Patterico's Pontifications

2/23/2016

Nevada Open Thread

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 5:14 pm



Trump will win. Another pointless battle for second between Cruz and Rubio.

UPDATE: Reports from Twitter describe utter chaos.

UPDATE x2:

162 Responses to “Nevada Open Thread”

  1. Yay.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  2. as goes nevada

    happyfeet (8e2eaf)

  3. So goes the toilet.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  4. I really don’t understand Trump voters. This is like expecting Bebe Rebozo to clean up after Nixon.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  5. There are a lot of Trump supporters in Despicable Me.
    Some have 2 eyes.
    Some have 3 eyes.
    Some have 1 eye.

    John Hitchcock (8f8466)

  6. Here’s a starting point:

    Last poll I heard was
    Trump 45
    Rubio 19
    Cruz 17

    John Hitchcock (8f8466)

  7. Why does Trump seem like a natural favorite son of Sin City?

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  8. Let’s hope that what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas!

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  9. Obvious similarities:

    They’re both mob-connected.

    John Hitchcock (8f8466)

  10. well adelson is backing rubio, if memory serves, or his organization is,

    narciso (732bc0)

  11. Why not just change the name of this blog to little green footballs and get it over with

    Mr Pink (454b25)

  12. well adelson is backing rubio, if memory serves, or his organization is,

    Yes, but he’s not giving out the bucks like he did last time.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  13. Awwww snap! No you didn’t!

    Navin R Johnson (8ee44c)

  14. Because, Pinky, Chuckles with no Johnson is a dirtbag liar with a demigod complex, while Patterico is an honest man.

    John Hitchcock (8f8466)

  15. Matt Walsh understands Trump voters.

    DRJ (15874d)

  16. Mr Pink, Charles Johnson of LGF is a left wing nut. I’m not following your analogy.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  17. When do the polls close?

    And from what I recall of the polling in SC before the Primary, Cruz and Rubio both marginally outperformed their polling, and Trump came up marginally short.

    John Hitchcock (8f8466)

  18. Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz…

    jrt for Cruz (bc7456)

  19. AR, Cruz is no Obama, nor is he a Trump. He is not going to heft lots of unneeded blame on a goat and send it running into the wilderness. Cruz is a man of integrity.

    John Hitchcock (8f8466)

  20. AR, your #15 said he underperformed. I showed he outperformed. You came back with, well he still sucks.

    You’re like the band manager’s girlfriend on Josie and the Pussycats.

    John Hitchcock (8f8466)

  21. Why, AR? Because Rubio has been caught lying about his agenda and lying about Cruz? Because Trump is a well-known liar extraordinaire?

    John Hitchcock (8f8466)

  22. Because, Pinky, Chuckles with no Johnson is a dirtbag liar with a demigod complex, while Patterico is an honest man.

    John Hitchcock (8f8466) — 2/23/2016 @ 5:39 pm

    No point, John. Pink is apparently the typical drive-by poster, a shoot from the lip sort. I’m willing to bet he has no idea what LGF or who Charles Johnson even is.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  23. Betty, Judy, Josie and those hot Pussycats… they make me horny… on Saturday morny… girls of cartoo-ins will leave me in ruins… I want to be Betty’s Barney.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  24. Doesn’t sound like an entirely bad thing.

    A.R. (cc5ce0) — 2/23/2016 @ 5:55 pm

    The comparison was made: Patterico=LGF. That isn’t your position as well, is it?

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  25. I want to be Betty’s Barney.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 2/23/2016 @ 5:55 pm

    I kinda fancied Thelma on “Scooby Doo”.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  26. No, not that extreme.

    A.R. (cc5ce0) — 2/23/2016 @ 5:59 pm

    I’m sure you’ll find out when the bannings, excommunications and the bunker-style insanity starts.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  27. Rolling the bones with trump
    crapping out with the establishment
    hitting the long shot with Cruz
    Cruz/West and preserve the court.

    mg (31009b)

  28. JRT (#11), thanks for the link to the short Cruz clip from ABC News, which consists of Cruz saying:

    “I’m not willing to gamble my daughters’ future with Donald Trump. The truth of the matter is that if Donald Trump became president, nobody knows what the heck he would do. He doesn’t know what the heck he would do.

    This is a profound truth.

    But we do have clues about what Trump is likely to do, and how he’d act. These clues don’t rely on anything Trump says now — or said yesterday, which is likely to be the opposite, or what he might say tomorrow, which is likely to be a third thing altogether.

    First: It’ll be poorly managed. It takes a special type of spectacular mismanagement to drive your entire corporate empire, bought with a fortune handed to you by your daddy, through the bankruptcy courts four separate times. This is the biggest of Donald Trump’s big lies: When he pretends to be a competent businessman.

    Second: It’ll be continuously vulgar. Our country will be bathed in filth that originates from the Oval Office.

    Third: Nothing will ever be certain. Trump brags about re-trading every deal, which of course means that he brags about breaking his word.

    Fourth: We’ll have a president even more egotistical than Barack Obama, and even more thin-skinned than Barack Obama, who’s already promising to use the mechanisms of government to suppress political speech from his opponents even more vigorously than Obama has.

    That, friends and neighbors, is an absolute best-case scenario.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  29. A.R.- Those big name supporters and donors for Rubio will never see a vote from millions of conservatives.

    mg (31009b)

  30. This caucus doesn’t matter and was probably designd not to matter (but rather, to let anyone important in the Republican Party who wants to go to the convention go to the convention)

    Delegates are allotted proportionately by statewide vote with no threshhold. Larry dabato;’s website thinks that might mean a threshhold of 3.3% (there are 30 delegates – 15
    statewide, and 3 for each of the 4 Congressional districts = 12 + 3 automatic but bound to vote for he statewide winner on the first ballot) The 15 statewide if calculatesd separately would mean athresshold of 6.67% – if the Congressional district delegates are alloted separately, 2×4 = 8 would probably go to the statewide winner plus 4 to the runner up. The 3 automatic ones would also go to the statewide winner.

