White House To Protesters: Observe Physical Distancing Rules And Wear That Mask
[guest post by Dana]
Throughout the nation, a segment of the population has become increasingly frustrated with ongoing coronavirus stay-at-home orders, and as a result, are holding protests in an increasing number of states. These Americans appear less concerned about a highly contagious virus tearing through the nation, and more focused on what they see as the heavy-handedness of government infringing on their civil liberties. Last week, President Trump egged on supporters to “LIBERATE” Michigan, Virginia and Minnesota – three swing states with Democratic governors – and now a segment of the population is following his lead. Even overwhelmingly Democratic states with Democratic governors are also facing protests in their cities.
As we’ve discussed at length here, this is a matter of competing interests which need to be balanced: public health and re-opening the economy. Findng the sweet spot is something that won’t come easily. As such, we’ve been cautioned repeatedly that opening up the economy will need to happen incrementally, and must include scaled-up testing, as well as keeping social distancing measures in place.
Dr. Fauci warned today that the the effort to dismiss stay-at-home orders could easily backfire on protesters:
Clearly this is something that is hurting from the standpoint of economics and the standpoint of things that have nothing to do with the virus, but unless we get the virus under control, the real recovery economically is not going to happen.
So what you do if you jump the gun and go into a situation where you have a big spike, you’re going to set yourself back,” he said. “So as painful as it is to go by the careful guidelines of gradually phasing into a reopening, it’s going to backfire. That’s the problem.
From viewing photographs and newsclips of protests across the nation, what stands out is a near-complete disregard for social distancing practices, including standing six-feet apart and wearing face masks. Clearly a lot of protesters have dismissed the well-documented vigorous rate of coronavirus contagion, and believe that they are immune to any possible infection. But the problem is, they aren’t just putting themselves at risk. Protesters will return home to their families, and, at some point, interact with community members, thus putting everyone at risk. This doesn’t bode well for an easing back to business as usual. If protesters don’t think they need to maintain an acceptable distance from their neighboring protester and wear a mask at a crowded rally, do you think they will voluntarily adhere to their state’s reentry procedure, which will very likely include wearing masks and continuing with social distancing measures? If you want to protest, fine. But ignoring safety measures – measures that the White House and the CDC have advised – puts others at risk. It’s not a hard concept to grasp.
What’s caused further frustration, and this is somewhat understandable, is the inconsistency in restrictions. This has resulted in a dangerous risk of losing the voluntary compliance of these same people. And voluntary compliance is absolutely necessary to managing the virus, and ensuring a successful re-opening of the states:
[O]verzealous or otherwise foolish lockdown policies are a good way to increase the size of that minority and make its case look reasonable… Mayors in several Southern locales tried to prohibit drive-in church services before an outcry or court order got them to back down. In some cities, police have forcibly ejected people from subways for not using masks…Governor Gretchen Whitmer allowed Home Depot to stay open but forced it to close off parts of its stores…Most people understand that even basically sensible policies can be taken too far. But excess in enforcing social distancing poses special risks that deserve attention from government officials…they make the lockdowns less bearable and raise their costs. The would-be house painter in Michigan, the aspiring churchgoers in the South, the parents who would like to let their kids run around in the sunlight: All have legitimate complaints…they undermine confidence in the intelligence and sensitivity of the officials and the policies. People are putting up with the restrictions out of a sense that they’re unfortunately needed. But you don’t have to be a die-hard libertarian to think that when something is not necessary for governments to do, it is necessary for them not to do it – especially when that something is issuing orders to citizens…Social distancing, like a lot of public-health campaigns, depends on a high degree of voluntary compliance. It therefore requires that the public has confidence that the people leading the efforts are not just looking for excuses to boss people around, that they are mindful of the costs of their policies, that they have given some thought to what they are doing.
Nonetheless, while I appreciate a healthy wariness of government overreach where civil liberties are concerned and inconsistent foolishness from some governors, this does not change the fact that we are facing a highly contagious virus that doesn’t care about principles, political persuasions, personal philosophies, or anything that one might claim takes priority over practicing reasonable safety measures. We are not being compelled to permanently modify our behaviors. We are being asked to temporarily modify our behavior in order to help prevent further transmission of a deadly virus which is highly contagious and has wreaked havoc across the nation in a very short period of time. And it’s the sort of highly contagious virus that requires everyone to hold the line. Six feet apart and a mask when out in public. How is that a big deal? No matter what you think of government, or social distancing orders to help minimize the spread of the disease, let me ask you, why the isn’t your family, or your neighbor worth the extra effort?
It should be obvious that one can both understand the need to get people back to work and and the need to keep the public health risk as low as possible (through prescribed mesaures such as social distancing and wearing a mask). But the danger of not adhering to social distancing measures when re-opening the states will only certainly extend lockdown measures because more people will become infected . This isn’t rocket science. And while she sounded like a condescending scold when she made the point, Gov. Whitmer was right about this.
Just as I was finishing this post, Kellyanne Conway was on Fox News and said that Trump wants protesters to follows social distancing guidelines:
“We want people to adhere to the CDC guidelines. People should read those guidelines. We need physical distancing of at least 6 feet. Wear that face covering, that mask…
When it was pointed out to her that the protesters were clearly breaching those social distancing lines, Conway deflected and pointed out that some of governors had “distanced themselves from common sense,” and referred to the protesters as “the forgotten men and women,” (which will probably be tapped as a 2020 campaign slogan). She also believes that some of these state governors have been “more concerned about…controlling the populations than protecting them. She did come back around and say that “it’s the President’s guidelines that are out there that everyone should be adhereing to.”
LISTEN: @KellyannePolls comments on expectations of reopening the economy amid nationwide protests of state-issued stay-at-home orders #nine2noon pic.twitter.com/TNJx3qJekJ
— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) April 20, 2020
–Dana
Hello.
