Patterico's Pontifications

10/19/2016

Trump Pulverized in New Poll

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 9:00 am



A new poll is out from PRRI, and it is a shocker, showing Hillary Clinton with a national lead of — wait for it — FIFTEEN points, 51%-36%:

With only three weeks remaining in the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton maintains a double-digit lead over Donald Trump among likely voters (51% vs. 36%, respectively).1 Support for Clinton among likely voters has increased significantly over the past few weeks. In late September, Clinton was tied with Trump among likely voters (43% vs. 43%, respectively).

Democratic voters are more likely to support Hillary Clinton than Republican voters are to support Donald Trump. Ninety-five percent of Democratic likely voters say they are supporting Clinton while roughly nine in ten (87%) Republican likely voters report they are supporting their party’s nominee. Clinton has opened up a substantial lead with independent voters, who are supporting her by a 16-point margin (46% vs. 30%, respectively). Notably, roughly one in four independent voters say they will be casting a ballot for a third-party candidate (17%) or report no candidate preference at all (7%).

Clinton continues to benefit from her overwhelming lead among female likely voters, who favor Clinton over Trump by a margin of nearly two to one (57% vs. 31%, respectively). Male likely voters are nearly evenly divided in their candidate preferences, with roughly four in ten supporting Clinton (44%) and Trump (40%). This represents a stark reversal from last week, when Trump held a considerable advantage over Clinton among male voters (48% vs. 37%, respectively).

This is the same poll that had Clinton up by 11 a week ago, and had the candidates tied 43% to 43% less than a month ago. This chart from Kyle Griffin shows the trend:

prri-poll-trend

Now for the caveat: last week’s poll had Trump down by 33 points among women voters — a gap that Allahpundit said was “enormous to the point of implausibility.” That gap has lowered to 26 points — but, as Larry David might say, that’s still pret-ty, pret-ty big. Outlier-ish, one might even say. And the 15-point national lead is obviously larger than most polls have shown in recent days. But the trend is not good for Trump heading into tonight’s debate.

Not good at all.

P.S. The PRRI servers appear to be melting this morning, and the link to the poll has not been working since I first read about it around 9:15 Eastern this morning. Feel free to use this Google cache link, which is how I accessed the poll.

[Cross-posted at RedState.]

217 Responses to “Trump Pulverized in New Poll”

  1. If he cant get it done tonight, Trump needs to root for the Doyers to win the World Series.

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  2. Your glee is an interesting example of the weird obsession of Trump haters this year.

    There is no consideration that Hillary, if she wins, may get us into a losing war in a year. Of course Orwell said, “There is no need for war, There is always surrender.”

    No doubt you are looking forward to the millions of Muslim immigrants. LA is already a third illegals.

    Interesting.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  3. It’s going to be worse than the polls, because GOTV efforts on the dem side will be intense and well funded. Trump has run a slipshod campaign with terrible organization, much as Trump has run his businesses into the ground over and over again, skating by on bankruptcy and fraud deals with the democrats he donates to.

    Don’t be surprised if Trump only gets in the 30s in the popular vote.

    Thanks, Trump fans! Hillary is going to be awful and you’re going to blame everyone but yourselves.

    Dustin (ba94b2)

  4. the weird obsession of Trump haters this year.

    You mean the interest in pointing out how right folks were to say Trump was a sure loser, a ridiculously sure loser, and nominating him was handling the election to Hillary?

    It would be pretty silly to think Trump’s enormous failure has anything to do with anyone but himself. It’s just too severe to blame your favorite conservative blogs.

    Dustin (ba94b2)

  5. Common sense is not so common, is it, Mike K?

    Colonel Haiku (7967f2)

  6. Everyone buckle your boot straps, we’re in for a wild ride in a Hillary Clinton Presidency!

    Dejectedhead (0c7c2f)

  7. …and those illegals might mitigate that Muslim threat much as they did part of Daryl Gates’ job of curtailing the Crips and Bloods i.e. the greenlighting. Special Order 40 was a quid pro quo proposition.

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  8. For what it’s worth, I did not see PRRI listed in Silver’s 538 grading of pollsters… unless the were listed under a different name and there were many, many polling companies.

    Colonel Haiku (7967f2)

  9. You mean the interest in pointing out how right folks were to say Trump was a sure loser, a ridiculously sure loser, and nominating him was handling the election to Hillary?

    Now, Dustin, you know it’s all the NeverTrumpers’ fault that Trump is losing. Not the asinine things that come out of his mouth. The NeverTrumpers, all on their own, have somehow gotten almost 2/3 of the country to not vote for him. Now if they could only get a similar percentage to not for Hillary, this country has a chance.

    Chuck Bartowski (bc1c71)

  10. Chuck, it’s a heavy burden to know that I, nevertrumper, personally did this to poor Trump, who can’t be responsible for anything, be it grabbing women who think he is repulsive or saying things that cost him an election by double digits.

    When you realize the power Trump’s critics have, it’s a wonder Trumpkins haven’t been appealing to us to save them. This whole time they were smearing Cruz and bashing us endlessly as losers, we were the key to the whole election? Smooth move, guys!

    Dustin (ba94b2)

  11. Clinton will be the first candidate to win in a landslide and not have a mandate.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  12. Chuck, it’s a heavy burden to know that I, nevertrumper, personally did this to poor Trump

    Dustin, take heart. I share this burden with you. If it were not for us, if we had not stabbed him in the back by doing exactly what we said we’d do he’d be coasting to victory as we speak.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  13. Now, since it is obvious that Trumpism and Republicanism cannot coexist in the same party, how do we encourage them to go find their own meeting hall?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  14. Perhaps we need to screen GOP candidates before they can run for out party’s nominations. E.g.:

    V. Do you reject Trump?
    R. I do.

    V. And all his works?
    R. I do.

    V. And all his empty promises?
    R. I do.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  15. Then turn and spit on him three times.

    nk (dbc370)

  16. When The True Believer met The Madness of Crowds, married, and then died in a dumpster fire.

    Rick Ballard (1919a4)

  17. 14. #ArmchairGeneral

    Colonel Haiku (7967f2)

  18. the weird obsession of Trump haters this year.

    What I find weird is that ANYONE could be taken in by this guy. I just don’t get it. I saw him for what he was the moment he took the stage. A blowhard, bullying, self-centered, ignorant meshugenah who was the least qualified person on a stage than included Rick Santorum.

    And at no point did he prove me wrong.

    Everyone who supported him kept saying “It will get better, you’ll see” and it never did. In fact it got continually worse. Everything we said would happen, did happen. Everything his supporters said would happen failed to happen, except, sadly, he was nominated — a stain the GOP will be decades blotting out.

    And, since he’s going to lose, no self-respecting Republican will vote for him. Unlike Goldwater, one cannot say that they are losing with pride. It’s paper bag time.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  19. I love Mr. Trump because he is so good

    and because he is Mr. Trump

    happyfeet (bebb04)

  20. Kevin,

    most on here aren’t taken in by this guy. But we understand that Hillary is much, much worse.

    Trump has at least surrounded himself with conservatives. Hillary has gone full leftist and is trying to collapse the system.

    I don’t want to raise my children in a socialist nation.

    Do you?

    NJRob (a07d2e)

  21. Now you’re just gloating.

    crazy (d3b449)

  22. I hate to point out the obvious fellas, but with a spread like that you can kiss the senate goodbye. You can also kiss most state majorities goodbye.

