Patterico's Pontifications

4/20/2016

Prediction: Ted Cruz Will Be President

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 6:46 am



Just offering a counterpoint to the conventional wisdom you will read today.

I believe Ted Cruz will be, not just the Republican nominee, but also our next President.

I don’t believe Trump will get to 1237, his expected good performance last night notwithstanding. Cruz will do OK in Pennsylvania because many delegates are unbound. He’ll do OK in California. And he’ll win Indiana — a state that many observers watching the numbers believe is critical for Trump to clinch the nomination outright.

Once Trump fails to clinch, it will be an ugly process, but Cruz will win out in the end. There is no white horse, with or without a horn on its head. There is just Ted Cruz, and he is the alternative the party will pick. I just don’t believe that the Sniveling Coward can win if he doesn’t take it on a first ballot.

The party will unify. Yes, the Sniveling Coward’s Twitter army will stomp off in a rage. A small minority of non-Twitterers will follow suit. But most Republicans will go with the nominee.

And the Cruz will beat Hillary.

Cruz is a fantastic spokesman for his — for our! — ideas. Hillary is a terrible spokesman for hers. The Dems will have their own set of disappointed voters in the Bernie army, and their lack of loyalty will sap her support as surely as Trump’s will sap Cruz’s.

In the end, Cruz will make a more convincing case.

And he will win.

So says Patterico, April 20, 2016. Write it down.

234 Responses to “Prediction: Ted Cruz Will Be President”

  1. Always trust content from Patterico.

    Mitch (bfd5cd)

  2. And if I’m wrong, let us never speak of it again!

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  3. From your lips to God’s ears.

    Bellerophon (77889d)

  4. My thoughts exactly! Of course, I am rarely right about anything.

    Rick Wahler (d0a346)

  5. Hillary is a terrible spokesman for hers. The Dems will have their own set of disappointed voters in the Bernie army, and their lack of loyalty will sap her support as surely as Trump’s will sap Cruz’s.

    Patterico you may be correct about everything else you wrote and I hope for the sake of The Republic you are, but democrats will unite behind the devil himself as long as there is a (D) after his name. And by they way, I believe there is!

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  6. If necessary, I will crawl on my hands and knees over broken Democrats in order to elect Ted Cruz.

    aunursa (be35b6)

  7. Bellerophon? Isn’t that the ship that sailed Napoleon into exile?

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  8. I’m not convinced. I agree that Trump is likely to fall just short of 1237 votes on the first ballot, fall below 1000 on the second, and below 800 on the third. But it doesn’t follow that Cruz will automatically be the alternative.

    No matter what anyone says now, there’s a very real possibility that the delegates will compromise on someone else. It may be Kasich, or Ryan (despite his recent rejection of this prospect — it’s not up to him, and if the offer is made it will be very difficult to turn down), or someone completely different. And I’m completely OK with that. Of course I may not like whomever emerges, but I reject the idea that coming second entitles one to the nomination, any more than coming first does.

    I also still think that Clinton will not be the D candidate in November. I don’t know when the indictment will come, but I’m more than 50% sure that it will come. And I think that the 0bamas intend to try to put Michelle in her place, as what buzzsawmonkey calls “the first First Lady lady parts president”; whether they succeed is anyone’s guess.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  9. He also defeated the Chimera, a beast with several different heads, by forcing it to choke on its own hot air.

    Bellerophon (77889d)

  10. I see, you were thinking Greek mythology while I was thinking Napoleonic history. Sorry, my mistake.

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  11. If Trump sweeps the Atlantic Coast next Tuesday, what then? That would put him over 1237, if my math serves.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  12. I still want to see a one on one debate between Cruz and Trump on foreign and domestic policy, with specifics. DJT wants to avoid that, and for the very good reason he will be beaten like a rented mule.

    Simon Jester (2708f4)

  13. Ted Cruz just said that Carly Fiorina “terrifies” Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee for President, and Carly Fiorina got like 3 dozen votes. Guys, Glenn Beck is not a reality show.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  14. Trump has to win on the first ballot, or he doesn’t win. But I also think that Cruz has to win on the second ballot, or HE doesn’t win. I think he will — I expect Cruz to get 1700 votes on the second ballot — but if he does NOT get 1237 there, then ANYTHING can happen. Trump would have a second shot on a third ballot, and after that, it’s time for a recess and some serious drinking.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  15. Sorry, #nevercruz #neverhillary

    Requirementfail (8f4a5c)

  16. Trump is now very likely to be the nominee. I agree he needs to win on the first ballot, but if he gets to Cleveland with 1150 or so, I think the party will move to put him over the top.

    mark johnson (81f76c)

  17. if he gets to Cleveland with 1150 or so, I think the party will move to put him over the top.

    Why?

    Milhouse (87c499)

  18. Trump has to win on the first ballot, or he doesn’t win. But I also think that Cruz has to win on the second ballot, or HE doesn’t win.

    I’m not so sure. Many delegates are tied up for three consecutive votes. Wait for the fourth.

    It took Jefferson 36 ballots in the House to shake someone loose.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  19. From your lips to God’s ears.

    Rorschach (8ddea0)

  20. Yes, the Sniveling Coward’s Twitter army will stomp off in a rage.

    The people who won’t vote for Cruz because he’s “not conservative enough” or “too establishment” or will fail to burn everything down, are the same people who didn’t vote in 2012 and 2008 and probably vote for 5th parties when they do.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  21. Patterico, many states do not unbind their delegates until the third ballot, so it is conceivable it might take a third ballot for Cruz to surmount 1237, but like you I think he will have enough unbound crossover delegates on the second to put it away.

    Rorschach (8ddea0)

  22. Patterico,

    Attention spans are much shorter today. Things like the 1920 Conventions (10 and 44 ballots) would be disasters today. Oh, wait, they pretty much were then.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  23. I sincerely hope you are right(hope is not always a good plan, but that’s about the best we have.)
    I would hate to go to the polls and be forced to decide between Trump and either of the two
    ##%##**&#s horses’ asses the Democrats put up.

    Bar Sinister (c62a89)

  24. In case Trump actually wins the nomination, I have not decided between writing in my dog or
    Alfred E Newman. Of course, as a California resident, my vote for president will be irrelevant.

    Bar Sinister (c62a89)

  25. I note that the Convention has no rules about enforcing state bindings, and state laws binding delegate votes are probably unconstitutional anyway (see also Electors). State party RULES are another matter, of course. But given that so many “Trump” delegates despise Trump, I wonder if some of them will actually vote for him if it means he will be narrowly nominated.

    Note than in 1976, there WAS a GOP Convention rule enforcing bindings and there was a rules fight by the Reagan camp to remove that rule. Had they succeeded Reagan might well have been the nominee instead of Ford; he only needed to move 60 votes.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  26. I have not decided between writing in my dog or Alfred E Newman.

    I think it will be an easy vote for Gary Johnson, unless there is a GOP alternative.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  27. If Hillary Clinton is your “reality”, carlitos, well………. it must really suck being you. My condolences.

    Colonel Haiku (7b1ecf)

  28. I’m still excitedly awaiting the FBI to wrap up it’s investigation of the Clitonemail dot com server. I’m hoping things come to a head before the CA primary so that the good folks of California can save the Democratic Party from it’s H. Roddamn Clinton folly (or perhaps doom them completely).

    As for the Cruz prediction, it’s a nice dream. Trump has the attention of the disgruntled independents. He’s being carried by people to whom the Republicans keep making unmet promises. The Republicans have also doomed themselves completely.

    Xmas (35fdcf)

  29. Cruz for The Win, Trump for Teh Whine.

    Colonel Haiku (7b1ecf)

  30. carlitos, not even close. Trump needs about 400 more delegates. There are a total of 162 delegates up for grabs next Tuesday. In round numbers, after the New York primary, Cruz needs about 350 to force an open convention, and Trump needs about 400 to clinch a win on the first round.

    BobStewartatHome (a52abe)

  31. Sorry to say – you’re totally wrong…

    I won’t even bother to detail all the reasons why Cruz will almost-certainly not be the RNC-approved Rethuglican nominee, even if he manages – somehow – to continue to lie, cheat and thieve sufficiently to overcome Trump’s clear-cut and by-the-rules quite viable candidacy, nor why – should he somehow contrive to connive and swindle his way into the nomination – he will utterly fail in the General Election.

    Simply: Lyin’ Ted Cruz will not become the next President of the (Sometimes-)United States of America.

    See you after the election – and there will be substantial sneering at your abysmally-incorrect “prediction”.

    J. S. Bridges (1fc8c7)

  32. Good Lord, please… from Patterico’s lips to God’s ears.
    If Cruz is not the nominee, I’m writing in my cat’s name.

    avid lurker (3088ef)

  33. I’m puzzled by the anger and invective directed at Ted Cruz by Trump supporters. But I’m also puzzled by Republicans like Cruz’s father mentioned in a story currently posted at the Drudgereport.com who says that Trump will be worse than Hillary. In my book, NOTHING is worse than Hillary. Or she’s at least as bad as the person she hopes to succeed (who has been foolishly admired by some non-Democrats, including certain independents and Republicans, for the crease of his pants) remaining in office and continuing his “goddamn America, your chickens are coming home to roost” way of thinking and leading.

    Mark (bc2df9)

  34. #31 J.S. Bridges,

    Thank you for not bothering to detail “all the reasons.”
    After all, we’ve already heard enough conspiracies involving the JFK assassination, Amelia Earhart, and the Loch Ness Monster from other passionate followers belonging to The Cult of The Donald. (LOL)
    By the way, why do you say that the nominee will be RNC approved? If that were true, does that mean that if The Donald gets the nomination, that the RNC has approved him? You can’t have it both ways; if the RNC doesn’t allow anyone to get the nomination without their blessing, then that applies to The Donald, too.
    …and why has the RNC allowed The Donald to get this far at the expense of Jeb Bush and Chris Christie and George Pataki if they really do have the power to coronate the nominee?

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  35. if there’s a recession in the news come november ted might have a chance maybe

    maybe?

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  36. If Hillary Clinton is your “reality”, carlitos, well………. it must really suck being you. My condolences.

    Colonel Haiku (7b1ecf) — 4/20/2016 @ 7:58 am

    Hillary Clinton is indeed a real person.

    BobStewartatHome – I just have clarified. If Trump sweeps the Northeast and then just muddles along at the consensus averages, that gets him to 400. Maybe I’m wrong about Indiana; what are those extra 20 delegates contingent upon there?

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  37. I think you underestimate the Democratic base’s hostility to Sen. Cruz.

    I keep getting into conversations with people who insist that I can’t vote not-Trump if it means voting for Sen. Cruz, because Sen. Cruz is “just as bad”.

    It’s a peculiar blindness, I think. But it’s real, and Sen. Clinton can capitalize on it.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  38. Carlitos–

    Only 75 delegates are awarded next Tuesday. Most of the PA ones are unbound, and DE and CT are awarded in convention, with no clear connection to the primary results. Maybe they’re bound by CD and the rules just aren’t stated clearly, but it’s still only 120 total, not the 400 or so he needs.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  39. Mr happyfeet, the media will be working overtime to pump up the economy between now and November. Unemployment will be reported as .0000002 per cent, and someone at MSNBC will be touting Detroit as a new tourist destination due to its revitalization under the Obama Administration. (LOL) Of course, while all those Onion-esque reports are being espoused, Hillary will be campaigning about how billions of Americans are being left behind by the economy, and we need her new welfare programs to save the country. In other words, Obama did such a great job, that people are starving in the streets!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  40. I think you may be overestimating the size of the Democratic base after 8 years of Obama.