    Sammy Finkelman (7c7fb2)

  31. We do know Rubio will sell out the middle class quicker than it takes to type this sentence.

    I think well of Cruz, simply think if we have learned anything the social conservative ship has sailed. I don’t say that happily, it’s merely a statement of fact. We on the right sometimes lose sight in the supposed righteousness of our supposed cause that big chunks of the country, and especially in suburbia, do not agree. As many voters as he will get in the South he precludes himself form getting turning any Obama 2012 blue states red. Electoral math is daunting unless you can make the Dem defend a bunch of states that have been red givens. And the problem is they have been red givens for a while.

    And to that I end I do know on the biggest issue Trump is locked into cement. I will take that chance. And hope he surrounds himself with good advisers like Jeff Sessions and Rudy Giuliani.

    Simply I’m sorry to see that some on the right on going full Godwin on our potential nominee. We’ve had a quarter century of the GOPe selling us out. and lying to us. Past time to try another approach.

    Bugg (fa64ec)

  32. Rubio\Schumer/2016

    mg (31009b)

  33. The vulgarity of trump is more appealing than the traitors of team republican.
    Cruz/West

    mg (31009b)

  34. JD/Ag80

    nk (dbc370)

  35. I ponder if I could even vote for Trump at this point.

    He’d have to have Ted Cruz on the ticket.

    Dejectedhead (ba8561)

  36. Glenn Beck did a great job this morning outlining why Trump is destined to a yoooge win tonight. The GOPe finally captured the two houses of the Nevada legislature and the Governorship in Nevada. They promptly voted the biggest tax increase in state history.

    How angry would YOU be as a Nevadan who supported the GOP? So, the safest way to really let the GOPe have it, is to vote Trump.

    Of course, there is also the squishiness of the “religious right,” many of whom, when it comes right down to harsh standards against abortion, hedge.

    Besides, Marco is just so darn cuuuuute.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  37. Kasich is on the campaign trail giving hugs to any who will endure them.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  38. Kasich/Smalley 2016

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  39. #49. Agreed. The media game has given him a very uniform base of support, which really showed in the South Carolina primary. He was fairly uniformly supported across the whole state.

    Dejectedhead (ba8561)

  40. Cruz has so much to offer. Consider just his stand on gasohol in Iowa. This was a principled decision, and it is one that no other, I repeat no other, candidate would ever have dared. And then you look at his “conservative” opponents and how they attempted to muddy the details of Cruz’s program. They are just more of the same old, self-serving, ego-driven politicians who determine what they think is right based on last night’s polling data. Cruz knows what needs to be done, and that puts him about a decade ahead of the rest of the crowd.

    My problem with Cruz has been his campaign ethics, ranging from simple stuff like using his donor list politely and intelligently to big stuff like photo-shopping Rubio shaking hands the current incumbent. I am hopeful that his dismissal of his communications director is a sign that he will learn how to manage a huge and amorphous group. But he’d better learn quickly.

    Nevada is not critical by any means. It is encouraging that projections that 50,000+ will turn out for the caucuses. Such a turnout would make last week’s Democrat effort, say 11,000 total for both Hillary! and Bernie, look pitiful.

    BobStewartatHome (a52abe)

  41. donald trump Ted Cruz
    one of these guys could be yuuuuuuge
    compare and despair

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  42. as trump will soon learn
    only as sick as your secrets
    he’s one sick puppy

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  43. AR, you’ve been suckered, and you’re wrong. Here, for example, is the list from Schedule 1 of Trump’s 2009 wave of corporate bankruptcies in which he’s describing his 2004 wave of bankruptcies:On November 21, 2004 the entities listed below filed for bankruptcy and were jointly
    administered at Case Number 04-46898-JHW (the “2004 Debtors”)

    Case No. 04-46898; THCRILP Corporation, £’k/a TMlGP Corporation
    Case No. 04-46899; Trump Taj Mahal Associates, a New Jersey General Partnership
    Case No. 04-46900; Trump Plaza Associates, a New Jersey General Partnership
    Case No. 04-46901; Trump Marina Associates, L.P., a New Jersey Limited Partnership
    Case No. 04-46902; Trump Indiana Realty, LLC, a Delaware Limited Liability Company
    Case No. 04-46903; Trump Indiana Casino Management, LLC
    Case No. 04-46904; THCR Management Holdings, LLC
    Case No. 04-46905; THCR Management Services, LLC
    Case No. 04-46906; THCR Enterprises, LLC, a New Jersey Limited Liability Company
    Case No. 04-46907; THCR Enterprises, Inc., a Delaware Corporation
    Case No. 04-46908; Trump Internet Casino, LLC, a Delaware Limited Liability Company
    Case No. 04-46909; Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts Development Company, LLC
    Case No. 04-46910; Trump Atlantic City Associates, a New Jersey General Pminership
    Case No. 04-46911; Trump Casino Holdings, LLC, a Delaware Limited Liability Company
    Case No. 04-46912; Trump Casino Funding, Inc., a Delawm’e Corporation
    Case No. 04-46913; Trump Atlantic City Funding, Inc., a Delaware Corporation
    Case No. 04-46914; Trump Mm’ina, Inc., a New Jersey Corporation
    Case No. 04-46915; Trump Hotels & Casino ResOlis Holdings L.P.
    Case No. 04-46916; Trump Atlantic City Holding, Inc., a Delaware Corporation
    Case No. 04-46917; Trump Hotels & Casino ResOlis, Inc., a Delaware Corporation
    Case No. 04-46918; THCR Holding Corp., a Delaware Corporation
    Case No. 04-46919; Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts Funding, Inc., a Delaware Corp.
    Case No. 04-46920; Trump Plaza Funding, Inc., a New Jersey Corporation
    Case No. 04-46921; Trump Atlantic City Funding II, Inc., a Delaware Corporation
    Case No. 04-46922; Trump Atlantic City Funding III, Inc., a Delaware Corporation
    Case No. 04-46923; Trump Atlantic City Corporation, a Delaware Corporation
    Case No. 04-46924; Trump Indiana, Inc., a Delawm’e Corporation
    Case No. 04-46925; THCR Ventures, Inc., a Delaware Corporation

