Patterico's Pontifications

3/21/2020

Recession? Or Depression?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 9:55 am



It may be time to recognize that we are likely not headed for a mere recession. The utter implosion of the world economy and the deaths that will follow are likely to put us in a depression. GDP will obviously plummet. You could easily see unemployment exceeding 20%. This is going to last a while.

We’re gonna have to pull together because this is going to be ugly.

447 Responses to “Recession? Or Depression?”

  1. I doubt the deaths of mainly old and sick people will cause an economic depression. The tissue-damaging morbidity (injury to) younger, healthier people will contribute more.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  2. We’re gonna have to pull together because this is going to be ugly.

    We’re all more housebound than we used to be. Let’s pull up episodes of The Waltons; that’ll put us in the right spirit.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  3. In economics, a depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe economic downturn than a recession, which is a slowdown in economic activity over the course of a normal business cycle.

    That’s a pretty fair definition of a depression. The US has experienced them periodically over our history. It is notable that the GREAT Depression happened only when the central government was provide tools that allowed the entire economy to be dicked with.

    I don’t see how we avoid a depression. I hope the “brights” in dc will not make it “great” again.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  4. 3. We avoid a depression by minimizing government interference. Since a good number of people seem to be okay with government forcing businesses to shut down in an act of blind panic, I don’t see how we avoid it either.

    Gryph (08c844)

  5. I am already depressed.

    nk (1d9030)

  6. The coronavirus is creating both a supply and a demand shock to the economy. The supply shock stems from disrupted supply chains and businesses closing down for safety reasons or due to government mandates. The demand shock stems from individuals cutting back on spending as their income declines and their fears rise. At the same time, businesses are deferring investments as revenues fall. So aggregate demand and supply are both shifting downward and reducing gross domestic product.

    Policymakers are proposing to stimulate demand to re-inflate GDP. President Trump had proposed zeroing out the federal payroll tax, but now is leaning toward a $1,000 per-person stimulus check. This could start a bidding war for hand-outs because the “money for everyone” approach has bipartisan appeal.

    However, a demand-side stimulus would accomplish little except moving the government closer to a debt crisis. It would have a hard time boosting GDP because the supply side of the economy is damaged by supply-chain bottlenecks and safety fears. A stimulus would give consumers more cash, but the economy will shrink nonetheless if restaurants, travel, and other goods and services are closed. Rather than raising output, much stimulus money would end up as personal savings or bid up prices for the products still available in a smaller economy.“

    Boost supply, not demand, during the pandemic

    https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-budget/488373-boost-supply-not-demand-during-the-pandemic
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  7. 6. In order to boost supply, we have to get people out of their houses and working. Which is exactly the opposite of what the government recommendations are doing.

    Gryph (08c844)

  8. if there is demand with money behind it, there will be supply

    even when there is no demand, as long as there is money the merchants will create demand

    like iphones, starbucks, and pet rocks

    nk (1d9030)

  9. 8. Supply goes down the s***tter if people aren’t working. People won’t be working if they aren’t allowed to leave their homes to work. This, ladies and gentlemen, is how government exacerbates economic downturns.

    Gryph (08c844)

  10. “It is notable that the GREAT Depression happened only when the central government was provide tools that allowed the entire economy to be dicked with.”

    That is not at all what happened in the Great Depression. Hoover was generally a non-economic-interventionist. FDR wasn’t even president until 1933 and we’d been in the Great Depression for 3.5 yrs at that point and it wasn’t getting better.

    Nic (896fdf)

  11. Since a good number of people seem to be okay with government forcing businesses to shut down in an act of blind panic

    I’ve stayed out of your arguing with others on the various threads, partly because I think yuou have some points, and partly because you are obdurate and I don’t like to waste time.

    But noooooooooOOOOOOOOooooobody is forcing businesses to close out of “blind panic”. That kind of gross, silly exaggeration destroys any creds you have. Governsmentsssssss MAY be mistaken, but they are neither blind or in panic.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  12. Gryph, it’s a vicious cycle.

    I work in retail, in an area heavily larded with tourism. Customers started disappearing a couple of weeks ago, when they realized there would be a downturn in the travel industry. The stores were empty long before anyone in the government told them to close (and around here, for most businesses there is no order. They are closed for lack of customers, or because they are located in malls that the mallowner has decided to close.

    Until those customers feel they will have steady work, they won’t be shopping.

    Kishnevi (0db329)

  13. That is not at all what happened in the Great Depression. Hoover was generally a non-economic-interventionist. FDR wasn’t even president until 1933 and we’d been in the Great Depression for 3.5 yrs at that point and it wasn’t getting better.

    Read a book, junior. Presidents were not the only actors in the central government with great power.

    Hoover, BTW, was a Progressive Republican, which was a common breed in the day.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  14. 12. That’s why I said it’s how government exacerbates economic downturn. It’s not a root cause, but it will sure make things worse.

    Gryph (08c844)

  15. Since a good number of people seem to be okay with government forcing businesses to shut down in an act of blind panic, I don’t see how we avoid it either.

    “Blind panic”??

    Dana (4fb37f)

  16. I suspect some people subscribe to the idea that the word “pandemic” is derived from “panic the demos`

    Kishnevi (0db329)

  17. …we’d been in the Great Depression for 3.5 yrs at that point and it wasn’t getting better.

    That’s maybe half true. The stock market had recovered only months after the crash. So, why was this the “Great Depression” when it started out as just another garden variety burp in the business cycle? And why hadn’t there been a previous GREAT? What existed then that had not existed before?

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  18. 15. Blind panic. Social distancing will not save a single life. The only thing that will save lives in the long term is immunity, and there are two ways to achieve immunity: infection or vaccination. Until either of those things happen in sufficiently large numbers, the CoViD-19 outbreak will not burn itself out and we can not stop it otherwise. We can only slow it down and prolong the pain.

    Gryph (08c844)

  19. 11. Nobody? You sure about that? Might want to talk to Gavin Newsome and Andrew Cuomo about that. I don’t think Times Square and Park Avenue would be empty without some degree of fear of government reprisal.

    Gryph (08c844)

  20. Blind panic. Social distancing will not save a single life. The only thing that will save lives in the long term is immunity, and there are two ways to achieve immunity: infection or vaccination. Until either of those things happen in sufficiently large numbers, the CoViD-19 outbreak will not burn itself out and we can not stop it otherwise. We can only slow it down and prolong the pain.

    Gryph, you are, quite literally, life threatening. Your ignorance, and your spreading of the ignorance is as much an epidemic as the virus. That you personally want to risk others lives for your convenience is deplorable, that you are spreading your ignorance is dangerous.

    You are an example of the worst of humanity; foolish, selfish, willfully stupid, and worst of all, confident.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  21. In engineering, there is what is called a “point load”. This to a non-engineer is a wonderfully useful term! If you have a beam that is immensely strong over its span, you can still cause it to fail by imposing too great a point load.

    All other considerations aside, social distancing has the virtue of reducing the point load on our medical infrastructure. And, OF COURSE, that would have the effect of saving lives.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  22. Again, social distancing is not a cure. It is designed to help keep our healthcare system working:

    While it may be disappointing to hear that so many sports events, cruises, festivals and other gatherings are being cancelled, there is a public health reason for these measures. These cancellations help stop or slow down the spread of disease allowing the health care system to more readily care for patients over time.

    The link also discusses the meaning and reasoning behind self-quarantines, isolation, and a simple image that explains the importance of flattening the curve.

    DRJ (15874d)

  23. 22. Viral diseases can’t be cured, and treatment is of limited utility. We’re not talking about the bubonic plague here (which is bacterial). If concern is for not spreading the disease to the high-risk, then it is the high-risk population that should be practicing the social distancing. Our government is calling for economic suicide.

    Gryph (08c844)

  24. 20. Well, if you really believe that the truth is life-threatening, so be it. I can’t help you.

    Gryph (08c844)

  25. @13 and @17 Presidents direct the executive branch offices and sign the legislative bills, buddy. Hoover wasn’t doing significant interventionist things.

    It is entirely true that we’d been in a depression for 3.5 years before FDR was elected. And the stock market didn’t even begin to recover a few months later. It was at a high of 450 before the crash and declined steadily with an occasional small rally throughout Hoover’s mostly non-interventionist presidency until January of 1933 when it bottomed out at 50 points. There were also a bunch of environmental factors that occurred just before and during that caused problems in the Ag industry AND a bunch of banks failed just before and during as well. Added to that all the idiots who’d been buying on margin and were now up to their eyeballs in debt and a world wide downturn. It wasn’t government intervention that cause the problem.

    Nic (896fdf)

  26. And why hadn’t there been a previous GREAT? What existed then that had not existed before?

    There were actually a few severe depressions in the 19th century. What was different was that by the 1920s we had changef into a society that was much more industrialized, much more urbanized, and with much better communications and financial sector. And of course more people.

    Kishnevi (0db329)

  27. It is a hard decision. Perhaps we value life more.

    DRJ (15874d)

  28. 26. By 1913, we also had a central bank operating under Congressional charter that could **** with the money supply. That factor can not be ignored in discussing any 20th century financial downturn, really.

    Gryph (08c844)

  29. 27. Or perhaps this is exactly what I’m talking about when I say “blind panic.” Quite frankly, I find the implication that I value life less than you do to be rank and insulting. GFY.

    Gryph (08c844)

  30. There is a chance that this virus will mutate in a way that is good, that it will actually not become a seasonal flu sort of virus, and that we will generally have immunity as the virus dies out.
    There is a chance that the immunity people get from this will last, and the crazy way this virus incubates and spreads so far will also mean immunity spreads.

    And Americans are developing treatments and vaccines, and I imagine they have access to whatever they want. If there’s one thing I believe from Trump it’s that he damn sure wants this thing cured on his watch.

    No doubt our economy has been damaged very badly and it will get worse, but if my family is OK and I can keep the roof over our heads I’m over caring about how new my car is or how nice my retirement fund is. The economy has been unreliable for all of my life in America. We can’t build our futures on it. In 10-15 years folks will again be frustrated with it.

    Remember why the Trump family got into politics in the first place. They sought the economic advantage of being well connected to authority and worked their way all the way, as a family, to foreign lobbyists needing to stay at their hotels. Every favorite family business I enjoy that’s going out of business, and a lot of homes that are foreclosed will be purchased by the well connected to rent back to the rest of us. These cycles of economic depression/recession are opportunities to those who have cash on hand and early warning to cash out of their investments. I’m not saying tolerate this… but I’m also not under any illusions that investments, pension plans, even real estate, is something everybody has a fair shot to advance with.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  31. There are many diseases we can’t cure, Gryph, but that doesn’t mean the answer is ignoring them.

    Further, it shouldn’t mean that we allow disease to cripple health care for everyone if we can help it. People, incliuding people not at risk of coronavirus, will need hospitals in the next months. If we do nothing, hospitals will be overwhelmed and dangerous. There won’t be safe sercvices or maybe any services for car crash victims, cancer patients, broken bones, etc., if hospitals are swamped by coronavirus patients.

    DRJ (15874d)

  32. I was not saying I value life more or that you don’t, only that the world now can do more about saving lives than it could in the past. That was “we” referring to everyone.

    DRJ (15874d)

  33. (Left my comment at the wrong thread).

    Gryph,

    I certainly understand the fears about losing one’s job. That is the second to the last thing I would want to have happen to anyone at this time. While I don’t know which state you’re in, I know that in California, there are exceptions to the governor’s stay-at-home order

    “…except as needed to maintain continuity of operations of the federal critical infrastructure sectors…The federal government has identified 16 critical infrastructure sectors whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, economic security, public health or safety, or any combination thereof. I order that Californians working in these 16 critical infrastructure sectors may continue their work because of the importance of these sectors to Californians’ health and well-being.”

    Perhaps you fall under that exception. Regardless, I hope you stay healthy. I hope the people around you stay healthy. But I don’t think it’s accurate to refer to this as a “blind panic”. There is plenty of evidence that disproves your descriptor.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  34. “Viral diseases can’t be cured.”

    – Gryph

    They can’t be spread, either, if carriers don’t come into contact with new hosts. Concern is for not spreading the virus to anyone, not just the “high-risk” (however you define that). Hence social distancing for everyone.

    Leviticus (28a6ca)

  35. 34. Spread depends on R0. Viral contagion will continue to spread unless and until R0 is reduced to <1. And as I've said ad nauseum, there are only two ways to do that: infection or vaccination. Assuming you can get a sufficiently large percentage of people to bug-in and live like hermits to stop the viral contagion, it will start spreading just as soon as those people go back out and have contact with each other again.

    Gryph (08c844)

  36. Please, Gryph. You aren’t the only person whose livelihood is at risk. I live in West Texas where our economy is completely dependent on oil. We are dealing with coronavirus plus oil under $20. Our jobs are gone, and not just for weeks or months, but years. I know how you feel.

    DRJ (15874d)

  37. 33. I work at a sandwich shop in South Dakota. If I’m not closed down by government fiat, we could very well be closed down because of lack of business. The degree to which some people are totally comfortable with the concept and idea of economic suicide baffles me. SMDH

    Gryph (08c844)

  38. Or perhaps this is exactly what I’m talking about when I say “blind panic.” Quite frankly, I find the implication that I value life less than you do to be rank and insulting. GFY.

    You should feel insulted, you are insulted, your stupidity and your public display of your lack of character is astonishing.

    Dean Wormer said it best, Fat Drunk and Stupid Is No Way To Go Through Life Son.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  39. 36. Livelihood at risk due to economic ups-and-downs is one thing. That’s not what I’m talking about here, and you know it. To whatever degree life in the petroleum industry has been difficult as you watch Saudi Arabia and Russia engage in a pissing match, you have my sympathy. To whatever degree you are willing to let bureaucrats half-a-continent away on the east coast screw you? That’s where you lose me.

    Gryph (08c844)

  40. Island A has 100 people. Today, one of them has coronavirus. However, the people of Island A live five miles from one another and never come into contact with one another. How many people on Island A have coronavirus two weeks from today? A month from today?

    Island B has 100 people. Today, one of them has coronavirus. However, the people of Island B all congregate at a restaurant in the center of the Island every evening, to have a beer and discuss their days and socialize. How many people on Island B have coronavirus two weeks from today? A month from today?

    Leviticus (28a6ca)

  41. 33. I work at a sandwich shop in South Dakota. If I’m not closed down by government fiat, we could very well be closed down because of lack of business. The degree to which some people are totally comfortable with the concept and idea of economic suicide baffles me. SMDH

    Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 11:58 am

    I’m sorry that your ability to make a living is affected. A lot of us are dealing with that too. I respectfully suggest the government’s actions might change when some businesses are affected, but they were going to be totally screwed either way. Our government isn’t nearly as powerful as it purports to be. We don’t have that many cops to actually change society that much. Government can steer us somewhat clumsily, but if there was no good reason to socially distance and most people didn’t buy in, there would be no chance these changes held. People either buy in or they don’t, based on their reasoning and the media.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  42. Someone’s been hitting the bong again…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  43. Recession? Likely. Depression? Supply-siders are certainly there already.

    Deregulate then; bailout now:

    Reaganomics.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  44. 40. That depends on how long it takes for enough of them to become immune, Levi. Viral contagion burns itself out. I don’t know how long it will take in this instance, but I find it very suspicious that flu numbers spiked back in October and November of last year even though there was no unexpected statistical increase in the number of individuals that actually tested positive for seasonal flu a/b. Is it possible that maybe we were dealing with CoViD-19 back then and just didn’t know it?

    Gryph (08c844)

  45. 41. Well I’m not. I might be stupid, and I could be ahead of the curve in my mistrust for all I know. Life has been a constant financial struggle for me for the past two years and I’m getting kicked in the nuts just as I thought I was starting to see a light at the end of the tunnel. Biased? You bet your sweet ass I am.

    Gryph (08c844)

  46. I find it very suspicious that flu numbers spiked back in October and November of last year even though there was no unexpected statistical increase in the number of individuals that actually tested positive for seasonal flu a/b. Is it possible that maybe we were dealing with CoViD-19 back then and just didn’t know it?

    Very.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  47. 46. In which case however much (little?) you trust the Federal Government’s recommendations in dealing with this thing, they would have been months behind the curve at the point Trump was first made aware of it.

    Gryph (08c844)

  48. But it is spreading everywhere, Gryph, and we can’t understand or predict it. It may cripple our healthcare system and that hurts everyone. Most people are fine with giving up short-term freedoms until we can figure this out.

    You may be right that we will lose freedoms for the long-term as a result, although I hope not. My father felt the same way about FDR, gun regulations, and even his first driver’s license and seatbelt requirements, and he was right. It is nice to see Americans like you stand up and say No, even though I disagree in this case.

    DRJ (15874d)

  49. 48. Thank you DRJ. Even though you disagree in this case, it’s nice to have someone acknowledge that at least I’m not completely nuts.

    If I am right, and all of those unexplained flu symptoms were because of CoViD-19 cases written off by the healthcare industry as idiopathic, I can only hope it would get people to re-examine their personal relationship with their doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we’ll probably never know. No credentialed professional likes to admit when they’re wrong. Not doctors, and certainly not government bureaucrats.

    Gryph (08c844)

  50. To whatever degree you are willing to let bureaucrats half-a-continent away on the east coast screw you? That’s where you lose me.

    Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 12:01 pm

    Unfortunately, even out here in West Texas, I am stuck with an East Coast leader and no matter who wins in November I will have the same for the next 4 years.

    DRJ (15874d)

  51. 50. Oh boy…right? I used to feel pretty proud of living in South Dakota. Then I realized that bad ideas from both coasts permeate here like a virus. 😉

    Gryph (08c844)

  52. I find no support for a DJ close at 450. The highest the DJ closed was 381.17.

    After a one-day recovery on October 30, when the Dow regained 28.40 points, or 12.34%, to close at 258.47, the market continued to fall, arriving at an interim bottom on November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. The market then recovered for several months, starting on November 14, with the Dow gaining 18.59 points to close at 217.28, and reaching a secondary closing peak (bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930. The Dow then embarked on another, much longer, steady slide from April 1930 to July 8, 1932, when it closed at 41.22, its lowest level of the 20th century, concluding an 89.2% loss for the index in less than three years.

