Patterico's Pontifications

I can’t say you saw it here first, exactly, but you saw it here.

Patterico (86c8ed) — 11/2/2015 @ 6:39 pm

I don’t like any aspect of that prediction, Eeyore, but I do think this nation has seen its best days. The future doesn’t look bright, with the Democrats in full-blown lawlessness out in the open and still a massive number of people willing to vote for them.

John Hitchcock (72412b) — 11/2/2015 @ 6:41 pm

Rubio polls substantially worse now (9.2%) than the month following his announcement (14.3%).

scrutineer (b7d257) — 11/2/2015 @ 6:48 pm

Could you elaborate on your reasoning?

Gerald A (949d7d) — 11/2/2015 @ 6:52 pm

Or rather, what is your reasoning?

Gerald A (949d7d) — 11/2/2015 @ 6:53 pm

TED.

aunursa (be35b6) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:01 pm

Without elaborating, lets say that a deep (R) bench should never be mistaken strong (R) bench.
Rubio is a lightweight against multiple heavyweight bare knuckles brawlers…
He is a slap hitter in a power hitter league…

he did tell loser Jeb off though… that’ll work with the Clinton/Democratic machine… right?

I think he has an outside chance against Hillary if he can find an Afro/Hispanic/Woman as a running mate.

steveg (fed1c9) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:10 pm

Could you elaborate on your reasoning?

Sorry, short on time. Throwing it out there for discussion.

Patterico (86c8ed) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:11 pm

I just said here recently that there is something close to a built in Democrat majority now. If the GOP candidate got strong backing from all types of people who are open to voting Republican – moderates, economic conservatives, libertarians, socons etc. they could win, but there doesn’t seem to be anyone who can get all those. If you nominate someone acceptable to the moderates a lot of conservatives start yelling GOPe! If you nominate a Tea Party type you lose a lot of moderates.

Part of the problem is that the moderates see no need to have someone who does more than give lip service to conservative concerns while many conservatives think you don’t need to attract any moderates to win.

Gerald A (949d7d) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:13 pm

If Rubio should get the nomination, he’ll be so much more “likable” than Hillary that a significant number of the young and uninformed who only bother to vote once every four years, and who gravitate toward whichever candidate seems “cooler,” will choose to support him. That means that what has been a disadvantage in the past two presidential elections will finally be an advantage for Republicans.

Add in a decent turnout by various Hispanic groups looking for their own legacy president, and Rubio has a good chance to finish off the queen bitch.

Dagwood (d51cb9) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:14 pm

I can see Rubio as VP but not as POTUS. Maybe in 12 years….
He would pull Florida’s electoral votes into the GOP column

kishnevi (31ba4e) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:35 pm

I go with Dagwood. Rubio would be JFK to Hillary’s Nixon. Which is not to say that Hillary has 10% of Nixon’s honesty, love of country, and knowledge of politics. Hillary’s advantage in such a comparison is that she was borne with neither a conscience, nor a soul and this allows her to do things that would have made “Tricky Dicky” squirm.

Her candidacy is based on the fact that the progressives have no alternative, and she knows it.

BobStewartatHome (a52abe) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:35 pm

10.

Not with my vote.

Greg (c5e0d8) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:38 pm

Which is not to say that I agree with Patterico. It is still early times, and Cruz is steadily making headway. I see Trump declining because he doesn’t have the depth of knowledge to carry him through with same ease and confidence as the debate intensifies. His blustering will become painfully obvious. Carson is the real thing, but he is not an assertive person, and this will handicap him. Fiorina is also an authentic personality, but she will face a terrific battering by the LHMFM … for example, I noticed my search engine came up with “carly fiorina plastic surgery” as the second choice as I typed her name into the search engine.

BobStewartatHome (a52abe) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:44 pm

If the Republicans are stupid enough to nominate Rubio, it is right and proper that Hillary should win.

nk (9faaca) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:49 pm

Rubio will not be the candidate. An Immigration squish beholden to CoC big contributors is not going to take the nomination. Bu were that to happen, the Dems will savage Rubio and he will lose.

Bugg (fa64ec) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:54 pm

That’s like the chicken and the egg are in the cart before the horse and they’ve all left the barn.

Prediction: Clinton serves 3 to 5 in the ADX in Florence, Colorado.

Colonel Haiku (436b69) — 11/2/2015 @ 7:56 pm

Hillary v. Cruz. Hillary loses.