    An Amended Order Confirming the Second Amended Joint Plan of Reorganization dated March 30, 2005 was entered on April!!, 2005 by the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey for all of the 2004 Debtors. As a result of the plan, certain 2004 Debtors were renamed, and certain subsidiaries were merged and/or dissolved. The following reorganized debtors emerged: TCI Ho!dings, LLC; Tnullp Entertainment Resorts, Inc.; Tnnnp Entertainment Resorts Holdings, L.P,; Trump Entertainment Resorts FWlding, Inc.; Trump Entertainment Resorts Development Company, LLC; Trump Taj Mahal Associates, LLC; Trump Plaza Associates, LLC; Trump Marina Associates, LLC; TER Management Co” LLC; TER Development Co., LLC; and TER Keystone Development Co., LLC. All of these entities are direct or indirect affiliates of Trump Entertainment Resorts, Inc, As of the date hereof, all of these cases have been closed, with the exception of 04-46898, 04-46899, 04-46900, 04-46901.I’m relying on documents I download from PACER, the online service for the U.S. courts system. You’re relying on links from Psychology Today.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  44. Mr. Trump is just trying so hard to get voters to be in his corner so we can make America great again

    He’s probably under a lot of stress

    happyfeet (ffbd1f)

  45. Trump could never just put “targeted units” into bankruptcy because he has a junk-bond credit rating. He’s always had to cross-collateralize all his holdings in all his companies to get people to loan to him even at the highest legal rates. When one defaults, they all default; the assets of each of his companies were pledged to secure the debts of every company.

    The reason he was almost sucked into an involuntary personal bankruptcy in his first-go-around was because back then, he was still putting his own money and credit into deals (instead of just licensing his name, as is his pattern now), and he was making personal guarantees. That was just stupid. (He started hiring smarter lawyers, and he doesn’t much do that anymore, but the last time he did, on a $40M personal guarantee on the financing of the Trump International Hotel in Chicago, he defaulted on that, too, when his companies defaulted, and he pleaded “Act of God” as his only defense.

    There is no silver lining, no indication of hidden shrewdness, in Trump’s bankruptcies. They weren’t strategic; they weren’t wiping out long-term union contracts, for example, to create a leaner, meaner company. They were just plain old business failures: His companies couldn’t keep the promises he made on their behalves, and they weren’t paying their debts when they came due. He filed voluntarily because that’s how you get to pick a forum, but every voluntary filing was hours ahead of a deadline that his creditors would have used to foreclose on properties or to put him into an involuntary bankruptcy.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  46. Reagan’s beliefs were based on what is best for conservativatism, because conservative policies and ideology will make America great.

    Trump’s beliefs are based on what’s best for Trump, and he wants us to believe that will make America great.

    DRJ (15874d)

  47. TL/DR: His history is that his companies go broke in big waves of bankruptcies because he overpromises and underperforms.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  48. The media has spectacularly underreported Trump’s bankruptcies, yes.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  49. A.R.: Hint: The media doesn’t dig into the seamy side of Trump because Hillary wants to run against him.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  50. I just returned from casting my vote for Cruz. (No, I don’t live in California any more, but “nornev” just doesn’t have the same ring to it. Besides, there are people here who know me from before the move, and I don’t want to confuse them, okay?)

    I had to wait in line for about a half hour. The guy behind me was going on and on about how he wouldn’t vote for anybody who was part of the establishment. Yup, he was a Trumpkin.

    Eventually I obtained a ballot and was directed to one of a few classrooms. The classroom was full of people who were discussing this and that. One guy in particular was talking about the influence of money in politics. I just marked my ballot, put it in the envelope, and walked out. I mean, at this point, who really wants to sit around and listen to a bunch of armchair wonks spout their rudimentary knowledge of politics?

    norcal (b247ee)

  51. Did anyone every establish the kind/severity of the head injury C.Johnson has? He used to be somewhat conservative; got his 15 minutes of fame with the GIF illustrating Dan Rather’s fake TANG memos were MS Word and not 1972 IBM typewriter. Then he kind of lost it, and 10 years later, still pretty much without a clue.

    Was it a bike fall sans helmet? He used to post about his bike rides in the hills… really easy to get to 50 and faster downhill.

    dee (5ccfab)

  52. How on earth, will the mounting preference cascade for Trump be stymied, absent some enormous gaffe by DT?

    We are a week away from Gettysburg.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  53. Su-Su-Sudio Ru-Ru-Rubio

    There’s this dude that’s been on my mind
    All the time, Ru-Ru-Rubio oh oh
    Now he ain’t even ranked top shelf
    and some say that he repeats himself
    Ru-Ru-Rubio oh oh
    Ah if he’s the one, I’d be there
    I’d go voting anywhere
    it won’t be Hillary, she’d f*ck my life
    She can’t be Prez, but maybe Satan’s wife
    Ru-Ru-Rubio, he ain’t no turd
    Oh Ru-Ru-Rubio

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  54. and sometimes they make stuff up, and hide other parts,

    http://beldar.blogs.com/beldarblog/palin/

    narciso (732bc0)

  55. Beldar Finkleman!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  56. as a Cruz supporter I’m very dispirited I’m thinking of getting behind Mr. Trump instead

    happyfeet (8e2eaf)

  57. I am a big Cruz supporter. Of course, I am an actual conservative.

    I cannot see myself supporting Trump after his scorched earth attacks on Carson and Cruz and pretty much everyone else.

