Patterico's Pontifications

11/7/2016

The Electoral College and Popular Vote Predictions Thread

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 8:26 pm



Here are my predictions. I made them this morning.

Clinton wins.

Electoral college breakdown: Hillary 275, Trump 263.

Popular vote splits 51% to 49% for Hillary. [UPDATE: I mean, counting only the people voting Trump or Hillary. Nobody else matters; let’s be honest.]

[Factoring in the third-party folks, I’d say 49% Clinton, 47% Trump, 3% Johnson, 1% Stein, everyone else negligible.]

Get yours in now, before voting starts and it looks like you cheated!

P.S. GOP retains the Senate.

54 Responses to “The Electoral College and Popular Vote Predictions Thread”

  1. Your turn.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  2. How sure are you of that, Patterico?

    Simon Jester (c63397)

  3. Sadly, I think that HRC is going to do better.

    If only DJT had shown some self control, studied, and presented his position calmly.

    But it was not to be.

    Simon Jester (c63397)

  4. I got this swinging on Colorado unless Michigan miracle happens.

    Hi ho hi ho (42bad1)

  5. My prediction:
    Either Trump or Hillary win.

    The rest of us lose.

    Kishnevi (3ebfe9)

  6. HRC 323
    DJT 209
    EM 6

    HRC takes NH, NC, FL, PA, NV. DJT gets OH.

    McMullin takes Utah

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  7. Electoral college breakdown: Hillary 275, Trump 263.

    You didn’t take account of the faithless Elector in the state of Washington, assuming he follows through, but that’s OK anyway – we want a prediction of how it will look on Election Night or a few days later.

    Popular vote splits 51% to 49% for Hillary.

    That’s wrong. There’s aminimum if 6% to 8 for third parties. Whether they’ll notice how high it went on Election Night is another story. Unofficial counts, I think, miss write-ins and sometimes minor candidates.

    Nate Silver says polls are converging at Hillary at almost 4 points ahead of Trump but that could be, and probably is, herding,

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/

    …and too high, so your 2% difference is in line with him.

    Only it’s not 51% to 49% but more like 45% to 43%, or even 43% to 41%.

    Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9)

  8. Oops…HRC takes popular vote 49-47 over DJT.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  9. 276 trump to 262 clinton, Michael Moore with newfound respect As Trump takes MI (the I-75 corridor will be a clean sweeep), but the double cross will keep WI blue. Surprisingly AZ Will be a nail biter and a late night clincher.

    urbanleftbehind (847a06)

  10. Practically every news show in New York City for the last several days has had multiple runs of the same ad by Zephyr Teachout – who ran in the Democratic primary for Governor and lost but is now running for Congress in a district well up the Hudson River from New York where she moved.

    She’s in some kind of a boat and talking about cleaning up the river by not putting a cap on local property taxes – the bad thing her opponent was for. It is an ad that nobody can really undersand what she’s talking about without having heard something else, and she doesn’t even reveal in the ad whether she is a Democrat or a Republican. She has only the one ad and it runs over and over.

    Charles Schumer has at last let people know that he’s up for re-election this year. The first ad I saw also featured Kirsten Gillbrand. There is also smebody in New Jersey running for something.

    No presidential ads except on national TV.

    We don’t really have elections for Congress in New York.

    Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9)

  11. At least 100k fraudulent votes in Florida.

    NJRob (7a7e3e)

  12. How sure are you of that, Patterico?

    Pfft. Not at all.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  13. 49 Trump, 46 Clinton, 2 Stein, 2 johnson, 1 McMullin.

    urbanleftbehind (847a06)

  14. Oops…HRC takes popular vote 49-47 over DJT.

    Yeah, I didn’t even think about the third-party candidates. I said 51-49 thinking of the universe as those voting for Clinton or Trump — because, in the end, everyone else is irrelevant.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  15. While I am at it, and no, you did not ask. 50-50 Senate, which flips Democrat thanks to HRC’s win.

    What do you think, Pat?

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  16. Trump for the win. House stays Rep, Senate goes Dem.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  17. A Kennedy-Nixon squeaker.

    JR wins– barely. Popular vote splits w/less than 1% for JR over Maudie.
    GOP holds House, loses Senate. Electoral college breakdown: yes.

    “Let’s work the problem people. Let’s not make things worse by guessing.” – Gene Kranz [Ed Harris] ‘Apollo 13’ 1995

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  18. [Factoring in the third-party folks, I’d say 49% Clinton, 47% Trump, 3% Johnson, 1% Stein, everyone else negligible.]

    P.S. GOP retains the Senate.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  19. No clue. I won’t even predict that Mike Lee will beat Misty Snow. This flaming election is crazy.

    I will be prouder than Michelle Obama, though, if neither neither lemon gets more than 40 million votes.

    nk (dbc370)

  20. Comment 14 is interesting given the nevertrump position.

    Just dropping that right here ….

    Hi ho hi ho (42bad1)

  21. I simply hope that Republicans have finally figured out that if they fabricate 100 fake votes, you need to fabricate 120.