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-b0R5XqUYUXA/WAbZgYDB7oI/AAAAAAABCwc/cawFmzk0w6Et4X9BTav00ubD6BvL_QS5ACEw/s1600/1%2B1%2B1%2Bninetymiles9i11v1tax84vo1_1280.jpg

    Rev. Hoagie® (785e38)

  23. But we understand that Hillary is much, much worse.

    No, she is just much much different. It’s like comparing rotten fruit and rotten meat. Which would you rather eat?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  24. It took a decade or two for the part to slowly, painfully gain the House, the Senate, two thirds of the state houses and legislatures and a Supreme Court on the verge of remaking.

    And then we nominated the worst candidate in the history of our party and threw it all away.

    Don’t come crying to me about socialism. This is your doing, not mine. I’m old enough it doesn’t matter — socialism will work out just fine. Sure, it will all fall apart after I’m dead, but I can’t be bothered any more to try to keep the lemmings from the cliff.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  25. No, she is just much much different

    No, she is much, much worse. It’s like comparing rotten fruit to a full blown fascist. Who’s crap would you rather follow.

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bgpJXdq20J4/WABbdxtgNgI/AAAAAAABCpw/oA-xGCsdxvAkBhUvW-23soFRX1NjMHQ3QCLcB/s1600/1%2B1%2B1ninetymilesaG8Rt1uagetbo1_1280.jpg

    Rev. Hoagie® (785e38)

  26. Your glee is an interesting example of the weird obsession of Trump haters this year.

    This post reports factual information about a new poll. It uses a colorful term in the headline to describe how devastating the poll is ti Trump, and includes a caveat about the poll. Does factual information about how poorly Trump is doing distress you?

    Patterico (186129)

  27. Instapundit has links to other polls, not so bleak as these.

    Anyone else notice that when Wikileaks was just endangering intelligence operations, no one could do anything, but now that it’s impacting the election all of a sudden they can cut off Assange’s internet access?

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)

  28. Common sense is not so common, is it, Mike K?

    Colonel Haiku (7967f2) — 10/19/2016 @ 9:55 am

    What about the factual information in the post indicates a lack of common sense on my part, Colonel?

    Absolutely nothing, you say? Why, you’re right!

    Patterico (186129)

  29. the weird obsession of Trump haters this year.

    The remarkable thing about the Trump haters is how complacent they are when faced with Democrat corruption. This is particularly true of the Republican establishment. Mark Steyn has been posting on his website recently, and his article today is worth thinking about:

    http://www.steynonline.com/7564/laws-are-for-the-little-people

    He relies on Victor Davis Hanson for some of his best points, and Hanson is nominally a Democrat. But Hanson is an Army of One when it comes to Democrats who still have a sense of right and wrong. The rest of that bunch are nothing but worms. Half of the Republican establishment is intent on undermining Trump, but Hanson is about the only Democrat who has voiced even the slightest concern over Hillary! This is asymmetric warfare beyond anything that islam offers.

    The bottom line is that we seem to have acquiesced in allowing our country to become a banana republic.

    BobStewartatHome (a52abe)

  30. The polls cited by Instapundit were not being reported when I wrote my post. Rasmussen is Trumpy but take all polls for what they are worth and factor them into the rolling average.

    Patterico (186129)

  31. @Patterico:take all polls for what they are worth

    I already do. The only one that matters hasn’t been held yet, and I will vote my conscience regardless of how popular or unpopular that is.

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)

  32. There are also some very dire new state polls.

    Anyway, I am not a full-time blogger so use me as one source among many.

    Patterico (186129)

  33. Gabriel,

    Me too!

    Patterico (186129)

  34. @Patterico: Me too!

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)

  35. The difference is, I won’t criticize you or others here for your vote.

    Patterico (186129)

  36. @Patterico: Me too

    The next few years will be ugly, and we shall all need to hang together, lest we all hang separately..

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)

  37. Dustin, take heart. I share this burden with you. If it were not for us, if we had not stabbed him in the back by doing exactly what we said we’d do he’d be coasting to victory as we speak.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

    Hahahaha

    It’s funny that we often are not quite the same on a few political issues, but on decency we’re usually on the same page. And neither of us can tolerate Trump shilling.

    The GOP was on the verge of a truly great opportunity. Hillary vs Rubio/Walker/Cruz would have been optimism and vision versus crony corrupt sleaze. Yeah, the machine would have rolled on them, but it would have failed because no one actually likes Hillary. I don’t even think Bill likes her. In all the anger at our supposed disloyalty it’s probably not understood that this year was supposed to be awesome for conservatives. It’s not like we’re losing another lame Mccain election.

    I just hope the House doesn’t go democrat. Their GOTV operation will be shocking to some.

    Dustin (ba94b2)

  38. I know what let’s do. Let’s pretend this is a normal election and Donald Trump is a normal Republican candidate. That way, we can preen about we’re better than Trump critics, and go on and on about how any critic of Trump is a backstabber and disloyal to classical liberal principles.

    It’s bullshit but it makes us feel better in a tribal sort of way, so just play along, or shut your fucking mouth, while we do our little pretending thing we’re doing.

    Thanks!

    Patterico (186129)

  39. Not directed at Gabriel, obviously — or really any one person here.

    There are those on Twitter to whom it applies though. In spades.

    Patterico (186129)

  40. And then there’s Maude…

    “When you’re leading, don’t talk.” – Thomas E. Dewey, 1948

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  41. Instead of sitting on the sidelines and letting others choose for you why don’t you vote for the one Congress would be willing to impeach?

    crazy (d3b449)

  42. IMHO, again, it’s the entire buzzfeed approach. But it is your decision, your blog, and yes, I know where the door is.

    Colonel Haiku (7967f2)

  43. Dustin,

    Don’t underestimate the power of the female vote in this election either. Any woman running against any man will have a very real advantage. I saw this in the primary in down ballot races and I will leave it at that.

    Patterico (186129)

  44. bend over and kiss your guns and ammo good buy!

    no guns soon (2de7bc)

  45. IMHO, again, it’s the entire buzzfeed approach. But it is your decision, your blog, and yes, I know where the door is.

    Colonel Haiku (7967f2) — 10/19/2016 @ 12:36 pm

    I literally don’t know what you’re talking about.

    Patterico (186129)

  46. Instead of sitting on the sidelines and letting others choose for you why don’t you vote for the one Congress would be willing to impeach?

    crazy (d3b449) — 10/19/2016 @ 12:36 pm

    No such candidate exists. You are in Dreamland.

    Patterico (186129)

  47. Did I start doing listicles or something?

    I know this will garner a “no but at this rate you will be soon.” If you’re tempted to say that, go fuck yourself.

    If you have a better idea for what to post, leave links in the morning early enough for me to read — or, better yet, since I am rushed in the mornings and can’t read all my comments, email me with them — or maybe even start your own blog.

    This seemed like the story of the morning to me. So sorry my editorial judgment and yours did not happen to line up but you gave me no help so blame yourself.

    Patterico (186129)

  48. How bad does it have to get before you vote Libertarian? And don’t tell me the Libertarian candidate can’t win, because it’s obvious that the Republican candidate can’t win, either.

    Chuck Bartowski (bc1c71)

  49. Don’t underestimate the power of the female vote in this election either. Any woman running against any man will have a very real advantage. I saw this in the primary in down ballot races and I will leave it at that.

    Patterico

    I suppose Cruz would have had a battle ahead of him, but what the GOP has needed for a long time was someone who isn’t acting like they are ashamed of the conservative point of view, and actually want to explain it to people. Instead of ducking their head and explaining they are really pretty much a democrat who is more responsible or something.

    Hillary is a woman, nominally, and even just standing there and letting Trump’s attacks sail by makes her look tough (while a man would look weak doing the exact same thing), but she is especially unlikable. The GOP was given a gift when the democrats nominated her.