    Let me point you to the work of Milton Friedman for answers to the questions I posed, and you made no attempt to answer.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  53. Of course you aren’t nuts, and we all have a stake and voice in this.

    DRJ (15874d)

  54. 53. Please accept my humble and heartfelt apologies for my saltiness earlier. God bless you, and I do sincerely hope that you and yours stay healthy, happy, and most importantly, sane during these trying times.

    Gryph (08c844)

  55. I don’t have a clue about what kind of flu/virus was going around in October-November 2019, but the flu viruses spike then because October is the start of flu season.

    DRJ (15874d)

  56. Same here, Gryph, and no problem. We’re good.

    DRJ (15874d)

  57. Is it possible that maybe we were dealing with CoViD-19 back then and just didn’t know it?

    Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 12:06 pm

    No, it’s not, because it’s a disease that incubates for 2 weeks while spreading rapidly. We are seeing first hand the exponential spread now that it’s here, and it simply was not here in November.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  58. I don’t have a clue about what kind of flu/virus was going around in October-November 2019, but the flu viruses spike then because October is the start of flu season.

    There’s also a spike in snow in the US too. Conspiracy!!!

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  59. 55. Back in October, a couple of weeks after what is normally considered the beginning of “flu season,” there was an uptick in people getting tested for flu-like symptoms who then tested negative for influenza. It is quite possible that might have been when we started seeing CoViD-19 and just didn’t know it yet. I’m not saying that definitively by any stretch, but insofar as that’s a possibility, it would be a major game-changer from an epidemiological standpoint.

    Gryph (08c844)

  60. 57. Let me remind you then, not everyone who has influenza gets tested for it. And I don’t think we’ve ever vaccinated for flu in sufficient numbers to burn it out early with immunity anyway. I’m simply saying it’s a possibility which could turn some assumptions about CoViD-19 on their head, particularly since most viral infections come in multiple waves (as does influenza).

    Gryph (08c844)

  61. Ok, I missed that you were talking about cases where the flu had been ruled out. My guess is more respiratory illnesses because the jet stream went crazy then, but we don’t really kniw.

    DRJ (15874d)

  62. Let me point you to the work of Milton Friedman for answers…

    Don’t.

    Deregulation then; bailouts now; Reaganomics:

    ‘Ronald Reagan rarely catches any blame these days for the present economic mess that is destabilizing markets in the United States and around the world. In fact, Americans often praise the former president for taking the country in bold new directions during his years in the White House. Politicians contribute to this love-fest by naming schools and roads after the iconic president. These admirers rarely acknowledge how central Reagan’s ideas are to the market difficulties troubling us today. As the country’s greatest modern champion of deregulation, perhaps Ronald Reagan contributed more to today’s unstable business climate than any other American. His long-standing campaign against the role of government in American life, a crusade he often stretched to extremes, produced conditions that ultimately proved bad for business… Economist Milton Friedman served as [Reaganomics] principal philosopher and Newt Gingrich was a leading advocate in Congress.’

    -source, https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/53527

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  63. 61. We don’t know, we didn’t know, and we’ll probably never know for sure. I’m just not so certain that many of the “expert” assumptions about CoViD-19 are true, either.

    Gryph (08c844)

  64. DCSCA (797bc0)

    Get your ass-pirations on a plane for Jolly Old or the French wonderfulness, old dahling. They have places where your kind of stupid is tolerated…even appreciated. The U.S. is not one. We were founded to be “not Europe”. We will stay that way, with any luck.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  65. We don’t know, we didn’t know, and we’ll probably never know for sure. I’m just not so certain that many of the “expert” assumptions about CoViD-19 are true, either.

    So, given that there could be vast numbers of lives at risk, who should we believe then?

    The world-wide consensus of hundreds or thousands of medical specialists and researchers in immunology?

    Or a guy who works at a sandwich shop in South Dakota?

    Dave (1bb933)

  66. We don’t know if there was more flu or a different strain or allergies or more reports… we do know it wasn’t Corona Virus in the states in November. If a people all over the country had this last flu season, it would have spread all over the place. I understand that this idea supports the theory that social distancing doesn’t help… because if it’s been here all along the social distancing is ridiculous. But this is real.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  67. 65. If those medical specialists and immunologists told you, “We have to destroy the country to save it,” would you go along with that recommendation because “experts?” Believe it or not, it’s possible for credentialed experts to be wrong and some sandiwch-slinging bum from the middle of nowhere to be correct.

    After all, it is under the premise of “saving lives” that government wants to take more of your tax money every year and deny you your right to keep and bear arms. I think We the People are generally capable of handling our own affairs, particularly where matters of health are concerned.

    Gryph (2f01e5)

  68. 66. How do we know that? I’m not saying it was; I’m saying it could have been for all we know. There are only three certainties where this thing is involved:

    1. People were showing flu-like symptoms and not testing positive for extant flu strains. This is usually written off to a mutation in that year’s strain, which is highly unusual so early

    2. Those flu-like symptoms were not due to any extant influenza strain for which there was a vaccination developed in 2019

    3. China had covered up knowledge of what turned out to be CoViD-19’s presence in Wuhan, perhaps going back as far as October, in which case its appearance could have plausibly coincided with the North American influenza season

    I’m not dealing in certainties here, folks. But you can no more say “it wasn’t Coronavirus” than I can say it was.

    Gryph (2f01e5)

  69. When I was very sick last December (over Christmas), I believed I had the flu. I eventually had to go to Urgent Care and the doctor I saw said it was an upper respiratory infection. Fever & horrendous coughing spasms that seemed to go on forever. I was exhausted and in bed for a week before having the energy to move to the couch (also didn’t want to spread it). Now I wonder if that was what this coronavirus feels like. If it’s that, or even worse, then it can indeed be absolutely awful.

    Dana (4fb37f)

  70. How do we know that? I’m not saying it was; I’m saying it could have been for all we know.

    Because it spreads fast. That’s my whole argument. If it were in many places in the USA during the normal time for people to complain they are ill (most illnesses and viruses peak when it’s colder, right?) we would have millions of cases by now.

    . China had covered up knowledge of what turned out to be CoViD-19’s presence in Wuhan, perhaps going back as far as October

    I agree. Not sure about this timeline but I agree that China covered it up as long as they could and are generally the bad guys. As far as I’m concerned the world doesn’t owe China a penny and we should pursue that legally. We also must fix our manufacturing capacity and independence. Instead of hats worshiping a leader saying ‘make america great again’ we should actually make the country great, with no concern for some dumb politician on either side.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  71. Dana (4fb37f) — 3/21/2020 @ 1:17 pm

    BREAKING: Coronavirus “Patient Zero” identified

    🙂

    I had what considered a nasty chest cold in December too. It it actually went away, and then came back shortly after and stayed in mild form for another week or two.

    It had a very strong upper respiratory element too, though, with the usual runny nose, congestion and sneezing type symptoms, so I don’t think it was CV-19.

    Dave (1bb933)

  72. @69. Dana! Similar experience here w/me— from the last week of January– pretty much lost all of February –when it came to even trying to do regular chores. Thought it was allergies at first— literally lost all of February; had a light fever- some chills now and then – thought it was flu w/allergies but with OTC meds it just wouldn’t go away; sneezing, runny nose, literally had to put a heating pad on my back to warm myself up along w/soup… but OMG, YES!!!!!- horrendous coughing spasms— absolutely terrible– to the point of giving one a headache; they just would not stop for minutes at a time round the clock.

    Changed all the furnace and fan filters– must have gone though 5 bottles of cough syrup and as may boxes of tissues and 200 cough drops — but those damn coughing ‘spasms’ just wouldn’t stop! Finally subsided in early March– got the doors open, air circulating… and now it’s just a smll hack now and then whi seems ‘normal.’ But thought the same thing as you. Really hope those w/t virus don’t experience that kind of relentless coughing.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  73. @64. We were founded to be “not Europe”.

    And yet you speak English.

    Ignorance is bliss, ol’bean. Stay happy!

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  74. After all, it is under the premise of “saving lives” that government wants to take more of your tax money every year and deny you your right to keep and bear arms.

    Yeah government must be treated with skepticism and that’s why I like it in Texas. But government is not a bad thing. It must both be used properly and treated with skepticism. Gun laws aren’t so bad in some cases, but we do have the right to protect ourselves. If a cop takes someone’s gun rights away with an affidavit saying they are mentally ill or they beat their wife, that cop is accountable to the people, on whose behalf he or she took those actions.

    If government really were rolling around my neighborhood in an MRAP telling me to stay out of the park it would be different from the government telling bars and restaurants to serve to-go orders due to a specific risk. Either way it’s a problem, but in one case we as a society seem to think it’s OK (or some of us do). We also need to figure out a way to make this work for folks like you. At the same time, doing nothing is not really doing nothing. That would be the choice that kills hundreds of thousands of American (And is the choice Trump made for 7 ish weeks).

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  75. I think the one of the biggest hole in the theory that “flu” cases last year may have Coronavirus is that given what we know about the transmission rate of the Coronavirus our current case load would be much higher. We would’ve been transmitting the virus to each other for months. Exponential growth is a bitch.

    tla (7ab14a)

  76. Things that can’t go on, won’t, and this can’t go on. More people will die in a depression than will even be harmed by this virus. At some point you gotta say eff it, it is what it is.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  77. I’d like to thank Gryph for the interesting discussion. While I disagree I think he brings up a POV that is not considered enough:

    Is the short term loss of life better or worse than the long term damage done by the efforts we have made to preserve it?

    I think the lives we save are worth it but it’s at least worth considering the alternative or alternatives. Maybe a different path (as Gryph suggests) could save as many lives without the long term negative repercussions.

    Nathan (5efffe)

  78. that cop is accountable to the people, on whose behalf he or she took those actions.

    I’m gonna say that while it oughtta be that way, it rarely is. The cop will never pay a dime — the city will — and might even be immune to suit.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  79. I had what considered a nasty chest cold in December too. It it actually went away, and then came back shortly after and stayed in mild form for another week or two.

    It had a very strong upper respiratory element too, though, with the usual runny nose, congestion and sneezing type symptoms, so I don’t think it was CV-19.

    Ditto, for me in February-March. Three weeks of heavy URI and cough/nasal congestion, just ended last week. No fever at all, no aches and pains, no stomach issues. But hack-hack-hack.

    If this thing is worse, I do not want it.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  80. @76. A ‘service economy’ so fragile that it depends on basketball games being played and waitresses getting tips started down that rocky road long ago: Reaganomics.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  81. The really stupid thing about this lockdown is that YOU KNOW that 93% of adults under 40 are spending this time off hanging out and swilling beer (etc) with their friends.

    I see that L.A. stores are only allowing a few people inside, to maintain separation, and everyone else is jammed together outside in a line.

    Not only are we trashing our economy, but we are NOT isolating and we are NOT helping the cause any either. Of course, it nails Trump to the wall, so maybe that’s enough.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  82. Ronald Reagan saved this country from Socialism and stagnation. He just didn’t do it forever.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  83. I don’t have a clue about what kind of flu/virus was going around in October-November 2019, but the flu viruses spike then because October is the start of flu season.

    DRJ (15874d) — 3/21/2020 @ 12:31 pm

    Yes, in Oct/Nov ’19 flu season was especially bad this year. I recall hearing from my colleagues that this was as bad, if not worst, of a flu season in memory.

    whembly (c30c83)

  84. This is going to last a while.

    Patterico, could you please explain why this is worth what we are doing? Or even show that it is doing anything at all?

    What evidence do you have that any lives will be saved? Impoverishing a country in order to save a few will kill many more in the long run than this virus ever will. Especially since nobody is doing what the brainiacs think they should. This is the last gasp of the elite, and if it does not end soon, there won’t be a lamppost unadorned.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  85. @80. Not always- the 89 year old has her birthday tomorrow [likely her last] and the immediate family has decided not to do a close, ‘inside gathering’ given the youngsters were at college [now in lockdown,] their jobs– and the county lawyer was out and about and at work in the courthouse. Her age puts her in the high risk bracket– so they’ll wave to her through the window.

    Sucks.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  86. And yet you speak English.

    Ignorance is bliss, ol’bean. Stay happy!

    I daily work on my ignorance.

    Your stupid is immutable.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  87. @81. ROFLMAO While he was on Social Security and Medicare, eh. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  88. @85. That’s a blissfully North Korean POV. Stay happy!

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  89. It is notable that the GREAT Depression happened only when the central government was provide tools that allowed the entire economy to be dicked with.

    The worst depression in the US lasted from 1873-1879 (or maybe 1873-1896 depending on whether you connect other events) (The Long Depression) and the federal government had almost no power whatsoever. A Federal Reserve might have helped.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  90. More people will die in a depression than will even be harmed by this virus.

    You also said that “Millions die in an economic collapse”.

    I can’t think of one.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  91. @85. That’s a blissfully North Korean POV. Stay happy!

    So is #86.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  92. I can’t think of one.

    Not my fault.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  93. This, ladies and gentlemen, is how government exacerbates economic downturns.

    In this case it is how it has created one.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  94. @90. ‘Welllll….’ and true. 😉

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  95. We’ve found it’s much easier to “socially distance” since my wife and I both retired. We were anticipating a visit from our son, DIL and grandkids for the next several days, but will have to be content to use FaceTime, which works quite well.

    We’ll miss going out to area restaurants, but will do our best to patronize our favorites with to-go orders. I’ve been a conscientious hand washer for the last several years, so that component is BAU.

    Our daughter is a nurse and she told us this morning that one of our local hospitals has tested many people with two positives as results so far, so that appears to be positive.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  96. They can’t be spread, either, if carriers don’t come into contact with new hosts. Concern is for not spreading the virus to anyone, not just the “high-risk” (however you define that). Hence social distancing for everyone.

    Yes, and if my dog had horns he’d be an elk. HALF THE POPULATION IS NOT DOING THIS. The CA governor admits that more than half the people in the state will have this thing in a few weeks. They have STOPPED testing, now that they have tests, because each test uses up gowns and masks that they will need soon. Think of how many people Trump must have saved by not letting them waste all those gowns and masks on tests earlier. (/sarc)

    Simply asserting the benefits from taking action X does not mean diddly if many are not taking action X. All you can actually measure is the cost of pretending they will, and that cost is existential. An existential cost to solve an arithmetic problem is a lousy trade.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  97. 86… you do realize that working people contribute $$$ toward both SS and Medicare throughout their working lives, right?

    I did for 47 years.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  98. Here’s an image from a Ralph’s in Culver City, CA. They won’t let people into the store all at once, so there’s a line outside. This is “pretend social distancing”

    https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/greater-la/grocery-workers-and-coronavirus/ralphs-culver-city-mar-18-2020-amy-ta.jpg/@@images/2410cb2c-8830-4f1e-9ec2-8698fbe81fe1.jpeg

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  99. Nobel laureate economist Milton Friedman, author of A Monetary History of the United States, on the other hand, blamed this prolonged economic crisis on the imposition of a new gold standard, part of which he referred to by its traditional name, The Crime of 1873.[53] Additionally, Friedman pointed to the expansion of the gold supply through Gold cyanidation as a contributor to the recovery.[54] This forced shift into a currency whose supply was limited by nature, unable to expand with demand, caused a series of economic and monetary contractions that plagued the entire period of the Long Depression. Murray Rothbard, in his book History of Money and Banking of the United States, argues that the long depression was only a misunderstood recession since real wages and production were actually increasing throughout the period. Like Friedman, he attributes falling prices to the resumption of a deflationary gold standard in the U.S. after the Civil War.

    Some depression, Kevin.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  100. More people will die in a depression than will even be harmed by this virus.

    You also said that “Millions die in an economic collapse”.

    I’ll repharse for the stupid…

    What you said is BS.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  101. This lockdown has to end soon.

    People who are vulnerable can lock themselves down. Most of them (the elderly, the disabled, the very sick) have alternate means of support anyway. But those means of support will end at some point when the country goes bust. It is effing insane to lock all the “potential carriers” down to save people who should be isolating anyway (and are).

    Any plan that starts with “If everyone would just….” should be rejected at that point.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  102. I see that L.A. stores are only allowing a few people inside, to maintain separation, and everyone else is jammed together outside in a line.

    Same thing in Austin at the older (smaller) HEBs, unfortunately. They don’t let too many inside, so they have everyone stand in line outside. To preserve distancing. It’s an easily managed problem if the store employees go outside and tell people to spread out, but these employees are already exhausted and tired of confrontation after confrontation with that one in ten customer who is a jerk.

    But the perfect is the enemy of the good. What we’re doing is very imperfect. The disease will still rage out of control. Yet this is much better than it would otherwise be. And I think the economic consequences were inevitable.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  103. What you said is BS.

    Well, I guess that settles it then, Ragspierre says so. Again without a damn bit of evidence, as usual, or background or thought, but heck, who am I to argue with that?

    People STARVED to death in the Great Depression. People roamed the land with machine guns, taking and killing. The topsoil in whole states blew away because farmers needed to work every inch of land to break even. Migrants were turned away, or just killed. Medical care was hard to get for free. Suicides were up, violence was rampant. Then we had a really big war to get out of it. It was a terrible time; so terrible that people who lived through it were affected for the rest of their lives.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  104. @96. So? Me, too. You miss the point. He also voted for FDR– four times and ran a union.

    ‘Course you could always give it back to the general fund- Trump donates his salary and specifies where he’s like it to go. He told us so. Again. Today.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  105. Yet this is much better than it would otherwise be.

    I see no evidence of that. We will still get the triage and the deaths. Maybe not like Italy (except maybe in Florida), but maybe so. All we can say for sure is that we will be much poorer.

    And I think the economic consequences were inevitable.

    Perhaps. But so are the deaths. Sometime soon, in the next 3 weeks, we will see both the deaths that this was supposed to prevent, AND we will see widespread civil disobedience as people try to save what they can.

