t violate any amendment, etc.
The only cases which come even close are the cases brought by churches, and even there, it’s been well established in American law for a generation that the first amendment does not provide a religious exemption from generally applicable laws. Justice Scalia *himself* agreed that the use of a drug in a religious ritual did not exempt the user from laws prohibiting its use or denying him unemployment benefits based on the use, even though he maintained that he was required by his religion to do so. The same reasoning applies here — a generally applicable, nondiscriminatory order that doesn’t single out religious services for worse treatment than secular purposes *does not violate the first amendment*.
So what’s the specific constitutional violation you allege that shelter in place orders commit? As far as I can tell, you’re reacting to orders you don’t like and which you think are bad policy by alleging that they must be unconstitutional. But the entire body of American history and law say they are.
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:04 amEverything we’ve done is absolutely not arbitrary. Not every decision was correct, useful in hindsight or balanced, but they’ve all been focused around stopping the spread of CV19.
-Elective medical procedures are stopped to keep healthy ppl away from hospitals we thought would be contagion zone and conserve PPE.
-Haircuts can wait.
-MI paused the sale of garden supplies due to a very specific problem, and the pause is now over.
I’m not saying i agree with every decision, but every time I’ve dug in I’ve found there was at least some plausible reasoning behind what they were trying to do. You seem to be taking a bunch of things and saying “this makes now sense” without looking deeply into the decision making process. In some cases governors started off biased towards safety and have been quickly backing off as more information is available.
Time123 (c9382b) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:04 amYou give the benefit of the doubt to government and think they will use their power benevolently. I don’t.
Why can haircuts wait? Why are abortions essential? Why do you think the restrictions in Michigan were correct?
They are arbitrary. A business can open and people can decide if they want to “risk” going to that business. Freedom of choice. What happened to it?
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:40 amMeanwhile,
https://www.thedailybeast.com/texans-brace-for-a-covid-19-explosion-just-days-after-reopening
Gov. Abbott may regret his rush to reopen.
Gawain's Ghost (b25cd1) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:41 amAphrael, our American founding says otherwise. Our repeal of Korematsu says otherwise. Our war against slavery says otherwise. Our battle for civil rights says otherwise.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:42 amThe number of unemployed who are destroying their life savings and will end up destitute and dependent on the government for survival says otherwise.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:43 amhttps://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/courage-its-in-short-supply.php
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:48 amI repeat my challenge above: can you name the specific constitutional provision which you think is violated by these orders?
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:56 am@84-
Overall, from September 15 through November 16 – the period of New York’s epidemic – the city experienced nearly 147,000 cases influenza and pneumonia, which resulted in 20,608 deaths.
May be if they had they wouldn’t have lost 20,600 citizens.
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:57 amI think the 1st (specifically speech, religion and assembly), 2nd (states that restrict firearms purchase, use or practice), 8th (fines for practicing constitutional rights), 13th (requiring healthy people to quarantine is defacto imprisonment), and 14th (due process and equal rights).
Of course, I’m not a lawyer, so parse it all you will. Some arguments are better than others for each case.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:02 am> the finding is that a majority (often a large majority) of infected people are asymptomatic.
yes. everyone knows this.
but here is the counterpoint:
new york state’s surveillance data says 19.9% of new york city has indications that they have been infected.
new york city’s population is 8.4 million. That means 1,596,000 infections in new york city.
new york city has experienced 19,415 confirmed deaths. if the surveillance data is correct, that means that 1.2% of the people who have been infected in new york city have died.
if that infection fatality rate holds elsewhere, not only is it 60-120 times the infection fatality rate of the flu (which it would be), but also — if we need 60% infection to get herd immunity, it implies 2.3 million deaths nationwide.
you can argue with particular policies. you can say a given city or state’s response is unjustified given local data. those are perfectly reasonable arguments.
but the argument that the state has no power to order people to not put *other people* at risk for a disease for which there is a credible evidentiary basis for a one percent infection fatality rate is simply an unreasonable argument. protecting the public from this sort of disaster is *one of the fundamental purposes for the existence of the state*.
[yes, there are reasons do dispute the data. but they’re not definitive, and it’s reasonable for state authorities to take these data at face value, just as it’s reasonable for state authorities to take the reasons for disputation at face value. neither the constitution nor the law compel the state to favor any particular set of disputed data over another one, in these circumstances].