Dana (0feb77) — 4/20/2020 @ 12:51 pmLast Thursday, Jay Inslee had a good reply for the protesters (estimated at around 1,000) who showed up in Olympia yesterday. The gist is that he respected their 1st Amendment rights or so to speak and to freely assemble but cautioned that they should maintain social distance and wear masks. He then he praised the other 6,999,000 in the state for staying in and sticking with the protocols.
Paul Montagu (0073cc) — 4/20/2020 @ 1:03 pmThe amazing this about the US response to this is how well we did (outside of the NYC area), even with our leadership handicap. It’s been varied at the state level, too, with good and bad execution, both left and right. If you exclude NY, the US numbers per capita will be almost as good as Germany’s, which has intelligent leadership and remarkably law-abiding citizens.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 4/20/2020 @ 1:09 pm*
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 4/20/2020 @ 1:10 pmthisthingStill, we are looking at another month of this, followed by several months of still-annoying restrictions. How long before one can have a wedding, take communion, go to a baseball game or sit on the beach on Maui? Six months? A year?
These protests are just the start.
Kevin M (ab1c11) — 4/20/2020 @ 1:13 pmWashington state’s numbers are looking pretty good, but don’t expect Inslee to open soon. He’ll want to milk this for everything he can.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/20/2020 @ 1:19 pmHow about in-your-car or drive-by protests? I find it hard to see what is dangerous about those.
Have every protestor (including his or her live-in spouse or family, if applicable) drive by the state house.
Someone tried that in NJ, but it was shut down.
Bored Lawyer (56c962) — 4/20/2020 @ 1:35 pmHe was hinting at a June 1st Reopening Day, but the UW modelers have picked May 18th. We’ll see what happens, but the numbers are looking good because he took this virus seriously and he listened to the scientists, because we have the best scientists, beautiful scientists, and they do the very best modeling, their models are perfect.
Paul Montagu (0073cc) — 4/20/2020 @ 1:37 pmDrive-by protests have a side-benefit–using oil, of which we have too much right now.
norcal (a5428a) — 4/20/2020 @ 1:52 pm@ Kevin M,
I agree that these protests are just the start. But it seems to me, that if we have to observe another 3 months or 5 months of this, it will be a drop in the bucket compared to the bigger catastrophe that might occur if we re-open too soon and disregard social distancing measures.
Dana (0feb77) — 4/20/2020 @ 1:53 pm@ Bored Lawyer,
Surprisingly, I received a flyer in my inbox for an “Operation Gridlock” rally. It specifically states “Stay in your vehicle during demonstration. Follow recommended safety guidelines for wearing masks in public.” The problem is, there will always be those that don’t think they should adhere to the directives.
In Michigan, there were protesters in thousands of cars leading to the capitol, and yet:
Case in point:
Dana (0feb77) — 4/20/2020 @ 1:58 pmWhy would we assume a malicious motive, when his actions to date are the model that the federal guidelines follow, albeit 6 weeks later.
Brian Kemp has just announced that gyms, bowling alleys, tattoo parlors, hair and nail salons, and massage parlors, can open up on Friday. But you’re supposed to maintain social distancing, at the massage parlor. Sure, those are definitely the right things to open first. Also, based on the Trump admins guidelines, most of those shouldn’t open for more than 60 days, since GA still hasn’t hit the point where they can start the clock on getting to day 1 of the phase zero 14 day period.
Brian Kemp has been found wanting.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 2:13 pmWasn’t Kemp the one who waited until April 2 or so, to sign a stay-at-home order?
Dana (0feb77) — 4/20/2020 @ 2:26 pmSouth Carolina, Tennessee, also opening up this week or next week. Tennessee is looking for a full reopening May 1st. Following the admin guidelines, Tennessee also should not even be starting the clock yet, South Carolina is at least potentially past the top, so 10 days away from phase 1.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 2:35 pmI for one support what I call a Downstate Cold Open on Tue April 28 which would be for basically IL south of I-70 and northwest of I-72 and a line from east of Freeport to east of Jacksonville. The mid size Central IL towns plus metro Rockford can open May 12 with the 8 county Chicago region for the latter half of Memorial day weekend (Sunday the 24th, just to pander).
urbanleftbehind (082780) — 4/20/2020 @ 2:35 pmOnly one “state” of Tennessee is ready, the easternmost third. Memphis is too much in the New Orleans to Chicago vector, and Nashville is in the big spike currently.
urbanleftbehind (082780) — 4/20/2020 @ 2:39 pmYeah, the day after he found out that you could become infected from asymptomatic carriers, 6 weeks after the CDC (in Atlanta) announced it.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 2:50 pmOf course, getting the Phase 1 gate of extensive testing infrastructure. A thing that doesn’t yet exist in the US.
We’re only a month late and 22M tests short.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 2:53 pmRush Limbaugh says the whole thing is probably unnecessary and doesn’t help:
https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2020/04/20/more-research-suggests-the-lockdown-wasnt-needed
The link:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/18/swedish_epidemiologist_johan_giesecke_why_lockdowns_are_the_wrong_policy.html
So they have a basis on which to lean on.
But this is not right.
When extended to tens of thousands of people, the attempt to break the chain of infection does amount to something.
Has anyone ever seen a flu like this?
And you can’t say it’s all New York City, maybe because of the subway system. Did they have one in Milan? And is the subway busiest in Corona, Queens?
And the nursing homes, cruise ships (approximately 1% overall death rate – and that with uncrowded hospitals) prisons and the USS Theodore Roosevelt?
This guy in Sweden says:
Probably not true.
Sammy Finkelman (3bf6ea) — 4/20/2020 @ 3:12 pm18. More than test kits, they’re missing reagents. Chemicals. And there’s a limited supply of swabs.