    Cruz has to win a couple of events or the GOP will stumble into a Trump nomination. Of course, Trump is the only GOP candidate with higher negatives than HRC. That will turn into a real circus.

    I am having a very sick feeling about November….

    WarEagle82 (3f92a9)

  58. Trump’s beliefs are based on what’s best for Trump, and he wants us to believe that will make America great.

    I don’t think a man like Trump has many “beliefs”, in the traditional sense of the word. Whether for himself or how to make the country great again. What has has are a lot of emotional reactions. There isn’t a lot time spent on formulating beliefs, nor analyzating inputs and outcomes and intended and unintended consequences, nor self-reflection, nor any critical thinking about issues. He is a walking, talking sound byte of the outrageous. He may be brilliant like people say, but he is, without a doubt, an extraordinarily skilled and talented con man who knows how to masterfully gauge the beliefs of others in the room, and then, adapts accordingly.

    Case in point: He throws out a belief (PP does some really good stuff); his supporters boo (But I hate abortion!); his supporters cheer (I will sign a bill to defund PP).

    He does not have a system of foundational beliefs about abortion or PP or government support of such an organization. He doesn’t know why it’s not a good thing for the government to be doing that, on the economic side, nor the moral side.

    Trump just knows which way the wind blows, and then turns himself accordingly.

    Dana (86e864)

  59. I can practically hear Phil Collins’ percussion jumping off my monitor, Col. H! Thanks, well done.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  60. “It takes a special type of spectacular mismanagement to drive your entire corporate empire, bought with a fortune handed to you by your daddy, through the bankruptcy courts four separate times.”

    Er, he did? As opposed to chaptering and reorganizing specific business units?

    A.R. (cc5ce0) — 2/23/2016 @ 6:24 pm

    You’re misinterpreting what the article says. The entire Trump business declared for bankruptcy on those occasions. They were all part of the same company. There’s no such thing as a part of a company going into bankruptcy. The bankruptcies required giving up his stakes in those particular hotels.

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

  61. Bugg (fa64ec) — 2/23/2016 @ 6:31 pm

    What needs to happen, I think, for the good of the country and the election of Cruz,
    is needs to be shown that the views of the Dems, such as abortion to the end of term and after, if possible, is the truly extreme position, and reasonable people will acknowledge that it is terrible to allow things to be done to unborn humans things that would get people thrown in jail for doing to puppies…
    and so on.

    MD in Philly (at the moment not in Philly) (deca84)

  62. Make book:

    2016 election tickets: Trump/Kasich vs. Clinton/Castro.

    Results: Trump wins by minimum 2.6% margin. Enlightened pragmatism ends entrenched conservatism to make America great again.

    American politics will be fun again. And all will be right with the world.

    DCSCA (a343d5)

  63. UPDATE: Reports from Twitter describe utter chaos.

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  64. If it matters, this will be a credentials fight.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  65. Still find funny Cruz supporters bashing Trump supporters as idiots given Cruz was banking on those Trumpzombies to vote Cruz. So Cruz was hoping to sweep thru the primaries on the wings of morons? Rich.

    Rodney King's Spirit (3adc86)

  66. CNN entrance polling from NV:

    30% shares my values
    25% can win
    22% can bring change
    21% tells it like it is

    Those are bad numbers for Mr. Trump. But we’ll see.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  67. Why thanks, Beldar! Okay… It’s on. Carson’s talking about “exhausted hares”…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  68. One down, two to go. Ramon Castro dies.

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/23/americas/cuba-ramon-castro-dies/index.html

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  69. Rockin’ out with their caucus out!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  70. I am shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here.

    AZ Bob (d6a3a9)

  71. Trump has captured Pahrump!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  72. CNN entrance polling from NV:

    30% shares my values
    25% can win
    22% can bring change
    21% tells it like it is

    Those are bad numbers for Mr. Trump. But we’ll see.

    Beldar (fa637a) — 2/23/2016 @ 7:59 pm

    If the 30% represents his support then one out of 6 voting for him don’t believe he can win and almost a third of his supporters don’t think he’s honest. Or it means he’s getting somewhere under 30% of the votes, maybe well under.

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

  73. If elected, Trump doesn’t plan to put his business interests in a blind trust and instead will let his children run things. That could pay off nicely for him.

    DRJ (15874d)

  74. Teh throw-down in Winnemucca, suckah

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  75. UPDATE x2:

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  76. Some of these reports resemble what Obama’s people reportedly did in the 2008 Dem caucuses.

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

  77. Beldar,

    Also electability: only 9% polled believe Cruz can win in November.

    Dana (86e864)

  78. Forget it, Jake, it’s Duckwater…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  79. The mistake that Cruz has been making all along is being circumspect. He needs to say something cringeworthy now and then. It’s not like the MSM is going to give him attaboys for keeping a tight rein, and Trump is getting all the press.

    He really needs to get out there and talk about firing every single person working for the corrupt DoJ and putting in people who will root out corruption. Saying something like: “There are many people in the Obama administration who ought to be in prison, and we will find them and charge them, and prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law so that nobody thinks they are above the law again.”

    But instead, he’s adopted the Romney milqetoast playbook while Trump’s lies get all the attention.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  80. Trump has the “angry vote”…

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  81. I see that Jon Huntsman is getting behind Trump. Take THAT GOPe!

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/22/politics/jon-huntsman-donald-trump-david-axelrod/index.html

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  82. Cruz is Goldwater. U can agree with him all day but his bed side manner sucks balls.

    Rubio wants to liked more than respected. That sucks. Wish he’d man up.

    Trump is the John Wayne Gacy of the race. A bad bad clown.

    Rodney King's Spirit (3adc86)

  83. @ Gerald A: In each of Trump’s bankruptcies, there have been multiple legal entities involved. Typically they’re set up as corporations or their more modern and flexible counterparts, limited liability companies (LLCs). Occasionally you’ll see a limited partnership with a corporate general partner. The specific structures that are chosen depend on what the entity is designed to do, and also by tax consequences.