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:03 amCoronavirus in the U.S.: An Unrelenting Crush of Cases and Deaths
……Coronavirus in America now looks like this: More than a month has passed since there was a day with fewer than 1,000 deaths from the virus. Almost every day, at least 25,000 new coronavirus cases are identified, meaning that the total in the United States — which has the highest number of known cases in the world with more than a million — is expanding by between 2 and 4 percent daily.
Rural towns that one month ago were unscathed are suddenly hot spots for the virus. It is rampaging through nursing homes, meatpacking plants and prisons, killing the medically vulnerable and the poor, and new outbreaks keep emerging in grocery stores, Walmarts or factories, an ominous harbinger of what a full reopening of the economy will bring.
……
“If you include New York, it looks like a plateau moving down,’’ said Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine. “If you exclude New York, it’s a plateau slowly moving up.”
…….
Dakota County, Neb., which has the third-most cases per capita in the country, had no known cases as recently as April 11. Now the county is a hot zone for the virus.
Dakota City is home to a major Tyson beef-processing plant, where cases have been reported. And the region, which spreads across the borders of both Iowa and South Dakota, is dotted with meat-processing plants that have been a major source of work for generations. The pattern has repeated all over: Federal authorities say that at least 4,900 meat and poultry processing workers have been infected across 19 states.
…..
Trousdale County, Tenn., another rural area, suddenly finds itself with the nation’s highest per capita infection rate by far. A prison appears responsible for a huge spike in cases; in 10 days, this county of about 11,000 residents saw its known cases skyrocket to 1,344 from 27.
……
Infectious-disease experts are troubled by perceptions that the United States has seen the worst of the virus, and have sought to caution against misplaced optimism.
“I don’t see why we expect large declines in daily case counts over the next month,” Trevor Bedford, a scientist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center who has studied the spread and evolution of the virus, wrote on Twitter. He added, “There may well be cities / counties that achieve suppression locally, but nationally I expect things to be messy with flare-ups in various geographies followed by responses to these flare-ups.”
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:04 am…….
Arbitrary means to be based on random choice or personal whim, rather than any reason or system. That’s not what these are. Some I think are wrong; such as banning drive in church services while allowing drive through fast food. But that makes them badly decided, not arbitrary.
Others, such as categorizing alcohol sales as essential but haircuts as non-essential I agree with. Even if I’m wrong, there’s a reason behind the decision. Alcoholics who go into withdrawal would consume medical services. That might not be a good reason, but it’s not arbitrary.
The rights we were able to exercise in March were constrained by countless rules that attempted to balance competing legitimate needs. In some cases, such as balancing our right to bear arms with the public safety, there’s a lot of disagreement about where to draw that line. On other cases, such as balancing our right to free assembly with public safety concerns around the fire code, there was no disagreement.
Your point about personal choice is a good one, but much like rules around disposing of hazardous chemicals, my personal choice has direct health impacts on others.
Time123 (b87ded) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:04 amOr you can use some common sense and put precautions in place for high risk people (41% of deaths in elderly care facilities) and allow the rest of the population to go about its business while using mild safety measures.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:08 amI think the 13th amendment says you can’t have slaves or indentured servitude unless it’s part of a criminal punishment…not sure that applies here even under the most tortured reasoning.
Time123 (b87ded) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:10 amThat’s a perfectly defensible mitigation strategy. It’s not the one that most states have used, and it’s not what the Trump administration has recommended. But the decision that your proposal isn’t optimal for some reason doesn’t mean that your rights are being trampled. It means the decision makers disagreed with you, and you free to vote for different officials.
Time123 (b87ded) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:13 amGotta get back to work. Back later.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:13 amThank you for #94.
Here are some thoughts as a lawyer.
First amendment (speech, press) — shelter in place orders do not abridge the freedom of speech or the freedom of the press; you remain free to say what you want and to publish what you want.
First amendment (assembly) — the “right of the people peacably to assemble” is suspendable in an emergency as long as the restrictions are tied to the duration and locality of emergency, and was understood to be suspendable at the time the language was written. the state can forbid you from assembling in front of the statehouse during a category three hurricane, or during the period immediately after the hurricane during which there are still dangerous conditions. it can forbid you from assembling on the streets during a yellow fever outbreak, and it can forbid you from assembling on the streets during this pandemic. the restrictions must be lifted as soon as the emergency has passed. furthermore, this right is never as absolute as anyone thinks it is — the government can *generally* impose restrictions on the time, manner, and place as long as they are content neutral — you can’t assemble in the middle of an interstate freeway, you can’t assemble at 1am, and you can’t assemble and use a concert hall sound system to broadcast in the middle of a residential neighborhood. *as long as the restrictions are lifted at the end of the crisis*, there is no issue here. check back in a few months.