    Dustin (ba94b2)

  50. No, I left California decades ago.

    As far as impeachment is concerned republicans will be happy to impeach Trump and the democrats will gleefully join them, but there is no way under the sun the modern progressive democrats will ever impeach a democrat – no matter how large their offenses against the republic way – no way.

    crazy (d3b449)

  51. Dear Trump supporters
    Why can you not understand that some of us think Trump would be a horrible president? That he might well blunder us into a war? And that he is quite ready to politicize and weaponize the federal bureaucracy as much as she would, the only difference being the victims? That we would advance on the road to big government under him?

    Nor, frankly, do I understand this new meme I have been seeing that Hillary=nuclear war. Especially given that the main principle of Clinton/Obama foreign policy for the last eight years has been talk loudly and carry a very small stick.

    Kishnevi (e50dc8)

  52. The Democrats won’t impeach Trump. He’s one of them. And he’ll do their bidding.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  53. Yes, the same Republicans caving to, and justifying every atrocity of, Trump now — they will certainly vote to impeach him if he is elected! This is very realistic!!

    Patterico (186129)

  54. Nor, frankly, do I understand this new meme I have been seeing that Hillary=nuclear war. Especially given that the main principle of Clinton/Obama foreign policy for the last eight years has been talk loudly and carry a very small stick.

    Kishnevi

    Exactly. I thought Hillary was bad because she failed to use the military when she should have (although she wasn’t the commander in chief and this is Obama’s fault).

    It’s Trump who has openly mused about nuclear war. And I really do think he would consider doing it if he found an excuse. America wouldn’t be as safe after a few years of Trump. Hillary is quite bad, but this bed wetting about how scary she is while pretending there’s no serious concern for Trump is just more tiresome partisan hackery. And again, it’s pointless.

    Dustin (ba94b2)

  55. Patterico, I appreciate the forum you provide and the quality of the debate you foster. This article may provide a few thoughts you’d find interesting.

    crazy (d3b449)

  56. Okay, I’ll follow up with an email.

    Colonel Haiku (7967f2)

  57. Don’t come crying to me about socialism. This is your doing, not mine. I’m old enough it doesn’t matter — socialism will work out just fine. Sure, it will all fall apart after I’m dead, but I can’t be bothered any more to try to keep the lemmings from the cliff.

    Kevin M (25bbee) — 10/19/2016 @ 11:37 am

    It’s my doing for standing with Senat9r Cruz?

    What are you smoking?

    NJRob (98c0fb)

  58. Trump up 1% in IBD poll today. Guess it depends on who is polled.

    ProLifer (df82bb)

  59. I guess you missed the news about house and senate republicans unendorsing Trump and trying to save themselves. Those are the ones who would dump him as fast as their predecessors dumped Nixon after he was reelected in a landslide.

    crazy (d3b449)

  60. Don’t underestimate the power of the female vote in this election either. Any woman running against any man will have a very real advantage. I saw this in the primary in down ballot races and I will leave it at that.

    Patterico (186129) — 10/19/2016 @ 12:39 pm

    Women are sexist and vote for other women because of their sex. Go figure.

    NJRob (98c0fb)

  61. From crazy’s link by Wayne Gruden:

    5) “We have to send the Republican party a message that a candidate like Trump is unacceptable.”

    Answer: You don’t have to. You want to, perhaps thinking that it will demonstrate moral courage and heroism. But the leadership of the Republican party already knew that Trump was the most unacceptable of all the choices we had. They fought tooth and nail against Trump in the primaries, and he won anyway.

    We do need to send a message because the GOP did not fight tooth and nail against Trump. They fought tooth and nail against Cruz and conservatism. They accepted Trump because they see him as the lesser of two evils compared to Cruz, the actual defender of conservatism.

    Gruden is right about many of the questions but his answer to this question is wrong. We do need to send a message to the GOP but the message isn’t that Republican policies are right. The message is that when the GOP sells out to a corrupt blowhard like Trump, it’s gone too far.

    DRJ (d18ca6)

  62. crazy,

    Thank you for the kind words.

    I do not remotely begin to trust Trump to carry out even a single policy he has proposed. You don’t understand how deep my distrust of him is.

    Patterico (186129)

  63. Pat, DRJ, I hope you’ll forgive me. Maybe all I’ve done, and I will forever rue the day, is convince you that refugees like me from Kali shouldn’t be allowed into Texas. When I vote for Trump I will puke so hard I’ll bring up blood. But I’ll vote for him because Hillary Clinton can not be President.

    Then I’ll vomit blood. And wake up on November 9th trying to figure out what I’m going to do next.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  64. Trump would be up 16% tomorrow if the networks and the rest of the MSM covered the Creamer scandal or any one of the dozens of other scandals revealed by Wikileaks. Instead, the MSM, now including this blog, finds polls to be the number one story.

    ProLifer (20f0c1)

  65. “13. Now, since it is obvious that Trumpism and Republicanism cannot coexist in the same party, how do we encourage them to go find their own meeting hall?”

    You haven’t looked at the pictures of any of the Trump rallies, have you? YTry it. Take a look, and then try to figure out just who of pro-Trumpers or neverTrumpers is going to need their own meeting hall.

    fred-2 (ce04f3)

  66. “11. Clinton will be the first candidate to win in a landslide and not have a mandate.”
    Do you guys ever get embarassed by hearing the words coming out of your mouth?
    The President doesn’t need a “mandate”. The President only needs to be sworn in. Then they can sign bills, veto bills, and make Executive Orders. The word “mandate” appears nowhere in the Constitution.

    fred-2 (ce04f3)

  67. @fred-2:The President doesn’t need a “mandate”. The President only needs to be sworn in. Then they can sign bills, veto bills, and make Executive Orders. The word “mandate” appears nowhere in the Constitution.

    A “mandate” is something applied by the media to the candidates they favor.

    The day after Bush was sworn in for 2004, the media was already calling him a lame duck with no mandate.

    Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1)

  68. Bernie Sanders can tell you how accurate a measure of voting results can be obtained from rally attendance.

    Seriously, I have voted in every state and national election since 1978.
    I’ve never been to a political rally.

    Kishnevi (e50dc8)

  69. “14. Perhaps we need to screen GOP candidates before they can run for out party’s nominations”
    We did. Trump won. All the other 16 didn’t.

    “51. Dear Trump supporters
    Why can you not understand that some of us think Trump would be a horrible president?”
    Actually, we understand that some of you think that. So what?
    Some of us think that Trump would be a better president.
    In fact, looking at things, _more_ Republicans like Trump than hate Trump. So how do you come up with the idea that the minority should beat the majority?

    Since there are vastly more pro-Trump Republicans than anti-Trump Republicans, why is it that the anti_Trump Republicans should prevail?

    Looks to me like you neverTrumpers are just having a hissy-fit because you didn’t get your way.

    fred-2 (ce04f3)

  70. “23. But we understand that Hillary is much, much worse.
    No, she is just much much different. It’s like comparing rotten fruit and rotten meat. Which would you rather eat?”

    Read Z-man’s post today (“Pink Slate”). It’s like comparing chemotherapy and cancer. I guess True Principles would have you rejecting chemo because you don’t want your hair to fall out.

    “37. The GOP was on the verge of a truly great opportunity. Hillary vs Rubio/Walker/Cruz would have been…”
    Godzilla vs. Bambi.

