Nate Silver: Hillary Clinton Is One State Away from Losing the Election
If your top priority in this election is to be entertained (and let’s face it, that’s a pretty good description of an electorate that nominated Donald Trump), then you should be thrilled. You want drama? You got it!
NATE SILVER, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: So, we show a three-point lead nationally for Clinton, and she’s about a 2-1 favorite. The electoral college map is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago where four years ago we had Obama ahead in states totaling 320 some electoral votes. Clinton has about 270, so she’s one state away from potentially losing the electoral college. You’d rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump’s but it’s not a terribly safe position.
Whether all this excites you or depresses you depends on who you’re rooting for. Are you a fan of the vindictive New York leftist under multiple investigations who favors single-payer health care and amnesty? Or are you for Hillary Clinton? (Make sure to tip your waitresses; I’m here all week!)
Silver goes on to explain that, while the national polling is about the same for Hillary as it was for Obama in 2012, her lead is softer in several key battleground states. Turnout will be important.
Luckily, the GOP nominated a candidate who spared no expense on his ground game, and showed great attention to detail in terms of creating and carefully maintaining sophisticated voter turnout mechanisms.
Oh wait, sorry, I was just dreaming that the GOP had nominated Ted Cruz. Never mind!
[Cross-posted at RedState.]
UPDATE: This is crazy:
http://www.latlmes.com/nation/breaking-pa-poll-trump-47-hillary-42-1
Nate Silver: ‘Calm down,’ Donald Trump won’t win the GOP nomination
http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-wont-win-2015-9
=yawn=
“The numbers Mr. Keith! The numbers!” – ‘Marooned’ – 1969
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/6/2016 @ 1:07 pmI’d like to see the electorate remove Nate from his perch at their earliest convenience, and they don’t have to be particularly gentile doing it.
papertiger (c8116c) — 11/6/2016 @ 3:45 pmnate pewter, are we still paying attention to him,
narciso (d1f714) — 11/6/2016 @ 3:49 pmUPDATE: This is crazy:
http://www.latlmes.com/nation/breaking-pa-poll-trump-47-hillary-42-1
Patterico (115b1f) — 11/6/2016 @ 4:00 pmyou would think after the cubs win, he would reserve judgement,
narciso (d1f714) — 11/6/2016 @ 4:09 pmThinking something more like this. Silver Falls 1.24% on Heavy Volume…
papertiger (c8116c) — 11/6/2016 @ 4:19 pmIt’s going to again be a turnout election and the Trumpkins gave us a man who won’t spend on a ground game. Brilliant
SPQR (a3a747) — 11/6/2016 @ 9:47 pmand the democrats gave us a woman so unsavory she couldn’t draw flies sitting in a fruit salad.
papertiger (c8116c) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:04 pmSo we’ll see.
@8.and the democrats gave us a woman so unsavory she couldn’t draw flies sitting in a fruit salad. So we’ll see.
In fact, we have seen. Review the debate video and watch the fly drawn to the ‘peaches & cream’ make-up.
“Help me! Help meeee!” – Andre Delambre [David ‘Al’ Hedison] ‘The Fly’ 1958
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/6/2016 @ 11:37 pmBut since she is ahead in the polls the odds are she wouldn’t.
A casual opverview would say that Trump has to win Ohio, Iowa (both likely) Florida, North Carolina – and then New Hampshire and Nevada or one surprise state like Michigan or Colorado.
Starting from the New York Daily News map that had Hillary Clinton at 268 Electoral votes, if she carries Nevada, Trump getting Maine, even all of Maine, leaves her at 271, and even the lost Elector from the state of Washington still leaves her at 270. And she can still lose New Hampshire, which is not included in the 268. If she carries both New Hampshire and Nevada and 3/4 of Maine, trump can make up for it by caerying Colorado.
There are polls that show Hillary Clinton in a slight lead in both North carolina and Florida, but both off these polls give Gary Johnson only 3%. If third parties get so little, yes she wins the state. All through the year polls have shown that as the percentage voting for third parties goes up, her lead goes down. Trump really should have promoted vting for neitehr as an alternative.
Hillary Clinton seems to be defending more or less blue sattes including Pennsylvania. That indicates something about internal polls. I think I can explain what;’s going on.
The polls probably show that the latere someone decided who to vote for, the less likely they are to vote for her. She may be getting as little as 30% of those votes. And the early voting wa snot as high as they had intended.
What she and her campaign staff are concerned about is that late deciding voters – and people who hadn’t decided whether or not they were going to vote – are going to vote heavily for Trump.
Sammy Finkelman (643dcd) — 11/7/2016 @ 12:29 pmThe following potentially close states have election day registration: Iowa, New Hampshire. Colorado, Maine and Wisconsin.
Sammy Finkelman (643dcd) — 11/7/2016 @ 12:31 pmIf you had told me 4 weeks ago that on Nov. 7 Clinton would be working hard in Michigan, Penn, and NC, I would have said Trump is going to win.
I’m not sure he’s going to get over the finish line, but if Clinton doesn’t have Michigan put away then the chances for a big surprise tomorrow are pretty significant.
The key in Michigan is the fact that there is no contested Senate race buoying GOP turnout. That Trump is doing well enough to threaten Clinton in Michigan when his campaign and the GOP Nat. Comm. are the only two sources to turn out the vote, tells me that he’s got a good shot to out-perform the polls in states where incumbent GOP Senators are on the ballot with him. Richard Burr in North Carolina, Pat Toomey in PA, and even Ron Johnson in Wisc. all have home-built turnout machines to get them re-elected that might drag Trump over the finish line. In both Wisc and PA, Trump will benefit from disaffected working class voters, and in North Carolina, Clinton is not going to get the turnout of African American voters that Obama got in 2008 and 2012.
Barack Obama went to Ann Arbor today — a college town in Michigan.
You think that was accidental or by happenstance??
Early voting trends are likely showing weakness in young voters as well — they are NOTORIOUS for being unreliable on election day.
shipwreckedcrew (56b591) — 11/7/2016 @ 2:18 pmOn the CBS Evening News somebody said (maybe John Dickerson) that Trump has to carry 2/3 of the close states to win – and at another point someone said theer were 13 of them.
That means to win Trump has to carry 8 1/2 of the 13. (8 if it includes he bigger ones
I can only come up with 12. Well, maybe 13.
Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, and Nevada.
Hillary is favored in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia and maybe Maine. If she wins them all, or even all but one of them, that’s probably the ballgame unless Trump also wins either Pennsylvania or Michigan or at least Colorado or Virginia – and some of the others are really close, such as Florida and North Carolina.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/7/2016 @ 7:49 pmThe polls are converging at Hillary Clinton winning by just under 4 percentage points in the national popular votem bu,m as Nate Silver wrote some years ago, polls tend to converge as an election nears, but not to what the actual results are going to be. It’s called herding.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-proof-some-pollsters-are-putting-a-thumb-on-the-scale/
In brief: Pollsters are constantly tweaking their models. Because the respoinse rate is so low you can’t do just a simple sample but need to adjust the numbers, and there is a great tendency to tweak it so that your poll is not that different from the other polls, especially as an election nears.
State polls will converge completely separately, and because of that may show a combined result (afacoring in hiow unpolled states like Kansas are lokely to go) that is different from the national average.
He says:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clinton-gains-and-the-polls-magically-converge/
The biggest unknown is probably late, late deciders, in states where people vote later, and how many people will vote for third parties and how many people will or will not vote, and who.
Sammy Finkelman (6d2ca9) — 11/7/2016 @ 8:25 pm