First amendment (petition): the right of the people “to petition the Government for a redress of grievances” is less clear. Would a rule limiting such petitioning to certain fora be fine? The courts have approved limiting petitioning to so-called “first amendment zones”, which suggests that some limits are ok. But I don’t think this has generally been litigated. That said, a rule requiring petition protests to comply with social distancing and mask rules is *entirely* legal as it imposes a de minimis infringement at best.
First amendment (religion): the right of the people to the free exercise of religion is certainly infringed by these orders, but no more so than it is by orders making it a criminal act to engage in sacramental religious activities of which the majority disapproves. If a state can ban the use of peyote despite its use in religious rituals, it can ban in person gatherings even if required for religious rituals. The state *may not* single out religious gatherings, and it may not treat them worse than similarly situated secular gatherings. But the fact that your religion requires you to do something which is generally forbidden by law does not cause an automatic exemption from the law, and the fact that a generally applicable law bans something that some religions require does not make the law automatically unconstitutional.
Second Amendment — I agree that they cannot single out firearms or ammunition and ban the sale of those as long as they are allowing sales of other goods. That is discriminating against the exercise of a constitutional right, and since nobody is banning all sales, nobody can ban these sales. Practice, though — if a state has a general rule prohibiting gatherings of more than three people outside the home, the fact that the right to bear arms is fundamental does not exempt practices involving fifty people from the generally applicable rule.
Eighth Amendment — while the eighth amendment prohibits “excessive” fines and bail, the burden of proof is on the person challenging to demonstrate that they are excessive. I agree in principle that a case could be brought but disagree in practice that any of the fines I’ve heard of are excessive.
Thirteenth Amendment — the thirteenth amendment says:
> Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.
It says nothing about imprisonment. Quarantine orders are not slavery or involuntary servitude. THe entire amendment is completely off topic.
Fourteenth Amendment (equal rights) — *of course* if a state imposes a stay at home order which discriminates between people based on their race, national origin, or religion, it is unconstitutional. There isn’t a single state order anywhere that has done that.
There *are* allegations that certain state orders treat religious gatherings more harshly than secular gatherings of the same nature. Those cases are generally proceeding through the courts without being dismissed out of hand. Some of them are succeeding, some are failing — but even in the case where the challenges succeeds, the restraining orders issued by the courts are against the specific aspects of the order giving rise to the discrimination, *not* to the order in general. The basic power to issue the order to stay at home is never questioned by these court decisions, merely the discriminatory application.
Fourteenth amendment (procedural due process) — the key thing in procedural due process is that proper procedure must be followed. What procedure is proper depends on the circumstances. In the case of a state of emergency declared due to an infectious disease, the required procedure is very, very basic — it has to be, because there simply isn’t time for a more complicated procedure. Time is of the essence, three days of procedural delay could make an 8x difference in the number of deaths. My sense is generally states have followed their required procedures, although California is the only one that I can attest from personal knowledge has done so.
Fourteenth amendment (substantive due process) — I think there’s a strong argument that substantive due process would prohibit anything remotely resembling these orders absent an emergency, although I think almost many conservatives who find themselves making such an argument are hypocrites of the highest order given their objection to the use of substantive due process in the chain of cases involving griswold and lawrence. *That said*, in an infectious disease emergency, as long as the orders are durationally tied to the emergency and are reasonably believed to be helpful in controlling the emergency, and as long as they don’t single out disfavored communities or disfavored practices in a pretextual manner, there is no problem.
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:28 am>Or you can use some common sense and put precautions in place for high risk people (41% of deaths in elderly care facilities) and allow the rest of the population to go about its business while using mild safety measures.
That’s a *policy decision*. The constitution and the law do not compel states to adopt your preferred policy.
If you want to discuss what policy would be best, that’s a fine discussion to have. But if we’re talking about what is constitutionally mandated, the existence of alternative policies doesn’t make this policy unconstitutional.
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:29 amRipMurdock, at 93:
>Overall, from September 15 through November 16 – the period of New York’s epidemic – the city experienced nearly 147,000 cases influenza and pneumonia, which resulted in 20,608 deaths.