Fred Z (5db617) — 11/2/2015 @ 8:21 pm

Do not underestimate Marco Rubio’s vote getting power. In 2009 when he ran against Florida Governor Charlie Crist in the primary for the open Senate seat of Mel Martinez(D), he quickly put Crist in short pants. Despite Crist’s name recognition, Rubio soon overtook him in the polls forcing Crist to abandon his efforts as a Republican. In an attempt to split the Republican vote, Crist ran as in independent. He failed miserably, running third in a three man field. Rubio won overwhelmingly.

Rubio is a natural on the Sunday talk shows. He recently eviscerated Charlie Rose when Rose challenged him on his accusation that Hillary lied about the video. He will project youth against the elderly wicked witch. He is the one the Hillary campaign fears the most.

Corky Boyd (2c491d) — 11/2/2015 @ 8:30 pm

I disagree. I think her email/Benghazi baggage will weigh her down sufficiently that the 6% of the electorate in the middle will not be able to give her blessing.

Rubio is no Cruz. But he’s also no Bush, no Kasich and certainly no Trump. And, the sad fact is, Brit Hume made a great point on Twitter: Ted Cruz proudly talks about all the battles he’s fought in the Senate, but not the number he’s won: which is zero.

Oh-for-everything is a great thing in banner-carrying senator. It is a terrible trait in a presidential candidate.

Rubio will undoubtedly disappoint. But not like she will flaunt.

If he’s not conservative “ENOUGH” for GOP base voters, then we deserve Hillary.

Robert C. J. Parry (6ea4aa) — 11/2/2015 @ 8:32 pm

One day, some enterprising patriot will post the warning banners from government mail accounts. The banners you have to click through every time you log in about classification and information handling.

It won’t take long to see why even with a friendly DOJ, my money is on Colonel Haiku’s prediction. Lois Lerner was smart enough to destroy the evidence. Hillary was arrogant enough not to.

Robert C. J. Parry (6ea4aa) — 11/2/2015 @ 8:37 pm

There is no way that the Democrat Party will hold the office for a third term after a failed presidency. The public will vote for nearly anyone other than the Democrat. Except Trump.

Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/2/2015 @ 8:39 pm

Anyone care to name the last time a party held power after two terms of failure? 1876? And Grant was not nearly the crap artist that Obama is.

Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/2/2015 @ 8:41 pm

GOP nominates Trump. Trump behaves like an ass, is seen as less likeable than Hillary. Hillary wins. Trump gets many many road-building contracts.

Kevin M (25bbee) — 11/2/2015 @ 8:45 pm

I don’t see how Hillary could possibly win. She’ll have a depressed vote if she’s the nominee and she’ll energize the opposition because she’s been disliked for so long.

Dejectedhead (89aabe) — 11/2/2015 @ 8:46 pm

Agree 110 %, nk. Boobio would be a disaster.

mg (31009b) — 11/2/2015 @ 9:36 pm

With every passing day, we learn more about what a tool Rubio is. It’s not been pretty. I’m now of the opinion that I want Jeb! to stick with it just so that he can trash Rubio. How ’bout this:

Hillary vs. Rubio. K Street wins!

ThOR (a52560) — 11/2/2015 @ 9:36 pm

Col. – Love to see her in pant suit prison.

mg (31009b) — 11/2/2015 @ 9:37 pm

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/02/marco-rubio-jorge-ramos-will-keep-obamas-first-executive-amnesty-place-legislative-amnesty-enacted/
Trump would beat bill’s wife, because of his immigration stance. If not, grab your ankles and head south.
Cruz/West

mg (31009b) — 11/2/2015 @ 9:49 pm

Rodham is a pathological liar. Rodham is a CRIMINAL. Rodham is a useless political hack and incompetent windbag.

The FACT or suggestion that his HORSE’S ASS could win any election ANYWHER, completely ratifies tha America is in decline. THE LEFT, the total full out COMMIE LEFT has no shame, nor morals, no conscience, and most on board for RODHAM, PELOSI, SANDERS, et al, HAVE NO CLUE what they are asking for.
And what has the GOP done about it??

GUS (7cc192) — 11/2/2015 @ 9:53 pm

If hillary isnt indicted and therefore wins the nomination for the dems, then cruz will either be be trump’s veep or fiorina will be Cruz’s veep

Reliapundit (cb5e92) — 11/2/2015 @ 10:56 pm

There’s going to be too much anger about the over-reaching Obama for Hillary to squeak by this time. Also, if there is to be a 3rd party movement, it will be from the Left, this time.