    DRJ (15874d)

  41. It’s a peculiar blindness, I think.

    It’s like how some people on the right can’t see any difference between Hillary, Bernie, Kasich or Romney.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  42. Detroit as a new tourist destination

    Particularly the nightlife.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  43. DRJ – could well be. I live in SF and used to live in NYC; my IRL social circles *are* the Democratic base. (Even my TX family are TX democrats).

    aphrael (3f0569)

  44. Kevin M – I can see that analogy. And I find it infuriating; while I disagree with Sen. Cruz, he’s no Donald Trump.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  45. Thanks for the clarifications. I was on 538.com and just projecting the expert averages after next Tuesday.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  46. because Sen. Cruz is “just as bad”.

    That mindset, pervasive among the left, is a big reason some of the most dysfunctional, pathetic communities throughout the US and countries throughout the world are trapped in a never-ending cycle of failure and despair, perfectly illustrated in urban-slum America or the mess that is Venezuela or Brazil. It’s also the major reason I have a hard time sympathizing for most of the people trapped in such nightmares. However, I do feel sorry for decent, sensible, sane people who try to eke out an existence and survive in such idiocracies.

    Mark (bc2df9)

  47. BTW, I expect a hurricane to threaten to threaten landfall during the GOP convention so the networks can pull away and spend their time talking about Katrina.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  48. When do the big money republicans start trashing Clinton? What? They will trash Cruz and Trump first!!
    What a poo poo pile team republican is.

    mg (31009b)

  49. I have several friends that have attended the Movement Festival in Detroit. And I enjoyed a Cubs-Tigers game there a few years back. And that scary Greek casino.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  50. Aphrael,

    If you live in SF, your social circles are the left fringe of the Democrat base, pretty much like an Idaho ex-cop bar is for the GOP. Although I might accept that it’s a single issue base, and yes, Cruz is probably worse on that single issue. I am sometimes embarrassed by this.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  51. someone at MSNBC will be touting Detroit as a new tourist destination due to its revitalization under the Obama Administration

    That makes me think of a video I saw recently about two Americans who visited Caracas, Venezuela. They caught on film an unfolding disaster, stores with empty shelves and — most appalling of all — huge levels of crime and corruption, dysfunction running rampant all over the place.

    What really made me think of modern-day liberalism was that the government of Venezuela apparently is quite a stickler about forcing businesses to post signs that proclaim “gun free” and “smoke free.”

    Mark (bc2df9)

  52. Kevin M – in SF, at least, my social circles are largely old school tech geeks (eg, people who’ve been in the industry for 20+ years), who skew far left on social issues and center-right on economic issues.

    My friends in NYC are to the left of my SF friends on economic issues.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  53. What does you Texas family think about Cruz, aphrael?

    DRJ (15874d)

  54. Oddly, too, my friends in NY are to the left of my friends in SF on *racial* issues, but not on gender and sexuality issues.

    There isn’t just one left; there are multiple lefts. 🙂

    aphrael (3f0569)

  55. DRJ – they don’t like him, didn’t vote for him, and wish he would go away. (Like I said, they’re Texas democrats :))

    aphrael (3f0569)

  56. Cruz just said that Donald Trump is “terrified.” What planet is this guy on?

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  57. It’s interesting to watch the conflict between labor Democrats and tech Democrats over Uber.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  58. aphrael,

    For some of your Nancy Pelosi-cheerleading friends to suggest that Cruz is “just as bad” as Trump suggests they aren’t as familiar with the candidates as they espouse. Trump’s not even really a Republican. He contributed to Hillary’s presidential campaign in 2008, and to the aforementioned Pelosi in recent years, and to Harry Reid, as well. There aren’t a whole lot of issues where Trump impresses Reaganites in the way that Cruz does.
    I would think that your liberal friends would be much more comfortable with Trump than Cruz. They should fear Cruz, but The Donald…uh, not so much.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  59. Mr. Trump’s TV surrogates are not all that eloquent.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  60. That’s interesting about the SF-NY difference on economic policy, aphrael. I don’t think NY was as hurt by the 2008 downturn as the rest of the country. Do you think the differences have always been there or are more recent?

    DRJ (15874d)

  61. But I’m also puzzled by Republicans like Cruz’s father mentioned in a story currently posted at the Drudgereport.com who says that Trump will be worse than Hillary. In my book, NOTHING is worse than Hillary.

    Many of us do not share your book. I agree that Trump would be worse than Clinton. I will not vote for Clinton, but I will not lift a finger to prevent her from defeating Trump.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  62. Posted to twitter.

    Let us all Hope and Pray you are Correct.

    If you aren’t…….. well, let us not contemplate a disaster of that magnitude..

    Torcer (f045ef)

  63. I assumed they don’t like him but why? Is it because of his policies or is it more visceral (“he’s creepy”) like it is with national Democrats?

    DRJ (15874d)

  64. Kevin M (25bbee) — 4/20/2016 @ 8:32 am

    So tell me, how do you make a hurricane?

    Milhouse (87c499)

  65. Carlitos, the “experts” at 538, think that Trump will end at 1191. I think they’re giving him too much of Indiana and California, and possibly WA and OR. 1150 seems more likely. Cruz might do well to throw support to Kasich in several states now (MD, CT, NJ) in exchange for Kasich getting out of California.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  66. Trump’s incessant boasting and other behaviors show he is incredibly insecure, carlitos. Insecure people act out of fear that they will be exposed or lose. The Trump we see is a carefully crafted facade that hides how insecure he is.

    DRJ (15874d)

  67. faux republics are voting in mass for trump because he is the outsider, not an establishment republican.

    What do they think Cruz is – the consumate insider/establishment.

    heck he has managed to tick off most of the establishment precisely because he is anti establishment.

    Cruz is by far the best qualified to be president – by an extremely large margin over all the others.

    Joe - From Texas (debac0)

  68. DRJ, I don’t have a good answer for that, because we haven’t talked about it in depth. There’s a limited amount of time/space for politics at family gatherings, and our family gatherings have lately been dominated by (a) concern about my aunt who has lung cancer and (b) concern about me and my husband separating. Politics has been of low concern.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  69. DRJ, at 61: it’s hard for me to say, because I’ve only known NYC since 2011. 🙂

    I do think that both the Bay Area and NYC are experiencing a real recovery, *and* I think some of the political differences were pre-existing. Racial issues don’t resonate as much in the bay area because we don’t have a large african-american population (and while we do have a large hispanic and asian population, the issues and politics around those issues are different); silicon valley’s culture is heavily influenced by libertarian ideals and originally skewed left primarily because in the tech world of the 1990s, the tech community was convinced to worry more about social issues than economic issues (which were pretty good for the tech industry at the time); the bay area doesn’t have the concentration of deep, deep poverty that NYC does; etc.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  70. Milhouse,

    Kevin said a hurricane might “threaten” landfall. It doesn’t have to be close for the media to decide it is worth covering.

    Having said that, I expect the media to cover the GOP convention non-stop with an emphasis on protests outside the hall, especially every moment of violence or “threatened” violence they can find.

    DRJ (15874d)

  71. Cruz Supporter at 59:

    I think that we should all fear Trump, because Trump is the guy saying things like, he’s fine with S. Korea and Japan getting nuclear weapons. He’s got no understanding of or grounding in the realities of the political present, or the reasons for the tradeoffs and decisions that have been made; and while that’s part of his *appeal*, it’s also why he’s terrifying.

    I think that my liberal friends think Sen. Cruz is very likely to be able to enact an agenda that they would find *terrible*.

    I agree with them on that – I don’t like his agenda, and think that a Republican controlled Congress would enact it.

    But I’d prefer that to the absolute unpredictable loose cannon that is Trump.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  72. Oh, aphrael, I am so sorry to hear about your family concerns. Take care. I’m sorry I asked but thank you for responding.

    DRJ (15874d)

  73. From your lips (keys? fingers?) to God’s ears.

    Mike S. (f5d617)

  74. DRJ, at 73: (a) thank you for your sympathy!; (b) you have no reason to be sorry you asked. ‘Twas a reasonable question. 🙂

    aphrael (3f0569)

  75. I used to think Kasich was staying in to try to be Trump’s VP and thus be a moderating, establishment influence on him. But what if he’s staying in to fill that role with both Trump and Cruz? To be the establishment’s man at the convention?

    DRJ (15874d)

  76. what I hate is that no matter who wins whether it’s Ted or Donald, some people are gonna be sad

    what we need is for LOVE to win

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  77. I understand why liberals fear Cruz because he won’t simply talk about problems and he won’t cave. He will be determined and relentless.

    But he will also be the candidate who is least willing to infringe anyone’s individual rights. The only people who should fear Cruz are people who aren’t willing to engage in political compromise and who instead want to use the law/courts and government to compel results.

    DRJ (15874d)

  78. Love Wins, happyfeet, especially at Whole Foods in Austin.

    DRJ (15874d)

  79. aphrael:

    … in the tech world of the 1990s, the tech community was convinced to worry more about social issues than economic issues (which were pretty good for the tech industry at the time);

    That’s intriguing. Can you elaborate?

    DRJ (15874d)

  80. With all the nonsense going on in our awful political sphere, I read aphrael’s post, and it reminded me:

    We are all in the same boat, really.

    aphrael, I’m sorry for your challenges, and wish you the very best.

    As for the Whole Foods thing in Austin, I believe it takes away from real concerns. I wonder if the minister will be prosecuted. I have seen this sort of thing happen many times, and I am torn between anger at the hoaxer, and I wish they could get therapy.

    Too many sociopaths around these days. My father’s theory of more people than souls comes to mind.

    Again, aphrael, best wishes.

    Simon Jester (2708f4)

  81. Kevin said a hurricane might “threaten” landfall. It doesn’t have to be close for the media to decide it is worth covering.

    I suppose I should have put my previous comment in quotes, to make it clearer that it was a reference to the punchline of an old borscht-belt joke.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  82. aphrael,

    I haven’t held back in expressing my fear of Trump. But why liberals would fear South Korea and Japan developing nukes when they didn’t oppose Barack’s enabling of Iran developing them is beyond me. And now a number of Gulf states want them, too.
    South Korea and Japan developing nukes is in reaction to the Clinton Administration enabling North Korea’s development of nukes. So, with Hillary running this fall, Team Democrat is probably not in good position to be giving lectures opposing nuclear proliferation among South Korea and Japan.
    “The bad guys can develop nukes, but not the good guys” is an incoherent foreign policy.
    North Korea has been testing nukes, and Barack’s response has been to go play golf. Russia’s had a couple of planes dive at our ships recently, and Barack did nothing. When other countries see weakness in American foreign policy, they respond by saying, “Okay, then we’re going to have to be more proactive in developing our own defense.”

    This is the Real Politick—not the Fantasyland of Left Wingers.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  83. Little Patrick’s sad that I’m going to win on the first ballot in Cleveland and then clean Crooked Hillary’s dirty clock. And if not, riots, but the BEST riots. Sad!