    Notwithstanding that it wouldn’t have been Hillary vs. Rubio/Walker/Cruz.
    It would have Hillary vs. Jeb Bush.

    fred-2 (ce04f3)

  71. If I don’t bleed out after all the puking of blood.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=22&v=xMMceEx72sE

    Navy Carrier Squadrons “Move Along”

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  72. So how do you come up with the idea that the minority should beat the majority?

    fred-2 (ce04f3) — 10/19/2016 @ 1:56 pm

    It happened in the primaries. Trump didn’t get a majority vote. But that’s okay with you because TRUMP.

    Patrick Henry, the 2nd (dd9551)

  73. Trump would be up 16% tomorrow if the networks and the rest of the MSM covered the Creamer scandal or any one of the dozens of other scandals revealed by Wikileaks. Instead, the MSM, now including this blog, finds polls to be the number one story.

    ProLifer (20f0c1) — 10/19/2016 @ 1:34 pm

    Great. Trump would be winning, if the world as it exists, didn’t exist. Nice to know. But here’s a thought. If the world as it exists, didn’t exist, Trump wouldn’t be the Republican standard bearer.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  74. Fred, for one thing, this election is not limited to Republicans.
    Do a majority of Americans think Trump would be a good President?
    No.

    I am not responsible for anyone’s vote but my own. And I will give it only to a person with at least a modicum of integrity who will work for principles I share. Even if no one else in the country did so.

    One day, I will stand before the Master of the Universe. I do not intend to give Him the need to ask of me why I abandoned my responsibilities to Him and to my fellow Americans to vote for someone patently unfit for office simply because the other candidate was equally unfit.

    On both counts that rules out both Trump and Hillary.

    Kishnevi (e50dc8)

  75. Trump’s going to get wiped out.
    The latest poll has that Evan Mc-something guy winning Utah, with Trump in second place, only three points ahead of illary.

    To quote Charlie Sheen, “Losing!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  76. I can understand that a person of good conscience might reluctantly vote for the GOP nominee because the Dem nominee is so awful.
    I can understand that a person of good conscience might reluctantly vote for the Dem nominee because the GOP nominee is so afwul.
    I will never understand anyone who enthusiastically votes for either of those two candidates.

    JVW (6e49ce)

  77. “The PRRI poll is an outlier for showing quite so large a gender gap, however. In the table below, I’ve compiled the gender split from all national polls I could find so far in October.”

    — Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

    Colonel Haiku (7967f2)

  78. “The PRRI poll is an outlier for showing quite so large a gender gap, however. In the table below, I’ve compiled the gender split from all national polls I could find so far in October.”

    — Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/

    Colonel Haiku (7967f2)

  79. Whoops

    Colonel Haiku (7967f2)

  80. Patterico, Believe it or not I share your distrust of Trump.

    Where I believe we disagree is over the necessity of preventing the Alinsky-crats from controlling the levers of power the presidency provides even before the faithless executive abuses them. There is no good choice on the ballot and no good choice for the country. Trump’s America will probably be a lot like Bubba’s America, but Clinton’s America will be more like Venezuela. FWIW, that’s what informs my unpalatable choice. We’re fighting the same fight I wish we could fight it together.

    crazy (d3b449)

  81. Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 10/19/2016 @ 2:16 pm

    The latest poll has that Evan Mc-something guy winning Utah, with Trump in second place, only three points ahead of illary.

    This is not going to work – just carrying Utah.

    Sammy Finkelman (643dcd)

  82. Nate Silver’s an excellent prognosticator, however:

    Silver’s article is dated the 11th and this poll information is dated October 12-17.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  83. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-aircraft-carrier-commentary-idUSKCN12J1L2

    That’s about to change. Perhaps within as little as two weeks, its SU-33 and MiG-29 jets will be slamming ordinance into downtown Aleppo and other parts of Syria.

    But Syria and Russia started a short unilateral ceasefire in aleppo.

    That has to be for the debate. Putin doesn’t ant any atrocity happening just right now.

    Later, he will try to make it look like war can break beteen the United states and Russia if Hillary is elected.

    Sammy Finkelman (643dcd)

  84. It’s not only Wikileaks. Putin can alaso try to influence the election by saber rattling.

    Sammy Finkelman (643dcd)

  85. http://www.dw.com/en/russia-to-extend-aleppo-ceasefire-to-11-hours/a-36092726

    A Russian general has said that Thursday’s ceasefire to allow aid into Syria’s Aleppo will run for 11 hours, not the eight initially planned. Moscow and Damascus say that their air forces have already halted operations. …

    Russia also said that Russian and Syrian air forces had stopped bombing Aleppo on Tuesday, ahead of the planned ceasefire: “Since 10 a.m. yesterday in the area of Aleppo air strikes by Russian and Syrian forces have completely ceased. Russian and Syrian planes are not getting closer than 10 kilometers to the city,” said Rudskoi.

    They don’t want any aid to get in, but they want to help Trump during the debate.

    This ceasefire is purely because of the debate.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-aleppo-talks-idUSKCN12J1MB?il=0

    Sammy Finkelman (643dcd)

  86. “Since there are vastly more pro-Trump Republicans than anti-Trump Republicans, why is it that the anti_Trump Republicans should prevail?

    Looks to me like you neverTrumpers are just having a hissy-fit because you didn’t get your way.”

    – fred-2

    Ironic. What will we call it when the Trumpkins are wailing and gnashing their teeth by 5:00pm on November 8th?

    Leviticus (efada1)

  87. Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1) — 10/19/2016 @ 12:19 pm

    Anyone else notice that when Wikileaks was just endangering intelligence operations, no one could do anything, but now that it’s impacting the election all of a sudden they can cut off Assange’s internet access?

    it’s also an example of Obama;s fecklessness and penchant for “proportional” symbolic actions.

    Cutting off Julian Assange’s internet access till after the election will do nothing to stop publication of the leaks. They’re coming from Russia, after all. Wikileaks is decentralized. None of thhis was beinbg run out of the Ecuadorian embassy in London.

    And I think Kerry is telling the truth – he didn’t personally raise the issue with Ecuador.

    Sammy Finkelman (643dcd)

  88. Since there are vastly more pro-Trump Republicans than anti-Trump Republicans

    This is what Trumpkins tell eachother for some reason. Truth is that Trump had the weakest primary win of anyone we’ve seen in generations. He didn’t seal the deal until very late. Had the delegates been free to vote their conscience he wouldn’t have been the nominee. A majority of the party voted for someone else and Trump couldn’t have won a runoff election.

    So this ‘vastly more pro trump republicans’ is untrue, even before we talk about democrats crossing over to give the thing to Hillary.

    Dustin (ba94b2)

  89. Ironic. What will we call it when the Trumpkins are wailing and gnashing their teeth by 5:00pm on November 8th?
    Leviticus (efada1) — 10/19/2016 @ 2:40 pm

    5pm Eastern time, they will still be believing they’re going to win 37 states or more.
    5pm Pacific time, they will still be believing that, despite their massive Eastern Time defeats, they can still win with the Central and Mountain states.
    5pm Hawaii time, they’ll all be drunk, and lighting their couches on fire on their front porches because not even their couches would vote for their flea-bitten dog.

    As Gordon Gecko would say, Hillary is a dog and Trump is a dog with fleas.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  90. #82 Sammy,

    What in God’s name is not going to work? Losing Utah?
    Absolutely.
    That’s why Trump’s such a terrible candidate.
    He can’t even win Utah against a guy nobody had heard of until last week.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  91. The only reason to vote for Trump, is to vote against the D’s and Hillary. That is not enough to win the election.

    What Steve said in #73:

    Trump would be up 16% tomorrow if the networks and the rest of the MSM covered the Creamer scandal or any one of the dozens of other scandals revealed by Wikileaks. Instead, the MSM, now including this blog, finds polls to be the number one story.