The GOP damn well better have the all-time anti-fraud patrols in the usual places, like Cincinnati, though.

If the anger is great enough, and as of now, I believe it will be, Cruz will have enough to win. However, if it is a brokered convention, it will be Rubio.

A Cruz/Rubio or Cruz/Fiorina ticket will get it done in November.

Ed from SFV (3400a5) — 11/2/2015 @ 11:58 pm

smarmy smarmy marco sleazio is gonna inherit all the largesse of the hyper-entitled ivy league trash that seriously thought what the country needed was yet another steaming heaping serving of bushfilth

but he’s a loser too

happyfeet (4b9e24) — 11/3/2015 @ 2:30 am

Hillary, for sure was the easy pick.
Rubio is likely the GOP elites pick along with the big donors.

The issue is then why bother voting making Rubio clocking in even a distant second. Likely no more than 3,000 people will vote in 2016.

cedarhill (96cfcb) — 11/3/2015 @ 4:38 am

I think most of Trump’s voters would be Cruz’s if he wasn’t running. Even if Trump doesn’t ultimately get the nomination, if Cruz doesn’t get it you can thank Trump.

Gerald A (5dca03) — 11/3/2015 @ 6:21 am

Today is election day in some places. The one I’m watching is Kentucky, where Matt Bevin is running against the AG Jack Conway. The Paper of Making Up the Record calls it close, which means Bevin will win. That will be good for conservatives. Also, I’m curious how Houston will vote on Proposition 1. Seeing as how they elected Anise mayor three times ….

nk (9faaca) — 11/3/2015 @ 6:26 am

for that match up, I agree. Conservatives will not turn out for Rubio. It’s Ted, or it’s over. You heard it here first.

firefirefire (933c5b) — 11/3/2015 @ 6:50 am

I don’t see single digits taking a nomination, but that’s just me.

I also cannot augur coattails regardless; the GOP only has fatazzes in the tent.

DNF (1645ed) — 11/3/2015 @ 7:26 am

Hillary vs. Rubio. Hillary wins.

And does that bother or worry you more than “Hillary vs Trump. Donald Trump wins”?

Mark (f713e4) — 11/3/2015 @ 7:48 am

In a way if a person thinks it’s not a case of being overly cynical over the idea of Americans electing Hillary in 2016, then the US in such a person’s mind, for all intents and purposes, is a lost cause.

I’m inching closer to that level of cynicism.

Vive Mexico, don’t cry for us, Argentina, and how’s the toilet-paper supplies, Venezuelans?

Mark (f713e4) — 11/3/2015 @ 7:52 am

Rubio’s main weakness which he share with much of the rest of the GOP field spare Trump, Paul and Cruz to a point-there is no groundswell for more Middle East war. NONE. In fact quite the contrary. .Except in the green room at Fox News and among these guys, nobody wants anything to do with more of that. Ask any grunt; it’s a fool’s errand.Israel can take care of itself, the rest is a matrix of and choices and worse bad outcomes with unintended consequences. Hillary will dump on feckless Obama without a 2nd thought to be the antiwar candidate. And then it’s over.

Bugg (fa64ec) — 11/3/2015 @ 8:00 am

Alas! The best candidate we have for the general election, Carly Fiorina, has been losing ground since the second debate; if she doesn’t hit another home run in the debate next week, she’s probably out.

The Dana whose candidate is losing (f6a568) — 11/3/2015 @ 8:32 am

I just wonder on how many voters the closer it gets to Nov 2016 decide “F.N.” to a H!C Presidency. Her negative number are quite high now and she is not a good debate participant and a poor campaigner. (ps: i also would not put it past the current PotUS to “October Surprise” her)

seeRpea (a484b7) — 11/3/2015 @ 8:33 am

I am increasingly of the belief that Rubio might be the only current candidate that can beat Hillary in the general election.

JD (957967) — 11/3/2015 @ 8:39 am

I am increasingly of the belief that Rubio might be the only current candidate that can beat Hillary in the general election.

I believe he polls better against Hillary than the others, but that doesn’t necessarily tell us what would happen once they get to make their case. The Carter campaign famously wanted to run against Reagan in 1980. I think he polled worse than most Republican Presidential candidates about a year before the election.

Gerald A (5dca03) — 11/3/2015 @ 8:50 am

Things may have to get worse before they get better. Elections may not be the thing that makes them better either.