    @RealDonaldTrump (341ca0)

  84. Let it be written, let it be done.

    marci (c7079f)

  85. aphrael, your Democrat colleague would seem to fit into two groups. The older hippy programmers are basically progressives who are so enthralled with themselves that they never bothered to grow up. I expect a few will actually become self-educated as time passes and moderate their inflated opinion of themselves and their political leaders. The rest will become embittered leftists. They are the types who will complain that the QE strategy failed because it just wasn’t sweeping enough. They will also advocate for the elimination of all forms of cash, relying instead on debit cards and smart phones, as one example of their infantile trust in governmental beneficence. They believe that our bureaucratic overlords can coerce prosperity. If you ask them, they will assert that WWII ended the Great Depression, and they are quite comfortable considering the imposition of another war in order to improve our economy.

    The organized labor types, the second group, are of two minds. One pretends to have a conscience by maintaining that they are still independent thinkers, and they were (or still are) union members because of their pension benefits. Many in this group support the 2nd Amendment. But when it comes time to create chaos, chaos endorsed by Democrats to ensure that there will be no repercussions, they are willing to become low level thugs, breaking legs, smashing windows, and doing whatever it takes to break the will of those who oppose them. Some of these characters will self-educate themselves and perhaps find peace of mind in their senior years, but if they have engaged in union-sponsored violence, they will forever believe in the virtue of their thuggishness. The remainder of this group are the leaders, and they sold their souls a long time ago. Tony Boyle is their prototype, but they have learned that they need to moderate their murderous instincts when Republicans control the administration, or might assume control of the administration in the near future (Boyle let out the hit on the Yablonski’s while LBJ was still President, misjudging the outcome of the 1968 election.) They know it is just a matter of time before the Democrats control the DoJ, and then old scores can be settled.

    BobStewartatHome (a52abe)

  86. DRJ, at 80: I would be happy to, AND unfortunately *today* I cannot. I will make a note to drop a comment on the subject next week. 🙂

    aphrael (3f0569)

  87. BobStewartatHome: thank you for that caricature! It nicely fails to match the reality of *anyone* in my social circle.

    To be mildly sarcastic, it’s *great* to see you projecting your assumptions about people that I care about, rather than *asking me*. Far better to judge individuals based on your preconceptions of them than it is to try to understand them through the views of someone who actually knows them!

    aphrael (3f0569)

  88. I also don’t get the Trump base’s hostility to Cruz. What position or attitude does Trump take that Cruz strongly disagree with? There are some differences in METHOD (Trump would use tariffs where Cruz would lower taxes on business; both want to bring hi-tech manufacturing back from China).

    Is it just a cultural thing?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  89. Kevin M – in SF, at least, my social circles are largely old school tech geeks (eg, people who’ve been in the industry for 20+ years), who skew far left on social issues and center-right on economic issues.

    Name a Democrat politician who skews center-right on economic issues. Opposes rent control, say. Or wants lower business taxes and the repeal of Sarbanes-Oxley or Dodd-Frank.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  90. Kevin M – I didn’t say anything about the *politicians*. I said something about *my social circle*. 🙂

    My social circle is more concerned about the fact that no Republican politicians in California supported *domestic partnerships* when the legislature adopted them than the fact that no Democratic politicians in California support lowering taxes. Which is to say – even if my friends are center-right on economic issues, the social issues matter more to them.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  91. Aphrael,

    As for there being many lefts, there are are also other axes. For example, I skew far libertarian on most social issues — I don’t want the state interfering one way or the other. From my point of view, it’s “good luck finding a wedding cake baker; I’m sure you’ll find a good one” rather than forcing [the wrong] people to hop when [the right] people say frog, which is pretty much fascism, either left or right.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  92. As it has been said, making predictions is hard, especially about the future.

    And political predictions are especially hard to make, since somebody won the presidency in 2008 who should have never even been a serious contender for the nomination.

    I know there are some, like aphrael, who fear what Cruz would do,
    Cruz would try to revive the idea of government according to the US Constitution, with individual liberty a bigger priority than ensuring groupthink from pre-school through free college.

    It’s like the case before the SCOTUS now on immigration, do you really want a government where the president can pick and choose what he/she will do, including making treaties that aren’t treaties, administrative decisions that go around Congressional law, stonewalling investigations into Fed criminal activities?
    If you want more of that, vote for a Dem,
    but I promise you, apart from the grace of God, when the Trumpian anti-DC figure finally takes over, the nation will pay dearly, especially those who were happy with the previous status quo.

    If we get the government we deserve as a nation, I am afraid it will be Hillary. From the child on the street to those in the halls of power, hatred for truth and lust for doing what is right in one’s own eyes is far too rampant,
    and Jeremiah says that is a very terrible situation with dire consequences.

    If Cruz does win, the battle will just have begun to educate and bring reason to the nation.
    But even Ninevah once listened to reason.

    I have no idea what is going to happen in the near future, as in the next 4 years. I think it will be bad no matter who gets elected president when all of president Obama’s Iranian, Russian, and Syrian chickens come home to roost. Whoever doesn’t win the election may be glad they didn’t by 2018.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  93. So tell me, how do you make a hurricane?

    I’ll let you know right after one hits Cleveland.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  94. I expect the media to cover the GOP convention non-stop with an emphasis on protests outside the hall

    They’ll have the anti-Trump protests going 24/7 weeks before-hand with their MoveOn banners (btw, when will MoveOn move on, now that we have, in fact, moved on from the Clinton impeachment?)

    Then when Trump is passed over, they’ll have the pro-Trump protesters with their screams about the stolen convention and how Cruz is a Canadian.

    Then when it finally comes down to BUSH …. kidding …. kidding

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  95. My social circle is more concerned about the fact that no Republican politicians in California supported *domestic partnerships* when the legislature adopted them

    I think you and others have argued that as a whole, conservatives argued against domestic partnerships than be content with them as a compromise in avoiding SSM;
    perhaps that is true, perhaps if it was it was only because many knew that once the camel’s nose is under the tent’s wall there is no way to keep the camel out.

    When the federal government, and only 5 appointed people at that, can change the definition of language and concepts that have existed worldwide since the beginning of recorded history,
    that is way too much power.
    But then I guess they have long been doing that, at least since saying we don’t know what the “blob of tissue” is that is growing inside a woman’s womb.
    The same group of people may even someday say you don’t have a right to grow your own food on your own land…
    oh, yeah

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  96. > (btw, when will MoveOn move on, now that we have, in fact, moved on from the Clinton impeachment?)

    that’s a good question. they should at least have changed their name.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  97. I think that my liberal friends think Sen. Cruz is very likely to be able to enact an agenda that they would find *terrible*.

    I agree with them on that – I don’t like his agenda, and think that a Republican controlled Congress would enact it.

    Could you name two prime examples of this?

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  98. aphrael 87,

    No problem and I hope you will because I’m interested.

    DRJ (15874d)

  99. This reminds me of letters written home by German soldiers on the Western Front during the waning days of World War II.

    I would hope Cruz is the Republican nominee and if he wins the presidency I may start standing during the National Anthem again. Polls say Cruz could beat Hillary or Sanders but that Trump could not. So my prediction is that Trump will win the primary, lose the general, and this country will continue through the theft and salvery of Socialism started by Obama.

    CrustyB (69f730)

  100. Milhouse,

    I obviously didn’t get it at first but I get it now. Thanks for being patient with me.

    DRJ (15874d)

  101. concern about me and my husband separating

    I am so sorry to hear that. My marriage has been a rock in difficult times, and we all need that. I hope that if it has to be, it’s just the door opening to something better.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  102. Rush Limbaugh points out that the magic number for Donald Trump may really be closer to 1137 than 1237. There are, or will be, about 200 unbound delegates. Trump would have to win on the first ballot, though. Rush doesn’t seem to like the idea of Trump becoming the nominee either, though, because Trump would lose – people should not at all be confident that almost no Republicans would vote for Hillary in that case, because in fact they would. Rush is emphasizing that Cruz going to conventons to get Trump delegates, is not cheating. You could make the case Trump getting 60% of the vote and 95% of the delegates in New York is rigged, too. He said Cruz should explain it – he could do that as easily as Rush does.

    Sammy Finkelman (a5988d)

  103. My social circle is more concerned about the fact that no Republican politicians in California supported *domestic partnerships* when the legislature adopted

    Well, I opposed domestic partnerships, too, but because I dislike marriage-lite in its entirety. I was supporting SSM as a public policy more than a decade ago. But I take your point.

    OTOH, SF is an outlier wrt California as a whole, on nearly every issue. The SecState has maps of every ballot issue, by county and SF County is *always* voting the left way on everything, in Soviet proportions.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  104. Patterico (86c8ed) — 4/20/2016 @ 7:38 am

    Many delegates are tied up for three consecutive votes.

    Rush Limbaugh said that’s the case with Florida (where Trump won all the delegates)

    California delegates are bound for the first two ballots.

    Sammy Finkelman (a5988d)

  105. Maybe Wafflin’ Rush wants another Clinton presidency. The first one sure made him famous. Don’t blame me for the certain riots, though. A shame!

    @RealDonaldTrump (341ca0)

  106. I endorse and associate myself with this post.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  107. The whole idea of social issues being political is so alien to me. Except for abortion — which has existential concerns on both sides — social issues should not be government’s business at all. Economic and criminal issues are more properly the concern of government, but many people are so blinded by the social issue ranting that they don’t mind the store. Then wonder why they get robbed blind.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  108. I hope you are right. Trump or Hillary isn’t much of a choice.

    Mattsky (484b56)

  109. Milhouse (87c499) — 4/20/2016 @ 7:06 am

    I also still think that Clinton will not be the D candidate in November. I don’t know when the indictment will come, but I’m more than 50% sure that it will come.

    Maybe, but she would attempt to continue running while under indictment, and have hopes of winning the election. If there was some attempt to replace her with somebody it probably would be Biden, but there might be disputes. Some would say name the vice-preidential nominee as the replacement candidate. Some would say Sanders. The Democratic National Committee would decide.

    I am not sure they could force her off the ticket – Thomas Eagleton’s withdrawal in 1972 was essentially voluntary. And he was only the nominee for vice president.

    Of course then we get into state parties refusing to pledge their electors to her – and a similar thing could happen with the Republicans in many scenarios. We might not have any candidate on all 50 state ballots, altough Hillary, indicted or not, is most likely. Anyway she won’t be indicted because there’s probably not enough evidence of espionage for foreign interests or of corruption.

    Sammy Finkelman (a5988d)

  110. 90. Anyone can be against rent control being brought in from the blue, but opposition to SOX would be indeed a game changer, since accountants, particularly from the remains of the old big 6 are ideal residents for urban Dem enclaves – high income, long hours that encourage patronage of restaurants (be it eat-in, carryout, delivery or truck/cart) and other specialized services, not picky about schools due to the first 2 factors and that they are likely to move to suburbs and leave the city to the next batch of young professionals, so a sort of detached temporary voter roll. As for lower business taxes, the compromise is the famous TIF which at least silos the business tax (property taxes) into localized needs as opposed to going to general funds. Forward thinking mayors that could implement lower business taxes or are hemmed in by their city councils which are often seated by proxies from teachers and low-skill unions, pre-gentrification minority constituencies, and police/fire/public works hoods (who while generally conservative will fight like hell against dimunition of their pensions).

    urbanleftbehind (5eecdb)

  111. aphrael, one of our discussion topics last week was Murray’s bubble test. I don’t think it was all that reliable, but the idea was that if you scored in to 20’s, you lived in a fairly small bubble. If you scored in the 60s, then you lived in a much bigger bubble. I scored in the 40s, but forgot that for one summer during college I worked as a draftsman next to an assembly line in a converted warehouse with no AC in El Monte. I imagine if I changed my answers to reflect this, it would have upped my score into the 50s or 60s. I have also worked in a lab where the median postgraduate degree of the professional staff, which was 70% of the headcount, was a PhD. So I acknowledge that it was presumptuous to assume anything about your friends. I was simply projecting my experience with progressive leftists over the last three decades. My sample group was large, but it was just a microcosm in the scheme of things. If the categories are of no use to you, that’s fine with me.