    And I expect that Trump will be on that side, and it may get him re-elected.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  106. @102. Gotta give the 89 year ol’gal credit; when she heard some twit on the TeeVee say this is going to be a depression she blurted out, ‘bullsh!t.’ Back in the day, she’d tell us stories, as a kid, of watching her mother make bacon sandwiches fried up in a big iron skillet, give hot soup and baked bean sandwiches out to hungry men out of work who’d come up to the backdoor asking for food. We still use that old, well seasoned cast-iron skillet. It’s a regular reminder.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  107. People STARVED to death in the Great Depression.

    No spit? Millions? You’re full of crap, Kevin.

    People roamed the land with machine guns, taking and killing.

    As they did in the Roaring 20s. You’re full of crap, Kevin.

    The topsoil in whole states blew away because farmers needed to work every inch of land to break even.

    The Depression wasn’t the reason for the Dust Bowl. You’re full of crap, Kevin.

    Migrants were turned away, or just killed.

    WTF are you even…

    Medical care was hard to get for free.

    Actually, any good is impossible to find for free. You’re full of crap, Kevin.

    Suicides were up, violence was rampant.

    That’s a lie. Crime was quite rare. You’re full of crap, Kevin.

    Then we had a really big war to get out of it.

    Wow. That’s a monumental lie.

    It was a terrible time; so terrible that people who lived through it were affected for the rest of their lives.

    Partly true! A lot of people who lived through it did very well and have no such terrible memories.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  108. I will take 106 as a badge of honor.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  109. Now, you can document “millions die in an economic collapse” for us. While you polish that turd you call a “badge of honor”.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  110. 106, re “Migrants”: Okies, domestically speaking and often blocked from settling in interior western states, and boxcars full instead of buses going southbound – Ike had nothing on FDR in that regard.

    urbanleftbehind (65a3e5)

  111. @106. =sigh=

    https://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/disp_textbook.cfm?smtid=2&psid=3433

    Ignorance is bliss. Stay happy.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  112. Rags, you should really cool it with the personal insults.

    Dave (1bb933)

  113. DCSCA, your link is throwing a warning.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  114. @112. Then you can source it yourself: horse to water; drink if you can.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  115. The quarantine really sucks especially for working men who lose 1 dollar for very 79 cents working women lose.

    rota (d50d48)

  116. @114. Sucks even more if you’re “in a war” and a ‘dollar-a-year man’ a la WW2.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  117. We need to think about the economy. What business models work with social distancing? For example, drive in theaters are doing really well around here. It’s a cheap business.

    curbside grocery. Amazon. telecommuting. Cops are taking a ton more phone reports… maybe police departments should standardize an app for video chats with cops that incorporates other services (non emergency lighting problems, mapping, etc) hell, paying tickets.

    Blue cross has telemedicine now. I bet we see so much more of that.

    Rather than handing out $1k checks… maybe we should give everyone a 5G internet connection using the money to hire people to install it nationwide, and then use another stimulus to hire people to work real jobs, jobs with benefits, for all manner of jobs from census to taxes to tracking Gryph (joke joke). I think outdoor labor, with strict social distance, is totally feasible and jobs lead to dignity that laying around at home do not.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  118. Rags, you should really cool it with the personal insults.

    Maybe, Dave. I just identify conduct. I don’t consider that a personal insult.

    OTOH, I do consider it insulting when people try to tell me crap. I tried to warn him when I said I couldn’t think of an instance were his statement was true. He could have amended, but instead he attacked.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  119. I see no evidence of that

    Not yet.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  120. Then you can source it yourself: horse to water; drink if you can.

    I don’t read minds. I have no idea what nonsense you may have been pointing out.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  121. Dustin @ 116:

    Back around Christmastime, social media twit-ettes and twinks were mean to the Peleton girl’s husband for housetrapping her with a stationary fitness bike. He actually saw the future and sought to protect wifey from the nasty sweaty gym. Now I here the company cant meet demand.

    urbanleftbehind (65a3e5)

  122. 74. Social distancing will not save lives. SMDH…

    Gryph (08c844)

  123. Back around Christmastime, social media twit-ettes and twinks were mean to the Peleton girl’s husband for housetrapping her with a stationary fitness bike. He actually saw the future and sought to protect wifey from the nasty sweaty gym. Now I here the company cant meet demand.

    urbanleftbehind (65a3e5) — 3/21/2020 @ 3:24 pm

    Oh hey that’s a great example. Though really running around one’s neighborhood is much healthier if you’re staying at home, I bet they really are doing great these days.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  124. Social distancing will not save lives.

    Sure it will.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  125. 123. Nope. Isolating the vulnerable will save the lives of the vulnerable. Social distancing is probably going to **** me and millions of others out of our jobs. I can will not accept that as productive, let alone necessary. It’s “We had to destroy the village to save it” all over again.

    Gryph (08c844)

  126. This may sound crazy, but I have an idea that might ameliorate some of this doom. It’s not new, and it hasn’t been tried for a while, but it had a pretty good track record in the past. It’s called liberty.

    Admittedly, this strategy, as its past advocates warned, requires a great deal of personal morality, responsibility, and self-reliance on the part of individual citizens, all of which are in very short supply these days. So I guess that leaves us with nothing but today’s leading strategies: mass panic, susceptibility to mass manipulation, and cowering under the table hoping that our masters in the government will save us.

    Daren Jonescu (ad8e67)

  127. 125. Liberty? What an idea!

    I kind of like the tack that Texas has taken with this. They’re saving closing down businesses as an absolute last resort, but they’re blitzing the airwaves with the “Stay Home if you Can” PSAs. And it sounds like enough people are responding favorably to the PSAs to make a difference with a minimum of disruption. I hope it doesn’t have to go any farther.

    Gryph (08c844)

  128. 124. Yeppers. For one thing, you don’t know who “the vulnerable” might be.

    You want a job? MANY firms are hiring right now.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  129. The theory behind social distancing.

    DRJ (15874d)

  130. . Social distancing is probably going to **** me and millions of others out of our jobs.

    As would the scenes of body bags and hospitals turning away patients because there’s no room in the ICU, and doctors on TV screaming about not enough equipment. (Admittedly they are already doing that now…)

    The economy is going to get screwed up either way. We may at least try to minimize the body bags.

    Kishnevi (e85727)

  131. One week after Sleepy Joe wins the primary and the stock market collapses!

    Lauren Graham welcome to the Hannity Program for some Fair and Balanced analysis!!!

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  132. 127. 129. Panic and desire for economic suicide are thusly noted. Social distancing doesn’t save lives.

    128. There is “theory” behind communism and fascism as well, and I don’t accept those either just because someone tries to explain to me why they work to my benefit.

    Gryph (08c844)

  133. The sad truth of the matter is, CoViD-19 will bankrupt many times more people than it kills.

    Gryph (08c844)

  134. BTW, I think we should expect warmer weather to not have a big impact on the spread of this virus.

    At the moment it’s been reported in every country in the Western Hemisphere, including thise close to or directly athwart the equator. The only countries in Africa which aren’t reporting cases are Libya, Uganda, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique, so it’s present in most of equatorial Africa. Indonesia has a noticeable cluster.

    Which means hot weather even in the equatorial zone at best slows it down slightly.

    Kishnevi (e85727)

  135. Panic and desire for economic suicide are thusly noted.

    No. They aren’t. Accusing people of being panicked or suicidal is just admitting you own weakness.

    People disagree with you, and they have sound reasons for doing so. I think you are factually wrong.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  136. 133. Most viral contagion is slowed somewhat by the presence of stronger UV. Unfortunately, that does not tend to make a significant impact on the ultimate R0. It’ll just draw out the time it takes between generations.

    Gryph (08c844)

  137. 134. Well I have enough people accusing me of being indifferent to loss of life, even as those same people seem indifferent to widespread business bankruptcy. If flattening the curve is what you wish to accomplish, we don’t need massive social distancing nationwide in order to do it. But your “flattening the curve” trope doesn’t take into account the rise in suicides that almost always follow mass economic disruption.

    Gryph (08c844)

  138. I guess Donald’s plan to repeat the term ‘Sleepy Joe’ five hundred billion times obnoxiously until he wins in November wasn’t an bad plan… until Donald fell asleep in his Covid 19 briefing.

    Wake up Mr. Trump… I know it’s hard to not get to go on vacation every 6 hours but you signed up for a job.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  139. The economy is going to get screwed up either way. We may at least try to minimize the body bags.

    Kishnevi (e85727) — 3/21/2020 @ 3:59 pm

    Exactly. Flattening the curve might actually make the economic damage less catastrophic, but the fact is we were headed for a horrible economy even if the government told us to start licking religious artifacts together

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  140. 138. Might make the economic damage less catastrophic? Or worse as businesses are forced to shutter that won’t be able to open? smdh

    Gryph (08c844)

  141. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 11:45 am

    Quite frankly, I find the implication that I value life less than you do to be rank and insulting. GFY.

    That would mean a lot more if it were also untrue.

    frosty (f27e97)

  142. Admittedly, this strategy, as its past advocates warned, requires a great deal of personal morality, responsibility, and self-reliance on the part of individual citizens, all of which are in very short supply these days.

    Indeed, and when people like Gryph abuse their liberty by acting irresponsibly and immorally, placing the health of many others at risk by their selfishness, we’re all worse off for it.

    Dave (1bb933)

  143. 141. You have no way of knowing that, Dave.

    140. And so do you, Frosty. GFY.

    Gryph (08c844)

  144. Unbelievable. I don’t want my job to be forcibly taken from me by dint of “public safety,” and I’m selfish. Un-****ing-believable…

    Gryph (08c844)

  145. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 11:57 am

    Spread depends on R0. Viral contagion will continue to spread unless and until R0 is reduced to <1. And as I've said ad nauseum, there are only two ways to do that: infection or vaccination.

    And as it has been explained ad nauseum, you are wrong. The R0 is a measure of the spread. It is not a magic number that a virus posses. There is a natural R0 the represents the spread in a normal population under normal conditions. That R0 can be adjusted by behavior. No handwashing, packing people together, malnutrition, etc will all increase R0 and are effects of behavior. Other behaviors can reduce it.

    frosty (f27e97)

  146. Gryph,

    Both sides are in a similar situation if you think about it.

    Whether you like it or not, society and government and businesses are all going ahead with a lot of economically damaging social distancing.

    Whether I like it or not, many people are refusing to play along, and will spread the disease. They delay the problem, hopefully making it more manageable, though it’s a big reason to be frustrated we started months late.

    We all have to deal with not getting quite what we needed. I mentioned above I think there are some good business ideas that could keep things moving… not like a month ago, but keep people working. You, with all due respect, definitely need to look into other options. I think we should all be talking about those ideas.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  147. 145. Not quite what I needed?! That’s how you characterize my fear that my hometown is going to be forcibly locked down? I appreciate your half-ass effort to commiserate here, but you’ll have to do better than that if you want to put my mind at ease…

    Gryph (08c844)

  148. There is “theory” behind communism and fascism as well

    Wouldn’t you say science has a bit better track record than communism and fascism, as an approach to understanding the world and improving the human condition?

    That you need to conflate them shows the desperation and utter unseriousness of your position.

    DRJ: “Here is a rational explanation of why social distancing works.”

    Gryph: “But there are entirely unrelated, irrational explanations of things too! Therefore I refuse to accept ANY explanation!”

    Dave (1bb933)

  149. 144. The R0 can be slowed by behavior. Once that lockdown is let up, the virus goes back to spreading as quickly as it did before. What’s so difficult about that? Immunity halts viral contagion. And there are two ways to confer immunity: the natural immunity of infection, or the artificially induced immunity of vaccination. I get that we don’t have a vaccine yet. If we wait until we do to let up on the social distancing, then it really is a matter of “we had to destroy the village to save it.” It could literally be months, or years.

    Gryph (08c844)

  150. 134. Well I have enough people accusing me of being indifferent to loss of life, even as those same people seem indifferent to widespread business bankruptcy

    You certainly give the impression you think widespread bankruptcy is worse than widespread loss of life. If you don’t think that, find a better way of expressing your ideas.

    If a lot of people die, we’ll have to wait for God to initiate the Resurrection of the Dead.
    If a lot of businesses go bankrupt and lots of people lose their jobs, then we can deal with in a multitude of ways, politically and as a community. And the bankruptcies/job losses will be a lot less permanent than death.

    Kishnevi (e85727)

  151. Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/21/2020 @ 1:07 pm

    I understand that this idea supports the theory that social distancing doesn’t help… because if it’s been here all along the social distancing is ridiculous.

    He’s setting up more than this. This is part of China’s propaganda that it didn’t start there but came from the US instead.

    frosty (f27e97)

  152. 147. There are rational explanations for why communism and fascism work. That doesn’t mean they do, it just means someone has attempted to explain them to me. There are examples the world over of why those explanations are incorrect, just as the idea of “social distancing saves lives” is provably false. When you quit socially distancing, the virus comes back with a vengeance.

    Gryph (08c844)

  153. HowKud-low can you go? – $2 trillion bailout package and… counting.

    Do another line, Supply-Side-Snowman.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  154. Dana (4fb37f) — 3/21/2020 @ 1:17 pm

    I eventually had to go to Urgent Care and the doctor I saw said it was an upper respiratory infection.

    Sorry, you got sick. Covid is a lower respiratory infection and generally doesn’t present with symptoms of an upper respiratory infection.

    frosty (f27e97)

  155. Here is another way to look at it: Every week you can isolate yourself from other people — any of whom could have coronavirus — is an extra week that:

    1. You can avoid getting sick.

    2. Doctors can experiment with medicines to find out which ones help victims recover faster/better.

    3. Researchers can find vaccines or even cures.

    Each of those is worth something to most people. Increasing the chance you might not get sick or that you could recover more/faster is worth something to most people. How much of your income would all three be worth to you — a week’s worth, a month, a year? Or nothing?

    DRJ (15874d)

  156. 149. That is all assuming that social distancing can save lives — which it does not. Can not. Will not. Flattening the curve will just mean the disruption will take more time.

    Gryph (08c844)

  157. There are rational explanations for why communism and fascism work. That doesn’t mean they do, it just means someone has attempted to explain them to me. There are examples the world over of why those explanations are incorrect, just as the idea of “social distancing saves lives” is provably false. When you quit socially distancing, the virus comes back with a vengeance.

    Jeez, your an idiot. Your gaslighting comparison of two things unrelated is just silly, coffee is better than tea, therefore fire is not hot. It’s a gaslighting for the simpleton.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  158. Flattening the curve will just mean the disruption will take more time.

    Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 4:40 pm

    Time is necessary to save lives when you have limited resources, doctors, beds, ventilators. So that will save lives.

    Everyone’s concerned only with fatalities, but just being hospitalized with this disease is no joke, and the potential lung damage from poor treatment is no joke.

    The economic problems are baked in at this point. Social distancing will save lives and the disaster headed to many family budgets is unfortunately coming regardless.

    I don’t mean to say we shouldn’t help or think about solutions. We must do that. Nobody is really wanting to talk about that though. So you can’t wait tables… we should work out other business ideas.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  159. Here is a fantastic exposition of what has been going on in every country, statistics galore. I read it all and was a bit surprised by his conclusions (but no fair peeking).

    https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

    You will need a good screen to read this with all the graphs and metrics. The good news is that, by all metrics, we seem to be winning. But there is some bad news and some suggestions.

    And, yes, I understand statistics. They kinda drummed them into my head at Mudd.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  160. By the way, I changed my mind about one important thing after reading this because, well, he’s right.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  161. 157. You make it sound so easy, Dustin. So casual. “Well, you can always find a different job.” We’re talking about a depression that will make the 1930’s look like a burp. The more businesses that have to shutter because of lockdowns, the harder it will be for me or anyone else to find a job. I think that if anything, the magnitude of the economic disruption is being understated.

    And I’m going to assume you’re not old enough to remember the difficulty that hospitals had in treating polio and smallpox back in the day; there’s not much they can do at all except to treat symptoms. Viral diseases have to run their course. The reason polio and smallpox are no longer issues is precisely because we got the R0 down to an effective 0. And this has to happen with CoViD-19. It’s the only possible outcome.

    I know a degree of economic disruption is inevitable. But I don’t think the government should be involved in forcing it on people. There is a very real chance, indeed a very significant chance, that the cure could end up being worse than the disease — literally.

    Gryph (08c844)

  162. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 4:28 pm

    Unbelievable. I don’t want my job to be forcibly taken from me by dint of “public safety,” and I’m selfish. Un-****ing-believable…

    That’s not what makes you selfish. I don’t want you to lose your job either and I think it’s perfectly reasonable to be concerned about that. I also think it’s reasonable to worry about government overreach. What makes you selfish is ignoring basic facts, making up other ones, or in some cases simply lying to validate and advocate for a course of action that will have serious consequences because “muh job”.

    frosty (f27e97)

  163. I’ll tell you. At least Bernie Sanders had the honesty to say “Let’s have some socialism, what do you say?”

    He didn’t do it like the Deranged Orange Tatiana Drumpfelshnitzelkovna by first infecting the country with coronavirus* and then bringing socialism as a “bailout”.

    *(Yes, comrades, it’s true, Trump deliberately infected the country with coronavirus in revenge for being impeached, look who’s suffering the most, it’s Democratic states.)

    nk (1d9030)

  164. You make it sound so easy, Dustin. So casual. “Well, you can always find a different job.” We’re talking about a depression that will make the 1930’s look like a burp.

    I have a good attitude because I can control that. I am very aware of the scope of the problem. My personal affairs are on the internet more than I want but trust me I am not sitting on top of my pile of money and secure career. We all need to think about alternatives that are realistic.

    And I’m going to assume you’re not old enough to remember the difficulty that hospitals had in treating polio and smallpox back in the day;

    I’m not.

    I don’t think the government should be involved in forcing it on people.

    The thing is, however you want to characterize what the government did, it has been done. Most folks in human history have lived under far less fair governments, and have turned to their family, their Gods, their communities to pursue happiness. We can’t go back and pasteurize that chinese bat or change our president.