    All this integrity thing annoys me to no end as you see the graft getting more brazen by the day.

    Hi ho hi ho (42bad1)

  22. The New York Daily News was mildly over the top for Hillary today (Monday)

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/the-week?pdate=20161107

    …after playing it straight on Sunday:

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/the-week?pdate=20161106

    (pro-Hillary inside but not overemphasing it, and clearly seprating editorial from news, amd running some letters counter to the whole thing) The headline was about a local crime – about a policeman who was killed.

    And also on Saturday:

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/the-week?pdate=20161105

    Friday was anti-Trump, Thirsday was baseball and wednesday, well look at it:

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/the-week?pdate=20161102

    And you can go back to the previous saturday to see how it varied. I guess Mortimer Zuckerman saw some new polls on Sunday, or it was that second letter from Comey. Now he thinks Hillary is going to win. He wasn’t so sure on Sunday.

    Of course, maybe it is the odds on an indictment that the front page of the New York Daily News, and its entire treatment of Hillary Clinton, is reflecting and not the election outlook.

    Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9)

  23. Trump 282, Clinton 254

    Trump carries Arizona, Florida, N.Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, NH, and PENNSYLVANIA puts him over the top.

    Clinton carries Nevada, Colorado, Viriginia, and Michigan.

    Popular vote is 47 Trump, 47 Clinton, 5 Johnson, 1 Stein.

    GOP holds the Senate 51-49.

    shipwreckedcrew (56b591)

  24. Hawaii is on the verge of having its only elected Rep. in the State Senate lose his seat after 20 years.

    The entire Hawaii State Senate will be Dems. And the House has only about 6 GOP members out of 50.

    shipwreckedcrew (56b591)

  25. @24-That’s quite a Hono-lulu.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  26. Dixville Notch official results…HRC 4 DJT 2 Romney 1 Johnson 1. Their votes in the previous 4 general elections also won the presidency.

    DN went for Bush in 2004, NH went Kerry. That is the last time DN and NH differed and did not each go Democrat.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  27. Note the high percentage in Dixville Notch for third party candidates and write-in protest votes (25%) They must be more #NeverTrump than #NeverHillary.

    That is the last time DN and NH differed and did not each go Democrat.

    That is a sample of just two elections: 2008 and 2012.

    DN appears to lean slightly Democratic, but less so than New Hampshire as a whole.

    Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9)

  28. The combined votes of the three midnight precincts/towns in NH:

    DJT 32
    HRC 25
    Johnson 4
    Write-ins 5

    Let’s all listen/read to the various media reporting. DN went HRC. Trump actually leads overall. Guess which version we will all hear about?!

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  29. splunge, but I’m not being indecisive,

    narciso (d1f714)

  30. 28. 66 votes. Third party and write-ins (which are meaningless with no Electors) 9 or 13.6%

    It’s way higher than what we’ve been saying here in this thread tiil now, although a vte that people pay close attention to maybe different and New Hampshire may be different from other states.

    I said one time that if the combined 2-party presidential vote is above 77% or 78% Hllary wins, and if nit, she loses, but as to who wins that depends. Maybe 78% is to low tfor that effect.

    Anyway what we are seeiing now is 86%. I’m not sure this will hold up through all of the returns.

    The 86% splits here 48-29 in favor of Trump. (results do not add up precisely due to rounding)That definitely won’t hold up. Now if I knew previous results from these 3 places I could make a better projection, especially iff I knew who moved in or out and where they were from..

    Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9)

  31. Itwas around 54 degrees today, but not windy and Election Day in New York is predicted to hit 65 degrees, Very mild, and the best weather.

    The next day rain is predicted, not quite as bad as in 1972, when it rained all day.

    Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9)

  32. clinton 289. trump 243. mcmullin 6.

    senate 50-50

    aphrael (a30bec)

  33. Sammy – Thank you. My point is that the media will default to the headline of DN, which is just one more (perhaps the final) editorial edge they can give to HRC. Nate Silver is on record that there is no statistical correlation that can be drawn in these midnight votes to eventual outcomes in NH, nor nationally.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  34. Comment 14 is interesting given the nevertrump position.

    Just dropping that right here ….

    I was fully aware of that. Do you think I believe my write-in vote for McMullin tomorrow will be relevant??

    What did I ever say to lead you to believe I thought that?

    I’ll go you one better: no vote of mine could possibly be relevant.

    And if you read my companion post tonight, I also acknowledge that my blog and my opinions, while influential with some, are ultimately irrelevant when it comes to doing battle with our irresponsible friend Mr. Electorate.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  35. Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 11/7/2016 @ 10:23 pm

    Nate Silver is on record that there is no statistical correlation that can be drawn in these midnight votes to eventual outcomes in NH, nor nationally.

    Actually you can probably use it a litle bit. If you know the way hey voted other times, and you know what special factors or campaigning might have affected their vote.

    It’s still much too small for a poll, but I think we can still see that write-ins and third party votes are running heavier than ia usual election. I think.