Yes. they’re nothing but supersized Q-tips, but they still need to be manufactured. And anyway it gives you a pretty big false negative rate.
Sammy Finkelman (3bf6ea) — 4/20/2020 @ 3:15 pm‘Nonetheless, while I appreciate a healthy wariness of government overreach where civil liberties are concerned and inconsistent foolishness from some governors, this does not change the fact that we are facing a highly contagious virus that doesn’t care about principles, political persuasions, personal philosophies, or anything that one might claim takes priority over practicing reasonable safety measures. We are not being compelled to permanently modify our behaviors. We are being asked to temporarily modify our behavior in order to help prevent further transmission of a deadly virus which is highly contagious and has wreaked havoc across the nation in a very short period of time. And it’s the sort of highly contagious virus that requires everyone to hold the line. Six feet apart and a mask when out in public. How is that a big deal? No matter what you think of government, or social distancing orders to help minimize the spread of the disease, let me ask you, why the isn’t your family, or your neighbor worth the extra effort?’
Shorter: “common sense.”
If only the good citizens Pompeii had the U.S. Constitution in hand to wave at Vesuvius to stop that hot, deadly, pyroclastic flow from frying them– and killing their “way of life.”
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/20/2020 @ 3:17 pmAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez
@AOC
[on the cratering of the crude oil market]
You absolutely love to see it.
This along with record low interest rates means it’s the right time for a worker-led mass investment in green infrastructure to save our planet *cough*
__ _
Scott W
@scottwholley
·
sTOp sAyInG DemS aRe RoOTinG fOR thE pANdEmIC!!
__ _
Stephen L. Miller
@redsteeze
·
You only need thousands of people dead and millions of people unemployed to enact your vision, which is basically what we’ve been saying all along.
__ _
Guy Faux
@Faux_Guy_
·
“Oil is super cheap. Let’s invest in cost prohibitive green energy boondoggles.” – AOC, economics and investment supergenius
__ _
Gene Loblaw
@GeneLoblaw
The cough is the money shot
harkin (2d2635) — 4/20/2020 @ 3:18 pm_
Listening to Trump, and then Pence coming up, the difference is night and day. It’s like a ritalin jacked 10 year old and at least moderately intelligent adult beige man.
Beige man 2020, like 4/20…2020, you know, the weed thing, get it? and the 25th amendment.
I can listen to Pence drone on for hours, it’s like Ambien for the bruised psyche, or just Ambien. I’m not at risk of bricking my TeeVee either.
When Trump’s talking my internal soundtrack starts up with the Swedish death metal supergroup Unleashed’s greatest hits.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 3:28 pm@19. ‘Rush Limbaugh says the whole thing is probably unnecessary and doesn’t help…’
“Doesn’t help”… what the hell does he know– or care: Dr. Rushbo has terminal lung cancer.
“Yeah, I’m dead right on this. The coronavirus is the common cold, folks.”- Rush Limbaugh, ‘The Rush Limbaugh Show’ February 24, 2020
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/20/2020 @ 3:29 pm‘I can listen to Pence drone on for hours…’
Hoosiers did; he’s an ex-radio talk show host who spewed tractor talk across the cornfield airwaves for a decade.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 4/20/2020 @ 3:32 pmGood line. Sounds poetic and will feed his supporters sense of victimization. Plus with the context it should be easy make clear that he’s referring to specific demographic. The will help keep the white nationalists motivated.
Time123 (36651d) — 4/20/2020 @ 3:55 pmGood line. Sounds poetic and will feed his supporters sense of victimization. Plus with the context it should be easy make clear that he’s referring to specific demographic. The will help keep the white nationalists motivated.
Another clarifying comment. Thanks for the honesty, it helps one to understand where you are coming from.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/20/2020 @ 4:00 pmTrump announced yesterday that he was going to use the Defense Production Act to compel an unnamed company to produce swabs, he had Giroir take the podium to explain why the DPA is no longer needed.
Yes, from needing the DPA yesterday, to it’s fine today. Were there 39 million under the cushion over there that Guido (stereotypical I know) can get us for a “good deal”? Is the shortage fake news yesterday that is no corrected to not fake news. It’s been a day, the facts on the ground must have changed, it couldn’t be anything else.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 4:02 pmGiroir claims there’s “excess capacity” for testing and doesn’t know why Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) ordered 500,000 tests from South Korea. When asked if there were enough medical supplies to actually obtain the sample to then run through the “test”, he said he didn’t know, and would have to report back.
You see, the testing is fine, lots of testing; swabs to use to stick up your schnoz? nah, chemicals to separate the samples? nah, preservative to allow you to ship the sample to the lab, nah. But we’ve got all the tests you need, big beautiful tests. The testingest tests in the whole testing world.
Test One Two, Test Test.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 4:08 pm29, and that is why I’m so leery of any plans that come out of Trump’s mouth. And with good reason.
Dana (0feb77) — 4/20/2020 @ 4:34 pmYup, Many trump supporters are motivated by a sense of victim hood. Many others are white nationalists. This is a good line for him because he can use it to appeal to both groups without alienating too many other parts of his coalition.
It’s a good line that way.
Time123 (f5cf77) — 4/20/2020 @ 4:40 pmHe went on for quite a while about first it was the ventilators, now it’s the tests.
My first thought, brick the TeeVee.
My second thought, well, yeah, you categorize and prioritize your list of requirements, and then you define who is responsible for delivering on each item, and when it’s needed, where its coming from, how do you pay for it…
You know, like a plan. This is not the first time anyone has create a plan, or executed a plan. You don’t get credit for believing that you’re both inventing the wheel and fire simultaneously, while your driving down the street in your Buick and the flames are tickling your arse.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 4:40 pmFauci himself has said that we don’t yet have the testing and tracing procedures that are needed to open the country:
Further, fact checking his claims this weekend:
Dana (0feb77) — 4/20/2020 @ 4:46 pmNew York Governor Andrew Cuomo to visit President Donald Trump at the White House tomorrow, where he will talk some sense into him.