    All of these collectively are generally described as “affiliates,” meaning that they share ultimate common voting control.

    Each of Trump’s bankruptcies has involved most of his corporate affiliates, and practically all of the significant ones. Yes, these structures often involve shell corporations that exist only to own and control shares in other corporations. But here’s the thing you can rely on:

    Sophisticated lenders (like banks, insurance companies, pensions funds) who’re loaning money to someone like Trump want to make very damned sure that they don’t get cheated through some sort of corporate shell game. So their long and complicated loan agreements will generally include every corporation that’s under common control, i.e., Trump’s entire empire, by name. He can’t move an asset from one company to another to put it outside his creditors’ reach. And there is also always a very long list of “negative covenants” that further restrict the debtor’s (i.e., Trump’s) ability to do any other kind of creative end-around.

    So, for example, that list above includes all of the corporations that were involved in Trump’s Atlantic City casino operations. But they also included a whole lot of other Trump-controlled entities which had cross-guaranteed the obligations of the companies directly involved in the Atlantic City casinos. Some of these Delaware corporations and LLCs, for example, probably have their business operations in Florida or Arizona or other places than New Jersey. But they went under when the casinos went under.

    And indeed, Trump wanted them all to be part of consolidated bankruptcy filings. Trump’s empire has consistently, constantly been cash-poor and undercapitalized. In each of these filings, he’s been desperate to get the protection of the “automatic stay” — the bankruptcy code’s prohibition against creditors continuing their state-court lawsuits, with resulting money judgments and sheriffs coming out to seize and auction off property — which pops up as soon as the company files bankruptcy.

    So Trump is lying through his teeth — this is a bald-faced deliberate lie, not a misstatement or a mistake — when he describes this as “four times” or “four companies” or “four projects” or “four deals.”

    It’s his entire empire, in four waves of corporate bankruptcies.

    Now, the exception, partially, is his last of the four waves. By then, he’d started revising his business model to become less of an equity participant and less of an active manager or developer, and more of a licensor of the Trump Brand. His reality TV business and some of his golf courses stayed out of the last wave of bankruptcies, if I’m recalling correctly. This just means he’s doing his deals with only his name and other people’s money; they get screwed out of their money, he walks away with his name, looking for the next sucker.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  84. The Nevada GOP’s Twitter feed is offering reassurances that things are fine, including that there are no reports of irregularities and also tgat:

    Nevada GOP ‏@NVGOP

    It’s not against the rules for volunteers to wear candidate gear. Volunteers went through extensive training & are doing a great job.

    DRJ (15874d)

  85. Fox News just reported that someone tried to get a bucket of Bud Lite into a caucus.

    Dana (86e864)

  86. trump has aces high
    high roller and lowball jack
    he’ll back-stab voters

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  87. DRJ,

    Instills confidence in their ability to investigate the allegations, doesn’t it?

    Patterico (86c8ed)

  88. In the past three primaries, Cruz has won the voters who said they chose based on the candidate who “shares my values.” In the past three primaries, Trump has won with voters who said they want someone who “tells it like it is,” and he’s placed last among voters who want someone who “shares my values.” That’s why I think those numbers are bad for Trump.

    But who knows? Maybe Nevada is full of vulgar lying blowhards, and they do share Trump’s values.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  89. The wearing of candidate gear is okay in Nevada (unlike most states), according to a clarification just sent out by the Nevada Republican Party, I’ve heard on both Fox and CNN.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  90. DRJ, as usual, is a step ahead of me and more specific. 😀

    Beldar (fa637a)

  91. Reno for keno
    while the poor people sleepin’
    the shade on the light

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  92. Trump should come out right now and renounce his taking of govt salary while POTUS then challenge others to do same…

    Rodney King's Spirit (3adc86)

  93. Nevada is gambling with our nation’s future.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  94. Well, thank God for this, eh?

    Nevada Gop spox tells me despite tempers flaring at caucus sites, no physical fights like in 2012 when it took 3 days to count the ballots.

    Dana (86e864)

  95. 61 … and he pleaded “Act of God” as his only defense. …

    Actually he cited a force majeure clause in the contract.

    James B. Shearer (0f56fb)

  96. RKS: That sounds like something Trump might do, because he doesn’t need the salary. Neither does Hillary. But every other candidate would: Cruz & Rubio both have small children to raise and educate, and Bernie Sanders is the least wealthy senator in Washington.

    I’m not worried about the president’s salary. I’m worried about Trump making the Clintons’ graft look like small potatoes.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  97. Did you read your link, Mr. Shearer? It’s the same thing.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  98. Beldar, I think Trump would decline the Presidential salary, and then put a big DONATE button on the WhiteHouse.gov website. (LOL)

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  99. Mr. Shearer: When he sued to prevent enforcement of his $40M personal guarantee, he claimed that the force majeure — a/k/a act of God — was that the national real estate market tanked in 2008. Well, yeah, but that wasn’t because a hurricane or some other natural disaster. If it were, everyone could have walked away from their obligations then. And I assure you that there were no hurricanes in Chicago that year.

    As legal excuses go, this is worse than “the dog ate my mortgage payment.”

    Beldar (fa637a)

  100. Cruz Supporter, I’ll bet you’re right about that donate button!

    Beldar (fa637a)

  101. Our political system has become a joke because we allowed tens of millions of ignorants to vote. Obola, a Trump, Sanders are evidence as such.

    Voting should not be a right earned from flashing pubic hair but one from establishing rudimentary knowledge of our history and our constitutional freedoms …. Pass AP American History for 10 year olds, Then u can vote

    Rodney King's Spirit (3adc86)

  102. 116.Did you read your link, Mr. Shearer? It’s the same thing.

    Sure but not everybody knows that “Act of God” is a legal term of art with a specific meaning and not some random excuse he invented in total desperation.