    ProLifer (20f0c1) — 10/19/2016 @ 1:34 pm

    Great. Trump would be winning, if the world as it exists, didn’t exist. Nice to know. But here’s a thought. If the world as it exists, didn’t exist, Trump wouldn’t be the Republican standard bearer.

    Steve57 (0b1dac) — 10/19/2016 @ 2:07 pmTrump would be up 16% tomorrow if the networks and the rest of the MSM covered the Creamer scandal or any one of the dozens of other scandals revealed by Wikileaks. Instead, the MSM, now including this blog, finds polls to be the number one story.

    ProLifer (20f0c1) — 10/19/2016 @ 1:34 pm

    Great. Trump would be winning, if the world as it exists, didn’t exist. Nice to know. But here’s a thought. If the world as it exists, didn’t exist, Trump wouldn’t be the Republican standard bearer.

    steve57 (0b1dac) — 10/19/2016 @ 2:07 pm

    Steven Malynn (5c1dae)

  92. pardon my messing up the qquotes

    Steven Malynn (5c1dae)

  93. Trump is basically polling between 36% – 42ish% in these national polls, yet his biggest sycophants report to us from Fantasy Land that it’s still better than any other Republican would have done. (LOL)

    At least Romney got 47.2% of the vote.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  94. Dustin,

    It’s Trump who has openly mused about nuclear war.

    We just gave nuclear weapons to Iran. North Korea has developed nuclear warheads small enough to be placed on a missile, and Pakistan is still Pakistan. Anyone who isn’t thinking seriously about nuclear war, let alone simply musing about it, hasn’t been paying attention.

    Knowing what you know about jihadists and the ISIS “Caliphate”, can you name one reason they might hesitate to employ such a weapon? Ditto the Iranians. The Iranians used adolescent boys as human mine sweepers in their war with Iraq. These people see the world very differently than we do. It is hubris to imagine that we share any common goal with these regimes. You’d have to be as stupid as Kerry to think otherwise.

    BobStewartatHome (d5f498)

  95. It’s just too severe to blame your favorite conservative blogs.

    The projection is also interesting. The GOP nominated him in secret ballots.

    I was not a fan but it was interesting to watch how the GOP had no clue why people were angry. NONE of the other candidates ever addressed the issues he raised. I have had people at Ricochet, another bastion of NeverTrump try to tell me that is not true.

    They are referring to navel gazing at think tanks, not real candidates who were willing to defy the donor class.

    You and Patrick and The Weekly Standard and a few others (NR seems to be having second thoughts) are hoping for a big win by Hillary to show how smart you are.

    They call that “Virtue Signaling.”

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  96. NONE of the other candidates ever addressed the issues he raised.

    That right there, folks, is what you call an outright and blatant lie.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  97. “They call that “Virtue Signaling.””

    – Mike K

    Who’s “they”?

    Leviticus (efada1)

  98. That right there, folks, is what you call an outright and blatant lie.

    Prove it. You have this thing called “Google.” Go for it.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  99. Nobody in his or her right mind is hoping for a big win by either of these a**holes. In fact, some of us remain unwilling to vote for either of them! You, apparently, are willing to vote for Trump. Good for you. Enjoy.

    Leviticus (efada1)

  100. so the internals, the poll assumes an 8 point democratic advantage, which is reasonable, however the clinton/trump differential is 11%

    narciso (d1f714)

  101. I’ve done a careful review of the PRRI website and can see that Patterico did some EXTRAORDINARY vetting of this fine pollster. Why, the organization has a track record 100 years long and a 0% margin of error! No only that, but it discloses ALL OF its data — the precise questions asked, the replies, the nature of the sample and its methods of verification — total transparency. And if you do a bit of Google research on its seven-member team, you won’t find a trace of political bias. If anything, they likely lean to the right. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if this seasoned crew is made up of rock-ribbed republican Christian conservatives who, despite their deeply-held convictions, are simple dedicated to presenting the untainted statiscal Truth to the American people.

    ProLifer (20f0c1)

  102. NONE of the other candidates ever addressed the issues Donald Trump raised – issues like the size of Donald Trump’s penis! Can you believe it?!

    (Well, I guess you could point out that Rubio might have addressed that issue – but then you’re undermining your own point).

    Leviticus (efada1)

  103. an 11% female, male margin, does that seem reasonable

    narciso (d1f714)

  104. those are just some out of the envelope calculations, but whatever floats your boat,

    narciso (d1f714)

  105. Your glee is an interesting example of the weird obsession of Trump haters people who see icebergs right f***ing dead ahead; It’s right there this year.

    …Interesting.

    Said…

    Mike K (90dfdc) — 10/19/2016 @ 9:43 am

    …the captain of the Titanic.

    WTFO?!

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  106. also 12% independents over republicans, in some other aspects, the sample is lopsided another way, you can see why silver found it a little odd,

    narciso (d1f714)

  107. Mike K,
    We have this little thing called Patterico’s Pontifications Archives. Your lie was already proven a lie months ago. It’s there in the archives of Patterico’s Pontifications.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  108. The Titanic might not be as lost as you think.

    people who see icebergs right f***ing dead ahead; It’s right there this year.

    …Interesting.

    Steve57 you always seemed sensible to me. I think it pathological to wish for a Hillary win to make some sort of juvenile point. Good luck.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  109. I think it’s more like ulysses men lashed to the sails,

    narciso (d1f714)

  110. “OPERATIVES WITH BYLINES: Journalist emails Jennifer Palmieri to give her a “heads up” on coming sex scandal story. “I need to give you a heads up on something Menendez-related that will affect your new boss so you have time to put together a plan for it. . . . Won’t be breaking news until next week, but likely to be big enough that you’ll want to plan for it in advance. And good luck with today.”

    https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/246825/

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  111. “Trump’s America will probably be a lot like Bubba’s America, but HRClinton’s America will be more like Venezuela.” HRC’s era will be like Mao’s Cultural Revolution, with lots of shaming, denouncing, enforced political orthodoxy, and misallocation of resources, but hopefully without the executions and starving.

    gp (0c542c)

  112. really this is a nigel tufnel poll, and they are partnered with the atlantic, the folks who had some trouble with high school biology some time back,

    narciso (d1f714)

  113. Raise issues? Address issues? That’s not The Art Of The Deal. I found out what 13.6 million numbnuts wanted to be pandered on and I pandered like a Yokohama pimp when the fleet is in port.

    Donald J. Trump @The Real nk (dbc370)

  114. And I think it pathological to lyingly claim Steve57 is wishing for a Hillary win. Only scum would lie like that.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  115. Want to hear a song?

    I beg your pardon, I never promised you a rose garden
    Excuse me. Excuse me. Excuse me. I promise you three rose gardens. And an apple orchard. With a wall around them.
    I could sing you a tune and promise you the Moon
    And the stars. And the universes they say are on the other side of black holes.
    But if that’s what it takes to hold you
    You’re darn tooting I’m going to do it.
    I’d just as soon let you go.
    Are you kidding me? No way I’d let you go. Only a loser would blow the deal like that. I promise. I promise. I promise.

    Donald J. Trump @The Real nk (dbc370)

  116. Don’t see PRRI/Brookings listed in Silver’s poll ratings, which is interesting. I did happen to see IBD/TIPP in there , with a rating of A-. They have Trump +1 going into tonight’s debate.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  117. Interesting reading to get a feel for accuracy. Hadn’t thought there were even close to that many polling outfits.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  118. because the sample is skewered, those were just some initial calculations, I did,

    narciso (d1f714)

  119. 116. Hitchcock, you are one sorry-assed sonuvagun example of a “Christian”.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  120. I was not a fan but it was interesting to watch how the GOP had no clue why people were angry. NONE of the other candidates ever addressed the issues he raised. I have had people at Ricochet, another bastion of NeverTrump try to tell me that is not true.