    You sound like a one issue voter. I rather doubt that the government is as instrumental in ensuring your happiness as you believe. If you made a list of everything that is important in your daily life, you might surprise yourself by how much of what is actually important to you is directly affected by your choices, and not affected in the least by governmental policies. This is certainly true for me, despite my interest in politics. I tend to look on politics as a long term existential challenge to our way of life, and not as something of immediate benefit to myself.

    BobStewartatHome (a52abe)

  112. > So I acknowledge that it was presumptuous to assume anything about your friends

    Thank you.

    > You sound like a one issue voter.

    That’s bizarre.

    In 2010, I voted for a Republican candidate for Attorney General, and a Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor. I’m currently registered as a Republican for the explicit purpose of voting against Mr. Trump because I think he’s a threat to the Republic. I care more about ballot measures than I do about candidates, as long as I’m in California, because with ballot measures I’m getting to vote on actual *laws*; and I’m one of the few people I know who regularly read the entire law and the referenced laws. (Before I moved, I used to hold parties where I’d try to explain the arguments for both sides in as fair a way as I could muster, because I believe that my duty to my friends is to educate them and let them make their decisions based on their weighing of the facts and their values – rather than believing I should persuade them to vote the way I do).

    I’m pretty far from a single-issue voter.

    Perhaps you’re inferring that from my description of what I see in the culture around me?

    aphrael (3f0569)

  113. i think it’s hilter’s birthday

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  114. aphrael, I was reacting to you post at #91. You are obviously aware that the world is a dangerous place. But I have the impression that you see these things through social values prisms. Which might explain how you could be indifferent to giving the Iranians nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, while expressing concern over South Korea and Japan arming themselves in reaction to eight years of feckless American foreign policy.

    BobStewartatHome (a52abe)

  115. I’m with you, Pat. But I’ll hedge my bet too: at no time in my now long adult life has any political candidate made me happier than Cruz. Win, lose or draw, nothing can take away the exhilaration I feel in supporting Cruz. Furthermore, I was at a point where I had given up on the political class. No more.

    ThOR (a52560)

  116. Landslides for Hill and Shorty? Now that’s New York values in action.

    There’s a reason for our nation’s 300+ year history of western migration. Anyone with a lick of sense wanted to get away from New York values.

    ThOR (a52560)

  117. I like Hillary better than Trump because she has nicer hair. And bigger hands.

    But I’m not going to vote for either. Because they’re both Depends-wearing poopers. Who should be tarred, feathered, and put on a boat to Amsterdam.

    nk (dbc370)

  118. 114.i think it’s hilter’s birthday

    Did you read“It Is For The Good of Society!” at all, happyfeet

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  119. i think it’s hilter’s birthday

    happyfeet (a037ad) — 4/20/2016 @ 11:01 am

    It’s 420 day. I posted a little Bob Marley on Facebook, wink wink.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  120. at no time in my now long adult life has any political candidate made me happier than Cruz.

    I agree with that statement 100%, ThOR. Plus, I actually trust Cruz to uphold the Constitution which no other politician in my life time has done. We are being run by a dictatorship of bureaucrats and it has to be stopped before we become a complete fascist state.

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  121. @ aphrael: Thanks for that analysis & explanation at #72, and throughout your other comments.

    You also wrote (#37): “I think you underestimate the Democratic base’s hostility to Sen. Cruz.” Obviously anything I say or write about the Democratic base is guesswork — I’ve never been in or close to it, I’m an observer from the other side of the divide. My working assumption, though, is that the Dem base — the largest subset of the larger coalition that propelled Obama in 2008 and 2012 — can be worked up sufficiently to turn out even for a Hillary Clinton and even against a John Kasich. The Dems were able to demonize even squeaky-clean aw-shucks Mitt Romney, and they’d find a way to do that to Kasich, or to any white-knight (Ryan, Mitch Daniels, Gen. Mattis, w/e).

    In handicapping Cruz, I’m assuming that with respect to the Dem base, he’ll be at least as motivational as Reagan was. The Dems were able not only to gin up the base over Reagan, but a lot of other people too — at least, at this same point in the election cycle. And of course, Reagan eventually overcame that handily, through a combination of consolidating and turning out the GOP base and picking up the famous “Reagan Democrats” and independents, with whom Reagan, over the course of the campaign, was able to overcome the caricature that had been painted of him in the media going back to his days as California’s governor. Cruz’ negatives with that same segment of the public today (in which there are damned few Reagan Dems left, but lots of independents who aren’t reliably part of either party’s base) can likewise change a lot between now and November, especially when the contrast is between him and Hillary.

    I think Trump, though, has far more potential for the Dem nominee to demonize than Cruz, Reagan, or even Barry Goldwater. Yeah, Goldwater wanted to sell off the TVA, and LBJ was able to paint him as a warmonger who’d blow up the world — but that was all PR, done without Goldwater’s active assistance. Trump, by contrast, can be counted on to continue to validate the Left’s very worse tropes about the Right: Before this year, for instance, the Left always painted Republicans as baby-killers, but it took Trump to promise, at a GOP televised debate no less, to kill innocent family members (including children) of terrorists for deterrence and revenge.

    How’s that square with your own perspective? I ask because I acknowledge that my guesses aren’t very well informed.

    Finally, like other readers here, I’m sorry to hear of your challenges. Good on you for keeping a positive outlook to the extent that’s possible, and I hope you’ll find deliverance from your and your family’s troubles.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  122. [Last comment from me before I head out to a music festival for the weekend]

    (a) Beldar, DRJ, Simon Jester, and others: thank you for the kindnesses. It’s hard, AND it’s no more difficult than what thousands upon thousands of others have gone through; life will some day be normal again. 🙂

    (b) I think you’re right that Trump would be easier to gin up fear about than Sen. Cruz is.

    (c) I think that the parts of the Democratic base I’m most acquainted with mostly ignored Gov. Romney and would ignore Gov. Kasich, but would not ignore Sen. Cruz (as they did not ignore *Gov. Palin*).

    (d) I don’t see Sen. Cruz being as successful a campaigner as President Reagan was, because he doesn’t have President Reagan’s *sunny optimism*.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  123. Which festival, aphrael (if you don’t mind disclosing)?

    Leviticus (efada1)

  124. That makes sense, aphrael, and I know you are leaving and can’t respond so this is a general comment.

    Liberals in the media will do their best to portray Cruz negatively as they did with Palin. They learned the danger to their agenda posed by optimistic leaders like Reagan. But Cruz knows this and I think part of Beldar’s point is that Cruz won’t make it easy for the media to portray him that way. He will do his best to show he and his policies are concerned for Americans and will help us all.

    Many people won’t be receptive to that message but they weren’t going to vote for Cruz anyway. Some will be receptive, and Hillary’s weakness as a candidate will make the contrast even more stark. He has a chance.

    DRJ (15874d)

  125. Leviticus – Coachella, weekend 2. I’ve gone every year since 2005 except for one when a friend was getting married and one when I had a mock trial.

    aphrael (3f0569)

  126. “I keep getting into conversations with people who insist that I can’t vote not-Trump if it means voting for Sen. Cruz, because Sen. Cruz is “just as bad”.”

    It’s disheartening to be repeatedly reminded just how much evil, criminality, malevolence and sheer incompetence on the part of their politicians Democrat voters will stomach. They will wolf down as many sh*t burgers as are offered to them and still beg for more.

    Colonel Haiku (7b1ecf)

  127. President of what? A university?

    Danube River Guide (76b104)

  128. The party will unify.

    *********

    Wrong. Ted Cruz makes the fatal mistake of “borrowing enemies” everywhere.

    Danube River Guide (76b104)

  129. Cruz is a fantastic spokesman for his — for our! — ideas.

    *******

    He’s actually a terrible spokesman —and your correction comes dangerously close to illuminating the problem.

    Danube River Guide (76b104)

  130. aphrael, sorry to see your current concerns, I had to reread the thread, missed those comments first time.

    I would assume that anyone among the L/Dems who pays attention and understands things would have to hate Cruz, because what he stands for is antithetical to much of what the left stands for. In fact, someone who understood Obama and Clinton and supported them I would never expect to agree on major topics of government with any conservative.

    The balance between D and R for president I think depends upon voter enthusiasm and whether anyone can listen and hear and think for themselves, or are automatically swayed by whatever media/social bubble they are in. If people’s opinions are a function of how a topic is framed by the media person of choice, rather than thinking things through, Hillary will win because Repubs hate the poor and like children to go to bed hungry and that is why they are against raising the minimum wage to $15.00 or even $20.00.
    If one hears the question asked, “But what about the impact of raising the minimum wage on employment and consumer prices?”, you have already self-selected the media bubble one is listening to, and it is not one that votes for Hillary.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  131. Cruz actually has a weaker argument for winning the nomination than Trump. Also if he didn’t cut off his own nose to spite his own face he would be in a better position, but now he is in the middle of all his perceived enemies. Cruz is not the super hero you believe him to be.

    Danube River Guide (76b104)

  132. aphrael, I’m late to the threat, but wanted to say I’m sorry about your aunt and your other challenges.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  133. Cruz is not the super hero you believe him to be.
    Danube River Guide

    I believe Cruz to be the most conservative person running for President and therefore support him. I don’t believe in super hero’s, I’m an adult.

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  134. dream on dopers. after first ballot establishment will bring out that canadauj turd crud is a tranny hooker sex find transvestite!. and they have pictures and video of teddy the pervert! the establishment is using randy ted the way he uses tranny hookers!

    no way randy turd crud (cf3bd1)

  135. 106. 4/20/2016 @ 10:27 am

    Maybe Wafflin’ Rush wants another Clinton presidency. The first one sure made him famous.

    Rush Limbaugh was actually famous before. His national show started in August, 1988.

    Sammy Finkelman (a5988d)

  136. Enjoy Coachella. I’ve never been. Lolla, Osheaga, and my favorite Riot Fest. And Ozzfest way back in the day.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  137. Oh, and Pitchfork. And Igloofest in Montreal. And that electronic thing in Cancun. And the fete d’ete in QC.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  138. Cruz is not the super hero you believe him to be.
    Danube River Guide

    I believe Cruz to be the most conservative person running for President and therefore support him. I don’t believe in super hero’s, I’m an adult.

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6) — 4/20/2016 @ 1:24 pm

    **********

    “Most conservative “—what’s your definition of Conservative? Then–how does he win the Presidency while simultaneously smearing the Republican party while pushing the radical idea that he can single handedly conduct a huge and expensive deportation process? Btw–deportation is rapidly plummeting in the polling—amongst Republicans.

    Danube River Guide (76b104)

  139. Also–while most of you spend hours listening to Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin, the general Presidential election voting population does not. You will not have those two working on any significant portion of that voting population except to create divisions amongst yourselves.

    Danube River Guide (76b104)

  140. Meanwhile Cruz’s unfavorables are climbing ever higher.

    Danube River Guide (76b104)

  141. Who knew a tour of the Danube would involve so many stream-of-consciousness Trumpkin advertisements? I don’t think this will be a very popular excursion.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  142. I registered Republican from no party so I could vote for him in the primary. I imagine other people did the same.