He is sure to tell him about the antibody sampling that New York State s conducting, which will hopefully be able to tell us about the true percentage of people infected and how important that is for letting us know when the shutdown can be begun to be undone.
One problem: The news might not be as good as that Swedish guy says. Cuomo has got to make that clear to Trump – plus come up with a plan to deal with that situation that doesn’t throw the United Sates into a a second Great Depression.
There will probably be another sampling a number of weeks later, however the first sampling goes, to see if there is any change.
I would wish Cuomo, or somebody will key Trump (he is the president now, after all) into pushing the development of synthetic anti coronovirus antibodies – the on;y possible guaranteed treatmnt.
Sammy Finkelman (3bf6ea) — 4/20/2020 @ 4:56 pmI think Trump is going to like the idea of solving the question of infectiveness of Covid-19.
Sammy Finkelman (3bf6ea) — 4/20/2020 @ 4:59 pmOh, my sweet summer child…
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:05 pmCuomo has been pretty calm, he’s recognized that NY needs the federal response, desperately. He also recognizes that to get Trump to not dump all over helping you, you have to play the role Trump wants, needs, craves. He’s had a couple if instances of snark, but Trump doesn’t really recognize snark, it requires interpretation, so not likely. I have moderate hope that he can bite his tongue long enough, and complement Trump enough to turn him a little bit…for a couple of days…maybe.
I also think Mike DeWine has done an excellent job, I think he could potentially influence Trump in a positive direction as well. The problem is they’ll leave, and Trump will turn on OANN and start looking at twitter.
Worrying, and disheartening, when your expectations are low, really low, and you are still underwhelmed. I’d cheer for being whelmed, boring competency is my dream, today.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:09 pmhttps://hotair.com/archives/john-s-2/2020/04/20/usc-la-county-antibody-testing-suggests-4-la-county-virus/
Another study
NJRob (12a919) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:14 pmAntibody tests are unfortunately unreliable garbage at the moment, because the FDA allowed anybody to put them on the market without providing evidence that they actually work as claimed.
This was all over the news this morning, and there are links in earlier threads.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:19 pmHere’s a good explanation about how using tests to detect rare diseases is unreliable unless you understand the false positive rate, the false negative rate AND the prevalence of the disease in the population you testing:
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:36 pmJust went through earlier threads. Dont see links to this one, just the Santa Clara study.
Repeated tests in multiple areas showing a much higher infection rate than previously assumed.
NJRob (12a919) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:39 pmThe same Stanford antibody test that gave crazy results in Santa Clara county was used in the LA study.
And the LA researchers have not put out anything but a press release – no paper, no data.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:39 pmSeveral posts at the end of the Weekend Open Thread, starting here.
Sorry.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:41 pmI feel so badly for Mrs. Conway. How embarrassing.
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:56 pmFound this excellent, but somewhat technical (in terms of statistics) peer-review of the Santa Clara study (which used the same test as the LA study Rob cited).
Among other concerns, the study does not properly account for the false positive rate, and its statistical uncertainty.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:58 pmIt’s a wonder to me that Limbaugh still has an audience. He makes any conservative cringe, he’s become such a tongue-bath boi at Cabana del T-rump, having gone 180 degrees from his old positions.
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:59 pm@40. Thanks Dave talking about the issue with false positives. This is basic basic probability, and I’m astounded there isn’t more acknowledgement of this issue when it comes to these new antibody studies. I looked at the Santa Clara study (which had 50 positives out of 3300 samples) and known manufacture self reported false positive rate of 2 out 371.
Yes, we more people than reported are likely to have been infected. Everybody already knows this, but it’s probably nowhere close to rates that some of these studies are reporting by just extrapolating the data to whole population given the false positives. Just using my back of the envelope calculation assuming 17 false positives yields 33 positives out of 3300 samples. That’s a 1% infection rate that yields 19000 cases which is larger than the 1900 cases that’s been reported. But given the small sample a few extra false positives could easily bias the results even further, and we really don’t know what the true false positive rate on these tests are.
The antibody tests are important and more studies need to be done, but a huge grain of salt needs to be taken when trying to extrapolate this kind of sampling to the larger population. These tests need to calibrated quite a bit still. The fact the study is using a test that has only been calibrated on 371 true negatives and then sampling 3300 (non random volunteers) to assess the infection rate of population of 1.9 million raises huge red flags. We should be doing these studies, but we should definitely not making bold policy decisions based on these test (at least not yet).
tla (7ab14a) — 4/20/2020 @ 6:05 pmOK, I know that fake news and lamestream media has hyped this “Wuhan China Virus” up (come on folks, it’s just the flu). All of these protesters are expressing outrage at the overreach of local fascists.
Cut to 102 years ago, when the last time a global pandemic happened. The public health officials wanted to restrict travel, have people stay home, wear masks, etc. Sound familiar? People protested, people ignored the restrictions when they got fed up, local officials relaxed the restrictions, and the thing that any child thought would happen…happened. The same places are having the same arguments today, doing the same things, with the same outcomes that are 100% predictable.
“Those who cannot remember the past are super awesome sauce and that is super beautiful”
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 6:10 pmAnother survey of the antibody testing situation, from Nature:
Antibody tests suggest that coronavirus infections vastly exceed official counts
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 6:15 pmThis is a fascinating thread and cautionary tale about San Franciscans wearing masks during the Spanish flu in 1918. At estimated 80% of the population wore masks. Come November, restrictions were lifed and society was moving back to a semblance of normal sans masks. But by December, a second wave of the flu surged, and madndatory mask-wearing was reinstituted, and guess what happened? People said no way. It was estimated that 90% of the population refused to wear them because once you let that genie out of the bottle, it’s very difficult to put it back in…. Read the whole thread.