    Name one issue that Trump addressed that the others did not.

    The only one I can think of is “let’s pass some giant tariffs!!!” and that’s because that’s a stupid issue that a Republican should never raise.

    You got anything else?

    Patterico (bcf524)

  121. Haiku, when even the moderators call you out for lying, it doesn’t help when you try to cover for other people’s lies.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  122. You got anything else?

    Illegal immigration, building a wall.

    Muslim immigration and vetting immigrants from dangerous zones.

    There are more.

    Just show me where they addressed them.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  123. Illegal immigration, building a wall.

    Video: Ted Cruz Was Talking About a Wall YEARS Before Trump:

    https://patterico.com/2016/02/07/video-ted-cruz-was-talking-about-a-wall-years-before-trump/

    Patterico (bcf524)

  124. Muslim immigration and vetting immigrants from dangerous zones.

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/17/politics/ted-cruz-refugees-syria/

    The Texas senator instead thinks that Muslims fleeing the Syrian civil war should be repopulated to other Muslim countries. But the Christian population, he believes, has nowhere else to go, and Cruz batted away concerns by telling reporters in Myrtle Beach on Sunday that Christians posed “no meaningful risk” to national security.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  125. yes, but mcturtle, basically snuffed out his chances, and paul singer prevented him from gathering support among even those supposedly sympathetic members of the caucus,

    narciso (d1f714)

  126. “The PRRI poll is an outlier for showing quite so large a gender gap, however. In the table below, I’ve compiled the gender split from all national polls I could find so far in October.”

    — Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/

    If only I had pointed out that the gender gap in PRRI was an outlier in the post.

    Guess I was just too busy hating on Hillary.

    Oh, wait! I did!

    Because I am honest. And thorough.

    You just missed it in your rush to scream at me.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  127. And I think it pathological to lyingly claim Steve57 is wishing for a Hillary win. Only scum would lie like that.

    What would you call it ?

    When I vote for Trump I will puke so hard I’ll bring up blood. But I’ll vote for him because Hillary Clinton can not be President.

    Fair enough. What about this ?

    Your lie was already proven a lie months ago. It’s there in the archives of Patterico’s Pontifications.

    Nice dodge.

    I am distressed at the hatred I see from what ought to be my side. Maybe Steve was not the one exhilarated at a TRump disaster. I think Patrick is and some others. Maybe not Steve. Sorry Steve.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  128. But what about the size of Trump’s penis?? Who else addressed *that* critical issue?

    Leviticus (b72605)

  129. And, Mike K, neither Patterico nor I, nor most of the other NeverTrumpers (Patterico has said he’s not a NeverTrumper, but I am a NeverTrumper) are hoping for a Hillary win. But it’s going to happen unless she just keels over. This is the final stretch of the Belmont, and Secretariat has just rounded the corner. Accusing those who say Secretariat will win of hoping for Secretariat’s win is lacking in integrity.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  130. Nice dodge? Does that mean you refuse to do your own damn research? I thought you had a very scientific career, full of research capabilities, like scrolling down the page to see that what I said was exactly correct. Looks like a truck driver is more knowledgeable about political facts than a white-collar professional.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  131. I know you think him the modern equivalent of Antiochus, but really that’s a little overbroad,

    narciso (d1f714)

  132. Just show me where they addressed them.

    I just did.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  133. If only I had pointed out that the gender gap in PRRI was an outlier in the post.

    Guess I was just too busy hating on Hillary.

    Oh, wait! I did!

    Because I am honest. And thorough.

    You just missed it in your rush to scream at me.

    Patterico (bcf524) — 10/19/2016 @ 5:34 pm

    Yes, you did and I also included the link to Silver’s broader analysis. So there was screaming involved? I guess I missed it. I followed up with the link to Silver’s ratings. Interesting stuff.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  134. a poll that assumes 11% red queen support, I did the calculations by hand, and other outliers really is statistical malpractice,

    narciso (d1f714)

  135. Take a chill pill, Hitchcock. I know you can’t be the kind of a*hole you seem to want to prove you can be.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  136. So there was screaming involved?

    No. Sorry.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  137. Cruz and other Republicans cooked the immigration lunch and Trump ate it. And like the harpies who tormented King Phineus in the Argossy — eating what they could and befouling the rest — he was so extreme that he caused backlash even among the strongest pro-border security, anti-illegal immigration and anti-Muslim terrorism conservatives.

    nk (dbc370)

  138. Haiku, I call ’em like I see ’em. And I have never concerned myself with “glory among men” (look it up).

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  139. let the candidate whose mob jeered servicemen and law enforcement win, who let a convicted swindler, who was part of two other public policy scams, obamacare and the rhodes road show, pass,

    narciso (d1f714)

  140. Or you could let the candidate whose mob jeers Jews and victims of sex crimes win. (That sentence there could point to Trump or Clinton, since both of their mobs do that.)

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  141. Mike, there is an iceberg. I’m not making this up.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  142. http://s132.photobucket.com/user/compton_020/media/Marine%20Corps/DrillInstructors.jpg.html

    These are the nice gentlemen who introduced me to the wonderful world of naval aviation. To whom do I have the pleasure of speaking with?

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  143. Navel aviation? Is that where if you master Buddhist meditation you can levitate?

    nk (dbc370)

  144. Oorah
    Semper Fi
    One shot, one kill, sir
    0311
    Paradise Island

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  145. Looks like a truck driver is more knowledgeable about political facts than a white-collar professional.

    It’s pretty depressing to see the nastiness coming from what should be my side. I’ve been posting at Chicagoboyz all year on what I think and why.

    I suggested you find an example of the GOP candidates supporting one of the issues that got Trump the nomination.

    What do I get in return?

    Does that mean you refuse to do your own damn research?

    I’ve done it for years and you seem not to understand simple matters.

    Time to move on.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  146. Har har har. You funny man, nk.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  147. And you’re still ignoring the Patterico link I talked about that Patterico posted in this very thread. That shows intellectual dishonesty on your part. Please do move on dot org.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  148. Mike, there is an iceberg. I’m not making this up.

    Maybe there is. I’m making plans to cope. One of them is moving out of California which I will do by early 2017.

    I am also planning to have a propane tank and a propane powered generator.

    I went through this with Carter in the 1970s. Then Reagan came along. The GOPe hated Reagan. Remember ?

    I’m not saying Trump is Reagan but this is not my first rodeo.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  149. Trump is to Reagan as Clinton is to Reagan.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  150. I could have gone with “Your professors at Dental School?” for drill instructors, but I thought navel aviation worked better.

    nk (dbc370)

  151. That shows intellectual dishonesty on your part. Please do move on dot org.

    Thank you, I will. After 10 years, I will.

    Goodbye. I haven’t been accused of such things since I quit posting on leftist blogs.

    Your company does not become you.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  152. Trump is as Conservative as Clinton. Just as honest as Hillary and just as well-mannered toward women as Bill.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  153. I suggested you find an example of the GOP candidates supporting one of the issues that got Trump the nomination.

    What do I get in return?

    An answer.

    You got an answer from the blog host. Which you have ignored, responding only to a commenter.