    We’ve got to think about how to keep this country going. I think we all agree about that.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  165. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 4:31 pm

    but you’ll have to do better than that if you want to put my mind at ease

    Who the holy f*** nuts wants to put your mind at ease. We are in the middle of a pandemic that will, even if we did as you propose, donkey punch every last one of us. Your mind should not be at ease. You should be trying to figure out how you are going to adapt to a s*** storm of epic proportions instead of pretending this is something we can just ride out if we put the old people out of site.

    frosty (f27e97)

  166. 161. Lying? On what basis do you accuse me of that? You can accuse me of overreacting to the idea of government overreach, but let me assure you, I have not intentionally spread misinformation and I have no agenda. If someone were able to assuage my fears of losing my job and promise me my hometown would not be a ghost town throughout the coming spring and summer, it would go a long way towards making me believe that we are doing the right thing.

    I. Don’t. Trust. Government. That is my default position on pretty much any question of policy. Most of you here would have agreed with me three months ago. I haven’t changed all that much.

    I did mention that I think Texas is doing a pretty good job of handling this, right? Not sure how I feel about all restaurants being forced to do takeout exclusively, but at least the legislature is resisting the idea of a statewide lockdown. And there are several major population centers. I like the idea of “stay home if you can” and that’s exactly how they’re approaching things there. Not with force, or even force-of-law.

    Gryph (08c844)

  167. 164. It’ll donkey punch every last one of us, eh? You’re wrong. And that’s not me lying, that’s me stating a fact.

    Gryph (08c844)

  168. *Drumpfelschnitzelkovna*

    nk (1d9030)

  169. Great quotes here from Aaron Ginn:

    You may ask yourself. Who is this guy? Who is this author? I’m a nobody. That is also the point. The average American feels utterly powerless right now. I’m an individual American who sees his community and loved ones being decimated without given a choice, without empathy, and while the media cheers on with high ratings.

    When this is all over, look for massive confirmation bias and pyrrhic celebration by elites. There will be vain cheering in the halls of power as Main Street sits in pieces. Expect no apology, that would be political suicide. Rather, expect to be given a Jedi mind trick of “I’m the government and I helped.”

    The health of the State will be even stronger with more Americans dependent on welfare, another trillion-dollar stimulus filled with pork for powerful friends, and a bailout for companies that charged us $200 change fees for nearly a decade. Washington DC will be fine. New York will still have all of the money in the world. Our communities will be left with nothing but a shadow of the longest bull market in the history of our country.

    Gryph (08c844)

  170. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 4:40 pm

    Who told you this? I don’t think this is an idea you developed yourself and it’s certainly not common knowledge.

    frosty (f27e97)

  171. Ahh! statistical analysis by a Breitbart reporter. His basic understanding of what exponential means is fundamentally flawed, he also misunderstands what transmission rates mean. He also continuously uses…instead of refuting it point by point, since it’s been posted for a day someone already did it.

    Sean Huver, an actual scientist, among many who reviewed his work.

    When I want to believe something because it makes me feel good, I often think of the Feynman quote: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool.”
    It’s from this viewpoint that I wish the things you stated are true, but I fear the data shows they are not. Let’s take a few of your major points —

    The situation looks serious, yet we know that this virus is over four months old, so how many of these cases are active? … The total number of cases isn’t illustrative of what we should do now.

    This is true for countries where new daily growth has been stopped or is greatly decreasing, but absolutely not true(!) for countries such as the US where the growth curve has not been flattened. Exponential growth rate means the overwhelming majority of total cases just happened! As I write this on the morning of 3/21, there are 19,624 confirmed cases, meaning 86% of total US cases have occurred in the past 7 days.

    On a per-capita basis, we shouldn’t be panicking

    I’m not sure why there’s an emphasis on this at all, other than to have a “feel-good” statistic. Per-capita basis doesn’t matter at all versus other countries who are ahead of us in the growth curve.
    Would it have made sense to compare per-capita in the middle of February when Trump infamously said, “cases will soon go from 15 to close to zero”? China at that point had over 70,000 thousand cases, so did that comparison mean anything then? No, of course not, and it still doesn’t mean anything today. The only metrics that matter is where the growth rate is now, and whether we’re actually flattening it or not yet (hopefully we are, but the evidence has not shown itself yet).

    but beware of believing metrics designed to intentionally scare like “cases doubling”. These are typically small numbers over small numbers and sliced on a per-country basis

    “Cases doubling” is a byproduct of the growth rate, so it absolutely does matter, as we’re really talking about the growth. Small numbers no longer remain small if growth isn’t tackled. Even with slowdowns immediately appearing in our growth we’re likely to hit 100,000 infected 7–10 days from now. I don’t know many medical professionals who would characterize that as a small number.

    Early reports from CDC, suggest that 12% of COVID-19 cases need some form of hospitalization, which is lower than the projected severity rate of 20%, with 80% being mild cases.

    Here’s a key quote from the CDC link you may have missed: “Data on these cases are preliminary and are missing for some key characteristics of interest, including hospitalization status (1,514), ICU admission (2,253), death (2,001), and age (386).”
    It would be fantastic if 12% holds (and most importantly the growth rate is tackled now), but we don’t have reliable data yet to validate this claim.

    The initial higher fatality rate for the US is trending much lower than originally estimated.

    That’s because we’re still at the beginning of this, not the end. We already have hospitals in NYC/Seattle/Bay Area becoming stressed. Fatality rates have the potential to spike if God forbid we end up having to ration care and decide who gets a ventilator and who does not. Again, it’s too soon to claim this as a valid figure.

    Every local government is in a mimetic race to one-up each other in authoritarian city ordinances to show us who has more “abundance of caution”.

    This is where you start to go off the rails for me. Do you really think China hit the brakes on its entire economy in order to virtue signal how much caution they have for their citizens? Do you really think the economy wouldn’t grind to a halt itself if CDC projections of growth with no lockdown are seen (>50% US pop. Infected)? With no lockdown, and assuming your very rosy 12% figure from the incomplete data, that would still lead to tens of millions of Americans hospitalized in a system that has 924,000 beds that are on average 60% occupied regardless of a pandemic. The economy will become paralyzed by fear if we do nothing, as well as lead to millions of unnecessary deaths.

    I really wish the things I typed were not true, but logic and data leads me to believe they are.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  172. If this thing donkey punches me, it will be because a bunch of blithering morons decided that blind panic was a good basis for setting policy.

    Gryph (08c844)

  173. 169. Who told you that the opposite is true? I’m sure we could both find experts to support our opposing viewpoints. I took some nursing classes in years gone by, but I am not credentialed anyway, and I have feeling you’re not either. So here we are.

    Gryph (08c844)

  174. And I’m going to assume you’re not old enough to remember the difficulty that hospitals had in treating polio and smallpox back in the day;

    Two crises solved by…massive government mandates for vaccination, and polio only impacted 25k people a year, the same as CV-19 in 6 weeks in the US. Your examples of “back in the day” exactly contradict your argument, because back in the day wasn’t before history.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  175. 173. If I thought that we could get this thing licked with massive government mandates for vaccination, I wouldn’t wait for the mandate to go through to line up for my shot. And I’d be dragging everyone I know to the clinic for theirs. Vaccination would do more than flatten the curve — it’s the only thing we can do besides waiting out the infections that would have any meaningful effect on mortality.

    Gryph (08c844)

  176. He said he’s committed to a woman for VEEP. And now that she’s hit the silk, ponder this in difficult times as a ‘unity ticket’ –

    Biden/Haley 2020

    Betcha JoeyBee is.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  177. There will be some backlash blues for those who perceive they were ‘donkey punched’. Interesting to imagine huge changes or the same dumb reactions we’ve had of late.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  178. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 5:10 pm

    It’ll donkey punch every last one of us, eh? You’re wrong. And that’s not me lying, that’s me stating a fact.

    When I say we are all going to take a hit I mean that in a much broader sense that we are all going to get covid. Although I do expect that it won’t be long before every last one of us has a personal face we can put on the virus.

    You can’t complain about economic suicide and at the same time tell me I’m wrong by citing an article that says everyone won’t get the virus itself. In this case that isn’t you lying though.

    frosty (f27e97)

  179. 177. If you get your way, more people will go bankrupt than will catch CoViD-19. And I’d take that to the ever-loving bank.

    Gryph (08c844)

  180. [T]he idea of “social distancing saves lives” is provably false. When you quit socially distancing, the virus comes back with a vengeance.

    The idea of “swimming when you fall into water saves lives” is provably false. When you quit swimming, the water comes back with a vengeance.

    Dave (1bb933)

  181. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 5:19 pm

    I’m sure we could both find experts to support our opposing viewpoints. … So here we are.

    No, here we aren’t. In various comments, I’ve linked to a variety of studies. If you flip the channels it won’t take long to find an expert that disagrees with you. For your part, you’ve waved your hands and made funny noises. I don’t think you can find an expert to support your view of the magic R0 or the argument that there isn’t anything we can do to save any lives.

    frosty (f27e97)

  182. If you get your way, more people will go bankrupt than will catch CoViD-19. And I’d take that to the ever-loving bank.

    I bet you know less about bankruptcy than about virology.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  183. 181. And I bet you know less about economics than either.

    Gryph (08c844)

  184. 179. Nice try, Dave. The water will come back with a vengeance if you’re not a skilled enough swimmer to make it to shore. And then, you can only save yourself if you know how to get back to shore. Given all the uncertainty with which we’re dealing in this thing, a lot of assumptions are being presented as facts that just aren’t proven.

    Gryph (08c844)

  185. OK. You loose.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  186. Ahh! statistical analysis by a Breitbart reporter.

    Yes, that defines him, since he has contributed an article to Breitbart. We need not look further in our aspersion-casting.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  187. *(Yes, comrades, it’s true, Trump deliberately infected the country with coronavirus in revenge for being impeached, look who’s suffering the most, it’s Democratic states.)

    Diabolical!

    Dave (1bb933)

  188. 180 Well you are wrong about that, Frosty. Most of the information on which I’m basing my assertions actually comes from John P.A. Ioannidis, whose credentials are as follows:

    John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

    Neither Professor Ioannidis nor I am claiming that nothing should be done. I am claiming, based on the best available data, that social distancing on the level it is being practiced might very well do more harm than good, and could do more harm than failure to act. Here is at least one credentialed expert who believes as I do. And I’ll grant you there may not be many more like him, but now you can’t say that I have no supporting evidence.

    Gryph (08c844)

  189. Every local government is in a mimetic race to one-up each other in authoritarian city ordinances to show us who has more “abundance of caution”.

    This is where you start to go off the rails for me. Do you really think China hit the brakes on its entire economy in order to virtue signal how much caution they have for their citizens? Do you really think the economy wouldn’t grind to a halt itself if CDC projections of growth with no lockdown are seen (>50% US pop. Infected)? With no lockdown, and assuming your very rosy 12% figure from the incomplete data, that would still lead to tens of millions of Americans hospitalized in a system that has 924,000 beds that are on average 60% occupied regardless of a pandemic. The economy will become paralyzed by fear if we do nothing, as well as lead to millions of unnecessary deaths.

    And this is where you looked back to see what you could pick at.

    His conclusions are: We are doing significant harm, ignoring the first clause of the Hippocratic Oath, by killing the body politic in order to save a few. Instead, if we really want to be saving people we should DO WHAT CHINA DID, and be building hospitals as fast as we can. Not to mention making gowns and gloves and masks and old-style ventilators (the ones with a tube and a bag and no computer) that can be operated by and or with a dumb pump.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  190. From Professor Ioannidis:

    …if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, trauma, bleeding, and the like that are not adequately treated. If the level of the epidemic does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted period. That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity.

    Gryph (08c844)

  191. I bet you know less about bankruptcy than about virology.

    No once. Not effing once have you contributed to a discussion here. All you have is invective, contradiction and bile. Grow up or go away.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  192. Flattening the curve extends the curve, and the depth of the economic disaster is proportional to the length of the curve. Now, I happen to be be 66 yo and have a chronic lung condition. Not good. But destroying the country to save a few people like me is not worth it.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  193. Here’s the deal… Trump’s not responsible for Wuhancoronavirus, Obama was not responsible for H1N1 and Bush was not responsible for SARS.

    Bill Clinton was responsible for only a handful of herpes cases.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  194. 191. I wasn’t going to come right out and say it, Kevin, but I’m glad you said it for me. 😛

    Gryph (08c844)

  195. 192. LOLOL I don’t care who you are or where you’re from, that joke never gets hold. 😉

    Gryph (08c844)

  196. But destroying the country to save a few people like me is not worth it.

    Gryph, and I mean this will all affection, fondness and due regard, has led the conversation down unholy paths.

    I have a few people (who may or not be like you) for whom I would split open the Earth and bury the whole country in its molten core. Be very grateful that I cannot.

    nk (1d9030)

  197. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 5:51 pm

    Do you have a link for that? Because just that little snippet doesn’t give me confidence that he’s really saying everything you’ve been saying. I’d suggest this:

    That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity.

    is something that shouldn’t give you confidence either.

    but now you can’t say that I have no supporting evidence.

    I can’t claim you can’t find an expert. I can still claim you don’t have evidence and it sounds like Ioannidis wants more evidence too. This also doesn’t cover your magic R0 theory.

    frosty (f27e97)

  198. You should all cheer up! The total COVID deaths over its span will be fewer than the typical daily deaths (160,000) and only a fraction of them will be in the U.S. (so far, only about 316 of mostly older people over the past weeks, compared to the typical 7,500 daily death toll). When it’s all over in a few weeks, the public will see through the media-induced panic, and Trump’s popularity will soar even further than it has over his amazing handling of the crisis. Yes, you WILL have the crippling depression that the liberals and NeverTrumps (But I repeat myself) have been praying for — except with the blessing of a re-elected Trump to lead us through it.

    Congratulations!

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde)

  199. And we have flattened the curve already. Have we flattened it enough? All the arguments seem to cast the other side as extreme: Do nothing versus save everyone. Further, the average age of people who die has been somewhere in their 70s, maybe even older. The economic cost decreases rapidly with age.

    We need to balance the cost of what we are doing with the loss that we are GOING to experience. There is no way there will be no deaths EVEN IF we have no triage deaths (from this or from normal things). We have to accept that. We also have to accept an economic cost, but the title of this post (“Recession or Depression”) ought to indicate that we have choices to make other than “auger it in.”

    While there are no doubt some who want the worst possible outcome, so that they can lay it at Trump’s door, I think most people are more reasonable than that. At some point we need to go back to work, having done the best we can.

    Building hospitals, turning out medical supplies in factories, volunteering to help even if it just to change bedpans, these are the things we also need to do. But we can’t just all sit at home and hope it all works out.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  200. the blessing of a re-elected Trump to lead us through it.

    Jesus wept.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  201. No once. Not effing once have you contributed to a discussion here. All you have is invective, contradiction and bile. Grow up or go away.

    Of course you just continue your lies.

    I make a practice of contradicting bullcrap. I won’t just let you slather idiot false statements all over the place, and I know that climbs all over you.

    Without me knowing how false your BS is, I don’t know who would have pushed back on it. So it’s evident I contribute a good bit here.

    Here’s another lil’ taste fer ya, speaking of your “long depression”…

    Profits generally were also not adversely affected by deflation, although they declined (particularly in Britain) in industries struggling against superior, foreign competition. Furthermore, some economists argue a falling general price level is not inherently harmful to an economy and cite the economic growth of the period as evidence.[56] As economist Murray Rothbard has stated:

    Unfortunately, most historians and economists are conditioned to believe that steadily and sharply falling prices must result in depression: hence their amazement at the obvious prosperity and economic growth during this era. For they have overlooked the fact that in the natural course of events, when government and the banking system do not increase the money supply very rapidly, freemarket capitalism will result in an increase of production and economic growth so great as to swamp the increase of money supply. Prices will fall, and the consequences will be not depression or stagnation, but prosperity (since costs are falling, too), economic growth, and the spread of the increased living standard to all the consumers.[56]

    Accompanying the overall growth in real prosperity was a marked shift in consumption from necessities to luxuries: by 1885, “more houses were being built, twice as much tea was being consumed, and even the working classes were eating imported meat, oranges, and dairy produce in quantities unprecedented”. The change in working class incomes and tastes was symbolized by “the spectacular development of the department store and the chain store”.

    My pleasure!

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  202. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/21/2020 @ 5:54 pm

    Flattening the curve extends the curve, and the depth of the economic disaster is proportional to the length of the curve. Now, I happen to be be 66 yo and have a chronic lung condition. Not good. But destroying the country to save a few people like me is not worth it.

    The formula is a little more complicated than that and there are more variables. It’s not a simple question of whether it’s cheaper to let the old people die.

    It’s also neither a few or just people like [you].

    frosty (f27e97)

  203. ms. Jenny from Iowa, who name is ivanka z iowa in slovenian, wants to cheer us all up

    thank you, ms. Jenny

    nk (1d9030)

  204. split open the Earth and bury the whole country in its molten core.

    Yeah, well, I’m not suggesting that it’s not worth destroying the country to save my wife. That’s different.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  205. The formula is a little more complicated

    I believe I said “proportional” which should indicate only a first-order approximation. Obviously there are other factors. But they have less weight. We do NOT have to make the curve as flat as possible, just flat ENOUGH.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  206. Thank you for the communist Chinese propaganda, nk! But thank for not disputing my numbers, despite being a foreign assets.

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde)

  207. As far as China is concerned, we are dealing with a would-be world player whose system is dysfunctional, broken and rests on lies. It is not a complete accident that the filth, squalor and corruption they tolerate has repeatedly led to this kind of thing. If we do nothing about it, it will happen again; especially when they see how much it hurts us.

    Something has to change, or their integration into the rest of the world has to be rethought.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  208. You should all cheer up! The total COVID deaths over its span will be fewer than the typical daily deaths (160,000) and only a fraction of them will be in the U.S. (so far, only about 316 of mostly older people over the past weeks, compared to the typical 7,500 daily death toll). When it’s all over in a few weeks, the public will see through the media-induced panic, and Trump’s popularity will soar even further than it has over his amazing handling of the crisis. Yes, you WILL have the crippling depression that the liberals and NeverTrumps (But I repeat myself) have been praying for — except with the blessing of a re-elected Trump to lead us through it.