    If we have to lose, which it seems the GOP always does, at least Cruz can articulate a more conservative vision for all.

    Patricia (5fc097)

  143. Ruby slipper punditry is cute.

    Jcurtis (c6356b)

  144. So apparently the newly presidential tone for Trump lasted roughly twelve hours. Today on the campaign trail, he’s back to “Lyin’ Ted.”

    But never you doubt, as Trump promised before the Iowa caucus that he lost decisively to Cruz: “When I’m president I’m a different person. I can do anything. I can be the most politically correct person you have ever seen.”

    Just not for more than 12 hours in a row.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  145. it’s really sad
    like ted cruz
    he’s like
    he’s like MR. BUFU
    we’re talking lord god king bufu
    i’m so sure he’s like so gross
    he like sits there and like plays with all his rings
    and he like flirts with all the guys in the class
    it’s like totally disgusting

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  146. @ Bellerophon (#3): That is a great name! Besides its classical Greek myth origin, it has a whole host of more recent uses in popular culture. It’s known to me, for example, through the Aubrey-Maturin (Master & Commander) novels, in which one of the four actual H.M.S. Bellerophons became the ship of the line on which the fictional young Jack Aubrey served as a midshipman. And there was yet another H.M.S. Bellerophon in recent fiction, specifically, as one of His Majesty’s Dragons (considered flying ships) in Naomi Novik’s “Temeraire” series.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  147. aphrael – I went to Outside Lands the past two summers. Really, really amazing experiences. Enjoy Coachella – the lineup looks awesome.

    Leviticus (efada1)

  148. It’s not hard for Cruz to come across as a super hero, given the collection of losers he is currently up against. Shorty is Narcissus reincarnate (and his followers, Echo); Shillery’s only core value is “follow the money”; Kasich is nothing more than a haircut (and not a good one, at that); and Sanders is a pathetic old hippie. Of the four, I like Sanders the best. He is the only one with pretensions of a moral compass, which, in his case, points in the wrong direction. (I give bonus points to politicians who at least try to distinguish between right and wrong, no matter how successful the effort).

    So, yes, Cruz is a super hero.

    ThOR (a52560)

  149. Danube, you’re all over the place! You oppose immigration reform and conservatism and also bash Cruz for his unfavorables? That and your vague ranting about Cruz’s tactics make me think you are bitter with us and have settled for impotent trolling.

    Where did Old Christoph go?

    Too bad he’s not here… y’all seem to at least have some common ground.

    Cruz has done a brilliant job. His odds of being a contender in a presidential election were virtually nothing a couple of years ago, and now he’s one of the foremost leaders of the right. I believe he can win. The adults will prefer him in a convention, and unlike Trump, who is Hillary’s dream come true, Cruz can win the general election.

    Dustin (2a8be7)

  150. FACT: In Wisconsin, Cruz got more votes than Trump did in New York – but he got fewer delegates than Trump got ! (i.e., RIGGED SYSTEM working for Trump.)
    FACT: Loser commie Bernie got more votes than Trump did in New York. Trumpsters who believe the BS that Trump will defeat Shrillary in NY please contact OBOZO immediately: he really wants some of the stuff you’re smoking !

    REALITY: Trump very likely will not win the general.
    Cruz has a chance. I’m sticking with Cruz for that and many other reasons.

    MicahStone (6f143d)

  151. Iran and North Korea should be allowed to develop nukes, but if South Korea and Japan do, then we need to have an intervention.

    Said no reasonable person, ever.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  152. This is the best explanation in the press I’ve seen so far regarding the possibility that the currently ongoing RNC meeting in Florida — while not doing anything to alter or amend the convention rules in advance of the convening of the Rules Committee the week before the convention — might switch the parliamentary process rules for the convention from the traditional U.S. House of Reps Rules to, instead, Robert’s Rules of Order (boldface & bracketed portion in original):

    What’s under discussion?

    On Thursday, the RNC Rules Committee will discuss a proposal from Solomon Yue, an Oregon committeeman and rules committee member, to switch the GOP convention’s parliamentary rules from the current system, modeled after the U.S House of Representatives, to Roberts’ Rules of Order. More on the implications of that in a minute.

    Priebus and other RNC officials are trying to block the recommendation, prompting Yue, in an email to Rules Committee members on Monday, complain of “institutional tyranny.” (Scroll down to read his full message.) Priebus, meanwhile, has said any recommendations for rules changes would just sow confusion with voters amid a charged political climate in which GOP frontrunner Donald Trump has regularly accused the RNC’s nominating process as being “rigged.”

    Lindsay Walters, a spokeswoman for the RNC, in an email said Priebus will continue to argue against any recommended rule changes.

    “The Chairman has been and will continue to make the case to RNC members that the rules of the convention should be decided by the delegates elected by Republican grassroots voters,” Walters said in an email.

    That sounds a little boring. What’s the big deal?

    Yue said his change would increase transparency at the convention, and make it harder for officials to recruit a “white knight” nominee — that is, nominate someone not currently in the race if Trump fails to gain the support of 1,237 delegates, a majority.

    “The chairman of the convention has tremendous power to open the convention on his own,” Yue told cleveland.com. But under the Roberts rules, it could only happen if a majority of delegates voted to do so, he said.

    Jim Dicke, an Ohio Republican committeeman and Rules Committee member, said it wouldn’t behoove the RNC for any changes to emerge from this week’s meeting.

    “I don’t think it would make sense for the committee to do that,” Dicke said. “All it does is create the misconception that we’re trying to affect or control the outcome. And if there’s one thing we don’t need as a party, it’s the perception that the committee is trying to handicap, or finagle who’s going to [be nominated] and who isn’t.”

    From Solomon Yue’s memo in support of the proposed change:

    I have favored going to Robert’s since it was first proposed in 2012 at our Rules Committee, but it became the focus of my recent reelection for a Sth term as Oregon National Committeeman in an anti-establishment and antiincumbent year. In talking to my state central committee members about my re-elect, they only wanted to know if I would allow Rule 40b to be changed and how I would stop the DC establishment from parachuting in their favorite candidate as a “fresh face” into the convention.

    I told my voting members that I would draw a line in the sand on the Rule 40b and defend that line by introducing Robert’s. I further explained that under House Rules the presiding officer could reopen nominations for a “fresh face” candidate without a vote of the majority delegates at the convention. Under the Robert’s, after voting begins, it would require a vote of the majority of delegates to reopen the nominations. By addressing my constituents’ concern about the establishment hijacking the convention, thereby blowing up the party and losing the White House fight in November, I was reelected on April 2nd.

    ….

    Robert’s empowers the delegates to make the important decisions at the convention, while the House Rules concentrates power in the chairman. Robert’s is well know while few know anything about the House Rules. We are in a period of mistrust, some well founded, of party leadership. We need a transparent convention where the delegates will be assured that they are treated fairly. And in particular, I am very concerned about the idea that we should have rules that allow a “fresh face,” who has been defeated by our voters, or who did not even run, should be sprung on the convention during balloting without a majority consent of the delegates. This is what we are facing and this Robert’s fixes.

    I’m not sure whether he’s right or not that this proposed switch would in fact make it harder for the Chair to reopen the floor to nominations during later rounds that the most recent Convention Rules (specifically 40(b), the “eight states to be placed in nomination” rule, and 16(a)(2), the “faithless delegate” rule) might otherwise block, unless the Convention Rules are changed by the Rules Committee during the week before the convention. I certainly see limitations on the Chair’s powers in Robert’s Rules (see, e.g., Rule 66 regarding “Nominations and Elections,” and Rule 26 regarding “Motions Relating to Nominations” including “Closing & Reopening Nominations”), mostly by those parliamentary rules’ reference and deference to standing bylaws or other convention rules. But I haven’t compared the analogous provisions of the House rules, if there are any.

    Most of Solomon’s memo goes on to give his counterargument to the efforts he says are being made by Priebus and others to get Solomon to withdraw this proposed change this week to Robert’s. And it would seem that Trump and Trumpkins, and Cruz and Cruizers, ought to agree with him on this. Kasich and every other potential white knight who can’t qualify under the current eight-state rule (Rule 40(b) — and who couldn’t have qualified under the previous (pre-2012) version of that rule either, which still required majority support from five states’ delegates before a name could be placed into nomination — surely would oppose a move to Robert’s, if Solomon is correct about the likely effects of that change.

    I doubt Solomon will prevail on this tomorrow, but I thought I’d share what I’ve been able to find, in case it might help readers here interpret tomorrow’s events, whatever they turn out to be and however they’re reported, or misreported, in the media.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  153. It’s not coincidental, by the way, that the news report I linked in #153 above comes from a Cleveland newspaper.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  154. yes, friends up there, call it the plain stealer,

    http://www.dailywire.com/news/5127/hillary-bundler-paid-saudis-who-dont-want-hank-berrien

    keep your eyes on target,

    narciso (732bc0)

  155. And here’s another take on Solomon Yue’s proposal and its possible effects (some paragraph breaks collapsed):

    While arcane, the change would have a profound effect on the convention. Under Robert’s Rules of Order, any of the 2,472 delegates would have the opportunity to raise objections, or points of order, and interrupt the proceedings.

    “This is a super-charged political year and there is the potential for a contested convention,” said Yue. “We should operate in total political transparency.”

    Some RNC leaders worry it would be a messy affair. “There are disadvantages because many of the rules of the House are designed to have a smooth operation of a large delegation casting votes,” said Evans. “There’s the potential for greater disruption,” said Peter Feaman, a Rules Committee member from Florida, who is also still undecided.

    The proposal could have other implications. One RNC member who serves on the Rules Committee said it would make it harder for a white knight candidate to emerge. Under Robert’s Rules of Order, this official said, the nomination process would be closed early in the convention and couldn’t be opened at a later time – a stipulation that doesn’t exist in House rules.

    That last is probably a reference to Rule 26 in Robert’s Rules.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  156. I will just hope for the unexpected. I expect nothing good. We’ll see.

    SarahW (67599f)

  157. “Most conservative “—what’s your definition of Conservative?

    I’m sure you know the definition of conservative, Danube River Guide, so just add “the most” in front of it.

    Then–how does he win the Presidency while simultaneously smearing the Republican party…

    Exactly how is he smearing the Party?

    … while pushing the radical idea that he can single handedly conduct a huge and expensive deportation process? Btw–deportation is rapidly plummeting in the polling—amongst Republicans.

    He never stated he would “single handedly” do any such thing. And BTW, I’m a Republican and deporting illegals is not plummeting in my polling. There is nothing “radical” about deporting illegals who come here without being screened for terrorist ties, criminal background and diseases and they need to be deported. Immediately. If you believe that to be hugely expensive just see how expensive in lives and treasure it is to allow them to stay.

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  158. Nota bene, re #153 & #156 above: I claim no special expertise as a parliamentarian. They don’t teach that in law school, nor test for it on the bar exam, and I’ve never run a large deliberative body under Robert’s or any other rules.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  159. I didn’t know the Danube went through the Ljubljana red-light district.

    nk (dbc370)

  160. And here’s National Review’s take on Solomon Yue’s proposal to switch to Robert’s Rules.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  161. Of the four, I like Sanders the best. He is the only one with pretensions of a moral compass, which, in his case, points in the wrong direction. ThOR.

    Bernie Sanders is a dangerous old man who espouses a political/economic philosophy that was responsible for the murder, incarceration and repression of more people in the last century than all the wars ever fought in the history of mankind. That’s not a moral compass, that’s pure evil. And what makes him even more diabolical is he comes off like your cute, harmless grandfather but he really represents hell.