    I would appreciate it if you responded to my answer. I took the time to look it up and answer your question. I have not been rude to you.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  154. John Hitchcock, it’s never been my point or my my intention to pretend I’m the only one who served or was someone special. Actually, if you go back through my comments, I’ve gone to great lengths to prove I’m nobody special. I am Joe average, who pushed paper. And proud of it.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  155. Steve57, you declared it was the Corps that got you into flight. I was showing Esprits de Corps. Starting with cheering you.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  156. This shit is almost over and he has scored zero points. Where is Dandy Don? Turn out the lights, the party’s over…

    Patterico (bcf524)

  157. And trust me, 0311 is nothing to cheer about on its own.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  158. You suck and you suck hard, Hitchcock.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  159. Patterico (bcf524)

  160. She should not show off those teeth like that

    Patterico (bcf524)

  161. I did not watch the VP debate. Was it this bad?

    Patterico (bcf524)

  162. Her teeth are really, really bad

    Patterico (bcf524)

  163. John, it was the Corps that checked me out, weighed and measured me, and let me pass. But I have to give my Coastie Radioman Senior Chief dad his due. I already knew that I’d make the cut, because I was my father’s son. I remember the first day I arrived at AOCS. It was an evening flight. The Petty Officer of the Watch looked at me and said, “You’ll be OK.” The next morning I met my DI. And I was OK. My dad had gotten me ready for that moment. So, thanks, dad.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  164. That’s what years of chewing on rugs will do to teeth, I’d guess, Patterico.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  165. well there was an interruptathon on the part of clem:

    https://twitter.com/AaronWorthing/status/788930404883525632?lang=en

    narciso (d1f714)

  166. And trust me, 0311 is nothing to cheer about on its own.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd) — 10/19/2016 @ 7:13 pm

    I couldn’t do it. I have flat feet. I can swim, though. But the whole point was to use my head so I wouldn’t have to swim.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  167. Speaking of swimming, 35 years ago, I was able to swim this far and further. Just not anywhere near as quickly.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjG-w2ckvqE

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  168. Scum does rise and stay on the top.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  169. Not directed at you, Steve, my brother.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  170. Oh my God they’re making a huge thing about this accepting the results thing. I guess I’m out of step on this.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  171. Dems steal elections ALL THE TIME. Why pre-agree this one wasn’t stolen??

    Patterico (bcf524)

  172. LBJ stole his first Senate election.

    JFK stole 1960.

    Gore tried to steal 2000.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  173. I can’t fucking believe I agree with the Trump flacks on CNN. But I do.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  174. Patterico, you left this thread open when you want the other thread.

    John Hitchcock (deb8cd)

  175. press will find squirrels wherever they can get them,

    narciso (d1f714)

  176. Oh shit I thought I was in the debate thread.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  177. You remember that post of yours about ethos? The credibility of the proponent? When you say it, it’s sensible. When Trump says it, he sounds like a ridiculous whiny loser.

    nk (dbc370)

  178. @144 Steve57

    Isn’t the biggest iceberg lie, “Just the tip?”

    Pinandpuller (151723)

  179. it seems it’s not an uncommon point of view,

    https://twitter.com/AaronWorthing/status/788931968608198656?lang=en

    narciso (d1f714)

  180. I suggested you find an example of the GOP candidates supporting one of the issues that got Trump the nomination.

    What do I get in return?

    An answer.

    You got an answer from the blog host. Which you have ignored, responding only to a commenter.

    Patrick, I came back for a minute. You are correct on Cruz and vetting refugees. The other comment about a wall was from 2012 and the Senate race.

    You get one and lose one.

    Sorry to see the nastiness. I have always tried to be polite. I can’t recall calling someone a liar who was not lying.

    Be well. I’ll not see you again.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  181. LBJ stole his first Senate election.
    JFK stole 1960.
    Bush stole 2000.
    Willie Mays Hayes stole home.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  182. The other comment about a wall was from 2012 and the Senate race.

    You get one and lose one.

    Cruz talked about a wall during this campaign too. But Trump acted as if he was copying Trump. The point of my post is that Trump actually copied Cruz.

    I can’t control whether you leave. But let’s be clear. I did not call you dishonest. I was not rude to you. Ever.

    Patterico (bcf524)

  183. Bush didn’t steal the 2000 election; he won it, fair and square.
    Well, the electoral college, anyway.

    Evan3457 (79ccc1)

  184. an interesting filip, before the election, they thought manbearpig would win the electoral vote, and bush the popular vote, then they switched,

    narciso (d1f714)

  185. Coronello @172,no problem. I’d like to think we could walk into the bar, check our guns, be brutally honest. And then get our guns back from the bartender and still walk out as friends.

    This actually happens across large parts of the west and Alaska, in case anyone from NYC or SF wants to chime in and says it’s unpossible. Fair warning; not everyone you meet is sweetness and light, do NOT steal a deer out the back of a pick up in Montana as the the hunter will demand to know who exactly did it, which is just one reason I’m not a fan of stopping off at bars, diners, or truck stops before processing the animal into steaks, roasts, and sausage. Besides the risk of spoilage, as anyone who hunted deer in the A zone of Kali can tell you about (archery season starts in July, for crying out loud; you know how fast meat spoils in July on the central coast?). But given the fact that there are enough guns and ammo locked in the pick ups, SUVs, and in my case the ’88 Mustang 5.0 LX convertible (in my opinion the finest hunting vehicle ever made, although lacking in ground clearance but if you know how to drive, not a problem) in the parking lots to outfit the Mexican army for a dove hunt, it’s pretty understandable that a) almost nobody takes somebody else’s deer and b) if they do, they’re hauling tail out of town, and c) given the availability of artillery, kind of incredible nobody gets killed over it.

    So even if you had directed something at me, I have been over it since I before I was twelve. I would thank you for it, even if you were wrong. I’d at least consider you might be right, and if you were right or wrong, I needed to hear it. So fire away, coronello, and don’t fret about whether or not I’m going to take it wrong.
    S

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  186. Now, since it is obvious that Trumpism and Republicanism cannot coexist in the same party, how do we encourage them to go find their own meeting hall?

    Kevin M (25bbee) — 10/19/2016 @ 10:27 am

    You haven’t looked at the pictures of any of the Trump rallies, have you? YTry it. Take a look, and then try to figure out just who of pro-Trumpers or neverTrumpers is going to need their own meeting hall.

    fred-2 (ce04f3) — 10/19/2016 @ 1:43 pm

    No conservative Republican nominee will ever get elected without persuading probably at least 90% of the Trumpers (those who supported him from the start) to get behind him/her.

    A RINO can win without solid Trumper support, because they can attract the RINO NeverTrumpers and more middle of the road squishy swing voters.

    So, ironically, if the “conservative” NeverTrumpers who reject Trump cause he’s not conservative enough get their wish for Trumpers to leave the GOP, then they can look forward to getting behind RINO nominees or lose with a conservative nominee for the rest of their days.

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  187. Even if you’re right, have you see how old they are? Will they even be around for the mid-term election?

    But I don’t think you’re right. Those are the people who vote for Buchanan and Duke, not Bush, Romney, McCain or some Mexican named Cruz.

    nk (dbc370)

  188. But I don’t think you’re right. Those are the people who vote for Buchanan and Duke, not Bush, Romney, McCain or some Mexican named Cruz.

    nk (dbc370) — 10/20/2016 @ 7:03 am

    I’m not sure what I’m not right about. Which of those candidates won the general election without Trumper votes?

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  189. Bush. The Trumpers voted for Pat Buchanan or Ron Paul or Lyndon LaRouche or wrote in Idi Amin Baba or never made it to the polls.

    nk (dbc370)

  190. Bush. The Trumpers voted for Pat Buchanan or Ron Paul or Lyndon LaRouche or wrote in Idi Amin Baba or never made it to the polls.

    nk (dbc370) — 10/20/2016 @ 7:34 am

    What conservative principles did Bush run on?

