Patterico's Pontifications

3/20/2020

Momentum Builds to Postpone Summer Olympics

Filed under: General — JVW @ 12:46 pm



[guest post by JVW]

USA Swimming has formally asked the United State Olympic Committee to request that the International Olympic postpone this summer’s Olympic Games, scheduled to open in Tokyo just over four months from today. The USA Swimming Olympic Trials are supposed to begin June 21, two days after the track and field trials begin. Four days later the gymnastics trials are to commence. USA Basketball planned to be holding training camps right about that time to select the men’s and women’s teams. But with the ability to conduct these events now in question for arguably the four most popular Summer Olympic sports, it’s likely that the USOC will join in the call to push the games back, perhaps even into next year.

This will of course be disastrous for the host country, Japan, who has like so many other host nations already seen the games become a financial sinkhole long before the coronavirus emerged. The Japanese government is estimated to have spent around $16 billion in preparation for the games, more than double the initial projection, with the expectation that roughly ten times that sum would flow through the Japanese economy from spectators, advertisers, merchandisers, and other people affiliated with the games. They further hoped that hosting the Olympics would generate nearly two million jobs over a period of two decades. Annual tourism to Japan had already tripled over the past five years, and the transportation minister had set a goal for 40 million visitors this year, a forty percent increase from last year.

So even a postponement — not to mention a disastrous cancellation — will have a devastating effect on the Japanese economy, which will of course cause ripples throughout Asia, the Pacific region, and even Europe. The Tokyo Olympic Games Planning Committee met with members of the Japanese government earlier this week, but as of now they continue to plan for their July 24 opening. I doubt they will be able to keep up this brave facade for too much longer. The fallout from this damn pandemic is going to be massive.

– JVW

33 Responses to “Momentum Builds to Postpone Summer Olympics”

  1. U.S. television rights for the Olympics is the biggest fish in the Olympics revenue lake, so if the USOC requests (or, let’s face it, demands) that the games be postponed then I think the IOC is going to be hard-pressed not to comply. The Italian Olympic Committee has already asked for a postponement, and it won’t surprise me if other countries soon follow along.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  2. 1. Given what a hot mess of corruption the IOC is, and the increasing meaninglessness of “amateur” athletics, I wouldn’t shed a tear.

    Gryph (08c844)

  3. Russian athletes have already been banned from competing under the Russian flag owing to Russia’s massive doping program, though they are allowed to enter competitions as independent athletes under the Olympic banner. So I suppose Putin would smile at a Tokyo Games postponement.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  4. Given what a hot mess of corruption the IOC is, and the increasing meaninglessness of “amateur” athletics, I wouldn’t shed a tear.

    The Olympics haven’t pretended to be for amateurs for thirty years. The U.S. was one of the last holdouts, but they gave in once the NBA realized how good it would for the global brand to have their players play in the Olympics. But your point about the IOC being a cesspool of corruption is well taken.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  5. Having worked on an experiment in Japan for many years, the Japanese have an almost Trump-like aversion to bad news.

    They don’t actually lie, like he does, but they will go to ridiculous lengths to avoid acknowledging unpleasant truth.

    In August 1945, with their navy at the bottom of the ocean, the Russians slicing through their armies like a hot knife through butter, their citizens eating tree-bark, and their major cities reduced to ashes (two of them radioactive slag), the Emperor described the war situation as “not necessarily to Japan’s advantage.”

    This will be really hard for them to accept.

    Dave (1bb933)

  6. I think it was sometime last week; there was news about how the IOC had changed from an in-person meeting to a virtual conference call to discuss whether they would cancel 2020. From the other thread, this is one of those things that tell you what’s going to happen. We don’t need to wait for Trump to tell us the 2020 Olympics are canceled.

    frosty (f27e97)

  7. “ They don’t actually lie”

    In 2008 their prime minister still insisted that the Chinese and Korean ‘Comfort Women’ were not coerced into becoming sex slaves of the Japanese Occupation.

    harkin (b64479)

  8. Just a few days ago I heard an NPR news brief that the Japanese were still hopeful that the Olympics would go off on schedule and thought: “are they out of their freaking minds?”

    “ So even a postponement — not to mention a disastrous cancellation — will have a devastating effect on the Japanese economy, which will of course cause ripples throughout Asia, the Pacific region, and even Europe.”

    Compared to the worldwide impact from the virus I’m reminded of 007’s comment regarding Japanese efficiency in You Only Live Twice.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  9. harkin (b64479) — 3/20/2020 @ 1:38 pm

    that the Japanese were still hopeful that the Olympics would go off on schedule

    Well … that’s not technically a lie. They probably are hopeful it goes off on schedule.

    are they out of their freaking minds?

    Probably. I can imagine a bunch of Japanese officials sitting in the stands with at least 6′, sorry 2m, between them and the Japanese contingent marching into the opening ceremony, everyone also 2m apart. With no one else but a bunch of Russians showing up with a sign ‘загорелый, отдохнувший, готовый’.

    frosty (f27e97)

  10. Even if the IOC, Tokyo Committee, and Japanese government decide to go through with the games, it’s hard to see a whole lot of tourists flocking to Tokyo to take it all in, especially given the economic uncertainty. That goes doubly if China were to allow its own citizens to attend the games. Tokyo residents can probably buy a good chunk of the unused tickets, but I would guess that hotels and restaurants would really suffer.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  11. In 2008 their prime minister still insisted that the Chinese and Korean ‘Comfort Women’ were not coerced into becoming sex slaves of the Japanese Occupation.

