Alabama has passed an anti-abortion law that begins at the moment of conception and contains no exceptions for rape or incest:
Alabama’s governor on Wednesday signed into law a measure to ban most abortions in the state. But the Legislature’s approval and the governor’s signature did not immediately outlaw the procedure, and it is far from clear when, or even if, the measure will ultimately take effect.
. . . .
The bill that the Republican-controlled Legislature overwhelmingly passed sought to prohibit abortions at every stage of pregnancy. It includes an exception for cases where a woman’s health is at “serious” risk, but lawmakers rejected a proposal to add exceptions for cases of rape or incest.
Women who have abortions will not be prosecuted under the measure, but, if the courts allow the law to stand, doctors could be charged with a felony and face up to 99 years in prison for performing the procedure.
. . . .
[A]bortion services will still be available in Alabama for the time being. At the earliest, the measure will take effect in six months.
During that six months, the law will inevitably be enjoined by the courts. The law is not intended to be a serious ban on abortion, but a vehicle to challenge Roe v. Wade and the case that upheld it: Casey v. Planned Parenthood.
There was once a majority of Justices ready to overturn Roe. Then Anthony Kennedy got cold feet and flipped his vote.
I doubt we’ll ever see such a majority again, although nobody can tell the future. The current group looks to me like a set of incrementalists, uneager to upset the applecart but happy to chip away at abortion rights. This law does not chip away at them but bludgeons them to death. My guess is that a U.S. District Judge will quickly put the law on hold, the 11th Circuit will uphold the decision, and the U.S. Supreme Court will not take the case.
I’ve been wrong before and I could be wrong about this.
[Cross-posted at The Jury Talks Back.]