My dear wife would like my dear son (currently age 3) to go to Harvard. I have no objection to that, provided that he should learn how to organize and lead raids against other surviving bands for their stocks of ammunition and canned goods, which is a skill set I am afraid may be in high demand before he has children of his own to raise.

Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1) — 11/3/2015 @ 8:55 am

Rubio is pretty. But his position on immigration means he can’t get enough primary votes to win anything. He’d dead, he just doesn’t know it yet.

luagha (1de9ec) — 11/3/2015 @ 9:20 am

My crystal ball, magic 8 ball, Ouija board, all see a dartboard being used to come up with Rubio. The right doesn’t have anyone close to a Reagan currently running, so it’s a complete guess as to which one gets nominated.

dee (739167) — 11/3/2015 @ 9:35 am

nk (9faaca) — 11/3/2015 @ 6:26 am

Yes, I’m folowing Houston’s vote on Prop 1 as well. The msm is calling it very close. But they are not trustworthy – prolly trying to discourage the opposition.

felipe (b5e0f4) — 11/3/2015 @ 9:49 am

Kevin, U. S. Grant was a much better President than your high school teachers told you.

BobStewartatHome (a52abe) — 11/3/2015 @ 9:54 am

If it turns out to be H! vs Rubio, I ‘m calling it for Rubio.

I know some dyed in the woll D’s and their support for H! is not unchakeable – they would consider an Independant (Webb?) over Hillary!

felipe (b5e0f4) — 11/3/2015 @ 9:59 am

When the MSM calls it close, be confident our side is ahead by a wide margin, felipe.

nk (9faaca) — 11/3/2015 @ 10:21 am

The Stock Market Thinks Hillary Clinton Will Be the Next President of the United States

The stock market, being a sophisticated group of people, presumably is a good predictor.

Gerald A (5dca03) — 11/3/2015 @ 10:29 am

“The stock market, being a sophisticated group of ~~people~~ criminals, presumably is a good predictor.”

FTFY

felipe (b5e0f4) — 11/3/2015 @ 10:38 am

@Gerald A:The stock market, being a sophisticated group of people, presumably is a good predictor.

Right, because the mass of investors never make bad decisions. Wisdom of crowds!

Gabriel Hanna (64d4e1) — 11/3/2015 @ 11:03 am

The stock market is actually driven by emotion a lot of the time.

Gerald A (5dca03) — 11/3/2015 @ 12:14 pm

If it’s Hillary vs. Rubio. The old lady loses.

Neo (d1c681) — 11/3/2015 @ 2:03 pm

If it’s Hillary Vs. Rubio, Hillary wins, because there’s a percentage of R voters who can’t stand Rubio or Bush (the two GOPe candidates) and won’t vote for them in the general (I’m one of them). It’d only take a few percent drop in R turnout to make a Hillary victory certain.

Further problems with Rubio are his air of corruption (the credit card issue, to name one)and his inherent endemic dishonesty to voters; he ran for the Senate as a conservative on immigration, yet every single bill he’s proposed or co sponsored was the direct opposite. In fact, he’s had no legislative initiatives at all otherwise, and thankfully he’s failed ever time. He’s also the one who gave Obama the “bipartisan” cover to illegally implement the “dream” act when it failed in the Senate. Then there’s the whole gang of 8 issue.

There’s just too much about Rubio to hate, far too little to like, and therefor he’ll drive down R turnout. Hillary wins.

Much the same dynamic (though, so far as I know, not the corruption issues) applies to Jeb Bush. He’s also got the further issue of being unable to hit Hillary on the private server issue due to having done the same thing himself while governor – it’d be the Romneycare albatross all over again.

IMHO, Republicans should, if we want to win against Hillary, pick someone who can beat her, not somebody (Bush, Rubio) who can’t.

Arizona CJ (0544d1) — 11/3/2015 @ 3:38 pm

Bevin won!

nk (9faaca) — 11/3/2015 @ 5:34 pm

GOP exceeded all polling and expectations in KY

JD (3b5483) — 11/3/2015 @ 5:37 pm

ArizonaCJ – thanks for mouthing all of the leftist made up nonsense. You forgot about his boat. And bottled water though. And if you think that Jeb’s email and the Sec State’s emails are the same, then you are … never mind. It is a fatuous and dishonest comparison.