    Congratulations!

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde) — 3/21/2020 @ 6:06 pm

    Jenny you sound old. Go wash your hands.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  209. Yeah, well, I’m not suggesting that it’s not worth destroying the country to save my wife. That’s different.

    But it’s not just about you, or your wife. 20% of the fatalities aren’t olds in the midst of their decrepitude.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  210. 195… another Marvel Super Hero. Or just some bad spanakopita…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  211. Without me knowing how false your BS is

    We all rely on you. Have we thanked you enough?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  212. Jenny, are you and MAOA married, because you are living in the same house using the same computer?

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  213. 196. Ioannidis is asserting that the evidence we have is faulty and insufficient on which to base policy. Or did you miss the part of that article where he mentioned it would be quite possible to do more harm than good with social distancing policy?

    There’s nothing magical about R0. Once we get it down to 0, whether by infection or synthetic immunity, CoViD-19 will stop spreading. Until we do, it will continue to spread. It’s mathematics. We can slow the spread, but we can’t stop it with behavioral changes — another point that Professor Ioannidis drives home in multiple paragraphs.

    I hear over and over, “You have no evidence for your assertions.” But the whole point of my assertions is that the evidence for large-scale social distancing is just as lacking.

    To wit:

    The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.

    The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

    Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

    A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.

    Totally irrational. This, from a credentialed expert.

    Gryph (08c844)

  214. Kevin, you have the same capacity for learning and contrition as Donald J. Trump.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  215. But it’s not just about you, or your wife. 20% of the fatalities aren’t olds in the midst of their decrepitude.

    Every chart I’ve seen up to recently says that about 96% of fatalities are aged 60 or above, with 86% above 70. Statistics don’t change that fast unless significant new criteria are used.

    And look, a correction: 20-64, NOT 20-44. But all those other news articles are printed. Wonder what part of that was in the 60-64 range.

    March 20, 2020 — Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story misstated the age range for COVID-19 deaths. The headline of this story was corrected to read “20% of COVID-19 deaths were aged 20-64 years” and the text was adjusted to reflect the correct age range.

    https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927196

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  216. What a little troll you are.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  217. Our communities will be left with nothing but a shadow of the longest bull market in the history of our country

    That long bull market never got to a lot of places in this country, in the first place.

    Kishnevi (e85727)

  218. 216. I’ll tell you, if I were a wealthy businessman a la Trump, I don’t think I’d be nearly as worried about an economic downturn as I am working about 20 hours a week in a sandwich shop.

    Gryph (08c844)

  219. And if a “study” gets the age range that wrong, what else did it get that wrong?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  220. As we face a crippling depression and Trump sleeps through his job, literally refusing to help, lying and playing at resorts for weeks while admitting he knew we had a pandemic, bragging that the DOW stayed high while the insiders cashed out (with the retirement money of millions of hard working Americans), just imagine:

    The one or two trolls (with 6-7 sockpuppets) here have to try to defend him. And they try so hard!

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  221. Dustin and Colonel Kline,

    Congratulations! Your comments are content and statistic-free! And also humorless and unoriginal.

    So, give me a ballpark for the total COVID deaths in the United States by July 1. I dare you.

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde)

  222. One thing that I’ve learned in my life is that a disruption this big will be used by scoundrels to further their aims. Maybe more than one set of scoundrels.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  223. As we face a crippling depression and Trump sleeps through his job

    Are we back to “Trump should do more” again?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  224. Are we back to “Trump should do more” again?

    Not meeting your approval…???

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  225. I wouldn’t call it a bull market. I would call it a pig market. You know, as in “bulls make money, and bears make money, but pigs don’t make money.” I would say that it has dropped to its true valuation at around 19,000. The 10,000 (between 19,000 and 29,000) was unrealistic market cap without basis in either assets, profit and loss, or return on investment. A Ponzi scheme, a house of cards, a betting parlor where you were bound to lose if you stayed at the table long enough.

    nk (1d9030)

  226. So, give me a ballpark for the total COVID deaths in the United States by July 1. I dare you.

    Jenny/MAOA, this isn’t a casino with you betting on March Madness, this is people’s lives.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  227. So, give me a ballpark for the total COVID deaths in the United States by July 1. I dare you.

    A quarter million.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  228. Actually, that’s low.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  229. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/21/2020 @ 2:54 pm

    I put Ragspierre in my filter. You may wish to do likewise.

    felipe (023cc9)

  230. I’ll tell you, if I were a wealthy businessman a la Trump, I don’t think I’d be nearly as worried about an economic downturn as I am working about 20 hours a week in a sandwich shop.

    Apply for financial aid and start taking some classes to get a better job.

    Dave (1bb933)

  231. Apply for financial aid and start taking some classes to get a better job

    Costco’s hiring, Amazon is hiring, they have drug tests and background checks though.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  232. Seriously, Gryph wants to sacrifice a huge number of his fellow country-men and -women to save a 20 hour a week sandwich shop job?

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  233. “Learn how to code” is anathema here, comrades. Take it to Vox.

    nk (1d9030)

  234. “Jenny/MAOA, this isn’t a casino with you betting on March Madness, this is people’s lives.”

    Excellent evasion! Because giving an estimate in a blog comment will certainly COST LIVES — maybe MILLIONS! I now understand your reluctance.

    Before you imparted your great wisdom, I assumed the response and panic were supposed to be in some way proportional to the number of expected deaths — based on a reasonable estimate. But now I understand that even offering an estimate is anti-scientific, apparently because it will KILL PEOPLE. So that’s why it doesn’t matter whether it kills 5,000 or 5,000,000, as those numbers are completely a relevant in determining what we should do. Bravo!

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde)

  235. Excellent evasion! Because giving an estimate in a blog comment will certainly COST LIVES — maybe MILLIONS! I now understand your reluctance.

    Before you imparted your great wisdom, I assumed the response and panic were supposed to be in some way proportional to the number of expected deaths — based on a reasonable estimate. But now I understand that even offering an estimate is anti-scientific, apparently because it will KILL PEOPLE. So that’s why it doesn’t matter whether it kills 5,000 or 5,000,000, as those numbers are completely a relevant in determining what we should do. Bravo!

    Well, you answered your own question with your other alias, you should pay closer attention to your VPN.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  236. if mr. president donald trump, who is only one operation and a high quality wig away from completing his sex change, takes us out of the recession he put us in it will be a good thing

    i will send him a thank you note

    if they allow mail at super-max prison alzheimers’s wards

    nk (1d9030)

  237. Are we back to “Trump should do more” again?

    Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/21/2020 @ 6:30 pm

    Never left! Pointing out how hilariously awful Trump is will be the most entertaining thing that brings our people together as we toast rats in the fireplaces from our old tube TV sets as Corona Terminators close in on the resistance.

    He literally fell asleep on the job after years of whining that Biden is too sleepy. Come on! It’s really fun.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  238. Jenny, are you and MAOA married, because you are living in the same house using the same computer?

    What are you talking about? 1. I don’t know Jenny. 2. I checked the hashes on this page and don’t see how we used the same IP address. Where are you thinking you see that?

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  239. “Learn how to code” is anathema here, comrades. Take it to Vox.

    Coding maybe not best choice for Comrade Gryph. Many other possibility.

    Dave (1bb933)

  240. For what it’s worth, I’m in the bath on my mobile and Jenny ain’t here. I’m not, however, philosophically opposed to having her join.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  241. 231. And you’re willing to sacrifice millions of jobs to save an indeterminate number of lives. Looks like two sides of the same coin to me, although we don’t have to shut down entire sectors of the economy in order to flatten the curve. Let’s stipulate that I don’t know you, and I don’t give a s**t about your elderly infirm grandma, and you don’t give a s**t about how I’m going to continue making my house payments and pay for my groceries over the coming months. We good?

    Gryph (08c844)

  242. “Well, you answered your own question with your other alias, you should pay closer attention to your VPN.”

    Another content-free evasion. And I see your mad interweb detective skliz are as good as your pandemic forecasting.

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde)

  243. 229. And I don’t need a better job. I’d like to keep the one I have. Barring that, I’d kind of like a reasonable assurance that there will be jobs for me to apply for after this thing blows over. The “flatten the curve” crowd can’t give me that assurance because they’d rather destroy the village in order to save it.

    Gryph (08c844)

  244. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 6:22 pm

    Or did you miss the part of that article

    You’re asking me about an article you didn’t link but are selectively quoting in comments? One that also has a lot of if’s and may’s that you’ve put a lot of hope into?

    I also missed the part were his analysis incorporates what’s going on in Italy, when he did his analysis, whether he’s incorporated any information from China and if so what, etc.

    Based on his 0.05% number the US has 600k instead of 24k and Italy has closer to 9M than 53k. Widespread testing should clean up some of those numbers so hopefully, we’ll find out soon enough.

    frosty (f27e97)

  245. only one operation and a high quality wig

    scuttlebutt says theres a long waiting list for both at walter reed

    Dave (1bb933)

  246. No, because I care about the future of the country and the world. That means the youth.

    I’m less concerned about the deaths in general than I am about injury to people’s lungs, hearts, kidneys, ovaries and testes, etc. I am willing to take some financial disruption to prevent that huge threat to the future of humanity and also, I might add, to the long term economy.

    Of course I also hope the aged and sick survive. I’m just telling you where my priorities lie and why.

    I get Kevin and your argument. I just think you’re wrong. A lot of widespread injury to the recovered will be horrible for our futures. We need to delay the spread as long as possible until we have sufficient anti-virals and protocols to treat everyone early.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  247. I checked the hashes on this page and don’t see how we used the same IP address.

    You need to read more carefully and look for the other indicator you apparently didn’t know about.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  248. 243. The good professor addresses the problems with the data extant, which I would assume also includes Italy. The only truly reliable information we have, as I have said before and as Professor Ioannidis points out, is from the Diamond Princess. If you’d like to see how he extrapolates that data and its implications, here’s your link. I do suggest you read the whole thing.

    Since I have already quoted that article quite extensively, let me quote one more relevant paragraph here:

    If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths. This sounds like a huge number, but it is buried within the noise of the estimate of deaths from “influenza-like illness.” If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.

    Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?

    The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.

    In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns. Unfortunately, we do not know if these measures work. School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize anyhow, if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt their parents ability to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age group that is spared serious disease.

    Gryph (08c844)

  249. I’d kind of like a reasonable assurance that there will be jobs for me to apply for after this thing blows over. The “flatten the curve” crowd can’t give me that assurance because they’d rather destroy the village in order to save it

    I can’t give you that assurance. I rather suspect many people are and will be financially hurt by this. Some will even die earlier as a result.

    However, less than if we let those disease run rampant before we have protocols and drugs in place to treat the affected early when they can actually work well.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  250. 247. I said one more relevant paragraph. It ended up being a few. But I think it has to be said. Loudly and repeatedly.

    Gryph (08c844)

  251. 248. Yup. Destroy the village to save it. SMDH…

    Gryph (08c844)

  252. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 7:02 pm

    We good?

    To paraphrase; we’re pretty f****** far from good.

    Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 7:04 pm

    Just like your mind shouldn’t be at ease no one is going to give you assurances about your future. That you are desperately craving someone do that for you is not a small part of why “[it] looks like two sides of the same coin to [you]”.

    frosty (f27e97)

  253. 251. Even more “we have to destroy the village to save it.” SMDH…

    Gryph (08c844)

  254. So if you’ve determined Jenny and I are the same person, despite, so far as I can tell, us not really agreeing with each other that much and us posting from different IP addresses, care to enlighten us with your slam dunk proof?

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  255. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 7:11 pm

    Have you considered that by the time the good professor has the data to know whether he’s right or wrong there won’t be anything anyone can do to prevent both an economic meltdown and catastrophic loss of life?

    frosty (f27e97)

  256. 254. So instead we’ll start the economic meltdown early and hope that we’re right with virtually no supporting evidence that actually means anything. In what universe is this good policy?!

    Gryph (08c844)

  257. From the Professor:

    One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.

    This, ladies and gentlemen, has been our government’s biggest failure. I believe we had the means to accrue this data, and we didn’t. If there is one thing in all this that our federal government is to blame for, it is precisely the formation of policy recommendations (and let’s face it; I don’t trust them to remain recommendations for too much longer) with faulty data just as Professor Ioannidis describes:

    If we decide to jump off the cliff, we need some data to inform us about the rationale of such an action and the chances of landing somewhere safe.

    Gryph (08c844)

  258. 254. So instead we’ll start the economic meltdown early and hope that we’re right with virtually no supporting evidence that actually means anything. In what universe is this good policy?!

    Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 7:22 pm

    Close.

    We obviously have evidence and imperfect knowledge. You saw that video of the Italian hospital? One of the flaws of risk averse decision making is not seeing how risk and reward are the same thing. We’re probably realizing massive gains right now. It is human nature to avoid these risks, even if inaction is a choice. Note Trump’s fixation on keeping the DOW up by lying and waffling and inaction, then when it’s too late, showing disinterest in reality, flailing at this cure he found. Hard choices necessarily suck.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  259. 257. Probably? Or maybe? You can’t say that with any certainty. You know you really can’t. I don’t think this choice has to be as hard as it’s shaping up to be. Not if we just get our heads on straight and stop using panic as the basis for policy.

    Gryph (08c844)

  260. So if you’ve determined Jenny and I are the same person, despite, so far as I can tell, us not really agreeing with each other that much and us posting from different IP addresses, care to enlighten us with your slam dunk proof?

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/21/2020 @ 7:19 pm

    You mean your really silly effort to act as three different people, all of whom are trolls who adore Trump? Do you realize how absurd you sound, checking to make sure your IP address is different, answering your own questions, ‘so far as you can tell’? Boy you are special.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  261. I’ll take that as a no; you were talking out of your ass, Colonel Klink (Ret).

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  262. Barring that, I’d kind of like a reasonable assurance that there will be jobs for me to apply for after this thing blows over

    No one can give you that assurance. But the thing is, you would be just as likely to lose your job if we did things your way. Unusually large number of people dying at once does that to an economy. And it would be unusually large number of people dying even under ypir expert’s scenario. All he’s doing is to say it won’t be as huge as others are complaining.

    And do remember this economic state of arrest is not limited to the US. It’s happening everywhere.

    If people go bankrupt or lose their jobs, we can help them.
    If people die of COVID19, we can post a nice obituary in their memory.

    Kishnevi (e85727)

  263. 217… I feel for you here, gryph. So many unknowns. It is my sincere hope that you come out of this as unscathed as is possible.

    There will be opportunities as we come out the other side of this. If the online approach works, we may see it change our approach to higher education. Some of the college campuses will be re-purposed as education becomes more affordable. The $10K degree may actually materialize. What a blessing that would be for our young folks!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  264. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 7:32 pm

    Yet you are panicking about the economic consequences.

    I may lose my job. I may also get COVID19, and, since I am in high risk category (60+, screwed up immune system…), die from it.

    I am a lot more concerned about the second possibility than the first.

    Kishnevi (e85727)

  265. Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 7:22 pm

    Do you know what this quote means:

    Draconian countermeasures have been adopted in many countries. If the pandemic dissipates — either on its own or because of these measures — short-term extreme social distancing and lockdowns may be bearable.

    It means that the professor does not believe:

    Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 4:40 pm

    That is all assuming that social distancing can save lives — which it does not. Can not. Will not. Flattening the curve will just mean the disruption will take more time.

    I asked you who told you that and that led to an expert who thinks we should have more data before we drag out this social distancing any more than we need too.

    So, we’ll try again. Who told you that it can not and will not save lives? Because that is a lie that you’ve been pushing for several days. You don’t have any evidence for that and you’ve been given evidence to the contrary. The expert you gave to back up this statement doesn’t believe that is true and says as much.

    frosty (f27e97)

  266. Good point. Gryph is panicking massively.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  267. 262. I’m not a young kid anymore. For all we know, destroying the village to save it might be wholly unnecessary. In fact, I think the best available data that we do have suggests that is precisely the case. When it comes to data gathering, I know we can do better here in the US.

    263. Of course I am panicking about the economic consequences! Would you if federal policy might end up needlessly nuking the entire US GDP? I have far more evidence that my job is in danger than you do that you could die of CoViD-19.

    Gryph (08c844)

  268. 166. *Why wouldn’t you if federal policy might end up needlessly nuking the entire US GDP?

    Gryph (08c844)

  269. Make America Ordered Again (f28c9c)
    Jenny from Iowa (f28c9c)
    Jenny from Iowa (f28c9c)

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  270. Because the economy is going to be nuked anyway.

    We’re just trying to limit the damage, medical and economic, and come out of this the best we can.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  271. Wierdness, because what I see shows MAOA is indeed alone in his bathtub.

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde)

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

    Kishnevi (e85727)

  272. Make America Ordered Again (f28c9c)
    Jenny from Iowa (f28c9c)

    That’s weird. I literally don’t see that. I see (23f793) for me and (357dde) for her.

    What does everyone else see?

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  273. Can you give timestamps and/or numbers for where you see those comments (one of hers, one of mine) with the same hash? And are they both under this thread?

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  274. There are more days than today, more threads than this one.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827)

  275. ? I have far more evidence that my job is in danger than you do that you could die of CoViD-19.

    And at some point both of us will find other jobs.

    Whereas if I die, I’ll just have to wait for the Master of the Universe to unlock the Dew of the Resurrection.

    Kishnevi (e85727)

  276. 269. If you want to limit the damage, then work on protecting the vulnerable and letting the rest of us live our lives the best we can and be productive citizens. You don’t need massive nationwide shutdowns of the entire economy. And while I must concede that The Professor is asking for better data before such a determination is made one way or the other, the tone of his whole piece did seem rather skeptical to me. His extrapolation of the Diamond Princess data was quite optimistic and belies the notion that the economy is going to be nuked anyway. I utterly reject the notion that the village must be destroyed in order to save it.

    Gryph (08c844)

  277. 274. Not if most businesses in my hometown have closed. And I would be particularly upset if I were to find out after the fact that the business which shuttered did so needlessly because policy was built on blind panic and the attendant faulty data.