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  162. The end of that NR piece holds out hope that since John Sununu will certainly not be the head of the Convention Rules Committee (as he was for Romney in 2012), New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and Nevada might be stripped of their absolutely indefensible “we get to go first” status. Hey, maybe Cruz and Trump delegates could agree on that, right?

    Beldar (fa637a)

  163. there is no such thing as John Sununu

    preposterous idea

    happyfeet (831175)

  164. HRC’s unfavorables are still climbing, and she and her surrogates keep insulting Sanders and his supporters. One thinks that the Clinton people would have learned about the idiocy of taunting people you’re trying to make go away quietly when Ol’ Snakehead Carville snarked about “dragging a hundred dollar bill through a trailer park,” which was probably *the* most important event leading to Bubba’s impeachment until he actually lied under oath.

    M. Scott Eiland (1edade)

  165. Among their U.S. Senate colleagues on both sides of the aisle, Clinton is best-liked, prickly independent Sanders quite a bit behind her, and Cruz is absolutely worst-liked.

    Feature. Not a bug.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  166. As a liberal, I just wish that Iran and North Korea could have nukes.
    That would make the world a better place.

    Said nobody other than aprhael.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  167. what bizarre ‘den of scum and villainy’ would conclude that,

    narciso (732bc0)

  168. is ok love wins

    you have to believe that

    happyfeet (831175)

  169. Hoagie ™,

    I see the sociopathic impulse, which is all too common in pols, as the fundamental evil. It is a shame Ted Bundy didn’t choose to run for public office. He’d of gone far.

    ThOR (a52560)

  170. let’s kick the beat

    happyfeet (831175)

  171. Collectivists always require increasing amounts of Govt Power and Tax Dollars to fund their ideas. All of it down via the barrel of a gun pointed at you.

    By default all Collectivists are totalitarians at heart and always want less freedom for the rest of us while have monopoly control on power to boot. (** Only monopolies these Lefties want are Govt ones).

    This is why Collectivism is evil. Bernie Sanders is evil.

    Rodney King's Spirit (db6706)

  172. where’s Mr. Jester did he need a nap after being so mean to our friend Mr. ropelight?

    my goodness i was so taken aback by the vituperation it makes you wonder if love will win after all

    but of course it will

    happyfeet (831175)

  173. Yeah ThOR, but when those pols get power those sociopathic impulses turn to genocide. And the mere fact this commie douche comes off like a cute little old man is truly diabolical.

    Hoagie ™ (e4fcd6)

  174. Hope you’re right Patterico, but I fear our GOP overlords will cave and decide Trump is less of a threat to the business of Washington than Cruz is. All we can do is keep fighting for a return to constitutional and limited government.

    crazy (cde091)

  175. Mr. Drudge is awesome like a possum on a blossum

    don’t ever change Matt

    love wins my brother

    happyfeet (831175)

  176. While Cruz has high unfavorables (but still much lower than Trump’s unbelievably high negatives) I believe that a lot of the public still doesn’t know much about him, and therefore the potential is there to significantly improve. The same cannot be said of Trump or Hillary. I also think the “lyin Ted Cruz” thing has taken a toll. Hillary will probably look to continue that theme if Cruz is the nominee so his team better have a way to deal with that.

    In Hillary’s case I think there is not much chance of a major image change that would bring down her own high negatives at this point, although I may be naive in saying that given how the media will be doing anything they can to help her.

    IMO the bottom line is there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about a Cruz-Clinton race.

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

  177. Listening to the customers in our cafe, we only hear passion for Trump. These are Dems, Inds and GOP split into thirds. No one ever mentions Cruz. One old hippy is for Hillary. Many are new voters, but won’t vote if Trump doesn’t make it. Listening to these people – they have no intention of voting for anyone else. Most didn’t vote in 2012 because they didn’t see a difference between Romney and Obama. (Which was quite a shock to the wife and I.) What I am trying to say is that this is not a normal election. So If Cruz gets the nomination, I don’t see him getting many votes in this rural area. These are just not normal times.

    EldonH (e0559f)

  178. Philip Bump in the WaPo wrote today regarding “The amazing variation in the cost of Republican delegates.” Worth a click just for the comparison graphics.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  179. Ha ha ha ha — Good one, Patterico:

    You skipped the obvious April Fools day to publish your prank on 4/20!!

    nosh (9d728b)

  180. Mr. Trump has the delegates for to make America great again

    Mr. Cruz pines and pines for these delegates

    all he has are the pooper ones

    happyfeet (831175)

  181. stanky pooper ones

    flatulent and dour

    happyfeet (831175)

  182. My mom, who now lives in College Station, says she plays bridge with ladies who say they won’t vote if Trump doesn’t get the nod.

    I have no idea why.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  183. Urge your mom to bid a No-Trump slam.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  184. scraping delegates (who many people voted for, but not to go for Cruz)
    does not translate into a win in the general election

    steveg (fed1c9)

  185. i lived in bryan a little bit when i was little there was a college there

    i remember i was in class one time – a serious class what I paid for – and we all had to wait while this douchebag brought a stupid collie around and we were all supposed to fondle it or something

    then they made a bonfire and everyone died the end

    happyfeet (831175)

  186. Lack of willingness to put together a competent, hard-working campaign organization and whining about the inevitable consequences of said lack of professionalism is certainly not going to translate into a win against the Clinton crime family.

    M. Scott Eiland (1edade)

  187. Lack of willingness to put together a competent, hard-working campaign organization and whining about the inevitable consequences of said lack of professionalism is certainly not going to translate into a win against the Clinton crime family.” – M. Scott Eiland

    Great comment.

    On top of all his other deficiencies, we add feckless whiner. I thought his pitch was that he’d be a strong, effective leader? Was I wrong? Without this claim to substance, what remains? We’ve already had 8 years with a feckless whiner, who wants more? He really is Kim Kardashian.

    ThOR (a52560)

  188. Kimmy K is way different than Mr. The Donald for example Kim has mommy issues and has no interest in making America great again whereas Mr. The Donald wants to make America great again

    this is obvious to anyone who is willing to do the analysis

    happyfeet (831175)

  189. But “willingness” is the wrong word. It gives him far too much credit. “Willingness” attributes to deliberation what was, in fact, a clueless oversight.

    ThOR (a52560)

  190. let’s all sleep on it maybe tomorrow we can all be super positive about Mr. Trump whilst disdaining the Ted Cruz

    happyfeet (831175)

  191. 65. …So tell me, how do you make a hurricane?

    Milhouse (87c499) — 4/20/2016 @ 8:52 am

    Squeeze the juice of half a lime into a cocktail shaker over ice.

    Add 2 oz. of light rum, 2 oz. of dark rum, 2 oz. of passion fruit juice, 1 oz. of orange juice, a tablespoon of simple syrup, and a tablespoon of grenadine.

    Shake well.

    Strain into a hurricane glass…

    http://www.target.com/p/libbey-15-oz-glass-hurricane-four-piece-set/-/A-50247269?ref=tgt_adv_XS000000&AFID=bing_pla_df&CPNG=PLA_Dining%2BShopping&adgroup=SC_Dining&LID=700000001230728pbs&network=s&device=c&querystring=hurricane%20cocktail%20glass&gclid=%5B*GCLID*%5D&gclsrc=ds

    …and garnish with a cherry and an orange slice.

    5 or 10 of these might just get you through an Obama SOTU speech.

    Steve57 (066fdf)

  192. Happy,

    It’s a hat, not a world view. Kimmy’s hats are cuter.

    ThOR (a52560)

  193. Shorty brings new meaning to the saying: That man is all hat.

    ThOR (a52560)

  194. 5 or 10 of these might just get you through an Obama SOTU speech.

    How many to get through a Michelle 0bama SOTU speech? I think you’d need another splash or rum, or maybe cointreau or triple sec or something like that.

    Milhouse (87c499)

  195. Kim Kardashian has better hair. And more testosterone. And takes a nicer piece of ass to bed with her. Ok, hers, but you know …. And best of all, she buys American when she goes spouse shopping.

    nk (dbc370)

  196. Every one of the 168 members of the RNC who are at the spring meeting in Hollywood, Florida, right now will be delegates to the convention in Cleveland.

    Cruz and Kasich are there in person. Donald Trump’s campaign sent Manafort and Ben Carson.

    That’s smart, given the audience, but given what it says about how toxic Trump himself would be in such company:

    Sad!

    Beldar (fa637a)

  197. The Cruz campaign and two Cruz superPACs are flush:

    Mr. Cruz, a senator from Texas, had $8.8 million in the bank at the end of March. He raised $12.5 million during the month, nearly three times as much as Mr. Kasich. Mr. Cruz’s top rival, Donald Trump, is largely funding his campaign with his own money and hadn’t yet filed with the FEC.

    Mr. Cruz is backed by a growing network of super PACs that raised at least $10 million last month and had more than $11 million left to spend.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  198. “How many to get through a Michelle 0bama SOTU speech?”

    Milhouse,

    That would require some type of Class I controlled substance in addition to a rather copious amount of alcohol. Emigration would be a healthier choice.

    Rick Ballard (857dca)

  199. Under the Robert’s, after voting begins, it would require a vote of the majority of delegates to reopen the nominations

    What is all of this? Where does anyone get the idea that someone needs to be nominated in order to be voted for? The rules don’t, and never have, said that. And why would anyone want to waste time with a nominating speech once you have reached multiple ballots? You want to float a new name: there’s Twitter. And the press.

    Sammy Finkelman (a5988d)

  200. GOP front-runner says his campaign is evolving; coming soon are policy addresses, teleprompters and a speechwriter:

    Mr. Trump will deliver the [promised upcoming] speech [on the relationship between economics and national security] with teleprompters, which he has often derided. This week, a pair were set up in his office, which he was using to practice. Still, he won’t use them at his rallies.

    Color me skeptical, but we’ll see. He didn’t release a prepared version of his AIPAC speech that he gave with a teleprompter, but he seemed to be wandering regularly, and far, off-script in that performance.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  201. what I hate is that no matter who wins whether it’s Ted or Donald, some people are gonna be sad

    what we need is for LOVE to win

    happyfeet (a037ad) — 4/20/2016 @ 9:15 am

    Sorry hon, but Ron Paul ain’t running this year, and Pat Paulsen passed away some time ago.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  202. i think it’s hilter’s birthday

    happyfeet (a037ad) — 4/20/2016 @ 11:01 am

    April 20, 1889 in a village called Braunau am Inn, near Linz, in Austria. To Alois and Klara Hitler. Alois was a minor customs official, Klara was a housewife.

    What was your point placing the announcement on this thread, Happyfeet?

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  203. Who knew a tour of the Danube would involve so many stream-of-consciousness Trumpkin advertisements? I don’t think this will be a very popular excursion.

    Beldar (fa637a) — 4/20/2016 @ 1:53 pm

    A three hour tour.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  204. Listening to the customers in our cafe, we only hear passion for Trump. These are Dems, Inds and GOP split into thirds. No one ever mentions Cruz. One old hippy is for Hillary. Many are new voters, but won’t vote if Trump doesn’t make it. Listening to these people – they have no intention of voting for anyone else. Most didn’t vote in 2012 because they didn’t see a difference between Romney and Obama.

    Sounds like desperate people clinging to desperate options, desperate measures.

    I’d be more disturbed by their falling for a huckster and blowhard from New York if a pathological liar from Arkansas via Illinois wasn’t considered so competitive in November. That all by itself illustrates just how screwed up this society has become in the era of “Goddamn America.”