Dana (0feb77) — 4/20/2020 @ 6:23 pmI have read that in Arizona, a private lab is offering antibody testing to tell if someone had coronavirus. There are more than 2,000 people on the waiting list.
This is confusing If they know the tests are not effective due to being unreliable, why leave them on the market:
Dana (0feb77) — 4/20/2020 @ 6:30 pm@51
tla (7ab14a) — 4/20/2020 @ 6:41 pmA test that may not be useful to assess the penetration of virus in the population can be perfectly good on an individual basis. Especially if the error is having too many false positives. For example let’s say we have a test that’s 100% accurate in finding if someone who actually has coronavirus (i.e. no false negatives), but 1 our 100 actual negatives reports as a false positive. Using that test someone to find out if they have the coronavirus (especially if they have other symptoms) is pretty good. It doesn’t miss anyone who should be treated, watched or isolated. However that same test would be terrible to assess the penetration in the population if the actual infection rate were something small like .1%. Using that test on 1000 people would yield 11 positive results and if we simply extrapolated that we would think the actual infection rate is 1% instead of .1%.
Off-topic: US source: North Korean leader in grave danger after surgery
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 6:48 pmBreaking-
US source: North Korean leader in grave danger after surgery
The US is monitoring intelligence that North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, is in grave danger after a surgery, according to a US official with direct knowledge.
Kim recently missed the celebration of his grandfather’s birthday on April 15, which raised speculation about his well-being. He had been seen four days before that at a government meeting.
RipMurdock (e81e20) — 4/20/2020 @ 6:52 pmI made the curious journey into the fever swamp at RedState…wow, just wow.
I mean, I’d love to be living on their version of Earth, obviously the internet proxy connection uses a portal to connect their Earth to ours within the multiverse.
Seriously, wow.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 6:56 pmThis can’t be true because President Trump said just the other day that Kim recently sent him “a nice note.”
North Korea denies that Kim sent Trump ‘a nice note’
This must all be FakeNews to make President Trump look bad.
That’s the only possible explanation.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 7:00 pmHey, in suburban Omaha, you will soon be able to go to the mall, like next week. It’s right on I-80 so it’s convenient to all of the mid-continent. I guess the Georgia governor saw this and said “hold my beer”.
Some of the employees are not quite as excited.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 7:10 pmKentucky has largest-ever day-over-day coronavirus infection increase after protests
RipMurdock (e81e20) — 4/20/2020 @ 7:13 pmKentucky saw its highest spike in coronavirus cases after protesters took to the streets last week to call for the state to lift lockdown.
Gov. Andy Beshear (D) announced Sunday that Kentucky had 253 newly identified coronavirus cases and had an additional four new deaths. Beshear said the state will not reopen economic sectors or ease restrictions until there is a downward projection of reported cases for 14 days.
Protests occurred in Frankfort last Wednesday outside the Kentucky capitol. About 100 Kentuckians were protesting against Beshear’s restrictions, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader.
Monday, the state had 102 new confirmed cases of covid-19, bringing the statewide total to at least 3,050, Beshear said at his Monday news briefing. The state also reported six new virus-related deaths, raising the total number of deaths to 154.
……
If the Dear Leader were to join his father and grandfather in “retired god” status, who would be in charge?
According to Dennis Rodman (of all people), Kim reportedly has a ~10 year-old daughter. He might have more children, but none of them would be old enough to take over.
He has a 38-year old brother who is apparently an apolitical bohemian and an Eric Clapton fan.
His sister is quite powerful and acts similar to a chief of staff. She would presumably be equally ruthless.
He assassinated his half-brother a few years ago.
Kim also has a 65 year-old uncle who is said to look so much like his father Kim Il-Sung that he is considered a threat by the regime, and has kept a low profile to avoid any “accidents”.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 7:19 pmI saw that about Kentucky, RipMurdock, and wondered what commenter Dana in Kentucky thought about that. As I recall, he was not pumped about any kind of stay-at-home orders.
Dana (0feb77) — 4/20/2020 @ 7:19 pmFor comparison, the entire state of Kentucky has almost a thousand fewer cases, but 39 more deaths than my county in Florida (Broward) [3960 cases, 115 deaths]. In Miami-Dade the figures are 9166/202.
Kishnevi (480bf9) — 4/20/2020 @ 7:44 pmI live in NorKY, but I’d not put much faith into a single day’s result. We’ve also added a bunch of testing capacity with free testing in a state/Kroger program, so more positives were going to happen this week. The protest in Frankfort was small enough that it wouldn’t have a drastic impact. Ohio, PA, Michigan, have had much larger protests, so in a week or two I bet you’ll see a pop with the 2 week plus of incubation.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 7:45 pmThanks for Kentucky explainer, Col. Klink. I’ll be waiting for a spike here in So. Cal. in a few weeks as well.
Dana (0feb77) — 4/20/2020 @ 7:50 pmIF I did not have people I love on the front lines, I would tell all these neo-Confederate, neo-Nazi, skinhead, militia, Trumpkin jerkoffs to do anything they want and could they please arrange to die in deep water so we won’t have to bury them? While I hunker down and protect myself from them.
But like dopers and drunks, it’s not only themselves that they’ll be hurting. They will also be hurting all the people who have a duty to look after them when they get sick and all the other innocents who cannot avoid contact with them.
PS Trump needs to be indicted for murder in every state.
nk (1d9030) — 4/20/2020 @ 8:18 pmSo Trumps suspending Immigration to the US temporarily.