    Gryph (08c844)

  278. I’ve brought this up before, but it seems to me that one way out of the lockdown would be to produce affordable PPE that would allow people to do most jobs without fear of transmitting the germ.

    This can’t happen overnight, but likely faster than a vaccine.

    Quarantines and social distancing aren’t 100% effective, and PPE wouldn’t need to be 100% effective either, to replace them.

    Unless the design is extraordinarily clever, eating and drinking safely with others is probably not feasible. But a lot of other things might be.

    One important aspect would be to incorporate some kind of reusable design, for instance a replaceable filter or one that can be disinfected.

    Given the extent of economic damage we’re facing otherwise, this really seems like an obvious strategy that should be pursued urgently.

    Dave (1bb933)

  279. Wierdness, because what I see shows MAOA is indeed alone in his bathtub.

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde)

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

    Kishnevi (e85727) — 3/21/2020 @ 7:52 pm

    lol Kishnevi

    Drats, but I am alone in the tub.

    So it looks like a weird WordPress glitch, unless Colonel Klink can post the timestamps and/or comment numbers where they are the same and we all see it that way. I take it as a given that he wasn’t being deceptive and sees it that way on his end for some reason.

    Odd.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  280. 277. Have you ever seen Repo: The Genetic Opera? I could so envision just that kind of dystopian world.

    Gryph (08c844)

  281. There are more days than today, more threads than this one.

    Colonel Klink (Ret) (305827) — 3/21/2020 @ 7:54 pm

    Start with one. Thread and timestamps for each of our comments.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  282. Gryph at 23. “Viral diseases can’t be cured, and treatment is of limited utility.”

    The first part of this depends, I guess, on the definition of “cure”. Hepatitis C is a viral disease. One example of an effective drug, Harvoni (which is a combination of Ledipasvir and Sofosbuvir) has been “… proven to cure 96–99% of adult patients who had Hep C genotype 1 and no prior treatment with 12 weeks of therapy.” This is from harvoni.com and defined “cure” as “… the Hep C virus is not detected in the blood when measured three months after treatment is completed.”

    The second part is arrant nonsense. Ask Magic Johnson whether his treatment for HIV/Aids, which is of course a viral disease, has been of limited utility.

    JoeH (f94276)

  283. Colonel Klink (Ret.):

    If you can tell us one example where Jenny my from Iowa and myself shared the same IP address, I’d appreciate it. You’ve made the accusation so you should take the time to show where. It shouldn’t take long. All you need to do is tell us the thread(s) and timestamp where we each used the same IP according to that code with the comment.

    I, for a fact, am not Jenny and have never posted as Jenny. I’d be irate if Jenny posted as me so I’d like to know!

    I should be able to read any comment she may have posted under my name and tell whether I wrote it or not. However, you’re the one who said you saw this and kishnevi and myself have not. So can you tell is where, please and thank you, Colonel Klink?

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  284. Well-adjusted people can laugh off (or just ignore) opinions they disagree with.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  285. 281. Magic Johnson will have to take those drugs for the rest of his life. I’d call that “limited utility.” It’s sure as s**t not a cure as I understand the term.

    As for Hep C, the figures I’ve seen suggest a ~90% clearance rate with the treatment you describe. That’s not bad. But if 10% of CoViD-19 sufferers die from that disease, then we collectively s**t ourselves as a nation and commit economic suicide. Go figure.

    Gryph (08c844)

  286. MAOA, just re-read how you deny things, and your weird conversation about showering with your bizarrely abrupt (pent up) troll sockpuppet. Even without the hash it’s super obvious. And hilarious.

    Why do you think this keeps coming up with you?

    Just go pick a new VPN server and start over with a brand new weirdo name. We’ll still know it’s you though.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  287. I’ve brought this up before, but it seems to me that one way out of the lockdown would be to produce affordable PPE that would allow people to do most jobs without fear of transmitting the germ.

    Dave, you couldn’t have a more practical idea. Who makes paper products in this country?

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  288. These comments from Make America Ordered Again:

    here and here

    share the same IP address as these comments from Jenny from Iowa:

    here and here

    And all four comments therefore share the same hashtag: (f28c9c).

    Patterico (115b1f)

  289. @52 I provided several reasons in answer to your questions and then people below me provided several more. Even your own answer shows that the market was in ongoing decline until 1932 and the government wasn’t doing any major interfering.

    @242 Unfortunately, that is the problem with having a job that doesn’t require either a professional degree or a specialized skill set and training and/or a union membership, you end up living in a far more volatile job market than people who have jobs that doe require one or more of those things. Even in the best of times your job is not very secure, but in the end that is capitalism, there is a large supply of people who have the education, skills, and ability to make sandwiches while the demand for those people can be very dependent on other factors.

    Nic (896fdf)

  290. Anyone can click on all four comments to verify the identical hashtag, which verifies the identical IP address.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  291. I have seen commenters with the same IP in recent years. One explanation is they are the same person but it can also happen if they use cell phones to access the internet and comment. I don’t think cell phones use dedicated IP addresses so people using the same phone carrier might have the same IP address on occasion.

    DRJ (15874d)

  292. Colonel Klink is being honest. I searched using Google and the operator: site:Pat’sURL (f28c9c) and found a comment from Jenny:

    (1) Nobody in this comment thread is afraid of the coronavirus.
    (2) Nobody in this thread is wearing a facemask.
    (3) Nobody in this thread is taking precautions beyond what they would for the flu.
    (4) Nobody in this thread believes that the administration isn’t doing a good job of protecting the public.
    (5) Everybody in this thread is overjoyed that the press has whipped up market-panicking fear over the coronavirus, because they think that will take down Trump.
    (6) Everybody in this thread will be disappointed in a few weeks that not enough people have died from the coronavirus to justify continued panic.
    (7) Trump will be re-elected.

    Jenny from Iowa (f28c9c) — 3/9/2020 @ 1:05 pm

    I didn’t write this and I disagree with almost all of it (1 is particularly nonsense), except possibly for seven and I’m now unsure of that.

    I also found comments that I definitely did write.

    So, Jenny did NOT pretend to be. However, I am not Jenny.

    My best guess is that my cell phone company uses a limited range of IP addresses or something similar. Beyond that, I can’t explain it.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  293. 288. Accepting that a panic-driven policy will nuke virtually every unskilled job in America because they won’t reopen after being forcibly shut down is not “capitalism.” It’s called “destroying the village to save it.” And I don’t care how many sob stories I hear about decrepit grannies; it will take far more than that to convince me that is good policy.

    Gryph (08c844)

  294. I also go, or used to go pre-pandemic, to Starbucks. If you recall from using their Internet, they have a system that automatically logs you in when you use a previously registered device. Maybe it has something to do with that. I doubt they have an infinite range of IP addresses and it probably routes through a central server that they own. Much like in the olden days all Blackberry data went through a central server for security.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  295. Make America Ordered Again (23f793) — 3/21/2020 @ 8:13 pm

    Google is a thing

    Dave (1bb933)

  296. Is PPE personal protective equipment?

    DRJ (15874d)

  297. Yes, DRJ

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  298. Latest flu statistics for this season:
    So far this season, there have been at least 32 million flu illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths from the flu. This season’s flu vaccines are reducing children’s doctor visits for the illness by 55%, according to CDC estimates.

    [redacted URL because I can’t get them through the spam filter]

    Why not a breathless report on each of the 32 million new flu diagnoses or the 18,000 deaths?

    But golly gee, no, it’s not all about Trump.

    Jenny from Iowa (f28c9c) — 3/9/2020 @ 4:16 pm

    Unlike Jenny’s other comment, that’s something I might have said, but didn’t. I do suspect some flu cases, including death, probably hid coronavirus cases, or at least that that’s plausible and should be investigated.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  299. 295. Yup. And it tends to come in grades, with the most effective being the most expensive. N95-class masks technically aren’t supposed to be used for medical applications, but they strike a good enough balance between efficacy and cost, so OSHA has relaxed some of the former standards on the matter.

    Gryph (08c844)

  300. Trumpkins are generic.

    nk (1d9030)

  301. Dave, you couldn’t have a more practical idea. Who makes paper products in this country?

    3M makes some protective masks.

    From what I understand N95 masks are costly and labor-intensive to make, so we need somebody to come along with a Henry Kaiser liberty-ship style design that slashes the time and production cost, perhaps with the trade-off that these masks will not filter out all bad things, but just the coronavirus.

    Dave (1bb933)

  302. 300. Good luck with that. N95 masks are probably the cheapest masks that OSHA will allow for medical applications, and they are far-and-away not the cheapest masks that 3M makes.

    Gryph (08c844)

  303. I have seen commenters with the same IP in recent years. One explanation is they are the same person but it can also happen if they use cell phones to access the internet and comment. I don’t think cell phones use dedicated IP addresses so people using the same phone carrier might have the same IP address on occasion.

    DRJ (15874d) — 3/21/2020 @ 8:30 pm

    IPv4 ran out of addresses ages ago so yeah it’s theoretically possible. Odds are one in 4.2 billion unless there’s a different explanation (like folks sharing a household).

    If you recall, I used to give the benefit of the doubt (Even when I knew otherwise) just to be polite. But this one is clear and unclever, to me.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  304. 288. Accepting that a panic-driven policy will nuke virtually every unskilled job in America because they won’t reopen after being forcibly shut down is not “capitalism

    Oh, those unskilled jobs will be back. We may not need stockbrokers, but we will always need janitors.

    Kishnevi (e85727)

  305. @292 Every unskilled job in America is always in danger of being nuked by some otherwise unforeseen event. Most people in those jobs don’t think about that reality all that often, but it’s true. People with in demand or specific skill sets are more likely to be retained as long as possible, even at economic cost, in times of trouble because they are more difficult to replace. People who can be replaced more easily are much less likely to be retained at economic cost. It sucks for people like you in that position and you don’t have to like it (I certainly wouldn’t), but it is the reality.

    Nic (896fdf)

  306. 300. Good luck with that. N95 masks are probably the cheapest masks that OSHA will allow for medical applications, and they are far-and-away not the cheapest masks that 3M makes.

    Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 8:41 pm

    Sounds like a job opportunity. If this is really a WWII event, we need to be asked to do a little more than watch Hulu and bicker on the internet. We’ve got amazing decentralized production tech now with 3D printers and those Cricut machines (I don’t really know what I’m talking about, but we have cool machines at home that make things).

    What if we could 3D print molds for masks, make some kind of seal, and install a few layers of paper in them? What if these masks could be based on a scan of a specific person’s face, and therefore more comfortable? Hell, install alexa in it.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  307. I have seen commenters with the same IP in recent years. One explanation is they are the same person but it can also happen if they use cell phones to access the internet and comment. I don’t think cell phones use dedicated IP addresses so people using the same phone carrier might have the same IP address on occasion.

    DRJ (15874d) — 3/21/2020 @ 8:30 pm

    Thanks for pointing that out, DRJ.

    So, I’m glad that Jenny is a unique commenter, not a sock, and did not impersonate me. Colonel Klink was likewise honest and, despite my earlier skepticism, even Dustin had a good faith reason for his belief.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  308. Not something I know anything about, but surgical masks *do* have some benefit. If supply were no longer an issue, people could presumably wear more than one at a time with greater benefit.

    Also, the claim is that surgical masks prevent infected people from spreading the germ. If so, when everyone is masked, that means nobody can spread it (in principle). You would get the benefit of stopping germs coming *from* infected people AND the benefit of stopping germs going *to* uninfected people.

    At some point, it must break even with more intrusive (and costly) measures.

    Dave (1bb933)

  309. 304. I didn’t realize that policy shifts were “unforeseen.” We’re not talking about shifts in the markets because of CoViD-19. We’re talking about how to respond to it, specifically with the “destroy the village to save it” mentality. I’ll admit that hasn’t happened yet. But I am opining that it shouldn’t, and that it very well could, given the ease with which we’ve surrendered freedoms permanently in the past.

    Gryph (08c844)

  310. IP address spofing.

    Jenny from Iowa is probably Ivan iz Minska.

    nk (1d9030)

  311. Odds are one in 4.2 billion unless there’s a different explanation (like folks sharing a household).

    Nah, 4.2 billion is the wrong number. Cell phone companies, to name (I also think it could be starbucks), route data through central servers for, among other things, data compression to reduce network load, and don’t have infinite IP addresses, like DRJ said. In any case, you can think what you like and I know for a fact I am not Jenny. I checked in the bath.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  312. IP address spofing.

    Jenny from Iowa is probably Ivan iz Minska.

    nk (1d9030) — 3/21/2020 @ 8:49 pm

    Well that’s disconcerting that that’s possible. I have heard the term but never looked into it.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  313. Not something I know anything about, but surgical masks *do* have some benefit. If supply were no longer an issue, people could presumably wear more than one at a time with greater benefit.

    Also, the claim is that surgical masks prevent infected people from spreading the germ. If so, when everyone is masked, that means nobody can spread it (in principle). You would get the benefit of stopping germs coming *from* infected people AND the benefit of stopping germs going *to* uninfected people.

    At some point, it must break even with more intrusive (and costly) measures.

    This is a great comment.

    Paleolibertarian Ilana Mercer wrote an article about this and, while I held my tongue, I was tempted to pooh-pooh it since I was going with the CDC recommendation about not wearing masks, at least to protect yourself.

    However, it might protect you a bit and desperate times call for desperate measures. Your point about people using it, perhaps even being directed to use it, to contain the spread makes sense. Also your point about economy.

    The government should take a leading role in directing industry and setting production targets.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  314. Scam callers have been doing it with telephone numbers, too, for quite a while.

    nk (1d9030)

  315. Not something I know anything about, but surgical masks *do* have some benefit. If supply were no longer an issue, people could presumably wear more than one at a time with greater benefit.

    Also, the claim is that surgical masks prevent infected people from spreading the germ. If so, when everyone is masked, that means nobody can spread it (in principle). You would get the benefit of stopping germs coming *from* infected people AND the benefit of stopping germs going *to* uninfected people.

    At some point, it must break even with more intrusive (and costly) measures.

    Dave (1bb933) — 3/21/2020 @ 8:49 pm

    One problem is that if misused these masks actually spread disease.

    I’d also say if possible, some kind of test at home for various illnesses would be a great advancement.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  316. 314. Masks used at hospitals and clinics get thrown out with other biohazardous waste. If you chuck it in the trash at home or even out in public, it’s just another disease vector. The virus can last on those masks for hours.

    Gryph (08c844)

  317. @308 My point is that your job is always at risk. The coronavirus was the unforeseen event, but it just as easily could have been a tornado or some other disaster or an event like 2008 that cause people to spend less money on prepared food. If you need more job security, and right now you seem very uncomfortable with the level of job insecurity you are (not) enjoying, you will need to do something more specialized.

    Nic (896fdf)

  318. There is an Austin company that will have a home coronavirus test next week, Dustin. Everlywell $135.

    DRJ (15874d)

  319. The government should take a leading role in directing industry and setting production targets.

    Well.

    The economic incentives to market such a product would be enormous.

    If it’s feasible, but not affordable enough to allow essentially everyone to use, then the government might subsidize it, and in doing so prevent even greater economic costs.

    A reusable system that cost $100 out of pocket but freed you to work and move about freely with a high level of protection would still be a good investment for just about anyone.

    A disposable system that cost $5 per day would be something I think just about anyone would pay too (and you could save by avoiding unnecessary trips and staying home as much as possible).

    Dave (1bb933)

  320. The economic incentives to market such a product would be enormous.

    They should be allowed to profit; however, if they need funding for rapid expansion of production, the government should step in, absolutely.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  321. 316. My job is always at risk. I’d rather not have it nuked by a bunch of bureaucrats out of some sense of blind panic that may or may not even be justified. I was just fine with my level of job security until my boss had to start axing hours due to this stupid CoViD-19 thing. I’ll have a job as long as he can stay open, and he’s already assured us he’s not going to close up shop unless he is forced to. That cuts to the heart of my worry. I don’t trust the government with my freedom, nor have I had any reason to.

    Gryph (08c844)

  322. I was just fine with my level of job security until my boss had to start axing hours due to this stupid CoViD-19 thing

    Well, I’m sorry you were so personally inconvenienced by this virus, but so were we, man. So were we.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  323. That’s awesome, DRJ.

    Dave, if the masks were good enough to bring even ten percent of the economy back, they would be worth a staggering investment.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  324. 321. GFY, Jenny.

    Gryph (08c844)

  325. Masks used at hospitals and clinics get thrown out with other biohazardous waste. If you chuck it in the trash at home or even out in public, it’s just another disease vector. The virus can last on those masks for hours.

    Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful, for a change?

    Dave (1bb933)

  326. GFY, Jenny.

    Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 9:13 pm

    To paraphrase Steve Martin’s character in L.A. Story—if I was Jenny from Iowa, forced to stay at home during this pandemic, that’s all I—

    Oh, never mind.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  327. Masks used at hospitals and clinics get thrown out with other biohazardous waste. If you chuck it in the trash at home or even out in public, it’s just another disease vector. The virus can last on those masks for hours.

    There isn’t much evidence of surface transmission of this virus. It appears to be airborne and highly transmissible that way. It also lasts longer on slick surfaces, like plastic and metal, than porous ones.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  328. 326. There isn’t much evidence that we need to bring our economy to a grinding halt, either. But you know, if it saves just one life… 😛

    Gryph (08c844)

  329. 324. Okay. How’s this for righteous and hopeful?

    I’m not panicking, and you shouldn’t either.

    Gryph (08c844)

  330. You need to learn what “exponential” means, Gryph; really internalize it. It isn’t just one.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  331. Masks used at hospitals and clinics get thrown out with other biohazardous waste. If you chuck it in the trash at home or even out in public, it’s just another disease vector. The virus can last on those masks for hours.

    Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful, for a change?