    The most reliable, mature candidate of the bunch, Ted Cruz, doesn’t get as many visceral reactions (ie, positive ones) because Mother Nature didn’t bless him with the most photogenic of faces and most impressive of voices. Such superficial traits are regrettably even more crucial for a conservative since he (or she) already comes with a built-in liability in the context of — or as judged by — an increasingly Euro-sclerotic USA. A society where mindless political correctness and sloppy liberalism knows no bounds.

    Ultimately, sane, sensible and practical people will have only one vote they can rely upon, only one vote they may be forced to make in the future: Voting with their feet and the moving van. In that regard they’ll be similar to all the immigrants from Europe, China and Japan who fled their native lands back in the late 1800s, early 1900s.

    Moreover, they won’t be terribly different from the well-off, two-faced couple currently in the White House, vis-a-vie which schools they sent their two children to, which places they favor for vacations, which neighborhoods they’ll buy a home in and retire to.

    Mark (f0df8f)

  205. I love that Mark’s solutions always involve other people moving.

    JD (fbcc5a)

  206. JD, that ain’t a solution as much as it’s hard, cold reality.

    Mark (f0df8f)

  207. I see I’ve ventured onto a site full of people that really do believe the front runner is a sniveling coward and that Cruz will(has) run the government Constitutionally.

    Wow

    MMinLamesa (d9f645)

  208. I suspect there are lots of things that make this drive-by troll say Wow.

    JD (fbcc5a)

  209. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cpqoVqqDGk

    check this brilliant ad out

    jrt (bc7456)

  210. Talk radio hosts crowing over Trump’s widespread support among Republican women in New York are using this as an opportunity to discredit Trump opponents who rail against his alleged misogyny. After five years of living under the shadow of the “war on women” meme, their celebration of liberal bafflement over this statistic is understandable, but it should not be misconstrued as evidence that this big lie is being laid to rest.

    Given the cultural differences between New York Republicans and “redstate” Republicans, I am more inclined to believe that New York women voted like their “lady parts” depended on it (the term was used by team Obama during his 2012 campaign). In other words, these voters prefer a nominee whose opposition to abortion is shallow and insincere rather than one who really means it. Those who are repelled by Trump’s pandering on this issue probably feel more inclined to vote for John Kasich, but if your main goal is to stop authentic pro-life candidate from getting the nomination, voting for Trump is the most viable strategy.

    During a 1999 interview with Tim Russert, Donald Trump attributed his support of partial birth abortion to his “New York background.” We may never know how many votes Ted Cruz lost due to his critique of “New York values”, but conservatives are making a huge mistake when they overlook the role these values played in compelling New York women to vote against the candidate who many regard as the biggest threat to their right to choose.

    Tony (ff2fe4)

  211. I suspect there are lots of things that make this drive-by troll say Wow.

    JD (fbcc5a) — 4/21/2016 @ 4:51 am

    I think there are one or two people who have posted with numerous screen names. The Trump troll posts are all remarkably similar for their totally fact-free “arguments” which typically consist of no more than a couple of sentences, often combined with name calling directed at Cruz or Cruz supporters.

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

  212. If Hillary wins – we all lose
    If Trump wins – we all lose
    If Bernie wins – we all lose

    Joe - From Texas (debac0)

  213. STOP AND IMAGINE WHAT A HYPERSENSITIVE MAN LIKE TRUMP MIGHT DO WITH THE POWER OF THE PRESIDENCY.

    “Just imagine it: a hypersensitive man in the White House might start off his administration by flipping off the opposition with the words “I won.” He could tell intransigent fellow party members, “Don’t think we’re not keeping score, brother.” He could “joke” about auditing his enemies, and then look away when the IRS does just that. He could singlehandedly abandon a war his predecessor had won, purely out of partisan spite. He could rearrange the Middle East and then set it alight, to better match his socialist Ivy League faculty break room worldview. He could shaft Israel and hand Iran — Iran! — the Bomb. He could let Vladimir Putin overrun much of his neighboring countries and wide swatches of the Middle East. He could ignore a terrorist attack to go play golf. He could gin-up race riots in America.

    Yeah, I know that all sounds like science fiction, but just stop and imagine what a hypersensitive man could do with the power of the presidency.”

    http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/231956/

    Colonel Haiku (903a0b)

  214. nicely said Mr. Colonel

    Mr. Trump has been very much underestimated as a candidate by the harvardtrash set it stands to reason they’re underestimating what he’ll accomplish as president as well.

    happyfeet (831175)

  215. http://www.paulnehlen.com
    Dump the speaker.

    mg (31009b)

  216. 215. So–Trump would be four to eight more years of the same, only with smaller hands?

    M. Scott Eiland (1edade)

  217. So–Trump would be four to eight more years of the same, only with smaller hands?

    M. Scott Eiland (1edade) — 4/21/2016 @ 10:42 am

    Think of mom-hands, much as Obama in his mom-jeans.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  218. 196. …How many to get through a Michelle 0bama SOTU speech? I think you’d need another splash or rum, or maybe cointreau or triple sec or something like that.

    Milhouse (87c499.) — 4/20/2016 @ 6:48 pm

    No amount of Hurricanes will get you through one of those.

    The answer to that question is sort of like the answer to the question, “What drink goes with Haggis?” Haggis is customarily served as either a dinner entree with the traditional “neeps and tatties” or as part of a full Scottish breakfast.

    The answer is easy. Scotch. Lots of Scotch. If you start around noon you’ll be ready for Haggis at dinner. If you discover someone plans on serving you Haggis for breakfast, if you drink enough Scotch the night before they won’t be able to wake you up and you’ll sleep right through it.

    So, the discerning cocktail enthusiast will take a similar approach when confronted with the certainty of a Michell Obama SOTU speech. Again, easy answer. Skip the fruit juice and syrup crap. Start chugging the rum straight from the bottle as soon as the election results slip you hard news Michelle Obama will be delivering a SOTU. Drain the bottle. Repeat. And you’ll be ready for it when it comes to pass.

    Moving on to Trump’s chances, a couple of other commentators have crunched the numbers and agree with our host. Cruz will be the nominee. Math is involved, and it’s convincing.

    http://www.redstate.com/diary/creinstein/2016/04/20/new-york-never-mattered-ted-cruz-won-presidency/

    New York never mattered, Ted Cruz won the Presidency

    The math is certain, it’s time to move on to fighting Hillary.

    …Whats left now?

    California 172
    Indiana 57
    New Jersey 51
    Washington 44
    Maryland 38
    Nebraska 36
    West Virginia 34
    South Dakota 29
    Connecticut 28
    Oregon 28
    Montana 27
    New Mexico 24
    Rhode Island 19
    Pennsylvania 17 +54

    Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list

    Those 422 delegates constitute 64% of the remaining delegates. Trump has never done that well. He won’t do it now, as author Michael Harrington goes on to explain.

    I’ll leave the discussion of the other states to Harrington, but I’ll throw in my two cents worth on Kali. As you can see Kali is the real prize. That state has just over 25% of the delegates that remain to be divvied up. But even if Trump wins the statewide race he only gets the 10 at large delegates and, I believe, the 3 RNC appointed delegates. The real haul of 159 delegates are awarded in 53 separate, independent, and simultaneous winner-take-all congressional district races. Trump simply doesn’t have the organization to even be present in all those CDs. Trump only appointed a state political director a few days ago. Cruz had his organization up and running for over a year; he has the state-wide presence.

    If Trump’s organization in Kali is an example of his business skill then everything about him is a a fraud.

    Cruz’s Kali political director is a former GOP chairman. He’s a man who knows how to put together a state-wide organization. Meanwhile Trump’s political director is a Sacramento-based GOP strategist. I suppose if you are going to wait until the last minute you can’t be choosy. This guy Clarke seems to be well respected and is no doubt good at what he does and therefore constitutes the best-of-the-rest. But what he does has never included actually putting together a ground game. Not only won’t Trump do well in large chunks of the state outside the greater LA and SF areas but it is practically certain he will not even be able to submit a complete slate of delegates by the May 7 deadline.

    Listen up, Trumanzees. Kali is one state where you can’t b*tch and moan and falsely accuse Lion Ted of “stealing” Trump’s delegates. Each candidate chooses his own delegates. The problem is Trumpy the insult clown can’t read and understand simple rules. He really needed to have that list submitted to the Kali Secretary of State, like, yesterday. But Trumpy just woke up to the fact that he needed name his delegates, like, yesterday. And he just started putting together an operations to find delegates almost literally, like, yesterday. Cruz meanwhile can read and understand rules and got his slate of delegates in a while back. Every other candidate could understand the rules. Just not Trumpy the insult clown.

    It took Cruz’s guy, who has the experience, five months to put together a slate of 159 delegates (three delegates and three alternate delegates per each of Kali’s 53 CDs). Trump’s disorganized and chaotic campaign left his state political director, who does not have the hands-on experience, about a month to accomplish the same task, and now he has a little over two weeks remaining. Figure the odds of success. And if Trump doesn’t have a list of delegates, all six delegates, for a particular CD then even if he wins in that CD he doesn’t get any delegates.

    This is a self-inflicted wound of yuuuge proportions. Not that it won’t stop the Trumpanzees from echoing the Trumptard line that “Lion Ted” stole Trump’s delegates. Through, once again, superior management and organization. But in fact it was just Trump once again shooting himself in the foot which, when you think about it, was not easy to do. For two reasons. One, because the need to start organizing early would have been obvious to anyone who ever even ran for student council in high school. And, two, given Trump’s freakishly small hands with those stubby sausage-like fingers his feet must be so tiny as to make a difficult target.

    Normally I wouldn’t link to NRO as I’ve lost considerable respect for that rag ever since WFB died but author Jeremy Carl relies heavily on the analysis at the 538 blog which is reliable. And he arrives at the same conclusion as Pat and Harrington.

    Nothing Changed Yesterday—And Trump Is Still Not on the Path to Nomination

    …Trump looks to have taken 90 delegates and 60 percent of the vote, somewhat better than projections, although most election-eve forecasts had him taking at least 85 or so of New York’s 95 delegates (Olsen had him pegged for 87).

    But despite his victory, Trump got only a very modest bump from New York last night. And despite the breathless TV and print commentary from our New York–centered media, he still faces huge obstacles if he wants to get a sufficient number of delegates to be nominated on the first ballot. And if he is not nominated on the first ballot, given Cruz’s wildly successful delegate strategy, it is unlikely he will be nominated at all.

    In fact, according to the analysis of the widely-respected 538.com, Trump actually fell just short of the number of delegates he needed in New York to put himself on the path to the magic number of 1,237.

    And, though he should have a good week next week when Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote, he will need a New York–level performance, not just a victory, if he wants to substantially improve his nomination odds…

    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434267/donald-trump-new-york-primary-win-changes-nothing

    All hail President Cruz.

    Steve57 (066fdf)

  219. Steve57:

    I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in Mr. Herrington’s prognostications. Here he is, just 10 days before the column you link:

    http://www.redstate.com/diary/creinstein/2016/04/10/ted-cruz-won-nomination/

    Yes, Ted Cruz can win some of these small Republican population CD’s. Now it is unlikely that Ted really takes a lot of them, with Kasich as a spoiler. But it is potentially possible Trump can end up 3rd in some CD’s. Not so many as I would wish would happen, but enough to make the Pundits, the Yes Men, and the Yes Men (doh! I mean pollsters, media, and Trump team) to all say that Trump got shellacked in his home turf. Trump may win the popular vote, but his delegate total is not going to meet his expectations and those silly Yes Men will all be saying that Ted Cruz is going to make it a Contested Convention.