Well, for sure, because that was definitely the problem. But hey, he’s doing two things at once, so yay, multitasking.
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/20/2020 @ 8:24 pmCapitalism is a Ponzi scheme. One percent of the pyramid gets money for nothing except organizing it, paying politicians to keep it legal, paying so-called economists to write apologia for it, and promoting it to the 99% who will never get a full return from their “investment” of their life, health, youth, sweat and blood.
nk (1d9030) — 4/20/2020 @ 8:31 pmShowing you don’t have any idea what a Ponzi Scheme OR capitalism is.
Not that matters to this thread…
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 4/20/2020 @ 8:50 pmIf you exclude NY, the US numbers per capita will be almost as good as Germany’s, which has intelligent leadership and remarkably law-abiding citizens.
My girls spent a week in Berlin a few years back. They bought weekly passes for the buses and trains. Nobody asked to see them, not even once. Now, there are three possible explanations:
nk (1d9030) — 4/20/2020 @ 9:06 pm1. The Germans are so law-abiding that paying somebody to check bus passes would be a waste of money; or
2. The secret police have everybody under observation at all times down to knowing whether someone got on the train; or
3. The German people believe explanation 2 above is the case, whether it is correct or not, making explanation 1 correct (not at all paradoxically).
whether someone got on the train *without paying*
nk (1d9030) — 4/20/2020 @ 9:07 pmNYC’s virus slam and the conventional wisdom of ‘density is the culprit’ is not as cut and dried as it may seem:
“ A cursory look at a map shows that New York City’s coronavirus cases aren’t correlated with neighborhood density at all. Staten Island, the city’s least crowded borough, has the highest positive test rate of the five boroughs. Manhattan, the city’s densest borough, has its lowest.
Nor are deaths correlated with public transit use. The epidemic began in the city’s northern suburbs. The city’s per capita fatalities are identical to those in neighboring Nassau County, home of Levittown, a typical suburban county with a household income twice that of New York City.
True, New York City apartments are crowded. The share of housing units with more than one occupant per room is almost 10 percent. But that number is 13 percent in the city of Los Angeles. As a metro area, New York isn’t even in the top 15 U.S. cities for overcrowding. It’s not even the American city with the most apartments per capita (Miami) or immigrants (also Miami), to take two other characteristics that critics say might be associated with coronavirus infections.
New York City has a lot of restaurants per capita, places where people gather with strangers every night. But not as many as San Francisco, which, though it ranks second in the U.S. for both residential density and transit use, had just 20 COVID-19 deaths as of Friday.”
Nothing About New York’s Outbreak Was Inevitable
https://slate.com/business/2020/04/coronavirus-new-york-city-outbreak-blame.html
harkin (2d2635) — 4/20/2020 @ 9:35 pmPart of an official notice from Valley County MT:
“Anyone who is from out of town or out of Valley County who has a PINK wristband has been here 14 days or more and no longer needs to do the strict self-quarantine. They may enter your business. Anyone who is from out of town or out of Valley County, staying here/working here, and has not completed the 14 day quarantine is REQUIRED BY THE VALLEY COUNTY HEALTH OFFICER ORDER to use curbside delivery only. They are not to enter your business to shop.“
__
Official notice from Valley County MT a little while later:
“The Valley County Commissioners would like to apologize, and issue clarification, regarding the current health orders and obligations that apply to visitors from outside Valley County…In a break-down of our internal processes, a flier went out to local business owners seemingly indicating such wrist bands are required for out of county individuals and that local business owners were obligated to report violations of the health orders. That is not the intent of Valley County and that flier has been rescinded.”
https://pjmedia.com/trending/montana-county-orders-residents-to-wear-mandatory-pink-wristbands-in-order-to-shop-or-get-reported-to-police/
harkin (2d2635) — 4/20/2020 @ 9:41 pm_
It’s pink, PINK! I wonder when the breast cancer groups start protesting Montana for using pink not realizing what they’re really doing is much worse.
NJRob (4d595c) — 4/20/2020 @ 9:57 pmHas a president ever been prosecuted by a state while in office?
It appears Aaron Burr was indicted by New Jersey (and according to Wikipedia, NY) for the murder of Alexander Hamilton while Burr was still the VP:
But he was never brought to trial for the murder. (His famous trial was for treason, and that after leaving office.)
It seems to me he could be arrested and charged with sedition in the states where he incited his cultists to riot and mayhem.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 10:51 pmIt don’t recall anything in the constitution giving the president immunity from state laws.
In other cases where immunity was granted (to members of congress), it is very explicitly spelled out. Lacking any such delegation of power to the federal government, or denial of same to the states, the 10th Amendment would reserve to the states the power to try the president for violation of their laws.
A state could obviously not remove the president from office, but it seems like they have the authority to incarcerate or execute him, like any other convict.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 11:01 pmRussian collusion failed (though the collusion was exactly the reverse of what was alleged)
Impeachment failed (Ukraine was the reverse as well)
Let’s try state laws for treason on what claim… who knows… but try it anyway.
NJRob (4d595c) — 4/20/2020 @ 11:08 pm@68 The average German is definitely a rule follower. Very Much Definitely.
Nic (896fdf) — 4/20/2020 @ 11:12 pmSometimes saving America isn’t easy, Rob.
But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try.
Patrick called this out on Twitter, but I’m not sure anyone here linked it:
This is what a death cult looks like.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 11:26 pm39. Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 5:19 pm
The federal government is doing it’s own independent testing now which is what it should have done all along. (while letting them be sold)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html
And some organization is attempting a complete survey, which should be good except for tests from China, where they can change anything, quietly, unless the government decides to strictly forbid it (instead of the more usual encouraging it to increase exports)
Now that’s the thing to do. Rather than delay, or demand the companies tell you.
The problem is mainly with the rapid result tests.