    Dixville Notch used to have more people and yet the last previous write in or rhird party was 1 vote for Ralph Nader in the year 2000 9(out of 27)

    In 1996: Perot 1 Harry Browne 1 out of 28. In 1992, 13 out of 30 – 8 Perot, 5 Marrou (?) In 1988 1 out of 38 – a write in for Jack Kemp.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire

    These write-ins and third party votes this year tell you things (or rather confirm what you aalready xpected) and they happened at a high level in all 3 towns.

    Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9)

  36. You dismiss the 3rd party/indy vote. I think it’s critical. Denying HRC a “mandate” from “a majority of the American people” is valuable for playing defense (again).

    Robert C. J. Parry (35b573)

  37. Patterico, at 34: would it be *harder* for you to take the same stand if you thought your vote could be relevant?

    aphrael (3f0569)

  38. Sammy – Thanks again! I do agree with you that there is unusual rejection of the two man candidates reflected in the counted NH votes. Lord knows I went off that reservation, myself!

    Well…Fox News first reported only the DN numbers. But, they later have gone with the overall numbers showing DJT ahead.

    Super interesting point was made by a Dem apparatchik. She posited that the exit polling will reflect a reluctance of voters to own up to having voted for DJT and that some (significant?) number will report they voted HRC. Something to monitor after 5 PM ET tonight.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  39. Patterico, at 34: would it be *harder* for you to take the same stand if you thought your vote could be relevant?

    It’s easy to say no, but if I somehow knew my vote would decide the race between Trump and Clinton (what an impossible scenario)? Wow. Hard to imagine. I think Jonah Goldberg said that in that circumstance and only that circumstance, he’d vote Trump. Well, great! The only reason your vote would EVER matter is if it were a tie-breaker.

    I don’t think I agree with Jonah. I’m in the Erick Erickson camp. If you hold a gun to my head and tell me to choose, I think I say: “shoot.”

    Patterico (115b1f)

  40. You dismiss the 3rd party/indy vote. I think it’s critical. Denying HRC a “mandate” from “a majority of the American people” is valuable for playing defense (again).

    Yeah, well, I believe it enough that I’ll be writing in McMullin. Whom I don’t consider ideal . . . but Trumpers keep telling me the candidate you vote for does not have to be ideal. So.

    Patterico (115b1f)

  41. Recounts and lawsuits for the next three months, probably being resolved in Hillary’s favor. The whole population so tired of the election at last being over, that Hillary gets a honeymoon after all. With a worshipful media and a weaponized bureaucracy, 40 years of one-party rule ala PRI.

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)

  42. The election will turn on how many #NeverTrumps find themselves voting for Trump in the solitude of the voting booth. We all say that we won’t do it, that all the “oh, no, not Hillary” arguments are wasted on us, but at that final point, do you really vote for Johnson or write in McMullin?

    If you believe the polls, Hillary leads by 3, Johnson has 5%, Stein 2% and 8% are undecided or other. How many Johnson voters end up as Trump voters? How many undecided (and most of them are NOT deciding between Hillary or Trump) end up voting for Trump instead of Mickey Mouse?

    My answer: enough.

    Trump will lose the popular vote by about a percent.
    Trump will win the electoral vote with 270 or 274, depending on Nevada. He will win FL, NC, NH, GA, OH, IA, AZ and ME2 out of RCP’s tossups.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  43. I also predict a recount.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  44. Oops. 270 or 276, depending on Nevada. D’oh.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  45. Tipping points:

    If Trump loses FL or NC, it’s over. If Trump wins PA, it’s also over.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  46. Senate: GOP loses 2 seats (IL and WI) barely misses a pickup in NV (again).

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  47. @39 I don’t think I agree with Jonah. I’m in the Erick Erickson camp. If you hold a gun to my head and tell me to choose, I think I say: “shoot.”

    Which is to say, you ‘chooze’ another option.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  48. No predictions, except that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow and that when it does, I won’t feel guilty for denying my vote to either Trump or Clinton.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  49. he’ll win all 50 states, Mr. Trump will

    from sea to shining sea

    it’s time to light the unity candle

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  50. Talk is cheap, Mr. Feet.

    Happy to take your bet.

    Wonder why you won’t?

    Oh, that’s right.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  51. it’s so good

    this blissful anticipation

    of vanquished pig

    it really is just so good

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  52. no no no mister the jester im like the smart witty contrarian guy

    i say pig and perv and harvardtrash and laugh at my own cutting edge wit i think

    imma go say pig a few more hundred times and be like so edgy and clever i think

    oh look at me look at me imma be the sad attention ho i desperate need your attention pickles ho ho so funny

    here wait for it heres my signature cool thing i do: stinkypig harvardtrash perv coward failmerica!

    omg the ladies just line up to my door what with my charm and wit

    Idiot Feet (f1f212)

  53. you’re mean

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  54. Mr happyfeet, since Simon Jester allows you to live rent-free inside his head, you should at least be sporting and offer him the occasional use of your box seats at the symphony!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)


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