    (emphasis mine)

    So 10 days earlier he was proclaiming how Ted was going to get so many delegates in NY that EVERYONE would be saying how Trump got “shellacked [sic]in his home turf”. Funny how he doesn’t mention that in his new column. You know, come clean about being 100% wrong. Buy he’s for your guy, so his word must be gold, right?

    prowlerguy (fa36d8)

  220. @ JRT (#211): Thanks for that link!

    @ Steve57: Thanks for the info re the outlook in CA. Obviously it would take longer to be careful in vetting and choosing among potential supporters whom a campaign might ask to stand as its candidate’s delegate; picking among unvetted volunteers would entail large risks of bad guesses. But from Trump standpoint, given that it’s too late to do a careful vetting and choosing, what’s to prevent him from doing a sloppy one, just to make sure he’s got a full slate for each CA congressional district? Are there sign-up deadlines that Trump’s already missed, or can he still catch up (albeit with less carefully vetted proposed delegate slates)?

    Beldar (fa637a)

  221. @ prowlerguy: This cycle, no one’s predictions have been worth a damn. Trump, Kasich, and Cruz won their home states; Rubio didn’t, and in hindsight that’s the only surprise. Recall, however, the predictions that the Trump campaign was making before the March 1 SEC-Super Tuesday primaries, which Trump was supposed to sweep, maybe even including Texas? From CNN on Feb 25: Of all the states, Texas was the one Ted Cruz was not supposed to have to worry about:

    As reviled as he may be back in Washington, Cruz has been adored here at tea party rallies and Republican conventions ever since he first upset the political establishment with a shocking come-from-behind victory in 2012. In his home state, Cruz often comes across as a rock star, a leader so admired by the grassroots that his endorsement in legislative primaries is the closest thing to a gold standard in state politics.

    But thanks to Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, Cruz’s shot at becoming President may end in Texas.

    Cruz, despite his appeal as a native son ideologically in sync with a ruby red Republican base, could very well lose the Texas primary next week, a setback that would strike at the core of Cruz’s southern political strategy.

    Of course, as it turned out, more than 1.2M Texans voted for Cruz in Texas, giving him a Cruz-point margin even in a then-five-man field. Cruz’ margin over Trump in Texas (482k) was nearly as large as Trump’s total number of voters in New York (525k). Moreover, as in so many other states, Trump made essentially no effort to try to get Trump supporters selected for the Texas delegates he won, meaning that the benefits he might have secured from his distant second-place finish in Cruz’ home state will evaporate after the first ballot.

    So just keep patting yourself on the back and reassuring yourself that your guy is still on a roll, still on a great flight path — even though he’s too chicken to debate and he’s hiring “professionals” to completely restructure his campaign more than two-thirds of the way through the primaries. We’ll see how things turn out in due course.

    In the meantime, though, we’re fast approaching hard statutory deadlines for getting on the November ballot as an independent or third-party candidate, meaning with each passing week, the odds of Trump being able to mount a credible rump/boycott threat are dropping. There will be no having Trumpkin cake and eating it too. And it seems to be that despite his new handlers’ efforts, Trump will be Trump, meaning he’s going to continue to step on his own, er, feet even if he’s hiding out and avoiding a face-to-face debate with Cruz, or even a three-way debate with Cruz and Kasich, like the sniveling coward he’s repeatedly proved himself to be.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  222. Blearg, what an editing error! “Cruz-point margin” ought to have been “seventeen-point margin.” If that’s a Freudian slip, it’s still an odd one.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  223. Mr. Trump!

    He’s on a mission – got the enemy wishin they’d stayed at home instead of fightin

    evil moves quick but trump moves faster than light – light shining from your illumination

    trump vs. evil equals

    confrontation!

    happyfeet (831175)

  224. Keep clinging to those slender reeds of hope, prowlerguy.

    I’ve noticed that reading for comprehension isn’t your strong point. In fact, it seems to be against your religion. I said the math was compelling. Nor did I provide Harrington’s analysis in a vacuum.

    Steve57 (066fdf)

  225. Beldar, the May 7 deadline is the only one I’m aware of.

    …But from Trump standpoint, given that it’s too late to do a careful vetting and choosing, what’s to prevent him from doing a sloppy one, just to make sure he’s got a full slate for each CA congressional district?

    Given Trump’s lack of organization and late start, I expect he’ll do a sloppy job and an incomplete job. His hastily thrown together state organization will have to get whatever delegates they can where they can as quickly as they can, and Trump still won’t have a full slate.

    Kali is going to be an enigma. It hasn’t mattered to the results of GOP primary since the Goldwater campaign. The Kali primary occurs so late in the primary season, when one candidate has a lock on the nomination, that no one has put any effort into the state in 52 years. 1976 was the lone exception of course. I would have thought Ford and Reagan would have scrapped over those delegates but former governor Reagan swept the state. It looks like Ford didn’t even try to compete there. Perhaps Ford thought he had a lock on the nomination; that he had knocked Reagan out of the race. Dunno.

    The bottom line is that there is a lot about winning a primary in Kali during a hotly contested GOP race that nobody knows. For instance Trump’s support is largely confined, as I said, to the SF and LA metro areas. These are also the most heavily Democratic areas. There are Republicans there, though. But only a few. Trying to find registered Republicans in Nancy Pelosi’s district is like trying to find a needle in a landfill. And what complicates it even further is that most of the moderate Republicans, particularly in those heavily liberal areas, have changed their registration to “No Party Preference.” They can’t vote in the GOP primary.

    How do these factors break toward Cruz or Trump? Nobody has a clue. But logically whoever is best organized and has had a presence in every single CD and has learned the lay of the land will get the better results. And that’s Cruz.

    Trump’s Kali state campaign is still trying to get up and running. I expect them to do a sloppy and incomplete job trying to find voters, let alone delegates, and organizing to get them to the polls. I don’t know what to compare it to. I suppose the best sports analogy would be a team going into the locker room at the Super Bowl up by 21 points and just not coming out for the second half because they figure it’s a lock. Then they come racing out at the two minute warning in a panic because someone turned on a TV to find out the other side has been racking up touchdown upon touchdown followed by two point conversions (Damn those Detroit Lyin’s for cheating like that!) while they were uncorking the champagne.

    Steve57 (066fdf)

  226. Steve57 (066fdf) — 4/21/2016 @ 9:50 pm

    what’s to prevent him from doing a sloppy one, just to make sure he’s got a full slate for each CA congressional district?

    Given Trump’s lack of organization and late start, I expect he’ll do a sloppy job and an incomplete job. His hastily thrown together state organization will have to get whatever delegates they can where they can as quickly as they can, and Trump still won’t have a full slate.

    All he has to do is contact people who wrote into his campaign, or bought his hats, or attended rallies, or inquire about doing so, and ask them for other names of people who live in cerftain geographical areas, all without a thought of bcoming a delegate, and see if they can go to the convention. A person may not need to be a registered Republican to be a delegate, although ehe needs to find out if they’ll be open to a credentials challenge..

    They’ll need a good Congressional district atlas. They can narrow things down by Zip code – which overlap, but there’s only a limited number of CDs in a zip code, and the biggest multiple CD Zip codes will be in cities where they can just use a street atlas or Google maps to see where an address is. They still will need to question people cloesely, but this can be done in a week or less.

    I suppose the question is, is anybody working for him capable of doing this simple job competently?

    For instance Trump’s support is largely confined, as I said, to the SF and LA metro areas. These are also the most heavily Democratic areas. There are Republicans there, though. But only a few.

    They would have to do direct mail and.or telephone calls. They can buy a list. There may be enough time for the campaigns to figure out what they need to do.

    Trying to find registered Republicans in Nancy Pelosi’s district is like trying to find a needle in a landfill.

    A mailing list is probablky for sale.

    And what complicates it even further is that most of the moderate Republicans, particularly in those heavily liberal areas, have changed their registration to “No Party Preference.” They can’t vote in the GOP primary.

    Trump does better is less conservative areas. It may not really be more moderate people, but less politically involved people.

    How do these factors break toward Cruz or Trump?

    Now Kasich is hoping he’ll get a burst of publicity and that Cruz will do very, very, badly in the upcoming primaries. The media hasn’t really noticed the third pl;ace finish in New York, but they may notice a bad finish in several states on April 26.

    In New York Kasich did not exploit polls that showed him (slightly) ahead of Cruz (he came in way ahead of Cruz) – and in New York, second place in a CD counted if the winner got less than 50%. Not so in California.

    If Kasich had exploited such polls, he’d have gotten some votes that went to Trump because the person in question didn’t like Cruz, and didn’t know any other candidates and Trump might have been pulled below 50% in many places or even statewide.

    Sammy Finkelman (a5988d)

  227. That’s cute, Sammy. I’m sure Trumpy the insult clown thought it would be just that simple, too.

    Steve57 (066fdf)

  228. Steve57,

    The warm body count for California is 159 delegates and around 106 alternates for around 265 total. Complete alternate coverage would entail a total of 318 warm bodies but Trumpy the Clown actually needs only five warm bodies per district and they need to be able to pay their own way or at least beg their own way. The Trumpy the Clown Disorganization is quite capable of mismanaging the requisite delegate herding to the extent of turning 100 delegates into 65 actual warm bodies at the convention.

    Rick Ballard (4a9e02)

  229. 229. Steve57 (066fdf) — 4/22/2016 @ 5:59 am

    That’s cute, Sammy. I’m sure Trumpy the insult clown thought it would be just that simple, too.

    The key thing is not to start woth Congressional districts and look for delegate candidates, but find possible delegate candidates and look to match them with districts. The same sort of tactic would work for gathering signatures when they have be listed by district – make a radio ad or send mail askingg people to come in to a certain address, and then put them on the right paper. They would get alot opof what they needed.

    In Pennsylvania Trump’s campaign is not doing anything. There are 162 delegate candidates for 27×3 = 81 positions but probably not matched up by district. The candidate a delegate prefers (the are not bound) is not listed on the ballot. All of the Trump delegate candidates seem to have done it all on their own – they are lone wolves – by the February 16 deadline. Two of them got on a ropeline to see Trump last week in Pittsburgh asking for campaign help – he told them to contact his campaign manager but by yesterday they had heard nothing back. The Rubio campaign got 3 delegate candidates in every district – one for every spot. Cruz has found 26 people whom he says will stick with him and published the list. Kasich is trying to run up support among likely delegates, but who knows what he’s doing to elect any of them. Phil English, a former Congressman in the orthwest corner of the state is running for deegate – he may be for Kasich – a newspaper published his cell phone causing to be deluged with calls from voters wanting to know for whom he is for – he says he wants a slate that can win but says he is uncommitted right now. I suppose he’s at least anti-Trump.

    Some voters are trying to memorize the names of the delegates they will vote or maybe take a piece of paper with them. The statewide winner gets 17 votes. 18×3 = 54 are selected by dostrict.

    Sammy Finkelman (a5988d)

  230. Rick, with all respect, I’m pretty sure of my numbers.

    But yeah Trump can start from whatever and go on to d*ck everything away even worse.

    Steve57 (4bd90d)

  231. Mr. Trump would never do that

    happyfeet (831175)

  232. You predicted Obama would lose twice. i am going to go all in on Hillary

    jjohn (96477f)


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