And they can test for different things. Some for Immunoglobulin M (IgM) which appears at the start of an antibody response and is not very targeted; some for IgG, which is specific to the disease and takes awhile to ramp up; and some even for Immunoglobulin A (IgA) which s found in the mucus in respiratory infections.
And some are being marketed to doctors (who should know better, but not all doctors are so good) as coronavirus diagnosis tests, when antibodies don’t show up for a few days. The FDA didn’t expect that. And they also left the law in a little bit of a state of confusion.
But the tests are not, per se, garbage.
Sammy Finkelman (3bf6ea) — 4/20/2020 @ 11:45 pm56. Dave (1bb933) — 4/20/2020 @ 7:00 pm Trump wouldn’t invent a letter (I don’t think) so it must be signs of nobody in charge or a retraction.
The story (leaked by the North Korean government?) says Kim Jong Un had heart surgery April 12 (it would never say coronavirus since it is not supposed to exist in North Korea.)
Heart failure is one result of an infection by this virus. We are supposed to believe this was caused by obesity and smoking and overwork and repeated visits to Mount Paektu, (!) where he (and his wife) was photographed riding a large white horse through snowy fields and woods.
He diappered from view by April 15 when he failed to show up at an event to mark the anniversary of the birth of his grandfather Kim Il-sung. He was at a Politbuto meeting April 11.
He is almost certainly still alive, whatever condition he may be in, because you don’t hear of any situation where the death of someone in charge is hidden for more than a day or two. Not Stalin, not Howard Hughes. Mullah Omar in Afghanistan was not truly in charge – Pakistan’s rouge military intelligence agency was (and is) running the Taliban (and its rivals) In fact, the successful hiding of his death for two years constitutes proof of the assertion he was not in charge.
Sammy Finkelman (3bf6ea) — 4/21/2020 @ 12:31 amIs that the one in Cabaret?
Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 4/21/2020 @ 12:34 am48. With the 1918-1919 flu pandemic (although it took a little bit longer to disappear and become extinct) there were second waves, and some people, like “Colonel” House appear to have gotten it twice or three times.
Woodrow Wilson got it in Paris in 1919, and he may never have been the same again.
Sammy Finkelman (3bf6ea) — 4/21/2020 @ 12:35 am80. The ISI, or Inter-Services Intelligence Agency. It’s the ultimate boss in Pakistan, not its official government, which they can veto and sometimes pick the Prime Minister, and they like staying unofficial.
It’s absolutely world class as an intelligence agency, complete with a lot of lies.
Sammy Finkelman (3bf6ea) — 4/21/2020 @ 12:41 amDAve @73
Aaron Burr was a question to a Jeopardy answer. (years ago)
Being indicted for murder by New Jersey.
Sammy Finkelman (3bf6ea) — 4/21/2020 @ 12:43 am51.
I disagree.
And it could only begin to be a problem of you didn’t know they were inaccurate, or more precisely, their limitations and degree of inaccuracy.
Here is how an inaccurate test is being used in Chicago:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html
Not sure if that test was of IgM, which would at least show uop relatively early.
The really bad ones promise 80% accuracy (20% false positive?) and deliver 30%
They’ll find out soon enough how good each test is. Mark Zuckerberg (the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) is working to assess all available tests, according to the New York Times.
Now the question is how much you could trust them, and are they checking tests that will never be sold again, but they’re not the only ones checking out tests.
This free for all is the way to get to a good test sooner.
Sammy Finkelman (3bf6ea) — 4/21/2020 @ 1:03 amTry and set foot on my property and you will be dealing with a deplorable, non essential mother flucker with a chip on his shoulder.
mg (8cbc69) — 4/21/2020 @ 2:33 amBring it swine.
If Kim Jong un is braindead, when did he become a never trumper?
mg (8cbc69) — 4/21/2020 @ 2:39 amSammy.
Sammy Sammy Sammy.
He has been caught lying about letters, not from a head of state, at least as far as I recall, but from the Boy Scouts(!) in the past.
He will lie about ANYTHING without a second thought if he decides it suits him.
He lies about things that are far easier to check, like whether he said a particular thing, or how many electoral votes he won the election by. He had fake Time magazine covers printed and framed on the walls of his clubs to glorify himself. He claims there was a bloody Civil War battle fought on one of his golf courses, when every historian says there wasn’t.
I could go on, but you should get the point.
He lies. about. everything.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/21/2020 @ 2:40 amDisappointing. He should set a better example:
Tom Brady was cited for working out in a closed Tampa park, mayor says
Dave (1bb933) — 4/21/2020 @ 2:47 amPowerful article:
It’s written from an unapologetically leftist perspective, and there’s plenty to disagree with, but I’m afraid there’s a lot of truth, too.
Dave (1bb933) — 4/21/2020 @ 3:54 amIt will be okay, soon. The Coronavirus sent Pesident Trump a beautiful letter and they’re close to a deal, Kellyanne said on Fox.
nk (1d9030) — 4/21/2020 @ 5:03 amSF: Trump wouldn’t invent a letter (I don’t think)
Dave (1bb933) — 4/21/2020 @ 2:40 am
I remembered something about this.
And now I checked.
He claimed he got a telephone call
The Boy Scouts had issued an open letter (to the parents of its members) apologizing for a speech Trump gave at their Jamboree in 2017, which was like one at one his political rallies. So Trump claimed he’d been called by the head of the Boy Scouts and told it was a great speech. The Boy Scouts denied there even was a call. Then the White House half backtracked,
https://apnews.com/aedbaf4543ea464dbcef78491ba281b9/Boy-Scouts:-Top-leaders-didn't-call-Trump-to-praise-speech
Does that even make any sense? Could it be thaat right after the speech someone thanked him?
