In my opinion Cruz’s (discussed by JVW here) was worse — as it named neighbors and arguably implied (to stupid voters) that there was some kind of “violation” involved in their failure to vote. That said, the Rubio mailer retains many of the objectionable tactics of Cruz’s.

So Team Rubio also put out a mailer like Cruz's this weekend, but it's got a different tone to it: pic.twitter.com/3BzqhmHS12

— Alexandra Jaffe (@ajjaffe) January 31, 2016

“Ve KNOW vedder you hav been votink!” Check.

“Your NEIGHbors are votink! Vy aren’t YOU!” Check.

“You hav a votink SCORE und ve KNOW it!” Check.

It’s different when Rubio does it, though, on account of how he’s good-looking and everything.

So.

So much of the way people interpret election results is media-driven babble about “expectations” and similar nonsense.

I would offer the following differing perspective.

Four years ago, I'd have called you crazy if you said a candidate with a firm anti-ethanol subsidy stance had even a CHANCE of winning Iowa.

— Patterico (@Patterico) February 1, 2016

[guest post by Dana]

This is pretty funny. Of course, Trump supporters are going to think otherwise.

Ted Cruz, whose campaign has been shown to have the most effective and persuasive political ads of this campaign season, has released yet another hard-hitting ad which shows Trump as a crony in bed with politicians, including liberal Democrats. The ad smartly uses Trump’s own words against him:

–Dana

[guest post by Dana]

The Des Moines Register released polling results of a selection of likely Republican caucusgoers:

Trump stands at 28 percent, while rival Ted Cruz has slid to 23 percent. But there’s still a strong case for Cruz in this race — he’s more popular and respected than Trump, the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

“The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll.

According to those polled, this is where Trump is vulnerable:

It bothers 60 percent of likely caucusgoers that Trump supports using government powers to seize property. It bothers 56 percent that he supported abortion rights in the past and would not have banned late-term abortions.

As for Cruz, those polled didn’t like that he borrowed $1 million dollars and forgot to disclose it, as well as not supporting Renewable Fuel Standards.

The good news for Cruz is that he is the go-to guy for Trump, Rubio, and Carson supporters who may change their minds, and that’s not an insignificant number of voters:

…71 percent of Trump’s supporters say they’re certain they’ll vote for him, compared to just 29 percent who may yet switch, the Iowa Poll found. Among Rubio’s supporters, 47 percent were committed while 53 percent said they may switch to another candidate.

The poll also found that Cruz is the clear second choice of Rubio voters, by a two-to-one margin.

Therefore, it’s no surprise that the Cruz camp is putting a lot of money into negative ads airing this weekend which will focus primarily on Rubio’s support of amnesty.

And there is this:

GOP caucusgoers are more comfortable with Cruz winning the nomination, becoming president and representing the United States to the world than they are with Trump.

If the race eventually comes down to two Republicans, 53 percent say they would prefer Cruz as the nominee, not Trump. Just 35 percent would choose Trump in a one-on-one contest with Cruz.

In light of Trump and Cruz still holding first and second spot, the Des Moines Register amusingly describes the mounting concerns of the GOP establishment:

Mainstream Republicans, faced with seeing governors Jeb Bush and Chris Christie stalling and the grim reality looming of a victory by a smash-mouth game show host or an ultra-conservative obstructionist, have gravitated toward Marco Rubio.

–Dana