    James B. Shearer (0f56fb)

  103. The unprincipled, classless, morally bankrupt, faux conservative bully asshole is going to win.
    Best to grab your favorite beverage, put on some music and enjoy the rest of your evening.

    Icy (38ffb0)

  104. Claiming market conditions as force majeure for a contract default is pretty frivolous.

    SPQR (4764ea)

  105. interesting in both 2008, when he subsequently ran aground, and 2012, Romney swept the cauci, and it wasn’t even close,

    narciso (732bc0)

  106. 118.Mr. Shearer: When he sued to prevent enforcement of his $40M personal guarantee, he claimed that the force majeure — a/k/a act of God — was that the national real estate market tanked in 2008. Well, yeah, but that wasn’t because a hurricane or some other natural disaster. If it were, everyone could have walked away from their obligations then. And I assure you that there were no hurricanes in Chicago that year.

    Everybody with a “force majeure” clause in their contract. And as I understand it Trump wanted to delay payment not walk away entirely.

    As legal excuses go, this is worse than “the dog ate my mortgage payment.”

    Strange then that it was successful. Trump and the lender came to an agreement to extend his loan.

    James B. Shearer (0f56fb)

  107. Cruz 23%, Rubio 22%.

    Dana (86e864)

  108. The outline for the Trump Inaugural speech is now available from Fox… 20th Century Fox, in the first 10 minutes of the 1970 Oscar winning film, “Patton.”

    DCSCA (a343d5)

  109. What’s all this politicking going on in caucus for?

    It’s like asking why are there so many pitchers on the Dodgers?

    “They only have two catchers and thirteen pitchers. WUWT?” asks the Rubio supporter.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  110. Strange then that it was successful. Trump and the lender came to an agreement to extend his loan.

    James B. Shearer (0f56fb) — 2/23/2016 @ 9:03 pm

    Remember, James: you owe the bank 10,000.00, it’s your problem. You owe the bank 10,000,000.00, it’s their problem.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  111. For Mr. Shearer:

    Generally, the concept of “force majeure” is made up of four elements:

    it is external, in that it is not caused by one or the other of the parties;it is unforeseeable;it is irresistible; andit results in an absolute impossibility for a party to perform its legal obligation.

    The first three elements of force majeure are self explanatory. These three elements may in fact even apply to the current economic crisis. As Mr. Trump himself cites: “Would you consider the biggest depression we have had in this country since 1929 to be such an event? I would. A depression is not within the control of the borrower.”

    The fourth element of force majeure – absolute impossibility – is the tricky part. It is this notion of “absolute impossibility” that makes force majeure distinct from the whole realm of insolvency law and its specific rules. Implicit in the concept of force majeure is that a party has the means to respect its contractual obligations; it just physically can’t do it. Whether it is the hurricane that wipes out a whole production facility or the lengthy strike which blocks the ability of a party to take on input supplies, force majeure means that a commercial party “just can’t deliver”, for love or money.

    It is at this level that Mr. Trump would seem to be unlikely to succeed before the courts in his force majeure argument. Provided that some other assets are available to him in one form or another, money presumably may be found to repay the outstanding loan. Notwithstanding the extreme difficulty in refinancing due to the current credit crunch, there is no “absolute impossibility” for Mr. Trump to repay the loan.

    DRJ (15874d)

  112. Fox News just reported that someone tried to get a bucket of Bud Lite into a caucus.

    Dana (86e864) — 2/23/2016 @ 8:18 pm

    What ever risk there was doing that, and it was for some Bud Light? WTF?!?

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  113. Mr. Trump draws a lot of water in this state. You don’t draw shit, Rubio. Now we got a nice, quiet little gaming community here, and I aim to keep it nice and quiet. So let me make something plain. I don’t like you sucking around, bothering our citizens, Rubio. I don’t like your jerk-off name. I don’t like your jerk-off face. I don’t like your jerk-off behavior, and I don’t like you, jerk-off. Do I make myself clear?
    The Rube: [after a pause] I’m sorry, I wasn’t listening.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  114. NEVADA: Mr. Trump draws a lot of water in this state. You don’t draw $h1t, Rubio. Now we got a nice, quiet little gaming community here, and I aim to keep it nice and quiet. So let me make something plain. I don’t like you sucking around, bothering our citizens, Rubio. I don’t like your jerk-off name. I don’t like your jerk-off face. I don’t like your jerk-off behavior, and I don’t like you, jerk-off. Do I make myself clear?
    The Rube: [after a pause] I’m sorry, I wasn’t listening.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  115. Hey, SPQR🙋

    MD not exactly in Philly (deca84)

  116. Nevada is gambling with our nation’s future.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 2/23/2016 @ 8:29 pm

    Last election they were playing blackjack.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  117. Mr. Shearer, that they “came to an agreement” means that Trump settled before losing in court. The terms are no doubt confidential. But Trump did not prevail, and only someone incredibly naive would believe he was able to get a good settlement on the strength of this ridiculously bogus defense.

    That you would spin this as a win for Trump — instead of recognizing that this is just another occasion in which Trump abused the legal system with frivolous claims — tells me you are desperate to fool yourself or someone.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  118. And “delay payment”? That means he refused to pay when the primary obligor defaulted and he, as guarantor, was called to make good. He had no such right — there was no “grace period.” I assure you, though, that the underlying defaults weren’t declared until after the project itself, the primary obligor, was deeply and irretrievably in default. The entire deal had to be restructured — again, at the cost of millions of dollars in losses that ultimately get born by honest Americans.

    He broke his $40 million personal contractual promise, Mr. Shearer. That’s not disputable.

    There are none so blind as those who will not see.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  119. The chaos in the Nevada caucuses makes me wonder, again, why we have caucuses at all? Why not a primary?