JD (3b5483) — 11/3/2015 @ 5:41 pm

hasn’t that been true, in most races that go GOP.

narciso (ee1f88) — 11/3/2015 @ 5:41 pm

besides the push on amnesty, where has rubio really distinguished himself, where have his efforts gone, we know Cruz’s record,

narciso (ee1f88) — 11/3/2015 @ 5:43 pm

JD said;
“ArizonaCJ – thanks for mouthing all of the leftist made up nonsense. You forgot about his boat. And bottled water though. And if you think that Jeb’s email and the Sec State’s emails are the same, then you are … never mind. It is a fatuous and dishonest comparison.”

*

No, it isn’t. Of course Jeb’s e-mail issue isn’t the same as Hillary’s. For one thing, no classified data involved, so no threat to national security. However, what matters here are perceptions; it’s a hell of a lot harder for Jeb to hit Hillary on this issue than it would be for anyone else in the race, just like it was hard for Romney to use Obamacare as an issue (Romeycare and Obamacare weren’t the same thing, either).

As for Rubio, the boat issue was hilariously absurd; even I defend him on that one.

And BTW, since when is hitting Rubio on his immigration sellouts a leftist thing? Or for that matter, his dishonesty? Last time I checked, it looked like dishonesty in a candidate was okay only on the left side of the aisle. I’d like to think that hasn’t changed. Actually, I’d like it a heck of a lot more if dishonesty wasn’t okay in politicians of any political stripe.

Arizona CJ (0544d1) — 11/3/2015 @ 6:15 pm

Now let’s see if Houstonians know the difference between perversion and human rights.

nk (9faaca) — 11/3/2015 @ 6:20 pm

The NBC/WSJ poll out today (registered voters) shows Carson running strongest against Clinton with each getting 47%. Trump trails her by 8%.

Gerald A (949d7d) — 11/3/2015 @ 6:34 pm

In November 2007, people were predicting a Hillary win. We all know how that worked out. She is a terrible campaigner and only functions well in debates when everyone kowtows to her. While it’s true that mindless Democrats will vote for her regardless, if the GOP nominates a quality candidate (i.e. not Jeb and not Trump), Hillary will have a tough fight on her hands, and she always loses the tough fights.

While Cruz is more of a fighter, Rubio has demonstrated a real knack for fighting back and holding his ground. I sincerely doubt he’ll roll over like McCain did or be somewhat hapless like Roney. Besides, it’s been made quite apparent that Team Hillary fears Rubio more than anyone else on the stage. If it comes down to him, he could very well crush her.

Of course, granted, such thinking doesn’t take into account the whiny “he only supports me part of the time, so I’ll stay home and enable the victory of someone who never supports me at all” segment of Republican voters that helped propel Obama to victory. Nice goin’ there, guys.

Piece of advice to all of you out there copping the “I won’t vote for him” attitude: you helped make a country a mess in 2008 and 2012. Try not to do that again in 2016. Some of us actually want the country to get back on its feet and there’s no way that’ll happen with a President Hillary.

tops116 (d094f8) — 11/3/2015 @ 7:30 pm

@ Tops 116,

I held my nose and voted for McCain, whom I’d long despised for many reasons (he’s my senator), in 2008, and swore “never again”. Unlike politicians, I actually mean what I say. Rubio and Jeb Bush are in my “never again” category. None of the others on the R side are, even though I strongly dislike some of them.

I felt Romney was a very unwise choice for nominee in 2012, and he was far from my preference, but I was quite comfortable voting for him in the general, as well as donating to him and also doing some GOTV work on election day. I’ll do the same in 2016 for any R nominee who isn’t Rubio or Bush. (and I’m well aware that some of the ones I just said I’d support are as awful on immigration as Bush or Rubio – I’m not a single issue voter)

My vote is pretty much irrelevant anyway; if Arizona is in play, it’s a lost cause. As for the people in swing states (whose votes matter far more than mine), as you yourself pointed out, it’s a very real dynamic that a few percent depressed R turnout can cost an election, so nominating someone part of the party despises is a great way to ensure defeat. IMHO, part of the party despises the GOPe, and won’t vote for Bush or Rubio for that reason (plus their immigration stances). Thus, they’d lose to Clinton. We can argue all day whether or not voters like me are in the wrong regarding not showing up in the general, and hell, you may even be right, but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s going to happen, including in swing states where it matters.

Arizona CJ (0544d1) — 11/3/2015 @ 9:19 pm

11/2/2015

Prediction

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