    Very true. I think of that as more historical revisionism, but you’re right it’s one area where they are outright dishonest (although for the older generation, at least, it is what they were taught in school, so I’m sure many truly believe it).

    When I went to the atomic bomb museum in Hiroshima (in the mid 80’s), the historical exhibits began with a panel about the fire-bombing of Japanese cities in 1945. No context at all about why America was bombing Japan, Japanese aggression in China, Pearl Harbor, etc.

    I wrote a complaint about it in the guest book.

    Dave (1bb933)

  12. Even getting it televised could be an issue…

    A 61-year-old NBC News employee died Thursday after testing positive for the coronavirus, the company announced on Friday.

    Larry Edgeworth, a longtime staffer, worked at NBC News’ 30 Rockefeller Plaza headquarters in New York and regularly traveled the world alongside reporters. He was an audio technician at the company for 25 years, according to NBC.

    Edgeworth’s wife, Crystal, told NBC that he suffered from other health issues in addition to coronavirus. He tested positive for coronavirus earlier in the week.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  13. Even getting it televised could be an issue…

    Great point. Who wants to bet that official postponement will be announced by this time next Friday?

    JVW (54fd0b)

  14. Compromise; go sterile: test the athletes [hell, the IOC tests them for everything else, why not The Bug]; play the games; televise the events– from empty stadiums, venues and w/no spectators. It’ll hurt some locally- but not the folks who really matter: the global advertisers and sponsors.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  15. Another option: remove all doping restrictions and go with the All-Drug Olympics.

    Each country can compete to medicate, hormonally and/or genetically enhance their athletes so heavily that they’re the last ones standing on the medals platform.

    “Up now is Sergei Akmudov of the Soviet Union.
    His trainer has told me that he’s taken anabolic steroids, Novocaine, Nyquil, Darvon and some sort of fish paralyzer. Also I believe he’s had several cocktails within the last hour or so…”

    Dave (1bb933)

  16. @13. Well the athletes don’t matter; if our Captain wants to stick it to Comcast– NBCUniversal’s owner- and it seems of late he does- he’ll bait Japan to do it. NYT reports: ‘NBCUniversal has sold $1.25 billion in ads for the Summer Games.’

    Ouch. The ‘make goods’ really sting the revenue stream– at all the media outlets- including not just NBC, but the others– and Fox,too – when any sporting event get postponed or cancelled and with so many different sports getting hit, it is going to hurt when the fiscal year is tallied up. And NBC really paid a pretty penny to carry the Olympics across all their platforms, too.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  17. 16. Do you know what else is going to hurt? Next year’s federal tax receipts, and more that the longer Americans are out of work if it comes to that.

    Gryph (08c844)

  18. Another option: remove all doping restrictions and go with the All-Drug Olympics.

    I’m for it, as long as we allow all athletes to choose their own genders too.

    It’s going to be fun watching the first “female” athlete break ten seconds in the 100 meter dash and the first “female” athlete swim a sub-22 second 50 meter freestyle.

    JVW (54fd0b)

  19. “ When I went to the atomic bomb museum in Hiroshima (in the mid 80’s), the historical exhibits began with a panel about the fire-bombing of Japanese cities in 1945. No context at all about why America was bombing Japan, Japanese aggression in China, Pearl Harbor, etc.

    I wrote a complaint about it in the guest book.”

    The Enola Gay exhibit at the Smithsonian was going to be the same hate-America drivel but luckily actual practicing historians intervened.

    Every time I hear some product of public schools declare that there was ‘no real difference’ between the USA and Japan in WW2 I usually point out a few things, and I never even mention Pearl Harbor. What the Japanese did to the people of Korea, China, Manchuria, Indochina, Burma, Malaysia etc. etc. etc. all under the claim of liberation should be taught in every high school history class.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  20. “ 16. Do you know what else is going to hurt? Next year’s federal tax receipts, and more that the longer Americans are out of work if it comes to that.”

    It’s going to be interesting when, after months of ordering everyone to cut back, the people say “OK, your turn!”.

    harkin (b64479)

  21. Every time I hear some product of public schools declare that there was ‘no real difference’ between the USA and Japan in WW2 I usually point out a few things, and I never even mention Pearl Harbor. What the Japanese did to the people of Korea, China, Manchuria, Indochina, Burma, Malaysia etc. etc. etc. all under the claim of liberation should be taught in every high school history class.

    I agree. Pearl Harbor was a military base and while the Japanese attack on us was unjustified, given the world situation our forces should have been prepared to meet and repulse an attack at any time. That they were not was a failure of our leadership.

    Dave (1bb933)

  22. I don’t get it. They cannot be thinking that people are going to show up.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  23. It’s going to be interesting when, after months of ordering everyone to cut back, the people say “OK, your turn!”.