Interestingly, NYC has had almost as many deaths from covid19 as it did during that part of the influenza pandemic.
There are two ways to take this:
* the lockdown orders were ineffective and pointless as we had almost as many deaths in two months with them as we did in two months of the influenza pandemic without them
* the lockdown orders were critically important and without them we would have had multiple times the number of deaths as we did during that part of the influenza pandemic, in an equivalent amount of time
it’s very, very, very difficult to *prove* which of these is the right interpretation with the data we currently have. many of the people opposed to the lockdowns will argue the first, most of the people in support of the lockdowns will argue the second, but how can we know which is right until we have more data?
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:31 amWhat aphrael said about the applicability of the various amendments.
Paul Montagu (45ec23) — 5/5/2020 @ 12:17 pmThe only right really being curtailed here is the one on peaceable assembly. It seems to me that the way to challenge it is the Due Process Clause and, since IANAL, I couldn’t say whether the 5th or 14th or both amendments apply. But bottom line, we should be afforded due process in situations where our rights and freedoms are being curtailed. However, it would be a challenge to test in court because, by the time it gets to court, pandemic’s over and the case is mooted.
U.S. companies cut thousands of workers while continuing to reward shareholders during pandemic
Since the coronavirus pandemic was declared, Caterpillar has suspended operations at two plants and a foundry, Levi Strauss has closed stores, and toolmaker Stanley Black & Decker is planning layoffs and furloughs.
Steelcase, an office furniture manufacturer, and World Wrestling Entertainment have also shed employees.
While thousands of their workers are filing for unemployment benefits, these companies rewarded their shareholders with more than $700 million in cash dividends. They are not alone. As the pandemic squeezes big companies, executives are making decisions about who will bear the brunt of the sacrifices, and in at least some cases, workers have been the first to lose, even as shareholders continue to collect.
…..
Caterpillar announced on March 26, that because of the pandemic, it was “temporarily suspending operations at certain facilities.” Two plants, in East Peoria, Ill., and Lafayette, Ind., were coming to a halt, as well as a foundry in Mapleton, Ill., according to news reports.
About two weeks later, the company said it would be giving shareholders $500 million in cash dividends.
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 5/5/2020 @ 12:36 pm…..
Similarly, Levi Strauss announced April 7 that the company would stop paying store workers, and about 4,000 are now on furlough. On the same day, the company announced that it was returning $32 million to shareholders.
……
aphreal, thank you for 102, good read.
Time123 (b87ded) — 5/5/2020 @ 12:51 pm85. aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 10:04 am
Court tend to go by the principle that anything done for public health reasons is
legal.
This is under the principle that where unlimited or unspecified power exists, it is at the level of the states. And these are usually supposed to be, in fact necessary. It’s a shortcut. In the past a number of bad things have been done under this kind of authority.
But for it to be true that it is necessary at least 95% of the possible governors in such a situation would do the same thing. Otherwise it is hard to argue it is necessary.
Most or all states have enacted laws giving the governor the power to do emergency things. These executive orders always cite state laws.
Fortunately, most state governors don’t want to be dictators.
Uinited States attorney general William Barr is prepared to argue that certain orders by governors may violate constitutional rights in certain circumstances, but he hasn’t found any yet. (it’s a shot across the bow – he’d be looking for situation where you could say there;s no actual justfication for a decree.
I think you could actually single out what kind of services are offered. Loud singing or simultaneous praying out loud by everyone in an enclosed poorly ventilated space lit by artificial light is one of the more dangerous things you can do in this epidemic.
Sammy Finkelman (ea6ca0) — 5/5/2020 @ 1:04 pm57. Colonel Haiku quoting something from National Review:
Rush Limbaugh was of the opinion that this document was created in order to be leaked.
Given to the New York Times not the Coronavirus Task Force.
Sammy Finkelman (ea6ca0) — 5/5/2020 @ 1:21 pm97. Time123 (b87ded) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:04 am
Most wrong: Banning visits by family members to long term care facilities.
This had very very deadly consequences, which were entirely foreseeable to anybody with common sense who understood how the world works..
There was nobody to raise the alarm, or, in some cases, take their family members out.
Sammy Finkelman (ea6ca0) — 5/5/2020 @ 1:25 pmTrump Attacks Female CBS Reporters for Being ‘Angry’ at Briefings, Laments They Are Not More Like ’50s TV Housewife
……
In an Oval Office interview with the New York Post Monday, Trump went after CBS White House correspondents Weijia Jiang and Paula Reid — both of whom he’s previously berated in the briefing room.