    Dave (1bb933) — 3/21/2020 @ 9:17 pm

    It’s a problem. I think there’s probably an easy solution, like having little Lysol brand mask filter bins that kill contamination. Maybe a battery operated spray that mists into trash cans every time it detects movement. I’m pretty dumb but I imagine smart people can come up with a way for everybody to get face masks and also keep the filters from spreading disease.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  332. 329. We haven’t been able to test a large enough population to know what the R0 is in our border. And that is what I mean by blind panic. What information we have is incomplete and inadequate, but that’s the information we’re using to set policy. And that is why I am not okay with forcing businesses to close en masse.

    Gryph (08c844)

  333. @331 The masks literally only need to be put in a separate bin (or bucket) with a bag in it, then, when full, tied up and left for a day or two. That will eliminate almost all the live viral particles.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  334. 333. For someone who thinks this panic justifies shutting down businesses en masse to enforce social distancing, you sure do seem rather cavalier about handling what hospitals consider to be biohazardous waste.

    Gryph (08c844)

  335. For someone who thinks this panic justifies shutting down businesses en masse to enforce social distancing, you sure do seem rather cavalier about handling what hospitals consider to be biohazardous waste.

    Biohazardous waste needs to get in your body. The virus dies if it can’t replicate, and dies faster on porous materials. It’s an exigent solution for an emergency, and the technique is easily demonstrated.

    It isn’t in principle different than a sharps container in a public bathroom. You put it in then take it away when it’s full. Sure, you can burn it too, if you want, but that’s not necessary for this one pathogen: time will do the dog.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  336. PLUS if your mask, which you are wearing to spread coronaviruses to others, has your coronavirus on them, the waste from it doesn’t matter to you. You just have to keep it away from others. Obviously you wash your hands frequently after taking it off, before putting it on, and whatnot.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  337. 335. Viruses don’t die. The undergo lysis. There is a difference. Bacteria will die without something to feed on, but viruses straddle a strange boundary between living and non-.

    I’m not saying it’s necessarily even a bad idea. I am mocking the cavalier manner in which you treat this particular matter, when it’s okay to set greater public policy with so much uncertainty still remaining about the very virus you’d chuck in a trash can at home.

    Gryph (08c844)

  338. 336. It just could matter to your family members who live with you. Or the trash men that have to handle your garbage. But who cares, right? Not your monkeys, not your circus, amiright?

    Gryph (08c844)

  339. Looking at the country stats and Johns Hopkins’ map, it almost seems like the virus spreads more in warmer countries than colder ones.

    DRJ (15874d)

  340. If you have coronaviru, they have coronavirus.

    Obviously you out a sign over it saying it’s biohazardous medical waste.

    The point is you have to sequester it for now, not disinfect it every 5 minutes.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  341. I forgot who linked that Covid19Stats website but it is fascinating. Thank you to whoever that was.

    DRJ (15874d)

  342. Well, I think it’s a bioweapon, DRJ.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  343. 340. Sounds like you got all the solutions right in your own home, Jenny! Just start wearing a mask and make your own family self-isolate. We won’t even have to get the government involved, by-Jove!

    Gryph (08c844)

  344. Random thoughts. First, I don’t think Jenny and MAOA are the same person. Second, I bet America has a lot of babies born in 9 months.

    DRJ (15874d)

  345. 344. I know they’re not. It’s just my way of making it clear I’m mocking him without having to come right out and say so every time.

    Gryph (08c844)

  346. I’m in NY, DRJ, where the man Patterico posted about tonight lives. It isn’t that warm here. But, at 3.6% of the nation’s population, we have 30% of its confirmed cases.

    I agree with you about the babies.

    ImmknMake America Ordered Again (23f793)

  347. I get it, Gryph.

    ImmknMake America Ordered Again (23f793)

  348. *NYC

    ImmknMake America Ordered Again (23f793)

  349. 336. It just could matter to your family members who live with you. Or the trash men that have to handle your garbage. But who cares, right? Not your monkeys, not your circus, amiright?

    Gryph (08c844) — 3/21/2020 @ 9:38 pm

    Stop feeding the troll for God’s sake.

    Trash collectors have a bad deal. Physical work, lots of moving, probably want to breath freely, definitely exposed to all kinds of crap. But, similar to some of your other concerns, they have to deal with biological stuff anyway. They are dealing with this problem regardless of lock down… flattening the curve helps them a lot but they are surely all going to handle stuff containing this virus.

    Cops wearing masks while talking to people also will hurt their work a lot, but I think that’s something to consider strongly.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  350. You have to tie it up and leave it for a couple days. I mentioned that part.

    ImmknMake America Ordered Again (23f793)

  351. 346. 347. The pattern of spread in population centers is virtually indistinguishable from the spread of seasonal flu. (I said pattern, not number of cases, so don’t get your panties in a bind) I can’t speak to what the numbers exactly look like in New York, but if you took all the seasonal flu cases plus the confirmed CoViD-19 cases in my home state, the increase would barely be a blip on the radar if we didn’t already know a novel virus was causing it.

    Gryph (08c844)

  352. 350. Yeah. I know you did, Jenny. Horray! No more forced business closure and social distancing! N95 masks for EVERYONE!

    Gryph (08c844)

  353. Patterico’s 44 year old for friend is on a ventilator in critical condition in Manhattan tonight. It isn’t like the flu.

    Of course it spreads in similar patterns (but faster than most).

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  354. Comrade Gryph, I too deplore the Western Christian Liberal twaddle that human beings have any value beyond their capacity for productive labor. It is deviationist, counter-revolutionary, revisionist, and promotes parasitism and hooliganism. But the fact is that in the decadent capitalist West, the bosses are always holding your job hostage, even more so than the government, always ready to cast you aside if it will increase their profit by a single dollar. It is the plight of the worker, in the ravenous maws of the insatiable plutocracy.

    nk (1d9030)

  355. Looking at the country stats and Johns Hopkins’ map, it almost seems like the virus spreads more in warmer countries than colder ones.

    I read something today that bats reach extremely high body temperatures when they fly, and that bat viruses therefore tend to evolve a greater resistance to high temperatures.

    Dave (1bb933)

  356. 354. Now who’s trolling? LOLOLOL

    Gryph (08c844)

  357. 353. How many flu victims end up on ventilators in critical condition every flu season, Jenny? Appealing to my sympathy for someone I don’t know isn’t a good way to get me to accept blind panic as a basis for public policy.

    Gryph (08c844)

  358. It wasn’t about your sympathy. I don’t think you have a lot for others. I was appealing to your reason and sense of self preservation.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  359. https://youtu.be/vWGquxvqI_Y?t=513

    I think this is a pretty decent social distancing invention

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  360. I wasn’t. Prolixing, maybe. The airlines are threatening, that is the word, “threatening”, layoffs if they don’t get a bailout, and they’re giving Trump until September 1 to do it. https://simpleflying.com/us-airlines-delay-layoffs-bailout/

    nk (1d9030)

  361. 358. If it’s my time, it’s my time. I would say it’s my sense of self-preservation that directly leads to my distrust of government bureaucracy. Patterico has my sympathies as far as he’s been personally touched by this tragedy. But I will not accept it as a pretext to erode my rights.

    Gryph (08c844)

  362. If the trend of the last few days continues, it looks like within the next 24 hours we are going to pass Italy and take the global lead in new cases per day.

    🙁

    Within the last 24-hour period reported by the European CDC, Italy added 5986 new cases, and we added 5374.

    Dave (1bb933)

  363. Well, yeah.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  364. 362. So does this mean we didn’t do enough? Are we headed down the right path with the existing CDC recommendations? Fascinating…

    Gryph (08c844)

  365. There’s no way we can avoid facing most people getting infected. We’re facing a viral catostrophe. Some of us on this site will probably die of COVID-19.

    What we can and most do is delay the spread as long as possible until we have effective treatment protocols in place, especially anti-viral drugs, to treat people at an early stage of the disease to spare their lives and health.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  366. Trump can certainly entertain; but he cannot lead, will not follow- so he best get out of the way.

    The United States government knows how to manage this kind of crisis of scale- multiple problems at once; cascading system failures; limited resource management and a critical time constraint. It has successfully demonstrated this capacity to the world before. And it doesn’t take “war” chatter.

    Revisit Apollo 13.

    ‘[It required] the skill and dedication of hundreds of members of the often-celebrated “manned space flight team” [ to save Apollo 13], however… the accident served to remind NASA and the public that human flight in space, no matter how commonplace it seemed to the casual observer, was not a routine operation.’ – source, NASA

    Pandemics aren’t routine, either. But smart people know how to manage one– if you let them. The nation needs to apply this kind of project management, one of the best ‘spinoffs’ from Apollo Program, marshal the teamwork and the necessary resources for solutions.

    Mike Pence, Jarred Kushner and Donald Trump do not project nor demonstrate they possess this sort of skill set.

    The U.S. needs a singular voice; an authoritative organization to focus on, develop and apply solutions; a ‘Mission Control’ so to speak. So far, it has it has failed in that venue with competing organizations vying for influence, control and presidential attention– and ‘failure is not an option.’

    Gather the people, put them in charge, get out of their way, and let them do what they do best; ‘work the problem’ — and they will save lives; and perhaps an economy, too.

    IMO.

    “I want you guys figuring our minimum power needed in the LEM to sustain life.” – Gene Kranz, Flight Director, Apollo 13, April 13, 1970

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  367. Patterico at 289

    If the “hashtag” is a 6-digit hexadecimal number, as it appears to be, then for each unique hashtag there are 256 unique IPv4 addresses which will map to it. You are mapping 4,294,967,296 unique IPv4 numbers to 16,777,216 unique 6-digit hex numbers.

    JoeH (f94276)

  368. If the “hashtag” is a 6-digit hexadecimal number, as it appears to be, then for each unique hashtag there are 256 unique IPv4 addresses which will map to it. You are mapping 4,294,967,296 unique IPv4 numbers to 16,777,216 unique 6-digit hex numbers.

    Good point, although IIRC only a fraction of the 32-bit range is valid for internet (as opposed to intranet) addresses.

    Dave (1bb933)

  369. So does this mean we didn’t do enough? Are we headed down the right path with the existing CDC recommendations? Fascinating…

    The various restrictions have not been in place for long, and some of the increase is due to increased testing.

    Also, the disease takes ~5 days to manifest, so the people who show symptoms and test positive today were likely exposed at the start of last week.

    There is no doubt that in the absence of counter-measures the number of new cases would be higher now AND every day for the foreseeable future. One new case prevented today is a 1000 extra new cases per day prevented in a couple weeks from now.

    Dave (1bb933)

  370. I don’t think cell phones use dedicated IP addresses so people using the same phone carrier might have the same IP address on occasion.

    Also VPN endpoints, public WiFi, hotels … IP is only indicative. But it is kind of a jackpot when it happens.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  371. Yes, there are 3 blocks which are non-routable:

    10.0.0.0/8 (2^24 or 16,777,216 addresses)
    172.16.0.0/12 (2^20 or 1,048,576 addresses)
    192.168.0.0/16 (2^16 or 65,536 addresses)

    That reduces the ratio from 256 to 1 to slightly less than 255 to 1.

    JoeH (f94276)

  372. One thing I have realized in this, especially after reading the new post about Mr Lat.

    Trump, and the election are so FAR from my mind right now that it isn’t even funny. When I resurface to other concerns, maybe I will have an opinion again regarding Mr Trump and the election. But right now, it’s all local, and my world has contracted to my home and the few places I must venture to. A month ago I snagged 5 N95 masks, kind of on a whim. Who knew? I feel silly wearing them at the grocery, but I do, as I go there once or twice a week.

    This whole thing sucks, my investments suck (although I am still 70% in cash). Bought some Zoom stock. It’s really funny though how utterly insignificant the opinion of the President of the United States is in all this. It’s out of his hands now.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  373. And I never thought I’d ever say this, but I wish that Bill Clinton was President right now. Faults? Sure, but incompetence was never one of them.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  374. In the David Lat thread, Kevin wrote:

    But I see no reason that the next generations have to be impoverished like my parent’s generation was.

    I think this is too pessimistic. The severity of the Great Depression of the 1930’s was the result of factors that I don’t think will arise today. The global economy is much more resilient, as the relatively swift turnaround after 2008 showed. Once the germ is gone, I think recovery will be rapid, but the difficult thing will be sparing the economically vulnerable working people from destitution until the recovery takes off.

    We both think the scattershot, short-term cash dump is a poor substitute for rational policy. I think there will need to be generous unemployment benefits if the economy is disrupted for months. I think there will also need to be some kind of bail-out for businesses to keep the lights on. It will not be cheap, but the price of inaction will be higher.

    It’s tragic that we have leadership who lack any competence, vision or even a basic appreciation of what is happening. Perhaps Mnuchin will rise to the occasion and formulate a creative and coherent damage-control policy. I’d say he’s about our only hope in the present administration. Bringing back Gary Cohn would be a smart move, but he fails the “yes-man” test.

    Dave (1bb933)

  375. There is no doubt that in the absence of counter-measures the number of new cases would be higher now AND every day for the foreseeable future.

    Yes. The 200K – 1.7Million number was for doing nothing and treating it as the flu. We did NOT do that. Old folk are holed up — check out NextDoor. Some younger folk are taking precautions. I sure hope that someone is making those medical supplies that they say they need, hard to say. I worry about bureaucratic incompetence and blame passing.

    But the curve has stretched out. Elective procedures have been suspended for several weeks now, freeing beds. ICU patients have gotten better, been moved, or been evaluated for possible triage. Those beds are more open now. Everyone knows what is coming.

    It will be better than if we had done nothing. I hope the curve has been flattened enough, because I suspect there is little time left to flatten it.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  376. Dave, I suspect we see this somewhat the same. Not all one thing or the other. I admit that growing up with parents who had both been pre-teens in 1929, and whose life-long habits were set growing up with very little, has affected me more than I knew. My mom used to cut sponges in half and use each half separately. My dad was terrified of a mortgage because he’d seen the bank take his dad’s house. He joined the army in 1938 because it was a steady job, and he knew that he’d get a better gig then than later with the war that was coming (and he did).

    It’s not an experience I want to see happen again. I hope you are right about the resilience. I think so too, but “Depression or Recession” isn’t as cheerful a topic as some.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  377. And I find that Pat’s post about his friend Mr Lat has gotten me a bit more emotional than usual. I think I’ll sign off for the night.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  378. Dave, I suspect we see this somewhat the same. Not all one thing or the other. I admit that growing up with parents who had both been pre-teens in 1929, and whose life-long habits were set growing up with very little, has affected me more than I knew. My mom used to cut sponges in half and use each half separately. My dad was terrified of a mortgage because he’d seen the bank take his dad’s house. He joined the army in 1938 because it was a steady job, and he knew that he’d get a better gig then than later with the war that was coming (and he did).

    Yeah, it was my grandparents, not my mom (born in 1940), but they lived the rest of their lives in fear thanks to the Great Depression, even after they had a relatively comfortable and secure nest-egg thanks to a lifetime of hard-work and thrift. As a young boy, this was hard for me to understand, but it’s clear as day now.

    Dave (1bb933)

  379. BTW, if the feds want to pump money, I think the absolutely easiest way to get it where it is needed is to match every state unemployment check. Not perfect, but doubling each check would help a lot.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  380. For their viewers’ safety, some news networks are reportedly considering putting a stop to live broadcasts of Trump’s coronavirus briefings.

    “There is a very real possibility that in broadcasting these press conferences live or in quickly publishing and blasting out his words in mobile alerts, we are actively misinforming our audience,” Alex Koppelman, managing editor of CNN Business, wrote in an email for the network’s Reliable Sources newsletter.

    Seems like they would be doing him, and everyone else, a huge favor.

    Dave (1bb933)

  381. @380 I used to have a dog that was very smart. He had a neat little trick where if you told him something he didn’t want to hear he’d just turn his head and look somewhere else. If he got caught doing something he knew he shouldn’t he’d just turn his back to you and pretend it didn’t happen. If you told him something he wanted to hear he’d jump right too it. It was funny and I really miss that dog.

    For a while Gryph reminded me of that. We’ve all been giving him the benefit of the doubt. But he’s actively lying now and avoiding contradictory information.

    frosty (f27e97)

  382. 8. nk (1d9030) — 3/21/2020 @ 10:52 am

    if there is demand with money behind it, there will be supply

    This is true, although it is contrary to the theory of what causes inflation.

    There is no fixed definition of a depression or a recession. The only word that used to be used until 1929-1932 was “depression” That was so bad it got called the “Great Depression” When the Fed tightened money in 1937, the economy got worse and FDR and his advisers didn’t want to call it a depression so the word “recession” was coined. All the economic downturns in the United States since then have been called recessions and we’ve even tended to leave oot the word “Great” for the depression of the 1930s.
    even when there is no demand, as long as there is money the merchants will create demand

    like iphones, starbucks, and pet rocks

    Sammy Finkelman (3efdba)

  383. “It is notable that the GREAT Depression happened only when the central government was provide tools that allowed the entire economy to be d????? with.”

    The tools were provided in 1913. But they forgot what they needed to do. A depresssion/recession was headed off in 1907 with far fewer tools.

    Sammy Finkelman (3efdba)

  384. Ragspierre (d9bec9) — 3/21/2020 @ 11:23 am

    The stock market had recovered only months after the crash. So, why was this the “Great Depression” when it started out as just another garden variety burp in the business cycle? And why hadn’t there been a previous GREAT? What existed then that had not existed before?

    The value of stock had become ready cash. Money was borrowed on it. People ca afford to lose money as long as it’s coming out of savings.

    There was a reduction in the money supply caused by bankruptcies, and by attempting to maintain the gold standard.

    Sammy Finkelman (3efdba)

  385. The tools were provided in 1913. But they forgot what they needed to do. A depresssion/recession was headed off in 1907 with far fewer tools.

    There is a wonderful story of a guy…I think the head of the NY Fed at the time…who was faced with your normal US depression. He very carefully and wisely used the new tools available to him, and the worst consequences of our normal cyclic depression were avoided. I wish I could remember his name.

    Anyhoo, ‘carefully and wisely’ were not part of the repertoire of the guys who succeeded him. They flailed around like FDR did, foolishly trying one thing and another. Finally, they drastically and inexplicably contracted the money supply.