    It’s a LOoooonG time to November, and the fat lady hasn’t taken the stage yet. Neither Biden or Trump is a convincing candidate; there has never been a better time for a quality independent insurgency. The system is unsustainable as it stands.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  24. Kevin M (ab1c11) — 3/20/2020 @ 6:15 pm

    I don’t get it. They cannot be thinking that people are going to show up.

    Some of this is just the weird psychological situation we’re in. I’m personally in a situation that is obviously much much smaller but the psychology is essentially the same. I had to tell people a few times at the start of this that not calling off some of our scheduled events was pointless because people weren’t going to show up anyway. The first few times I got blank looks. It was planned. See it’s right here on the schedule. We’ve had this planned for months and this has been going on for years.

    There’s a natural resistance to adapt to new information. The more abrupt or inconsistent the information is the stronger the resistance. There are numerous studies on how people will just ignore obvious things that don’t fit their perceptual framework.

    This is also one of the small flaws in the argument that we can just proceed normally with minimal interruption and we don’t have to take a big economic hit if we really don’t want too.

    frosty (f27e97)

  25. 19. What the Japanese did to the people of Korea, China, Manchuria, Indochina, Burma, Malaysia etc. etc. etc. all under the claim of liberation should be taught in every high school history class.

    Teaching history is racist. Most people have no idea that the Emperor was Divine. Kamikaze pilots gave their life to the Emperor. Not the Nation, or the people of Japan. If you want to know about the Japanese soldiers, just compare the survival rates for GI’s held by Germans vs GI’s held by Japan, They called the Batan death march for a reason.

    Iowan2 (bbb95d)

  26. @23 Neither Biden or Trump is guaranteed to be alive in November. Biden’s health doesn’t look good to me. Trump is also not looking healthy and this has to be taking a toll on him. That’s assuming neither of them get infected and they ain’t exactly outside of the high risk group. And as you say the situation is very very unstable.

    It’s been mentioned but died out; this situation with China is going to get worse before it gets worse. The situation in the EU is very unpredictable. Anyone keeping an eye on Pakistan because things are set to go pear shaped in India. There are a lot of unstable governments that are quickly getting a big unexpected kick.

    frosty (f27e97)

  27. It’s difficult to reconcile Japanese war atrocities with the Japanese character today.

    From what I’ve read the Japanese officers brutalized their own men as badly as their men brutalized ours. Not an excuse but perhaps an explanation.

    Dave (1bb933)

  28. “ From what I’ve read the Japanese officers brutalized their own men as badly as their men brutalized ours. Not an excuse but perhaps an explanation.”

    Until I read ‘Shattered Sword”, a history of the Battle Of Midway based on mostly Japanese records, I’d no idea that Imperial Navy officers and non-coms routinely punched and slapped crew as part of regular discipline.

    Still, that’s not as bad as how they treated the American fliers who survived going into the drink at Midway. They threatened them w decapitation to get info (most gave it) and then threw them overboard handcuffed to weights.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  29. Until I read ‘Shattered Sword”, a history of the Battle Of Midway based on mostly Japanese records, I’d no idea that Imperial Navy officers and non-coms routinely punched and slapped crew as part of regular discipline.

    I’ve personally seen ROK (not KATUSA) army do that as recently as the 1990s. And that’s not surprising. I think corporal punishment is not compatible with a volunteer/professional military, but for most militaries in the history of the world it’s stood the test of time.

    Dustin (b18b7a)

  30. Another explanation (not excuse) for the mistreatment of prisoners was that the Japanese were inculcated with the message that capture was the most dishonorable fate for a soldier.

    Until very near the end of the war, Japanese preferred to death to capture, to spare their families disgrace. With this deeply ingrained ethos, they viewed captured enemies as loathsome and deserving of the worst abuse imaginable, and believed they were doing them a favor by executing them.

    Dave (1bb933)

  31. “ Until very near the end of the war, Japanese preferred to death to capture, to spare their families disgrace. With this deeply ingrained ethos, they viewed captured enemies as loathsome and deserving of the worst abuse imaginable, and believed they were doing them a favor by executing them.”
    __ _

    Their superiors even seemed to prefer (the crews) death to survival.

    The survivors of the four carriers sunk at Midway, many of whom performed heroic deeds which would have earned them Congressional Medals of Honor or Navy Crosses from the USN, were brought back to bases in the Pacific and placed under arrest.

    They were not allowed to visit or even communicate with their families. They were then sent to the furthest reaches of the Japanese expansion and warned they would be shot if they mentioned to anyone what really happened. Even the ones injured and unable to continue serving were sequestered on hospital ships and not allowed visitors or the ability to communicate with anyone, sometimes for years. The doctors and nurses were even ordered to shame them about surviving.
    _

    harkin (b64479)

  32. People don’t understand that the Japanese had a secret police force that was more horrible than even the Gestapo. Japan was more aggressively controlled and survailled than even East Germany.

    Ragspierre (d9bec9)

  33. When, in its entire history prior to 1946, was Japan not a country of neurotics ruled by psychotics?

    nk (1d9030)


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.0940 secs.