“It wasn’t Donna Reed, I can tell you that,” Trump said — lamenting what he deems to be the journalists’ dissimilarity to the actress who starred in an eponymous sitcom in the late ’50s and early ’60s. In The Donna Reed Show, Reed played amiable housewife and mother Donna Stone — a character who cheerfully ran her household and doted on her children.
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 5/5/2020 @ 1:47 pmaphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 11:03 am
No it’s higher.
The week of April 20 it was a little over 21%
Last week it was a little over 25%.
And the antibody test developed by New York State is tilted in favor of false negatives. I think they disregard the weakest indication of antibodies.
Higher. Most of these infections so mild they could amount to vaccinations. But they may have happened because of the social distancing and the masks etc.
if that infection fatality rate holds elsewhere, not only is it 60-120 times the infection fatality rate of the flu (which it would be), but also — if we need 60% infection to get herd immunity, it implies 2.3 million deaths nationwide.
If there are on;y 4 times as many left to infect that wuld be 1 in 125. That’s less than 1% but close.
But there may be a difference depending on the dose. All this social distancing is tilting things toward less serious infections.
It’s not, and canot be, a standard figure.
Dose matters – big droplets vs small droplets – and whether somebody gets infected numerous times or only once matters.
In nursing homes, in meatpacking plants, or on cruise ships, or any place where you had the same people meeting indoors – indoors matters – over and over again, people got exposed numerous times. There was more for the body to fight against.
Sammy Finkelman (ea6ca0) — 5/5/2020 @ 1:52 pmI’m shocked!
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 5/5/2020 @ 1:53 pmThank you aphrael. I don’t agree with the conclusions, but I appreciate the time you took to post them. I am beyond wary of any who think our rights can be balanced by tests and suspended without a time of war (aka suspension of habeas corpus ).
Too easy to decide our rights are man made and not God given that way.
NJRob (83aad7) — 5/5/2020 @ 4:56 pmAnd just a reminder that you cannot extrapolate deaths based on current statistics because the death rate drastically skews old compared to the infection rate.
NJRob (83aad7) — 5/5/2020 @ 4:58 pmThe country has been invaded, and the invader is killing people indiscriminately.
People who ignore social distancing, refuse to use masks and gather in large crowds are giving aid and comfort to this enemy and helping it kill more Americans.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:07 pmRob, remember suspension of habeas corpus means you’re not allowed to go to a judge and make your case. I have yet to hear of anything like that happening now.
Kishnevi (9dfc8c) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:09 pmThat’s a slippery slope, Dave. The executive branches of our government are powerful enough as it is without being given war powers to combat the spread of diseases.
Leviticus (6159e1) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:14 pm> “without being given war powers to combat the spread of diseases.”
powers they have *always had* since *before the foundation of the republic* and which have been repeatedly reaffirmed by the courts.
we’re not giving them new powers, here.
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:18 pm>I think you could actually single out what kind of services are offered. Loud singing or simultaneous praying out loud by everyone in an enclosed poorly ventilated space lit by artificial light is one of the more dangerous things you can do in this epidemic.
As long as it’s content neutral. Which is to say: you can’t prohibit indoor religious singing when you aren’t prohibiting indoor commercial choir practices.
aphrael (7962af) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:20 pmThis disease has already killed more Americans than the number of combat deaths in World War I, Korea and Vietnam. In a few days it will pass the number of Confederate combat deaths in the Civil War.
At what point should we start to be concerned?
Dave (1bb933) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:24 pmaphrael – what if these powers had been invoked a year ago to combat influenza? How would that have borne up to constitutional scrutiny, and how would you have felt about it if they had survived constitutional scrutiny?
(I know that this virus is far worse than influenza. I’m just curious about your thoughts about where the line is.)
Leviticus (6159e1) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:27 pmSame questions for Dave, also curious about Dave’s thoughts.
Leviticus (6159e1) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:27 pmEmergency measures are unnecessary to combat influenza, since effective vaccines exist.
Dave (1bb933) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:31 pmBut you can use your finger and point at a literal dead body. Reality exists, you keep concocting scenarios that don’t exist, to justify a fundamental misunderstanding of what your argument actually is.
That leaves 59% that aren’t, so the majority, are they trying to get infected.