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  191. What conservative principles did Bush run on?

    And there you have it. Why Trumpers are the fringe of the GOP and they might as well be trimmed off and told to start their own party. They’re not a reliable voting bloc in the first place, and pandering to them will cost the GOP more center-right votes than Trumper votes are worth.

    nk (dbc370)

  192. And there you have it. Why Trumpers are the fringe of the GOP and they might as well be trimmed off and told to start their own party. They’re not a reliable voting bloc in the first place, and pandering to them will cost the GOP more center-right votes than Trumper votes are worth.

    nk (dbc370) — 10/20/2016 @ 8:47 am

    So you agree with my original premise. If we nominate a Cruz he can’t win.

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  193. No Trumper was going to vote for a guy named Cruz. That’s how Trump got the plurality. Trumpers are not “Cruz conservatives”. They’re something else. Wallace conservatives, to be charitable? And Cruz would have walked over Hillary without their help. So would have Walker, Rubio, Kasich, and even Jeb.

    nk (dbc370)

  194. Kasich and Jeb are RINO’s. You seem not to be able to remember what my premise is.

    The polls showed Cruz running about even with Clinton. Your statement that he would have walked over her is a counterfactual. If he beat her he would have needed a lot of the 13 million who voted for Trump.

    In any case Clinton was a really weak candidate. I’m talking about the future. You keep looking backwards.

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  195. Let’s see if Trump can beat Hillary with the 13 million who voted for Trump. 😉

    nk (dbc370)

  196. Holy guacamole! Jeb and Kasich are RINOs and a New York limousine liberal Democrat who opportunistically jumped into the Republican primary is a conservative Republican? Do you think Michael Bloomberg and Trudy Julie Annie are conservative Republicans too?

    nk (dbc370)

  197. Let’s see if Trump can beat Hillary with the 13 million who voted for Trump. 😉

    nk (dbc370) — 10/20/2016 @ 9:27 am

    Is there a logical connection to my point about future elections, or are you just spewing out random thoughts?

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  198. Holy guacamole! Jeb and Kasich are RINOs and a New York limousine liberal Democrat who opportunistically jumped into the Republican primary is a conservative Republican? Do you think Michael Bloomberg and Trudy Julie Annie are conservative Republicans too?

    nk (dbc370) — 10/20/2016 @ 9:32 am

    Is there a logical connection to my point about future elections, or are you just spewing out random thoughts?

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  199. I can’t see the future. From all available in the present, we don’t need and we don’t want Trumpers. All they did was totally f*** up this election.

    nk (dbc370)

  200. all available *evidence*

    nk (dbc370)

  201. I can’t see the future.

    nk (dbc370) — 10/20/2016 @ 9:37 am

    I expressed an opinion about the future. So you have no opinion about the future. You hate Trumpers. I understand. DNF may have been right about his perseveration theory.

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  202. Sigh.

    If Trump has 65 million votes on November 9, like Obama got in 2012, you will be right and Trumpers are a significant part of the Republican constituency.

    If, as I expect, he has 40 million votes, compared to Romney’s 61 million in 2012, I will be right and Trumpers are a net loss to the GOP and we are better off without them/

    And, on my part, I think you know you lost and you are trying to cling to relevancy and persuade people that you’re still worth something.

    nk (dbc370)

  203. November 9! Mark it on your calendar and we’ll revisit the issue. It’s only 20 days away.

    nk (dbc370)

  204. nk is right. If Trump gets fewer votes than Romney, we have an easy call to make over which coalition is better.

    Many Trumpkins seek an excuse to dismiss people you don’t agree with. That’s OK. But just because Gerald doesn’t agree with NK about Trump being a New York Values sort of guy doesn’t change what Trump is. Trump voted for Hillary, for God’s sake. Isn’t that supposed to be the worst sin imaginable? The only reason Trump isn’t a RINO is that he’s not a republican to begin with.

    Trumpkins bashing Jeb Bush as a RINO are hilarious. Jeb actually wasn’t that bad of a governor with some actual conservative work on his resume, but he was kinda squishy like all Bushes seem to be. Trump, like all New York democrats, thinks George W Bush was the worst president in American history, and had a bumper sticker campaign against Jeb because of Bush Derangement Syndrome, to the point where Trump calls for criminal charges against Dubya.

    And none of the people repeating the cries of Trump over Bush have noted that Trump adopted Jeb’s worst positions (such as Amnesty).

    How on earth do we build a coalition around nonsense like this? We can’t, and NK is right that on Nov 9 the numbers will bear that out.

    Dustin (ba94b2)

  205. nk (dbc370) — 10/20/2016 @ 9:56 am

    If Trump has 65 million votes on November 9, like Obama got in 2012, you will be right and Trumpers are a significant part of the Republican constituency.

    If, as I expect, he has 40 million votes, compared to Romney’s 61 million in 2012, I will be right and Trumpers are a net loss to the GOP and we are better off without them/

    It is logically impossible that a Republican candidate is better off not getting some people’s votes – unless there’s a large block if insane people who will be scrutinizing polling data to determine whether the candidate is attracting Trump voters and decide not to vote for the Republican on those grounds. There clearly are some people like that, but I’m not prepared to believe there’s a lot of them. Though one could get that impression hanging around this increasingly nutty place.

    And, on my part, I think you know you lost and you are trying to cling to relevancy and persuade people that you’re still worth something.

    I literally have no idea what your talking about. But that’s a good thing.

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  206. it’s the ouzo talking, gerald a, this was a very silly poll, graham chapman should have walked right in the middle of it,

    narciso (d1f714)

  207. #208
    what you’re talking about

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  208. Holy guacamole! Jeb and Kasich are RINOs and a New York limousine liberal Democrat who opportunistically jumped into the Republican primary is a conservative Republican? Do you think Michael Bloomberg and Trudy Julie Annie are conservative Republicans too?

    nk (dbc370) — 10/20/2016 @ 9:32 am

    Bloomberg was a RINO when he was still a Republican. Bloomberg is against sealing the border… like Jeb and Kasich. The border is, as many conservatives have recognized, a key line of demarcation between conservatives and RINO’s. He also stands up for the police in the face of racial politics over shootings. There’s a number of things he’s conservative on. Trump’s been a registered Republican most of his life and contributed to Romney in 2012.

    Gerald A (a48c32)

  209. I’ll say it in Trumpkin, so you can understand:

    Trump say stupid things like big dumbass.
    Dumbasses like hear stupid things, vote for Trump.
    Smart people not like hear stupid things, say Trump big dumbass, not vote for Trump.
    More dumbasses than smart people or more smart people than dumbasses?
    We find out after election.

    nk (dbc370)

  210. that is the joe biden school of argumentation, fire shotgun first, then open the front door, neither I nor rev or a host of others are trumpkins, we just like keep the focus on the main target, now this poll is as bad as sullivan’s journeys into human growth and development,

    narciso (d1f714)

  211. For non-Trumpkins:

    It doesn’t matter how big your tent is, if you invite neo-Nazis in you’re going to drive out a lot more people. Net loss.

    nk (dbc370)

  212. Gerald A, in some quarters, losing voters is preferable to winning elections.
    It’s referred to as “having principles.” Or, according to Roget’s Thesaurus it’s also called losing elections.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  213. It’s referred to as “having principles.” Or, according to Roget’s Thesaurus it’s also called losing elections.

    That’s rich! Trump, running against the weakest Democrat candidate ever, is looking at the largest defeat since Goldwater. and his supporters are lecturing on how to win elections.

    Chuck Bartowski (bc1c71)


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