    Arizona CJ (da673d)

  120. papertiger, how come you Trump guys always play the ethnic card against Rubio or Cruz? It’s often the birth certificate, or now you’re disparaging his name, and Trump’s been caught several times saying that Rubio “sweats a lot.”
    Next week, you guys will be talking about zoot suits.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  121. It seems that the only real reason a state would have a caucus in this day and age is because the sleazy local party offices want to control which candidates get the delegates. It’s moderately impressive that Old Whazzizname apparently managed to infiltrate the party at the highest county levels, as evidenced by all the ballot counters sporting his gear. I wonder if those people are maybe looking for something on the back-end.

    JVW (9e3c77)

  122. You’re also wrong about how the act of God defense works, Mr. Shearer. It’s not based on a clause in the contract; it’s an equitable extra-contractual defense, it can be urged by anyone who’s in any kind of contract, oral or written, whether there’s a clause about act of God or not. But it almost never wins, and it’s strictly limited to situations like hurricanes or earthquakes.

    Maybe you think Trump is God, but his acts — his wishes, his whims — aren’t “acts of God” as that term is known in the law.

    This concludes our conversation.

    Beldar (fa637a)

  123. Good to hear from you, SPQR.

    JVW (9e3c77)

  124. Well, Politico is calling Trump “the Nominee” for what that’s worth.

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  125. well it was fine when romney walloped twice, overwhelmingly,

    narciso (732bc0)

  126. I know there are more cahdidates now but this primary race reminds me of Reagan and Ford in 1976, with Cruz as Reagan and Trump as Ford. Ford won, but it wasn’t clear until the Convention. Like Reagan, it may not be Cruz’s time yet.

    DRJ (15874d)

  127. true also huckabee ran into april or may, with mccain, and santorum and romney sparred for a while

    narciso (732bc0)

  128. Primaries cost each state money to facillitate. On the other hand, caucuses are run by and paid for by the parties.
    Las Vegas is big, but most of the rest of Nevada is sparsely populated, and spread out. If the state were to pay for it, it could be kind of costly on a “per capita” basis for the state to staff a polling place in Boondock, NV where only 50 voters might show up all day.

    Also, caucuses attract more focused, die-hard voters because it requires a concentrated time investment during a set time in the evening. A surrogate for each of the candidates will be given the opportunity to stand up and make a little last minute speech. It’s not like a typical Election Day (or primary) where you can just run in and punch your ballot for Candidate Jones, then run out, and go pick up the kids from soccer practice.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  129. papertiger, how come you Trump guys always play the ethnic card against Rubio or Cruz?

    How come you Cruz guys always use hyperbolic infinities to assault your political opponents?

    For the record I have never played any ethnic card against Cruz or Rubio. I’ve never even been issued an ethnic card.
    Sent away for an ethnic card once at the DMV. Jerry Brown card blocked me.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  130. blackjack was refering to Obama, duma$$.

    If I play a card on him, well he had it coming.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  131. “Nobody loves the Second Amendment more than us.”
    — Meaningless braggadocio that would make a used car salesman proud.

    Icy (38ffb0)

  132. Did Trump underperform again? . He only has 44% (which is more than he got last time)

    Fox is calling it a huuuuge win. I think it was Megan Kelly who said Trump by a mile.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  133. I know there are more cahdidates now but this primary race reminds me of Reagan and Ford in 1976, with Cruz as Reagan and Trump as Ford. Ford won, but it wasn’t clear until the Convention. Like Reagan, it may not be Cruz’s time yet.

    Not to be such a Henny Penny here, DRJ, but I think that nominating Old Whazzizname is the death knell of the GOP as a national brand. They can still muck about locally and win governorships and maybe even Congressional seats because conservatism is still popular when you have to actually pay the bills and can’t just run up a giant tab for the next generation, but after what is sure to be a 40-state rout at the hands of a woman who may possibly be indicted I think the GOP will go the way of the Whigs. Who will be our next John C. Frémont? Who will be our next Abraham Lincoln? It’s just thoroughly depressing.

    JVW (9e3c77)

  134. DRJ – I fully agree with the 1976 analogy you proffered in so far as it reflects outrageous audacity by a conservative to fight against the entrenched GOPe interests (Reagan took on a sitting president?!!).

    There is an immense difference, though, in the dynamics of a convention. Trump will be fought at every turn, with every rule (some made up on the fly as needed) adopted to kill him. Ford was the beneficiary of such advantage in ’76.

    There’s also the dynamic of a strong third candidate draining the audacious conservative.

    To me, we are in totally uncharted GOP waters now. Everything does come down to next Tuesday. If something doesn’t radically shift by then, Trump will waltz to a first-ballot nomination.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  135. #132 papertiger, you just wrote imagined dialogue that said this to Rubio about his name, “…I don’t like you sucking around, bothering our citizens, Rubio. I don’t like your jerk-off name.”

    By the way, Rubio means “red” in Spanish.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a)

  136. actually it means blonde, try to pretend things right,

    narciso (732bc0)

  137. the Trump Organization said there was nothing to change: guns are already allowed at Trump properties, even if the boss and some resorts appear unaware of this.

    “While laws vary substantially from jurisdiction to jurisdiction,” the company said in a statement, “we allow security personnel and other licensed individuals the ability to carry a firearm in an effort to protect themselves, our guests, associates and the general public.” The firm, based in New York City, is opposed to gun-free zones, the statement said.

    It declined to say why Trump and some of his hotels seemed unaware of this policy.

    Allow me. Many states, with Trump resorts, have no respect whatsoever for the 2nd amendment.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  138. @ Cruz supporter post #146;

    Thanks for the info on primaries vs. caucuses. It makes sense seen from that light.

    Arizona CJ (da673d)

  139. 135.Mr. Shearer, that they “came to an agreement” means that Trump settled before losing in court. The terms are no doubt confidential. But Trump did not prevail, and only someone incredibly naive would believe he was able to get a good settlement on the strength of this ridiculously bogus defense.

    So you think Trump had to make good on his personal guarantee? And any settlement no doubt reflected the fact that the bank might prefer to get their $600 million construction loan repaid rather than have it default even if they could recover $40 million from Trump.