Also, the Trump administration published a plan to reopen, and ignored it immediately. No, not ignored, actively worked to undermine it.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/5/2020 @ 5:36 pmTrump has, or is about to, abandon efforts to improve things medically because he’s launched Operation Warp Speed to get a vaccine ready by the end of the year and is convinced he bullied the researchers into it.
https://www.biospace.com/article/operation-warp-speed-highlights-14-covid-19-vaccines
Now he wants to shut down (not tomorrow) the Mike Pence headed Coronavirus task force (news to Dr. Fauci) and replace it with another focused on getting the economy moving again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/white-house-considers-phasing-out-coronavirus-task-force-source-says.html
He knows some more Americans might die this way, but says the American people should consider themselevs warriors (and we know that in combat some soldiers die. Of course he doesn’t mean British World War I level casualties, but more like World War II American casualties)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-he-views-americans-as-warriors-amid-coronavirus
Sammy Finkelman (375edc) — 5/5/2020 @ 6:18 pmYou keep refusing to acknowledge that our rights are already balanced against other legitimate concerns.
Time123 (441f53) — 5/6/2020 @ 5:32 amCan you please name me 2 absolute rights that are not?
“ Emergency measures are unnecessary to combat influenza, since effective vaccines exist.”
– Dave
Thousands of people still die every year from influenza. Are you saying you think the invocation of war powers to combat influenza would be unconstitutional?
Leviticus (6159e1) — 5/6/2020 @ 6:08 amNever mind influenza. What about obesity?
nk (1d9030) — 5/6/2020 @ 6:20 amAdolf Newsom will see his dreams of being POTUS turn to ashes.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/6/2020 @ 7:21 amSeriously, the one positive thing about President Trump’s Coronavirus is that it has (I know it’s temporary) all the diplomates who tell us not to eat, not to drink, not to smoke, not to defrost Antarctica, not to … you know, sidelined out of sight and out of mind. I could Google three (four if we count the Frenchman) quacks promoting chloroquine. There are thousands and thousands of those other kooks with degrees. Imagine if they had their way with us.
nk (1d9030) — 5/6/2020 @ 8:32 amFor you Time123.
https://www.breitbart.com/border/2020/05/05/watch-feeding-my-kids-is-not-selfish-texas-salon-owner-tells-judge-after-violating-lockdown/
You must accept the rules of your betters and bow down to them.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/05/wisconsin-sup-ct-justice-isnt-states-lockdown-order-the-very-definition-of-tyranny/
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/6/2020 @ 9:34 amBoth stories are frustrating, but i don’t see how they impact the question I brought up previously.
Time123 (66d88c) — 5/6/2020 @ 9:38 amIf feed my kids was a valid exemption, a lot of drug dealers, muggers, and ladies of the night would not be in jail.
Kishnevi (73b7f7) — 5/6/2020 @ 9:45 amI don’t see where the government can tell us we are subjects to the state and at the mercy of their whims for our lives.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/6/2020 @ 9:49 amWe don’t “elect” kings. They are our representatives not our rulers.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/6/2020 @ 9:50 amDo you feel this way about product safety laws? occupancy rules pertaining to fire safety? Food and Drug laws?
Time123 (441f53) — 5/6/2020 @ 9:55 am132.
The general power of a state to make such laws, is pre-constitutional. There might be something in the U.S. constitution that prohibits some things (for instance “equal protection of the laws” – it has to be applied impartially/
If the judge means the Wisconsin constitution:
https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/constitution/wi
I can;t find it among the pwoers of the legislature or executive. I find this in the annotations to Section 13:
Police power is considered a general power to make laws for the good of people.
Powers of states do not need to be enumerated. Not so the federal government, or localities.
The specific granting of authority to a governor has an answer:
https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/statutes/statutes/323/II/10
All states probably have such laws.
It is limited to 60 days in Wisconsin, and the legislature, in joint session, can repeal it without the governor being able to veto it.
This still does not tell you where he gets authority to order businesses shut.
That’s maybe here:
Asserted here anyway
https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/misc/lc/information_memos/2020/im_2020_01
outbreaks and epidemics.
Sammy Finkelman (375edc) — 5/6/2020 @ 10:19 am“Congress shall make no law…” is pretty plain to me.