    Milton Friedman explains this in his usual brilliant AND very readable fashion.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  386. There was a reduction in the money supply caused by bankruptcies, and by attempting to maintain the gold standard.

    I’m trying to think how bankruptcy reduces the money supply. Generally speaking, bankruptcy is a highly rational, rule-driven means to preserve the assets of a business or person who has become insolvent. I know, having represented both sides in bankruptcy proceedings.

    As Sammy noted, the real contraction in the money supply was by the central planners. It was the direct cause (according to Friedman) why FDR would come to speak in a SOTU address about the percentage of working men unemployed and the percentage of factories idled. Those numbers were the mirror images of the contraction in the money supply. Those were the depth of the “Great” depression.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  387. These are very troubling times and I hope we can give each other room to talk about what’s happening and how we feel about it.

    DRJ (15874d)

  388. In my community, this is undoubtedly pushing us apart physically. We are staying home, and I have never seen anything like it in 60+ years. But it is also pulling us closer to one another in ways I haven’t seen, even after 9/11. We wave at each other in our vehicles. We stand 6 feet apart in stores while smiling, encouraging, and reassuring each other that we are all in this together. We text positive thoughts to neighbors and friends daily.

    From what I’ve read and heard, this is true in other parts of Texas and maybe across America and the world. The singing Italians certainly seem that way. Maybe it can happen here, too.

    DRJ (15874d)

  389. There are 76M people 18-34 in the US. The South Koreans are believed to have gotten this under control and had widespread testing. The mortality rate in SK is 1.2%. If you agree with the 1/3 estimated infected number with no social distancing and think maybe 1% mortality might be a better number than SK’s. You get roughly 200k deaths in the 18-34 age group over the next couple of months. The estimated number of US deaths in all of WWII is roughly 400k.

    frosty (f27e97)

  390. Based on recent numbers from NY the mortality rate there is 0.75% which would change the 18-34 estimate to ~170k, in the next couple of months. It also sounds like NY is aggressively testing.

    Just in case anyone is thinking that isolating the old wouldn’t have an impact on restaurant traffic.

    frosty (f27e97)

  391. I agree. I think testing and avoiding contact are critical and hope for much more at every level. I think most people see the need for those things, too.

    DRJ (15874d)

  392. I am sad to see what is happening in Italy and Spain, where the infections and deaths are so high (especially compared to their populations). Any ideas why Germany’s death rate is comparatively low and France seems to be avoiding the worst?

    DRJ (15874d)

  393. Italy is more aggressive in categorizing comorbid fatalities as always being caused by coronavirus.

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  394. There was an article today that an Italian doctor fears hospitals are spreading the virus. Maybe most sick people are going to or being taken to the hospitals in Italy? It could also be that the staff and support people are carriers who are soldiering on because they are needed.

    For the past month in my town, the hospital refused to let sick people in. Sounds funny, doesn’t? Instead, the public was given a phone number to call hospital nurses who triaged the calls and told patients where to go. We are still doing that. I think it may be good.

    DRJ (15874d)

  395. For the past month in my town, the hospital refused to let sick people in. Sounds funny, doesn’t? Instead, the public was given a phone number to call hospital nurses who triaged the calls and told patients where to go. We are still doing that. I think it may be good.

    “Sentimentality is folly.”
    —Adolf Hitler’s little known older brother, the black sheep of the family

    Make America Ordered Again (23f793)

  396. https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=milton+friedman+great+depression&view=detail&mid=A743782D98B26A372749A743782D98B26A372749&FORM=VIRE

    Some good stuff to watch or listen to on a shut-in Sunday. Busting myths is a fine activity.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  397. We don’t know much about this disease. We can speculate and we are learning more every day. We can make reasonable hypotheses, but we don’t know. That, to me, is why “overreacting” is the best plan. We have to take this event very seriously because it presents as a worldwide threat and there are too many things we don’t know.

    DRJ (15874d)

  398. For example, here is an interesting article from Harvard’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics on “Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?” The author provides information and evidence on both sides of the question. While he concludes the answer is probably not, he is candid that no one knows.

    DRJ (15874d)

  399. Patterico at 289

    If the “hashtag” is a 6-digit hexadecimal number, as it appears to be, then for each unique hashtag there are 256 unique IPv4 addresses which will map to it. You are mapping 4,294,967,296 unique IPv4 numbers to 16,777,216 unique 6-digit hex numbers.

    Perhaps, but the IP addresses were indeed the same. Doesn’t mean they are the same people, but the IP addresses are indeed the same.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  400. This article suggests France significantly limited testing until a few days ago, which could explain the lower number of confirmed cases.

    DRJ (15874d)

  401. Any ideas why Germany’s death rate is comparatively low and France seems to be avoiding the worst?

    We have a student who moved to France in the middle of February.

    She said she and a friend walked to the store the other day – and were stopped by the police.

    To go out, for instance to the store, you need to fill out some kind of form (yourself), which from what I understand is sort of like a “hall pass”. There are only a few allowed destinations and the form only allows one person to travel (which is why she and her friend were stopped). I think they have some of the most stringent social distancing measures there.

    She said the police were understanding and explained what she was supposed to do.

    Dave (1bb933)

  402. Any ideas why Germany’s death rate is comparatively low and France seems to be avoiding the worst?

    Not sure about France, but the difference between Germany and Italy is legendary. Things in Germany work. Things in Italy, not so much.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  403. Thanks, Dave. That might explain things. I was told by a family member that Spain also has a rule that people can only go out one at a time. I think it may be a new rule in Spain. Maybe they saw it worked in France?

    DRJ (15874d)

  404. There was an article today that an Italian doctor fears hospitals are spreading the virus.

    One of the strangest things I discovered about Medicare is that it largely forbade the use of telemedicine (exceptions for remote areas). You HAD to go into a physical office for them to cover the cost.

    A week ago Medicare changed its rules to cover telemedicine to allow screening of symptomatic patients remotely, and to allow non-symptomatic seniors to get healthcare without having to run the risk of contact and infection. They say it’s only temporary, but a lot of temporary adjustments are going to remain when this is done.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  405. As I write this, the Johns Hopkin’s data show Germany has almost 24,000 cases but only 92 deaths. That is striking. Are they actually saving thousands of lives through German-engineered healthcare, or is their strain less deadly, or are they attributing deaths to other health problems, or what?

    DRJ (15874d)

  406. BTW, does anyone know if simple mechanical ventilators are being produced? It’s the kind of thing you could make in a hurry — no computer control, but maybe a pump and dials for rate and volume. Probably all they had 30 years ago, and they’d be better than “sorry!”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  407. @406: It might also be that Germans, as a group, are more likely to follow rules than Italians. So their behavior when asked to avoid contacts may have been better overall.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  408. Consider driving in the two countries, for example.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  409. The Hill reports Trump has given GM, Ford and Tesla permission to produce ventilators. Good.

    DRJ (15874d)

  410. My experience with German people, culture, products and even roads is the same. The numbers are still striking.

    DRJ (15874d)

  411. “Number of cases” really means “number of identified cases” and is strongly influenced by the amount of testing since so many carriers are asymptomatic.

    According to one of the graphs on this page (scroll down), as of March 15, Germany had performed 2000 tests per million people. France, 559. And the US (as of four days later, March 19) only 314.

    Dave (1bb933)

  412. Why do GM, Ford and Tesla need “permission” from Trump to produce ventilators?

    Difficult as this may be to believe, it sounds like Trump inflating his own role.

    Dave (1bb933)

  413. Maybe the Germans are way ahead in identifying their cases. Good for them. I wish we would do that. I think we are leaning that way, but I fear we don’t have the ability.

    DRJ (15874d)

  414. I assume there are permitting issues regarding certain medical equipment. They may not need permission to build the equipment but it can’t be used without someone (FDA?) approving it. Trump can probably do that with his emergency powers.

    DRJ (15874d)

  415. I heard a good tip the other day. It said to put strong-smelling perfume, cologne, lotion or oils on our hands so we will notice every time we touch or put our hands near our faces. It will remind us not to do that.

    DRJ (15874d)

  416. “ Doesn’t mean they are the same people, but the IP addresses are indeed the same.”

    – Patterico

    Same Russian troll farm.

    Leviticus (140f0f)

  417. Also, Dave, thanks for the link.

    DRJ (15874d)

  418. Difficult as this may be to believe, it sounds like Trump inflating his own role.

    As I’ve said elsewhere, Trump is pretty much superfluous now. Later, when/if this is all over, his role can be evaluated. Right now, pretty much no one other than Jenny is listening.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  419. Jenny and MAOA aren’t the same person. They have different writing styles and different opinions. The writing style is the same for each individual, but not together.

    There have been others on here who have had the same “tag” but are in different areas. It’s also why our tag changes over time without using different devices.

    Yes it can be used to show sockpuppets. No it isn’t perfect. If I was going to assume someone was using multiple names, it wouldn’t be those two.

    For those concerned about destroying future generations with the debt we are incurring for comfort now, how are these draconian measures any different?

    NJRob (4d595c)

  420. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/22/2020 @ 10:49 am

    Lol. Yeah, whenever Trump speaks, I find myself echoing nk, who said: “shut up, shut up, shut up!”

    felipe (023cc9)

  421. Same Russian troll farm.

    Nah. The Russian troll farm would be smarter than that, and would be using VPN to different places.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  422. P.S. Italy’s death numbers are seriously skewed. They are going back on cases of people who died of other diseases, incidents, etc and testing them for the virus. If they test positive, they are automatically added to the death rate for the virus. That makes no sense.

    NJRob (4d595c)

  423. how are these draconian measures any different?

    They are faster. But it’s not just the added debt, it’s the dislocations and the fact that about half the population doesn’t have a whole paycheck in the bank.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  424. Leviticus,

    Something similar happened a few years ago when I was guest posting, back when sockpuppeting was very popular. I was convinced the duplicate IP proved that was a sockpuppet. I researched it then and learned that since cell phone companies have specific IP addresses assigned to them and since they rotate them between users as needed, there will be many people using the same IP everyday. (Ditto for people who post from the same library, Starbucks, etc., although that seems unlikely at this website.) Over time, it is possible that different people may end up having the same IP.

    DRJ (15874d)

  425. If Trump tells the nation that he has a good feeling about this drug, a lot of sick people will remember it and demand that drug.

    DRJ (15874d)

  426. Jenny and MAOA aren’t the same person. They have different writing styles and different opinions. The writing style is the same for each individual, but not together.

    I’ve commented here for a long time and have never seen a man and woman start commenting about taking a shower together without missing a beat. They do ‘disagree’ but it comes across as obviously fake. One of the personas complains a lot about being treated unfairly, and the other seems to be venting.

    Sockpuppeting trolls is pretty common among Trump fans. I wonder why?

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  427. Sorry to obsess on this but returning to Italy …

    What I hear people saying is that Italy has a high infection and death rate because it is classifying every illness as coronavirus. But Italy is actually testing people at a very high rate. It seems to me that Italy has a scientific basis for knowing who has coronavirus and classifying them accordingly, and we have a reason to trust those numbers.

    DRJ (15874d)

  428. Dustin (b18b7a) — 3/22/2020 @ 11:11 am

    This is why I pay attention to Dustin’s comments.

    felipe (023cc9)

  429. I’ve commented here for a long time and have never seen a man and woman start commenting about taking a shower together without missing a beat.

    You should learn how to flirt.

    Make America Ordered Again (adac13)

  430. They do ‘disagree’ but it comes across as obviously fake.

    I know for a fact you’re wrong and therefore I know for a fact you’re delusional and way out to lunch with your analysis. However, it’s hilarious to me, so carry on. I know you can’t help yourself.

    Make America Ordered Again (adac13)

  431. What I hear people saying is that Italy has a high infection and death rate because it is classifying every illness as coronavirus. But Italy is actually testing people at a very high rate.

    I didn’t say that. I said they’re classifying all deaths that include comorbidities, including comorbid viral infections, as COVID-19. I also think they have a worse problem and it relates, as I’ve said here before, to their high population of Chinese workers in their fashion industry in northern Italy.

    However, when you talk about testing, another reason is, of course, that if they test more, then diagnose more. I personally think SARS-CoV-2 is rampant in the United States. I think it has been pretty widespread here even before it was recognized in Wuhan by the Chinese. I think some people testing positive now had it beginning months ago. By “it” I mean it and its related strains. Some are more virulent than others.

    Make America Ordered Again (adac13)

  432. Make America Ordered Again (adac13) — 3/22/2020 @ 3:19 pm

    Hey, be cool, man. Dustin rightfully enjoys the respect of friends and foes alike. Disparaging him is not going to earn you any cred here.

    felipe (023cc9)

  433. Hey, be cool, man. Dustin rightfully enjoys the respect of friends and foes alike. Disparaging him is not going to earn you any cred here.

    I have nothing resembling respect for him and won’t say my full thoughts on him and his intellect. I also won’t comment on those who hold him and his thinking in high esteem.

    Make America Ordered Again (adac13)

  434. However, I’ll try reasoning with you, felipe, for a moment, out of an abundance of optimism.

    Either I am lying, and am in fact also Jenny and/or other people here.

    Or I would know for a fact that I am not Jenny and therefore that Dustin is wrong in an amusing way.

    Would you grant that much? If so, would you then explain why you criticized this comment:

    I know for a fact you’re wrong and therefore I know for a fact you’re delusional and way out to lunch with your analysis. However, it’s hilarious to me, so carry on. I know you can’t help yourself.

    ?

    Make America Ordered Again (adac13)

  435. Make America Ordered Again (adac13) — 3/22/2020 @ 3:34 pm

    By now you should understand that it matters not, on this site anyway, whether anyone agrees with you or not. Respect, at least in my mind, given by others is a reward not for “rightness,” but for honesty. Dustin and I have disagreed in the past, but when he threatened to leave us, I begged for him to stay because of his demonstration of honesty, attempting to argue, always, in good faith, not out of the admiration of those who agreed with him.

    Likewise, I care not about the allegations of others about you, but whether you argue in good faith, or not. To make the claim “I know” about someone, requires a prior history of honesty that you have not (yet) demonstrated. This is at the core of my criticism.

    But to answer your question; yes, I will allow you that much. Your either/or proposition, however, is not central to my ctiticism.

    felipe (023cc9)

  436. At this website, you are the only person who really knows who you are. We judge each other by what we say and how we treat each other, not because we “know” each other in person. It doesn’t really matter who you are, who Jenny is, or what your history here is, but we are allowed to wonder.

    DRJ (15874d)

  437. For the record, I am not MAOA, but:

    (1) I could be lying, so this protestation means little.

    (2) The alleged difference in our alleged writing styles is irrelevant to the question of identity because it doesn’t take much effort to change one’s writing styles.

    (3) How I and MAOA interact or disagree with each other is irrelevant because it could be a single person play-acting.

    (4) Only I and MAOA (or I alone) know with certainty whether or not we are the same person.

    (5) We could also be two different people who know each other who are acting in concert.

    (6) If in fact we are two different people acting independently (we are), then it demonstrates that both Dustin and Colonel Klink, by evincing such certainty otherwise, have extraordinarily POOR judgment. The IP issue is a rather simple scientific issue to understand, yet they’ve botched it; to trust their analysis of the COVID-19 data would be foolhardy.

    (7) Note that Patterico, with his usual circumspection, has refrained from drawing any definitive conclusion on the identity issue.

    (8) As an aside, I can state with certainty that Patterico does or did (much more likely did) know my real name, but would be wholly incapable of stating what it is. He has seen it but it would not at all register with him today.

    (9) The identity issue wholly irrelevant to the truth of what either I or MAOA have said, as is the clichéd Russian bot canard. The accusations flow from nothing but mere disagreement with us, and are attempts to distract from their inability to offer anything other than the content-free responses they have offered.

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde)

  438. Jenny, you are a troll either way. Read your own comments. There’s no other interpretation of them possible. I used to bend over backwards to give benefit of the doubt… even apologizing to a commenter here for saying he was a sockpuppet when he denied it. I was correct (and I think that’s one reason the hashes are here).

    I go with my gut and frankly it damages the reputation of a troll very little to be conflated with … I’d say three other trolls if I had to guess.

    I will admit that I often ask trolls what other names they’ve commented under specifically because their overly involved defenses are a tell… and it stops them from trolling for maybe two days.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  439. Insofar as gaslighting is the primary mission of Russian trolls (Russian-paid trolls, I should say), and insofar as gaslighting is both Jenny and MAOA’s primary objective (See Jenny @ 439, MAOA talking about bioweapons and melatonin cures and whatnot), and insofar as the IP address issue raises a rebuttable presumption of shared identity that has not been rebutted, I will avoid being gaslighted by simply ignoring both of them.

    Leviticus (140f0f)

  440. Dustin: Another content-free response based on nothing but your disagreement with my analysis and TDS.

    Based on the existing data, in one month’s time what do you estimate will be:

    (1) The number of U.S. cases;
    (2) The number of deaths;
    (3) The number of people requiring ventilators.

    Bonus question: How many additional deaths/cases will be attributed at that time to Trump’s alleged incompetence, inaction, failure to recognize the threat earlier? (I know there would not have been a single case, even in China, with Clinton or Obama at the helm).

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde)

  441. I will avoid being gaslighted by simply ignoring both of them.

    Leviticus (140f0f) — 3/22/2020 @ 8:52 pm

    Good idea.

    The Grand Inquisitor + Oppressed Victim thing is boring too.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  442. Jenny, you complaining about content free comments is like the kettle calling the pot black.
    MAOA at least has intelligent things to say, even when he’s totally offbase.

    Kishnevi (417b3c)

  443. I know people who do medical studies. I know people who review medical studies. I know people who practice medicine in reliance on medical studies. Nobody trusts Italian medical studies.

    nk (1d9030)

  444. Has anybody seen “Contagion”? Don’t bother watching it, it’s not worth it as a movie (it was the last time I went to a movie theater), just read the Wikipedia blurb.

    nk (1d9030)

  445. Kishnevi, looks like you’ve gone the content-free route as well. Point to one comment of mine that lacked content (which means something more than you merely disagreeing with the content).

    Jenny from Iowa (357dde)


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