    That you would spin this as a win for Trump — instead of recognizing that this is just another occasion in which Trump abused the legal system with frivolous claims — tells me you are desperate to fool yourself or someone.

    You planning to file a complaint about his lawyers to the bar association?

    James B. Shearer (0f56fb)

  140. CS – it’s a line from a movie. Any racist overtones are a product of your hyperbolic imagination.

    Try googling …”I don’t like your jerk-off name, I don’t like your jerk-off face, I don’t like your jerk-off behavior, and I don’t like you. Jerk-off.

    You’ll get it.
    Maybe after the election is over.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  141. It’s pathetic seeing an otherwise respectable Republican, digging so deep and scraping the bottom of the barrel to scare up a race card to play.

    Shame on you.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  142. 140.You’re also wrong about how the act of God defense works, Mr. Shearer. It’s not based on a clause in the contract;…

    According to this what’s in the contract matters.

    The case-law produced through the years by the courts generally revolves around the interpretation of the particular wording of a force majeure contractual clause, in order to determine whether a party may be excused, even if temporarily, from delivering on a contractual obligation. Apparently, Mr. Trump’s loan agreement may have had some distinctive force majeure wording, allowing for non payment even in the case of circumstances simply “not within the reasonable control of the borrower”.

    James B. Shearer (0f56fb)

  143. By the way, Rubio means “red” in Spanish.

    Cruz Supporter (102c9a) — 2/23/2016 @ 10:06 pm

    “Rojo” in Spanish is “red”.

    Bill H (dcdd7b)

  144. # 102.: “This just means he’s doing his deals with only his name and other people’s money; they get screwed out of their money, he walks away with his name, looking for the next sucker.”

    Taxpayers beware.

    Luke Stywalker (a31c17)

  145. Another third for rubio, this pos is on a bronze roll. All those traitorous Bastiges endorsing him show how few people can stomach team republican.. Eff team republican and their holy than thou views. Hey- Traitor Ryan- I hope you overdose on bad cheese.

    mg (31009b)

  146. I can see it now- Romney/Ryan 2016.
    Team republican is on a mission of performing an abortion on the American people.
    I hate these scum as much as democrats.
    Cruz/West, you Effing dopes.

    mg (31009b)

  147. JVW and Ed,

    I agree with both of your comments. Some things remind me 1976 but it’s not really the same, and the likely results seem much worse. It may be Trump’s election to lose. If so, he will have more money to spend than even he has dreamed of, and this time he won’t have to worry about personal guarantees. We will.

    DRJ (15874d)

  148. On the other hand, I live in a conservative area with few Democrats. I expect some people will stay home rather than vote for Trump, but what surprises me is how many people plan to vote for Hillary if Trump is the nominee. If this is happening elsewhere, the GOP and Trump are toast.

    DRJ (15874d)

  149. However, the 1976 general election may be a lot like this one.

    DRJ (15874d)

  150. Trump should pick Rubio as his VP. It gives him risk-free credibility with Hispanics and amnesty supporters, and brings the GOP establishment onboard. Would Rubio say yes? Probably. He needs the job.

    DRJ (15874d)

  151. Rubio’s immigration policy – import poverty.
    trump/rubio would never get my vote. A pair of losers.
    I can survive with democrats in control, I will not vote for anyone I can’t stand. Those effing days are over.
    If criomaleins can live here for free- so will I.
    Locked and m. f.ing loaded. And my chessie Walter is very protective, come on up my brick walk azzholes.
    Bring it on- lets burn this sucker to the ground.

    mg (31009b)

  152. There are a couple of positives to a Donald-Hillary race. It will be entertaining in a reality TV kind of way – maybe better than the Kardashians. And one of them has to lose.

    Gerald A (7c7ffb)

  153. You guys are despondent because Trump won La Vegas? Where else, except possibly Atlantic City and Hollywood, could he have done better? And a Christian done worse?

    nk (dbc370)

  154. Donald and Hillary are winning because way toooooo many pygmies vote. “I got pubic hair so I can vote” Democracy simply does not work.

    Rodney King's Spirit (3adc86)

  155. #172 And the Republicans have no one else to blame but themselves for not “doing as they say” and for not being an opposition party to Obola but being enablers with the heart of the lion in the Wizard of Oz.

    What is even worse for the idiot Republicans is they are going to get SMOKED in the Senate. So if they think Obola calling them racists resisting SCOTUS then they better lace up their boots cuz if they affirm anything the Rep electorate is going to dump them fast.

    Would not be shocked if Trump openly campaigns against any Rep Senator who allows Obola to get his way. Might even make strategic sense for Donald to have a divided Congress.

    Rodney King's Spirit (3adc86)

  156. nk,

    I’m not despondent but I don’t think the prognosis for Cruz’s campaign is very good unless Cruz can win 2-3 SEC primaries (which seems unlikely) or Trump does something incredibly stupid. Unfortunately, with today’s electorate, the bar for “incredibly stupid” seems incredibly high and that’s going to make it hard for Cruz and Rubio.

    DRJ (15874d)

  157. Actually, I’m very happy with Cruz. He put together a good campaign, has the most conservative policies and record, and has stood up to a grueling race where he’s been the target most of the time. Other good people have fallen down and out, but Cruz did not. Plus, he’s young so if this doesn’t work out, he has other campaigns and knows some of the pitfalls. That’s what I was thinking when I compared Cruz to Reagan in 1976, and it’s a comparison that makes me optimistic for the possibility of a post-Trump or post-Hillary future.

    DRJ (15874d)

  158. If Trump is the GOP nominee, the next President will be Hillary. Oh well, my mother survived Mussolini, Hitler and Stalin.

    But let’s not give up hope until next Tuesday? 😉

    nk (dbc370)

  159. I agree with what you say (as usual). And that’s a strong Mom.

    DRJ (15874d)


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