That being said, a reminder to you history buffs out there that the federalists were the ones who didn’t want the Bill of Rights primarily because they thought it wasn’t necessary, and that enumerating rights by its very nature abridges those rights (which is why the 9th and 10th amendments were included with the other eight, but I digress).
The view of our framers was that any power not enumerated in the constitution itself was reserved to the states and the people therein. By that yardstick, probably 98%+ of spending and activity by the federal government is unconstitutional. In the CV19 regime, things have gone from bad to worse by that measure.
The very idea that “safety” as a function of government (on any level) is “pre-constitutional” smacks of the idea that we might as well not have a constitution at all anymore. If the government can do anything for our safety at any level, there is no practical reason anymore to pretend that we are constraining it.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/6/2020 @ 10:25 amTime123,
like a famous judge said about adult content, I know it when I see it.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/6/2020 @ 10:29 amWell said Gryph.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/6/2020 @ 10:32 amThere are thousands and thousands of those other kooks with degrees. Imagine if they had their way with us.
Yes, now apply that to the kooks with a JD, who have passed the bar…
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/6/2020 @ 10:35 amAnd to those who would point out to me that the states have this power if the federal government doesn’t, let me also point out to you folks that the states have constitutions of their own, many of which mirror the federal constitution. These governors are violating their own states’ constitutions in these unconstitutional (at the state level) actions, as are the city councils and mayors who pass the local ordinances.
Gryph (08c844) — 5/6/2020 @ 10:44 amThat’s nice. Now, how exactly does that limit the power of a State (Ohio, Wisconsin…) in a pandemic? The Constitution of the United States of America, and the State Constitutions specifically define this, as has been pointed out a few hundred times whenever you make this faulty argument. If you don’t like it, there’s a process to amend both, go forth and change it, then your argument may have merit.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/6/2020 @ 10:46 amSounds like status quo bias to me. Don’t have more to add to this.
Time123 (441f53) — 5/6/2020 @ 11:10 amTime123,
not really. It’s exactly the same as anyone who supports the governor to singley-handedly restrict citizens’ movements and claim he alone knows what is right.
I’m pointing out the hypocrisy of that belief.
NJRob (4d595c) — 5/6/2020 @ 11:25 am@146. No. You’re acting as if balancing decision that have been made in the past don’t count for some reason and that balancing decisions being made now are a categorical violation of our rights. But you’re either unable or unwilling to address that head on so I don’t see what else to say.
Time123 (441f53) — 5/6/2020 @ 11:32 am146… the politicians reveal themselves, NJ Rob, when they unleash their Inner Stalin and issue capricious, nonsensical orders.
Voters will remember, come the 3rd of November…
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/6/2020 @ 11:43 am@148, so you’re not voting for Trump because he’s capricious and nonsensical?
Time123 (66d88c) — 5/6/2020 @ 11:56 amI don’t think you can use balancing tests to deprive people of their God given rights any more than you can pass a law legalizing slavery and declaring it legitimate.
NJRob (139fb2) — 5/6/2020 @ 1:00 pmDo think religious practices that involve the consumption of illegal drugs should be protected by the first amendment?
What the religious practice is for a religion that was founded yesterday and looks a lot like it was made up as an excuse to do drugs? Let’s say it’s “Time123’s church smoking crack and having a good time” But I swear up and down that I’m not just doing this to sell crack.
Time123 (441f53) — 5/6/2020 @ 1:28 pmIs it your position that the constitution protects human sacrifice, pedophilia and use of illegal narcotics in the practice of religion?
That it protects SWATing as a form of free speech?
That a military draft is never constitutional?
If not, why not?
Dave (1bb933) — 5/6/2020 @ 1:31 pmLuckily for the rest of US, there were other people writing the Constitution that didn’t agree with John Adams.
Thomas Jefferson
Since Jefferson’s idea allowed for Adams to be himself, who won the argument? Establishment of religion is NOT in the constitution, freedom of religion is.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 5/6/2020 @ 2:36 pmLet’s say it’s “Time123’s church smoking crack and having a good time” But I swear up and down that I’m not just doing this to sell crack.
Crack is wack, son. Humble yourself before the Lord, and he will lift you up higher than booger sugar.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/6/2020 @ 2:43 pmhttps://www.bizpacreview.com/2020/05/06/msnbc-americans-are-so-freedom-obsessed-they-are-blinded-to-threats-like-virus-or-climate-change-917670
Must give up your freedom.
NJRob (139fb2) — 5/6/2020 @ 4:21 pm