Things depend on whether his target audience is likely to check. If caught he modifies his story.
Anyway, I think North Korea is more likely yo have lied here. Trump didn’t even have much of a reason for making this up.
Sammy Finkelman (0cf810) — 4/21/2020 @ 6:10 amAbout Georgia, is it just possible Kemp isn’t really worried about either people’s health or the economy but instead about keeping tax rates low?:
If there’s no state order calling for businesses to be closed, the people who are unemployed can no longer claim that their unemployment is involuntary, even if it would be utter idiocy for them to return to work. A hairdresser or a massage therapist cannot maintain social distance. But they can certainly file for relief … unless the law says they can work.
“Gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios, barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians, their respective schools & massage therapists.”
Not banks. Not software firms. Not factories. Not schools.
It is no coincidence that the businesses on this list are staffed by relatively poor people. Because that’s who he wants off the unemployment rolls. And if they die … well, they’re mostly black people, or Asian, and poor, and an acceptable political loss for a Republican governor…
Victor (4355e3) — 4/21/2020 @ 7:05 am“ Try and set foot on my property and you will be dealing with a deplorable, non essential mother flucker with a chip on his shoulder.”
_
They don’t need to ‘set foot’ on your property:
“ Matt Walsh
@MattWalshBlog
Insane. Police are using drones to enforce social distancing by spying on Americans in their backyards. Police chief says invasion of privacy is worth it “if it saves one life.” At a certain point even the most obsequious bootlickers will have had enough”
https://twitter.com/MattWalshBlog/status/1252215770504978438?s=20
__ _
I’m not too sure about that. Some of the bootlickers appear to be begging for even more from Command And Control.
harkin (c72ccb) — 4/21/2020 @ 7:10 am__
I generally agree with what you said, Victor. One thing made me smile, though.
I used to use a very good, bright second-generation Vietnamese optometrist. She once told me she regretted going to optometry school because her cousins who did nails made a lot more money!
But I take your larger point. What Kemp is doing makes zero sense to me.
Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 4/21/2020 @ 7:14 amVictor, that would be true if the person works for themself. But anyone who doesn’t (or works at premises provided by someone else) would still be dependent on the decisions of that other person about re-opening.
And why bowling alleys?
Kishnevi (836963) — 4/21/2020 @ 7:25 amGryph to White House: GFY. KTHXBYE
Gryph (08c844) — 4/21/2020 @ 7:27 amI think you’re right, Victor. Kemp is hitting the little people, not the corporations and unions. Because like all Republicans these days (present company excepted) he is a coward, a bully, and a lickspittle.
nk (1d9030) — 4/21/2020 @ 7:28 amJohn Roberts
@johnrobertsFox
New @USC and @lapublichealth
study suggests a coronavirus case fatality rate of .1 to .3
__ _
LA Public Health
harkin (c72ccb) — 4/21/2020 @ 8:21 am@lapublichealth
·
USC-LA County Study: Early Results of Antibody Testing Suggest Number of #COVID-19 Infections Far Exceeds Number of Confirmed Cases in Los Angeles County. Visit http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/… for more
_
Sniveling, thieving scum… https://www.dailywire.com/news/infuriating-nikki-haley-unloads-on-illinois-dems-for-trying-to-get-coronavirus-money-for-its-pension-crisis
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 4/21/2020 @ 8:29 amHow much did she get for Boeing?
nk (1d9030) — 4/21/2020 @ 8:32 amFrom viewing photographs and news clips of protests across the nation, what stands out is a near-complete disregard for social distancing practices, including standing six-feet apart and wearing face masks.
Isn’t that the point?
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 4/21/2020 @ 9:13 amThanks for the kind words above Nk and rags. I should note that most of what I wrote was copied from an account on another website.
Victor (4355e3) — 4/21/2020 @ 9:19 amhttps://www.balloon-juice.com/2020/04/21/repub-venality-open-thread-brian-coronavirus-kemp-burning-through-georgia/
These results are pretty consistent with other polling over the past week, see here and here. No wonder Trump is in diversionary attack mode.
RipMurdock (d2a2a8) — 4/21/2020 @ 9:30 amMark Hemingway
@Heminator
·
Glad to see the spirit of New Yorkers remain indomitable. “De Blasio’s social distancing tip line flooded with pen*s photos, Hitler memes”
https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/de-blasios-social-distancing-tip-line-flooded-with-obscenities/amp/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons&__twitter_impression=true
harkin (c72ccb) — 4/21/2020 @ 11:34 am_
It seems to me that the virus has a tendency to remain dormant.
During which the immune system mostly or entirely ignores it.
Sammy Finkelman (83cfe1) — 4/22/2020 @ 4:36 amSARS is 87% identical to SARS2, (COVID-19 was named the name of the disease by the World Health Organization – (it would have been better have simply been called SARS2, but evidently China didn;t want that. SARS2 is actually the main part of the name of the virus itself because it got named before the government of China realized it or something or maybe they even wanted it, so it could look like an already familiar disease.)
MERS is somewhat similar as well, but more deadly.
SARS was wiped out, but MERS has not been possible to wipe out. It comes close to that, perhaps because it is so virulent, thus making contact tracing easier, but it has not been possible to utterly wipe t out from the face of the earth, unlike SARS, which I understand is gone, outside of laboratories, even if they are not yet ready to admit it.
My thought is, if SARS2 has something in it that causes it to remain dormant in the body for an extended period of time, we should look for some genetic material that is not present in SARS, but is present in both SARS2 and MERS, maybe somewhat different in MERS and SARS2 but where they still can be linked together as distinct from SARS.
Maybe that could give a clue as to the reason for the dormancy.
Maybe also MERS is easier to trace if it is dormant for less time.
Sammy Finkelman (83cfe1) — 4/22/2020 @ 7:41 am